Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

560

ACUS01 KWNS 090546

SWODY1

SPC AC 090545



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1145 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS....



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be

possible today from parts of Florida northeastward into the eastern

Carolinas.



...Florida/Southern Georgia/Eastern Carolinas...

A large-scale mid-level trough will move eastward into the lower to

mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances

eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the

front, a moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward

into the eastern Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the

60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this airmass during the

day, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near any thermal axis

or zone of low-level convergence that develops. In spite of only

weak instability, mid-level flow will increase across the southern

Atlantic Seaboard due to the approaching trough. This is evident on

RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon which increase 0-6 km shear

into the 40 to 50 knot range. In addition, forecast soundings across

the southern Atlantic Seaboard have MLCAPE peaking near 1000 J/kg

with 0-3 km lapse rates becoming steep by late afternoon. This

should support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger

multicells. A potential for hail is also expected to develop. The

marginal severe threat may continue into the early evening, mainly

across north-central Florida where instability is forecast to be the

strongest.



..Broyles/Supinie.. 11/09/2025



$$






                

                        

746

ACUS02 KWNS 090544

SWODY2

SPC AC 090542



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1142 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.



...Discussion...

A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it tracks from the Long

Island vicinity to the Lower St. Lawrence Valley on Monday,

downstream of a highly amplified upper trough over the East. With

weak mid-level lapse rates and a pronounced low-level inversion,

scant elevated buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes

within the warm conveyor. These may occur from the Cape Cod vicinity

through the eastern half of ME into early evening.



The trailing cold front from the aforementioned cyclone should

gradually push through south FL during the morning to early

afternoon. While deep convection over the peninsula appears

unlikely, a couple weak thunderstorms are possible over the FL

Straits and Keys vicinity.



Over southern Lake MI, very cold mid-level temperatures will

continue to support a snow band capable of producing sporadic

lightning flashes into the afternoon.



..Grams.. 11/09/2025



$$






                

                        

514

NWUS53 KAPX 060309

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1009 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025



Here are the highest observed wind gusts from northern Michigan today.

Only observations of 39 mph or higher were included.



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0335 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Roscommon County  44.35N 84.67W

11/05/2025  M49 MPH          Roscommon          MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KHTL Houghton Lake - Roscommon

            County Airport.



0906 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNW Bay Mills         46.48N 84.63W

11/05/2025  M47 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station PTIM4 Point Iroquois, MI.



0405 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Sault Ste. Marie    46.47N 84.37W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KANJ Sault Ste Marie -

            Municipal Airport.



0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 46 ESE Oscoda           44.28N 82.42W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          LHZ363             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station 45008 27 NE Port Hope.



0540 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 31 E Presque Isle       45.35N 82.84W

11/05/2025  M45 MPH          LHZ362             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station 45003 30 E Presque Isle.



0337 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Pellston          45.57N 84.80W

11/05/2025  M44 MPH          Emmet              MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KPLN Pellston - Rgnl Airport Of

            Emmet County.



0426 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Dafter              46.37N 84.43W

11/05/2025  M44 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC041 Dafter T26.



0737 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Leland            45.02N 85.76W

11/05/2025  M43 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XLEL Leland Harbor.



0542 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Mackinaw City           45.78N 84.73W

11/05/2025  M41 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   Buoy



            Buoy station MACM4 Mackinaw City, MI.



0740 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

11/05/2025  M41 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.



0400 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.30W

11/05/2025  M40 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station LTRM4 Little Rapids, MI.



1221 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Frankfort          44.63N 86.25W

11/05/2025  M40 MPH          LMZ346             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XFLT Frankfort Light.



0320 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE East Tawas        44.25N 83.46W

11/05/2025  M39 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XTAW Tawas Point.





&&



$$












                

                        

720

FXUS63 KAPX 090832

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

332 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Accumulating lake effect snow continues through today. Highest accumulations

  expected near the Lake Michigan and Huron lakeshores,

  especially Leelanau, Cheboygan, and Presque Isle counties.



- Additional lake effect snow sets in Monday and Monday night.



- More light rain/snow possible through midweek with warmer

  temps for the second half of the week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Expansive longwave troughing will continue to dig across the eastern

half of the country today and tonight as an embedded amplified

trough pivots over the Great Lakes. The primary jet max punching

across the Ohio Valley will provide some upper-level support to

deepen a relatively weak cyclone currently centered over the

Indiana/Kentucky border as it treks towards New England today.



Forecast Details:



As has been discussed in previous forecast cycles, a tricky forecast

evolution continues to unfold across northern Michigan today into

tonight. Of primary focus has been the well-advertised convergence

band with some embedded mesovortex development that has set up just

offshore of northwest lower over Lake Michigan so far tonight.

Additional mesovortices have been rotating across parts of far

northern Chippewa county -- including Sault Ste. Marie. Over far

northern Lake Huron, lake effect snow showers have begun to develop

and will become another focus for later this morning and afternoon.

Will discuss these separate areas below:



Northwest lower -- This banding is the primary concern over the next

several hours. Slight land breeze development has aided convergence

and thus snowfall intensity, albeit the majority has fallen over the

open waters. That said, webcam footage from Lake Leelanau shows snow

covered ground and roads -- perhaps correlating to around 1-2" of

snowfall so far if having to guess. With stronger north-component

synoptic flow and aforementioned troughing moving overhead, current

confidence is that this activity will be shunted over parts of

northwest lower in the coming hours this morning. Several inches of

snow is expected across parts of northwest lower underneath this

band, including localized totals of 6"+ where embedded mesovortices

rotate through -- most likely over Leelanau county. Heaviest

snowfall is expected through this morning, tapering off this

afternoon as activity works south.



Northeast lower -- While snow showers have just begun offshore,

mesovortex development with this lake effect activity will become

the main focus later this morning through this afternoon. Current

confidence is that this activity will sit offshore through the

morning, eventually rotating over parts of Cheboygan and Presque

Isle counties by late morning/early afternoon. This activity carries

similar potential to banding over northwest lower discussed above --

several inches will be possible for parts of northeast lower where

lake effect works inland, including the potential for 6"+ where the

heaviest snowfall associated with mesovortex activity tracks -- most

likely over eastern Cheboygan and western Presque Isle counties at

this time. For this reason, Cheboygan county has been added to the

Winter Weather Advisory. Of note, confidence in higher totals have

decreased further south along the Lake Huron shoreline. Based on

latest observations and guidance, current confidence is that the

main show later today will be associated with the aforementioned

activity above and that additional lake effect/enhanced banding will

struggle over other parts of Lake Huron due to relatively dry air in

the low levels. A few inches of snow remains in the forecast for

many areas of northeast lower as activity over northern Lake Huron

works south, but this appears to be less robust at the moment than

previously thought.



Primary impacts across the area with any activity will be high

snowfall rates leading to potentially hazardous travel conditions.

Impressive low-level moisture depth and enhanced forcing will

support snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour within the heaviest snow --

leading to quick accumulations of snow on roadways and rapid drops

in visibility. Additionally, any remaining wet accumulations on

roads this evening may freeze overnight as temperatures drop into

the teens and low 20s for many areas after snowfall ends.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 231 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025



Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday):



Additional lake effect snow will be possible Monday and Monday night

as winds shift to the NNW and low level temperatures remain

sufficiently cold. Might be a little NNW lake effect shifting to NW

flow, or some combination/in-between of the two depending on the

exact evolution of the upper and mesoscale pattern. Accumulating

snow is expected, especially GTB and surrounding counties. High end

would be a localized area ~3-6", low end an additional 1-3", with

generally light snow elsewhere. Precipitation will be possible later

on Tuesday as well as quick moving vort max slides on through and

low pressure system digs across Ontario, with more in the way of a

rain and snow mix.



Days 4-7 (Wednesday - Saturday):



Low pressure system passes to the north during the middle portions

of the week. Trailing frontal boundary and associated lake processes

will generate rain and snow showers across northern MI Wednesday

into Thursday. Marginal temperatures during the daytime hours will

lead to a rain/snow mix across the higher terrain, more rain near

the coastal regions. Lake effect precipitation will continue through

Thursday before waning late week. Because of the marginal

temperatures, likely not a big concern as far as impacts go,

although minor accums at night not impossible in the typical

northwest flow lake effect regions.



Drier subsident flow is expected late week as toughing exits to the

east and ridging moves in from the west. There are signals for

perhaps another frontal boundary and precip chances during the

second half of the weekend, however.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1039 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025



Generally VFR with vicinity -SHSN near KCIU/KPLN. Skies mostly

SCT- BKN at 2 to 5 kft with a BKN- OVC layer AOA 7kft moving in

from the SW. Winds will continue to be light and VRB through

12Z. -SHSN will impact coastal terminals of KTVC/KMBL/KPlN

starting around 10Z. Times of IFR vis will be likely under

SHSN. KTVC/KMBL/KAPN will see SN continue after 12Z, whereas

KPLN/KCIU will see VCSH. Wind will become N after 14Z and

strengthen to 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts. SHSN chances will

lessen after 20Z for impacted terminals.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST

     this evening for MIZ018-024-030.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020-

     025-026-031.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST

     Monday for LHZ347>349.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST

     Monday for LMZ323-342-344>346.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DJC

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...ELD






                

                        

868

ACUS11 KWNS 082011

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 082011

NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-082215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2200

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0211 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025



Areas affected...portions of northeast Georgia...northern and

central South Carolina into far southern North Carolina



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible



Valid 082011Z - 082215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a

broad frontal zone from northern GA into the Carolinas this

afternoon/evening. Increasingly strong vertical shear could support

a few supercells with damaging winds, hail and a tornado or two. A

WW is possible though very uncertain.



DISCUSSION...As of 2005 UTC, afternoon satellite and radar imagery

showed a few showers and initial thunderstorms slowly developing

near the broad frontal zone across northern GA and far western SC.

South of the front, a moist and fairly warm air mass was supporting

moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear profiles favorable for some

storm organization. While so far, development has been slow, owing

to modest mid-level lapse rates and forcing, continued low-level

convergence ahead of a weak frontal wave should allow for gradual

storm intensification of this convection over the next few hours.



With cold temperatures aloft and sufficient CAPE/shear for organized

storms, a few clusters and perhaps supercells are possible. Hail and

some damaging gusts would be the most likely threats, especially

with any stronger rotating storms. Any tornado risk is likely to be

maximized along an advancing warm front where weak pressure falls

and backed low-level flow are helping to enhance low-level

hodographs.



Farther east, low-level warm air advection near the warm front was

supporting additional isolated storms over eastern SC. While overall

forcing for ascent is rather nebulous, buoyant and uncapped profiles

may continue to support isolated storm development this afternoon

and evening. Backed low-level flow near the front could allow for

some storm organization, though confidence in sustained stronger

storms is low.



Confidence in the overall convective evolution is low. A conditional

risk for more intense supercells is apparent given the background

kinematic fields overlapped with fairly robust moisture/buoyancy for

November. However, the lack of stronger forcing and slow evolution

casts some uncertainty on peak intensity. Observational trends will

be watched closely this afternoon to evaluate the need for a small

WW should more intense supercells evolve.



..Lyons/Smith.. 11/08/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...



LAT...LON   34758378 35108252 35138104 34977972 34627901 33727903

            33307942 33238027 33498097 33588385 33708472 33878456

            34208438 34758378



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN