Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/08/2026 12:01:00 PM UTC

                        
996
FXHW60 PHFO 080201
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
401 PM HST Thu May 7 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Gentle trade winds will hold into Friday. Friday will be cloudier
as an upper level clouds increase and a band of moisture moves in
from the east increasing clouds and showers for windward and
mauka areas. Saturday and Sunday the lingering band of moisture
and weak upper level instability will allow for an increase chance
of clouds and showers developing along windward and mauka areas.
Breezy trade winds will also develop as a broad surface ridge
builds north of the state. The ridge will continue to strengthen
north of the state next week resulting breezy to locally wind
tradewinds in a more dry and stable atmosphere.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite and radar imagery show some clouds and showers have
build over interior and mauka areas as a hybrid seabreeze and
tradewind pattern continues. Expect some leeward areas to clear
out overnight as land breeze develops shortly after sunset. Light
to gentle tradewinds are expected to continue through Friday
morning so can expect another repeat of seabreezes developing
Friday morning allowing clouds and showers to develop over leeward
and interior areas. The one limiting factor for Friday morning
and afternoon would be the increase in upper level clouds that
could reduce afternoon convection as the subtropical jet moves
overhead. A weak trough just east of the Big Island will track
northwest early Friday morning that will increase the chance of
precipitation for windward and mauka areas, particularly for Big
Island and Maui County. The high northwest of the state will jag
southeast by Friday afternoon as the weak surface trough lifts
north allowing tradewinds to gradually strengthen to gentle to
breezy speeds.

Saturday through the weekend a weak upper level trough will move
over the state as a pool of moisture remains over the state that
could make for taller clouds and more moderate trade wind showers
developing over windward and mauka areas and spilling over to
leeward areas as inversion heights become more elevated.

A more robust, vertically stacked ridging is forecast to expand
in from the west early next week. This will provide greater
stability in tandem with a relatively drier atmosphere. Thus,
overall statewide shower activity will be on the decline going
into the middle of next week. Tradewind speeds are also expected
to become more breezy to locally windy as a strong surface high
develops north of the state.


&&

.AVIATION...

Light to moderate trades will gradually build back across the
area by the start of the weekend, resulting in clouds and showers
beginning to favor windward and mauka areas. However, the
background wind field should remain light enough to support sea
breeze development, allowing for clouds and showers to form over
some leeward and interior areas each afternoon. MVFR conditions
are possible in any shower activity. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect across
portions of Kauai and Oahu due to clouds and showers. Conditions
are expected to improve this evening.


&&

.MARINE...

A weak trough east of the islands will keep trade winds light to
locally moderate across all local waters through Friday. By this
weekend, a surface ridge building northwest of the state will
bring a return of moderate to locally fresh trades. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for the typical windy waters surrounding
Maui and the Big Island by early next week as the high expands
eastward.

A moderate, long-period northwest swell will peak this evening for
Kauai and Oahu and continue to build this evening and peak overnight
for Maui and the Big Island. Elevated surf along north and west facing
beaches will gradually decline Friday into the weekend as the swell
fades.

A small, long-period south swell should provide a small bump in south
shore surf through the weekend. Another small, long-period south swell
is possible mid-next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain below normal during the
next several days due to the lack of strong trades over and
upstream of the islands. East shore surf will gradually increase
this weekend into early next week as trades make a slow return.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Quesada