Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

050

ACUS01 KWNS 141959

SWODY1

SPC AC 141957



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Valid 142000Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH

DAKOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts

may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the

northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated

strong to severe gusts are also possible from the eastern Great

Basin into the central Rockies.



...20Z Update...

The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with

this update. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are still

expected along the cold front as it impinges on a destabilizing air

mass across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley tonight. Large hail

and locally severe gusts will be possible with any organized

clusters/supercells that evolve. Elsewhere, see MCDs 1944 and 1945

for details on the near-term severe risks in the Great Basin/central

Rockies and Upper Midwest.



..Weinman.. 08/14/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/



...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...

Recent surface analysis places a low over northwest ND, along a cold

front arcing from west-central Manitoba into south-central MT. A

surface trough also extends southward from this low to another weak

low in southeast CO. Ample low-level moisture exists across the

Plains east of this surface troughing, with mid 60s dewpoints

extending up through central and eastern ND. Moist southerly

low-level flow is forecast to persist throughout the day. This

low-level moisture advection combined with evapotranspiration and

low-level convergence near the front is expected to result in upper

60s to perhaps low 70s dewpoints ahead of the front across the

eastern Dakotas by early evening. Cooling mid-level temperatures are

expected across the region, which will combine with the abundant

low-level moisture to support strong to very strong buoyancy by the

late afternoon/early evening. Recent guidance suggests MLCAPE will

range from 3000 to 4000 J/kg across the eastern Dakotas, western MN,

and central/eastern NE by 00Z Friday.



Despite this robust buoyancy, warm low to mid-level temperatures and

related capping introduce uncertainty regarding convective

initiation, particularly with southward extent. Greatest potential

for convective initiation remains across eastern ND where glancing

large-scale ascent attendant to the substantial shortwave trough

moving through Saskatchewan will augment low-level convergence along

the southeastward-progressing cold front.



Any convection which can be sustained could pose a threat for large

to isolated very large hail given a favorable thermodynamic and

kinematic environment. Given the warm and dry low to mid-levels,

strong downdrafts are possible as well. Upscale growth into clusters

along the front is possible, and some damaging gusts could occur

with these storms as well. Inhibition will quickly increase with

eastward extent across MN as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer

occurs, limiting the eastward extent of the severe threat.



Additionally, the low-level jet will likely weaken throughout the

day but then strengthen again later this evening from western KS

into western IA. Associated warm-air advection could result in

isolated elevated convection across central MN. Most of these storms

should be sub-severe, but a few instances of hail are possible.



...Central High Plains/Central Plains...

Scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop across the central

Rockies this afternoon before the spreading eastward/southeastward

into the central High Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer and high

cloud bases will support strong gusts with this activity as it moves

across central High Plains. As this convection spreads eastward and

encounters greater instability along/east of a surface lee trough,

it may reintensify, with the potential for

severe gusts continuing into central NE. The lack of stronger

forcing aloft and modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall

severe threat with southward extent.



...Eastern Great Basin into central Rockies...

The shortwave trough currently moving into central CA will continue

eastward/southeastward throughout the day. Lift associated with this

wave will interact with the modest mid-level moisture across the

Great Basin to support scattered thunderstorm development. High

cloud bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer could support strong

downdrafts within the strongest storms, particularly across northern

UT where the best overlap between forcing, buoyancy, and modest

southwesterly flow aloft exists.



$$






                

                        

890

ACUS02 KWNS 141733

SWODY2

SPC AC 141731



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL

WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms are likely over parts of the northern Plains

and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.



...Synopsis...

A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across the

northern Plains on Friday along the northern periphery of a broad

mid-level ridge. Within this flow, a weak mid-level shortwave trough

(perhaps amplified by Day1/Thursday convection across the central

Rockies) will move across the northern Plains and into the Upper

Midwest. This feature may be a focus for severe storms on Friday

afternoon/evening. Another weak mid-level shortwave trough is

forecast to traverse the central Rockies with associated ascent

overspreading the central/northern High Plains. At the surface, weak

lee troughing will be present across the central/northern High

Plains with a front extending northeast across the northern Plains

and into the Upper Midwest.



...Upper Midwest...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop south of a

stationary front across the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon. The

combination of ascent associated with a passing weak mid-level

shortwave trough and strengthening isentropic ascent as the

low-level jet strengthens, may provide ample lift for scattered

thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several CAMS are in

relatively good agreement for convective initiation across eastern

Minnesota with the potential for upscale growth into a MCS across

Wisconsin late Friday evening. Have introduced a Slight Risk across

this region for an initial large hail threat, followed by an

increasing severe wind threat if storms grow upscale. However, this

area may need to be moved or enlarged in later outlooks due to the

inherent lack of predictability within a low-amplitude pattern. Some

of this unpredictability can be seen by relative outliers (HRRR and

MPAS) which seems to stem from difference in convective evolution on

Day 1/Thursday across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains

tonight.



...Central/Northern High Plains into the northern Plains...

Another weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the

Rockies on Friday and eventually overspread the northern Plains by

Friday evening. Moderate to strong instability and moderate shear

along the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level westerlies

may result severe storms. Large hail would be possible in the

initial, cellular stages (isolated severe wind across the NE

Panhandle where a hot/well-mixed environment will be present),

before an increasing severe wind threat may develop by later in the

evening across South Dakota. If this MCS can maintain itself far

enough east during the evening, the strengthening low-level jet

across central and eastern South Dakota could maintain this MCS with

some isolated severe wind threat into the early morning hours on

Saturday across eastern South Dakota and perhaps far western

Minnesota and northwest Iowa.



..Bentley.. 08/14/2025



$$






                

                        

705

NWUS53 KAPX 130129

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

929 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0830 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 NNW Bay Mills         46.48N 84.63W

08/12/2025  M54 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gust report

            from 4 NNW Bay Mills. Marine T-storm wind

            gust at Buoy station PTIM4 Point Iroquois,

            MI.





&&



$$












                

                        

233

FXUS63 KAPX 141855

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

246 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mainly dry through the end of the week and seasonably warm.



- Thunderstorms expected on Saturday with a marginal to slight

  chance (5-15%) for heavy/excessive rainfall, best potential across

  northwest lower into portions of eastern upper.



- Showers and thunderstorms possible at times, mainly early next week

  across northern MI.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Sfc high pressure slides off the east coast on Friday, but will have

enough of an influence to keep the region mostly to all dry. Little

short wave aloft swings through early to midday, with hints in

guidance of a little bit of decaying convective debris/clouds moving

in from the Upper Midwest early on Friday. Consequently, cannot

completely rule out an iso sprinkle as well. Non impactful

nonetheless and will not include in weather grids right now. Winds

will shift to the south as sfc high moves off to the east with

warmer temperatures on Friday. Relatively deep mixing will foster

low level drying during the afternoon hours, leading to low humidity

values especially for this time of year, aiding credence to dry

conditions prevailing most locations. Sfc high positioning will mean

light south to southeast low level flow tonight, which, in addition

to temps cooling to saturation, may result in patchy mist/fog across

northeast lower.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Day 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday):



Uncertainty still remains for this weekend in regards to convective

evolution. Actual frontal boundary will likely take some time to

move southward, likely Saturday evening and overnight. Prior to

that, couple rounds/clusters of convection will be possible (albeit

some uncertainty in dissipation) due to perturbations moving

within the northwest flow aloft, Most of guidance has semblance

of this convectively agitated feature, but with varying degrees

of north to south extent, and forward translation speed. Thus,

hard to pinpoint an area of heavy rain based on this, or if the

timing is correct for a decent rain event. Nevertheless, at this

time, most ENS guidance suggests northwest lower into eastern

upper will be favored for heavy/excessive rainfall (coinciding

with WPC`s 5-15% risk) which is also the location with the best

combination of vertically integrated moisture/instability and

thus most efficient rainfall. All this to say that there will be

the potential for locally heavy rainfall Saturday and Saturday

night. Rough educated guess at evolution at this time on

Saturday: Decaying convection to the northwest very late Friday

into early Saturday moves into our region with a few areas of

heavy/efficient rainfall possible. Further development on

Saturday and Saturday night as frontal boundary works from north

to south with locally heavy rainfall the main concern (as

hinted at in some guidance), and perhaps a few robust storms.

Another likely scenario suggests a potent MCS across WI dives

south and east later Friday into Saturday, missing much of the

area and robbing some moisture/instability from N MI, with much

less storm coverage overall. We`ll have to fine tune the details

in the coming shifts (lots of convection yet to develop on

Friday and potentially impact the pattern) and nudge the

forecast in one of these directions. Will hedge more towards the

former scenario at this time with scattered thunderstorms and

locally heavy rainfall possible.



