Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 03/06/2026 01:21:00 AM UTC

                        
588
FXHW60 PHFO 051521
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
521 AM HST Thu Mar 5 2026

.UPDATE...
Latest trends show that moderate turbulence has subsided across
and along leeward sites of the islands, therefore have canceled
AIRMET Tango.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively benign conditions with breezy east to southeast winds
will persist through the weekend amidst an approaching front
stalling just west of the islands. This pattern will favor showers
along southeast and east-facing slopes with sea breezes, and sea
breeze showers, potentially developing within sheltered leeward
and interior areas. Strengthening southerly flow is anticipated
to pull deep tropical moisture northward over the islands next
week, bringing an increasing chance for a wetter and more
unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trade winds will continue for Thursday, pulling slightly more
southeasterly during the day before returning more easterly
Thursday night. Intermittent windward and mountain shower activity
will continue, and with it periodic MVFR conditions for those
impacted sites under showers, but otherwise expect VFR to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure situated far to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands will produce fresh to strong east-southeasterly trade
winds today. Winds ease slightly Thursday night into Friday as a
front passes north of the islands, and winds may even shift
southerly just west of Kauai for a time before fresh to strong
east-southeast winds return Friday night. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) has been extended through Friday evening for most of the
waters around the Big Island and Maui, where winds are typically
enhanced by terrain interaction. This general wind pattern is
likely to hold through the weekend. Then, a large low pressure
system approaching from the west this weekend will stalls out
northwest of the islands beginning early next week. Winds veer
more southerly in response to the low`s cold front making a close
approach, or even entering the northwest offshore waters, by mid-
week. Strong southerly winds will be possible depending on how
close the cold front gets to the islands.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain small as a
series of small long- to medium-period west to northwest swells
reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. The current
northwest swell reaches a nadir today as very little wave energy
is being detected from that direction by buoy observations this
morning. The forerunners of a small west-northwest swell are
anticipated to arrive this afternoon/evening, and peak Friday
night, followed by another small northwest swell that maintains
the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm-force low
currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another
small west-northwest swell early next week.

Choppy east shore surf will remain near seasonal averages as
east-southeasterly trade winds vary minimally over the next few
days, with a chance for a slight increase over the weekend. Surf
along east facing shores then declines early next week as winds
veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small
through the weekend, but may increase and become choppier with the
shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small
long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next
week.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Weather conditions remain relatively benign with breezy east to
southeast winds through the weekend. Overall low-level flow is
anticipated to remain east-southeast during this time, leading to
showers favoring southeast- and east-facing slopes. Sea and land
breezes over sheltered leeward and interior areas are possible,
and could result in shower development during the afternoon,
followed by clearing at night. Overall rainfall amounts through
the weekend are expected to remain light with little impact. Model
guidance continues to portray a front stalling just west of the
islands this weekend as it encounters the deep ridge just
northeast of the islands.

Things become a bit more interesting by early next week as model
guidance continues to support an area of low pressure moving
toward the state, resulting in low-level flow veering more
southerly and strengthening. This flow is expected to pull
tropical moisture northward over the Hawaiian Islands by midweek
next week, persisting through the outlook period. Current model
total precipitable water (PWATs) normalized anomalies show nearly
three standard deviations above normal, equating to 40 to 46 mm
PWATs (1.6 to 1.8 inches, respectively). This moist southerly
flow, in conjunction with instability associated with nearby
upper-level disturbances, could support a wetter and more
unsettled pattern through much of next week.

Latest model guidance has shown an improved agreement regarding
the overall pattern evolution next week, leading to increased
confidence. However, uncertainty remains regarding the exact
location of the deepest moisture and the strength of the southerly
winds, especially given the long range time frame.
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast
Waters.


&&

$$


UPDATE...Evans
DISCUSSION...Pierce
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Quesada