147 FXUS66 KSEW 060232 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 733 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .UPDATE...Current satellite shows stratus still clinging to the coastline while the remainder of western Washington remains generally clear with a few high clouds. There does appear to be a more solid bank of mid-to-upper level clouds further upstream off the southern tip of Vancouver Island and would expect those to roll in overnight. Inherited forecast covers the situation well. No need for an evening update. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain centered offshore through early this weekend. As it slides inland Saturday and Sunday, an upper level ridge will build over the entire region over a surface thermal trough up the coastline. This will likely lead to warm temperatures on Sunday with highs approaching near record levels in the upper 80s to low 90s. The ridge will move out of the region Monday, and temperatures will gradually cool off through next week with the outlook remaining dry. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Western Washington sits synoptically in between a trough feature to the east over the Rockies (positively tilted), and a large scale high that continues to remain centered over the Pacific. Except for maybe some wispy cirrus high above, inland areas remains clear this afternoon with temperatures already up into the 70s in urban and valley areas. There remains some stratus off the coast with a counter-clockwise spinning meso-low spinning offshore and a few clouds seeping through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Clouds will begin to fill in inland areas tonight into Friday (with the continuation of onshore/northwest flow). Friday will be similar to Thursday, dry and few degrees warmer with high temperatures approaching 80 in the south Puget Sound/Interior and adjacent valley areas. Morning temperatures Friday and Saturday morning remain cool with lows around 50. Saturday/Sunday: The high pressure centered offshore will finally begin to move inland (models agree on having it move across northern Oregon Saturday night/Sunday). An upper level trough will also dig over southern Canada Sunday with a ridge building over northern Washington/British Columbia. MSLP also clearly shows a thermal trough moving up the coast below the high pressure/ridge. Saturday will see highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s for most places away from water/higher elevations. The winds will be light out of the northwest only around 5 mph for most places (not too much of a breeze). Low temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s for most places going into Sunday. The HeatRisk on Saturday is generally minor (1/4) for all areas except for a pocket of moderate in the South Interior (2/4). High temperatures will peak Sunday, with temperatures expected to max out in the 80s (and a few areas in southern Puget Sound/South Interior peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s). This will result in more widespread moderate (2/4) HeatRisk across most urban and valley areas inland. Additionally, lows may only drop down to 60 for many areas. Given the early onset of heat for this time of year, a heat advisory headline may be needed for Sunday as many people venture outdoors over the weekend. Lastly, for persons spending time near the waters over the weekend, many of the waters remain very cold with Lake Washington hovering around 65 degrees, Puget Sound at 52 degrees, the Pacific Coast between 50-55 degrees), Lake Sammamish at 68 degrees, and most area rivers ranging from 48-60 degrees. If you plan to spend time in or near the water, wear a life vest and keep a close eye on persons in your party (including children). Cold shock can set in from water temperatures of 50-60 degrees (even for experienced swimmers). .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The aforementioned high will continue to move inland and progress east through the Rockies. The flow will become a bit more zonal which will allow temperatures to decrease throughout the week. Monday will see a continuation of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tuesday will see more of a drop into the low and upper 70s, with Wednesday/Thursday seeing a further drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. A couple of ensembles show a trough moving through next Thursday. The only chance of precipitation with this will be a few showers in the Cascades at this time, which is not expected to produce any significant rainfall at this time. HPR && .AVIATION...VFR conditions across Western Washington terminals with mostly clear skies. Mid-to-high level clouds to increase tonight. Guidance seems to be divided on the low stratus making a comeback in the morning. Models that do show the low stratus hint at a 20-40% chance of MVFR ceilings; however confidence is high that the low stratus will impact coastal terminals, bringing ceilings down to IFR/LIFR. If ceilings do lower for interior terminals, conditions expected to improve to VFR late Friday morning. Northerly surface flow expected to persist with winds at 7- 10 kt, subsiding to 2-5 kt overnight. KSEA...VFR conditions expected for the majority of the TAF period. Mid-to-high level clouds will increase tonight. Models are struggling with the return of the stratus for Friday morning, with a 20-25% chance of MVFR ceilings between 14z-17z. At this time, not feeling confident enough to lower ceilings down to MVFR for this TAF package. NW surface winds 8-10 kt this afternoon/evening will turn more NE overnight, decreasing to 3-5 kt. 33/29 && .MARINE...Surface high pressure offshore will be the dominating feature into next week. It will move over the inland waters on Sunday and east of the area on Monday. A small craft advisory is in effect for the outer coastal waters for choppy seas of 7-10 ft with a period of 8-10 second through at least Friday. May have to extend the advisory into Saturday morning as seas look to remain choppy. In addition, diurnal westerly pushes across the Strait of Juan de Fuca expected today and tomorrow, bringing low-end small craft winds to the Central Strait. May see some occasional gusts reach into the small craft criteria for the eastern portion of the Strait (did not feel confident enough to add the East Strait to the SCA as sustained winds looks to remain below criteria and gusts are on the marginal side for a brief period). 29 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

125 FXUS66 KPQR 060501 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1001 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... && .SYNOPSIS...A stretch of warm, dry weather will continue across the Pacific Northwest through early next week as high pressure remains the dominant feature. Inland temperatures will steadily rise, climbing into the low 80s for today, mid 80s by Friday, upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday, then low to mid 90s by Sunday. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday have a moderate Heat Risk for interior valleys. Coastal areas will stay cooler, but may still warm slightly over the weekend depending on wind direction. Breezy afternoon winds each day may offer modest, localized relief from the heat. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Temperatures will continue to trend upwards through the weekend and into early next week. The eastern edge of an upper level trough is positioned over the PacNW, supporting dry conditions and temps rising into the uppers 70s to around 80 inland and into the 60s along the coast. The ridge centered over the northeastern Pacific will gradually shift eastward as a trough digs into the western edge of the ridge. Friday will see temps rise into the mid 80s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Friday afternoon will also see the development of a weak thermal low west of the Cascade crest which will help aid weak easterly downslope flow into the Willamette Valley. NBM probs for Friday highs reaching 85 or greater throughout the Willamette Valley range from 40-80%, so likely some lower elevations will eclipse that mark. Temps will continue to rise Saturday and Sunday, with the warmest temps of the year so far expected across southwest WA and northwest WA. The center of the ridge will continue eastward with the center almost directly overhead on Sunday. Thermal low pressure is expected to develop west of the Cascades both days as well, helping support at minimum, weak easterly downslope flow. Saturday highs are expected to reach into the upper 80s, possibly low 90s while the coast remains in the upper 60s to low 70s. Probs for highs inland reaching 85 or greater range from 60-90%, with the higher end around the Portland/Vancouver metro. Probs for 90 degrees drop off significantly to around 20-30%, slightly higher around 50-60% around the metro. Sunday will be even warmer with inland temps likely surpassing 90, possibly 95 degrees. Probs to reach 90 degrees are 80 to nearly 100% and 40-70% to reach 95 around the metro, slightly lower around 20% for the rest of the Willamette Valley. Overnight lows will stay in the 50s for most locations, but Saturday and Sunday nights could remain in the low 60s, particularly in urban areas. These warmer overnight temperatures, combined with persistent daytime heat, contribute to a moderate HeatRisk for much of the interior Saturday through Monday. While not extreme, the prolonged heat may still pose health risks to sensitive populations. Coastal areas will remain cooler with highs mostly in the low to mid 70s, though some locations could briefly reach the upper 70s depending on wind direction. Breezy afternoon winds are expected daily, occasionally gusting to 15-20 mph in the valleys. These winds could provide modest, localized relief from the heat but will not significantly affect overall warming. Model agreement begins to degrade into Monday but it is possible Monday turns out to be another warm day. Currently, models depict the ridge shifting farther inland but still influencing the PacNW, supporting highs into the low to mid 90s. Others depict a transition to more zonal flow and an embedded short wave trough coming up from northern CA. Regardless, temps are expected to remain well above seasonal norms through Tuesday. -Batz && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain dry weather for inland terminals through the TAF period. Meanwhile, marine stratus continues to thicken along the coastline late this evening with widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs/VIS already in place. Expect these conditions to persist through the night, slowly lifting back to IFR/MVFR Friday afternoon. There`s a decent chance KAST sees a brief period of VFR in the 20-00z Fri too as the stratus pulls westward, although confidence in the exact timing/length of this significant improvement is low to moderate at this time. It`s also worth noting we`ll have to watch for patchy low cloud cover developing along the west coast of the Cascades near sunrise Friday morning, added a SCT010 to KTTD as they have the best chance 30-40% to be impacted by this cloud cover as it slowly meanders westward while dissipating mid-morning. Otherwise high confidence in prevailing VFR conditions for inland terminals. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR through the TAF period. Still, will need to watch 12-17z for off chance(10-20%) to a drop to 1kft CIGs as patchy low clouds drift westward off the Cascades. Winds generally stay less than 5-10 knots through the period out of the N-NW. -Schuldt && .MARINE...Minimal changes to the forecast. High pressure offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds across the waters through early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most coastal waters except the inner-northern waters (PZZ251) and Columbia River Bar. Within the advisory, expect northerly winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. The strongest gusts are expected across the central and southern outer waters (PZZ272 and PZZ273), where pressure gradients are tighter. Seas remain dominated by northerly wind waves and northwesterly swell through the weekend, with significant wave heights of 5 to 8 ft at 8 to 10 seconds. Expect steep and choppy seas when winds are strongest. -Alviz && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ252-253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

998 FXUS66 KMFR 060513 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1013 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION...05/06Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR under marine stratus will continue for the Oregon coast north of Cape Blanco through Thursday morning, with clearing expected to VFR in the early afternoon. Low clouds and IFR will then return to the coast Thursday evening. Elsewhere, expect continued VFR through the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 910 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025/ ..Updated the Marine section... MARINE....Updated 900 PM Thursday, June 5, 2025...A thermal trough pattern will maintain strong north winds tonight with steep to very steep hazardous wind-driven seas. North winds will be strongest and seas will be steepest south of Cape Blanco, especially south of Gold Beach from 5 to 40 nm offshore. The thermal trough pattern will weaken slightly Friday then be disrupted this weekend. Steep (north of Cape Blanco) to very steep (from Cape Blanco southward) seas continue Friday and Friday night, though with light winds near shore south of Brookings. Steep seas then linger into Saturday morning north of Cape Blanco, and through Saturday afternoon from Cape Blanco southward, ahead of weaker north winds and lower seas late Saturday into Monday morning. The thermal trough returns early next week for another long duration north wind event. Strengthening north winds are likely to produce steep seas by Monday afternoon and may produce gales south of Gold Beach from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening (Day 6 through Day 8 of the forecast). /DW PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025/ DISCUSSION...Northerly flow will persist over the region today as we remain on the back side of high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Weak shortwaves have been passing through in this north to northwesterly flow through the week, resulting in seasonable conditions with periods of increased clouds along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin. The last vestiges of this morning`s marine push linger in the Umpqua Basin, but is quickly eroding this afternoon. Meanwhile, cumulus fields are developing across the East Side and the higher terrain of northern California. We don`t expect much out of these cumulus clouds, but a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Even then, it`s not likely for much, if any, precipitation to reach the ground. Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer today by a few degrees and we`ll see another round breezy afternoon conditions. This warming trend will continue Friday and through the weekend as the upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts eastward and exerts it`s influence over the region. Meanwhile, energy from this morning`s shortwave will undercut the ridge Friday and form a weak cut off low off the coast of California just north of the Bay area on Saturday. This low will nudge closer to the coast on Sunday before passing overhead on Monday as a weak negatively tilted trough. This overall pattern of ridge and weak trough offshore leads to two main concerns for the weekend and into early next week: heat and thunderstorms. First the heat...As previously mentioned, the warming trend that starts today will continue through the weekend, likely peaking on Sunday. Hot temperatures are expected across the whole region (except along the immediate coast) Saturday through Monday when temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s/low 90s) west (east) of the Cascades. Near triple digits are possible on Saturday and Monday for valleys west of the Cascades, with around a 60% of reaching or exceeding 100 degrees in the Rogue Valley on Sunday. This heat could challenge a few records Saturday through Monday with some locations forecast to tie daily high temperatures during that time. One "fly in the ointment" regarding how hot temperatures get is the potential for afternoon cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms (more on that below). Increased cloud cover could result in slightly cooler daytime highs, but could keep overnight temperatures on the warmer side Sunday night into Monday morning. Current HeatRisk values indicate a moderate risk of heat related illnesses during this event, but given this is over a few days and the first of the season, we may need to consider some heat related headlines over the next few forecast cycles. Regardless, those who are sensitive to this level of heat should take precautions to prepare for these temperatures. And, if you decide to cool off in area waterways, please remember that the water is still very cold and currents are running swift. Make sure to wear a life jacket and practice cold water safety! Temperatures are likely to trend cooler from Tuesday onward. The current forecast would bring temperatures more close to what we have been experiencing this week. On to thunderstorm potential...With a weak upper low off the coast of California, we`ll be in a favorable pattern for thunderstorms, especially Sunday into Monday as the trough becomes negatively tilted and passes through the region. It should be noted that we are looking at days 4-7, so there are likely to be changes to timing and location of anticipated thunderstorms as we get closer in time. That said, current guidance shows moist, unstable air moving into the region beginning Saturday, then gradually increasing each day through Monday. While moisture looks sufficient on Saturday, instability and trigger are missing. As a result, cumulus buildups are possible across northern California with a stray shower possible (10%) around the Trinity Alps/Trinity Horn region. As moisture and instability increase on Sunday, expect more widespread chances (15- 25%) of thunderstorms across Siskiyou and Modoc Counties and maybe even as far north as southern Jackson/Klamath/Lake Counties Sunday afternoon/evening. The trough becomes negatively tilted and approaches the coast overnight Sunday into Monday, and this could even bring the potential for some nocturnal showers/thunderstorms. Again, there could changes to timing/location, but at this time, the nocturnal potential looks focused along an arc from central Siskiyou County northwestward into Jackson/Josephine/Curry Counties. Even if nothing happens during the overnight hours Sunday, convective activity could get started across the West Side relatively early compared to normal with moist/unstable air present early in the day Monday and the upper trough acting as the trigger. At this time, we have a 15-30% chance of showers/thunderstorms roughly from the Curry County mountains eastward during the early afternoon hours on Monday. Chances west of the Cascades diminish as the afternoon wanes, with the focus transitioning to the East Side for late Monday afternoon/evening. For now, gusty winds/outflows and small hail (along with lightning, naturally) look to be the main threats with these storms. Thunderstorm potential on Tuesday drops out of the forecast for West Side locations, but lingers across portions of the East Side and northern California. Then by Wednesday, things look to stabilize more as we transition from this thunderstorm pattern to a more zonal/weak troughing pattern. Again, stay tuned over the coming days as this time frame draws closer and we hone in on timing/location details. /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$

444 FXUS66 KEKA 060711 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1211 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures inland this weekend. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the Klamath Mountains and the Yolla Bollas on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Windy afternoons return to NW California by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge aloft over the northeastern Pacific will migrate over into Oregon and Washington through the day. This change in the weather pattern will cause warmer 850mb temperatures, up near 20-23C, through the weekend into next week. Inland valleys are expected to crest above 100F with Big Bar off CA299 having a 30% probability of over 110F on Monday afternoon. Marine air intrusion via the Russian river valley due to southerly winds will probably keep southern Mendocino County from getting above 100F this weekend. However, it will still be hot, and we will continue to message heat and river safety rips in weather story graphics. A semi-closed low aloft (700-500mb) is forecast to bring an increase in mid level humidity and E-SE flow Sat-Sun. GFS has trend with higher CAPE and instability over NE Trinity mountains as early as Sat, however the soundings look super dry in the lower atmosphere. Convective parameters for storms increase on Sunday and more so on Monday per the GFS model. It will still be really dry in the lower atmosphere and with 100F degree heat bubbling up in afternoon a few updrafts could break through the mid level stable layer. Once convection begins the storms may spread NW into Del Norte County Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast confidence remains low for this event due to the minimal forcing for the potential storms. Mid level cyclonic circulation is forecast to slowly meander across the area early to mid next week. Moisture does not look to be in abundant supply. Main impacts appear to be CG strikes and gusty outflow winds given inverted-V profiles indicated by the GFS model. NBM 12hr thunderstorm probabilities are sitting around 10-20% for this weekend into early next week. The potential for more storms on Tue. diminishes, however models continue to struggle with the rate of progression of a semi-closed low and another upstream shortwave trough in the westerly flow. Thus storm chances seem on the fringe of possibilities in far NE Trinity on Tue. Brief ridging on Tue may be followed by a deeper trough Wed and Thu next week. This trough looks quite dry and main impacts appear to be a return of stronger gusty winds. && .AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs... A shallow marine layer has blanketed much of the coastal waters, with stratus along the coastal areas and adjacent river valleys. IFR conditions at KACV, becoming LIFR conditions with low ceilings and visibility in fog after 8Z. Southerly reversal flow continues advecting stratus northward toward KCEC, offshore northeasterly flow remains along the Del Norte coast causing precluding stratus to lap the area. Otherwise, variable conditions between VFR and MVFR are expected to continue at KCEC through late tonight. For inland areas, stratus is expected to continue advecting northward from Santa Rosa and reach UKI around 12Z aiding a period of IFR ceilings. Short-term guidances suggests stratus will be stubborn to scatter out along the coast on Friday. && .MARINE...Gale force gusts continue across the northern outer waters and around Point St. George through late tonight and very steep seas and hazardous conditions persist through Friday morning. Strong northerly winds continue to diminish and push farther offshore around 50-60nm into Saturday, with gentle to moderate winds expected through the weekend. In addition, southerly reversal winds are forecast to develop south of Cape Mendocino on Friday throughout the day with a low pressure evolving into a closed low. Seas will gradually subside on Friday, but steep seas are expected to continue producing hazardous conditions for small crafts across the outer waters through Saturday. Followed by low seas around 2 to 5 feet on Sunday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ470. Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

357 FXUS66 KMTR 060530 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1030 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temps going through the end of the week with a warming trend on tap for the weekend. Temps inland about 3-7 degrees above normal with near normal temps for the coast by the end of the weekend and early next week. A cooling trend appears likely by the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Not much in the way to update tonight as the forecast remains on track. Expect the pattern of overnight and morning clouds with clearing and breezy afternoons to continue into the late week with a slight warming trend this weekend. -Murdock && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Deja vu today with a decently deep marine layer (~2000 feet via Fort Ord profiler) and slightly below seasonal temps. A weak surface low off the coast has promoted southerly flow along the coastline, which has sort of reversed the norm and brought marine stratus into Santa Cruz while clearing out of Monterey. This trend will generally continue into the weekend before the current flow pattern finally degrades and less impactful surface flow in restored. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 125 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A few degrees warmer by the weekend and early next week as a stout, longwave ridge builds over the western US. However, as the ridge builds, a jet embedded in the flow causes the formation of a cut off low that will meander over the waters along the West Coast. While far inland areas heat up, this cutoff low will act to reinforce the marine layer and moderate temperatures through the weekend. So, while inland areas heat up this weekend, coastal areas may actually not see much noticeable change in high temperatures. By the end of the weekend and early next week, inland areas will likely be 3 to 7 degrees above normal, while coastal areas will stay around seasonal normals. By the middle of next week, a cooling trend looks to develop with reasonable confidence among ensemble guidance as a deeper trough pattern digs into the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions are expected overnight. Low confidence but high resolution guidance does continue to indicate a chance for LIFR CIGs to develop overnight. CIGs will initially start out MVFR before lowering and becoming IFR overnight. Not currently anticipating widespread fog/LIFR conditions but patchy reductions in visibility may be possible directly along the coastline. Stratus will return early tomorrow evening with CIGs expected to reach HAF, MRY, and SNS at the end of this TAF period. Confidence is low to moderate for HAF with guidance showing a slight chance of MVFR CIGs continuing through the entire TAF period. For now, leaning towards HAF clearing by late tomorrow morning but stratus looks to return by the early evening hours. Light, variable at times, winds are expected overnight before moderate onshore winds return during the day tomorrow. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has started to fill in through the Golden Gate Bridge and is expected to fill in over the SF Bay by early tomorrow morning. Current thinking is that stratus will not reach SFO until around 10Z but patchy/temporary stratus may impact the airport prior to that. CIGs look to clear by mid to late morning with VFR conditions through the remainder of the day. Guidance indicates stratus may return towards the end of the TAF period with confidence increasing after 09Z. Winds continue to ease overnight with moderate onshore winds to return during the day tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR conditions are expected overnight with CIGs gradually lowering from MVFR to IFR during the early morning hours. CIGs start to rise mid tomorrow morning with clearing expected by mid to late morning. Light, variable winds are expected overnight with moderate onshore flow returning during the day. Stratus is expected to return tomorrow evening with confidence increasing after 03Z. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1029 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Winds have eased over the coastal waters with the exception of the northern outer coastal waters where a SCA remains in effect through early Friday morning for locally fresh to strong gusts. Diurnally breezy winds are expected to develop again over the San Pablo Bay tomorrow afternoon with fresh to strong gusts expected. Otherwise, conditions will remain mostly favorable over the coastal waters through early next week when winds start to build and a long period northwesterly swell arrives. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

292 FXUS66 KOTX 060717 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1217 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warming through the week. - Elevated fire concerns in central Washington Friday. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday through Monday. - Dry and breezy with elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... This week will bring dry weather and a warming trend. Friday will be breezy in central Washington, raising fire weather concerns. Temperatures will warm into the mid to high 90s by Sunday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk Saturday through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... The warming trend throughout the forecast area continues as the ridge strengthens off the Pacific Coast. As it slowly progresses eastward and the ridge axis gets closer to Washington, temperatures will increase steadily each day. By Sunday, the ridge axis will have moved onshore, resulting in the highest temperatures for the area Sunday and Monday. Monday will be the warmest day, with widespread temperatures in the mid to high 90s. NBM probabilities for areas of the deeper basin and deeper valley areas to reach 95 degrees or more are 80 percent and higher. A few areas are expected to reach 100 degrees as well. Ephrata, Wenatchee, Lewiston, and Moses Lake all have a 50 percent chance or higher of reaching 100 degrees on Monday. Another important aspect of this warmup will be low temperatures. Beginning Sunday night, low temperatures will struggle to drop below 60 degrees, and on Monday, are anticipated to be in the low to mid 60s. These warm overnight temperatures will result in poor overnight recovery, leading to widespread moderate Heat Risk values throughout the forecast area and some isolated major Heat Risk values. Moderate Heat Risk will lead to an increased risk for those sensitive to heat related illnesses, and major Heat Risk will lead to anyone without adequate cooling and hydration having an increased chance of heat related illnesses. As the ridge breaks down and gives way to zonal flow, temperatures will begin cooling and Heat Risk levels drop back down to minor by Wednesday. Alongside the increase in temperatures and Heat Risk, fire weather concerns continue through the weekend and into next week. In particular, winds throughout central Washington will be elevated Friday night as the pressure gradient increases across the Cascades. The Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee, and Central Chelan county areas will see wind gusts up to 25 mph, leading to increased fire concerns Friday night. Additionally, as the ridge weakens beginning Monday and zonal flow prevails through the area, winds in the aforementioned areas will again increase each evening, with gusts of up to 35 mph being favored by long-term models Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night. On these days, relative humidity values could drop below 20 percent for much of the area. These low humidity values combined with the gusty winds in the Waterville Plateau, Wenatchee, and Central Chelan county areas will result in an increased fire risk. Should long-term models continue favoring these gusty winds alongside low humidity, fire headlines for early next week may be needed, so stay tuned. Accompanying the overall breezy winds Monday and Tuesday are some signals of dry lightning, particularly in the afternoons and evenings as energy from the ridge breaking down moves through the area. Areas that have the best chances for dry lightning are the Northern Mountains and the southern Idaho Panhandle. Confidence in this dry lightning is low to moderate, so will keep a close eye on this through the weekend. Long-term model guidance is hinting at a break from the dry and heat, with signals of a trough moving through Wednesday of next week. This trough would bring the potential of much needed rain to the mountains and a significant cooldown. The Climate Prediction Center`s most recent 8-14 Day Outlook shows increased chances for lower than normal temperatures and higher than normal precipitation for the forecast area. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain generally light and diurnal through around 15-18Z for KGEG/KSFF/KMWH, which will then begin gusting up to 19kts before relaxing at 22/23Z. KCOE will have breezy winds near 10kts for this time period. For KPUW, winds will get breezy around 21Z. For KEAT, winds will become breezy at 23Z and begin gusting to 20kts at 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. Moderate confidence in breezy afternoon winds for KGEG/KSFF/KMWH/KCOE/KPUW/KEAT tomorrow afternoon and evening. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 83 56 87 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 82 55 84 56 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 80 54 83 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 88 60 91 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 84 50 86 50 91 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 81 54 85 54 89 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 77 58 81 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 57 93 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 89 61 93 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 89 57 91 58 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

606 FXUS66 KPDT 060535 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1035 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion... .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. SCT CIGs AOA 25kft AGL will increase across all sites overnight, then becoming few or skc tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, at most sites through the period...except site DLS where winds will become 12-20kts with gusts around 25kts developing around 18Z. A periodic gust to around 20kts will also be possible at sites RDM/BDN after 20Z. Lawhorn/82 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 127 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025/ .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Another quiet day is upon us as dry northerly flow prevails over the PacNW, leading to mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures. A building high pressure system over the north Pacific will lead to an amplified NW flow pattern that in turn will make for gusty conditions through the Cascade Gaps during the day Friday. Guidance suggests gusts through the Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley could eclipse 30 mph. As this high pressure system moves onshore, attention will shift toward that of our first heat wave of the summer. Not much else to speak of weather-wise until the heat really starts to build in on Sunday. Temps will be noticeably warmer on Saturday with highs in the lowlands reaching well into the 90s, but we will see some overnight relief, as we`re early enough in the warm season that low temps are expected to bottom out into the 50s and low 60s, lessening the severity of this upcoming heat spell. Evans/74 .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunday and Monday continue to be the warmest days of the period according to guidance as strong high pressure persists over the region. NBM has nudged temps upward a degree or two on Monday, with widespread highs above 100 across the lower Basin, potentially spreading into the Yakima and Walla Walla Valleys as well. NBM probabilistic currently suggests about a 50-70% chance for highs to exceed 100 degrees on Monday for the lower Basin, and 40-50% for the other areas mentioned. Elsewhere across the lowlands, highs look to easily reach the mid to upper 90s. A bit too early for headlines on this brief heat wave for now, but it`s looking increasingly likely that Heat Advisories will be needed Sunday and Monday, especially given the fact that it`s only early June. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF depict ridge breakdown occurring during the latter half of Monday, with a pair of weak shortwaves circulating through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This pattern is prime for dry thunderstorms across our eastern mountains, so did make sure to include mention of it in the forecast for at least Monday and Tuesday afternoon (PoPs 15-20%), which the NBM does seem to pick up on in some isolated spots this far out, further increasing confidence. Fuels at the higher elevations are not quite at critical levels, but isolated storms spilling out into the nearby foothills could potentially lead to critical conditions, depending on whether or not such zones are declared ready for wildfire season. Will be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Afterwards, Wednesday onward, ensemble clustering broadly suggests a cool, troughing pattern, reversing the heat expected this weekend. The overall synoptic pattern is progressive enough to hinder confidence (only around 40% at this time), but models do suggest cooler temperatures by the end of next week, with lowland highs closer to low 80s and even 70s. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 55 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 59 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 56 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 59 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 55 93 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 58 87 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 86 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 50 83 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 48 85 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 61 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...82

454 FXUS65 KREV 052034 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 134 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through Saturday mainly in the Sierra from Tahoe southward through Mono County, and parts of western NV south of Highway 50. * Temperatures will warm up to the mid 90s with moderate HeatRisk in lower elevations, and above 80 near the Sierra this weekend and early next week. * Thunderstorm chances may increase Sunday and extend into western NV and northeast CA. && .DISCUSSION... Cumulus clouds have developed farther north along the Sierra and into northeast CA so far today and a rain shower managed to form near Peavine Mountain around noon. A few more showers and possibly a stray lightning strike could develop around the Reno vicinity through mid-afternoon with outflow interactions. Although, farther north into northeast CA, stronger mid level capping and limited forcing should keep the risk of t-storm formation low. Farther south along the Sierra in a similar fashion as yesterday, better forcing should again lead to scattered showers with embedded thunder favoring Mono, Alpine, Southern Mineral-Lyon counties, but a few cells could form off outflows near the Tahoe Basin, Carson City and Douglas counties. Primary impacts will be outflow gusts of 35-45 mph, occasional lightning, and pockets of heavy rainfall and small hail with stronger and slow moving storms, or where redevelopment occurs along terrain features. Friday and Saturday look to have similar storm chances, although more activity looks to stay closer to the Sierra. For Sunday, the upper low off the CA coast is showing signs of ejecting northward as a negative-tilted trough. If this trough track extends far enough into eastern CA-western NV, it could produce more forcing for afternoon-evening thunderstorms. Instability should already be in place with warmer temperatures while southeast flow aloft will pull in some added moisture. For now, we will introduce slight chances for storms into portions of northeast CA and western NV, including Reno and Carson City. Storms that develop on Sunday may be more organized and produce stronger outflow gusts (45+ mph), with increased lightning risk outside precip cores from faster moving cells. By early next week, instability with this trough could linger with isolated shower/thunder chances for areas near the OR border, while the remainder of the region looks to be dry. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs climbing to the lower-mid 90s across most lower elevations from Saturday-Tuesday, resulting in widespread moderate HeatRisk. As next week progresses, a more zonal flow aloft returns with weak dry shortwave passages across the northwest US. This should lead to some cooling later in the week, but also accompanied by some increase in afternoon winds. MJD && .AVIATION... For KMMH, the risk for showers and thunderstorms continues each afternoon through Saturday (about 20-30% chance), mainly between 21Z-02Z. Brief terrain obscurations and lower CIGS/VIS in rain, a few lightning strikes and outflow gusts to 30 kt are the main impacts from these storms. Isolated showers/thunder could also affect KTVL although probability is lower, near 15% mainly between 23-03Z. For the other main terminals, thunderstorm potential is 10% or less each afternoon through Saturday, although a couple of brief stray showers could pop up within sight of these terminals. KTRK may see brief IFR/LIFR conditions with patchy early AM fog mainly between 11-14Z for the next couple of mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

089 FXUS66 KSTO 052033 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 133 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry weather continues today, with a warm-up expected over the weekend, with likely triple digit temperatures and Major HeatRisk in parts of the northern Sacramento Valley. Periodically breezy winds continuing into next week. Daily afternoon/evening mountain thunderstorm chances (10-15%) will continue today and through the weekend over the High Sierra. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Today-Tuesday: -Slightly cooler temperatures today, before high temperatures follow a warming trend Friday and into early next week with Moderate HeatRisk and some areas of Major HeatRisk --Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 95F: ---Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 75-100% ---Delta, S. Sacramento Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 40-80% --Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 100F: ---Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 40-70%, Saturday-Monday -Chances for isolated afternoon/early evening mountain showers and thunderstorms: --Today-Saturday: 15-25%, South of US 50 along the Sierra Crest. --Sunday-Monday: 10-20%, Along the Sierra Crest .CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... -Probability for temperatures over 100F have increased slightly in the northern Sacramento Valley && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds generally below 12 kts, except in the vicinity of the Delta where surface winds could get up to 25 kts between 22Z Thursday and 06Z Friday. Additionally, there is a 15-25% chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Sierra south of US 50 until and 03Z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

553 FXUS65 KMSO 060810 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 210 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming and drying trend through early next week. High pressure will strengthen and build into early next week, bringing a significant warm up and generally dry conditions. Monday looks like the hottest day this week with many valleys reaching into the low 90s and nearing 100 for the lower valleys of north central Idaho. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across Lemhi County and southwest Montana by Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Ensemble forecast models are trying to show a pattern change mid to late next week. With a trough digging over the west coast, forcing the subtropical high (four-corners high) west into the Pacific. The question becomes what is the moisture source as this pattern would favor wide-scale subsidence over the eastern Pacific. More to come as this forecast evolves. && .AVIATION...A weak wave will allow for breezy west to northwest winds late afternoon into the evening today. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in northwest MT as well, due to the low probability no showers are currently mentioned in KGPI`s Terminal Area Forecast. High pressure will build on Saturday producing VFR conditions. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

916 FXUS65 KBOI 060248 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 848 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .DISCUSSION...Weak upper trough over the interior northwestern US developed showers in central and eastern Idaho this afternoon. Skies stayed sunny in western Idaho and eastern Oregon. The trough will exit east Friday allowing a broad Pacific upper ridge to bring warmer air to our CWA through the weekend. Monday and Tuesday now look like the hottest days with high temps in the 90s in the valleys and 80s in the mountains, i.e., slightly later than previously forecast. Gradual cooling beginning late Tuesday. Also, a slight (10-20 percent) chance of thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon. No updates. && .AVIATION...VFR with diurnal winds overnight. Some cumulus developing Friday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through the northwest. Less than a 10% chance of showers, mainly over the mountains of central Idaho. Surface winds: Mostly variable less than 10 kt becoming W-NW 5-10 kt Friday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW-N around 10-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Winds less than 10 kt, become NW 8-12 kt after 18Z Friday. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Building heat will result in high density altitude, especially Sunday into Monday. Generally light west to northwest winds surface and aloft. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Weak troughing aloft continues to support a 20% chance of precipitation in the Central Idaho mountains, though mostly outside of our area. In eastern Valley and Boise counties the chance of precipitation is 10%, as well as a 10% chance of thunder. This is a slight reduction from this morning as the trough has progressed east slightly faster than expected. Gusty outflows up to 25 mph are possible near showers. High pressure will build in behind the trough, continuing a warming and drying trend through the short term. Temperatures warm by about 5 degrees every day, up to 10-15 degrees above normal by Saturday afternoon. The peak of the warming comes in the long term. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...A strong upper-level ridge will build in across the northwest region this weekend and hold in place until Monday. The heat will peak Sunday and Monday with lower elevations reaching the upper 90s. There remains a 5-10% chance of peak afternoon/early evening temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 deg for most valley areas on those two days. There is better guidance on the arrival of an upper-level trough expected to break down the ridge Monday to Wednesday. For now, forecast guidance has a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across higher terrain Monday to Wednesday. If this system holds together as current guidance shows, would expect probabilities to increase, even at lower elevations. Thursday is mostly dry with lingering high elevation showers as a broad trough remains positioned along the West Coast, with some degree of uncertainty over the timing and arrival. After topping out around 15 degrees above normal Sunday/Monday, temperatures pull back to around 10 degrees above normal Wednesday/Thursday. Afternoon relative humidity levels are expected to remain on the lower end (10-20%) throughout the extended forecast period from Sunday to Thursday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....MC SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JY

315 FXUS65 KLKN 051941 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * There is a 15-25% probability of thunderstorms in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties today and Friday * Warming trend Friday through Monday * Near record heat in Winnemucca Sunday afternoon * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 5 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move southward into Central Nevada this afternoon. An upper-level area of low pressure will develop in the base of this trough near the Central California coast tonight. The cyclone aloft will retrograde westward Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build northward across Southern Nevada Friday night. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in Northeastern Nye and Southeastern White Pine Counties each afternoon and evening today and Friday. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Friday afternoon will be two to four degrees warmer than this afternoon. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 85 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Friday, June 6th, 2025: Winnemucca - 96% Battle Mountain - 80% Tonopah - 75% Elko - 60% Carlin - 60% West Wendover - 45% McDermitt - 45% Eureka - 30% Dry conditions with warming temperatures continue over the weekend and into next week. PW values will still be elevated in these dry conditions with mid-level moisture ranging from 0.3-0.5 inches, however, a dry northwesterly flow will hinder any thunderstorm development in northern Nevada. For central Nevada, the dry air will also aid in hindering thunderstorm development, but models show a 10-15% chance for the southern portions of N. Nye and White Pine Counties. Little to no precipitation is expected, so any thunderstorms developing will result in dry thunderstorms. Monday, the northwesterly flow is expected to weaken as upper ridging strengthens. Dry conditions are expected to be the dominant weather under the high pressure, yet there is still up to a 15% chance for thunderstorm development as PW values remain around 0.4-0.6 inches across eastern and northern Nevada. Any convection developing is expected to be dry. Tuesday and Wednesday, models are showing better agreement that the upper ridge over the western U.S. will weaken, turning into more of a zonal flow pattern. This zonal flow will help bring in cooler temperatures, dropping them back to near normal in the upper 70s to 80s by the end of the week. Thunderstorm development will be slightly more favorable, but stay across northern Nevada along the state border each day. Winds expected to elevate each afternoon from the west at 10-15 mph. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Largest source of uncertainty is areal coverage and development of thunderstorms both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. The greatest source of atmospheric instability and moisture could remain south of the forecast area, thereby limiting thunderstorm formation. No deviations from the NBM output. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period. A weak disturbance moves across the region with increasing cloud cover over the terminals (FL100 to FL250). 10-20% chance for thunderstorms developing this afternoon in central Nevada. VCTS will not be in the TAFs for KTPH and KELY as thunderstorms are not expected to develop near the terminals but be further south. Winds from the north/northwest at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts at KTPH, however variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are possible from nearby thunderstorms. Light winds below 10 kts at all other terminals with northerly winds increasing up to 10-15 kts, gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening today and Friday in portions of Central Nevada. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be erratic wind gusts near 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A warming trend is anticipated Friday through Monday. By Monday afternoon, high temperatures will be twelve to fourteen degrees above normal for this time of year. Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada early next week. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...87/97 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...87