Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/06/2026 04:35:00 PM UTC

                        
320
FXHW60 PHFO 060635
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
835 PM HST Tue May 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday
as a weak trough lingers near the state. Interior clouds and a
few showers will develop during the afternoon hours, followed by
partial clearing overnight. Trade winds will gradually return
Thursday and Friday, bringing a more typical pattern of mainly
windward and mauka showers with a few afternoon showers over
leeward areas. A slight increase in showers remains possible this
weekend as an upper disturbance approaches the islands, followed
by stronger trade winds and more stable conditions early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The humid land and sea breeze pattern with dewpoints hovering in
the upper 60s will continue through Wednesday as the weak trough
meanders near the central portion of the island chain. Expect
partial clearing overnight, followed by another round of interior
and leeward clouds and isolated to scattered showers Wednesday
afternoon. Shower chances may remain slightly enhanced near
central islands where the trough is located.

Kilauea eruption episode 46 ended a few hours ago, and the
Ashfall Advisory for portions of the Big Island has ended.

Light to moderate trade winds will gradually return Thursday and
Friday as the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of the state.
Showers will become more focused over windward and mauka areas,
though localized afternoon sea breeze clouds and a few showers
may still develop over sheltered leeward terrain. Dewpoints are
expected to ease back into the mid 60s later this week, bringing
some relief from the recent humidity.

By the weekend, an upper-level disturbance approaching the region
could lead to a slight increase in showers, though uncertainty
remains elevated due to model differences regarding the timing
and strength of these features. More stable conditions and
stronger trade winds are expected to return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A light background wind prevails with land breezes expected
overnight into Wednesday morning. Expect VFR conditions as cloud
and shower coverage clear throughout the overnight period. Light
winds are expected through midweek.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough over the far northwest offshore waters will slowly track
south through the islands, reaching the central waters Wednesday.
This, combined with a larger synoptic scale low pressure system
far to the north will lead to light and variable winds, with sea
and land breezes present near the immediate coasts. The
subtropical ridge building north of the state will bring a return
of light to moderate trades Thursday and Friday, with the trades
strengthening to moderate and fresh levels over the weekend. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through at least Friday.

A moderate medium-period northwest swell will gradually fade over
the next couple of days. A new long period swell originating from
a gale force low south of Kamchatka will build Wednesday night
and give another boost to north and west shore surf Thursday and
Friday. Surf will gradually decline over the weekend into early
next week.

A series of overlapping south swells will keep intermittent small
surf rolling into south facing shores. A small, long-period swell
arriving Wednesday from a storm-force low that tracked southeast
of New Zealand last week will likely provide a small bump in south
shore surf through the end of the week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal during the
next several days due to the lack of strong trades over and
upstream of the islands.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ashfall Advisory until 8 PM HST this evening for Big Island
Southeast-Big Island East.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...Thomas