April 2014 Climate and Hydrology Summary

April 2014

Tulsa: April 2014 was the 38th coldest (59.2°F; since 1905) and the 24th driest (2.13"; since 1888) April on record.

Fort Smith: April 2014 was the 62nd warmest (61.7°F; since 1883) and the 46th driest (2.94"; since 1883) April on record.

Fayetteville: April 2014 was the 19th coldest (55.4°F; since 1950) and the 16th driest (3.03"; since 1950) April on record.

April 2014 was overall a cool and dry month, with temperatures running slightly below normal and precipitation amounts between 1.36" and 1.66" below normal at Tulsa, Fort Smith, Fayetteville, and McAlester.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for April 2014 ranged from about 0.5” to near 6”, with the highest totals falling over southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas. Locations along and northwest of Highway-44 only received between 25% - 50% of the normal April rainfall, while portions of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas received up to about 125% of the normal precipitation for April.

Several rounds of severe weather affected eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during April 2014, during the dates of April 3rd, April 13th, April 24th, and April 27th. These strong storms brought hail, strong winds, and a few tornadoes to the area. 3 tornadoes were confirmed across the forecast area during the month, including an EF-1 near Peter Pender, AR, an EF-2 in Quapaw, OK, and an EF-1 near Octavia, OK. For more information about the severe weather on April 27th which included the Quapaw and Octavia tornadoes go here.

According to the Drought Monitor from April 29, 2014, much of northeast Oklahoma and southeast Oklahoma remained in D0 - D1 drought (abnormally dry - moderate drought), with portions of Pawnee, Osage, Washington, and Nowata Counties in a D2 drought (severe drought). D0 drought (abnormally dry) had also developed across much of northeast Arkansas.

According to the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), April 2014 was the 42nd coldest for northeast Oklahoma, the 45th coldest for east central Oklahoma, the 51st coldest for southeast Oklahoma, the 44th coldest for northwest Arkansas, and the 47th coldest for west central Arkansas. Records go back to 1895.

According to the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), April 2014 was the 10th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 23rd driest for east central Oklahoma, the 52nd driest for southeast Oklahoma, the 34th driest for northwest Arkansas, and the 60th driest for west central Arkansas. Records go back to 1895.Records go back to 1895.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for May 2014 indicates a slightly enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across northeast OK and northwest AR, while equal chances for above, near, and below median temperatures appear across southeast Oklahoma. This outlook also indicates equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and much of northwest AR, with portions of Carroll and Madison Counties within an area of slightly enhanced chance for above normal precipitation. This outlook is based primarily on short-range computer models.

For the 3-month period May - July 2014, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures, and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is primarily based on dynamic computer model output, with some input from statistical forecast tools and long-term trends.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions persisted through April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures developing over the eastern Pacific. ENSO conditions should remain neutral for the rest of the Spring 2014 season, with an increased chance of ENSO conditions developing during the Summer 2014 and beyond. An El Nino Watch has been issued, indicating conditions are favorable for El Nino development within the next 6 months.