Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 03/03/2026 04:26:00 PM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 030626
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
826 PM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building north of the state will strengthen trade
winds into the moderate to locally breezy range through Wednesday.
Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas,
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. From Thursday
into the weekend, winds will ease slightly and veer to a more
east-southeast direction, shifting shower activity toward
southeast-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, as well as
some interior areas. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to
remain limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

IR satellite imagery loop from this evening showed pockets of mid
and upper level clouds meandering over Maui County and the Big
Island. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies prevailed with a few low
level cumulus riding in on the trades. RADAR had been rather quiet
this afternoon across the western end of the state with just a
few hundredths of an inch of rainfall accumulation reported along
windward locations. Sea breeze development helped generate
moderate showers over select locations on the Big Island leeward
slopes, such as Keahuolu, Kawainui Stream near Waimea, and Waikii,
all of whom picked up between a quarter to half inch of rainfall.

Shower coverage off the windward coasts of most islands has been
slowly increasing over the last hour or two. This trend is
expected to continue though the remainder of tonight as high
pressure strengthens northeast of the state and brings more robust
easterly trade flow. The gridded forecast is still on track, so
no modifications were needed. Surface high pressure will remain
anchored northeast of the state the next several days and bring
locally breezy easterly trades and scattered night and early
morning windward showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
The broad band of high- and mid-level clouds currently over the
islands, tied to a weakening upper-level disturbance and deeper
moisture plume, will continue to thin and gradually clear through
tonight. As this feature departs, high pressure building to the
northeast will tighten the local pressure gradient, strengthening
easterly trade winds into the moderate to locally breezy range
through Wednesday. This will usher in drier air and a more stable
airmass statewide by midweek.

By Thursday, winds will ease slightly and veer more east-
southeast as the surface high shifts farther northeast and a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Model guidance remains in
good agreement that the front will draw closer late in the week
but likely stall west of the islands. The boundary is then
expected to lift northward over the weekend as a deep low tracks
well northwest of the state. As the large-scale flow weakens
during this period, local sea breezes will likely develop along
terrain-sheltered slopes. Shower activity should remain limited
through the end of the week, with mainly brief passing showers.

Looking ahead to early next week, another front approaching from
the west could bring the next opportunity for more widespread
unsettled weather as southerly flow develops. Details will
continue to be refined over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trade winds have begun to gradually return across the state today
at light to moderate speeds. Expect these trade winds to continue
strengthening tomorrow. Mid to high level clouds are still over
the islands from Oahu to the Big Island, but will continue to move
out of the area through tonight. Expect brief showers to start
focusing over typical windward and mountain areas, with MVFR
conditions expected within showers and VFR conditions elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango is in effect across the islands for upper level
moderate turbulence between FL280-FL360. AIRMET Tango is also in
effect for mid level moderate turbulence from Oahu to Big Island
between 140-FL200. The mid level turbulence will likely weaken by
this evening, while the upper level turbulence will likely
continue through most of tonight, but on a weakening trend. Light
icing is possible in a layer between 130-FL230 due to the mid-
upper level clouds currently over the state.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 800 PM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

Building surface high pressure north of the islands will
strengthen and drift northeast through the week bringing moderate
to locally strong east to east south east winds through Wednesday.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently in effect for the
windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island
through Tuesday. As the winds veer, the SCA will expand to add
Maui County and Big Island windward waters through Wednesday
afternoon. Looking towards the ending of the week, winds look to
veer to the east southeast and weaken slightly as the ridge moves
closer to the islands.

The current moderate medium period northwest swell has peaked this
afternoon below High Surf Advisory levels and will gradually
decline through the rest of the week. The next small to moderate
northwest swell looks to build in Saturday and hold through the
weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain choppy as fresh trade
winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state. This will keep
surf along exposed east-facing shores somewhat elevated.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small to tiny, with no
significant swells forecast for at least the next several days.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM HST Wednesday for
Big Island Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Thomas
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Shigesato