376 FXUS66 KSEW 080340 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 840 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly shift inland over western Washington today ahead of a weak and mostly dry frontal system that will swing inland on Friday. High pressure will rebound over the western US over the weekend and into next week, bringing drier and warmer conditions to the region. Chances for light rain will increase towards the middle of next week as an upper low drops from the Gulf of Alaska. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Satellite imagery shows that the stratus has finally mostly cleared, but has been replaced by high clouds and a weak system begins to approach the area. Another round of stratus is expected to expand inland over the parts of the region tonight as onshore flow continues. A weak, dissipating frontal system will approach the region on Friday, bringing little more than light rain along the Pacific Coast and potential for drizzle through the stratus layer. Increased onshore flow from this weak system will bring extra cloud cover that will lower temperatures a few degrees from today. High pressure will quickly rebound over the western US on Saturday, bringing in warmer and drier conditions with plenty of sun breaks and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ensembles remain in good agreement that high pressure will remain situated over the western US through Monday, but models begin showing a large variance in solutions later Tuesday and beyond. A weak system along the periphery of the ridge will bring in extra cloud cover on Sunday alongside a slight chance for rain along the Northern Coast, with highs mostly topping out below 70 degrees. The ridge will build back into western Washington on Monday, allowing for sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Conditions will warm a few degrees into Tuesday as high pressure maintains warm and dry conditions across western Washington. Ensembles struggle to depict the track of a low pressure system mid week, with some members bringing the trough onshore across the Pacific Northwest while other members have the low stalling offshore. Temperatures look to remain warm, but the upper trough may start to reintroduce some light precipitation chances to portions of the area. 15 && .AVIATION... Upper level ridge over the area shifting east overnight. Westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly by 12z. Dissipating front moving through Friday with increasing low level onshore flow behind the front Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Middle and high level clouds overnight. Ceilings lowering to 4000 to 5000 feet Friday morning with local MVFR ceilings along the coast. Ceilings improving later Friday afternoon. KSEA...High clouds overnight. Ceilings lowering to near 4500 feet 12z-15z Friday. Ceilings lifting back up to aoa 10000 feet after 21z. Variable wind less than 5 knots becoming southwest 09z-12z. Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots 15z-21z easing to 4 to 8 knots after 21z. Felton && .MARINE... Light onshore flow tonight. A weak front will cross the waters Friday. High pressure will rebuild this weekend for onshore flow. SCA winds possible through the Strait of Juan de Fuca during the afternoon and evening hours Friday through Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

507 FXUS66 KPQR 072152 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 252 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will keep the pattern quiet and mostly dry into next week. Night and morning marine clouds will continue to be the main temperature wildcard, especially where clouds linger into midday. We may see another warming trend at the beginning of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...This afternoon`s weather was governed by the same split: steady ridging overhead, but marine influence near the surface. Now that the marine stratus inland has burned off as of 1 PM, expect clear skies and efficient warming through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. Into tonight, high clouds will move overhead, keeping overnight temperatures a degree or two warmer. Friday and through the weekend, the most reliable part of the forecast is the overall dry pattern, with the less reliable part being exact high temperatures. Marine stratus will continue to re-form and surge inland overnight, potentially all the way to the Cascades, then gradually retreat back toward the coast during the day. Even so, guidance suggests a somewhat better chance for earlier clearing for many inland locations as the ridge axis moves overhead, which would support warmer daytime highs more consistently. Overall, expect coastal and higher terrain highs mainly upper 50s to upper 60s, with inland valleys generally 70s (locally low 80s where clearing is best on Saturday). As for Mother`s Day (Sunday), while afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler due to a shortwave trough sliding into the PNW, weather will continue to look favorable for outdoor plans with inland highs in the 70s and 60s elsewhere under a mix of sun and passing clouds. The warmest and breeziest conditions remain favored in the Hood River Valley and the central Columbia Gorge, where overnight cloud cover is often less extensive and afternoon west winds are routinely strongest. Plan on afternoon winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph in these areas Friday and through the weekend. Friday still looks like the "dip" day as a weak shortwave glances over the top of the ridge. The main effect should be a bit more cloud cover and slightly cooler highs. Rain chances remain very low (less than 5%), and measurable precipitation is not expected. By early next week, ridging quickly reasserts itself and the odds of warmer inland temperatures increase. Temperatures early next week will depend on the exact placement and strength of the ridge axis, farther west generally favors warmer outcomes locally, while a more inland ridge placement would keep temperatures a bit more cooler. Tuesday remains the primary day to watch as ensemble guidance continues to show substantial spread in potential temperatures. Current guidance suggests highs could range anywhere from the lower 70s into the lower 90s Tuesday, with similar broad spread lingering into Wednesday. Specifically for Tuesday, the warmer ECMWF ensemble members continue to suggest temperatures that would exceed the model`s climatological extremes for early/mid May, though confidence in any specific outcome remains low at this time. ~12 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain predominately VFR conditions and mostly clear skies. Tonight, onshore flow will support re-development of marine stratus with 60-80% chance for MVFR CIGs or lower along the coast at any given hour after 06z Fri through the end of the TAF period. The highest chances will be around KONP and lower as you go toward the north Oregon coast. Marine stratus may also filter into the southern Willamette Valley, resulting in a 25-40% chance for MVFR CIGs at KEUG after 09-12z Fri. Winds generally light and north-northwesterly today, turning more south-southwesterly overnight. Similar to today, any stratus in the Willamette Valley should clear out by the afternoon, but it`s more uncertain if the coast will clear out on Friday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with high clouds through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds 4-6 kt, becoming variable under 5 kt tonight into early Friday morning. 10-20% chance for MVFR CIGs after 12z Fri. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain northerly winds through this evening. Tonight, winds turn southerly as a weakening front moves through the waters. Seas of 6-7 ft will gradually subside to 4-5 ft tonight through Friday night. High pressure will re-strengthen offshore this weekend into next week, returning northerly winds. Chances for widespread gusts of 20-30 kt gradually increase each day from Saturday through Wednesday, breeziest south of Cape Falcon. The highest chances (70-90%) for at least isolated small craft wind gusts are from Monday to Wednesday. Seas re-build to 5-7 ft from Saturday morning through the middle of next week. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

020 FXUS66 KMFR 072348 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 448 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...08/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for most areas, aside IFR conditions persist along the coast and over the marine waters from Port Orford southward. Gusty winds will continue through around sunset, then ease overnight. A weak and dry front passes through the region late tonight into early Friday, bringing increasing mid and high level cloud cover. This will bring increasing IFR/MVFR coverage in marine stratus along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin. There could be some MVFR ceilings that bank up against the Siskiyous/Cascades in portions of Jackson County, though VFR conditions should prevail at the Medford terminal. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026/ DISCUSSION... Coastal stratus is covering sections of Curry County with some fair weather cumulus building over Modoc County this afternoon. We`re also watching a few prescribed burns produce smoke in western Jackson County and northern Klamath county, although it looks like those are winding down at this time. High pressure remains in control as temperatures are trending roughly the same as 24 hours ago or a few degrees warmer. By tonight, the upper level ridge will start to break down ahead of an approaching short wave. This wave will hit the coast around sunrise with some stronger westerly flow and coastal stratus covering the coast. We`ll also see some dense high clouds push through the forecast area Friday morning. All of this should result in slightly cooler temperatures, although still warmer than normal for this time of year. High pressure will build again Saturday as the short wave departs the region and temperatures will rise again as a result. A thermal trough should also be present along the Oregon coastline. Temperatures along the coast will be in the lower 70`s under that thermal trough with highs in the upper to mid 80`s farther inland. We`ll cool back down on Sunday before temperatures warm up again on Monday. It looks like the GFS is forecasting a dry cold front stalling out in Central Oregon and the latest WPC surface front forecast agree with us in that assessment. The GFS 1000-500 mb layer RH looks rather dry around Bend Monday afternoon and evening, which led us to thing something is there. We`ll see another thermal trough likely develop over the Oregon coast as high pressure builds farther to the east and broad east flow develops over southern Oregon and northern California. East flow will be light, but strong enough to warm push Medford to 90 degrees in the latest NBM forecast, which still might be a few degrees to low. Mount Shasta City is currently a few degrees under the record high on Monday and Tuesday, although they could challenge the record high temperatures on Tuesday the 12th and 13th. Finally, the 12Z ECMWF ensemble is showing hints of precipitation Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Some models(~20%) are bringing what looks like thunderstorms developing over southern Oregon and northern California. Others are showing a west to east trough progression, which might result in a cooler showery type of rain, mostly in northern Oregon. In any case, it will be something to watch in future forecast runs. -Smith MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, May 7, 2026...Below advisory seas look to continue through the week and into the weekend. Northerly winds and westerly swell increase slightly on Saturday, making areas of steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco possible. Areas of steep seas are more likely to develop south of Cape Blanco by Sunday evening. Westerly swell eases slightly on Monday but northerly winds increase enough to bring steep seas to all area waters. Wind-built steep seas may continue into the middle of next week. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

963 FXUS66 KEKA 072228 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 328 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will slowly warm for the interior into the weekend. A shallowing marine layer may allow for some break in gloomy clouds close to the coast into the weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... -High pressure building into the weekend will warm interior temperatures. High temperatures will peak Sunday and Monday with minor to moderate heat risk for interior valleys in Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity Counties. -Gloomy coastal skies more likely to scatter and clear alongshore in the afternoons this weekend with some enhanced afternoon northerlies around Sunday. -Cooler temperatures and slight thunderstorm potential late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Gentle zonal flow has persisted over the area again today. Very weak ridging will arch over the area into the weekend. This will bring slightly warmer and drier conditions to the interior. Interior highs will be slightly above normal in the mid 80s by Saturday. Building heat will help shallow the marine layer along the coast. This will both increase the potential for night time fog but also increase the potential for some coastal blue skies in the afternoon. Friday appears to be the best chance to see blue on the coast with a 60% chance of skies at least scattering out in the afternoon. Stratus looks to slightly resurge on Saturday. North wind will increase along shore Saturday afternoon but especially Sunday. Despite a stronger marine inversion, the wind may help mix out some clouds on Sunday. High pressure will continue to build Sunday and into early next week. High temperatures will most likely peak around Next Monday. Interior highs will most likely reach the low to mid 90s. Solidly above average temperatures will promote generally minor to moderate Heat Risk with the greatest risk in Lake COunty due to warm conditions continuing overnight. A very shallow marine layer along shore will likely make for more scattered skies in the afternoon. Should skies clear enough, coastal temperatures could reach near 60. Most model ensemble members show a cutoff low forming up along shore mid to late next week. This low will help slightly weaken high pressure and drop interior temperatures. This low could bring a threat of thunderstorms, but most models show it staying too dry and too far offshore to bring much risk. Most thunderstorm potential late next week is now more than 10% at the moment in most models. /JHW && .AVIATION...Stratus has been eroding back to the coast and lifting with the daytime heating, although stratus near-coastal locations are expected to persist with the light sea breeze. Expect mainly MVFR ceilings for the coastal terminals, while VFR for interior NW California. This evening into Friday, a deeper marine layer will develop as a frontal system will approaches from offshore. Expect IFR to MVFR ceiling for the coastal terminals. Otherwise, the frontal system will destabilize the marine layer and conditions will become variable at the coastal terminals overnight. This will favor some coastal drizzle late tonight through mid Friday morning. Stratus will push inland and reach UKI during early Friday morning to bring it MVFR ceilings through mid Friday morning, then prevailing VFR conditions. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions at the coastal terminal Friday afternoon in the wake of the front. Breezy northerly winds with occasional gusty winds from 15 to 25 kts are expected to develop Friday afternoon through Friday evening at all forecast terminals./ZVS && .MARINE...No significant changes from the previous forecast. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes continue through today across the waters. Low NW waves around 3 and 5 feet at 8 and 12 seconds respectively. The short period wind driven waves are also expected to start to increase, especially south of Cape Mendocino with the moderate breezes. Tonight and Friday, a weak frontal boundary approaching the area will diminish the winds north of Cape Mendocino. Farther south northerly winds starts to increase to fresh to strong breezes by Friday afternoon. Saturday these stronger winds are expected to begin to expand farther north with 15 to 20 kt across much of the area north of Cape Mendocino. This is expected to build the short period wind driven waves to around 4 to 7 feet. Stronger winds are expected on Sunday with near gale to gale force gusts possible by Sunday afternoon. Winds are anticipated to gradually ease early next week; however, steep seas will prevail across the coastal waters. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

100 FXUS66 KMTR 080212 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 712 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 - Warming and drying trend will continue through the early part of next week - Temperatures are forecast to peak on Monday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the interior early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (This evening through Friday) Low clouds are retreating to the coast as of early this afternoon with sunny conditions returning to inland areas. Thus, maximum temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to upper 70s across much of the interior Bay Area, low to upper 80s across the interior Central Coast, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in the northwest facing coastal locations thanks to the depth of the marine layer. Stratus will once again return tonight and spread inland into the interior valleys by Friday morning before retreating to the coast by mid-to-late morning and early afternoon. Also, there is the low end potential for coastal drizzle or mist tonight into Friday morning. However, widespread rainfall highly unlikely. Friday, for most locations, will be warmer by a few degrees compared to today. Yet only expecting Minor HeatRisk across much of the interior. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1226 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) The warming and drying trend will continue into the weekend and peak on Monday of the upcoming workweek as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds westward. This is when more widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected across the interior. The relatively cool overnight low temperatures will likely prevent us from reaching higher categories of HeatRisk. However, in the hills and higher elevations across the region, temperatures will remain warm during the overnight period with 60s and a few 70s Monday night into Tuesday morning. The marine layer and associated impacts will begin to compress through the weekend, but not completely go away. With this and onshore flow prevailing, conditions along the northwest facing coastal locations will remain cooler compared to inland locations. On Monday, afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low to upper 90s across the interior with the greatest potential to reach or exceed 100 degrees F being around Pinnacles National Park (50%-65%) and the southern Salinas Valley (20%-40%). Temperatures are forecast to cool slightly by Tuesday, however will still remain some 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages. The cooling trend is currently forecast to continue into the middle of next week as a more zonal flow returns as the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest. However, the Climate Prediction Center maintains likely (roughly 60%) probability for above normal temperatures to persist through days 6-10. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 Another night of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected again tonight, with stratus building along the coast. Expect stratus to build in over the next several hours, with stratus clearing late tomorrow morning perhaps lingering into the early afternoon for some sites. VFR conditions should prevail into the afternoon and into the evening. The marine layer tonight and into tomorrow morning is expected to be around 1500-1800ft. It is expected 1200-1000ft by tomorrow evening and into Saturday morning. So stratus arrival might be a little delayed tomorrow evening. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to IFR cigs are expected tonight and will clear by late morning. Winds will remain gusty with 20-25kt gusts expected over the next few hours, with 10-15kt winds expected overnight. Tomorrow, as cigs clear, onshore flow returns. Expect breezy westerly winds around 15kt with gusts up to 25-30kt expected from 21Z to 5Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has returned this evening, which is accompanied with onshore flow. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected through the overnight hours, with cigs lifting late tomorrow morning. Gusty onshore winds return for the afternoon, especially around KSNS where they may get up to 15kt. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 711 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 Strong northwest breezes will persist through the weekend with steadily building rough seas. The rough seas will begin to ease Sunday across the coastal waters but continue over the outer waters into the beginning of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...KR MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

909 FXUS66 KOTX 072303 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 403 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy to locally gusty winds Friday afternoon and evening. - Widespread minor HeatRisk into next week. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Cold water temperatures pose a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia for anyone who unexpectedly falls in. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. && .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of May. Conditions will be dry. Winds will be gusty Friday and again Sunday, especially in Central Washington. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday-Sunday: A repetitive, yet fluctuating weather pattern is on tap for the Inland NW through the weekend with every 24 hours featuring either ridge of high pressure or brief ridge flattening and passage of an shortwave trough and associated cool front. One trough moved through today (Wednesday) so a ridge will follow for Thursday. Next trough will be Friday then another ridge rebounds on Saturday on before the next trough ripples through Sunday. Under the ridge, stable weather conditions will result in clear to partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. During the brief breakdown of the ridge, the main weather impacts will be breezy to locally windy conditions. Temperatures cool some behind each front but still remain on the mild side of 30-year averages. Precipitation chances will remain low with each trough yielding a 10-15% chance for showers over far North Idaho and Northeastern WA and largely drizzle on the Cascade Crest. Winds for Friday look similar to Wednesday. Pressure gradients across the forecast area on Wednesday were near 12 mb from PDX- GPI (Portland to Kalispell) and 11 mb from SEA-EAT (Seattle to Wenatchee). This is why the winds were locally stronger for the East Slopes and Western Basin vs the remainder of the region. Gusts at Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Ephrata, and Waterville were between 35-40 mph. Expect similar speeds for Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts on Wednesday for the Palouse, West Plains, and Eastern Basin were 20-30 mph. I anticipate similar speeds with even a slight increase due to the next trough being a bit deeper. Monday-Thursday: There is high confidence for a ridge of high pressure to strengthen on Monday. 85% of the ensembles suggest this ridge will be stronger and persist through Thursday. The 15% of the members that differ are mainly European members and bring another trough to the Pac NW Coastline. We do start to see a transition by late in the week toward more ensemble members (~60% of the members) shifting the ridge inland and opening the door to south to southwest flow. This offers "some" hope for increasing precipitation chances over the Inland though precise details are far from certain this far out. Overall weather impacts through the week will be focused on the windier days which will bring elevated fire weather conditions and potential for choppy lakes. Water temperatures remain cold and those recreating in smaller vessels like kayaks should exercise caution on the windier days. Minor heat risk will be present through the next seven days with temperatures warming into the 70s to 80s but relief is expected each night with overnight lows in the 40-50s. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A dry cold front will sweep through the region Friday afternoon and Friday evening bringing increased westerly winds. There a chance for blowing dust in the late afternoon and evening for KEPH- KMWH as gusts increase to around 25-30 kt which may bring brief visibility restrictions. Mid to high level clouds will increase overnight but will clear out around 21-23z for KEAT-KMWH and 23-02z for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS as the front passes through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions for all TAF sites except KMWH Friday afternoon as gusty winds may bring blowing dust. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 77 51 74 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 73 49 70 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 70 45 69 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 76 49 76 47 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 82 49 76 43 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 73 47 70 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 71 46 70 44 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 81 50 79 45 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 82 54 76 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 85 54 81 47 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

193 FXUS66 KPDT 072232 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 332 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through next week - Breezy to locally gusty gap winds Friday and Sunday - Low RHs and breezy winds will overlap the remainder of this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon in the Cascade gaps and Lower Columbia Basin && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Sunday: Breezy Cascade gap winds continue this afternoon in the wake of a shortwave exit earlier this morning. Otherwise, high thin scattered decks of cirrus are also spreading across the region this afternoon. Upper level ridging will move over the forecast area this afternoon and tonight, continuing a drying trend with winds becoming light overnight. Friday, a shortwave will briefly flatten the ridge as it slides into the PacNW. Very little moisture will accompany the shortwave passage tomorrow, resulting in dry conditions continuing. However, a dry frontal boundary will follow the shortwave, resulting in increasing winds through the Cascade gaps and into the lower elevations of the forecast area. Winds will generally be 15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph, however winds will be 25-35 mph with gusts 45-55 mph in the Kittitas valley tomorrow afternoon (confidence 75-85%). Upper level ridging will rebound late Friday and prevail through Saturday night. While dry conditions will persist through the weekend, another shortwave will flatten the ridge for Sunday, resulting in another day of breezy to locally gusty winds in the afternoon and evening. Monday through Wednesday: There is good agreement amongst ensemble cluster solutions that upper level ridging will once again build back over the region, resulting in dry and warm conditions with light winds Monday (confidence 60-75%). Tuesday and Wednesday, agreement lowers quite a bit as about 50% of members favor a trough passing over the PacNW while the other about 50% favor ridging persisting overhead. The troughing solution (favored by ECWMF members) would bring light showers to the Cascade crest late Tuesday and Wednesday with breezy conditions and temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations; the ridging solution (favored by GFS members) would continue a drying trend with temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower elevations. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Breezy winds 12-17kts with gusts to 25kts will continue at sites DLS/PDT into the late afternoon and early evening, while winds will increase around 21Z at sites RDM/BDN and persist into the evening. Breezy winds will remain at site DLS overnight, with light winds prevailing elsewhere overnight. Winds will become breezy at all sites tomorrow, with strongest winds at sites DLS/PDT. Lawhorn/82 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon relative humidities will remain low through next, with areas of central Oregon reaching single digits by Saturday. Gap and Basin winds will continue to be locally breezy through this afternoon, and will increase tomorrow as a dry front moves across with breezy to locally gusty westerly winds developing in the Basin and adjacent valleys and foothills. Poor to moderate recovery tonight, with moderate to good recovery through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... The Naches River near Naches is forecast to remain above action stage for the next week. Above-normal temperatures are forecast to continue, and significant precipitation is unlikely (90 percent confidence) for the next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 52 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 54 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 50 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 52 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 46 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 41 76 38 84 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 42 73 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 43 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 49 75 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for WAZ026. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...82 HYDROLOGY...86

367 FXUS65 KREV 071903 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1203 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming and drying trend prevails through this weekend with above average high temperatures. * Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely by early next week. * Breezy afternoon winds are likely with a weak system to our north on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level shortwave over the Pacific NW will help keep afternoon high temperatures similar both today and tomorrow (low 80s valleys, low to mid 70s Sierra). It will also bring increased breezes Friday afternoon, with gusts 30-35 mph, mainly from the Sierra and eastward. High pressure only strengthens this weekend, helping us warm up and dry out. Afternoon highs will shoot into the upper 80s/low 90s by late this weekend for valleys, with upper 70s/low 80s for Sierra communities. The record highs for Reno Sunday through Tuesday are 90F, 89F, and 91F, respectively. Current chances to exceed 90F Sunday through Tuesday are 22%, 74%, and 60%, respectively. Monday looks to be the best chance at hitting, or surpassing, records as of now. The aforementioned high pressure peaks in intensity Monday over the Great Basin before shifting more to the Four Corners region by Wednesday. This may bring up some moisture from Baja California, which increases chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and onward. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the week with mainly light and VRB winds. Afternoon gusts will reach up to 25 kts both today and tomorrow. KTRK can expect FG each night from 11-16Z, bringing IFR/LIFR conditions. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

520 FXUS66 KSTO 071743 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1043 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop early next week with Moderate HeatRisk Sunday-Tuesday. - Hottest Days Monday and Tuesday with triple digit and daily record highs possible. - Temperatures will still be above-normal Wednesday onward, but follow a gradual cooling trend with increased delta breeze influence. && .DISCUSSION... ...Thursday through Wednesday... Temperatures continue on a warming trend today with high temperatures 5 to 10 above normal as ridging builds over the eastern Pacific before moving over Northern California this weekend. Warmer and drier conditions will continue through the weekend, with widespread Minor HeatRisk through Saturday, with areas of Moderate in the foothills. Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread Monday through Tuesday. Lingering troughing influence will lead to an increased Delta breeze today through Sunday, as a result there may be some marine stratus intrusion in the morning especially on Friday and Saturday. Hottest days are expected to be Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. There is some uncertainty on whether locations will climb into the triple digits as the latest ensembles show the ridge axis further eastward over Nevada, but temperatures are still on track to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal. As a result, some places may see tied or broken daily high temperature records. The NBM indicates a 70 to 95% chance of 90 or greater throughout the entire Valley and Delta next Monday and Tuesday, with a 30 to 50% chance of 100 or more across portions of the central Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin. There may be some Delta breeze to give influenced areas a slight break for overnight lows. Minimum RH values trend lower through early next week as well, dropping into the 20s and teens by Monday. Ensembles depict the ridge breaking down towards the middle of next week which will result in a gradual cooling trend Wednesday onward, however temperatures will still be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Delta breeze influence is expected to pick back up mid week as well. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Local MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible with marine stratus through the Delta and impacting Sacramento area TAF sites 12-18Z Friday. Surface winds generally 12 kts or less except near the Delta, where winds to 15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

214 FXUS65 KMSO 072019 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 219 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening primarily in NW Montana. - A strong ridge brings dry conditions and high temperatures into the 70s and 80s through the next week. - Dry afternoons with minimum relative humidities in the 20% range and below. A passing disturbance will trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, again, this afternoon and evening. The highest chances remain across northwest Montana, tapering off as you head south toward the I-90 corridor. Expect brief heavy rain and localized gusty winds near any storms, alongside widespread afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph. Starting Friday, a broad ridge of high pressure builds across the western U.S. dominating the weather pattern through the next week. This will bring a prolonged period of dry, quiet weather with high temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s. Afternoon relative humidities will dry out into the 20 percent range and below. A couple of very weak waves may brush the region on Saturday and Monday, but impacts will be limited to slightly breezier winds and a minimal (10 percent) chance of a passing shower. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. This activity will primarily focus across northwest and west-central Montana, between 07/2000z and 08/0100z with brief MVFR conditions possible due to lowered ceilings along with some gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, widespread west-northwest winds will gust 15-25 kts at most terminals this afternoon before subsiding this evening. Note for KHRF: Active prescribed burning and fuels management in the vicinity is creating periodic, localized reductions in visibility due to smoke. Note for KSMN: Sensor observations are back online and reporting normally once again. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

889 FXUS65 KBOI 072344 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 544 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warm, dry, and breezy through Friday with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal. - Dry cold front Friday afternoon leading to slight cooling Saturday. - Temperatures warming to 15-20 degrees above normal next Sunday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 206 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026 A nearly stationary ridge of high pressure remains anchored along the coast, keeping the region warm and dry through Friday. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early May, with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s in the lower valleys. Surface winds will remain breezy during the afternoon hours, generally from the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, especially within the Snake Basin. A weakening upper level trough moving through the Pacific will push a dry cold front across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho Friday afternoon and evening. While the front lacks the moisture to produce precipitation, it will bring a period of increased winds. Winds will gust to around 30 mph behind the front Friday evening before tapering off overnight. Saturday will see a slight reprieve from the heat as temperatures drop closer to seasonal averages, though the cooling will be brief. By Saturday night, the ridge begins to re-amplify over the western United States, setting the stage for a significant warming trend heading into the second half of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 206 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026 Amplifying ridging over over the western CONUS will give way to the warmest temperatures of the season through the long-term period. A "cold" front late Sunday will offer just a few degrees of cooling and breezier conditions for Monday. Throughout the period, temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal, with temperatures in the Snake Plain ranging from 85 to 95 degrees. Some monsoonal moisture could work its way into our area by mid-week next week. Although uncertainty is higher in that solution. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 535 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026 VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt this afternoon, calming 0-10 kt around sunset and becoming more variable. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon, becoming more variable 2-8 kt this evening. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Surface winds W-NW 5-10kt with gusts up to 22 kt near KTWF/KJER Sat/PM, becoming SW-SE 5-15kt Sunday. A cold front late Sun/PM will bring NW gusts of 20-30 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....NF

646 FXUS65 KLKN 071930 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1230 PM PDT Thu May 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend well underway today, and last through the rest of the week * High pressure will be the dominant weather maker across the Great Basin, signaling a prolonged stretch of dry weather * Record high temperatures are possible at several area climate sites beginning Sunday and into early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) A familiar pattern returns for this week as a warming trend kicks off for the second week of May. A REX blocking pattern is setting up again over the southwest. Also called a high over low, or figure 8 block, this pattern features a upper low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula topped by a upper ridge which will set up over the Great Basin. The result will be a prolonged period of dry conditions, and warming temperatures for NE Nevada through at least the middle of next week. Winds will be generally West to southwest at 10 mph to 20 mph with occasional gusts up to 30 mph possible. Temperatures will be the main story with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s through Saturday. Then as the ridge strengthens and amplifies over the west Sunday into early next week, highs will reach the 90s for many locations, which means that for this time of year, temperatures will be approaching, and may exceed record territory for a few spots. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for warming temperatures and dry conditions through Wednesday of next week. There is high confidence for a period of near record to record heat starting Saturday, and lasting through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through Friday evening with breezy west to southwest winds of 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT possible. Remnant mid level moisture will generate FEW to SCT convective build-ups for KEKO, KELY, and KENV through Friday afternoon. No moisture is expected at this time from these build ups. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure building in across the much of the west this week will lead to elevating fire weather concerns as dry conditions continue through the middle of next week. Warming temperature are forecast to reach near to, or exceed record highs by the late weekend. Breezy afternoon west to southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, will combine with the temperatures to drop Humidity levels to the teens and single digits through at least Wednesday of next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98