Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/24/2026 05:28:00 AM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 231928
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
928 AM HST Sat May 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to locally windy trades will weaken slightly through
Monday, then hold at moderate strength through the remainder of
the week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with little
rainfall over most leeward sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
A relatively moist band was moving through the islands as of 9 AM
HST, but satellite and radar show that this will be replaced by a
much drier band later this morning. This drier air should last
into mid-afternoon, then be replaced by partly to mostly cloudy
skies and scattered showers (mainly windward and mauka). Winds
remain breezy, and the wind advisory will remain in effect until 6
PM HST. The current forecast handles all this well and no update
is planned at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM HST Sat May 23 2026

Satellite and radar trends this morning show scattered showers
across windward and mauka locations within the low clouds rinding
in on the trades. A surface high centered about 950 miles north of
the islands is driving the strong trade wind flow, and mid level
ridging northwest of the state is creating stable conditions.
Under this environment, winds continue to be accelerated over and
downwind of terrain, and the Wind Advisory has been extended
through tonight for portions of Big Island and Maui. Even though
the atmosphere is stable and PWATs are near to below seasonal
averages, trades will continue to focus showers over windward and
mauka areas. Aside from a few lingering showers over the Kona
slopes of the Big Island limited rainfall is expected across
leeward areas. These showers and moderate trades will continue
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue today. A band of
increased moisture is currently providing an uptick in low clouds
and showers to mainly windward and mauka areas with intermittent
MVFR and even brief IFR conditions observed. These clouds and
showers should clear out by late morning, leaving VFR conditions
to generally prevail. As seen upstream on satellite, drier air
will filter in and sparser clouds and isolated to scattered
showers can be expected to move in on the breezy trades through
the rest of the period.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for all
windward areas this morning, with conditions expected to improve
by late morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and
downwind of terrain as a result of the stronger trades, which is
expected to continue into at least Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain
strong to near gale force trade winds today. The high will begin
a weakening trend tonight, then shift northeast of the state
during the first half of next week. Strong trade winds will
gradually trend down to moderate to locally strong speeds by
Tuesday and then hold through the end of next week.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters
remains in effect through early Sunday morning to account for both
wind and seas. The SCA conditions will likely continue for
locally windier waters through the first half of next week.

Choppy and rough surf can be expected along east-facing shores
through the rest of the weekend. Based on nearshore buoy
observations this morning, surf along east-facing shores is
expected to remain just below advisory thresholds through the
weekend. It will then trend down next week as trade wind speeds
gradually ease locally and upstream.

Surf along north-facing shores will see a small, moderate period
north-northwest swell fill in today and peak by tonight. This will
provide a small boost in surf heights along north and west facing
shores through Sunday. A slightly larger northwest swell will
fill in Tuesday and peak Wednesday, which could bring near to
slightly above average summertime surf for north and west facing
shores.

A small, long period south swell will peak today, boosting surf
to near to slightly above average. This swell will begin to fade
on Sunday. Another similar south swell will slowly fill in Tuesday,
peak Wednesday, then slowly fade during the second half of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North-
Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Maui Central Valley
North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward
West-South Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$
SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Vaughan