Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/11/2026 03:46:00 PM UTC

                        
187
FXHW60 PHFO 110546
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
746 PM HST Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak surface trough that brought areas of showers to much of the
state the past few days has finally moved west of Kauai. Trade
winds will now become fully established and continue through the
upcoming week. We will see showers favoring windward and mauka
areas, most frequently at night and during the early morning
hours. Overall, the next week will be drier for most folks than
this past week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

Minor adjustments were made to PoP. Previous forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM HST Sun May 10 2026

A surface trough which brought areas of showers, some briefly
moderate to heavy, has moved just west of Kauai this afternoon.
The state will see drier conditions for the remainder of this
afternoon, and for most of the coming week. Radar this afternoon
shows just a few showers in the Kona region on Big Island, with
isolated windward showers elsewhere. In addition to lower clouds
associated with showers, satellite showed thin high clouds
continuing to stream over the region from the west-southwest.

At upper levels, a ridge north of the islands, spread across much
of the Pacific south of 35 deg N, will dominate our weather for
the upcoming week. A minor weakness in the ridge may develop late
in the week, but guidance is in agreement that it won`t be enough
to weaken the associated surface ridge significantly. Therefore,
trades will continue for the foreseeable future. We will
experience a typical trade wind pattern, with showers mainly
windward and mauka, and most frequent at night. Wind speeds are
forecast to be moderate to breezy, strong enough to be concerning
for boaters, but probably not strong enough for wind advisories on
land.

&&

.AVIATION...

Stable and mostly dry trade wind weather is expected through
Monday, with trades increasing a bit more to breezy levels by
Monday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to
ride in with the trade winds, especially over Kauai and windward
areas. Showers will be most prevalent in these locations during
the overnight through morning periods, which could produce brief
MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail at area
terminals.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north through east sections of
Kauai this evening due to some lingering moisture in the area.

AIRMET Tango is also in effect for low-level turbulence downwind
of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through the
next several days. In addition, AIRMET Tango has been issued this
evening for moderate upper level turbulence over the islands as
well. Model guidance indicates that upper level turbulence is
expected to largely diminish by Monday morning as the upper jet
over the islands weakens and moves farther east.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM HST Sun May 10 2026

High pressure remains in place north of the Hawaiian Islands this
week in maintenance of fresh to locally strong trades continuing
into next weekend. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

A small medium period NW swell maintains small surf along
N and W shores today. A new slightly larger N swell arrives late
tonight peaking during Monday. Another small long period NW swell
arrives Wednesday afternoon and peaks early Thursday.

Small long period S swell has faded through today. However, two
additional small long period S swells arrive Monday and Thursday.
Surf along E shores remains below normal in the near term, with
increasing surf peaking by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Walsh
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...JVC