Heavy rainfall from scattered thunderstorms is expected across the Southwest, Intermountain West, and Plains. Isolated dry thunderstorms may initiate additional fires across the west. The coastal Carolinas may experience flash floods in the coming days due to repeated thunderstorms. Additionally, a wave of intense summer heat will hit the Southern Plains and central Gulf Coast States this week. Read More >
SVR/TOR Warnings | Flash Flood | Tornadoes | Winter Storms | High Wind |
SVR (severe thunderstorm warnings): The number of severe thunderstorm warnings issued.
TOR (tornado warnings): The number of tornado warnings issued.
TOTAL (total of severe and tornado warnings): The total number of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings combined.
FFW (flash flood warnings): The number of flash flood warnings.
WARN (warnings): The number of warnings issued.
VERIF (verification): The number of warnings that verified.
EVENTS (events): Total number of actual severe weather events.
UNWARN (unwarned): The number of unwarned events.
WATCH (watches): The number of watches that were in effect before warnings were issued.
FAR (false alarm ratio): The percentage of warnings where the particular weather event did not occur.
POD (probability of detection): The percentage of events that were warned for and the conditions occured.
CSI (critical success index): The number of warned events divided by the sum of the total number of events and the number of the unverified counties.
LT (lead time): The average lead time before the first reported instance of the particular event.
SVR/TOR Warnings
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1994 | 133 | 36 | 169 | 166 | .503 | .620 | .381 | 12.1 |
1995 | 125 | 9 | 134 | 104 | .590 | .606 | .324 | 13.2 |
1996 | 89 | 5 | 94 | 76 | .436 | .868 | .519 | 18.2 |
1997 | 224 | 36 | 260 | 204 | .388 | .882 | .565 | 21.9 |
1998 | 330 | 52 | 382 | 386 | .343 | .904 | .614 | 27.1 |
1999 | 125 | 16 | 141 | 131 | .362 | .924 | .606 | 23.6 |
2000 | 240 | 14 | 254 | 260 | .276 | .919 | .681 | 22.4 |
2001 | 184 | 14 | 198 | 216 | .228 | .931 | .730 | 19.1 |
2002 | 170 | 28 | 198 | 214 | .192 | .879 | .727 | 17.4 |
2003 | 118 | 8 | 126 | 135 | .254 | .859 | .665 | 15.4 |
2004 | 165 | 27 | 192 | 191 | .375 | .848 | .562 | 19.9 |
2005 | 132 | 22 | 154 | 172 | .305 | .779 | .580 | 14.9 |
2006 | 211 | 6 | 217 | 243 | .226 | .901 | .714 | 18.8 |
2007** | 226 | 17 | 243 | 261 | .347 | .808 | .565 | 16.3 |
2008 | 168 | 26 | 194 | 318 | .428 | .792 | .497 | 18.7 |
2009 | 78 | 24 | 102 | 158 | .363 | .876 | .585 | 21.7 |
2010 | 114 | 11 | 125 | 213 | .312 | .749 | .559 | 17.2 |
2011 | 104 | 23 | 127 | 246 | .252 | .845 | .658 | 17.2 |
2012 | 124 | 3 | 127 | 226 | .220 | .780 | .639 | 14.4 |
2013 | 123 | 21 | 144 | 164 | .451 | .767 | .470 | 15.7 |
2014 | 136 | 5 | 141 | 203 | .369 | .837 | .562 | 18.9 |
** Storm Based Warnings began 10/1/2007
Flash Flood
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1997 | 14 | 8 | .357 | 1.000 | .643 | 18.8 |
1998 | 48 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 31.3 |
1999 | 38 | 18 | .447 | .778 | .477 | 54.0 |
2000 | 76 | 45 | .092 | 1.000 | .908 | 48.9 |
2001 | 15 | 7 | .553 | 1.000 | .467 | 41.4 |
2002 | 20 | 15 | .250 | .813 | .639 | 49.3 |
2003 | 4 | 2 | .500 | 1.000 | .500 | 0 |
2004 | 82 | 49 | .098 | .980 | .886 | 70.0 |
2005 | 9 | 7 | .222 | 1.000 | .778 | 12.7 |
2006 | 3 | 3 | .333 | .667 | .500 | 0 |
2007 | 52 | 59 | .231 | .949 | .739 | 66.8 |
2008 | 39 | 35 | .179 | .749 | .664 | 12.7 |
2009 | 15 | 20 | .200 | .863 | .710 | 68.9 |
2010 | 30 | 23 | .633 | .332 | .211 | 21.6 |
2011 | 22 | 13 | .591 | .671 | .341 | 54.3 |
2012 | 6 | 2 | .833 | .492 | .142 | 4.4 |
2013 | 39 | 50 | .179 | .826 | .700 | 73.2 |
2014 | 20 | 32 | .300 | .887 | .643 | 69.4 |
Tornadoes
YEAR | WARN | EVENTS | UNWARN | FAR | POD | CSI | LT |
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1995 | 9 | 6 | 4 | .778 | .333 | .154 | 4.3 |
1996 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .800 | .500 | .167 | 11.5 |
1997 | 36 | 7 | 2 | .861 | .714 | .132 | 5.9 |
1998 | 52 | 9 | 3 | .885 | .667 | .109 | 5.6 |
1999 | 16 | 5 | 1 | .750 | .800 | .235 | 22.4 |
2000 | 14 | 6 | 3 | .786 | .500 | .176 | 9.2 |
2001 | 14 | 9 | 2 | .357 | .778 | .543 | 18.1 |
2002 | 28 | 9 | 3 | .750 | .667 | .222 | 7.8 |
2003 | 8 | 1 | 0 | .875 | 1.000 | .125 | 18 |
2004 | 27 | 20 | 7 | .593 | .650 | .334 | 13.2 |
2005 | 22 | 17 | 7 | .545 | .588 | .345 | 4.9 |
2006 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
2007 | 17 | 7 | 4 | .882 | .429; | .102 | 6.1 |
2008 | 26 | 8 | 2 | .769 | .739 | .213 | 11.7 |
2009 | 24 | 8 | 2 | .750 | .708 | .227 | 15.2 |
2010 | 11 | 9 | 4 | .545 | .436 | .286 | 7.1 |
2011 | 23 | 14 | 2 | .565 | .728 | .374 | 10.9 |
2012 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | .215 | .150 | 0.2 |
2013 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
2014 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .800 | .333 | .143 | 0.3 |
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High Wind
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Last Updated 4/3/15 - tjs