Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 04/29/2026 11:24:00 PM UTC

                        
131
FXHW60 PHFO 291324
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 AM HST Wed Apr 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will prevail through the next
several days, resulting in periods of shower activity across
windward and mauka locations. An upper-level trough and
developing low will slowly move eastward and become stationary
northeast of the islands, enhancing clouds and shower activity.
By the weekend, the upper-level trough is expected to dislodge
and meander northeastward away from the state, however, periods of
showers are expected to continue.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue courtesy of the
broad surface high just north of the Hawaiian Islands. Aloft, an
upper-level low and escorting upper-level trough moving eastward
across the Central Pacific will become stationary just northeast
of the islands later today. This will enhance clouds and shower
activity across the state, namely favoring windward slopes of all
islands, with some possible shower activity drifting into leeward
areas briefly. However, by this weekend, the upper-level trough
and associated low will finally dislodge and exit the region,
though periods of showers will likely continue.

Trades will remain the dominant feature through the next several
days, where showers focus across windward and mauka areas, with
only slight variations in the day to day weather pattern across
the state. Model guidance portrays a shallow cold front and
another upper-level trough approaching the islands from the
northwest early next week. Future forecasts will monitor the
evolution of this system as the week progresses and revise as
necessary.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate easterly trade winds will continue with an upper level
trough producing periods of MVFR conditions in passing showers
mainly over windward mountain areas, and favoring the overnight
to early morning hours. Terrain sheltered leeward areas along the
western island slopes may see afternoon showers as sea breezes
converge with trade winds each day.

No AIRMETs in effect. However, AIRMET Sierra may be needed later
today for mountain obscurations mainly over north and east slopes
of island mountains.


&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh east-northeast trades will continue today as a
weak trough shifts to the west and a ridge builds north of the
state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been issued for the
typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island.
The SCA is likely to be extended through at least Friday before a
trough approaches from the northwest this weekend, which will
lead to a period of more relaxed trade winds.

Surf along north and west facing shores will get a small
reinforcing bump today. An upward trend is then expected during
the second half of the week as another northwest swell arrives
overnight from a storm-force low that tracked into the Bering Sea
this past weekend. Looking further ahead, a storm-force low east
of Japan will send a moderate, longer- period northwest swell
toward the islands for Friday and Saturday, with surf heights
near advisory levels along north and west facing shores.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through much of
the week, with mainly background south to southwest swell
expected. Another south-southwest pulse may arrive this weekend
from recent activity east of New Zealand, providing a small
increase in surf.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain small and choppy
through midweek, with a slight rise possible Thursday and Friday
as trades strengthen.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kahoolawe.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Walsh