Deep moisture and marginal shear will likely mute the severe

potential to some extent, but there may still be a window of

opportunity for a least a couple of strong storms given the

instability and marginal shear (25-30KTs bulk/effective sfc-6km), in

addition to forcing along the frontal boundary likely later

Saturday. Will be a timing issue in that regard (enough instability

remains while the forcing arrives), but for now SPC outlook keeps

the area in general thunder, so locally heavy rain will be the main

concern at this time.



Could still see a few showers/storms linger on Sunday, but looks

like the boundary pushes southward and washes out some of the

moisture/instability and best lift, and thus will be quieter during

the daytime hours, and cooler most areas.



Days 4-5 (Monday - Tuesday):



Ridging continues to expand across the nation, centering out west

across the Desert SW and building northward into portions of Canada.

Northern MI remains in a battle ground of better instability and

moisture to the southwest and drier air to the north/northeast as

sfc high pressure impinges from the north. There is some signal for

an influx of that moisture early next week though. Thus,

shower/storm threat will be possible during the Monday to Tuesday

time frame, but to the spatial extent is to be determined by the

overall pattern aloft (how much moisture can intrude into northern

lower) and the subtleties within the mesoscale regime upstream. As

of now, best potential looks to be later Monday into Tuesday, and

probably better potential the farther south one goes, but that is

subject to change because of the aforementioned reasons. For what it

is worth, WPC has our entire county warning area in a marginal risk

(5% or greater) for excessive rainfall from Monday morning to

Tuesday morning.



Days 6-7 (Wednesday - Thursday)



Not too much change in the pattern during the middle portions of

next week with ridging dominating and elongating across Upper

Midwest and adjacent Canada. Overall trend is a decrease in moisture

and thus lowering precipitation chances, at least at this time with

seasonable temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Low level SCT-BKN CU clouds will remain through the late

afternoon hours for some terminals, diminishing this evening.

Otherwise, SCT high clouds will be possible late tonight into

Friday with southeast winds this afternoon becoming more south

to eventually southwest on Friday. Small chance for BR to

develop tonight, mainly for APN, but not confident in that

potential. Outside of a rogue, low probability sprinkle from the

developing cumulus, dry conditions through this TAF cycle.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JLD

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...JLD






                

                        

482

ACUS11 KWNS 141941

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 141940

WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-142215-



Mesoscale Discussion 1945

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0240 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025



Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Nevada into central

and northern Utah...southeastern Idaho...and southwestern into

central Wyoming



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 141940Z - 142215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to potentially

severe wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening hours.



DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are developing atop a dry

boundary layer, where 40-50 T/Td spreads are already in place. RAP

forecast soundings, and the DPG 18Z observed sounding, all depict

inverted-v profiles extending up to 500 mb, with 20-40 kts of

southwesterly flow constrained to the buoyant/cloud-bearing layer.

Given 0-3 km lapse rates already exceeding 9 C/km in spots,

conditions are favorable for fast-moving thunderstorms capable of

producing dry downbursts, with strong erratic wind gusts possible. A

few of these gusts may exceed 50 kts. However, the overall severe

risk should remain widely scattered at best, so a Severe

Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.



..Squitieri/Mosier.. 08/14/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...



LAT...LON   41061505 42221408 43101190 43390988 42780847 42030786

            41330795 40800836 40350875 39760983 39301126 39071219

            39101288 39331355 39541411 39781450 40131495 41061505



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH








                

                        

522

WGUS53 KAPX 090003

FFWAPX

MIC129-090315-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0005.250809T0003Z-250809T0315Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

803 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025



The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a



* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Northwestern Ogemaw County in northern Michigan...



* Until 1115 PM EDT.



* At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing

  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain

  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are

  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected

  to begin shortly.



  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.



  SOURCE...Radar.



  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban

           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as

           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.



* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Rose City, Rose Township and Clear Lake.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.



In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.



&&



LAT...LON 4432 8408 4435 8425 4440 8427 4446 8426

      4448 8414 4448 8411 4435 8402



FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED



$$



JLD






                

                        

285

WGUS83 KAPX 111351 CCA

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

951 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



MIC089-111430-

/O.COR.KAPX.FA.Y.0016.250811T1340Z-250811T1430Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Leelanau MI-

951 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EDT THIS MORNING...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.



* WHERE...South Manitou Island.



* WHEN...Until 1030 AM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 940 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to

    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin

    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain

    have fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected

    over the area. This additional rain will result in minor

    flooding.

  - South Manitou Island.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.



&&



LAT...LON 4504 8614 4505 8613 4505 8612 4504 8608

      4501 8610 4499 8612 4501 8616





$$



MSB