Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

901

ACUS01 KWNS 221224

SWODY1

SPC AC 221222



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0622 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025



Valid 221300Z - 231200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today

through tonight.



An expansive and cold upper trough remains in place across the

contiguous United States today, with dry and stable conditions

precluding thunderstorms.



..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2025



$$






                

                        

298

ACUS02 KWNS 220548

SWODY2

SPC AC 220547



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1147 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.



...Synopsis...

A cool and stable pattern will persist on Thursday across the CONUS,

with a sprawling area of high pressure stretching from the Great

Basin to the East Coast. An elongated, positive-tilt upper trough

will extend from Quebec southwestward across the Great Lakes and

into the southern High Plains by 00Z, and will move toward the MS

Valley into Friday morning.



Given high pressure at the surface, and generally dry westerly flow

above the stable surface layer over the Southeast, thunderstorms

remain unlikely.



..Jewell.. 01/22/2025



$$






                

                        

074

NWUS53 KAPX 210436

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1136 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0430 PM     Snow             2 NNW East Jordan       45.19N 85.15W

01/20/2025  M7.7 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station EJNM4 East Jordan 2

            NW.





&&



$$












                

                        

310

FXUS63 KAPX 221151

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

651 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Accumulating snow and strong winds expected across northwest

  lower and eastern upper today into tonight. Highest totals of

  4-7" across these areas with locally higher amounts possible,

  and wind gusts to 25-40 mph.



- Moderating temperatures into early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 440 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Troughing will lift from the lower Great Lakes over the St. Lawrence

Seaway this morning as height rises overspread the region. This will

be temporary, however, as troughing digs across the Upper Midwest

and overhead this evening and tonight. Favorable forcing aloft will

support a relatively weak cyclone that will trek across the Great

Lakes during that time, swinging an attendant cold front across the

area late tonight into Thursday morning.



Forecast Details:



Tricky snowfall forecast in store for northwest lower and eastern

upper Michigan today and tonight. An enhanced band of snowfall has

already materialized over northern Lake Michigan, just scraping the

coast of Manistee/Benzie counties and extending across Beaver Island

into Mackinac/Chippewa counties. Guidance has struggled so far

tonight in handling this band -- specifically, land breeze formation

has largely kept this band offshore/further west than originally

anticipated. This brings concerns as to when steadier snowfall

underneath this band will work back over portions northwest lower

and where exactly it will focus across the eastern U.P. Current

confidence is that warming temperatures and a tightening pressure

gradient will begin to force this band back a little further east

and focus over portions of Manistee, Benzie, and Leelanau counties

later this morning.



Heaviest snowfall and worst conditions are anticipated in the mid-

morning through early afternoon timeframe where snowfall rates

around 1" per hour will be possible underneath the aforementioned

band. Additional snowfall of 4-7" is anticipated across areas

included in the Winter Storm Warning with locally higher amounts

possible -- especially across portions of Mackinac and Chippewa

counties where higher confidence in longer-duration snowfall lies.

Wind gusts of 25-40 mph at times through the afternoon will

contribute to rapid drops in visibility -- and potentially even

whiteout conditions at times. This band will eventually work its way

east this evening into tonight as the front works into the area,

switching winds from south-southwest to northwest. Bitter cold wind

chills as low as -25F will continue this morning before finally

warming some this afternoon into tonight.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 440 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025



Things continue to look up in the temperature department over the

coming days. Temperatures are still expected to slowly moderate with

above normal (and in some cases possibly even above freezing)

readings next week. In the meantime, still fairly chilly conditions

over the next few days but noticeably less extreme cold for sure. It

will still be cold enough for occasional lake effect, although

nothing too major in the long term is foreseen at this juncture.



Northwest flow lake effect snow showers are expected on Thursday

which should slowly diminish Thursday night as drier air moves in.

Could see an inch or two of accumulation in favored areas. Little

sensible weather expected Friday. Winds then shift into the

southwest once again Friday night as a short wave approaches which

should give lake effect a boost near the Lake Michigan shorelines

where a few inches of accumulation are possible. Southwest winds

will become gusty so patchy blowing and drifting snow is likely. Low

end headlines may even be needed (advisories). Winds then veer more

westerly Saturday which should spread snow showers farther inland

with accumulations generally an inch or less. Not a whole lot going

on Sunday into early next week with only a few light snow showers or

flurries around.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 650 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025



Mainly MVFR CIGs are anticipated across northwest lower and eastern

upper Michigan through the issuance period. An enhanced band of snow

is currently over northern Lake Michigan, and is expected to move

east onto land later this morning and afternoon. This band will

likely bring significant drops in VSBYs at times -- including

potential LIFR conditions at MBL. Drops to MVFR/IFR VSBYS are

anticipated at TVC, PLN, and CIU later today and tonight. Otherwise,

south winds of 10-15 kts will gust to 25-35 kts at times through

this afternoon, eventually turning to northwest winds late in the

period as a front swings from west to east across the area.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MIZ016>018-

     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-

     031.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086-

     095-096-098.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.

     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-

     344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-

     322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DJC

LONG TERM...AJS

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

503

ACUS11 KWNS 220453

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 220452

SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-220745-



Mesoscale Discussion 0054

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1052 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025



Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia into northern Florida



Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation



Valid 220452Z - 220745Z



SUMMARY...A wintry mix should continue into the early morning hours,

with instances of moderate snow, sleet, and perhaps freezing rain

expected.



DISCUSSION...A belt of strong 700 mb warm-air and moisture advection

is overspreading southern GA into northern FL in response to a

rapidly approaching mid-level trough. While RAP forecast soundings

suggest that much of the vertical profile below 600 mb may be above

freezing at several locales, 04Z mesoanalysis shows strong

surface-850 mb CAA impinging on the GA/FL border, where MRMS mosaic

radar data shows bright banding taking place, and where surface

observations indicate snow, sleet, and freezing rain becoming the

predominant precipitation modes. Continued CAA should result in

wintry mixed precipitation overspreading the rest of far northern FL

and continuing into the early morning hours, in agreement with the

latest high-resolution guidance consensus.



..Squitieri.. 01/22/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...



LAT...LON   30098570 31238420 32128278 32368214 32338142 32108105

            31578124 30628151 30258180 29858245 29578288 29478315

            29518334 29828369 30018395 29908428 29718461 29608484

            29588509 29668539 30098570