Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

491

ACUS01 KWNS 221630

SWODY1

SPC AC 221628



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1028 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024



Valid 221630Z - 231200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.



...Synopsis...

A relatively dry and stable air mass is present over a large part of

the CONUS today, preventing thunderstorm potential in most areas.

The one exception will be associated with a deep upper low off the

Pacific Northwest coast.  Strong onshore flow and cold temperatures

aloft will result in pockets of thunderstorms along the coastal

ranges and mountains of northern CA throughout the forecast period.

No severe storms are anticipated.



..Hart/Bentley.. 11/22/2024



$$






                

                        

666

ACUS02 KWNS 221720

SWODY2

SPC AC 221719



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1119 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.



...Synopsis...

Mid-level flow over the CONUS will continue to deamplify as a large

trough moves offshore in the East. Shortwave ridging over the

central US will weaken as it moves east behind the departing trough.

Over the West, broad troughing and strong mid-level flow will

gradually move inland, with a lead shortwave reaching the northern

Rockies by early Sunday.



At the surface, high pressure will shift eastward with offshore flow

over the eastern third of the US. At the same time, a weak surface

low and cold front associated with the lead shortwave, will

translate through the Great Basin and northern Rockies before

intensifying on the leeward side. A few lightning flashes are

possible with low-topped storms ahead of the cold front over the

northern Rockies Saturday. Isolated storms are also possible along

the Pacific Coast beneath the broad trough with onshore flow and

weak destabilization. Otherwise, cool, dry and stable conditions

will prevent thunderstorms over the remainder of the CONUS.



..Lyons.. 11/22/2024



$$






                

                        

089

NWUS53 KAPX 211227

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

727 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0700 AM     Rain             Mackinaw City           45.78N 84.73W

11/21/2024  M1.24 Inch       Cheboygan          MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-CB-7 Mackinaw City 1.1

            ENE.



0700 AM     Rain             1 WSW Ironton           45.26N 85.22W

11/21/2024  M1.13 Inch       Charlevoix         MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-CX-4 Charlevoix 4.3 SSE.



0715 AM     Rain             17 ESE Goetzville       46.00N 83.75W

11/21/2024  M1.09 Inch       Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KDRM Drummond Island.



0700 AM     Rain             1 ENE Harbor Springs    45.43N 84.98W

11/21/2024  M1.06 Inch       Emmet              MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-EM-5 Harbor Springs 0.7

            ENE.



0703 AM     Rain             1 S Sault Ste. Marie    46.47N 84.37W

11/21/2024  M1.04 Inch       Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KANJ Sault Ste Marie -

            Municipal Airport.





&&



$$





MG






                

                        

428

FXUS63 KAPX 221731

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1231 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered light rain showers continue across parts of northern

  today and tonight.



- Lingering lake effect rain (with a few snow showers) on Saturday.



- Rain and snow early next week, colder temperatures to follow.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1035 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024



Forecast remains in great shape at this time, no major changes

needed. Still dealing with the leftovers of cutoff low pressure.

Largely northerly flow over the lakes continues to drum up some lake

induced shower activity near Grand Traverse Bay, while a plume of

deeper moisture intrudes from the northeast, which should allow for

shower coverage to increase over northeast lower Michigan. This

activity still looks to carry into tonight, but with milder

temperatures and winds largely confining activity closer to the

lakeshores (and mild temperatures tonight), an inland risk for snow

appears unfounded at this juncture. Otherwise, a standard cloudy and

gloomy day across the board, which is not all that anomalous for

November in northern Michigan with warm lakes and cooler air

intrusions. Highs today in the 40s, warmest near the immediate

lakeshores, lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024



Pattern Synopsis:



A strong closed mid/upper-level low apparent on satellite imagery

centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to pivot across much of

the eastern CONUS today as the associated surface cyclone gradually

weakens with time due the vertically-stacked system cutting off

favorable temperature/vorticity advection. Meanwhile, ridging and

associated height rises look to overspread the Great Lakes by this

evening.



Forecast Details:



Scattered light rain showers are ongoing across parts of the area

downwind of Lake Michigan, primarily in the vicinity of and south of

Grand Traverse Bay with north winds in place. Light rain showers are

expected to continue across typical northerly flow lake effect areas

across northwest lower, northeast lower, and eastern upper today

into tonight with aforementioned northerly flow in place on the

backside of the system well to our east. Rainfall amounts will be

limited to a few hundredths of an inch through the period.

Temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 40s for most areas

with the warmest readings coming close to the lakeshores. While

temperatures may cool into the mid/upper 30s tonight, snow is not

expected to mix in at this time.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 329 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Lake effect rain showers to continue on Saturday as flow turns

northwesterly and a little energy impinges on the region from the

north. It will be cool enough later in the day and into the early

portions of the overnight for snow showers to mix in across portions

of the higher terrain, the eastern UP, and within any more robust

showers. Not expecting impacts at this time. Brief ridging on

Sunday, and generally dry before a few short waves move west to east

eyeing the GL & Ohio Valley.



Nice little short wave progged to move into the Great Lakes Region

Monday into Tuesday. Actually looks like two pieces of energy, one

diving into the GL and one the Ohio Valley. The degree to which

these two pieces of energy interact will affect the development of

the low pressure system and the magnitude/girth of the precipitation

shield. Nevertheless, it does appear that the first wave of

precipitation around Monday will be a little on the warmer side, and

thus predominantly rain. As the GL short wave dives down into N MI,

cooler air will funnel in, transitioning precip from rain to snow

and to a lake effect variety as well. Does not look blockbuster by

any means at this point, but a catalyst to an active winter pattern

going forward with high temperatures dropping into the low to mid

30s.



Speaking of which, favorable wintry pattern/trends continue to

emerge in the extended. Multiple opportunities for cold air

intrusions and, at the very least, lake effect snow chances. ENS

guidance paints trough after trough digging into the Great Lakes and

eastern CONUS late next week into the first portions of December,

thanks to above normal heights thrusting into the N Pacific, and

across/vicinity of Greenland. How exactly these troughs and short

waves interact with each other will determine how much snow falls

across N MI. Will it be mostly lake effect snows? Or will there be

several opportunities for synoptic snows where most benefit? These

are the questions that will be answered in the coming week(s) but

for certain, the pattern remains favorable for cold and snow chances

in the extended.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1231 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024



MVFR CIGs expected to continue to prevail across northern Michigan

with low pressure being slow to depart. Light lake effect rain

showers continue for MBL, TVC, and APN... and perhaps even

occasionally at PLN as well. N to NNW winds continue, sustained

around 10kts, with gusts 20-25kts at times into the evening

before tapering to sustained flow of 10kts or less tonight.

There remains potential for IFR conditions at CIU and APN

tonight. Northwest winds ramp back up to sustained 10kts,

gusting to 20-25kts at times after 13-14z Saturday, with

continued MVFR CIGs.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



UPDATE...HAD

SHORT TERM...DJC

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...HAD






                

                        

433

ACUS11 KWNS 220424

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 220423

NYZ000-PAZ000-220830-



Mesoscale Discussion 2240

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1023 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024



Areas affected...the Catskills and Poconos vicinity of northeastern

Pennsylvania and southeastern New York



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 220423Z - 220830Z



SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are expected locally

across parts of southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania,

specifically over the higher terrain in the Catskills and Poconos

vicinity.



DISCUSSION...As an upper low centered over southwestern Pennsylvania

moves slowly east-southeastward, a surface low currently analyzed

over the eastern Long Island vicinity will continue to retrograde

northwestward across southern New England and eventually into

southeastern New York.  Strong low-level warm advection north of the

low is resulting in widespread moderate to heavy precipitation --

mostly in the form of rain -- across southern New England and into

eastern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, and northern New

Jersey.  However, temperatures near or slightly below freezing are

indicated across the higher terrain areas including the Poconos and

Catskills, where moderate to locally heavy snow is occurring

(moderate snow is now being reported at the BGM obs site).



Given the rather slow movement of the upper system, QG ascent across

the discussion area should remain strong over the next 3 to 6 hours.

 As such, expect locally heavy snow -- at rates near an inch per

hour -- to persist through midnight and into early Friday morning.



..Goss/Guyer.. 11/22/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...



LAT...LON   42677447 42397416 41817439 41547501 41107548 41177575

            41367590 41477650 41887688 42867614 42917505 42677447