498

ACUS01 KWNS 011957

SWODY1

SPC AC 011956



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0256 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026



Valid 012000Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat

are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this

afternoon into evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be

possible in parts of New Mexico, southeast Arizona, and far West

Texas.



...20Z Update...

The MRGL Risk/5-percent wind probabilities were expanded westward

into parts of central MS, where a very warm and moist PBL (upper 70s

dewpoints) are contributing to moderate-strong surface-based

buoyancy. Any thunderstorm clusters that evolve along/ahead of the

approaching cold front will pose a risk of locally damaging wind

gusts later this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, the forecast

remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made.



..Weinman.. 08/01/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026/



..OH and TN Valleys...

Recent satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave trough

moving through the Mid MS Valley. Surface analysis shows an occluded

surface low over central IL beneath the shortwave. Expectation is

for this cyclone to drift slowly east-southeastward throughout the

day, with the surface low gradually filling. As this low fills, the

triple point low, currently near the IL/IN/KY border intersection,

will become more prominent through the afternoon before it too

occludes.



Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from eastern

IN/western OH through eastern TN into AL, along the eastern

periphery of an arcing warm conveyor. These showers and

thunderstorms should continue northeastward/eastward as the entire

system drifts east-southeastward, with some modest moisture

advection anticipated throughout the warm sector. This should allow

the warm sector to at least moderately destabilize, but persistent

cloudiness will limit heating, likely tempering the overall

buoyancy. Expectation is for more modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE

around 500 to 1000 J/kg) across IN and OH, with greater buoyancy

(i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg) farther south across central KY and

Middle TN. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead

of the cold front as it moves through this destabilized and buoyant

airmass.



Moderate mid-level flow throughout the base of the Mid MS Valley

shortwave trough will spread eastward across KY and TN, supporting

effective shear around 30 to 35 kt across KY. Reduced vertical shear

is expected farther north across the OH Valley (due to weaker

mid-level flow) and farther south across TN Valley (due to more

westerly low-level flow). Given these kinematic conditions, a

predominantly multicellular mode is favored, although a few

supercells appear possible from southeast IN/southwest OH through

central KY. Damaging wind gusts will be the most prominent hazard,

but a tornado or two is also possible, particularly within the

corridor from far southeast IN through far north-central KY and far

southwest OH. Here, some modestly increased low-level shear is

possible near the triple point low as it moves through.



...Eastern AZ through NM into west TX...

Moderate mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm

development across the higher terrain from western AZ through

central/northeast NM. Relatively strong northerly winds aloft will

aid storm organization/clustering as storms spread

south-southeastward into the deeply mixed boundary-layer across the

lower elevations. Outflow-dominant storm structures will result in

strong cold pools capable of isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

Resulting forward-propagating lines could reach as far

south/southeast as Far West TX by later this evening.



$$






                

                        

464

ACUS02 KWNS 011727

SWODY2

SPC AC 011725



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER

OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A

PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the

upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday

afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across

parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday

night.



...Synopsis...

Weak troughing will bring modest flow and broad ascent across much

of the eastern US. Enhanced westerly flow will overspread the

northern periphery of the western ridge across the Northern Rockies

as a more progressive mid-level low moves across the Canadian

Prairies.



At the surface, an occluding surface low will shift northeast across

the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, with a trailing cold front

slowly shifting east across the Ohio Valley into the Gulf States. A

cold front will shift across portions of the Northern Rockies into

the northern Plains.



...Upper Ohio Valley into the Southeast...

Broad forcing for ascent within the region of the eastward sagging

cold front will produce widely scattered thunderstorm activity

across much of the region from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast.

Activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the

northern Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Broken mid-level cloud

cover behind the morning convection should allow for sufficient

heating/destabilization and moderate instability ahead of the cold

front by the afternoon. This in combination with deep layer shear

around 25-35 kts will support isolated strong storms capable of

damaging wind where better heating can occur.



...Northern Plains...

A conditional severe threat will extend across potions of North

Dakota into northern Minnesota. Within this region, the environment

will be favorable for severe storms, with moderate to strong

instability and strong deep layer shear. However, weak forcing for

ascent and strong capping at the base of the EML during the daytime

heating period may limit development until mid-level cooling and

ascent from the upper wave moves in late. Nonetheless, should a cell

or two develop the environment would support potential for large

hail and damaging wind. It appears most likely that convection

develops along the cold front toward the end of the D2 period, with

potential for large hail and damaging wind.



..Thornton.. 08/01/2026



$$






                

                        

385

NWUS53 KAPX 010146

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

946 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0940 PM     Rain             1 W Ossineke            44.91N 83.45W

07/31/2026  M2.43 Inch       Alpena             MI   Trained Spotter



            9 hour total.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

105

FXUS63 KAPX 011804

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

204 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Shower threat ends Sunday morning



- Dry weather kicks off next work week, followed by the return of

rain chances by mid-week



- Seasonable temperatures expected through the period



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Mid level troughing working slowly east across the northern Great

Lakes early this afternoon...anchored by closed mid level

circulation and attendant surface low sliding across southern

Illinois. Juxtaposition of best forcing and deep layer moisture

convergence tied to that anchor point, bringing much more organized

and substantial rains to the lower Lakes and Ohio Valley. Forcing and

moisture convergence not nearly on the same scale in our neck of the

woods, keeping our showers much less organized and intense. Plenty

of clouds however, helping keep our temperatures a bit on the cool

side of specific normal values....with current reading in the 60s to

low/mid 70s.



Nearly complete detachment of southern portion of mid level

troughing expected as we head into early next week (broad mid level

circulation looks to center over the Tennessee Valley) as our

overhead flow regime remaining quite progressive through the period.

This will keep any threat for our typical early August dog days of

summer heat locked up well to our west and south. While the vast

majority of the extended looks dry, passing waves within that

progressive flow pattern will bring periodic chances for additional

showers at times.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Shower evolution through Sunday morning...followed by temperature

trends and addressing any additional shower threat through the

remainder of the period.



Details:



Still expecting some passing showers this afternoon into Sunday

morning (perhaps a rumble of thunder or two into early this evening

along differential heating boundaries) with passing mid level

troughing and weak inverted surface trough. Footprint of showers

expected to decrease from northwest to southeast later tonight into

Sunday morning, with the threat for showers largely over with by the

afternoon. Large area of Canada originated high pressure builds into

the Northwoods Sunday night, slowly working across the region Monday

and Tuesday. This sets up what should be some ideal summer weather,

with sun-filled skies, high temperatures in the 70s to middle 80s

(warmest Tuesday), and low humidity.



Falling mid-level heights and attendant surface trough/cold front

set to arrive later Tuesday night into Wednesday, likely drumming up

some chances for showers and storms in the process. Disconnect

between this forcing and deepest tropical moisture plume to our

south and east should prevent this from becoming a more widespread

and significant rain event.



Trends support broad long-wave troughing dominating our weather the

second half of the week. Again, this looks to keep any heat well

removed from our region. Periodic waves within relative fast flow

aloft will bring at least the threat for additional shower chances

at times, but not seeing any real evidence of any appreciable

widespread heavy rain events as low level streamline wind analysis

suggests deepest tropical moisture axis remaining off to our east

where ridge/trough interface will reside.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026



Mix of VFR and MVFR mainly this early afternoon. Expect more of

the same through the rest of this afternoon. Showers bubbling up

currently (18Z) near KAPN and KPLN, which are the most likely

locations for any VCTS through the afternoon, and to a lesser

extent KCIU. Although small, TSRA chances remain into the

evening and early overnight hours, with showers as well. CIGs

decrease to MVFR and potentially IFR for a period later tonight,

along with BR in spots. Clearing expected on Sunday. Winds

generally light from the north to northeast.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MSB

AVIATION...JLD






                

                        

531

ACUS11 KWNS 012001

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 012000

GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-012200-



Mesoscale Discussion 1818

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0300 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026



Areas affected...northern and central Alabama into northwest Georgia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 012000Z - 012200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a

trailing cold front late this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind

gusts may occur and a WW is possible.



DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed a band of

deepening cumulus and initial showers along a trailing cold

front/surface trough stretching from southern Middle TN into

northern AL/MS. South of the primary upper low over the Midwest,

synoptic ascent is rather modest, as is confluence with veered

low-level flow along the lagging surface front. Regardless,

continued heating approaching convective temperatures should erode

the very weak lingering inhibition, with the modest frontal forcing

supporting storm development late this afternoon. Despite poor

mid-level lapse rates, the very warm temperatures and dewpoints in

the mid to upper 70s F are supporting large buoyancy sufficient for

severe storms, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.



Most CAM guidance depicts one or more bands of storms developing

along the front, with 20-30 kt of effective shear supporting a few

organized lines/clusters. This would favor some risk for damaging

gusts given high PWATs and water loading of downdrafts. Severe risk

is expected to be focused with the more robust clusters across

north-central AL and eventually into GA and southeast TN this

evening. Given the potential for damaging gusts with these storms a

WW is possible this afternoon.



..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/01/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...



LAT...LON   32448675 32308798 32688864 32978862 33378857 33878830

            34568760 34758741 35048708 35258668 35398546 35358470

            35268453 35138436 34908438 34448458 33878486 33258530

            32818581 32558625 32448675



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH








                

                        

305

WGUS53 KAPX 312233

FFWAPX

MIC001-007-010130-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0022.260731T2233Z-260801T0130Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

633 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026



The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a



* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Northern Alcona County in northern Michigan...

  Southwestern Alpena County in northern Michigan...



* Until 930 PM EDT.



* At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing

  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain

  have fallen, with 2.22 inches reported near Ossineke with the

  previous round of storms. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2

  inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are

  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected

  to begin shortly.



  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.



  SOURCE...Radar.



  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban

           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as

           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.



* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Alpena, Ossineke, Hubbard Lake, Ossineke Township, Spruce, Spratt,

  Lost Lake Woods and Devils Lake.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.



Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law

enforcement and request they pass this information to the National

Weather Service when you can do so safely.



&&



LAT...LON 4508 8337 4501 8337 4498 8337 4496 8339

      4495 8339 4494 8337 4477 8336 4479 8381

      4504 8383



FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR



$$



FEF






                

                        

258

WGUS83 KAPX 012210

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

610 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026



MIC033-097-020015-

/O.CON.KAPX.FA.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260802T0015Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Chippewa MI-Mackinac MI-

610 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026



...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.



* WHERE...A portion of eastern upper Michigan, including the

  following counties, Chippewa and Mackinac.



* WHEN...Until 815 PM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 610 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to

    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin

    shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2.5 inches of

    rain have fallen. The heaviest rain has fallen in the

    Stalwart area, which is likely to see flooding.

  - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected

    over the area. This additional rain will result in minor

    flooding.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Pickford, Cedarville, Stalwart, Kelden, Munuscong, Hessel and

    Marquette Island.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



&&



LAT...LON 4618 8437 4620 8435 4624 8427 4638 8414

      4632 8411 4631 8412 4627 8412 4626 8410

      4624 8411 4619 8408 4616 8404 4611 8410

      4606 8411 4603 8415 4593 8419 4592 8431

      4590 8436 4592 8437 4593 8444 4600 8445





$$



JZ