568

ACUS01 KWNS 111614

SWODY1

SPC AC 111612



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1012 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



Valid 111630Z - 121200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.



...Discussion...

A broad midlevel trough will move off the Eastern Seaboard today,

while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Southeast.

Farther west, a weak surface low and accompanying cold front will

advance eastward from the central Plains to the Mid MS Valley.

Dry/stable conditions ahead of/behind the front will limit

thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.



..Weinman.. 12/11/2025



$$






                

                        

681

ACUS02 KWNS 111658

SWODY2

SPC AC 111656



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the

U.S. Friday through Friday night.



...Synopsis...



An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper

troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will

be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture

along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys

will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing

a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central

Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the

period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse

moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is

expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder

probabilities.



..Leitman.. 12/11/2025



$$






                

                        

750

NWUS53 KAPX 111741

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1241 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1239 PM     Snow             1 SSE Darragh           44.76N 85.04W

12/11/2025  M7.4 Inch        Kalkaska           MI   NWS Employee



            Storm total snowfall since last night as of

            12:30pm. Snow still falling.





&&



$$



HAD








                

                        

091

FXUS63 KAPX 111629

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1129 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lake effect snow continues through the day today, slowly waning

  in intensity and coverage.



- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.

  Blowing snow and significant visibility reductions possible.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Bowling ball of an upper low continues to move to the east through

the day today, from the Ontario/Quebec juxtaposition to the US

Northeast with northwest flow remaining. Sufficiently moist and cold

low level profiles will remain across northwest snow belts for

additional lake effect. Environment is characterized by relatively

shallow inversion heights, getting shallower with time, but lake

effect snow showers will continue. There will likely be some

momentum with the ongoing lake effect now (~7Z), so we`ll have to

see how robust the bands remain into the morning hours.

Nevertheless, the better low level convergence fades through the

day, coincident with the lowering BLHs. Thus, if all goes according

to plan, expect up to two additional inches of snow across northwest

snow belts, locally higher not out of the question in the vicinity

of Kalkaska/Antrim county. Winds decrease later in the day on

Thursday for most as pressure gradient relaxes.



Heading into the overnight, heights generally rise compared to the

previous 12-24 hours, with an inconsequential short wave diving to

the southeast across southern MI. A few weak and light snow showers

remain close to Lake Michigan, enough for a festive feel in the air.

But generally a continued relaxing of both the winds and

precipitation is expected into the overnight. Low temps dip into the

teens most locations, low 20s on Lake MI shoreline, single digits

for the colder spots across the interior.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):



Winds shift to the southwest on Friday, out ahead of the next low

pressure system and frontal boundary. Vigorous upper low dives down

across northern MI later Friday into Saturday with plenty of cold

advection. Thus, lake enhanced snows can be expected later

Friday (beginning earlier for those southwest lake enhanced

zones within the vicinity of Lake Michigan), with lake effect

snow continuing through Saturday. Cold low level temps will mute

snow ratios/efficiency to some extent, but accumulating snows

and gusty winds are likely across a good chunk of northern MI.

The highest impacts Friday evening through Saturday evening from

blowing and accumulating snow (perhaps a broad 2-4"/3-6"),

along with significant visibility reductions, will be across

northwest lower MI. Secondarily, portions of Chippewa county.

Temperatures will be in the teens and single digits through the

day on Saturday.



Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):



Upper trough axis will likely be east of northern Michigan to start

Sunday, or in the process of moving to the east across the eastern

Great Lakes. Consequently, lake effect snows will continue through

the day with a component of NW to NNW snowbelts, with an emphasis on

the earlier portions of the day. The environment appears to become

increasingly unfavorable later in the day and thus the snow

dwindles, if only for a brief moment.



Heights rise heading into next week in response to extensive ridging

building over the central and western CONUS. Some of this will build

eastward with time next week, resulting in increasing temperatures.

For reference, the NBM/LREF suggest medium to high probabilities (40-

80%) for above freezing high temps by next Wednesday, so expect

a steady trend upwards in temperatures early next week. Still

will likely be unsettled weather (snow chances) early in the

week as well with a few quick moving short waves riding the east

side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1129 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



Bouncing between VFR and MVFR courtesy of passing snow showers

through the afternoon. Anticipating MVFR generally during snow

showers and marginal MVFR to IFR outside snow showers. Potential

for lower CIGs and VSBYs in any snow showers. Much of this

activity should taper this afternoon... with just NW lower sites

and CIU clinging to snow shower chances tonight into tomorrow.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for

     MIZ021-026-027-033-034.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348-

     349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

247

ACUS11 KWNS 101407

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101407

VTZ000-NYZ000-101800-



Mesoscale Discussion 2257

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 101407Z - 101800Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the

late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized

instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur.



DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become

established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from

the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the

Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb

convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a

saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic

growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy

snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early

afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from

the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates

are possible.



..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...



LAT...LON   42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354

            43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613

            42767646 42817652