Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 04/14/2026 05:33:00 AM UTC

                        
093
FXHW60 PHFO 131933
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
933 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate rain continues across the western portion of
the state as the rain band gradually meanders westward. Light and
variable winds will favor daily land and sea breezes through
midweek. By the latter half of the weak, gentle trades and quiet
weather return to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026

A band of mostly light showers remains over the western end of
the state this morning, with isolated to scattered light showers
moving in on the southwest flow elsewhere. Most of the rainfall in
the last 3 hours has been focused over Oahu, with a few
hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch recorded at most
locations.

Hi-res model guidance suggests that shower activity will diminish
this afternoon, then additional light to moderate showers may
reorganize along a weakly convergent boundary near Kauai
overnight and persist in the vicinity through Tuesday. For the
rest of the island chain, with light winds prevailing, and if
diurnal heating is strong enough, land and sea breeze activity may
bring interior showers during the day and partial clearing
overnight for the rest of the island chain. Otherwise, isolated
light showers will move in on the southwest flow.

A Wind Advisory was issued for the Big Island summits this morning
through the afternoon for a brief uptick in the southwest flow at
summit level. Summit winds are expected to trend down by this

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026

Latest radar imagery continues to show remnant showers developing
across the smaller Hawaiian Islands. These showers have been
showing predominately less than a tenth of an inch per hour across
the state, with some locally higher amounts across leeward Big
Island. Despite this, opting to cancel the remaining Flood Watch
for Kauai through Maui as a result. The threat for widespread
flash flooding has decreased across the Hawaiian Islands,
therefore, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. However, due to
lingering moisture and saturated grounds, some minor flooding may
still occur in areas affected by heavy showers.

Winds across the state are anticipated to be light and variable
beginning tomorrow, favoring onshore sea breezes each afternoon,
which may result in some showers as the lingering airmass over the
islands remains moisture-rich. Moreover, dewpoints are expected
to remain in the upper-60s throughout the week, maintaining high
humidity levels that will persist until trades return. As the
low pressure system, once anchored north of the islands, finally
dislodged and moved northeastward away from the Hawaiian Islands
by mid-week -- and with it, the band of rainfall. A broad area
of high pressure quickly builds in its wake, opening the door for
light trades to make a return by the latter half of the week.
Trades remain quite light and are not expected to make much of a
profound effect on the local humidity levels. However, for the
first time in several weeks, there is no potential event
forthcoming for the Hawaiian Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026

Stratiform rain will continue to impact the islands today, however
generally VFR conditions are expected due to the light intensity
of the rain. MVFR conditions are most likely at more elevated
sites such as Molokai and Lanai, as well as under periodic bursts
of heavier rain. The forecast generally trends back toward benign
trades by the midweek.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for
Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Lanai. This may be reconsidered later
today, however, if ceilings generally remain above 030.

AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for moderate turbulence over
the islands from 120 to FL350, however this may be altered
depending on what PIREPs report later today.

Moderate icing is possible so long as this ongoing system remains
over the islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 928 AM HST Mon Apr 13 2026

A weak surface trough remains draped across the state, leading to
pockets of variable winds over the central islands. Winds may be
moderate to locally fresh when enhanced near island terrain, such
as southeast near the Big Island or south near Kauai. The surface
trough weakens and lifts out the latter half of the week. High
pressure begins to take over at the surface, causing gentle to
moderate easterly trades to gradually develop across the Hawaiian
coastal waters by this weekend.

A small, medium-period northwest swell will diminish today. However,
small surf will be maintained along north and west facing shores by a
reinforcing pulse on Tuesday. Following this, northwest swell energy
declines through the rest of the week.

A medium-period south swell will continue to decline today as well.
A new south swell arrives on Tuesday, once again providing a boost to
surf along south facing shores through mid week before gradually
subsiding into the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain below seasonal average with
lighter than average trade winds near and upstream of the islands
forecast through next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Bravender