Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 02/03/2026 04:40:00 PM UTC

                        
508
FXHW60 PHFO 030640
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

A cold front currently moving across Oahu this evening will
progress down the island chain tonight, finally stalling out and
diminishing near the Big Island by Tuesday afternoon. The gusty
southwesterly winds will be tapering off tonight as the front
pushes through. Cool and dry conditions will follow behind the
frontal passage. A stronger weather system may produce more
significant weather impacts across from late Friday onward with
the potential for periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

Forecast continues to remain on track with the front currently
moving through Oahu this evening. A brief period of moderate to
locally heavy rain with gusty winds has been observed with this
front. The front should be moving into Maui County tonight. As far
as winds, the strong gusty winds that we observed earlier in the
day will generally be decreasing behind the front. A Public
Information Statement (PNSHFO) was issued a few hours ago with
wind gust reports during the day today. Maui County will continue
to be windy through this evening, with winds decreasing behind the
frontal passage tonight. Tuesday should be a dry and cool day
across most of the state. The one exception is over the Big
Island, where some showers will be possible. But overall rainfall
amounts will be light on the Big Island on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows bands of cumulus clouds
with embedded showers streaming northeastward across the state
from the southwest, out ahead of a cold front currently moving
across Kauai. Strong to locally gusty southwest winds have firmly
increased to Wind Advisory levels across all Hawaiian Islands,
with sustained speeds generally in the 20 to 30 mph range and
gusts frequently reaching 40 to 50 mph this afternoon. The
strongest winds continue to favor higher terrain and areas north
and east of island terrain features. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect through tonight to address these conditions, though winds
are expected to ease below advisory levels as the front passes and
winds shift out of the northwest. Even stronger winds are
expected across the highest summits on the Big Island, where
speeds will increase to warning levels later this afternoon and
evening. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the summits of
Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa through Wednesday.

The cold front is currently crossing Kauai this afternoon and
remains on track to reach Oahu this evening, Maui County late
tonight, and the Big Island Tuesday morning, though with
noticeably weaker shower activity by the time it reaches the
eastern end of the state. The most significant rainfall is
expected to occur during a four to six hour window as the main
frontal band moves through each island. Cooler and drier
northwesterly winds will follow the front, allowing overnight and
early morning temperatures to dip into the 60s as clearer skies
and drier air promote more efficient radiational cooling.

Lighter winds are expected to return from Tuesday night through
Thursday as a weak high pressure system settles just north of the
islands and drifts eastward. By Thursday night into Friday, winds
will shift back out of the southwest ahead of the next cold front
approaching from the northwest. Current guidance suggests this
front may stall near Kauai and Oahu from Saturday night into
Sunday as the associated cold pool aloft evolves into a cutoff low
near the islands.

Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding the impacts of this
cutoff low heading into the weekend. Recent model trends show the
front slowing sooner and stalling farther north than earlier
forecasts suggested, with the upper low also trending westward
over time. If this system sets up close enough to the islands, it
could produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms, with an
increased risk for flooding from Saturday through Monday. At this
time, the highest potential for significant impacts appears to be
across the western islands, including Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu.
However, impacts will depend heavily on the eventual placement and
evolution of the upper low. This system will continue to be
closely monitored as forecast confidence improves over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

Gusty southwest winds continue ahead of an advancing cold front
that is bringing a round of heavy showers. These showers will
bring MVFR conditions, with isolated IFR conditions possible. This
front is currently exiting Oahu to the east. It will continue on
to Maui County overnight before weakening as it reaches the Big
Island Tuesday morning. Northwest winds will follow the front,
then becoming north Tuesday night.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across Kauai,
Oahu, Maui, and Lanai. This may need to be expanded as the front
moves southeast across the island chain.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
below 5000 feet over and downwind (north and east) of mountain
terrain across all islands. The strongest turbulence will be felt
surface to 2000 feet in these areas. Conditions are expected to
improve overnight as winds weaken behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 840 PM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

Rough marine conditions will persist into Tuesday as strong winds
associated with a cold front advancing down the island chain
combine with a significant northwest swell. The front, currently
moving through Oahu this evening, will reach Maui County later
this evening, then move into the Big Island waters where it is
expected to stall and weaken Tuesday into midweek. Strong to near
gale force southwest winds ahead of the boundary will quickly veer
to the northwest in its wake as the front passes through.

A progressive winter pattern will continue thereafter, with
another cold front approaching the area by the weekend. Local
winds will briefly ease to light to moderate easterlies by
Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind the departing front.
Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds may return during the
second half of the week as the next system draws closer.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will rapidly
build late tonight through Tuesday as a significant northwest
swell generated by a broad storm-force Aleutian low arrives and
builds down the island chain. Offshore buoys are already
responding this evening, with rapidly rising heights aligning well
with forecast guidance. The relatively short travel distance from
the fetch region, combined with locally strong northwest winds
veering more northerly through Tuesday, will produce very rough
surf with a mix of short- to medium-period energy. Surf will reach
the extra-large to giant range on Tuesday near the peak of the
event for exposed coasts of the smaller islands, with heights well
above warning levels lingering into Wednesday before gradually
lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Provided the more
westerly angle (300-320 degrees), much of this energy will become
blocked for most north facing shores of the Big Island. Heights
will potentially return to warning levels for exposed coasts
Friday night into Saturday from a developing storm-force low over
the far northwest Pacific.

Water levels are running higher than predicted combined with
onshore winds and warning-level surf will increase the threat of
coastal flooding impacts along exposed coasts. Overwash onto
vulnerable low- lying roadways and properties is likely,
especially during the late-night peak tide cycle and around
daybreak Tuesday.

Surf along exposed south-facing shores will remain rough
overnight due to locally strong southwest winds ahead of the cold
front. Conditions will improve from west to east late tonight
through Tuesday as winds veer to the north-northwest and offshore
flow develops in the wake of the boundary.

Nuisance coastal flooding will remain likely from midnight
through daybreak Tuesday due to elevated water levels, even in
sheltered coastal areas away from direct surf exposure. The
potential for impacts will ease beginning Wednesday as tides
gradually lower through midweek.



&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit-
Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-
Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward-
Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai
Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-
Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-
Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-
Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward
Haleakala.

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East-
Big Island North-Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai
West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-
Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui
County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward
Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Kino
DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Gibbs