Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

280

ACUS01 KWNS 110100

SWODY1

SPC AC 110058



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0758 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025



Valid 110100Z - 111200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered thunderstorms will linger across portions of the western

U.S. and the southern Florida Peninsula.



...01z Update...



Upper low off the Oregon Coast will advance inland later tonight.

This will maintain favorably moist trajectories across the lower CO

River Valley into the Great Basin. Seasonally high PW values are

noted across this region which has stunted lapse rates, but an axis

of modest instability continues from southeast CA-southern

NV-western UT. This corridor remains modestly sheared through 6km,

but storms have struggled to produce severe, partly due to somewhat

poor lapse rates. Even so, this corridor should remain convectively

active tonight and a brief wind gust can not be ruled out with the

most robust updrafts.



Across south Florida, isolated-scattered thunderstorms will

concentrate near the southern tip of the peninsula in conjunction

with a northward-drifting upper trough. However, the majority of

lightning will likely remain just offshore.



..Darrow.. 10/11/2025



$$






                

                        

938

ACUS02 KWNS 101729

SWODY2

SPC AC 101728



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN

GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon

into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado

Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the

Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.



...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...

A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal

shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday

afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of

strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be

favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great

Basin into parts of the CO Plateau.



In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the

Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the

afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it

pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively

poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler

surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening

deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly

straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the

weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a

marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four

Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the

degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into

clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for

sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau.



...NC Outer Banks...

Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the

evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South

Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing

across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally

supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk

of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through

the period, there`s enough signal to warrant a low-probability

threat of a brief tornado/severe gust.



..Grams.. 10/10/2025



$$






                

                        

845

NWUS53 KAPX 102011

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

411 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0240 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

10/10/2025  M44 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.



1224 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Frankfort          44.63N 86.25W

10/10/2025  M41 MPH          LMZ346             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XFLT Frankfort Light.





&&



$$





FEF






                

                        

755

FXUS63 KAPX 102331

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

731 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain and embedded showers will exit tonight as clouds hang

around



- Seasonal temperatures with mostly cloudy skies this weekend



- Next system will could move in early to mid week next week



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025



An upper low will be moving across northern MI towards PA/NY this

evening and tonight. Current satellite shows the upper circulation

on track with (and even slightly ahead of) 12Z guidance.

Scattered rain showers will continue to move across northern MI

this evening, but will likely diminish overnight tonight as

winds turn north. Mostly cloudy skies will hang around into

Saturday. Light rain and/or sprinkles will be possible over NW

lower and eastern upper early Saturday as minor lake instability

will keep the boundary layer somewhat saturated. These light

rain shower chances will shift to NE lower during the day

Saturday as winds shift to the NE/E, with chances lowering below

10%. Drier air will seep over NW lower and could allow for some

more sunshine later Saturday there.



Forecasted rain amounts for Friday thru Saturday are generally a

tenth of an inch up to a half of an inch. Areas forecasted to

receive the higher amounts (quarter of an inch or more) are

eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt, with the highest

amounts near the SOO.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025



The upper level low stalls over western PA/NY Sunday, curbing the

typical dry out northern MI can see with surface high pressure to

the east. Upper ridging builds in over northern MI, allowing

temperatures to warm 5 to 10 degrees for Sunday and Monday. The next

system approaches the state Monday, however most guidance is

indicating it will struggle to overcome the upper ridging and will

track to the NE into CAN. Ensembles and deterministic global

guidance are having a tough time resolving the interactions of the

approaching system from the west, the weakening upper ridge, and the

weak cut off low that stalled over western NY/PA. Most ensembles are

favoring the solution for the two weaker features (upper ridge and

stalled low) to weaken the impact of the approaching system

Monday and Tuesday over MI - with the upper lows reorganizing

and strengthening once they move east of the state. However,

many tools show a wide spread in the ensembles solutions for

Monday and Tuesday (the highest WPC cluster (cluster 1) is only

comprised of 26% of the total members).



In summary, the extended forecast has lower predictability for

northern MI due to our location with respect to these larger and

weaker upper level features. We can say, with some confidence,

that the availability of moisture for widespread beneficial

rains (0.5"+) will not be present - leading to the two possible

scenarios of either 1) generally clouds with little to no rain,

or 2) parts of the state receive periods of light to moderate

rain Monday into Tuesday.



Regardless of precipitation, temperatures will likely remain

seasonal through most of the work week as another system could

pass through for the late part of the week. Winds will be breezy

with gusts at times.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025



Dry slot to continue to move SE through this evening; another round

of -SHRA swivels back in as is apparent over CIU already...and think

this will mainly affect CIU, PLN, and APN through the

period...though not impossible a shower or two develops near

TVC/MBL. Behind the dry slot, cigs remain largely MVFR as additional

low clouds settle in, but could drop to IFR at times under the

showers; expect this idea to prevail through the period...with slow

improvements to VFR by Saturday afternoon. Some 25kt LLWS aloft

around 1kft again, but think it will periodically mix down and have

coded it thusly in TAFs, with no explicit WS group. Winds turn NNW

to N through 7-9z, becoming NE through 15z with gusts to 20kts, and

E after 18z, but should slowly diminish from 10-15kts tonight to 5-

10kts by afternoon.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for

     LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-

     344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...ELD

LONG TERM...ELD

AVIATION...FEF






                

                        

027

ACUS11 KWNS 102101

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 102101

UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-102300-



Mesoscale Discussion 2141

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0401 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025



Areas affected...parts of southern Nevada and adjacent portions of

southeastern California and southwestern Utah



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 102101Z - 102300Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...A couple of sustained strong thunderstorms may develop

through 3-5 PM PDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind.



DISCUSSION...Downstream of a still broad, deep mid-level low

centered offshore of the Oregon coast, moistening on southerly

low-level flow across the lower Colorado Valley into Mohave Desert

is contributing to modest boundary-layer destabilization with

insolation, beneath a residual pocket of cooler mid-level

temperatures.  This is occurring in the presence of strong

deep-layer shear, beneath a belt of 50-60 kt flow around 300 mb

focused across southern Nevada and adjacent portions of southeastern

California and southwestern Utah.



Latest objective analysis and forecast soundings indicate the

presence of lingering mid-level inhibition, but this is eroding and

will continue to do so with additional boundary-layer warming and

perhaps increasing large-scale forcing for ascent.  Showers have

begun to develop, with lightning already evident with one cell near

the California/Nevada border to the southwest of Las Vegas.  Further

intensification seems probable during the next few hours, leading to

sustained scattered thunderstorm development.



Embedded within an environment characterized by southwesterly 30 kt

deep-layer mean flow, stronger storms with evolving supercell

structures will tend to propagate eastward/southeastward into early

evening accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and

localized potentially damaging wind gusts.



..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...



LAT...LON   35701644 36721567 38601423 38391284 37641272 36251386

            35171491 34861614 35701644



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN