Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

675

ACUS01 KWNS 241202

SWODY1

SPC AC 241200



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0700 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026



Valid 241300Z - 251200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of

north/central Florida and late tonight over portions of coastal

Washington, but organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

Surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS

today, with low-level moisture sufficient to support thunderstorms

confined to parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a front.

Large-scale ascent will remain weak across this region through the

afternoon, with multiple small-scale perturbations embedded within

mean upper troughing across the eastern states remaining displaced

to the north of FL. Even so, isolated thunderstorms may develop this

afternoon across parts of north/central FL, with some preference for

initiation along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Weak low/mid-level

flow and related modest deep-layer shear are expected to limit the

threat for organized severe convection. Isolated thunderstorms may

also occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of

coastal WA as strong forcing and cool temperatures aloft associated

with a mid/upper-level jet overspread this region.



..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/24/2026



$$






                

                        

735

ACUS02 KWNS 240552

SWODY2

SPC AC 240550



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026



Valid 251200Z - 261200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.



...Synopsis...

A stout upper-level ridge will gradually shift east towards the

southern Rockies through Wednesday. Broad-scale subsidence ahead of

the ridge will help maintain dry conditions for most areas of the

country. However, a few regions will see at least isolated

thunderstorm chances. Deep convection appears most probable across

portions of central Florida Wednesday afternoon where weak low-level

convergence within a stalled frontal zone (aided by localized lift

along sea-breeze boundaries) will support a few thunderstorms. This

activity should remain sub-severe due to weak winds through much of

the profile. A weak upper disturbance propagating into the

Midwest/OH Valley overnight will likely support isolated

thunderstorms after 00z as lift overspreads the northern fringe of

returning low-level moisture, though buoyancy profiles will likely

remain too meager to support robust/deep convection. Similarly, very

cold temperatures aloft associated with a low-amplitude upper wave

may support shallow convection and occasional lightning flashes

across parts of the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and

evening hours. Strong diurnal heating/mixing along the slopes of the

CO Rockies may support very isolated convection late Wednesday

afternoon. Confidence in thunder potential is low due to very

weak/nebulous forcing for ascent, but forecast soundings and

convective signals from recent CAM guidance suggests at least a 10%

chance for thunderstorms.



..Moore.. 03/24/2026



$$






                

                        

884

NWUS53 KAPX 201255

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

855 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0825 AM     Freezing Rain    Millersburg             45.33N 84.06W

03/20/2026  E0.01 Inch       Presque Isle       MI   Trained Spotter



            Coating of ice.





&&



$$












                

                        

037

FXUS63 KAPX 241037

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

637 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Quick moving clipper will bring light to moderate snow and

  gusty winds to eastern upper and parts of northern lower this

  morning. Low visibilities will be possible during this

  morning`s commute.



- Precipitation chances arrive Wednesday for parts of northern

  MI and linger through late Thursday.



- Colder temperatures and light precipitation chances for the

  end of the work week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 229 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026



Current water vapor satellite shows moisture over MN/WI moving east

towards MI this morning. A PNA pattern in the upper levels is aiding

in Pacific moisture transport, as well as a surface cyclone tracking

across Ontario CAN and the Hudson Bay this morning. This cyclone is

dragging a trailing cold front with it, which extends down towards

northern MW/WI. Light snow is being reported near the US/CAN border

in MN and over parts of the western U.P.. The surface cyclone will

continue to track eastward, brining light to moderate snow to

eastern upper and northern lower starting around sunrise. There will

be assistance from some upper jet dynamics, however the main forcing

mechanism will be an elevated boundary (around 850 - 700 mb).

Although sounding profiles depict a decent environment for moderate

snow, the window for snow will be too brief for accumulations higher

than a couple inches. With that said, times of moderate snow will be

seen during this mornings commute and could result in times of

lowered visibility and light accumulations on roads. Most of

northern MI will see snow this morning, however locations that have

the better chances of a couple inches will be north of M-32.

Lingering light snow will be possible through the afternoon hours,

however the moderate snow will have exited by midday. Southwest

winds will strengthen as snow moves in, with gusts up to 25 to 30

mph shortly after sunrise. These winds combined with times of

moderate snow results in some spots seeing visibilities down to a

mile or less. Impacts will remain confined to the morning hours as

winds will turn west this afternoon and weaken.



Starting Wednesday, a strong (~150kt) upper jet will establish over

the upper ridge in the western CONUS. A general area of surface low

pressure will form on the leeward side of the northern Rockies. At

the same time, return flow around a surface high in the SE CONUS

will aid in generating southerly winds over much of the central US.

This will spread warmer air northward towards the northern plains,

where it will meet with an existing colder CAN airmass (which

settled in behind the surface cyclone passing through today). A

baroclinic zone over much of the US/CAN border near the northern

plains will establish. Pacific moisture advecting around the upper

high and ideal jet dynamics will spread precipitation over much of

the northern plains and southern CAN Wednesday. This precip will

likely move over eastern upper and parts of northern lower Wednesday

as the pattern continues to progress (upper trough moves into the

Pac NW and shoves the upper ridge to the south with continuing the

upper jet east). The column will likely still be cold enough for

snow on Wednesday, however warm air in the lower levels will reach

most of northern MI Thursday. At this time, chances remain in favor

of precipitation being most rain with some rain/snow mix over

eastern upper Thursday. These features beginning farther north and

tracking more zonal (not as amplified of a pattern) leads to a

better set up for precipitation type remaining either rain, snow, or

a mix of each. Light freezing rain could be seen overnight as

surface temperatuers fall below freezing in eastern upper

Wednesday night, which could still result in slick roads.

However chances remain low for significant ice accumulations.



A cold front will finally push through early Friday, with light lake

effect snow possible Friday into early Saturday. Precipitation

chances linger through early next week as temperatures warm back to

near normal.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 637 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026



Quick shot of snow this morning, mainly CIU/PLN, but grazing

TVC/APN. CIU/PLN should see IFR conditions for a short time this

morning, mostly ending by 13-14Z. CIU will MVFR cigs/vsbys

linger into this afternoon. Elsewhere, conditions improve to or

remain VFR.



Sw to w winds will become breezy this morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345-

     346.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this

     afternoon for LHZ347>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-

     322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ELD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

146

ACUS11 KWNS 230304

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 230304

OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230430-



Mesoscale Discussion 0289

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1004 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Areas affected...southeast IN...northeast KY...southern OH



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...74...



Valid 230304Z - 230430Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73, 74

continues.



SUMMARY...Severe hail and strong to localized severe gusts should

diminish overnight as convection spreads east-southeast over the

central Ohio Valley. A new WW is not anticipated, but a local

extension of WW 73 may occur given scheduled expiration of 04Z.



DISCUSSION...A generally broken arc of elevated convection from

southern IN through central OH has been increasingly congealing into

a broader linear cluster. This process has yielded a reduction of

the more numerous hail cores earlier this evening. But a

longer-lived, tail-end updraft over southern IN has produced hail up

to golf ball size in the past hour. This could potentially persist

for the next couple hours as it tracks near the Louisville Metro

Area. This similar southwest portion of the convective arc has more

readily accelerated towards the slower cold front. If an organized

cluster can persist, this may merge into the front and aid in a

brief uptick in damaging wind potential across northern KY. Still,

00Z CAM guidance is highly insistent on convection diminishing

overnight given the modest buoyancy and weakening of lapse rates.



..Grams.. 03/23/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...



LAT...LON   38388656 39508517 39678427 39888324 39968254 39938216

            39728171 39218171 38768291 38328357 38048474 38048565

            38218644 38388656



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

220

WGUS83 KAPX 171837

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

237 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in

Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



MIC011-171945-

/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260317T1837Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.260316T1615Z.260317T0600Z.260317T1351Z.NO/

237 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...



The Flood Warning is cancelled for

  the Rifle River near Sterling.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 2:30 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 5.6 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise to 5.8 feet this evening. It

    will then fall to 3.9 feet early Friday morning. It will rise

    to 4.9 feet Monday morning. It will then fall again and

    remain below flood stage.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



MSB