Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/01/2026 11:15:00 AM UTC

                        
668
FXHW60 PHFO 010115
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
315 PM HST Thu Apr 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy trades will continue for the next several
days. Showers are expected across windward and mauka areas with
limited spillover into leeward areas. A nearly stationary upper-
level low northeast of the islands will enhance clouds and
showers through Friday. By the weekend, the upper low is forecast
to move northeast away from the state and wind speeds will
decrease slightly. From Monday through the end of next week, trade
wind showers, mainly windward and mauka, will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate to breezy trade winds are forecast to continue thanks to
a series of high pressure systems that will move from west to
east across the north Pacific over the coming week. An upper-level
low centered 600-700 miles northeast of the state is causing some
local instability resulting in deeper clouds and some enhanced
shower activity across windward and mauka areas, with isolated
showers reaching leeward areas. This upper-level low will remain
nearly stationary through Friday, keeping some cold air aloft over
the region. This will continue the risk of occasional moderate to
briefly heavy showers.

The trade pattern will be with us for the next week. Wind speeds
should weaken slightly Saturday into Sunday as the upper-level
low exits the region to the northeast. Periods of showers will
continue to favor windward and mauka areas. From Monday through
most of next week, expect trades to continue with only slight
variations in day-to-day wind speeds. Showers will fall mainly
windward and mauka, as usual in a trade wind pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
A stationary upper low is situated northeast of Hawaii that will
enhance some of the incoming low clouds and showers that will
focus windward by fresh trade winds. Will be monitoring for
mountain obscurations due to showers over windward slopes tonight,
but coverage is brief/isolated for now.

AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence across
leeward sides of all islands below 8000 feet due to the breezy
trade winds. Expect this AIRMET to continue into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1031 mb high far north of the state will strengthen slightly
during the next 24 hours and will bring a brief increase of our
trade winds with widespread fresh to strong trade winds expected
across the state. ASCAT pass from earlier today showed some strong
winds already over the Kauai Channel. With the winds expected to
strengthen tonight, the Small Craft Advisory has been expanded in
area and now includes all Hawaiian Waters through Friday. Winds
should decrease late Friday into the weekend, as a front passing
far north of the state will nudge the aforementioned high further
east and allow trade winds to decrease to moderate to locally
fresh speeds. Some of the windier areas around Maui County and the
Big Island could still see locally strong winds over the weekend.

The current small, northwest to north-northwest (320-335 degree),
swell will slowly decline into Friday and produce near average
surf along north facing beaches. A compact storm-force low
developed just east of the Kuril Island on Monday and tracked
toward the Aleutian Islands for a few days. This storm should send
a moderate, long-period northwest (320 degree) swell towards the
islands late Friday into Saturday and generate above average surf
along north and west facing shores on Saturday. Average H1/10
heights for north facing shores is 6 feet for the month of May
(Goddard-Caldwell Database). However, surf heights should remain
below advisory levels.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through the rest
of this work week, with mainly background south to southwest
swell expected. A small, long period, south-southwest pulse
should arrive late Friday and give a bump up to south facing
shores through this weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores will see a boost tonight into
Friday as the trades briefly strengthen to widespread fresh to
strong trade winds. Trades will then slowly weaken this weekend
and allow surf along east-facing shores to decrease to below
average levels by early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kahoolawe.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino