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919
FXUS64 KEWX 011248
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
748 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low rain chances (20-40%) for the Hill Country and along and
east of Hwy 281 Saturday as another cold front moves through
the region.
- Dry weather with a slow warming trend continues into early next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
A Rangeland Fire Danger statement was issued for Kinney, Maverick,
and Val Verde counties, effective beginning at 10 AM CDT and
ending at 6 PM CDT today. North-northwesterly winds behind a front
are expected to funnel downsloping gusts along the Rio Grande
late-morning to afternoon, beginning in western Val Verde County
by around 10 AM and reaching Maverick County by the afternoon.
Sustained winds could reach 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Coupled
with relative humidity values near 20 percent and dry fuels, this
is expected to produce near-critical fire weather conditions.
Good moisture recovery and weaker winds in the evening are
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
Cool and dry weather continues in the pre-dawn hours, but uniform SE
winds overnight will bring in more humidity for a milder morning low
temperature. There shouldn`t be many low clouds at daybreak, but the
late morning should see some developing fair weather cumulus and
some mid level clouds rolling in from the north with the arrival of
a reinforcing cold front. The shortwave disturbance driving the
front is most notable crossing over the Edwards Plateau into the Rio
Grand Plains in the early afternoon, so the frontal arrival could be
a bit complicated with a stronger noted FROPA over the western
counties. Eastern counties of Central TX will see a similar timing
but with a slower frontal advancement over the Coastal Prairies
south of I-10.
The more easterly winds at the time of the front could generate a
few surface based showers and storms and there is also some dynamic
support for some elevated convection from the shortwave and mid
level moisture. The timing window is in poor confidence since there
is both a surface based and elevated level triggering of
precipitation possible. Dynamics might have been sufficient for
severe storms, but moisture limitations and only weak low level
convergence will probably keep the convection more well behaved.
Surface convection should push mostly south of our forecast area by
sunset, but the HRRR suggest some elevated echoes still popping up
over the southern half of our area in the evening. While this
potential for rain sounds exciting, the potential for good heavy
downpours on the scale of an inch of rain will be saved for the
coastal Texas counties where low level moisture and a later frontal
arrival will come into play. Coverage east of Highway 281 should be
considered 15-40% which is about what most of the model solutions
would suggest. Most of the areas that do see rain across our central
and eastern counties can expect a trace to maybe 1/4 inch if their
lucky enough. Most of the amounts in the 1/10-1/4 inch range should
fall east of a Taylor to Cuero line.
As rain chances diminish evening and overnight conditions behind the
front will not be nearly as harsh as the blustery conditions behind
the prior front. A moderate wind mainly around 10 mph will continue
through the night into the mid afternoon hours Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
Surface high pressure remains anchored over Central and East TX into
Monday while light southerly winds return underneath a building
upper ridge that will keep us in a stable and slow warming trend
through the work week. After just a couple more days with maxes
mostly in the 70s, highs trend back into mostly the 80s by midweek.
South to southeasterly winds remain intact in the lower levels, so
the first part of the week will be mostly sunny, but some morning
low clouds may begin forming again by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025
Few changes were needed from the previous forecast. VFR ceilings
are expected despite a FROPA expected this afternoon. Some -SHRA
is possible, with a PROB30 group used at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Winds
will shift from ENE to NE to northerly by later today, with
occasional gusts up and over 20 kts possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 49 74 48 / 40 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 46 73 44 / 40 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 48 74 45 / 20 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 68 45 71 46 / 40 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 79 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 70 45 72 46 / 40 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 77 47 75 46 / 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 47 75 45 / 30 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 47 72 44 / 40 10 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 75 50 74 49 / 20 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 78 52 75 49 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 10/29/2025 10:42:00 PM UTC
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