Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

001

ACUS01 KWNS 310605

SWODY1

SPC AC 310603



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0103 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Valid 311200Z - 011200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...



...SUMMARY...

A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the

central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across

southwest Texas.



...Synopsis...

A relatively weak upper trough will lift northward through the

central/northern Plains. To the south of this feature, mid-level

heights will modestly rise during the day. Weak surface lows are

expected within the northern Plains and Kansas. Rich moisture will

be present as far north as the Mid-Missouri Valley.



...Kansas/Missouri...

Convection is likely to be ongoing in parts of the Mid-Missouri

Valley during the morning. This activity is likely to leave an

outflow boundary within Missouri. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low

70s F will promote strong to extreme MLCAPE values (3500-5000 J/kg).

Despite the trough generally lifting northward, a band of 30-40 kt

of mid-level flow will remain across the region. Storm development

along the surface trough/dryline is uncertain given the rising

mid-level heights. However, it is possible that a storm or two could

form along this boundary or where it intersects outflow from the

early day activity. Deep-layer shear would be sufficient for

supercell structures capable of large hail, severe winds, and

perhaps a tornado given the locally enhanced SRH along the outflow

boundary. The potential for very-large hail is less clear given weak

upper-level flow.



Model guidance also suggests a subtle shortwave, coupled with weak

low-level lift, could initiate convection in the vicinity of

northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri. With the very moist airmass

present, nocturnal cooling would be rather gradual. Should a strong

enough cold pool develop, this activity could develop

south/southeast along the outflow boundary where a reservoir of

strong buoyancy would exist. Damaging winds would be the main threat

with this potential MCS. With the timing of this development

expected to be after 03Z, it is not clear how intense storms will

be. Should confidence increase in either scenario, a categorical

Slight would be warranted.



...Oklahoma/Texas...

Strong heating to the west of a dryline will promote at least

isolated storms during the afternoon. Higher confidence in greater

storm coverage exists in Southwest Texas given the moist upslope

flow into the Davis Mountains. Coverage into Rolling Plains and

Oklahoma is less certain as mid-level heights will be slowly rising

during the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy will be in place

(2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep layer shear will be weak, however.

Severe wind gusts will be the main hazard, though isolated large

hail is possible in the areas of larger buoyancy.



...Nebraska into the Dakotas...

Forcing for ascent from the weak, negatively tilted upper trough

will be greater here than areas to the south. That said, shear will

not be overly strong. Daytime heating will support widely scattered

to scattered storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps

some hail.



..Wendt/Moore.. 05/31/2026



$$






                

                        

689

ACUS02 KWNS 310601

SWODY2

SPC AC 310559



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected

Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.

Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the

parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks

southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.



...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as

southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and

High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest

Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central

Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to

setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern

Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As

surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will

take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.

Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the

central High Plains along and near the instability axis.



Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in

the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In

addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.

This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe

wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase

during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward

across the central High Plains.



Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern

Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level

ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the

ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north

to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate

to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and

persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be

expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.



...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi

Valley/Southeast...

A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on

Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist

airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward

into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints

will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to

an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model

forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning

convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other

solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to

spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more

aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat

could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the

central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat

may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,

along an east-to-west axis of instability.



..Broyles.. 05/31/2026



$$






                

                        

071

FXUS63 KAPX 311053

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

653 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Elevated fire danger today due to dry conditions and breezy east

winds



- Dry conditions and warm temperatures will linger through much of

next week



- Next rain chances could be near the end of the work week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026



A persisting omega block continues to influence the CONUS today,

with amplified ridging up through central CAN and upper lows over

the western CONUS/northern plains as well as the northeast CONUS.

Current water vapor satellite depicts an upper jet starting to

deepen into a shortwave over the southern part of the Hudson Bay.

Satellite derived PWATs also show around +1" of deep Gulf moisture

advecting on the windward side of the upper ridge, reaching the CAN

front range (many 00z RAOBs over the central and northern plains

confirm this as well as the ongoing convection). Northern MI

continues to be on the leeward side of the upper ridging, which

continues to reinforce dry continental CAN air over the region. This

stark clashing of airmasses can be seen over IL/IA/IN with surface

Td gradients of 20 to 30 degrees across these states.



Today, the center of a surface high pressure resides right over

northern MI. Light winds with afternoon breezes, sunny skies and

warm temperatures will be seen. Lake breeze action is likely near

the coastal areas this afternoon. Elevated fire danger will be seen

this afternoon as RHs dip to as low as the high teens in some

interior spots, and breeze afternoon winds establish. As the

aforementioned upper shortwave over the Hudson Bay deepens, another

surge of dry/cooler air will be on the door step tonight.



East winds will likely remain elevated enough to keep temperatures

from dropping into the 30s as the side-door front moves through

early Monday morning. Breezy east to northeast winds with frequent

gusts up to 20 to 25 mph will bee seen most of Monday. Skies will

likely persist as mostly clear, and dry air near the surface

continues to be reinforced behind the boundary. Temperatures will

cool a couple of degrees for the Lk Huron counties, otherwise

localized warm spots over Lk MI will be seen due to downsloping

across the peninsula. Elevated fire danger will likely be seen again

Monday afternoon, especially with highly unstable conditions up to

8kft or higher.



Starting Tuesday, the blocking patterns begins to shift. The upper

ridge will slide to the east, and land over northern MI. Sunny skies

continue, with temperatures now warming into the 80s in the

afternoon. Dry conditions persist, with locally driven lake breeze

winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, an upper closed low

approaches as the whole block weakens and continues east. Depending

on timing, winds turn southwest either Thursday or late

Thursday/Friday and strengthen ahead of the next system. Wrapped up,

recycled moisture will move over the areas with it and bring rain

and storm chances back to northern MI. Lots of uncertainty in the

timing and intensity/amount of rain remains as multiple days/rounds

of convection over the plains/northern plains has to occur before

this. There is also the inherent uncertainty with how quickly this

block will weaken and move east. Global deterministic and AI

guidance suggests rain chances Friday, however ensembles show a

spread from Friday to Sunday indicating that the upper ridging could

take another day or two to finally move east.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026



VFR. Dry air remains in place, with limited cloud cover. Light

winds, onshore lake breezes in the afternoon and early evenings.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ELD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

772

ACUS11 KWNS 310226

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 310225

KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-310430-



Mesoscale Discussion 0917

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0925 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026



Areas affected...Central and northeast Kansas into adjacent portions

of Nebraska and far western Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...



Valid 310225Z - 310430Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253

continues.



SUMMARY...The potential for severe hail and wind should continue

into the late evening hours. However, this threat should become more

isolated with time.



DISCUSSION...Pockets of strong/severe thunderstorms continue across

portions of central/northeast KS and south-central NE. A persistent

convective cluster northeast of the Wichita, KS area has maintained

intensity over the past hour despite the onset of nocturnal cooling

- likely owing to increasing ascent on the southern flank of the

convective cold pool related to the recent onset of the nocturnal

jet. Similarly, new convective cores are noted across central KS

over the cold pool. Weak deep-layer wind shear should limit

longevity of these cores, but given residual buoyancy and increasing

isentropic ascent, some hail threat may linger as stronger cores

briefly pulse to severe limits.



Further northeast, pockets of strong winds remain evident in

regional velocity imagery across south-central NE and northeast KS.

Additionally, new cell development is noted in the Topeka, KS

vicinity, though cell longevity has been limited - likely due to

similarly modest deep-layer wind shear. Mid-level flow generally

weakens with northeastward extent, which limits confidence in the

potential for a more prolonged/robust severe threat. Consequently,

downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this point. However, a

localized hail/wind threat should persist for the next several

hours.



..Moore.. 05/31/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...



LAT...LON   37579658 37559697 37569722 37669756 38939905 39179909

            39619867 40049859 40449879 40759884 40869877 41439779

            41429729 41309669 40049538 39689508 39189486 38819502

            38159536 37579658



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN