837 FXUS66 KSEW 120358 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 758 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river will produce periods of moderate to heavy rain through Monday night. This rain, along with high snow levels, will bring rises on many area rivers. Flooding is expected on the Skokomish River. Strong high pressure then builds into the region by the middle of the week, bringing a stretch of dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...The next reinforcing impulse into our atmospheric river is reaching the coastline this afternoon and will continue to spread heavier rainfall, low clouds, and poor visibility into the region tonight through early Monday. The heaviest rainfall is still expected to be aligned from the Olympics northwest into the North Cascades. See the hydrology section for addition detail regarding this rain and river flooding concerns. Otherwise, the region remains wet and rather mild in the reinforcing southwest flow aloft. Increasing winds with gusts to 35 mph will continue through early Monday for portions of the coast and the northern interior locations. High pressure begins to build to our south and further amplify through the day Monday, beginning to shift the high pressure over the region and move the precipitation back north of the area. Expect primarily dry conditions Tuesday, though abundant low level moisture will likely maintain cloudy and mild conditions into Tuesday. With the mild temperatures, a few locations could approach record highs for the date on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Ensemble guidance strongly favors the region remaining under the influence of a high amplitude ridge of high pressure for the second half of the week and potentially beyond. A weak front may approach attempt to test the ridge and move into the region Wednesday, but this will likely not do much other than bring some increased mixing and mid level clouds as it approaches the coastline. Morning fog (and the potential for afternoon fog...) remains the next concern for midweek onward in the week as relatively light flow sets up beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion under the high pressure. While the current forecast favors a drying air mass and fewer clouds late in the week, this would be the biggest uncertainty in the long term if the fog is more persistent. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions look to continue through next weekend and into the start of the following week. && .AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft as a frontal system passes through with rain showers this evening. Low ceilings/visibilities continue as the rain pushes through the terminals this evening, with localized IFR/LIFR conditions. Some improvement to MVFR has taken place this evening, with MVFR expected to continue into Monday (higher probabilities for IFR/LIFR from the Olympics westward to the coast). Gusty winds along the coast and PAE northwards, where gusts 25-30 kt are likely. As for the other terminals, breezy conditions are expected with gusts to 20 kt. KSEA...Brief break in between shower bands this evening, with a slight chance of IFR conditions remaining with the next round of showers pushing through 06Z. MVFR ceilings likely prevailing late tonight into Monday. Increased S/SE winds this evening, continuing through early Monday morning with sustained speeds of 8-12 kt and gusts to 20 kt. 29/HPR && .MARINE...A weather system will stall over the waters through Monday, bringing increased winds and waves. The strongest winds are still on track to be along the coastal waters, West Strait, East Strait, Northern Interior Waters, and Admiralty Inlet. Winds will peak tonight into early Monday morning, for which gale winds are expected. Seas will continue building today into Monday morning to 15-18 ft. Conditions will begin to ease throughout the day on Monday with seas hovering around 9-10 ft on Tuesday. High pressure will begin to build over area waters Tuesday morning and will become the prevailing feature throughout the week. This will increase the threat for fog development as high pressure persists over the waters. A weak frontal system will move over the waters on Wednesday, increasing waves to 10-13 ft, before they decrease below 10 ft Wednesday night. Seas look to remain below 10 ft late in the week. 29 && .HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River continues to rise, and it is expected to reach flood stage later tonight before cresting within minor (possibly moderate) flood stage Monday. With the heaviest rainfall still aligned across the Olympics and the North Cascades, these areas will continue to see the highest potential for flooding. The next surge of moisture arrives late this evening, and additional rainfall amounts in the favored locations will add another 2 to 4 inches with snow levels holding high near 7000 ft. Will need to continue to closely watch the Skagit River for potential minor flooding in the next day or two. Once the moisture pushes north of the local area late Monday, the region is expected to be dry through the subsequent seven days with no additional flooding expected. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar. Gale Warning until 6 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$

179 FXUS66 KPQR 112230 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A slow-moving frontal boundary will bring periods of light rain to southwest Washington and along the far north Oregon coast now through Monday morning, while the rest of western Oregon stays dry with light winds and high clouds. A very strong high pressure system will strengthen and remain anchored over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday through next weekend. This will result in a prolonged stretch of dry weather with abnormally mild temperatures and light winds. Expect at least 6 to 8 consecutive dry days in a row. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday night...Aside from periods of light rain over portions of southwest Washington and the far north Oregon coast through Sunday night/Monday morning, the weather forecast over the next 6 to 8 days is dominated by a prolonged stretch of dry and calm conditions with above normal temperatures for this time of year. The primary cause of these conditions is an anomalously strong high pressure system that models and their ensembles continue to show a broad area of high pressure anchored over the Pac NW/ NE Pacific through this week and into next weekend. Models also show that the ridge will amplify over western OR and WA Monday through Wednesday. The overall synoptic patters has a well established, upper level ridge that transitions into a Rex Blocking pattern towards the latter part of this week. It should be noted that models are showing the ridge flattening as Alaskan lows ride the crest of the ridge, but these systems are not expected to break the overall blocking pattern. 500 mb heights look to peak near 590 dm over northern California and southern Oregon, and near 585 dm over northern Oregon. Note these values are around the 95th-99th percentile compared to climatology, which means high pressure of this magnitude is quite rare this time of year, especially given the extended duration. At this time, it is not clear exactly when the ridge/blocking pattern will break down and precipitation will return, however some model guidance is suggesting that a pattern change could occur around Jan. 21-23 with precipitation coming back into the conversation. Still, confidence on this occurring is very low given that we are looking at model solutions around 10 days in the future. Also, blocking patterns (via forecaster pattern recognition) will typically last 7-8 days or 10-11 days. Until then, expect more of the same each day with varying degrees of cloud cover, light winds, and mild temperatures with afternoon highs running anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year as daytime highs are expected to be generally in the 50s to 60s. The NBM suggests highs will range in the low to upper 50s lowlands, mid 50s to mid 60s in the Cascade foothills and low to upper 50s along the Coast. Currently, the warmest days in the forecast are Thursday and Friday. The coolest daytime temperatures will occur in portions of the central and southern Willamette Valley where chances for fog and low clouds each night/morning may limit daytime heating and keep highs closer to 50 degrees. The reason the Oregon Cascade foothills will likely be warmest is due to a combination of more hours of sunshine and the fact that these elevations are high enough to poke above a strong low-level temperature inversion that will remain in place through the week, thus tapping into relatively warmer air aloft. Locations such as Oakridge will feel more spring like rather than typical mid January daytime highs. It should be noted that a high pressure aloft will result in a rather stable atmosphere IE...minimal air mixing and movement. This will lead to the potential for degraded air quality as this pattern is expected to persist. So, prolonged multi-day stretch of very low vertical mixing heights, which helps trap air pollutants near the surface, will bring about stagnant air. As a result of these conditions, we have issued a Air Stagnation Advisory for the majority of the Willamette Valley and it could expand as the week progresses. State air quality agencies highly recommend that no outdoor burning occur and that residential wood burning devices be limited as much as possible. According to state air quality agencies, prolonged periods of stagnant air can hold pollutants close to the ground where people live and breathe. Check with your local burn agency for any current restrictions in your area. Also, people with respiratory illness should follow their physician`s advice for dealing with high levels of air pollution during periods of stagnant air, especially if an Air Quality Alert is in effect for your area. To see if an Air Quality Alert is in effect for your area, go to www.weather.gov/pqr and left- click your location on the homepage map display. Alternatively, you could also type your location into the search bar found on the top-left hand side of the homepage. From there, you will see an Air Quality Alert listed at the top if one is in effect for your location; you can click the alert to read more details if applicable. You can also find the current Air Quality Index (AQI) for your location at www.airnow.gov. /42-23 && .AVIATION...This afternoon VFR conditions currently prevail across the region outside of KAST where the southern edge of a frontal boundary has kept occasional light rain and MVFR CIGs in place. Headed through tonight the primary flight impacts will be associated with the potential for patchy fog within portions of the Willamette Valley and Tualatin valley. Confidence is still rather low regarding exactly where and when fog will develop - if it even develops at all. Similar to the past couple of nights, broken high clouds will largely work against widespread fog formation, but this setup has generally resulted in patchy fog and fluctuating visibilities at KHIO, KSLE, and KUAO. KHIO has the highest change for fog of any TAF site, with probabilities reaching 30-50% for surface visibilities below 1 SM between 09-18z Monday. Probabilities for fog range between 15-30% at KUAO, KSLE and KEUG. We`ll also have to watch a push of low clouds from the west at KONP which would degrade flight conditions after 10-14z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are favored to persist at KPDX and KTTD. It`s worth noting just outside of the TAF period (Monday night into Tuesday morning) probabilities for fog and LIFR/IFR conditions across the inland valleys increase significantly. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the TAF period as high clouds stream overhead. Light ESE winds continue as well helping to prevent any fog formation locally. -99 && .MARINE..A long period southwesterly swell has begun to arrive this afternoon likely pushing seas up into the 14 to 17 ft range for the overnight hours and much of Monday, primarily north of Cape Foulweather. However, seas will most likely be highest over the northern waters to the north of Cape Falcon where southerly winds will be strongest, gusting as high as 28-35 kt. Note gale force wind gusts of 34-35 kt are expected to be isolated and infrequent tonight, but still something to keep in mind before winds slowly decrease on Monday. Given the expected sea state, a Hazardous Seas Warning remains in effect for all marine zones through Monday afternoon north of Cape Foulweather in additional to PZZ273 through this evening. Seas are expected to peak near 15-16 ft over the main channel of the Columbia River Bar as well. Once we get into Monday night seas gradually decrease as we transition to a brief period Small Craft Advisory conditions. By Tuesday afternoon confidence is moderate to high seas fall back into the 8-9 ft range across the inner and outer waters. Headed through the rest of the week, a ridge of high pressure amplifies overhead resulting in rather calm conditions by winter-time standards. Come Friday, seas likely bottom out around 4-6ft at 11-12 seconds. -99 && .BEACH HAZARDS...There is a high threat of sneaker waves at the coast through Monday afternoon due to a continued long- period southwesterly to westerly swell. Sneaker waves can create potentially life-threatening conditions as waves may run farther up the beach than expected. These waves can easily catch people off guard and cause beachgoers to be knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold ocean waters. Never turn your back to the ocean. Caution should be used when in or near the water, and those with children should be especially watchful. Sneaker waves can lift or roll large, heavy logs or rocks which can lead to serious death or injury. Keep off rocks, logs, and jetties near the waterline on beaches. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ109>111- 114>118. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ205-206. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ251-252-271- 272. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ251-252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ253. Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ273. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

429 FXUS66 KMFR 120000 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 400 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation discussion... && .AVIATION...12/00Z TAFs...Clearing for the Klamath Falls area and Umpqua Basin at Roseburg occured near 18-19Z. The Rogue Valley had clearing last around 21Z. This is expected for Monday morning as well. Freezing fog will return again in the Rogue Valley at Medford first, dropping to MVFR around 06-07Z and IFR/LIFR by 10Z. IFR/LIFR conditions will come to the Klamath Falls area by 9Z-11Z as well. Although temperatures won`t fall to freezing tonight in the Umpqua Basin near Roseburg, dense fog will be possible, especially early tomorrow morning. Outside of the valleys, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with some scattered high level clouds streaming through the region. Coastal locations will remain VFR, although some fog from the Coquille Basin is forecast to drift into Coos Bay and briefly impact North Bend for a few hours tonight around 12Z. /BR-y/Hermansen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026/ DISCUSSION...A stable upper ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western United States remains the guiding influence in conditions across northern California and southern Oregon. This ridge looks to strengthen about midweek, with NBM probabilistic guidance giving Medford a 60% chance to see daytime highs above 60 degrees on Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions and above seasonal temperatures across the area remain in the forecast through the next week. This stability supports air quality concerns continuing for low- lying areas in through at last Friday morning and possibly into next weekend. An Air Quality Advisory remains in place through the week to describe these hazardous conditions. Cool overnight temperatures is keeping fog in the forecast for some low-lying areas. North Bend briefly saw fog on early Sunday morning, but forecast offshore flow should limit those conditions in the week ahead. Stable conditions will keep fog in the forecast for west side valleys, with freezing fog developing start the week. Midweek warming may bring overnight lows in the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys up above freezing temperatures. The Umpqua Valley remains above freezing temperatures and out of a Freezing Fog Advisory for early Monday morning. Northerly flow over the Upper Klamath Lake brought fog into areas around Klamath Falls this morning. With that pattern staying in the forecast, these areas have been added to the Freezing Fog Advisory. Temperatures may ease slightly into next week as deterministic imagery shows the ridge developing a negative tilt that would decrease pressure over the area. Beyond that, ensemble guidance for the ECMWF and GFS models keep a ~60% chance for activity developing some time in the 10-12 day range. Long-term models of the upper air pattern fall short of showing any activity, so details about those possibilities remain vague. -TAD MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, January 11, 2026...Steep seas will persist for most areas from Gold Beach northward through this afternoon, then expand to all areas due to an increasing long period swell building into the waters today. Breezy south winds will diminish this evening into Monday, gradually becoming northerly later Monday into Tuesday. Conditions improve Tuesday as seas lower to below 10 ft by early Tuesday morning. Another long period swell (peaking around 10 ft at 15 seconds) builds into the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday, so seas will remain swell dominated through early Wednesday. Meanwhile, northerly winds increase on Wednesday as the pattern transitions to a summer-like pattern under a thermal trough that lingers through the latter half of the week. Swell gradually subsides Thursday, but seas transition to wind wave dominated seas under gusty north winds. Expect another round of steep to very steep and hazardous seas through the latter half of the week. /BR-y BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, January 11, 2026...Long period swell is building into the waters today, resulting in a moderate risk of sneaker waves. This higher period swell will persist through Monday afternoon before diminishing into Monday evening. Guidance shows the potential for another sneaker wave threat beginning late Tuesday night and persisting through the day Wednesday. If you plan to visit area beaches today into Monday or late Tuesday into Wednesday, please be aware of the dangers sneaker waves pose to beach goers. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. NEVER turn your back on the ocean! /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022. Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031. Freezing Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PST Monday for ORZ024- 026-029. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

262 FXUS66 KEKA 112004 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1204 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure is building into the area bringing warmer temperatures and dry weather through the week. Some of the more protected northern valleys will see night and morning low clouds and fog along more limited warming. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains fairly flat over the west coast this afternoon. As the inversion strengthens the inland valleys that saw fog this morning are warming more slowly. The ridges are starting to see temperatures warm with some areas running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. This pattern is expected to continue to through the work week. There will be some subtle changes. In the valleys the inversion may get slightly shallower, but the valleys are still expected to have RH reach 90 to 100 percent each night. This may also create poor air quality with any locally generated pollutants getting trapped. The valleys, especially the ones seeing fog, will likely struggle to warm up. So far these have been only reaching around 50 degrees. Over the week they will likely get slightly warmer, but there is high uncertainty on how much warmer they will get. Have continue to keep the forecast well below the NBM in these valleys. The higher terrain will likely see low RH both overnight and in the afternoons. For example Backbone raws in Trinity county at 4600 feet is showing a 10 percent RH this morning. The dry air at the higher elevations is generally expected to persist through the week. These higher elevations will also see warmer temperatures, likely in the 60s or even near 70 by the middle of the week. The next chance for rain is not until the 21st or 22nd of January. This is a long ways out, but the NBM has remained consistent in showing this since yesterday. MKK && .AVIATION...The period of consistent VFR is potentially coming to an end. While daylight hours are expected to remain VFR with offshore light winds for the North Coast, some high resolution models are showing a return of the marine layer with its accompanying stratus/fog. Confidence on this is less than 50% (for the HREF and TAF LAMP) so the forecast is remaining on the optimistic side for flying, yet the trend has been slowly hinting on fog settling in the KCEC area first around 05-07Z before expanding southward to KACV by 08Z-10Z. The NAMNest and ARW show the arrival of stratus at 06Z so a tempo has been issued for an hour before and after this time. Inland areas are also showing fog developing late tonight around 12Z onward as cold air drains into the valleys. Winds will remain light and variable inland through the TAF period due to high pressure aloft. If the fog does not form over the coast, expected another night of calm winds and VFR conditions. && .MARINE...A long period westerly swell arrives to the coastal waters today. Observations from the Southern Oregon coast show this swell arriving midday, before peaking at around 12 ft at 16 seconds by Monday morning. The swell will not be very steep, yet swell heights over 10 feet will pose a danger to mariners operating smaller vessels leading to an advisory for hazardous seas for all waters through Monday evening. Light to moderate northerlies return on Monday and increase by Tue. The forecast probability of gusts over 25 kts is become increasingly likely (over 70% chance) Tue into Wed, yet there is a lesser probability (~30%) for gale gusts > 34 kt, mostly over the outer waters and around Cape Mendocino. Elevated steep northerly waves in combination with a decaying westerly swell will continue on Thu and seas should remain hazardous for small craft. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Today, another long period westerly swell originating from a low near the Aleutians finally fills in this afternoon at around 7 ft at 20 seconds before peaks around 12 ft at 16 seconds. Calm winds, and sunny skies along the coast could lead to a false sense of safety while at the beach for this period. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for this moderate increase in the sneaker wave threat late this morning through Monday afternoon. Stay much farther back from the ocean and avoid steep beaches and jetties. Remember, never turn your back on the ocean! DS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Monday afternoon for CAZ101- 103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PST Monday for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

137 FXUS66 KMTR 120234 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 634 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight conditions - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches continue throughout the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 631 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 While Winter is certainly our busy season, the breaks between storms bring some of the nicest weather of the year. Clear skies, mild afternoon temperatures, and gentle winds. The 00Z sounding found mostly dry air below the persistent humid layer above 20,000 feet. Light offshore winds will continue to limit fog formation overnight despite the cold temperatures. Clusters now show very high confidence in this ridging pattern surviving through the 20th. Starting on the 21st, we finally see some zonal or even weak troughing solutions, but more than 70% of the superensemble members still keep riding at 500 mb. In other words, the next chance for any rain is early next week, but there`s a good chance the dry weather lasts even longer. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (This evening through Monday) Another night of chilly weather is in the forecast as persistent ridging keeps the weather quiet for us. The deterministic NBM is improving in terms of the forecasted low temperatures in comparison to the previous few days. Temperatures this morning trended a few degrees cooler than even the adjusted forecast had. Given this, decided to blend in this morning`s observed temperatures with the deterministic NBM to pull tomorrow morning`s temperatures down slightly. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the North Bay Valleys, East Bay Interior Valleys, the southern Salinas Valley, and interior San Benito County from 1AM-9AM PST Monday morning. Not a fan of chilly mornings? Temperatures warm into the low 60s across the Bay Area, 60s across the Central Coast, and even some mid to upper 60s in the Salinas Valley. Winds remain light and offshore with locally gusty conditions along the coastline. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. If you are going to the beach, use caution and never turn your back on the ocean! There is an elevated risk of sneaker waves, rip currents, and larger shore break. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) Colder mornings continue through at least Tuesday. We`ll have to see how the current blend does for low temperatures on Monday but a similar blend may be needed for Tuesday morning. This would most likely necessitate a few Cold Weather Advisories for the coldest portions of the interior but they would not be widespread by any means. Daytime temperatures warm throughout the week and will be in the mid to upper 60s by mid to late week. The Salinas Valley looks to be one of the warmer locations with highs reaching the low to mid 70s this week. Morning temperatures warm as well with a return of more seasonal low temperatures in the 40s expected. Winds remain light and offshore through the week as upper level ridging continues. Wondering when our next chance for rain will be? Models are hinting some rain may be possible towards the end of the month starting the 21st/22nd but models are not in agreement as to the placement of ridging vs troughing over the West Coast. Just know that rain is currently unlikely to return through at least mid-month with long range guidance indicating some increasing potential by late month. While the Beach Hazards Statement is set to expire Monday evening, hazardous beach conditions are likely to return mid to late week. Another round of long period swell will result in an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents Wednesday into the end of the week. If you`re heading to the beach keep this in mind and make sure you never turn your back on the ocean. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 342 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 VFR. Broad ridge of high pressure resulting in clear conditions across the board through this TAF period. The exception being isolated dense FG invof KSTS overnight through sunrise Monday. Winds generally light and variable. Some hints at Tule fog moving in through the interior East Bay overnight tonight, but not enough confidence to include in TAFs at this time. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Clear conditions anticipated through the TAF period. NE wind component through the morning hours, but very likely to stay under 7-8 kts. Gradually becoming N/NW in the late afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Clear skies with light and variable winds. SE drainage flow out of the Salinas Valley during the mornings. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 342 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through 6PM PST Monday for all Pacific Coast beaches. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Monday for CAZ506- 510-516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

