926 FXUS66 KSEW 231100 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system moving out of the area to the south early this morning. Upper level ridge offshore will rebuild today and remain in place through Saturday. The ridge will weaken Sunday with another weak system brushing the coast Monday. Ridge moving inland the middle of next week which brings up the possibility of another weak system reaching Western Washington. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite imagery shows weak system moving south out of the area early this morning. Skies clearing behind the system with the northern edge of the cloud cover near Olympia at 2 am/10z. Cloud cover earlier has kept temperatures mostly in the 30s. With a couple more hours of clear skies temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s over the Northwest Interior. Cloud cover associated with the weak system will be out of the area before sunrise. Just patchy fog in the cloudless areas. System did stir up the lower levels of the air mass a touch. Will be a close call on whether there is enough time for fog to form over the Southwest Interior as skies clear there this morning. Outside of the fog coverage sunny skies today. The system did bring a little cooler air into the area so highs will only be in the mid 40s. Upper level ridge offshore rebuilding later today into tonight. The ridge will remain in place through the weekend but weaken a little Sunday. Low level northerly flow will weaken tonight into Saturday and remain light Sunday. Cross Cascade gradient remaining in the -4 to -6 mb range. Not strong enough to prevent freezing fog from forming in the late night and early morning hours in the usual places like the Southwest Interior. Story the next couple of nights will be the cool overnight low temperatures. Most places in the 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning with the colder locations getting into the teens Sunday morning. A cold weather advisory Sunday morning for the Southwest Interior, Southern Hood Canal and Eastern Kitsap county ( lows in the teens ) may be needed. Highs both days in the lower to mid 40s. The current Seattle dry streak sits at 10 days through Thursday. This is the 9th time Seattle has had a 10 day or more dry streak in January since records started at Seattle-Tacoma airport in 1945. The last time Seattle had a 10 day plus dry streak in January, last year 13 days from January 17-29. Before last year the last time was 2013, January 11-22. The record January dry streak is 15 days, January 16-30, 1963. There were 3 days in that streak with snow flurries that only amounted to a trace of precipitation on those days. The longest streak with zero precipitation, no traces, is 12 days January 11-22, 2013 and January 19-30, 1945. Felton && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another weak system moving through the ridge Sunday night into Monday for a slight chance of precipitation mainly west of the Puget Sound Monday. Ridge temporarily rebuilds offshore Tuesday then moves inland Wednesday and Thursday. Model blend introduces chance pops as early as late Tuesday night as the ridge moves inland. Model trends have been to disrespect the ridge in days 6 and 7 frequently the last few days. Ensembles similar to model blend with 20-30 percent of the solutions wet Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge continues to move east. Even if a system does get into the area in the middle of next week it will be splitting which will not amount to much in the way of precipitation. Plenty of locations still below freezing Monday morning. Lows warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s for the remainder of the period. Highs in the mid 40s Monday warming into the mid 40s to lower 50s for Tuesday through Thursday. Felton && .AVIATION... Generally high end MVFR this evening with localized areas of IFR in low stratus. Low clouds will continue to expand across the western Washington terminals this morning, with some potential for patchy fog. Conditions will improve to VFR by early this afternoon as low level northerly flow scours out much of the low level moisture. Another round of widespread MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog is on tap overnight into early Saturday morning. Surface winds through the period will generally remain out of the N/NE at 3 to 8 kt. KSEA...Ceilings bouncing between MVFR and VFR early this morning, with conditions expected to deteriorate to IFR after 12z this morning. Increasing low level northerly flow should help erode it by the mid to late morning today. Surface winds N/NE 4 to 8 kt throughout the TAF period with another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings possible early Saturday morning. 15 && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build back over area waters today as a thermal trough builds northward along the coast. Offshore flow will return and may be breezy at times, especially along the central and western Strait of Juan de Fuca and along the gaps in the coastal terrain. Fraser Outflow will increase early this morning and will also bring breezy northeasterly winds to portions of the Northern Inland Waters on Friday. While gusts to around 20 kt are the most likely scenario, there`s around a 30-40% chance of gusts to 25-30 kt and if this increases, a small craft advisory may be needed. Offshore flow will persist through the weekend, but will be weaker. A weak frontal system looks to reach the waters by early next week, allowing for winds to gradually shift back to the south across the area waters by Monday. Southerly winds look to increase Tuesday into Wednesday as another, stronger frontal system approaches the region. Seas will hold steady between 3-6 ft through the weekend, but look to build closer to 10 ft near the middle of next week as stronger systems move back into the area. 15 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding in the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

388 FXUS66 KPQR 231232 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 432 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected to continue through most of the weekend as high pressure stubbornly holds over the region. Gusty winds persist through the Columbia Gorge. Expect cold overnight lows in the low to mid 20s through Saturday night in the lowlands. Clear skies and light winds away from the Columbia River Gorge will result in frost and/or freezing fog formation for a decent swath of the interior lowland valleys and coast range Valleys. Chances for precipitation return by the middle of next week, but details on the exact timing and impacts remain rather uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Fairly benign weather across the PacNW as high pressure dominates the region. A weak short wave trough moving through the amplified pattern is bringing some mid level cloud cover and widely scattered showers but no substantial precipitation. Expecting the trend of cold overnight/early morning temps to continue into the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to be generally be in the low to mid 20s with apparent temperatures (feels like temps) making it feel like temperatures are in the low 20s. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for most locations aside from the Cascades and along the coast. Prolonged exposure to cold conditions may lead to frostbite and hypothermia. Cloud cover is expected to clear today, leading to clear skies tonight and another night of cold temperatures. There is a 70-90% chance apparent temperatures fall below 25 degrees or lower across the majority of the Willamette Valley, Coast Range, and SW Washington lowlands including the outskirts of the Portland/Vancouver metro area. Probabilities around the metro are slightly lower at 50-70%. The higher elevations of the Upper Hood River Valley could also meet their Cold Weather Advisory criteria of wind chills at or below 15 degrees for at least 4 hours with a 65-90% chance. Cold overnight to morning temperatures will continue into at least Monday morning as high pressure persists, though the potential for Cold Weather Advisory criteria decreases substantially after Saturday night. Stagnant air remains a concern with the persistent ridge and associated subsidence inversion. This is leading to air quality concerns through Friday morning as mixing heights will remain low and transport winds will be weak. Therefore, an Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect through noon Friday. Transport winds increase Friday afternoon and remain above Air Stagnation criteria through Saturday through mixing heights will still be on the low side. Transport winds do decrease the second half of the weekend and another advisory may be warranted, mainly for the Willamette Valley depending on how long conditions are expected to persist. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models and their associated ensembles are starting to show a pattern shift next week as a trough digs across the Pacific. This may weaken the anchored ridge enough to finally see a substantial change later in the week. Ensembles agree that a weak short wave and associated cold front will pass through the region during the Sunday night through Monday night timeframe. However, precipitation is almost negligible for the area with at most a few hundredths. Even if this system brings little in the form of precipitation, it will still play an important role in breaking the ridge down and setting the stage for more beneficial precipitation toward the middle/end of next week. Ensemble guidance remains in agreement that a moderate, Pacific low will finally break down the strong ridging over the region by midweek, though details are still unclear. At this time, model ensemble guidance is pointing towards a moderate PoP (35-60% chance) with relatively low/moderate QPF (0.10-0.50 inches total) event. At this point, there are no major impacts expected with this weather system, and if precipitation does occur, it would be more beneficial than impactful, especially after the recent dry spell. -19/42 && .AVIATION...Mid and high clouds are expected to clear through the day as high pressure builds back into the area. Northerly winds expected to increase through the Willamette Valley while winds over the west side of the Cascades and Coast Range turn offshore. Winds will remain gusty in the western portion of the Columbia River Gorge. Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost areas with light winds which may accumulate on surfaces. Frost will dissipate with the sun before redeveloping again tonight. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain easterly with gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon. Gusts around KTTD will be slightly higher around 30-35 kt. -19 && .MARINE...Rather benign conditions continue across the coastal waters. East to northeasterly winds increase through Friday evening as the thermal trough along the coast expands northward and high pressure rebuilds inland. Winds generally increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, but isolated gusts to 25 kt will be possible extending from gaps in the coast range and across the coastal waters. Winds ease again through the weekend as pressure gradients decrease. Weak low pressure drifting offshore will cause the winds to turn southerly by Monday. The next frontal system is likely to approach the waters by the middle of next week returning increasing chances for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Wednesday. Seas are expected to persist at around 4 to 6 ft with wave periods varying between 11-15 seconds through the weekend. Not much change to the overall sea state into early next week. -19/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ104-105- 108-109-114>118-123. Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ104>125. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ204>206. Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ202>210. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

923 FXUS66 KMFR 231041 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 241 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been lingering over the forecast area for the better part of two weeks will finally start to break down, or at least move farther west, today. A weak shortwave is passing over the area this morning, and some very spotty and very light returns are appearing on radar east o the Cascades, but very little of this, if any, is making it to the ground. The shortwave will, however, help to mix the atmosphere up a bit, weakening the valley inversions, and hopefully allowing some of the more fog-prone areas to clear out this afternoon. Where cloud cover exists this morning, low temperatures have been warmer than previous days. Where the skies are clear, mainly to the south over northern California, lows remain colder than normal. The pattern continues to change with a strong surface high building east of the Cascades and east to west wind flow developing during the day. The air will become fairly dry with some cooler air trying to settle into the valleys tonight and Saturday morning. This is the day of higher concern for colder overnight lows with the potential for freezing temperatures along the coast. The NBM has a 50% chance of temperatures <32 around North Bend on Friday night and Saturday morning. Therefore, we decided to issue a freeze watch for the immediate coast in Douglas and Coos Counties. The main impact is for outdoor plants and some outdoor plumbing that could freeze overnight. High pressure will rebuild by Sunday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline around Sunday night. This wave will come in dry, although we should see some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower along the Oregon coastline around Monday afternoon and evening. The big change is anticipated around Wednesday as a cold front pushes into Oregon and northern California. Ensemble data is showing precipitation hitting the region with the heaviest rainfall to our south. There is still a rather large number of members that keep us dry and not much if anything falling in southern Oregon and northern California. So while there could be some light snow in the mountains, it`s not looking great for accumulating snowpack right now. Overall, the dryish trend continues, although the weather pattern will likely become more progressive by next week. && .AVIATION...23/12Z TAFs...A mostly dry frontal system is moving through the area, producing mostly VFR cloudiness with ceilings lowering from around 8kft down to around 3-6kft. Precip chances remain low or non-existent in most places, but wouldn`t be surprised if a little light rain falls along the coast north of Cape Blanco or stray snow flurries occur over the higher terrain of the East Side. Meanwhile, LIFR ceilings persist in and around the notorious fog/low cloud "bowls" of Grants Pass/Roseburg. These ceilings will be difficult to break given the strength of the inversion this morning. However, the system arriving from the north could allow for just enough mixing today for conditions to improve to VFR. Model guidance isn`t much help in this regard seeing as it doesn`t even acknowledges the existence of the fog/low clouds right now. But, since the overall air mass will be drying out, we`re optimistically allowing for a period of VFR conditions there late in the afternoon. Here in Medford, cloud cover (6-8kft) coming into the area from the north could be timed well enough to preclude LIFR fog development. Even if patchy fog does occur, it wouldn`t likely last too long. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Friday, January 23, 2026... North winds will gradually increase today. Seas are steep and hazardous to small craft south of Cape Blanco, especially beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds will gradually diminish and shift to the northeast, but also spread to areas north of the Cape on Saturday. Conditions are expected to improve early next week. A more active pattern is expected to follow later next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for ORZ021. Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ023- 024-026-029>031. Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for ORZ024. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-370. && $$

004 FXUS66 KEKA 230933 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 133 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Clearer and more dry conditions will settle across the area this weekend with some particularly cold mornings with lows near freezing. Conditions will slightly warm and moisten next week with increasing chances of wetting rain late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Amplified high pressure over the Northeast Pacific (NEPAC) continues to build into the region, while a cold upper-level trough moves toward the Great Basin today through Saturday. This pattern is promoting dry north- northeasterly flow developing across the interior as the surface pressure gradient tightens near the coast. Gusty northeasterly winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected to develop this evening through Saturday in response. This will allow for more consistently clear skies and very dry conditions with daytime RH possibly dipping into the teens, especially at some higher elevations. Winds are forecast to gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday. Increasing dry offshore flow and clearing skies will enable cold overnight conditions tonight and Saturday night, bringing a chance of near- freezing or freezing temperatures to coastal areas and in the wind- sheltered coastal valleys tonight and Saturday night. Granted places where winds stay up all night, temperatures probably will not even fall below 50F. With dew points in the mid teens to mid 20s, calm winds in the valleys and clear skies overnight, sub- freezing temperatures are a sure thing in interior valleys, especially Trinity and northern Mendocino. Cold weather advisories for wind chill may also be a factor Saturday and Sunday mornings with winds around 5 mph and minimum temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s across the interior valleys./ ZVS .Extended Discussion...(Monday through Friday)... Conditions will slightly warm but greatly moisten early next week as a weak warm front alongside a push of southerly winds crosses the area around Tuesday. Increasing midlevel clouds will generally limit the high temperature potential. There is high model agreement that a weak and quick moving trough will cross the area behind the warm front sometime around Wednesday. This trough will bring the first real chances of wetting rain since the first week of January. Rain will most likely be relatively evenly spread across the area from North to South with only a slight focus on the North Coast. There remains very high model spread in terms of rain amounts. For low elevations, model means over 48 hours are around 0.2 to 0.5 inches, though there is a 10% chance of greater than 1.5 inches or even greater at higher elevations. At the same time, the bottom 30% of models still show no rain at all. In any case, more moist conditions are essentially certain, even should no rain occur, and even the very high end of forecast will pose little to no flood risk given the recent dry period. Long range ensembles show generally good agreement that a wetter pattern will then continue through the end of January. Again, model spread remains high with round of light to moderate rain being most likely through next weekend. /JHW && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Stratus is being observed across Humboldt Bay along with the Eel River Valley and the Anderson Valley. This deep marine layer is keeping ceilings high, with MVFR conditions being observed at ACV. The weak marine inversion will likely keep ceilings MVFR with brief dips to IFR early this morning. Scattering and clearing is possible, as well, and most models do show this as a possibility. The deep marine layer will bring a low chance of impacts to UKI (30% chance). Any impacts are likely to be IFR to MVFR and clouds will lift and scatter shortly after sunrise. Clear skies are expected by mid-morning Friday. North winds are increasing aloft near the coast and low level wind shear is possible in southern Humboldt County, especially around the King Range starting early this morning and continuing through the day Friday. Breezy northerly winds are possible along the coast in the afternoon, especially at CEC where gusts could exceed 20 kts. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase and will peak this afternoon and evening. Gale force gusts are possible in the outer waters, while gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible nearshore in the afternoon. Very steep seas of 9 to 12 ft will build today and peak in the evening and overnight. Winds ease tonight into Saturday and combined seas fall to 5 to 6 ft by Saturday afternoon. A series of mid-period west swells fill in over the coming days, each peaking at around 5 ft. Winds turn southerly by Sunday, but gusts are likely to remain below 20 kts at least through early next week. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

592 FXUS66 KMTR 231216 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 416 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 401 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Morning fog across some Bay Area Valleys and around Monterey - Gusty offshore winds across higher terrain of the North Bay Saturday - Potential weak to moderate storm system in the middle of the next work week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 401 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 (Today and tonight) Reducing pressure has brought a stronger return of the marine layer tonight. This along with a reduction of high clouds, some moisture from the Central Valley, and a slight feed of moisture from the south has allowed for a good spread of stratus and developing pockets of fog. Temperatures have slowed their cooling and are almost plateauing for the areas affected by the marine layer. High-resolution short term models show that these clouds and pockets of fog will be slow to erode. The next developing ridge will begin to push weak northerly flow into the North Bay by the the late morning. The slightly drier air will help to clear the North Bay, while cloud cover farther to the south lingers into the afternoon. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than previous days because of the prolonged cloud cover, but only by a few degrees. The approaching ridge will compress the marine layer and reduce the additional feeds of moisture tonight, leading less low cloud cover and fog across the area. However the more fog-proned valleys (Sonoma Co, Salinas Valley ect) will still have good chances for fog returning tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 401 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) The eastern portion of the developing ridge will continue to build into the region into early Saturday, calling for stronger northerly to northeasterly (offshore) flow. The change in winds will lead to widespread drying into Saturday, and a mixing out of the marine layer. Morning clouds and fog will be much quicker to erode across the region and that earlier clearing along with the generally drier airflow will cause slightly warmer temps for Saturday. Higher elevations look to see breezier and gustier winds as the offshore flow increases into Saturday morning and through the day. Extra adjustments were added to the overnight forecast package to better capture the flow and speed changes, especially in the higher peaks of the North Bay. Localized gusts around 50 mph will be possible on some of the peaks, but luckily it won`t be widespread. Humidities in these elevations will suffer from these increased and drier winds, leading to some fire weather concerns with a few areas falling below 20% humidity. Winds look to reduce into that night, but humidities will struggle to recover on the higher peaks. Low cloud cover and fog will struggle to form Sunday morning because of the dry flow, but high clouds enter the area into that afternoon, leading to cooler high temps. The ridge looks to flatten into Sunday evening, with a zonal jetstream pattern taking its place, and offering more onshore flow. However the jetstream looks to snap back to a quick ridge into the next work week. This means temperatures will and some bounces up and down by a few degrees, and low cloud formation will be spotty. Despite the quick ridge development, high clouds look to move through the region as a trough develops to the west. The trough formation is well-argeed upon between the longer term models, but the trajectory is a matter of debate. More models point to a cold front, and maybe a weak low pushing through the area, bringing good chances for widespread moderate rains by the mid week. However, the GFS and its ensemble members seem keen on this trough getting pushed up against the ridge ahead of it, and placing all the moisture well to the north. The GFS output looks a bit less firm than other models and the national blend, but is something to keep in mind as the longer term models update. For now, the official forecast places rain chances in the middle of the next work week along the initial front with additional chances possible beyond the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 416 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 Stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR-MVFR/ will gradually mix out to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Tule fog from the Central Valley may also extend into the East Bay this morning. Stratus and fog redevelop tonight and Saturday morning per recent HREF output. Vicinity of SFO...Currently it`s VFR however stratus /IFR/ will develop during daybreak then lift to MVFR by late morning. VFR-MVFR tonight and Saturday morning. Mainly light and variable wind. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /LIFR-IFR/ lifting to MVFR by late morning. IFR stratus ceilings tonight and Saturday morning. Mainly light and variable winds except light onshore winds in the afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 401 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 Strong northerly breezes will prevail today with near gale force gusts in the northwest waters. Seas will build to 8-12 feet across exposed waters today through early Saturday. Conditions will improve this weekend with a gentle breeze and moderate seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

265 FXUS66 KOTX 231139 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 339 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low clouds clear out today (Friday) and colder temperatures over the weekend with lows in the teens. - Weak winds and a return of a more stagnant atmosphere under a ridge of high pressure next week. && .SYNOPSIS... A weak push of northerly winds will bring drier air and clear out the low clouds today. Colder over the weekend. A ridge of high pressure for next week will keep the Inland Northwest dry with a slow modification of temperatures back to above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday night: A backdoor shortwave trough of lower pressure is pushing south across the region today. This is part of a more massive disturbance that is delivering bitter cold across the upper Midwest. That Arctic air is going to largely miss us and remain east of the Great Divide. We will see a tiny fraction of this cold, and much drier modified Arctic air. The impact will likely be positive and welcomed for us across the Inland Northwest as it will scrub out the persistent low stratus deck that has plagued the region for the past week or so. Satellite imagery shows this clearing making its march southwestward across northeast Washington. The prognoses is for the sun to begin poking out across the Upper Columbia Basin around late morning, and then begin to scrub out the moisture into the east slopes of the Cascades in the afternoon. The northerly gradient isn`t particularly strong, but will feel a slight brisk wind down the Okanogan Valley, Purcell Trench, and across the Upper Columbia Basin sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts at times to around 20 mph. Skies look to remain clear to mostly clear through the weekend. The northerly gradient will relax completely overnight Friday into Saturday. Weak winds and clear skies will result in strong radiational cooling and some of our coldest temperatures that we`ve seen thus far this winter. That`s saying a lot considering that lows Saturday morning are only expected to dip into the teens. For context, Spokane has only seen one day this cold so far and that was back on December 28th with a temperature of 15 degrees. Temperatures will be similarly cold Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows again dipping back down into the teens. Monday through Friday: More of the same is expected next week with a ridge of high pressure dominating our weather pattern. The longwave ridge offshore will migrate eastward over the region. The trend from the model ensembles is for a stronger and less progressive ridge. The National Blend of Models (NBM) has lowered precipitation probabilities for the latter half of next week where ensemble cluster analysis indicates 40-50% of the members shifting the ridge axis slightly east of the Inland Northwest around Friday into Saturday. This would start to place the region in a southwesterly flow pattern and allow for moisture to move up into the region. There`s around a 30% chance that this shift occurs a bit early Wednesday into Thursday. Probabilities for measurable precipitation is small at around 30% over the mountains by Friday. A question to consider is how stagnant will the atmosphere be under this ridge for next week? The air mass will be drier and we will start out with clear skies. A caveat will be Monday into Tuesday where a weak shortwave rides over the top of the ridge. This will essentially do nothing at the surface: we won`t see an increase in winds and the moisture that moves in with this wave will primarily only be higher up in the atmosphere. This higher cloud cover for Sunday night will help limit that radiational cooling and the strength of the version, but we will still remain fairly stagnant. Our most stagnant period looks to be Tuesday through Thursday. It may be enough to satisfy the minimum requirements for seeing a 72 hour period of air stagnation advisory. Temperatures are expected to moderate through next week and warm up above normal by around the middle of next week. /SVH && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: A backdoor shortwave trough of lower pressure is pushing into North Idaho and northeast Washington, bringing drier polar continental air into the region. As this drier air moves in, low clouds are (finally) eroding from northeast to southwest. The clearing has just reached KGEG and KSFF as of 1130Z and will progress to KPUW, KLWS, KMWH, and KEAT through the morning and into the early afternoon. Winds will be a little breezy in the Okanogan Valley (KOMK) and Purcell Trench (KSZT to KCOE) with sustained 8-12 kts of wind out of the north and northeast through Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to return to all TAF sites by 15-18Z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 30 16 29 17 30 20 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 30 15 29 15 32 20 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 30 18 29 18 32 23 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 34 22 33 21 37 26 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 31 14 29 13 29 17 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 28 16 27 17 30 20 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 27 15 26 15 32 21 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 36 19 32 18 34 21 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 34 22 33 21 31 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 34 19 32 18 31 22 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

