Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >
In the U.S. the tradition derives from a Scottish poem:
As the light grows longer |
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In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere, the official first day of Spring is about six weeks after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or 21. About 1,000 years ago, before the adoption of the Gregorian calendar when the date of the equinox drifted in the Julian calendar, the spring equinox fell on March 16 instead. This was exactly six weeks after February 2. Assuming that the equinox marked the first day of spring in certain medieval cultures, as it does now in western countries, Groundhog Day occurred exactly six weeks before spring. Therefore, if the groundhog saw his shadow on Groundhog Day there would be six more weeks of winter. If he didn’t, there would be 42 more days of winter. In other words, the Groundhog Day tradition may have begun as a bit of folk humor.
Alternatively, the custom could have been a folk embodiment of the confusion created by the collision of two calendrical systems. Some ancient traditions marked the change of season at cross-quarter days such as Imbolc when daylight first makes significant progress against the night. Other traditions held that Spring did not begin until the length of daylight overtook night at the Vernal Equinox. So an arbiter, the groundhog/hedgehog, was incorporated as a yearly custom to settle the two traditions. Sometimes Spring begins at Imbolc, and sometimes Winter lasts 6 more weeks until the Equinox.
For more information on the various prognosticating groundhogs across North America click here.
Below are some Groundhog Day weather statistics for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN.
La Crosse, WI:
The following statistics comprise 153 years of data. From 1873 through 1950, the data came from various locations in downtown La Crosse. Since 1950, the data has been gathered at La Crosse Regional Airport.
Groundhog Day in La Crosse, WI (Period of Record 1873-2025) |
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1991-2020 Normals
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Records
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Maximum Temperature |
29°F
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Warmest High Temperature |
51°F
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February 2, 2006
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Coldest High Temperature |
-13°F
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February 2, 1996
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Minimum Temperature |
11°F
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Warmest Low Temperature |
33°F
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February 2, 2003
February 2, 1999 |
Coldest Low Temperature |
-34°F
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February 2, 1996
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Average Temperature |
20°F
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Warmest Average Temperature |
39.5°F
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February 2, 2006
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Coldest Average Temperature |
-23.5°F
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February 2, 1996
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Precipitation |
0.04"
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Wettest |
1.29"
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February 2, 1983
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Snowfall |
0.3"
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Snowiest |
10.0"
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February 2, 1983
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Snow Depth at 6 AM |
6"
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Most Snow on the Ground at 6 AM |
29"
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February 2, 1929
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The odds of having any precipitation at all on Groundhog Day is 51% (78 out of 153). There has been measurable (0.01" or greater) precipitation on 42 Groundhog Days (27.5%) and trace amounts (less than 0.01") of precipitation on 36 Groundhog Days (23.5%).
Since 1897, it has snowed on 62 out of 129 (48.1%) Groundhog Days. Measurable snow (0.1" or greater) has fallen on 31 Groundhog Days (24%) and a trace of snow (a dusting) has fallen on another 31 Groundhog Days (24%)
Since 1893, residents have woken up with measurable snow (1/2" or greater) on the ground 113 times (85%), no snow 15 times (11.3%), and trace amounts (less than a 1/2" inch) 5 times (3.8%).
In 2025, the high temperature was 41°F and the low temperature was 29°F. A trace of rain fell. There was no of snow on the ground at 7 AM. The average wind speed was 4.9 mph.
Rochester, MN:
The following statistics comprise 114 years of data. From 1887 through 1931, the data came from several cooperative observers in the Rochester area. Since 1932, the data has been gathered at Rochester International Airport. No data was taken on Groundhog Day from 1890, 1891, 1908, 1909, from 1921 to 1928.
Groundhog Day in Rochester, MN (Period of Record 1887-2023) |
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1991-2020 Normals
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Records
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Maximum Temperature |
23°F
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Warmest High Temperature |
48°F
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February 2, 2012
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Coldest High Temperature |
-20°F
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February 2, 1996
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Minimum Temperature |
7°F
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Warmest Low Temperature |
32°F
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February 2, 2003
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Coldest Low Temperature |
-35°F
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February 2, 1996
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Average Temperature |
15°F
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Warmest Average Temperature |
37.5°F
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February 2, 2012
February 2, 2006 February 2, 1944 |
Coldest Average Temperature |
-27.5°F
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February 2, 1996
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Precipitation |
0.03"
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Wettest |
0.67"
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February 2, 1983
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Snowfall |
0.4"
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Snowiest |
9.3"
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February 2, 1983
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Snow Depth at 7 AM |
7"
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Most Snow on the Ground at 6 AM |
21"
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February 2, 1979 |
The odds of having any precipitation at all on Groundhog Day is 47.7% (53 out of 111). There has been measurable (0.01" or greater) precipitation on 26 Groundhog Days (23.4%) and trace amounts (less than 0.01") of precipitation on 27 Groundhog Days (24.3%).
Since 1929, it has snowed on 50 out of 107 (46.7%) Groundhog Days. Measurable snow (0.1" or greater) has fallen on 26 Groundhog Days (24.3%) and a trace of snow (a dusting) has fallen on another 24 Groundhog Days (22.4%).
Since 1939, residents have woken up with measurable snow (1/2" or greater) on the ground 79 times (87.8%), no snow 7 times (7.8%), and trace amounts (less than a 1/2") 4 times (4.4%).
In 2025, the high temperature was 42°F and the low temperature was 29°F. A trace of rain fell. There was no snow on the ground. The average wind speed was 18.2 mph.
Below are some weather events that took place on this day:
In 2018, temperatures warmed dramatically across the area. After early morning low temperatures in the single digits and teens, temperatures quickly warmed to around 40°F. This resulted in widespread dense fog across the area.
In 2020, there was an unseasonably warm air mass over the region. The high temperature was 42°F (5th warmest Groundhog Day) at Rochester MN and 50°F (second warmest - only 2006 was warmer with a high temperature of 51°F) at La Crosse WI.
In 2024, there was no snow on the ground at 7 AM for both La Crosse, WI (first time since 2018) and Rochester, MN (first time since 2006).
In 2025, there was no snow on the ground at 7 AM for both La Crosse, WI and Rochester, MN. This was the 2nd consecutive year that this has occurred. For La Crosse, this has not occurred since 1933 and 1934. For Rochester, this has not occurred since 1912 and 1913.