820 FXUS66 KSEW 052053 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 153 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will begin the new week as an upper ridge strengthens over Western Washington. The ridge will weaken and onshore flow will increase for a brief cooling trend midweek before warmer conditions return as an upper ridge rebuilds. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...The warming trend begins Sunday as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Interior temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s, with some locations in the Southwest interior and Cascade valleys reaching around 80F. By Monday, the upper level ridge strengthens in response to strong ridging over the Southwest US, leading to more widespread 80s across interior areas, particularly from Seattle southward. The ECMWF and GFS deterministic models, along with their respective ensembles, show strong agreement on the continuation and strengthening of the upper-level ridge through Tuesday. This will result in the warmest temperatures of the forecast period, with low to mid-80s across much of the Puget Sound region, and some areas pushing into the upper 80s. Moderate HeatRisk could be a concern on Tuesday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Ensemble guidance indicates a flattening of the ridge as a trough crosses northern British Columbia. This will promote increasing onshore flow and a cooling trend. There`s a slight chance of a shower near the coast or North Cascades, but the overall forecast remains dry. Upper ridging returns late week with temperatures rising back above normal. && .AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft continues with onshore flow in the lower levels as an upper level trough moves eastward. VFR conditions at all of the terminals this afternoon with some high clouds moving across the area. This trend will continue throughout the evening with westerly winds increasing at KCLM and areas around Whidbey Island. Elsewhere, winds will turn northerly across the interior and generally be around 8 to 12 knots. VFR looks to continue into Sunday morning, although marine stratus may bring MVFR conditions to KHQM and KOLM throughout the morning. KSEA...VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. Westerly winds this afternoon 4 to 8 knots will turn northerly around 23z-02z and increase in speed to 8 to 12 knots. Wind speeds will decrease by the morning but will remain northerly. Guidance is highlighting 20-25% chance of MVFR stratus nearing the terminal early Sunday morning, but confidence is low. VFR will likely prevail. Mazurkiewicz && .MARINE...Surface high pressure will continue to remain offshore throughout the weekend and into early next week. Diurnal westerly pushes down the Strait will continue over the next several evenings, especially this evening as a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. A weak system may approach the area waters during the middle of the week with an uptick in winds and seas. Combined seas look to hover between 4 to 6 feet throughout the weekend and into the early half of next week. Seas may become steep at times with continuous northerly winds over the waters. Mazurkiewicz && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

188 FXUS66 KPQR 052131 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 231 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Broad high pressure builds through the next week while maintaining a general onshore flow. Increasing temperatures through Tuesday with low elevation inland temperatures around 90 degrees F on Monday and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday before heating back up on Friday. Breezy onshore winds Wednesday due as the pressure gradient increases. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Broad, upper level high pressure builds through early next week. At the same time, an upper level low will park over northern California through Monday/Tuesday. This will result in a very weak Rex Blocking pattern and as a result will cause daytime highs to warm through the start of this week. Expect temperatures to rise about 5 degrees F each day. The coast will have persistent onshore flow and that will moderate temperatures resulting in a warm up by only a few degrees each day if at all. The current forecast has the warmest day over the next 96 hours being on Monday. However, Tuesday could be just as warm or slightly warmer than Monday depending on how the California Low develops and moves eastward. For Monday, winds aloft will become southwesterly and bring in warmer and drier air to the region bringing 850 mb temperatures around 15-18 degrees C. While persistent onshore flow will help to mitigate daytime highs as well as aid in overnight recoveries, overnight lows will still be elevated for inland locations. On Tuesday, the California low looks to start meandering north and east. The timing of this movement will be the deciding factor as to if Monday or Tuesday will be the warmest for the start of the week. On both Monday and Tuesday Moderate HeatRisk is present within the Willamette Valley, Clark County lowlands and the Gorge. Those sensitive to heat should take precautions. /42 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...As we move into the middle of the week, the California low will continue to push eastward into Idaho. This will result in increasing northwesterly flow and bring in cooler, moister air for Wednesday. However, as we look towards Thursday and beyond, models are bringing an upper level ridge into the forecast. WPC 500mb clusters are all generally pointing towards a broad ridge of high pressure developing over the northeast Pacific Ocean/Pacific NW. If this scenario manifests, then Friday and Saturday could easily look like Monday/Tuesday in terms of daytime highs. /42 && .AVIATION...Visible satellite reveals mostly clear skies across the area as of 21z Sat. Expect marine stratus to return to the coast 04-08z Sun, bringing MVFR cigs to KAST and IFR stratus/fog to KONP through 15z-18z Sun morning. Stratus should mostly stay confined to coastal areas tonight, with inland terminals remaining VFR through the period. Winds will increase out of the north- northwest this afternoon to around 10 kt at most sites, with a few gusts in the 15-20 kt range before winds diminish after 06z Sun. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. NW winds increase to around 10 kt with gusts to 15-18kt this afternoon, diminishing to around 5 kt after 06z Sun. Models depict a ~10% chance for MVFR stratus at the terminal 12-16z Sun. /CB && .MARINE...Typical summertime pattern persists through much of the coming week as surface high pressure offshore maintains north to northwest winds across the coastal waters. Could see a few gusts to 20-25 kt across the central nearshore waters through this evening, but do not anticipate enough coverage to warrant an advisory today. Inland heating will drive a strengthening coastal pressure gradient Sunday into early next week, with winds increasing as a result. Have issued Small Craft Advisories across the waters Sunday afternoon through Monday evening as winds gust to 25-30 kt. Expect the strongest gusts south of Cape Falcon, with more marginal advisory conditions with northward extent towards the south Washington coastal waters. Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range, comprised mainly of a mix of short period wind-driven waves and a modest, mid period, westerly swell. /CB && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 10 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253-271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

016 FXUS66 KMFR 052138 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 238 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will bring a chance for thunderstorms across our forecast area between Monday and Wednesday. Temperatures will then trend warmer towards the end of the week. .DISCUSSION... Plenty of cumulus buildup east of the Cascades and along the Cascades this afternoon as there is still some lingering moisture and weak synoptic lift across the region. The weather will remain fairly quiet tonight as some cooler temperatures in the mid 50`s settle into most locations overnight. By Sunday, A cutoff low will settle right along the central California coastline by mid day. Temperatures trend a bit warmer with highs in the mid 90`s here in Medford. Brookings should be on the warmer side as well with 10 to 15 knot north east winds over the southern Coastal range. That will result in highs between the mid 70`s to perhaps mid 80`s over spots in Curry County. We should see more cumulus buildup during the day, although we`re not expecting any thunderstorms at this time. This will change by Monday as a small chunk(~30%) of ECMWF ENS members are predicting some precipitation, which should come in the form of thunderstorms given the pattern and surface temperatures anticipated Monday. The NAMnest and NAM soundings show about 400 j/kg of convective available potential energy(CAPE) with little convective inhibition(CIN). Some of these storms could be elevated and again hedge towards the dry side. Storms are anticipated to be isolated. The upper level low nudges just a bit farther north giving us some pretty good upper level divergence on Tuesday afternoon. The environment shouldn`t change much frankly and the ECMWF ENS members are again picking up on thunderstorms a little farther north on Tuesday in our Oregon zones. Again, it`s looking more isolated on Tuesday. Finally by Wednesday, the upper level low begins to move eastwards and we should see some more thunderstorms around the region. Locations in northern California and east of the Cascades will see thunderstorm activity during the day yet again. Essentially, we should see some cloud to ground lightning somewhere in out forecast area between Monday through Wednesday. After the low finally departs the region, Temperatures will likely warm towards the 100`s on Friday and Saturday. It will be a warm period and there are hints a thermal trough could build over us during next weekend, which usually leads us to some hot, dry and unstable weather. -Smith && .AVIATION...05/18Z TAFs...All areas are VFR currently, except for a small sliver of coastal IFR stratus near Brookings (even there it should break out in the next couple of hours). Expect VFR to prevail elsewhere through late this afternoon with gusty north winds developing along the coast (up to around 30 kt at North Bend). Over the interior, breezes won`t be as strong, but still around 20 kt in some places. A shallower marine layer tonight into Sunday morning along with a slight veering of the winds to northeast will result in a lesser coverage of stratus, but LIFR where it does form (esp, North Bend). -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 5, 2025... Winds will continue to increase into this evening as the thermal trough rebuilds. Winds and seas will be hazardous to smaller crafts south of Cape Blanco this evening. These hazardous conditions will then expand northward with steep seas across the waters by Sunday evening. However, gales are anticipated south of Port Orford by Sunday evening through Monday. Conditions improve slightly by Monday evening. -Smith && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, July 5, 2025...An upper ridge will continue to move in over the area the remainder of this weekend. This will bring dry, stable conditions the rest of today and through Sunday with temperatures getting back above normal levels. A few fair-weather cumulus are out there this afternoon, but no thunderstorms. On Sunday, there can be a few buildups over the SE mountains (Warners) during the afternoon/evening, but there doesn`t appear to be enough instability/moisture to produce deep convection. As such we`ve kept thunder out of the forecast. Otherwise, the forecast will be for continued near to slightly above normal temperatures, seasonal humidities, and the typical diurnal wind patterns, although general east flow late this weekend into early next week leading to drying, especially across the ridgelines, where poor to moderate recoveries are possible. Heat builds further Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and even some readings in the West Side/NorCal valleys exceeding 100F. Low pressure will then develop off the California Coast setting up just west of SF Bay Sunday night into Monday. This is a similar set up to the pattern that brought convection to the area for several days this past (last) week. One difference though is that the deep southerly flow of moisture available during the last event appears to be less with this one and, as such, a limiting factor for convection. That said, latest guidance continues to show at least a slight chance (15 to <25%) of thunderstorms each pm/eve beginning Monday and continuing through Wednesday. NorCal seems to be favored, but also portions of the Cascades and East Side. It should be noted that model PWs with this potential convection are around 0.50-0.75" (esp southern and eastern areas, where values could be below 0.50" at times), so any high-based convection that does develop might not produce any rainfall. We`ll continue to monitor the guidance to hone in on lightning potential and areas that stand the best chance over the coming days. The low will get a kick onshore Wednesday and move through NorCal and into NW Nevada during the afternoon/evening. Still could be activity in NorCal and east of the Cascades then, but do expect drier westerly flow to move in Wednesday night and the thunder risk to end. Expect slight cooling Wed/Thu, but a return of hotter weather again by Friday. There also could be a period of weak offshore E winds Wednesday night through Friday morning. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for PZZ356- 376. && $$

066 FXUS66 KEKA 052041 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 141 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will generally trend warmer through Monday. There is a slight chance for interior thunderstorms Monday and Wednesday along with slightly cooler temperatures. Hot weather with temperatures over 100 degrees is possible by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: -Warmer temperatures Sunday -Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday and Wednesday -Hot temperatures Thursday and Friday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure is generally over the area this afternoon, however there is a upper level low developing off the coast of northern California. This is not expected to the impact the weather until Monday when it gets closer and drops slightly south. Temperatures Sunday are expected warm into the 90s in many inland areas while the marine layer stays fairly shallow. Monday as the low gets closer this will likely bring a stratus surge to the coast and may cool temperatures in the near coastal areas. This may also bring a thunderstorm or two to the Trinity Alps. For now it looks like the best chance for thunderstorms on Monday will be to the north of the area. Tuesday is expected to see additional cooling with highs only expected in the upper 80s to low 90s. The potential for thunderstorms moves north on Tuesday and at this point it looks like it will be out of the area. Wednesday the upper level starts to become an open trough and move through the area. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how quickly this will move out of the area, but it looks like there is a slight chance for thunderstorms in mainly northern Trinity county. Warmer temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday as the low/trough moves out of the area. Highs near or slightly above 100 are expected with Friday expected to be the hottest day of the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS: Sunday there is fairly high confidence in the general forecast with a fairly typical progress of warming temperatures and shrinking marine layer. Did blend the NBM RH Sunday afternoon with the FV3 model bring RH down, especially in interior Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Monday morning is expected to start off with some offshore which may help limit the coastal clouds and allow skies to clear out more quickly. Monday afternoon confidence diminishes as it looks like there will be southerly surge of winds and stratus near the coast. Confidence is also low on the potential for thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Increased the Potential thunder to 15 percent for northern Trinity county to get some thunderstorms in the forecast. The better chances look to be north of the area in Siskiyou county. There is also a small chance some thunderstorms could make it into Del Norte county again and push towards the coast. The lapse rates aloft are good and there is some elevated instability. Tuesday the low pushes back off the coast a bit and the better thunderstorms chances are expected to be farther north in Oregon. Wednesday the closed low is expected to become an open wave and move across the area. This also has the potential to bring some thunderstorms to the area with the best chances in Trinity county. So have added a 15 percent chance of thunderstorms which again is above the current NBM guidance. Confidence is still low on the exact location and timing. Overall this is a very tricky pattern and the location of the thunderstorms depends highly on the exact track of this upper low which is a low predictability type of event. There is a small chance that thunderstorms could develop in most any part of our area over the Monday through Wednesday time period or we may see none and they are all north of the area. Thursday and Friday confidence is much higher that we will see warming temperatures with a 60 to 80 percent chance of the inland areas seeing temperatures exceed 100 degrees and seeing a moderate to locally major heat risk. MKK && .AVIATION...Ceilings are beginning to lift and scatter along the north coast this afternoon. Broken MFR ceilings expected briefly after 00Z for ACV while CEC maintains a longer period of VFR conditions. Otherwise, NW flow will continue through the evening with gusts 10 to 15 knots possible at UKI. Stratus expected to redevelop along the coast with IFR to LIFR ceilings and viz overnight as the marine layer compresses, especially near sunrise. Light offshore flow expected at the coastal terminals; HREF indicate this will have little effect on the marine layer through the morning. Probabilities for ceiling coverage fall below 50% after 18Z Sunday. && .MARINE...Northerlies are expected to strengthen again today, with gusts 20 to 30 knots developing in the outer waters this afternoon into Sunday morning. High confidence in near gale gusts continuing south of Cape Mendocino as Gale conditions develop and become confined to the northern waters during the day Sunday. Gusts approaching 40 knots are possible as the strongest winds develop late Sunday into Monday morning. Steep and hazardous wind waves 9 to 12 feet are forecast in response to these winds, potentially propagating into the northern inner waters briefly. Conditions will quickly diminish on Monday as a closed upper low cycles off the CA coast. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures are forecast to warm more on Sunday. Overnight recoveries are generally expected to remain good except for a few exposed ridges where low RH`s may persist through the night. Sunday night into Monday some offshore flow is expected to help keep the marine clouds and moisture out of the area and there may be some lower recoveries in northern Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Monday afternoon or evening the marine layer is expected to return near the coast with some southerly winds as an upper level low approaches the area. This also brings an isolated threat for thunderstorms. This threat is expected to continue through Wednesday, for details see the forecast confidence section. The upper level low is forecast to finally eject N-NE by mid next week as a massive ridge over the four corners region expands over the area. Much hotter temperatures and drier humidity are highly probable in the interior late next week. There is a 60 to 80 percent chance of inland valley temperatures exceeding 100 degrees by Friday. RH is also expected to be low. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

879 FXUS66 KMTR 052032 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 132 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages into early next week. - Marine layer increases and expands farther inland for end of the weekend and continues into early next week. - Gradual pattern change which will bring a warming trend starting Wednesday.&& .SHORT TERM... Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Near zonal flow will give way to an upper level low that has formed off the Northwest Coast of CA this afternoon. This will slowly slink meander to the south and then look to hold off our coast through Sunday. This will lead to seasonably cool temperatures continuing and lead to a deepening marine layer. For now, mostly clear skies are observed across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast with stratus clinging to the San Francisco/San Mateo coasts. Stratus is expected to fill back in later this evening and into tonight, and should seep into coastal valleys by Sunday morning. The clouds should retreat to the coast by late Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) A closed low should sit off just to our west through the early portion of the work week, which will allow the marine layer to deepen. Look for nighttime and morning clouds through midweek, with perhaps some coastal drizzle Monday night and again Tuesday night. A pattern change will start around Wednesday which is when ensemble and cluster analysis show the ridge over the Desert Southwest strengthening. Temperatures should increase for the later portion of the week, with Thursday and Friday looking to be the warmest at this time. It`s still too early to say how warm we`ll get as this time, especially since models struggle with how strong the ridge will get. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 IFR to MVFR at MRY and HAF this morning with the greatest likelihood to scatter out at MRY. HAF may maintain ceilings through the TAF period. Onshore winds increase again this afternoon with high confidence for IFR to MVFR ceilings returning late tonight across the Monterey Bay terminals as the marine layer deepens. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Bay Area terminals early Sunday morning and persist through about 17Z-18Z Sunday. Onshore winds increase again Sunday afternoon, however and forecast to be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt. Moderate to high confidence for MVFR (potentially lowering to IFR) Sunday morning. Low clouds will scatter out by around 17Z-18Z Sunday with onshore winds once again increasing by Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR. Onshore winds will increase slightly this afternoon before easing after sunset. High confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop around the terminals late this evening and potentially lowering to LIFR early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Moderate seas and a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze will continue through the remainder of the weekend. Winds will diminish late Sunday into Monday with a moderate breeze to continue through late next week. Occasional gale force gusts are possible along the Big Sur coastline Saturday afternoon. Winds increase and significant wave heights build beginning late next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

033 FXUS66 KOTX 052203 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 303 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated (10-15%) afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the northern Mtns and N ID this afternoon and early evening. - Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least Wednesday. - Increased winds and elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... The progressive shortwave that supported light showers across the area this morning continues to move off to our east this afternoon. Meanwhile, another progressive wave is moving through this afternoon and evening and will try to utilize the what`s left of the moisture in concert with instability (100-300 j/kg) to support a few showers and storms (10-15% chance) across the northern Mtns and N ID. Attention then turns to the upper air pattern as ridging will slowly start to build tomorrow and amplify as it moves overhead Monday and Tuesday before breaking down Wednesday. As the area trends warmer and dryer, heat and fire will remain the chief concerns. There is good agreement when looking at ensemble clusters of the ridge dominating Monday and Tuesday and quickly becoming zonal Wednesday. Heat wise, moderate to major heatRisk is possible Monday through Wednesday. Temperature spread is quite low Monday and Tuesday of 3-5 degrees, however there is increased uncertainty on Wednesday where the spread increases to 7-10 degrees across much of the area. The highest heat confidence lies across greater Columbia Basin where spread is the least (1-3 degrees) with Tuesday max temperatures approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Wind gusts Tuesday include a 25-75th percentile range of 25-35 mph across portions of central WA while the area of elevated winds expands east across E WA and N ID on Wednesday. The heat and wind potential in concert with relative humidities falling to the teens Mon-Wed will result in elevated (Mon/Tue), to potentially critical fire conditions (Wed). The GEFS hot, dry, windy (HDWI) indices continue to increase with nearly all members at or above the 90th percentile for Tuesday with some uncertainty still showing up Wednesday though now ranging between the 75th and 95th HDWI percentiles. This period will continue to be monitored closely as we move into next week. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: The showers we saw overnight from moisture wrapping around a broad low pressure system are beginning to dissipate. Cigs are generally around 6-8k ft AGL with few-sct coverage as low as 2.5k ft AGL. Areas near the Canadian border will see a renewed threat for convective showers and small threat for thunderstorms (20%) between 21-03z. Light winds are expected regionwide through the TAF period with infrequent afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through the period with the exception of PUW for which MVFR ceilings may linger for the next hour or two. Main threat for convective showers and isolated t-storms this afternoon will be from Oroville to Bonners Ferry. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 55 85 56 91 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 54 83 55 88 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 81 51 88 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 91 61 96 66 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 46 84 48 89 52 95 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 51 80 49 86 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 57 80 59 87 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 54 89 56 96 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 59 90 64 95 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 57 88 59 94 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

419 FXUS66 KPDT 052039 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 139 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Monday...The short term will be characterized by calm weather. An upper ridge of high pressure will settle over the region bring hot and dry temperatures across the region. Dry and warming conditions will continue through Monday ahead of a dry cold front. Temperatures will be steadily rising with models todays high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90 across the vast majority of the region with upper 60s to low 70s along the Blues and eastern mountains with 80-100% of the ensembles are in agreement. As we move into Sunday and Monday, models show high temperatures to become more widespread with 80-100% of the raw ensembles showing only the ridges of the mountains remaining below 80 degrees. Forecast HeatRisk ranges from Moderate (level 2 of 3) on Monday. .LONG TERM...Models are showing an upper level dry cold front making its way into the PacNW Tuesday. Tuesday is set to be the hottest day of the long term with models showing temperatures cresting 100-105 through the Columbia Basin, Yakima Valley and along the foothills of the Northern Blues of OR & WA. Ensembles show 80-100% agreement that the aforementioned area will see these temperatures. Forecast HeatRisk ranges on Tuesday to Major (level 3 of 4). This level of heat would support Heat Advisories for the Yakima/Kittitas valleys, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the northern Blue Mountains on Tuesday. Overnight lows from Monday into Tuesday still range low to moderate leading to the potential for heat advisories. With the incoming dry cold front, models are showing an increase in stability as it pushes inland. Ensembles are showing 75-80% probabilities of the southern portion of the CWA from Deschutes county and across the eastern mountains into Wallowa County seeing the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday. Models and ensembles surface CAPE values between 200-500 J/kg,lapse rates over 9C/km and LIs of -2. Looking at dry thunderstorm probabilities, ensembles show 10% probabilities in the southern portion of Deschutes, Crook and Grant Counties. 12 hour probabilities of thunder is a bit higher with 15%. Looking at the model derived sounding, the PWATs are a bit high at 0.53 inches of precipitable water within the mix. We cannot rule out the probability that any storm produced will be dry in nature. The remainder of the long term will be continued dry and warm. Also, with the arrival of the cold front, winds through the Cascade Gaps will increase. The Gorge on Tuesday will likely see winds increasing to near 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph with 40-60% of the ensembles in agreement. Kittitas Valley will also see an increase in the winds ahead of the front with sustained winds of 20 with gusts to 30 mph with 60-70% of the ensembles in agreement. Bennese/90 FIRE WEATHER...Though there will be hot and dry conditions through the forecast period, no fire weather concerns are present through Monday. With that said, the incoming potential for thunderstorms Tuesday will be closely monitored for any fire weather products needed. Bennese/90 && .AVIATION...18Z...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with mostly clear skies. Winds will be elevated at DLS with 32015g25kt through 04Z then decreasing to 12kts and under. All other sites will be 10kts or less. Bennese/90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 56 90 58 98 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 59 89 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 56 91 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 57 90 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 57 92 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 57 89 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 45 88 49 96 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 86 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 88 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 57 90 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...90

295 FXUS65 KREV 052031 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 131 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Typical summertime warmth and dry conditions prevail this weekend with light breezes each afternoon through Monday. * A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Wednesday afternoons with increased breezes around midweek. * Hotter conditions are expected late this week with triple digit heat possible in western Nevada valleys by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Hot and dry weather is in store this weekend with light breezes each afternoon. Plan on regional highs in the upper 70s and 80s today for populated areas of the Sierra and western Nevada. A warming trend promotes a return to 80 and 90 degree heat for Sunday, so make sure you practice your heat safety precautions. Mostly clear skies today become partly cloudy on Sunday as cumulus build-ups develop in the daytime. Some isolated showers may mature in the mountains of Alpine and Mono counties, but chances are only 10-15%. Given this, keep your eyes on the skies if recreating in the mountains Sunday! Pacific low pressure, albeit rather weak, will be nearly stationary as it meanders off the CA coast early this week. This low may provide enough instability for showers and isolated storms Monday afternoon in the Sierra and near the Oregon border (15% chance). The weak low will finally dislodge and advance across the region late Tuesday through Thursday. As it does so, winds may become breezy around midweek and yield elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for portions of western Nevada. Shower and thunderstorms chances also increase Wednesday afternoon -- mainly for areas north of the I-80 corridor -- as the low passes overhead. High pressure amplifies towards the end of the week, allowing for widespread warming that brings highs closer to 90F and 100F for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively. -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions prevails this weekend with light breezes in the afternoons. Cumulus build-ups will be more pronounced along the higher terrain Sunday afternoon with low chances of afternoon showers in the Sierra between KTRK and KMMH. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

132 FXUS66 KSTO 052013 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 113 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy conditions continue today, with seasonably cool afternoon high temperatures in the Valley. Warming trend begins tomorrow, with triple digits in the northern Sacramento Valley and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. Weak offshore low pressure on Sunday could introduce an isolated (less than 10% chance) shower/t-storm along the peaks of interior NorCal mountain ranges on Sunday and Monday evening. Low daytime humidity values and breezy southerly winds on Monday will introduce elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. Slight cooldown on Tuesday, then warming trend again with the return of widespread Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday and Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Today - Monday: - Onshore winds will keep temperatures below average today - Mostly dry weather, non-zero chance of afternoon/evening convection over the peaks of the Sierra, southern Cascades, and the Coastal Range. Higher resolution models keep most activity out of our area, so confidence is low on any storm development at this time. - Winds will be locally breezy at times, strongest through the Delta and over the higher elevations - Slow warming Sunday into Monday, with continued dry conditions - Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley on Monday due to low daytime humidity values and breezy southerly winds, with gusts around 15-25 mph. Highest risk area: along and west of I-5 from around Corning to Redding. * Tuesday - Friday: - Increased onshore flow with below normal temperatures. Temperatures trend up by the end of the week with above normal highs with widespread Moderate HeatRisk Thursday and Friday .Changes from previous forecast... - Elevated fire weather conditions are in the forecast for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. Highest threat area is along and west of I-5, from Corning to Redding. Daytime humidity values: 15-20%, Southerly wind gusts around 15-25 mph. These conditions will lead to easier fire starts, especially in the afternoon/evening with peak daytime heating. - Non-zero (less than 10% chance) of an isolated mountain thunderstorm in the Sierra, southern Cascades, and Coastal Range Sunday and Monday. Confidence very low on any storm development at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Periods of breezy onshore winds with gusts up to 20 knots in the Delta vicinity. Elsewhere, surface winds generally below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

017 FXUS65 KMSO 051942 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 142 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A warming trend starts early next week that will culminate in another extended period of hot, dry weather. - Brief reprieve in hot temperatures on Thursday as a weak cold front increases wind and thunderstorm chances. A trough will gradually exit the Northern Rockies this afternoon but occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms continue. Showers should end quickly by this evening. Northwesterly flow will return Sunday, bringing temperatures back to near-normal levels. Most areas should remain storm-free, though some model guidance suggests a shortwave trough may clip northwest Montana, potentially producing showers, especially around Glacier National Park. Ridging builds back in Monday with hot temperatures by Tuesday as high temperatures return to about 10 degrees above normal. Ensembles agree on a disturbance flattening the ridge later Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures return to seasonable levels by Thursday. Shower/thunderstorm chances and breezy westerly winds also return Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, especially along the Divide and Canadian border. Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend as the ridge bumps back up. Weak disturbances in southwest flow open up the potential for a few thunderstorms in this pattern. && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft becomes increasingly northwesterly through the rest of the evening and overnight tonight. Rain showers and terrain obscurations this afternoon will last through at least 06/01z with the highest chances for lightning and heavier showers generally south of I-90 through about 05/24z impacting terminals such as BTM, HRF, and to a lesser-extent SMN. Heavier shower or thundershower may produce gusts at the surface up to 30 knots. Increased drying and clearing is expected into Sunday with a slight chance for afternoon showers in northwestern Montana. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

292 FXUS65 KBOI 052050 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...The region remains dry under westerly flow on Sunday. Temperatures will warm to near normal placing lower elevations at 85-90 degrees and mtn valleys at 75-80 degrees. Monday will see further warming as a closed low off the CA amplifies a downstream ridge. For now it looks like dry and stable conditions will inhibit shower/storm development on Monday, with cumulus buildups along the NV border region the extent of any threat. High temperatures on Monday will run 5-10 degrees of warmer than Sunday, pushing valleys into the mid-90s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...The heat will peak on Tuesday beneath the upper ridge axis. Lower elevations including the Treasure Valley, climb into the low-100s with highs approaching 90 in mtn valleys. Increasing mid-level moisture over central Oregon will be something to watch for thunderstorm potential. For now have increased shower/storm threat to minimal 10% along an arc tracing from Harney County through Baker County and into the w-central Idaho mtns. The closed low off the central CA coast slips inland on Wednesday, tracking into the northern Great Basin. Similar to Monday, feel ensemble blend is under representing potential for afternoon showers/storms across higher terrain along the OR/NV and ID/NV border. Did slightly bump up SE Oregon and higher terrain south of the Snake River and would expect these probabilities to rise as we get closer to Tue/Wed. The remainder of next week looks dry with the storm track remaining to our north and east and an amplifying upper ridge returning by next weekend. Temperatures will hold at or above normal through Saturday. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR with some patchy low stratus in mountain valleys tomorrow morning. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kt becoming variable overnight. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....DG AVIATION.....SA

625 FXUS65 KLKN 052109 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 209 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 205 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns. * High temperatures will rise into the low 90s to low 100s by Tuesday as lows reach the lower 50s to low 60s. * Near critical fire weather conditions possible for Tuesday afternoon for Central NV as SW winds pick up and Humidity drops. * Upper trough passing through the Pacific NW to bring in slightly cooler temperatures for northern NV Thursday. Heat returns Friday and Saturday as highs reach the upper 90s to 100s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 205 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The main weather features to watch for the next week will be an upper trough situated off the west coast and a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the desert SW. Unlike last week this upper low is not forecast to move any farther south than the Bay Area of Northern California. The ridge however will build SW into southern California effectively blocking any moisture flow from the south. That will leave Nevada under a dry southwesterly flow with surface winds being dictated by how close the trough and ridge get. Needless to sat a warming trend will commence this afternoon with the first round warn-up peaking Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. High temperatures look to rise into the low 90s to low 100s by Tuesday as night time low range in the low 50s to low 60s, which with the exception of West Wendover which will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, will help midi-gate potential heat headlines for the first half of the week. As for the upper low models show that it will make little headway through Wednesday of next week, what it will do is increase the SW winds across central Nevada for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. As such will need to watch for Fire weather concerns as afternoon winds of 10 to 20mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be possible, and with afternoon RH values below 10% near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible, especially for Tuesday afternoon. Good news is this upper trough will finally move through northern Nevada Thursday, bringing slightly cooler temps, but no moisture to speak of. After Thursday models agree on re-building the ridge over the lower Colorado river valley. This setup will bring slightly higher heights over Nevada, meaning even warmer temperatures will be possible over the area with high reaching the upper 90s to 100s Friday and Saturday of next week, and a return to possible heat headlines for next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over the the Great Basin for the weekend trough the first half of next week leading to warmer temperatures and dry conditions. There is high confidence in the upper level forecast pattern that will keep an upper trough off the California coast through Wednesday. There is moderate confidence that the interaction of this trough and the upper ridge will lead to near critical to critical fire weather conditions for parts of central Nevada for the first half of the work week. Confidence is moderate to high that the upper level ridge will build back in over the great basin region, after the upper trough moves through Nevada Thursday. Leading to another warm-up for next weekend. The main deviation from the previous forecast was to increase winds and wind gusts for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to match model trends. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Some breezy winds will be present, gusting up to 20KT at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry through the forecast as high pressure builds over the area. Fire conditions are currently expected to remain below critical thresholds, however winds look borderline in Central Nevada and may end up requiring fire weather headlines. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94