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940
FXUS64 KEWX 180551
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Thick cloud cover persists along the Rio Grande plains, while mainly
scattered clouds are noted farther east into the I-35 corridor and
Hill Country. Early afternoon temperatures are generally in the 70s
across most of the region. A few light radar echoes are noted across
the Rio Grande plains. With moisture levels higher in this region
and perhaps some weak lift embedded in the southwest flow aloft, we
will keep a low chance for showers in the forecast for this evening
and tonight along the Rio Grande. For tomorrow morning, a few of
these showers may develop a little farther east into the southern
Edwards Plateau. Clouds will be on the increase from west to east
across the region on Friday leading to another day of fairly mild
temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
Some additional lift embedded in the southwest flow aloft may bring
a slightly better chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm to
the Rio Grande plains on Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Saturday an upper level shortwave trough will move across west TX and
stationary front over our western counties. This will bring a slight
chance for showers or thunderstorms to the Coastal Plains and Rio
Grande Plains. The shortwave will move away from the region Sunday
and upper ridging will build in. The upper ridge will dominate our
weather through the rest of the long term period. Dry weather will
settle in and lead to a warming trend. Highs will increase a couple
of degrees each day over the weekend and start of next week reaching
a maximum by Tuesday. Then they will level off in the middle 80s to
lower 90s. This is well above normal, but short of records.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Models continue to signal limited moisture to generate showers so
will continue with a stable forecast despite persistent very light
echoes along the Rio Grande. There is enough low moisture for MVFR
CIGs near DRT, and will continue to overnight to midday blanket of
MVFR skies there. The continued drying trends over I-35 terminals
have us keeping away from MVFR skies through the TAF periods despite
the NAM and GFS putting some in for 09Z Saturday. Will take another
look at that 09Z period in the 12Z update this morning and lower the
CIGs if necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  85  58  87 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  85  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  86  61  88 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            58  81  58  83 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  83  68  84 /  20  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  83  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             63  84  62  84 /  10  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        58  83  57  86 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  83  63  85 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  85  64  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...04
Aviation...18



                

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