Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

162

ACUS01 KWNS 231239

SWODY1

SPC AC 231238



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0638 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



Valid 231300Z - 241200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and

immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms

may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is

expected.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving

through the southern stream across TX. This shortwave is forecast to

continue eastward throughout the day, progressing through the Lower

MS Valley and ending the period over AL. Another shortwave trough

will follow in the wake of the first wave. This second shortwave,

which is currently over the central Rockies, is expected to continue

quickly southeastward, reaching central TX by early tomorrow

morning.



Recent surface analysis places a low just off the Upper TX/southwest

LA coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low

through the northwest Gulf. This low is expected to move eastward

ahead of its parent shortwave trough, remaining just offshore while

gradually deepening. With this low expected to remain offshore,

little if any airmass modification in anticipated onshore with

offshore flow maintaining cool and stable surface conditions. Even

so, moderate low-level warm-air advection (supported by 850 mb winds

from 20 to 30 kt), will persist, supporting a broad area of mostly

showers from the Lower MS Valley across the central Gulf Coast.

Buoyancy will be limited by moist profiles and poor lapse rates, but

cool mid-level temperatures should still support enough buoyancy for

isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest

thunderstorm coverage is expected over LA Coast.



Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of OR and

WA amid the strong westerly/southwesterly upper flow and cooling

mid-level temperatures anticipated throughout the period. Greatest

thunderstorm chances are expected after 00Z across WA, as a

shortwave trough and associated large-scale forcing for ascent move

through the region.



..Mosier/Grams.. 02/23/2025



$$






                

                        

454

ACUS02 KWNS 230704

SWODY2

SPC AC 230702



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal

Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.



...Synopsis...

A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas

to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low

already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day

and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the

western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level

jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the

Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday

evening/Monday night.



...South Florida and the Florida Keys...

A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the

beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe

thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will

weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the

Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR,

maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida.

This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a

localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority

of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest

storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution

does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in

later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low

for probabilities at this time.



...Northwest...

A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb

surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger

wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak

instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would

indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind

gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong

synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.



..Bentley.. 02/23/2025



$$






                

                        

014

NWUS53 KAPX 201534

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1034 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1033 AM     Snow             4 ENE Arcadia           44.54N 86.15W

02/20/2025  M3.2 Inch        Benzie             MI   CO-OP Observer



            24 hour total. snow depth 24 inches.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

449

FXUS63 KAPX 231455

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

955 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures trending upward



- Mixed precipitation/rain chances through midweek



- Breezy and potentially mild at least Monday



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 955 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025



Overcast mid/high clouds cover the region, ahead of a shortwave

trof sliding across the central/southern lakes. A bit of a

disconnect between moisture/forcing; better mid-level omega/

ascent slips just to our south, but better moisture is up here

in northern MI. Swath of mostly virga is making inroads into

northern MI. Actual light snow is back in central/western upper

MI and adjoining parts of far northern WI. A few spots dip down

to 2-3SM vsbys, but most are higher. But a further uptick in

mid-level theta-e advection should allow the warm advection wing

to become more prominent, resulting in periodic light snow

today over northern lower MI and western parts of Chip/Mack Cos.

Maybe a few spots see up to half an inch of new snow.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:



Cold anomalies continue to get shunted off to our northeast as upper

level flow regime begins to take on a much more zonal flavor across

central NOAM...allowing air of more Pacific origin to increase its

influence across the region. Still some remnant northwest flow aloft

as northeast NOAM centered troughing relaxes, with embedded low

amplitude shortwave troughs dropping southeast into the upper Great

Lakes. One such wave brought a round of non-impactful snow showers

this past evening, with yet another wave and attendant area of light

snow showers dropping into the upper Mississippi Valley. Temperature

continue to trend milder, with current readings mostly still in the

20s.



Weak area of high pressure set to slide into and through the area

early this morning, quickly followed by the next upstream low

amplitude wave this afternoon. Much stronger wave and attendant strong

surface reflection expected to dive across Ontario and Lake Superior

later tonight, dragging a southward extending surface trough into the

western Great Lakes in the process.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends through tonight and addressing any light

snow/wintry mix potential.



Details:



Interesting little set-up expected today with arrival of that wave,

with guidance derived soundings showing deep saturation within a

weakly forced environment. Definitely expecting to see some

flurries/pockets of light snow develop from west to east today,

especially targeting areas south of the big bridge. Will introduce

this potential to the forecast, with any accumulations expecting to

be minor. Abundant clouds and that snow will throttle back on the

warming potential some, but still looking at widespread highs in the

lower and middle 30s this afternoon.



Top-down thinning of the moisture this evening, ending any lingering

snow concerns. Respectable surge of forcing and moisture set to

arrive later tonight ahead of that next surface trough, with

juxtaposition of best forcing/moisture this time targeting areas

north of the Mighty Mac (even better forcing and moisture further

north). Thermal profiles support initial snow followed by a

transition to a light wintry mix...to include rain. Any snow/wintry

mix amounts look to remain light, and again especially centered on

areas of eastern upper Michigan. While may see some slick travel

develop early Monday morning, definitely does not look impactful nor

widespread enough to warrant any type of headline.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 336 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone setting up across the continent,

albeit high-bridged...with 1019mb surface high over Manitoba...and

1030mb high over the Gulf Coast states. Surface reflection of this

BCZ stretches from northern Alberta down into the International

Falls region...where a surface low is trying to spin up with a bit

of energy. BCZ/cold front continues to loop down into Lake

Superior...then back up into northern Quebec. Cold air north of

this...with an upper low settling into NE Canada near the top of

Hudson Bay. Some weak warm advection and attendant light snow into

the central US/Upper Midwest...but warmest air and surface warm

front remain out over the central Plains...ahead of SW-NE oriented

trough axis stretching from the Desert SW into Manitoba. Decent feed

of Pacific moisture into the northern tier of the country...with

120+kt upper jet poking into the PacNW with pwats approaching

1.5inches out there.



Active weather to be the norm through the upcoming week...beginning

relatively mild for early week with a BCZ lingering in the area; a

couple PV maxima riding this boundary through the Midwest Sunday

night/Monday...and Monday night/Tuesday. A sharp upper trough looks

to develop for midweek over the central US...driving a system

eastward through the Midwest. Colder air expected to ooze into the

area behind this trough axis as it sharpens up crossing the

region...potentially turning the lake machine back on after a brief

break. Beyond this...ridging looks to build into the Upper Midwest

ahead of another sharp trough diving down from central Canada. Quite

a bit of uncertainty attm in the evolution of this feature and its

attendant surface reflection for the end of the week...but will keep

an eye on potential for some activity, assuming guidance trends

continue to support this idea in future runs.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Mixed precip/rain, breezy, mild temps on Monday...Best forcing

remain north Monday morning/afternoon, closer to the front and

shortwave aloft. Still looks like we strip out a lot of the deeper

moisture in the wake of the warm front early in the day...though low

level moisture looks to hang on across the area to some degree, per

guidance soundings. Think this is a result of snowmelt with SW winds

and advection of above-freezing dewpoints into the region...which

could certainly keep temps from reaching their fullest potential

across a great deal of the area (if we remain

cloudy/foggy/grungy...and do have concerns we may end up more foggy

than currently expected). Thermal profiles attm suggest much of the

area should largely transition to rain Monday morning, even with the

low-level moisture around...with greatest shot of a wintry mix

hanging over the Yoop/Straits region through the day, closer to the

colder air/boundary. Any snow that does accumulate (not expecting

much attm) will be wet/heavy/sloppy.



SW winds should ramp up as this potent PV max zips by

Monday morning in particular. Pressure gradient supports sustained

winds in the realm of 10-15kts, potentially bumping up around 20kts

at times. Good confidence in gusts of 20-30kts, esp during the

morning hours. Does appear we have a decent LLJ (40+kts at 850mb),

though not sure how well this will mix down. Dry slot punching in

during the morning may be the best shot at downward momentum

transfer and this idea coming to fruition...if it`s able to punch

through the stagnant low-levels...and if this ends up being the

case...certainly not impossible there could be a period of wind

advisory-level gusts Monday morning...though potential attm appears

to remain low.



Mixed precip chances continue into midweek...think there is a shot

at some nuisance drizzle/freezing drizzle/mix with the PV niblet

passing by to our south Monday night as temps try to fall back below

freezing after dark...though the better chances for precipitation

should remain well to our south. Next best chance for precip will be

warm advection action Wednesday ahead of the system. With potential

for the BCZ to be to our south by this time...think there may be a

bit better concern for freezing rain to try to slip in late Tuesday

night/Wednesday morning with this system than the others...which

certainly bears watching going forward...along with the potential

for wet snow/mix during the day.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 628 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025



Band of MVFR producing clouds and even some flurries/very light

snow showers expected to impact the taf locations today. Any

snow accumulations should remain light...likely well under an

inch. Improvement expected tonight as cigs increase. May see a

period of late night wind shear as low level jet overspreads the

region. Light winds today, with winds become a bit gusty out of

the southwest late tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST

     Monday for LMZ344>346.



&&



$$



UPDATE...JZ

SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...FEF

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

617

ACUS11 KWNS 191809

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191808

VAZ000-NCZ000-192315-



Mesoscale Discussion 0118

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1208 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025



Areas affected...Portions of northern/northeast North Carolina into

southeast Virginia



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 191808Z - 192315Z



SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1 in. per hour are possible within a

snow band in parts of northeast North Carolina and southeast

Virginia. Immediate coastal areas could see slightly higher rates.



DISCUSSION...As mid-level ascent continues to increase across the

Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, a coastal trough is expected to deepen

offshore. By the evening, a deeper surface low should be present off

the coast from the Carolinas. This process should promote

low/mid-level frontogenesis across parts of the region. This already

appears to be occurring in northern/northeast North Carolina into

southeast Virginia. Wakefield, VA ASOS has reported heavy snow

within the last 30-45 minutes. This band should continue to

translate northeastward through the afternoon into the evening.

Moderate to heavy snowfall is probable within this band with overall

rates near 1 in. per hour anticipated. Some areas near the immediate

coast may see slightly higher rates or at least longer duration snow

as the frontogenetic lift should be maximized in these areas.

Snowfall intensity will eventually decrease by late evening into

Thursday morning. With southern extent, towards central North

Carolina, more of a mix of wintry precipitation is possible along

the edge of the snow band as there will be greater influence from

the low/mid-level warm nose.



..Wendt.. 02/19/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...



LAT...LON   35927883 35887899 35857930 35957960 36087975 36247965

            36497933 37137790 37447667 37427611 37347581 37037561

            36597552 36257570 36077666 36027741 35957839 35927883