990

ACUS01 KWNS 090049

SWODY1

SPC AC 090047



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0647 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025



Valid 090100Z - 091200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible tonight.



...Discussion...

With the surface cold front having recently pushed off the FL

Peninsula/Keys, dry/stable conditions will mitigate

lightning-producing convection across the CONUS tonight. Isolated

thunderstorms are possible offshore across the FL Straits as the

boundary slows/stalls.



..Grams.. 12/09/2025



$$






                

                        

746

ACUS02 KWNS 081705

SWODY2

SPC AC 081703



Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.



...Synopsis...

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the

Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,

resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland

thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity

is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests

that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south

of the FL Keys.



To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move

quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High

Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)

surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold

front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the

Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop

within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains

during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday

night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust

potential currently appears unlikely.



..Dean.. 12/08/2025



$$






                

                        

884

NWUS53 KAPX 081610

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1110 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0930 AM     Snow             1 NNE Sault Ste. Marie  46.50N 84.35W

12/08/2025  M7.5 Inch        Chippewa           MI   Public



            Snowfall total between 5pm yesterday and

            930am in the Soo. Report from Facebook.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

041

FXUS63 KAPX 090436

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1136 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- South-southwest flow lake effect ramps up later this

  afternoon with widespread synoptic snow spreading across

  northern MI tonight into Tuesday.



- Another system Tuesday night - Wednesday bringing accumulating snow

  to parts of the area. Additional lake effect snow likely in

  its wake Wednesday evening - Thursday.



- Additional snow chances Friday into the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over

the eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. While surface high

pressure sits overhead currently, attention is focused upstream on a

wave currently making headway into the Dakotas. Attendant ~1008mb

sfc low follows suit. This wave expected to be just on the other

side of Lake Michigan by 12z Tuesday before crossing northern MI

Tuesday morning/midday. Initial south-southwest flow lake effect

expected to ramp up this afternoon/evening with synoptic snow

arriving area-wide later tonight into Tuesday.



Forecast Details: Initial SSW flow lake effect band beginning to

materialize across central/northern Lake Michigan as of early this

afternoon. Latest trends still supporting that to intensify and

progress north into parts of western/central Mackinac County later

this afternoon/early evening with locally intense snow continuing

through the evening. This band may scrape parts of the far northwest

lower shoreline through this time as well -- far western

Benzie/Leelanau counties most susceptible to this. By later tonight

into early Tuesday morning, synoptic snow expected to spread

across the remainder of the forecast area with lake enhancement

continuing near the Lake Michigan shoreline.



This system a rather quick mover with the bulk of steadiest snow in

the rear view mirror by midday Tuesday, though some lingering lake

aided snow showers linger into the afternoon, especially in

west/west-southwest flow favored areas. This should focus the most

notable lingering snow showers across the tip of the mitt, perhaps

enhanced locally near/around the Little Traverse Bay convergence

zone and stretching inland to near I-75.



With respect to accumulation and impacts, the heaviest snow is still

expected across parts of western Mackinac County (perhaps stretching

into western Chippewa as well) with 3-8 inches and highly localized

amounts of 10-12+ inches not out of the question. A general 3-6

inches across Beaver Island and far northwest lower over sections of

Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties. 2-4 inches anticipated over

the broader Little Traverse Bay region, although some locally higher

amounts can`t be ruled out. Lesser amounts of 1-3 inches across the

remainder of northern lower and east of I-75 in the U.P. Hazardous

travel will be the result, most notably across parts of western

Mackinac/Chippewa counties, Beaver Island, and into far northwest

lower where snow-covered roads and low visibility may be exacerbated

as times by blowing/drifting snow as a result of increasingly gusty

winds of around 30 mph. Worst of these conditions may

materialize along US-2 from Brevort and points west where

southwest winds may gust locally higher this evening-tonight

coinciding with the area of greatest snowfall.



Not much of a break with another system hot on the heels of this one

for Tuesday night - Wednesday, discussed in further detail

below.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 216 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several

periods to watch for potentially impactful snow.



Tuesday night - Thursday:  By Tuesday evening, low pressure is

expected to be situated over western MN, quickly making eastward

progress across WI overnight and into southern/central MI by

Wednesday morning. More uncertainty with this system as ensemble

spread remains a little wider than preferred, especially with

respect to low pressure track and resultant swath of heaviest snow.

Latest trends continue to support the highest probabilities for 4"+

of snow maximized over parts of northern lower, as high as 50-70% in

spots. Plenty of Pacific moisture with this system. but still looks

to have quite the warm advection response with it -- and non-zero

chances for some rain to mix in, primarily near and south of the M-

55 corridor from Manistee to Saginaw Bay.  That said, if strongest

FGEN forcing can survive its trip into Michigan, a narrow band

of locally heavier snow seems likely, although the most likely

area for that to occur remains TBD.



In the wake of this system, northwest flow lake effect snow shower

should kick in Wednesday afternoon and likely continue in spots

through Thursday. Additional accumulation and hazardous travel

likely to continue across these snow belts.



Friday into the weekend:  Another wave set to cross the northern

tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core

of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend.

H8 temps progged as low as around -20C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range

ENS trends favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake

effect/enhanced event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with highs

in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much of

northern MI through this time frame. However, given such cold

temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited,

resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an

extent, but also yield lower visibilities. &&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



Light winds become S to SSE through afternoon into the overnight,

increasing to sustained 10-15kts, esp at MBL/TVC and eventually APN.

LLWS around 1500ft, from the SW at 30-35kt; expect this to start

mixing down as gusts in the morning with subtle wind shift to S/SSW

behind subtle front. VFR cigs slowly decrease to MVFR this

afternoon/evening and eventually IFR for most all sites, with worst

conditions starting 5-9z for MBL/TVC/CIU and possibly PLN. IFR

conditions make it into APN toward 12-15z. Expect lowering visbys

with snow/blowing snow tonight as well which could drop categories

quicker/more frequently than expected. Possible some fog/low stratus

may try to develop overnight, esp at APN, and have hinted at this in

TAFs.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025



Period of IFR vsbys expected in -SHSN at all sites between very

late tonight and early Tuesday afternoon. This will affect the

area from w to e, with the shortest period of IFR conditions

expected at APN. Otherwise mostly VFR until the snow arrives,

and MVFR cigs after the snow ends. Southerly winds increase and

become blustery tonight, veering sw/wsw during the day Tuesday.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020-025-

     031-086-098.

     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ095.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ096.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>347.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ348-349.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

923

ACUS11 KWNS 080047

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 080046

FLZ000-080245-



Mesoscale Discussion 2253

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0646 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025



Areas affected...West-central Florida



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 080046Z - 080245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat

will continue this evening.



DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms continues to approach

the western coast of Florida this evening. Within this line, a few

stronger supercells have developed. The KTBW WSR-88D is sampling a

somewhat tight circulation from a supercell around 15 miles

northwest of Anna Maria Island. Expect this storm/circulation to

weaken as it moves into the cooler (upper 60sF) shelf-waters near

the coast. Even if it does persist, it will likely be undercut by

the southward moving outflow boundary within the hour which should

end the threat. Additional storms are developing southwest of this

circulation (farther away from the southward moving outflow) which

may maintain some threat for the west coast of Florida through the

evening.



Some surface based instability is present on the 00Z TBW RAOB

(~750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While weak mid-level lapse rates will

likely inhibit new deep convection inland, enough instability may

exist to support maintenance of the supercells that develop over the

Gulf. These stronger storms may pose an isolated damaging

wind/tornado threat this evening given the veered low-level wind

profile.



..Bentley/Guyer.. 12/08/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...



LAT...LON   27868294 28058225 28078163 27838124 27528121 27338156

            27178218 27058268 27318289 27868294



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH