Storm Impacting the Northwest U.S.; Fire Weather Conditions in Southern California; Severe Weather in the South

A Pacific storm is bringing areas of low elevation rain, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and high winds to the Northwest. Strong Santa Ana winds and very dry conditions are producing elevated to critical fire weather conditions in southern California. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas into western Tennessee. Read More >

730
FXZS60 NSTU 090024
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
124 PM SST Thu May 8 2025

.Short term...
Latest satellite data shows thunderstorm (associated with a
trough to the north) near Tutuila, while low-level cumuli passes
through Manu`a. The thunderstorms have moved closer than expected,
suggesting the high-pressure system that produced strong
tradewinds is starting to move away from the Islands.

A downward trend for winds is reflected on latest surface and
sounding observations showing southeast winds at 40 mph, now
sustained at 25 to 35 mph. As a result, the High Wind Warning (40
mph winds) was downgraded to a Wind Advisory (25 to 35 mph winds)
this afternoon, which may continue to diminish and fall below
advisory levels by Friday.

Model data remains consistent in flash flooding peaking on Friday
as the trough descends over the territory. We are confident in
torrential downpour and flash flooding for this time. Winds will
become light as the trough moves over the Islands.

.Long term...
Previous models extended the potential for flooding to Saturday,
but latest data suggest a diminishing trend by Friday night as
the trough moves south sooner than expected. This pattern is
possible as thunderstorms came earlier today than expected. As a
result, scattered showers may play out for Saturday, instead of
the widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system developing over Fiji will pass
south of the Islands Sunday. Though no direct impacts are
expected, an uptick in showers may occur as the trough moves back
over the Islands. This time, winds will reach breezy conditions as
ridge builds in the area.

&&

.Marine...
While winds have slightly subsided below warning levels,
hazardous ocean conditions persist. The latest satellite data
still shows that seas are around 15 to 16 feet, which is expected
as ocean conditions tend to react more slowly to changes in wind
patterns. Hence, we continue to urge mariners, especially with
small crafts, to anchor and secure their boats. Also, we strongly
advise beachgoers to stay out of the water until these hazardous
conditions subside.

Wave heights are forecast to gradually decrease later tonight,
falling to advisory levels (10 feet) on Friday. However, winds
near 20 knots may hold rough seas throughout the upcoming week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning
Wind Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Flash Flood Watch

&&

$$

TM