A Pacific storm is bringing areas of low elevation rain, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and high winds to the Northwest. Strong Santa Ana winds and very dry conditions are producing elevated to critical fire weather conditions in southern California. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas into western Tennessee. Read More >
246 FXUS64 KEWX 171642 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Mid-level ridging is present on GOES 19 water vapor imagery early this morning. This will result in continued muggy mornings with low clouds and increasingly warmer afternoons both today and Friday. With a rather strong capping inversion in place between 850-700mb, storms are unlikely through the entire short term forecast period. Expect breezy southeasterly winds to continue again today, along with temperatures climbing closer to the 90 degree mark. By late Friday, high clouds will start to filter in from the west, as southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next storm system that will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. More on that in the long term discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Key Messages: - Level 1 of 5 risk for isolated severe storms across the southern Edwards Plateau Friday night - Level 2 of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms Saturday night across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country, and Level 1 of 5 risk for the I-35 corridor - Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary risks An upper level trough is forecast to dig south into the Four Corners and northwest Mexico Friday through Saturday, then move east into the Plains and Texas Saturday night, eventually dragging a cold front through the area Easter morning. The dry line is forecast to become active late Friday afternoon and evening to the northwest and across Mexico as a lead shortwave in the southwest flow aloft ejects out. There is a 20-50% chance of both surface based and elevated upstream convection making into portions of the northern Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. We will watch for the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm or two Friday night across Val Verde, and Edwards counties, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. SPC has placed this area in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms. Farther east into the I-35 corridor, an uptick in precipitation chances takes places during the day Saturday, but capping should limit the threat to mainly shower activity. Coverage of showers and storms this far south Friday night through Saturday is forecast to be isolated to widely scattered. The better chances for more organized convection looks to arrive Saturday night into early Easter Sunday, as the main forcing ahead of the upper level trough and cold front arrive. We are currently forecasting a 60-80% chance of showers and storms during this time across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor, with these chances continue to trend up. Again, we will have to watch for the potential for isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms Saturday night across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country, with damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. SPC has placed this area in a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms. A weakening trend in the storms may occur into Easter morning near the I-35 corridor and east into the Coastal Plains, as the front undercuts the convection and reaches a more stable region. Most global ensembles have the precipitation clearing east of the I-35 corridor by the afternoon. Precipitation amounts Friday night through Sunday look to average 1/10-1/2 of an inch along and south of the U.S. 90/I-10 corridor and 1/2" to 1 inch north, with isolated higher amounts. There are some outliers, with a 10% chance of amounts exceeding 1 1/2 inches through the northern Hill Country and into the northern I-35 corridor near Austin. Temperatures Easter Sunday are tricky, with global models potentially too warm and not handling well the strength of the shallow cool airmass this far south. The current forecast is indicating upper 70s to lower 80s for highs Easter Sunday across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to mid to upper 80s along the Rio Grande, but these may trend down. A return flow develops Monday and Monday night, with a low chance of showers across the Coastal Plains. An active southern jet stream brings additional chances for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday, however confidence in timing and placement of showers and storms is low confidence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Conditions return to VFR for the start of the period with gusty south to southeast wind through Friday. Sustained wind from 10-20 mph with gusts from 20-30 mph will be common through the period with the strongest wind over I-35 terminals. MVFR ceilings return late tonight around 05-06Z for I-35 terminals and reach DRT Friday morning around 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 88 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 67 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 87 67 88 69 / 0 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 67 90 69 / 0 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 90 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...76 Aviation...27
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 04/16/2025 05:11:09 PM UTC