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Forecast Discussion

                        
303
FXUS64 KEWX 200526
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
and forecast to remain mainly across the coastal plains, parts of
the I-35 corridor including the San Antonio area and southern part
of the Rio Grande. This activity is occurring along and ahead of a
stationary boundary that stretches from the southern Edwards Plateau
to the coastal plains. The shower and thunderstorm activity has been
enhanced by outflow boundaries moving all directions. Based on
earlier storms and rainfall accumulations (as high as 2 to 5
inches), stronger showers and storms are capable of producing heavy
downpours which could lead to minor street flooding including areas
with poor drainage.

The stationary boundary is forecast to stay over the local area this
evening into Saturday with a slight push to the north of its current
location. Showers and storms come to an end mid evening for most
areas. Can`t rule out a shower or two across the coastal plains
overnight into Saturday morning. Overnight lows range from the low
to upper 70s.

Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday
morning across the coastal plains with partly cloudy skies across
South Central Texas for the afternoon period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are anticipated across the coastal plains on
Saturday afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and where elevated
moisture resides. Can`t rule out a few pockets of heavy rain across
the coastal plains, otherwise, dry and hot with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and up to 101 degrees along the Rio Grande. Saturday`s
evening looks quiet with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Next week`s forecast continues to remain hopeful for wetter and
cooler than normal conditions. We will be watching to the northwest
Sunday afternoon and night as a disturbance in the upper level trough
and weak cold front move south, generating showers and storms. Some
of this activity could make in into the southern Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country during this time. There remains a lot of uncertainty
with how far south the front makes it Monday, with mesoscale
convective influences possibly coming into play. In general we
continue to show scattered type coverage of rain chances Monday
across all of South Central Texas.

The upper level trough axis Tuesday through Thursday moves closer to
the area, potentially sharpening right over the forecast area mid to
late week. A lot remains to be seen as far as details with timing of
disturbances and mesoscale boundaries, which in turn leads low
confidence this far out in details on placement of higher rainfall
amounts as well as timing of precipitation. The pattern certainly
isn`t one we have seen in recent summers, and does favor odds tilted
towards wetter and cooler than average conditions.

In general, ensemble data indicates high odds (>70%) for average
rainfall amounts of at least 1 inch across almost the entire area
next week, and medium odds (40-60%) of greater than 2 inches of
rainfall through portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and
Coastal Plains. With tropical precipitable water values of 2-2.25"
pooled over the area mid week there is always the potential for much
higher amounts in localized areas.

With the more active pattern comes increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures in the forecast. Seasonable highs are expected Sunday
from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees cooling to the mid 80s to low
90s each day Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period with few to sct
pockets of mid and high level clouds. Winds remain light below 10
knots with the variable conditions overnight turning more east-
southeasterly this afternoon and south-southeasterly into and
through tonight. KDRT trends generally out of the east-southeast
during the entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 98 76 96 75 / 0 0 20 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 74 95 75 / 0 0 20 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 74 96 75 / 0 0 20 10
Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 94 73 / 0 0 30 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 102 80 100 79 / 0 0 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 94 74 / 0 0 20 10
Hondo Muni Airport 98 74 96 75 / 10 0 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 96 73 95 74 / 0 0 20 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 74 94 75 / 10 0 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 97 76 96 77 / 10 0 20 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Brady


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