Spring Flood Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
838 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2016...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS
CALLING FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT SPRING IS A CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR RIVER FLOODING...THIS OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE NUMBER AND MAGNITUDE OF
RIVER FLOODS TO BE HIGHER THAN TYPICAL.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE...UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE
BECOME WET IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO RECENT WEATHER
SYSTEMS PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE WINTER SEASON.
AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COOSA-TALLAPOOSA RIVER BASIN...THE UPPER
CHATTACHOOCHEE RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER FLINT RIVER BASIN
AVERAGING ABOVE OR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW.

CLIMATE REGIME...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH
THE WINTER MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING.
THIS PATTERN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STORM TRACKS THAT HAVE BROUGHT
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ABOUT EVERY
3 TO 5 DAYS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
APPROXIMATELY EVERY OTHER WEEK.

RAINFALL...DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
HAS PREVAILED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS AREA WAS
GENERALLY 110 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10
TO 35 INCHES. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
OCCURRED A FEW TIMES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN
JANUARY...WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...THE ATLANTA METRO AREA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
IN FEBRUARY. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HAVE RECEIVED LESS
RAINFALL...THOUGH STILL AVERAGING 90 TO 110 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...AND RECENT FLOODING HAS BEEN INFLUENCED MORE BY ROUTED
WATER DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE BASIN HEADWATERS.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...OVERALL POOL LEVELS OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE NEAR OR ABOVE TARGET
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A FEW ALREADY APPROACHING
SUMMER POOL LEVELS. WITH MOST RESERVOIRS ALREADY HIGH...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL TO KEEP POOL LEVELS AND STREAMFLOWS HIGH.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
A CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SPRING...WITH THE CPC
OUTLOOK KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST RAINFALL INTO THE SUMMER.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS AND THE
PRE- EXISTING ABOVE NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS...THE OUTLOOK IS FOR AN
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

&&

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...GO TO:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA

AND UNDER CURRENT WEATHER...CLICK ON "RIVERS/LAKES".

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGEHPC24