748

ACUS01 KWNS 161626

SWODY1

SPC AC 161624



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Valid 161630Z - 171200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO

SOUTHERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN

MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New

York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado

or two the primary threats.  Large to very large hail is possible

with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.



...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

Recent visible satellite imagery shows some ACCAS across

south-central MO, indicative of low/mid-level warm advection amid

the steep lapse rate environment in place. These steep lapse rates

are forecast to continue spread eastward, while low-level moisture

advection brings low 60s dewpoints northeastward into the region as

well. This will result in a moderate to strongly buoyant airmass

(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by the early afternoon.

Additionally, moderate mid to high level flow will remain in place,

resulting in long hodographs and overall environmental conditions

that are very favorable for supercells capable of large to very

large hail. Latest guidance continues the earlier trends of

developing storms in this area, which match observational

expectations as well. Large to very large hail  (1 to 3 inches in

diameter) is possible with any updrafts that mature into supercells.

Low-level flow is weak, keeping tornado probability low but none

zero. Given the modest pocket of mid-level dry air present,

supercells will likely become outflow dominant with time,

supporting the potential for damaging gusts across the region

(particular eastern areas) as well.



...NY/VT/NH southeastward into the central Appalachians...

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern

Ontario/southern Quebec border vicinity, with modest surface

troughing extending southeastward from this low across central Lower

MI. Airmass across much of NY is characterized by dewpoints in the

low 60s. Dewpoints should stay in the low 60s throughout the day

despite modest mixing amid diurnal heating. This should result in

airmass destabilization ahead of the modest surface trough, with a

general increase in large-scale ascent beginning during the

afternoon as well. Little to no convective inhibition is

anticipated, supporting the potential for more cellular development

over the warm sector initially, before a more expansive convective

line develops along the eastward-progressing surface trough. Ample

mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including a

risk for large hail and a tornado with the more intense discrete

cells. The wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that

evolve over time.  An isolated threat for wind damage and  perhaps

hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau,

where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.



...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...

A strongly buoyant and weakly capped airmass is expected to develop

along the dryline extending southwestward from western OK through

the Edwards Plateau. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is

expected throughout much of the morning into the late afternoon,

some limited ascent (associated with a weak shortwave trough moving

out of northern Mexico) may begin to spread across the dryline by

early evening. This combined with dryline circulations may be enough

to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Low-level

flow will be weak, but moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will

result in wind profiles very favorable for supercells capable of

large to very large hail. Any storms that develop should weaken

quickly with the onset of nocturnal cooling.



..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/16/2026



$$






                

                        

147

ACUS02 KWNS 161743

SWODY2

SPC AC 161741



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM

WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the

southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity

Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large

hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.



...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains

during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into

upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the

entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level

temperatures will already be relatively cool.



During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,

with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and

northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI

during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the

cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass

ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the

evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from

Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.



The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample

moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,

including all modes of severe.



...From IA into WI and northwest IL...

Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early

evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While

convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in

a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,

along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and

near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape

late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z

ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,

conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to

indicate stronger tornado potential.



Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with

damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake

MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and

lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet

brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.



...OK/KS/MO...

A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front

Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several

tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer

shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while

the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and

likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support

tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity

is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of

destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much

of MO and into northern OK through the evening.



..Jewell.. 04/16/2026



$$






                

                        

677

NWUS53 KAPX 150407

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1207 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1050 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 S Kingsley            44.50N 85.53W

04/14/2026                   Wexford            MI   Amateur Radio



            Delayed report. Lots of 10-12 inch trees

            down, generally in one direction. Damage

            seems to be condensed to a small area

            between given location and county line rd.

            Time estimated from radar.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

081

FXUS63 KAPX 161602

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1202 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Ongoing widespread historic flooding to continue, with some

 improvements possible in areas that see little to no rainfall

 over the next 36 hours.



-Additional shower and thunder potential this afternoon and

 evening, mainly near Saginaw Bay where localized 1"+ amounts

 are possible.



-Following a dry break Friday, a larger system is set to move in

 Friday night through Saturday, bringing more shower / thunder

 potential to ALL of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan.



-Trending sharply colder Saturday into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1159 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Pattern Synopsis:



Weak troughing currently lifting over the Great Lakes today will

work east with time tonight. Ridging over the Midwest will slide

overhead by Friday, building in surface high pressure across the

region for a brief time to end the week. Strong, expansive troughing

will churn across much of the northern CONUS, including the Great

Lakes, through this weekend. Impressive forcing will help deepen a

cyclone that is set to track from the central Great Plains into

Ontario by late Friday night/Saturday morning. The attendant cold

front is expected to swing across the area in the early Saturday

morning/early Saturday afternoon time frame. High pressure looks to

build in behind this system to start next week.



Forecast Details:



Showers across parts of northern lower Michigan will continue to

work east over Lake Huron early this afternoon, making way for

additional chances for showers and storms down near Saginaw Bay

later this afternoon and early evening. These showers/storms bring

additional concerns across flood-impacted portions of our southeast

counties. While forecast totals range around 0.25" to 0.5", there`s

potential for localized amounts of 1"+ of additional rainfall in a

short time later today should any heavy showers/storms form across

this area.



Rain chances end this evening as high pressure builds in, making for

a pleasant day and a much-welcomed break from rain chances on

Friday. Sunny skies and highs mainly in the 60s and low 70s are in

store, except for cooler readings along the Lake Huron shoreline.

