June 2016 Climate and Hydrology Summary

June 2016

Tulsa: June 2016 was the 6th warmest (82.5°F, tied 1980; since 1905) and the 6th driest (0.77", ; since 1888) June on record.

Fort Smith: June 2016 was the 13th warmest (81.6°F; since 1882) and the 27th driest (1.91"; since 1882) June on record.

Fort Smith: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm minimum temperature.

Fayetteville: June 2016 was the 13th warmest (75.9°F; since 1950) and the 20th driest (2.87"; since 1950) June on record.

Fayetteville: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm minimum temperature.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for June 2016 ranged from a measly 0.25” to around 6”. A large portion of the area received 0.50”-2” of rain this month. This corresponds to 5%-50% of the normal June rain across most of the region. Only small areas received 75% to around 125% of the normal June rain this month. The heavier rain in June formed a “ring of fire” around eastern OK and west central AR, leaving well below normal rainfall for much of the area.

Showers and thunderstorms developed along and north of a diffuse boundary in northeast OK during the early morning hours of July 1st. Training storms with heavy rain produced 5”-8” of rain over Pawnee and southern Osage through the morning. The Oklahoma Mesonet site in Pawnee measured 5.78”. This resulted in high water over roadways and flooded a portion of the Pawnee Public Library. The Pawnee rainfall occurred after midnight, but mostly before 7am on July 1st. Prior to this rainfall, the Pawnee Mesonet station had only recorded 0.53” for the month of June, ranking as the second driest Mesonet station this month.

According to the Drought Monitor from June 28, 2016, D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions had developed over Pawnee County and adjacent parts of Osage and Creek Counties in northeast OK. While there were no drought conditions elsewhere in eastern OK and northwest AR, abnormally dry conditions were present across portions of Osage, Washington, Nowata, Creek, Tulsa, Wagoner, Rogers, Muskogee, Craig, Ottawa, Pittsburg, Haskell, Latimer, and Le Flore Counties in OK, and Franklin, Washington, Benton, Carroll, and Madison Counties in AR.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, June 2016 was the 3rd driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 14th driest for east central Oklahoma, and the 13th driest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921. For the Year-to-Date period Jan. 1-June 30, 2016, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 15th driest, east central Oklahoma was the 22nd driest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 43rd wettest period. For the last 365 days (July 2, 2015-Jun 30, 2016), northeast Oklahoma was the 19th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the 4th wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 9th wettest.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for July 2016 (issued June 30, 2016), indicates an enhanced chance of above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook also calls for equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based on both short- and extended-range weather forecasts. Considerations for the Madden-Julian Oscillation and ENSO neutral conditions were not taken into account.

For the 3-month period July-August-September 2016, CPC is forecasting an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation and a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued June 16, 2016). This outlook is based primarily on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and soil moisture conditions.

According to CPC, Pacific sea surface temperatures along the equator are near to slightly below average. Outlooks beyond July-August-Septmeber include impacts due to the transition to La Niña. The chance of La Niña conditions by August-September-October is 70%, with probabilities persisting above 70% through the 2016-17 Winter. A La Niña Watch is in effect.