Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/14/2026 05:15:00 AM UTC

                        
531
FXHW60 PHFO 131915
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
915 AM HST Wed May 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will persist through Thursday, ease slightly
this weekend, then restrengthen by midweek next week. Showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, most frequently at night and
during the early morning hours. Friday into the weekend, an
upper-level disturbance and increasing moisture may bring muggier
conditions and an uptick in trade wind shower activity, with
pockets of heavy rain possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
The current forecast remains on track, so no changes were made
with this mid morning update. High pressure to the far north will
help maintain breezy trade winds across the state into Thursday.
In this pattern, clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka
areas as batches of moisture filter across the island chain on the
trade wind flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM HST Wed May 13 2026

At the surface, a dominate high pressure system resides far to the
north of the Hawaiian islands, and will keep east to east northeast
trade winds blowing through the weekend and into next week.
Showers will be pushed over the typical windward and mountain
areas, favoring the night time and early morning hours.

By Friday through the weekend, models continue to show a mid to upper-
level cutoff low moving over the region, bringing cooler temperatures
aloft and increasing instability. Precipitable water values at
that time are expected to climb to 1.5 to almost 2 inches over the
eastern end of the state as moisture is drawn up from the south. The
latest GFS model run and some recent high resolution model runs
show an increased probability of pockets of heavy rain forming.
Exactly where and when remains to be seen, but localized heavy
showers especially over the mountain ranges look like a
possibility at this time. This upper low is also expected to usher
in muggier conditions as dew points climb into the lower 70s and
the extra moisture could linger into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure far north of the islands will maintain a breezy
trade wind pattern through Thursday. Passing showers will continue
to be carried in on the trade wind flow. At times these showers
could bring some mountain obscuration to various islands, mostly
at night and during the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the
lee of the mountains due to the breezy trade winds. Expect this to
remain in place through at least tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure established north of the islands maintains locally
strong trades until an upper disturbance causes winds to weaken by
this weekend.

Small, short period NW swell fades today and will be replaced by
a small to moderate, long period NW swell that will peak on
Thursday bringing small to moderate surf to favored exposures.
Small, medium to long period S swell maintains small surf along S
shores. Meanwhile, locally strong trades maintain choppy short
period conditions along E shores.

Tides peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing
trades and a modest boost in S swell, water levels will peak
around 3.0 ft late this weekend into early next week. Minor
overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible at high tide
during this time.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kahoolawe-
Kipahulu-Lanai Leeward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Southeast-
Molokai West-South Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Farris
DISCUSSION...Tsamous
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...JVC