Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

821

ACUS01 KWNS 151933

SWODY1

SPC AC 151931



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025



Valid 152000Z - 161200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.



...20z Update...

No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See

previous discussion below for more information.



..Thornton.. 12/15/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025/



...Synopsis...



Thunderstorm potential will remain low today as strong surface high

pressure and cut-off Gulf moisture results in a dry/stable airmass

across much of the CONUS. A weak shortwave impulse will move over

portions of the Pacific Northwest today/tonight. A few lightning

flashes will be possible offshore, but minimal instability and

generally shallow convection will preclude stronger updrafts through

sufficiently cold temperatures aloft to produce thunderstorms

inland.



$$






                

                        

603

ACUS02 KWNS 151622

SWODY2

SPC AC 151621



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Tuesday).



...Synopsis...

A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the northern CONUS

tomorrow (Tuesday), prompting surface troughing across the central

U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Cool temperatures aloft will

overspread the northern OR into WA coastline areas, promoting scant

buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support the potential for a few

lightning flashes. Across the western Gulf Coast, adequate return

flow of moisture, driven by aforementioned surface troughing, will

support marginal buoyancy and associated potential for isolated

thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.



..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025



$$






                

                        

168

NWUS53 KAPX 151558

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1058 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0809 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Beaver Island       45.70N 85.57W

12/15/2025  M40 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KSJX Beaver Island.



0940 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

12/15/2025  M38 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.





&&



$$












                

                        

613

FXUS63 KAPX 152047

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

347 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lingering light precip/drizzle/freezing drizzle issues tonight/

Tuesday.



- Midweek warming trend ahead of a system expected to bring rain (!)

to northern Michigan Thursday...



-...then back to reality with another push of Arctic air

 Thursday night/Friday. Snow potential as well as flash freeze

 possibilities Thursday night.



- Additional precipitation chances for the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 342 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Long wave trough is getting shunted

to the east today as Pacific air begins to flood into western

North America. Low amplitude ridging across the Pacific

Northwest/western Canada downstream of a Pacific-basin omega

block. Short wave trough zipping across the Great Lakes

today...assisting with the warm advection driven snow event

across the forecast area earlier today. Speaking of which: 850mb

0C isotherm pushing into Wisconsin... which is a harbinger of

what is to come later this week. Remnants of weekend Arctic high

(1038mb) centered along the Ohio River...weak low pressure

(1015mb) along the Minnesota/Dakotas border...surface

trough/shallow cold front extends northeast into northern

Ontario with a stubby warm front into southern Minnesota/Iowa.



Flow pattern expected to become a zonal Pacific-dominated one as the

week progresses with a couple of short wave troughs of note.  First

quick moving wave passes by Wednesday...while a stronger wave digs

into the Plains Thursday and lifts across the region Friday.  A

third system swings through for the coming weekend.  Surface

trough/cold front across northwest Ontario drops into Lake Superior

tonight but that is probably as far south at it will get as deep

layer warm air advection and subsequent height rises continue across

the Great Lakes.  850mb temperatures warm above freezing for the

first time in what seems like forever by Tuesday morning...and surge

to +8C by evening.  A true Alberta Clipper associated with

Wednesday`s short wave trough will slide by well to the north of

Michigan...its associated cold front will try to edge its way into

the state from the north Wednesday.  Probably won`t make it very far

south given the low amplitude nature of its parent short wave

trough.  More substantial system...really another Clipper but

developing farther south across the northern Plains...will take aim

on the Great Lakes in the Thursday time frame.  This system looks

like it will whiplash from warm to cold...so definitely some impacts

to think about.  Another weaker system may impact the state this

weekend.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Lingering light precip/drizzle/freezing drizzle issues tonight/

Tuesday: Starting out this afternoon with some lingering west/

southwest flow light snow/flurries as mid level moisture strips

out...CBL depth is shallow given warm advection.  What is

interesting however is bottom part of the inversion is

saturated...and at temperatures at or above -10C.  So while it is

still cold enough for a bit of a lake response...some questions

about ice nucleation potential raise the question of whether we can

squeeze out some flurries and/or light freezing drizzle at least

this evening.  Couple of recent PIREPS over northwest Lower

reporting riming...would prefer to see some reports of clear/mixed

icing to better corroborate this idea but at least the icing reports

indicating small supercooled cloud droplets.



During the day Tuesday a band of mostly mid level moisture crosses

the forecast area...along with steeper mid level lapse rates but

with a dry layer of air below that should preclude much in the way

of measurable precipitation.  But there are indications of shallow

instability within southwest flow off Lake Michigan...and now

definitely at temperatures that should preclude ice nucleation. So

wondering if there is still a chance for some drizzle/freezing

drizzle along the Lake Michigan shoreline (surface temperatures will

be close to or maybe above freezing).



Midweek warming trend ahead of a system expected to bring rain (!)

to northern Michigan Thursday...:  Rather remarkable stretch of cold

weather (unless you hate winter like myself):  last time we saw a

high temperature above normal was the day before Thanksgiving (26

November)...and we haven`t been close to a normal high temperature

since.  But that is expected to change over the next several days

(normal highs for mid December range from 30 to 34 degrees);

consensus forecast highs for Wednesday are still in the 30s even

with a quick shot of colder air so have tempered those down a bit

especially across eastern Upper as highs may stay in the 20s.

Thursday looks to be the warmest day for certain with strong

southerly flow ahead of the approaching upstream system...

temperatures expected to be within several degrees either side

of 40. Nice surge of moisture with precipitable water values at

or above 0.75 inch which is a +2 to +3 sigma standardized

anomaly for mid December. So a widespread rain-on-snow event

will unfold Thursday...there is a non-zero probability that

precipitation could start as freezing rain in the race between

above freezing surface temperatures and precipitation starting.

This is not expected to be hydrologically significant given the

next bullet in the long term section below...



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 342 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



Primary Forecast Concerns:



...back to reality with another push of Arctic air Thursday night/

Friday. Snow potential as well as flash freeze possibilities

Thursday night: The return to cold weather is forecast to arrive

Thursday night...cold frontal passage will be accompanied by

strong north/northwest winds and temperatures plummeting quickly

through 20s and into the teens by Friday morning. This brings

up a real concern for a flash freeze event with wet roads icing

up as temperatures drop...and add in some windblown snow to help

polish things up. Wind gusts 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph along

the Lake Michigan shoreline look likely at this point. Have

already dropped this mention into the Hazardous Weather Outlook

this morning. Snow/snow showers continue into Friday with

temperatures back in the upper teens/ 20s.



The short nature of the rainfall and the cold air "locking up" any

snowmelt/runoff should preclude a sharp hydrologic response to this

event.  But with ice already on area river and the thaw-freeze cycle

will continue to present a threat for backwater flooding where ice

jams do develop.



Additional precipitation chances for the weekend: Temperatures should

moderate Saturday but as usual the push of warm air will be

accompaniedby some precipitation (snow). Colder air likely

makes a comeback on Sunday along with lake convection.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1214 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025



Most sites continue seeing SHSN into this afternoon as a system

departs. Largely MVFR prevailing for the time being... but as

snow stops, moisture will be slow to leave. Flurries and DZ /

FZDZ will be possible this evening into tonight. With this comes

further complications on flight categories, as conditions will

worsen after snow stops. Lots of firm MVFR to borderline IFR

conditions to prevail tonight as winds trend variable and

calmer. Heading into Tuesday, winds pick up considerably as a

warmer and more moist air begins to spill into the region. Thus,

gusty S to SSE winds build through the morning, with potential

for advection fog / BR to carry through the morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday

     for LHZ345>349.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for

     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 PM EST Wednesday

     for LSZ321.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EST Tuesday for

     LSZ322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JPB

LONG TERM...JPB

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

589

ACUS11 KWNS 131544

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 131543

INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-131945-



Mesoscale Discussion 2258

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0943 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025



Areas affected...far southeast IA...central IL...amd west-central IN



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 131543Z - 131945Z



SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow with bursts of rates

around 1 inch per hour expected through around 20Z.



DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data and surface observations

depict a swath of moderate to locally heavy snow spreading eastward

across eastern IA, central IL, and western IN. As strengthening DCVA

preceding an embedded midlevel perturbation (evident in water-vapor

imagery) continues spreading eastward into IL over the next couple

hours, an uptick in the coverage of heavy snowfall rates can be

expected. This increase should generally focus in an east/west

corridor extending from southeast IA across central IL into

west-central IN through around 20Z -- when the aforementioned lift

overspreads a cold, deeply saturated profile with a favorable

isothermal layer below 700 mb for aggregation. Snowfall rates of

around 1 inch per hour are expected beneath the core of the heaviest

banding, with bursts of locally higher rates possible.



..Weinman.. 12/13/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...



LAT...LON   39398761 39728927 40099058 40519152 40969185 41349183

            41669154 41669096 41338964 40968807 40738664 40418605

            39778602 39338653 39398761