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Forecast Discussion

                        
237
FXUS64 KEWX 041101
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
501 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, with more seasonable temperatures forecast for the rest of
  the work week into the weekend and again early next week.

- Brief cooldown Thursday morning with some locations across the
  Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau getting to the lower 30s

- Slight chances of rain return on Monday across the Rio Grande,
  southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The cold front that moved across the local area throughout the day
and part of the evening yesterday (Tuesday), is along the middle
and east Texas coast as of midnight/early Wednesday. In the wake
of the front, north winds are forecast to prevail across the local
area throughout the day on Wednesday with gusty conditions
ranging from 20 to 25 mph. Highs are forecast to range from the
lower to mid 60s across the Hill Country to lower 70s across the
Rio Grande under sunny skies for most of the time.

Clear skies and light winds out of the north are forecast for
Thursday morning with lows ranging from the lower 30s across
portions of the Hill Country to upper 30s and lower 40s across the
Coastal Plains and Rio Grande. As the day goes on, temperatures are
forecast to climb into the mid 60s over most locations across the
Hill Country with upper 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A warming trend is in store for the latter part of the week into the
weekend as an upper level ridge dominates our region and at the
surface, a ridging pattern keeps the local area under a southerly
flow. This likely result in above normal temperatures across the
local area starting on Friday with forecast highs in the mid 70s for
two-thirds of South Central Texas. By the upcoming weekend,
temperatures are forecast to be warmer with highs in the 70s and
lower 80s.

Rain chances return for some areas of South Central Texas next
Monday as an upper level disturbance moves across the northern part
of Mexico into the four corners region. At this time, there is a big
different between the GFS and ECMWF solutions as far as the
probability for rain and locations. The GFS stays dry while the
ECMWF brings slight rain chances over parts of the Rio Grande,
southern Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country. The National
Blend Model solution agrees with the ECMWF and the extended
forecast reflects those outputs. Some lingering showers could last
into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR flying conditions expected through Thursday with any clouds AOA
FL035. Northerly winds increase to 10 to 16 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs
this morning most areas, decrease to less than 7 KTs this evening,
then shift to northwesterly on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  38  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  38  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  37  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  36  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  38  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  36  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  37  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  40  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...04