846

ACUS01 KWNS 281253

SWODY1

SPC AC 281252



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0652 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Valid 281300Z - 011200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of

the central/southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.



...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...

A cold front will settle slowly southward today across the central

FL Peninsula as large-scale upper troughing persists over the

eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will continue

to advance eastward over FL through the morning and eventually

offshore by this evening. The surface front over the central FL

Peninsula has been reinforced by overnight/early morning convection.

This front, along with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze, should provide

a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon.

Daytime heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass coupled with

relatively cool mid-level temperatures (around -10 to -12C at 500

mb) will likely support weak to moderate instability by mid

afternoon. Even though low-level flow will tend to remain weak and

mostly parallel to the surface front, modestly enhanced mid-level

winds and related deep-layer shear should foster some updraft

organization with thunderstorms that can develop this afternoon.

Both isolated severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur

with the strongest cores, before convection eventually focuses

offshore by this evening.



...Oklahoma...

Weak MUCAPE should develop by this afternoon/early evening across

parts of OK near a surface trough. A low-amplitude shortwave trough

embedded within broad cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS

may support isolated thunderstorm development across this area in

tandem with peak afternoon heating. Instability should remain too

weak to support an organized severe threat with this activity,

although locally strong/gusty winds and small hail appear possible

given steepened low-level lapse rates and favorably strong

deep-layer shear.



...Northern California...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-northeastward today

across northern CA and vicinity. Cool temperatures aloft associated

with this shortwave trough combined with generally 40 to mid 50s

surface dewpoints and filtered daytime heating should promote around

500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over this region by mid to late afternoon.

While a couple of stronger thunderstorms may form across this area,

the overall severe threat should tend to be limited by the weak

instability.



..Gleason/Bentley.. 02/28/2026



$$






                

                        

646

ACUS02 KWNS 280639

SWODY2

SPC AC 280638



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south

Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern

California.



...DISCUSSION...

A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on

Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be

possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a

quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central

Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into

the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from

southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,

isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a

shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe

threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday

night.



..Broyles.. 02/28/2026



$$






                

                        

370

NWUS53 KAPX 281003

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

503 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0900 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 E Wolverine           45.27N 84.59W

02/27/2026  M39 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC025 Mi-02 Wolverine.



0142 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Frankfort          44.63N 86.25W

02/28/2026  M39 MPH          LMZ346             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XFLT Frankfort Light.





&&



$$












                

                        

710

FXUS63 KAPX 281118

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

618 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow later today and mainly tonight, mainly near and

  south of M-72, near Whitefish Point, and Grand Traverse Bay.



- Much colder this weekend, low temps below zero for some.



- Temperatures moderate next week, active weather/precipitation

  chances returning to the region.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1107 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Surface high pressure system will dive southeast through the day

today across the Northern Plains - Upper Midwest. On the cusp

of the low level temperature gradient will be a band of

frontogenesis, one of which will situate across the Upper

Midwest and the Great Lakes region, while troughing remains to

the north across Canada. Most guidance points to this feature

remaining near or just to the south of M-55, with the potential

for a light snowfall for portions of northern lower Michigan

later today into tonight. Meanwhile, cold low level temps and

northwest winds will result in some lake effect snow across the

E UP, and additionally in the vicinity of the Leelanau

Peninsula and Grand Traverse Bay. Could see a couple of inches

of snow near Whitefish Point, and then near/south of M-72 as

well later today and into portions of the overnight due to the

frontogenetical forcing. Expect a general 1 to 2" in spots south

of M-55, with 1 to locally maybe near 3" in the lake effect

zones from GTB and the Leelanau Peninsula through tonight. Could

be a little breezy in spots today as well early.



Final piece of energy amongst this trough complex to the north

swings through tonight into the early portions of Sunday, with sfc

high pressure building in overhead. Cannot rule out a few snow

showers across the eastern UP, but nothing significant. Little break

in the action remains into Monday as heights begin to rise and more

zonal flow takes over temporarily. Thus, temperatures will begin to

rebound with 20s and 30s for highs on Monday.



Short wave within the more west to east flow may aid in an area

of precipitation on Tuesday, although uncertainty remains in

regards to the exact extent and type of precipitation. The bulk

of the precip will likely remain to the south associated with a

frontal boundary and moisture advection. GEFS and GEPS suggest

this as well, with light precip and the bulk of it to the south

whereas the EPS guidance (18Z) is a little more robust, but

still the bulk of the precip to the south. So, at this juncture,

could be some minor wintry precip on Tuesday with temperatures

hovering around freezing (few pieces of guidance show a wintry

mix in the vicinity as well).



Active weather likely continues during the latter portions of next

week with energy moving out of the Southwest and up into the OH

Valley/Great Lakes Region. This time precipitation likely remain on

the wet rather than white side as temperatures moderate well above

freezing for most.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 618 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026



Gusty NW winds will gradually subside through the day, though

some gusts approaching or even exceeding 30kts are possible

through the morning (namely CIU, PLN, and APN). Anticipating VFR

to hold somewhat steady through the morning hours, but lake

clouds are beginning to fester, along with some very light

snowfall in some places. Anticipating VFR VSBY to hold, but CIGs

may precariously hover on either side of 3,000ft... so marginal

MVFR will be possible through the day at all sites. The lone

exception is CIU, which may see some lake effect snow showers

through the day... and if any of these heavier snow showers

manages to pass over that particular TAF site, there is

potential for brief reductions to firm MVFR or marginal IFR.

Looking into tonight, winds turn N and generally trend light as

a disturbance passes through to the south. -SHSN may try to

carry on at CIU, and on top of that, some light snow may try to

intrude into northern lower. Impacts most likely at MBL and TVC.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ086>088-

     095>098.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JLD

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

739

ACUS11 KWNS 281135

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 281135

MNZ000-SDZ000-281400-



Mesoscale Discussion 0122

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0535 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota into parts of southwest

Minnesota



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 281135Z - 281400Z



SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow is moving slowly eastward

across northeast South Dakota and into southwest Minnesota.



DISCUSSION...A narrow band of around 1 inch+ per hour snowfall rates

is moving slowly eastward across northeast South Dakota and into

southwest Minnesota. Observations are somewhat limited within this

narrow band, but where the heaviest snow has been observed, less

than 1/4 mile visibility was observed in Redfield, SD. This band is

associated with strong frontogenesis centered between 850 and 700mb.

This band will drift slowly eastward through the morning and will be

mostly across southern Minnesota by mid-day. Frontogenesis strength

should maintain through the afternoon. However, drier air across

Minnesota may lessen rates somewhat as this band shifts east.



..Bentley.. 02/28/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...



LAT...LON   44679791 45199896 45649904 45839870 45889800 45149628

            44739493 44429434 44089429 43929455 43909523 44109605

            44679791