Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

815

ACUS01 KWNS 010601

SWODY1

SPC AC 010559



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later

today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated

severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee

River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains,

northern Rockies, and south Florida.



...Central/eastern TX...

In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave

trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across

north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a

threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies

regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading

to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later

in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify

through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly

warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning

convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for

afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant

outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also

possible.



If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the

afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by

moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies

providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization.

Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts

will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well,

especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying

outflow boundary.



...TN to the Carolinas...

A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO

southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest

low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold

temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across

the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization

near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is

expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected

with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally

25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of

isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could

pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in

the details of any such threat is currently low.



...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY...

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the

Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak

to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will

support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an

attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the

extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of

somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk

area.



...South FL...

Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and

potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the

start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for

modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms

spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early

afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm

organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and

hail.



...Eastern CO/NM...

Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along

and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer

flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some

increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial

storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe

gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized

clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to

locally severe outflow winds.



...Southern CA into southern/central AZ...

A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of

southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread

the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation

will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger

heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will

be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe

probabilities at this time.



...Great Basin...

High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from

parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to

remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized

strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the

early evening.



..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025



$$






                

                        

215

ACUS02 KWNS 010544

SWODY2

SPC AC 010542



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and

southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late

afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the

expected hazards.



...Synopsis...

A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a

northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern

Rockies along the international border over the northern Great

Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across

the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front

preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern

MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen

near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into

eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos.



...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...

Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD

portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late

afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and

to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak

mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong

mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely

lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly

multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures

in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered

on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet

strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are

possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes.



...KS to southern High Plains vicinity...

Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate

from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent

ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough

over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west

of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north

TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow

enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development,

likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell

structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater

MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an

increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early

evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far

downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is

uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater

low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear.



..Grams.. 06/01/2025



$$






                

                        

624

FXUS63 KAPX 010533

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

133 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Chilly, with at least some frost in colder locations tonight.



- Warming trend begins Sunday, with temperatures reaching well above

  normal levels by Tuesday.



- Turning a bit cooler to end the week, with transition period

  likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Large area of cool Canada originated high pressure building south

into the western Great Lakes this afternoon as rather unusual (for

late Spring) deep low pressure rotates up across New England.

Northwest flow (at times gusty) within marginally robust pressure

gradient directed right into our area, keeping temperatures several

degrees below specific normal values for the last day of May...this

despite filtered mostly sunny skies (still some high level

smoke...especially along and west of Interstate 75).



High pressure will continue to work south, with the center of this

high reaching vicinity the Ohio Valley by the end of the weekend.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and addressing frost concerns tonight.



Details:



Conditions continue to look rather ideal for a good to excellent

nocturnal temperature response tonight...with a seasonably chilly

airmass, clear skies, and dry conditions. Upstream trends this

morning confirm this potential, with lows in northern Wisconsin and

central/western upper Michigan falling well down into the lower 30s.

May be just enough of a remnant pressure gradient to prevent

temperatures dropping to similar readings here, but pattern

recognition and nearly the full range of the statistical guidance

suite supports widespread lows in the mid and upper 30s...with the

colder readings across northwest lower Michigan where said pressure

gradient will be most relaxed. Do believe some of our traditional

ice-box locations will make at least a brief run into the lower

30s...especially if full decoupling is realized. While maintenance

of light winds may prevent widespread frost development, confidence

in these cold conditions is now enough to warrant an early Sunday

morning frost advisory for much of the area.



Mostly sunny skies will help temperatures recover rather quickly on

Sunday...helped along by a slowly modifying overhead airmass.

Expecting widespread highs ranging through the 60s. Airmass will

remain very dry, and when combined with marginally gusty northwest

winds...continues to support elevated wildfire concerns across the

area.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Weekend high pressure will continue to build southeast, taking up

residence along the east coast early next work week. Maturing return

flow on the backside of this high will send a progressively warmer

airmass into the northern Lakes Monday and Tuesday. Troughing

building through the northern Plains will eventually send a cold

front across the region mid-week...bringing the threat for rain and

trending temperatures downward to round out the work week.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



How aggressive warming will become Monday and Tuesday...followed by

shower and thunderstorm evolution mid-week.



Details:



Warming trend that begins Sunday kicks into overdrive as we head

into Monday and Tuesday as southwest flow matures...with highs

likely topping 80 for at least some locations on Monday...with

readings well into the 80s on Tuesday across the vast majority of

northern lower Michigan. Of course, readings will be a touch cooler

near those big waters and north of the big bridge. Will definitely

need to monitor for more wildfire concerns as fuel moistures

continue to dry and winds become gusty...especially on Tuesday.



Still some timing uncertainty, but latest mid-range guidance trends

continue to support cold frontal passage sometime Tuesday night into

Wednesday. Combination of both Gulf of America and tropical Pacific

moisture will ride up along and ahead of this front...at least

theoretically supporting some widespread showers and thunderstorms

along it. Uncertainty only increases thereafter, with at least some

hints of additional energy pinwheeling northeast along this

front...keeping the threat for showers across northern Michigan

through Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler, with high

temperatures in the 60s and 70s Thursday through Saturday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 132 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025



VFR conditions are expected across the vast majority of northern

Michigan through the issuance period. The only exception may be

patchy fog development across low-lying areas late tonight/early

Sunday morning, particularly at MBL -- although confidence is not

high enough to explicitly include in the TAF at this time. Any FG/BR

will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Northwest winds will increase

through the morning, becoming around 10 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts

into Sunday evening.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018-

     020>036-041-042-086>088-095-096-099.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...MSB

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

228

ACUS11 KWNS 010539

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 010538

OKZ000-TXZ000-010815-



Mesoscale Discussion 1057

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025



Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 010538Z - 010815Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue through the

early morning hours, and an increase in the threat is possible. If

storms continue to intensify, then a severe weather watch may be

needed.



DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms,

associated with isolated severe, is ongoing across northern

Oklahoma. The storms are located near a front, and are being

supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough moving

southward through Kansas, evident on water vapor imagery. An axis of

low-level moisture is located from northwest Texas into western

Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F.

This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across

much of western Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings near the

instability max have effective shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb

lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should support a threat for isolated

large hail within the stronger cores. A capping inversion is

present, which will keep the storms elevated. However, an isolated

severe gust will be possible with the strongest of cells.



..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...



LAT...LON   36349981 36809917 36859821 36669720 36069657 35239660

            34639689 34319758 34409908 34839980 35490001 36349981



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN