720 FXUS66 KSEW 302111 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 211 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low off the coast will continue to keep temperatures seasonable this weekend, with slight chances for showers through Sunday and perhaps a thunderstorm over the North Cascades late Sunday night. Upper level ridging returns Monday, bringing another round of hot and dry conditions with well above normal temperatures are expected by mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Stratus has already burned away across the northern interior where clear skies prevail, farther south, mid and high level clouds as well as a few light showers across southwestern WA is keeping the low stratus deck in place, though it is starting to break away across the Seattle metro. With little change in the overall pattern for Sunday, expect a similar day with mostly cloudy skies through much of the morning and early afternoon, with perhaps a few isolated showers in the morning. Highs will be in the mid 90s to near 80, and 60s and 70s along the coast. Lows in the 50s to near 60 in the metro. The upper level low, while not moving much, will approach just east enough by Sunday, which will place a weak jet streak over the area; the left-exit region being over the northern Cascades. Elevated instability will be present, but the surface will be well-capped. This could be enough lift to see a few isolated thunderstorms, though moisture content is low. Confidence is also fairly low, but have added a 15% chance for isolated thunderstorms across the Cascades late Sunday night into Monday morning. Going into next week, a building upper level ridge across the intermountain west will push the upper low back to the west/northwest, sending it up into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow for temperatures to start to warm up through the first half of the week. Monday looks to be around 80 through the lowlands with 70s along the coast as the day starts cloudy then clears for the afternoon. Less clouds to start Tuesday should allow for highs to reach into the mid 80s, with 90s starting to show up in the Cascade valleys. Low temperatures will start to climb, with lows around 60 across the metro and low to mid 60s for some of the Cascade valleys. Here is when we will start to see areas of Moderate (Orange) HeatRisk, with Major (Red) HeatRisk for the Cascade valleys. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...As the upper level low retrogrades to the northwest, it may be able to pull in a weak shortwave trough up form northern California across the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Will have to watch closely to see how this pattern progresses. Going into Thursday and Friday is when we start to see the ridge break down. Currently, Wednesday and Thursday look to be the warmest days, with more uncertainty as to how fast we cool off Friday into next weekend but a return to more seasonable temperatures is expected. Highs Wednesday and Thursday look to be in the 80s to low 90s through much of the interior, and approaching 100 in the Cascade valleys. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with mid to upper 60s possible in the Cascades and valleys as the flow looks to turn light offshore overnight. This will correspond to widespread Moderate HeatRisk, including the mountains, with Major HeatRisk in the valleys through Thursday. 62 && .AVIATION...Southerly flow aloft will increase into Sunday as an upper low offshore drifts towards the Pacific Northwest coast. Stratus continues to lift across the interior this afternoon, with areas of lingering MVFR cigs. Cigs will continue to improve into this evening with mid to high clouds. Another round of lower stratus will spread inland tonight and into the interior Sunday morning. LIFR/IFR for the coast, with areas of MVFR/IFR for the interior. Cigs will then improve Sunday afternoon to VFR conditions. Although dry conditions are expected, will need to monitor any showers that may develop early Sunday, mainly north of KSEA. Probabilities for thunder on Sunday remain less than 10% for the interior. W/NW winds this afternoon will become light tonight. KSEA...VFR conditions into tonight with mid and high clouds. Stratus slides inland early Sunday morning. There is approximately a 20 to 25% chance of IFR cigs between 13 to 18z Sunday. Any stratus will lift by midday Sunday to VFR cigs. Will need to monitor any shower development late tonight into early Sunday morning, but dry conditions expected at this time. N/NW winds at 5 to 9 kts will continue into tonight with lighter winds Sunday morning. JD && .MARINE...An onshore flow pattern will continue into next week. Onshore flow will vary in intensity, with westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening. There is approximately a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory wind gusts in the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening, and have held off on any SCA given the limited confidence. Higher confidence in SCA wind gusts Sunday evening, and as a result have issued a SCA for the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca during this period. Onshore flow will then continue into midweek. Although primarily dry conditions are expected, there is less than a 10% chance of thunderstorms into Sunday as well. Seas of 2 to 4 feet for the Coastal Waters through Tuesday will build to 4 to 6 feet by midweek. JD && .FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of dry thunderstorms is forecast for the north Cascades tomorrow evening, with an outside chance of lingering into Monday. A low pressure system parked offshore will send a weak impulse into the area, steepening the lapse rates and offering some ascent, although weak. There is no significant source of moisture, increasing concern over dry lightning strikes. Any storms that happen to develop will be capable of gusty and erratic winds as a by-product of the steep lapse rates and downdraft CAPE, as well as lightning on dry fuels. The probabilities are capped at 10-15%. Later this week, temperatures will be climbing and humidity dropping off, with poor overnight recoveries. Temperatures will be well into the upper 80s to mid 90s, with near 100 degrees in the Cascade valleys as periods of light offshore flow develop during the day. Elevated concerns for hot, dry and unstable conditions will persist through much of the mid to late week period. 21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

296 FXUS66 KPQR 302226 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 326 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A cutoff low lingering offshore of northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington will bring continued seasonable temperatures through Labor Day Weekend with morning incursions of marine clouds giving way to breaks of afternoon sun. Building high pressure will yield a warming trend early in the week, with the potential for high temperatures reaching the 90s and Moderate to Major HeatRisk Tuesday through at least Thursday across inland areas. Increasing chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms midweek. && .SHORT TERM...Saturday Afternoon through Monday...Satellite imagery Saturday afternoon depicts two classic low pressure systems, one just west of the Oregon/Washington coast and one farther southwest in the Pacific, centered around 40N 155W. The low pressure system just to the west of our coast will remain fairly stationary through Monday, only moving slightly to the northwest. Today it is closest to the NW Oregon and SW Washington coast, and it is producing showers over the coastal waters that are pushing just along the coast. Most of these showers are drying and becoming virga as soon as they reach land, though a few observation stations have reported a trace to 0.01 inch of rain throughout the day. Mid to upper level clouds are streaming across much of the region, with along with the cooler air funneled into the region from the upper low are helping to keep temperatures on the cooler side. Observed temperatures as of 3 PM are only in the upper 60s for the SW Washington lowlands, mid 70s north of Salem, and upper 70s to low 80s south of Salem where there is little to no cloud cover. Conditions tomorrow into Monday will be similar with just less widespread cloud cover, leading to slightly warmer temperatures each day. Marine stratus formation is likely each night into the morning hours, with stratus intrusion possible through Coast Range gaps each morning. -HEC .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...The forecast becomes more uncertain in the long term. Ensembles indicate the low pressure system off of the coast will begin retrograding on Tuesday, with high pressure currently over the Great Basin beginning to move west into Oregon and Washington. This will allow temperatures to warm a bit on Tuesday into the upper 80s to low 90s. However, ensembles are in good agreement of a compact closed low moving into central California late Monday/early Tuesday, then moving north through California into Oregon sometime after that. The uncertainty now comes into play in the timing of when the low will move into Oregon as well as the strength of it, both of which could impact how far west the high pressure can spread into the area and therefore whether temperatures continue warming into midweek or remain steady. Additionally, this low will produce shower and thunderstorm chances over Oregon, but due to the previously mentioned uncertainty, that introduces uncertainty in location and timing of shower and thunderstorm chances. If showers/thunderstorms form, this would produce cloud cover that could also impact the potential for warming temperatures. The 13z NBM run has toned down on the warming temperatures, with deterministic highs remaining in the low 90s for Wednesday and Thursday. Probabilities for reaching 95 degrees for both days have also decreased a bit to 40-55% for inland valleys. Overnight temperature forecast still remains on the slightly warmer side with many inland locations forecast to remain above 60 degrees. There is still widespread Moderate HeatRisk for inland areas for Tuesday through Thursday, but Major HeatRisk is now more limited to the Portland and Salem urban areas and the Columbia River Gorge. These temperatures could still impact vulnerable populations, especially those spending extended time outdoors or those without adequate air conditioning. By Friday, temperatures are expected to begin a downward trend into the 80s, though there`s still a 10-25% chance temperatures could be as warm as 95 degrees. -HEC && .AVIATION...A weak upper low offshore the Washington and Oregon coast will support a deepening marine layer tonight and return MVFR- IFR stratus to the coast and interior valleys tonight into Sunday morning. Overnight stratus is expected to have more widespread interior coverage Sunday morning compared to what was observed Saturday morning. The probabilities for ceilings below 1000 ft along the coast exceed 50% around 06z Sunday and increase to 70% 11z Sunday. The probability for ceilings below 1500 feet exceeds 30% in the Willamette Valley at 14z Sunday with clearing shortly after 19z Sunday. PDX AND APPROACHES...There is a 30-40% probability of MVFR ceilings returning to the area 13z Sunday. Any stratus that forms should clear to VFR around 20z Sunday. Light winds of 5 kt or less will prevail.~TJ && .MARINE...Low pressure will maintain light winds across the coastal waters through Monday. High pressure builds Tuesday and Wednesday for increasing north winds. The winds will be strongest in the afternoons and evenings, especially to the south where the surface pressure gradient will be the strongest. The north wind gusts will flirt with small craft conditions Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons where there is a 40% chance of wind gusts greater than 20 kt. Seas will be below 4 ft through Monday, with an increase in wind waves building seas to 5-6 ft Tuesday through Thursday.~TJ && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

327 FXUS66 KMFR 302148 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 248 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .DISCUSSION...A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the marine waters this afternoon, and this is associated with a cut off upper level low that will linger just offshore through the weekend. While the radar is showing some decent returns with this front over the waters, area webcams show this is most likely to be virga and the radar beam height is coinciding with the virga showers. Surface observations to the north haven`t recorded any precipitation either and cloud bases are pretty high for any meaningful precipitation. This front is expected to remain just offshore and continue to weaken through the evening as it moves northward, so it will largely go unnoticed for inland areas. Afternoon temperatures today will be quite similar those of yesterday, and there will be a slight uptick in afternoon breezes today. High temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler for Sunday and dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. The flow will turn more southerly as low pressure offshore drifts northward and this could allow enough moisture and instability to slip into eastern portions of the region late Sunday into Monday. We don`t expect much to amount from this increase in moisture/instability since there won`t be an appreciable forcing mechanism, but the potential for cumulus buildups and a stray shower will remain present for Sunday and Monday afternoons. Tuesday through Thursday will be the time period worth watching for two reasons: thunderstorm potential and heat. First, the thunderstorms...models remain consistent in showing a weak low that takes on a negative tilt as it moves northward through the region Tuesday through Thursday, bringing increasing moisture and instability. We`ve ventured away from the NBM to add a slight chance of thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons/evenings, focused in the typical areas along and east of the Cascades as well as for portions of western Siskiyou County. There is some question as to whether storms develop west of the Cascades on Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance the potential for storms as far west as the Illinois Valley, but not so much north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. This is still 4-5 days out, so details are likely to change once this time frame is covered by the models that help us hone in on timing and location. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge amplifies over the intermountain west as energy dives southward into the mid-west. As this ridge amplifies, the low pressure offshore this weekend, gets pushed northwestward (retrogrades) into the Gulf of Alaska. We`ll see a warming trend beginning Monday, but models show the ridge axis being centered over the West Coast States by mid-week, which will result in another warm up across the region for the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Upper 90s into the triple digits for the West Side (low 90s/upper 80s for East Side) is expected for this warm up. While it seems fairly certain that it`ll be hot again for mid-week next week, with the aforementioned low drifting around during the same time, cloud cover could end up being a mitigating factor in the extent of the heat. Additionally, smoke from area wildfires could also play into how warm temperatures get. HeatRisk values are indicating a moderate to locally major risk for heat related illnesses Tuesday through Thursday, primarily for the valleys west of the Cascades, so we`ll be evaluating the need for any heat related headlines over the coming shifts. The ridge starts to break down and shift eastward on Friday, so temperatures are expected to trend cooler but still remain above normal for early September. Smoke impacts...With a general southwest to southerly flow over the region through much of the forecast period, the bulk of the smoke impacts from the Emigrant fire should remain north of the forecast area. Latest HRRR Smoke model maintains the general pattern of higher smoke concentrations moving into Klamath County in the late evening as northerly winds bring smoke from the Emigrant fire. Improvement in the afternoons is expected as the typical diurnal winds increase and help to clear out the air. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued a Air Quality Alert for Klamath County that is in effect through at least Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, smoke impacts from the Dillon fire in western Siskiyou County should remain confined to western Siskiyou County, with higher smoke concentrations settling in the Scott/Shasta/Klamath River Valleys at night, then clearing out with the increase in afternoon winds as well. Latest observations in the Rogue Valley show an increase in smoke over the last hour or so. This appears to be smoke from the Dillon Fire drifting into the Illinois/Applegate Valleys and then being carried eastward into the Rogue Valley with the increase in west to northwesterly winds this afternoon. Model guidance does show the higher smoke concentrations moving out of the Rogue Valley after 5pm this evening, but a similar pattern is likely again tomorrow. With no significant rainfall expected through the forecast period, expect periods of hazy conditions and degraded air quality for the foreseeable future. /BR-y && .AVIATION...30/18Z TAFs...Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving onshore over coastal areas of southern Oregon. Ceilings should remain VFR along the coast and just offshore. Marine stratus is likely to form early this evening (2-4z) with IFR ceilings that could last until the end of the TAF period, although ceilings could improve to MVFR towards 18z tomorrow. Inland, VFR conditions will last through the TAF period. The exception will be in eastern Douglas county where smoke will result in MVFR visibilities until 21-22z at which point it should mix out and dissipate. Meanwhile smoke from the Emigrant Fire could drift south into portions of northern Klamath County this evening and tonight, but it`s not expected to result in reduction in visibility at the Klamath Falls airfield. -Petrucelli && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Saturday, August 30, 2025...Relatively light south winds and low seas will persist through Sunday morning. Winds turn northerly Sunday and increase some as a weak thermal trough develops. North winds increase further Sunday night into Monday, reaching advisory level criteria south of Cape Blanco. Seas also steepen in response, with low end advisory level conditions expected by late Monday morning. These conditions are likely to persist through at least mid-week, with winds easing below advisory levels for the latter half of the week. /BR-y && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, August 29, 2025...Overall fire concerns are low through Monday with not much variation in the weather. The latest satellite image shows some cumulus build ups over the higher terrain in portions of Fire zones 285, 624 and 625. Meanwhile a weak frontal boundary associated with the the upper low off the northwest Oregon coast will bring some high and mid level clouds to the coast, north of Cape Blanco and northwest Douglas county. Smoke for the Emigrant Fire is being carried north to northeast of our area. However, some of the guidance shows some of that smoke shifting south into northern Fire zone 624 late this afternoon and evening. This could be due to a combination of the typical diurnal shift in the winds from west to northwest late in the afternoon and evening and lowering inversion which will allow the smoke to settle in to the above mentioned areas. The theme through the start of next week will be continued dry weather with the typical mid to late afternoon and early evening breezes in the Rogue Valley, Umpqua Basin, Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. Even though relative humidity will be on the low end in these areas, the ind component is not sufficient enough for critical conditions to be met. The one exception could be in the Shasta Valley this afternoon and early this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening where there could be brief periods in which critical conditions could be met. This will continued be highlighted in the fire weather forecast. Like today, a building pressure gradient will result in breezy winds over the usual suspects (Rogue, Umpqua Basin, Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades). With the drying humidities, these winds will push conditions toward critical values for a few hours each afternoon, particularly in the southern Shasta Valley and along the ridges on Sunday. There`s good agreement the upper low will move little and actually drift north off the Washington coast Sunday into the start of next week as an upper ridge axis builds north east of our area. Temperatures are not expected to vary much day to day and will remain above normal. We`ll still have to deal with the typical afternoon and early evening breezes and low relative humidity for the same areas mentioned above with brief periods of near or critical conditions. While we may approach headline thresholds, we do not expect to reach critical conditions at this time. Thunderstorm concerns remain low Monday, with continued dry weather. However, afternoon temperatures will begins to heat up as upper ridging builds towards the area as the upper low continues to move north west of Vancouver Island. If there`s a window in which thunderstorms could be an issue, it will be Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and early evening as weak upper low enters the picture and drifts north towards our area. Tuesday the position of the upper low is such that it could result in at least isolated thunderstorms for portions of northern California, and Cascades east. Conditions could be favorable for nocturnal storms Tuesday night. However, there is more evidence that does not support storms Tuesday night. We`ll continue to monitor this. Wednesday, the operational models differ with the progression of the upper low. The ECMWF has the low positioned in northern California as it becomes cut off from the main flow. The GFS also hints at the low becoming cut off from the main flow, but progresses the upper low through our area by Wednesday afternoon which would put the best chance for storms north of our forecast area. In contrast the ECMWF solution would at least maintain the chance for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Gut feeling is the slower progression of the low makes more sense given both models show the upper low becoming cut off. If the upper low does end up progressing slower, then we could be dealing with the potential for nocturnal storms Wednesday night, but much will depend on the timing and location of the upper low. If nothing else, another thing we may have to consider, but there`s still plenty of time to address this. Isolated storms could still be a part of the equation Thursday afternoon and evening, but right now there`s nothing in the forecast and much will depend on the track of the upper low. It`s also worth noting, the upper ridge will remain in place Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures around the triple digit mark for the interior westside valleys, and upper 80s to low 90s east of the Cascades. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$

376 FXUS66 KEKA 302118 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 218 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Near seasonal average temperatures will continue through the weekend. A warming trend will increase the HeatRisk and fire weather threat as low RH and hot temperatures build across the interior on Monday and then peak on Tuesday. The coast is expected to see night and morning clouds with some afternoon clearing most days. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday in the interior. && .DISCUSSION...The skies are plenty of sunshine across Northwest California this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures are running 2 to 5 degrees cooler across the northern portion of the forecast area compared with yesterday`s reading, while few degrees warmer across interior Mendocino and Lake counties. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected to developed through the channeled terrain, while breezy north winds over the coastal headlands. Southwesterly winds aloft will continue to push the smoke from the active wildfires in Siskiyou and Trinity counties toward northeast out of the area through the weekend. The exception will be areas north of the Peak Fire between Trinity Lake and Granite Peak. There will likely be local terrain effects that will continue to bring smoke to the valleys in all directions near the fires. This will be especially true if the fire is burning below the inversion and the smoke is trapped. For details visit weather.gov/eka and check out the area smoke forecast on the bottom of the main page. For the Labor Day (Monday), the high pressure begin to builds north into the area through Tuesday. Interior heat will build on Monday and then peak on Tuesday. High temperatures in the hottest valleys are expected to range from 95 to 105F degrees. Expect widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the interior. The heat will have impacts on some individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Coastal areas are expected to remain generally in the mid 60`s to low 70`s. A southerly reversal shortwave trough moving up the west side of the ridge Tuesday through Thursday. This is expected to draw some moisture up and bring the potential for thunderstorms over the interior. The challenge is in the details of the timing, location and how much moisture is available. The GFS has expanded the threat of thunderstorm across much the Trinity County and surrounding areas for late afternoon and evening on Tuesday, while the ECMWF limited the threat over the Sacramento Valley. Have to expanded the slight chance of thunderstorms in Trinity County for Tuesday. Coverage may be increase toward eastern Humboldt and eastern Del Norte with enough energy aloft and increasing PWAT values toward the coast, but will wait for more model runs to increase confidence. Wednesday through late in the week, the shortwave trough will continue to move northward with dry weather prevailing across the area. Clusters and operational deterministic models are trending dry for Wednesday, with drier air-mass moving over the area. Ensemble clusters are in pretty good agreement showing this pattern with around 70 percent of the members./ZVS && .AVIATION...Apart from brief LIFR impacts early this morning, all terminals remained VFR overnight. Remaining stratus has mostly moved offshore and scattered out late this morning. A trough moving through the Pacific northwest continues to support a weak marine inversion, but there are some hints of a shallow marine layer returning overnight. Offshore flow may complicate visibility impacts, but LIFR or IFR ceilings are likely if stratus does develop. UKI remains VFR today with breezy winds in the afternoon easing overnight. Smoke impacts are mostly limited to Siskiyou and northern Trinity Counties. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase in the lee of Cape Mendocino, with gusts up to 25-30 kts forecast near the Cape. Winds are lighter elsewhere, with gusts peaking at 5-15 kts this afternoon. Seas also remain mild, with combined seas of 1-2 ft observed on buoys. A small long-period southerly swell is filling in this morning and will persist trough the weekend. Higher seas of 4-5 ft are found south of Cape Mendocino, and these will slowly build as northerlies gradually increase. Stronger winds may reach nearshore Mendocino Sunday afternoon, with gusts peaking around 20-25 kts. By Sunday night into Monday, winds increase in the northern outer waters to 20-25 kts, but nearshore areas are likely to continue to see lighter winds. This general pattern continues into mid next week. JB && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions due to low RH and breezy westerly winds over the higher terrain in zones 277, 283 & 264 continue this weekend. Dry weather will continue through early next week, with low daytime RH mainly in the teens and poor to moderate overnight humidity recoveries in areas well away from the coast. Winds will generally be diurnally and terrain driven. However, a period of enhance afternoon winds with gusts to 25 mph is expected. A headline for elevated fire weather threat continue in the Fire Weather Forecast. Next week a warming and drying trend is expected with high temperatures forecasted to peak in the upper 90s to near 105 across the interior valleys on Tuesday. There is also a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly in Trinity county. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

769 FXUS66 KMTR 301948 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1248 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses through the middle of next week - Elevated fire weather concerns across the interior mountains into Monday with low RH and moderate onshore winds in the afternoons - Hazardous coastal conditions through Monday night due to long period southerly swell && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Sunny sky conditions prevail over the region this afternoon, with patches of stratus off of the North Bay coast. This is as high pressure to our east continues to build over the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread across the interior today with temperatures forecast to be in the 90s across and up to 105 degrees F in areas such as Bradley, Byron, Pinnacles National Park, and Lake Berryessa. A shallow marine layer and lack of offshore flow will keep conditions cooler near the coast and bays. These temperatures will be around 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Once again, breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon and evening before diminishing after sunset. Tonight, seeing less indication for stratus to return overnight with low temperatures dropping into the 50s to lower 60s (interior valleys). However, warmer and drier conditions will prevail above the shallow marine layer and only cool into the upper 60s to near 80 degrees F. With little change in the upper level pattern, similar conditions are expected on Sunday as today. Please see the FIRE WEATHER and BEACHES sections below for additional details. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) In the extended, we are keeping an eye on Tuesday for the possibility of high-based convection. At this time, the North Bay looks to be the main focus with MUCAPE values approaching 250-500 J/kg. However, the limiting factor may be the available moisture between 700-500 MB. We will be sure to keep a close eye on this as we move closer to Tuesday. From the previous forecaster: "The upper level ridging remains remarkably stable through the middle of the week, keeping Moderate HeatRisk in place and high temperatures close to the those seen today through Wednesday. Depending on how the forecast evolves, heat products may need to be issued as we go through the next couple of days. Towards the end of the 7-day forecast, the ridge doesn`t really go away, so much as it erodes, with temperatures gradually dropping closer to, or slightly below, the seasonal average. CPC outlooks show a lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages into the second week of September, but equal chances of temperature above or below seasonal averages into the second half of the month." && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 VFR through the TAF period. Winds increase into the afternoon, staying moderate for most areas but look to be breeze near the immediate coast and at SFO. These winds look to reduce into the night, becoming light for most areas. Winds look to build again to similar seeds for Sunday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light into the mid afternoon before breezier west winds arrive with gusts around 22 kts expected. These winds and gusts reduce into the early night, with gusts cutting off. Expect winds to become lighter into the late night through the mid afternoon on Sunday. West winds look to build again and become breezy into the mid afternoon on Sunday and last into that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds build into the afternoon becoming moderate to breezy around the Monterey Bay. Winds look to reduce in the evening, becoming light and variable at MRY, but staying light to moderate for SNS. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Breezy and gusty winds will continue through the weekend with gradually increasing wave heights. The gusty winds and choppy seas will create hazardous conditions across our coastal waters through the weekend into the beginning of the next work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The marine layer has compressed to between 250-500 feet in depth this morning and will likely remain that way into early next week. Thus, warm and dry conditions will continue above 500-1,000 feet as high pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft. Minimum relative humidity values will be as low as the teens with maximum values reaching into the 30% range in the highest elevations. Although we are not expecting a long duration wind event and offshore winds are not anticipated, breezy onshore winds will increase each afternoon resulting in elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain and far interior with gusts reaching 20-30 mph. From previous forecaster: "Energy release component (ERC) forecasts continue to show values above seasonal averages across most of the region through the next week, which corresponds to a higher risk of large fires starting and spreading through the week. One additional factor will enhance the fire weather concerns through the weekend, namely elevated human activity in the wildland areas as a result of the Labor Day holiday weekend." We are keeping a close eye on monsoon moisture wrapping around the high pressure over the Desert Southwest and approaching cut-off low from our southwest. On Tuesday, we are forecasting MUCAPE values to reach 250-500 J/kg across much of the North Bay. However, the limiting factor may be the available moisture between 700-500 MB. Thus, there is a non-zero chance for high-based convection on Tuesday. We will be sure to keep a close eye on this as we approach early next week. RGass/DialH && .BEACHES... Issued at 1244 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Long-period (15-18 seconds) south-southwest swell originating from previous Tropical Storm Juliette is currently impacting our coastline. This will continue to do so through Monday night, creating an elevated risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and rough surf. This will be especially so at southwest facing beaches including but not limited to Stinson Beach, Santa Cruz Boardwalk Beach and Twin Lakes Beach. The potential exposure to the dangers will be enhanced by the Labor Day holiday weekend as folks flock to the coast to escape the hot temperatures across the interior. RGass/Murdock && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ505-509- 529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass/DialH AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

547 FXUS66 KOTX 302116 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 216 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures next week, locally near 100, with Major to locally extreme HeatRisk. Record high temperatures for September possible for multiple locations. && .SYNOPSIS... A strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in this weekend. Hot temperatures return with the ridge that will extend through next week. High temperatures will climb back into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... ...HOT WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK NEXT WEEK... Labor Day Weekend: A ridge building over the US west coast has warmed temperatures into the high 80s and low 90s, which is ten degrees higher than normal for this time of year. The low pressure system sitting just off the PNW coast will meander eastward and into the area Sunday night. The lift from this low combined with warmer temperatures has the NBM showing 5-15 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades, with chances stretching as far east as Omak. Main impacts from these thunderstorms will be lightning induced fire starts, gusty outflow winds, and locally heavy rainfall rates. Most CAMs are showing this to be afternoon into evening and overnight convection. Sunday, temperatures will warm a bit further, and by Monday will warm more. Even before the ridge starts strengthening later in the week, these warming temperatures have the Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau, upper Columbia Basin, Spokane/Coeur d`Alene, and lower Garfield and Asotin county areas seeing widespread moderate to major Heat Risk. Given this, and the fact that this is a holiday weekend and a lot of people will be taking to outdoor activities, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas from 1pm PDT Sunday through 8pm PDT Thursday. Additionally, smoke from fires down south is moving its way northward into our area, which will result in haze throughout at least Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Thursday: The ridge starts building further over the Pacific Northwest, and the low pressure system will begin retrograding westward, allowing heights to build up even further. When these heights peak on Wednesday, they will be anomalously high for this time of year. With the subsequent increase in 850mb temperatures, widespread Major to locally Extreme Heat Risk will be seen throughout much of the area. Temperatures are projected to get into the high 90s, with some lower valley areas getting into the triple digits by Tuesday and continuing through Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the hottest days of this warmup. NBM probabilities for temperatures reaching 100 degrees currently sit at over 50 percent for a large part of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. For the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area, probabilities of hitting triple digits sit at 70 percent and above. For Wednesday, these chances decrease to 45 percent and above, but are still quite high for this time of year. As these forecasted highs stand, some places could see monthly records broken for September. Smoke models show a good chance of haze remaining through the week, introducing the possibility of a decline in air quality during this extended late summer season heat wave. There is a very good chance that areas will get added to the Heat Advisory in the coming days as things warm further, with some areas possibly getting upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning, especially places that are anticipated to see Extreme Heat Risk, such as Wenatchee. With Major Heat Risk, and temperatures being this high for an extended amount of time, almost everyone without access to adequate hydration and cooling will be at risk of heat-related illnesses. As temperatures warm, relative humidity will drop. By Tuesday, values will drop into the low teens. With high lapse rates at 8 degC/km and some local 9 degC/km, all signs are pointing to a hot, dry and unstable atmosphere for fire weather, which could lead to increased fire activity. We will keep a close eye on this as things progress to see if a need arises for any fire weather headlines. Friday through Sunday: Unfortunately, many long range models are still showing temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s Friday through next weekend. Cluster analysis is very agreeable on anomalously high heights staying over the area Friday and Saturday. Heat Risk values on Friday still indicate widespread Moderate to locally Major Heat Risk, which could lead to an extension in any heat products should temperatures warm further or Heat Risk rises to Moderate for more areas. On Sunday, agreement splits, with half of the clusters favoring continued warm conditions and half the clusters favoring a cooldown with the possibility of some rain. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Haze from fires in the south will move into the area around 22Z, first impacting TAF sites GEG/SFF. Around 03Z, it looks to move into COE, and then around 08Z, begins impacting MWH/PUW/LWS. Confidence in smoke impacting EAT is lower and so a tempo group was used instead. Smoke will continue impacting all TAF sites but EAT through the end of this TAF period and into the next TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at the TAF sites. High confidence in smoke resulting in haze for GEG/SFF/COE/MWH/LWS/PUW beginning at varying times but going through the end of the TAF period. Low to moderate confidence in haze at EAT. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 97 64 97 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 62 97 64 97 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 61 95 60 96 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 68 102 68 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 95 54 96 55 99 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 92 59 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 64 94 67 96 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 64 96 63 95 63 100 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 68 95 70 94 70 100 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Omak 64 97 67 97 67 101 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Lewiston Area. Air Quality Alert until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

127 FXUS66 KPDT 302025 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 125 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .DISCUSSION...A relatively complex synoptic pattern is setting up for the Pacific Northwest for the next week. Satellite imagery currently shows a broad low pressure system circulating just off the coast. Models have this low meandering towards the Olympic Peninsula before retrograding during the week, leaving our forecast area caught between two deep troughs. A quasi-ridge pattern results, which will cause a distinct warm-up through the midweek. So long as this offshore low remains in our area of influence, however, expect mild gap flows and persistent chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over at least the next several days. Currently, radar shows some light shower and storm activity developing across Union and Wallowa County. CAMs are not too bullish on coverage this afternoon and evening, likely due to the low shear and subsidence aloft as weak ridging forms ahead of this offshore low, but the ingredients still remain for at least isolated activity for the area. Winds remain relatively light, however gap flows are picking up above guidance for The Dalles this afternoon, suggesting a stronger cross-Cascade gradient than what models are picking up on (which makes sense. There is a low offshore after all). Expect mild breezes downslope of the Cascades this afternoon as well as tomorrow, combining with low RHs to make for elevated fire weather concerns. Don`t think winds will be strong nor widespread enough to warrant any headlines, but active incidents (like the Flat Fire) will certainly be affected by these conditions. Favorable ascent then shifts to the central Washington Cascades for tomorrow, albeit only enough to support slight (15-20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms. Focus then shifts to the building heat beyond Labor Day, but before then, this low looks to circulate a secondary trough from SoCal into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models aren`t depicting this system too cleanly as of yet, but will certainly be something to keep an eye on as the days progress. By then, the heat will really start ramping up, with decent probabilities (50-60%) for the lower Columbia Basin to see high temps eclipse 100 degrees, which would flirt with daily records given the time of year. Evans/74 && .AVIATION...18z TAFs (Previous Discussion)...Expecting primarily VFR conditions with light, terrain-driven winds less than 12 kts and mid- level cigs slowly building over the course of the period, becoming sct-bkn 10-15 kft by the evening. Areas of smoke and haze will obscure the horizon at some sites, while MVFR conditions may occur (40-50%) at times this morning at BDN/RDM due to smoke from area wildfires. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 63 94 61 94 / 0 0 10 0 ALW 68 97 68 97 / 0 0 10 0 PSC 62 97 62 96 / 0 0 10 0 YKM 63 95 63 95 / 10 10 10 0 HRI 62 96 63 96 / 0 0 10 0 ELN 58 94 60 93 / 10 10 20 0 RDM 51 92 50 93 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 60 94 60 96 / 10 0 0 0 GCD 61 95 60 97 / 0 0 10 0 DLS 63 92 63 94 / 10 0 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74

596 FXUS65 KREV 301917 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1217 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * There are low chances for showers and storms this afternoon in Mono and Mineral counties. Otherwise, temperatures start to increase this weekend. * Areas of smoke and haze may locally impact visibility and air quality the next several days due to fires west of the crest and in northern Washoe County. * Thunderstorm chances return for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of this writing, some cumulus clouds are starting to bubble up along the higher terrain of Mono, Mineral, and Alpine counties. Model soundings show about 0.5 inches of PWAT today, providing just enough moisture, combined with the instability from daytime heating, to get some isolated showers and thunderstorms today (10-15% chance). However, this will be localized to Mono and Mineral counties, with some showers possibly creeping into the south of the Tahoe Basin. Storm chances will be similar in probability and areal coverage Sunday. As the weekend progresses, a high pressure starts to build over southern Utah and northern Arizona. As this strengthens, afternoon high temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid 90s for valley locations and mid 80s for Sierra communities through early next week. As of now, Monday looks to be the warmest day in the next week. A shortwave low pressure off the coast of California throws some uncertainty into the forecast, starting Tuesday. The aforementioned high pressure will continue to build over the Four Corners, helping to shuttle in monsoonal moisture. However, we`re not expecting nearly as much moisture as we had earlier this week; models are putting us at around 0.5-0.7 inches of PWAT. Due to the increase in moisture, we can expect widespread chances (20-40%) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. However, as that low pressure tracks inland, and possibly northward, it becomes negatively tilted. Model soundings are showing inverted-V profiles, which hints at the possibility for dry thunderstorms. Additionally, any storms that do develop will be fast-moving, due to the jet associated with the inverted trough. Thus, concerns for fire weather increase. The wrench in this whole thought process, though, is the increase in moisture from the high pressure. TLDR, storm chances increase Tuesday across much of the area and, as of now, will be more hybrid in nature. This will bring the risk for localized heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer. -Giralte && .AVIATION... * Smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire may bring periods of visibility reduction at KMMH. The Buffalo Fire in northern Washoe County may also bring visibility reductions to portions of western NV. Any other restrictions to visibility will be primarily slantwise due to haze aloft. * Drier conditions for the weekend, with a 10-15% chance for a stray storm to form in Mono/Mineral Counties, impacting KMMH. Storm chances expand once again next week. -Giralte/McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

751 FXUS66 KSTO 302049 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 149 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures persist through the holiday weekend with a pattern shift then expected to take hold moving into mid next week. Primarily Moderate HeatRisk expected through Monday, with some areas of Major HeatRisk in the Valley. An approaching weather system will bring increasing thunderstorm chances to the region Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures trend more seasonable form midweek onward. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Today - Monday: - Above normal temperatures expected with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the Valley. - Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 100F: 40-70% - Dry weather persists with daytime humidity into the teens to low 20s. * Tuesday - Wednesday: - Weather system tracks northward along the California coast into the middle of the week, bringing a gradual cool down and the return of periodically breezy onshore winds. - Slight (10-20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms as the system moves through. - Some uncertainty in the location of potential thunderstorm development, although highest chances at this time are expected across the mountains. * End of the Week: - Broad troughing aloft expected to remain in place with slight variations in location and orientation. - Seasonable temperatures anticipated across interior NorCal as breezy onshore flow persists. .Changes from previous forecast... - Increasing potential for thunderstorm activity early to mid next week, although moderate uncertainty in the location of potential thunderstorm development at this time. - Warmest temperatures of the next several days now trending toward Sunday and Labor Day for much of the region. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and clear skies are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be generally 10kt or less. Cumulus build-ups over the Sierra crest possible through the afternoon. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

290 FXUS65 KMSO 302010 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 210 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming and drying trend into next week, potential heat impacts by early next week Even though a ridge of high pressure is building over the region today a very subtle feature is causing a few showers and thunderstorms over northeast Oregon and central Idaho. These storms could impact the southwestern portion of Idaho county around Riggins, Pinehurst and Warren this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the biggest concern due to the dry low levels. The ridge will steadily strengthen Sunday into Monday causing hot and dry conditions across the Northern Rockies. The lower valleys of north central Idaho will once again be dealing with concerns of heat risk since the days will be well above 100 degrees but the minimums will struggle to drop below 70s. The biggest concern for the Orofino to Riggins areas will be Monday through at least Tuesday, but this heat risk could linger for a few more days. The smoke from regional fires could limit temperatures from reaching their full potential so the situation will continued to be monitored. The models are still showing the ridge shifting to the west by mid week. This movement of the ridge will allow the winds to become more northeasterly and bring slightly cooler temperatures across western Montana. && .AVIATION...Fair flying conditions are expected at the terminals for the next 24 hrs. The terminals will encounter some northwesterly winds until 31/03z. Smoke from regional fires will continue to create hazy conditions throughout the forecast period. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

652 FXUS65 KBOI 302023 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 223 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A strong ridge continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and will remain in place through the holiday weekend. This will maintain a warming and drying trend, with the warmest temperatures expected on Sunday and Monday when highs in the lower valleys will reach the middle 90s. Thunderstorms have developed over the Wallowa Mountains this afternoon, with cumulus clouds noted over other higher terrain across the region. A few storms remain possible through early evening across Baker County and the West Central Mountains of Idaho. For Sunday and Monday, conditions appear generally stable enough to limit thunderstorm development. However, a few high resolution models are indicating slightly more favorable conditions for thunderstorms across Harney County on Sunday, although the overall chances remain too low at this time for mention in the forecast. Smoke from fires in central Oregon, which shifted north and east of the area earlier today, is expected to circulate back into the region on Sunday and linger into Monday under the clockwise flow around the ridge. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An interesting pattern will present itself in the long-term. By Tuesday, guidance is showing three upper-level lows off of the West Coast. Uncertainty is introduced into the forecast with how these lows will interact with each other and, therefore, how the pattern will evolve. However, there is generally good agreement of the smallest of the three lows embedding itself into the main southerly flow aloft as a shortwave and moving north across eastern Oregon. Given this, and a push of some monsoonal moisture, have opted to introduce a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms into eastern Oregon Tuesday evening. Chances of precipitation from Wednesday-Friday morning are generally under 15%. Model ensembles keep us in south/southwesterly flow aloft; but if we can get some added dynamics from shortwaves, precipitation chances may need to be increased in the days to come. If this is the case, the most likely areas would be in eastern Oregon and across higher terrain. By Friday, ensemble guidance shows troughing beginning to move onshore, this is allowing for a 10-20% chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms across eastern Oregon and higher terrain in Southwest Idaho. Temperatures through the long-term take on a general cooling trend. Temperature will begin at around 10 degrees above normal on Tuesday, before lowering to near normal by Saturday. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR. Haze aloft and periods of reduced visibility due to smoke. Isolated showers/thunder across the ID w- cntrl mountains and near KBKE. 10-15% chance of showers/thunder impacting KBKE and KMYL through Sun/00z. Surface winds: Variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft: Variable 10-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Smoke layers aloft. Surface winds: Variable 3-8, becoming SE 5-10 kt this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF

499 FXUS65 KLKN 301948 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1248 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1259 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 * Dry and fair weather this weekend * Thunderstorms return Tuesday, primarily across central Nevada && .UPDATE... Issued at 1248 PM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The current forecast remains on track at this time. No updates are needed. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fair weather this weekend under a few afternoon cumulus clouds and light winds as an upper level ridge begins to amplify over the western U.S. Skies will trend mostly clear during the overnights. Ridge continues to amplify early next week, and latest progs continue to indicate that atmospheric moisture will begin to creep north again and into the forecast area as the ridge amplifies. Diurnally driven thunderstorms with a mix of wet and dry storm modes are expected by Tuesday across central Nevada, persisting thru the remainder of the week. Daytime high temperatures will be in the 80s this afternoon with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Slight warming trend into Monday with daytime highs residing in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows will also warm a few degrees into Monday, residing mostly in the 50s by Monday night. Temperatures hold in this general range the reminder of the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru the weekend. Moderate amount of uncertainty acknowledged next week with regard to areal coverage of thunderstorms across central Nevada. Though, highly confident that the bulk of the activity will occur across central Nevada. && .AVIATION...Fair weather today with light winds 10KT or less. A few high based afternoon cumulus present and conditions will remain VFR thru the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Weather will be dry and fair this weekend under a few afternoon cumulus clouds as a ridge of high pressure begins to amplify over the western U.S. Minimum afternoon RH readings move into the teens this weekend. Afternoon prevailing winds remain generally light thru the weekend as well and down valley and downslope winds will be dominant overnight under mostly clear skies. Atmospheric moisture begins to creep north and back into the Great Basin early next week as the upper level ridge continues to amplify. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will return to central Nevada, beginning Tuesday, with activity expected to increase in areal coverage as the week progresses. Latest progs still maintaining adequate atmospheric moisture to produce a mix of wet and dry storm modes. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92