Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

869

ACUS01 KWNS 171955

SWODY1

SPC AC 171953



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026



Valid 172000Z - 181200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.



...20z Update...

No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See

previous discussion below for more information.



..Thornton.. 01/17/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/



...Discussion...

Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight

as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded

shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks

and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue

southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the

Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with

some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse

rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.



$$






                

                        

892

ACUS02 KWNS 171705

SWODY2

SPC AC 171703



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.



...Synopsis...

Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday

with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air

mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward

across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features

will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday,

and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform

precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However,

negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest

low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development.

Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the

southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm

advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm

motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.



..Moore.. 01/17/2026



$$






                

                        

640

NWUS53 KAPX 171525

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1025 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0800 AM     Snow             1 ESE Mancelona         44.90N 85.05W

01/17/2026  M5.4 Inch        Antrim             MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-AT-6 Mancelona 0.5 ESE.



0800 AM     Snow             1 W Petoskey            45.37N 84.98W

01/17/2026  M5.0 Inch        Emmet              MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station PETM4 Petoskey WWTP.



0800 AM     Snow             2 SE West Branch        44.25N 84.20W

01/17/2026  M4.6 Inch        Ogemaw             MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station WBRM4 West Branch 3

            SE.



0721 PM     Snow             3 E Cedarville          45.99N 84.30W

01/16/2026  M4.3 Inch        Mackinac           MI   Public







0700 AM     Snow             1 NW Fife Lake          44.58N 85.37W

01/17/2026  M4.1 Inch        Grand Traverse     MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station FLAM4 Fife Lake 2

            WNW.



0917 AM     Snow             3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.00W

01/17/2026  M3.6 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Public







0700 AM     Snow             1 NW Waters             44.91N 84.72W

01/17/2026  M3.5 Inch        Otsego             MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station APXM4 Gaylord 9 SSW.



0800 AM     Snow             1 SSE Petoskey          45.36N 84.95W

01/17/2026  M3.4 Inch        Emmet              MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station PTYM4 Petoskey NCMC.



0830 AM     Snow             3 ENE Kingsley          44.60N 85.48W

01/17/2026  M3.3 Inch        Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-21 Kingsley 2.7 ENE.



0700 AM     Snow             2 SE Elmira             45.05N 84.82W

01/17/2026  M3.2 Inch        Otsego             MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-OT-19 Elmira 2.2 ESE.



0900 AM     Snow             5 S Benzonia            44.54N 86.11W

01/17/2026  M3.2 Inch        Benzie             MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-BZ-1 Benzonia 5.3 S.



0800 AM     Snow             3 SW Omer               44.01N 83.90W

01/17/2026  M3.2 Inch        Arenac             MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station STAM4 Standish 4 NE.



0700 AM     Snow             4 WSW Bates             44.73N 85.51W

01/17/2026  M3.1 Inch        Grand Traverse     MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station TCEM4 Traverse City

            4.7 ESE.



0700 AM     Snow             1 WSW Saint Ignace      45.86N 84.74W

01/17/2026  M3.0 Inch        Mackinac           MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-MC-5 St. Ignace 0.6 WSW.



0800 AM     Snow             2 N Suttons Bay         45.00N 85.65W

01/17/2026  M3.0 Inch        Leelanau           MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-LL-8 1 NNE Suttons Bay.



0730 AM     Snow             2 W Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.40W

01/17/2026  M3.0 Inch        Chippewa           MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station SSMM4 Sault Ste.

            Marie.





&&



$$












                

                        

682

FXUS63 KAPX 172021

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

321 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Snow chances tonight/Sunday.



- Alberta Clipper brings more impacts Sunday night/Monday.



- Extended period of cold weather on tap for the upper Great

  Lakes starting Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Full-latitude long wave trough

encompassing the eastern two-thirds of North America to start this

weekend...part of a highly amplified pattern with matching 3 sigma

standardized height anomalies within a -EPO ridge along the west

coast (+3) and within the trough over the Plains (-3).  Several

short wave troughs/PV anomalies rotating through the mean trough

position...strongest wave moving through Kansas/Missouri per WV

imagery.  Small upper low spinning across eastern Iowa.  Elongated

PV anomaly along cyclonic side of the jet stretches from eastern

Colorado northeast across the Dakotas and into northwest Ontario...

on the other side of this feature are strong 500mb height rises

(+120m/12h) over the northern High Plains/southern Saskatchewan. Low

level lake aggregate thermal ridging across the Great Lakes with a

plume of cold air (sub -20C 850mb temperatures) across northern

Quebec/Ontario and spilling southward into the northern/central

Plains/Midwest (850mb temperatures a relatively balmy -10C at APX at

12Z compared to -25C at BIS).  999mb surface low north of Georgian

Bay with cyclonic flow in its wake across the upper Lakes...1040mb

Arctic high over southern Saskatchewan ridging southward into the

central Plains.



