549 FXUS66 KSEW 040304 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 804 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge building into the British Columbia coast today will progress over western Washington by Tuesday. Ridging will vary in intensity through midweek before exiting on Friday. Temperatures remaining above average through much of the upcoming week. A dissipating front will arrive Friday evening into Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The latest forecast remains on track this evening, with several daily temperature records broken across the region today. Tonight, dry conditions are in the forecast area wide as an upper-ridge shifts gently towards the region. We`ll cool off into the lower to mid 50s, offering a bit of reprieve from the heat. The heat will remain into Monday but`ll show signs of relenting. Upper-ridging holding steady over the region, allowing for more large- scale subsidence across the PNW. However, a surface thermal trough previously along the coast will shift inland and cross the Cascades - bringing a return of natural AC in the form of a marine push by the evening. High temperatures will top out well into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the interior but the coast and adjacent areas will cool-down into the 60s. HeatRisk for the most part remains in the minor category on Monday due to the temperatures cooling off nicely in the overnight hours. The aforementioned marine push will bring stratus into Tuesday as the cool-down ensues. Clouds will gradually burn off into the morning to abundant sunshine for the remainder of the day Daytime highs are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, cooler than previous days but still above average. The coast will remain in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level ridge over the area weakening Wednesday, rebuilding Thursday then starts to move east Friday. Low level flow remaining light onshore. Relatively warm air aloft combined with only a shallow marine layer over the interior in the late night and morning hours will keep daytime highs above normal through the week. A little cooling Friday as the ridge starts to exit the area and a weak front replaces it into Saturday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 60s to lower 70s, before settling into the 60s area wide on Friday and Saturday before potentially warming again into early next week. && .AVIATION... North to northeast flow aloft through Monday with an upper ridge located offshore. VFR conditions continue through Monday for the interior locations. A shallow LIFR/IFR marine layer is expected to be reach HQM Monday morning (between 12-15z). Stratus will continue along the immediate coast into Monday afternoon. Stratus will then slowly spread inland Monday night. North surface winds this afternoon will become light tonight and transition more SW on Monday. KSEA...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period (threat of marine stratus reaching terminal remains near 0 for Monday morning). North surface winds 7 to 12 kts this afternoon, becoming NE 4 to 7 kts tonight. Winds will become light Monday morning and transition to SW mid-late morning. JD/HPR && .MARINE... Thermally induced low pressure will lead to weak northerly to offshore flow into tonight. The thermal trough will shift inland on Monday. Onshore flow will then persist through the majority of the week as a surface ridge is positioned offshore. Westerly pushes through the Strait are expected during most evening and overnight periods this week. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca for the initial westerly push Monday night. Seas will range between 7 to 9 feet along the Coast into Monday, with brief 10 foot seas possible for the outer Coastal Waters tonight. Seas will then subside to 4 to 6 feet on Tuesday. JD && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

803 FXUS66 KPQR 032215 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 315 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures cool off tonight after a hot spring day. The upper level pattern shifts east tonight and supporting cooler but still above average temperatures to the area through the week. Uncertainty increases late in the week with the ridge pattern possibly breaking down toward the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tonight...An upper level closed low continues to drift southward, supporting easterly to southeasterly flow off of the Cascades and Coast Range. This downslope flow is supporting temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures currently in the mid 80s to low 90s across the Portland-Vancouver Metro, Columbia River Gorge, and parts of the Cascade and Coast Range Foothills. These hot temperatures are still on track to challenge daily records at climate sites across the area. Refer to the climate chart below for current records and expected highs. Hot forecast temperatures yield Moderate HeatRisk across the Portland/Vancouver Metro including the Tualatin Valley, and Lower Columbia & Cowlitz Valleys, and a Heat Advisory therefore remains in effect for these areas through 11 PM today. Those sensitive to heat or participating in strenuous outdoor activities may be at higher risk of developing heat illness, and should drink plenty of fluids or find a cool place to avoid the peak afternoon heat. Despite hot air temperatures, area rivers and lakes remain cold enough to cause cold shock which can be fatal. Those heading to the coast to avoid the heat should also remain aware of an elevated risk for sneaker waves. Sneaker waves can sweep you off of your feet and dislodge logs causing hazardous conditions. Avoid jetties, rocks, and logs within the surf zone, and never turn your back on the ocean. Clear skies and warming temperatures have increased surface based instability with models showing 50-80% chance for 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE over much of the area. However, precipitation is mostly likely over the Lane and Linn county Cascades and Foothills where synoptic scale forcing from the the upper level low will be greatest. Elsewhere, there is not enough forcing to initiate convection under a strong capping inversion. Any thunderstorms that develop over the Cascades could become strong just based on level of instability but will have little else to support sustained convection. Shear throughout the atmosphere is limited at 15 knots or less. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible but the threat for severe level storms is very low. Temperatures will cool back down into the 60s and 70s after 9 pm, bringing relief from the hot afternoon conditions. Overnight lows are expected to drop back into the low to mid 50s for most locations. -19/36 .LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday...Temperatures are expected to moderate back into the 60s along the coast and in the higher terrain and 70s elsewhere on Monday and through much of the workweek as the ridge axis shifts inland. Highs will still run 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Winds turn southerly with the ridge shifting eastward which will help support chances for marine stratus to develop along the coast. Ensembles show a strong consensus for dry conditions through the workweek for much of the area. However, there is a low (10-20%) chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm over the Lane and Linn county cascades both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Could also see some light drizzle along the coast if the marine stratus is thick enough. Cluster analysis favors the ridge flattening out toward the end of the week as a shortwave rides over the ridge. This could lead to a pattern shift back to cooler temperatures and low chances for light rain. The current forecast maintains temperatures slightly above normal next weekend, however, there is a decent amount of uncertainty in the forecast. -19 && .AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail at all NW OR and SW WA terminals on Sunday under high pressure. Winds along the coast expected to be northwest to westerly less than 10 kts. Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over the western slopes of the central Oregon Cascades, but confidence in terminal impacts remains very low. The more likely scenario is convective outflow debris in the form of high cloud cover may develop in the late afternoon to early evening. After 03-06z Mon, a wind reversal will see low-level flow turn southerly across the region, spreading from south to north through 12z Mon. At coastal terminals, a renewed push of marine stratus will most likely see a return to MVFR/IFR cigs, returning by 03-06z Mon at KONP and 09-12z Mon at KAST. This marine push looks strong enough reach inland to KEUG and the southern Willamette Valley by 09-12z Mon with a 70-80% chance of MVFR conditions and 50-60% chance of IFR conditions. Additionally, there`s a 30-40% chance MVFR cigs reach as far north as KSLE and a 15-20% chance they reach KPDX and surrounding terminals. Expect inland locations to improve to VFR by 18-21z Mon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected throughout the period beneath largely clear skies. Northeasterly flow around 5-8 kt will turn northerly around 00z Mon, then ultimately southerly by 10-12z Mon. Convective debris in the form of high cloud cover may increase this afternoon and evening, but no terminal impacts are anticipated. There`s a 15-20% chance of marine stratus with MVFR conditions impacting KPDX and surrounding terminals after 12-16z Mon. -03/36 && .MARINE...North winds continue this afternoon with occasional gusts up to 18-20 kts possible north of Cape Foulweather, calming this evening. A southerly wind reversal begins this evening south of Cape Foulweather, with the wind transition spreading from the southern waters to the northern waters overnight. A period of elevated south winds form along the inner waters late tonight through Monday morning with gusts up to 18-20 kts. South winds continue into Tuesday and will bring a resurgence of marine stratus tonight through Tuesday night which could result in overnight or early morning drizzle or light rain. Seas around 6-8 feet through Monday, falling to 4-5 feet on Tuesday. Northerly winds return towards the latter part of the week with persistent seas of 4-6 ft. -03 && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures for Sunday, May 3 Location Forecast Record Year Astoria 78 81 1992, 1944 Vancouver 90 84 1944 Portland Int`l 91 89 1992 Hillsboro 91 82 2017 McMinnville 86 87 1992 Salem 86 86 1992 Eugene 83 83 1944 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ108-109-111- 112. WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ204>207. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

116 FXUS66 KMFR 040345 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 845 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms moved through more areas west of the Cascades this evening, and there were storms that developed half inch hail and brought heavier rain. Some 12-hour totals as of 8:45 PM reached 0.40"-0.50" in western Jackson County and eastern Josephine County. The shower activity continues this evening, but the thunderstorm threat has decreased. Tomorrow is still on track to see showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in Northern California and along/east of the Cascades. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026/ ..Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... AVIATION...04/00Z TAFs...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in an easterly mid-level flow will continue through around 04Z this evening from the Coast Range eastward, with a focus for storms in Josephine and western Siskiyou counties. Expect gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Also, along the coast, persistent LIFR/IFR conditions in stratus and fog will continue through much of Monday morning. Marine stratus is expected to lift to IFR for the late morning and afternoon hours on Monday before fog and low ceilings fill back in Monday evening. Besides the coast, stratus is expected to filter into the Umpqua Valley, with MVFR likely at Roseburg from around 10Z to 19Z Monday morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail with mid and high level clouds. Another round of shower/thunderstorm activity on Monday afternoon and evening, with east to northeast storm motion will be restricted to northern California. MARINE...Updated 545 PM PDT Sunday, May 3, 2026...An extended period of relatively calm conditions has begun, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 10 ft through Friday. Light south winds and fog are expected through Monday night, with gradually diminishing seas. Moderate north winds return by Thursday, with the return of the thermal trough. Stronger north winds are possible Saturday into next week. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 159 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026/ DISCUSSION...Radar returns are showing activity developing over southeast Klamath County early this afternoon, following westward flow wrapping around a cutoff low. Activity looks to increase later into the afternoon, especially over Siskiyou County. Northwest flow aloft is expected to move activity over Jackson and Josephine counties. Curry and Douglas counties may see some activity as well. Overall rainfall amounts are fairly negligible, but periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible under any thunderstorm. This may be more likely in the Illinois Valley, which has estimates of 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall through tonight. Thunderstorms may also bring erratic gusty winds as well as lightning. Rain showers may continue into tonight but should dissipate by early Monday morning. Another round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday afternoon and evening. With the cutoff low farther to the east, most activity is expected over Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Southern Lake and Klamath counties may also see some activity. Modeled CAPE values are somewhat moderate, in the 400-600 J/Kg range. This is enough to support additional thunderstorms but doesn`t imply severe activity. Rain showers are expected as well, with amounts in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range possible along the Lake/Modoc southern border. An upper ridge settles into place through the day Tuesday and looks to remain in control of conditions through the rest of the forecast period and beyond. The Oregon coast is forecast to be about 5 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 60s. Inland areas are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Areas east of the Cascades as well as the Umpqua Valley have forecast highs in the high 70s to low 80s, while other west side valleys could reach the mid 80s. A passing front could flatten the ridge somewhat, bringing a bit of relief into Friday and Saturday before temperatures rebound on Sunday. NBM probabilistic data keeps Medford out of the 90s for this week, but has 40-60% chances for next Sunday and into the start of the following week. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

420 FXUS66 KEKA 032200 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 300 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered storms will continue through Sunday evening. Some weaker storms may linger on Monday under generally cool and cloudy conditions. Warmer and drier conditions build midweek. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered and some isolated strong thunderstorms (15-25% chance) over the the interior through Sunday evening. -Cooler and cloudy conditions Monday followed by warmer and generally calm conditions by midweek. && .DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have already built across the area early Sunday afternoon, a few hours earlier than high resolution models forecast. A particularly strong storm produced and estimated 0.5 inches of rain and 0.5 inch hail. A cutoff low offshore will continue to pull moisture over the area and support moderate instability through Sunday evening. Easterly wind will push any storms that form over interior mountains towards the coast. At the same time, broad coverage of high clouds has generally reduced surface heating and might limit overall storm coverage. Despite the instability, a stubborn albeit very lifted marine layer has maintained grey skies all along shore. High resolution models suggest thunderstorm activity will peak between 3 pm and 8 pm. Chances remain greatest (25% chance) in Humboldt, Trinity, and Del Norte counties with little chance (< 10% chance) in Mendocino and Lake Counties. Though storm coverage may be scattered, only a few isolated storms have much chance of approaching severe conditions. That said, any storms will have the potential to generate gusty winds and dangerous lightning. Drier conditions will quickly return by Monday and Tuesday. That said, there is a very slight (10%) chance of some weak lingering thunderstorms over the interior on Tuesday. Colder air being pulled from the northeast aided by lingering clouds will briefly cool interior temperatures into the 60s Monday. Clouds and valley moisture will limit any frost concerns. The east wind will likely help erode and shallow the marine layer, but most models show stratus persisting through the early week. Benign and weak high pressure will build late in the week, bringing slightly warmer than average temperatures but otherwise dry, seasonable, and calm weather. There is chance for marine layer clearing out around Wednesday before rebounding later in the week as a marine inversion reforms under the interior heat. /JHW && .AVIATION...Ceilings remain steady along the North Coast today. Above this maritime cloud deck, convection is occurring. This increases the likelihood of thunderstorms passing over coastal terminals through the evening. These thunderstorms are forecasted to be above the stubborn stratus along the coastline. Rainshowers are possible through the evening and tomorrow morning as a low pressure center funnels moisture over NW CA. Southerly winds continue for the coast as gusty winds exist inland. Expected LIFR-IFR for coastal terminals and MVFR-VFR for inland terminals. && .MARINE...Overnight into Sunday morning, a cold air mass entered the western seaboard, this cold air will disrupt the surface pressure gradient allowing the northerly winds to weaken down to gentle breezy conditions. This will begin an extended period of lighter winds and smaller seas through next week as relatively light winds flow over the coastal waters. From Sunday through the week, the GFS wave model shows two main swells impacting the coastal waters, the first is a long period, westerly swell building up to 6ft@15s and another is a NW swell of 4ft@8s. Minimal impact is expected next week from fresh, short period waves. && .BEACH HAZARDS...This morning, a long period northwest swell with periods between 17-20 seconds arrived, posing a moderate increase to the risk of sneaker waves for coastal areas. A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino coast Sunday. Sneaker waves are anomalously large, unexpected waves that sweep across beaches without warning. There can be up to 30 minutes of smaller waves before a sneaker wave arrives to the shoreline. Choose your recreation wisely by avoiding steep beaches and jetties as well as staying much farther back from the ocean than normal. Never turn your back on the ocean! && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

925 FXUS66 KMTR 032353 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 453 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026 - Cooler temperatures through Tuesday with a chance for drizzle and light rain, mainly along the coast and the North Bay - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026 (This afternoon through Monday) It`s a cloudy morning across the Bay Area and Central Coast with the stratus deck extending far inland, with a strong upper level low moving over the region allowing for remarkable expansion of the marine layer, to the point where it no longer makes sense to talk about a marine layer depth. KMUX radar returns are also showing light rain showers and drizzle across the San Mateo Peninsula, parts of Santa Clara County, and the Monterey Bay region, with the potential for additional drizzle where the radar beam is overshooting the low level processes, such as the North Bay and southern Monterey County. Drizzle chances diminish after around 1 PM, and some breaks in the clouds may develop across the inland regions this afternoon, but this is a lower confidence forecast. Have decreased the high temperature forecast across the region in light of the potential for continued cloudiness through the day. Highs in the lower to middle 60s are expected in the Bay Area interior valleys, the lower to middle 70s in the southern Salinas Valley, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the coast and Bays. Conditions are broadly similar on Monday as the upper level low moves over the state, with additional cooling expected in the southern parts of Monterey County as highs reach the middle to upper 60s. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through 11 PM this evening due to long period northwesterly swell, an increasing risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. See the BEACHES section for more information. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) The upper level low continues to move across California through Tuesday, resulting in a continuation of the cool temperatures, extensive stratus decks, and a slight chance for light rain and drizzle across the region, but mainly at the coast and within topographically favored locations. The latest model output shows the low descending into southern California, allowing for a band of moisture to wrap around the low and bring some wetting rains to the North Bay Monday night into Tuesday morning. The current forecast shows rain totals of up to a quarter of an inch in the interior regions of the North Bay with totals a few hundredths of an inch closer to the coast and extending into the Bay Area. Of note, high resolution model output continues to show the possibility of higher rain totals, up to around half an inch in the North Bay, which might be possible if there are some particularly strong showers across the rain band. Flooding concerns remain minimal and focused on areas of exceptionally poor drainage or where drainage pipes are blocked or clogged. By Wednesday, the upper level low moves into the Great Basin and southern Rockies with ridging building back behind it, leading to a warming and drying trend in the region with highs rising to the 70s and 80s inland. The CPC extended outlook shows that temperatures above the seasonal averages are likely to persist through the middle of May, while precipitation totals lean below the seasonal average. For context, the seasonal average high in downtown San Francisco is around 64 degrees, while the seasonal average precipitation total for the May 10 to 16 period, as covered in the CPC 8-14 day outlook, falls a shade under two tenths of an inch for the same station. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 Still decent amount of clouds around the region, but thankfully mainly AOA 3k feet and SCT to BKN. Expect this to continue through this evening. Some lowering is likely after sunset into the MVFR range. CIGs lift again tomorrow with daytime heating and an upper low passing overhead. The upper low may kick off a few showers, but mainly for STS and APC Monday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...Expecting persistent CIGs from 3000-3500 feet through Monday. Winds ease overnight, but increase again Monday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR CIGs this evening and then lower to MVFR by tonight and through tomorrow AM. VFR will redevelop Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 438 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026 An upper level low over the region will keep pressure gradients light near the surface allowing for continued light winds across the coastal waters today into early next week. A long period swell is passing through the waters with generally light seas. NW wind and seas will begin to build later in the week and into next weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1004 AM PDT Sun May 3 2026 Long period northwest swell, with periods of 15 seconds or above, is now being reported on the offshore buoys and has either made it to the coast, or will arrive imminently. These long period swells increase the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, particularly as the period between swell impulses results in lulls of around 20 to 30 minutes before larger sets of waves arrive. Due to the dangers, a Beach Hazards Statement for all Pacific coast beaches remains in effect until 11 PM Sunday night. Never turn your back to the ocean! Don`t be fooled by calmer seas; observe the waves for at least 20 minutes before approaching the coast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...RW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

230 FXUS66 KOTX 032245 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 345 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds developing down the Okanogan Valley, Washington Central Basin and north Idaho Panhandle Purcell Trench tonight into Monday. - Minor to locally moderate HeatRisk through the middle of next week. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Dangerously cold water temperatures poses a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia for anyone who unexpectedly falls in. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. && .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue through at least May 9th despite a brief cool down on Tuesday. Expect some breezes Monday and Tuesday as cooler air moves in from Canada. Longer range predictions favor elevated chances of warmer than normal temperatures for the middle of May as well. Conditions will be dry outside small chances for mountain showers in the north Idaho Panhandle near Canada Wednesday and again Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: Dry flow out of the north will be the primary weather driver with a noticeable increase in north and northeast winds later tonight into Monday for east Washington and the north Idaho Panhandle. Latest wind gust speed probabilities of 20 to 25 mph are 50 to 70% over a good portion of the region. Gusts around 30 mph look more isolated in nature and will be focused in some windier channels such as the Okanogan valley down toward the Waterville plateau. Areas extending from Moses Lake to Spokane/Coeur d`Alene will be breezy as well. On Tuesday the winds abate some in the Okanogan Valley but the Central Basin to the Idaho Panhandle will still be breezy with gusts 20 to 30 mph. No precipitation is expected and warm temperatures cool 3-5 degrees on Tuesday before warming again into Wednesday. The weather wave out of the north driving the increase in winds will also bring in some thicker high cover Monday. Wednesday to Thursday: Wednesday afternoon looks breezy again this time from the west with the east slopes of the Cascades and Waterville Plateau seeing potentials gusts 25 to 30 mph again. A high pressure ridge begin to build in Wednesday but there is one minor wave still to come out of southeast B.C. Canada that will clip the north Idaho Panhandle. There is a 20% probability of showers and even a thunderstorm or two generally north of Sandpoint Idaho Wednesday afternoon and early evening. There is a less than 15% chance that showers could develop further west into the northeast corner of Washington. Thursday looks to be in between waves under high pressure and dry with temperatures again above normal in the middle 70s to middle 80s. Friday into Sunday... Quick moving Pacific low pressure waves continue to periodically flatten the high pressure ridge. The best chances for any precipitation mainly in the mountains looks to be Saturday. Breezy afternoons and evenings especially around the east slopes of the Cascades, Waterville Plateau and central Basin can be expected. The temperature trend going into next weekend will be a bit cooler with lower 70s to lower 80s. TC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Few to scattered high clouds will continue to pass through the region. There will be a noticeable increase in north winds down the Okanogan Valley which will fan into central Columbia Basin tonight into Monday. Similar winds are forecast Monday morning for KCOE which will spread into the eastern Columbia Basin. Outside the increase in winds, aviation impacts will be minimal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions and increasing north to northeast winds across the region. Wind gusts could be stronger than forecast for locations like KOMK, KSZT, and KCOE. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 76 48 73 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 49 73 46 70 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 76 47 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 52 81 50 76 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 45 81 45 79 45 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 48 70 45 67 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 49 71 45 69 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 52 86 52 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 59 86 58 82 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 85 52 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

748 FXUS66 KPDT 032227 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 327 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Thunderstorms chances this afternoon 2. Dry and above normal temperatures through the week 3. Pattern change next weekend will bring precipitation back to the region && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows mostly clear skies over the forecast area. Some cumulus are beginning to pop up over the ridgelines of the eastern mountains and central OR. The upper level low has moves south of the region but is still slightly influencing the southern portion of the region. Radar shows a few returns with a cell that has embedded lightning flashes within. Otherwise, clear skies and dry conditions will persist through the day today. Models show the upper level low to be to the south of the region with some upper level flow influencing portions of central OR. CAMs models show there to be increased probabilities of 10-20% for thunderstorms through central OR and portions of the eastern mountains today beginning after 2 PM and persisting through 9 PM. An unstable atmosphere coupled with forecast model soundings showing MUCAPE values between 800-1200 J/kg, lifted indices between -3-(- 5), lapse rates of 8.5-9.5 C/km with effective bulk shear of 10-20 kts, thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Deterministic models show the upper level low to continue to move east lessening its influence of the region each day. Models also show an upper level ridge moving into the region as well. This will keep the region under dry and warming conditions. Yesterday saw a temperature record broken at Pasco and based on persistance and ensembles, chances of seeing the record break again to day with a high of 91 in Pasco is 20-40%. As for the remaining areas, in house calculations show much of the region to be 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal with some areas seeing s high as 25 degrees above normal. Temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys and along the foothills of the Blues with 80-90% of the raw ensembles in agreement. The remainder of the region will see low to mid 80s with mid 70s along some of the higher terrains. These conditions will persist through the week with high confidence (70-90%). Models are in some agreement with a pattern change expected to arrive Friday. Clusters show that the main area of disagreement is with the position and timing of the system. Models show there to be increased chance of precipitation along the Cascades and an increase in winds as the system moves across the region. Confidence in the pattern change is moderate (60-70%) with confidence in the precipitation and the increased winds being low/moderate (40-60%). NBM also shows the system will bring temperatures down a bit with in house calculations showing temperatures to be 5-7 degrees above seasonal normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. CIGs will be SKC for many sites with BDN/RDM seeing mid level clouds as the Cu field builds. Winds will be light and below 10 kts except around thunderstorms. KRDM/KBDN are experiencing breezy winds between 10-12kts with gusts 15-20 kts. BDN/RDM will see a slight chance (10-20%) of isolated thunderstorms developing and persisting through 9 PM. 90 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 52 83 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 56 83 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 53 89 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 55 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 52 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 51 83 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 43 81 44 78 / 20 0 0 0 LGD 48 78 49 75 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 45 78 47 76 / 20 0 0 0 DLS 58 85 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90

451 FXUS65 KREV 032029 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 129 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A weather system continues to bring showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures today. Be prepared for recreation and travel impacts due to gusty winds, rain, hail, and mountain snow. * Cool, showery weather with additional thunderstorm chances expected Monday and Tuesday. Snow may impact travel over mountain passes above 8000 feet Monday. * Warm and dry weather returns mid-week. && .DISCUSSION... Today: A Pacific closed low resides west of the Central CA coast today. Forecast guidance keeps this low from making landfall today, but has it moving closer to the coast throughout the day. At the surface, showers and thunderstorms have already kicked off in portions of the Sierra and Sierra Front according to the latest radar returns. Shower chances for the rest of today look to be around 30-50% in NE CA, 70-90% in the Sierra, 50-70% in the Sierra Front, and 20-60% in the W NV Basin and Range. While the entire region sees some risk for thunderstorms today, the Sierra and Sierra Front portions have the best chances of 25-45% this afternoon. Potential storm hazards today include lightning strikes, small hail & ice pellets, erratic & gusty winds, and brief periods of heavy rain. Storm motion looks to be quick (~15-25 kts to the N/NW), so this will lower potential flooding concerns today. Severe thunderstorm chances do look low (<5%), but cannot be ruled out completely as the latest RRFS run shows convective parameters that could support it especially around the Greater Tahoe area this afternoon. Please have a way to receive the latest weather information especially if you have outdoor plans for the rest of today. Area-wide precipitation chances look to diminish to around 10-30% overnight with the exception of portions of W NV south of US-50 which sees a 40-70% chance continuing around midnight. Snow levels also will drop to around 8 kft overnight which will change precipitation type to snow in higher portions of the Sierra. Higher elevations in Mono County potentially have a 40-50% NBM probability of 1+ inches of snowfall by Monday morning. Monday and Tuesday: Model guidance has the aforementioned Pacific upper low take a southwest track along the CA coast on Monday. The low then begins a more eastward track staying south of the CWA as it opens up into trough on Tuesday. With this pattern aloft, precipitation chances will continue on Monday (60-90% across the region) and Tuesday (20-60% along and south of I-80, around 20% or less to the north). Thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon look to be around 20-30% areawide with Tuesday seeing the same chances along and south of I-80 and <15% to the north. Similar storm hazards to those on Sunday will be seen on both days with severe potential (storms containing 58+ mph wind gusts and/or large hail of 1+ inches in diameter) being low, but still possible. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors. Area high temperatures cool down a bit on Monday (NE CA and W NV valleys in the middle 50s to middle 60s range, Sierra Communities in the upper 40s) before rebounding a bit on Tuesday. Another concern is the potential for mountain snow at some of the Sierra Passes in Mono County as snow levels look to drop to around 7.5-8 kft during Monday and then down to around 7 kft overnight Monday. This may allow for accumulating snow at recently open Sierra Passes that could cause some hazardous traveling conditions. While the high sun angle at this time of year may inhibit some of the accumulation, the latest NBM probabilities show around a 45-65% chance of 6+ inches of snowfall at the Sierra Crest in Mono County by late Tuesday morning. As active weather expects to continue into the first half of the week, please watch for forecast updates as they become available. Wednesday and beyond: As the trough is absorbed into a larger trough out in the E CONUS, an upper ridge moves over the W CONUS starting Wednesday. This ridge looks to be part of an omega blocking pattern through much of the rest of the work week. This will allow for dry conditions to prevail for the rest of the week with temperatures warming to around 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. Currently, NE CA and W NV valleys have highs forecast in the lower to middle 80s while Sierra communities have daytime high temperatures in the 70s beginning Thursday and going though the weekend. There is some model uncertainty in the upper air pattern over the weekend though as the GEFS shows a weak trough moving through the NW CONUS while the ECMWF Ensemble shows this feature being merging with a trailing Pacific low. While the dry pattern and the above normal temperatures expect to continue over the weekend, the GEFS solution may result in a slight uptick in winds though there is low forecast confidence at this time. -078 && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms continue within the region today. Most area TAF sites see around a 30% chance for a thunderstorm to occur through 04/03Z which would cause IFR conditions. The exception is at KMMH which would has similar -SHRA chances bringing MVFR restrictions during this time. Potential hazards with these storms include frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds around 35 kts, and small hail (less than one inch in diameter). Severe thunderstorm chances are low today (<5%), but are still possible (storms with gusts up to 60 mph and/or large hail of one inch in diameter). Shower chances lessen overnight, but increase again in the morning as more shower and thunderstorm chances are in the forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Lower cloud heights are expected today, which may cause mountaintop obscurations. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

283 FXUS66 KSTO 031902 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1202 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for the mountains, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley. A few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. - Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday for the mountains, Valley, and foothills. - Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop end of the week and into next weekend, with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... ...Sunday through Tuesday... Upper level system is tracking across the Southwestern United States bringing moisture, instability, and sufficient shear to the region. Breaks in the cloud coverage at times has helped increase instability across the area. Current satellite and radar have a few cells developing in the mountains around Hwy 50 and tracking NW. HIRES guidance has picked up on this and started to initialize further development around 20-21z and continuing through the evening hours. Shear profiles show sufficient speed and directional shear to support thunderstorm growth. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with hail up to 1 inch, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief heavy rain rates. Make sure you have a way to receive alerts this afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances shift down into the Valley overnight and into tomorrow morning with scattered rain showers Monday morning. Chances for thunderstorms arise once again during the afternoon and evening, with a few stronger storms possible. We will continue to see rain and thunderstorm potential into Tuesday, but chances are on the lower end as the main upper level system shifts further away from the area. At the highest peaks south of Highway 50 there will be chances for snow tonight through Tuesday, with minor accumulations possible. Temperatures through Tuesday will be on the cooler side across the area, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s Monday and the 70s on Tuesday. ...Wednesday and beyond... Conditions dry out as we move into Wednesday and continue into next weekend. An upper level ridge builds and amplifies over the western United States end of the week into next weekend. This increases our temperatures and drys out conditions across the area. Minor HeatRisk is expected across the Valley Wednesday, but becomes more widespread into the foothills and mountains by the end of the week. Minimum RH values start to drop into the 20s across the area, with a few isolated values in the teens. By next weekend, we are seeing increasing confidence temperatures will reach into the 90s, with the probabilities of seeing over 95 degrees 50-60 percent Saturday and Sunday. Potential for Moderate HeatRisk Saturday. && .AVIATION... BKN to OVC skies through the TAF period, with thunderstorm chances near RDD and RBL this afternoon and evening. Winds will begin to increase out of the southwest at 10-15kts for the Sacramento sites this afternoon and go light and variable overnight. Near 08z-13z chances for rain develop through the Valley affecting each site through the end of the TAF period. Ceilings go MVFR during this time. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

388 FXUS65 KMSO 031911 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 111 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front arriving Monday morning will bring cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph across western Montana. - High pressure builds by midweek, bringing a dry warming trend with valley temperatures returning to the 70s and 80s. We are currently sandwiched between a low-pressure system spinning off the California coast and another broad system over eastern Canada. This keeps our region under a generally quiet northwest wind flow aloft. However, enough daytime heating and lingering moisture will spark a few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best chances for these are focused across southwest Montana and down into north- central Idaho. A few of these storms could produce brief gusty winds, but most areas will remain dry. A noticeable weather shift arrives early Monday morning as a backdoor cold front pushes westward over the Continental Divide. This front will bring cooler air and abruptly shift our surface winds to the northeast. Expect breezy conditions across western Montana throughout Monday, with northeast wind gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph. These gusty northerly winds will persist into Tuesday, eventually spilling into the valleys of north-central Idaho during the afternoon hours. By midweek, weather models are in strong agreement that a ridge of high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest. This weather pattern will shut off the gusty winds and bring another warming trend. Deterministic models show disturbances moving around the ridge and into the Northern Rockies with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday and Friday, most valley locations will see afternoon high temperatures climbing back into the 70s, with the lower valleys of north-central Idaho reaching the low 80s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail across the Northern Rockies airspace through the next 24 hours. The primary concern for this afternoon and evening will be isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over Lemhi County and southwest Montana Further north and west, including KMSO, KGPI, and KHRF, expect light, terrain-driven winds for the remainder of today. However, a significant wind shift is anticipated early Monday morning. A cold front will cross the Continental Divide, bringing sustained northeast winds and gusts up to 25-30 knots to western Montana terminals by late Monday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

421 FXUS65 KBOI 032351 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 551 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures through next week. - Isolated PM showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, mostly along the NV border and across south-central Idaho. - Windy Monday and Tuesday afternoon, especially in southeast Oregon and the Snake Basin in Idaho. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 208 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026 A ridge of high pressure will build over the Western US and British Columbia, bringing temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal to the region through the short term period. A low pressure system will move onshore over California today, bringing a push of showers and thunderstorms near the Nevada Border and over high terrain in Baker/Valley Counties. This low will then migrate east, continuing the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) to the areas near the Nevada border on Monday and Tuesday. Very dry air near the surface, shown in inverted-V forecast soundings, will limit precipitation from these showers and thunderstorms. Wind and lightning will therefore be the primary hazards, with outflow gusts up to 40-50 mph from any of the strongest showers/thunderstorms. These gusts will also bring patchy blowing dust, especially near dry lake beds in Eastern Oregon. Winds will increase on Tuesday with northerly flow strengthening over the region. The highest winds will be seen in Eastern Oregon with sustained northerly winds around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, with ridgetops seeing strong winds up to 45 mph. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 208 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026 The ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify over the region through the work week, bringing mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures through Friday. A shortwave passage over Montana-Wyoming late Wednesday into Thursday will increase potential for mountain showers and thunderstorms in southwest Idaho, but confidence is low (<10% chance). Another shortwave will quickly move in from the west on Friday. This will bring a slight reduction in temperatures (about 5 degrees cooler) on Saturday, with a 10-30% chance of showers over high terrain in southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon. High pressure will then rebuild over the West on Sunday, bringing the potential for Treasure Valley temperatures to reach the upper 80s and maybe even 90F (5-10% chance in Boise area). && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 548 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026 VFR with SCT cumulus over high terrain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening over SE OR and high terrain of SW ID. Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40 kt with blowing dust are likely near showers and thunderstorms. Patchy valley smoke in the Boise Mountains tonight. Surface winds: NW-NE 5-15 kt tonight through Monday morning, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon/evening. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW-NE 15-30 kt NW-NE 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 8-13 kt shifting to variable less than 6 kt overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....SA

981 FXUS65 KLKN 031921 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1221 PM PDT Sun May 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of valley rain and high mountain snow beginning this afternoon, persisting through Tuesday * Thunderstorms expected both Monday and Tuesday afternoons * Daytime high temperatures in the low and mid 80s by Friday && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A storm system will begin to impact Northeastern Nevada tonight, resulting in periods of precipitation lasting through Tuesday night. Daytime temperatures during this period will be in the low to mid 70s and snow levels are expected to remain up at 8-9000 feet, meaning precipitation will be rain for the vast majority of the area. A few thunderstorms are also expected to mix in each afternoon as daytime heating increases convective potential. The highest accumulations will be found along a line from northwest Nye county to north-central Elko county, where up to half an inch is possible through Tuesday night, but the entire coverage area has at least a 15% chance of showers during this time. The day with the best chance for measurable precipitation and highest totals is expected to be Monday. Upper level ridging is anticipated after this system clears Tuesday night, which will lead to dry conditions and warming temperatures beginning Wednesday. As a result, high temperatures are expected to reach the 80s by the end of the week, roughly 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will also be well above normal, with lows in the upper 40s expected compared to normal lows in the 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in precipitation through Tuesday. Moderate confidence in afternoon thunderstorm potential. Low to moderate confidence in ridging for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV through the next 24 hours. KELY and KTPH can also expect prevailing VFR conditions, however winds are expected to gust 20-30KT and there are chances for a stray shower or thunderstorm to temporarily impact the terminal at both sites. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94