Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 03/30/2026 11:50:00 AM UTC

                        
031
FXHW60 PHFO 300150
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
350 PM HST Sun Mar 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and gusty northeast trade winds will prevail through
Tuesday before decreasing a notch midweek, then becoming light and
variable heading into next weekend. A cool and dry airmass should
keep showers light and over windward and mauka areas for the next
few days, except windward areas of the Big Island where lingering
moisture could keep scattered showers through Monday. A cold
upper trough may slightly enhance trade wind showers during the
overnight and early morning hours each day this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1034 mb high to the far northwest and a 1011 mb low to the far
northeast are continuing to drive breezy and gusty northeast
trade winds across the state this afternoon. Current observations
(as of 3 PM HST) show northeast trade winds gusting to between 30
and 40 mph across some of the windier areas statewide. Breezy and
gusty trade winds are expected to remain in place for the next few
days as the high to the northwest remains nearly stationary.
Model guidance continues to keep wind speeds below Wind Advisory
criteria (sustained speeds of 30-39 mph and gusts 50-57 mph),
though a few of the typically windier spots across the state may
edge up pretty close to criteria at times this afternoon through
Tuesday.

With drier air filtering across the state, shower activity is
limited this afternoon, with low level clouds and a few showers
focusing over windward Maui and the Big Island, where the greatest
amount of moisture resides. Generally, in this breezy
northeasterly trade wind pattern, clouds and light showers will
favor north and east facing coasts and slopes, particularly during
the overnight to early morning period. These showers may become
slightly enhanced (produce brief moderate rainfall) at times as an
upper level trough edges over the state and brings much cooler
temperatures aloft. However, limited moisture, along with the
relatively strong low level temperature inversion under the
surface ridge, will help to keep shower activity limited.

By midweek, the high pressure to the northwest is forecast to
weaken and move east, which in turn will allow the trade winds to
ease. Next weekend could see light and variable winds as the
pressure gradient backs off further. With a weak upper level
trough swinging quickly through Friday into Saturday, shower
activity may be enhanced slightly, though moisture still looks to
remain limited and low level forcing, minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy NE trade winds persist across the state today.
Embedded light showers remain limited to windward and mountain
areas, providing brief MVFR conditions within showers while VFR
prevails elsewhere. Expect these conditions to remain steady
through tomorrow.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of
terrain due to breezy tradewinds. AIRMET Tango is also in effect
for moderate turbulence from Maui to Big Island between
FL240-FL360 due to the subtropical jetstream positioned near the
area. This area of mid-upper level turbulence will likely persist
through tonight, and potentially strengthen tomorrow.

No other AIRMET`s are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure NNW of the islands and low pressure to the
NE maintain fresh to strong NE trades through Monday. The gradient
then relaxes as the low dissipates allowing winds to ease and
veer to the E as the high settles to the N through midweek. The
Small Craft Advisory for all waters due to winds and seas remains
in effect through tonight.

The aforementioned low is directing a moderate to large short
period NNE (020) swell that will peak tonight. Given recent
observations at NDBC Buoy 51000, surf will reach the High Surf
Advisory (HSA) threshold for N facing shores, select exposed E
facing shorelines, and West Maui. A High Surf Advisory has
therefore been issued for these zones. This swell will slowly
decline through the week.

The Marine Weather Statement remains in effect beginning at 6pm
today for harbor surges due to the NNE swell, particularly for
Hilo and Kahului Harbors.

Surf along E shores remains short period and choppy due to steady
trade winds with select shorelines also seeing exposure to the
imminent NNE swell. For S shores, a small medium period swell
will provide small surf for the next few days. Surf along W shores
remains small.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kauai North-
Kauai East-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Maui
Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala-Big Island East-Big
Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...JVC