Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 04/24/2026 04:25:00 PM UTC

                        
034
FXHW60 PHFO 240625
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
825 PM HST Thu Apr 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are filtering back into the
region due to a surface ridge building north of the islands.
Rainfall will be limited into Saturday due to an upper level ridge
over the islands. However low level moisture riding in on the
trades will bring more typical windward and mauka showers by the
end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast this evening, and not expecting any
significant changes with the morning package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM HST Thu Apr 23 2026

A low pressure system east-northeast of the islands, combined
with low about 1000 miles north-northwest of the islands are
helping to disrupt the trade wind flow. However the low to the
east-northeast will continue to weaken today as it moves to the
east away from the islands. The low to the north- northwest will
lift to the north. As this happens, the ridge to the north will
strengthen, and moderate to locally breezy trades will filter
back over the islands tonight into Friday. The global models
agree on mid level ridging over the region which will help to
maintain a stable airmass, limiting rainfall totals over the next
few days.

The global models are in good agreement that moisture from the
aforementioned low will get caught up in the trade wind flow over
the weekend, and make its way into the islands. This will help us
return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern with some
heavier showers over the windward and mauka areas, along with the
clouds and showers that form over the Kona slopes during the
afternoon from Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 331 PM HST Thu Apr 23 2026

Moderate northeasterly trade winds will prevail over the islands
over the next several days. VFR conditions are expected, with
isolated showers and brief MVFR conditions possible for primarily
windward and mountain sites. No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM HST Thu Apr 23 2026

A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds through much of next week. A weak
trough moving over the state this weekend into early next week
will cause the trade winds to briefly weaken and shift more
easterly and will bring an increase of showers especially over
windward waters. Brief periods of locally strong winds will be
possible over the windier areas around Maui County and the Big
Island through next week.

A pair of gale lows in the North Pacific will send a series of
small northwest to north-northwest swells Friday night into the
first half of next week. These swells should help maintain near
average surf along north facing shores into next week. A storm-
force low developing this weekend near the Aleutian Islands should
send a slightly larger northwest swell towards the middle of next
week.

The current short to medium period north-northeast swell will
continue to decline this evening. A small fetch of strong
northeast winds associated with the weak low northeast of the
state, could provide some reinforcing short-period swell Friday
into Saturday. Otherwise, below average surf is expected along
east facing shores next week due to the lack of strong trade winds
locally or upstream of the state.

Small background energy from the west will continue to linger the
next few days and fade out this weekend. A small southwest bump
from the Tasman Sea that passed across American Samoa`s 51209
buoy yesterday is expected to arrive this weekend. No significant
south swells are expected through the first half of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...M Ballard
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Kino