Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

503

ACUS01 KWNS 151623

SWODY1

SPC AC 151621



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Valid 151630Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL

NEBRASKA...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE

SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN

WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable

across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening.  Scattered

severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and

Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.



...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...

Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging,

southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple

mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states.

Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east

across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough

moving east across southeast WY.  Both mid-level features will

likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe

activity later today.



Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th

parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very

unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest

southwestward into the NE Sandhills.  Storms will probably develop

from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead

of the SD mid-level feature.  Sufficient instability and

effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to

support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail

will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms,

before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the

threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly

weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with

eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes.



A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate

along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late

afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present

across this region compared to locations farther north, but

deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still,

some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep

mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous

severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening

across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads

southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible

given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment.



...Great Basin into Wyoming...

The only change for this portion of the region is to increase

severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states.

The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by

the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob.  With the approach of the upstream

northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today,

short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is

consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from

northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far

southwest WY.  Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative

cooling with the more rain-laden cores.  Scattered severe gusts are

possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening.



Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging

southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered

storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening.

An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear,

while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the

presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail

may also occur.



...Arizona...

Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across

parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone

over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again

develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and

southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected

with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated

threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of

southern AZ through the evening.



..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025



$$






                

                        

244

ACUS02 KWNS 151734

SWODY2

SPC AC 151732



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT

RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday

afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the

Great Lakes.



...Front Range and High Plains...

A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it

moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across

the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly

southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up

slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across

the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early

afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial

supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local

terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also

allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in

coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before

moving eastward into the plains through the evening.



How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as

cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in

place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place,

an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east

before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains

overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated

damaging gusts.



...Central Plains...

As the cold front continues to move southward across the central

Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the

north should limit convective development along the front through

much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F

surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a

30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development

is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated

damaging gust are possible.



...Great Lakes...

A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains

will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from

this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front,

enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern

IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually

re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon.

Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of

cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging

gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of

MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more

cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more

linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake

Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts.



To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected

across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread

storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical

shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some

enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts

with scattered to numerous storms expected.



There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms

on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake

Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours.

Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging

gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower

Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if

confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks.





...Upper OH valley...

Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response

to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very

moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some

slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few

longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts

could occur, with the more intense storms.



...Northern Gulf Coast...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will

occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast

Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level

easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a

few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and

perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this

convective scenario is very low.



..Lyons.. 07/15/2025



$$






                

                        

820

NWUS53 KAPX 130109

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

909 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0832 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Leland            45.02N 85.76W

07/12/2025  M45 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XLEL Leland Harbor.





&&



$$



JZ






                

                        

973

FXUS63 KAPX 151910

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

310 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Hot and humid air settles over the region tonight before chances of

showers and storms move across the northwoods. Watching for isolated

severe potential Wednesday evening.



-High pressure returns quiet weather this weekend. Potentially

 active weather develops midweek next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Tonight... Forecast remains quiet tonight as the current boundary

north of the CWA stays over the northern part of Lake Superior. Dew

points in the mid to upper 60s keep overnight lows warm and

uncomfortable to those without air conditioning. Otherwise, mid to

high clouds will linger across the region ahead of the active

weather.



Wednesday... Hot and humid weather breifly returns across the

northwoods as the warm sector builds across northern lower. Daytime

highs will climb to the upper 80s across northern lower Wednesday

afternoon before a cold front to the northwest slowly progresses

southward in the evening hours. Showers ahead of the front could

begin across northern lower as early as late morning/early afternoon

as instability quickly builds and pops off some cells. Model

soundings show the potential of a strong/severe storms with

moderate mid level lapse rates and strong inverted-v profiles. SPC

keeps the CWA under a marginal risk for severe storms mainly because

of a lack of shear, but one or two storms potentiality producing

severe level winds gusts can be expected across northern lower.

Otherwise; convective driven showers will likely produce isolated

heavy showers due to PWAT values near 1.5" and cloud layer movement

producing training storms. QPF values will range from a trace of

precip, to the chance of one or two isolated areas receiving over 2

inches of rainfall by Wednesday night.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Thursday... A few lingering showers remain possible early Thursday

morning behind the frontal passage. Subsidence begins to build

Thursday, drying conditions and returning quiet and cool weather.

Northerly flow will keep daytime highs around 70s for most

locations.



Friday... Midlevel heights turn more zonal across the central U.S

beginning this Friday through the weekend. This pattern supports

quiet and dry weather on Friday with temperatures slowly starting to

build into the mid 70s and continue to climb this weekend. Surface

high pressure keeps chances of precipitation low, and sunny skies

very likely for most areas.



Saturday... Midlevel zonal flow across the midwest continues this

weekend. Chances of precipitation do return to the Upper Great Lakes

region as a low level shortwave tracks eastward. Precip will likely

be weak and unorganized as is transits across the northwoods.

Biggest struggle will be showers overcoming dry low levels. Little

to no precipitation is expected at this time.



Sunday/Next Week`s Outlook.. Zonal flow continues through the

remainder of the forecast period, keeping precipitation low. This

pattern will slowly transition to more of a ridging set-up building

across the majority of the CONUS with strong flow over central

Canada. Chances of precipitation remain pretty low with surface high

pressure slowly building a heat dome by midweek next week. Highs

likely climb to the mid/high 80s by the end of the long term. This

pattern potentially returns an active pattern beyond the long term

as the baroclinic zone to the north creates the classic summer "ring

of fire" across the midwest. Too early to message impacts, but we

will monitor this feature as we approach late July.&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025



High to mid level clouds will continue to spill into the region

from the north and spread southward through the evening into

tonight. Coinciding with increasing cloud cover are increasing

chances for scattered showers/ storms beginning primarily at

KCIU, spreading to northern Lower terminals Wednesday. Southwest

winds will continue to be a touch gusty this afternoon,

especially at KCIU and KPLN. Light and non-impactul winds

otherwise.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SJC

LONG TERM...SJC

AVIATION...NSC






                

                        

864

ACUS11 KWNS 151749

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 151748

MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-



Mesoscale Discussion 1674

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 151748Z - 151945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold

front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with

sporadic hail.



DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the

Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low

over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and

low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud

breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a

long duration deepening moist boundary layer.



Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where

low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase

in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this

afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped.



Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall

deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is

expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will

remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds

around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an

east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early

evening.



..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...



LAT...LON   46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558

            45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122

            47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

241

WGUS83 KAPX 121411

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1011 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



MIC019-055-089-121421-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250712T1415Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Benzie MI-Grand Traverse MI-Leelanau MI-

1011 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 AM EDT THIS MORNING...



The Flood Advisory will expire at 1015 AM EDT this morning for a

portion of northern Michigan, including the following areas, Benzie,

Grand Traverse and Leelanau.



The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a

threat.



&&



LAT...LON 4488 8568 4492 8550 4489 8545 4475 8552

      4465 8561 4468 8574 4475 8582





$$



MJG