Areas of Severe Thunderstorms, Critical Fire Weather, and HeatRisk for Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday across parts of the Southeast U.S. Elevated to critical fire weather including gusty winds and low relative humidity is forecast Monday over much of the northern Great Plains. Above normal temperatures in the Southeast and Southwest U.S. will bring moderate to isolated major HeatRisk Monday. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Sat, May 16, 2026 at 11:30:37 am CDT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Tuesday

Forecast Summary

A Marginal risk for severe weather exists Sunday afternoon and evening across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

Monday afternoon into Monday night currently looks to feature the best chance for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with an Enhanced Risk across western Osage and Pawnee counties and a Slight Risk extending eastward to a Eureka Springs to Fort Smith to Antlers line. A Marginal Risk extends across the rest of northwest and west central Arkansas, as well as far southeast Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather, including higher end threats, will be possible.

There is a 15 percent chance of severe weather along and north of a line from Atoka to Mena Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Severe weather details will depend on the position of a cold front. Changes to the forecast should be expected.

The threat for excessive rainfall looks to peak on Tuesday. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists along and southeast of I-44, with a Marginal Risk for areas to the northwest of I-44. Average amounts from 0.5 to 1.5 inches should be expected, with localized totals in the 2 to 3 inch range. Localized flash flooding may result.

Periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances will exist through Saturday, with more organized and widespread thunderstorms and severe weather potential likely to develop late in the weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler weather toward the early to middle part of next week.

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Areas of Severe Thunderstorms, Critical Fire Weather, and HeatRisk for Monday

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK