Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 10/14/2026 04:32:00 PM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 140632
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
832 PM HST Tue Oct 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will gradually build to breezy levels through
Thursday as weak troughing around the state dissipates and a new
surface high develops north of the state. Expect limited clouds
and showers to focus along windward and mauka areas, particularly
during the overnight and early morning hours. Slightly wetter
trade wind showers will be possible late Friday into the weekend.
A drier trade wind pattern may develop early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
The evening, mostly dry conditions are prevailing as lingering
clouds over the Big Island diminish. Some minor tweaks were made
to shower chances though the overnight period, mainly to decrease
them a bit. Otherwise, no changes this evening as the previous
forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM HST Tue Oct 13 2026

Limited clouds and showers can be seen mainly along windward and
mauka areas, except for the Big Island where light to moderate
showers are developing along the kona slopes. Starting tonight,
upper level trough will have moved east of the state, while mid
level ridging continues to limit clouds and showers to windward
and mauka locations, especially overnight and early morning
Wednesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than what was
observed overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

A surface high will develop and shift northwest of the state
Wednesday allowing trade winds to gradually strengthen to more
typically breezy levels throughout the day and Thursday as the
high settles north of the state. During the this time mid and
upper level ridging will maintain dry and stable trade wind
pattern while passing bands of low level clouds and showers
embedded within the trade wind flow focuses light showers along
windward and mauka areas.

An upper level trough will approach the state Friday just as an
area of enhanced low level moisture moves from east to west across
the state Friday afternoon into Saturday, increasing chances of
showers for windward and mauka slopes. Cooling temperatures in the
mid levels could make for some brief isolated heavy showers.
Although there will be some lingering instability over the state
for the rest of the weekend, there could be an over all drying
trend as low level moisture becomes limited into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions will occur across the state as mainly
dry conditions prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Trades will
persist through the period. Lighter winds may allow for the
development of localized breezes within more trade wind-protected
areas. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible within more organized
showers.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM HST Tue Oct 13 2026

Troughs to the west and east, coupled with the high to the far
northeast with an accompanying ridge north of the islands will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds through tomorrow. As the
troughs weaken, the pressure gradient will tighten, and trades
will strengthen to moderate to locally fresh Thursday. Winds may
strengthen to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels as early as
Wednesday night in some of the typical windier waters near Maui
and the Big Island. Winds are then expected to remain at SCA
levels through the weekend.

The current long period northwest swell will linger into tomorrow,
holding surf near seasonal average for north and west facing
shores, before declining Wednesday night through Friday. By late
Friday, a medium period north- northwest swell will build and once
again help bring surf to near seasonal averages through the
weekend.

The current long period south-southwest swell will keep surf along
south facing shores elevated through tomorrow. Another long
period south swell will help produce surf near seasonal average
Thursday into early this weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday
as small wind waves and tiny east swell persist. Choppy surf will
increase slightly as trade winds strengthen across the region
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 PM HST Tue Oct 13 2026

Moderate trade winds will gradually strengthen to typical breezy
levels by Thursday. Dry air will keep RH levels near- critical
values each afternoon for parts of the state for the next several
days. RH values will increase towards the end of the week before
another drying trends begins over the weekend into early next
week. Inversion heights tonight will range from 5,000 to 6,000 ft.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Vaughan
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...M Ballard
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza