Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 04/12/2026 04:54:00 PM UTC

                        
700
FXHW60 PHFO 120654
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
854 PM HST Sat Apr 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread over the western
half of the state tonight and become heavy over central portions
of the state Sunday into Sunday night. Flash flooding is possible.
The heaviest rain is currently anticipated over Oahu and Molokai,
and possibly Kauai.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 814 PM HST Sat Apr 11 2026

The current forecast remains well on track, highlighting light
winds through the next several days. Observations have shown light
rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands, particularly across Maui and
the Big Island, but amounting to under five hundredths of an inch
of precipitation. Latest radar imagery depicts shower activity
moving into the western islands, which lines up well with the
current forecast. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands
through Monday afternoon. Further analysis as this evolves will be
shown on the morning update. Therefore, no amendments will be made
this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

An unstable band of deep tropical moisture will move up from the
south under an upper level disturbance. Weather conditions will
destabilize later tonight, producing widespread MVFR and isolated
IFR conditions statewide with low clouds, showers and thunderstorms
from early Sunday morning through Monday. Light and variable
winds will prevail at all airfields.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration above
1500 ft for Oahu, Molokai and Lanai. Mountain obscuration
coverage will likely be expanded overnight as showers develop.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 814 PM HST Sat Apr 11 2026

A surface trough will linger in the vicinity of the central
islands into early next week, keeping moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds to its east, and light and variable winds to
its west. This weak surface boundary along with an upper level
disturbance moving into the region may help to bring another
round of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through
Sunday. As the surface trough lifts north and high pressure to the
northeast begins to takes over at the surface, gentle to moderate
easterly trades will gradually develop across the Hawaiian
coastal waters by the end of next week.

A medium-period south swell will gradually decline through Monday.
By Tuesday, however, a new south swell will arrive, once again
providing a boost to surf along south facing shores through mid
week before gradually subsiding into the weekend.

A moderate, short to medium-period northwest swell generated by the
gale force low to the northwest filled in early this morning and
is providing small to moderate surf to north and west facing
shores this afternoon. Another northwest reinforcement will arrive
on Sunday and maintain small to moderate surf through the
weekend, followed by a decline in northwest swell energy next
week.

Surf along east facing shores remains below seasonal average with
lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands
forecast through next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island Summits-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa
Plain-Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai
Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-
Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai
Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui
Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-
Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai
West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South
Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-
Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Pierce
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Farris