Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/05/2026 11:50:00 AM UTC

                        
210
FXHW60 PHFO 050150
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
350 PM HST Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades hold through today. A sea breeze pattern then
develops for the midweek period followed by returning light
trades. Limited rainfall during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Ridging will weaken in response to a series of cold fronts
passing well north of the state. This will lead to a gradual
easing of the trade winds beginning Tuesday, with local land and
sea breeze circulations becoming more dominant through midweek.
From Tuesday through Thursday, a more humid air mass will settle
over the islands, with dewpoints potentially climbing into the
mid- to upper-60s. These dewpoints combined with the afternoon sea
breezes will support localized afternoon cloud buildups and a few
brief showers over interior and leeward areas, followed by
clearing at night as land breezes develop.

By the latter part of the week into the weekend, moisture and
rainfall chances may trend up. Global guidance indicates upper
heights lowering as an upper-level disturbance approaches the
region. In addition, a weak attendant frontal boundary may move
into the area. However, there remains considerable spread among
the model solutions regarding the timing and strength of these
features, so confidence in the details remains limited at this
time.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate trade winds will deliver showers over windward and
mountain areas through this evening before weakening overnight.
Light winds tomorrow will allow a land and sea breeze pattern to
take place with possible afternoon showers over island interiors.
Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible in showers,
otherwise VFR is expected.

AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration
over windward areas of Maui, but expect conditions to improve
overnight. No other AIRMET`s are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...

A trough entering the northwest waters on Tuesday will cause trade
winds to weaken and veer southeasterly north of around 20N. Land
and sea breezes will be possible as the ridge is weakened on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
expected to redevelop for the latter half of the week as weak
ridging to the north makes a recovery. High pressure builds into
the northwest by the weekend.

A moderate northwest swell built to 5 ft at 13 seconds on
offshore buoys today. This swell will pass through the islands,
causing surf along north and west facing shores to build this
evening and peak tonight into early Tuesday above seasonal
averages. The swell will then slowly decline through Wednesday. A
larger northwest swell arriving on Wednesday could produce surf
near the High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower Friday into
next weekend.

A south swell will gradually decrease tonight into Tuesday, with
small pulses keeping surf from going flat for the latter half of the
week.

Trade wind swell will remain below seasonal average for much of the
week, keeping below average surf along east facing shores.&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Quesada