ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

002 FXUS66 KSEW 130917 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 217 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will rebuild across the region into Tuesday for warm and drier conditions. An area of low pressure may bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms around midweek before high pressure regains control toward the weekend for a return of dry conditions and well above normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly clear conditions prevail across Western Washington early this morning. High pressure aloft will continue to build over the region today as an area of low pressure digs southward offshore. The warming trend continues into Tuesday as the ridge continues to strengthen over the area with the offshore trough becoming cut-off. High temperatures will get into the 80s for interior areas...especially Seattle southward...with portions of the Seattle-Tacoma area getting into likely Moderate HeatRisk. Warm temperatures for interior areas continue into Wednesday with the ridge in place for continued likely Moderate HeatRisk for a large swath of the Seattle-Tacoma corridor. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Uncertainty in the forecast becomes a significant factor by Thursday as models continue to struggle with the path of the cut-off low offshore. A significant portion of the ensembles, especially the suite of ECMWF solutions, suggest a continued threat of showers and/or thunderstorms on Thursday coupled with a brief cool down. Negatively tilted lows such as this often have a way of initiating elevated instability with no deference to the time of day. This will continue to pose a fire weather concern and need to be monitored closely. Once this system exits the area, models remain pretty locked in with strong upper ridging for an extended period of well above normal temperatures and dry conditions for the weekend and beyond. 27 && .AVIATION... Southwesterly flow aloft will persist into Tuesday. Surface winds generally light and variable although some terminals reporting northerly winds 4-8 kts. By this afternoon, most terminals should be reporting similar direction and speed...with some variances to the northeast or northwest. Some high clouds in place over W WA this early morning with vast swaths of clear skies. Marine stratus that had been expected to develop along the coast and the Strait has yet to develop, which should this trend continue would necessitate alterations to HQM, CLM and PWT for the 12Z package. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for remaining terminals throughout the forecast period, with the aforementioned terminals expected to be VFR by late morning. KSEA...VFR throughout the period. Northerly winds running a little hotter than advertised above, 5-10 kts, and likely to remain that way into the afternoon before a slight shift to the NW by 22Z. Returning northerly with speeds easing slightly to 4-8 kts this evening and overnight. 18 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure over area waters throughout the next few days. Diurnal westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will be the main theme. Speeds for the most part look to remain below SCA criteria, with tonight being the exception where speeds look to run 15-25 kts. As such, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting late this afternoon and running into tonight. Coastal waters may also see wind gusts approach 20 kt towards the end of the week on Thursday and Friday with another low system tracking through the waters. Seas for the majority of the forecast will remain at 4-6 ft, with the system Thursday/Friday increasing seas to 7-8 ft with periods around 6-8 seconds. 41/18 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warming temperatures this week will increase the fire weather risks going into the weekend. A potential cut-off low pressure system arriving around midweek remains a concern for convection and associated risks of lightning strikes with fuels now running quite dry. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

397 FXUS66 KPQR 130600 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures expected today, then increasing Monday and Tuesday as a ridge amplifies over the northern Plains. The temperature and precipitation forecast becomes more uncertain late Wednesday into Thursday, however chances for rain showers during that time have increased with the latest forecast update. Trending warm and dry Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM...Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night...Satellite observations from early Sunday afternoon depicted mostly clear skies across southwest WA and northwest OR. Surface high pressure remains in place with low-level onshore flow and dry southwest flow aloft. Expect this trend to continue through Tuesday, aside from a period of cloudier skies along the coast Tuesday morning. Confidence remains high for noticeably warmer temperatures Monday into Tuesday as 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures rise ahead of a developing closed upper level low that will be centered somewhere over the far northeast Pacific early in the week. Total model spread for high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday remains very narrow, with inland valleys expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, warmest on Tuesday. Onshore winds will keep the coast much cooler with highs ranging between 65-70 degrees. Dry conditions will continue Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night, with one potential exception in the high Cascades of Lane and Linn Counties late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. This area has a 15-35% chance of rain showers and a 10% chance of thunderstorms during that time with the passage of a weak upper level impulse. Composite reflectivity guidance from the NAM Nest and the RRFS model both suggest the vast majority of convection on Tuesday will occur east of the Cascade crest, which makes sense given the south-southwest to southwest winds aloft evident in forecast soundings. It is also worth noting the potential for hazy skies in the Cascades of eastern Lane County during the late afternoon/evening hours Sunday and Monday due to smoke coming from a wildfire burning in northwest Jackson County between Wimer, OR and Shady Grove, OR. The RRFS smoke model backs up this expectation, with vertically integrated smoke values increasing to near 25 mg/m^2 near the Cascade crest. Fortunately, smoke aloft is not expected to mix down to the surface in eastern Lane County. -19/23 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday night...The upper level low responsible for warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be the same low responsible for uncertainty in the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday, particularly in regards to the temperature and precipitation forecast. Although model ensemble guidance is in good agreement regarding the development of a closed low somewhere over the far northeast Pacific early in the week, guidance begins to vary more when it comes to the strength and track of this low late Wednesday into Thursday. Around 60% of the multi-model ensemble (GEFS/GEPS/ENS) suggests the low will track directly over the WA and/or north OR coast, while the remaining 40% suggests the low will stay nearly stationary offshore while weakening. If the low does move inland and takes a track towards western WA or northwest OR, expect temperatures to end up cooler than the current deterministic forecast with increasing chances for rain showers. If the low stalls offshore and weakens, conditions will trend warmer and mainly dry, aside from chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Cascades given the persistent southerly flow aloft this set-up would result in. Total model spread for high temperatures on Thursday remains large due to this uncertainty, with inland highs ranging anywhere from the upper 70s to mid 90s per the NBM 10th-90th percentile. One thing worth noting is chances for a low track that is more favorable for showers in southwest WA and northwest OR, including locations west of the Cascades, have increased when compared to yesterday. The latest NBM guidance reflects this well and has increased PoPs to 20-40% Wednesday night into Thursday. Chances for at least 0.25 inches of rain or more have also increased and now range between 10-20% across all of northwest OR and southwest WA from the coast to the Cascade crest, with the highest probabilities over southwest WA, the north OR coast/Coast Range, lower Columbia, and Portland metro. There is a 1-10% chance for 0.50 inches of rain or more, which represents the wettest model solutions. Confidence in the forecast actually increases a bit Friday into Saturday. This is when model ensemble guidance is in good agreement for dry and warm conditions, with high temperatures somewhere in the 80s or 90s for inland valleys. Chances for highs of 90 degrees or warmer peak on Saturday at 50-60% across the Willamette Valley, Portland metro, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley. Chances for highs above 100 degrees are around 1-10%, suggesting extreme heat and significant heat-related impacts are unlikely to occur next weekend. -23 && .AVIATION...High pressure over the region continues to maintain widespread VFR conditions. A weak low pressure system digs southward over the ocean through the TAF period, breaking down the high pressure and gradually shifting the flow aloft to southerly. Through the TAF period, expect VFR conditions to continue inland and mostly VFR conditions along the coast (the exception being a 20-30% chance of IFR CIGs between 11-17Z Mon due to the potential of patchy low stratus). Otherwise, expect light north to northwesterly winds overnight, then 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast between 18Z Mon and 05Z Tue. Coastal terminals may see gusts up to 20-25 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northwesterly winds around 5-10 kt. ~12 && .MARINE...High pressure over the waters with a typical summer time pattern. Flow remains north to northwest with a thermal trough forming along the coast. Winds are generally 8-10 kt but will continue to rise through the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. Along the coastline and moorages, gusts up to 25 kt have been reported. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected with sustained winds of 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt over much of the waters, but latest models have reduced coverage in the northern waters. Overall, the SCA is marginal and will likely fluctuate below and above criteria. Winds will ease overnight into Monday morning and therefore have shortened the length of time for the hazard. Seas will be around 5-7 ft at 6-8 seconds. Could see periods of choppier seas, but not necessarily widespread enough for hazardous seas. Conditions the rest of the work week are expected to be benign with wind waves ramping up on Saturday. A SCA has been issued as well for rough seas in the Columbia River Bar due to a strong ebb and seas of 7 ft. -27 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

252 FXUS66 KMFR 130617 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1117 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...13/06 TAFs...The East Evans Creek fire is bringing areas of MVFR visibility from the smoke to the southeast, including both near Klamath Falls and in the Rogue Valley north of Medford. This is expected to become more concentrated overnight, before improving with an increase in wind speeds during Monday afternoon. Also, areas of IFR are expected overnight into Monday morning north of Cape Blanco into the Coquille Valley, and near Brookings. Otherwise, VFR will continue through Monday evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for eastern Modoc and southern Lake counties. && .MARINE...Updated 900 PM PDT Sunday, July 12, 2026...Gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco will bring conditions hazardous to small craft through Monday morning in all waters. Then, steep seas will continue in areas south of Cape Blanco through Monday evening. Conditions improve later Monday night into Tuesday morning, but areas of steep seas and borderline advisory winds return Tuesday afternoon and may persist through mid-week south of Cape Blanco. These thermal trough driven winds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours, and are likely to reach a peak of strength during Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Fire weather concerns continue this afternoon as dry conditions with elevated afternoon winds persist. A Red Flag Warning continues into tonight for Modoc, southwest Klamath, and southwest Lake counties. * Northerly surface breezes in Jackson County will push more smoke into the Rogue Valley today. The most accumulation has been in the Medford and Grants Pass area, with meaningful accumulation through Ashland and lesser amounts reaching the Illinois Valley. Smoke may further accumulate overnight once daytime breezes dissipate. * A shift to southerly flow looks to bring atmospheric moisture and instability to start the week ahead. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Monday and increase on Tuesday, but the most recent model runs are showing decreasing support for widespread activity. * Warm and dry conditions may return on Friday and could continue through next weekend. DISCUSSION...Southwest flow aloft between a Pacific trough and midwest high pressure remains a guiding feature for the short- term forecast. With a tighter pressure gradient continuing between these features, afternoon and evening breezes will remain slightly higher than usual. For the Red Flag Warning area, gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible. For other east side areas, afternoon gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range. Cloud cover moving from south to north over east side areas indicates the arrival of monsoonal moisture along that upper flow. Surface winds in Jackson County are starting a turn to the north, which looks to push smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire towards the Rogue Valley. Air quality sensors already show affects from lingering smoke from Grants Pass to Ashland and trace effects into the Applegate and Illinois valleys. Northerly breezes in Jackson County ease into the late evening/overnight period, allowing smoke to linger in low-lying areas. Individuals with air quality concerns may want to carefully consider travel plans in this timeframe, especially with the absence of winds capable of helping smoke clear out of the area. A cutoff low slides into the Pacific trough, making the feature deeper and shifting flow aloft to be more southerly in orientation on Monday. High pressure over the CONUS will also increase, nudging daytime highs to 5-10 degrees above normal early in the week ahead. This will continue to guide monsoonal moisture over the area, with cloud cover over the east side this afternoon representing the arrival of that moisture. A combination of this atmospheric moisture as well as upper level instability has made afternoon and evening thunderstorms a concern for east side areas to start the week ahead. Today`s SPC CAMs shows isolated pulse thunderstorms are possible over easternmost Modoc and Lake counties on Monday. While Tuesday still has potential for more widespread activity, the latest model runs show instability moving eastward which would limit activity over the CWA. Additionally, if cloud cover continues into Tuesday morning, surface heating would be limited which would take convective influence away into the afternoon. That said, this is one model run and additional runs will help to establish confidence in this interpretation. Chances for isolated thunderstorm activity remain for Wednesday and occasionally even Thursday, but look to be isolated at most. In the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, the cutoff low will start drifting east then northeast, cooling daytime highs slightly on Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures rebound to end the week as higher pressure moves in to take its place. With the ridge axis remaining farther east, staying in the 5-10 degrees above normal range is generally expected. To illustrate this, NBM probabilistic data keeps a 40-50% chance for Medford to reach 100 degrees for Friday through next Sunday with lower 20-30% chances into the Shasta Valley and the rest of the Rogue Valley. NWS HeatRisk data shows Moderate levels for these areas, which is not Advisory-worthy but still helps to support the forecast of warmer conditions for next weekend. -TAD FIRE WEATHER...Updated at 200 PM Sunday, July 12, 2026...Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue today, with a Red Flag Warning in place for southeast portions of the forecast area through tonight. Strong gusty southwest to west winds (25-35 mph) during the afternoons and evening continue across northern California and eastside areas. Daytime humidities will be in the mid to low teens today coupled with those gusty winds. This will result in critical fire weather conditions across Modoc county and southeastern portions of Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 624 today. Thunderstorms are possible through the first half of the week as monsoonal moisture pumps into the region. There is currently a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon in southeastern Modoc County before expanding to more of Lake and eastern Klamath counties. However, Tuesday looks to have a higher chance for thunderstorms which could result in lightning over dry fuels for northern California and eastside areas. While chances continue into Wednesday, the overall threat will be lower when compared to Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions are possible over next weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. && $$

231 FXUS66 KEKA 130746 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1246 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Interior Heat: An upper-level ridge has moved westward causing temperatures to rise above normal across inland valleys again today and Tuesday. * Slight chance thunderstorms. A 10 percent chance for thunderstorms Monday afternoon through early Tuesday. Then a 20 percent chance in Trinity County on Tuesday afternoon and evening. * Coastal flooding: Minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay possible at the evening high tide through Wednesday night. && .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures return to much of the interior today. Monsoonal moisture will bring cloud cover and moisture Monday and Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms or showers are possible Monday and Tuesday in the interior. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough in British Columbia continues to inch eastward while an upper ridge over the Southwest US continues to expand westward. This ridge will bring above normal temperatures to the interior with 90s likely for most valleys and the warmest areas possible exceeding 100. Monsoonal moisture from the south has started to stream over the area in the form of high clouds. So far, none of these have resulted in showers that reached the ground. This may change overnight as additional moisture streams in early Monday morning. CAMs are showing a higher potential for a few rain showers, especially in Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity Counties. Instability is limited, but an isolated thunderstorms is possible with an especially strong shower. Dry surface conditions will likely prevent most precipitation from reaching the ground. This pattern continues Monday afternoon and overnight through Tuesday morning. Instability still remains limited, but a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Thunder chances increase Tuesday afternoon with added surface heating and moisture. The highest chances are in Trinity County with up to 20% chance for thunderstorms. Some of the CAMs within range show convection mainly in Trinity county. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 90s for most interior valleys with the warmest areas exceeding 100 early next week. Additional cloud cover early next week may nudge these forecasted temperatures down a few degrees. HeatRisk remains minor to locally moderate. Coastal areas remain in the high 50s to mid 60s with stratus forming overnight and partially clearing by the afternoon. Drier air returns midweek as the Pacific Northwest trough moves southwestward. A deeper marine layer will likely bring interior temperatures down by a few degrees, while bringing more widespread, and possibly persistent, coastal stratus. High pressure returns late next week, returning warmer interior temperatures. Next Sunday and Monday more monsoonal moisture is expected to stream north over the area. The NBM is showing over 1 inch PWATS and some low end instability. This will need to be watched as it gets closer as the NBM already has some 10 to 20 percent chances for thunder. At this point these look like they may be on the wetter side. MKK/JB && .AVIATION...Light southerly winds overnight at the coastal terminals with high pressure and not much cloud cover could produce encourage light ground fog development as radiational cooling commences. Model guidance does not suggest low visibility as much as it does suggest ceilings below 500 feet and likely to be around 300feet Monday early morning. Winds veer westerly by the afternoon Monday and improve flight categories to VFR at KCEC and KACV. Prevailing VFR conditions at KUKI are expected with northerlies gusting up by the late afternoon. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds ease overnight in the southern waters but remain elevated south of the Cape Mendocino with localized gusts up to 30+ knots. Nearshore winds will be much lighter at for the northern inner waters, but could still be breezy Monday afternoon for the southern waters. Gale force gusts are likely to arrive Tuesday late afternoon/early evening just south of the Cape once again. Combined seas at 10 feet or less will diminish into mid- week. Wind waves could increase seas by Thursday evening and back off by Saturday morning. /EYS && .Coastal Flood...High astronomical tides and the basin wide warmth in the ocean is creating higher than normal water levels despite light northerly winds. The water levels were 0.6 feet over the astronomical tide Sunday evening resulting in a high tide of 8.8 feet. This will likely put water levels around 8.9 feet at the North Spit in Humbodlt causing and cause minor flooding again Monday evening. This may continue Tuesday night as well before astronomical tides start to diminish Wednesday night/Thursday morning. MKK .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

078 FXUS66 KMTR 130616 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1116 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 - Monsoon moisture brings a slight chance for thunderstorms through Tuesday - Minor coastal flooding continues through Thursday morning due to large tidal swings - Warmer temperatures through Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 (Tonight through Tuesday) You may have noticed some colorful sunrises and sunsets over the last two days. Those are being caused by monsoon moisture pushing up from the south bringing us mid level clouds. Even if it`s overcast, there is enough room underneath the clouds (about 10,000 feet) for the setting sun to illuminate the bottom of these altostratus and altocumulus clouds and create the beautiful sunsets. It also helps that the low-level marine layer clouds, which typically only sit about 1,000 feet above the surface and famously ruin sunsets, were not nearly as widespread as we saw last week. So that explains the sunset, but what about the monsoon? While the word invokes many different feelings, "monsoon" actually describes a seasonal wind direction reversal. The North American Monsoon primarily impacts NW Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico as the high summer temperatures in the desert induce thermal low pressure that brings in moist air primarily from the Gulf of California. This moisture, combined with the instability driven by high surface temperatures, often generates thunderstorms over the desert states in the Summer. In fact, Tuscon gets 52% of its rain from July-September, while we are lucky to get anything. Every once in a while the weather pattern aligns in such a way to bring some of this monsoon moisture to the Bay Area. In this case it`s driven by a very strong high pressure system over the Rockies. This system is so strong that Salt Lake City just set their all time record high temperature of 109F. Since winds flow clock-wise around a high, this system is pushing the monsoon moisture from Arizona in a circular pattern towards Southern California and then northward to the Bay Area. This final push of southerly winds is enhanced by a low pressure trough over the Eastern Pacific. As the moisture moves along this conveyer belt it also moves higher in the atmosphere (humid air is less dense than dry air). This explains where the uncommon mid level clouds are coming from. While this moisture was mostly harmless today, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms through Monday. If that happens it could bring significant impacts because the high cloud base and much drier lower atmosphere means that most of the rain would evaporate before it hits the ground. When lightning strikes without much rain, wildfires can start. Thunderstorms need 3 ingredients: instability, moisture and a lifting mechanism. We have moisture, check that off the list. The instability looks pretty meager. The 00Z weather balloon from Vandenberg found the steepest lapse rates to be -7.3 C/km between 850 and 500 mb. That`s not terrible, but most of the moisture is above 600mb, where it`s more like -6.6 C/km, which is pretty bad. To add to the issues, there`s not really an obvious trigger either. Surface heating is the typical trigger for monsoon thunderstorms in the desert, but these would be high based thunderstorms that wouldn`t really feel that impact. More likely is nocturnal cloud top radiational cooling, combined with cloud base heating from surface radiation. While surface cooling makes things more stable, cloud top cooling does the opposite. If the top of the cloud gets colder and the bottom gets warmer, the instability increases due to the steeper lapse rate. The HRRR soundings also suggest that in the morning the the moisture plume will move further down towards the -10 to -20 C sweet spot where the combination of supercooled water and ice maximize particle collisions and cloud charging potential. So the best chance is probably early Monday morning. Even then it`s a long shot. We`re talking like somewhere between 5 and 10%. Don`t be surprised if you see another good sunrise and even a few drops of rain, however. Otherwise Monday will feel pretty much like Sunday. Maybe a couple degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1104 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) The slight high based thunderstorm threat continues through at least Tuesday morning. There is some evidence that a short wave will move through that could make things more interesting, but the moisture also starts to clear by then, so we`re still talking about single digit percentages. The bigger story is the heat. As the moisture clears out, so do the clouds. The full sunshine will bring temperatures into the mid 90s for several of our hotter cities, with mid 70s in the more coastal locations. That`s about 5-10 degrees above normal. Strong onshore winds will arrive in the afternoon and help cool the coast quickly. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday, just without the thunderstorm threat. By Thursday the Eastern Pacific trough that helped pump the moisture earlier in the week will arrive and bring a weak cold front, kicking off a late week cooling trend. A quick note on the tropics. As the El Nino Advisory continues, the National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 5 disturbances in the Central and Eastern Pacific. While these systems rarely impact California directly, the residual moisture can bring impacts similar to the monsoon with high based thunderstorms. Refer to Tropical Storm Fausto, the 2020 lightning outbreak and subsequent wildfires for a good example of this. Additionally, the ocean swell generated from these storms can bring hazardous beach conditions. While there is no immediate threat, there is a high chance for an active hurricane season in the Pacific and we`ll be watching closely for these impacts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 903 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Radar and satellite show isolated high based showers over the southern part of the forecast area; showers are moving northward. A few patches of coastal stratus and fog may develop tonight and Monday morning. Clouds will slow radiative cooling and redevelopment of coastal stratus and fog tonight and result in a hazy, partly to mostly cloudy sky Monday. Overall conditions favor VFR with the highest probability of LIFR-IFR along the immediate coastline. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Northwest to west wind 5 to 15 knots. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except patchy stratus and fog /LIFR- IFR/ nearby late tonight and Monday morning. Winds mainly varying from northwest to southwest 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 901 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue in the outer waters leading to hazardous conditions. Otherwise, expect light to moderate north-northwest winds with moderate northwest swell. Mainly northerly winds become fresh to strong mid to late week, which will have near gale force gusts. Seas will build in response, leading to overall hazardous conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Warming temperatures this week will cause fuel moistures to plummet. At the same time we are tracking monsoonal moisture moving across the area and any threat of dry thunderstorms. While dry thunderstorms have a 10% or less of development, any strike can start a fire. Not to mention, in and around active thunderstorms winds can become gusty and erratic. For more information on the thunderstorm threat, see discussion above. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

060 FXUS66 KOTX 130804 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 104 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions Okanogan valley through at least Tuesday. - Warming trend early this week. - Forecast uncertainty greatly increases into mid to late this week with potential for lightning. && .SYNOPSIS... Elevated fire weather conditions expected across portions of central and eastern Washington each day through the first half of the week. Summertime heat will make a return Monday through Wednesday. Forecast confidence significantly decreases later Wednesday through Thursday, though there is an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms in this timeframe. Dry weather will likely make a return by next weekend with above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Tuesday: An expansive ~600dm monsoonal ridge will remain anchored across the CONUS` midsection through much of this week, with longwave troughing off the northern Pacific coast impinging on portions of the Northwest and western Canada. For Monday and Tuesday, confidence is high in the ridge having greater influence on the sensible weather across the Inland NW with gradual height rises expected over the region. This will translate to summertime heat making a return after the small reprieve seen over the weekend. Expect daytime temps to climb into the low to mid 90s at elevations below 3000ft, with Tuesday likely being the warmer of the two days. This will push the HeatRisk level from Minor to Moderate over a sizable footprint of the forecast area. Otherwise, channeling of breezy southerly winds down the Okanogan Valley will lead to elevated and/or locally critical fire weather conditions as RHs will likely bottom out in the low to mid teens in the region again. Elsewhere, light to modest southwesterly breezes will bring typical elevated fire weather concerns between the western Columbia Basin and the eastern Cascades. While dry weather will still prevail, moisture advection on the backside of the ridge will cause PWAT anomalies to climb to around 150-200% by Tuesday across southeastern WA and the ID Panhandle. This will be an increasingly favorable environment for showers or even a few thunderstorms into Tuesday night. BUFKIT soundings indicate there will still be plenty of low- level dry air in place, though with some level of erosion over time, so may be more sprinkles or dry thunderstorms but cannot discount some minor rainfall reaching the ground. Wednesday through Sunday: Forecast uncertainty continues to be low around the midweek timeframe, particularly Thursday. Global ensembles continue to advertise the monsoonal ridge to the west and a troughing pattern over the eastern Pacific, though the finer details of how this evolves over time remains unclear. The deterministic models seem to be struggling with the phasing between a few distinct embedded shortwaves within this trough. Wednesday should be another hot day with chances for showers and thunderstorms across eastern Washington and the ID Panhandle. By Thursday however, should the trough remain generally offshore or just slide up the western flank of the ridge, we can expect even more heat than earlier in the week and drier overall weather. Should the trough manage to push further inland, temps will be much cooler while shower/storm coverage will likely be higher. NBM 75th percentile max Ts for the day are still pushing 100F for much of the Columbia Basin, while the 25th percentile struggles to crack 90F. Will continue to monitor closely as any thunderstorm activity will pose a fire threat. Beyond Thursday, the long range ensembles actually come into better agreement on the ridge strengthening with height rises returning to the Northwest. This should lead to drier weather making a return with summer heat becoming (re)established. /PMP && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Area-wide VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. Winds will remain light at the TAF sites, with prevailing winds 5kts or less overnight and less than 10kts through Monday. Light to modest northwest winds are possible at KEAT early Monday evening. Otherwise, BKN mid to high cloud cover is expected to continue clipping eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. A swath of middle to upper clouds over the east third of WA and ID are forecast to gradually thin, but occasional middle to high clouds will linger into Monday. Generally winds will be light, but some gusts are forecast for Monday afternoon, particularly near KOMK south toward KMWH, possible as far east at KGEG. Gusts up 15-20kts are possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 93 59 93 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 Coeur d`Alene 91 63 92 65 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 20 20 Pullman 89 56 88 57 89 55 / 0 0 10 10 10 10 Lewiston 96 67 95 66 97 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 10 Colville 91 55 93 59 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Sandpoint 90 59 90 61 91 59 / 0 0 0 10 30 20 Kellogg 90 61 89 61 89 59 / 0 0 20 10 20 20 Moses Lake 93 60 95 63 96 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Wenatchee 92 65 96 69 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Omak 93 61 98 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

642 FXUS66 KPDT 130520 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1020 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures today, with warmer temperatures this week. - Chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the Blue Mountains and Eastern Mountains through mid-week. - Elevated fire weather conditions persist due to dry lightning and potential low RH/breezy winds in other places. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite shows an area of mid to high clouds across the eastern portion of the region with radar returning light echoes with general spotty light rain. Rain will continue to move east with most of the area drying out through the rest of the afternoon. A shortwave off the coast of Washington state is bringing southwest flow with marginal mid-level moisture transportation. Going forward, a ridge situated over the lower-48 will continue to influence the synoptic pattern, along with a trough/low pressure system off-shore in the Pacific. Going through this week, monsoonal moisture transportation along with southwest flow from an offshore low will allow chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Blue Mountains and Eastern Mountains (up to 30% chance). Guidance is a bit shaky with how the off-shore flow will behave Tuesday onwards, with a spread of location and intensity amongst the clusters. Wednesday guidance shows about 54% of clusters bringing in a stronger shortwave, while 11% shows a much weaker trough. Uncertainty grows more going into Thursday with 17% of members bringing stronger trough and 27% bringing in a weaker system. How close the trough gets to shore will determine the amount of precipitation and strength (or number) of thunderstorms developing through the next few days. A closer/stronger trough will bring better chances of strong thunderstorms than the opposite scenario. Current RRFS guidance advertises multiple rounds of light to moderate showers with isolated chances of thunderstorms across Central to Northeastern Oregon Tuesday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday. Notably, this solution brings the low pressure system just offshore as the heavier thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon. Temperature wise, high temperatures across the Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley will rise to low to high 90s with the ridge suppressing. Temperatures remain somewhat fluctuant regarding confidence with the position/strength of the low Thursday through the rest of the week as meteograms show box-and-whisker 25th and 75th ranging 10-20 degrees. Overall confidence points to a warming trend through at least Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Monday. There is low confidence (200% or less) in smoke from area wildfires affecting CIGs/VSBYs at BDN/RDM. Winds will mainly be 10 kts or less, except at DLS, RDm and BDn which will have gusts to around 20 kts once again Monday afternoon/evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 56 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 84 60 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 86 57 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 87 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 58 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 81 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 87 52 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 90 57 94 61 / 0 0 0 10 DLS 87 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...77

494 FXUS65 KREV 130840 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 140 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Monsoonal moisture increases today, bringing wetter storms and potential flash flooding concerns through Tuesday. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible today. * A potential midweek break in storm activity is likely with storm chances persisting for Mono and Mineral. Winds increase for areas near the OR border. * Monsoonal moisture may return this weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION... Light rain showers along with smoke from wildfires in NE CA continue across portions of the CWA, with accumulations generally between a trace to 0.01 inches. This activity is expected to continue through the night per CAMs. The monsoonal moisture continues its way up as the upper high near the Four Corners area and a trough in the East Pacific make a moisture highway from Sonora and southern Arizona towards Nevada and California, and into eastern Oregon and Idaho. PWs in the latest sounding were around 0.82" and we are expecting those values to increase today to around 1-1.25 inches through Tuesday. So, yes we have the moisture for showers and thunderstorms but we need instability and a lifting mechanism to get what`s in the air on the ground. Smoke appears to continue around Reno and vicinity today. The HRRR smoke product shows more smoke pushed east towards Reno and the North Valleys this afternoon with subsided activity tonight, but the inversion may lock the smoke into the valleys again overnight reducing air quality. Models are showing instability increasing this afternoon mainly in areas near the Sierra, then more widespread on Tuesday. Although values are kind of low MUCAPE ranging between 200-500 J/kg, but increase to 500-1000 J/kg by Tuesday. Shear is around 25-30 kts both days. Based on the above we are expecting storms today and tomorrow with better coverage tomorrow due to the higher instability. Hi-res models are showing storms lifting off from Mono and Mineral, and then moving north quickly this afternoon. Brief periods of heavy rain will be likely with any storm, and if any of them start to train or get anchored to a mountain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas south of I-80 between western Mineral Co and the Sierra crest. The quick motion of these storm may also result in dry thunderstorms that could ignite new fires outside of rain cores or areas north of I-80. The storms on Tuesday will be slower and have greater coverage. So, the risk for heavy rain and potential flash flooding also expands to all areas south of I-80. An upper trough just off the coast from the PacNW also starts to move inland and this may start to push the moisture east by Tuesday evening, but TBD on this as models are starting to diverge with the position of the low pressure system. This model divergence further increases Wednesday and beyond. However, the trend we are seeing is for drier conditions across much of the region except for Mono and Mineral counties which keep low POPs generally below 15% through Friday. Otherwise, the rest of the area remains dry with POPs below 5%. Temperatures will rise with less cloud cover and winds increase due to the potential approach of that upper trough. So, expect typical west breezes returning for the second half of the week, and some a bit more enhanced for mountain ridges and over NE CA with gusts having a 20-50% of exceeding 35 mph. Even though models are disagreeing which brings us to have very low confidence of the out come for this weekend and next week, we may have another plume of monsoonal moisture during the aforementioned timeframe. This would potentially bring cooler and wetter conditions back, but we`ll have to wait and see how the models trend over the rest of this work week. -HC && .AVIATION... Light SHRA today with a 15-40% chance of TSRA this afternoon, especially for TAF sites south of US-50 including KMEV, KHTH, KBAN and KMMH. Gusty winds up to 35 kts are possible near SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, winds will be south to southwest 7-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Shower and storm coverage increases Tuesday with similar TSRA potential to Monday on most sites after 18Z. Gusty outflow winds, heavier rain showers, small hail and terrain obscuration continue to be the main concerns. -HRICH/HC && .FIRE WEATHER... A monsoonal moisture surge continues through Tuesday ushering shower and thunderstorm chances back into the Eastern Sierra and western Nevada. Storms trend wetter today and Tuesday, increasing the potential for wetting rainfall. However, storm motions will remain on the faster side today, so new lightning ignitions are possible away from main rain cores. Storms will be slower on Tuesday limiting the fire risk. Gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph could also accompany thunderstorms. Moreover, an increasingly unstable environment on today and Tuesday will be more favorable for deeper vertical plume growth/more active plume behavior on any new/existing fires that become intense. Winds also appear to increase midweek with the approach of an upper trough leading to brief periods of elevated to critical conditions over portions of NE CA, especially over mountain ridges due to gusts to 30-35 mph, and a 20-50% chance of exceeding 35 mph. HRICH/Salas/HC && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

291 FXUS66 KSTO 121912 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1212 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal moisture bring showers and thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week with potential for Valley rain today and through mid-week. - Warming trend on Sunday into next week with widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Tuesday. - Monsoonal moisture and thunderstorm chances return next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Clouds, light rain, and virga can be seen passing over interior NorCal today; temperatures are slightly cooler than yesterday due to the cloud cover, though temperatures remain near normal for the time of year. Warmer temperatures return Monday and widespread triple digit temperatures are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the majority of the Valley covered by Moderate HeatRisk (hottest in the northern Sacramento Valley). Relatively cool overnight temperatures keep conditions in the Moderate range, especially near the Delta, as daily onshore winds/Delta breeze gust up to 15 to 25 mph each day. Beyond the high temperatures, our biggest area of concern will be monitoring the push of monsoonal moisture moving into our area today and through mid-week. With that push comes chances for showers and thunderstorm across our area each day, with Monday and Tuesday as our widest impact days. There remains uncertainty regarding how widespread outside of the mountains the thunderstorms will occur, with limiting factors including lack of available CAPE in the morning hours and antecedent cloud cover. Best chances for thunderstorms today are south of I-80 along the Sierra (around 10-20%), increasing to 15-30% Monday and Tuesday. Chances on Wednesday and Thursday are more or less zero everywhere now, though chances return with a new push of monsoonal moisture on Friday and into next weekend. The main impacts with any developed storm will be lightning and new fire starts, gusty outflow winds, and brief rain showers. Overall, we are expecting daily elevated fire weather conditions today through Tuesday with highest impacts Monday and Tuesday. Be sure to check back in with the forecast and have multiple ways to receive information, especially those with mountain travel and recreation plans. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts from south to southwest around 10 to 20 kts in the Sacramento Valley, Delta and Sierra Crest until 03Z Monday but lingering Delta Breezy up to 15 kts until 09Z Monday. Mid to high level clouds continue periods of BKN to OVC conditions around 10-25 kft with isolated showers mainly over the foothills and Sierra and a slight chance (5-10%) of thunderstorms over the Sierra south of I-80 from 21Z Sunday to 03Z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

656 FXUS65 KMSO 130748 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 148 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - The warmest temperatures continue today. There is an elevated heat risk for those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling or hydration. - A surge of monsoon moisture will bring clouds, showers, and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. - Chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms will continue through Friday The ridge of high pressure that brought hot, dry conditions to the Northern Rockies will continue east today. Moist southwesterly flow will replace the ridge. Although cloud cover and chances for precipitation will increase this week, the Northern Rockies will experience another day of temperatures about 10 degrees above normal today. The rest of the week will remain hot, about 5 degrees above normal. So, today expect more 90s for western Montana and 100s for the lower valleys of western Idaho. Daytime highs drop into the upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday for western Montana, upper 90s- 100s for western Idaho. The biggest change this week will be the introduction of much more moisture to the atmosphere. As the upper levels of the atmosphere will moisten first, profiles show a dry lower atmosphere for this evening. This setup is ideal for thunderstorms producing dry, erratic outflow winds and will primarily affect southwest Montana and Lemhi County. Storms that do develop will be capable of 30-40 mph gusts. There will be a slight chance (5-10%) for some storms to become severe (about 60 mph gusts) along and just west of the Continental Divide including Silver Bow, Deer Lodge, and Powell counties. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the atmosphere will moisten enough for more rain to reach the ground. However, the erratic wind gusts will remain. The shower and thunderstorm coverage will become much more widespread, covering much of western Montana. Areas with the highest risk will be locations along I-90 and east of Highway 93 in west-central and southwest Montana, as well as Lemhi County. The threat for severe thunderstorms increases on Wednesday and Thursday. If you have outdoor plans through mid-week, please plan accordingly. && .AVIATION...A ridge of high-pressure sliding east will maintain predominantly VFR conditions across western Montana and north- central Idaho terminals through Monday morning. High density altitude remains a primary concern for all regional airports due to persistent unseasonably hot valley temperatures. There will be chances for thunderstorms producing gusty, erratic outflow winds (25-35 kts), primarily affecting KBTM and KSMN late this afternoon and early evening (after about 13/2200Z). There is about a 5-10% chance that KBTM could experience a severe storm where gusts exceed 50 kts. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

891 FXUS65 KBOI 130904 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 304 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for the Snake Plain and SW Idaho Highlands through this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms increase area-wide tonight and Tuesday, then chances remaining over higher terrain Wednesday through next weekend. - Tuesday and Wednesday storms will be capable of heavy downpours, potentially affecting steep terrain and burn scars. - Hot temperatures continue this week and coming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Mid and upper level monsoon moisture is streaming in from the south- southwest today. As the atmosphere continues to moisten, virga will transition to isolated rain showers this morning and afternoon across E Oregon and the higher terrain of west-central Idaho. Temperatures will once again be hot today, supporting weak instability this afternoon and a 10% chance of thunderstorms developing near the OR-NV border. Both showers and thunderstorms will be capable of localized outflows up to 35 mph during peak daytime mixing hours. Low levels will moisten further late tonight and Tuesday, expanding rain shower coverage across much of the area by Tuesday. Precipitation chances will be highest (30-40%) across far E Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho, with lower chances (5-15%) across the Snake Plain. Instability will become greater Tuesday due to the higher moisture content, as PWATs peak at 1.10" to 1.20" (99th percentile). As a result, hi-res models signify isolated thunderstorm development for the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow winds to 25-45 mph Tuesday afternoon/evening, along with localized heavy downpours. Depending on the rainfall path and duration, downpours could lead to a minor flood risk in steep terrain and across newer burn scars. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday due to the thickening of cloud cover and increase in shower activity. Beginning Wednesday, a Pacific trough to the west will alter the path of the monsoon moisture, slightly lowering PWAT values across the region from west to east. This will reduce the chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the forecast area, but a 20% chance over the higher terrain of SW Idaho will remain a concern. High temperatures will rebound by a few degrees as cloud cover/showers thin out. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Hot, southerly flow will persist over E Oregon and SW Idaho Thursday through early next week, with shower/thunderstorm chances currently favoring the higher terrain each afternoon and evening. Models have a poor handle on the extent of precipitation over the area, but the continuation of hot south-southwesterly flow aloft will promote temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across lower elevations for the remainder of the forecast period. Heat Risk will hover in the Moderate category, affecting most individuals sensitive to heat. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1203 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026 VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Isolated showers (and 10% chance of PM thunderstorms in east Oregon) producing gusty erratic winds up to 30 kt. Shower coverage increasing late tonight into Tuesday. Areas of smoke, especially near KBKE. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt this morning. Then, SW to NW 5-15 kt this afternoon, with localized gusts to 20-30 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. A 5% chance of light rain today, then a 15% chance of rain showers beginning early Tuesday. Surface winds: SE-S 4-10 kt, shifting to NW-N 5-12 kt late this morning. Afternoon gusts around 20 kt. High density altitude due to heat. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ012-014. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ016-030. OR...Heat Advisory from 2 PM MDT /1 PM PDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH

950 FXUS65 KLKN 130723 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1223 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Eastern Nevada starting Monday * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong upper level high pressure center is setting up over the Plains and is expected to funnel monsoonal moisture into the Southwest for at least the next several days. Moisture is already surging into the state as scattered shower activity over western and northwestern NV can be seen on satellite and radar early Monday morning. Expectation is for showers and convective activity to spread slowly from south to north today, with storm activity being a mix of wet and dry. Moisture continues its northward advection into northern Nevada by Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. By Tuesday, precipitable water values are expected to be 200% to 250% of standard, and the most widespread shower coverage of the forecast is expected as a result. A somewhat drier air mass is expected to enter Nevada from the west for Wednesday through Friday, but it will still be anomalously wet and capable of supporting showers, especially in eastern Nevada. Given both the excessive atmospheric moisture available and the potential for showers to impact the same areas day after day, a marginal risk for excessive rainfall is in place for Tuesday through Thursday. Atmospheric moisture and associated storm potential is currently expected to restrengthen for the weekend, but model variance regarding upper level steering flow means the location of the strongest moisture is still in flux. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in monsoonal moisture this week, but moderate confidence in showers as described above. Moderate confidence in excessive rainfall potential Tuesday through Thursday. No changes were made to base NBM output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast at all terminals through early Tuesday morning. Afternoon wind gusts at KWMC, KBAM, KELY, and KTPH will range 18-22KTs. -TSRA is possible at KELY Monday afternoon and evening. CIGs and VIS will be intermittently reduced in and around TS activity leading to momentary MVFR and IFR conditions. Winds in and around TS activity will be briefly gusty and erratic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Beginning Monday monsoonal moisture will work its way up into central and northern NV and be in place through this week. Monday there exists potential for dry thunderstorms across fire weather zones 437/424/438/469/470, while fire weather zones 425/426/427 will see more of a mix of wet and dry storm activity. By Tuesday the risk of mainly dry storms diminishes greatly as a big push of moisture reaches northern NV. This setup looks to be in place through at least Saturday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033. && $$ DISCUSSION...94/99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99