Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/12/2026 05:11:00 AM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 111911
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
911 AM HST Mon May 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will continue through the week. Showers will
favor windward and mauka areas, most frequently at night and
during the early morning hours. An upper level disturbance may
bring a slight uptick in trade wind shower coverage late this week
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM HST Mon May 11 2026

For this mid morning update, radar and satellite imagery show
clouds and isolated to scattered showers moving into windward and
mauka areas on the east-northeasterly trade wind flow. A weak
surface trough is draped in a nearly horizontal orientation just
north of the state, in the vicinity of Kauai. Clouds and showers
along this boundary will funnel into the western end of the state
today before the trough lifts north and gradually dissipates
tomorrow. Otherwise, ridging at the surface and aloft will
maintain stable, breezy trade wind weather across the state
through midweek.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM HST Mon May 11 2026

Radar this morning shows some isolated to scattered showers
ongoing across the state. In addition satellite shows thin high
clouds continuing to stream over the region from the west-
southwest with lower clouds moving in with the trades.

At upper levels, a ridge north of the islands, spread across much
of the Pacific south of 35 deg N, will dominate our weather for
the upcoming week. A minor weakness in the ridge may develop late
in the week, but guidance is in relatively good agreement that it
won`t be enough to weaken the associated surface ridge.
We will experience a typical trade wind pattern, with showers
mainly windward and mauka with some limited spillover to leeward
areas. Winds look to be moderate to breezy, strong enough to be
concerning for boaters, but probably not strong enough for wind
advisories on land.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 911 AM HST Mon May 11 2026

Stable trade wind weather is expected today, with trades
increasing a bit more to breezy levels by the afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers will continue to ride in with the trade
winds, especially over Kauai. Showers will be most prevalent in
the overnight through morning periods, which could produce brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail at area
terminals. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east
sections of Kauai due to some lingering moisture in the area.

AIRMET Tango is also in effect for low-level turbulence downwind
of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the
next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM HST Mon May 11 2026

High pressure remains in place north of the Hawaiian Islands this
week in maintenance of fresh to locally strong trades continuing
into next weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

A small medium period NW swell maintains small surf along
N and W shores today. Another small long period NW swell arrives
Wednesday afternoon and peaks early Thursday.

Two additional small long period S swells arrive today and on
Thursday keeping surf heights along S facing shores above flat
levels. Surf along E shores remains below normal in the near
term, with increasing surf peaking by Wednesday as trade winds
strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Farris
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Bohlin