403

ACUS01 KWNS 100556

SWODY1

SPC AC 100554



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1154 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears low today.



...Synopsis...

The large-scale pattern will feature a ridge across the western

CONUS with a trough across the east. A surface low will deepen below

990mb as it moves from the southern Great Lakes to the Northeast

during the period. A cold front will extend southwest from this

surface low and bring a reinforcing cold/dry airmass to much of the

central and eastern CONUS.



Significant moisture (60F dewpoints) will be relegated to far south

Florida. However, even here, northerly flow should persist within

the post frontal airmass. This should keep any thunderstorm

potential well offshore. A brief period of southerly return flow

across the western Gulf may bring some near 60F dewpoints to the

Texas coast, but this should be short-lived as a reinforcing cold

front moves offshore this evening.



Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS today.



..Bentley/Thornton.. 12/10/2025



$$






                

                        

590

ACUS02 KWNS 100502

SWODY2

SPC AC 100501



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.

Thursday through Thursday night.



...Discussion...

Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near

and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the

eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to

include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly

component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the

Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and

northern U.S. Great Plains during this period.  One or two short

wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to

reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley

into western Atlantic.



Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf

Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise

in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast

to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.

While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears

that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat

northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee

Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower

Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday

night.  At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to

gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern

U.S. Rockies.



Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more

diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a

gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the

northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.

Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas

coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur

beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,

precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.



..Kerr.. 12/10/2025



$$






                

                        

083

NWUS53 KAPX 092027

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

327 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0325 PM     Snow             Lake Ann                44.73N 85.84W

12/09/2025  M3.5 Inch        Benzie             MI   Broadcast Media



            Snow total from early this morning through

            early afternoon.





&&



$$












                

                        

857

FXUS63 KAPX 100443

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1143 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of accumulating snow tonight into Wednesday.

  Lake effect snow likely in its wake late Wednesday through

  Thursday.



- Another clipper Friday with additional lake effect snow

  chances through the weekend, along with cold temperatures.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains over the

eastern two-thirds of NOAM this afternoon. Embedded shortwave trough

crossed northern MI this morning, now situated just downstream.

Focus quickly shifts upstream to a wave dropping into the Dakotas.

Attendant surface low following suit. This system waves southeast to

southern WI by 06z tonight and into southern Ontario by mid-

Wednesday morning. Colder air gets pulled in on the heels of renewed

northwest winds on the backside of this system Wednesday afternoon/

evening.



Forecast Details: Most widespread snow associated with this

morning`s clipper now off to our east, but a mix of lighter snow

showers and freezing drizzle linger across parts of northern MI.

Additional snow accumulation through the early evening likely under

a half inch with a coating to 0.05" of ice where freezing drizzle

falls/mixes in.



By mid-late evening, next round of snow expected to be spreading

into northwest lower, continuing to progress east/southeast through

the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Somewhat better

agreement coming into line with this morning`s suite of global and

hi-res guidance with the swath of heaviest snow likely falling

across parts of central and southern MI. Should be a pretty

impressive embedded FGEN band that sets up across part of this area,

but again, highest probabilities for this lie to our south.  That

said, still some impactful snow accum. expected across southern

parts of APX`s footprint -- namely south M-32 and to a further

extent, south of M-72. Expecting a fairly sharp cut off on the

northern edge of the snow shield. This is the least confident part

of the forecast at this time with exactly where that northern edge

cut off is, but current trends support accums tapering quickly as

you head near and north of M-32. No changes planned to the inherited

winter weather advisories -- those advised areas still forecast to

receive 2-5". A more general 1-2" toward the M-32 corridor. Largely

an inch or less north of there.



Widespread snow expected to be exiting through Wednesday morning,

clearing far southern areas near Saginaw Bay towards midday. Renewed

northwest winds on the backside of this system, gusty as times up to

25-30 mph. This will bring a return of lake effect snow showers

to the typically favored snow belts of eastern upper and northwest

lower afternoon, and more so Wednesday evening/night.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 136 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Wednesday night - Thursday night:  Northwest / west-northwest winds

expected to prevail Wednesday night through Thursday with lake

effect snow showers being the rule, favoring the typical snow belts

of northwest lower and eastern upper MI. Eye-popping snow amounts

may be hard to come by, however, as latest trends point toward

little in the way of synoptic help above a gradually shrinking

inversion below 5-6 kft. None the less, it`ll remain wintry in the

snowbelts with some localized advisory-level snow amounts not out of

the question. Thursday evening/night, low-level winds expected to

gradually back more west or west-southwesterly, likely pushing what

lingering lake effect snow showers remain toward the tip of the

mitt.



Friday into the weekend:  Another wave set to cross the northern

tier of the country on Friday with increasing potential for the core

of an Arctic airmass to follow in its wake heading into the weekend.

H8 temps progged as low as around -21C Saturday/Sunday. Longer range

ENS trends continue to favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged

lake effect/enhanced event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with

highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits across much

of northern MI through this time frame. Given such cold

temperatures, potential for dendritic growth may be limited,

resulting in smaller flake size and limit overall accumulation to an

extent, but also yield lower visibilities.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1142 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025



Low pressure sliding across southern Michigan will spread snow

across parts of the area into Wednesday morning. The snow will

primarily impact KMBL/KTVC/KAPN, with KPLN/KCIU seeing little if any

snow.  Widespread IFR cigs/vsbys likely in the snow areas, with MVFR

elsewhere.  The widespread snow exits the area from west to east

Wednesday morning with conditions improving to MVFR in most

locations.  Scattered snow showers throughout Wednesday with winds

becoming gusty as they back north/northwest on the backside of the

departing low.  Gusty winds, combined with the recent snowfall in

some areas, will create areas of blowing snow with reduced

visibility, especially across open areas with north/northwest

exposure.



A secondary surge of cold air will swing into the area Wednesday

evening, accompanied by more snow shower activity and continued

gusty winds.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ020-

     025>036-041-042.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for

     LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for

     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MJG

LONG TERM...MJG

AVIATION...JK






                

                        

373

ACUS11 KWNS 100112

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 100112

WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100415-



Mesoscale Discussion 2256

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0712 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025



Areas affected...eastern Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 100112Z - 100415Z



SUMMARY...Heavy snow to continue through the evening with occasional

1"/hr rates.



DISCUSSION...Heavy to moderate snow continues to be reported across

portions of eastern MN into central WI as of 01z. The surface low

continues to shift south and eastward, currently located over

southern MN. 750-850 mb frontogenesis is maximized across far

eastern MN into portions of central WI. 00z sounding from MPX shows

a nearly saturated dendritic growth zone. Moist profiles and

continued frontal support will continue to bring potential for heavy

bands with 1"/hr rates over the next few hours. As the surface low

continues to shift south and east, rates will decrease through the

late evening/overnight.



..Thornton.. 12/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...



LAT...LON   45168976 45809185 45779315 44449368 44309332 43519148

            43189063 42818973 43488872 44668880 45168976