Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

721

ACUS01 KWNS 071249

SWODY1

SPC AC 071247



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0647 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026



Valid 071300Z - 081200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.



...Desert Southwest...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low and

an associated trough to the west of Baja Calfornia.  This

disturbance will meander slowly southeast reaching the Baja

California/Gulf of California vicinity by the end of the period.

Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (near -18 deg C at 500 mb)

and sufficient moisture will yield weak buoyancy later today across

southern AZ.  Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast

mainly for southeast AZ where weak ascent may yield a couple of

lightning flashes with deeper convection.  Elsewhere across the

contiguous United States, quiescent conditions will prevail

precluding thunderstorms.



..Smith/Moore.. 02/07/2026



$$






                

                        

015

ACUS02 KWNS 070533

SWODY2

SPC AC 070532



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1132 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.



...AZ...



Forecast guidance has trended further south with a closed upper low

and attendant shortwave trough moving over northwest Mexico on

Sunday. As a result, forecast thermodynamic profiles show a somewhat

drier profile, especially in the midlevels. While cooling aloft will

support steepening midlevel lapse rates and development of minor

elevated instability, thunderstorm potential appears to be somewhat

lower compared to this time yesterday. Will maintain the 10 percent

general thunderstorm area across southeast AZ for now, but this may

be removed in subsequent outlooks if current trends are maintained.



Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm

activity.



..Leitman.. 02/07/2026



$$






                

                        

947

NWUS53 KAPX 070009

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

709 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0453 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Au Sable          44.41N 83.32W

02/06/2026  M40 MPH          LHZ349             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XOSC Oscoda Light.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

429

FXUS63 KAPX 070703

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

203 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lake effect snow showers linger today, though impacts continue to

  wane.



- Cold but rising above cold weather advisory through the day today.



- Couple more wintry chances early to mid next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Elongated upper low and trough situated across James Bay down

through Ontario and US NE to start the period today. This feature

moves like lava in a lava lamp oozing across the US NE before

repositioning near the 40N/70W benchmark off the coast of NJ/NY/LI.

Closer to home, we remain in persistent cold, modestly stiff,

northwest flow in wake of this energy. Little bit of over lake

instability remains downwind of the big lake (Michigan) for pockets

of lake effect snow showers mainly near GTB vicinity, most

persistent earlier in the day. Outside of brief pockets of lowered

vsbys this morning, and an additional inch or two or snow, not a big

concern through the day today in regards to winter weather. Sfc high

pressure builds across Ontario tonight just to our northeast across

the Canadian shield I think they call it, aiding in a cold night

across much of the area. Subtle impulse/warm advection aloft within

the northwest flow aloft may result in a few snow showers very late

and into early Sunday.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Cold Wind Chills/Wintry Weather:



Lingering very cold wind chills will continue through the morning

hours today, but it will still feel quite cold through much of the

day today with highs in the teens and a stiff northwest wind.

Nevertheless, not expecting dangerous cold/cold weather advisory

criteria to be eclipsed after mid morning.



Lake effect snow showers will linger through the day today, esp GTB

vicinity, but the spatial coverage and intensity should not be all

that concerning, especially as the day goes on. Will still be an

area of modest snow showers near GTB during the predawn/morning

hours but planning to let the advisory expire at 12Z/7AM with

perhaps an additional inch or so of snow accum thereafter.



Weak impulse within the northwest flow aloft along with warm

advection and a corridor of modest moisture will overcome the

general rising heights aloft and result in a region of light to very

light snow. Latest guidance shows the best potential for this

generally to our southwest, but a few snow showers may leak into far

southwest portions of the region, Traverse, Cadillac, and west. Not

expecting a huge deal out of this.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026



Another system to our north will swipe the northern portion of our

area with snow early next week. At this time looks like the best

chance for precipitation will be the farther north you go,

particularly the E UP. However, some indication that a wintry mix

could be possible with this feature. Snowfall amounts do not look

concerning, but any mixed precip would pose a more delicate issue.



An additional shot of precip is possible Tuesday into mid week with

uncertainty on the exact depth and interaction of a couple of pieces

of energy across the Upper Midwest vicinity. Current ENS show a low

probability (~10-30%) for 3" or more across the E UP, which seems

reasonable given the latest guidance. Another one of those systems

where the main upper low and forcing will be north and so the

farther north you are the better, but something to watch moving

forward. Otherwise, high temps will largely be in the 20s and 30s

much of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 629 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026



Lake effect snow and BLSN continues this evening, before winds

slowly subside later tonight. IFR at times tonight CIU/TVC, and

perhaps MBL/APN. Otherwise a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions

overnight and Saturday, with VFR becoming more common as the day

proceeds.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for

     MIZ016>018-021>024-026>030-032>036-041-042-086>088-

     095>097-099.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ020-

     025-026-031-032-095.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

788

ACUS11 KWNS 070236

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 070236

PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-070630-



Mesoscale Discussion 0070

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0836 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026



Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia and adjacent

portions of western Maryland/Pennsylvania



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 070236Z - 070630Z



SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow (at rates occasionally

up to 1+ inches per hour) and strengthening surface gusts to 30-40+

kt may develop by Midnight to 1 AM EST, accompanied by considerable

blowing and drifting of snow and occasionally sharply reduced

visibilities.



DISCUSSION...Mostly light to moderate snow overspreading the upper

Ohio Valley toward the western Allegheny Plateau is being supported

by forcing for ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave trough of

Arctic origins, which is forecast to continue digging across and

south-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late this evening.

This is accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which Rapid Refresh

indicates will begin overspreading the western slopes of the

Alleghenies during the 04-07Z time frame.



As this occurs, low-level flow is likely to veer to an increasing

northwesterly upslope component across the higher terrain,

contributing to strengthening upward vertical motion.  Forecast

soundings indicate that this lift, coupled with low-level cold

advection, will contribute to saturating profiles with steepening

lapse rates.  It appears that this may become supportive of the

development of very weak CAPE through a layer between 850-700 mb, as

temperatures within this layer cool to around and below -15 C.



Despite rather low precipitable water content falling below .20

inches, and the low residence height (higher pressure) of the

dendritic growth zone, the strong orographically enhanced low-level

lift and convective component may compensate, and support a period

of moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates on the order of .5-1+

inches per hour.  This is also likely to coincide with downward

mixing of strengthening low-level wind fields which may support

30-40 kt surface gusts, contributing to considerable drifting and

occasional sharply reduced visibilities.



..Kerr.. 02/07/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...



LAT...LON   40027941 39447926 38717968 38158040 38448069 38578056

            39128016 39627996 40027941