Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies through Monday. Flash flooding is possible, especially in and around burn scars and in areas of steep terrain. Heat will persist across the Central U.S. early this week, spreading into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic later this week. Read More >
324
FXUS64 KEWX 030637
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
137 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
- Low to medium (10-45%) rain/storm chances across portions of the
region each day.
- Above average temperatures continue with elevated afternoon heat
indices, along and east of the I-35 corridor into the Rio Grande
Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Edouard`s low-level circulation located to the northwest of Lufkin,
Texas continues it`s drift to the north-northwest but is expected to
dissipate in the next 24 hours. Edouard`s mid-level vorticity (spin)
and moisture envelope will become less focused but does spread out
as it unravels with time and drifts south-southwestward through
Friday. This afternoon and evening looks to have a similar or
slightly lower footprint of coverage as yesterday with PoPS in the
10 to 25% range for the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of
San Marcos, and across the Coastal Plains. Friday afternoon offers a
slightly better chance (20-40%) and a greater coverage area across
the region as that mid-level energy mentioned above centers more
atop South-Central Texas. Any isolated heavier downpours, will be
capable of producing an inch or little more in a short time.
Yesterday`s afternoon highs were slightly higher than the consensus
guidance but dew points were able to efficiently mix out to keep the
peak heat indices at or below 108 degrees across majority of the
region. For today, I`ll adjust slightly above the NBM and other
consensus aids to reflect a similar outcome. This would allow highs
to range mainly from the upper 90s into the 100 to 102 degree range
across the region, while locations near and along the Rio Grande
climb into the 103 to 105 degree range. With enough mixing of the
dew points, the peak heat indices will mostly range from the 103 to
108 degree range but a few locales across the Coastal and/or Rio
Grande Plains may briefly exceed 108 degrees. Friday`s afternoon
highs and highest heat indices look to trend a little lower in
comparison to today. Warm and humid overnight conditions are
expected with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
This weekend and through much of next week looks to primarily see
any low to medium (15-45%) rain and storm chances become generally
confined to the areas along and east of the I-35 corridor through
the coastal plains during each afternoon and evening in association
with the sea breeze. The sea breeze may be slightly boosted by the
help from moisture and weak mid-level energy with an inverted trough
that slides west across the northern Gulf waters. Saturday could
be a little exception, where lingering mid-level energy from
Friday could allow for isolated shower or storm activity to pop
up across the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
Otherwise, the temperatures remain generally persistent featuring
afternoon highs from the low 90s to around 100 degrees and
overnight lows in the 70s. Winds will trend light to moderate from
the southeast with slightly gustier conditions near and after
sunset with the sea breeze.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Low cloud development is noted over the middle Texas coast and
hi-res model forecast soundings continue to favor MVFR cigs for
the I-35 corridor early this morning. We have gone with prevailing
MVFR cigs at SAT and SSF along with a TEMPO group at AUS. While
there could be some potential for low clouds near DRT in the
12-14Z time frame, we will not mention any clouds as confidence is
low at this time. Some isolated afternoon convection will be
possible near AUS late this afternoon, but coverage is too low to
mention at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 101 77 97 75 / 20 20 30 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 77 96 73 / 20 20 30 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 76 97 73 / 10 10 30 20
Burnet Muni Airport 99 75 93 73 / 30 30 30 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 99 76 94 75 / 30 30 30 10
Hondo Muni Airport 101 75 98 74 / 10 0 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 100 76 96 72 / 20 20 30 20
La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 77 96 74 / 20 30 40 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 101 78 97 75 / 10 10 20 20
Stinson Muni Airport 102 77 99 75 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...Platt
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 08/29/2026 06:26:00 AM UTC
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