February 2013 Climate and Hydrology Summary

February 2013 & Winter 2012-13

Tulsa: February 2013 was the 48th coldest (41.0°F; since 1905), the 12th wettest (3.18", tied 1903, 1913; since 1888), and the 27th snowiest (3.7"; since 1900) February on record.

Fort Smith: February 2013 was the 53rd warmest (44.6°F; since 1883), the 25th wettest (4.46"; since 1883), and the 22nd snowiest (4.0"; since 1884) February on record.

Fayetteville: February 2013 was the 26th coldest (38.4°F; since 1950), the 29th wettest (2.82"; since 1950), and the 27th snowiest (1.9"; since 1950) February on record.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature, and a record snowfall.

McAlester: Daily records set or tied this month include a record daily rainfall.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for February 2013 ranged from 2” to around 5”, with the highest totals in east central OK and west central AR. Far southeast OK and far northwest AR still ended the month with only 50%-90% of the normal February rainfall, though a large portion of the area did receive 125% to around 200% of the normal this month.

According to the Drought Monitor from February 26, 2013, all of eastern OK and northwest AR was in Severe to Extreme drought, except for Carroll County in Moderate drought. The rain and snow at the end of February helped reduce the drought impacts across the HSA, and for the first time since the end of July 2012, exceptional (D4) drought was not affecting eastern OK or northwest AR. Extreme drought (D3) conditions were still affecting portions of Osage, Pawnee, Creek, western Tulsa, Washington, and western Nowata Counties in eastern OK. Severe (D2) drought was present across the remainder of the area, except for Carroll County, where Moderate (D1) conditions existed.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, January 30-February 28, 2013 was the 14th wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 23rd wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 26th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Winter (December - January - February) 2012-13

Tulsa: Winter 2012-13 was the 25th warmest (41.7°F, tied 1907-08; since 1905-06) and the 55th wettest (5.57"; since 1888-89) Winter on record.

Fort Smith: Winter 2012-13 was the 16th warmest (44.7°F; since 1882-83) and the 21st wettest (11.18"; since 1882-83) Winter on record.

Fayetteville: Winter 2012-13 was the 16th warmest (39.8°F, tied 1953-54; since 1949-50) and the 23rd wettest (8.70"; since 1949-50) Winter on record.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for Winter 2012-13 ranged from 4” to near 15” northwest to southeast across the area. Overall, most of the area was 50% to around 100% of normal rainfall for the winter time period, though a few areas ended the winter with above normal precipitation.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Winter 2012-13 was the 33rd wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 40th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 44th driest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for March 2013 (issued February 28, 2013) indicates equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based primarily on short-range computer models and recent snow, rain, and corresponding soil moisture impacts on temperatures in the short term.

For the 3-month period Mar-Apr-May 2013, CPC is forecasting a greatly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued February 21, 2013). This outlook is primarily based on dynamic computer model output, with some input from statistical forecast tools and long-term trends.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through February. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue well into Spring 2013, followed by uncertain conditions in the ENSO state beyond that time.