175

ACUS01 KWNS 080036

SWODY1

SPC AC 080035



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0735 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Valid 080100Z - 081200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are not expected through tonight.



...MT/WY...



Forcing for ascent attendant to a short-wave trough moving southeast

through the region has fostered widely scattered thunderstorms from

portions of northwest MT into central WY as of 00z. Moisture is

limited, but the presence of steep lapse rates (ref. 00z RIW

sounding) may be sufficient to support briefly strong storms capable

of gusty winds and/or small hail for the next couple of hours.



...Carolinas...



A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts

of southern and central NC along a cold front settling south through

the area. Weakening, low-level lapse rates and resultant instability

should limit any severe-weather threat as the convection continues

east tonight.



...LA...



A few thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity of the

surface front in far southeast LA amidst a moist low-level air mass.

The 00z LIX sounding located to the immediate north of the front

sampled MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg for parcels lifted from around 1

KM. Moreover, deep-layer shear remains strong (effective bulk shear

of 60 kt), which would conditionally support some storm

organization. Current thinking is that nebulous forcing for ascent

and poor low/mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit updraft vigor

in an otherwise seemingly favorable, severe-storm environment. As

such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included for this

forecast.



...Southern AZ/NM into TX...



Isolated thunderstorms remain possible overnight from southern parts

of AZ and NM into western and southern TX, near and ahead of a

mid-level low drifting east across Sonora and Chihuahua, Mexico.



..Mead.. 05/08/2026



$$






                

                        

077

ACUS02 KWNS 071727

SWODY2

SPC AC 071725



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND

GULF COAST STATES...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday

through Friday night from parts of Oklahoma/Texas into the Ozarks,

lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast states. Occasional large

hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.



...Synopsis...

With an upper low forecast to remain over Hudson Bay, a

mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward Friday

across much of the northern/central Plains into the upper/mid MS

Valley. Shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward

across the southern Plains into the Ozarks ahead of a

southeastward-moving surface cold front. An initially separate

mid-level low over northern Mexico Friday morning should devlove

into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into

TX through Friday evening. Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to

low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the

period across TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast

states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low

forecast to develop over northwest TX by early Friday evening. A

surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across

west TX towards the Big Bend is forecast to gradually sharpen

through the day.



...Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into Missouri/Arkansas...

Even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of

the cold front by Friday afternoon, the presence of modestly

steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should

contribute to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in a narrow corridor

along/near the front. Large-scale ascent associated with the

mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of

isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern OK into

the MO Ozarks by late Friday afternoon. With moderate to locally

strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest

cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds

through Friday evening as they track east-southeastward before

eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Confidence in

a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low

for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the

limited moisture/instability forecast.



...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

Thunderstorms should form by late Friday afternoon/early evening

across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast Mexico, as

large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough

overspreads this area. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in

place across south-central TX along/south of a warm front. While

some MLCIN will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that

moderate to locally strong MUCAPE coupled with around 40-50 kt of

deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the

potential for supercells. While some uncertainty remains regarding

how may supercells may develop eastward from Mexico into

south-central TX, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5%

hail/wind probabilities and a Marginal Risk.



Large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central

TX in between the surface cold front in OK and the upper low/trough

in northern Mexico. Daytime heating should help erode MLCIN

along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central

TX, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas.

Still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained

surface-based convection will occur Friday afternoon/evening

along/east of the dryline in TX. Even so, have expanded the Marginal

Risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if

convection initiates.



Farther east into the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states, some

guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day

mainly along/north of the remnant front. This activity will likely

be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level

warm advection. Sufficient MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer shear may

support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated

severe hail and occasional damaging winds. Other strong to severe

convection may form Friday afternoon along the Atlantic Coast sea

breeze in northeast/east-central FL. The potential for additional

robust convection Friday night into early Saturday morning across

the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley remains unclear. But, some chance

for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and

strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an

isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight

hours.



..Gleason.. 05/07/2026



$$






                

                        

439

NWUS53 KAPX 042126

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

526 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0522 PM     Wildfire         4 SE Red Oak            44.66N 84.23W

05/04/2026                   Oscoda             MI   Park/Forest Srvc



            Wildfire in the Camp 10 Road area between

            Luzerne and Mio. Law enforcement has issued

            evacuation orders on Camp 10 Road.





&&



$$



HAD








                

                        

933

FXUS63 KAPX 080317

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1117 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Frost/freeze concerns continue (though probably not Friday

night) with persistent cool weather



- Precip chances this weekend, especially Saturday



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026



Upper low will continue to spin over the ne Canada/Hudson Bay region

into the middle of next week. Cool nw flow aloft will continue into

the northern lakes, along with suppressed heights. Cooler than

normal wx will persist for most of the next week...though maybe

there are signs of improvement after that.



Any breaks in the morning cloud cover have filled in with

cu/stratocu, and skies are overcast across most of northern MI.

There is a wedge of drier air/partial clearing working into MBL and

the far sw. Elsewhere, some sprinkles and light rain showers have

sprouted, especially over eastern upper and far ne lower MI. For the

broader Straits region, a chance of showers will linger all the way

into tonight. But elsewhere, precip chances should end with loss of

heating this evening.



Northern lower MI at least will also see partial clearing after loss

of heating. With lighter winds tonight, that sets us up well for

another chilly night. Min temps are expect to be roughly 2-3f warmer

than last night, and so a mix of frost advisories (far se, part of

nw lower MI) and freeze warnings (interior) have been issued.



Low level sw return flow will aid in bringing somewhat warmer (but

more moist) air northward, beginning Friday. Small/sporadic precip

chances begin Friday evening, with the best chance for Saturday as a

stronger shortwave pivots into the northern lakes. Likely pops in

some areas, especially east of I-75 in both peninsulas. Will also

mention a slight chance for thunder in ne lower MI Sat afternoon,

where SbCape values may approach 500j/kg.



Cold front goes thru late Saturday, and we return to below-normal

temps for several days. After highs reach low 50s (Soo) to mid 60s

(Standish) Saturday, we slip back to the upper 40s to mid 50s for

highs Sunday/Monday, with a slow rebound after that. Sat-Sun-Mon

nights all look to have a frost threat for at least part of

northern lower MI.



There is a small chance for some showers Sunday-Monday, without a

ton of moisture but under sharp upper troffing. A better chance

looks to push in Tuesday, as a more well-defined wave slides se into

the region.



The operational 12Z ECMWF is at least on board with the 00Z run, in

finally allowing the upper flow to get more progressive by later

next week. This would offer up a welcome opportunity for temps to

get closer to normal for more than a day at a time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1116 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026



VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan through the

end of the period. Mid/high cloud will continue to slide from west

to east across the area tonight with at least some clearing expected

on Friday. Weak and variable to calm winds tonight will increase out

of the west Friday morning. Sustained wind speeds around 10 kts with

gusts to 15-25 kts are expected through the afternoon. Winds look to

shift to east-southeast at APN Friday afternoon as lake breeze

formation pushes inland.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ016>018-022>024-

     027>030-032>036.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for MIZ020-021-025-026-

     031-041-042-098-099.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JZ

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

923

ACUS11 KWNS 071942

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 071942

NCZ000-SCZ000-072145-



Mesoscale Discussion 0668

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0242 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026



Areas affected...portions of the Carolina Piedmont



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 071942Z - 072145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated

gusty winds and small hail to portions of the Carolina Piedmont this

afternoon/evening.



DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front extending

westward from offshore of the Outer Banks to a weak surface low

analyzed northeast of Asheville, NC, before trailing southward into

central GA. Thunderstorm development is ongoing across portions of

western North Carolina into northwestern South Carolina along this

boundary where clearing cloud cover/precipitation have allowed

temperatures to climb into the 70s F. Along with dewpoints in the

low-60s F range, this is supporting weak buoyancy of around 250-500

J/kg MLCAPE (per latest mesoanalysis), with further destabilization

expected to increase instability to 500-1000 J/kg through the

afternoon.



Expectation is for isolated thunderstorms to develop southeastward

ahead of the advancing surface cold front through this

afternoon/evening. While poor mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by

the 12z GSO/RNK observed soundings) are expected to limit available

buoyancy, strong westerly flow aloft is contributing to 60+ kts of

effective bulk shear across the region that will help to support

organization of any stronger updrafts that can develop. Localized

gusty winds (mainly in the 40-50 mph range) and small hail may be

possible with any stronger updrafts that become more organized given

the strong deep-layer flow fields; however, severe potential is

expected to remain limited owing to marginal thermodynamic profiles.

Thus, watch issuance is not anticipated.



..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/07/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...



LAT...LON   36048130 36068055 35878003 35597936 35347877 35087834

            34857817 34577829 34297875 34107946 34078022 34138091

            34288159 34608225 35048224 35608179 36048130



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH








                

                        

006

WGUS83 KAPX 072359

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

759 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026



MIC031-047-080009-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260508T0000Z/

/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Cheboygan MI-Emmet MI-

759 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026



...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



The Flood Warning will expire at 8 PM EDT this evening for a portion

of northern Michigan, including the following areas, Cheboygan and

Emmet.



While flooding will continue across some impacted areas for a length

of time, notable rises in flood waters are not expected in the

foreseeable future with an anticipated dry stretch of weather ahead

through the beginning of the month. Therefore, the flood warning

will be allowed to expire. Please exercise caution across remaining

flooded areas as water levels gradually recede.



&&



LAT...LON 4543 8494 4549 8497 4549 8505 4558 8509

      4565 8485 4564 8468 4559 8461 4559 8458

      4563 8459 4564 8457 4560 8437 4553 8425

      4520 8425 4521 8473 4529 8473 4529 8486

      4535 8490 4537 8488 4540 8491 4543 8491





$$



Cornish