Thunderstorms in the Mid-Mississippi Valley and Florida; Fire Weather Concerns in the Northern Plains

Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Clusters of thunderstorms may produce isolated flash flooding in the Florida peninsula. Elevated fire weather risk is possible in the Northern Plains into western Minnesota. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 040044
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
144 PM SST Sun May 3 2026

.Discussion...
An active trough in the region holds unstable and wet conditions
for the territory. Latest satellite and upper air data depicts
thunderstorms nearby, as well as an increased risk for flash
flooding (balloon profile appears to be more moist compared to the
sounding from last night). Meanwhile, a ridge is evident just
north of the trough. ECMWF and GFS models diverge on the strength
of the ridge, with ECMWF showing a weaker feature. A weaker ridge
means a higher risk for flash flooding as the trough remains
anchored over the Samoa Island chain, whereas a stronger one
pushes the trough further south. However, as satellite data
corresponds better with ECMWF, we will continue the Flash Flood
Watch through Monday morning.

By Tuesday, the trough will shift southward, leaving the territory
in a CUL or area with no significant weather. Expect light winds
and passing showers through Friday, before an east breeze of 10 to
15 mph dominates through the weekend.

&&

.Marine...
Latest wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoys are in the range
of 5 to 7 feet. These heights will gradually build tonight
through Tuesday as a south swell passes through the area.
Additionally, nearby thunderstorms could elevate seas at times.
Hence, a small craft advisory is in effect. Once these swells
subside by midweek, expect fairly calm seas through the end of the
week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM