A Pacific storm is bringing areas of low elevation rain, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and high winds to the Northwest. Strong Santa Ana winds and very dry conditions are producing elevated to critical fire weather conditions in southern California. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas into western Tennessee. Read More >
504
FXUS64 KEWX 030513 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Key Messages:
- Low risk for an isolated strong to severe storm Wednesday and
Thursday.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue.
- Rain chances begin to increase Friday morning.
At 2 PM, a distinct dry line was currently extended northeast to
southwest along a line from Burnet to Boerne to Uvalde, demarcating
the boundary between a very moist Gulf airmass with dew points near
70F to the east and an arid airmass to the west with dew points
closer to 30F. Isolated to scattered light showers have been
intermittent over the northern I-35 corridor and northern Coastal
Plains this morning, but further development has been stunted by a
capping inversion aloft. Aircraft-sampled profiles in the vicinity
of Austin and San Antonio suggest a weak cap is in place, but with
meager convective inhibition. While cloud cover has prevented
significant destabilization, lifting could increase as the dry line
eases into the I-35 corridor. Rain chances are low (about 10 to 20
percent), but ample instability aloft could produce an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm near the I-35 corridor should any
nascent updrafts break the cap.
Later this evening, a return to more southeasterly winds and loss of
daytime heating will force the dry line back west to around Val
Verde County overnight, allowing humid air and stratus to spread
across our area again. Overnight lows range from the mid-60s in
isolated spots in the Hill Country to the low-70s along and east of
the I-35 corridor. Low clouds should begin to gradually diminish in
the morning hours and be largely give way to cirrus-filled skies by
Thursday afternoon, though low clouds could be a little more
stubborn in our northeastern counties.
Thursday may behave quite similar to Wednesday, with the dry line
again making a push for the I-35 corridor late morning to early
afternoon. Capping will most likely keep rain chances low (with PoPs
around 10 to 15 percent), and mesoscale models across the board show
very little convective development or rain, if any. However, the
moist airmass east of the dry line will be quite conditionally
unstable with around 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and the cap is expected
to erode some during the afternoon with convective inhibition
becoming rather marginal (with HREF mean SBCINH below -20 J/kg in
some instances). A subtle line of confluent winds may also set up
over the Coastal Plains, setting up a corridor of locally higher
instability and ascent. Some models show very sporadic light, low-
topped showers along this feature from the late morning to late
afternoon. Given these parameters and 0-6 km wind shear values above
50 kt, any updraft that manages to break through the cap could
become strong to severe. Any activity of this caliber would be more
favored in the late afternoon to early evening over the northern
Hill Country to northern I-35 corridor. Highs Thursday afternoon are
expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most, with highs in
the upper 90s to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Some elevated
fire weather conditions are possible over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains with relative humidities mixing below
20 percent, but winds should remain light.
The pattern begins to change Thursday night as an upper level low
over the southwestern US begins to strengthen. This should lead to
the development of a surface trough and stationary front over West
Texas during the overnight hours. Rain chances will start to
increase mainly for the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
early Friday morning closer to the front, though most of the action
will likely be later on in the long term forecast window.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
Key Messages:
- Unseasonably warm Friday, turning unseasonably cool this weekend
into early next week.
- Active pattern Friday night into Saturday morning with strong to
severe storms possible.
Moist, southerly flow in the low-levels will be in place across most
of the region Friday morning. This will likely lead to plenty of
cloud cover along with a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms for the Hill Country and for areas generally along and
north of Highway 90. The leading edge of a cold front will gradually
move into the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the
afternoon hours as south-southwest flow aloft increases in advance of
an upper level low over the desert southwest. If we can manage to see
some clearing of skies, we could see some convection develop along
the leading edge of the cold front during the late afternoon.
However, the current suite of guidance is a little reluctant to show
much development during the daytime hours. However, this will change
beginning Friday evening continuing into early Saturday morning as
the upper level low advances eastward and the cold front continues to
drop southward through the region. The global models generally agree
in showing convection develop along the front across the southern
Edwards Plateau and expand convection into the Hill Country and I-35
late Friday evening through Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms
are possible with large hail, damaging winds being the main severe
weather concerns. In addition, we can`t rule out a tornado with
locally backed winds in the lower levels just ahead of the cold
front. Rain chances begin to decrease from west to east as Saturday
morning progresses with drier air moving in behind the front.
Additional improvement is expected Saturday afternoon behind the
Pacific cold front. We will keep a low chance for showers in the
forecast along the Highway 77 corridor in case the front slows down.
Farther to the northwest near the upper low and trough axis, we can`t
rule out some showers across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau
and Hill Country. Northwest winds will also be on the increase
Saturday behind the front, with breezy conditions beginning
immediately following frontal passage and continuing through most of
Sunday afternoon. We will need to monitor the Rio Grande plains,
southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country for possible Wind Advisory
conditions (sustained 30-39 mph) Saturday afternoon into early Sunday
morning. Wind gusts to 50 mph over the mentioned areas are possible,
with gusts closer to 35-40 mph elsewhere. At this time, the strongest
winds are expected to occur Saturday afternoon into early Sunday
morning. Breezy conditions will continue Sunday, but wind speeds will
decrease around sunset as the pressure gradient eases and boundary
layer cooling cuts off mixing.
Temperatures will begin trending cooler behind the front on Saturday
with highs in the upper 60s in the Hill Country to the 80s generally
along and south of Highway 90. Lows Saturday night will dip into the
upper 30s in the Hill Country to mid and upper 40s along the Rio
Grande eastward into the coastal plains. The combination of gusty
north winds and cool overnight lows will drop wind chills into the
upper 20s to lower 30s over the Hill Country. When the winds finally
relax Sunday night into Monday morning, lows will drop into the mid
30s to lower 40s for most areas. We did opt to drop temperatures
below the NBM and would not be too surprised to see a few readings
near freezing in the Hill Country early Monday morning.
For the remainder of the forecast, a gradual warming trend is
expected along with dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
MVFR cigs are expected for KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF through at least 17Z
Thursday. Can`t rule out a brief period of high end IFR cigs at KSAT
and KSSF around 07Z and 09Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions return after
17Z Thursday for the I-35 sites. A southeasterly wind flow around 6
to 14 knots is expected to prevail overnight through mid morning on
Thursday. The wind flow may become light and variable for the I-35
terminals late morning before the return of an east-southeast flow
for the afternoon and evening. Speeds and wind gusts increase late
afternoon into the evening. For KDRT, a southeast flow stays
overnight and become light and variable by 12Z Thursday. By mid
morning, a northwest flow takes control of the KDRT area through the
mid afternoon before an easterly flow starts mid to late afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 86 71 89 72 / 20 10 20 30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 71 89 72 / 20 10 20 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 71 92 72 / 10 10 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 84 69 88 68 / 20 10 20 40
Del Rio Intl Airport 96 70 95 72 / 0 10 0 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 84 71 87 70 / 20 10 20 40
Hondo Muni Airport 92 69 92 71 / 10 10 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 71 90 72 / 10 10 10 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 73 86 74 / 20 0 20 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 10 20
Stinson Muni Airport 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 04/01/2025 04:24:22 AM UTC
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