Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

817

ACUS01 KWNS 080048

SWODY1

SPC AC 080046



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0646 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025



Valid 080100Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

A severe threat will likely continue this evening from middle

Tennessee southward into northern Mississippi, where isolated

damaging wind gusts, a tornado and hail will be possible.



...Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...

The latest water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude mid-level

trough over the mid Mississippi Valley. A plume of mid-level

moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley northeastward into the

central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within the

southwestern part of this plume from eastern Kentucky southward into

middle Tennessee. The storms are located ahead of pre-frontal

trough, along a northeast-to-southwest moist axis where surface

dewpoints range from the mid 50s in Kentucky to the lower to mid 60s

F in middle Tennessee. The RAP has a pocket of instability along

this moist axis, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the

Morristown, Tennessee WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 60 knots with 0-3

km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This will support

supercells, and potentially an isolated tornado threat early this

evening. Steep lapse rates at low-levels could also support a

wind-damage threat...see MCD 2199. The severe threat is expected to

persist for a few more hours, as the storms gradually move eastward

toward the southern Appalachians.



Further south into the central Gulf Coast states, surface dewpoints

in the lower to mid 60s F are contributing to moderate instability.

The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from north-central

Alabama southward to the central Gulf Coast. Within this corridor,

the RAP shows moderate deep-layer shear, and relatively steep

low-level lapse rates. This could be sufficient for a marginal

severe threat. A few severe gusts and hail will be the primary

threats. The threat could persist into the early overnight period.



..Broyles.. 11/08/2025



$$






                

                        

931

ACUS02 KWNS 071723

SWODY2

SPC AC 071722



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1122 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.



...Synopsis...

A large-scale trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will

persist across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS for much of the

period. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from

the North Carolina coast to northeast Texas.



...Portions of the Southeast...

Weak to moderate instability will develop south of a stalled frontal

zone across the Southeast on Saturday. Mostly neutral mid-level

height tendencies and weak convergence along the front will likely

limit overall storm coverage. In addition, relatively warm

temperatures around 700mb will limit updraft strength in an

otherwise favorable deep-layer shear environment. The stronger

upper-level forcing does not appear to arrive until after 06Z, at

which time instability will also remain limited. Therefore, a few

stronger storms capable of small hail are possible, but the overall

severe weather threat appears limited during the Day 2 period.



..Bentley.. 11/07/2025



$$






                

                        

514

NWUS53 KAPX 060309

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1009 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025



Here are the highest observed wind gusts from northern Michigan today.

Only observations of 39 mph or higher were included.



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0335 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Roscommon County  44.35N 84.67W

11/05/2025  M49 MPH          Roscommon          MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KHTL Houghton Lake - Roscommon

            County Airport.



0906 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNW Bay Mills         46.48N 84.63W

11/05/2025  M47 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station PTIM4 Point Iroquois, MI.



0405 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Sault Ste. Marie    46.47N 84.37W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KANJ Sault Ste Marie -

            Municipal Airport.



0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 46 ESE Oscoda           44.28N 82.42W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          LHZ363             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station 45008 27 NE Port Hope.



0540 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 31 E Presque Isle       45.35N 82.84W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          LHZ362             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station 45003 30 E Presque Isle.



0337 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Pellston          45.57N 84.80W

11/05/2025  M44 MPH          Emmet              MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KPLN Pellston - Rgnl Airport Of

            Emmet County.



0426 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Dafter              46.37N 84.43W

11/05/2025  M44 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC041 Dafter T26.



0737 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Leland            45.02N 85.76W

11/05/2025  M43 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XLEL Leland Harbor.



0542 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Mackinaw City           45.78N 84.73W

11/05/2025  M41 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   Buoy



            Buoy station MACM4 Mackinaw City, MI.



0740 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

11/05/2025  M41 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.



0400 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.30W

11/05/2025  M40 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station LTRM4 Little Rapids, MI.



1221 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Frankfort          44.63N 86.25W

11/05/2025  M40 MPH          LMZ346             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XFLT Frankfort Light.



0320 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE East Tawas        44.25N 83.46W

11/05/2025  M39 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XTAW Tawas Point.





&&



$$












                

                        

845

FXUS63 KAPX 072343

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

643 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Shot of Winter spreads across the area later this weekend into

early next week, bringing sharply colder weather and the potential

for accumulating lake effect snow.



- Some modification still expected as we head into the middle of

  next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Fairly deep low pressure racing east north of Lake Huron early this

afternoon, with its attendant occluded front getting set to exit

into northern Lake Huron. Primary rain band has now exited east

along with these features. However, secondary cold front tied to

primary mid level shortwave now working into the region, helping

kick off some more spotty showers and areas of drizzle/mist across

parts of northern Michigan. Still a fairly "mild" day, with current

readings in the 40s to lower 50s.



Shortwave and its attendant cold front will continue to race east,

replaced by weak surface high by later tonight into the start of the

weekend.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and addressing any light precipitation potential.



Details:



Shower and drizzle threat expected to come to an end heading through

this evening as high pressure builds into the Northwoods. These dry

conditions look to prevail through much of Saturday, with some

increasing north to northeast flow perhaps enticing a bit of a lake

response by later Saturday. Definitely nothing significant, with any

light rain and snow showers likely confined to coastal areas of

northwest lower and up by Whitefish Point in eastern upper Michigan.

Step-down process to much advertised colder weather regime kicks off

tonight and Saturday. Looking at lows tonight in the middle 20s to

lower 30s...with highs Saturday in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s.

Winds will be fairly light however, negating any real wind chill

factor.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Deep troughing develops across the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday,

with the primary driver of this troughing centered on strong

shortwave trough expected to dive straight south out of northern

Ontario later Sunday. Secondary energy racing east across the lower

Lakes/northern Ohio Valley Saturday night will only help the

amplification process. This troughing will open a direct avenue for

some rather chilly Canadian air to drop right across the region into

early next week. Still strong support for a gradual relaxation of

the upper level flow pattern heading into the middle of next week as

core of deep troughing and attendant coldest temperature anomalies

rotate off to the northeast.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and addressing potential for accumulating snow

later Saturday night into early next week.



Details:



Confidence continues to increase that primary axis of deformation

driven snows with that southern Lakes wave Saturday night will stay

mostly south of our area. However, maturing north to northeast flow

within the increasing pressure gradient will likely allow the

development of lake effect off the big waters heading through the

night. Said flow direction targets areas west of Grand Traverse Bay

for better lake potential...as well as parts of northeast lower

Michigan. Tougher call across eastern upper, with some support for

secondary surface trough/development of lake aggregate troughing to

focus brief axis of enhanced convergence into northwest Chippewa

County. Lack of better synoptic moisture contribution/forcing should

throttle back some on lake effect organization and intensity. Still,

wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see a few inches fall in parts of

Leelanau and Benzie Counties...as well as across far northwest

Chippewa County. Airmass cutting across northern Lake Huron is

noticeably drier...likely further negating snow accumulation

potential in northeast lower Michigan. While don`t foresee specific

headline criteria amounts, this being the first accumulating snow of

the season does complicate matters some. Definitely something to

continue to monitor.



Pattern recognition with expected trough placement now strongly

supports this remaining a primarily north flow event Sunday into

Monday. Coldest air yet this season (H8 temperatures fall into the

negative lower teens) will no doubt entice a vigorous lake response,

further supported by guidance derived soundings showing convective

cloud depths up to and over 10kft and lift centered through the

dendritic growth layer. Exact wind direction becomes utmost

important of course...and with that now anticipated more northerly

flow component, the target area really centers on areas near and

southwest of Grand Traverse Bay. Latest statistical probabilities

show values up and over 75 percent for at least 4 inches of snow by

Monday evening...with the greatest likelihood centered on the

highlands of Leelanau and Benzie Counties. Eastern upper looks to

remain largely out of the equation Sunday and Monday with most

organized Lake Superior snows remaining to their west. Of course,

areas of more focused convergence axes to drive most intense lake

response are yet to be determined, but the potential for this to be

a higher impact event for those areas along and near the Leelanau

Peninsula is definitely still on the table. Otherwise, far bigger

story for a vast majority of the area will be the much colder

temperatures...with highs both Sunday and Monday remaining in the

30s...with lows Sunday night likely in the teens away from the big

waters. Gusty winds will only make it feel colder.



Main axis of trough and coldest temperatures expected to rotate out

of the region heading into the middle of next week. Still looking at

broad troughing aloft...supporting weak passing shortwaves and at

least some lake effect potential. Temperatures will slowly

moderate...with highs both Wednesday and Thursday likely reaching

into the 40s. We shall see.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 638 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025



Mostly MVFR with a few VFR cigs are over the terminals

currently. NW winds of 10 to 15kts with frequent G20 to 25kts at

most terminals will continue through 4Z. Non zero chances for

brief ISO SN near KCIU from 02Z thru 06Z, however didn`t have

high enough confidence to put in TAF. Winds will weaken by 05Z

for most terminals. MVFR cigs will scatter in a few spots,

becoming FEW-SCT at 2-3kft after 06Z. Light NNW/W winds after

12Z for most terminals.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...MSB

AVIATION...ELD






                

                        

651

ACUS11 KWNS 080010

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 080009

KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-080215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2199

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0609 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025



Areas affected...Parts of Middle TN...south-central KY...far

northern AL



Concerning...Tornado Watch 635...



Valid 080009Z - 080215Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 635 continues.



SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will propagate

across the northern half of ww635 over the next several hours, with

more isolated activity expected across southern portions of the

watch.



DISCUSSION...Southern influence of Mid-MS Valley short-wave trough

appears to be affecting convection across the middle TN Valley early

this evening. Water-vapor imagery suggests the back edge of

large-scale support is advancing steadily east and will encourage

ongoing convection to spread across the remainder of ww635,

especially the northern half, over the next several hours. Latest

radar data suggests a few supercells are embedded along a pre

frontal corridor of convection, but this activity will be

approaching a less unstable air mass toward the eastern portions of

the watch. MRMS MESH cores support this weaker buoyancy with most

updrafts likely generating hail at, or below severe levels. Given

the shear, damaging winds remain possible, along with some risk for

an isolated tornado.



..Darrow.. 11/08/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...



LAT...LON   34728839 36748702 36748395 34738541 34728839



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN