Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >
599
FXUS64 KEWX 190623
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
123 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Key messages:
- Seasonable temperatures and heat index values
- Low chances of rain mainly Coastal Plains
The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the lower Mississippi
Valley today and Friday, then to the Ohio Valley this weekend into
next week. Meanwhile, an upper level trough moves onshore the West
Coast today and Friday to over the Great Basin this weekend into
next week. This combined with low pressure in the Plains, makes for
a deepening south to southeast lower to mid level flow over South
Central Texas. The flow allows for a fetch of moisture from the Gulf
of America and Caribbean Sea. Heating and the seabreeze remain the
only forcing mechanisms for convective development. In spite of a
favorable moisture profile, showers and thunderstorms should
generally be isolated and mainly during the afternoon into early
evening hours with peak heating. The Coastal Plains remains the
favored area, though they may be possible as far west as the I-35
corridor, at times. A moist airmass combined with slowly drying soils
and vegetation makes for seasonable temperatures and mildly elevated
heat index values. Breezy/gusty daytime into evening winds should
take some of the edge off the heat and humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
High pressure will be more dominant over Central TX today to preclude
any chances for convection near the terminal sites through 30 hours.
A slightly higher pressure gradient will be over West TX to give DRT
more opportunities to see gusts to around 25 knots. Slightly lower
gusts around 20 knots will be expected along I-35 in the afternoon
and evening where the pressure gradient is not as tight. Still a
steady S/SE breeze can be expected at all areas leading to a
climatologically typical pattern favoring low MVFR stratus between
06Z and 17Z over I-35 and from 11Z to 17Z at DRT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 96 76 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 74 93 74 / 10 0 20 0
Burnet Muni Airport 94 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 10 0
Hondo Muni Airport 93 74 91 72 / 10 10 20 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 94 74 93 74 / 10 0 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 75 93 75 / 10 0 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 93 76 93 75 / 10 0 20 0
Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 94 75 / 10 0 20 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 06/16/2025 04:44:00 AM UTC
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