An atmospheric river will bring heavy rainfall to lower elevations of California this week, and heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada mountains. Flash flooding, some of which may be locally considerable, will be a concern on the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada mountains through Tuesday. Landslides, rockfalls and mudslides are possible in the Southern California mountains. Read More >
899
FXUS64 KEWX 250503
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm weather continues through the week, with daily
max records possible through Saturday
- A strong cold front arrives late Sunday
- A near widespread freeze is possible Tuesday morning
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Fog forecasting has been a challenge this week. Given the very
warm and moist conditions at low levels, we`ll assume a similarly
difficult to predict scenario where areas of fog are possible but
not necessarily inevitable. Light winds and high dew points in the
50s to low 60s could support fog just about anywhere in the CWA and
even some dense fog. Will favor persistence and avoid the mention
of dense fog, given only a few areas seeing it in the CWA this
morning.
The upper ridge will maintain a strong amplitude over TX today but
gets flattened a bit by Friday. Rather than having a moderating
impact on our area temperatures, the low level winds will become
more southwest, bringing hot Mexican plateau air into the region
to make for what should be the hottest days of the week if not
month for Friday afternoon. Lower amounts of moisture in the air
could help with lower overnight minimums however, and perhaps
we`ll see less fog.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Another day of near record high temperatures is expected Saturday,
but less of a SW component in low level winds should have the
maxes fall a few degrees shy of those expected Friday. As a polar
trough approaches Sunday, the surface winds should become stronger
onshore, leading to more daytime cloudiness, lower maxes, and
perhaps an episode of morning drizzle. This polar trough is quite
sharp over the northern plains states with strong fetch of
Canadian air to move into state late Sunday. A brief round of
showers could announce the front as it reaches South TX, and this
may be the last rain day of the year. Little or no rains are
expected over the Hill Country or Edwards Plateau. Strong winds
should follow the front mainly in the overnight hours, but gusty
and dry conditions could lead to elevated fire weather concerns
during the midday hours Monday. With dprog/dt trends on the polar
trough becoming more sharp there could be an opportunity for the
coldest min temps of the season by Tuesday. Roughly half the
forecast area has yet to see a first freeze, so we may see this
cold air mass finish out our Freeze Warning program for the cold
season either Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Temperatures should
recover back to more seasonably cool by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Low stratus is forecast to gradually develop through 09Z across
the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country, spreading
westward to the Rio Grande 09Z-12Z Wednesday. HREF is indicating a
70-100% chance of LIFR ceilings developing at most locations,
including at AUS and SAT. 00Z HREF probabilities of visibilities
less than 1SM have increased slightly from the 12Z run, around 50%
at AUS and 70% at SAT. Conditions are forecast to slowly improve
15Z-19Z Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Record High Temperatures
12-25 12-26 12-27
Austin Bergstrom 91 (1955) 85 (2016) 82 (2024)
Austin Camp Mabry 90 (1955) 84 (2016) 79 (2021/1954)
San Antonio 90 (1955) 83 (2016/2008) 82 (2005)
Del Rio 87 (1955) 80 (2024) 84 (2005)
Record High Minimum Temperatures
12-25 12-26 12-27
Austin Bergstrom 68 (2016) 73 (2015) 68 (1971)
Austin Camp Mabry 68 (2016) 70 (2016) 67 (2021)
San Antonio 67 (2016) 71 (2015) 68 (1971)
Del Rio 63 (2015) 60 (2021) 65 (2019)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 62 79 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 60 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 60 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 60 79 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 63 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 64 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...76
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
No recent Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
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