Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

145

ACUS01 KWNS 111957

SWODY1

SPC AC 111955



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Valid 112000Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds

will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the

southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and

Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over

southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening.



...20Z Update...

The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only

appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe

probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability

persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal

low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal

thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form

due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the

CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and

severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance

consensus.



..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/



...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and

Mid-Atlantic...

Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively

enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar

mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the

mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and

southern Appalachians.  A developing thunderstorm cluster over the

Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later

today.  Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures

warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result

in a moderately unstable airmass.  Westerly low-level flow will

imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast.



Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a

weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward

extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic.



Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with

damaging gusts the primary severe hazard.  Visible-satellite imagery

shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east.  The airmass south of a

stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies

through mid afternoon.  Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS

time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across

north-central OK by 21-23 UTC.  A well-mixed boundary layer will

support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe

gusts with the more intense single and multicells.  Have expanded

the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe

threat across central OK.



...Southern Arizona...

With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak

easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran

Desert.  Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary

layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an

accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio.  Forecast

soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak

westerly surface flow.  Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and

inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively

cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores.  Severe gusts 60-80

mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts.  This activity will

likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster

during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe

gusts.  Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores.



$$






                

                        

094

ACUS02 KWNS 111736

SWODY2

SPC AC 111735



Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN

GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...



CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind

damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with

the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional

strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of

Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.



...Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia...

An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these

regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across

portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with

southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop

along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is

possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of

the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary

within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface

heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more

probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the

most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few

clusters will be capable of wind damage.



...Arizona...

Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level

easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim.

Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture

moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered

convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity

during the late afternoon and early evening.



...Upper Great Lakes...

Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will

support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave

trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of

35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level

heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to

uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze

boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The

environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a

tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any

upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they

form.



...Southern Plains into Southeast...

Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled

surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but

mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater

threat for damaging winds will be tied to where organized clusters

can form.



..Wendt.. 07/11/2026



$$






                

                        

832

NWUS53 KAPX 101349

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

949 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0828 AM     Rain             Vanderbilt              45.14N 84.66W

07/10/2026  M1.16 Inch       Otsego             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GW5777 VANDERBILT.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

476

FXUS63 KAPX 111917

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

317 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Some precipitation chances Sunday/Sunday night??



- Increasing heat to start the week...potentially very hot Tuesday.



- Increasing precipitation chances for the latter half of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern starting to amplify

as a burgeoning ridge expands northeastward from the southwestern

U.S...while -PNA troughing digs southward off the west coast.

Building ridge upstream has backed upper level winds northwesterly

across the Great Lakes...suppressing mid/high clouds farther south.

Small but well-defined vorticity center/mid level thermal trough

digging southeast to the east of Lake Superior...another PV anomaly

riding along the northern edge of the developing ridge across far

western South Dakota/Nebraska.  Pocket of drier air sitting over the

upper Lakes...though 1.50+ inch precipitable water values not far

away across Missouri/Illinois/Indiana/Ohio.  Not much low level flow

across the upper Lakes today with a ridge of high pressure extending

across the upper Midwest and into Ontario.  Stationary front runs

from the southern Plains east-northeast across Indiana/Ohio and off

the mid Atlantic coast.



Upstream ridge will continue to expand across the Plains this

weekend with rising heights across the Great Lakes.  594+dam 500mb

heights forecast to expand across Michigan Monday (+2 to +3 sigma

500mb height anomaly)...with an impressive ~600dam at the center of

the ridge over Minnesota.  Heights expected to start getting

suppressed across the region by Wednesday with an equally impressive

for mid July upper low developing over Quebec (-3 sigma height

anomaly).  This will edge stronger northwest flow aloft into

Michigan...and should take the edge off the early week heat.  Upper

Lakes will probably settle in between the upper low over Atlantic

Canada ridging to the west and south for the latter half of next

week.



Main issue for this week as far as hot weather potential goes (and

resultant precip chances) will be where the main convective corridor

sets up.  Some baroclinicity creeps in from the north as early as

Tuesday...with a slow moving/stationary boundary possibly draped

across the forecast area for midweek.  As mentioned above this

should knock temperatures back a bit with low level cold advection.

