547

ACUS01 KWNS 300046

SWODY1

SPC AC 300045



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0645 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025



Valid 300100Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of

east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight.



...Southeast TX and western LA...

Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Plains lifting

into the Midwest and western Great Lakes this evening. Ascent

attendant to the trough was passing over parts of southeast TX and

western LA. A surface low over KS will continue to deepen as it

lifts northward into the Midwest this evening. Southerly low-level

flow along the TX coast will continue transporting a partially

modified Gulf air mass northward ahead of a strong cold front

trailing the low. This front will surge south, gradually shrinking

the already confined warm sector over the southeastern TX Coastal

Plain tonight.



Within the shrinking warm sector, scattered showers and a few weak

thunderstorms may slowly intensify with continued low-level warm

advection over east/southeast TX and far western LA. Around 1000

J/kg of MLCAPE will support occasional stronger updrafts despite

only modest mid-level lapse rates and nebulous ascent. Veering

low-level hodographs could support weak updraft rotation with the

strongest cells. A brief tornado, marginal hail and occasional

strong gusts are possible, especially near a diffuse warm front

across east TX and far western LA. These storms will persist tonight

and eventually merge with the cold front moving south.



Isolated thunderstorms along the front over north TX should continue

to increase in coverage as the front surges south into more robust

surface moisture. Current guidance shows these storms eventually

merging with the warm sector convection and moving offshore between

10-12z Sunday. While surface temperatures should gradually cool this

evening, sufficient moisture and weak buoyancy will maintain a risk

for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail with the stronger cores.

This appears most likely near the coast where the front will be less

likely to undercut ongoing convection. The severe risk will quickly

decrease into early Sunday as the front and remaining warm sector

are pushed offshore.



..Lyons.. 11/30/2025



$$






                

                        

078

ACUS02 KWNS 291646

SWODY2

SPC AC 291645



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1045 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025



Valid 301200Z - 011200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe

thunderstorms are not expected.



...Gulf Coast vicinity...



Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday, with

one embedded shortwave traversing the Midwest to Northeast, while a

second shortwave deepens as it moves from the Northwest into the

Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains

early in the day and overspread much of the country by early Monday.



Early Sunday on the southern/eastern periphery of the surface high,

a cold front will extend from VA/NC southwestward across the Deep

South and northwest Gulf into South Texas. The front will progress

south and east through the period, eventually moving offshore the

Gulf and Atlantic coasts and into central FL. Modest instability is

expected to develop mainly offshore over the Gulf and perhaps the FL

Peninsula ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may

develop near the coast within a band of moist/warm advection aided

by modest midlevel southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone.

Severe storms are not expected.



..Leitman.. 11/29/2025



$$






                

                        

510

NWUS53 KAPX 291623

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1123 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0700 AM     Snow             Lovells                 44.80N 84.46W

11/29/2025  M3.0 Inch        Crawford           MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-CF-9 Grayling 15.8 NE.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

996

FXUS63 KAPX 292333

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

633 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread accumulating snow tonight into early Sunday



- A period of lake effect snow and gusty winds later Sunday and

  Sunday night.



- Lake enhanced snow possible in southwest flow areas Monday

  night into Tuesday



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



A vertically stacked low pressure area will move across

central/southern Michigan over the next 24 hours.  Warm conveyor

belt processes with rapidly increasing isentropic ascent on the

north side of the low pressure area will produce widespread snow

across northern Michigan.  Although initially fighting some mid

level dry air, we should saturate later this afternoon and evening

as snow develops from southwest to northeast across the area. The

best forcing for most areas occurs from mid evening through the

overnight hours, diminishing late tonight into Sunday morning.   The

exception to this is along the Lake Huron coast from Alpena

northward toward De Tour Village/Drummond Island, where increasing

deep layer southeast flow and favorable H10-H8 low level convergence

signals will enhance snowfall rates/amounts into Sunday morning.  I

have some concern whether we can achieve warning level snow amounts

along the entire Lake Huron coast given the location of the most

focused low level forcing. Overall, the current forecast has

the storm evolution handled well and plan only some minor

wording changes related to snow onset timing within our current

headlines.



Deep synoptic moisture/forcing exit to the east by Sunday afternoon

as we transition to lake effect snow. As the previous AFD mentioned,

this lake effect event won`t carry the same potential as what we

just had through Thanksgiving, with a relatively short window of

favorable parameters and shifting low level winds.  That window

appears to be from Sunday afternoon into the first part of Sunday

night, with inversion heights of 6-8k and moisture extending briefly

through the DGZ. In addition, winds will be gusty on the backside of

our departing low during this time, so any snow shower activity

could blow around more with lower visibilities. A few inches of

accumulation will be possible during this time in the NNW-WNW

favored lake effect areas.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 156 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



The low level flow continues to back on Monday, with southwest

winds and rather anemic moisture profiles, so only light lake

effect expected. A weak northern stream wave will slide across

Lake Superior during the afternoon, possibly bringing some

lighter snows to parts of eastern upper - but only minor

accumulations.



Deepening southwest flow and better moisture Monday night into

Tuesday in response to a wave sliding by to our south, which may

produce more accumulating lake enhanced snow, especially along

the Lake Michigan coast through the Straits and parts of eastern

upper.



The active winter pattern continues midweek as yet another northern

stream wave brings snow back to the area, with lake effect snow

potential for the end of the week. Temperatures remaining below

normal throughout the week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 633 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025



Worsening conditions this evening. -SN continues to overspread

the region, and all sites will become IFR with time. Snow-liquid

ratios will be in the mid teens. MVFR conditions will be more

common moving thru Sunday afternoon, as widespread snow gives

way to light lake effect snow showers.



Lightish se winds this evening. N to nw winds develop Sunday,

becoming gusty in the afternoon.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016-017-

     022-023-029-086-087-095-097>099.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ018-024-088-

     096.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021-

     025>028-031>034.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ030-035-036-

     041-042.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-

     344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JK

LONG TERM...JK

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

205

ACUS11 KWNS 292118

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 292117

TXZ000-292315-



Mesoscale Discussion 2241

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0317 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025



Areas affected...Central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 292117Z - 292315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across north-central

TX and across parts of the TX Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are

expected to generally remain sub-severe, but a few strong/severe

storms are possible.



DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are

underway near the DFW metro area where a cold front is impinging on

northward returning moisture. Modest moisture advection will likely

continue immediately ahead of the front across portions of central

and northeastern TX for the next several hours, supporting around

500 J/kg MLCAPE and the potential for additional thunderstorms.

Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, recent ACARS

soundings and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show very modest/narrow

buoyancy profiles on the northern fringe of the returning moisture.

This, along with the undercutting nature of the front, should hinder

overall updraft intensities. Nonetheless, damaging winds, and

perhaps instances of severe hail, appear possible as storms spread

east/southeast given a favorable kinematic environment.



Further south, shallow convective showers have been percolating over

the past 1-2 hours along and north of the I-10 corridor

west/northwest of the Houston metro within a low-level confluence

zone/residual gravity wave. Cumulus has gradually become more

cellular within this zone and at least one attempt at deep

convection is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low

80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance.

High-res models continue to show considerable spread/uncertainty on

thunderstorm coverage within this zone in the 21-00 UTC time frame,

but the warm temperatures and persistent, albeit weak, mesoscale

lift suggest that at least a few additional attempts at deep

convection should be anticipated prior to 00z and the arrival of the

cold front later tonight. If deep convection can mature, better

buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly better low-level helicity

near the surface warm front may support a relatively higher chance

for strong/severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a brief

tornado, though confidence in this potential is low.



Given the modest environment across northern/central TX and

uncertainty pertaining to thunderstorm coverage along the Coastal

Plain, watch issuance is not expected.



..Moore/Gleason.. 11/29/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...



LAT...LON   29769492 29539539 29449608 29499674 29659725 29839771

            30399801 31779815 32259799 32509782 32759750 32909719

            32959678 32899635 32739612 30839448 30469431 30209439

            29999457 29769492



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN