956

ACUS01 KWNS 051905

SWODY1

SPC AC 051903



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025



Valid 052000Z - 061200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across

the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies.



Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border

for later this afternoon and evening.  A strong shortwave trough and

associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into

the region.  This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while

forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE.  This

may result in a few lightning flashes.



No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered

thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and

evening.



..Hart.. 12/05/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/



...Synopsis...

A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through

tonight.  Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a

trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the

Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region.  Visible-satellite

imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from

the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL

Panhandle and far southern GA.  Occasional weak elevated

thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary

from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA.  A small area for a

stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big

Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the

front.  However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing

for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm

activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some

diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to

upper flow.



$$






                

                        

463

ACUS02 KWNS 051652

SWODY2

SPC AC 051650



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.



...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move

quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move

offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a

midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move

southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS

Valley.



Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential

across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly

isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the

FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday

night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the

central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is

expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where

thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy

are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.



..Dean.. 12/05/2025



$$






                

                        

689

NWUS53 KAPX 050429

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1129 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1040 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Naubinway           46.09N 85.45W

12/04/2025  M40 MPH          Mackinac           MI   Public



            Naubinway Marina.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

813

FXUS63 KAPX 051900

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

200 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Southwest flow lake effect snow showers this afternoon transition

  to more widespread snow tonight, especially across parts of

  northwest lower and the eastern U.P.



- Additional chances for snow this weekend into early next week.



- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.



- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle

  of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level troughing draped across the

eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with the trough axis

running from Hudson Bay south-southwestward into the Four Corners

region/Baja California. This axis shifts eastward through the short

term forecast period with several embedded shortwave perturbations

expected to bring continued/additional snow chances to parts of

northern MI through the upcoming weekend.



Forecast Details: Light southwest flow lake effect snow showers

(occasionally mixed with a bit of freezing drizzle) this afternoon

continue to focus across sections of northwest lower. Eyes upstream

focus on a mid-level shortwave and attendant surface trough/cold

front currently swinging through MN/western WI. This wave progged to

arrive locally late this afternoon/evening providing renewed

synoptic support/moisture for more numerous/widespread and locally

heavier snow showers. Winds remain southwesterly through tonight

with the highest impact expected near and west of M-37 in far

northwest lower MI and parts of Emmet County. General accums in

these areas of 2-4" (locally higher in Emmet Co.) with 1-3" across

the remainder of far northwest lower into parts of Chip/Mack

counties. Most widespread snow exists late tonight/early Saturday

morning with winds turning northwesterly behind the passing sfc

trough/cold front.



Tough call on potential headlines late afternoon through tonight

given forecast snow accumulations generally right around 2-4 inches

across much of Manistee to Leelanau and Emmet counties (locally

higher in Emmet). Given southwest winds remain breezy through this

time frame with gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to further reduce

visibility in patchy blowing snow, that tipped the scales toward a

Winter Weather Advisory through 10z Saturday for the counties listed

above. Lesser forecast snow accum on the order of 1-3" across

remaining northwest lower Lake Michigan collar counties and southern

Chip/Mack tipped the scales in the other direction.



At least some northwest flow scattered lake effect snow showers

likely to continue Saturday across parts of eastern upper and

northwest lower, although not much in the way of accumulation

expected given a loss of synoptic moisture above a sub-5kft (and

shrinking) inversion. Could even have a bit of patchy freezing

drizzle mix in at times with cloud top temperatures flirting with

being a touch warmer than -10C.  Most likely spot for an additional

inch or two of accumulation through the day Saturday would be across

far northern Chippewa County from Paradise to the Soo.



By Saturday evening, next embedded shortwave expected to be upstream

with its sights set on the local area for Saturday night/Sunday

morning. While the heaviest snow is favored for areas to our south,

at least widespread light snow (with possible lake enhancement) is

expected across much of northern lower MI. Current trends favor 1-3"

from the tip of the mitt and south during this time frame, but

expect some refinement over the coming 36-48 hours.



Any way you slice it, continued active wintry weather with periods

of hazardous travel likely this weekend.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 158 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025



Pattern Forecast: ~1032mb surface high pressure is expected to be

sliding overhead Sunday evening through Monday morning setting the

stage for a very cold night Sunday night. Otherwise, an active

winter pattern continues across the Great Lakes next week with

several snow chances as early as Monday night/Tuesday, and again

Tuesday night - Wednesday with the latter of these two carrying

higher potential for more widespread impacts.



Day 3-4 (Sun. night through Monday): Cold Sunday night/Monday

morning with low temps likely falling below zero across interior

areas. Highest probabilities for sub-zero readings lie from Cadillac

to Gladwin northward to Gaylord and from Trout Lake to Kinross to

the Soo. "Warmer" near the big lakes -- generally in the single

digits above zero. Perhaps low teens at the immediate shorelines.



Day 5-7 (Mon. night - Thursday): Another active stretch of wintry

weather looks to be on tap for much of next week with snow chances

returning as early as Monday night into Tuesday. Quite a bit of

uncertainty with for this time frame with respect to how widespread

snow is, but certainly some accum. expected across at least parts of

the Northwoods.



Second, more potent and moisture-rich, wave set to trek across the

northern tier of the nation`s midsection during the late Tuesday -

Wednesday time frame.  Long range ensemble trends still favoring

this system to have higher potential for more notable accumulation

and associated impacts.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1249 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025



Anticipating an uptick in snow coverage later this afternoon

which will bring MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities. Some

enhancement downwind of Lake Michigan in northwest flow which

may bring periodic heavier bursts of snow/LIFT conditions to at

least KPLN. Synoptic snow will taper off after midnight with a

cold frontal passage bringing in another shot of cold air and

the potential for lake convection Saturday. As synoptic snow

ends but low level moisture lingers will need to watch the

potential for some freezing drizzle to develop after 09Z.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST

     Saturday for MIZ020-025-031.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ322.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...JPB






                

                        

867

ACUS11 KWNS 030113

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 030112

MEZ000-NHZ000-030715-



Mesoscale Discussion 2249

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0712 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025



Areas affected...coastal northern New England



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 030112Z - 030715Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1+

inches per hour are possible across southern Maine this evening,

with heaviest rates most probable near Down East coastal areas

closer to and after Midnight EST, as strengthening and gusty winds

contribute to reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting.



DISCUSSION...A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to continue an

east-northeastward migration, generally south through east of the

Cape Cod vicinity through mid to late evening.  This will be

accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric

frontogenetic forcing to its north through northeast.  At

mid-levels, the Rapid Refresh indicates that this will shift across

southern Maine through southern New Brunswick, where forecast

soundings indicate that  strengthening lift in (roughly) the 600-500

mb layer may coincide with temperatures most conducive to large

dendritic ice crystal growth (around -15 C).



There is notable spread within and among the various model output

concerning these details, and potentially varying rates of cyclone

and upward vertical motion intensification.  However, in the

presence of sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles, guidance generally

indicates snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour are

possible this evening across much of southern Maine.  Heaviest rates

appear most probable near immediate coastal areas of Maine,

particularly across Down East coastal Maine closer to and after

05-06Z, when strengthening and gusty east-northeasterly surface

winds may contribute to considerable blowing/drifting and reduced

visibilities.



..Kerr.. 12/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...



LAT...LON   43277133 44757076 45456714 44046610 43626951 43127081

            43277133