Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

338

ACUS01 KWNS 230542

SWODY1

SPC AC 230540



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

AND GREAT LAKES...



...SUMMARY...

Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible

today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the

Great Lakes.



...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great

Lakes...

At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern

U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central

states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into

the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending

southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface

dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate

destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases

along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to

initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are

expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and

near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern

Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However,

low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which

could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe

threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat

occurring in the late afternoon and early evening.



...Southern and Central High Plains...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much

of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance

southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,

surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm

during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead

of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although

deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this

corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to

mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage

threat.



...Northern Maine...

At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern

New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface,

a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where

surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S

F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection

initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in

northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer

shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage

threat during the early to mid afternoon.



..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025



$$






                

                        

472

ACUS02 KWNS 230602

SWODY2

SPC AC 230600



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN

WY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into

southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast

Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible

from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast.



...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the

Southwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strong

mid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec,

resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the

East.



At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of the

central Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will be

draped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakes

vicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of the

northern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England.



...WY/CO into western NE/SD...

Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapse

rates will support moderate destabilization across parts of eastern

WY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organized

storms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop from

late afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localized

severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscale

growth will be possible through the evening, which could spread at

least an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. The

longevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, due

to increasing low-level stability.



...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes...

In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilization

will support development of strong to potentially severe storms from

parts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes,

along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely be

focused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near any

remnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weak

along/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow will

support potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locally

damaging wind.



Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within the

broad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in the

placement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maxima

precludes higher probabilities at this time.



...Parts of the Northeast/New England...

Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heating

will support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of the

Northeast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent and

deep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flow

and steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat of

damaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Storm

coverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities may

eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm

development during the afternoon and evening.



...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic...

A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the periphery

of the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and

Southeast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, there

is a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage across

this region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in storm

development is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layer

shear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidence

in storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft will

be present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed.



..Dean.. 06/23/2025



$$






                

                        

466

NWUS53 KAPX 220209

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1009 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0640 AM     Lightning        1 E Traverse City       44.75N 85.57W

06/21/2025                   Grand Traverse     MI   Public



            Social media picture of large oak tree

            significantly damaged by a lightning strike.

            Location estimated.





&&



$$












                

                        

814

FXUS63 KAPX 230542

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

142 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Hot and humid through Monday with heat advisories in effect

- Severe thunderstorms possible late Monday afternoon/evening

- Active weather pattern much of next week with several shower

  and thunderstorm chances



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025



The heat goes on.  Anomalously warm airmass continues to dominate

the weather across the eastern CONUS with 582 dam thickness planted

right over the Great Lakes. It is unusual to see such a widespread

area of 70+ degF dewpoints covering nearly all of Michigan.  A

potentially record breaking warm night in store for northern

Michigan as min temperatures will offer little relief from the

daytime heat.  For northern lower, "lows" 75-80 degf, with 65-70

degf in eastern upper.  A very uncomfortable sleeping night for

those without air conditioning.  The upper (and thermal) ridge begin

to slide slowly east tonight, with an upstream cold front poised to

approach the area on Monday (and bring eventual relief from the

heat/humidity).



One more hot/humid day on Monday with 850mb temperatures just a

touch lower than Sunday in response to gradually lowering

heights/increased clouds in advance of the cold front. Despite

this, widespread highs in the 90s for northern lower (80s

eastern upper) with triple digit heat indices once again. After

a brief period of lower PWAT`s, deeper moisture once again

begins to move into the area Monday afternoon as PWAT`s 200% of

normal fold into the northern lakes. Thunderstorms should

develop mid/late afternoon over eastern upper and northwest

lower in advance of front. Plenty of buoyancy (CAPE`s nearly

2000 j/kg) with unidirectional shear pointing toward more linear

storm development. Could certainly see a few severe storms

develop with damaging winds the primary threat. Given the surge

in PWAT`s and the somewhat skinny CAPE on the soundings,

locally heavy rain may also be an issue.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025



Cold front pushes into the area Monday night accompanied by showers

and thunderstorms. Still quite warm Monday night, although some

relief will arrive late from northwest to southeast with the

front. The remainder of week features an active weather pattern.

Numerous shortwaves will ride the northern periphery of the

upper ridge, interacting with a ribbon of unusually moist air

with PWAT`s of 150%+ of normal layed out across the Great Lakes.

It will be difficult to time any one of these features given

the fast flow but showers and storms will be in the forecast on

most days. Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in

the 70s to lower 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025



VFR conditions are expected to persist across northern Michigan

through Monday afternoon. LLWS in excess of 30kts is possible

through tonight as surface winds relax some in combo with quickly

increasing winds of 40+ kts just off the surface. Southwest winds

will increase to 10-15 kts Monday morning into the afternoon with

gusts between 20-30 kts into the evening. Thunderstorm chances move

in from west to east across northern Michigan later Monday

afternoon, spreading to many areas of northwest lower and the Tip of

the Mitt in the 22Z Monday-06Z Tuesday time frame. A few storms may

be severe with the primary hazards of damaging wind gusts and

frequent lightning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018-

     020>036-041-042-099.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ020-025-

     031-095-096-098.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this

     evening for LHZ346-347.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this

     evening for LHZ349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JK

LONG TERM...JK

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

435

ACUS11 KWNS 230304

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 230303

SDZ000-NEZ000-230430-



Mesoscale Discussion 1414

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1003 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025



Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...



Valid 230303Z - 230430Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453

continues.



SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely

continue for several hours across parts of central NE and southeast

SD.  A few instances of large hail will remain possible, but the

primary severe threat is diminishing.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to persist and increase in areal

coverage to the north of a surface cold front extending across

central NE.  All of the storms in this region are elevated, but in

an environment of sufficient CAPE/shear to maintain some risk of

large hail for a few more hours.  While there is some potential for

a watch extension beyond 04z, the primary severe concern appears to

be diminishing.



..Hart.. 06/23/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...



LAT...LON   42930021 44349829 44329685 43499692 42279847 40680119

            41870070 42930021



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

134

WGUS83 KAPX 211541

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025



MIC097-211551-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-250621T1545Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Mackinac MI-

1141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM EDT THIS MORNING...



The Flood Advisory will expire at 1145 AM EDT this morning for a

portion of eastern upper Michigan, including the following area,

Mackinac.



The heavy rain has ended...and thus new flooding is no longer

expected to pose a threat. However avoid areas where water remains

across roadways.



&&



LAT...LON 4586 8456 4581 8465 4583 8467 4581 8470

      4582 8481 4583 8483 4582 8485 4582 8489

      4584 8491 4587 8493 4590 8490 4593 8483

      4589 8458





$$



JPB