242

ACUS01 KWNS 211631

SWODY1

SPC AC 211629



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 211630Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally

severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the

southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.



...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...

Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave

trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the

far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the

Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes

this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging

from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of

the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated

today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered

by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to

be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as

the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited

low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep

mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential

for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and

early evening.



Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more

cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the

southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting

in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more

persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually

intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.

Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend

towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and

persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong

to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal

boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe

threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.



..Mosier/Chalmers.. 03/21/2026



$$






                

                        

880

ACUS02 KWNS 211725

SWODY2

SPC AC 211723



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO

VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging

wind gusts, and possibly some tornado threat are expected on Sunday

afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the

northern Mid Atlantic region.



...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to gradually amplify

on Sunday, as it moves from the northern Plains towards the Great

Lakes region. This amplification will occur within a broader

west-northwesterly flow regime, with relatively strong deep-layer

flow expected to eventually overspread the Ohio Valley and Mid

Atlantic regions. A cold front initially draped from the central

Plains into the Lower Great Lakes will move generally southeastward

through the period, as one or more frontal waves traverse the front

from the mid MS Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.



...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic...

A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will emanate out of

an anomalously hot and well-mixed regime across the Southwest and

central/southern Plains and overspread parts of the Ohio Valley on

Sunday. With favorable deep-layer flow/shear expected across the

Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, the primary uncertainty regarding the

magnitude of buoyancy and potential severe threat is low-level

moisture return. The partially modified nature of returning Gulf

moisture and a tendency for strong antecedent heating/mixing

upstream of the Ohio Valley may continue to result in less

aggressive moistening compared to most guidance. However, with

relatively cool midlevel temperatures (-14C to -16C at 500 mb), even

dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F will result in moderate buoyancy

(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) where sufficient heating occurs.



The greatest confidence in diurnal storm development currently

resides within the eastern portion of the primary buoyancy plume

across PA and eastern OH, where weaker capping and a modest

warm-advection regime could result in isolated to widely scattered

supercell development along/ahead of the front. Weaker ascent with

southwest extent reduces confidence in development across the lower

Ohio Valley, though isolated supercell development cannot be ruled

out in this region as well. An increase in storm coverage is

expected into Sunday night as the cold front begins to surge

southeastward, though much of the nocturnal activity may tend to be

anafrontal and somewhat elevated.



Large hail (potentially to the size of golf balls or larger) could

accompany any longer-lived supercells during the afternoon and

evening. The environment will also be favorable for damaging-wind

potential, especially where stronger diurnal heating occurs, though

potential for organized clustering is uncertain due to the eventual

undercutting frontal passage. Also, while flow will remain rather

veered, low-level shear/SRH may be sufficient to support some

supercell tornado threat, conditional upon sufficient low-level

moistening. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may

eventually be needed, if trends support more substantial moisture

return than currently expected.



..Dean.. 03/21/2026



$$






                

                        

884

NWUS53 KAPX 201255

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

855 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0825 AM     Freezing Rain    Millersburg             45.33N 84.06W

03/20/2026  E0.01 Inch       Presque Isle       MI   Trained Spotter



            Coating of ice.





&&



$$












                

                        

851

FXUS63 KAPX 211710

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

110 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Areas in eastern upper will primarily see times of light to

  moderate snow today, with totals adding up to 1 to 3 inches.

  Locally higher amounts up to 5 inches will be possible near

  the SOO.



- Times of light rain and/or wintry mix today for areas along

  and north of M-72 this afternoon. Drizzle and rain showers

  spread across most of northern lower tonight.



- Light precipitation chances linger into Sunday with cooler air

  gradually seeping in and settling over northern MI.



- An unsettled pattern continues next week, with the next

  chances for precipitation arriving Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Large scale pattern consists of an absolute UNIT of a ridge across

the western CONUS, driving all-time monthly record warmth by large

margins across the desert southwest, and daily record highs leaking

into the Plains. Quick zonal flow running WNW from Alberta to the

Great Lakes driving a series of waves, with a stationary / warm

front suppressing that warmth well south of northern Michigan. Open

wave with an associated 998mb surface low pressure currently driving

a warm advection wing across the region, with just enough saturation

to force some wet snow across eastern upper through the rest of the

afternoon, with some snowflakes flipping to rain across northern

lower. As far as accumulations go in eastern upper, anticipating a

general 1 to 3 inches of snow by the time snowfall tapers late this

afternoon into the evening, followed by a period of drizzle /

freezing drizzle through the evening into early tonight. Probably

not enough to drive headlines, will handle with an SPS.



Meanwhile, south of the bridge, surface warm front is currently

lifting through, and producing very large snowflakes transitioning

to sleet and drizzle as precipitation moves overhead. This should be

short lived, as northern lower winds up firmly in the warm sector

with temps warming considerably the farther south one goes this

afternoon. As such, have handled this snowfall with an SPS as well.

Temps should land in the mid-upper 30s to near 40 from the bridge to

M-72... which should hopefully stave off any icing concerns on

Mighty Mac... to near 50 along the M-55 corridor. Anticipating the

mild temps to hold overnight, with most places remaining above

freezing across northern lower. As a surface cold front passes

through, just enough moisture traverses the region to drive a band

of rain showers across northern lower midnight and after... probably

south of M-68... that could end as some snow flurries as a

polar airmass briefly reestablishes itself. This band of showers

should clear Saginaw Bay 12-14z / 8-10am Sunday.



Will have to contend with another period of low cloud / stratus

through the day Sunday as low-level moisture becomes trapped beneath

a subsidence inversion. This will stunt highs into the 30s with

quite the gloomy feel. Eventually, the influences of surface high

pressure in the wake of the cold front should produce enough

subsidence to scour out that moist layer later in the day Sunday,

which will lead to clearing skies from north to south late Sunday

afternoon into the evening. Lows will respond as such, dipping well

into the teens and perhaps even single digits in eastern upper /

Straits area. More sunshine in the cards for Monday as 500mb height

rises commence, but with the core of the polar airmass overhead,

anticipating below average highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. We do

commence a slight warming trend with temps returning to more

seasonable levels by midweek before we see-saw up and down to end

the week. This pattern of weak warm advection wings driving nuisance

light mixed precipitation events (snow north, rain south, some sort

of mix in between) will not slow down, with quick hitting systems

set to pass through both Tuesday and again Wednesday night into

Thursday. Will have to watch this closely... so far in March, it

seems as though Mackinac Bridge closures are about as common as the

sun coming up in the morning. That will continue to be possible

through next week as we do a good-old fashioned northern Michigan

thaw... slow and steady while the rest of the country basks in

warmth. So if you`re in the mood for late-season winter

recreation... we`re going to have plenty of it going into April.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 647 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



MVFR CIGs currently in place across much of northern Michigan are

expected to lower to IFR/LIFR later this morning/afternoon across

the eastern U.P. and far northern lower as a rain/snow mix works in

from the west. The exceptions to these CIGs will be MBL and TVC. VFR

CIGs at MBL likely persist into tonight while current LIFR CIGs at

TVC are expected to become VFR for a time this morning/early

afternoon before lowering to IFR again overnight. Drops to IFR VSBYs

are anticipated across areas of falling precip late this morning

into tonight. South-southeast winds around 10 kts look to turn to

north winds after midnight tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HAD

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

123

ACUS11 KWNS 170255

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 170255

NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-170500-



Mesoscale Discussion 0282

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0955 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...



Valid 170255Z - 170500Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71

continues.



SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over the next hour across

parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but a gradual weakening trend is expected

as a squall line moves into a more stable air mass.



DISCUSSION...Scattered reports of wind damage continue to filter in

as a shallow squall line pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Although most of this line will soon move offshore in the coming

hour or so, the northern portion of the line will continue to move

into NJ and perhaps far southern NY in the next few hours. Based on

recent velocity data and surface observations, damaging winds will

remain likely roughly over the next hour. With time, this band will

move into a cooler/drier air mass where temperatures are only in the

upper 50s (with pockets of low 60s). Based on the recent 00z OKX

RAOB and recent forecast soundings, these temperatures (coupled with

dewpoints in the low 50s) may be sufficiently cool to modulate

downward momentum flux to the surface within the convective

downdrafts. That said, the KOKX VWP continues to sample 70 knot

winds within the lowest 0.5 km, so an isolated damaging wind threat

may persist into southern NY as the line gradually weakens.

Confidence in the persistence of the damaging wind threat beyond the

next 1-2 hours is limited given the overall degradation of buoyancy

with northeastward extent; downstream watch issuance is not

expected.



..Moore.. 03/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...



LAT...LON   38007563 38877564 39687561 41087545 41337523 41557442

            41537402 41387357 41197321 40847303 40667305 40587336

            40467369 40267380 39977389 39657400 39147445 38717478

            38347496 38017510 37867521 37877539 37897550 38007563



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH








                

                        

344

WGUS43 KAPX 161513

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1113 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...The National Weather Service in Gaylord MI has issued a Flood

Warning for the following rivers in Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



For the Rifle River...including Sterling...Minor flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued this evening, or as needed.this

evening at 1115 PM EDT.



&&



MIC011-170315-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0002.260316T1615Z-260317T1500Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.260316T1615Z.260317T0000Z.260317T0900Z.NO/

1113 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.



* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.



* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.



* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, High water begins to impact canoe livery at

  River View Campground.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 10:30 AM EDT Monday the stage was 5.9 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this

    afternoon to 6.3 feet this evening. It will then fall below

    flood stage late tonight to 3.7 feet early Friday morning. It

    will rise to 4.0 feet Sunday evening. It will then fall again

    and remain below flood stage.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    6.4 feet on 06/14/2010.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



JZ






                

                        

220

WGUS83 KAPX 171837

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

237 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in

Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



MIC011-171945-

/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T1837Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.260316T1615Z.260317T0600Z.260317T1351Z.NO/

237 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...



The Flood Warning is cancelled for

  the Rifle River near Sterling.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 2:30 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 5.6 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise to 5.8 feet this evening. It

    will then fall to 3.9 feet early Friday morning. It will rise

    to 4.9 feet Monday morning. It will then fall again and

    remain below flood stage.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



MSB