Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 03/27/2026 05:01:00 AM UTC

                        
849
FXHW60 PHFO 261901
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
901 AM HST Thu Mar 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A drier and more stable trade wind pattern is expected into at
least the middle of next week. Showers should be mostly focused
along windward and mauka locations through the period. Nights will
be cool in sheltered areas this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 830 AM HST Thu Mar 26 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows a low level band of scattered
clouds with embedded showers just north of Kauai this morning.
Latest high resolution model guidance shows this band moving over
Kauai later this afternoon and Oahu and Maui County this evening
into early Friday morning. A weak front marked by a band of
shallow clouds with embedded showers is expected to arrive Friday
night and will push through the state into Saturday with and area
of moisture lingering around windward Big Island through the day
Saturday. Given the dry stable atmosphere, showers are expected to
be light to moderate at most and be confined mainly to windward
and mauka areas as breezy northeasterly winds hold through Friday
before strengthening to windy speeds Saturday into Sunday. The
near term precipitation forecast has been updated to include this
slight increase in precipitation for this evening and again Friday
night into Saturday. The probability of precipitation has been
lowered Sunday given the drier air following the weak front which
will lower dewpoints into mid to upper 50`s state wide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Light trade wind showers were detected by radar this morning along
windward and mauka areas. Satellite shows typical clouds expected
for a trade wind pattern. Winds will continue to ease today before
picking back up slightly through the weekend as a weak front
moves through. This front will bring another shot of dry air to
the region. Lowering dewpoints through Monday should allow for
cool nights in most areas. Another plus from the dry air will be
enhanced evaporation, helping to eliminate standing water from
the recent flooding and perhaps aid in cleanup.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly dry and stable conditions with moderate northeast trade
winds will prevail across the island chain over the next 24 h.
Brief periods with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible in passing
showers, mainly for windward sites.

&&

.MARINE...

A low pressure system northeast of the islands and a high
pressure system to the far northwest of the Hawaii region will
keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through the week.
Wind speeds will briefly ease through Friday, and the Small Craft
Advisory was cancelled this morning. Fresh to strong trade winds
bring a return of SCA conditions from Saturday into the first half
of next week as high pressure builds north of the state.

A medium period swell will peak around 3 feet today before
gradually declining through the weekend. For east facing shores,
short period wind wave energy from northeasterly trade winds will
hold into the weekend. Strengthening northeasterly winds this
weekend and a swath of gales associated with a low around one
thousand miles northeast of the islands will lead to the potential
for high surf advisories along north and east facing shores from
Sunday into early next week.

For south facing shores, small background energy pulses will keep
surf heights above flat conditions into early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Almanza
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Bohlin