Unfortunately, shower/storm chances return Friday evening into

Saturday ahead of the aforementioned cold front. An additional 0.25"

to 0.5" is forecast for many areas of northern Michigan with the

potential yet again for amounts of 1"+, especially with any strong

storms that track across Lake Michigan from Wisconsin. This portion

of the forecast is being closely monitored given ongoing flooding

that will last for many days ahead.



As the cold front swings through Saturday, temperatures will turn

sharply colder by the afternoon and evening -- down into the 20s and

30s by Saturday night and lasting into Monday. Given gusty northwest

winds, wind chills temperatures are expected to drop into the teens

for most of the day on Sunday -- something to keep in mind for flood

recovery efforts this weekend. Looking into next week, precipitation

chances appear low through the majority of the week at this time,

which would be a much-needed break across the area should this

materialize.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 656 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



LIFR grunge continues this morning with light/vrb winds and fog.

Scattered rain showers possible thru midday esp for TVC, MBL, APN

with slight improvements to IFR possible as winds turn subtly N/NW

this afternoon. Lake breezes possible at APN/TVC. Expect cigs to SCT

at CIU and PLN around 16-19z with largely MVFR-VFR conditions this

afternoon, and closer to 19-21z for TVC/APN; will be slowest to

reach MBL. Things likely to fog in to LIFR conditions again tonight

as winds go light/vrb again. Winds will eventually turn around to

the S/SE and increase to 5-10kts toward 12z.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ086>088-095-096.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DJC

AVIATION...FEF






                

                        

684

ACUS11 KWNS 161737

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 161736

VTZ000-NYZ000-161930-



Mesoscale Discussion 0463

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York...and

southern Vermont



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 161736Z - 161930Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail should increase through

the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW issuance may

be needed in the next couple of hours.



DISCUSSION...The mid-level trough over the Great Lakes is impinging

on the Northeast, with some heating beneath a cirrus plume

supporting boundary layer mixing/destabilization. Surface

temperatures are approaching 80 F in spots, with convective

temperatures close to being breached (based in RAP forecast

soundings). Visible satellite depicts a rapidly developing CU field

beneath the cirrus, and the approach of the upper trough should

provide added lift for ascent over central into eastern NY over the

next few hours. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading 60+ F

surface dewpoints, yielding close to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, which should

further increase into the afternoon. Strong southwesterly flow aloft

from the approaching mid-level trough is also contributing to over

50 kts of effective bulk shear. This speed shear and aforementioned

instability will support multicells and supercells once storms

initiate and mature. Severe wind and hail are both the main

concerns, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Convective

trends are being monitored for potential Severe Thunderstorm Watch

issuance.



..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...



LAT...LON   43087861 43437703 43657598 43827411 43687328 43397275

            43017270 42637404 42517449 42387577 42317716 42207790

            42307842 43087861



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

593

WGUS53 KAPX 161753

FFWAPX

MIC011-170400-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0012.260416T1753Z-260417T0400Z/

/00000.U.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

153 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a



* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Central Arenac County in northern Michigan...



* Until midnight EDT tonight.



* At 153 PM EDT, county emergency management reported debris removal

  resulting in rapid water rises along the Rifle River downstream of

  Omer.



  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding from rapid water

           rises.



  SOURCE...County emergency management.



  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas along the

           river downstream of the bridge at US-23 in Omer.



* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Omer.



Flooding is occurring along the Rifle River.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



If you are in low lying areas below the you should move to higher

ground immediately. Follow evacuation instructions provided by your

local emergency officials. Do not attempt to drive across flooded

roadways. Call 911 if you need assistance.



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



&&



LAT...LON 4399 8376 4398 8378 4399 8379 4399 8380

      4400 8380 4400 8381 4400 8382 4404 8386

      4405 8386 4405 8385 4404 8385 4401 8379

      4399 8377



FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE



$$



MJG






                

                        

922

WGUS43 KAPX 160342

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1142 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026



...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and

increased in duration for the following rivers in Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



For the Rifle River...including Sterling...Moderate flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued Thursday morning.Thursday morning

at 1145 AM EDT.



&&



MIC011-161545-

/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260419T1200Z/

/STRM4.2.ER.260412T2022Z.260414T1400Z.260419T0600Z.NO/

1142 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026



...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is

  forecast.



* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.



* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.



* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, High water impacts property south of

  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 11:30 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours

    ending at 11:30 PM EDT Wednesday was 10.8 feet.

  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 11.0

    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage

    early Sunday morning.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    11.0 feet on 05/21/1959.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



JZ






                

                        

617

WGUS83 KAPX 161527

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1127 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



MIC001-011-039-051-069-129-135-143-200000-

/O.CON.KAPX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260420T0000Z/

/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Alcona MI-Arenac MI-Crawford MI-Gladwin MI-Iosco MI-Ogemaw MI-

Oscoda MI-Roscommon MI-

1127 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026



...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Alcona, Arenac, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw, Oscoda

  and Roscommon.



* WHEN...Until 800 PM EDT Sunday.



* IMPACTS...Flooding is occurring following recent heavy rainfall

  and snowmelt. Roads and structures near lakes and rivers will

  continue to see high water levels and potential wash outs.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1126 AM EDT, ongoing flooding is being experienced across

    the area and will likely continue for the next several days.

    Between 3 and 6.5 inches of rain have fallen over the last

    several days.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become

unstable and unsafe.



Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law

enforcement and request they pass this information to the National

Weather Service when you can do so safely.



&&



LAT...LON 4391 8391 4391 8403 4400 8405 4400 8417

      4383 8417 4381 8461 4416 8461 4416 8485

      4451 8485 4451 8332 4442 8329 4430 8332

      4419 8351 4419 8356 4405 8358 4404 8367

      4399 8368 4400 8383





$$



MJG