Heavy Rain Continues in Florida; Cold Front Brings Thunderstorms and Showers to Central US

Scattered areas of heavy rain continue to produce isolated flash flooding across the Florida peninsula. Anomalous moisture will combine with a cold front and will bring heavy rain and scattered flash flooding across the Mid-South, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and Tuesday. Above average temperatures will continue to be found ahead of the cold front from the Midwest to the Northeast. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 070051
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
151 PM SST Mon Oct 6 2025

.Discussion...
The trough that brought flash flooding last night has since
weakened over the area. However, the environment remains strongly
unstable as seen in today`s RAOB sounding. This will favor the
potential for flash flooding later this evening and tonight as a
cold front moves closer to the area, providing the surface
convergence needed for widespread shower and potential
thunderstorm development. The convection along the cold front is
most active further south. However, this afternoon convection has
been seen devloping further north with greater intensity,
supporting that flash flooding could be a threat tonight. As a
result a Flood Watch has been issued.

Rain is expected to continue Tuesday, but flash flooding is less
likely as the potential heavy rainfall tonight and cooler air
mass should help to stabilize the environment. However, Wednesday
and Thursday another trough embedded within the trade wind flow
could once again bring widespread showers with the possibility of
thunderstorms and flash flooding. Therefore, the Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through at least Thursday. Winds out of the
east to southeast will increase to breezy at up to 25 mph
Wednesday and slightly decrease over the weekend. Moisture
convergence will remain over the area continuing the rainy
pattern throughout the entire forecast period, but the flash
flooding threat is expected to decrease after Thursday.

&&

.Marine...
Seas have been steady in the 5 to 7 foot range for the past few
days, but this will soon change. Seas will start increasing by
Tuesday night. By Wednesday, development of a fresh breeze is
expected to drive large and choppy wind-driven waves of 8 to 10
feet. These rough and choppy seas will then remain throughout the
remainder of the forecast periods, as the fresh breeze persists
through at least Friday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms may lead
Tuesday into to larger and more unpredictable waves at times.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch

&&

$$

Barton