682
FXUS64 KEWX 171120
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
- Periods of locally heavy rainfall and the compounding effects
from multiple rounds of storms the past couple of days is likely
to result in a continued flash flood threat through at least
Friday morning, particularly over the western Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains.
- Up to considerable flash flood impacts remain ongoing at least
through the end of this latest round of rainfall
- Up to Moderate to major flooding are ongoing/forecast for the
Pedernales, Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces
River Basins.
- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to
seek higher ground if necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Latest multi-radar multi-sensor presentation shows light to moderate
rain with isolated to scattered pockets of heavy rain mainly
associated with thunderstorms. This trend is forecast to continue
tonight with an uptick overnight through Friday morning. The low
level jet is increasing with precipitable water coming in at 1.99
inches from the 00Z (Friday) Del Rio sounding and the SPC
mesoanalysis as of 03Z Friday, shows precipitable water values
ranging from 2 to 2.2 inches over parts of the Rio Grande Plains,
southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country. The Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) responsible of multiple rounds of heavy rain
in combination with tropical moisture for the past several days is
now over the Pecos area. The MCV is forecast to push to the north
for the next 24 hours and favoring heavy rain rates especially
across the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and the
Rio Grande Plains through at least Friday morning and where a Level
4 of 4 risk of Excessive Rainfall exists. On top of that, the
atmosphere supports spin up tornadoes as the 03Z VAD Wind Profile of
the DRT radar shows surface to 1 KM value of 243 m2/s2. All of this
to say that the night into the Friday morning period looks to be
another active one with heavy rain leading to flash flooding and
continuing with river flooding. Models are indicating new rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible over a larger area with isolated
pockets up to 8 inches possible. This continues a situation with
up to ongoing considerable impacts from flash flooding and
moderate to major river flooding. For those areas that have
received 10+ inches of rainfall within the past 2 days, additional
0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash
flooding since the soil is saturated and runoff ends up in creeks,
rivers, and arroyos. Flood Watch remains in effect from a Llano
to Castroville to Pearsall and points west through noon Friday.
So for the next 12 hours or so, here are safety messaging lines we
will like to pass along:
Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally
dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a
guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these
conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county
officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be
impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can
change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to
receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in
the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near
a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if
needed.
When this is going to be over? The weather conditions are forecast
to improve midday on Friday across most of the Hill Country,
southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande while areas along and east
of Highway 281 stay dry. There is a low end chance for showers and
storms to affect Val Verde County in the afternoon with dry
conditions elsewhere. However, flooding and river flooding are
likely to be ongoing for several river basins and we urge residents
and visitors to be weather aware and following local officials for
latest information on street closures, river impacts, and other
weather related situations.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Dry weather conditions continue into the weekend for the most part
with isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm
activity forecast to affect portions of Val Verde County on Saturday
afternoon as a mid level trough sits over that area. By Sunday, an
upper level high takes control across South Central Texas with
mostly sunny skies across the region and high temperatures back into
the 90s for most locations and upper 80s across the southern Edwards
Plateau. The work week looks dry as an upper level ridge remains in
control with clouds developing in the evening through the overnight
periods and dissipating mid to late mornings for partly cloudy to
mostly sunny days and highs in the mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Prevailing MVFR ceilings this morning, which should show some
improvement as the day progresses. SE winds around 10 kts with
gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon. VCSH in at KDRT this morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 91 76 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 76 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 89 74 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 88 75 90 75 / 30 10 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 89 74 90 73 / 0 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 10 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 76 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CDT today for TXZ171-183>190-202>204-
217>219-228.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...99 (WFO MFL)
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 07/17/2026 02:18:00 AM UTC
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