Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

187

ACUS01 KWNS 210556

SWODY1

SPC AC 210554



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the

Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large

hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some

strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri,

Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening.



...Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley...

An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional

strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the

Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the

magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No

upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or

wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the

uncertainties are resolved.



Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS

will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before

moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the

afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen

along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance

varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to

low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of

the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level

hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded

supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal

destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany

any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve

if any supercells can be sustained within this regime.



In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at

least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts

of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level

flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will

remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary,

which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon

into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley.



...Central High Plains into the Ozarks...

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move

toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant

to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and

southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend

across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north

of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur

south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is

expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast

CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer

shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to

very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.



Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible

in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into

southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and

sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with

initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later

in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging

winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest

afternoon/evening storms.



Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests

development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from

either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment.

Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth,

though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable

corridors late in the forecast period.



..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/21/2026



$$






                

                        

418

ACUS02 KWNS 210601

SWODY2

SPC AC 210559



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Valid 221200Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN

HIGH PLAINS....



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the

Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated severe

weather is expected along a frontal zone that will extend from the

southern Appalachians to the Mid-South and southern Plains.

Additionally, a widely scattered severe weather threat is expected

across the central and northern High Plains Monday afternoon and

evening.



...Synopsis...

Mostly zonal flow is expected across the CONUS on Monday with

multiple embedded shortwave troughs within the flow pattern from the

central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. A weak surface low is expected

to movefrom the Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic, associated with

the strongest of the mid-level jet streaks within the broader flow.

An additional lee cyclone is expected to develop along the southern

High Plains during the period with a surface front connecting these

two features.



...Mid-Atlantic...

Moderate instability is forecast to develop east of the Appalachians

from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday beneath up to 50

knots of mid-level flow. This combination of shear and instability

will support storm organization, including the potential for some

supercells. Neutral to potentially weak height rises may limit storm

coverage across the region, which may preclude a more widespread

severe wind threat. However, given the steep low-level lapse rates

where temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s, damaging

winds will be likely from any storms that develop.



A narrow zone near the warm front will have a greater tornado threat

given the enhanced shear from a compact, but strong, low-level jet

across northern Virginia into the DelMarVa. A 5% tornado contour may

eventually be needed within this zone, but given the relatively

narrow zone of threat and some uncertainty where this front will be

by Monday afternoon/evening, higher probabilities will not be added

at this time.



...Central/Northern High Plains...

Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast across eastern Wyoming during the

day Monday. This will strengthen upslope flow across the

central/northern Plains. Moderate instability and strengthening

west-northwesterly flow aloft of 40 to 45 knots will result in an

environment that supports widely scattered supercells with the

potential for large to very large hail and perhaps some isolated

wind gusts.



...Northwest Texas and Vicinity...

A more conditional severe weather threat will exist across northwest

Texas and vicinity where there is potential for an outflow boundary

from the morning MCS across Oklahoma to intersect the dryline.

Height rises aloft and strong inhibition should mostly suppress

convection. However, mesoscale convergence at the intersection of

these boundaries could result in one or two supercells capable of

all severe hazards. However, given the conditionality of this

mesoscale threat, higher probabilities have not been added at this

time.



...Mid-Mississippi Valley...

Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast ahead of and south of

a morning MCS that should be in the Oklahoma/Arkansas region on

Monday morning. Reinvigoration of the ongoing MCS or additional

development may result in some isolated damaging wind threat.

However, overall very weak mid-level lapse rates and weaker shear

where the greatest instability is forecast, should keep the threat

mostly marginal/isolated.



..Bentley.. 06/21/2026



$$






                

                        

322

NWUS53 KAPX 210147

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

947 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0630 PM     Hail             3 SW Omer               44.01N 83.90W

06/20/2026  E0.75 Inch       Arenac             MI   Public



            Accumulating hail, max size was penny size.





&&



$$



ELD








                

                        

333

FXUS63 KAPX 210640

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

240 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight chances for isolated showers with a storm or two today



- A break in precipitation with quiet weather, then storm

  chances return mid week



- Below normal temperatures linger through next week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 221 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Large scale broad upper troughing continues to reach across most

of the central and northern CONUS this morning. Little to no

change has occurred with moisture amounts through the column,

and this will continue into today. Little to no larger scale

forcing features exist below 10kft, so lake breezes will form

today as mixing heights rise to around 6kft. Due to the upper

level troughing, cooler air above will result in higher low

level lapse rates. A couple hundred j/kg of instability will

exist this afternoon. Low shear and some instability in the

lower levels will lead to isolated pulse type convection this

afternoon (especailly along lake breeze boundaries). Lower ELs

will keep storms capped, resulting in low to almost no chances

for severe threats from the handful of storms that are able to

form today. Slightly more instability exists over eastern upper,

which would allow for better chances for isolated

showers/storms to pulse along the lake breeze boundary that

establishes this afternoon. Small hail could be likely with

strongest storms, however very low chances for severe threats

remain north of the bridge.



The upper closed low which has been anchored over central CAN

for the last several days will finally advance southeast towards

northern MI later today. At the same time, a surface cyclone

will move northeast up the Ohio River Valley towards southern

MI. Northern MI will likely remain in the "dry" slot, and

receive no additional precip from these features as they

continue eastward later today into tonight.



Slightly drier air in the lower levels settles in under light

north winds for Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies, below normal

temperatures and light winds will be seen these days.



The next system approaches early Wednesday, and will return

scattered shower and storm chances to the region. A Pacific

airmass will accompany this system, resulting in little

temperature change, and lower chances for wide spread heavy

rains. Surface high pressure will settle in for the later half

of the work week, keeping the weather fairly quiet and mild.



Confidence continues to increase in normal to above normal

temperatures returning near the end of the month, as a -PNA

pattern establishes over the CONUS. This would return deep gulf

moisture (storm chances) as well as temperatures warming back

into the 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1129 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Only concern remains the possible development of MVFR to even

IFR producing stratus and mist/fog at KCIU, KMBL, and KPLN

early this morning...with the greatest confidence of this

occurring at KMBL. Looking at VFR conditions elsewhere under

mostly clear skies. Any low clouds/fog/mist will erode quickly

after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions across the taf

locations under some higher based cumulus and some passing mid

level clouds. Light winds through the period with local

afternoon lake breeze development expected.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...ELD

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

528

ACUS11 KWNS 210737

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 210736

MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210930-



Mesoscale Discussion 1226

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0236 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Far Northern Oklahoma...Far

Western Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...362...



Valid 210736Z - 210930Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361, 362

continues.



SUMMARY...An isolated threat severe wind gusts and hail may continue

across parts of southern and eastern Kansas early this morning. The

threat may also impact far northern Oklahoma and far western

Missouri.



DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing across much of Kansas, along the

northern edge of a moist and unstable airmass. Moderate instability

is analyzed ahead of and to the south of the MCS with the RAP

showing MLCAPE from 1000 J/kg in eastern Kansas to 2500 J/kg in

north-central Oklahoma. The instability, along with large-scale

ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough over the

central Plains, will continue to support the MCS for much of the

morning. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in northeast Oklahoma and

south-central Kansas have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range

suggesting that the stronger embedded cells could be supercellular

and have some severe potential. Hail will be possible with

supercells. Severe wind gusts will likely be concentrated along

short bowing line segments. Recently, the MCS has become less

organized. This trend could continue as inhibition increases,

resulting in a more isolated and marginal severe threat with time.



..Broyles.. 06/21/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...



LAT...LON   39289573 39109454 38519403 37659395 37139408 36749453

            36469523 36449661 36669755 36939787 37269794 37689779

            38319714 39099637 39289573



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN