American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

827
FXZS60 NSTU 210103
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
203 PM SST Fri Mar 20 2026

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure lingering over the area kept partly
cloudy skies with passing showers from time to time throughout
the day. The atmospheric profile shown on this afternoon`s
(21/00Z) radiosonde observations (RAOB) support these conditions-
moderate easterlies throughout the atmosphere with a
conditionally unstable profile. Model data show these features
remaining over the islands tonight through at least late Tuesday.
By midweek and the rest of the forecast period, model shows a
trough to the south moving over the area as it increases the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. This may enhance the
possibility of minor to moderate flooding on the roadways and
vulnerable areas.

Thus, expect isolated to scattered showers with gentle to
moderate easterlies for tonight through at least Monday night.
Expect a higher chance of showers with possible thunderstorms,
and light and variable winds for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
As gentle to moderate easterlies prevail throughout the day,
a moderately choppy and elevated seas was also observed over the
waters. These observations are supported by data from the PacIOOS
buoys. Seas of 5 to 7 feet with peak periods more than 13 seconds
long will likely remain over the area tonight through at least
Sunday night. By Monday, model data shows a large south swell
moving into the area, elevating seas to near or over advisory
thresholds (8 feet). Thunderstorms that are also embedded within
the aforementioned trough will increase gusty winds and elevate
seas. The gentle easterlies will become light and variable by
this time frame. No other significant threat is expected for this
forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen