Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

416

ACUS01 KWNS 251241

SWODY1

SPC AC 251239



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0739 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025



Valid 251300Z - 261200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the

Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible

from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.



...Synopsis...

A large upper ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS

this morning, although an upper low centered northeast of the

Bahamas is beginning to impinge on its southeastern periphery.

Early-morning satellite imagery also shows a well-defined shortwave

trough moving through southern CA and southern Great Basin.



Recent surface analysis reveals a large reservoir of low-level

moisture beneath this upper ridge, with low 70s dewpoints over much

of the OH and TN Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. This

low-level moisture extends across much of the Plains as well, with

mid 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central/southeast SD. A

diffuse, somewhat wavy stationary boundary exists between this moist

airmass and the drier, more continental airmass edging into the

northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes.



This large area of ample low-level moisture will support potential

thunderstorms much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Highest

coverage of strong to severe storms is anticipated across the Mid MO

Valley and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic, with more widely scattered

strong to severe storms across the northern and central High Plains

and along the frontal zone across the northern OH Valley.



...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast...

In addition to the moist airmass described in the synopsis, a pocket

of seasonally cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -10 deg C at

500 mb) associated with the Bahamas upper low extends into the

region. 12Z MHX and CHS soundings sampled -10 and -12 deg C at 500

mb, and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.9 and 8.4 deg C per km,

respectively. These thermodynamic conditions will result in very

strong buoyancy as the airmass diurnally heats this afternoon.

MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg is anticipated from AL eastward into the

Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is expected once convective

inhibition erodes around 18Z, with the very strong buoyancy

supporting intense updrafts. Vertical shear will be weak, with

erratic storm motions and a multicellular, pulse mode likely. Even

so, steep low-level lapse rates should support strong downdrafts and

numerous instances of damaging gusts are expected. These storms will

likely wane with the loss of daytime heating.



...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley...

Low-level moisture advection across the region today will bring low

70s dewpoints in southern MN by the late afternoon, while also

sharpening a warm frontal zone. By 18Z this warm front is forecast

to extend from a low over the central NE/SD border vicinity to near

the MN/IA border. Convergence along this boundary, as well as ascent

attendant to a convectively generated vorticity maximum rounding the

upper ridge, is expected to promote thunderstorm development within

the moderate buoyant airmass in place. Moderate southwesterly flow

aloft is anticipated over the region as well, with the resulting

combination of buoyancy and shear supporting strong to severe

storms. A few supercells are possible, but one or more bowing line

segments capable of damaging gusts are the primary severe threat.



...Northern/Central High Plains...

The shortwave trough that currently extends from central MT trough

eastern ID is forecast to continue eastward today. Ahead of the

trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon

from eastern Colorado northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface

temperatures warm today, scattered convective initiation will take

place in the higher terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward

into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Vertical shear will

be modest, with the strongest shear across the northern High Plains,

but high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could still

support damaging wind gusts along surging cold pools. Isolated hail

is possible across the higher terrain as well.



..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/25/2025



$$






                

                        

714

ACUS02 KWNS 250529

SWODY2

SPC AC 250527



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1227 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE

SOUTHEAST...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to

Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of

Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main

concern.



...Synopsis...

A weak upper low will remain over FL, with relatively cool midlevel

temperatures over the Southeast, although warmer compared to the

previous day. Otherwise, much of the east will remain beneath an

upper ridge. Around the northern periphery of this ridge, modest

southwest flow aloft will stretch from the central Plains into the

Great Lakes and Northeast, with relatively warm temperatures aloft.

To the west, a low-amplitude upper trough will push east across MT,

steepening midlevel lapse rates.



At the surface, an expansive area of moisture will persist from the

central and southern Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic, south of a

cold front. This front will extend from KS into southern WI and

Lower MI, and also from central NY into eastern PA.



...Much of the Southeast...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of

AL, GA, and the FL Panhandle, with locally damaging gusts possible.

Though any early convection may provide a relative stable area

during the day, addition development is likely west through north,

from MS into northern AL and northeastward across the Appalachians,

VA/MD and the western Carolinas. Forecast soundings reveal a

moderately unstable air mass. Predictability is a bit low to denote

a Slight Risk given uncertainties with potential ongoing

convection/stabilization, but portions of the region could need

higher wind probabilities in later updates.



...Central Plains into the Lower Great Lakes...

Daytime heating of a moist air mass will lead to over 2000 J/kg

MUCAPE, with scattered to numerous storms along the boundary from

central KS into IA, southern MN and WI. Multicellular clusters are

expected due to little shear, but a bit stronger westerlies from IA

into WI and lower MI could result in faster motions and perhaps a

corridor of hail and wind. The primary concern will be locally

damaging gusts across the entire area.



...Northeast MT...

Steep deep-layer lapse rates will develop due to daytime heating as

the upper trough nears, with cooling temperatures aloft. Storms are

likely from west-central MT into eastern MT during the day, with the

strongest instability near the weak surface trough across eastern

MT. Deep mixed layers and modest westerly flow suggest a few storms

may produce strong outflow, or small hail during the late afternoon

and evening, perhaps as far east as western ND.



..Jewell.. 06/25/2025



$$






                

                        

016

NWUS53 KAPX 241240

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

840 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0955 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSW Rogers City       45.40N 83.82W

06/23/2025  M38 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KPZQ Rogers City - Presque Isle

            County Arpt.





&&



$$












                

                        

843

FXUS63 KAPX 251052

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

652 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain/storm chances return late tonight, lasting through Friday. A

stronger storm or two is possible, especially toward M-55 Thursday.



- Heavy rain possible tonight through Friday, especially Thursday

night



- Additional storm chances through the rest of the period.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



Ridge axis rotating a bit more toward the central US...becoming

flattened out over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as pieces of PV

rotate through central/eastern Canada; 120+kt upper jet to our north

attm overtop a tighter thermal gradient for a change...with

downright hot weather fading southward as a weak boundary/col region

sinks through Michigan. Bit of split flow trying to take shape

across the western US...with subtle ridging over the PacNW and

troughing down into SoCal. Western US remains largely dry compared

to areas beneath the ridge...where pwats of 1.5+inches prevail,

particularly along the perimeter of the ridge...picking up a bit of

monsoonal moisture from New Mexico on its trek into the Upper

Midwest/Great Lakes. However...a bit of drier air oozing in from the

north as high pressure spins across Lake Superior, with dewpoints in

the mid 40s across the EUP.



Piece of PV rotating across Ontario attm will continue to head

eastward today...allowing for heights to build across the Upper MS

Valley again...as a bit of energy begins to eject from the SW US.

Moisture return along and north of the old boundary as the wave

tracks into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will result in additional

rain and thunder chances going into Thursday and Friday.

Southwesterly flow strengthens again across the Upper Midwest this

weekend, particularly Sunday, as additional energy treks along the

International Border. Flow across western Canada then looks to

amplify, resulting in troughing digging into the region early next

week. This suggests shower/storm chances hanging on right into the

end of the weekend/start of the work week...along with the potential

for a cooling trend into the start of July.



Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:



Rain chances/return of rain chances...A few showers/sprinkles may

remain possible along the M-55 corridor today, closer to the

boundary and better moisture. Think most of the area will remain dry

today, though...until return flow begins to pick up to our west late

this afternoon, leading to development of warm advection

showers/storms from WI eastward into NW Lower. Initial setup across

the Upper Midwest has the appearance of a Maddox Frontal type setup

for heavy rain...thus, the first round of heavy rain concerns is

tonight. Best shower/storm chances should remain to our west

initially...but better forcing should make its way into the region

through the night from the west as the LLJ veers with time. Do

wonder if the LLJ may be a little too parallel to the boundary to

maximize the heavy rain threat for us as opposed to points

westward...but setup is still favorable enough to warrant concern.

Additionally...will have to see how aggressive drying is today to

see if this will have any impact on how quickly rain can start to

move in. Does appear some elevated instability will try to sneak in

late tonight, which should bring in some rumbles of thunder.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025



Primary forecast concerns into next weekend:



Heavy rain threat Thursday/Friday...Still have concerns about heavy

rain potential somewhere across the area, though not expecting it

necessarily all at once. Think there may actually be a break...or at

least, a break in the better action...during the day on Thursday,

with signals for deeper moisture to depart for a time, leaving us

stuck under a low level stratus deck north of the front. Best

signals for heavy rain to take place, potentially for us, appear to

be Thursday night as the PV max approaches, providing additional

support for forcing across the region. Still a lot of question as to

where the heaviest corridor of rainfall will develop...but think

somewhere in the vicinity of the Tip of the Mitt/EUP is a reasonable

risk area attm given current expectation for the surface front to

stall somewhere across central Michigan Thursday...as the heaviest

precip should be driven by synoptic/fgen forcing well north of the

surface front. Going into Friday...lingering deep moisture combined

with potential for forcing along the cold front as the surface

system tracks across the area could certainly lead to some better

rainfall totals with convection...though signals for heavy rain may

not be quite as good Friday as opposed to Thursday night for us.

Probabilistic guidance is hinting at decent potential for at least

an inch in 24hrs centered on Thursday night, but suspect uncertainty

in position of the heavier swaths of rain is causing probabilistic

guidance to wash out greater confidence in amounts. Anomalous

moisture plus a favorable heavy rain setup, though, suggests some

area (whether over us or WI) could see a couple inches or more of

rain by Friday afternoon.



Thunder threat Thursday/Friday...Primary concern for severe weather

remains centered on the position of the front Thursday...as that

should be the cutoff for better convective instability. Current

expectation brings the front up toward US-10/M-55 during the

afternoon...and this is where the greater threat for stronger

convection lies, as it would have a better shot at being surface

based. Not entirely dissimilar to the last event...better shear may

remain north of the boundary and disconnected from best

instability/forcing and limit better storm organization. This being

said...noting guidance soundings progging some elevated instability

north of the front (albeit with a strong low-level inversion)...do

wonder if we could end up with some stronger embedded convection

within the more stratiform-esque rain. Think perhaps a better chance

for stronger storms in the region could be Friday, depending on the

track of the surface low and timing of cold front it will most

likely be dragging along with it...as some guidance would like to

develop some better instability ahead of whatever forcing is

attendant to the surface low.



Additional potential for storms through the period...For

now...expecting Saturday night into Sunday to be dry. However...with

ridge building across the Upper Midwest again...not impossible we

could end up with some MCS development upstream Saturday night that

tries to track in Sunday...which could strongly cool highs Sunday

compared to current thoughts (upper 80s to near 90 is possible again

otherwise)...and perhaps throw a wrench into instability available

Sunday...though lots of time between now and then to figure this

out. Otherwise...late Sunday into Monday looks like a favorable

timeframe for additional convection as the upper trough approaches

the region.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025



VFR today, though some areas of MVFR cigs will settle just south

of MBL. Clouds thicken and lower tonight, and some showers break

out at TVC/MBL, with a smaller chance for the other sites. MVFR

cigs/vsbys are at least briefly possible. Light n to ne winds.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...FEF

LONG TERM...FEF

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

852

ACUS11 KWNS 242344

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 242343

WYZ000-250145-



Mesoscale Discussion 1431

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0643 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025



Areas affected...Parts of Wyoming



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 242343Z - 250145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this evening. Hail, wind,

and perhaps a brief tornado are the main threats. Storm coverage

should be too sparse to warrant a watch.



DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a very weak disturbance may

be ejecting northeast across eastern ID/northwestern WY. Some

flattening of the height field is expected across northern WY over

the next few hours. Southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the

Plains has forced moisture deep into central WY, and up against the

Big Horn Mountains. While surface-based parcels are likely capped

east of the higher terrain, one lone supercell has developed over

Natrona County, while deepening cu field is noted over eastern

Fremont County. Severe hail is likely noted with the Natrona storm,

and is possible with any supercells this evening. There is some

concern the southern influence of the aforementioned short wave may

encourage another storm or two to form along the southern portions

of the Big Horns over the next few hours. If so, this activity would

spread into portions of northeast WY where shear profiles favor

supercells, but the boundary layer is a bit cooler. At this time it

appears activity may prove too sparse to warrant a watch.



..Darrow/Smith.. 06/24/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...



LAT...LON   43240705 44220591 43310502 42750628 43240705



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN








                

                        

134

WGUS83 KAPX 211541

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025



MIC097-211551-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250621T1545Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Mackinac MI-

1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM EDT THIS MORNING...



The Flood Advisory will expire at 1145 AM EDT this morning for a

portion of eastern upper Michigan, including the following area,

Mackinac.



The heavy rain has ended...and thus new flooding is no longer

expected to pose a threat. However avoid areas where water remains

across roadways.



&&



LAT...LON 4586 8456 4581 8465 4583 8467 4581 8470

      4582 8481 4583 8483 4582 8485 4582 8489

      4584 8491 4587 8493 4590 8490 4593 8483

      4589 8458





$$



JPB