Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies through Monday. Flash flooding is possible, especially in and around burn scars and in areas of steep terrain. Heat will persist across the Central U.S. early this week, spreading into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic later this week. Read More >
025
FXUS64 KEWX 032350
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
- Low to medium (10-50%) rain/storm chances across portions of the
region today thru Saturday with isolated PoPs most days going
into next week.
- Above average temperatures continue with elevated afternoon
heat indices, along and east of the I-35 corridor into the Rio
Grande Plains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Have elected to expand and increased the PoPs across the region
during the rest of this afternoon into this evening given the
latest radar, observational, and short term model guidance trends.
Latest guidance seems to favor the I-10 corridor with the best
chances as we go into this evening. Some stronger storms will be
capable of locally heavier downpours with up to a quick inch of
rain. Additionally, there is high DCAPE across the western 2/3rds
of the region within the region where cloud cloud is the lowest
and temperatures are hottest. Gusty winds with microbursts may
occur within any stronger storms within this region. Rain and
storm chances then may shift back north tonight into early Friday
across Burnet/llano/Williamson counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
A TUTT low over the Central Gulf is fusing into the weakening
remnants of Edouard, allowing for some of the mid level dynamics
to be preserved while the lower level features to continue
dissolving over North TX. The mid level features, as depicted in
the H7 and H5 maps are stretching into a N-S oval shape, running
generally from Dallas to Houston. This shear axis is drifting SW
today as the TUTT low continues drifting west. This puts Central
TX in the cross-hairs of some of the best rain chances associated
from the remnant low. That only means our forecast PoPs are bumped
to 50 percent, but considering our rain forecasts from a few days
ago, that`s certainly a welcome trend for areas that are beginning
to show more vulnerability to wildfires.
Todays rain chances are being locally suppressed by an abundance
of mid to high cloudiness over Central TX, leading to lower
temperatures and a weak convergence zone that is drifting out and
away from a large core of moderate to heavy rain under the center
of circulation. That convergence zone will eventually get away
from the cloud canopy over Austin, and we think that will lead to
more deep convection forming near the Austin metro area late today
into the evening hours. PWat values are already exceeding 2 inches
and the GFS/NAM PWat fields for 00Z Friday suggest a few pockets
of PWat values up to 2.4 inches. This plus, a slow expected storm
motion should provide a favorable setup for locally heavy rain
amounts up to 3 inches late today into tonight, mainly along and
NE of a line from Llano to New Braunfels to Hallettsville. Overall
QPF values in the forecast are quite low and this is intentional.
While the 3 inch rain potential could be problematic for
flooding, the coverage of the higher rainfall amounts is expected
to be isolated. The early morning core rain potential should be
severely reduced, possibly non-existent as MRMS estimated rainfall
over a small area between Fairfield and Buffalo topped out at
only 7 inches, as compared to the 17+ inch bulls-eye that occurred
the prior night. So even if a small core rain were to be possible
tonight there`s a good chance it would fall just east of the
forecast area.
Fridays rainfall chances will continue trending west and south
closer to the I-10 corridor From Junction to San Antonio to La
Grange. The H7 to H5 pattern is expected to unravel a bit faster,
so the concentration of better rain chances will be more
uncertain, leading to more broad rain chances but lower potential
for heavy downpours. As we saw over Central TX today, there should
still be a fair amount of cloud cover, so the best news is that we
should get a nice break from the oppressive near 100 degree
temperature streak that`s carried over from August. Highs should
be capped at the mid 90s for the I-35 corridor, and a few areas of
the Hill County could fail to even reach 90. Sadly, the heat index
values will not chance a whole lot due to the pooling of higher
dew point temperatures that will not mix out in the daytime as
easily.
Friday night`s rain chances will probably be more rooted in the
evening and pre-dawn periods as reduced moisture pooling and mid-
level shear leads us back to more diurnally driven rain chances.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Despite the dissolving of Edouard`s moisture and shear aloft by
Saturday, the trailing TUTT Low is moving onshore into Deep South
TX and the Coastal Bend by this time to bring one more day of
slightly elevated rain chances. Pooled moisture in the mid levels
(PWat values near 2.2 inches) and some more weak mid-upper level
shear might be just enough to bring one more day of low CHC
category PoPs at least in the daytime. This also should curb high
temperatures, but probably not as much as we expect it to on
Friday. Sunday`s rain prospects look even more isolated, because
by then, the TUTT circulation will have passed to the SW into
Mexico, leaving only the moist easterly mid level winds. High
temperatures will continue trending back toward triple digits, but
our blended guidances continue to show the I-35 corridor remaining
below triple digits. By Monday, the upper ridging should further
isolate rain chances, but not completely eliminate them. The ridge
center over Arkansas means a deep onshore wind extends up to the
H5 level and that pattern is expected to hold up through the
middle of next week. So with compliments from Edouard, the season
of triple digit heat wave have come to an end for all but the Rio
Grande Plains. The elevated heat indices are not expected to go
away as quietly, and some 100-105 values each day will be in
consideration throughout the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
VFR CIGs prevail for now at all TAF sites. Remnants of TD Edouard
continue to affect I-35 terminals namely KAUS and at times
KSAT/KSSF. Several outflow boundaries have pushed through this
evening thus feel the threat for any convection for KAUS is over
for now. Model guidance however continues to indicate convection
forming around 09 to 12Z range. Have added in PROB30s to account
for this. Similarly, models are suggesting a period of higher
winds and higher gusts out of the southeast (up to 25 knots)
beginning around 02Z and ending by 06Z. Additionally, MVFR CIGs
are forecast for all I-35 TAF sites from 08Z and continuing until
16/17Z. For KAUS there is the possibility of IFR CIGs as well.
Have added in a TEMPO for early morning (13/15Z) otherwise VFR
CIGs should return to all I-35 sites by 17Z. For KDRT VFR CIGs are
expected throughout this forecast package with higher
southeasterly winds (gusts up to 25 knots) arriving sometime
around 05Z and ending by 09Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 94 75 96 / 30 40 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 94 75 96 / 30 40 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20
Burnet Muni Airport 75 90 73 94 / 30 40 10 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 81 101 77 98 / 0 0 10 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 92 74 95 / 40 40 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 77 97 73 96 / 10 10 10 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 94 74 96 / 20 30 10 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 94 75 95 / 30 40 10 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 79 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 30
Stinson Muni Airport 78 98 76 98 / 20 20 10 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...CJM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 09/04/2026 03:24:00 AM UTC
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