843 FXUS66 KPDT 231121 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 321 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: 1. Freezing Fog and light freezing drizzle early today. *Special Weather Statements Issued* 2. Low clouds and chilly temperatures linger through weekend. 3. Mountain snow possible Monday, better chances Wednesday. Current radar and infrared satellite imagery shows dry conditions as the stubborn stratus layer continues to drape across the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys. Pockets of freezing fog are also being observed via webcams across portions of North-Central and Central Oregon, primarily along the US-97 and 197 corridors. This is in response to the upper level ridge that has been parked offshore over the last several days. An upper level shortwave is dropping along the front side of the ridge, allowing for some high level clouds to ride over the lower stratus deck that is attributing to a feeder-seeder situation. This has resulted in light freezing drizzle across the Blue Mountain foothills and lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, and light snowfall over Central Oregon overnight into the early morning hours. As a result, a thin glaze of ice has accumulated on roadways and surfaces. Of particular concern are bridges, overpasses, sidewalks, and lightly used corridors. A special Weather Statement has been issued through the morning across Central/North-Central Oregon and the Blue Mountain foothills addressing these travel concerns, so use caution if traveling through these areas this morning. As previously mentioned, an upper level shortwave is passing over the area today, ushering in a cooler airmass as flow aloft becomes more from the north. This synoptic feature is fairly weak and is not coupled with a frontal boundary that would effectively scour out the Columbia Basin and bring about and end to the stratus deck. There should be slight improvement across adjacent valleys and lifting of the deck over the Basin as a slight uptick in winds will promote low level mixing, but full removal is not expected as a more substantial system will be needed. The lingering cloud cover and infusion of cooler air will lead to a slight cooling trend over the weekend with highs in the upper-20s to low 30s and lows in the upper teens to low 20s across the Columbia Basin, Blue Mountain foothills, Central Oregon, Columbia Gorge, Wallowa County, and the Yakima/Kittitas/Grande Ronde Valleys. The upper level ridge currently located offshore will begin to push onshore Saturday into Sunday as a stronger shortwave erodes the backside of the ridge and flattens it as it progresses onshore into Monday. This will lead to upper level flow becoming more from the west as the shortwave approaches and passes on Monday. Even through this shortwave is expected to be stronger than the one today, it still does not possess a significant frontal boundary to fully scour out the stratus deck across the Columbia Basin. However, there is a slight chance (15-20%) that it will bring enough moisture to allow for light snow showers across the Cascade and Blue Mountains during the morning and afternoon hours. The upper level ridge rebuilds behind the departing shortwave late Monday into Tuesday, before shifting east as another shortwave slides onshore. This one does look to have a frontal boundary associated with it, albeit weak. This secondary system may bring with it widespread rainfall to lower elevations of the Basin, as indicated by 56% of ensemble members. There is significant uncertainty with both system early next week, as ensembles struggle with shortwave strength and timing as only 19% of ensemble members highlight greater than a 40% chance of measurable precipitation over the Cascades and greater than a 30% chance of measurable precipitation over the northern Blue Mountains on Monday. 79% of ensemble members suggest measurable precipitation across our mountain zones with the system later in the week. At this time, the second system looks more promising for mountain snowfall, but the effectiveness of lifting the stratus deck over the Basin is still uncertain. 75 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Low stratus with several TAF terminals reporting <4000 feet of CIGs through the night. Low ceilings will continue to impact the region through the night as the stratus deck continues to dominate the pattern. A few sites (PDT/RDM/BDN) are seeing visibility issues coupled with the low CIGs, but not expecting quarter mile of fog as of yet, but ceilings will remain in LIFR territory through the late morning hours today. Otherwise, winds remain light and calm for the most part with general <10 mph winds dominating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 28 22 28 23 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 30 23 30 23 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 34 25 33 25 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 31 26 30 25 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 32 25 32 25 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 28 23 27 23 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 27 20 29 20 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 30 23 30 23 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 27 20 28 21 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 34 26 34 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...95

672 FXUS65 KREV 230931 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 131 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty northeast to east ridge winds return tonight through Saturday night, with chilly breezes for western Nevada valleys. * Saturday will be the coldest day of the upcoming week, with hazardous wind chills near or below zero degrees for Sierra backcountry areas. * A slow warming trend will bring back the valley inversions next week, then by mid-late next week a weak weather system brings chances for light showers, mainly near the Sierra. && .DISCUSSION... As the cut-off low swings to our south, a deepening trough will envelope the central U.S., which is our next main feature in the forecast. For today, we are in between these two features, with high clouds across southern Mono County on their way eastward. To our northeast, this retrograding frontal boundary may kick up a few snow showers across northern Nevada, as clouds fill skies over the Basin and Range. Breezy north to northeast