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891
FLUS43 KAPX 230350
HWOAPX
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1150 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-240400-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1150 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Dangerously hot and muggy weather is expected through Monday.
Please see the latest heat advisory for additional details.
High swim risks are in place for many northern Michigan beaches.
Please see the latest beach hazard statement for additional
details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Dangerously hot and muggy weather is expected through Monday.
Please see the latest heat advisory for additional details.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front later Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe storms are possible with damaging
winds being the primary threat. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.
Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected at various times
Monday night through Friday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
$$
LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-240400-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1150 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front later Monday
afternoon and evening. Severe storms are possible with damaging
winds being the primary threat. Locally heavy rain is also
possible.
Additional chances for thunderstorms are expected at various times
Monday night through Friday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated.
For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
$$
338
ACUS01 KWNS 230542
SWODY1
SPC AC 230540
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes...
At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern
U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending
southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate
destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases
along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to
initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are
expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and
near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern
Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However,
low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which
could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat
occurring in the late afternoon and early evening.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much
of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead
of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this
corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat.
...Northern Maine...
At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern
New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface,
a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where
surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S
F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection
initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in
northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage
threat during the early to mid afternoon.
..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025
$$
472
ACUS02 KWNS 230602
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast
Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible
from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong
mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec,
resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the
East.
At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the
central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be
draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes
vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the
northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England.
...WY/CO into western NE/SD...
Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern
WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized
storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from
late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized
severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale
growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at
least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The
longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due
to increasing low-level stability.
...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes...
In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization
will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from
parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes,
along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be
focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any
remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak
along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will
support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally
damaging wind.
Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the
broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the
placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima
precludes higher probabilities at this time.
...Parts of the Northeast/New England...
Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating
will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the
Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and
deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow
and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may
eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm
development during the afternoon and evening.
...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic...
A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery
of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and
Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there
is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across
this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm
development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer
shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence
in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will
be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.
..Dean.. 06/23/2025
$$
466
NWUS53 KAPX 220209
LSRAPX
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 AM Lightning 1 E Traverse City 44.75N 85.57W
06/21/2025 Grand Traverse MI Public
Social media picture of large oak tree
significantly damaged by a lightning strike.
Location estimated.
&&
$$
814
FXUS63 KAPX 230542
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid through Monday with heat advisories in effect
- Severe thunderstorms possible late Monday afternoon/evening
- Active weather pattern much of next week with several shower
and thunderstorm chances
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
The heat goes on. Anomalously warm airmass continues to dominate
the weather across the eastern CONUS with 582 dam thickness planted
right over the Great Lakes. It is unusual to see such a widespread
area of 70+ degF dewpoints covering nearly all of Michigan. A
potentially record breaking warm night in store for northern
Michigan as min temperatures will offer little relief from the
daytime heat. For northern lower, "lows" 75-80 degf, with 65-70
degf in eastern upper. A very uncomfortable sleeping night for
those without air conditioning. The upper (and thermal) ridge begin
to slide slowly east tonight, with an upstream cold front poised to
approach the area on Monday (and bring eventual relief from the
heat/humidity).
One more hot/humid day on Monday with 850mb temperatures just a
touch lower than Sunday in response to gradually lowering
heights/increased clouds in advance of the cold front. Despite
this, widespread highs in the 90s for northern lower (80s
eastern upper) with triple digit heat indices once again. After
a brief period of lower PWAT`s, deeper moisture once again
begins to move into the area Monday afternoon as PWAT`s 200% of
normal fold into the northern lakes. Thunderstorms should
develop mid/late afternoon over eastern upper and northwest
lower in advance of front. Plenty of buoyancy (CAPE`s nearly
2000 j/kg) with unidirectional shear pointing toward more linear
storm development. Could certainly see a few severe storms
develop with damaging winds the primary threat. Given the surge
in PWAT`s and the somewhat skinny CAPE on the soundings,
locally heavy rain may also be an issue.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Cold front pushes into the area Monday night accompanied by showers
and thunderstorms. Still quite warm Monday night, although some
relief will arrive late from northwest to southeast with the
front. The remainder of week features an active weather pattern.
Numerous shortwaves will ride the northern periphery of the
upper ridge, interacting with a ribbon of unusually moist air
with PWAT`s of 150%+ of normal layed out across the Great Lakes.
It will be difficult to time any one of these features given
the fast flow but showers and storms will be in the forecast on
most days. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in
the 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected to persist across northern Michigan
through Monday afternoon. LLWS in excess of 30kts is possible
through tonight as surface winds relax some in combo with quickly
increasing winds of 40+ kts just off the surface. Southwest winds
will increase to 10-15 kts Monday morning into the afternoon with
gusts between 20-30 kts into the evening. Thunderstorm chances move
in from west to east across northern Michigan later Monday
afternoon, spreading to many areas of northwest lower and the Tip of
the Mitt in the 22Z Monday-06Z Tuesday time frame. A few storms may
be severe with the primary hazards of damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-
020>036-041-042-099.
Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ020-025-
031-095-096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for LHZ346-347.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
341-342-344>346.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DJC
435
ACUS11 KWNS 230304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230303
SDZ000-NEZ000-230430-
Mesoscale Discussion 1414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...
Valid 230303Z - 230430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
continue for several hours across parts of central NE and southeast
SD. A few instances of large hail will remain possible, but the
primary severe threat is diminishing.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to persist and increase in areal
coverage to the north of a surface cold front extending across
central NE. All of the storms in this region are elevated, but in
an environment of sufficient CAPE/shear to maintain some risk of
large hail for a few more hours. While there is some potential for
a watch extension beyond 04z, the primary severe concern appears to
be diminishing.
..Hart.. 06/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42930021 44349829 44329685 43499692 42279847 40680119
41870070 42930021
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
134
WGUS83 KAPX 211541
FLSAPX
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
MIC097-211551-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250621T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mackinac MI-
1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
The Flood Advisory will expire at 1145 AM EDT this morning for a
portion of eastern upper Michigan, including the following area,
Mackinac.
The heavy rain has ended...and thus new flooding is no longer
expected to pose a threat. However avoid areas where water remains
across roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4586 8456 4581 8465 4583 8467 4581 8470
4582 8481 4583 8483 4582 8485 4582 8489
4584 8491 4587 8493 4590 8490 4593 8483
4589 8458
$$
JPB