Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/06/2026 11:22:00 PM UTC

                        
605
FXHW60 PHFO 061322
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
322 AM HST Wed May 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and humid conditions will persist today as a weak
surface trough lingers near the state. Interior clouds and a few
showers will develop during the afternoon hours, followed by
partial clearing overnight. Trade winds will gradually return
Thursday and Friday, bringing a more typical pattern of mainly
windward and mauka showers with a few afternoon showers over
leeward areas. A slight increase in shower coverage remains
possible this weekend as an upper disturbance approaches the
islands, followed by stronger trade winds and more stable
conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The humid land and sea breeze pattern with dewpoints hovering in
the mid to upper 60s will continue today as the weak trough
meanders near the central portion of the island chain. Expect
mostly sunny conditions for most areas this morning, followed by
another round of interior and leeward clouds and isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon. Shower chances may remain
slightly enhanced near central islands where the trough is
located. Accumulations, however, should remain light due to
mostly stable conditions and plenty of dry air above a strong
inversion positioned around 7,000 ft.

Light to moderate trade winds will gradually return Thursday and
Friday as the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of the state.
Showers will become more focused over windward and mauka areas,
though localized afternoon sea breeze clouds and a few showers may
still develop over sheltered leeward terrain.

By the weekend, an upper-level disturbance approaching the region
could lead to a slight increase in showers, though uncertainty
remains elevated due to model differences regarding the timing and
strength of these features. More stable conditions and stronger
trade winds are expected to return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A light background wind prevails with land breezes expected
through this morning, transitioning to sea breezes this afternoon.
Expect VFR conditions initially, then periods of MVFR conditions
as clouds and shower activity develop later along island
interiors. Light winds are expected to persist throughout the day;
though, trades are anticipated to return by the latter end of the
week.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect, however, AIRMET Sierra may
be needed this afternoon to account for clouds and showers
associated with sea breezes this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough north of the smaller islands will move very little today
and allow for weak to flow to continue across all local waters.
Thus, expect diurnally driven late morning and early afternoon
sea breezes to develop along waters near the immediate coasts.
Thursday into Friday, a surface ridge building northwest of the
state will bring a return of light to locally moderate
northeasterly trades. Trades will then strengthen into moderate to
locally fresh range by this weekend.

A moderate medium-period northwest swell will gradually fade
through the rest of today. A new long period swell originating
from a gale force low south of Kamchatka will build tonight
and give another boost to north and west shore surf Thursday and
Friday, but should remain below advisory levels. Surf will
gradually decline over the weekend into early next week.

A small, long-period south swell, generated from a storm-force
low that tracked southeast of New Zealand last week, will fill in
today and likely provide a small bump in south shore surf through
the end of the week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal during the
next several days due to the lack of strong trades over and
upstream of the islands. Surf along east facing shores will get a
small bump up into the weekend as trades gradually increase.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...Thomas