740

ACUS01 KWNS 040051

SWODY1

SPC AC 040050



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0650 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025



Valid 040100Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...



...SUMMARY...

A storm with isolated severe hail will be possible tonight along the

upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.



...Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana Coasts...

Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Desert Southwest with

west-southwesterly flow located across much of the southern U.S. At

the surface, a moist airmass is located over much of the western

Gulf. The northern edge of the moist airmass impinges the middle

Texas Coast, and model forecasts suggest that the airmass will

gradually shift northeastward along the upper Texas into far

southwest Louisiana. Although warm-advection-related thunderstorms

will be mostly concentrated offshore, an isolated strong storm with

hail potential could develop in far southeast Texas or far southwest

Louisiana from late evening into the overnight period.



..Broyles.. 12/04/2025



$$






                

                        

895

ACUS02 KWNS 031655

SWODY2

SPC AC 031654



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1054 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.



...Western/central Gulf Coast...

Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along

portions of the northwest Gulf Coast, with a surface front likely

offshore of the Middle TX to southern LA coasts. Strong deep

convection should be relegated along and south of this front in the

adjacent coastal waters, which should result in greater southeast

displacement of the boundary away from the TX/southwest LA coast

during the day. The front could brush extreme southeast LA towards

midday/early afternoon, but the bulk of CAM guidance indicates that

severe gust/waterspout potential should be confined offshore. With

the primary upstream shortwave trough quickly moving from the

southern High Plains to the OH Valley and remaining low amplitude,

the surface reflection along the outflow-reinforced front will be

weak. As such, while severe probabilities may not be zero, they

appear too low to warrant a categorical highlight over land.



..Grams.. 12/03/2025



$$






                

                        

660

NWUS53 KAPX 022201

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

501 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0300 PM     Snow             Cross Village           45.64N 85.04W

12/02/2025  M15.0 Inch       Emmet              MI   Broadcast Media



            24hr snow total.



0300 PM     Snow             Good Hart               45.57N 85.11W

12/02/2025  M14.0 Inch       Emmet              MI   Broadcast Media



            24 hr snow total.



0300 PM     Snow             3 S Pleasant View       45.47N 84.93W

12/02/2025  E11.5 Inch       Emmet              MI   Broadcast Media



            24 hr snow total.





&&



$$












                

                        

336

FXUS63 KAPX 032323

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

623 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Shot of partially modified Arctic air visiting the Northwoods

into Thursday, resulting in well below normal temperatures and more

lake effect snows.



- More of the same heading through the extended, with periodic

  shots of reinforcing cold air and more lake enhanced snow

  chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Pretty respectable cold front now exiting off into northern Lake

Huron, with a shot of partially modified Arctic air sweeping into

the region behind it. Additional lake snows and falling temperatures

the result, with even colder conditions lurking just upstream. Still

relatively "mild" out there, with current readings in the 20s to

lower 30s...with those warmest readings on the south side of the

sunrise side.



Cold air advection will continue across the northern Lakes tonight

through Thursday morning, with the coldest temperature anomalies

slowly rotating off to the east heading into later Thursday and

Thursday night.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Lake snow evolution and attendant amounts/headline considerations,

along with temperature trends.



Details:



Over-water thermal gradient only increases further with time tonight

into Thursday morning as H8 temperatures break -20C (pretty

impressive for early December). Transition to a more "pure" lake

effect environment will also occur as any real synoptic scale

support is lost. Still, some pretty impressive lake snow parameters

will continue to focus across eastern Lake Superior, helped along by

maturing lake aggregate troughing running up Whitefish Bay into the

central basin. Good to excellent convective depths (up to 10kft) and

enhanced low level convergence via that lake aggregate troughing

will definitely help compensate for loss of synoptic contribution,

with well organized lake bands expected to impact the famed

snowbelts of Chippewa County tonight into Thursday morning. With

that said, still have some trepidation with regards to exact snow

totals as aggressive cooling perhaps forces the fluff-producing

dendritic growth layer closer to the surface (perhaps below cloud

base levels altogether). However, have also experienced aggressive

lake modification within better banding structures eventually

forcing the favored DGZ back within the snowflake production layer.

We shall see. Either way, looking at significant impacts, with some

of the heavier snow bands looking to perhaps direct themselves right

into the SOO and along the entirety of the M-28 corridor. Easily

expect several inches of snow in these areas by later Thursday

morning, with double digit totals on the table...especially if that

DGZ remains centered in the convective cloud depth layer. Gusty

northwest winds will definitely result in areas of blowing snow,

especially in those more open areas along M-28. This of course will

only exacerbate the already hazardous travel conditions.



A bit of a different story off northern Lake Michigan with both

lower inversion heights and lack of any well organized low level

convergence signature. These should theoretically result in less

organized multi-band structures as well as less intense snowfall

rates. Still, simple persistence of passing snow showers will likely

bring a few inches of new snow to parts of northwest lower by later

Thursday morning where diffused bands become a bit more stationary.

Again, gusty northwest winds will result in some blowing and

drifting snow...definitely resulting in some travel impacts across

the snowbelt regions of northwest lower Michigan. Snow shower

intensity and organization expected to decrease of both lakes

Thursday afternoon as convective depths shrink and lake aggregate

troughing is lost.



Other focus is on those cold temperatures, with lows tonight

dropping into the single digits away from those lake modified

areas...and highs Thursday likely only reaching the upper teens

across inland regions. Gusty northwest winds will of course make it

feel several degrees colder, with wind chill readings likely

dropping into the single digits below zero by later tonight into

early Thursday.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 233 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Really, no significant changes as long-wave troughing and active

northern stream flow maintain control of northern Michigan weather

right through the middle of next week.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and addressing additional snow concerns through

the period.



Details:



As mentioned above, simply a forecast of persistence into next week.

Next wave looks to arrive later Thursday night into Friday, with

additional shortwave energy arriving Friday night. Each one of these

waves will bring renewed chances of lake augmented snows...with the

threat for any real accumulations again centered in our traditional

lake effect areas. Not seeing any real signal for heavy snow

amounts...although will need to watch Friday night as sustained west-

southwest flow and ample synoptic moisture contribution may target

heavier snow into the Lake Michigan collar counties. Simple forecast

persistence thereafter, with additional fast moving and relatively

moisture starved waves kicking off additional snow showers at times

right into next week...with the greatest emphasis in our snowbelt

regions. Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees each day but

remain at least a few degrees below normal right though the period.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 614 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025



Currently a handful of sites have returned to VFR, with some IFR

as -SHSN moving across the region has led to times of 1SM near

KTVC/KCIU. Widespread SN over northern lower MI is exiting,

with lake effect snow showers building in behind the FROPA. NW

winds of 8 to 13kts with G15 to 20kts will be seen through 12Z.

Fragmented bands of SHSN are expected to be transient over

northern lower, leading to brief impacts to terminals tonight.

KCIU has a better chance of seeing longer lived MVFR/IFR

conditions due to times of SHSN. Conditions improve for all

terminals after 16Z as winds become light and W.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for MIZ086-087.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-

     342-344>346.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for

     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...MSB

AVIATION...ELD






                

                        

867

ACUS11 KWNS 030113

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 030112

MEZ000-NHZ000-030715-



Mesoscale Discussion 2249

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0712 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025



Areas affected...coastal northern New England



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 030112Z - 030715Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1+

inches per hour are possible across southern Maine this evening,

with heaviest rates most probable near Down East coastal areas

closer to and after Midnight EST, as strengthening and gusty winds

contribute to reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting.



DISCUSSION...A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to continue an

east-northeastward migration, generally south through east of the

Cape Cod vicinity through mid to late evening.  This will be

accompanied by a zone of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric

frontogenetic forcing to its north through northeast.  At

mid-levels, the Rapid Refresh indicates that this will shift across

southern Maine through southern New Brunswick, where forecast

soundings indicate that  strengthening lift in (roughly) the 600-500

mb layer may coincide with temperatures most conducive to large

dendritic ice crystal growth (around -15 C).



There is notable spread within and among the various model output

concerning these details, and potentially varying rates of cyclone

and upward vertical motion intensification.  However, in the

presence of sub-freezing thermodynamic profiles, guidance generally

indicates snow rates on the order of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour are

possible this evening across much of southern Maine.  Heaviest rates

appear most probable near immediate coastal areas of Maine,

particularly across Down East coastal Maine closer to and after

05-06Z, when strengthening and gusty east-northeasterly surface

winds may contribute to considerable blowing/drifting and reduced

visibilities.



..Kerr.. 12/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...



LAT...LON   43277133 44757076 45456714 44046610 43626951 43127081

            43277133