342

ACUS01 KWNS 092036

SWODY1

SPC AC 092034



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0234 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Valid 092000Z - 101200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.



No changes.



..Hart.. 12/09/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025/



...Synopsis and Discussion...

Upper pattern will remain active today/tonight as a low-amplitude

shortwave trough progresses quickly eastward through the OH Valley

ahead of a more substantial shortwave trough moving southeastward

out of the Canadian Prairies and through the northern Plains and

Upper Midwest. By 12Z Wednesday, this second shortwave will likely

extend from the Lake Michigan vicinity southwestward into northeast

KS/northwest MO.



Progression of this second shortwave will reinforce the already dry

and stable airmass in place across much of CONUS, precluding

thunderstorms. Some modest moisture return is anticipated late

tonight/early tomorrow across the western Gulf, but much of this

moisture will remain offshore. Some low-level moisture also remains

in place across south FL, even in the wake of the cold front now

settled across the Florida Straits. Even with this low-level

moisture still in place, modest and shallow buoyancy, and limited

forcing for ascent should preclude thunderstorms across south FL

today.



$$






                

                        

639

ACUS02 KWNS 091648

SWODY2

SPC AC 091646



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.



...Synopsis...

Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast

on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be

suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in

negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy

may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with

generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep

convection is expected to remain offshore.



..Dean.. 12/09/2025



$$






                

                        

083

NWUS53 KAPX 092027

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

327 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0325 PM     Snow             Lake Ann                44.73N 85.84W

12/09/2025  M3.5 Inch        Benzie             MI   Broadcast Media



            Snow total from early this morning through

            early afternoon.





&&



$$












                

                        

158

FXUS63 KAPX 091840

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

140 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday.

  Lake effect snow likely in its wake late Wednesday through

  Thursday.



- Another clipper Friday with additional lake effect snow

  chances through the weekend, along with cold temperatures.&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains over the

eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough

crossed northern MI this morning, now situated just downstream.

Focus quickly shifts upstream to a wave dropping into the Dakotas.

Attendant surface low following suit. This system waves southeast to

southern WI by 06z tonight and into southern Ontario by mid-

Wednesday morning. Colder air gets pulled in on the heels of renewed

northwest winds on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon/

evening.



Forecast Details: Most widespread snow associated with this

morning`s clipper now off to our east, but a mix of lighter snow

showers and freezing drizzle linger across parts of northern MI.

Additional snow accumulation through the early evening likely under

a half inch with a coating to 0.05" of ice where freezing drizzle

falls/mixes in.



By mid-late evening, next round of snow expected to be spreading

into northwest lower, continuing to progress east/southeast through

the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Somewhat better

agreement coming into line with this morning`s suite of global and

hi-res guidance with the swath of heaviest snow likely falling

across parts of central and southern MI. Should be a pretty

impressive embedded FGEN band that sets up across part of this area,

but again, highest probabilities for this lie to our south.  That

said, still some impactful snow accum. expected across southern

parts of APX`s footprint -- namely south M-32 and to a further

extent, south of M-72. Expecting a fairly sharp cut off on the

northern edge of the snow shield. This is the least confident part

of the forecast at this time with exactly where that northern edge

cut off is, but current trends support accums tapering quickly as

you head near and north of M-32. No changes planned to the inherited

winter weather advisories -- those advised areas still forecast to

receive 2-5". A more general 1-2" toward the M-32 corridor. Largely

an inch or less north of there.



Widespread snow expected to be exiting through Wednesday morning,

clearing far southern areas near Saginaw Bay towards midday. Renewed

northwest winds on the backside of this system, gusty as times up to

25-30 mph. This will bring a return of lake effect snow showers

to the typically favored snow belts of eastern upper and northwest

lower afternoon, and more so Wednesday evening/night.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Wednesday night - Thursday night:  Northwest / west-northwest winds

expected to prevail Wednesday night through Thursday with lake

effect snow showers being the rule, favoring the typical snow belts

of northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Eye-popping snow amounts

may be hard to come by, however, as latest trends point toward

little in the way of synoptic help above a gradually shrinking

inversion below 5-6 kft. None the less, it`ll remain wintry in the

snowbelts with some localized advisory-level snow amounts not out of

the question. Thursday evening/night, low-level winds expected to

gradually back more west or west-southwesterly, likely pushing what

lingering lake effect snow showers remain toward the tip of the

mitt.



Friday into the weekend:  Another wave set to cross the northern

tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core

of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend.

H8 temps progged as low as around -21C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range

ENS trends continue to favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged

lake effect/enhanced event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with

highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much

of northern MI through this time frame. Given such cold

temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited,

resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an

extent, but also yield lower visibilities.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Accumulating snow continues to move across northern Michigan

the next couple hours with MVFR/IFR VSBYs expected as snow moves

over terminals. A brief lull in precipitation is expected this

afternoon, potentially improving and/or holding conditions at

MVFR with low VFR on the table by late this evening, especially

APN. However, most sites look to hold MVFR CIGs for most of the

issuance period as another round of widespread accumulating snow

moves in tonight and Wednesday. An additional several inches of

snow is expected across much of northern lower Michigan,

including TVC and MBL. Otherwise, gusty south winds will

continue to gradually turn west and weaken this evening, then

strengthen Wednesday with occasional gusts 20-25 knots possible

across all terminals.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST

     Wednesday for MIZ020-025>036-041-042.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for

     LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for

     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...NSC






                

                        

868

ACUS11 KWNS 091757

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 091756

MNZ000-NDZ000-092300-



Mesoscale Discussion 2255

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1156 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Areas affected...portions of northern into central Minnesota



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 091756Z - 092300Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to begin over the next

few hours. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible.



DISCUSSION...A surface-850 mb low is beginning to intensify while

shifting southeastward across ND, which is resulting in increased

low-level warm-air/moisture advection within a sub-freezing

troposphere over northern to central MN. A primary band of at least

light to moderate snow is already in place along the ND/MN border,

and this band is expected to intensify with increased 850-700 mb

frontogenesis over central MN over the next several hours. Increased

saturation of the dendritic growth zone should support widespread

moderate snowfall rates, but at least a few instances of heavy snow

are possible, including snowfall rates locally exceeding 1

inch/hour.



..Squitieri.. 12/09/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...



LAT...LON   47919705 48009693 48069675 48079663 48049635 47949602

            47629508 47199421 46929378 46239305 45759294 45389305

            45229348 45199421 45259516 45429561 45799613 47029686

            47419699 47719709 47919705