Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/24/2026 11:17:00 AM UTC

                        
523
FXHW60 PHFO 240117
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 PM HST Sat May 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Trades will weaken slightly this evening before strengthening
again Sunday afternoon. After that, we should see moderate breezy
trades well into next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka
areas, rarely reaching leeward sections as moisture is relatively
low for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and radar show scattered showers over windward and
mauka areas, especially on Maui, this afternoon. These showers are
forecast to continue overnight. Winds were still reaching wind
advisory criteria as of 3 PM HST, but are expected to weaken to
below criteria this evening. Therefore, the wind advisory will be
allowed to expire on schedule at 6 PM HST.

Models remain consistent in showing an extended period of trades
lasting for at least 7 days. Ridging aloft to our north will
enhance surface ridging to our northeast through the middle of
next week. After that, there may be a replacement of the ridge
aloft after a brief period of weak troughing. But the surface
ridge, and therefore the trade winds, are forecast to remain
strong. Expect a continuation of breezy to occasionally strong
trade winds, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly
windward and mauka, through Friday. PW values will hover around an
inch over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally windy trades will continue through Sunday and
usher clouds and isolated to scattered showers into windward and
mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible as showers
pass through. Otherwise, VFR conditions will generally prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level turbulence over and
downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue into at least
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain
strong trade winds through the rest of the weekend. The high will
begin a weakening trend tonight, then shift northeast of the state
during the first half of the week. Strong trade winds will
gradually trend down to moderate to locally strong speeds by
Tuesday, then hold through the end of next week. The Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Sunday afternoon for all
Hawaiian waters. It will likely need to be extended further for
locally windier waters through the first half of the week.

Choppy and rough surf can be expected along east-facing shores
through the rest of the weekend. Based on nearshore buoy
observations from today, surf along east-facing shores is
expected to remain just below advisory thresholds through the
weekend. It will then trend down as trade wind speeds gradually
ease locally and upstream.

A small, moderate period north-northwest swell will peak tonight,
then gradually decline Sunday into Monday. This will provide a
small boost in surf heights along north and west facing shores. A
slightly larger northwest swell will fill in Tuesday and peak
Wednesday, which could bring near to slightly above average
summertime surf for north and west facing shores.

A small, long period south swell will peak this evening, resulting
in surf at near or slightly above average. This swell will begin
to fade on Sunday. Another similar south swell will slowly fill
in Tuesday, peak Wednesday, then slowly fade during the second
half of next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North-
Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kohala-Maui Central Valley
North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward
West-South Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Vaughan