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Forecast Discussion

                        
819
FXUS64 KEWX 101059
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms can be expected today mainly over
  the coastal plains into the I-35 corridor.

- A warming trend continues through much of the week with
  afternoon heat indices on the rise.

- Rain chances trend upward late this weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper level ridge covers most of the southern part of the
country with weak anticyclonic flow over TX at 500 mb. The low
level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in
place across South-Central Texas. Temperatures and dewpoints were
both in the 70s this morning. Little change in the overall
weather pattern is anticipated today, with isolated showers and
storms possible for areas mainly along and east of the I-35/I-37
corridors. A slight strengthening of the upper ridge will make
storm coverage a bit less Thursday.

Daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s along with continued
humid conditions thanks to recent rains and southeast winds will
help push heat index values into the 100 to near 105 degree range
over the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The mid and upper level high pressure will persist into the
upcoming weekend, but will eventually begin to be displaced
southward as westerly flow aloft increases in advance of an upper
trough over the northern Rockies. This weakening of high pressure
along with afternoon heating should be enough to allow rain
chances to start a slow increase for mainly late this weekend into
early next week. Daytime highs in the 90s and humid conditions
will still be able to produce afternoon heat index values in the
100 to near 105 degree range into early next week, but we should
stay below heat advisory criteria.

The medium range models are also showing some increasing agreement
in a cold front dropping southward into the region early next
week. While the strength of the northerly winds in the GFS looks
a little overdone, there is some support for a cold front to drop
southward into the region based on the broad, upper trough over
the central and southern plains states. Timing of the front
remains in question, but would tend to favor a Tuesday arrival
closer to the ECMWF solution. Both models are showing good chances
for significant rainfall Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue at all terminals until around
noon. Then VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and
evening. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, in the low 20 kts
range. Low ceilings will redevelop late this evening and last
through the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  76  93  76 /  20   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  76  93  76 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  77  94  77 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             91  76  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  76  93  76 /  20   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  77  94  77 /  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  77  93  77 /  20   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  77  94  77 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05