Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/11/2026 05:33:00 AM UTC

                        
793
FXHW60 PHFO 101933
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
933 AM HST Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will exit west of the state early this morning,
however some showery conditions will linger over Kauai through the
morning hours, while rather dry conditions prevail over the rest
of the state. The trough will dissipate west of the islands
tonight and Monday, with trade winds increasing to breezy levels
by late Monday or Monday night, and continuing through late this
week. A fairly typical trade wind pattern will become established
in the wake of the trough, with showers favoring windward and
mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

An area of stronger showers has moved off to the west of Kauai as
expected, but additional isolated to scattered trade wind showers
are still forecast for the remainder of the day on all islands.
These showers will be mainly windward and mauka. Otherwise, we
should see partly cloudy skies for most folks. No updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM HST Sun May 10 2026
Currently at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure is
located over Kauai, while a ridge axis is positioned several
hundred miles north of the island chain. Breezy northeasterly
trade winds are present to the west of the trough, while moderate
east-northeasterly trades prevail to its east. Infrared satellite
imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows
scattered to numerous showers moving into windward sections of
Oahu and Kauai, with much fewer showers moving into windward areas
of the other islands. Main short term focus revolves around trade
wind trends and rain chances during the next couple of days.

The weak trough of low pressure will continue to push slowly west
today, exiting to the west of Kauai prior to daybreak this
morning. Showers will be most prevalent over windward sections of
Kauai this morning, with a decrease expected for the afternoon
hours. Elsewhere, rather dry trade wind weather is expected today,
with only a few mainly windward and mauka showers. Winds will
ease following the passage of the trough, with moderate trades
then prevailing statewide through the remainder of the day.

The weak trough will dampen out west of the state tonight and
Monday, while a ridge of high pressure remains in place several
hundred miles north of the state. This will bring a gradual
increase in trade wind speeds, with breezy conditions becoming
established across the entire island chain by late Monday or
Monday night. Breezy conditions are then expected to hold through
late in the week as high pressure remains firmly in place to the
north of the state. A fairly typical trade wind pattern is
expected to prevail through late this week, with showers favoring
windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and
early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Stable and mostly dry trade wind weather is expected today with
trades increasing into the moderate to locally breezy category
later this morning into the afternoon. The one exception is over
Kauai, where we will continue to see showers with periods of MVFR
conditions.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over Kauai and will likely
continue through much of the day and into tonight.

AIRMET Tango will likely be needed for low-level turb with trades
strengthening this afternoon into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM HST Sun May 10 2026

A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaiian
Islands this week with easterly trade winds blowing in the fresh
to locally strong range lasting into next weekend.

A small medium period northwest swell will maintain small surf
heights along north and west facing shores today, shifting out of
the north to north northwest direction by tonight and then fading
out by Tuesday. The next small long period northwest swell pulses
into the region by Wednesday afternoon, peaking by Thursday
morning, then decreasing from Friday onward.

Small long period south swell energy will fade today with two
additional small long period background south swells moving in on
Monday and Thursday night. Surf along east facing shores will
remain below normal today, with increasing surf heights peaking by
Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Bohlin