November 2010 Climate and Hydrology Summary

November & Autumn 2010

Tulsa: November 2010 was 32nd warmest (51.8°F, tied with 1944, 1942; since 1905) and the 60th driest (1.96", tied with 2008; since 1888) November on record.

Tulsa: A record high temperature of 79°F tied on November 22. The previous record occurred in 1966.

Fort Smith: November 2010 was the 25th warmest (54.0°F, tied with 2004) and 61st driest (2.47") November since records began in 1882.

Fort Smith: A record high temperature of 80°F tied on November 24. The previous record occurred in 1965.

McAlester: A record high temperature of 80°F tied on November 22. The previous record occurred in 1955. A record high temperature of 79°F tied on November 24. The previous record occurred in 1965. A record low temperature of 19°F was set on November 26. The previous record was 20°F in 1975.

Fayetteville: A record warm minimum temperature of 53°F tied on November 21. The previous record occurred in 2003.

Rainfall totals of November 2010 ranged from 0.5" to near 5" across the eastern OK and northwest AR, with most of the area receiving between 1" and 3". The entire area received below normal rainfall this month, with the exception of a small portion of Craig and Ottawa Counties. Most of the area recorded less than 75% of the normal November rainfall, with a large portion of the area only receiving 25% - 50% of the monthly normal.

According to the Drought Monitor from November 30, 2010, abnormally dry conditions (D0) extended across much of eastern OK and into Sebastian County in west central AR. This expansion of abnormally dry conditions was due to the overall below normal precipitation received this November.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS), northeast OK ranked as the 39th wettest November, east central OK ranked as the 34th driest, and southeast OK ranked as the 34th driest since records began in 1921.

Autumn 2010

Tulsa: Autumn 2010 was 31st warmest (63.4°F, tied with 1980, 1930; since 1905) and the 28th driest (6.04", since 1888) Autumn on record.

Fort Smith: Autumn 2010 was the 23rd warmest (64.6°F, tied with 1960, 1883, 1882) and 63rd wettest (9.96") Autumn since records began in 1882.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for December 2010 (issued November 30, 2010) indicates an equal chance for above, near, and below average temperatures, as well as an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation. Short-term computer models indicated that an enhanced chance for cooler than normal temperatures due to a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation will offset the enhanced chance for warmer than normal temperatures due to La Niña effects. Therefore, the December outlook indicates equal chances for temperature across the region.

For the 3-month period Dec-Jan-Feb 2010-11, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above average temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation (outlook issued November 18, 2010). The enhanced chance for above average temperatures for the 3-month winter outlook is consistent with La Niña impacts across the southern Plains. However, the precipitation signal across the region for La Niña is not strong. This means that during some La Niñas, eastern OK and northwest AR experience wetter than median precipiation, while for others it is drier than the median.

According to CPC, borderline strong La Niña conditions were observed at the end of November. La Niña conditions typically peak near December, and current computer models indicate that La Niña borderline moderate to strong conditions will occur this December. La Niña conditions are still expected to continue through winter 2010-11,and very likely into the spring. A La Niña Advisory remains in effect, meaning that La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.