919 FXUS66 KOTX 112242 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 242 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry mix for the Cascade valleys, northern mountain valleys, and high mountain snow through Monday. - Dry and stagnant pattern being established by the middle of the week. && .SYNOPSIS... Chances for a wintry mix and high mountain snow in the Cascades and the northern counties. Warmer air pushes up into tonight with a transition to rain, except potentially the Methow Valley hanging onto to cold air and seeing light freezing rain. Thereafter dry and relatively mild weather is forecast through the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday night: A weak system moves across the area this period, with limited rain and high mountain snow chances and a localized wintry mix. The primary system moves across the region tonight into early Monday AM, precipitation chances highest near the3 Cascades. The higher risk will be toward the crest. Snow levels between 3500-7500 feet (lowest near the Idaho Panhandle) will rise to around 5000-8000 feet by Monday morning. So most areas will see rain. The exception will be near the Methow Valley where temperatures hovering near to slightly below freezing. This will bring the potential for mix of rain, snow and freezing rain. At the 2 PM hour temperatures in the mid-30s but as these fall tonight the potential for that freezing rain expands. Overall the risk for significant amounts of ice is low, with HREF showing the potential for measurable ice (0.01 inches) at 5-20%, slightly higher west of Winthrop at 30-45%. Some could also be mixed in near the sheltered valleys around northeast WA and north ID, but even there the risk of much is low. Overall elsewhere passing rain chances will impact the northern two-third of the CWA this afternoon into early overnight. Then chances start to retreat to mainly the mountains zones heading into Monday, where it continues to wane Monday night into Tuesday AM. A little bit of breeziness is expected Monday, with gust of 10-20 mph in the sheltered areas of the Columbia Basin. Look for patchy fog tonight mostly in sheltered valleys, then a better potential develops late Monday night into Tuesday AM as a ridge builds in. Tuesday to Sunday: A ridge dominates the weather pattern most of this period, leading to largely dry conditions. One shortwave dampened the ridge heading into Wednesday/Wednesday night but it mainly brings middle to high clouds. Meanwhile a mix of sun and clouds is expected elsewhere, with patchy fog for the overnight and morning hours as the ridge stays in control. That will be the most challenging part of the forecast: stratus and fog development. If it gets established under the ridge it would be more difficult to scour out. We will have to keep thinking about an air stagnation advisory, with the ridge in place through next weekend. Temperatures will be above normal above the stratus deck, but temperatures in the valleys may see vary little diurnal fluctuation under a blanket of low clouds. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Expect generally VFR conditions at TAF sites. Moisture will top over the Cascades with 30% chance for a rain/snow mix at EAT early today and this evening and the added moisture will carry the potential for MVFR ceilings with precipitation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions persist for KPUW/KLWS/KMWH. Moderate confidence that VFR conditions continue for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Low confidence in the ceiling forecast for KEAT due to the potential for light precipitation to moisten the boundary layer. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 35 46 36 48 28 45 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 35 46 36 48 29 45 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 35 48 36 50 34 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 37 53 36 52 34 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 30 43 32 45 30 44 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 42 36 45 30 42 / 30 30 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 38 46 39 50 34 49 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 33 50 35 48 29 45 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 35 49 41 48 36 48 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 34 44 36 45 34 43 / 40 30 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

506 FXUS66 KPDT 112236 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 236 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion DISCUSSION... Breezy to windy conditions will persist through the Blue Mountain Foothills through Monday. Especially windy conditions will persist across the I-84 corridor through the Grande Ronde Valley. Here, the pressure gradient between MEH and BKE remains strong (6 mb or higher). The gradient strengthens overnight based on the NAM and SREF. The Wind advisory for this area has been extended another 24 hours until noon Monday coinciding with a 90th percentile of the NBM members wind forecast. The WA Cascades are brushing a gradient of an atmospheric river impinging on the PAC NW/BC region, resulting in showers lingering Today , Tonight followed by rapidly decreasing confidence through Monday as the entire area then begins a dry period with high certainty (90%) by Monday night. For the rest of the week, a stagnant pattern is apparently setting up as models intensify the 500 mb ridge expanding across the interior NW into the Pacific NW around Tuesday and lingering through the week. A result will be that mean mixing heights (by the NBM) limited to under 1500 ft during the peak heating during peak heating each day, while transport winds also remain limited to 10 mph or less. The stagnant pattern typically leads of overnight valley dense fog, and or freezing fog, and areas of lowland fog was added/maintained in the weather grids for the Tuesday through Friday period as the strong inversions set up overnights, including the Yakima Valley and Lower Columbia Basin. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a trend toward near normal precipitation and a 40 to 50% confidence for above normal temperatures. AVIATION...00z TAFs...VFR conditions expected. Light winds mainly out of the S/SW will prevail, along with bkn-ovc mid-level cigs. 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 35 57 34 52 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 38 56 39 53 / 10 10 0 0 PSC 34 56 35 49 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 34 51 36 52 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 33 55 32 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 33 48 36 49 / 30 20 0 0 RDM 28 56 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 32 47 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 30 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 37 52 35 51 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until noon PST Monday for ORZ049. WA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...74

113 FXUS65 KREV 112046 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1246 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather prevails through next weekend with near to above normal temperatures this week. * Light winds and strengthening inversions will create hazy skies and air quality reductions this week. * Gusty east winds will develop along Sierra ridges Monday into Tuesday, and possibly late week. && .DISCUSSION... Near normal temperatures (mid 40s) early week will quickly be exceeded by Wednesday with afternoon highs 5-10 degrees above normal. This warming trend is owed to the fact that upper level ridging will continue to strengthen through the week. With this pattern we can also expect morning inversions and light winds. Sierra freezing fog will also remain likely overnight and into the morning hours before burning off in the late morning. The only exception this week will be the potential for enhanced easterly breezes along ridgetops late Monday and again late Thursday. Gusts may range up to 50 mph at times during these time frames. Dry and benign weather is expected to continue through at least early next week as that ridge remains in place. -Giralte && .AVIATION... FZFG will bring periods of IFR/LIFR conditions at KTRK tonight before dissipating after 15Z. However, upper level cloud cover may inhibit fog development. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light surface breezes prevail today and through much of this week. Morning haze from valley inversions may bring slantwise visibility reductions each day this week for W NV terminals. E/NE FL100 winds will increase to 20-30 kts along the Sierra crest Monday evening, which may pose mountain wave turbulence issues into early Tuesday morning. -Giralte/Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

941 FXUS66 KSTO 112104 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 104 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected next 7 days with a return to widespread Valley fog/low clouds and warm/dry weather at higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... A stream of high clouds lingering over the Valley is evident on satellite imagery early this afternoon, with otherwise dry and mostly sunny conditions and seasonable temperatures persisting throughout interior NorCal today. Valley fog development is expected overnight and into Monday morning, although some uncertainty regarding areal coverage remains. Resultant HIRES guidance continues to show a 40 to 60 percent chance of visibility reductions below a half mile across the Delta, central/southern Sacramento Valley, and northern San Joaquin Valley. ...The Week Ahead... A stationary ridge continues to amplify across the West Coast into this week bringing potential for persistent low stratus and fog to the Valley. Areas above the stratus (upper foothills and mountains) will see above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy to gusty east-northeast winds overnight into the early morning. Low daytime humidity and limited overnight recovery will be likely in higher elevation areas where fog and low clouds remain nonexistent. Overall light winds are expected elsewhere throughout the week although a period of breezier north winds is possible late in the week with a 20 to 40 percent chance of gusts up to 20 mph in the northern Sacramento Valley. Depending on the extent of these breezier Valley winds, persistent fog and low stratus may be inhibited later in the week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through 10z for each site, with light and variable winds. Around 10z through 12z FG/BR develops and spreads through the sites, with 2SM to 5SM for each site around Sacramento towards RDD. SCK and MOD have the best chance to see quarter to half mile visibilities around 10z through 18z tomorrow. Skies generally clear out after the TAF period. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

559 FXUS65 KMSO 112120 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 220 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Light snow and pockets of freezing rain across northwest Montana tonight into Monday morning - High Pressure to bring prolonged dry pattern next 7-10 days A weak disturbance, associated with the remnants of an atmospheric river primarily impacting Canada, will move through northwest Montana tonight into Monday morning. Snow levels will rise to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet this evening, lower than previously forecasted. While precipitation will remain light and fall mainly as snow, pockets of freezing rain are possible, particularly in the valleys of Lincoln and Sanders counties. Commuters in these areas should prepare for snow-covered or patchy, icy roads on Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Valley inversions are expected to strengthen each night, increasing the potential for fog and low stratus clouds. Air stagnation could become a concern by the end of the week, with models indicating a greater than 65% chance that this stagnant pattern persists into next week. && .AVIATION... Remnants of an atmospheric river will continue to stream across the Northern Rockies through Monday morning. The majority of the region will experience mid to high level clouds, but extreme northwest Montana could experience light precipitation in the form of snow and potential brief periods of freezing rain. The probability of KGPI being impacted by precipitation is very low, but showers are anticipated to be in the vicinity of the terminal late tonight into mid Monday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

110 FXUS65 KBOI 120326 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 826 PM MST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION...A ridge will continue to expand over the region over the next several days with warming temperatures aloft. Patchy fog is possible, especially in the lower basins and sheltered mountain valleys as the inversion strengthens. The ridge retrogrades offshore around Friday and allows cooler air to move down the Snake Plain from the east next weekend. No precipitation in sight and no updates to the forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR, except patchy fog/low stratus overnight for sheltered mountain-valleys and lower basins. MVFR-LIFR in fog/low stratus, with mountain obscuration. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 10-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Mist/fog may develop in the vicinity between 12/10Z-15Z. Surface winds: light and variable. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A strong upper level ridge will remain in place as the dominant feature over the Intermountain West through the period. This feature will keep the storm track well to our north and promote dry conditions across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. As the ridge strengthens, valley inversions will deepen and trap cold air near the valley floors while temperatures aloft warm significantly. This setup will result in a continuation of near normal temperatures in the lower valleys, particularly the Snake Plain and Baker Valley, while mountain locations and ridgetops experience unseasonably warm conditions. With light winds and clear skies expected overnight, radiational cooling will be efficient. This will lead to the development of patchy fog and low stratus in sheltered valleys and basins, including the Treasure Valley and Lower Snake Plain, by Monday morning. Any fog that forms may be slow to erode under the strengthening subsidence inversion. Winds will remain generally light and terrain driven, though a weak southeasterly drainage wind may persist in the Magic Valley. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The forecast period will continue to be dry under high pressure, with continued air stagnation concerns under an inversion. Valley cold pools will keep lower elevation temperatures leaning near to above normal (up to around 5 degrees above), while higher elevations will be 10-15 degrees above normal. Have adjusted higher elevation temps up to better capture the inversion affects. Daytime highs will be above freezing across much of our area, barring the highest peaks. Another implication of the valley cold pool, paired with light winds and generally clear skies, will be patchy fog each morning. The favored locations for fog development will be sheltered mountain valleys and lower basins. Uncertainty still remains come late Thursday/Friday. As has been advertised, guidance has been in good agreement of a dry cold front/shortwave crossing to our east...with the uncertainty in the westward extent of it. The GFS has been the most ambitious in its western extend, which would bring increased winds and help mix some of the valley inversions, but appears to be trending east towards the Euro and EC-AI solutions. The majority of the Grand Ensemble members still favor that farther east track. Either way, the ridging is expected to persist throughout the long-term with no precipitation chances to be found. Beyond the long-term period, early next week, there are some hints that we may finally break out of this pattern. Stay tuned! && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday IDZ011>014-016-028-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Friday ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....NF

775 FXUS65 KLKN 112013 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1213 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1211 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 * High pressure and quiet conditions expected through the forecast. * Temperatures will warm to well above normal levels by Tuesday and Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The weather pattern will remain quiet as a blocking pattern over the western United States maintains a tight grip over the region. Highs will warm to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will remain light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Forecast confidence remains high at this time. As a result, no changes were made to the NBM forecast as the blocking pattern remains over the western United States. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions and light winds through the next 24 hour period. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86