056 FXUS66 KSEW 192104 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 204 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue across much of the region through the end of the week as a couple disturbances bypass the region. Temperatures will remain mild through the first half of the week, though a few areas next couple of mornings may see some instances of patchy fog. The next chance of precipitation comes with a potential front moving through next weekend, with snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A large trough offshore is digging its way south towards California today. The surface low pressure system associated with the trough will also bypass the region to the south today into Tuesday. The weather will remain largely quiet thanks to the low and trough missing the region, and also a weak upper level ridge developing in western Canada today into Wednesday. High clouds will remain overhead this afternoon into early Tuesday. Can`t rule out some patchy fog potential with the high cloud deck thinning out and calm or light/variable winds, but the coverage will likely be limited to the valleys where it is cooler tonight. Some frost may also mix in, particularly in the south interior. The high clouds will dissipate late Tuesday, which should help bump up high temperatures a few degrees, as well as into Wednesday. The best chance for a 70 will be in the south interior. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure from Wednesday will move east on Thursday. A trough with a weak cold front will pass through Thursday into Friday. The best chance of precipitation will be for areas east of I-5, up to the Cascades. Temperatures will cool down a few degrees Thursday and Friday, with more 50s for highs, and some 30s in the valleys and mountains (which may also see a couple 20s). The models into next weekend remain in disagreement as to when and where another potential low will track through the region. Some have the system moving north up into Canada, and others have it deepening off the coast of B.C. This will keep precipitation chances somewhat a "tossup" going into the weekend, although snow levels either way are expected to drop to 4,000 to 5,000 ft going into weekend. HPR && .AVIATION... An upper level low will spin offshore to our SW tonight, with dry and stable weather over western WA. The flow aloft is southerly. Pockets of shallow fog expected overnight, especially over the south sound. Low clouds will burn off mid to late morning with VFR conditions expected. 33 KSEA...VFR conditions expected through the period. N winds around 5 kt, becoming NE 5-10 kt by 12-15z Tue. 33 && .MARINE... Northerly flow will prevail over the waters with low pressure spinning off northern CA. Weak high pressure will result in generally light winds through mid week. Onshore flow will increase on Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front moves inland. Seas will rise on Thursday night and Friday with swells reaching 10-15 feet. Winds will turn offshore this weekend as deeper low pressure spins over the offshore waters. 33 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

237 FXUS66 KPQR 192020 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 120 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Largely dry weather expected through midweek. Near normal temperatures today will warm above average Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for wetter and cooler weather return late in the week with potential for a more robust system next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...An upper-level trough over the Northeast Pacific is taking on an elongated appearance in satellite imagery as it begins to cutoff from the mean flow. The developing upper low is centered near 44.5N/131.5W as of midday Monday, or just over 350 miles west of Newport, and is expected to track south off the California coast through tonight. A narrow band of clouds within a deformation zone on the eastern flank of the trough is continuing to produce modest radar returns east of the Cascade crest, however observations of rain reaching the surface have been few and far between. As this feature pivots west, there are low chances, 10-20%, of light rain in the Linn and Lane County Cascades through this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday. Upper-level ridging developing over top of the closed low will support offshore flow, although the magnitude of the pressure gradient should not be enough to yield impactful winds. Nonetheless, typically windy spots in the western Columbia Gorge and near exposed ridges in the Cascades will likely see period of breezy east winds, especially overnight and in the early morning. This offshore flow will also support temperatures reaching around 10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, translating to afternoon highs in the 60s on the coast and in terrain, and in the low to mid 70s within inland valleys. There continues to be good consensus that progressive troughing will return to the region Thursday into Friday, while the upper low also moves inland over California supporting moisture transport about its eastern flank and into Central Oregon. This combination will support modest precipitation chances as high as 25-50% in the Lane and Linn County Cascades, but more widespread chances of 10-15%. Where rain does fall, it will likely be very light and fail to amount to significant accumulations. The approaching trough will also restore onshore flow and see temperatures fall back to more seasonable values from Thursday through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast increases this weekend as long-range guidance remains mixed on the evolution of yet another trough over the Gulf of Alaska. Most ensemble members depict an occluding surface low approaching the coast somewhere between Florence and Cape Flattery at the northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula, with some then bringing the system inland while others see it fill and retrograde over the waters off Washington state. The intensity of this low also remains in question, with a low to moderate chance of deepening to around 990 hPa or lower. Impacts from this system may be two-fold: there is potential for widespread rainfall and strong winds cannot be ruled out. In terms of rainfall, eastward moisture transport on the southern flank of the low could amount to the first atmospheric river of the season, however the duration of the moisture flux as well as the moisture flux magnitude do not at this point appear sufficient to yield precipitation totals which would raise flooding concerns as area rivers remain near annual minimum streamflow thanks to a largely dry October thus far. If the surface low becomes deep enough and approaches near enough to the coast, coastal communities may experience strong winds. At this point, the chances for peak wind gusts of 40 mph or higher at the coast on Saturday are 15-25%. && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Wednesday...A low pressure system dropping southward well offshore will continue to send scattered high clouds over the area through 00Z Wednesday. High clouds should become thicker tonight, helping to prevent fog development. Confidence is high (>90%) for predominantly VFR flight conditions through 00Z Wednesday. Winds will remain light today and tonight at less than 5-10 kt before offshore winds develop sometime between 15-18Z Tuesday, bringing increasing easterly winds to KTTD and increasing northeast winds to KUAO. Winds will increase out of the north from KSLE to KEUG. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flights conditions will continue through 00Z Wednesday with scattered high clouds becoming broken tonight. Light winds should become northwesterly sometime between 22Z Monday and 00Z Tuesday, sustained around 5 kt. Easterly winds are expected to develop at KPDX around 18-19Z Tuesday, sustained around 8-11 kt. -23 && .MARINE...A low pressure system dropping southward well offshore will generate a stronger westerly swell arriving this evening which will push seas to near 10 ft, highest beyond 10-20 NM offshore where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect starting at 5 PM today. Winds turn northerly after sunset today and increase noticeably tonight in the wake of the passing system. Widespread wind gusts up to 25 kt will be possible over the outer waters beyond 10 nm offshore late tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Although wave heights will be on the decrease tomorrow, the increase in wind speeds will maintain hazardous conditions for small craft. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory in effect for the outer waters beginning at 5 PM today will remain in effect through 5 PM tomorrow. Beyond 5 PM tomorrow, winds and seas will be on the decrease as high pressure returns. Winds and seas are set to increase again Thursday into Friday morning with the passage of a weak cold front, especially over the northern waters to the north of Cape Falcon where conditions will likely be hazardous to small craft. There is the potential for a stronger low pressure system over the upcoming weekend, bringing a 20-40% chance for gale force wind gusts and seas over 10 feet. Overall confidence in the exact track and strength of this potential low pressure system is low at this time, and the forecast is worth monitoring over the next several days. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

760 FXUS66 KMFR 192146 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 246 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very low chance of rain today and later tonight. * High chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday east of the Cascades. Wetting rain seems likely east of the Cascades. * 20 to 30% chance of thunderstorms around Modoc and Siskiyou County Wednesday afternoon. * There is a chance of another system developing off the coast Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Radar is picking up on some echos this afternoon and a few surface stations have picked up on 0.01 inches of rain over the last 24 hours. So not everything on radar is evaporating before it hits the ground, although most of it is. We`ll see this band of light precipitation disappear later tonight as the mature cyclone to our west remains well offshore in the Pacific. Tuesday morning should be mostly cloudy with some lighter east winds over the higher terrain and most of the region. Temperatures should begin with a notable trend upwards during the day. We`re currently forecasting a high of 75 in Medford, which is about 10 degrees warmer than what we`ll observe this afternoon. By Tuesday evening, some models are bringing some light rain into Modoc And Siskiyou County. If it does rain, then it should be fairly light. Heading into Wednesday, the models seem very confident with showers and thunderstorms developing over the California Sierras and moving into our sections of northern California and south Central Oregon by Wednesday evening. The latest high resolution ensemble forecast guidance(REFS) is showing a 40% chance of cloud to ground lightning around Modoc County, which frankly seems a little high. The forecast soundings from the GFS don`t look all the impressive for thunderstorms, although there is some skinny convective available potential energy(CAPE) in a few forecast soundings. We`ll see the chance of showers persist into Thursday with as 50 to 70% chance of rain mainly east of the Cascades with those probabilities lowering the farther one moves west. In fact, the coast is expected to stay dry Wednesday and Thursday as all this moisture and stronger lift impacts regions to our east. The latest forecast has about 0.5 to 0.25 inches of liquid falling east of the Cascades Wednesday night through Thursday with 0.1 to 0.25 inches along the Cascades and perhaps a few hundreths around the Rogue Valley. The last topic worth noting is the chance of another system strengthening off our coast and bringing more wetting rain to the region. Right now, the chance of rain is about 50%. There are a fair amount of ensemble members keeping things dry or just keeping the precipitation well to our north. It will remain something to watch if ensembles converge on a drier or wetter solution. -Smith && .AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs... High and mid level clouds are currently moving through the region this afternoon. Some isolated rain showers are also possible later this afternoon. VFR ceilings are expected through this afternoon into the early evening. Fog seems unlikely around KOTH tonight as guidance is keeping visibility above 6 miles along the coast tonight. A large low is also traversing through the Pacific, which will help keep a strong inversion away. VFR conditions are likely through Tuesday morning. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, October 19, 2026...Winds gradually turn northerly tonight. Meantime, west-northwest swell dominated seas will gradually increase, bringing steep seas for all areas. Conditions improve for the inner waters by Tuesday afternoon, but steep seas linger for the outer waters south of the Cape Arago into Tuesday night. Thereafter, overall improved conditions are expected for Wednesday with sub-advisory north winds and light swell dominated seas. A thermal trough is expected Thursday into Friday, with north winds increasing slightly on Thursday, and more noticeably on Friday. This may result in steep seas. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

008 FXUS66 KEKA 192210 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 310 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Deep marine influence near shore will persist but slowly weaken through Wednesday. * Generally seasonable temperatures across the interior with isolated, weak showers possible for the eastern interior Wednesday. * A dry cold front late week. Very high uncertainty by the weekend with equal chances for moderate rain or warm and dry weather. && .SYNOPSIS...Deep marine influence will persist near shore through Wednesday with seasonably cool conditions for the interior. A dry cold front will pass late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Low pressure currently stalled offshore of the PNW will gradually meander south over the next few days. Today, the low has helped push a deep marine layer far inland alongside thick midlevel clouds. This combination has helped keep conditions much more cool and moist not just near shore but all across the interior. Event he warmest inland valleys have stayed below 70. The low will meander south but largely remain offshore through Wednesday. Light offshore wind on the north side of the low will help push marine air out of interior valleys. Still, midlevel cloud cover and a still elevated marine layer will keep the shore cool and grey. Slight coastal drizzle is possible as the low passes by the coast early Tuesday morning. The interior will warm only slightly, generally into the mid 70s during the day. Some high resolution models show the low pushing moisture up the Sacramento Valley around Wednesday, forming showers in Eastern Trinity and Mendocino Counties. This solution is relatively unlikely with the broader ensemble suite only show a 10% chance of weak showers. In any case, midlevel clouds are likely that day. Most ensemble members show a weak cold front dipping across the area around Thursday and into Friday. This front would be most dry lifting but also eroding the marine layer. Potential with any rain along this front is minimal (less than 10%). Cool and dry conditions immediately behind the front will likely aid in dry but cold interior conditions with widespread possible frost Friday morning. By the weekend, ensembles models show a remarkable amount of d divergence. Roughly 50% show a strong, moist low dipping across the area with potential for 1-2 inches of rain along the North Coast. The other 50% show high pressure building generating warmer and drier than normal conditions. This makes the deterministic official forecast unusually uncertain for anytime beyond Friday. /JHW && .AVIATION...Low pressure passing by has generally helped lift the marine layer along the coast with only weak south winds and broken midlevel ceilings around 10 kft supporting VFR conditions. Some high resolution guidance (35% chance) shows a weak marine layer reforming very late overnight with some low mist and ceilings around 1 kft: overall MVFR to marginal IFR conditions. But otherwise VFR conditions will persist. /JHW & .MARINE...Generally gentle north winds will persist through Wednesday with some weak southerly winds in the inner waters. Weak winds will keep short period seas calm, but a mid period swell will quickly build up to 12 feet Tuesday, generating some marginally steep seas during the day. The swell will mostly decay below 8 feet by early Wednesday. Moderate north winds will gradually build in the outer waters Thursday. Winds will push closer to shore Friday as cold front passed by with some near gale gusts likely by Friday in the lee of Cape Mendocino. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER...A deep marine layer sweeping far inland has created much more cool and moist conditions Monday. Winds turning back offshore Tuesday and Wednesday will help regenerate moderately dry conditions, but even then RH recovery will remain high with daytime RH struggling to get below 30 percent. High temperatures will broadly remain in the 70s. Another cold front late int he week will most likely lift marine air back over the interior Thursday, though chance of wetting rain is near 0%. Cold dry air Friday will help bring RH back closer to 20 percent during the day. Aside form some moderate winds along the front Thursday, winds will be weak. The forecast is highly uncertain by the weekend with equal chances of moderate rain and unseasonably warm and dry conditions. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

927 FXUS66 KMTR 192033 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 133 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 - Cooling trend continues through the end of the week - Beneficial light rain showers expected mid-week - Thunderstorms possible mid-week across southern Central Coast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1235 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 (This evening through Tuesday night) Morning marine layer mixed out giving way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Despite the increased insolation temperatures are much colder than yesterday. Definitely a far cry from last weeks heat. 24 hour trends this afternoon are 5 to 20 degrees colder with highs still on track to top out in the 60s to 70s (80s interior Central Coast). Tonight through Tuesday afternoon will be the proverbial calm before the "storm". If we take a broader view of the EPac and West Coast one can see an active pattern with change in our sensible weather literally on the horizon. A robust 150kt upper level jet is diving southward from the Gulf of Alaska and rounding the base of an upper level trough off the PacNW as we speak. The cyclonic curvature of the jet is supporting upper level divergence, which in turn promotes surface cyclongensis. Or in this case, will further enhance the surface low already positioned off the PacNW. This surface low an associated upper level low are all upstream. In the meantime, it`s a waiting game. Not expecting a marine layer tonight due to increasing surface pressure gradients and some marginal cold air advection. Don`t be surprised to see some radar echoes off the N Bay Coast either today through Tuesday. These radar returns are elevated and tied to the upper jet max rounding the base of the digging trough. For Tuesday the upper level trough deepens enough and eventually becomes cut-off from the mean flow. Any weather watchers know that upper level lows are tricky and can lead to lower confidence on timing/position since they`re cut-off from the mean flow. For this upper low, confidence begins to decrease as some hi-res guidance begins to suggest two upper level vort maxes pivoting/rounding the base of the upper trough. With two vort maxes focus of best lift/dynamics becomes less certain. That being said, will carry a chance of scattered showers over the coastal waters through Tuesday afternoon. As for land locations, dry through Tuesday afternoon with seasonably cool temps: 60s and 70s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, enough moisture and lift will be present with the nearby fully cut-off low to promote showers moving onshore. Still best dynamics remain offshore, but a few scout showers moving inland are plausible. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 130 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 (Wednesday through next Sunday) Wednesday will be an active day across the region as the upper level low wobbles off the Central Coast before moving inland late in the day. Solid upper level jet will fuel the main thrust with this system. In fact, one could even argue a little bit of phasing just offshore and through Point Conception during the day. As such, expect precip chc to become more widespread across the forecast area, but still main focus over the Central Coast. We`ve been advertising a chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms over the Central Coast waters and Central Coast. Current forecast keeps the low chance in the forecast. Taking a closer look at dynamics (still 48hrs out) this could end up being a lower CAPE high shear environment. So what does that mean? Possible low topped cells with some rotation. Given a solid lower level jet (under 850mb) we`ll see a higher shear environment for CA standards. Combine the shear with some meager SFC and MU CAPE developed storms may rotate. Predicted hodographs are also elongated implying a deeper layer of shear. Greatest likelihood is near the Big Sur Coast Wednesday from 12-18Z. SPC does at least have this region in a general mention. Given the convective threat we`ll be watching the Timber and Plaskett burn areas. If a developed cell moves over the right location it`s within the realm of possbilities that a threshold will be met for debris flows. Very low conf high impact scenario, but wanted to at least mention it. The upper level low slowly loses upper level jet support and ultimately becomes an open wave late Wednesday into Thursday. As such, we`ll keep precip chances in the forecast through Thursday. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Thursday will generally be 0.05-0.25" and 0.25-0.75" Central Coast. Drier weather returns by Thursday night as the now open wave moves eastward. Behind the departing system some form of ridging develops with a warming and drying trend heading into the weekend. Not expecting the heat we just had, but a few degrees above normal will be possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Currently MVFR-VFR. Stratus is dissipating with VFR expected by the afternoon. High clouds are streaming in from the southwest and will increase in coverage through the TAF period. Onshore winds this morning and this afternoon will back through the TAF period to become southerly. While there`s no precipitation in the TAFs, there is a chance for rain showers Tuesday, especially across the coastal waters. The incoming low pressure system will deepen and mix out the marine layer, likely keeping the terminals VFR after this morning. Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with westerly flow. High confidence in VFR prevailing by this afternoon. Westerly winds will diminish and begin to back this evening, becoming southeasterly overnight and northwesterly tomorrow afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...After this morning, the San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely remain clear of clouds below FL070. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with westerly flow at MRY and MVFR with southerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR prevailing by this afternoon. Westerly winds will diminish and begin to back this evening, becoming southeasterly overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Moderate northwesterly breezes will prevail today with hazardous conditions for small craft along the Big Sur Coast through this afternoon and Monterey Bay this afternoon through this evening. Winds will diminish and back to a gentle southerly breeze Tuesday. Moderate northerly breezes will prevail Wednesday, increasing to become fresh to strong Thursday into Friday. Moderate seas will prevail with rough seas across the outer waters Tuesday and Friday. Rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday, especially south of Pigeon Point. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

544 FXUS66 KOTX 192136 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 236 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather continues through Wednesday with mild afternoon temperatures. - Breezy winds down the Okanogan Valley on Tuesday. - Cooler weather with increased precipitation chances Thursday night through the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected through Wednesday, with variable cloud cover and mild temperatures. Cooler weather and increasing precipitation chances arrive Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Monday night through Wednesday: An upper-level low currently off the PNW coast around 130W is currently providing the Inland Northwest with widespread middle and high level clouds as of Monday afternoon. This low will dig southward off the California coast Monday night into Tuesday morning, allowing subtle ridging to build into the Inland Northwest. Temperatures trend warmer on Tuesday with less cloud cover. North winds will increase through the Okanogan Valley Monday night through Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into British Columbia and strengthens the CYLW-KPSC pressure gradient to +4-6 mb. This will support sustained winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph down the Okanogan Valley Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will also increase, though not as strong, out of the northeast through the Purcell Trench in north Idaho with sustained winds 12 to 18 mph. Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, but with lighter winds as the north-south pressure gradient decreases. Thursday through Sunday: Changes in the weather pattern arrive Thursday as the closed low over California begins to eject northeastward and a frontal system with a trailing shortwave approaches from the west. While the frontal system looks mostly dry, moisture and precipitation associated with the upper-level low moving into far eastern Washington and north Idaho will bring a 30- 50% chance of rain across far eastern Washington and a 50-80% chance across north Idaho. Additionally, winds will be breezy to gusty from the northwest to west with the cold front. With the KPDX-KGPI increasing to +12-17 mb Friday morning, there is high confidence for wind gusts greater than 30 mph across central Washington and southeast Washington (60-80% chance) with a 30-50% chance across the Spokane area. Blowing dust is not anticipated to be a significant hazard given the lack of dust generation during recent comparable wind events. However, this will mark the trend toward cooler daytime high temperatures. By the weekend, confidence in the weather pattern significantly decreases regarding the strength and track of the next approaching weather system. Ensemble analysis reveals considerable variance: 42 percent of global ensemble members project a deeper trough influencing the Inland Northwest with cooler, wetter conditions. Conversely, 25 percent maintain an offshore closed low, and 33 percent depict a flat ridge with a weaker system traversing northern British Columbia. Both of these latter scenarios favor a warmer, drier sensible weather outcome. AI ensembles provide little consensus, as the GEFS AI ensemble favors the cooler and wetter solution (which is the opposite of the physics-based models) while the ECMWF AIFS ensemble indicates only subtle mean troughing, highlighting the uncertainty for the weekend. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions through the period with light winds under 10 kts through the early evening. Thick mid and high clouds will be present over the region today into Tuesday morning as moisture wraps around an upper-level low digging offshore the Pacific Northwest. Winds will increase out of the north through the Okanogan Valley tonight into Tuesday morning and out of the northeast in north Idaho. Gusts up 25-30 mph are expected at KOMK Tuesday morning. Less clouds are expected Tuesday afternoon as the upper- level low shifts to offshore the California coast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. High confidence in breezy north winds through the Okanogan Valley Tuesday morning. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 41 68 40 67 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Coeur d`Alene 41 68 41 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Pullman 37 67 38 68 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 60 Lewiston 42 68 44 70 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 70 Colville 33 67 33 70 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Sandpoint 38 66 38 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 30 Kellogg 41 68 41 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 Moses Lake 39 70 37 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Wenatchee 46 68 46 68 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 39 68 39 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

688 FXUS66 KPDT 192254 CCA AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 354 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ridging continues to promote warm and dry conditions through the next couple of days. - Weather system pushes through mid-week, enabling slight chances (15-25%) of thunderstorms across the Wallowas and parts of the Blue Mountains, wetting rains, and breezy winds. - Uncertainty with the pattern through the weekend going into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite shows mid to upper level broken to overcast skies across the region with light radar returns not reaching the ground. Surrounding soundings from Spokane and Medford recorded mid-level dry air, evaporating any precipitation before it has a chance to reach the surface. Upper level ridging will continue to influence the synoptic pattern, allowing max temperatures to climb up to 10-15 degrees above seasonal average across the region. Current guidance suggests high temperatures will reach the upper 60s to low 70s by Wednesday (70-80% chance) as the ridge continues to travel east. Winds in the short term with the upper ridge will be light in general with standard diurnal cycles. A low pressure system associated with a trough currently resides just off in the Pacific moving in a south/south south-west motion, which will continue until sometime late Tuesday through mid Wednesday. Guidance is in good agreement that the cut-off low will then move onshore into California bringing wrap around precipitation into the region with PoP`s up to 30-70% through Thursday and into early Friday. Heavier/greater chances of that range will be mostly in the Wallowas and parts of the Southern Blues down into Central Oregon. Current NBM estimates advertise up to a tenth of an inch of rain in the Foothills of the Blues and gradually increases up to a half inch when you get into the Eastern Mountains (50-70% chance for all QPF`s). Confidence is only medium with the widespread of 6-hour 25th-75th percentiles across the area due to the .15-.25 inch differences between the quartiles. Confidence is high (70-90% chance) we see wetting rains (>.1") over a 24-hour period in some locations along the eastern mountains, Grand Ronde Valley, and parts of the John Day Basin through Friday. Up to 150-200 J/kg of CAPE will develop Thursday across Wallowa and parts of the Southern Blues bringing slight thunderstorm potential (15-25% chance). Storms are not expected to last long and be more pulsey with no severe weather expected. A cold front will bring tight pressure gradients across the region Thursday and Friday, enabling breezy to locally windy conditions to occur across most of the region. NBM advertises 50-80% chances of wind gusts 30 mph or greater across much of the region (except for Central Oregon). Upping the threshold to 45 mph or greater (wind advisory criteria) lowers the chances exclusive to the Dalles and the Cascade gaps at 20-40%. Overall, not too concerned for wind advisories as of yet, but will see how this evolving forecast changes and will see if highlights are needed later this week. Another shortwave is expected to move down from British Columbia down into the PacNW (70-80% chance) with uncertainty with how clusters handle the shortwave. In fact, 29% of clusters want to bring ridging over the area with area wide dry conditions by Sunday. On the flip side, 54% close the low and bring chances (30-40%) of moderate to heavy snow in the Cascades. Still a while to monitor but the potential for some impacts is possible as we head closer to the weekend. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions and predominantly light, diurnally and terrain- driven winds of 10 kts or less are expected (95% confidence or higher) through the period. There is a low chance (30% or less) of light rain at BDN/RDM through this evening, with even lower chances (20% or less) elsewhere. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 36 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 41 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 36 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 40 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 36 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 36 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 29 62 27 70 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 36 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 38 72 40 75 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 44 71 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...86

212 FXUS65 KREV 191909 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1209 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy and dry tonight with light showers possible late day Tuesday. * Storm will bring wetting rains and high elevation snow to the region Wednesday and Thursday. * Cool but mainly dry Friday into the weekend. Unsettled pattern could bring a storm or two next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Confidence continues to grow in a widespread wetting rain Wednesday into Thursday, as banded precip sets up over the forecast area to the N/NE of slow moving upper low. This one definitely has more going for it than the "storm" a little over a week ago. While showers could develop as early as Tuesday afternoon/evening, the bulk of the rainfall looks to be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a 70-90% chance of at least 0.25" in both valleys and mountains. Orographics won`t really be a big lifting factor given S/SW flow and most of the forcing being aloft. * While this will by and large be a welcome & beneficial rainfall that will help quell fire potential and recharge the streams, some simulations show potential for 1-2" rain under any banding that develops. That could yield flooding in poor drainage areas or on recent burn scars including the Hawk and Bug fires near Reno. With autumn leaf and needle drop happening, gutters and drains should be checked beforehand. I`d also expect the commutes Wednesday & Thursday to be extra slow due to rain & ponding water. * We also could be looking at some snow for the Sierra that may have an impact for the still-open passes such as Tioga, Sonora, and Mt Rose. Guidance indicating Wednesday night into Thursday as the best potential for that happening - 70% of 2-3" and 25% of 6" for these passes. It`s that time of year to start thinking about preparing your vehicle for winter travel, e.g. good tire tread & wipers & battery, start carrying chains & check your survival kit. * In general wind won`t be a major issue with this system. The one exception is in the Eastern Sierra in the Owens/Chalfant Valleys up into the Hwy 95 communities in Mineral County. Southerly breezes look to channel up those valleys Tuesday & Wednesday, with gusts potentially peaking 40-45 MPH. This could produce some localized fire weather concerns Tuesday. * Simulations kick this upper low out pretty quick on Friday, such that we`re left with mainly dry and cool fall-like conditions through the upcoming weekend. Into next week, the pattern is pretty low-predictability as evidenced by the wide spreads in temperature and precip forecasts in the NBM. That being said, a number of the AI models, which show skill at long lead times, are showing a decent early season snow event for the Sierra around or just before Halloween. CPC has a slight risk for heavy snow in their 8-14 day hazards outlook. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Low pressure off the California coast will produce enhanced S/SW flow aloft (700mb flow 25-30 knots) over the Sierra and W Nevada, along with SCT to BKN mid and high level cloudiness, into Tuesday. * Gusty winds are expected this afternoon/evening, generally 20-25 knots at most TAF sites. As surface winds subside overnight into Tuesday morning, low level wind shear will be likely given continued breezy flow at ridgetop levels. Mountain wave turbulence is likely especially from RNO/TVL northward. * Showers are forecast to develop after 18z/Tues with roughly 15-30% probability for brief MVFR periods in rain and lower ceilings. Much wetter for Wednesday-Thursday with IFR or worse conditions in rain and mountain obscuration. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

034 FXUS66 KSTO 192054 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 154 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for a shower over the Coastal Range this afternoon/evening. - Widespread precipitation Tuesday through Thursday, with below normal temperatures, thunderstorm chances, and high elevation snow showers. - Dry conditions return end of the week and into the weekend, followed by the potential for further unsettled weather. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Thursday... Current satellite and radar has an area of light showers over the Coastal Range this afternoon as a trough sits off the coast. This trough will continue to deepen and move onshore through Thursday. Today we will continue to see clouds move into the region with a broken cloud deck overnight. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s today and through the remainder of the week. The main push of precipitation comes Tuesday evening as moisture from the south pushes through California. Snow levels will be above 9000 feet on Tuesday and drop to 8000-9000 feet Wednesday. Tuesday evening, we will see instability increase across the mountains and foothills, with up to 500 J/kg of CAPE and strong speed and directional shear. This fuels the chances for an isolated thunderstorms within the mountains and foothills. A few storms may be on the stronger side with small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning possible. As we move through Tuesday night into Wednesday precipitation chances becomes widespread across the forecast area, with increased chances for thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon in parts of the southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin Valley, foothills, and mountains. Shear, instability, moisture, and lift are in better positions to initiate and sustain thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. A few storms may be on the stronger side Wednesday, with small hail, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequently lightning being the main hazards. There is a low chance for a low top supercell to develop within the foothills and/or northern San Joaquin Valley where shear is more elongated and sustainable for supercellular development. We will continue to monitor the latest for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow levels start to drop to the 8000-9000 feet Wednesday, and a few inches are possible within the higher peaks of the Sierra predominantly south of Highway 50. Minor impacts are possible in eastern Tuolumne and Alpine counties Wednesday and potentially into Thursday as the system lingers across the area. Thunderstorm chances will again be possible Thursday, but remain in the foothills and Sierra where lift is more sustainable for the growth and development. ...Friday and onward... The system moves out of the southwestern United States Friday and Saturday, with a return to dry conditions for the area. This doesn`t last long as ensemble guidance continues to show an unsettled pattern redeveloping across the western United States bringing the potential for more precipitation to parts of California. Temperatures during this time remain below average for this time of year. Uncertainty arises with the development, timing, and strength of any precipitation end of the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across the region through the TAF period. There are some brief low clouds around the RBL site this morning, which will continue off and on through 19z. Otherwise, winds will be breezy at times, with a few gusts near the Sacramento sites to 20kts this afternoon/evening. Overnight clouds move in for all sites from the west as a system moves into the region. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

563 FXUS65 KMSO 191838 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1238 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Mild conditions continue through Thursday. - Patchy valley fog in the mornings, especially in narrow valleys. - Significant change coming Friday into the weekend. A weak, but broad ridge over the region combined with less solar heating this time of year is causing very stable conditions across the region. While this is causing overall mild weather and sunny afternoons, it`s also allowing valley cold pools to develop with intermittent fog in the mornings. This is expected to continue through Thursday. Thursday night into the weekend a trough and cold front move into the region. Wind gusts around 20 mph are expected in Idaho and 20-30 mph across most of western Montana on Friday. Most of the moisture with this system will move up from the south and affect southwest Montana, but some light showers are also expected across northwest Montana. Most of the precipitation will be in the warm sector, and while snow levels will fall to around 5,000 ft Friday and lower over the weekend, most of the moisture will come ahead of that and fall as rain. Forecast snow amounts across the region are generally less than an inch, and mostly above 5,000 ft. The exception of course is the higher elevations of Flathead National Forest and Glacier National Park, which will likely pick up several inches of snow this weekend. Recent conditions have been very warm and mild, so while this change represents a big change in the weather, it`s not expected to be much of an impact. && .AVIATION...A ridge over the region is keeping conditions mild. Some valley fog for an hour or two in the mornings is the only expected impact through Thursday morning. Terminal KMSO is the most likely to be affected by nearby fog with KGPI coming in a close second. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

359 FXUS65 KBOI 192059 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 259 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal through Wednesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Tuesday afternoon, and increasing Wednesday through Friday. - Cooler temperatures by the end of the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... An upper low off the Oregon coast will continue to track south over the next day. Our area will see southerly winds aloft continue for Tue/Wed. This keeps temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal, or low-mid 70s in the valleys and upper 60s in the mtns. The southerly flow will also draw up moisture, which will be reflected by 20 degree dew point temperature rises and precipitable water values pushing past the 90th percentile. This moisture will be fuel for shower and possible thunderstorm development starting late Tuesday afternoon, and continuing beyond Wednesday night. Daytime heating along with elevated instability will support afternoon/evening development over the w-central ID mtns and along the northern NV border late Tuesday. An embedded wave lifting through the area Tuesday night will extend a low chance of showers (and possibly a rumble of thunder) across much of the area. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the w-central Idaho mtns and areas along the NV border Wednesday afternoon/evening. Wednesday night will see precipitation chances increase from south to north as the closed low pushes onto the s-central CA coast and a secondary wave approaches the Pac NW. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Widespread showers will be the story Thursday into Friday, as the low lifts northeast over our area from California. While cloud cover will help limit daytime instability, cooling aloft will allow for weak instability to develop, resulting in a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will result in localized heavier rainfall rates/totals underneath the core. At least for Thursday, southerly flow aloft will keep snow levels on the higher side (9-10kft MSL), giving rain its opportunity to shine as the dominate precipitation type. Over the course of Thursday through Friday, guidance continues to trend upwards on total accumulations, with lower elevations ranging from 0.15-0.50 inches (lowest in eastern Oregon), mountain valleys ranging from 0.50-0.80 inches, and highest elevations up to 1.25 inches; with the bulk of the precipitation falling late Thursday into early Friday. While this will be more stratiform and long duration in nature, steep terrain/burn scars may experience increased runoff and land movement. A cold front on Friday will bring a rather sharp end to the precip and a cooldown as it moves across our area from west to east. Temperatures comes Friday will drop around 5 degrees below normal. Another, probably more notable, consequence of the cold front will be the gusty west-northwest winds that will accompany it. Friday afternoon, winds across ridge tops and open terrain will gust to 20- 35 mph. The strongest winds, however, will blow in the Snake River Plain east of Mountain Home where gusts will reach 35-45 mph. Lowering snow levels on Friday behind the front will allow for a transition to snow/wintry mix for elevations above 6.5 kft MSL. Although this switch will be at the tail end of the precipitation, so only a dusting of snow is expected along high elevation passes such as Banner Summit. Pattern uncertainty increases behind this system, however Saturday at the very least should be dry with temperatures warming to near normal again. While ensemble consensus is another trough digging down to the west coast come Sunday, there is considerable uncertainty in how this low interacts with the departing on and when/if it get brought inland over our area. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1017 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026 VFR under high clouds. Locally reduced visibility due to smoke from prescribed fires. Surface winds: S-E 5-15 kt, with localized gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon in SE Oregon. Generally becoming light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 6-12 kt with afternoon gusts 15-20 kt, becoming light and variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG AVIATION.....NF

310 FXUS65 KLKN 192248 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 348 PM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm afternoon temperatures continue through mid-week. * Isolated thunderstorms possible across portions of northern and central Nevada Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as well as on Wednesday. * Periods of valley rain and mountain snow showers likely Wednesday through Friday. * Cooling trend Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are currently sunny across much of thew forecast area though some low to mid-level clouds can be seen over east-central and wester-central Nevada this afternoon. Temperatures continue to remain above normal for this time of year. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight with lows in the 30s. Upper level low pressure will be spinning out in the eastern Pacific tomorrow. Moisture from the south will be pushing to the north. Favorable dynamics will help to promote isolated to scattered showers with the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder. Forecast surface-based CAPE values will be in the 100 to perhaps 150J/kg with weak instability mainly across central and portions of eastern Nevada Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Wednesday through Friday, the upper trough will gradually wobble its way towards western California on Wednesday. From here, models will bring it ashore Wednesday, opening and crossing into southern and central Nevada by Thursday and Friday. Model trends have been consistent in showing this to be a warm storm with snow levels above 7500 feet. Rainfall amounts in the valleys over the Wednesday through Friday timeframe have been increased and are fairly robust at a half-inch up to an inch. Highs during this period will be warm on Wednesday with readings in the 60s and 70s, but cooling into the 50s and 60s by Thursday and Friday. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon, especially in central Nevada where gusts to 35-40 mph are expected. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. The upper system is expected to shift out of the forecast area for Saturday with dry conditions expected afterwards. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the NBM forecast through the short term. Confidence in the short term forecast remains high, though there are slight differences in the timing and location of convective activity Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming 24-hour period. Winds will become breezy to locally windy tomorrow across the central terminals with gusts to 25KT. Local BLDU conditions may restrict visibility to one mile in spots, though confidence in occurrence remains too low to place in TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will continue to remain mild across northern and central Nevada through mid-week. An upper level system will be shifting to the east through the week, bringing increasing chances for valley rain showers and mountain snow showers along with breezy to locally windy conditions. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Temperatures will begin cooling after Wednesday with readings in the 50s. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86