Boundary may linger in some for through the rest of the week...a

consequence of being stuck between two air masses.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Some precipitation chances Sunday/Sunday night??: Anticipate that

there will be convection in the vicinity of Lake Superior Sunday

morning within a zone of low/mid level warm advection along with a

pair of short wave troughs that will sweep across the lake in

northwest flow Sunday.  Lead short wave trough passes through

eastern Upper prior to sunrise...not sure if there won`t be at least

some scattered showers with it.  Trailing short wave trough drops

into Lake Superior/western Upper early Sunday afternoon...where

diurnal heating and increasing dew points expected to result in

MLCAPE of 1500+ J/kg across central Upper.  Combination of

increasing instability...passing short wave trough...and any

semblance of a Lake Superior breeze enough for chancy PoPs north of

the Bridge.  This short wave trough expected to move into northern

Lower by early evening...but minimal instability here so not

expecting this feature to kick anything off farther south. However...

with persistent warm advection and elevated instability across Upper

Michigan Sunday night expect a continued chance for thunderstorm

development into eastern Upper.  North to northwest steering flow

should push some of this into far northern Lower as well.



Increasing heat to start the week...potentially very hot Tuesday:

Temperatures will continue to be on the rise Sunday with highs

continuing to climb through the 80s. Monday may be one of those

days that starts with a bit more cloud cover (or even some

residual showers)...but more afternoon sun should get

temperatures going quickly so reasonably confident in most areas

away from the lake influence warming into the 90 to 95F range.

But Tuesday is the most intriguing day...as it probably has a

legit chance of some spots across northeast Lower breaking 100F

with downsloping westerly winds (could be a hot/breezy

afternoon). At the same time dew points may be substantially

lower than our last warm weather spell a couple of weeks ago.

This by itself could keep this as "just" a potential Heat

Advisory event despite warmer temperatures (current maximum heat

indices forecast for Tuesday are the same as the forecast

maximum temperatures). But a drier boundary layer and lack of Cu

development would help create a deeper mixed layer especially

with 850mb temperatures in the +24C vicinity. Bottom line is

that Tuesday will very likely be the warmest day of the summer

thus far. Still a chance for highs in the 90-95F range Wednesday

especially the farther south you go...then a bit cooler still

for Thursday/Friday (though probably still above normal

depending on cloud cover).



Forecast versus record highs for Monday/Tuesday are as follows:



KANJ: Mon 90/92 (2006)...Tue 89/92 (1983)

KGLR: Mon 91/92 (1995)...Tue 93/96 (1955)

KHTL: Mon 93/107 (1936)...Tue 95/101 (1936)

KTVC: Mon 89/100 (1936)...Tue 96/98 (1995)

KAPN: Mon 93/106 (1936)...Tue 98/102 (1983)

KPLN: Mon 87/94 (2005)...Tue 92/93 (1977)



A few records in the lower-mid 90s that could be in jeopardy...and a

few dust bowl era records that are going to be tougher to crack in

the "modern forested" northern Michigan (for lack of a better term).



Increasing precipitation chances for the latter half of the week:

Would like to think that as the heat breaks there should be

increasing thunderstorm chances starting about Wednesday or so.  But

there doesn`t appear to be much of an appetite for rain in the

forecast until around Friday.  So if the forecast is going to be

adjusted in the coming days it could be toward a higher rain threat

starting midweek.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026



VFR. Diurnal cumulus field will remain roughly 5,000ft this

afternoon before clearing tonight. Light north to northeast

winds this afternoon go calm tonight, turning south to southwest

Sunday... perhaps gusting over 15kts by late morning.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JPB

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

724

ACUS11 KWNS 112223

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 112223

NMZ000-120030-



Mesoscale Discussion 1593

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0523 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026



Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 112223Z - 120030Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts will exist

with ongoing storms this evening. The expected areal coverage of the

threat will remain too limited to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm

Watch consideration.



DISCUSSION...An ongoing band of thunderstorms from central San

Miguel into northwest Guadalupe Counties has recently shown some

signs of forward propagation with a radar-defined fine line

preceding the parent updrafts by 5-10 miles. The ambient inflow air

mass exhibits fairly large temperature-dewpoint spreads, resulting

in a well-mixed boundary layer featuring steep lapse rates. While

overall buoyancy is relatively meager, the presence of the steep

lapse rates may yield locally strong to severe wind gusts, as

depicted in some more recent model guidance.



..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...



LAT...LON   34880557 35250531 35540498 35700459 35550426 35110405

            34870381 34420374 34180396 34040424 34030480 34300531

            34880557



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH