773

ACUS01 KWNS 101911

SWODY1

SPC AC 101910



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0110 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Valid 102000Z - 111200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.



No changes.



..Hart.. 12/10/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025/



...Synopsis and Discussion...

A shortwave trough, and accompanying intense jet streak with 500 mb

winds over 100 kt, will continue eastward through the OH Valley

today and off the Northeast coast by early tomorrow. Surface low

associated with this wave will progress northeastward from its

current position over southeastern Lower MI/southwestern Ontario

along the St. Lawrence Valley today, continuing through ME and into

the Canadian Maritimes by early tomorrow. An extensive cold front

extending southeastward from this low will push quickly

eastward/southeastward through the southern Plains and much of the

eastern CONUS, ending the period well off the East Coast.



Passage of this cold front will reinforce the dry and stable

conditions across the majority of the CONUS, precluding

thunderstorms. Modest low-level moisture will remain over

central/southern FL throughout the day, but warm low to mid-level

temperatures will prohibit deep convection, limiting the

thunderstorm potential.



$$






                

                        

867

ACUS02 KWNS 101654

SWODY2

SPC AC 101652



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.



...Synopsis...



A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the

Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge

builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore

the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the

Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the

Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,

thunderstorms are not expected.



..Leitman.. 12/10/2025



$$






                

                        

246

NWUS53 KAPX 101658

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1158 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1100 AM     Snow             Au Gres                 44.05N 83.70W

12/10/2025  M3.8 Inch        Arenac             MI   Trained Spotter



            24 hour snow total since 11am 12/9.





&&



$$












                

                        

635

FXUS63 KAPX 101640

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1140 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Impactful snow continues through the early to midday hours today

  near and south of M-72.



- Transition to lake effect snow later today through Thursday.



- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Sfc low pressure system continues to track to the south of the

region today, across C-S Michigan as an energy filled trough moves

southeast into the OH Valley. Thus, generally a steady lighter snow

will continue across the region, waning from west to east through

the morning and midday hours, with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph through

the day, more like 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon hours. Emphasis

will be on the M-72 corridor and especially south. Thus, the morning

commute will be slick and slippery for these regions. There will be

a burst of cold advection as a colder airmass moves in from the

northwest during the midday to afternoon hours, with a region of

potential lake enhanced snowfall across GTB and points southwest.

This may lead to drops in visibility with snow and blowing snow at

the winds increase, if it materializes in a robust fashion. Because

of this potential, the advisory remains across the region but more

specifically the areas west of I-75 until 4PM. This may be deemed

unnecessary moving into the daytime hours. Along and east of I-75

the advisory remains but the snow may end ~1PM for most. Seems

unlikely that a freezing drizzle event would happen again today.

Brief look at some soundings suggests perhaps for a very brief

period there may be a low probability of freezing drizzle prior to

the cold advection and after the precip moves eastward, but not very

confident in that potential at this time.



Potent trough begins to dig across the eastern Great Lakes tonight

with a shot of cold advection to follow. Thus, winds turn more

northwesterly and the saturated boundary layer (which includes the

DGZ) rises to ~1.5km across northern Michigan. Consequently, the

lake effect machine kicks on once again tonight with an emphasis on

the NW-NNW snowbelts. Lake effect snows will continue into the day

on Thursday, waning in intensity through the day as conditions

become atmospherically unfavorable/hostile. The most persistent and

heaviest lake effect banding will be tonight into early Thursday,

with 3-5"+ of snow possible for the NW snow belts of eastern upper

and northern lower Michigan.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 349 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



Day 2-3 (Thursday - Friday):



Steady northwest flow in the wake of an upper level low passing to

our east Wed night into Thurs will produce lake effect snows. Best

snows will be Wednesday night into early Thursday with rising

heights aloft and increasing H850 temps leading to a slow

fizzling through the day on Thursday. Some congruency within

guidance for the potential for accumulating snows, could be

~3-6"+ locally across NW- NNW snow belts of eastern upper and

northwest lower MI. For reference, latest HREF shows medium

probs for 4+ inches across Kalkaska, Antrim, and Chippewa

counties, some leaking into western Otsego.



Little short wave within the broader flow moves to the southeast in

the vicinity of Michigan early on Friday, perhaps keeping a few lake

induced snow showers alive. After brief short wave ridging in

advance of the next system, sfc low pressure system and cold front

will sweep across northern Michigan later on Friday ushering in

another cold airmass and the renewed chance for lake effect snow.

Read on for more details.



Days 4-7 (Saturday - Tuesday):



Trough digs down across the Great Lakes region later Friday with

subsequent low pressure system and cold frontal boundary sweeping

across northern MI. Thus, colder temperatures (~teens during the

day, single digits at night) and lake effect/enhanced snow will be a

threat later Friday and through the weekend for snow belts of

eastern upper and northwest lower MI. Looks like the potential for

quite a few embedded short waves/upper lows, which would aid in

enhancing lake effect coverage and intensity during this time.

Anyone within the N to NW snowbelts are at play, with a focus on the

NW snowbelts for several more inches of snow this weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1134 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



Renewed lake effect snow showers in the process of ramping up on

the backside of departing low pressure as gusty north-northwest

winds draw in cooler air. While variable CIGs from VFR to MVFR

are anticipated through the afternoon/evening, localized

CIG/VSBY drops to IFR possible in any beefier snow showers --

primarily PLN/TVC/MBL. Low probabilities for LIFR conditions at

TVC/PLN later this afternoon into the early overnight hours.



More solid MVFR CIGs, along with additional lake effect snow

showers, expected to prevail later tonight into Thursday

morning. Gustiness largely continued through the majority of the

TAF period.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for

     MIZ020-025>036-041-042.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...MJG






                

                        

247

ACUS11 KWNS 101407

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101407

VTZ000-NYZ000-101800-



Mesoscale Discussion 2257

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 101407Z - 101800Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the

late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized

instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur.



DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become

established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from

the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the

Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb

convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a

saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic

growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy

snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early

afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from

the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates

are possible.



..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...



LAT...LON   42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354

            43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613

            42767646 42817652