winds will bring a colder air mass into view for tomorrow night into Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be around 5-10 degrees colder than today, and with the gusty north to northeast winds, will feel much colder. If your plans for Saturday involve getting out into Sierra backcountry, bring plenty of warm clothing to prevent frostbite or hypothermia. Saturday night the cold air will linger, before Sunday sees a bit of moderation in our high temperatures. The trough that dug south and brought the cold air via the polar front jet will meander east, and coupled with that long-gone cut- off low as a moisture source, will bring headaches to our friends back east, especially across the southeastern U.S. Once the trough moves along, high pressure returns for next week, bringing back the light winds and valley inversions. This will usher in a gradual warming trend, with mostly dry days ahead. The only exception is a shortwave that will bring low chances for showers to northeastern California and some portions of northwestern Nevada Wednesday-Thursday. For now, chances range 10-20%, but amounts look light to nearly nothing, so showers may be more of a nuisance than causing accumulations. HRICH && .AVIATION... * North to northeast winds today, with gusts to 25 kts across ridges near the Tahoe Basin. Besides patchy morning fog near KTRK, expect VFR conditions for all terminals today. * Tonight, a band of low clouds may bring MVFR CIGS to Sierra terminals and mountain obscurations near western NV terminals. Wind gusts will also increase for western Nevada terminals tonight, with winds peaking Saturday. Northern to northeasterly gusts will approach 45-50 kts across Sierra ridges late Saturday into Sunday morning. Turbulence and LLWS may become issues late Saturday into Sunday, particularly along the western slopes of the Sierra. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

313 FXUS66 KSTO 222126 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 126 PM PST Thu Jan 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley low clouds/fog potential through Friday morning. - Fog potential diminishes Saturday-Sunday as north to northeast winds increase Friday night into Saturday. Strongest gusts over the mountains. - Dry weather prevails this weekend, followed by renewed fog potential early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today Through Friday... Current GOES-West satellite imagery shows diminishing fog and low clouds across the Valley this afternoon with scattered mid to high level clouds aloft as an upper low begins it`s path across southern California. We allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at noon, although patchy areas of fog still persist across the Valley. Fog chances return tonight into tomorrow morning. Probabilities for visibilities 0.5 mile or less are 60 to 80% from the central Sacramento Valley and southward, with the highest probabilities in the southern Sacramento Valley. Remember to use low-beam headlights when driving through fog, exercise caution, and slow down. As northerly winds increase Friday afternoon, any fog present should quickly diminish. Strongest winds won`t occur until Saturday, but breezy winds will be present Friday afternoon and evening along the western side of the Sacramento Valley, and in the mountains. ...Friday - Early Next Week... The upper low will trek across southern California over the weekend, weakening the upper level ridge and initiating an offshore flow pattern. As a result, north to northeast winds continue to increase on Saturday. The strongest winds are expected over the Sierra and along the western portion of the Sacramento Valley (I-5 and westward) where probabilities of gusts greater than 30 mph are 60 to 80%. Relative humidities trend lower over the weekend as well, primarily over the mountains, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley. No precipitation is expected with this weekend`s system. Conditions for widespread fog are less favorable through the weekend as a result of these north to northeast winds. However, as ridging builds back in early next week the potential for Valley low clouds/fog returns. && .AVIATION... Lingering patchy MVFR/IFR conditions in central/southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and northern San Joaquin Valley through 22-23z Thursday. FG/BR expected to re-develop after 03z-06z Friday with similar aerial extent as today except coverage may extend into the northern Sacramento Valley. Surface winds will be below 12 kts. Increasing north-east winds after 03z Friday, with gusts 15-25 kts across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley and up to 30 kts over the mountains. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

460 FXUS65 KMSO 230904 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 204 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A transition to colder and blustery conditions continues today as an Arctic boundary slides into western Montana. - Freezing Spray Potential (Flathead Lake): Gusty northeast winds and high lake levels may generate freezing spray along the south and west shores of Flathead Lake this morning. - Weekend Uncertainty: A sneaky round of light snow cannot be ruled out with a disturbance dropping out of Canada this weekend. The primary story for today is the arrival of the cold front and the associated winds gusting 20-30 mph in favored valleys including Missoula and Flathead. Flathead Lake: East and northeast wind gusts of 15-25 mph are interacting with unseasonably high lake levels creating wave heights sufficiently high to generate freezing spray. There is an increased risk for ice accumulation on docks and shoreline property. There is also an isolated risk for slick spots to develop on roadways immediately adjacent to the lake (such as Hwy 93 through this morning. Winds and wave heights will taper off this afternoon. Water Vapor satellite imagery reveals a swath of moisture currently rotating around the ridge in the Northern Territories of Canada, aiming south toward the Northern Rockies. Models often handle these northerly flow disturbances poorly, and there is little consensus on the timing, or depth of this moisture as it arrives this weekend. If the moisture holds together and is deep enough, there is potential for a surprise light snow Saturday or Saturday night. If the moisture shears apart upon encountering the ridge, we will simply see increased cloud cover and perhaps a few flurries along the Continental Divide. Bottom Line: While snow is not in the forecast, don`t be surprised if Saturday ends up grayer and flakier than the raw model output suggests. We expect a return to drier conditions as the weekend disturbance exits. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the 20s. If skies clear Sunday night, Monday morning lows could plunge well into the single digits or below zero in the colder valleys. Monday through Thursday: The forecast remains low confidence regarding the next pattern shift. The models continue to diverge on how a Pacific trough will interact with the cold air established over the continent. Current model trends favor a drier solution, suggesting the high pressure will block most of the Pacific moisture. However, should the Pacific energy override the cold dome, a period of overrunning light snow or freezing rain remains possible mid to late week. We have maintained low-end PoPs to account for this possibility. && .AVIATION...Gusts of 20-30 kts will be common in favored valleys including KMSO and KGPI into this afternoon. KBTM and KHRF begin the period with MVFR ceilings, but the influx of dry, easterly downslope flow will effectively scour the valley stratus, transitioning all terminals to VFR by this afternoon. Mountain obscurations currently affecting north-central Idaho through west- central Montana, and low ceilings in north-central Idaho are expected to improve rapidly this afternoon as ceilings lift and scatter with incoming drier air. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

638 FXUS65 KBOI 231102 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 402 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Low clouds and patchy fog persist in the valleys below 5000 feet MSL today. Cooler air aloft will begin to move into the area today, helping to mix out the low clouds trapped in the valleys from north to south. The forecast models seem to be too aggressive in mixing out the stratus, and could linger longer than forecast. Low clouds and fog remain in the Columbia Basin and in the valleys of British Columia, and are persisting longer than guidance has forecast. Of course if the stratus holds on in the valleys, we may not see much wind or mixing today. Forecast confidence is low on the evolution of the low clouds and dry air will continue move into the area from the north. It remains to be seen if the cooler dry air can erode the stratus deck by late Saturday night with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees below normal in the short term. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A slight warming trend ensues as warmer air aloft moves into the area on Sunday and Monday. A ridge will strengthen over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday with a temperature inversion redeveloping. By Thursday the ridge weakens allowing for a 10 percent chance of showers over the mountains, but this is trending lower. Temperatures will remain at or below normal in the valleys with above normal temperatures in the mountains. && .AVIATION...MVFR-IFR stratus in the valleys generally below 5000 feet MSL. Local LIFR near KTWF KJER KBNO. Surface winds VRB 10kt or less. KBOI...MVFR ceilings continuing, brief improvement to VFR late afternoon, but MVFR to IFR returning after sunset. Surface winds VRB 10kt or less. Weekend Outlook...Areas of MVFR-LIFR low clouds and fog Saturday clearing to VFR in the afternoon, except near KTWF KJER. Surface winds NW 5-15kt Sat afternoon. Sunday VFR with light winds. Low clouds and fog lingering near KJER KTWF. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning IDZ011>014-016-028-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ early this morning ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA

141 FXUS65 KLKN 230853 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1253 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1251 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 * A weak weather system will usher in cooler temperatures for the weekend with upper ridging building back in for next week * Temperatures will cool to at or below normal levels beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend * Temperatures are expected to warm back to above normal levels by early next week with dry weather returning && .UPDATE... Issued at 1251 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 Forecast remains on track this morning, no changes planned. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large longwave upper low pressure system south of Hudson Bay still dominates the pattern while a closed shortwave trough is trying to push to the east and southeast in the eastern Pacific. A weak impulse diving south from the Pacific Northwest will be pushing through the area tomorrow and Saturday. The flow will gradually shift to the north Friday and Saturday. Winds are expected to shift to the north with isolated gusts 20 to 30 mph, especially along the high terrain. High temperatures will continue to be above normal levels with minor cooling noted in the area as readings rise to the 40s. Isolated, light showers are expected across eastern Nevada, primarily in Elko, Eureka, and White Pine counties, though amounts will be light at less than a half inch. Skies are expected to partially clear for the overnight through Saturday morning with colder temperatures expected. A few light, isolated showers are expected across central and east-central Nevada. Lows will be in the single digits and teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s, which will be at or just below normal values for a change. Saturday night through Thursday, the weather is expected to go back to a more quiet pattern during this time frame with light winds. Afternoon highs will once again warm to above normal conditions by early next week with readings in the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence diminishes to moderate regarding the system transiting the region Friday and Saturday. Snow shower activity is expected to remain light with respect to accumulations and no changes were made to the NBM regarding precipitation or snowfall forecasts for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions continuing through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will switch to the north late Friday morning through the afternoon at all sites. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...99