Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

788

ACUS01 KWNS 231254

SWODY1

SPC AC 231252



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0752 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026



Valid 231300Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging

winds are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this

afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe wind

threat may occur over portions of the northern Great Basin.



...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor satellite

imagery this morning across the Pacific Northwest will move

east-northeastward today across the northern Rockies and western

Canada. 40-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds will

overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains of

central/eastern MT by this afternoon. As large-scale ascent

preceding the mid-level trough spreads eastward, thunderstorms

should initially form over the higher terrain of western MT.

Downstream destabilization of a sufficiently moist low-level airmass

will support the development of weak instability (MLCAPE generally

500-1000 J/kg) into central/eastern MT and vicinity. 30-40 kt of

effective bulk shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells

initially moving off the higher terrain, with both severe hail and

wind gusts possible. With time, upscale growth into bowing clusters

seems probable with eastward extent in MT, and an increasing risk

for severe/damaging winds. Given the very well-mixed boundary layer

and enhanced mid-level flow expected, some of these gusts could

exceed 75 mph on an isolated basis.



A somewhat separate area of convection should develop this afternoon

across parts of the northern Great Basin. While mid-level flow will

be somewhat weaker across this region compared to locations farther

north, the presence of generally 50s surface dewpoints across

northern UT and vicinity suggests that sufficient low-level moisture

exists to support robust updrafts. As daytime heating occurs and

low-level lapse rates steepen, loosely organized cells/clusters

should form and subsequently spread northeastward while posing a

threat for scattered severe gusts.



...Northern/Central Plains...

A band of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from

southern SD into NE, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection.

This activity should gradually weaken through the morning as the

low-level jet subsides, but an isolated threat for severe hail may

continue in the short term given sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer

shear to support supercells. A narrow corridor of moderate to

locally strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon

across the western Dakotas/NE along/east of a lee surface trough

where greater low-level moisture will reside. At least isolated

thunderstorms should develop by peak afternoon heating across these

areas, with west-northwesterly flow strengthening with height

through mid/upper levels. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will

support supercells and associated threat for large hail with any

sustained surface-based convection.



Overall coverage remains uncertain given weak/nebulous large-scale

ascent, but some guidance shows these cells growing upscale into a

cluster or two this evening with some severe wind risk. Regardless,

severe hail should be the main concern with supercells initially,

and the Slight Risk has been nudged westward a little to account for

the probable zone of initiation. Weaker mid-level flow is expected

with southward extent into the central High Plains, but occasional

hail and gusty winds could still occur with any high-based

convection that develops and spreads eastward through the early

evening.



...Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into the Ozarks...

A weak mid-level disturbance aiding convection this morning over

SD/NE will move southeastward today on the eastern periphery of

upper ridging centered over the southern High Plains/Southwest. This

feature, in tandem with increasing isentropic ascent associated with

a modest south-southwesterly low-level jet, may aid thunderstorm

development late tonight into early Monday morning across parts of

northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Instability is forecast

to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but

some clustering may occur with a low chance for gusty/locally

damaging winds. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk

across this area, as confidence remains limited in both overall

convective intensity and evolution.



...Northeast...

An upper trough/low centered over Ontario and the Great Lakes this

morning will translate slowly eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and

Northeast through the period. A corresponding weak/occluding surface

low will make only modest eastward progress into Quebec through the

day, with a cold front forecast to move eastward across parts of the

Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by this evening. Cloud cover is prevalent

across these regions per latest visible satellite imagery. This,

coupled with poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z observed

soundings from ALB/OKX), will limit the amount of destabilization

that can occur through this afternoon with filtered daytime heating.

Still, enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will be present

today across parts of NY into New England, with around 30-35 kt of

deep-layer shear supporting some updraft organization. Current

expectations are for cells and clusters that develop along/ahead of

this front this afternoon to pose a threat for mainly isolated

damaging winds as they spread east-northeastward through this

evening before eventually weakening. Marginally severe hail may also

occur with the strongest cores. But, the weak instability and poor

lapse rates aloft should generally limit the overall severe threat.



...Southeast...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop later today

along/south of a weak front draped across the lower MS Valley into

the Gulf Coast states, and continuing northeastward into the

Carolinas. With the exception of the Carolinas, low/mid-level flow

will remain quite weak for much of the Southeast. Still, any cells

which can develop may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds, as

moderate to strong MLCAPE coupled with steep low-level lapse rates

through daytime heating support the potential for wet microbursts.

On the southern periphery of mid/upper troughing over the Great

Lakes/Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, stronger flow aloft will exist

across the Carolinas. This may foster some updraft organization

given sufficient deep-layer shear. But, most guidance continues to

show any convection that forms this afternoon across the eastern

Carolinas will move quickly offshore.



...Arizona...

To the west of a mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the

southern Rockies/High Plains, weak southeasterly mid-level flow will

exist today across southern/central AZ. Instability across this

region is forecast to remain rather muted/weak owing to shallow

low-level moisture. A deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast to

develop with robust daytime heating, but confidence in thunderstorms

developing over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and subsequent

clustering into the lower deserts remains low. Even so, have

maintained the Marginal Risk for severe gusts with no changes.



..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/23/2026



$$






                

                        

026

ACUS02 KWNS 230553

SWODY2

SPC AC 230551



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE

NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHERN MAINE...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with at least isolated severe gusts/hail are possible

across the northern Great Basin to the High Plains and northern

Plains Monday afternoon and evening. A couple of damaging gusts may

also occur with storms in Maine and along parts of the Gulf Coast to

the eastern Carolinas.



...Northern Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian prairies on

Monday with some weak height falls overspreading North Dakota and

northern South Dakota. A weak surface low will accompany this trough

with a cold front extending into the Dakotas. Moderate to

potentially strong instability is forecast ahead of this cold front.

Subtle forcing from the height falls and weak convergence along the

front may support isolated storms during the afternoon/evening.

Long/straight hodographs would support supercells capable of large

hail and severe wind gusts. Steep lapse rates will support some

potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. In addition, if any longer lived

supercells can develop, 2+ inch hail is also possible. Stronger

forcing, hinted at by the more amplified mid-level trough on the 00Z

NAM, would support greater storm coverage and potentially greater

hail/wind probabilities in later outlooks.



...Northern Great Basin into the central High Plains...

Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop over the higher

terrain from the northern Great Basin to the central Rockies. As

storms move into the adjacent Plains, where strong heating and steep

lapse rates are forecast, severe wind gusts are possible. Storm mode

will be single cell to multicell, with only 15 to 25 knots of shear

across the region. However, the thermodynamic profile will support

an isolated severe wind threat.



...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s amid mid 70s F dewpoints will

yield MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg from Louisiana to the North Carolina

coast. Despite weak tropospheric flow, enough moisture-fueled

buoyancy will support the potential for wet downbursts capable of

damaging gusts during the afternoon.



...Maine...

Deep-layer ascent ahead of an ejecting mid-level shortwave trough

will support scattered thunderstorm development during the late

morning into the afternoon hours across central and northern Maine.

A belt of 60 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will pivot around the

upper trough and overspread Maine during the afternoon, when

buoyancy will be maximized. MLCAPE may exceed 750 J/kg with over 50

kts of effective bulk/speed shear. Therefore, any storms that

develop may become multicellular or transient supercellular in

nature, posting an isolated damaging gust/hail threat through the

afternoon.



..Bentley.. 08/23/2026



$$






                

                        

792

NWUS53 KAPX 230012

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

812 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1200 PM     Flood            Otsego Lake State Park  44.93N 84.71W

08/22/2026                   Otsego             MI   NWS Employee



            Delayed report. Significant and deep mud

            deposited on W Otsego Lake Dr from High

            Tower Trail due to heavy rain. A number of

            other dirt roads experienced washouts of

            varying degrees. Time estimated via radar.





&&



$$



JLD








                

                        

319

FXUS63 KAPX 231112

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

712 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble

of thunder not impossible



- High swim risks today and possibly into Monday



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp

troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson

Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great

Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the

coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on

either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided

in yesterday`s localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into

New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface

low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front

with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of

the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids

in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak

stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath

it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to

advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is

a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward

Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already

taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb

surface high focused over Manitoba/MN.



PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area

today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and

northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the

area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will

still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure

finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday.

Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern

Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley

as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday,

bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward

troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the

latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast

tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting

in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking

ridge setting up over northern Canada?



FORECAST DETAILS...



Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the

pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would

limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will

remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into

Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away.

Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but

should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind

rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the

day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through

late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don`t look

overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of

the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this

evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts

will largely reflect this idea, and still don`t have a lot of

confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this

would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps

also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some

channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in

dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most

beaches.



Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined

with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some

potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along

with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn`t be

impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though

inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a

cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will

try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the

region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could

come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but

not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy,

would expect it would be similar to yesterday`s scattered pop-up

convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern.



Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening

from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish

feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this

would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain

and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher

QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in...

but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain

offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the

moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing

with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the

idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable

thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 654 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026



Low clouds this morning leading to MVFR at most terminals.

Clouds will linger for the next couple hours, but will improve

to mostly VFR by 15z. Northwest winds will quickly strengthen to

15kts with frequent gusts up to 25kts. Chances for VCSH near

some terminals. MVFR ceilings move in over KAPN/KCIU/KPLN after

00z with chances for -RA. Winds gradually diminish through the

end of the period. Very low chances for TS.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018-

     020-021-024-025-031-098-099.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-

     344.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...FEF

AVIATION...ELD






                

                        

665

ACUS11 KWNS 222337

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 222337

VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-230100-



Mesoscale Discussion 2095

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0637 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026



Areas affected...Portions of eastern KY...far western VA...and

eastern TN



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...



Valid 222337Z - 230100Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616

continues.



SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may

spread east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening, though a

downstream watch is not expected.



DISCUSSION...Along an eastward-moving cold front, two clusters of

loosely organized thunderstorms in Middle TN and eastern KY are

tracking east-southeastward toward the eastern edge of Severe

Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening. Around 30-40 kt of midlevel

west-northwesterly flow (per JKL/OHX VWPs) oriented perpendicular to

the front will aid in the maintenance of these storms for the next

hour or so -- before reaching the higher terrain. This will

especially be the case into eastern TN -- where lower/middle 80s

temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints remain in place. As a result,

the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may spread east of

the watch. However, given the localized nature of the ongoing severe

risk, a downstream watch is not expected.



..Weinman.. 08/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...



LAT...LON   36108557 36278521 36698420 37368336 37718261 37788245

            37728207 37498184 37088184 36478219 35828309 35298452

            35308514 35518552 35808569 36108557



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN








                

                        

754

WGUS83 KAPX 190247

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1047 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026



MIC055-165-190415-

/O.CON.KAPX.FA.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-260819T0415Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Grand Traverse MI-Wexford MI-

1047 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026



...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Grand Traverse and Wexford.



* WHEN...Until 1215 AM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1047 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to

    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin

    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain

    have fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected

    over the area. This additional rain will result in minor

    flooding.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Buckley.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



&&



LAT...LON 4453 8543 4439 8547 4444 8572 4445 8576

      4448 8581 4457 8581





$$



JZ