Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

634

ACUS01 KWNS 011637

SWODY1

SPC AC 011635



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025



Valid 011630Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening

over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a

risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible,

particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of

thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for

severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri

tonight.



...OK-TX...

Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming

northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level

flow.  Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix

downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12

UTC area observed soundings.  Heating of an increasingly moist and

destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass

late this afternoon into the early evening.  Models show lower 60s

dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening.  Very strong and favorable

wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell

development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC).  Models differ on the

diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some

guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete

supercells across the southern Great Plains.  Very large hail and

tornadoes would be the primary hazards.  Enlarged and elongated

hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided

a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening.  Later

tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass

being maintained.  Of particular note is forcing for ascent

perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead

of the front.  A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development

capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity

not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period.



...Central Plains into Missouri...

Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast.  The cap is

forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable

moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early

evening.  At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop

near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK

vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward.  Moderate

to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective

bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated

threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter).  As the

southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs

will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to

support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength

of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb)

and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear

possible.  A line of convection should also erupt along the cold

front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward

into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with

the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable

for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+

mph gusts.



...Central Valley of California...

With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the

western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon

heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a

risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado

across portions of the Central Valley in CA.



..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025



$$






                

                        

668

ACUS02 KWNS 011734

SWODY2

SPC AC 011733



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE

MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night

across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North

Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and

strong tornadoes are possible.



...Synopsis...

A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will

accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes

on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and

primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low

moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm

front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow

for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far

north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by

Wednesday afternoon/evening.  A cold front attendant to the deep

surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to

severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at

daybreak.



...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the

Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity,

a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana

with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to

the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the

upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by

early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper

convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls

overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the

right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode.

Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s

dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect

into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment

for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective

shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for

tornadoes.



A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector

for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening

during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat

initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet

strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the

primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening

before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the

evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training

do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect

multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very

strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially

intense tornadoes are possible during this period.



...North Texas to the ArkLaTex...

Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells

will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest

Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging

wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move

east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may

eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red

River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex.



...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes...

A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could

materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on

Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very

strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for

all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend

heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central

Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and

especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some

of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of

northern Illinois.



..Bentley.. 04/01/2025



$$






                

                        

136

NWUS53 KAPX 010220

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1020 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0619 PM     Freezing Rain    1 WNW Forty Mile Point  45.49N 83.94W

03/31/2025  M0.76 Inch       Presque Isle       MI   Trained Spotter



            Radial ice measurement.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

463

FXUS63 KAPX 010846

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI

446 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Sunshine, above freezing temps, and mainly light winds to aid

  recovery efforts across northern Michigan today.



- Mixed Precipitation (snow, sleet and freezing rain) returns

  Wednesday. Moderate confidence in interior locations of

  northern lower seeing up to a tench of ice accumulation.



- Strong east winds Wednesday morning through late afternoon hours



- Warming trend will begin Wednesday night and last through the

  weekend



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Northern stream troughing will pivot across southeast Canada as

southern stream troughing will continue to slide over the east coast

today. Meanwhile, ridging will move over the Great Lakes/Ohio

Valley, providing subsidence aloft that will build surface high

pressure from Hudson Bay down into the Mid-Atlantic today into

tonight.



Forecast Details:



The much-needed break in precip-free weather will continue through

today with high pressure building across the region. Clear skies

overnight tonight will persist, leading to plentiful sunshine across

northern Michigan -- especially this morning into this afternoon.

While most high temperature forecasts are relatively unimpactful

this time of year, today`s will be of particular interest with

recovery efforts in full force across the area. Temperatures across

the most heavily-hit icing areas look to climb above freezing by

early afternoon, reaching into the mid 30s for highs for most

interior areas. The exception will be those closest to the Lake

Huron shoreline as east winds keep temperatures near freezing.

Regardless, aforementioned temperatures, sunshine, and high sun

angle will work to melt current icing from trees -- perhaps

substantially. If this materializes, it would help mitigate future

continued impacts to a degree as strong winds return later tonight

into Wednesday morning. Already damaged/compromised trees and limbs

may still pose issues with 25-40+ mph wind gusts moving in early

Wednesday morning. Our next round of winter precip arrives early

Wednesday morning as well, but will reserve discussion of the

incoming system for the long term section.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 427 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



Forecast Pattern... Precipitation will spread across northern MI

Wednesday morning as a lee side surface low races towards the Great

Lakes from CO. Ample Pacific moisture will reside over the northern

Rockies and Plains (thanks to a large upper low that finally

moved onshore from the Pac NW). As the precip shield moves over

MI early Wednesday, most places will initially see snow. Snow

amounts should remain below an inch for NW lower, but NE lower

and eastern upper could see amounts up to 3 inches. This is due

to a transition to freezing rain over NW lower around mid

morning (a few hours earlier than NE lower). Freezing rain will

last through the afternoon hours, resulting in anywhere from a

glaze to a tenth of an inch over much of interior northern

lower. An embedded thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out,

however chances are low. Strong east winds will be seen over

most of northern MI during this time as well, with sustained

winds up to 20 mph. Gusts will likely reach 25 to 30 mph.

Surface temperatures will start to warm from south to north

Wednesday afternoon, with most surface temperatures over

northern lower reaching above freezing by Wednesday evening. The

warming trend will continue through early Thursday morning.



Warm temperatures will generally persist through the weekend

with quiet weather through Saturday.



Forecast Details... Snow - There is moderate confidence in snow

amount forecasts. The ingredients will be present for snow with

the onset of the precip shield, however the timing of the warm

nose reaching northern lower will dictate how much precipitation

will fall in snow. Currently, high res guidance shows some

uncertainty in the timing of this; with some depicting a

vertical profile all below freezing through noon for NE lower

and some bringing the warm nose in by mid morning. Strong east

to southeast winds over northern Lk Huron combined with colder

850 mb temps will also lead to some lake enhancement for the

north Lk Huron coastline of eastern upper. This could increase

forecasted amounts by a few inches.



Freezing Rain - The uncertainty associated with the timing of

the warm nose will also play into ice accumulations. There is

higher confidence for ice accumulations over areas west of I-75

and south of M-72, as the precip shield and warm nose will

arrive here first while we reach our morning low temps (which

will be below freezing). The uncertainty in the actual amounts

here lies in how long surface temperatures will remain in the

low 30s. The trend will be to warm throughout the day, reaching

highs in the 40s and 50s later Wednesday evening and night, A

1036 mb high over eastern Ontario CAN will help reinforce cooler

surface temperatures, however there is a question on if that

will overcome other airmass modifications for the southern parts

of NW lower. Due to this, the highest hills will have some of

the best chances with remaining cold enough for ice

accumulations (high terrain in Wexford, Grand Traverse,

Missaukee, and Kalkaska). At this time, forecasted ice amounts

remain around a glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice. The highest

possible ice amounts could reach a quarter of an inch on some

places.



Winds - higher confidence exists in strong east winds being seen

for much of Wednesday morning and afternoon. A ~13 mb surface

gradient will be seen over the peninsula as the 985mb surface

cyclone moves over MN/WI. Gusts could be a little more sporadic,

but the max could reach up to 35 mph at times. Depending on how

much ice melts today, winds could result in some of the largest

impacts Wednesday as trees may be more vulnerable to these

strong winds. Winds will veer to the south and then west by

Thursday morning and becoming gusty. Winds will finally diminish

Thursday evening and night.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025



Mainly clear skies overnight. Clouds start to increase from the

sw late Tuesday, mostly mid clouds initially. MBL perhaps drops

toward a 5k ft cig by the end of the forecast. Worse conditions,

including wintry precip, looms just beyond this forecast. Note

that APN and PLN continue to be impacted by power outages.



Light winds into Tuesday morning. A light east breeze by late in

the day.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for

     LHZ347-348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for

     LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DJC

LONG TERM...ELD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

297

ACUS11 KWNS 312328

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 312327

VAZ000-NCZ000-010100-



Mesoscale Discussion 0334

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0627 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025



Areas affected...Portions of eastern North Carolina and far

southeastern Virginia



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90...



Valid 312327Z - 010100Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 90

continues.



SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph)

continues to increase across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch

90.



DISCUSSION...Radar data from KRAX depicts recent intensification of

a north/south-oriented line segment tracking east-northeastward at

around 30 kt. The inflow for these storms is characterized by

middle/upper 70s temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints beneath modest

midlevel lapse rates (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). This, combined with

around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per RAX VWP data), should support a

continued risk of severe wind gusts (generally around 60 mph), given

the linear mode/established cold pool. Trends are also being

monitored for a possible downstream watch into southeastern

Virginia.



..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...



LAT...LON   35577870 36317851 36877802 36977757 36917713 36697684

            35857714 35417769 35407835 35577870



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN








                

                        

406

WGUS43 KAPX 011416

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1016 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and

increased in duration for the following rivers in Michigan...



  Manistee River near Sherman affecting Wexford County.



For the Manistee River...including Sherman...Moderate flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued this evening at 1030 PM EDT.



&&



MIC165-020230-

/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

/SHRM4.2.ER.250330T1715Z.250402T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/

1016 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is

  forecast.



* WHERE...Manistee River near Sherman.



* WHEN...Until further notice.



* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Flooding of property and homes adjacent to

  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and

  Chippewa Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N11 Road

  between W14 Road and W16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 9:45 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 16.0 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.

  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours

    ending at 9:45 AM EDT Tuesday was 16.0 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise to 16.1 feet this evening. It

    will then fall Thursday evening. It will rise to 16.0 feet

    Friday evening. It will then fall again but remain above

    flood stage.

  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    16.0 feet on 03/18/1990.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4437 8573 4443 8577 4447 8564 4442 8561





$$



PBB






                

                        

438

WGUS83 KAPX 011417

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1017 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in

Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



For the Rifle River...including Sterling...Minor flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued this evening at 1030 PM EDT.



&&



MIC011-020230-

/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250406T1000Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.250330T2307Z.250401T0315Z.250406T0400Z.NO/

1017 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025



...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.



* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.



* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.



* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, High water begins to impact campground at

  White`s Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 9:30 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.5 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours

    ending at 9:30 AM EDT Tuesday was 9.2 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late

    tomorrow morning to 5.2 feet Thursday morning. It will then

    rise above flood stage late Thursday evening to 8.1 feet

    Friday evening. It will fall below flood stage again early

    Sunday morning.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    8.5 feet on 03/14/2006.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



PBB