666

ACUS01 KWNS 061614

SWODY1

SPC AC 061613



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1013 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Valid 061630Z - 071200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.



...Synopsis...

A progressive flow pattern will remain over the Lower 48 states

today.  In the low levels, a front will reside over the Gulf and

extend east-northeastward across the northern half of the FL

Peninsula and east of the Carolina coast.  The 12 UTC Tampa, FL raob

showed poor lapse rates.  Limited buoyancy coupled with

weak/negligible low-level convergence/large-scale ascent will act to

limit convective coverage and intensity across the central FL

Peninsula today.



..Smith/Barnes.. 12/06/2025



$$






                

                        

046

ACUS02 KWNS 061651

SWODY2

SPC AC 061649



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of

Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.



...Florida...



An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern

U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb

west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula

atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across

north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs

with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the

surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening.



Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and

persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection

regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel

temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates,

and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg

MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a

stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could

approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a

strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all

risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to

include probabilities.



..Leitman.. 12/06/2025



$$






                

                        

854

NWUS53 KAPX 061337

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

837 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0800 AM     Snow             1 SSE Petoskey          45.36N 84.95W

12/06/2025  M3.2 Inch        Emmet              MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station PTYM4 Petoskey NCMC.



0800 AM     Snow             2 S Eastlake            44.21N 86.29W

12/06/2025  M3.1 Inch        Manistee           MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station MANM4 Manistee 3 SE.



0700 AM     Snow             1 ENE Harbor Springs    45.43N 84.98W

12/06/2025  M3.0 Inch        Emmet              MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-EM-5 Harbor Springs 0.7

            ENE.



0800 AM     Snow             3 N Wellston            44.26N 85.94W

12/06/2025  M3.0 Inch        Manistee           MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station WELM4 Wellston Tippy

            Dam.





&&



$$












                

                        

405

FXUS63 KAPX 061725

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1225 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snow/snow showers remain through this weekend.



- Below zero temps Sunday night into Monday morning across the

  interior.



- A medium potential (~40-70%) exists for at least 4" of snow later

  Monday into Tuesday for locations adjacent to the Lake MI shoreline.



- Another system bears watching for more accumulating snow mid next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Any significant snows from last night will dwindle to mainly light

lake induced snow showers through the day as H850 temps drop into

the mid teens below zero. That being said, best potential for a

burst of snow today will be across northern portions of Chippewa

county, with a quick few inches not out of the question for a small

subset of the county assuming banding shifts far enough south. Some

progged fcst soundings flirt with with a patch or brief instance of

freezing drizzle as well, so cannot rule it out across the area.



Today, potent complex trough will be spinning to the north across

Ontario, center slowly meandering across the southern portion of

Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a positively tilted short wave on the

backside of the trough will swing to the southeast tonight across

the Upper Midwest. There will be additional short waves/pieces of

energy displaced to the south within the general flow aloft. The

combination of the pieces of energy aloft, general sfc troughing,

and sufficiently cold low levels will produce snow showers/light

snow across the region beginning late tonight into early Sunday for

most. Generally speaking though, impactful weather through tonight

remains relatively low (outside of a rogue lake effect band in

Chipp) with instances of snow and minor accums. Daytime temps in the

20s and lows in the teens for most.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1213 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



Day 2-4 (Sunday - Tuesday):



Mid level impulse, seen at H500 & H700, and general sfc troughing

will aid in light snow development across the region through the day

on Sunday. An inch to three of accumulation will be possible, with a

relatively thick and saturated DGZ making for efficient, fluffy

accumulation. Some of the CAMs show convergent snow bands and the

potential for meso vortex formation near the LM, LH, LS

shorelines, but most keep these features predominantly offshore.

We`ll hedge towards that solution at this time but refinement

will be needed. Another place to keep an eye on will be near

Whitefish/ E UP, with a little more lake inducement/mesoscale

processes possible, but this will be spatially sensitive as

well. All this being said, this should be a light snow event for

most, if not all, but some subtle details make this event worth

monitoring.



The story heading into the overnight will be the cold advection with

high pressure settling in from the north. Widespread single digits

are expected across northern MI Sunday night into Monday with

portions of the interior seeing values below zero (first time this

season?).



Interesting setup heading into the early portions of this week.

Relatively vigorous short wave trough digs into N MN & WI later

Monday and Monday night. Sfc low pressure development expected

within the vicinity of this feature. Flow around the low level

circulations will lead to southwest flow across Lake MI, likely

leading to a decent SSW lake effect/enhanced event Monday night into

Tuesday. Snow showers expected across the rest of northern MI on

Tuesday as the trough aloft swings on through. This is seen pretty

well in the LREF probabilities, with medium probs (40 to 60%) for at

least 3" (10:1 ratio, it might be close to double that in

reality) across western Mack, Beaver Island, parts of the LM

coast. Model_Certainty tool verifies the ENS, with moderate

snows showing up within some of the deterministic guidance and

blends. Something to monitor and fine tune in the coming days

for sure. Next system will be right on its heels Tuesday night.



Days 5-7 (Wednesday - Friday):



Another system is expected to move west to east Tuesday night into

Wednesday with sfc low pressure system progged to track across the

Upper Midwest and then into MI. A couple to several inches of snow

would be possible with this system, albeit this will likely be a

quick mover. In the ENS, there`s a subtle shade towards more

QPF/snow across the central and southern portions of the state, but

being this far out these details will likely change. Colder behind

this system late next week with the potential for lake effect snow

showers to some degree.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1222 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



CIG`s continue to lift this afternoon while winds generally

weaken, keeping VFR condtions through the evening hours. SCT and

BKN MFVR Cu returns to KMBL and KTVC after 0600Z as -SN tracks

across the region. Breezy NW winds build Sunday afternoon,

delivering -SNSH to all sites besides KAPN and continue beyond

the end of the forecast period.





&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for

     LHZ345>348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321-

     322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...SJC






                

                        

386

ACUS11 KWNS 061826

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 061825

IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070030-



Mesoscale Discussion 2250

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025



Areas affected...Far southeast South Dakota and northwestern Iowa



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 061825Z - 070030Z



SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snowfall are developing across portions

of far southeastern SD, and will continue to expand into

northwestern IA within an hour or two. Snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5"

per hour can be expected.



DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow is expected to

broaden this afternoon through this evening across northwestern IA,

as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches. Increasing DPVA will

accompany this feature, in addition to strong isentropic ascent.

Most NWP models and forecast soundings suggest omega will peak

within the dendritic growth zone through ~22Z over northwestern IA.

HREF probabilities of QPF greater than 0.10" per hour, combined with

snow to liquid ratios around 15-20 to 1, also support this time

frame for the heaviest snowfall.



..Barnes.. 12/06/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...



LAT...LON   43709693 43699633 43629615 43589590 43509545 43439511

            43249476 43069448 42829426 42399452 42339494 42149520

            42109535 42119548 42159557 42189572 42229581 42269592

            42269606 42339633 42429642 42559654 42699686 42849722

            42999725 43449725 43709693