600 FXUS66 KSEW 051758 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 958 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure continues to remain over the region this week, maintaining unseasonably warm and dry conditions across western Washington. Expect a return to cooler and wet conditions this weekend, with snow levels falling to around 3000 to 4000 ft for the start of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Strong high pressure remains in control for more dry and mild weather. The main difference today is an increase is lowland fog, mainly in the interior. Most of the dense fog has dissipated this morning but could see localized patchy fog in the Southwest Interior. Otherwise, expect sunny conditions this afternoon with highs around 60. Will likely see similar conditions on Friday. Rain returns on Saturday as the ridge exits east and a front moves in from the west. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Western WA remains under moist southwest flow early next week for more lowland rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will lover to around 3000 ft Sunday night and Monday with accumulating snow expected in the mountains and passes. Heavy precipitation in the SW Olympics will keep the Skokomish River running high and close to minor flood stage. An upper low keeps the air mass cool and showery moving toward midweek. 33 && .AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will become more southerly tonight as an upper ridge remains in place over the interior West. VFR is expected most areas into this afternoon, though LIFR low clouds will be slow to clear across the Southwest Interior. Areas of LIFR fog and restricted surface visibility will reform once again tonight into Friday morning across the interior of Western Washington. KSEA...VFR into this evening. A return of LIFR fog in the vicinity of the terminal is likely again on Friday morning. Surface winds N/NE 7 to 10 knots today will back light southeasterly overnight then light southerly during the day on Friday. 27 && .MARINE...Increasing offshore flow today as a surface high over the interior interacts with broad low pressure offshore. A series of frontal systems will begin to reach the waters this weekend into early next week. Hazardous seas will continue over the coastal waters much of the foreseeable future. 27 && .HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend and early next week will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County with the river close to minor flood stage. Flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

064 FXUS66 KPQR 052154 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 154 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry and sunny weather over the region with chances for fog/frost overnight for most interior lowland valleys. Breezy easterly winds continue through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area through this afternoon, weakening tonight. Air stagnation concerns continue through Friday for portions of the Willamette Valley and southwest WA where there is little wind. The next frontal system arrives Saturday, returning widespread rain through Sunday. Rain turns into post-frontal showers early next week, with light snow showers returning to the Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday...High pressure continues over the Pacific Northwest, maintaining dry, warm, and sunny conditions through Friday. Temperatures are forecast the peak in the upper 50s to low 60s across most areas, while places like the southern Willamette Valley and the Lower Columbia/Cowlitz Valleys remain a bit cooler due to fog and stratus that lingered into the late morning. On the contrast, some locations along the coast and Cascade foothills may reach the mid to upper 60s. A strong inversion around 1000-2000 feet is resulting in warmer conditions for the Cascade foothills, while light easterly winds downsloping from the Coast Range are bringing warmer temps to the coast. Overall, these high temperatures are around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Offshore pressure gradients between Troutdale (KTTD) and The Dalles (KDLS) will maintain breezy easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge, surrounding terrain, and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro. The pressure gradient between KTTD- KDLS as of early Thursday afternoon is -8.6 mb, with guidance suggesting gradients of -6 to -8 mb continuing through this afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble high resolution guidance (HRRR/REFS) suggests pressure gradients will ease to around -3 to -5 mb after 5-7 PM this evening with winds weakening and frequent wind gusts falling below 40 mph. Wind Advisory for the eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro has been extended through 6 PM this evening. For areas away from the influence of the easterly Gorge winds, winds will generally remain light. Calm winds and clear skies across interior lowland valleys will support another night of foggy and/or frosty conditions. Air stagnation will also be a concern through Friday afternoon for parts of the Willamette Valley and southwest WA lowlands. The Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM Friday across the Southern Willamette Valley, East Central Willamette Valley, North and Central Oregon Cascade Foothills, North Clark County lowlands, and the Lower Columbia River/Cowlitz River Valleys. Based on soundings and model guidance, mixing heights in these locations are forecast below 2000 feet with transport winds around 5 kt or less. A notable pattern shift begins Saturday as an approaching Pacific frontal system pushes inland. Cloud cover will increase early Saturday, followed by a return of rain along the coast by late morning or early afternoon, then spreading inland through the evening. Mild temperatures from the initial warm frontal passage will keep snow levels above 6000-7000 feet, resulting in rain through the Cascade passes. Widespread rain continues Saturday night into Sunday as the trailing cold front moves through. Behind the cold front Sunday night through Tuesday, rain transitions into post-frontal showers and cooler air will filter into the area. This will bring snow levels down to 3000-4000 feet and finally return some snow showers at pass-level in the Cascades. This upcoming Cascade snow appears sub-advisory, as chances for 6 inches of snow or greater in a 48 hour period ending 4 PM Tuesday are only 5-10% through the passes. Uncertainty remains in the forecast heading into the middle of next week, but most ensemble members suggests relatively drier conditions with some continuing chances for showers. -10/12 && .AVIATION...Dry southerly flow aloft as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region through tonight. Expect widespread VFR conditions for the rest of today with some scattered high clouds clearing out by this evening. Another round of LIFR to IFR fog is likely (50-60% chance) across the southern and parts of the central Willamette Valley, after 06z and 12z Friday, respectively. Elsewhere chances for reduced vsbys due to mist or fog early Friday morning is lower, around 10-20%. A strong offshore pressure gradient through the Columbia River Gorge will maintain breezy east winds into the east Portland metro through this evening, with gusts up to 35 kt. The upper ridge weakens and shifts east on Friday bringing increasing clouds. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected with scattered high clouds. Southeast winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt expected at the terminal through early this evening, while east approaches will see stronger east winds with gusts up to 35 kt near KTTD. /DH && .MARINE...Light southeast winds become more southerly later today as a weak area of low pressure drifts north. Southerly winds around 10-15 kt gradually increase on Friday as a front approaches the waters by Saturday. There is around a 40-60% chance for maximum wind gusts to exceed 34 kt on Saturday, but chances for widespread gales remains low. Winds are expected to ease Saturday night into Sunday. A persistent southwest to westerly swell at around 13-15 seconds will maintain seas around 9 to 11 ft through the weekend. Seas likely build to around 11 to 13 ft on Saturday with the frontal passage. A more westerly swell arrives early next week with seas again around 9 to 11 ft. Will maintain the current Small Craft Advisory across all coastal waters including the Columbia River Bar through Friday afternoon. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for ORZ108- 115>118-123>125. Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for ORZ112. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for WAZ204-205. Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for WAZ207. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

480 FXUS66 KMFR 051123 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 323 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .DISCUSSION...Persistent upper ridging will continue to bring dry weather area wide today. Satellite imagery this morning is showing some low clouds/fog in the west side valleys, but these should dissipate by late morning. There are some high clouds out there as well, but overall, we expect sunshine and a mild afternoon with high temperatures nearing records in some locations. Here are today`s record highs and the year in which they were set -- Medford (70 in 1963), Roseburg (67 in 1941), North Bend (68 in 1926), Klamath Falls (59 in 1995), Mount Shasta City (66 in 2007), Montague (68 in 1995) and Alturas (64 in 2015). The upper ridge axis will be well to our east tonight into Friday and this will allow an offshore disturbance aloft to move toward southern California. Even so, this feature is very weak and lacks moisture for any precipitation up our way. PoPs over SW Oregon and NorCal remain less than 5% on Friday. Nearest precipitation with this system will be down in southern California, nearest the Sierra, and south of Tahoe. The air mass aloft cools slightly, but it will remain mild for this time of year. Another weak upper ridge will nose into the area Friday night into Saturday morning, with increasing onshore flow at the coast. This could result in a little light rain and/or drizzle (15-30% chance) out of any stratus that develops, but the real precipitation remains associated with a stronger upper trough offshore. We think most inland areas will stay dry again all day Saturday, though rain chances increase to ~40-50% along the coast during the afternoon. The cold front offshore will arrive at the coast Saturday night, and then move inland west of the Cascades during Sunday. It may take a good chunk of Sunday for steadiest rain to reach Medford. This is because models are showing a weak surface wave developing along the front that could hold it up a bit while bringing decent rain to the coast. Eventually, it will get a kick eastward from the upstream upper trough and will move east of the Cascades Sunday night. Best rain is likely in Medford Sunday evening. Overall, rain amounts of 1-2 inches seem like a good bet along the coast (perhaps a bit more in the Curry Coast range mountains). We aren`t expecting much more than nuisance ponding of water on roadways. 0.50-1.00 inch for most inland areas over to the Cascades and into western Siskiyou County, though slightly lower totals here in the Rogue Valley (0.25-0.50). East Side and NorCal (from Shasta Valley eastward) amounts will mostly vary from 0.10-0.25 of an inch, with slightly higher amounts over the mountains. Snow levels are likely to start out quite high around 6500-7000 feet, but will drop to around 3500-4000 feet by Monday morning (with precip ending). It should be noted that we expect a period of gusty south to southwest winds in advance of or with the front Sunday with the usual suspects (Shasta Valley and East Side) with the best chance at seeing wind gusts approach advisory levels (45 mph). Right now, flow appears a bit too southwesterly for much more than 40 mph peak wind gusts in the Shasta Valley, but could see 45 mph at Summer Lake. Snow amounts will be highest Sunday night in the Cascades (Highway 140 northward) where 2-6 inches are possible during the 12-hour period 10p-4a. This could make the Monday morning commute slippery over the mountains and also for portions of the East Side along Highway 140 and Highway 97 (something to be aware of given this long stretch of mild weather we`ve been in). Post-frontal showers could continue on the west slopes of the mountains and along the coast Monday, but things should gradually dry out again. Not much change in the guidance for next week. Models are still showing split flow Mon night-Wed, so while that will likely mean another disturbance moving through or nearby, it might also mean they`re far enough south/southwest or offshore just enough to not have significant impact, except at the coast or in NorCal where precip chances are highest. Models keep mostly chance PoPs (30-50%) in the forecast (higher ~60% along the coast), but this does not look like a large precip producer given the split flow pattern. After another mid week break, the next front could arrive Thu night/Friday. && .AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs...A similar story compared to 24 hours ago -- fog/low clouds will result in IFR/LIFR conditions in some valleys west of the Cascades, especially from the Illinois Valley to Grants Pass (K3S8) and northward along I-5 to the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg (KRBG). Areas of fog are also evident in the Camas Valley and the Coquille Valley near Coquille/Myrtle Point this morning. Fog is unlikely in Medford, though outlying areas could see some lower visibility. All lower conditions should become VFR by around 18-19Z. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Thursday, February 5, 2026...Steep west swell will persist today, then south winds and additional swell will increase through this weekend with the approach and arrival of a cold front. A front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this weekend.... && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

462 FXUS66 KEKA 050804 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1204 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues through Saturday. Unseasonably warm afternoons and chilly mornings are likely Thursday. Rain and high elevation snow likely returns to the area Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Another warm afternoon is expected today. While high temperatures may get close to daily records for the North Coast, offshore flow will be just weak enough to have those high temperatures fall just short of the records. Coastal areas could see temperatures in the upper 60s or even low 70s a little farther away from the direct coastline. Overnight temps are forecast to be chilly with lows in the 20s and 30s in the valleys and lower elevations with the higher elevations above a stable inversion remaining fairly warm over 50F in some spots. Agreement is growing on the high pressure/ridging pattern ending Friday. A deep, elongated trough is forecasted to move through the area. Increased cloud cover and a deeper marine layer will lead to more moderated temperatures over NW CA Friday and Saturday. A return of rain is forecasted to arrive sometime between Saturday night and Sunday midday. Generally, rainfall amounts are likely to be minor, but precipitation rates could briefly be moderate to locally heavy. NBM is showing around a 40 to 80% chance for over an inch of rain from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. The highest probabilities are focused more for the higher elevations in Humboldt, Trinity, and Del Norte counties. Mendocino and Lake counties show less confidence in rain with a 30-60% chance of rain over 0.5" and a 10-25% chance that there is no rain at all, especially for Lake County. Winds for this frontal system do not look to be very impactful, with only a 10-20% chance for southerly wind gusts greater than 30 mph for wind prone areas in Lake County. Snow levels are also likely to remain above 6,000 ft until Sunday night before dropping to ~4,000 ft Monday morning, bringing light snow to the highest passes on Highway 3 and Highway 36. Forecast uncertainty grows early to mid next week. Some ensemble members are showing a break in precipitation, while others are showing continued pulses of precipitation. That said, the forecast is fairly certain this change in weather will bring much colder temperatures, increased rainfall (which won`t be hard after all this dry weather), and mountain snowfall to the area. JB/DS && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all aerodromes at least through Thursday night. However, a period of visibility reduction with haze will be possible at KCEC and KACV in the afternoon due to the sea spray. Winds will continue to be light offshore flow, shifting to SSW early in the afternoon. There is the potential for a shallow marine layer developing along the coast late Thursday night into Friday as a cut-off low well offshore the California Coast track southward. This will bring increasing mid to high level clouds across NW California on Friday. /ZVS && .MARINE...A mid period westerly swell around 8 to 10 feet at 13 to 14 seconds continue building into this morning. A larger westerly swell with longer period near 17 seconds will build Thursday night into Friday, resulting in hazardous conditions to small craft through Friday night. Light to gentle winds are expected to shift to southerly this afternoon, before increase over the weekend in advance of a front, primarily on Sunday. /ZVS && .BEACH HAZARDS...A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday night due to a moderate risk of sneaker waves along areas beaches. A large swell is forecast to build into the coastal waters Thursday into Friday, with heights around 10-12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds. These high energy will bring a moderate risk of sneaker waves on Thursday, resulting in the potential deadly waves that unexpectedly surge much farther up the beach than previous waves, overtaking unaware beachgoers. Remember to never turn your back to the ocean, and to avoid steep beaches, jetties, outcroppings, and rocks during these events./ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455-470-475. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

669 FXUS66 KMTR 052214 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 214 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 - Above normal temperatures, though with a slight cooling through the weekend. - Hazardous beach conditions from swells through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches. - 10% (San Jose) to 40% (northern Sonoma county) chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday afternoon and evening. Best rain chances come Wednesday (50%). && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (This evening through Friday) h5 analysis shows an upper trough in the process of getting shed from the main upper low south of the Aleutians. This feature will become cut-off from the main upper flow and drift toward the Baja peninsula, remaining off shore of California. It has been another very mild and sunny early February day. The ridge has started to push southeast, though the thermal ridge is still close enough to Monterey and San Benito counties that Salinas and Monterey have gotten close to record highs for the day, while locations up around the Bay are a couple of degrees cooler than Wednesday. As the upper low pushes toward the CA coast tonight, we`ll continue to see the cirrus shield over southern Cal push north. As the upper low gets closer, we`ll add some mid level clouds to the mix as well through the night. The main impact from the clouds is we`re anticipating much less fog in the valleys than we have seen the past few nights, though if we end up with less cloud cover than anticipated, we still have the same general weather pattern we`ve had for the past several nights that has supported the valley fog, so less cloud cover will result in more fog. During the day on Friday, as the upper low gets to the west of LA, southeasterly flow across southern Cal will push slightly higher low level moisture north. The NBM continues to show some 15ish PoPs later on Friday in the higher terrain around Big Sur, though forecast soundings are stratus/drizzle soundings with a shallow (less than 1k feet) near-surface moisture layer, so we continue to keep the MTR area dry through Friday. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 123 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Biggest thing about the long term is a gradual change in the large-scale pattern as persistent ridging gets replaced by a long wave trough over the western CONUS next week. The first bit of moisture with this pattern change shows up Sunday evening into Monday, though this moisture feed will be directed toward northern Cal and Oregon. Precipitation chances continue to trend later on Sunday night, with the best chances coming after sunset on Sunday, with the highest chances (40%) in the north end of Sonoma county. As this moisture feed pushes south, so we see dwindling precipitation chances through the day on Monday in the Bay area. The bigger issue to watch with this increase in moisture would be for cloud/stratus potential to start next week. Better precipitation chances show up Tuesday night into Wednesday (50% along the coast). This will be driven by a positively tilted h5 trough moving south across CA and the eastern Pac. EPS precipitation Matrix at SFO shows about 60% of its members showing measurable precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday, though most members that show QPF have it under 0.25", so we`re not looking at a high impact rain event, though something that may send you reaching for the windshield wipers. The bigger impact from this trough will be the cooling of the temperatures as we see our highs in the 60s and 70s we`ve enjoyed the past few days get replaced by a more typical 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 939 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 Currently most terminals VRF with some skies SKC and a few seeing FEW200 build in from off the coast. Some FG/HZ remains trapped in a few East Bay valleys (KLVK seeing MVFR conditions), and will take another couple hours to lift and scatter out (satellite trends do show gradual improvement). Winds remain AOB 10kts and generally off shore with some local influences. Gradients will weaken today, letting diurnal influences creep in for some sites (with winds remains AOB 10kts). Some mid/high level moisture will move in around/after 03Z from the west. This should curb chances for FG/HZ formation tonight/early Fri morning, however non-zero chances for KSTS exist. Lower cigs arrive near the end of the period. Vicinity of SFO...Light E/NE winds will become NW this afternoon. Skies generally SKC, with SCT-BKN at 15kft or above morning in early Friday morning. This should curb chances for HZ forming Friday morning. Cigs will lower near 18Z Fri, potentially seeing MVFR/IFR impacts at times from 18Z through the end of the period. Could see some sprinkles during this time. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Mostly VFR conditions through the period. Mid to high level clouds will move in early Friday morning. Light southeast winds tonight through Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 209 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 Light south and east winds today will shift to northwest by Friday. Seas will remain slight to moderate today then rapidly build into rough seas tonight to Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front from the Pacific Northwest. && .BEACHES... Issued at 918 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST Friday at all Pacific Coast beaches, then upgrading to a High Surf Advisory through 9 PM on Saturday. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet, increasing to 17 to 22 feet on Friday. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1151 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for February 5th. Location Feb 5th Record High Santa Rosa 80 in 2011 San Rafael 79 in 2011 Kentfield 78 in 2011 Napa 79 in 2011 Richmond 81 in 2018 Livermore 78 in 2018 San Francisco 77 in 2018 SFO Airport 73 in 2011 Redwood City 77 in 2018 Half Moon Bay 76 in 2018 Oakland Museum 77 in 2011 San Jose 79 in 2018 Salinas Airport 80 in 2018 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PST Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM....MPG AVIATION...DeLizio MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

652 FXUS66 KOTX 051822 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1022 AM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild through Friday. - Mountain snow and lowland rain Saturday and Sunday with winter travel conditions over the mountain passes. && .SYNOPSIS... The Inland Northwest will be under an upper level ridge through Friday with dry weather. Temperatures will remain mild and above normal. A cold front will bring precipitation chances and breezy winds this weekend. Active weather continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Morning update: A strong inversion in place today will limit the mixing potential with the drier free atmosphere aloft with the moist boundary near the surface. Fog and low clouds will be stubborn to dissipate today as a result. I do expect that the low clouds will erode along the edges and the higher February sun angle with slightly longer days now will help through the afternoon today. Much of the valleys across tucked in across the northern mountains from the Methow to Chewelah- Colville to Deer Park, Priest River and Sandpoint will see the potential for dense fog with visibility to 1/4 mile or less this morning. The same will be the case across the Highway 2 corridor around Coulee City through Wilbur, Davenport and through Spokane. Fog will also slosh around in the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. All of these areas are within a dense fog advisory through noon. Conditions are expected to improve this afternoon, but a redevelopment of fog is a good bet overnight into Friday morning. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A strong inversion in place under high pressure will result in widespread fog and low stratus cover. The upper portions of the Columbia Basin into the northern mountain valleys will see low IFR conditions with dense fog through the rest of the this morning. Wenatchee to Moses Lake to Lewiston airports are expected to see MVFR to IFR ceilings under a low stratus deck. Conditions will improve gradually and the expectation is where fog has formed will either lift to a low stratus deck with ceilings below 1 kft agl or dissipate completely. The Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE) are on the southern fringe of the low clouds, and the prognoses is for these TAF sites to break out between 21-23Z this afternoon. Fog and low clouds will expand and fill more so across the region tonight will all airports expected to be under or within the low clouds by Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Model guidance is not initializing well at all with the boundary layer moisture and is too dry. There is little confidence in model guidance as a result and primarily basing the forecast off of past experiences with ridge patterns for early February of similar strength. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 32 43 33 48 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 50 Coeur d`Alene 52 34 45 33 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 Pullman 55 37 44 36 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Lewiston 57 38 53 39 56 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 Colville 48 32 43 32 44 37 / 0 0 0 0 30 60 Sandpoint 49 34 45 34 45 40 / 0 0 0 0 30 70 Kellogg 57 39 52 37 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 20 60 Moses Lake 52 33 46 33 46 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 Wenatchee 48 36 47 36 46 39 / 0 0 0 0 30 50 Omak 47 35 46 35 44 38 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Western Okanogan County. ID...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Coeur d`Alene Area- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. && $$

202 FXUS66 KPDT 052224 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 224 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and foggy conditions persist through Friday/Saturday - Pattern change Saturday will bring in high mountain snow and low elevation rain.&& .DISCUSSION... For the evening hours, the HREF ensemble mean shows a bolstering of the chances for visibility under one half mile, through out the foothills of the Northern and Southern Blue mountains and adjacent Columbia Basin of Oregon, Horse Heaven Hills, North Central Oregon and well as the Simcoe Highlands. Trends this afternoon will determine how many will require dense fog advisories, however an early showing of higher confidence probabilities coupled with the GFS LAMP favors the PDT/ALW areas overnight. Temperatures across the next couple of days will change very little across the cloudy/stratus areas especially below 2500 ft. NBM low temperatures for Friday morning vary only about 5 degrees between the 10th and 90th percentile members leading to fairly high confidence. As for highs, temperatures were running about 5 degrees too warm across the stratus influenced areas which will be the case again on Friday. The pattern will change from a fog to a rain pattern by Saturday with potential for several inches of snow in the high elevations of the Cascades, beginning around Sunday and running though Monday as the snow levels crash from around 5000 ft AGL to around 2800-3500 ft by Monday morning. This should favor a few inches (A Trace up to 2 or 3) in the pass levels to several inches of snow (6+) in the higher elevations based on the NBM right now. Total expected QPF averages about 0.75 across the lower slopes, around one half to one inch across the Blue Mountains. With a couple of tenths of an inch of rain over the low lands. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Fog and low stratus remain the primary concern through the next 24 hours. The stratus deck is thinnest in the vicinity of BDN/RDM, and has sloshed in and out of BDN, but remains entrenched farther north at RDM. This evening and overnight, have opted for a pessimistic forecast for both BDN and RDM as confidence is medium-high (60 percent) in stratus and/or fog at BDN and high (80 percent) at RDM. Elsewhere, dense fog has lifted at PDT, with stratus persisting at other sites. Confidence is very high (80-95 percent, varying by site) that the stratus will persist (BKN-OVC) for DLS/PDT/YKM/ALW/PSC overnight and Friday. Winds will be mostly light, and variable, except for a 6-10 kt easterly wind at DLS this afternoon. 86&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 32 44 35 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 35 45 38 54 / 0 0 0 10 PSC 32 41 34 48 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 32 42 34 44 / 0 0 0 10 HRI 34 42 35 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 32 40 32 41 / 0 0 0 30 RDM 27 50 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 35 57 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 33 57 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 37 45 38 49 / 0 0 0 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PST Saturday for ORZ506-509. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86

950 FXUS65 KREV 052158 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 158 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, mostly dry conditions with light winds through the weekend. * There is a 30% chance for light precipitation on Friday mainly in Mono and Mineral Counties. * Cooler temperatures and light precipitation possible as a cold front moves through Monday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Mild weather will persist through the weekend. W.Nevada valleys will see highs in the low 60s, while Sierra valleys reach the 50s. Winds remain light, and valley inversions will continue. Our persistent area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, allowing limited moisture to return to the western U.S. While no major storms are expected, a series of weak to moderate systems could bring progressively cooler conditions trough the middle of the month. A weak system may bring light rain and snow showers mainly to Mono County (20-40% chances) Friday into early Saturday morning. Only looking at about 1-2 inches on highest peaks in Mono County with snow levels hanging around 7500 feet. A modest cold front Monday-Tuesday could lower temperatures 8-10 degrees and shift winds to the north-northeast, helping weaken valley inversions. Light snow is possible above 6500-7000 feet in the Sierra and higher western Nevada with 20-30% odds of 1-2". After Tuesday, forecast confidence degrades as weaker disturbances linger into mid-week. Looking farther ahead, there is potential for a larger, cold low toward the middle of the month (Feb 14-16th), which could bring lower snow levels, better Sierra snow chances, and possible precipitation to lower W.Nevada valleys. The timing and trajectory of these closed lows is usually a low confidence affair, especially a week and half out, but keep tabs on the forecast if you have travel plans during that timeframe. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds continue through the weekend. Haze in lower valleys may lead to minor slantwise visibility reductions in the mornings for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. -McKellar/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

138 FXUS66 KSTO 052119 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 119 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with patchy fog in the Valley and lower foothills expected through the week - Confidence increasing in a pattern change Sunday into next week bringing renewed chances for precipitation && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows the fog and stratus from the Valley this morning has lifted and burned off, with abundant sunshine now being observed on this Thursday afternoon. The Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled early as visibilities improved across the region. Patchy dense fog will be possible tonight into Friday morning, however chances are very low for any widespread development. The upper level pattern will feature high pressure over much of the western US, gradually weakening and shifting eastward as we head into the weekend. Above normal temperatures will prevail across interior NorCal, with highs in the 60s to 70s in the Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains. A weak trough may bring the potential for light showers over the mountains south of Interstate 80 on Friday but minimal accumulations or impacts are expected. ...Sunday and onward... Confidence is increasing in a pattern change later this weekend into next week. As the upper level ridge breaks down and shifts eastward, ensemble guidance indicates that upper level troughing develops, bringing along the potential for showers, mountain snow, breezy winds and cooler temperatures Sunday through the middle of next week. The latest forecast has trended lower for precipitation and snow amounts, and only minor impacts are expected over this timeframe. The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook then favors below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the February 13th through 19th timeframe, indicating the potential for active weather to continue through at least the middle of February. && .AVIATION... Improving conditions for sites within the Sacramento Valley by this afternoon and evening with sites at VFR conditions after 00z Fri, outside of MOD and SCK who will remain MVFR to VFR due to mist. Overnight, we expect visibilities to drop to IFR to LIFR conditions after 06z from the southern Sacramento Valley southward as low as quarter-mile with accompanying low clouds with continued VFR conditions northward and light winds. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

363 FXUS65 KMSO 052056 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 156 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Record Warmth (through Sat): High pressure brings well above normal temperatures - Pattern Shift (Sun-Mon): A transition to cooler, unsettled weather begins Sunday. Expect breezy southwest winds ahead of the system. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies the next couple of days. The lack of clouds have allowed for ample warming today even without full mixing. Even though temperatures are not expected to reach their full potential today or on Friday, afternoon readings will be near daily records. The exception to all this warming are some of the valleys of north central Idaho and northwest Montana that will be under fog and/or low stratus all day. A plume of moisture will be making its way into the region, mainly north central Idaho and northwest Montana, Saturday night into Monday. Snow levels will remain quite high during this precipitation event, limiting the snowfall to the highest terrain of the Northern Rockies. Regardless of the snowlevels, subsurface temperatures are still hovering below freezing so any wet roads have the potential of turning icy during the overnight and early morning hours on Sunday. A cold front is still on track to push through the area late Sunday night into Monday. This front will bring widespread precipitation and lowering snow levels. The mountain passes along the Montana/Idaho border and Marias pass have the best potential of receiving a couple of inches of snow which could have minor to moderate impacts to the Monday morning commute. Snow levels will drop to around 2500 feet by Tuesday morning, but the bulk of the moisture will have already moved out of the region by then. Light showers are expected to linger across the region through the mid part of next week, but impacts appear to be minimal. && .AVIATION...High pressure, persistence forecasting applies. Expect IFR/LIFR weather conditions due to radiational fog and freezing lingering/redeveloping overnight in valley locations as cold pools interact with high soil moistures. Southwest winds increasing (gusts 15-25kt) by the weekend. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

627 FXUS65 KBOI 052115 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 215 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Inverted conditions continue throughout the short-term period. Mild temperatures will persist through Saturday for valley locations, with forecasted daytime highs that are on par with what would be expected if it were late March. Not much daily variation in temperatures is expected, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s in lower elevations (mountain temps in the 40s). Overnight lows tonight will generally be near or below freezing, warming a couple degrees each night. Come Friday, an upper level shortwave will close off into a shallow low and dive down near SoCal. While our area will remain dry, this feature will bring increased high cloud cover and weaken (but not break) the inversion. Higher elevations will be a few degrees cooler on Saturday as a result of the passing low. Ridging will briefly build back in Saturday, ahead of the next system in the long- term period. Fog/haze will be in play each morning in lower basins and mountain valleys, as moisture and cooler air continues to get trapped under the inversion. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...The upper ridge gives way on Sunday as westerly flow pushes in from the Pacific. A shortwave trough is pegged to move into the Pac NW Sunday night, led by a surface cold front. Mountains will see rain and snow Sunday night change to mostly snow on Monday behind the front. Mountain valleys could see light accumulations Monday morning as snow levels drop from 6-7kft to between 4-5kft MSL. Heavier snowfall is expected above 6kft MSL where the probability of >4" exceeds 60%. Lower elevations across SE Oregon and the Snake Plain in SW Idaho will see a period of light rain accompany the cold frontal passage late Sun/Mon with liquid amounts likely totaling less than 0.10 inches. Precipitation chances drop off after Monday as a split flow will direct storms to our north/south, shielding the area from any significant precipitation. There is uncertainty in the details of the storm tracks and ensemble guidance keeps a low chance of showers (15-30%) mainly in the mountains for Tue-Thur. Mountains will see temperatures cool 10-15 degrees from Sunday to Monday, with up to 10 degrees of cooling in the valleys where the inversion will finally break. Temperatures next week will run slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...VFR, with haze diminishing visibility in valleys. Local IFR conditions return tonight with redevelopment of fog across portions of lower Snake Plain (KEUL-KONO) and in mtn valleys. Surface winds: Up to 10 kt, except E-NE 10-20 kt in the central Snake Plain (KJER-KGNG). Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with haze. Light surface winds. Weekend Outlook...Morning IFR in fog across portions of lower Snake Plain and in mtn valleys Saturday. Otherwise VFR through Saturday night. Lowering ceilings and a chance of rain and snow increasing on Sunday. Valleys remain VFR on Sunday with IFR developing in the mtns. Snow levels 6-7kft MSL. && .AIR STAGNATION...Weak winds and high pressure will continue to support inverted conditions through the weekend. A upper-level trough and its associated cold front will arrive late Sunday/early Monday. Increased winds and cooling aloft will support increased vertical mixing and break us out of the inversion. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday IDZ012-014-016-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Monday ORZ062>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....DG AVIATION.....DG AIR STAGNATION...NF

175 FXUS65 KLKN 052021 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1221 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026 * Continued near record warm temperatures through the weekend * Periods of precipitation Monday through Wednesday * Turning colder starting Monday && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Warm and dry conditions continue for the next several days as the ridge thats dominated conditions of Nevada makes its exit east. Daytime temperatures during this period will continue to threaten records with high temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s through the weekend. On Sunday a longwave trough begins its passage onshore from the Pacific. Impacts begin with light snow near the Oregon/Idaho border Sunday night before expanding across northern Nevada by Monday morning and into central Nevada by late Monday night. Precipitation will begin as a valley rain/mountain snow mix on Monday before snow levels fall overnight and precipitation transitions to fully snow for Tuesday. Snow continues through Wednesday before largely clearing out overnight, although about a 20% chance for light snow looks to linger through Thursday. Early accumulation totals show the widest impact areas on Tuesday, with northern Nevada in focus on Monday and east-central Nevada in focus on Wednesday. This system will also cool temperatures back to near seasonal levels, with highs in the 30s and 40s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in warm and dry conditions through the weekend. Low to moderate confidence in the weather system early next week, including temperatures and timing and location of precipitation. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and winds less than 10KT expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94