215

ACUS01 KWNS 080517

SWODY1

SPC AC 080516



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1116 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe-storm potential appears negligible today through tonight.



...South FL...

With a broad upper trough remaining anchored across the East, an

embedded shortwave impulse will progress across the southern

Appalachians to coastal VA/NC by evening. A surface cold front will

sag south across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of

decaying morning convection, adequate boundary-layer heating will be

necessary for redevelopment of midday to afternoon storms along the

front. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence

attendant to the front, appears nebulous with the region

well-removed from influence of the VA/NC impulse. This combined with

persistently weak mid-level lapse rates should limit convective

vigor. But a locally strong gust or two might occur until the front

progresses into the FL Straits.



..Grams/Thornton.. 12/08/2025



$$






                

                        

033

ACUS02 KWNS 080502

SWODY2

SPC AC 080501



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday

through Tuesday night.



...Discussion...

While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at

least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a

downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern

mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this

period.  As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is

likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude

Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.



One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this

jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level

troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper

Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the

upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night.  It appears that this will

be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant

surface cold intrusion.



A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for

thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida

Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night.  The trailing flank of this

front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and

some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.

However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial

low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an

increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit

inland moistening.



..Kerr.. 12/08/2025



$$






                

                        

418

NWUS53 KAPX 062056

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

356 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0352 PM     Snow             2 W Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.42W

12/06/2025  M5.0 Inch        Chippewa           MI   Broadcast Media



            Facebook report of 5 inches of snow since

            6AM.





&&



$$



SJC








                

                        

691

FXUS63 KAPX 080455

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1155 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lingering lake effect snow showers this afternoon/evening,

  most notably across portions of Chippewa County.



- Cold overnight low temperatures tonight.



- Watching several potentially impactful snow events this week:

   * Late Monday - Tuesday

   * Tuesday night - Wednesday

   * Thursday night/Friday through the weekend



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over

the eastern two-thirds of the NOAM this afternoon. Embedded

shortwave trough axis is currently in the process of swinging

through locally with the last vestiges of synoptically aided snow

exiting stage right. While some lake induced snow showers will no

doubt continue into this evening an eventual down trend should

commence as ~1032mb sfc high pressure is progged to settle overhead

later tonight.



Forecast Details: Lake induced snow showers continue across portions

of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon. The

most notable activity across parts of western and central Chippewa

County where an additional localized 2-5"+ of accumulation remains

possible through this evening. Elsewhere, snow showers are expected

to wane in coverage into the evening, but light winds may yield land

breeze processes and potential for convergent snow bands/meso vortex

generation into tonight. Latest CAMs still in line with this

thought, and largely keeps much of this activity offshore of

northwest lower into tonight. That said, wouldn`t be all too

surprised if a few snow showers scrape parts of the immediate

northwest lower coast at times.



Otherwise, clouds largely clear across much of the area through the

night, again save for those nearest the Lake Michigan and Superior

shorelines. Aforementioned light winds, clear skies and at least a

minor fresh addition to our snow pack from last night/today should

all lead to excellent radiational cooling across much of the area.

Coldest temps expected to be inland where sub-zero temps appear to

be most likely. "Warmer" near the coasts and for those that hold on

to some cloud cover...likely in the single digits and low teens

above zero.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025



Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several

periods to watch for potentially impactful snow.



Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday): After a very cold start across much of

the area Monday morning, winds turn out of the south-southwest in

advance of of our next clipper set to arrive Monday night - Tuesday.

Latest trends continue to support increasing potential for SSW flow

lake effect to ramp up in advance of this event across Lake Michigan

Monday afternoon through Monday evening -- focusing on western Mack/

Chip counties. Later Monday night, synoptic support arrives from the

west, and while synoptically driven snow is expected to spread

across the entirely of the forecast area during this time, the

heaviest likely to remain across parts of the eastern U.P.,

stretching into the Lake Michigan shoreline counties of northwest

lower. Synoptic support exits through the day Tuesday with some

lingering lake effect into the evening. 24-30 hour (18z Mon. - 00z

Wed.) LREF & NBM snowfall probabilities certainly highest across

parts of western Chip/Mack with high (>70%) chances of 4"+ of new

snow. Medium probabilities (30-50%) of 6"+. While probs are lower

across far northwest lower, there`s still some 50-70% chances for

4"+ across parts of Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties.

Favored accums across the remainder of northern lower and eastern

upper in the 1-3" range. And lastly to toss another wrench in,

increasingly gusty winds are anticipated Monday night-Tuesday,

especially near the coasts (coinciding with the areas of greatest

snowfall) -- would expect considerable blowing/drifting and

significantly reduced visibility.



Day 4-7 (Tue night. - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday

night/Tuesday`s system, another more potent wave is expected to dig

across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday

night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across

the Upper Midwest and into central/southern MI. While it appears to

be a quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible with latest

probs for 4"+ across northern lower ranging from 40-65%+. Lower

probs north of the bridge. As noted by the prior forecaster, given

strong warm advection surge driving the bulk of this snowfall,

thermodynamics will continue to have to be monitored, especially the

farther south you go. Latest trends support all snow across APX`s

footprint, but the rain/snow mix (or all rain) line isn`t all that

far to the south. This may also result in lower snow ratios than

guidance is currently depicting (outside of the FGEN max). Periods

of lake effect snow showers a good bet on the backside of this

system Wednesday afternoon - Thursday night.



Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday

with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to

follow in its wake heading into the weekend. Longer range ENS trends

favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced

event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low

20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1146 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025



Lake effect clouds/snow showers will dwindle tonight. Still

brief MVFR restrictions possible at CIU for an hour or two.

Otherwise VFR tonight and Monday. Winds diminish tonight, with a

southerly breeze developing Monday.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ086-087.

MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for

     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

923

ACUS11 KWNS 080047

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 080046

FLZ000-080245-



Mesoscale Discussion 2253

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0646 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025



Areas affected...West-central Florida



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 080046Z - 080245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat

will continue this evening.



DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms continues to approach

the western coast of Florida this evening. Within this line, a few

stronger supercells have developed. The KTBW WSR-88D is sampling a

somewhat tight circulation from a supercell around 15 miles

northwest of Anna Maria Island. Expect this storm/circulation to

weaken as it moves into the cooler (upper 60sF) shelf-waters near

the coast. Even if it does persist, it will likely be undercut by

the southward moving outflow boundary within the hour which should

end the threat. Additional storms are developing southwest of this

circulation (farther away from the southward moving outflow) which

may maintain some threat for the west coast of Florida through the

evening.



Some surface based instability is present on the 00Z TBW RAOB

(~750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While weak mid-level lapse rates will

likely inhibit new deep convection inland, enough instability may

exist to support maintenance of the supercells that develop over the

Gulf. These stronger storms may pose an isolated damaging

wind/tornado threat this evening given the veered low-level wind

profile.



..Bentley/Guyer.. 12/08/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...



LAT...LON   27868294 28058225 28078163 27838124 27528121 27338156

            27178218 27058268 27318289 27868294



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH