633 FXUS66 KSEW 101615 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 915 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions will continue today. Wet and cooler conditions expected this weekend. A weak ridge will build over the region on Monday. A stronger frontal system midweek will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak upper level ridge will remain in place through today. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day as moisture from an upper level low moving through California moves northward into Western Washington. Dry and warm conditions today; however, light isolated showers may lift northwards across the region today. Temperatures today will peak in the low 60s along the coast and upper 60s/low 70s in the interior. An upper level low will move southwards from the Gulf of Alaska today and impact California this weekend. As this system slowly pushes across the Golden State, rain will lift north and bring unsettled conditions back to Western Washington. Precipitation amounts with this system are expected to be light, with most places seeing 0.10-0.25 inches across the lowlands and up to 0.50 inches in the mountains. In addition, this system will bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures. High temperatures will peak in the 50s this weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak transient upper level ridge will be in place on Monday. The ridge will quickly weaken as an upper level trough approaches Western Washington on Tuesday. The stronger system will move over the region on Wednesday, which will be accompanied by wet and cooler conditions. Lower snow levels will bring light to moderate snowfall to the mountains and passes. Guidance hints at below normal temperatures late next week, which may result in frost. 29 && .AVIATION... Southerly flow aloft continues through today with an upper low located offshore of California. High clouds will increase through this afternoon with south flow aloft, but VFR conditions will prevail into this evening. Cigs will slowly lower tonight into Saturday morning into MVFR as showers begin to arrive after 06 Saturday. Winds will remain light, mainly under 5 kts, for most sites through today, before increasing from the south early Saturday. MVFR to possibly IFR cigs will likely persist into Saturday as well. KSEA...VFR conditions into tonight. High clouds will increase through today. Cigs are expected to lower into MVFR Saturday morning, with a 50-60% probability of MVFR cigs by 18z Saturday and may likely continue thereafter. Showers will also begin to arrive after 06z tonight. North winds around 4 to 7 kts are expected to transition more W/NW this afternoon, mainly under 6 kts. Winds will become more S/SW late tonight into Saturday. JD/41 && .MARINE... Northerly flow will continue over the waters today. High pressure over the area will continue to weaken today as a low pressure system swings south from the Gulf of Alaska to the west of the coastal waters. No significant impacts expected from this system. High pressure will rebuild over the NE Pacific this weekend, while lower pressure remains situated inland, resulting in onshore flow. Periods of diurnal westerly pushes are expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend through into early next week. Guidance is hinting that the strongest push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will be Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence continues to increase for small craft winds through the central portion of the Strait. Current probabilities are around 50-80%. A frontal system will traverse area waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance continues to highlight increased winds for the coastal waters and portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Current probabilities of small craft winds for the coastal waters are 50-70% and 50-90% for the Strait of Juan de Fuca. There is a small chance (20-30%) for gales through the central portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca Tuesd.ay evening. Seas will remain below 10 ft through the weekend and into early next week, hovering between 4-7 ft. Seas will build on Wednesday towards 10 ft. 29 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected in the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

324 FXUS66 KPQR 101759 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1059 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .UPDATE... The SPC Convective Outlook has been updated, with now a Marginal Risk for severe weather from Eugene to Molalla. Most areas outside of this corridor remains under a General Thunderstorm Risk. Storms are most likely between 1 PM and 11PM today. && .SYNOPSIS... Warm and unsettled weather is expected today as broad southerly flow keeps shower and thunderstorm chances overhead into the first half of the weekend, especially across the Cascades and adjacent foothills. At this point chances for severe thunderstorms appear low (5-10%) but activity may be impactful nonetheless. Next week we`ll eventually transition into more of a westerly to northwesterly flow pattern leading to the return of cooler temperatures, Cascade snowfall, and increasing precipitation chances for late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...It takes a fairly specific set-up for Western Oregon and Southwestern Washington to see widespread thunderstorm activity, and for those aching to see a little lightning (much like this meteorologist), today and Saturday are shaping up to be best chances we`ve seen so far this year. Although, as with most of our thunderstorm potential here in the Pacific Northwest, it`s not without a potential pitfall or two - nuances in variables like sky-cover can make or break storm development. As far the overall set-up is concerned, one of the most important pieces is already in place early this morning in the form of an upper-level closed low off the far northern California coastline currently circulating mid to high clouds overhead and indicative of increasing moisture aloft while void of any Pacific marine influence. As the days goes on, this low pressure is expected to ever so slowly drift northward and transition to more of an open wave feature while placing the region beneath further strengthening southerly to southeasterly flow accompanied by broad upper-level divergence. These over- arching synoptics combined with increasing moisture values (PWATs near the 90-95% percentile for this time of year), and daytime heating should provide the ingredients to facilitate deeper convection. Most CAMs and deterministic models depict around 400-800 j/kg of MUCAPE by the mid to late afternoon hours. Assuming this amount of CAPE is truly available and activity is able to initiate (mainly along terrain features like the Cascades at first), effective shear values of ~25 knots could allow a storm or two to organize beyond your basic pop-up thunderstorm - an isolated and longer lived multicellular storm or two are possible mainly south of the Portland Metro where CAPE is maximized. Lightning, small hail, locally gusty winds, and heavy rain would be the primary impacts from any thunderstorm activity. While the overall set-up is decent for west of the Cascades crests, would place the chance of a severe T-storm at around ~5% - for additional context the aforementioned convective parameters don`t hold a candle to common set-ups east of the Rockies. Would be a bit more excited if MUCAPE values were 1000-1500+ j/kg and effective shear was 35+ knots but I digress. As far as timing is concerned, based on the latest 00z HREF and UW-WRF, showers and thunderstorms would most likely begin around Lane County in the early to mid afternoon hours (1-3pm) before working northward along the Cascades and I-5 corridor towards the Portland metro by the late afternoon/early evening (5-8pm). After this point due to the loss of daytime heating we`d likely transition back to just lingering showers for Friday night. Now there is one variable alluded to earlier which will play a pivotal role as to whether thunderstorms remain more isolated and pinned to the Cascades, or if modest convection is widespread and infiltrates westward into the I-5 corridor: cloud cover. Almost all of the high resolution guidance which is more bullish on thunderstorm activity (HRRR, UW-WRF, etc.) has mid to high level cloud cover clearing by the late morning and midday hours allowing us to enhance our daytime heating, while the 00z NAMNEST (bearish regarding storms) keeps added clouds overhead effectively capping our instability and limiting activity. This`ll be a key facet of the forecast to watch both today and this weekend. By Saturday, ensemble guidance indicates continued broad cyclonic flow over the Pacific Northwest as the previous closed low turned open wave ejects northward while weakening and a secondary upper-level low swings just off the coast of California effectively stalling the pattern. Shower chances peak area-wide in the afternoon with thunderstorm probabilities ranging from 15-35%, highest over the Oregon Cascades and foothills. While overall instability on Saturday afternoon appears a touch less than the day prior, only 300-600 j/kg of MUCAPE, the strongest cells may once again produce lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and moderate to heavy rain. Confidence is moderate to high come Sunday the upper-level low pressure previously off the California coast moves inland turning our flow more westerly and thus effectively ending any additional chances for thunderstorms outside of the Lane County Cascades (15% chance here). Still, wrap-around moisture on the northern periphery of the broader circulation will maintain showers chances, especially during the afternoon. Precipitation probabilities range from 60-90% over the Oregon Cascades and foothills to 30-60% for the rest of the region. High temperatures deflate back into the upper 50s to low 60s across the inland Valleys Sunday afternoon placing us close to normal for this time of year. A ho-hum end to a rather interesting couple of days. -Schuldt .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...To start the week ensemble models indicate the return to broad WNW-NW flow aloft with a weak embedded shortwave likely moving overhead on Monday maintaining shower chances (50-90%, highest Cascades). Temperatures stay near to slightly below seasonal normals as well. Shower coverage is expected to decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning thanks to a transient ridge briefly build overhead. Our attention then turns to the next Pacific frontal system expected to arrive sometime between late Tuesday and Wednesday while dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. While timing differences persist among ensemble members, confidence continue to increase in the return of widespread precipitation during this mid-week timeframe. It`s worth noting cooling temperatures along and behind the frontal boundary will likely push snow levels to or just below the Cascade passes sparking renewed snowfall concerns for these areas, primarily during the overnight hours. The NBM shows a 50-70% chance for the Cascade passes to see 6+ inches of snowfall from 5pm Tuesday to 5pm Thursday with a 10-30% for 12+ inches during that same period. This`ll be something to keep an eye on as we get into next week in addition to the return of marginal frost concerns mid to late week as well. -Schuldt && .AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions are in place across the region with mid to high level clouds slowly moving from south to north across the airspace. Currently, the lone exception is KEUG where patchy fog has developed and is resulting in intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions which is expected to linger through around 18Z Friday. Expect the airspace to remain relatively dry through around 18Z-20Z Friday. After this point showers and thunderstorms likely develop around Lane County before pushing northward along and east of the I-5 corridor through 03Z-06Z Saturday. Given decent model consistency, have added PROB30 groups for thunderstorms for KEUG, KSLE, KUAO and KHIO as those sites currently have the highest chance to see activity. Confidence remains relatively lower (15-25% chance) for other inland terminals, but the highest chance for thunderstorms at these locations is from around 00Z Saturday through 04Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances across the airspace rapidly decrease after 06Z Friday. It should be noted locations that do see stronger showers or thunderstorms will have the potential for lightning, small hail, moderate to heavy rain, and gusty/erratic outflow wind gusts up to 45 knots. This activity would also result in intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions if it moves directly overhead. After 03Z-06Z Saturday, conditions start to settle and will result in lowered flight conditions with lingering showers across the airspace. This will bring IFR/LIFR conditions to the coast and VFR/MVFR conditions for inland locations. These conditions are expected to persist through the end of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect predominately VFR flight conditions through the TAF period with mid to high cloud cover at times. Locally, shower (50-70%) and thunderstorm (15-25%) chances ramp up around 00Z Saturday before diminishing around 06Z Saturday. Stronger showers or thunderstorms will have the potential for lightning, small hail, moderate to heavy rain, and gusty and erratic outflow wind particularly at the onset of activity in the late afternoon hours if it occurs. After 07Z Saturday, conditions will start to settle with a mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions that will persist through the end of the TAF period. /42-99 && .MARINE... Overall conditions remain rather benign the next several days as north to northwest winds switch southerly today into tonight before shifting more westerly by the start of next week. Confidence is high wind gusts hold below 20 kt through the Monday into Monday night. Seas around 4 to 7 ft persist through the middle of next week as well. It`s worth quickly noting there is a ~10% chance of thunderstorms today through Saturday across all waters rotating in from the southeast. Any thunderstorms that do develop could produce lightning hail, gusty and erratic winds as well as a less than 2% chance for a funnel cloud or waterspout. Our attention turns to the arrival of a decently strong frontal boundary the second half of Tuesday into Wednesday likely bringing the return of Small Craft Advisory wind gusts and seas around 7-10 ft. -99/42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

444 FXUS66 KMFR 101221 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 521 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .DISCUSSION...The morning there will be showers and thunderstorms moving into Northern California around 10 AM- 12 PM, and this will continue moving north through the afternoon. Forecast afternoon CAPEs are reaching 250- 400 J/kg, and this is concentrated in Siskiyou County and on west side. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be in Siskiyou County and west of the Cascades, with a 30-40% probability at its peak this afternoon. CAMs are supporting this northward movement, and once again this has some of the thunderstorms arriving in Jackson and Josephine counties near the end of the school day (1-3 PM). Most of the Southern Oregon activity will occur between 1-6 PM, although forecast CAMs show some scattered shower activity between 6- 8 PM in Jackson County to eastern Douglas County. A general thunderstorm risk exists today and tomorrow across the area, and gusty winds and downpours are possible in the strongest storms. Snow levels will fall to 5,500`-6,000` tonight, and the heaviest snow will fall in Northern California. Between 11 PM tonight through 11 PM Saturday, near 8"-12" is forecast to fall in the Marbles and near 2-3 feet at Mt. Shasta. Through the weekend the Cascades are forecast to see mostly 2"-5", and 6"-9" near Crater Lake. Long Term: Heading into next week, nothing really stood out on the extreme forecast index(EFI). There are some hints at another trough sliding down the north west, which would lead to cooler more unstable air and more showers for the forecast region. The probability of precipitation increases around Tuesday and Wednesday during this time with a 50 to 60 percent chance of precipitation. 10% of the ENS members show the Cascades seeing another 3-6 inches of snow with this northwest flow and cold front around Wednesday. So there is still a chance to get some more snow in the mountains here in early April. && .AVIATION...10/12Z TAFs...LIFR ceilings are present in west side valleys. North Bend observations are out, however satellite and nearby observations bring more confidence that there is LIFR conditions there as well. These conditions are expected to improve later this morning, however showers and thunderstorms move in from the south then. Between 2-6 PM is when there will be the most activity in Southern Oregon. Gusty and erratic winds are possible. Thunderstorm activity is forecast to ease around 8 PM, although scattered showers will continue along and east of the Cascades tonight. -Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Friday, April 10, 2026...For the remainder of the week, breezy north winds will persist, generally remaining below advisory criteria. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the waters during the afternoon and evening today. The upper level pattern transitions over the weekend, bringing less thunderstorms and more widespread shower activity into early next week. Seas are likely to remain below advisory criteria early next week while breezy winds become westerly and seas transition to northwest swell dominated. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

011 FXUS66 KEKA 100703 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1203 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS...More scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area Friday. Saturday is expected to see more widespread rain and mountain snow. Sunday the showers are expected to come to an end as the cold air moves in. A chilly start to the week is expected with frost or freezing temperatures possible in the colder spots. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level remains just off the coast this morning. This is expected to become an open wave trough and move onshore bringing additional thunderstorms to the area on Friday. These are expected to pick up again, but the models are struggling on the timing. The HRRR shows them increasing in coverage and intensity before sunrise while a bigger percentage of the models show the increase later in the morning and into the afternoon. These are expected to not be as strong as on Thursday. Deep shear is also lower than Thursday with only around 25 to 30 kt. Upper level lapse rates are quite a bit lower, only around 6.5 to 7c/km. The biggest change is more showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in Mendocino and Lake counties than on Thursday. Friday night the next upper level low rapidly approaches the west coast. The models are coming into better agreement on this low dropping to near or just south of the area before it reaches the coast. An associated occluded front is expected to bring a round of heavier rain and snow to much of the area through the day on Saturday. A fairly widespread area of a around 0.75 to 1 inch is expected with local amounts around 2 inches in the mountains. Snow levels are generally expected to be around 5000 to 6000 feet as the main front moves through. This brings only a 25 percent chance of seeing more than 2 inches at Scott Mountain pass which is at 5500 feet in northern Trinity county. This low on Saturday is also expected to bring a fairly brief period of stronger winds to southern Mendocino and Lake counties. For now it looks like these will mainly be over the higher terrain with gusts to 40 mph. There may be a few locally higher gusts over the highest peaks. Saturday night and Sunday the upper low finally moves onshore. The ensemble clusters show this somewhere between SF Bay and Cape Mendocino. There is also some uncertainty on how cold this system will be. Currently the forecast rainfall amounts range from a quarter inch in the north to over a half inch in the south of additional rain. Snow levels are generally expected to drop as low as 4,000 feet Sunday morning before rising above 5,000 feet again in the afternoon. This could bring a few inches of snow as low as 4,000 feet. MKK .Long term...Much colder temperatures are likely during and and behind this frontal passage. Near-freezing to sub-freezing temperatures are forecast, especially Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. Frost advisories and/or freeze warnings might be needed. Looking towards next week, about half of ensemble members show at least weak ridging developing by mid next week, with the other half showing the continuation of the troughing (wet) pattern. Stay tuned! JB && .AVIATION...Conditions continue to vary widely as showers pass through the aviation sites. When there are breaks in the showers this allows low clouds and fog to develop. Shower coverage is expected to increase later this morning and afternoon. There will also be the potential for thunderstorms once again. The highest chance will be over the inland areas including KUKI. They may also make it out to the coast, but confidence is lower on this so have held off on adding them to the forecast. Tonight showers are expected to diminish in coverage, but this may allow more low clouds to form. MKK && .MARINE...The approach of a cutoff low brought dangerous lightning, hail and erratic gusty winds to area waters through Thursday early evening. Most of the severe weather was inland but a Marine Weather Statement was issued for the southern outer waters Thursday morning to warn of the hazard. Model data also strongly suggests that Friday morning will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with a similar threat of lightning, small hail and erratic wind gusts. All area waters from Point St. George down to Point Arena are susceptible to hazardous marine conditions through the early evening on Saturday. Otherwise, there are NW swells around 15 seconds with wave heights 3- 5ft but conditions between the pressure systems will be fairly benign. Saturday an area of low pressure is expected to approach the coast from the northwest and move through the waters off the Mendocino coast. Confidence is low on the strength and track of the low which could lead to stronger than expected winds. /EYS/MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

912 FXUS66 KMTR 101931 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1231 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 - Rain and thunderstorms through the weekend - Gradual warming and drying trend next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 (This evening through Saturday) A mid/upper level low pressure system remains about 100 miles off of the northern California coast. This feature has resulted in widespread rain showers across our region the past 24 hours with the North Bay picking up between 0.25"-1.25". Lesser amounts have been reported south of the North Bay, but some coastal and mountain locations have received up to 0.75". Overall, this has been greater than originally forecasted. This band of rain showers continues to shift inland and the threat for rain showers and thunderstorms will persist throughout the afternoon and evening, especially as day time heating increases surface based CAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing lightning, locally heavy rainfall, erratic/gusty winds, and small hail. Weak low-level wind shear does not support a mention of rotation that would lead to tornadoes and/or waterspouts through this evening. Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue into the night, yet chances for both trend downward overnight. An approaching mid/upper level low is forecast to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday and move inland Sunday afternoon across northern California. This is when we have all three ingredients for thunderstorms: lift, instability, and moisture. Some of the higher resolution and conviction-allowing models (CAMs) such as the RRFS indicate the potential for a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) to move across the Bay Area and Central Coast Saturday afternoon and evening. This will be when we have the greatest potential for rotating cells that may produce waterspouts and/or weak tornadoes. In coordination with the Storm Prediction Center, we have been upgraded to a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The greatest potential being the threat of wind exceeding 40 knots. From previous forecaster: "Anglers should take special note of the expected weather and have a plan to reach safe harbor quickly when the weather turns. Even without thunderstorms, the marine conditions will deteriorate through the day Saturday. If thunderstorms develop, the associated wind gusts are capable of capsizing small vessels. Fishing leads to more lightning deaths in the U.S. than any other activity. When thunder roars, head indoors!" && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) The rainfall amounts continue to trend higher today through Sunday with 0.50"-0.75" in the southern Salinas Valley, 1"-2" across much of the Bay Area and Central Coast, and up locally up to 4" in the coastal ranges. However, this rainfall will be mostly beneficial with no widespread river flooding anticipated. However, we can still see ponding of water on roadways, minor urban and small stream flooding, and flooding of poorly drained areas. This will be especially so if any heavier showers and/or thunderstorms develop and train over any one given area. Post-frontal rain showers and isolated thunderstorm will continue into Sunday as a colder air mass settles into the region. This is when we may see snow fall across the higher peaks across the region, however little to no snow accumulation is expected. Lingering rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may persist into early Monday morning before a warming and drying trend resumes by Monday afternoon. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected Monday afternoon before rebounding to near seasonal averages by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 It`s a challenging day for TAFs, as we have scattered showers moving through the region leaving mix of IFR to VFR ceilings and visibility. Expect skies to remain partly to mostly cloud for the next few hours, with perhaps some clearing this afternoon. Given the lingering moisture and the potential for some sunshine there may be a renewed push for isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and evening. The big question will be thunderstorm chances. The SPC mesoanalysis page currently shows decent surface CAPE, around 500- 1000 J/kg, low level lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km, and LI`s around 0 to -1. In terms of shear, aka as lift, we currently have around 20-30kt. This would support thunderstorm potential if conditions continue to hold or continue to become more favorable for development. For now, there is no mention of VCTS or TS in the TAFs, excluding LVK, but my current thinking is that timing would look to be between 20-3Z for Bay Area terminals. Here the chance of thunderstorms range from 30-50%, favoring the interior North and East Bay areas. Vicinity of SFO...VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast this afternoon and evening due to lingering clouds and showers moving through the region. As noted above conditions are becoming favorable for thunderstorms. KSFO has the about a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms from 18-0Z this afternoon with chances falling to 15-20% until 3-4Z. For now, there is no mention of VCTS or TS/TSRA in the TAF, but it will be something to monitor this afternoon and evening. After that, there might be some showers that pass through tonight and into tomorrow morning. Winds begin to increase tomorrow afternoon and into the evening, as the next storm system arrives. 20-25kt gusts are possible from 21-0Z on Saturday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...A mix of sun and clouds should lead to VFR conditions through the afternoon. Showers, roughly a 20-30% chance, and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm, around 15-20%, will be possible through 0Z. The forecast becomes tricky once again, with models showing additional rounds of -SHRA or VCSH this evening and into the early overnight hours. MVFR cigs would be expected with these conditions, but also have the potential to occur without rain. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms remain in the forecast today. The next round of precipitation arrives late Saturday into Sunday, as the next weather system arrives. Increasing winds are expected, with isolated gale force gusts from Pigeon Point to Point Pinos. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh northwest winds developing early next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...KR MARINE...KR Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

842 FXUS66 KOTX 101833 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1133 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and the potential for afternoon thunderstorms this weekend. - Storm system around the middle of next week will bring the potential for valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Today will be the last warm and dry day of the week before a weather system moves in this weekend. Chances for showers increase tonight into Saturday along with isolated afternoon thunderstorms, breezy winds, and slightly cooler temperatures. Showers continue over the Idaho Panhandle on Monday before a break between systems Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front passage Tuesday night into Wednesday will bring additional rain in the lowlands outside the rain shadow areas east of the Cascades, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Today: The Inland Northwest gets one more mostly dry, mild day as a ridge of high pressure gives way to an developing system. Clouds will gradually increase today, mainly as high clouds this morning and then thickening and slowly lowering clouds this afternoon. Winds will be from east-northeast today, breezy over the north ID Valley and out toward the Upper Columbia Basin with gusts in the 10-20 mph range with a moderate northeast to southwest gradient developing ahead of the approaching system. The main chance for rain comes this afternoon near the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Tonight to Monday: The incoming trough bring the Inland NW into a more active pattern. Models have been evolving over the past few days. A trough is digging south from the Gulf of AK, while low pressure sits off the OR/CA coast. As we head into tonight and this weekend the more southern low weakens and pushes east- northeast into the Great Basin and the northern Rockies through Saturday. Meanwhile the Gulf of AK low digs toward the CA coast and follows that first low inland through Monday morning. This is different than previous days when the merged and brought a stronger system at least into the vicinity of our area. Nonetheless, a PWAT plume of 150-200% of normal lifts in tonight into Saturday and lingers into Sunday, before starting to dry out some Monday. A deformation axis lifts northward into the region between tonight and Saturday and lingers into Sunday, before starting pull out Monday. All this means increasing precipitation chances through the weekend, decreasing Monday. What has declined is the overall precipitation amounts for some of the area. It still looks like mostly rain and high mountain snow. Around 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible between Saturday and Monday over southeast WA and the central and southern Panhandle, with locally higher amounts possible. Those higher amount areas could waver depending on the precise location of the boundaries, so further adjustments are possible but right now the Camas Prairie to southern Shoshone county could see around 1 inch of rain this period. Toward the northern mountains and north ID around 0.15 to 0.40 inches are in the forecast, while the Spokane metro and CdA area have around 0.05 to 0.20 inches in the forecast right now, less than this time yesterday. Similar amounts are possible toward the Cascades, while the central WA/deeper basin could see trace to a couple hundredths of an inch of rain. If any snow does fall in the mountains it look like minor, with little to no impacts. There remains a 10-30% chance for thunderstorms each afternoon between Saturday and Monday. The highest risk is on Saturday, with most areas seeing at least some risk. Sunday the risk become more localized to the eastern third of WA and ID and by Monday mainly over the far northeast WA and north ID counties. Brief gusty wind, lightning, maybe small hail will be the main risk. Winds will be breezy this weekend, with gusts around 10-20 mph. Then heading into Monday as the system starts to move out and the drier westerly flow develops some higher winds start to in. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be possible, higher near the Cascades to western Columbia Basin and near the Blues. Highs will be largely in the 60s to low 70s this weekend, then the upper 50s to 60s Monday. Lows are forecast to be in largely in the 40s. Tuesday to Thursday: The region starts off in the westerly flow, but another strong low pressure drops in from the Gulf of AK Tuesday night into Wednesday and only slowly starts to migrate east Thursday. This more direct track into the region will mean more precipitation chances and lower snow levels, including a potential for moderate snows around the mountain passes, and breezy/gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures. Tuesday precipitation chances linger around the mountains, then start to expand back out Tuesday night and Wednesday, before retreating toward the mountains again Thursday. The highest potential will be around the mountain zones and some moderate precipitation amounts are possible. This will be largely mountain snow and lowland rain, but a rain/snow mix will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Also between Tuesday and Wednesday a foot of snow may fall around Stevens Pass, with 7 inches possible near Snoqualmie Pass, 4 inches at Lookout and 2 inches are Sherman. Some current ensemble 48-hour snowfall probabilities: 2" 4" 6" 12" Stevens Pass 95% 90% 85% 40% Snoqualmie Pass 85% 75% 55% 20% Lookout Pass 85% 60% 45% 3% Sherman Pass 30% 10% 5% 0% So winter conditions are not done, even for perhaps for the lowlands. Winds will also be breezy/gusty with gusts on Tuesday and Wednesday between 25-40 mph. Winds decline some for Thursday with gusts right now forecast between 10-20 mph. Highs will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Lows will be in the mid-20s to 30s, with Thursday morning the coldest with potential for many areas seeing near to sub-freezing temperatures. So if any have started to do anything with sensitive plants, you might want to keep an eye on this forecast. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High pressure peaks early Friday before low pressure starts to take over. The next 18 hours through 12Z look dry. Passing high clouds will be seen through Friday morning before mid level clouds increase Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Some rain chances start to develop near the Cascades and southern WA into the southern to central Panhandle Friday night after 03Z, but confidence in TAF sites being impacted by showers this early is low. VFR conditions expected through Friday night, but ceilings will continue to lower into Saturday with increasing low level moisture. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. A possible scenario is some light rain may come to PUW/LWS/EAT/MWH between 03-12Z Saturday, but confidence is low. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 69 45 61 42 65 43 / 0 20 50 30 30 30 Coeur d`Alene 68 46 61 43 64 43 / 0 20 60 50 50 50 Pullman 68 45 60 42 62 43 / 10 30 70 40 60 60 Lewiston 70 49 65 45 64 47 / 10 30 70 30 60 60 Colville 71 44 65 42 68 41 / 0 10 50 50 50 30 Sandpoint 65 44 60 44 61 42 / 0 20 60 60 60 50 Kellogg 69 46 58 43 62 43 / 0 20 80 50 70 60 Moses Lake 73 47 68 41 70 44 / 0 20 30 10 10 10 Wenatchee 69 50 65 45 67 46 / 10 20 30 10 10 10 Omak 71 49 67 46 68 43 / 0 10 30 30 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

625 FXUS66 KPDT 101803 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1103 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of thunderstorms continue through Sunday. - Cooling trend will progress through next week. - Secondary wet pattern going into mid-next week. && .DISCUSSION... Radar depicts dry conditions, with satellite showing an upper level low off California that will continue to push east. Behind that, a secondary upper low will push inland around the early Sunday morning timeframe. This will continue to bring active/semi-active weather in the picture for the next several days. Sufficient CAPE will develop in the late Friday afternoon hours, allowing for thunderstorm activity to expand Friday- Saturday. Areas mostly concerned for thunderstorm chances (15-25%) will be along Central Oregon through the Wallowas with the main development hours around 2-6PM. Saturday becomes a bit uncertain regarding thunderstorm chances. Although it looks like the aerial coverage now includes the Foothills of the Blues, I`m uncertain how widespread thunderstorms will develop due to abundant cloud coverage over the area. Areas with more breaks in the clouds (or have more time to heat from the sun) will see greater chances of widespread thunderstorms to develop. It can`t be ruled out that some of these storms can produce pea to penny size hail in the strongest developing cells with some embedded gusty winds. By Monday, things begin to calm down with drier conditions entering the picture as the trough progresses to the east with a more zonal pattern moving into the region. Our cooling trend will continue through mid-next week (75-95% chance) as a second low pressure system drops through the Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia area by the Wednesday timeframe that will reset another valley rain/mountain snow event. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated for the next 24 hours. However, chances of sub-VFR VSBYs and/or CIGs in showers and/or thunderstorms increase this afternoon and evening to 30-50 percent for BDN/RDM with lower 10-30 percent chances of sub-VFR conditions for all other sites overnight into Saturday morning. Winds of 10 kts or less are forecast, though gusty outflow winds in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms will likely (80 percent confidence) disrupt the background wind field such that confidence in details of the wind forecast is low- medium (30-60 percent) for any given site. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 67 46 65 43 / 40 40 70 20 ALW 68 49 66 46 / 30 40 70 30 PSC 73 49 71 44 / 10 30 50 10 YKM 72 47 66 41 / 0 30 50 10 HRI 70 47 69 44 / 20 30 50 10 ELN 69 45 60 39 / 0 30 50 10 RDM 66 39 60 37 / 60 80 70 60 LGD 69 45 62 41 / 50 50 80 60 GCD 64 43 61 39 / 80 60 70 70 DLS 72 50 68 47 / 10 50 60 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...86

917 FXUS65 KREV 101011 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 311 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Better chances for valley rain and mountain snow expected today with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Thunderstorms in Western Nevada this afternoon have potential to become severe. * Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the Sierra and Northeast California for significant snowfall and strong winds with impacts starting as early as Friday evening for the Eastern Sierra. * Precipitation chances will continue through the weekend as temperatures trend cooler and winds increase. Light snow showers may be possible down to the valley floor in the Sierra Front on Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar imagery reports showers continuing in the region this morning mostly in Pershing and Churchill Counties as well as the Sierra with a few stray showers in other areas. Forecast guidance shows an upper level low moving into N CA today which starts open into a shortwave and become absorbed within a stronger PacNW low right behind it tonight. This upper pattern will allow for precipitation chances to increase today to between 40-90% by this afternoon. Upon looking at model convective parameters, forecast CAPE values look to top off between 200-800 J/kg with midlevel lapse rates over 7C/km and 0-6km wind shear reaching around 35-55 kts. With this sort of unstable environment today, thunderstorm chances will be 15-35% with storms being of the isolated to scattered variety. Areas that see the higher-end values in convection potential look to be Pershing and Churchill Counties as well as adjacent portions of Washoe, Storey, Lyon, and Mineral Counties. Because of this, the SPC has placed these parts of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. This means that storms that occur in these areas have the potential to produce erratic outflow wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Not going to rule out severe thunderstorms outside of the aforementioned areas, but they are leaning non-severe currently (outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail possible). Please have a way to receive weather updates and alerts today and stay safe! While shower chances are seen throughout today, the window for storms looks to open around 11AM-12PM with peak convection time in the late afternoon. Models do show thunderstorm chances continuing in the NV Basin and Range area going through the overnight hours though the severe threat should diminish before today ends. Winds still look to increase today as well with south to southwest winds gusting to 60-80 mph at the crest. With the stronger low moving into N CA through the weekend, Saturday and Sunday see similar precipitation chances as today with a slightly lower thunderstorm chance (10-20%). As area temperatures are in a cooling trend (around seasonal normals today and below normal through the weekend), snow levels will drop to around 7500- 8000 ft by this evening allowing for snow to start accumulating especially for the higher portions of the Eastern Sierra. Going through the weekend, snow levels in NE CA and the Sierra look to continue to drop (with a brief rebound to around 7 kft on Saturday afternoon) before getting to below 6 kft on Sunday morning. As such, Winter Storm Watches remain in effect in NE CA and the Sierra for Saturday and Sunday (the Watch in Eastern Sierra starts on Friday evening as accumulating snow in the higher elevations may occur sooner). For more details including snowfall forecast amounts as well as the increased strong winds in these areas (up to 100 mph at the Sierra crest), consult the Winter Storm Watch product. The latest Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) shows minor to moderate impacts expected over the weekend with pockets of major to extreme impacts at the Sierra crest. For more information on what these impact levels mean, visit weather.gov/rev/winter especially if you plan to travel over the Sierra this weekend. There is a still good chance for a boom-bust scenario situation based on how unreliable the models have been with this system through this week. However, the latest NBM probabilities show around a 50-60% chance for 2+ ft of snowfall at the Sierra crest by Sunday night. Hopefully later today, confidence will improve on forecast snowfall amounts so continue to watch for forecast updates as they become available. As for other areas of the CWA, snow levels are likely to come down to 4500 ft by Sunday morning which could result in light amounts of snow for valley floors over western NV, especially for the Sierra Front. Foothill areas above 5000 ft could get a few inches, generally less than 4 inches by Sunday morning. The Reno-Carson City-Minden areas may just see a rain-snow mix Saturday night, but there is 10-30% probability according to the NBM to see at least 0.1 inches of snowfall by Sunday morning which could cause some slick roads for those driving around at that time. In the valley areas, gusts of 30-40 mph are going to be likely this weekend with wind-prone areas potentially reaching 40-50 mph. For Monday through around mid-week, drier conditions are expected with temperatures starting to rebound before models indicate the potential of another system pushing through the Great Basin. There still is plenty of uncertainty with that next storm system, so continue to monitor for updates as models come into better agreement next week. -078 && .AVIATION... Precipitation chances increase to around 40-90% and become more widespread across the region today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (15-35% chance) are also forecast today within the region with the W NV Basin and Range seeing a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Higher portions of NE CA and the Sierra transition to snow during the day which may affect visibilities. Area terminals expect to see increased wind gusts up to around 25-30 kts while Sierra ridge winds reach up to around 50 kts. KTRK and KTVL will have MVFR ceilings starting around 10/17-18Z while the other TAFs sites stay with VFR restrictions. Cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon around all terminals, which could produce sub-VFR conditions and erratic outflow gusts. Will monitor for this and amend TAFs as needed. Similar precipitation chances are expected through the weekend. Snow impacts for Sierra terminals are looking more likely by Saturday with generally around 5-10 inches of accumulation possible for KTRK, KTVL, KMMH by Monday morning. Sierra Front terminals could also see -SHRASN on Saturday night. -078 && Increasing chances for periods of moderate to heavy snowfall in the Sierra today and again this weekend: * Today: 40-80% chance of showers with a 20-40% chance afternoon thunderstorms along the Sierra. Any snow (1-5") will be limited to elevations over 7.5 kft (over 8 kft for Mono county). Snow ratios of 8-11:1 in Mono county, decreasing to 4-8:1 as you progress northward into the Tahoe Basin. Gusty south to southwest winds of 60-80 mph at ridgetops also expected. * Saturday-Monday Morning: Snow levels below 6.5 kft by Saturday morning, increasing to around 7 kft by the afternoon before dropping below 6 kft by early Sunday morning. Snow ratios of 8- 12:1 Saturday before increasing to 12-15:1 by Sunday as colder air moves in. Low confidence on timing at this point, though the heaviest snowfall rates look to be Saturday evening into Sunday morning. SWE of 2.0-2.50" along the Sierra crest for the Tahoe Basin with 1.5-2.0" for Mono county. Snowfall totals up to 3 feet along the Sierra crest in the Tahoe Basin with up to 2 feet for the crest in Mono county. Strong and gusty south-southwest winds are expected on Saturday with ridgetop gusts of 80-100 mph expected. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening NVZ002. CA...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening CAZ071-072. Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Sunday evening CAZ073. && $$

412 FXUS66 KSTO 101839 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1139 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures and active weather through the weekend with rain, strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and mountain snow. - Winter Storm Warning in effect for the Sierra and Southern Cascades Friday evening through Sunday evening. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through the Weekend... Current upper air pattern has a 500mb trough off the coast of California moving onshore today and through the weekend. Southerly flow of instability and moisture has helped develop showers and storms within the forecast area, with continued chances for storms this afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate low LCL, CAPE indices around 800-1500 J/kg, weak low level shear, and long CAPE through the atmosphere. This type of set up brings the chance for large hail (1 inch plus), accumulating hail, strong winds, moderate rainfall rates (locally heavy), and brief weak tornadoes. Currently this morning, we have had a few pulse/multi cellular storms develop along the foothills/valley with a report of accumulating hail east of the Orville, CA area. Latest CAMS have continued development through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with the prime time for thunderstorm activity this afternoon and early evening when speed shear, directional shear, and instability is at its peak. Continued chances for strong to potential severe storms again Saturday and into Sunday as the upper level system moves through CA. If you are headed out, keep an eye on the skies and have a way to receive watches, warnings, and statements today and through the weekend. As the system moves onshore and we filter in cooler air aloft, precipitation changes over to snow within the mountains. Latest NBM has kept the forecasted snow totals roughly the same, with slightly lower snow levels Sunday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from this evening through Sunday evening for elevations above 4500 feet. Snow levels today will be above 6000 feet and lower toward 4000-5000 feet by Sunday. Heaviest snow rates and lowest snow levels are expected to be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday where major impacts to mountain travel are anticipated. Mountain travel is discouraged this weekend. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible within the Sierra Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Gusty southerly winds are also forecasted, with the strongest on Saturday. The north/central Sacramento Valley, northeast foothills and Sierra Crest will see the strongest winds of 35-45mph. We will continue to monitor the trends in the forecast to see if a product will be needed for the winds. ...Next Week... A return to drier and warmer temperatures early to mid next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. How amplified the ridge becomes is uncertain as latest guidance from the NBM suggests the ridge flattening out mid to late week. This would bring the chance for isolated showers and a few snow showers within the mountains. Amounts, timing, and development of any potential system mid to late next week is uncertain at this time with confidence being low. && .AVIATION... MVFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with periods of IFR in and around any thunderstorm activity. Showers and storms will continue to move through the region through the weekend. Winds, in and around thunderstorms may become erratic with direction changes and quick speed changes. Otherwise, surface winds will be out of the south for sites around Sacramento through RDD and RBL. MOD and SCK will see winds out of the NW. Surface winds will be around 10-12kts, with periodic gusts to 20kts in RDD and RBL. Winds will be on the stronger side tomorrow in the northern Sacramento Valley, with gusts up to 45mph at times. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$

531 FXUS65 KMSO 101825 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1225 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin this afternoon south of I-90, bringing a threat of sudden, gusty winds. - A weekend storm brings widespread rain and cooler temperatures. Light snow accumulations are possible over the highest terrain and Lost Trail Pass. - A much colder system arrives Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the potential for snow to fall down to the valley floors. Moisture will begin pushing into north-central Idaho and western Montana, primarily south of the I-90 corridor, this afternoon. Expect increasing clouds followed by scattered showers and a 15 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms over Lemhi, southern Idaho, and Ravalli counties heading into the evening. Because the air near the surface is currently very dry, rain falling from these initial showers will evaporate before hitting the ground. This can produce sudden, erratic wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at the surface. A low-pressure system moves inland on Saturday, dragging abundant moisture into the Northern Rockies. Saturday afternoon will feature widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms as daytime temperatures peak. The highest chance for lightning (20 to 30 percent) will be across western Idaho and Clearwater counties, and into west-central Montana. The strongest storms could produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds. By Sunday, the system transitions into a widespread precipitation event as cooler air begins filtering into the region. While temperatures will cool, snow will largely be confined to the higher terrain. Travel impacts this weekend should be minimal, though some light, slushy accumulations are possible over Lost Trail Pass. Monday through Thursday: Unsettled weather continues on Monday with valley rain and high-elevation mountain snow. However, the main focus for next week is a strong cold front slated to arrive Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring a significant drop in temperatures, with current forecasts showing snow levels plummeting to 1500-2000 feet by Thursday morning. This introduces the potential for snow to fall all the way down to the valley floors. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the exact details of this Wednesday-Thursday system. The primary unknown is how much moisture will still be around when the coldest air arrives. If the moisture is pushed out quickly by the front, valley snow accumulations will be minimal. If the cold air and moisture overlap perfectly, we could see accumulating valley snow and more widespread travel impacts. We will be monitoring this closely over the coming days. .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals early this afternoon. High clouds will continue to thicken and stream in from south to north. Shower activity will follow, bringing roughly a 30 percent chance for showers at KSMN and KHRF starting around 2200Z and lasting through the overnight hours. A very dry lower atmosphere will be highly conducive to sudden, gusty, and erratic winds accompanying any shower or thunderstorm activity late today into tonight. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

016 FXUS65 KBOI 101825 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1225 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Strongest storms Friday afternoon, bringing gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. - Dry and mild Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures with periods of precipitation through Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 254 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026 An active day is in store Friday. As a Gulf of Alaska low digs down off the California coast, a shortwave embedded in southerly flow aloft will cross over our area. This will allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop Friday afternoon. Cooling aloft associated with the shortwave and diurnal heating will allow MU CAPE values of 500+ J/kg. The instability, paired with 0-6km shear of 40-50 kt and steep mid-level lapse rates, will support strong to severe thunderstorms. The best overlap of these variables will be over Owyhee (ID) and Malheur(OR) Counties, although instability will support thunder chances area-wide. Storms will move south to north through the afternoon, with the primary hazards being strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. The threat of thunderstorms will linger into overnight hours over the West Central Mountains with model soundings keeping elevated instability. Showers will continue Saturday through Saturday evening as the low continues to move inland and another shortwave crosses our area. Cooler surface temperatures (lower valley temperatures in the 60s) will limit the amount of destabilization. However, cooling aloft associated with the passing shortwave will allow weak instability to develop. The greatest threat for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will come roughly east of a line from Baker City, OR through the Owyhee mountains. The unsettled pattern continues Sunday, as the main low continues to move inland. Despite surface temperatures cooling yet again, colder air advecting in aloft will continue to compensate for the reduced heat at the surface. This will lead to another 10-25% chance of thunderstorms across much of our area. These will be weaker in nature and embedded within stratiform showers; however, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain will be the primary threat. Precipitation chances will be 80+ percent come Sunday afternoon. Precipitation associated with this low and its progression over our area (Sunday through Monday), is currently forecast to range from 0.5-1 inch across E-Oregon (up to 1.5-2 inches over the Steens Mountain), and 0.25-0.5 inches across SW Idaho (up to 1-1.5 inches over the Owyhees and higher peaks of the central Idaho mountains). Locations above 6500 feet MSL in the central Idaho mountains will see 2-8 inches of snow over the same time frame. This precipitation will lead to rises in rivers and streams. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 254 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026 The unsettled pattern will continue through the long-term, as the trough continues to move inland over our area. Precipitation chances Monday will remain elevated at a 40-90% chance, highest over terrain. See the short term discussion for precipitation amounts. Temperatures on Monday will drop to below normal with a cold frontal passage. As the trough exits to the east, precipitation chances will taper off come Tuesday. Guidance is in good agreement on another trough digging down from the Gulf of Alaska and crossing over our area. This will lead to another period of increased precipitation chances across the area. Precipitation will taper off again Thursday behind the trough and associated cold front. Persistent northwest flow aloft and multiple cold fronts will keep temperatures leaning below normal throughout the long-term period. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1225 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026 VFR. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and small hail will be ongoing through the afternoon and evening. Storms will move from south-to-north with time. The most intense thunderstorms should move across the region during late afternoon into early evening. Mountains obscured in low clouds and precipitation. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-10 kt in the afternoon, with variable gusts up to 50 kt near thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: S-SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Intermittent rain showers and scattered thunderstorms (30-40% chance) Friday afternoon through overnight. Thunderstorms capable of gusty outflows, brief heavy rain, and small hail. Surface winds: NW 8-12 kt, with variable gusts up to 40 kts near thunderstorms. Weekend Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area Saturday. Storms may be strong and produce heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Thunderstorm chances will be more limited on Sunday, but widespread rain and mtn snow are expected. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in precipitation with mountain obscuration. Snow levels 6500-8000 feet Saturday, lowering to 5500-7000 on Sunday. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-10 kt Saturday and W-SW 10-15 kt Sunday with afternoon gusts to 30 kt both days. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF

176 FXUS65 KLKN 101831 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV 1131 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably warm through today * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern and central Nevada through Saturday evening * Strong, gusty winds in Central Nevada today and Saturday * Precipitation chances increase this weekend along with cooler temperatures && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Active weather from an oncoming low pressure system will continue to bring periods of precipitation over northern and central Nevada today through Monday. Today, chances for precipitation will come from the west and spread across northern Nevada and much of the western portions of central Nevada. The front is not expected to reach Northeastern Nye County and White Pine County until late this evening but some isolated showers may still push into the counties. Conditions across much of the western portions of the CWA are favorable for isolated or scattered thunderstorms with the chance for some to become severe thunderstorms this afternoon. This evening, storms are expected to be ongoing for rain showers overnight with lingering chances for thunderstorms remaining across Northwestern Nye and Lander Counties before midnight. Due to the warmer temperatures in the 70s today, the precipitation is expected to be rain as snow levels remain above 9000 feet. Overnight, snow levels begin to drop as cooler air moves in, but remain above 7000 feet keeping snow chances in the mountains. Strong gusty southerly winds across central Nevada with speeds up to 20-30 mph, gusts 45 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for N. Nye, southern Eureka and Lander, and White Pine Counties until 9 pm this evening. Tomorrow, the low pressure that is bringing in the active weather is slowly pushing eastward as an upper ridge east of the rockies situates over the Midwest. The system will still bring in periods of precipitation across the entire CWA and chance for more active thunderstorms in the afternoon being more prevalent across Lander, Eureka, and Elko Counties. Strong gusty southerly winds expected across central Nevada with speeds of up to 15-25 mph, gusts as high as 35-40 mph. Cooler air will help temperatures reach to near normal with highs in the upper 50s to 60s. This will keep much of the precipitation to fall as rain as snow levels remain above 7000 feet, allowing more much needed mountain snow. Tonight, cooler temperatures behind the front will bring snow levels down to below 6000 feet, bringing snow accumulations to the higher passes and summits seeing up to 0.5 inches with a small chance of reaching the valleys. Sunday, the low pressure is expected to begin to cross over northern Nevada. Chances for active weather remain across the CWA with possible chances for more active thunderstorms in central Nevada. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s will keep snow levels around 6000 feet, making precipitation fall as valley rain with mountain snow. Breezy southerly winds with speeds up to 15-20 mph, gusts as high as 35 mph across eastern Nevada. Overnight, temperatures expected to drop into the 20s, dropping snow levels to around 5000 feet across the region, giving chances of snow reaching the valleys up to 0.5 inches with higher passes and summits seeing up to 1-2 inches. By Monday morning, snow is still expected to reach into the valleys, then becoming rain/snow mix as temperatures begin to warm with snow levels rising back to 6000 feet. By the afternoon, chances for precipitation begin to dissipate as the system weakens and pushes eastward out of Nevada. Tuesday and Wednesday, quiet weather conditions return over the state with warmer temperatures returning as near zonal flow moves over Nevada. This calming weather is expected to be short lived however as models are showing better agreement that another low pressure system to the northwest will clip northern Nevada on Thursday, bringing in much cooler temperatures to below normal as well as increasing chances for more precipitation in northern Nevada. By Friday, models showing the position of the low trough pushing east but keeping cooler air aloft from a northwesterly flow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of unseasonably warm temperatures today. High confidence of active weather this afternoon for precipitation and some thunderstorms. Moderate confidence of thunderstorms becoming severe this afternoon. High confidence active ongoing weather lasting through Monday with increasing precipitation chances. High confidence of strong gusty winds in central Nevada this afternoon and tomorrow. High confidence of cooler temperatures dropping below normal over the weekend. Low confidence of valley snow Saturday night, moderate confidence Sunday night. Low confidence of active weather Thursday. No changes to the grids at this time. && .AVIATION... Active weather pattern today with chances for some active thunderstorms in the region. VCSH conditions at all northern terminals with chances of -RA and possible -TSRA across all northern terminals today and into the afternoon. VFR conditions dominant across all the terminals, however MVFR or lower conditions possible from passing storms. This evening, weather patterns shift with possible -RA and -TSRA conditions reaching towards KTPH but chances remain low so will be out of the TAFs at this time. Winds at the northern terminals expected to be below 10 kts, however passing thunderstorms may cause VRB winds at 10-20 kts, gusts up to 40 kts. For KTPH and KELY, active weather is not expected today with slight chance of VCSH this evening, however strong southerly gusty winds up to 15-20 kts, gusts as highs as 30-35 kts. A Wind Advisory is out over the central terminals until 9 pm tonight. Weather is expected to dissipate overnight, however there may still be some linger VCSH or -RA conditions over the terminals. More active weather expected to continue into tomorrow. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ035-037-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97