North American long wave trough will be reinforced over the coming

days...opening the door for Arctic air to flood into the central/

eastern CONUS.  Pattern configuration is not expected to change with

more of a Rex block look to things over the eastern Pacific

maintaining higher heights over Alaska...and subsequent downstream

troughing.  So we are staring down the barrel of an extended period

of colder weather.



Surface low north of Georgian Bay lifts northeast into Quebec

tonight...as upstream Arctic high splits around the Great Lakes as

these features are wont to do.  A series of short wave troughs

crossing over the top of the upstream ridge will dig southeast and

spin up another Alberta Clipper Sunday.  This will "phase" with

lingering surface troughing over the upper Lakes and result in a

more consolidated surface low over northeast Ontario Monday.

Stronger cyclonic flow in the wake of this low will usher in the

real cold on Monday...with sub-500dam thicknesses always a strong

signal for single digit daytime highs (above and below zero).

Midweek period may bring something of a reprieve as the spin-up of

another surface low swings boundary layer winds to a more southerly

(warmer) component for Wednesday...but with a reinforcing push of

colder air possible by Thursday.  This same pattern may be on repeat

for the end of the extended period (Friday-Saturday) but the

potential magnitude of the cold air for next weekend...yikes if we

get in the way of that.  But more on that below...



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Snow chances tonight/Sunday: A broken area of snow continues to

swirl around the Great Lakes and Midwest this afternoon...some of it

tied to a short wave trough northeast of the Lakes...some of it tied

to the small upper low over Iowa...some of it lake induced with

shifting winds across the Lakes (northerly on Lake Superior/west-

southwest on Lakes Michigan/Huron).  Plenty of deep layer moisture

hanging around within overall cyclonic flow/troughiness and somewhat

steeper lapse rates/weaker static stability.  For tonight a bit of a

mesoscale mess with regard to precipitation evolution.  Initially

will be watching a surface trough currently dropping south from Lake

Superior into Upper Michigan. Looking for a couple of things from

this trough: 1) Pretty good signal for a strong band that kicks into

gear over Lake Michigan...this should get more persistent snow going

west of the US-131 corridor tonight with a nice thermodynamic

environment (inversion heights above 700mb/-22C)...kinematic fields

are a bit on the weak side so have to wonder how far inland this

will extend or even the morphology (organized horizontal rolls

versus more "mushy" convection).  Have snow amounts that are pushing

the low end of advisory criteria (2-4+ inches) from Manistee up to

Charlevoix counties for tonight.  Will lump all the headline

discussion in the Albert Clipper impacts paragraph.  2) Next

question is the northern portion of the band...how much of the Tip

of the Mitt counties does it impact (probably not much??) and how

far south it will propagate (maybe M-32/M-72 corridor)...though may

see snow showers flare up over northern Lake Huron.  Another

possibility given the combination of good thermodynamics and weak

kinematics is the possibility of a mesoscale vorticity center

developing between the bays on Lake Michigan...which then drifts

inland.  We`ll see how/if this pans out.



Boundary layer flow will back to the southwest early Sunday...but

will actually be cold advection in the low levels so the

thermodynamic environment will not relent...with the snow focus on

the Leelanau Peninsula early then shifting north toward Emmet/

Mackinac counties.  Add in a synoptic component to this by late in

the day (more on that in the next paragraph) will likely need

additional snow headlines for these zones Sunday/Sunday night

(already carrying 2-5+ inches for the Emmet/western Mackinac zones

just for Sunday).



Alberta Clipper brings more impacts Sunday night/Monday: More snow

will overspread northern Michigan probably starting late afternoon

Sunday but especially Sunday evening with consolidating surface low

over Michigan.  As of now strongest dynamic forcing is expected

south of the forecast area...though organizing circulation will like

result in some wraparound/deformation snow Monday.  Southwest flow

lake enhancement will be an issue off Lake Michigan...with the

evolution impacted by multiple convergence zones along the Arctic

cold front as well as a surface trough that spins across the area

Monday (and the cold and wind will follow).  Snow will transition to

northwest flow lake effect in the wake of the trough passage Monday

as 850mb temperatures drop below -20C...though that will being to

wreak havoc with snowflake growth processes with more plates/needles

and more of a talcum powder consistency to the snow (lower SLR than

what the guidance will suggest).  Will certainly blow around readily

but the accumulation efficiency will be compromised (the wind won`t

help in that regard either).  Winds are expected to gust 20-30+mph

Monday...with gusts 30-40mph along the northwest Lower shoreline

south of Little Traverse Bay.  And lest we forget falling

temperatures on Monday (though that is a separate headline issue

which will be discussed more below).



So what to do with all of that from tonight through Monday from a

headline perspective? Will put up a Winter Weather Advisory through

1200Z Sunday for the Lake Michigan shoreline counties from

Charlevoix down to Manistee including Grand Traverse Bay to cover

expected lake effect mesoscale banding.  For Sunday night/Monday

current snowfall totals are definitely in the high end advisory/low

end warning amounts along and west of the US-131 corridor...and

throw in the wind/blowing snow potential for Monday is expected to

make for a rather nasty late morning/afternoon.  That alone might

tip the balance in eventual favor of a warning...so will start with

a Winter Storm Watch for all of the northwest Lower shoreline

counties plus Grand Traverse/Kalkaska/Wexford (a watch transitioning

to a high end advisory is perfectly acceptable...these aren`t pre-

warnings).  Will run the watch time from 2100Z Sunday through 0000Z

Tuesday except for Emmet county where given the potential for

heavier southwest flow banding early in the day Sunday will start

the watch there at 1800Z.



Extended period of cold weather on tap for the upper Great Lakes

starting Monday:  Shifting winds and cold advection in the wake of

Monday morning`s clipper passage expected to send temperatures on a

downward trajectory...falling into the single digits during the

afternoon most locations.  Tuesday morning lows in the single digits

above and below zero...with wind chills expected to be in the

vicinity of Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-15 to -25F northern

Lower...-20 to -30F eastern Upper).  Single digits highs likely

across eastern Upper Tuesday as well as across interior northern

Lower.   Temperatures expected to moderate Wednesday with highs back

into the upper teens-20s...and the drop again back into the teens

Thursday/Friday...and next weekend could potentially be the coldest

portion of this week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1240 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026



CIG`s will remain mostly MVFR through the forecast period as

ceiling heights remain BKN and OVC between 015 and 025. Periodic

-SN and SHSN will continue at all TAF sites tonight through

 Sunday, with the lowest VISBY`s expected at KTVC and KMBL

 dropping less than 2SM between 0000Z and 0500Z tonight. Other

 sites will have temporary VISBY drops, but should mainly remain

 above 3-4SM.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday

     evening for MIZ016.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST

     Sunday for MIZ020-021-025-026-031-099.

     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday

     evening for MIZ020-021-025>027-031-032-099.

MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for

     LMZ323-342-344>346.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JPB

AVIATION...SJC






                

                        

107

ACUS11 KWNS 172039

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 172038

NYZ000-PAZ000-172345-



Mesoscale Discussion 0025

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026



Areas affected...western/central NY and northern PA



Concerning...Snow Squall



Valid 172038Z - 172345Z



SUMMARY...Long-lived snow squall may persist into early evening,

while likely diminishing in areal extent/intensity.



DISCUSSION...A long-lived snow squall which began west of Cleveland,

has recently passed through the Buffalo Metro Area, with numerous

first-order observing sites along Lake Erie having recorded

half-mile or less visibilities and gusts of 30-40 kts. More sporadic

snow squall conditions have been noted along the trailing portion of

the band that is now in western PA. A pocket of warmer surface

temperatures in western NY may help sustain the squall near the Lake

Ontario vicinity into early evening before more prominent weakening

of lapse rates. Large-scale mid-level warming will lower inversion

heights and combined with the onset of nocturnal surface cooling,

these factors should aid in the squall diminishing. This is

supported by latest RAP/early-afternoon CAM guidance with a

reduction in the snow-squall parameter and simulated reflectivity

trends towards 00Z.



..Grams.. 01/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...



LAT...LON   42967861 43257840 43437779 43397683 43607640 44027616

            44107553 43437542 42617619 41987692 41617771 41317823

            41227858 41217921 41387937 41677928 42487874 42967861








                

                        

686

WGUS43 KAPX 110432

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1132 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026



MIC011-111630-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.W.0001.260111T0432Z-260111T1630Z/

/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Arenac MI-

1132 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026



...FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by an ice jam is occurring.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  county, Arenac...specifically along the Rifle River, downstream

  from Melita Rd.



* WHEN...Until 1130 AM EST Sunday.



* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying

  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Depending on

  ice behavior, any release of the ice jam could result in sudden

  rises of water, leading to a rapid flooding situation.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1125 PM EST, emergency management reported ongoing

    flooding in the Pinnacle Drive area.

  - Flooding impacts will continue.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Omer.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.



Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law

enforcement and request they pass this information to the National

Weather Service when you can do so safely.



&&



LAT...LON 4399 8375 4399 8376 4399 8379 4399 8380

      4399 8381 4400 8381 4406 8391 4406 8402

      4409 8402 4409 8390





$$



FEF






                

                        

945

WGUS83 KAPX 111623

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1123 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026



MIC011-111633-

/O.CAN.KAPX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260111T1630Z/

/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Arenac MI-

1123 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026



...FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM IS CANCELLED...



The Flood Warning is cancelled for a portion of northern Michigan,

including the following area, Arenac.



Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.



&&



LAT...LON 4399 8375 4399 8376 4399 8379 4399 8380

      4399 8381 4400 8381 4406 8391 4406 8402

      4409 8402 4409 8390





$$



PBB