October 2013 Climate and Hydrology Summary

October 2013

Tulsa: October 2013 was the 34th coldest (61.2°F, tied 2006, 1967; since 1905) and the 48th wettest (3.52"; since 1888) October on record.

Tulsa: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm minimum temperature.

Fort Smith: October 2013 was the 61st warmest (63.3°F, tied 1961, 1921; since 1882) and the 42nd wettest (4.18"; since 1882) October on record.

Fayetteville: October 2013 was the 24th coldest (57.8°F, tied 1997; since 1949) and the 16th wettest (5.55"; since 1949) October on record.

McAlester: Daily records set or tied this month include a record warm minimum temperature and a record cold mean temperature.

Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for October 2013 ranged from 2” in Osage and Pawnee Counties to around 8” in portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A large portion of the area received 3”-6”. Portions of eastern Kay, Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Tulsa, and Washington Counties in eastern Oklahoma ended the month at 50% to 75% of normal. Portions of Muskogee, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties were also below normal this month. The remainder of the are was near to above normal, with some areas receiving 150%-200% of the normal October rainfall this month

The first half of October 2013 was relatively quiet, with several rounds of heavy rainfall across eastern OK and northwest AR during the second half of the month. Much of the area received near to above normal rainfall this month.

According to the Drought Monitor from October 29, 2013, Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued in southern Choctaw County in southeast Oklahoma. Southern Rogers, Mayes, northern Wagoner, far southern Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties were classified as Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought conditions.

According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, October 2013 was the 33rd wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 26th wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 21st wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921.

Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for November 2013 (issued October 31, 2013) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and a slightly enhanced chance for above normal precipitation across all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook is based primarily on short term forecasts of expected weather conditions during the first half of the month, as well as longer term climate anomalies.

For the 3-month period November-December-January 2013-14, CPC is forecasting an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median rainfall across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued October 17, 2013). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools.

According to CPC, ENSO neutral conditions remained through October. ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue into Spring 2014.