Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/02/2026 11:37:00 AM UTC

                        
277
FXHW60 PHFO 020137
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
337 PM HST Fri May 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades weaken during the weekend as they
deliver clouds and showers windward and mauka. Winds further
diminish next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Benign weather for the forseeable future as trades deliver showers
to windward and mauka areas, mainly overnight. Deeper moisture and a
higher/weaker inversion beneath the resident closed upper low will
favor comparatively increased coverage over Windward Big Island and
possibly Maui through tomorrow. Trades then weaken this weekend into
early next week as height falls spread across the Central Pacific.
This will cut into shower coverage and make interior zones feel
hotter. Extended guidance indicates further weakening of trades next
week with potential for a light/variable pattern establishing over
the islands as a weak and shallow remnant frontal zone approaches
Kauai from the west. Resulting sea breezes in the presence of high
stability will produce little or no afternoon shower activity except
perhaps over Kauai where moisture along the aforementioned frontal
zone will be slightly deeper.

&&

.AVIATION...

An upper-level low remains anchored northeast of the state and
will continue to enhance cloud and shower activity across
windward and mountain areas, resulting in primarily MVFR
conditions within showers. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail.
Moderate to breezy trade winds continue through today, but will
slightly weaken this weekend.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence
across leeward sides of all islands below 8000 feet due to the
breezy trade winds. These conditions may improve tomorrow as winds
begin to weaken.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over windward
areas of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Expect these
conditions to continue through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Little change to the forecast this afternoon. The incoming swell
seems largely on track, so no change to that timing. The Small
Craft Advisory remains in place for all waters until 6pm or so
today, and then will be scaled back to the typical windier waters
near Maui County and the Big Island.

A high pressure ridge remains to the north of the islands, driving
trade winds to the region. The ridge will weaken through the
weekend as a front passes north of the islands. Winds in turn will
weaken over the weekend, and further ease Tuesday into the middle
of the week.

An incoming northwesterly swell will bring rising surf to north
and west shores overnight. The longer period energy has been slow
to reach Buoy 51001 to the northwest of the islands. Continuing to
monitor to see if the swell arrives large than expected. Surf
heights could approach advisory levels during the peak of the
swell arrival. This swell is expected to gradually ease through
the weekend. Another, slightly smaller northwest swell is
expected early next week, maintaining elevated surf along north
and west- facing shores. Looking ahead, guidance indicates yet
another long- period northwest (320 deg) swell may arrive late
next week, generated by a developing storm near Japan that is
forecast to lift northeast near the Kuril Islands over the
weekend.

Surf along south-facing shores will trend up over the weekend as a
long-period south-southwest pulse arrives. Expect a peak later
in the weekend and into Monday before lowering.

As trade winds weaken this weekend, expect surf along east-
facing shores to trend downward.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...M Ballard