American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

973
FXZS60 NSTU 230057
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
157 PM SST Thu Jan 22 2026

.Short term...
[TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...The trough mentioned in previous
discussions has become more active from 24 hours ago. Latest
satellite data shows the trough located north of the territory,
with lightning signals also evident, suggesting an active trough.
Although sunny weather is being experienced right now, expect this
to change as the trough moves over the Islands. Flash flooding
and thunderstorms may persist into the new week, with possible
breaks in shower activity Saturday through Sunday. Gusty winds
are also expected near thunderstorms.

.Long term...
[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...The trough will remain over the
Islands through the end of the forecast period. Flooding and wind
conditions are expected to worsen Sunday night through midweek as
the trough becomes more developed. Low-pressure systems may form
within the trough. However, expect winds to reach advisory or
near-warning levels Monday, and flash flood warnings through
midweek. Although the weather is forecast to slightly improve
Wednesday, the trough remaining anchored in the area may sustain
flooding conditions through the end of the month.

&&

.Marine...
Calm seas remain for the territory as winds are observed below 10
knots. However, wave heights are expected to build tonight to
advisory levels as winds gradually increase. Nearby thunderstorms
could also briefly elevate seas. Active weather may hold a small
craft advisory through the weekend, increasing to near warning
thresholds for surfs by Monday as waves are projected to reach
over 15 feet.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch

&&

$$

TM