493

ACUS01 KWNS 110555

SWODY1

SPC AC 110553



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1153 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday.



...DISCUSSION...

A mid-level trough will move eastward from the eastern U.S. into the

western Atlantic today, as northwest flow remains over most of the

nation. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be

located from parts of the Great Plains to the southern and central

Appalachians. The relatively cool and dry airmass will be

unfavorable for thunderstorm development across the U.S. through

tonight.



..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/11/2025



$$






                

                        

049

ACUS02 KWNS 110530

SWODY2

SPC AC 110529



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the

U.S. Friday through Friday night.



...Discussion...

Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of

the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a

shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the

Pacific Northwest during this period.  As this occurs, digging short

wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level

troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great

Lakes vicinity.  However, in general, models indicate that the

persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually

lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient

tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio

Valleys and Mid Atlantic.  In lower levels, a leading surge of

colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the

Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday

night.



In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern

periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern

Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the

northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin.  Beneath

this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening

will continue.  In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to

develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is

possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become

conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z

Saturday.



...Texas coastal areas...

Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various

models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing

conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower

through middle coastal areas late Friday night.  Highest

probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak

thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal

waters.  At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be

maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in

later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm

probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.



..Kerr.. 12/11/2025



$$






                

                        

246

NWUS53 KAPX 101658

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1158 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1100 AM     Snow             Au Gres                 44.05N 83.70W

12/10/2025  M3.8 Inch        Arenac             MI   Trained Spotter



            24 hour snow total since 11am 12/9.





&&



$$












                

                        

237

FXUS63 KAPX 110837

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

337 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lake effect snow continues through the day today, slowly waning

  in intensity and coverage.



- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.

  Blowing snow and significant visibility reductions possible.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Bowling ball of an upper low continues to move to the east through

the day today, from the Ontario/Quebec juxtaposition to the US

Northeast with northwest flow remaining. Sufficiently moist and cold

low level profiles will remain across northwest snow belts for

additional lake effect. Environment is characterized by relatively

shallow inversion heights, getting shallower with time, but lake

effect snow showers will continue. There will likely be some

momentum with the ongoing lake effect now (~7Z), so we`ll have to

see how robust the bands remain into the morning hours.

Nevertheless, the better low level convergence fades through the

day, coincident with the lowering BLHs. Thus, if all goes according

to plan, expect up to two additional inches of snow across northwest

snow belts, locally higher not out of the question in the vicinity

of Kalkaska/Antrim county. Winds decrease later in the day on

Thursday for most as pressure gradient relaxes.



Heading into the overnight, heights generally rise compared to the

previous 12-24 hours, with an inconsequential short wave diving to

the southeast across southern MI. A few weak and light snow showers

remain close to Lake Michigan, enough for a festive feel in the air.

But generally a continued relaxing of both the winds and

precipitation is expected into the overnight. Low temps dip into the

teens most locations, low 20s on Lake MI shoreline, single digits

for the colder spots across the interior.&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025



Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):



Winds shift to the southwest on Friday, out ahead of the next low

pressure system and frontal boundary. Vigorous upper low dives down

across northern MI later Friday into Saturday with plenty of cold

advection. Thus, lake enahnced snows can be expected later Friday

(beginning earlier for those southwest lake enhanced zones within

the vicinity of Lake Michigan), with lake effect snow continuing

through Saturday. Cold low level temps will mute snow

ratios/efficiency to some extent, but accumulating snows and gusty

winds are likely across a good chunk of northern MI. The highest

impacts Friday evening through Saturday evening from blowing and

accumulating snow (perhaps a broad 2-4"/3-6"), along with

significant visibility reductions, will be across northwest lower

MI. Secondarily, portions of Chippewa county. Temperatures will be

in the teens and single digits through the day on Saturday.



Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):



Upper trough axis will likely be east of northern Michigan to start

Sunday, or in the process of moving to the east across the eastern

Great Lakes. Consequently, lake effect snows will continue through

the day with a component of NW to NNW snowbelts, with an emphasis on

the earlier portions of the day. The environment appears to become

increasingly unfavorable later in the day and thus the snow

dwindles, if only for a brief moment.



Heights rise heading into next week in response to extensive ridging

building over the central and western CONUS. Some of this will build

eastward with time next week, resulting in increasing temperatures.

For reference, the NBM/LREF suggest medium to high probabilities (40-

80%) for above freezing high temps by next Wednesday, so expect

a steady trend upwards in temperatures early next week. Still

will likely be unsettled weather (snow chances) early in the

week as well with a few quick moving short waves riding the east

side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1133 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025



Classic lake effect impacts on our taf locations through today, with

a mixture of mostly MVFR to lower end VFR conditions expected.

May see some IFR conditions at times as well with any passing

more significant snow showers. However, most significant snow

accumulations expected to remain between taf sites. Some

gradual improvement expected by later this afternoon and into

this evening. Northwest winds, at times gusty, will continue

today, with winds becoming light tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for

     MIZ021-022-026>028-033-034-086-087-099.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for

     LHZ345>347.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348-

     349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

247

ACUS11 KWNS 101407

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101407

VTZ000-NYZ000-101800-



Mesoscale Discussion 2257

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 101407Z - 101800Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the

late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized

instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur.



DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become

established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from

the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the

Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb

convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a

saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic

growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy

snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early

afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from

the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates

are possible.



..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...



LAT...LON   42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354

            43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613

            42767646 42817652