Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/10/2026 11:00:00 PM UTC

                        
515
FXHW60 PHFO 101300
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
300 AM HST Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will exit west of the state early this morning,
however some showery conditions will linger over Kauai through the
morning hours, while rather dry conditions prevail over the rest
of the state. The trough will dissipate west of the islands
tonight and Monday, with trade winds increasing to breezy levels
by late Monday or Monday night, and continuing through late this
week. A fairly typical trade wind pattern will become established
in the wake of the trough, with showers favoring windward and
mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning
hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure is
located over Kauai, while a ridge axis is positioned several
hundred miles north of the island chain. Breezy northeasterly
trade winds are present to the west of the trough, while moderate
east-northeasterly trades prevail to its east. Infrared satellite
imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows
scattered to numerous showers moving into windward sections of
Oahu and Kauai, with much fewer showers moving into windward areas
of the other islands. Main short term focus revolves around trade
wind trends and rain chances during the next couple of days.

The weak trough of low pressure will continue to push slowly west
today, exiting to the west of Kauai prior to daybreak this
morning. Showers will be most prevalent over windward sections of
Kauai this morning, with a decrease expected for the afternoon
hours. Elsewhere, rather dry trade wind weather is expected today,
with only a few mainly windward and mauka showers. Winds will
ease following the passage of the trough, with moderate trades
then prevailing statewide through the remainder of the day.

The weak trough will dampen out west of the state tonight and
Monday, while a ridge of high pressure remains in place several
hundred miles north of the state. This will bring a gradual
increase in trade wind speeds, with breezy conditions becoming
established across the entire island chain by late Monday or
Monday night. Breezy conditions are then expected to hold through
late in the week as high pressure remains firmly in place to the
north of the state. A fairly typical trade wind pattern is
expected to prevail through late this week, with showers favoring
windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and
early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trades increasing into the moderate to locally breezy category
for the next several days. Low cigs and SHRA possible over
windward and mauka locations with limited spillover to leeward
areas. MVFR conds possible but VFR should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over Kauai, Oahu, Molokai
and Maui.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod upper level turb for Kauai and
Oahu due to a strong jet over the state. Also, there will likely
be a need for AIRMET Tango for low-level turb with trades
strengthening Sunday afternoon into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaiian
Islands this week with easterly trade winds blowing in the fresh
to locally strong range lasting into next weekend.

A small medium period northwest swell will maintain small surf
heights along north and west facing shores today, shifting out of
the north to north northwest direction by tonight and then fading
out by Tuesday. The next small long period northwest swell pulses
into the region by Wednesday afternoon, peaking by Thursday
morning, then decreasing from Friday onward.

Small long period south swell energy will fade today with two
additional small long period background south swells moving in on
Monday and Thursday night. Surf along east facing shores will
remain below normal today, with increasing surf heights peaking by
Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin