700
FXUS64 KEWX 170543
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light freeze forecast this morning across portions of the
southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
Coastal Plains.
- Near critical fire weather conditions today for portions of the
Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35
corridor today.
- A warming trend throughout this week brings temperatures near or
above daily record highs Friday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Tuesday morning is on track to be our most chilly since February
for many locations in South-Central Texas under clearing skies and
light winds... a different flavor of cold compared to Sunday
night`s windiness. A light freeze is expected for generally rural
and low- lying areas mainly in the northern half of the CWA. A few
low-lying spots may briefly dip below 28F. Surface high pressure
will be shifting east today, so southerly flow should return after
sunrise and kickstart a warming trend. Highs this afternoon are
forecast to reach the 60s for most of South-Central Texas, with a
few in the low 70s in the Rio Grande Plains. Winds will be breezy
as the pressure gradient associated with the western flanks of the
outgoing high pressure moves across the area. This combined with
dry air persisting over the region is forecast to produce near-
critical fire weather conditions along and west of the I-35
corridor.
The southerly flow will be in place long enough to usher the gradual
return of moist Gulf air Tuesday night, resulting in a cool but not
quite as cold night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds aloft
between 700-850mb become more westerly on Wednesday, which allows
warmer plateau air to spread into our area. Highs Wednesday will be
back in the mid 70s to low 80s under fair skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
A robust ridge of high pressure is taking along the Pacific coast of
CONUS. With a highly amplified upper-level pattern continuing CONUS,
we will be steadily swapping out our unseasonably cold weather to
start the week with unseasonably warm weather to end the week. A
warming trend and dry weather will continue as this strong ridge
gradually moves east towards our area. The core of this ridge will
still be to our west this weekend, but enough of the warm air
associated with it will be spanning across South-Central Texas to
push daytime highs into the 90s starting Friday and continuing
through the weekend. This would bring us back to near record
territory for daily highs.
Deterministic and ensemble mean outputs indicate that a weak cold
front may approach our area early next week, but the continued
presence of the nearby ridge does not favor significant cooling or
rain chances at this time. Rain chances through this week remain
near zero percent across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
High clouds will decrease after the next 3 or 4 hours with no low
ceilings expected for the next 30 hours. Light NE winds will
become southerly during the daytime over I-35 with top speeds
maybe 10 to 15 knots. Farther west, DRT will see a faster return
to SE winds and the midday winds gusting to between 20 and 25
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026
Southerly flow will expand across South-Central Texas Tuesday.
However, dry air persists with relative humidity values of 10-20
percent across the region during the daytime following slightly
improved but still poor overnight moisture recovery. Breezy
southerly winds will be strongest along and west of the I-35
corridor where 20 ft sustained winds of 10-20 mph are forecast
this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for those
areas from 10 AM through 8 PM Tuesday night for these near-
critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Critical fire weather conditions persist through early evening. Wind
speeds remain breezy (10 to 20 mph) with gusts of 20 to 35 mph as of
1 PM. Relative humidity range from the teens to mid 20s. The
winds are forecast to subside mid to late afternoon areawide to 15
mph or less with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The Red Flag Warning in
effect for all of South Central Texas expires at 8 PM this
evening.
Dry conditions remain through the rest of the week but do expect
returning southerly winds starting Tuesday. However, humidity levels
stay low and reaching the teens and 20s percentiles for most of the
day on Tuesday. Southern winds of 10 to 20 mph are forecast for
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. With
near critical fire weather conditions in place, we are issuing a
Fire Danger Statement for those locations mentioned above from 10 AM
through 8 PM Tuesday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 43 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 42 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 66 44 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 70 47 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 67 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 66 42 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 42 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 66 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 68 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 03/17/2026 01:59:00 AM UTC
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