November 2012 Climate and Hydrology Summary

November & Autumn 2012

Tulsa: November 2012 was the 23rd warmest (52.6°F; since 1905) and the 30th driest (1.11"; since 1888) November on record.

Tulsa: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm minimum temperature.

Fort Smith: November 2012 was the 40th warmest (53.1°F; since 1882) and the 2nd driest (0.29"; since 1882) November on record.

Fort Smith: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature.

Fort Smith received 4.15" below the normal November rainfall (1981-2010) this month, making it the 2nd driest November on record. The current record is 0.26" in 1904. Rain was recorded on 4 days in November 2012.

Fayetteville: November 2012 was the 30th warmest (48.0°F; since 1949) and the 8th driest (0.97", tied 1950; since 1949) November on record.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature.

McAlester: Daily records set or tied this month include record warm maximum temperatures and record warm mean temperatures.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for November 2012 were 1.5” or less for all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This represents 50% or less of the normal November rainfall. Portions of west central AR and southeast OK received less than 0.5”, which is less than 10% of the normal rainfall for the month. The worst off, however, included areas of Choctaw and southern Pushmataha Counties, where less than 0.1” of rain, less than 5% of normal, fell this month.

According to the Drought Monitor from November 27, 2012, all of eastern OK and northwest AR was in Severe to Exceptional drought. Exceptional (D4) drought was occurring over portions of Osage, Pawnee, and Washington Counties in eastern OK. Severe (D2) drought was present across portions of Ottawa, Craig, Rogers, Mayes, and Delaware Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, northern Carroll, Crawford, and southern northern Franklin Counties in northwest AR. Extreme drought (D3) conditions existed across the remainder of the area.

In 2012, Tulsa, Fort Smith, and Fayetteville all had their RECORD warmest January 1 - November 30 period for their respective periods of record.

Autumn (September - October - November) 2012

Tulsa: Autumn 2012 was the 35th warmest (63.0°F, tied 2001, 1977; since 1905) and the 25th driest (5.64"; since 1888) Autumn on record.

Fort Smith: Autumn 2012 was the 33rd warmest (64.1°F, tied 2011, 1904; since 1882) and the 12th driest (4.73"; since 1882) Autumn on record.

Fayetteville: Autumn 2012 was the 20th warmest (57.5°F, tied 1979, 1975, 1969; since 1949) and the 14th driest (6.83"; since 1949) Autumn on record.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Autumn 2012 was the 15th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 14th driest for east central Oklahoma, and the 2nd driest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for December 2012 (issued November 30, 2012) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based primarily on short-range computer models, as a warm start to the month is expected for much of the southern and central U.S.

For the 3-month period Dec-Jan-Feb 2012-13, CPC is forecasting an equal chance for above, near, and below average temperatures across far northeast OK and far northwest AR, with a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures elsewhere. This outlook also calls for a slightly enhanced chance for above median precipitation for the Tennessee Valley and possibly as far west as eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued November 15, 2012). This outlook is based on dynamic computer model output, statistical tools, and long-term trends.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions are expected during the upcoming winter and El Niño is no longer anticipated. ENSO neutral conditions continued through November.