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Forecast Discussion

                        
246
FXUS64 KEWX 171642
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Mid-level ridging is present on GOES 19 water vapor imagery early
this morning. This will result in continued muggy mornings with low
clouds and increasingly warmer afternoons both today and Friday.
With a rather strong capping inversion in place between 850-700mb,
storms are unlikely through the entire short term forecast period.
Expect breezy southeasterly winds to continue again today, along
with temperatures climbing closer to the 90 degree mark. By late
Friday, high clouds will start to filter in from the west, as
southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next storm system that
will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
More on that in the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Key Messages:

- Level 1 of 5 risk for isolated severe storms across the southern
  Edwards Plateau Friday night
- Level 2 of 5 risk for isolated to scattered severe storms Saturday
  night across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and
  Hill Country, and Level 1 of 5 risk for the I-35 corridor
- Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary risks

An upper level trough is forecast to dig south into the Four Corners
and northwest Mexico Friday through Saturday, then move east into
the Plains and Texas Saturday night, eventually dragging a cold front
through the area Easter morning.

The dry line is forecast to become active late Friday afternoon and
evening to the northwest and across Mexico as a lead shortwave in the
southwest flow aloft ejects out. There is a 20-50% chance of both
surface based and elevated upstream convection making into portions
of the northern Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill
Country. We will watch for the potential for an isolated strong to
severe storm or two Friday night across Val Verde, and Edwards
counties, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
threats. SPC has placed this area in a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe
storms. Farther east into the I-35 corridor, an uptick in
precipitation chances takes places during the day Saturday, but
capping should limit the threat to mainly shower activity. Coverage
of showers and storms this far south Friday night through Saturday is
forecast to be isolated to widely scattered.

The better chances for more organized convection looks to arrive
Saturday night into early Easter Sunday, as the main forcing ahead of
the upper level trough and cold front arrive. We are currently
forecasting a 60-80% chance of showers and storms during this time
across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country,
and I-35 corridor, with these chances continue to trend up. Again,
we will have to watch for the potential for isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe storms Saturday night across the Rio
Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country, with
damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. SPC has placed this
area in a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms. A weakening trend in
the storms may occur into Easter morning near the I-35 corridor and
east into the Coastal Plains, as the front undercuts the convection
and reaches a more stable region. Most global ensembles have the
precipitation clearing east of the I-35 corridor by the afternoon.

Precipitation amounts Friday night through Sunday look to average
1/10-1/2 of an inch along and south of the U.S. 90/I-10 corridor and
1/2" to 1 inch north, with isolated higher amounts. There are some
outliers, with a 10% chance of amounts exceeding 1 1/2 inches through
the northern Hill Country and into the northern I-35 corridor near
Austin.

Temperatures Easter Sunday are tricky, with global models potentially
too warm and not handling well the strength of the shallow cool
airmass this far south. The current forecast is indicating upper 70s
to lower 80s for highs Easter Sunday across the Hill Country, I-35
corridor, and Coastal Plains to mid to upper 80s along the Rio
Grande, but these may trend down.

A return flow develops Monday and Monday night, with a low chance of
showers across the Coastal Plains. An active southern jet stream
brings additional chances for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday,
however confidence in timing and placement of showers and storms is
low confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Conditions return to VFR for the start of the period with gusty
south to southeast wind through Friday. Sustained wind from 10-20
mph with gusts from 20-30 mph will be common through the period with
the strongest wind over I-35 terminals. MVFR ceilings return late
tonight around 05-06Z for I-35 terminals and reach DRT Friday
morning around 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              88  68  90  70 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  67  90  69 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     89  67  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            87  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  71  96  73 /   0   0   0  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             90  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        88  67  90  68 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  70  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  69  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  69  93  70 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...27