November 2013 Climate and Hydrology Summary

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November 2013 and Autumn 2013

Tulsa: November 2013 was the 26th coldest (47.3°F; since 1905) and the 60th driest (1.91"; since 1888) November on record.

Tulsa: No daily records were set or tied this month.

Fort Smith: November 2013 was the 48th coldest (49.7°F, tied 1940, 1984; since 1882) and the 59th driest (2.40", tied 1971; since 1882) November on record.

Fort Smith: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm maximum temperature and a record cold maximum temperature.

Fayetteville: November 2013 was the 11th coldest (44.2°F; since 1949) and the 26th driest (2.24"; since 1949) November on record.

Fayetteville: No daily records were set or tied this month.

McAlester: Daily records set or tied this month include record low maximum temperatures, a record low minimum temperature, and record low mean temperatures.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for November 2013 ranged from 1”-3” across the majority of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, a few areas received 3” to around 4” of rain. All but a small sliver of northern Osage County had below normal precipitation for November 2013, with most of the area receiving only 25%-75% of the normal November rainfall.

November 2013 was a relatively dry month across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with temperatures also running below normal.

No mainstem river flooding occurred this month.

According to the Drought Monitor from November 26, 2013, Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued in southern Choctaw County in southeast Oklahoma. Southern Rogers, Mayes, northern Wagoner, and Choctaw Counties were classified as Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought conditions.

Autumn 2013 (September-October-November 2013)

In Tulsa, OK, Autumn 2013 ranked as the 47th coldest (61.6°F, tied 1918; since 1905) and the 47th driest (7.93”; since 1888) Autumn.

In Fort Smith, AR, Autumn 2013 ranked as the 38th warmest (63.9°F, tied 1965, 1946, 1924; since 1882) and the 41st driest (8.08”; since 1882) Autumn.

In Fayetteville, AR, Autumn 2013 ranked as the 27th coldest (57.8°F, tied 1992; since 1949) and the 31st driest (11.45”; since 1949) Autumn.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for December 2013 (issued November 30, 2013) indicates a slightly enhanced chance for below median precipitation and equal chances for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook is based primarily on short term forecasts of expected weather conditions during the first half of the month, as well as longer term climate anomalies.

For the 3-month period December-January-February 2013-14, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median rainfall across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through November. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue into at least late Spring 2014.

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