Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

046

ACUS01 KWNS 131641

SWODY1

SPC AC 131639



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026



Valid 131630Z - 141200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible

across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this

afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may

also occur across parts of the central and northern High Plains.



...Northeast and upper/middle Ohio Valley...

Have upgraded portions of the region to a categorical Slight Risk

with expectations of a semi-focused regional corridor of wind damage

later this afternoon through early evening. Within large-scale upper

troughing over eastern Canada, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level

jet will overspread the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and

Northeast later today into tonight. A surface cold front will

likewise track eastward across these regions through tonight. A

seasonably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the

cold front, but poor lapse rates aloft (around 6-6.5 C/km) and cloud

cover should limit the degree of destabilization that can occur this

afternoon, although cloud cover has tended to thin/abate since early

this morning across the upper Ohio Valley. While the main influence

of the upstream upper-level trough will not arrive until this

evening, strengthening mid-level flow through the day will support

35-45 kt of deep-layer shear and the potential for organized bands

of convection.



At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop

along/ahead of the front by mid afternoon (around 19-22Z) from parts

of Ohio into western New York, and then spread quickly eastward

across the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The deep-layer

shear will be strong enough for some supercells initially, with

perhaps a marginal/isolated hail threat even with the poor lapse

rates present aloft. But, clusters/bowing segments with an isolated

damaging wind threat should quickly develop given the linear forcing

of the front. This convection is forecast to weaken with eastward

extent this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling, and as it

encounters a less unstable airmass.



...Wyoming and central/northern High Plains to Missouri Valley...

A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning

will move eastward to the northern Rockies/High Plains through the

period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of

this low, though a narrow zone of weak instability may develop by

late afternoon across southern Wyoming, and across northeast

Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle in a modest low-level upslope

flow regime. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected with

sufficient wind profiles for isolated severe hail/wind potential.



Elevated thunderstorms should again increase in coverage across

western/central South Dakota towards the mid Missouri Valley late

tonight into early Monday morning. Moderate MUCAPE and sufficient

cloud-layer shear could support an isolated hail threat with the

initial development across western/southern South Dakota, though

mergers/interactions and weakening buoyancy will likely limit the

longevity and eastward extent of this threat into the mid Missouri

Valley.



..Guyer/Weinman.. 09/13/2026



$$






                

                        

223

ACUS02 KWNS 131731

SWODY2

SPC AC 131729



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST

NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern

Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.



...Discussion...

A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday

with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface

pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and

a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist

airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with

mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.



Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period

across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota into Iowa amid moderate

isentropic ascent. In the wake of this morning activity, northward

recovery will occur across northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska

and southwest Iowa. Within this zone, a narrow period of favorable

conditions is forecast to develop ahead of front from southeast

Nebraska northward. Most guidance shows storms developing within an

environment featuring 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 30 to 35 knots of

effective shear during the afternoon. This would support a supercell

storm mode. If this discrete storm mode can be maintained, a EF2+

tornado threat will exist given the nearly purely streamwise

vorticity in the lowest 2km from RAP forecast soundings in the

region. Limiting factors to this scenario are multiple storms

developing along the front and quickly growing upscale and a lack of

strong venting flow aloft which may result in disruptive downbursts

before a more organized, strong low-level mesocyclone can develop.



Farther southwest, moderate instability and strong heating/lapse

rates may support isolated damaging wind gusts. Some guidance shows

~30 knots of effective shear which could support some marginally

rotating storms. If this occurs, some isolated large hail may be

possible. The 5% hail probability has been extended southwestward to

account for this threat.



Elevated thunderstorms will persist into the overnight period across

southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois within a strong low-level

jet and isentropic ascent. However, only modest elevated instability

and limited cloud-bearing shear should preclude much severe threat

farther east into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.



..Bentley.. 09/13/2026



$$






                

                        

097

NWUS53 KAPX 100020

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

820 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0544 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Sault Ste. Marie    46.47N 84.37W

09/09/2026  M43 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KANJ Sault Ste Marie -

            Municipal Airport.



0624 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Sault Ste. Marie  46.50N 84.37W

09/09/2026  M41 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station SWPM4 S.W. Pier, MI.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

591

FXUS63 KAPX 131810

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

210 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cool temperatures tonight with a few colder pockets dipping into

the 30s



- Windy and wet Monday night into Tuesday



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026



Fast moving upper flow across the northern tier of the CONUS with

Pacific energy sliding over a developing ridge and into the

Great Lakes. Synoptically, this upcoming pattern has heavy rain

potential signals for parts of the Great Lakes. This includes

impressive northward moisture transport, favorable upper level

jet energy north of a strengthening upper ridge and a stalled

out frontal boundary over the northern Ohio Valley/southern

Lakes. A tightening pressure gradient early in the week will

create windy conditions as well.



Surface high pressure slides across the area tonight, setting the

area up for very cool temperatures.  Widespread 40s over interior

areas with typical colder locations in the mid to upper 30s (a touch

of patchy frost?).  A few wildcards in the forecast which could

impact temperatures include some lingering lake cloud potential into

the evening and the possibility that we don`t fully decouple the

winds until the surface high drifts more directly overhead.



We are still looking at widespread rain potential Monday night

into early Tuesday with strengthening moist, southwest flow in

advance of a cold front. Models have backed off a little on the

broader heavy rain signals for northern Michigan, placing the

best f-gen response and moisture transport primarily to our west

Monday night and to our south on Tuesday. Prob QPF numbers

still show some potential for 1"+ rainfall amounts, although

those numbers have trended downward in recent runs. The pattern

is fairly progressive, as the shortwave energy shears out over

Ontario and the front slides across the area by later Tuesday.

Winds will certainly ramp up Monday night into early Tuesday

with a 40+ knot low level jet in the weakening phase as it

pushes toward our area. Not the most favorable pattern to fully

mix these winds to the surface given continued warm air

advection. Despite that, think some areas closer to Lake

Michigan could see 40+ mph gusts, lower inland.



Some question marks for the middle/end of the week as additional

shortwave energy rides along a quasi-stationary boundary to our

south.  Best rain potential will be south, closer to the boundary

but at least some shower chances for the second half of the week

over northern Michigan.  A stronger shortwave may move toward the

Great Lakes next weekend, bringing better chances of widespread

rain. Temperatures generally fairly close to normal for mid

September, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the

40s to mid 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026



Prevailing VFR conditions across northern Michigan this

afternoon...combination of lake/diurnal Sc/Cu and a mid level

overcast across northern Lower...with broken convective clouds

and showers across Lake Superior and central/eastern Upper

Michigan. Showers may sag into far northern/northeast Lower

later this afternoon...with occasional MVFR visibilities at

KCIU/KPLN/KAPN. High pressure builds into Michigan

overnight...may still be some lake induced Sc around but

anticipating VFR conditions through Monday morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-

     018-020-025-031-099.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ347>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JK

AVIATION...JPB






                

                        

334

ACUS11 KWNS 130036

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 130036

KSZ000-OKZ000-130130-



Mesoscale Discussion 2291

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026



Areas affected...portions of southern Kansas into far northern

Oklahoma



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 130036Z - 130130Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail will increase over the

next few hours as storms increase in coverage and traverse a surface

boundary over southern KS. A few significant severe wind/hail events

may occur with the strongest storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch

will be considered in the short term.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are rapidly increasing in coverage and

intensity along a surface baroclinic boundary. These storms are

expected to propagate eastward along the boundary over the next

several hours, where ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear are

present (i.e. 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear,

respectively). Supercells and multicells should be the main storm

mode, at least initially. However, if storms can merge, then a

cold-pool-driven MCS may manifest. Given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse

rates present (per the 00Z DDC observed sounding), supercell

structures may produce 2+ inch diameter hail, with 75+ mph gusts

possible with multicell structures or especially an MCS.



..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/13/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...



LAT...LON   37859887 37849689 37649582 37309561 37029581 36849654

            36809733 36869791 37059845 37859887



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN