230
FXZS60 NSTU 220026
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
126 PM SST Fri Feb 21 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries continue to show the South Pacific
Convergence Zone (SPCZ) remaining over the area. However, hourly
observations throughout the day together with upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (22/00Z) shows a downward
trend in winds and gusts. Moderate to strong (15 to 25 mph)
sustained northwest to north winds with gusts up to 37 mph was
reported here at the office, throughout the day. Stronger and
higher gusts will be experienced at the harbor area, higher
elevations and near steep terrains. Thus, the high wind warning
has been downgraded to a wind advisory through at least tonight.


Also shown on satellite imageries are bands of rain showers
moving in from the northwest and north, producing widespread
showers, heavy at times with potential thunderstorms and gusty
winds over the islands. These conditions will likely continue
through the overnight hours, decreasing by Saturday. The heavy
showers will likely be the main threat for tonight through at
least late Saturday. Additionally, by the consensus of model
data, a ridge to the north will continue to build and push the
SPCZ southward by late Saturday. Once the SPCZ is out of the area,
conditions will likely improve for the rest of the forecast
period.

Therefore, expect widespread showers, heavy at times with possible
thunderstorms and gusty winds will remain for tonight through
Saturday. Winds will turn northeast on late Saturday into Sunday
at moderate to fresh breeze and remain for the rest of the week.
Expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures for the long term
forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Observations from the PacIOOS buoys to the east (Aunu`u) and west
(King-Poloa) of Tutuila Island show heights within the advisory
levels. However, both buoys show swells coming in from the north
with the Aunu`u buoy reporting peak periods around 14 to 16
seconds long, and the Poloa buoy periods less than 10 seconds.
The long periods indicate the likelihood of enhanced surfs,
especially for the north shores. Model data shows a downward trend
in seas as winds also decrease. With the wind advisory in effect
through at least tonight, seas will also gradually subside to
advisory thresholds by Saturday. In the meantime, the high surf
warning will remain in effect through at least tonight, but the
gale warning is now canceled. Will continue to monitor as more
data becomes available.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning is Canceled
Gale Warning is Canceled
High Surf Warning remains in effect
Wind Advisory is now in effect
Small Craft Advisory is now in effect
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect

&&

$$

JTAllen