115

ACUS01 KWNS 070543

SWODY1

SPC AC 070541



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL

PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible,

mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.



...FL Peninsula...

Abundant convective development is expected later this morning

across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely

west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream

cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced

differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north

FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve

from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level

flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection

may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak

mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to

convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for

transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated

across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized

damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an

aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected

modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two.



..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025



$$






                

                        

158

ACUS02 KWNS 070502

SWODY2

SPC AC 070500



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,

perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for

thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday

through Monday night.



...Synopsis...

The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level

vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern

Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador

vicinity during this period.  However, models indicate that

large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the

Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad

ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S

Intermountain West.



One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is

forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,

across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may

contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the

Caribbean and Bahamas.  In lower levels, an associated reinforcing

intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the

southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the

remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.



At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave

perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will

provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian

and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night.  This likely will be

accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high

plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and

across much of the remainder of the U.S.



...Southern Florida/Keys...

Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for

thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing

front.  Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for

appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,

limited as well.



..Kerr.. 12/07/2025



$$






                

                        

418

NWUS53 KAPX 062056

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

356 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0352 PM     Snow             2 W Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.42W

12/06/2025  M5.0 Inch        Chippewa           MI   Broadcast Media



            Facebook report of 5 inches of snow since

            6AM.





&&



$$



SJC








                

                        

889

FXUS63 KAPX 070447

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1147 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snow chances continue at times through the weekend.



- Cold overnight low temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning.



- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later

Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.



- Watching potential for more impactful snow toward the middle of

next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad troughing remains situated over the

eastern two thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with continued lake

effect snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior. Upstream, an

embedded mid-level impulse is trekking across the Dakotas, which

will become the focus for additional widespread light snow across

northern lower Michigan late tonight into Sunday. By late in the day

Sunday, ~1032mb high pressure begins to press in the from the west

setting the stage for a very cold Sunday night/Monday morning.



Forecast Details: Mainly light to locally moderate lake effect

snow showers continue across northern lower this afternoon with

localized additional accumulation of up to a half inch or so

across northwest lower and the tip of the mitt. Farther north

across northern Chippewa County, better banding has been in and

out of the area for much of the day -- and remains the area

where a localized additional inch or two remains possible

through this evening, especially from near Paradise to the Soo.



By this evening, aforementioned embedded shortwave expected to be

upstream with its sights set on southern MI for late tonight into

Sunday morning. Latest trends still favor a general 1-3" of

light/fluffy snow, mainly south of a line from Petoskey to Rogers

City, before this system exits from west to east mid-Sunday morning

through midday. Some localized 1-3" amounts also possible near

Whitefish Pt as lake effect continues to percolate off of Lake

Superior. As noted by the previous forecast, light winds through

much of the event should yield land breeze processes and potential

for convergent snow bands/meso vortex generation. Expectation

remains for these features to stay offshore, but will probably wind

up being a nowcast thing to monitor their movement for any

potentially locally heavier snows near the lakeshores.



Some scattered lake induced snow showers remain possible through

Sunday afternoon/early evening -- most numerously across parts of

Chippewa County and northwest lower. High pressure slides overhead

Sunday night/early Monday morning with a cold night anticipated.

Widespread single digits are expected across northern MI with

portions of the interior seeing values drop below zero, especially

where clear skies materialize given a fresh addition to the snow

pack.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



Day 3-4 (Monday - Tuesday ): By late Monday/Monday night, next

embedded shortwave expected to be digging across the upper MS

Valley. Attendant sfc low pressure development expected in the

vicinity of this feature with flow becoming south-southwesterly

locally. Increasing confidence in a fairly decent SSW flow lake

effect/enhanced event, perhaps starting as early as Monday

afternoon for portions of the eastern U.P. and into Monday

night/Tuesday morning for northwest lower. Outside of SSW flow

snow belts, most numerous snow showers expected during the day

Tuesday as the mid- level wave slides overhead. Latest ensemble

probabilities hint at 40- 70% chances of at least 4" across

portions of the eastern U.P., Beaver Island, and far northwest

lower during this time frame. Certainly a time frame worth

monitoring over the next couple of days.



Day 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday

night/Tuesday`s system, another more potent wave is expected to dig

across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday

night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across

the Upper Midwest and into southern MI. While it appears to be a

quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible -- although

confidence is generally low on where the swath of heaviest snow will

fall.



Beyond Wednesday, the seemingly endless parade of clippers still

doesn`t really have an end in sight with additional waves and

renewed snow chances returning Thursday into Friday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1146 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



Low-end VFR cigs will be pretty typical at the TAF sites thru

the forecast, with a chance for some snow showers. TVC/MBL will

see a period of -SHSN late tonight/Sunday morning, with MVFR

cigs and borderline IFR/MVFR vsbys at times. Best chance for IFR

conditions early Sunday morning is at MBL.



Light winds tonight, a northwest breeze kicks in Sunday.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for

     LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 10 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-

     322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

188

ACUS11 KWNS 070054

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 070054

IAZ000-070400-



Mesoscale Discussion 2251

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0654 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Areas affected...central Iowa



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 070054Z - 070400Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow to continue across portions of

central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Occasional rates 1"/hr

with heavier bands.



DISCUSSION...Recent radar and surface observations suggest moderate

to heavy snow continues across portions of central Iowa. This is

occurring near the surface low and in the region of strong DPVA

aloft overspreading central Iowa. Two regions that will favor heavy

snow (possible 1"/hr rates) over the next couple of hours are near

the zone of 700-850 mb frontogenesis across central Iowa north of

Des Moines and in a smaller mesoscale sector along and south of I-80

and trending eastward of I-35 where a more narrow band of heavy snow

has developed.  Guidance indicates a gradual downward trend in

snowfall rates is expected through the late evening/early morning

Sunday. However, periods of locally moderate snow may continue at

times across northeastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin/northern

Illinois.



..Thornton.. 12/07/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...



LAT...LON   41659462 41259415 40959400 40789385 40689358 40719337

            40909298 41079272 41409255 42279223 42579245 42759301

            42839358 42509421 41659462