Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

586

ACUS01 KWNS 230536

SWODY1

SPC AC 230534



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1134 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF WESTERN

INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated hail is possible beginning this afternoon across parts of

west to north-central Texas.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

An upper low will pivot from AZ into CO today, with a midlevel speed

max moving into the southern High Plains. Cooling aloft will persist

across the region throughout the period, leading to steepening lapse

rates aloft.



At the surface, high pressure will maintain relatively cool surface

temperatures over the Plains and MS Valley, though 50s F dewpoints

will develop northward into western TX, and near 60 F dewpoints into

central TX by 12Z Monday.



As the upper trough emerges into the plains, large-scale ascent will

move out of NM and into TX and western OK. While the surface air

mass will be cool most areas, elevated instability should be

substantial due to a southerly low-level jet with strong theta-e

advection. Forecast soundings suggest perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE will

be possible, along with favorable effective shear over 40 kt. As

such, elevated convection should strengthen from eastern NM into

western TX, with the greatest severe hail potential over TX where

instability will be strongest. Isolated large hail seems likely

after about 18Z.



Otherwise, there is a conditional threat of an isolated,

surface-based supercell over far western TX in the Pecos/Fort

Stockton area, where a narrow zone of SBCAPE may develop due to

stronger heating. However, it is uncertain if any storms will form

along the weak boundary.



..Jewell/Halbert.. 11/23/2025



$$






                

                        

233

ACUS02 KWNS 230654

SWODY2

SPC AC 230652



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO

FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday

afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the

Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging

winds are anticipated.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern

states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the

Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will

dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across

the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast

Monday morning will lift north through the day.



...East Texas to southern Arkansas...

Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the

period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of

a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but

a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The

warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to

moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode

is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some

marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should

begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector

and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.

This should result in scattered supercell development within the

open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet

(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this

same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late

afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)

could occur.



A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late

evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to

maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where

cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.



..Bentley.. 11/23/2025



$$






                

                        

970

FXUS63 KAPX 230805

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

305 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy today; milder to start the week, with rain returning Monday

night/Tuesday.



- Rain transitions to snow Wednesday; gusty winds, colder

temperatures, and accumulating lake effect snow are expected from

late Wednesday into early Friday.



- Active weather remains on the horizon through next weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



Ridging over the NW US, with a 100kt upper jet crossing southern

Canada and dragging Pacific moisture inland. Upper low still hanging

over the SW US, with its own punch of Pacific moisture into the

Desert SW/TX. Southeastern US ridge continues to be suppressed,

keeping the bulk of the moisture closer to the Gulf Coast. Here in

the Great Lakes...negatively tilted shortwave axis stretches from

central Canada into the Michigan as of 0z/23...with attendant

surface system crossing the region. Best saturation and dynamics

remain along/north of Lake Superior...though additional low-level

moisture is filtering in behind this and attendant cold front on

strengthening NW flow. Otherwise...southeastern US ridge continues

to be suppressed...keeping the better moisture along the Gulf Coast

into the Carolinas/Georgia.



We`ll be on the backside of the shortwave trough and surface system

this morning...though weak cold advection will keep some NW flow

lake effect in play for a time, esp for the EUP. Current thinking is

it remains warm enough in the low-levels that whatever falls should

be mainly rain...though a few flakes can`t be ruled out. Warm

advection aloft begins later this afternoon/tonight as ridging

builds eastward into the region. Increasing return flow over the

Upper MS Valley tonight could lead to some mid/high clouds

overspreading parts of the area along a subtle boundary, loosely

connected to a subtle northern stream disturbance passing well north

of us Sunday night into Monday...though with antecedent dry air in

place...not expecting much, if anything, out of this feature

tonight.



Primary Forecast Concerns through tonight:



Expecting a breezy day today between exiting low pressure and

incoming high pressure...with sustained winds 5-15kts from the

NW/WNW, esp for the first half of the day. 30+kt low-level jet will

only add to this, particularly for the first half of the day into

early afternoon, while cold advection helps enhance downward

momentum transfer. Expect gales, especially for northern Lake Huron

(and for our nearshores, near Presque Isle Light) as well as

Whitefish Bay...and think gusts could be a little closer to 30kts

over land as well. Not out of the question some 40-ish kt gusts

could occur (esp over the waters), but greatest confidence in

widespread 25-35kts attm, esp across NE Lower and the EUP.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025



Days 2-3 (Monday-Tuesday)...



Breezy return flow in place across the Midwest Monday...ahead of a

couple areas of troughing out west...an open wave over the central

Plains, and shortwave troughing trailing just behind it. Expect

generally mild conditions across the Great Lakes, with some rain

chances on the increase as that subtle boundary/surface troughing

from Sunday night looks to drape into the Upper Great Lakes

Monday/Monday night...ahead of that central Plains wave scooting on

into the Upper OH Valley by Tuesday morning. From here...upstream

features begin to take precedence...particularly, northern stream

shortwave trough that will dig into the Northern Plains, taking on a

negative tilt through the day Tuesday as it moves eastward into the

Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Setup favors development of a strong,

dynamic surface low in the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night into

Wednesday...with strong, cold, northerly flow overtaking the Upper

Midwest in its wake...though we here in northern Michigan should

still be on the warm side of the system till Wednesday morning.



Days 4-7 (Wednesday-Saturday)...



Dynamic upper system crosses the Upper Great Lakes, quickly winding

up and occluding a surface low, most likely near/over Lake Superior

Wednesday. Expect strong cold advection in the wake of this...with

WNW/NW flow ramping up Wednesday night (likely sustained winds 15-

25kts; gusts 30-40kts)...and we should transition from rain early to

lake effect snow by the end of the day as temps fall through the day

both at the surface and aloft...and moisture aloft wraps back in

behind the low Wednesday night. This idea persists into Thanksgiving

Day itself...with flow slowly starting to wane Thanksgiving

night/Friday morning...though accumulating lake effect snow along

with breezy and cold conditions will likely remain the norm for many

across the area. Beyond this...think lake effect snow will continue

for some, though areas of focus should change as ridging tries to

build back in toward the weekend...ahead of another strong system

looking to develop over the Southern Plains.



Expecting travel impacts both for road travel and airline travel,

particularly late Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day and perhaps

into Friday, given potential for blowing/drifting snow and lowered

visibilities (both inside the most intense bands as well as outside

of bands). Additionally...since we will have a prolonged period of

rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...followed by falling

temperatures, strong winds to continually remove heat from surfaces,

and snowfall rates that should allow for accumulations by late

afternoon/evening...think there could be impacts to how well roads

can be treated/pre-treated during the early stages of this event.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1049 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025



VFR to prevail at TVC and MBL, while conditions hover around

marginal MVFR conditions at the rest of the TAF sites. Rain

showers (possibly mixed with snow at CIU) possible through

tonight, eventually confining to CIU by Sunday morning. Showers

at CIU taper Sunday afternoon, with VFR conditions prevailing

across the board in the afternoon into the evening. Winds set to

flip NW tonight, becoming rather gusty (some 25 to 30kt gusts

likely) in the morning, tapering closer to sunset.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ346-

     349.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon

     for LHZ347-348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-

     341-342.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for

     LMZ344>346.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...FEF

LONG TERM...FEF

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

307

ACUS11 KWNS 220535

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 220534

KYZ000-TNZ000-220730-



Mesoscale Discussion 2217

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025



Areas affected...Parts of southwest KY into far northern TN



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 220534Z - 220730Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are

possible late tonight.



DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving across far western KY

to near the TN state line late this evening. While instability is

modest at best (with MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg), ascent attendant to

a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the Ohio Valley may help to

sustain this cluster as it moves eastward late tonight. Midlevel

flow and deep-layer shear (as sampled by the KPAH and KHPX VWPs) are

rather strong, which could allow for convection to remain somewhat

organized as it moves eastward. Mostly unidirectional wind profiles

may continue to favor a quasi-linear mode, though a transient

embedded supercell or two (as recently noted near the KY/TN border)

cannot be ruled out.



Weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy will tend to limit the

magnitude of the severe threat. However, locally gusty/damaging

winds will be possible into the early overnight, and a brief/weak

tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell

structures, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 in place per the KHPX

VWP.



..Dean/Smith.. 11/22/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...



LAT...LON   37578760 37678645 37448545 36438564 36158607 36428854

            36878781 37578760



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH