ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

689 FXUS66 KSEW 110338 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 838 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Near-seasonal temperatures throughout the weekend with reoccurring spells of morning clouds and afternoon sun. Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest early next week for warmer, dry conditions through much of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Widespread southwest flow over the region as broad upper- troughing positions over the NE PAC along with a high center present over the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating has eroded marine stratus from this morning however, it`ll redevelop overnight into early Saturday morning as low-level onshore flow increase this evening. Min temperatures are forecast to range between the upper 40s to mid 50s, around average for early July. As alluded to, expect a grey start to the day on Saturday for most areas as the marine layer expands across western Washington. It`ll gradually decrease in coverage into the afternoon in typical fashion, giving way to scattered mid-high level cloud coverage. Upper-troughing offshore will progress on Saturday as well, bringing the return of 30-40% PoPs, mainly in the North Cascades and the Olympics. The upper-trough will lift north into BC on Sunday as the threat for mountain showers end. But, another round of morning clouds is in the offing. Seasonal temperatures are expected during this time highs in the lower to upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. 41 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday with southwesterly flow aloft and relatively high upper level heights. The temperature forecast has trended higher, now with a 65-85% chance of high temperatures at or above 80F from Seattle metro southward on Monday, and more widespread 75-90% odds of highs above 80F over much of the interior lowlands including the Cascade foothills and valleys on Tuesday. There remains a range of potential outcomes Wednesday through late next week resulting a higher degree of uncertainty with respect to the temperature forecast. Some scenarios could play out with high temperatures Thursday in the low 90s, while others could be in the low 70s. Confidence remains better for continued dry conditions through the entire extended period. The overall message at this time remains to expect increased risk of Moderate (orange)HeatRisk through the early part of next week, followed by a potentially extended period of warm and dry weather. && .AVIATION... Mostly VFR prevails this evening as marine stratus has all but eroded. Still anticipating that marine stratus will redevelop overnight into Saturday morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings are favored with possible IFR particularly along the coast (30-50% chance for KHQM). Any lingering MVFR/IFR cigs should lift by 18-21z Saturday. Generally light winds expected with the exception of some southwesterly afternoon and evening gusts of 15 to 20 knots at KOLM. KSEA...VFR conditions will continue this evening. The NBM is indicating a 15-25% chance of MVFR ceilings developing between 09z- 12z Saturday. If they do manifest, a return to VFR by 18z is favored by current guidance. NW winds early this evening will back towards the SW by 06z. SW winds into Saturday as well between 5-10 kt. && .MARINE... A weak frontal system is crossing the waters this evening, bringing increased low-level onshore flow. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening into Saturday morning for central/eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday and remain in place into midweek. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 41 && .FIRE WEATHER... The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries. 30-40% chance of rain showers exist into Saturday, mainly for the Olympics and northern Cascades but the chance for wetting rain appears less than 10%. Rainfall amounts during this period would generally total less than 0.10". A ridge of high pressure rebuilds into the region Monday and Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place, warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire weather conditions. Some modest cooling is slated to arrive by the middle of next week, but may well be short-lived. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

757 FXUS66 KPQR 110012 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 512 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Generally onshore flow with weak ridging at the mid levels. Will continue to see near to slightly above normal temperatures over the weekend, with the potential to warm further early next week. Overall, will see minimal change in the forecast from day to day though. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday night...Overall very little change in the forecast as the environment remains persistent with minimal forcing for change. The synoptic pattern can be described by a ridge at the surface with a digging trough aloft as a low forms off of the southern portion of the Alaska Panhandle. This low remains nearly stationary through Sunday morning before it slowly shifts inland over British Columbia. Sensible weather wise, this will keep onshore flow in place with marine stratus in the morning clearing in the afternoons. Temperatures will remain elevated in the 60s along the coast and near 80 deg F in the interior lowlands. High resolution ensembles though do suggest a slightly lower temperature on Saturday, likely due to them maintaining more widespread cloud cover through the day, whereas the NBM is showing much less cloud cover. In the case of more dense clouds the high temperature could range from around 65-75 degrees F in Portland (the 10th to 90th percentile). Similar conditions are expected on Sunday, though as the low aloft shifts inland, more warm air will move in at the surface. In the afternoon, 850 mb temperatures will range from 11-14 deg C, and continue to rise through Monday. With the warmer air aloft moving in can reasonably say that temperatures will increase a few degrees Sunday afternoon. The REFS shows the 10th-90th percentile high temperature at Portland around 74-81 deg F. In comparison, the NBM has a skewed higher spread ranging from 77-83 deg F. Either way, there is fairly high confidence in highs being around 80 degrees inland, and around 60-65 deg F along the Coast. The Cascades too will remain warm considering the elevation with a 10% chance of a high of 77 deg F along the western slopes. Winds will continue to be onshore at the surface and aloft with slightly breezier northerly winds along the coast and the Willamette Valley Sunday afternoon with the influence of diurnal heating. -27 .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...High pressure at the surface really begins to take hold over the northeast Pacific on Monday which will trend conditions towards warmer and drier conditions. 850 mb temperatures continue to rise through at least Wednesday with the peak being Tuesday and Wednesday. around 15-17 deg C. There is an extensive ridge aloft building inland, with around half of the ensembles suggesting weak trough forming near the coast line. This pattern orientation will have a significant impact on just how hot conditions will be. The spread of possibilities is quite wide with around a 8-10 deg F spread between the 10th-90th percentile along the coast and around a 12 deg F spread in the interior valleys. Lets dive into a few of the locations for an example of the level of uncertainty we are dealing with. I will note that models have fluctuated quite a bit over the last 24-hours. For Tuesday, Portland is showing a 10% chance of high temperatures of 85 deg F, and equal chances of them being 98 deg F. Elsewhere in the Willamette Valley shows similar ranges. The Upper Hood River Valley ranges from around 85-95 deg F, and Longview 82-95 deg F. Moving into Wednesday though the uncertainty grows significantly. In fact, the range from the coolest high temperature to the warmest (10th to 90th percentile) is around 20 deg for the Willamette Valley and 10 deg for the coast. In fact there is around a 10% chance of highs of 70-75 deg F for the coast, and 100-105 deg F for the inland valleys including some areas like Estacada and Stayton. With this being said though, there are equal chances of temperatures in the lower 80s. Therefore, not biting on any specific outcome in particular and have moreso stuck with the median within the forecast to account for some of the outliers. A similar trend occurs thus far on Thursday. If these temperature forecasts remain, we are looking at the potential for Moderate HeatRisk with a 20% chance of Major HeatRisk for urban areas on Wednesday. -27 && .AVIATION...A weak upper level trough continues to move south towards airspace, turning the flow aloft more southwesterly. This trough will then shift northeastward near the end of the TAF period, keeping precipitation out of the airspace. As of 00Z Sat, marine stratus has pushed into the coast, bringing a mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions to coastal terminals. While guidance suggests that KAST will stay MVFR through the TAF period with only a 10-30% chance of IFR CIGs between 06-10Z Sat, KONP will likely stay under LIFR/IFR conditions through most of the TAF period. Probabilistic guidance suggests a 40-60% chance of LIFR conditions at KONP until 15Z Sat, then a 20-30% chance through at least 00Z Sun. LIFR VIS from fog will likely clear by 19-21Z Sat according to guidance, but LIFR CIGs may linger beyond that time. As for inland terminals, expect VFR conditions to persist until 07-09Z Sat, possibly deteriorate to MVFR CIGs until 18-20Z Sat (50-70% chance), then return to VFR for the remaining of the TAF period. Back building off of the Cascades will be the main driver on whether we see the deep stratus develop inland. Current west to northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt will gradually shift more west to southwesterly and become light towards 09Z Sat. Winds will then pick back up to 5-10 kt and gradually shift more westerly towards tomorrow afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with a 50-70% chance of MVFR CIGs between 09-18Z Sat. Northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt will become light and variable by 12Z Sat, then increase back to 5-10 kt and shift southwesterly by 18Z Sat.~12 && .MARINE...High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters through the weekend, returning northerly winds later Saturday and increasing pressure gradients on Sunday. Chances for gusts up to 25 kt return Sunday afternoon, mainly across the central and southern waters out to 30-40 NM. Seas are expected to remain around 4 to 6 ft as relatively benign conditions persist through the weekend and into the start of next week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

985 FXUS66 KMFR 110021 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 521 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 ...Aviation Discussion updated... .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and elevated wind speeds continue to support fire weather concerns, with a Red Flag Warning in place for Modoc, southeast Klamath, and southwest Lake counties. * Southerly flow and atmospheric instability support chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. * Warm and dry conditions are possible in the middle and end of next week, with little indication of hazardous conditions. && .DISCUSSION...An upper trough around a low pressure system descending the Canadian coast is bringing southwest flow aloft. This is keeping temperatures near or just above seasonal levels across the area. The air moving along this pattern is fairly dry, minimizing the chances for any precipitation activity through the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient between that trough and a ridge developing over the Four Corners area is expected. For most west side areas, this will generally mean some stronger afternoon breezes. For areas east of the Cascades, these winds developing during a period of critically low daytime humidities are presenting hazardous fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in place for parts of Modoc, southeast Klamath, and southwest Lake counties through Sunday evening to address these concerns. Areas outside of the Warning area are still expecting dry conditions and elevated winds, so caution of potential fire- starting activities is encouraged. Please see the FIRE WEATHER discussion below and RFWMFR for more details about the concerns present through this weekend. On Sunday and into Monday, the southwest high shifts northeast and the trough over the Pacific deepens, bringing more southerly flow aloft between the two features. This pattern looks to bring monsoonal moisture to the area early next week, which can help to fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Indeed, deterministic imagery is showing slight chances (10-20%) for thunder east of the Cascades on Monday and Tuesday, with similar chances over western Siskiyou/southern Jackson counties on Tuesday as well. There`s little sign of any especially aggressive activity. Instability triggering these storms looks to be scattered vorticity aloft than anything more organized like a shortwave or front. CAPE values at this point are not excessively high, with modeled values in the 100-250 J/Kg range. And if this atmospheric moisture supports cloud development, that can limit daytime heating which limits convective factors. That said, thunderstorm forecasting is fickle and any changes to the upper pattern can significantly change the forecast. High-resolution data available over the weekend will provide a more accurate picture of what to expect early next week. There`s some disagreement with exactly how the upper pattern shifts for midweek and beyond, but the overall outcome in long-term tools shows no signals for hazardous conditions. While the high pressure system seems to be the overall dominant feature, its position farther east keeps the highest temperatures away from the area. Daytime highs may be 5 degrees or so above normal to end next week. Southwest flow aloft looks to support continuing dry conditions, but a relaxed pressure gradient points to lower wind speeds across the area. -TAD && .AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs...A mix of LIFR/IFR is present along the coast from near Cape Blanco northward. LIFR/IFR will expand and include most all the coast this evening through Saturday morning, gradually lifting to MVFR in the mid to late morning on Saturday and clearing around 18-21z. Areas of MVFR ceilings will spread into the Umpqua overnight and Saturday morning, clearing around 18z. All other areas will remain VFR through the TAF period. However, Medford (KMFR) may see reduced visibilities with areas of smoke spreading into the area from a recent fire 15-20 miles northwest of the the airport. Otherwise, gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected area wide this evening and again Saturday afternoon, strongest east of the Cascades (gusts 20-30 mph). && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Friday, July 10, 2026...Steep seas continue south of Cape Blanco this afternoon while below advisory seas continue to the north. Seas to the south reach below advisory conditions late tonight. On Saturday evening, developing northerly gusty winds build steep seas south of Cape Blanco and spread to the north on Sunday afternoon. These conditions continue into Monday, when winds begin to ease. Below advisory seas may be present in area waters by Monday evening or Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 130 PM Friday, July 10, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue through the weekend, with a Red Flag Warning in place for portions of the East Side and the Modoc Plateau. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue through the weekend. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today. When combined with these gusty winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today through Sunday. Winds will ease overnight and recoveries will be in the good (Saturday morning) to moderate range (Sunday/Monday mornings). Critical fire weather conditions are expected to peak on Saturday when humidities trend lower (low teens/single digits possible), winds increase some (25-40 mph) and these combined conditions are more widespread across the East Side. Conditions improve slightly on Sunday with wind speeds on the lower end of the spectrum and humidities trend ever so slightly higher. Despite this, critical conditions are expected again Sunday afternoon/evening. A potential thunderstorm pattern is shaping up for the first half of next week as the flow becomes south to southwesterly which could send monsoonal moisture into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624. CA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

562 FXUS66 KEKA 102045 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 145 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Troughing Pattern: Deeper coastal stratus pushing further inland, along with more cloud cover early this weekend and cooler afternoon high temperatures. * Slight Threat for Isolated showers/thunderstorms: Monsoonal moisture is forecast to move into the region late weekend. Up to a 10% chance for thunderstorms, mostly in Trinity Alps and Yolla Bollys. * Interior Heat: An upper-level ridge will expand westward late this weekend and into early next week, causing temperatures to rise above normal across inland valleys including Lake, Trinity, and interior Mendocino counties. .SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler temperatures, along with deeper coastal stratus and overall cloudiness is expected for Northwest California early this weekend. Later this weekend and into early next week, an upper ridge will build in causing hotter and drier conditions for the interior with threats for isolated thunderstorms or showers early next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough is sliding eastward affecting Northwest California early this weekend while an upper level ridge over the Southwest US continues expanding westward late this weekend and early next week. Tonight through early Sunday, a troughing pattern will cause deeper coastal stratus overnight which will push further inland up river valleys. With the slight influx of moisture and cooler air from the trough, high temperatures will be slightly cooler, especially for interior areas, for the next couple of days. Some clouds associated with the trough will push through the region Saturday. Sunday and into early/mid next week, the upper level ridge centered over the Southwestern US will aid in advecting monsoonal moisture up to Northwestern California by Sunday/Monday. This could result in isolated thunderstorms over the Yolla Bollys and Trinity Alps. Chances are still less than 10%, but this pattern is still worth monitoring due to potential fire weather concerns. Early to mid next week, the interior will warm up and dry out with the potential for moderate HeatRisk for communities in Lake and northeastern Trinity counties. && .AVIATION...An approaching troughing pattern has aided in mixing out coastal stratus for the afternoon for most coastal terminals. VFR conditions will continue into this evening before a deeper layer of coastal stratus develops and envelops the coast again in the overnight hours. Due to the deepening of the stratus layer, MVFR/IFR ceilings could infiltrate further inland up river valleys. VFR conditions are anticipated for most interior terminals throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE...The surface pressure gradient continues to weaken causing winds and seas to diminish. The southern marine zones will still have small craft conditions into this evening. Calmer marine conditions are anticipated before northerly winds increase again late weekend/early next week causing more concerns for small craft advisory criteria. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

784 FXUS66 KMTR 110442 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 942 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 - Warmer temperatures continue into next week with Moderate HeatRisk early next week - Coastal Flood Advisory for up to 1.7 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways - Potential for thunderstorms and elevated fire weather concerns late this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) Strengthening high pressure over southern California is shifting eastward toward the Desert Southwest. This has result in a gradual warming and drying trend across the interior and higher elevations that will persist through early next week. Meanwhile, a persistent marine layer around 1,000 feet will gradually compress to around 500 feet over the weekend and maintain cooler conditions near the coast. Thus, afternoon maximum forecast temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to 60s near the coast, 60s/70s around the bays and locations adjacent to the bays, and 80s to middle 90s inland. Meanwhile, the warmest interior locations of the Monterey County have a greater than 70% probability of reaching 100 degrees F. Again for tonight, may see some mist/light drizzle at the coast as low clouds push locally inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Otherwise, temperatures look to cool into the 50s overnight into Saturday morning for most lower elevations. However, the higher elevations (especially across the Central Coast) will only cool into the 60s to lower 70s as the aforementioned high pressure continues to build. For Saturday, temperatures continue to warm by a few degrees with mostly Minor HeatRisk with pockets of moderate in the warmest interior valleys. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) Saturday night and into Sunday is when we forecast monsoonal moisture to advect around the western periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest. This area of high pressure will continue to strengthen as it shifts northeastward into the Intermountain West Sunday and into Monday with Precipitable Water values reaching between 1.00-1.25" across much of the region. There remains a great deal of uncertainty in the model guidance with respect to the amount of MUCAPE (lifting mechanism) to support high-based thunderstorms. The mid/upper level moisture will be in place and we have fairly high confidence in this. Thus, expect widespread mid-to-high level clouds to stream across the region with virga (precipitation not reaching the surface). As the moisture profile deepens Monday into Tuesday we expect a slight chance of high- based rain showers across the Bay Area and Central Coast. All that being said, this is considered a low probability, high impact scenario if thunderstorms are able to develop, the fire weather threat is high. We will continue to monitor the potential for high-based convection closely! With respect to temperatures, warm and dry conditions are likely to persist through much of next week when we see more widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the region Monday though Wednesday. The exception will be coastal locations as the marine layer is forecast to remain around 500 feet in depth. Maximum afternoon temperature warm slightly (especially inland) through early next week and so do the overnight lows, this explains the more widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The amount of mid-to-high level clouds may limit how warm the afternoons get but also would limit radiative cooling as well. Beyond Wednesday, the 500 MB Heights and Anomalies indicate high pressure will remain parked over the Four Corners region and/or Intermountain West. This will keep temperatures slightly above seasonal averages with near normal precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 The marine layer stratus bank is regaining organization over the ocean, while inland locations within the marine layer see clouds develop overhead. This combination of cloud formation and advection makes the exact timing of arrival very tricky. The forecast still leans on persistence, but the confidence is onset timing is pretty low. I feel better about the clearing times in the morning, however. Vicinity of SFO...VFR as of this writing, but the walls are closing in. OAK is reporting ceilings of 1,000 feet, with HAF at 700. When SFO does get their ceiling, the height should be in that ballpark. SFO Bridge Approach...Will fill in later than SFO and clear earlier. Monterey Bay Terminals...I have no idea what will happen in the next few hours. The Monterey Bay is clear, but there is a small patch of clouds over the Monterey Peninsula that is occasionally drifting over Jack`s Peak to the terminal and retreating back. Eventually IFR conditions will settle in for the night, but I just can`t say when with any confidence tonight. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 A fresh NW breeze will diminish to moderate this weekend, as seas gradually diminish. These more favorable conditions will continue into early next week before strong winds return late week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 Warm and dry conditions persist through much of next week, especially away from the coastal marine influences which are forecast to persist through much of next week. This will increase fire weather concerns as fuels rapidly dry out. Fire weather concerns further increase late this weekend into early next week as a surge of monsoonal moisture advects northward around the western periphery of the high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. If thunderstorms are able to develop, dry lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds would be the main hazards. The limiting factor is the lack of instability over our region those days. Thus, we will continue to closely monitor these conditions through the weekend. Given the combination of the potential for dry lightning and rapidly drying fuels, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast as it evolves. && .BEACHES... Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for Pacific coast beaches through this afternoon. Long period southwesterly swell will create an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, as well as breaking waves up to 10 feet. This will be especially true for south and southwest facing beaches with moderate to steep slopes along the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz coasts. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for minor high tide flooding through Thursday July 16th. The combination of a perigean spring tide (lunar perigee on 7/13 and new moon on 7/14) enhanced by 3-6 inches of additional water from thermal expansion and accumulated sea level rise since the tidal datum was established (1983-2001) will bring high tides up to 1.7 feet above normal. This will lead to minor flooding of parking lots, parks and roads with isolated closures expected. For context, in June we reached 2.0 feet above normal and in January we reached 2.5 feet above normal. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

519 FXUS66 KOTX 102318 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 418 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the weekend. - Breezy west winds through the Cascade gaps Friday afternoon and evening. - Breezy south winds become more widespread Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds up the Okanogan Valley. - Warming trend early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Strong ridging across the west-central US will lead to continued dry weather, breezy winds, and low humidity. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through this weekend, with warm to hot temperatures across the Inland Northwest into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: Today will be dry with breezy southwest winds thanks to the marine layer in western Washington/Oregon and a weak lee cyclone in southwest Alberta providing a cross Cascades pressure gradient. The Astoria to Lethbridge pressure gradient will peak around 11 mb late this afternoon. Sustained winds will be around 10- 15 mph with gusts around 15-25 mph this afternoon with the strongest speeds in the Okanogan valley with enhancement from diurnal upvalley flow. Will have to monitor the potential for virga and potentially dry thunderstorms tonight and into Saturday morning in far eastern WA and north ID as a very weak wave pivots around the base of the shortwave trough and ejects northeast towards southern BC. The chances are not high for thunderstorms (5-15%), but with a dry subcloud layer, little to no precipitation will reach the surface increasing wildfire risk. The main fire risk will come tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradients from Astoria to Lethbridge increase to around 13 mb and flow strengthens aloft. A dry cold front and a passing shortwave trough will lead to fairly rapid drying in the morning and early afternoon for central and north central Washington, bringing critical fire weather conditions. The Okanogan valley will be the most vulnerable spot for southerly winds as the diurnal upvalley component will assist the background synoptic south winds. There is a 90% chance for Omak to gust greater than 30 mph tomorrow afternoon and evening. Further east into eastern Washington and north Idaho, there will still be elevated fire weather conditions but southwest winds appear to be a bit weaker in the afternoon and evening. Any new or existing fires will be capable of rapid spread. Sunday looks dry and breezy as well with elevated fire weather conditions as high pressure noses into western Washington, but without a lee cyclone in Alberta, pressure gradients are a couple mb weaker around 10 mb. Monday through Friday: Temperatures will return to 5-10 degrees above average next week as monsoonal ridging impinges on the southeast portion of the Inland Northwest. Will have to monitor potential for thunderstorms next Wednesday and Thursday as ensembles have come in better agreement for disruption in the monsoon ridge with a shortwave trough approaching from the Pacific. The specifics of this trough evolution remain unclear at this point, but with PWATs around 120-150% of normal thanks to the monsoonal ridge, this pattern would favor thunderstorms. Confidence in the forecast is even lower beyond mid next week as ensembles are nearly split in half with strong ridging returning quickly bringing hot conditions or staying in a cooler, cloudier regime. /DB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Widespread VFR will persist with a westerly component to the winds across the region. Localized smoke impacts are possible from regional fires but confidence is low. Some passing middle to high clouds expected. Winds become breezy with gusts of 15-25 kts Saturday, developing after 15-16Z and peaking after 18-21Z. Some elevated and mostly dry t-storms are possible late tonight into Saturday morning, with the potential near KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and tracking northeastward toward Sandpoint and Bonner`s Ferry, from 06Z Saturday to 12Z Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions regionwide. Low confidence in t-storms late tonight into early Saturday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 59 88 59 84 54 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 87 61 83 58 91 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 53 85 54 80 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 62 95 63 89 61 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 55 87 56 84 50 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 58 86 59 81 55 89 / 20 0 0 0 10 0 Kellogg 58 86 58 81 56 89 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 58 89 58 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 87 62 85 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 60 89 59 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from noon to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703). ID...None. && $$

331 FXUS66 KPDT 102136 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 236 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions continue through the next week. - Chance of widespread moderate HeatRisk and slight chance of major HeatRisk going into mid next-week possible. - Slight chances (10-20%) of isolated thunderstorms possible through the Blue Mountains Monday to Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite and radar continue to show our expected dry weather conditions continue through the afternoon hours through tonight. The synoptic pattern will continue to be influenced with southwest flow aloft with a trough and low pressure system situated over British Columbia. This will allow to keep our temperatures steady over the weekend to near normal values in the mid 80s to low 90s through most of the lower elevated areas. Tight pressure gradient development from the oncoming trough will bring breezy winds through the Columbia Basin and Kittitas/Ellensburg region (40-70% chance) through the next several days, bringing elevated fire weather concerns across the area. Guidance is in good agreement that the trough just off the coast will retract into British Columbia by Sunday afternoon to early evening, allowing winds to not be as breezy as it will be previously (70-80% chance). After the trough retracts, a ridge will be situated over much of the Great Plains through the four corners, allowing the ridge to influence the pattern more. This will actually allow mid-level monsoonal moisture from Mexico to wrap around into the region by late Monday through Wednesday, allowing 10-20% chances of an isolated thunderstorm possible through the Blue Mountains and Eastern Mountains. The synoptic pattern becomes a bit more unclear going through mid next-week, with models struggling to determine the strength/location of the ridge encompassing most of the lower-48 and a shortwave still situated off the coast still bringing mostly southern wind flow aloft. A stronger/closer ridge dominated set-up will allow temperatures to climb above 100 degrees in places of the Columbia Basin (10-30% chance) while a more trough influenced pattern would allow a more `cooler` set-up. Regardless, meteograms for both the ECMWF and GFS are in great agreement that at least a warming trend will initiate through next week, tho to the extent is still uncertain as mentioned earlier. Notably, widespread chances of moderate HeatRisk with a >60% chance develop Tuesday through Thursday, with widespread 30-50% chances on Friday. Major HeatRisk chances go up to 35% in most places by Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated areas reaching 45% chances of development. Will be a set-up to pay attention to see if HeatRisk will play an issue next week, but the likely scenario at this point is that moderate HeatRisk will develop Tuesday through Thursday and possibly Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... 00Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. At DLS, PDT, RDM, BDN winds will gust 20-25 kts this afternoon evening before decreasing to 10 kts or less overnight. Winds will will increase again to around 20 kts at PDT, RDM and BDN on Saturday afternoon and 20 to 25 kts at DLS. All other sites will be 10 kts or less throughout the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 56 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 62 90 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 60 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 54 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 47 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 55 95 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 54 97 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 59 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ050. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...77

720 FXUS65 KREV 101908 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1208 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds overlap with low humidity for today, bringing isolated critical fire weather and recreation concerns. * Hotter temperatures this weekend will bring areas of Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk for Saturday. * Monsoon moisture surge starting Sunday will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms next week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... July continues to be `so hot right now` with a trend for even hotter temperatures over the weekend. The hot and dry conditions persist today with enhanced breezes resulting in localized critical fire conditions for portions of NE CA and W NV, for more details on fire weather, check out the discussion below. Basin and Range locations will see triple digit heat and even Reno has an 80% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Saturday. This won`t be record- breaking heat, but we will experience widespread Moderate to localized Major HeatRisk impacts. Check out the Heat Advisory in effect for the Nevada Basin and Range, Lyon and Mineral county for Saturday into Sunday morning. Be sure to stay hydrated with water and electrolytes, because we know that milk would be a bad choice. For more heat safety tips and precautions go to weather.gov/heat Following the hot weekend, we reset our focus onto the pattern shift from late Sunday into the rest of next week. High pressure centers over the four corners region which promotes moist, subtropical southerly flow into the desert SW. We don`t know how to put this, but monsoon moisture is kind of a big deal. Forecast soundings highlight precipitable water values starting around 0.20" Saturday then climbing into the 0.50-0.60" range Sunday and nearing 0.80" by Monday. This inundation of subtropical moisture (monsoon moisture surge) combined with the hot temperatures will leave plenty of room for convective activities, including increased potential for heavy rain and lightning with thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may start out on the drier end on Sunday with potential for lightning starts outside of wetter rain cores, but then as additional moisture crawls into the region we will transition to flash flood concerns along with the other thunderstorm risks. Have outdoor work or recreation scheduled next week? If you`re not first, you`re last down the mountain and in danger of deadly lightning. Have a way to receive alerts if you`re in a remote area, and keep an eye on the skies as storms will have the potential to escalate quickly! -Edan && .AVIATION... VFR conditions persist with west/southwest gusts 20-30kt through 3z Saturday. FL100 winds increase to 30-35kt over the Sierra between Sat 0z-9z tonight as surface winds weaken, giving way to some pockets of LLWS and light turbulence over the Sierra. The typical light westerly winds and dry conditions resume Saturday afternoon. Preview for next week: Thunderstorm chances return to the southern Sierra, KMMH, as early as Sunday afternoon. More widespread potential for thunderstorms and showers arrives Monday and Tuesday with a monsoon moisture surge. -Edan && .FIRE WEATHER... * Dry and hot afternoons prevail this weekend, with minimum RH values in the single digits for much of western NV (near 5% at times along & east of US-95) and eastern Lassen County, with 10- 15% for the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and near the OR border. Overnight humidity recovery remain poor for much of western NV and some midslope/thermal belt regions, with maximum RH values only around 20-30%. * Increased upper level SW-W flow over the Sierra this afternoon will boost surface afternoon wind gusts into the 30-35 mph range. Plan on several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions across parts of eastern Lassen/northern Washoe counties southward into the western NV Sierra Front. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from 2 PM to 9 PM. Winds will be elevated Saturday afternoon, but with only 1-3 hours of critical conditions expected. * Monsoon moisture surge forecast for next week from Sunday into Tuesday will usher shower and thunderstorm chances back into the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada, along with much of the Southwest. First round of storms Sunday may be on the dry side with potential for starts outside of wetter rain cores, but storms will quickly become quite wet Monday into Tuesday with a higher heavy rain risk. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-458. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday NVZ001-004. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. && $$

517 FXUS66 KSTO 101932 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1232 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to above-normal temperatures and areas of Moderate HeatRisk into next week, with continued onshore flow moderating overnight temperatures. - Breezy southerly winds and marginally low daytime humidity will bring elevated fire weather conditions today. - Monsoonal moisture to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly clear skies this afternoon across NorCal, accompanied by locally breezy southerly winds in the Sacramento Valley. Weak high pressure to the south and off-shore troughing are continuing to keep upper level heights across NorCal more zonal. Valley & foothill southerly winds and marginally low daytime humidity values are leading to slightly elevated fire weather conditions today. Fire weather conditions will improve as we move into the overnight hours as the main driving factor, the winds, begin to weaken later tonight. The start of the weekend will see high pressure begin to move eastward and into the greater Four Corners region, while amplified troughing remains offshore. Ridge will strengthen by Sunday, allowing for a gradual climb in afternoon high temperatures with areas of Moderate HeatRisk Saturday and Sunday. Ridge moves further north and east by Sunday, with offshore troughing remaining in place, which will allow for monsoonal moisture surges into the area Sunday through at least the middle of next week. 500mb vorticity suggests several shortwave shots of energy moving onshore Sunday afternoon and evening, potentially tapping into the monsoonal flow to bring mainly cloud coverage and/or virga to the Valley and foothills. More robust moisture surge and upper-level synoptic support arrives late Sunday night/early Monday morning, where slight chances of Valley sprinkles have been introduced to the forecast. Better support for convection will remain in the higher elevations in the Sierra and south of I-80, however precipitation and/or t-storms cannot be ruled out along most of the Sierra Nevada as we push into Monday afternoon and evening. While confidence has increased in monsoonal moisture surges, enough instability in the area remains the biggest question on t-storm development for lower elevations in the foothills. Forecast soundings do show inverted-v profiles, however lack of instability in the lower levels may prevent convection from developing. Latest NBM runs have introduced slight (15%) chance of thunderstorms to around 3000 feet along the Sierra Monday afternoon and evening. Uncertainty remains high on the lower elevation development, and for that reason we have decided to hold off on any fire weather products at this time. Monsoonal moisture will continue to push through our higher elevations along the Sierra Tuesday-Thursday, where a roughly 15-30% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorm will exist, with the best probabilities along and east of the Sierra crest. Best chances will remain mainly south of I-80. With warmer temperatures continuing, fuels will start to dry out, so fire weather concerns will continue Tuesday through Thursday. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk enters the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, before widespread Minor HeatRisk takes over Thursday with slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds from south to southwest around 15 to 25 kts in the Sacramento Valley. Surface winds around 15 to 20 kts in northern San Joaquin Valley. Gusts everywhere except the Delta decrease to 12 kts or less around 09z Saturday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

582 FXUS65 KMSO 101837 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1237 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warmest temperatures of the summer for most this weekend through early next week. Elevated heat risk for those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling or hydration. - Low relative humidity and increased west winds will result in elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday and Sunday, especially in southwest Montana. - Monsoon moisture surge will bring clouds, showers, and thunderstorms by Tuesday. Temperatures will run a few degrees warmer this afternoon (Friday) and will continue to warm as we progress into the weekend. Valleys across western Montana can expect daytime highs in the 90s, while lower elevation areas like Hells Canyon and the lower Salmon River valleys will reach triple digits. Heat Advisories have been issued for the Hells Canyon area and the lower Salmon River valleys in Lemhi County, which go into effect tomorrow and remain in place through Sunday. Moderate heat impacts are expected for valleys along and east of Highway 93, meaning individuals sensitive to heat may be affected. In addition to the heat, strong upper-level winds combined with low daytime humidity will create near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest Montana, with a Fire Weather Watch in place for Sunday. For those recreating outdoors this weekend, please prioritize safety: stay consistently hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, avoid strenuous activities during peak afternoon heating, and practice extreme caution to prevent any sparks or fire starts in these dry, windy conditions. A surge of moisture will move into the region from the south, elevating the risk for showers and thunderstorms across western Montana and north-central Idaho, bringing relief from the hot, dry, and windy weekend conditions. The initial shower and thunderstorm activity will bring mostly cloudy skies and erratic, gusty winds due to the very dry air at the surface. By Tuesday evening, the atmosphere will moisten enough for rain to reach the ground. If you have outdoor plans Tuesday through mid-week, plan accordingly. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions with general westerly winds to 10 knots are expected today. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across Lemhi County into southwest Montana, with any developing storms capable of producing strong, erratic outflow winds gusting between 35 and 45 knots. Some high resolution models indicate a slight chance of isolated showers across northwest Montana (including KGPI) overnight tonight. A pattern of hot and dry conditions with increasing afternoon winds will persist through the weekend. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead. ID...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Saturday to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Sunday for Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Sunday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region. && $$

356 FXUS65 KBOI 110005 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 605 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory today and Saturday for lower elevations of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon, but continuing through Monday evening in south-central Idaho. - Breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return late Monday through Tuesday night with the arrival of monsoon moisture. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 227 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 We are maintaining the current Heat Advisory for the Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser River Valley, and southwest Idaho Highlands through Saturday evening, but extending it through Monday evening in the western Magic Valley and southern Twin Falls County. Those areas will remain closest to the main upper level high pressure dome centered over the northern Plains and covering half the US. Southwest flow aloft over the western US will draw monsoon moisture toward our CWA beginning Saturday, with increasing clouds in Oregon beginning Saturday night and in Idaho beginning Sunday, eventually leading to high-based thunderstorms in all southern zones Monday evening. The clouds will keep nighttime temps warm and provide only limited relief from the daytime heat. Afternoon winds will gust to 30 mph in Baker and Harney Counties, and up to 20 mph elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 227 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 The upper-level ridge centered over the Northern Great Plains will be quite strong Monday and Tuesday, driving a monsoonal push of mid/high level moisture and precipitable water values northward into the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase starting late Monday, favoring higher terrain. Initial convection will lean drier and be outflow dominant from preceding dry low-levels, but should soon become heavier rain producers Tuesday into Wednesday as PWAT values reach 1.00"+ (i.e., above 95th percentile relative to climatology) and low- levels moisten. Shower/thunderstorm chances will expand to most areas by Tuesday. Concern will gradually shift from fire danger Monday and Tuesday (due to lightning on dry fuels), to flash- flood potential by Tuesday and Wednesday (especially over burn scars). Meanwhile, a broad Pacific trough is forecast to move southward along the West Coast Monday and Tuesday, but models disagree on when to bring the trough onshore and push monsoon moisture toward the east. The trough evolution will determine whether showers and thunderstorms continue through the rest of the week/next weekend, or gradually decrease around mid- week. Overall, southerly flow is expected to persist through Friday and support hot temperatures area-wide. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 550 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026 VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat this evening until sunset. Surface winds: SW- NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt over SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho this evening, lowering to S-SE or variable 5-15 kt tonight after sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat this evening. Visibility reduced at times by wildfire smoke in foothills NE of KBOI. Surface winds: NW-N 5-10 kt, becoming SE 5-10 kt tonight after sunset. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Areas of reduced visibility from wildfire smoke. High density altitude due to heat, especially Saturday. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt Sat/Sun. Afternoon gusts to 20-30 kt across SE Oregon and mainly the higher terrain of SW Idaho. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ012-014-015-033. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for IDZ016-030. OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Saturday for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....CH

060 FXUS65 KLKN 101653 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 953 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon today through Sunday * Near record heat Saturday afternoon * Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Central and Northern Nevada next week && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure over Southern California will build northward this afternoon. Maximum temperatures this afternoon will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. An upper-level anticyclone will move northeastward into Utah Saturday. High temperatures Saturday afternoon will be around ten degrees above seasonal values. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday. Record heat is expected in Elko Saturday afternoon. Near record heat is anticipated in Ely and Eureka Saturday afternoon. Here are triple digit heat probabilities for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Saturday, July 11th, 2026: Elko - 100% Battle Mountain - 100% West Wendover - 100% Carlin - 99% Winnemucca - 98% Wells - 98% Eureka - 80% Spring Creek - 75% Ely - 70% Hot conditions will persist Sunday as the aforementioned anticyclone aloft progresses northeastward into Wyoming. Southerly flow will develop Monday, pushing monsoonal moisture northward into the Silver State. The northward progression of monsoonal moisture should persist into at least the middle of next week. Mostly dry convection Monday afternoon should transition to wet convection Tuesday afternoon. Look for a daily chance of afternoon thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, with the highest chances of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, July 14th, 2026: Eureka - 48% Ely - 46% Austin - 43% Ruby Lake - 42% Duckwater - 41% Great Basin National Park - 41% Wells - 35% Elko - 34% Carlin - 32% FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon today through Sunday. High forecast confidence in near record heat Saturday afternoon. Moderate forecast confidence regarding monsoonal moisture moving northward into Central and Northern Nevada next week. No deviations from the NBM model. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for at least the next 24 hours. Southwest winds gusts near 20 knots are expected this afternoon into this evening at all terminals, with the exception of KENV. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening due to southwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 6 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions could persist in parts of Northern Nevada this weekend. Isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday NVZ031-034-035-038-039. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ036-037-040-041. && $$ 87