National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Storm Impacting the Northwest U.S.; Fire Weather Conditions in Southern California; Severe Weather in the South

A Pacific storm is bringing areas of low elevation rain, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and high winds to the Northwest. Strong Santa Ana winds and very dry conditions are producing elevated to critical fire weather conditions in southern California. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas into western Tennessee. Read More >

Radar Assistance Web Site


Hail Forecasting

Element Useage
Environment

SPC -10C to -30C CAPE

Hail Lapse Rate in AWIPS (0C to -20C) of -6.5C or stronger
Radar Storm Top Divergence: Earliest Signal - Best Correlation
50dbz > -20C Height: Hail Probable
50dbz > Donavon 1" Hail Height: Severe Hail Likely
Three Body Scatter Spike (TBSS): Severe Hail
50 dbz > 30kft: Significant Severe Hail Probable
60dbz > -20C Height: Significant Severe Hail Probable
Melting Keep in mind that if the storm lacks tilt, the hail will fall through the updraft, causing significant melting to occur. So, mid-level shear (pre-storm)/user identified meso/tilted updraft (storm) = favorable significant hail

 

 


Meso Nomograms

 


 

Radar VCP and Scan Strategies

  • VCP 121: Use for large scale convective systems where flash flooding is the main threat.
  • VCP 11: Use for hail only situations, superior upper level scans for STD evaluation.
  • VCP 12: Use for tornado/wind threats, superior lower level scans for Vel/SRM evaluation.
  • VCP 31: Use for snow situations or pre-storm shear/boundary analysis.
  • If range folding is a problem, chance the PRF!
  • Consider using a VCP Nesting Approach.