Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Along the Central Gulf Coast; Pacific Storm in the Northwest

Showers and thunderstorms pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, occasional damaging gusts, and some scattered flash flooding along the central Gulf Coast. A Pacific storm system continues to bring gusty winds, lower elevation rain, and hazardous mountain snow to the northwestern U.S.. Read More >

180
FXZS60 NSTU 010043
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
143 PM SST Fri Oct 31 2025

.Short term [tonight through Sunday night]...
Heavy showers and thunderstorms have been observed devloping in
the Manu`a Islands region throughout the day as a trough moves
into the area from the north and east. This activity led to
issuance of a Flood Advisory for Manu`a earlier in the day,
meanwhile Tutuila and Aunu`u have experienced only passing
showers. This afternoon`s RAOB upper-air sounding revealed an
unstable profile that is becoming more moist with time when
compared to last night`s sounding. With thunderstorm activity
already in the area and the environment moistening with time as
the trough moves closer to the territory, there is high
confidence in the potential for heavy rainfall. Therefore, a
Flash Flood Watch is now in effect.

The surface convergence associated with the trough is forecast to
strengthen and move across the territory on Saturday. This will
lead to winds decreasing and turning out of the north. The trough
is forecast to linger over the territory through the weekend,
with the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

.Long term [Monday through Friday]...
Weak winds out of the north to northeast will continue into early
next week. By midweek, winds will turn back out of the east.
These easterly trade winds should build back to breezy conditions
by Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds south of the
territory. The environment is forecast to remain unstable next
week, supporting passing showers. Any subtle convergences in the
wind field could lead to periods of enhanced rain chances and
heavy rainfall potential, but these are hard to predict at this
range.

&&

.Marine...
Seas exceeded forecast expectations, brifly peaking at over 9
feet last night into early this morning at Aunu`u buoy. However,
over the past few hours, seas have begun the expected subsiding
trend. Seas are anticipated to continue subsiding to below Small
Craft Advisory threshold this weekend as winds turn out of the
north and decrease with the passage of the trough. However, gusts
near heavy showers and thunderstorms may still briefly elevate
seas through Sunday. Seas will then remain below advisory
threshold through midweek.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory
Flash Flood Watch

&&

$$

Barton