Hot temperatures are forecast over the Plains and into the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday where Heat Advisories have been issued. Heavy rain from a disturbance in the western Gulf could bring flooding to south Texas. Erin could bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the USVI this weekend with dangerous surf and rip currents impacting the western Atlantic Basin. Read More >
322
FXUS64 KEWX 151703
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated Heat Index values of 104-108 degrees near and east of
I-35 today
- NHC monitoring Invest 98L, which is forecast to move inland over
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later today
- Rain chances (20-40%) across Coastal Plains to near I-35 corridor
this afternoon and tonight, spreading inland into south-central
Texas Saturday.
- Level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to
flooding today through Saturday
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Recent satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance (98L)
located over the western Gulf continues to lack a closed low-level
circulation. However, shower activity has increased some over the
past few hours. The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward
across the western Gulf this morning and inland into northeastern
Mexico and south Texas this afternoon. The National Hurricane Center
is giving the system a 50% chance of developing into a short-lived
tropical depression before moving inland later today. The remnant
surface reflection is forecast to work northwest up the Rio Grande
tonight into Saturday with deeper pool of tropical moisture and mid
level forcing centering eats of it, over south-central Texas.
Deeper tropical moisture associated with the system extends well
northeast of the small low and will work into the inland Coastal
Plains later this afternoon. This should lead to the development of
isolated to widely scattered tropical showers mid to late afternoon
across the Coastal Plains to potentially the I-35 corridor. However,
we will have to watch closely and if the system does have the
ability wrap up before landfall today this could consolidate
precipitation closer to the center. Otherwise, seasonably warm
air temperatures today, however elevated heat index values of
104-108 degrees are forecast for some areas along and east of the
I-35 corridor.
A temporary lull in convective activity is forecast after
sunset. Then, increasing low level flow to the east of the wave
should lead to the re-development of tropical showers overnight
farther inland into the area, into the I-35 corridor near San Antonio.
But again, watching closely to see if the system is stronger and
precipitation consolidates near the center closer to the Rio Grande.
If not, isolated to widely scattered showers are forecast to spread
north into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau during the
day on Saturday, in addition to coverage over the I-35 corridor and
Coastal Plains. Global models have been insistent on the forcing
weakening and working north Saturday night with drier air moving into
the area.
Generally rainfall amounts are forecast to range from 1/10 to 1/2
inch. Some locations may get left out along the Rio Grande and
southern Edwards Plateau. Also, there could be isolated higher
pockets of 1 to 2 inches that occur anywhere across the Coastal
Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country, but confidence in
exactly where is low. The Weather Prediction Center does have a
Level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to
flash flooding across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill
Country.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Ridging aloft centered north of the area should result in mainly dry
conditions Sunday and Monday with seasonably warm temperatures. The
ridge shifts west and amplifies over the Four Corners Tuesday through
Thursday, while an inverted trough over the Gulf slides west into
the region. This should lead to increasing chances (20-50%) for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms across the region,
similar to earlier this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Tricky flying conditions expected as invest 98L moves near and
possibly over the I-35 TAF sites. Initial wave of convection has
moved into the Coastal Plains for the start of the TAF cycle. Did
include a mention of showers for KSAT and KSSF with VCTS. Current
storm motions puts these storms near the 5 mile ring of KSAT around
the 1815z-1830z. Potential of showers making it to KAUS is low as
drier air has been wining out. Will monitor trends this afternoon as
increase moisture in the lowest levels increases.
Outside of terminals being impacted by the above mentioned showers,
expect VFR cigs to prevail through the overnight hours before clouds
start to increase with the approach of the center of invest 98L.
Then expect MVFR cigs with ISOLD SHRA/TSRA for the I-35 sites for
Saturday into and possibly beyond Saturday afternoon. Depending on
the track 98L takes could see PROB30s extended much longer or
shorter than currently forecast. Will monitor radar and model trends
for possible inclusion in later forecasts. Right now have PROB30s
from 11Z/12Z to 18Z for all TAF sites except KDRT. Also depending on
the track of this system KDRT could not see any PROB30s as most of
the moisture would be displaced well to the east of the center.
Expect E-SE winds for all TAF sites prior to the arrival of 98L with
higher gusts up to 25kts expected as the system gets closer. Will
continue to monitor trends and update as needed as this is a
relatively low confidence forecast period as models are handling
this system poorly.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 77 97 78 99 / 10 40 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 76 99 / 20 40 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 75 99 / 20 40 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 93 75 96 / 10 30 10 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 78 98 79 101 / 10 20 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 97 75 99 / 10 30 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 74 99 / 30 30 10 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 76 97 75 100 / 20 40 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 76 98 / 20 40 0 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 97 77 99 / 30 40 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 78 101 / 30 40 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...62
Aviation...36/CJM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 08/14/2025 06:09:00 AM UTC
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