386 FXUS66 KSEW 021646 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 846 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will bring rain to the area today with locally windy conditions. A high pressure ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, allowing for unseasonably warm and dry conditions with rounds of morning fog and low stratus throughout the week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The latest forecast remains on track this morning with no updates. A wet day is ahead as a warm front moves inland, with rain spreading inland over the morning. Snow levels remain high around 4000 feet and will rise to 6000-7000 feet this afternoon. Expect gusty south winds to 20-30 mph across the coast and north interior this morning. Rain, heavy at times in the Olympics, will keep the Skokomish River running high and a Flood Watch for Mason County remains in effect. The warm front will slowly lift north into B.C. tonight with rain tapering off. Expect dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure over the region. The air mass will be mild with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. High astronomical tides are expected but the threat of minor coastal flooding is low due to higher pressure. 33 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week for more dry and mild weather. Lows will be a little cooler and in the 30s across the south sound both Thursday and Friday mornings. The pattern changes over the weekend as the ridge shifts inland and a trough moves in from the west. We`re back to a rainy weather regime with snow levels lowering again (down to 4000 feet on Sunday). Ensembles favor a wet and cooler trend moving further into next week. 33 && .AVIATION... Near-zonal flow aloft throughout the TAF period. Mostly MVFR and VFR cigs as of this morning, but there are some locations under IFR cigs where the heaviest showers have been so far. Winds are generally southerly, with gusts to 20 kts likely along coastal terminals, but could extend into areas from PAE north. Fog potential is still there for the usual locations like OLM and PWT tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, expect low stratus. Over the next few days as the ridge builds in, getting more widespread morning fog may be likely. KSEA...VFR presently with light rain continuing. Oscillations to MVFR are possible as heavier showers move overhead throughout the rest of the morning and early afternoon. Winds are southerly, with the potential, although low, for some gusts up to 20 kts by this afternoon. Vis and cig reductions are likely due to low stratus tomorrow morning, with a more noticeable drop after 12Z. 21 && .MARINE... SCAs remain in place for the coast and East Strait with Admiralty Inlet and the Northern Inland waters being added in this morning`s package as well for winds as the front progresses through the region this morning. Starting Tuesday, high pressure will amplify across the Pacific Northwest including area waters. Over the next several days, the chances for marine fog and associated visibility reductions will go up as the ridge builds into the area. This will lead to a period of mostly benign conditions as incoming systems get deflected away and offshore flow will prevail across the area. Breezy winds may persist across the offshore waters Tuesday and Wednesday but likely just outside of the outer coastal waters. McMillian/21 && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Skokomish River in Mason County. The river crested just below flood stage this morning but will rise again today due to incoming rain - cresting near minor flood stage tonight. River flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

451 FXUS66 KPQR 021815 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1015 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 Updated aviation discussion and hazards. .SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry and mild conditions are expected across the region today, with periods of light rain confined to southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon. Confidence remains high for a prolonged stretch of dry weather and above-normal temperatures from Tuesday through at least Friday as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. Uncertainty increases toward next weekend regarding the eventual breakdown of the ridge, though most guidance suggests precipitation may return by late Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday... A weak warm frontal boundary begins to lift northward across southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon this morning, bringing a period of light rain mainly north of a Lincoln City to Portland line. Locations south of this corridor are likely to remain dry, with probabilities of staying precipitation-free ranging from 80 to 95%. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail under mild temperatures, with afternoon highs generally reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s. Beginning Tuesday, deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in strong agreement that upper-level ridging becomes firmly established over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will support an extended period of dry weather, above-normal temperatures, and generally light winds through at least Friday. One notable exception will be in the western Columbia River Gorge and far eastern portions of the Portland and Vancouver metro area, where increasing easterly pressure gradients will lead to gusty winds, particularly Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble guidance suggests surface pressure gradients between Troutdale and The Dalles will be around -5 to -7 mb during this time, possibly peaking up to -8 mb. Under stable low-level conditions, this setup would favor strong easterly winds through the Gorge, with potential wind gusts reaching up to 70 mph near Crown Point, 50 to 55 mph near Corbett, and 35 to 40 mph around Troutdale. In a possibly stronger but less likely scenario (peak of -8 mb), wind gusts could be an additional 10 mph stronger than the aforementioned potential wind gusts. Overall, these values (-7 and -8 mb) assume the stronger end of the projected gradient range; weaker gradients would result in correspondingly lower wind speeds. While some localized tree damage and isolated power outages are possible, impacts are not expected to be widespread. Away from the Gorge, lighter winds and persistent ridging will promote stagnant conditions, particularly across the central and southern Willamette Valley. Calm winds and low mixing heights persisting for several consecutive days may lead to gradual air quality degradation. Forecast confidence is also lower regarding sky cover and temperatures in these valley locations, as inversion-driven low stratus and fog should be slow to clear, resulting in cooler daytime temperatures compared to surrounding higher terrain, the Coast Range, and the Cascades. That said, guidance suggests improved clearing and greater sunshine potential by late week, even within the central and southern valley. Forecast uncertainty increases heading into Saturday and Sunday. Some model solutions maintain dry conditions under lingering ridging, while others introduce precipitation as the ridge begins to weaken. Current probabilities suggest a 20 to 40% chance of rain returning Saturday afternoon, and a 50 to 80% by late Saturday night. Regardless of the timing, rain will likely continue through Sunday and into the start of next week. ~12 && .AVIATION...A frontal system is moving through far NW OR and SW WA Monday, producing showers near and north of KAST along the coast and north of the Columbia River for inland areas. Showers should end by 03-06z Tue. Mainly VFR conditions being observed across the region with BKN/OVC mid to high level clouds north of a line from KONP to KCVO. The exception is the far N OR/SW WA coast where IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue through around 06-10z Tue associated with the frontal passage. Expecting the mid/high level clouds inland to become more scattered between 00-06z Tue from south to north. This clearing will allow for fog/low stratus formation across portions of the Willamette Valley. Areas south of KCVO, including KEUG, could see fog formation as early as 06-09z Tue as they will remain clear through most of the TAF period. For locations north of KCVO, including KSLE, KUAO, and KHIO, there`s a 40-60% chance of fog formation sometime between 06-12z Tue. There`s more uncertainty for Portland area terminals depending on wind direction. Some guidance suggests winds will remain from the east through the entire TAF period, which would inhibit fog formation, while other guidance suggests winds will briefly turn north to northwesterly, which could allow for better chances of fog formation. Any fog formation should improve to VFR conditions by 18-21z Tue. Expect light winds mainly less than 5 kts through the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southeast winds around 10 kts calm to below 5 kts after 23z Mon. There`s a 20-30% chance of fog formation between 11-16z Tue. Uncertainty is due to uncertainty on wind direction. Some guidance suggests winds will remain from the east through the entire TAF period, which would inhibit fog formation, while other guidance suggests winds will briefly turn north to northwesterly, which could allow for better chances of fog formation. If fog does form, expect improvement to VFR conditions by 18-20z Tue. -03 && .MARINE...A weak front moves northeasterly through the waters between Cape Shoalwater and Cape Falcon this morning, bringing increased south winds with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Winds will decrease below 20 kts again late today and remain 5 to 10 kt through the rest of the week. Expect wave heights of 10 to 13 feet at 11 to 13 seconds through this evening. Due to a combination of winds and seas, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 1 AM PST on Tuesday. High pressure builds over the waters Tuesday with southerly winds less than 10-15 kts and seas less than 10 ft. By Wednesday, an increasing westerly swell is forecast to push into the waters, increasing seas to around 10-12 feet around 12-16 seconds through the end of the week. -12/03 && .BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell will result in a high threat for sneaker waves persisting through this afternoon. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming this week. -42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ108-115>118-123>125. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Friday for WAZ204-205. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

768 FXUS66 KMFR 021732 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 932 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... VFR conditions are expected today with generally clear skies and light wind speeds across the area. Tonight we are anticipating some valleys to experience fog and low clouds in addition to coastal areas. However, there wasn`t enough confidence to include KMFR in any categorical changes, but we may need to reconsider this in subsequent TAFs if probabilities increase. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026/ Updated AVIATION Discussion... AVIATION...02/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for most areas. The exception being along the coast and many of the valleys west of the Cascades where IFR/LIFR conditions in fog and/or low stratus will persist through the morning hours. Widespread fog is not expected in the Rogue Valley, but a few hours of "sunrise surprise" could impact the Medford terminal for a few hours this morning. Lower flight conditions are expected to clear out by late morning, with VFR then prevailing in to the evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 214 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning shows fog and low clouds along the coast and inland into coastal valleys, the Umpqua Basin and the Illinois Valley. Skies are clear for the remainder of the area with some scattered high level clouds moving through. There could be some early morning fog in the Rogue Valley around sunrise, but this should be shortlived with plenty of sunshine expected today. Once fog and low clouds clear by late morning, sunny skies and above normal afternoon temperatures are expected across the region today. High pressure develops today and will be a persistent feature through the week. This will bring similar daily conditions with areas of overnight/morning fog/low clouds in West Side Valleys that will give way to sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures. Overall, the going forecast is on track and no updates are needed. Please see the previous discussion below for more details. MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Monday, February 2, 2026...Swell dominated seas and sub-advisory winds will persist through much of the week. Seas will remain elevated and steep into tonight, then lower below advisory criteria for a brief time on Tuesday. Steep seas are likely to return around mid-week as another building west swell arrives on Wednesday and combines with a persistent southwest swell for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. High pressure this week will maintain dry conditions. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 148 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026/ DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)... Key Points: * Little to no impacts expected with mostly quiet weather * Light precipitation chances ending today * Monday: Morning fog for westside valleys and some eastside areas * Forecast turns dry with above normal temperatures this week - Warmest days will be Tuesday - Thursday - Record warmth possible for Alturas and Klamath Falls - Brookings may approach 70 degrees on Wednesday Further Details: Weak PVA aloft coupled with moisture advection has brought light precipitation to the area. By far and large, little to no impacts are expected with this progressive pattern. The forecast turns largely dry the upcoming week with above normal temperatures. In fact, high temperature records may be met at Alturas (Feb 4th/5th) and Klamath Falls (Feb 5th). Records are 65 (Feb 4th) and 64 (Feb 5th) for Alturas. Record is 59 for Klamath Falls. Each of these days we are forecasting high temperatures within a degree or two of these records. A Rex Block (high pressure on the poleward side of a closed low) sets up at 500mb over the west coast starting Tuesday. This will keep the pattern stagnant through much of next week. The high of this Rex Block will be centered over the forecast area through middle parts of the week which will help aid our above normal temperatures for this time of year and dry conditions. This pattern does appear to break down Thursday into Friday as a closed low develops over the Pacific and enter the PacNW. This will bring our next chance at precipitation starting Saturday morning. A lot will depend on the strength of the high as this low could get pushed to the north. At this time, we are not seeing any noteworthy impacts, but we will need to keep an eye on snow levels and wind speeds. A lot will depend on the track of the low, but we have several days to analyze these details leading up to next weekend. All that said, not expecting widespread hazardous weather at this time. -Guerrero && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

330 FXUS66 KEKA 020920 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 120 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cold temperatures this morning for the inland valleys with daytime temperatures mild for the season. Dry conditions will prevail with pleasant effects, similar to previous patterns with ridging in place. && .DISCUSSION...The effects of a dry cold air mass will be felt overnight into Monday morning. A maritime polar (mP) air mass will be advecting colder air mostly to the north of our CWA, while the resilient ridging pattern blocks most of the effects, 850mb and surface pressure maps show some of the flow wrapping around the ridge towards our CWA. Low temperatures are expected in the Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake county valleys. Model soundings show cold surface temps with a decoupled inversion/warmer aloft, which is indicative of a stable profile. Deterministic models have temperatures a few degrees warmer than than the National Blend. Decoupled valleys have been observed a few degrees cooler and our forecasts reflect the trend. Some of the cooler areas like Covelo and Hayfork could get as low as 19-20F. Weaverville as low as the mid 20`s and Ruth in the upper 20`s overnight into Monday. Tuesday morning`s low temps will be a few degrees warmer for these locations with a similar set up. High pressure aloft will build over the West Coast overnight into Monday. A Rex Block pattern is likely to form, with a major 500mb height anomaly setting up over the region on Tuesday, resulting in multiple days of dry and stable weather along warmer temperatures. This will allow dry east-northeasterly winds developing across the area. Moderate breezes are forecast to develop over the higher terrain across the interior late tonight through Monday morning. Areas of low clouds and fog are expected to develop across the interior valleys tonight into Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the chilly side with freezing minimums highly probable for valleys in Trinity and perhaps portions of interior Humboldt, interior Mendocino and Lake counties Monday morning. Dry offshore flow (easterly winds), especially at night, will keep the air very dry and reinforce the warming trend by mid week. Highs are forecast to warm up into the lower to mid 70`s in the interior next week. South-facing exposures and higher terrain stand the best chance for highs in the 70`s, while valleys trapped under the nocturnal inversion with night and morning fog may not warm up even into the lower 60s, especially in Trinity and northern interior Humboldt. Even the coastal areas are expected to warm up to mid 60s to low 70`s before the sea breezes develop, especially on Wednesday. Global Ensembles and deterministic model guidances are suggesting a break- through in the westerlies or undercutting of the blocking ridge Thursday night into Friday. The forecast becomes more uncertain on Saturday, as some model guidance suggests dry weather will continue while other guidance suggests precipitation will return to the area. There is currently a 25-50% chance of rain will return as early as late Saturday, and a 40-70% chance rain will return as early as Sunday. Stand by for more details as the situation develops. /ZVS /EYS && .AVIATION...Clouds formed along much of the coastline during the evening and expanded overnight with LIFR conditions in most locations. Visibilities below airport minimums will be possible at times through the morning. Farther inland some overnight fog will also form with a possibility of a few hours of fog in the UKI area around daybreak. This is not included in the TAF at this time with probabilities less than 20 percent at UKI specifically. Clouds will mix out across the region during the morning hours with VFR returning at the TAF sites by late morning. Another round of low clouds will be possible again Monday night, but light offshore flow could reduce the coastal coverage. /RPA && .MARINE...A westerly swell will continue to move through the waters this morning with seas above 10 feet for most locations into Monday afternoon. High pressure will build over the west coast this week with light winds expected over the coastal waters. Seas will subside on Tuesday into Wednesday with conditions likely to remain below small craft. Another large westerly swell will build into the waters Thursday into Friday with heights expected to be around 11-13 feet at 15 seconds. With winds remaining light to moderate, short period seas will remain small and westerly swells should be the dominating wave through the forecast period. /RPA && .BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell train continues today with heights between 10 and 13 feet with periods near 15 seconds. This swell may be too large for sneaker waves, though it could still pose a threat to beachgoers. Breakers up to 16 feet for west and northwest facing beaches are forecast based on average beach slope profiles through Monday. Beachgoers venturing near or in the surf zone tonight or early Monday morning should remain vigilant. Avoid rocks, jetties and steep beaches. Another large swell may bring slight sneaker wave threat Thursday into Friday. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450-455-470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

687 FXUS66 KMTR 021720 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 920 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 206 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2026 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work week - Minor coastal flooding today during high astronomical tide for bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay - Hazardous beach conditions through this evening at Pacific Coast beaches - Slight chance of rain returning for Sunday && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure situated off the West Coast, with predominately clear skies prevailing across the region. While there are a few high clouds out there, they did not limit our radiational cooling overnight and this morning or the patchy fog formation in Sonoma. As a result, most places are starting the day up to 4 degrees cooler this morning. The fog has also dissipated across Sonoma. Therefore, expect another pleasant day across the region, as temperature will once again warm into the mid 60s and lower 70s, which is roughly 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Current forecast is handling these trends well, so no update is planned at this time. Palmer && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 920 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure will continue to build over California through the next 24 hours, with dry and warmer conditions prevailing. Daytime temperatures will run between 5 and 10 degrees warmer than normal today, and trend even warmer for Tuesday. Winds will remain relatively again tonight, so with the predominately clear skies prevailing, expect another good night of radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to be similar to or slightly warmer than this morning. It also means that we could see some patchy fog formation once again, especially in the North Bay. Only other concerns for today will be with the impacts from minor coastal flooding. While the threat will be lower than previous days, high astronomical tide late this morning into early this afternoon will still bring minor flooding to bayshore locations along the San Pablo Bay in the North Bay. Hazardous beach conditions continue at Pacific Coast beaches through this evening, read more in the BEACHES section. Palmer && .LONG TERM... Issued at 920 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through the midweek, with the ridge axis shifting over California. As a result, expect the warming trend to continue through midweek, with Wednesday projected to be our warmest day of the week. Daytime temperatures will be in the 70s to around 80 for the warmest inland spots, while the coast will continue to see temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Things are starting to look more interesting for the latter part of the work week and this weekend. A the ridge axis continues to shift east in response to a digging trough of low pressure. At this point in time, it looks like dry conditions will prevail through through at least Thursday. However, things are becoming more variable for Friday and the weekend, as the ensembles are showing a negatively tilted trough initially setting up off the California Coast on Friday. While it doesn`t really look like a wet system, it doesn`t mean that we couldn`t potential see some light rain Friday or Saturday, as this is the system that may open the door for a better chance of rain on Sunday. While there are still quite a few differences in the ensembles and even the deterministic models, cannot rule out at least a slight chance of rain, especially for Sunday. Regardless of rain chances, expect cooler conditions to prevail with the return of onshore winds, and some cloud cover. Palmer && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 920 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all taf sites today and through most of the night, with relatively light and variable winds, with high confidence. However, confidence is more moderate, as there is the potential for some fog formation again tonight, especially for STS, which would result in sub-VFR conditions. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions with light southerly flow will continue to prevail. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail today, with offshore flow returning tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar as SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with drainage winds at both terminals. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Diurnal winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 815 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 Hazardous conditions will continue today for the inner waters and outer waters due to rough seas and fresh to strong northerly breezes. Conditions improve tomorrow as moderate seas and a gentle northeasterly breeze prevails through Thursday. By Friday, seas build to become rough, and northwesterly breezes increase to become moderate once again. && .BEACHES... Issued at 257 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 Hazardous beach conditions will continue through this evening at Pacific Coast beaches. Long period westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember: stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Palmer LONG TERM....Palmer AVIATION...Palmer MARINE...Palmer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

225 FXUS66 KOTX 021821 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1021 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of light precipitation today, with temperatures trending warmer. - Dry and mild Tuesday through Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... A milder pattern with periods of light precipitation is expected through Monday. Snow will be limited to the mountains and accumulations will be very light with little to no impacts expected for mountain passes. The forecast then trends drier again on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain mild and above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: A weak shortwave system moves by the area. This morning low level moisture under a low level inversion will hold stratus and fog in place. The depth of the fog has been vacillating, with it locally dense at times before it dissipates some. As we continue through this morning I expect to fog will be more persistent, with the highest confidence over the deeper Columbia Basin into the West Plains. The incoming wave will bring mountain rain/snow mix and lowland rain in from the west later this morning, with the threat expanding throughout the region this afternoon before waning through evening. The wave is relatively weak and precipitation amounts away from the Cascades looks light. A couple inches of snow are possible near Stevens Pass, maybe one inch near Sherman and lighter amounts elsewhere. Some more moderate rain amounts are possible near the Cascades crest otherwise, while lowlands generally see a trace to about 0.05 inches. Heading into tonight, stratus will continue, with more fog expanding out again, Tuesday to Saturday: ensembles remain in good agreement with a ridge building over this period. This will largely mean dry weather, but we will have to contend with low clouds and maybe some patchy fog. After Tuesday the mountains and southeast CWA will have the best chance of seeing some sun during the day. but the remainder of the CWA will be struggling each day. There is the potential in the afternoon and evening for its erosion and it may eroded to a bigger extend later in the week. Saturday night to Sunday: the frontal wave moves in, This will expand the chance for rain and high mountains snow into the region through Sunday, with some cooler air lowering snow levels toward Sunday night into next Monday and potentially mixing some down the lowlands at night. Temperatures will largely be in the upper 30s and 40s today and much of the area Tuesday, with some 50s coming into the southeast CWA. Thereafter confidence wanes some. If stratus holds on temperatures would be colder than currently forecast. Yesterday (Sunday) the 25th percentile temperature verified in many spots. That is the colder end of solutions. However heading into the week even the 25th percentile values warm, but theN NBM may not be handling the stratus well. Either way the forecast has more 40s and lower 50s. Lows in the upper 20s and 30s will be common, with some low 50s near the L-C Valley. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Weak system increasing mid level clouds and bringing light rain to the region. Warmer temperatures are improving the fog and stratus over the EAT. MVFR condtions are expected by early afternoon. VFR condtions expected for the GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS/MWH. Models do have a low probability of MVFR ceilings through late morning. Ceilings and visibility are expected to degrade again overnight into Tuesday morning. The boundary layer is expected to remain saturated and cooler temps are leading to another round of IFR vis/cig for EAT. IFR cig is expected for GEG/SFF/COE/MWH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for IFR cigs for terminals for the rest of Monday. Moderate confidence for IFR condtions for Tuesday morning. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 42 33 47 33 49 32 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 43 36 48 34 50 33 / 50 30 0 0 0 0 Pullman 44 37 53 36 52 35 / 40 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 48 39 56 38 55 36 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 32 43 33 47 32 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 39 34 43 34 46 33 / 50 40 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 42 39 47 37 52 37 / 40 40 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 43 33 50 33 50 32 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 41 35 44 36 47 35 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 40 34 44 36 44 34 / 40 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

162 FXUS66 KPDT 021839 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1039 AM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak warm front today - High pressure returns Tuesday through Friday - Likely pattern change by the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Today, a weak warm frontal passage will cause snow levels to rise above mountain pass levels through the day. Prior to snow levels rising, light snow (trace to 2 inches) is forecast for the Washington Cascades. Outside of the Yakima and Kittitas valleys and northern Blue Mountains, measurable precipitation is not anticipated east of the Cascades. Tuesday through Friday, ensemble clusters all show some flavor of an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern favors air stagnation, lowland stratus and fog, and warm mountain temperatures. Have included a mention of patchy fog in the gridded forecast through Thursday morning since confidence is high (80 percent) that there will be at least periods of fog in the Columbia Basin and surrounding lowlands. Also worth a mention, should widespread fog and stratus materialize, afternoon high temperatures will almost certainly fail to reach the NBM`s optimistically warm values for areas affected by fog/stratus. Moreover, the NBM`s cloud cover forecast is showing mostly SCT-BKN skies in the lowlands, but OVC conditions are more representative of what is typically observed in this pattern. By next weekend, ensemble clusters show good potential for a return to an active winter pattern, though with ensemble membership at roughly a 60:40 split between a wetter troughing pattern and a drier ridging pattern, confidence in forecast details is low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...Mostly VFR conditions expected through 12z Tuesday. After 12z, another round of fog will develop across the forecast area, bringing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions to select terminals (KDLS, KYKM, KALW, KPSC). Confidence in visibility dropping below 1SM is low (5-10%), with a slight increase with visibilities below 3SM to around 15-20%. Generally light wind expected at less than 10 kts. Branham/76 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 35 50 32 50 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 38 49 36 51 / 20 0 0 0 PSC 33 49 34 49 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 33 49 35 50 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 33 50 34 49 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 33 44 33 45 / 30 0 0 0 RDM 29 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 34 54 35 55 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 32 57 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 38 52 37 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...76

543 FXUS65 KREV 022046 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1246 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure overhead will bring dry conditions, above average afternoon highs,light winds, and valley inversions through this week. * The high pressure may weaken by this weekend with precipitation chances returning by the second week of February, but confidence is low. && .DISCUSSION... Not a whole lot going on in the forecast in the next 5-6 days. high pressure remains overhead this week, keeping western NV and the Sierra dry and relatively warm. High temperatures will hover around 60 for lower NV valleys and around 50-55 for Sierra valleys this week. Winds will remain light and variable this week, with air stagnation and valley inversions noticeable in the mornings and afternoons. So when will we see our next storm? Well, ensembles and even long range deterministic models are showing the possibility of our next (and weak looking) system moving in as early as the 6th or 7th of February. That probability is pretty low right now due to the discrepancies in the track of the low pressure off the coast. However, where confidence is higher, is a couple days later around the 9th of February. Models are in better agreement about a fairly moderate cold front moving through some time around Monday the 9th, if not earlier on Sunday the 8th. We`ll keep an eye on this storm as it gets closer, but just know for now that there could be additional snow for the Sierra coming early next week. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds continue through this week. The only exception will be at KTRK where lower CIGS/VIS is possible due to patchy FZFG development between 09-16Z tonight. Haze will linger around KRNO and possibly KTRK and CXP as well in the mornings and early afternoons. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

333 FXUS66 KSTO 012149 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 149 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with patchy fog in the Valley and lower foothills expected through the week, with almost 0% chance of precipitation tonight into Monday. - Temperatures gradually increase to above-normal throughout this this week. - Non-zero chances for precipitation next weekend, though timing and amounts are still highly uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... ...Sunday through Monday... A weak trough will disrupt ridging aloft this afternoon and evening. While there is still a non-zero chance for precipitation in Shasta County this evening, most likely high-res solutions show little to no rain reaching the ground. Ridging builds back in on Monday, starting a gradual warming trend across interior NorCal. North to east winds will be breezy through the northern and central Sacramento Valley and the Sierra mountains/foothills on Monday with gusts 15-25 mph at times. These winds will work against widespread dense fog development in the central Sacramento Valley, but isolated coverage is still possible in the southern Sacramento Valley, with more widespread dense fog likely in the northern San Joaquin Valley tonight and Monday night. ...Tuesday through Saturday... Ridging continues to build across the area through much of next week, bringing gradually warming temperatures, along with continued chances for morning fog. Temperatures will climb to above normal by mid-week, and strong inversions will keep conditions warm and dry in the foothills through midweek. Otherwise, breezy offshore flow is expected at times. Ensemble guidance highlights another shortwave trough approaching the region towards next weekend which is expected to bring cooler temperatures and potential for unsettled weather. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the timing and amounts of any precipitation however, so check back in as we get closer for forecast updates. && .AVIATION... Lingering MVFR conditions this afternoon mainly in the northern San Joaquin Valley from BR/HZ, elsewhere VFR conditions through around 03z Monday. BR/FG to develop in the southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and northern San Joaquin Valley resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions through around 20z Monday. Surface winds below 12 kts across the region through 18Z Monday. North to east winds increase through the northern/central Sacramento Valley after 18Z Monday with gusts 10 to 15 kts at times. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PST Monday for Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$

522 FXUS65 KMSO 020746 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1246 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled start to the week: Light valley rain, localized black ice, mainly northwest Montana. Light snow on Lolo, Lookout and Marias passes - Mid week ridge: Warmth and stagnant pattern - Pattern Shift on the Horizon (Feb 8-10): Increased precipitation chances Occasional showers linger early this morning with snow levels hovering near 4500 feet. A localized slick commute is possible across northwest Montana (particularly in the Glacier Region) where light rain falling on sub-freezing roadways may result in pockets of black ice. Passes such as Lolo, Lookout, and Marias may also see brief snow cover. Otherwise, expect shower activity to taper off by sunrise, leaving behind slightly cooler temperatures today compared to Sunday. A fast-moving disturbance arrives by mid-afternoon with scattered showers primarily in the terrain. Snow levels remain near 4500 feet, with light precipitation continuing into early Tuesday. Overall impacts remain minor, with snowfall accumulations generally limited to less than an inch over the passes. High pressure ridging amplifies significantly from Tuesday through Saturday, bringing a return to unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs could challenge daily records Wednesday through Friday. However, this stagnant ridge pattern is a textbook setup for valley inversions; fog and stratus will likely expand over time, particularly across northwest Montana. Consequently, valley high temperatures in these trapped basins of northwest Montana may struggle to realize their full potential, likely verifying on the cooler side of guidance. Looking ahead, ensemble guidance strongly (about 85% of ensemble clusters) signals a pattern shift beginning around February 8-10th. Evidence supports the ridge breaking down in favor of an upper- level trough digging along the West Coast. This transition would open the door for increased precipitation chances and a downward trend in temperatures. && .AVIATION...Residual mountain obscurations, scattered showers, and gusty ridgetop winds will linger through early morning before tapering off by sunrise as the departing shortwave exits the region. Patchy valley fog may pop up this morning, particularly within the valleys of northwest Montana. Widespread VFR conditions are expected to prevail by mid morning as skies partially clear. However, a secondary weak disturbance embedded in northwest flow arrives by mid-afternoon. Expect ceilings to lower as mid-level clouds thicken, bringing a return of scattered terrain-based showers and renewing mountain obscurations through Tuesday morning. Ridgetop winds will re- intensify with this system, likely inducing mechanical turbulence and occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kts surfacing at valley terminals this afternoon and evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

774 FXUS65 KBOI 021635 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 935 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .DISCUSSION... Areas of patchy fog are observed this morning in parts of the lower Treasure Valley and into south-central Idaho, with localized reductions in visibility to under 1 mile. Expecting this to burn off by late morning as temperatures warm up and vertical mixing increases. Highs will top out in the 50s across most lower elevation areas today. High clouds will stream in from the west through this evening. A weak system will move across northern Idaho later this evening, and bring 5-10% PoP chances to northern Valley County. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR. Patchy freezing fog/low stratus in the Snake Plain and lower basins resulting in localized IFR/LIFR conditions. Fog and stratus will lift through the morning giving way to VFR area-wide today. Surface winds: Variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: WNW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with some mid and high clouds. Surface winds variable less than 5 kt. Leaning NW after Mon/17z then leaning SE after Tue/03z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Skies have mostly cleared, helping fog form in parts of the Lower Snake Plain. Visibilities haven`t dropped to less than 1 mile, however this is likely to change in the coming nights. High pressure aloft is helping build an inversion over the area, keeping air stagnant near the surface and trapping particles and moisture. Fog this morning will dissipate in the day giving way to a light haze, before reforming with a wider extent tonight. This pattern will continue through the short term as a blocking pattern sets in. Temperatures remain mostly mild, but will cool in valleys that see fog form overnight as cold air pools. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...High pressure, inversions, and stagnant air continues through Friday morning. This means continued morning fog and colder temps in valleys. High elevations will be dry and mild. The synoptic pattern is expected to change Friday evening as the cut off low driving the blocking pattern weakens and rejoins the primary flow. While models still disagree on exact timing, all show a zonal to northwestly moisture flow moving overhead by Sunday/Monday. This longwave troughing moving over the Northern Rockies is a good indicator of unsettled conditions, precipitation, and colder temperatures for all elevations in the long term. The transition period Friday to Sunday means inversions may last longer than Friday, we will wait for future model runs to come into alignment on the inversion breakdown. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday IDZ012-014-016-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ Friday ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM

688 FXUS65 KLKN 022041 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1241 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026 * High pressure this week over the Great Basin will threaten several high temperatures records across the area Tuesday through Thursday * Potential for precipitation and gusty winds returns to NV beginning early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure builds back into the region on Tuesday after an unimpactful dry trough passes through the Great Basin Monday evening. Under the ridge and HPC the trend of unseasonably warm temperatures continues. This will threaten several high temperature records at our area climate sites through Thursday. Friday the ridge begins to egress to the east allowing for a change in the dry, warm weather pattern that has plagued the reason for the better part of a month. A longwave trough will begin to fill the vacated space by Saturday night. A series of shortwaves in the axis of the parent trough will make their way into the Great Basin by Sunday evening. As the longwave axis pushes into the western CONUS the pressure gradient will begin to tighten increasing westerly wind speeds Monday and Tuesday. Moisture availability also returns to the region as the first shortwave on Monday will bring with it a slug of moisture. This will increase precipitation chances mainly across northern NV though model confidence with the system is very low. Temperatures do not drop considerably with this first wave so a valley rain/mountain snow scenario appears most likely at this time. Ensemble clusters Days 6-9 depict at least a temporary reprieve from high pressure over the western half of the CONUS signaling a potentially active weather pattern for mid February in the Great Basin. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high in high pressure keeping temperatures warm enough to threaten many climate sites high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. A change in the pattern continues to take shape in the long term though confidence is low for many variables including precip chances, precip type, timing, and accumulations thus far. No major edits needed for the grids at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours, with winds less than 10KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...94