Extremely critical fire weather concerns for portions of the southern High Plans as strong wind and very dry conditions could result in rapid spread of any fires. Meanwhile, severe thunderstorms are expected once again across areas of the Central and Southern Plains, then spreading in the Mississippi Valley regions on Monday. Damaging winds, very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible. Read More >
257
FXUS64 KEWX 290626
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
126 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A pair of cold fronts to bring increased rain and storm chances
mid to late week and cooler temperatures.
- Isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain remain possible
in the days ahead; strongest signal for excessive rainfall will
be Thursday night.
- Drier and cooler for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
A low amplitude upper level ridge has the flow over Texas nearly
zonal tonight. The low level flow across our CWA is generally from
the southeast. The airmass remains warm and moist. Temperatures are
from the middle 70s to middle 80s, and dewpoints are in the 70s.
There is a cold front moving through North Texas near Dallas/Fort
Worth. The upper level flow will remain generally from the west
through the short term period. The cold front will move through our
CWA during the day today. This will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms moving from north to south through the day. Severe
parameters and PW values are all high enough that we could see some
strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. We have a
Level 1 risk for both severe storms and excessive rain. All severe
modes are possible with large hail the most likely. Cooler air will
begin to move in behind the front, and it will make enough southward
progress for highs to only reach the mid 70s to low 80s in the Hill
Country and northern I-35 Corridor. Cooler air won`t make farther
south and highs will again be in the 90s. Tonight there will be
around a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms, so most places
will be dry. Cooler air will continue to filter in. Lows Thursday
will be mostly in the 60s. The front will stall across South Texas
and keep the weather unsettled Thursday. An upper shortwave trough
will move through the pattern. Showers and thunderstorms will again
be possible. A surge of moisture will move in on the cool side of
the front increasing PW values. Locally heavy rain will be possible
again, and we have a Level 2 risk for excessive rain Thursday. There
will also be another Level 1 risk for severe thunderstorms
particularly over the western part of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the long
term period Thursday night. The upper shortwave trough will have its
strongest influence during the overnight period. and this will be
most likely time of excessive rainfall. It looks like the highest
rain totals will be across the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country, and northern I-35 Corridor. Friday another push of cooler
air will push the frontal boundary out of the region. There may be
one last round of convection pushing from west to east. By Saturday
dry weather will return. And along with it, cooler temperatures.
Lows Saturday morning will range from the middle 40s over the
Southern Edwards Plateau to the middle 50s over the Coastal Plains.
Highs Saturday will be from the middle 60s to the low 70s. Sunday
morning will be a couple of degrees cooler and then we will begin to
warm back up. Dry weather will continue through the end of the
period with warming temperatures. Highs will be back to well above
normal by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Ceilings have already fallen to MVFR at AUS, SAT, SSF as of this
writing and are expected to linger through much of this forecast
period. A FROPA will occur between 17Z and 20Z at all sites.
Additionally, continued haze will be noted before the FROPA clears
it out. Some IFR ceilings are expected through late morning, but
windshield wipering back and forth between IFR and MVFR would be
no surprise. Continued with the PROB30 for -TSRA 18/19Z through
22/23Z this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 81 66 78 62 / 60 30 40 80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 66 80 62 / 50 30 40 80
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 66 82 63 / 40 20 30 70
Burnet Muni Airport 76 63 73 57 / 70 30 50 90
Del Rio Intl Airport 94 72 82 68 / 20 20 30 80
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 65 75 59 / 60 30 50 80
Hondo Muni Airport 91 67 83 65 / 40 20 20 70
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 66 81 63 / 50 20 30 70
La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 68 83 65 / 40 20 30 60
San Antonio Intl Airport 88 68 82 65 / 40 20 20 70
Stinson Muni Airport 91 69 85 66 / 30 10 20 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 04/29/2026 05:46:00 AM UTC
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