Areas of Severe Thunderstorms, Critical Fire Weather, and HeatRisk for Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday across parts of the Southeast U.S. Elevated to critical fire weather including gusty winds and low relative humidity is forecast Monday over much of the northern Great Plains. Above normal temperatures in the Southeast and Southwest U.S. will bring moderate to isolated major HeatRisk Monday. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Fri, May 15, 2026 at 8:03:02 am CDT

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National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Low T-Storm Chances Friday, Friday Night

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Forecast Summary

Low thunderstorm chances will exist Friday morning as a disturbance moves through the area. A relative lull in the activity is expected during the afternoon, with chances increasing during the evening and overnight due to potential dryline development.

A Marginal risk for severe weather exists Sunday afternoon and evening across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. A Slight risk exists in far western Osage and Pawnee counties.

Monday afternoon into Monday night currently looks to feature the best chance for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a 30 percent chance across western Osage and Pawnee counties and a 15 percent chance extending eastward to a Eureka Springs to Fort Smith to Antlers line. All modes of severe weather, including higher end threats, will be possible.

There is a 15 percent chance of severe weather along and north of a line from Atoka to Mena Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Severe weather details will depend on the position of a cold front. Changes to the forecast should be expected.

Above normal temperatures continue this week with low rain and storm chances for parts of the area.

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Areas of Severe Thunderstorms, Critical Fire Weather, and HeatRisk for Monday

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK