807 FXUS66 KSEW 101008 CCA AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 303 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Zonal flow aloft and onshore flow will lead to daytime high temperatures near seasonal normals today and again Tuesday. An upper trough passing across British Columbia will cool temperatures slightly and bring to a threat of showers in the North Cascades midweek. Warmer conditions return at the end of the week as upper ridging rebuilds over the region. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest satellite imagery showing marine stratus more advanced than it was 24 hours ago, with cloudy conditions expected by sunrise stretching at least into the east Puget Sound lowlands...possibly even into some Cascade valleys. Current temps also reflecting this more successful marine push, running on average 2 to 4 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning. The forecast for today and Tuesday will remain consistent with the general pattern that has been in place for the past few days. Stratus likely to be burned off by late morning and enough daytime heating to get daytime highs akin to what they were yesterday, if maybe a degree or two shy. Latest models currently show that marine stratus push tonight might not be as successful as the current one. That will lead to clouds burning off quicker Tuesday and thusly a degree or two of warming. Consensus remains intact so far with regard to an upper level trough passing just to the north of the Canadian border Wednesday. Any potential rainfall from that system still looks to be confined to the northern Cascades. Sufficient instability over that area will also allow for the prospect of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The more widespread impact from this passing system will be a dip in daytime highs with mainly mid to upper 70s in the interior lowlands and mid 60s along the coast. 18 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models put some splotches of potential precip over some locations in W WA for Thursday...possibly due to a following shortwave...but it is a feature you would have to squint to find. As such, confidence remains low in this prospect, even though the NBM seems to have latched on to it in the extended. Instead, more likely is the start of a warming trend Thursday returning widespread lower 80s to the interior lowlands, with the coast warming up to the upper 60s to lower 70s. The heat remains on for Friday as highs for the interior top out in the mid to upper 80s. This would result in Moderate/Orange HeatRisk for the entire I-5 corridor stretching from Olympia to Bellingham...with perhaps a small gap around Mt. Vernon. For the weekend, nothing seems terribly impressive as models bring through a pretty low amplitude ridge followed quickly by an inverted counterpart of equally less impressive depth. These features are generally dry and should only result in a gradual cooling trend for the weekend. Even then, daytime highs for the interior are not expected to escape from the 80s. 18 && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft will persist through the TAF period, along with onshore flow in the low levels. Marine stratus is currently making its way inland into the interior this morning, and will continue to filter in over the next few hours. This will bring a couple hours of IFR to localized LIFR conditions to the area terminals before stratus retreats back to the coast around mid to late morning. Mostly clear skies will prevail thereafter for the inland terminals, with some high cloud cover passing overhead. Winds are mostly light, persisting at 5kt or less, across the area this morning, except at KCLM where winds persist out of the west and are breezy at times with a westerly push down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds will become more northerly across the interior and increase to 5-10 kt during the afternoon hours. VFR conditions will then prevail for most sites, except for KHQM on the coast, through the remainder of the day. Another round of stratus looks to push inland on Tuesday morning. KSEA...VFR conditions with light winds at the terminal, primarily around 5 kt or less. Latest guidance indicates a 30 to 35 percent chance of stratus bringing a few hours of MVFR to IFR conditions to the terminal between 13-17Z this morning. Expect conditions to improve back to VFR by mid to late morning. Winds will shift back to the north this afternoon and will persist between 4-8 kt. Another round of stratus may push into the terminal on Tuesday morning, with guidance highlighting similar probabilities of 30-35 percent chance of MVFR conditions developing by early Tuesday. && .MARINE... Broad surface high pressure will remain centered over the offshore waters with lower pressure east of the Cascades through much of the week ahead. This will maintain onshore flow over the next several days and bring diurnally driven small craft advisory strength westerlies to the central and east Strait of Juan de Fuca daily. A series of weak systems passing to the north of the area throughout the week may help strengthen onshore flow at times for additional risks of gales along the central and eastern Strait. Seas across the coastal waters will primarily persist at 4-6 feet today, before subsiding towards 3-4 feet by Tuesday. Seas then look to increase to 5-7 feet again near midweek and will persist within the 3-6 foot range through the second half of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... A dry, onshore flow pattern with seasonable temperatures and persistent good to excellent overnight RH recoveries through Tuesday. Ensembles continue to very confidently show an upper level shortwave clipping the area Wednesday, with some variability in the strength of the shortwave. This continues to reinforce the scenario of thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon and evening for the far northern Cascades. The NBM has a 20-30% probability over the Whatcom, Skagit and Snohomish Cascades through late Wednesday evening. Warmer and continued dry conditions remain on track through the second half of the week, likely resulting in a return of elevated fire weather concerns for some areas. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

368 FXUS66 KPQR 100926 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 225 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue through the upcoming week as temperatures moderate towards August normals. Onshore flow will keep smoke east of the Cascades, while precipitation chances remain very low through the end of the week. Temperatures may trend warmer late this week as a ridge of high pressure develops offshore. Increasing potential for afternoon convection over the central OR Cascades Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday...Fairly typical summer weather will continue early this week as near average temperatures are expected today and Tuesday. This is in part due to zonal flow aloft and onshore flow in the lower levels. Relatively shallow marine stratus at the coast will retreat, giving way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon, while a brief period of clouds will be possible this morning up the lower Columbia River Valley into the Portland metro area. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the lower to mid-80s for interior lowlands, and into the mid-60s to low 70s at the coast. Expect similar conditions on Tuesday. By Wednesday, there is increasing confidence for upper level troughing dropping out of British Columbia into Washington and Oregon. Model forecast soundings are showing a deepening of the marine layer which would allow for deeper stratus to push into SW Washington and the northern Willamette Valley, as well as the potential for squeezing out some drizzle at the coast. This would also allow for afternoon temperatures to drop a few degrees, depending on how long morning clouds linger. Still some uncertainty late in the week in daytime high temperatures as model spread remains relatively large Thursday and Friday. If troughing were to linger around, cooler (or near average) temperatures would be more likely, but a warming trend is also possible with highs returning into the mid to upper 80s, with at least a 25% chance of reaching 90 degrees on Friday. Cluster analysis of the ensembles indicates the potential for upper level ridging to build offshore with varying degrees of troughing or upper level low pressure developing near central California. This feature is also bringing the potential for more convective weather developing near the central OR Cascade crest both Friday and Saturday afternoons with the northward push of some monsoonal moisture. Temperatures are likely to persist near to slightly above normal into next weekend, with warm and dry conditions likely. /DH && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Tue...Dry, westerly flow aloft continues with marine stratus filling in along the coast and up the lower Columbia River Valley. High confidence for low-end MVFR CIGs through 20z Monday, with chances for IFR CIGs at around 40-50% between 12-18z this morning. Confidence for stratus developing at KONP increases after 10z early this morning with IFR CIGs likely between 12-16z, followed by improvement back to VFR as clouds scatter out by 18z. Given that stratus as already reached the KKLS area early this morning, Portland Metro terminals, including KPDX and KTTD, could see MVFR CIGs between 13-16z Mon. As daytime heating progresses, stratus will gradually dissipate, returning VFR conditions to the Portland Metro after 16z Mon and after 19-21z Mon along the coast. For the rest of the terminals in the Willamette Valley, VFR conditions with clear skies prevail through the TAF period. North to northwesterly winds increase to 10-15 kt in the afternoon and evening with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and up to 20 kt inland. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions with clear skies expected through the TAF period, except for a period of brief stratus between 13-16z this morning. During this time, there is a 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs across the eastern Portland Metro. Northwest winds 4-6 kt increase to around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by 00z Tue. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain northerly winds through much of next week. Surface pressure gradients tighten again this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt possible south of Cape Foulweather through this evening. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory in effect today. Winds look to ease slightly on Tuesday with much lower chances (30%) of wind gusts exceeding 21 kt. Similar conditions persist through late in the week. Wind driven seas are expected to remain around 3 to 6 ft through the week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ253. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

348 FXUS66 KMFR 100521 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1021 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm temperatures continue but decrease day to day until seasonable conditions are present in the middle of the week. * Dry weather and elevated afternoon breezes are behind continuing fire weather concerns. * Periods of smoke accumulation are expected over Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. * Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, but appear overall slight at this moment. && .DISCUSSION...Zonal flow with a slightly southwest orientation is present in the upper pattern, which will bring steadily decreasing temperatures until most areas see seasonal conditions by the middle of the week ahead. Atmospheric moisture remains low in this period of the forecast, which will keep inland skies generally clear. Onshore flow will keep a pattern of marine stratus buildup and erosion along the coast, which may keep daytime temperatures cooler than expected in areas where cloud layers endure into the afternoon. While there are no features that look to cause gusty inland winds, a series of weak disturbances following the upper flow will help to keep afternoon breezes slight elevated. This combination of dry conditions and elevated breezes will keep fire weather concerns elevated for the time being. In spite of those elevated breezes, smoke remains trapped in some low-lying areas. With westerly or southwesterly flow aloft and currently decreased fire activity, additional smoke reaching west side valleys is not expected. Calm overnight conditions look to allow for periods of smoke accumulation over Klamath, Lake, and Modoc counties. A somewhat intricate upper pattern develops towards the end of the week, with a cutoff low dropping to the south and building a trough near the Pacific coast. This pattern may bring some monsoonal moisture as well as periods of instability which makes thunderstorms a concern, but agreement on if, where, and when activity develops in the CWA is sparse. Deterministic imagery for Thursday through the weekend shows the main moisture plume shifted eastward compared to model data from 24 hours ago. Thunderstorm triggers are also somewhat lacking at the moment, leading to generally isolated afternoon and eventing thunderstorms east of the Cascades in model imagery. But confidence in any specific outcome remains slight, as any change to the expected conditions could result in more activity or the complete absence of any thunderstorm development through the weekend. -TAD && .AVIATION...10/06Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke at Klamath Falls will bring a potential for visibility reductions to MVFR in smoke and even some higher ceilings from the airport eastward tonight through Monday morning. Expect IFR in marine stratus to develop for areas along the coast north of Cape Blanco tonight into Monday morning. Confidence is moderate for North Bend to see IFR ceilings late tonight and early Monday morning. Strong, gusty north winds up to 30 kt will occur along the coast, including at North Bend, Monday afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions. Medford and Roseburg will be VFR for the next 24 hours with just some locally breezy winds this afternoon/evening (gusts to 20 kt). && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026...Gusty north winds continue over area waters, with areas of gale force gusts and very steep seas south of Port Orford. Elsewhere, gusty winds and steep seas are expected. These conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday evening. Winds look to ease on Thursday but unsettled seas could continue into next weekend. -TAD && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, August 9, 2026...We`ll stay in a pattern of very warm, very dry, and occasionally breezy conditions today through mid week. This pattern includes overnight breezy east to northeast winds at ridge tops of SW Oregon and NW California (most notably the Coast Range and Kalmiopsis Wilderness) along with poor to moderate RH recovery. A channeling of winds down the Chetco could result in some drier/warmer conditions along the SW Oregon coast as well. Upper level ridging shifting back toward the Four Corners will allow westerly zonal flow aloft to bring lower heights and modest cooling to inland areas. Generally, the trend will be to lower daytime MaxTs down by a degree or two each day, and this should subsequently allow daytime MinRHs to be slightly higher. Even so, it`ll be dry and unstable, so any fires on the landscape will still have the ability to grow significantly, especially during the peak burning periods during the afternoons/evenings. Overnight RH recoveries haven`t been good the last couple of nights, generally only in the 20-35% range for some of the upper slopes and ridges. There should be slight nightly improvement in recoveries from NW to SE through the period. Things trend toward normal for mid next week, but temperatures still probably remain a few degrees above normal for most locations. Models and ensemble guidance continue to show a weakness or upper trough developing near or just off the California coast Wed/Thu and also show an increase in monsoonal moisture coming up from the south late week. Right now, models have lessened the risk a bit, but still bring isolated lightning chances up into NorCal around Thursday with the best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Fri/Sat from NorCal up the Cascades and over to the East Side. But, given plenty of uncertainty in strength of forcing mechanisms and overall instability, confidence has notched downward a bit in this forecast cycle. Keep checking back for updates since any lightning brings with it the risk of new fire starts. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. && $$

485 FXUS66 KEKA 100742 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1242 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Slightly cooler, but still hot, interior temperatures are forecast through Wednesday. * Smokey conditions likely from the MP 18 Fire in the Trinity River Valley. * Slight chance of interior thunderstorms late this week. && .SYNOPSIS...High pressure starts to weaken this week, but slightly above normal temperatures in the interior are expected through Wednesday. Coastal areas continue to have near normal temperatures with overnight stratus clearing in the afternoons along with breezy northwest winds. && .DISCUSSION...The seemingly immovable upper level ridge that has dominated the weather for the past week or so has finally begun to give way to more zonal flow aloft. This will begin the "cooling" trend starting today, though interior temperatures will still remain hot with the warmest valleys breaking 100. Still, most areas will see highs a couple degrees cooler today. This trend continues with interior valleys seeing highs in the high 90s to just over 100 through Wednesday. Coastal areas remain in 60s for much of the week with stratus forming each night and clearing, at least partially, in the afternoons. Daytime heating in the interior will continue to tighten the surface pressure gradient each afternoon forcing stronger onshore (NW) sea breezes. In NW-SE situated river valleys (Trinity River Valley, Eel River Valley, areas near Clear Lake, etc.) these winds will have a higher chance to mix down to the surface. These winds along with hot and dry conditions will continue elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. For more details, see the fire weather section below. Despite the increased surface winds, the smokey conditions within the Trinity River Valley will likely remain, depending on fire containment, through midweek as the fire activity increases each afternoon. The HRRR smoke model shows smoke moving along upvalley flow before settling into valleys each night. This pattern is expected to remain through Wednesday at the earliest. Global ensemble models and 500mb clusters suggest that the midweek, zonal flow aloft will likely evolve into weak to moderate troughing by late week. The troughing will force a cooling trend with inland temperatures struggling to break 90F by Friday. Troughing could also create an environment capable of supporting afternoon thunderstorms over the interior mountains. A lot of variability remains regarding this weather threat, such as moisture available, instability, or if there will be enough lift at the surface to create updrafts. Stay aware of forecast changes as more details become available through the week. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Coastal stratus has started to reform around Humboldt Bay and IFR to MVFR conditions are likely around ACV early this morning. Confidence is lower on stratus impacts at CEC as northerly winds increase near Pt St George this morning. This may be just far enough off shore and/or above the surface inversion to prevent stratus from making it to the airport, despite southerly surface winds being observed currently. Regardless, IFR to MVFR stratus is likely to lift and scatter shortly after sunrise. Interior areas outside the near-coastal river valleys will remain VFR through the night. However, smoke impacts in the Trinity River Valley may bring low visibilities until winds pick up in the afternoon. VFR conditions (outside of smoke) are likely by the afternoon with gusty northerly winds likely at the coastal terminals. && .MARINE...Gale force northerly winds remain persistent in the outer waters and are likely to continue through Wednesday. Despite lighter winds nearshore (peaking at 10 to 20 kts each afternoon), steep seas of 7 to 9 ft are likely through Wednesday. High pressure begins to weaken mid to late this week which will bring relief to the strong northerlies. Steep seas will gradually ease Thursday into Friday, which will give way for very mild conditions across the waters Friday into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...A slight cooling trend is expected this week as high pressure moves out of the area while weak troughing sets in. Still, hot and dry conditions continue early this week. Afternoon winds will not be as strong as this weekend`s but still is likely to be locally elevated in channeled terrain. Gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are possible in the Trinity River Valley and around Clear Lake this afternoon. Additionally, the higher elevations of Del Norte will see gusty overnight east winds, which will lead to poor to moderate overnight relative humidity recoveries. However, relative humidity is expected to remain high enough outside the highest ridges to avoid widespread critical conditions. Troughing has the potential to funnel moisture into the area later this week. The moisture, if it materializes over NW CA, could result in some afternoon thunderstorms for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Confidence remains low at this time and NBM probabilities currently hover around 5 to 10% in Trinity and Siskiyou Counties. This will be watched closely over the coming days. && .COASTAL FLOODING...Sea levels continue to run approximately 0.8 ft above the predicted tide level in Humboldt Bay. Tides will become more amplified early this week following the lunar cycle. The predicted tide at the North Spit is 7.95 ft MLLW at 10:21 pm tonight and then 7.99 ft MLLW at 11:17 pm on Tuesday the 11th. If the tide continues to run at around 0.8 ft above predicted, this could result in minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay with minor impacts in King Salmon and possibly a few other locations around the bay. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

572 FXUS66 KMTR 101131 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 431 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions in the higher terrain Monday - Minor coastal flooding for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning - Cooling trend through Thursday will bring well below normal temperatures - Up to a 10% chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Today and tonight) Upper-level shortwave troughing developing off the West Coast Monday will kickoff the cooling trend. The 1,000 foot marine layer will likely remain steady, at least initially, with drizzle possible in the mornings. The aforementioned troughing will result in an increase of onshore flow with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon/evening through gaps/passes and across ridgelines. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain coming off the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Minor coastal flooding is expected during the highest high tide (evening/overnight) for bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, and Monterey Bay through Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 (Tuesday through Sunday) A reinforcing trough Wednesday will bring widespread below normal temperatures and deepen the marine layer. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that heights and subsequently temperatures will fall through Thursday as it digs. An increase in monsoonal/sub- tropical moisture is bringing a low (up to 10%) chance for elevated rain showers/thunderstorms with ingredients seemingly only marginal as of now. Best chances look to be Wednesday through Thursday and would likely favor the far southern and eastern parts of the area as the conveyor belt of moisture stays between troughing to the west and ridging to the east. While confidence is low, this would be a high-impact scenario with gusty outflow winds and the potential for new fire starts. It`s going to be a fair fight going into the weekend between a reinforcing trough off the West Coast and a rebuilding ridge across a majority of the rest of CONUS. The official forecast has a slight warming trend into the weekend, most noticeable across the Interior Central Coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 431 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Coastal stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ continue to redevelop and onshore winds are at least partially ushering stratus and fog inland this morning. More recently the marine layer is showing signs of deepening to 1300 to 1800 feet. Stratus and fog will mix out by late morning with VFR prevailing through the afternoon. Stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR-LIFR/ redevelop tonight and Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is currently north of SFO. VFR is forecast to continue at the terminal. West to northwest wind 5 to 15 knots except 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /IFR-LIFR/ will mix out to VFR by late morning with VFR continuing through the afternoon. Stratus /IFR- LIFR/ redevelops and moves inland tonight and Tuesday morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 407 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Fresh to strong northwest winds will persist through the middle of the week with rough seas up to 12 feet over the northern outer waters and occasionally the inner waters north of Point Reyes. The San Pablo, Suisun Bays and the Delta will continue to see gusty onshore winds through early this evening. The long period southerly swells around 15 seconds will continue through much of the work week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions persist Monday across the higher terrain due to an increase in onshore flow on the heels of very hot and dry conditions. Slow improvement is expected with temperatures still 10 degrees above normal and minimum relative humidity of 15%- 30% Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph can be expected through gaps/passes and across ridgelines; namely, the Delta, Altamont Pass, Pacheco Pass, and Interior Mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties. Moderate overnight recovery is expected Monday night; however, the highest terrain of the Central Coast will likely remain poor. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

144 FXUS66 KOTX 101054 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 354 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region. - Elevated fire conditions continue through the first part of the week with potential breezy winds for portions of central Washington. && .SYNOPSIS... Zonal flow aloft will allow for a shortwave to pass through the region Monday and will continue to promote elevated fire weather conditions along the Cascade gaps. Widespread smoke and haze will continue to impact the region over the next few days, especially in the vicinity of or downwind of regional wildfires. A quasi-zonal upper level pattern will continue through the first half of the week, bringing periods of breezy westerly winds and some slightly cooler temperatures to the region. A trough skirting by to the north may bring some precipitaiton chances to northern portions of the area by mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Monday-Tuesday: Zonal or westerly flow will reside over the PacNW to start the work week. This will have several impacts to the weather across the Inland NW. First off will be persistent onshore flow piling cooler marine air west of the Cascade Crest and producing a persistent west to east pressure gradient across the Inland NW. This will result in breezy winds across the open wheat country of the Palouse, Columbia Basin, Snake River Valley, and West Plains. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be common. Winds will be enhanced through the Cascade Gaps and river valleys, especially in the late afternoon and evening when the diurnal flows align. Probabilities via the NBM/HREF range anywhere from 30 to 60% for wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for locations like Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Winthrop, and Malott. This will undoubtedly lead to elevated fire weather conditions with a few hours in the early evening flirting with critical thresholds, especially around the Waterville Plateau and Western Basin. Elevated humidity levels are the one driving factor for messaging this as elevated vs critical and with the push we are observing this evening, humidities are between 30-45% which should be the case each evening. Winds are also being enhanced by embedded waves and cool fronts. One is traversing the area tonight and another will be arriving Tuesday evening/night. The lack of amplification to the midlevel flow will result in more seasonal temperatures which will be capped further by areas of dense smoke. Speaking of smoke, this will remain an tremendous impact across the region with air quality generally in the unhealthy to very unhealthy across the north and unhealthy to moderate south. Wednesday-Thursday: High pressure amplifies over the Gulf of AK allowing an upper-level trough to carve into the Northwest. An axis of moisture strung across the Northern Rockies will get pulled into the trough while lapse rates increase under a -15C 500mb cold pool. Surface based CAPE increases between 200-500 J/kg across northern WA and North Idaho on Wednesday afternoon resulting in a 10-40% chance for developing showers and thunderstorms. The greatest threat (~ 40%) will be closer to the International border but 10-30% chances reside as far south as the Highway 2 corridor from the Cascades to the Idaho Panhandle. Effective shear will be not be supportive of organized updrafts with forecast values on the order of 20-25 kts suggesting short- lived cells but given the projected CAPE and drier sub-cloud layers coupled with downward capes (DCAPE) of 600-1100 J/kg, would expect any sort of rain cooled air to produce erratic outflow winds of 20 to 30 mph. Not only will this be a concern for firefighters, but these small scale boundaries could provide a source of lift for new cells to develop, especially where NBM probabilities are closer to 10%. On another note, confidence is moderate to high for a higher concentration of convective cells to develop in southern BC, this will need to be monitored for a more robust outflow boundary coming in from the north and northeast. The threat for showers will linger into the early night across the northern counties and would expect another day of hit or miss showers and weak thunderstorms to develop again Thursday though the highest probabilities for thunderstorms will migrate into far Northeastern WA and North Idaho as the 500mb cold pool begins to drift to the northeast while upper level temperatures over Central WA warm 1 to 2 Celsius. Friday-Sunday: The general consensus of the ensembles for late week into the weekend is for another shift in the upper-level pattern toward a more dominant trough over the Eastern Pacific and amplifying ridge over the Northern Rockies. This eventually places the Inland NW under southwest flow aloft. This pattern would be supportive of a subtle warming trend along with an increasing trend toward unsettled weather. The details are still fuzzy but there remains moderate confidence for this large scale synoptic pattern to set up over time. Most likely scenario is for showers and thunderstorm chances to be highest around the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie as modified monsoonal moisture makes the north and northeastward track but as the air mass warms and moistens slowly, would not rule out surface based convection over any of the mountains, especially if any smaller disturbances eject from the offshore trough and rippled through the southwest flow. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Smoke and haze from regional wildfires will continue to bring reduced visibilities and ceilings to the TAF sites at times. Winds will be gusty in the Cascade gaps this evening around 25 kt for KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 86 55 86 55 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 85 54 85 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 83 48 83 48 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 91 59 91 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 86 47 86 47 85 45 / 0 0 0 0 30 50 Sandpoint 83 50 83 50 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Kellogg 82 53 82 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 90 55 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 89 63 90 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Omak 91 58 89 61 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Air Quality Alert until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse- Northern Panhandle. Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

804 FXUS66 KPDT 101005 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 305 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm with diurnal breezes through Wednesday. - An upper level trough will then move in followed by a return to southwesterly flow. Then there will be opportunities for mountain showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry westerly flow will continue over the Pacific Northwest for the next several days. Breezy diurnal winds are anticipated, with the Simcoe Highlands, Columbia Basin, Gorge and Kittitas Valley having afternoon wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, possibly as high as 35 mph today and Tuesday, then decreasing a bit on Wednesday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >=25 mph are >80 percent in these areas today, and similar on Tuesday, though with slightly less areal coverage. NBM probabilities of wind gusts >=39 mph are 70-90 percent in the Kittitas Valley and generally less than 50 percent everywhere else. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two cooler in some locations. Tuesday will be about the same as today and Wednesday will be a couple of degrees cooler. With the slightly lower temperatures by midweek, RH values will increase a couple of percentage points today and a few more going into Wednesday. This will help with fire weather conditions, though they will still remain elevated. By midweek, low pressure in British Columbia will move south and push a trough into the Pacific Northwest. This low could potentially trigger some light showers over the Washington Cascades Wednesday, but not much more than that. By Thursday, southwest flow will develop behind the departing low and will strengthen into the weekend. There will also be increasing monsoonal moisture specially Friday onward. While it is too early to tell exactly how things will develop this far out, there is definitely some potential (15-30%) for mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern Oregon. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. The only current exception is RDM where MVFR is occurring due to smoke. BDN now has some smoke that has moved in with IFR conditions. Not sure how long this will last. RDM may improve later this afternoon, as winds increases but confidence is marginal at best. Winds have remained gusty at DLS to around 20 kts and are expected to increase this afternoon to around 30 kts. Winds are expected to gust at PDT, BDN, RDM and YKM to around 20 kts this afternoon, before all sites return to 10 kts or less this evening. ALW and PSC will remain 10 kts or less through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 53 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 89 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 92 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 85 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 89 47 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 90 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 89 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>030- 521>523. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for ORZ041-044-049-050- 502-503-505>511. && $$ DISCUSSION...77 AVIATION...77

793 FXUS65 KREV 100940 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 240 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Increased breezes elevate fire and recreation concerns this afternoon, with areas of smoke continuing over parts of northeast CA, northwest and far western NV from ongoing fires. * Isolated showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon south of Highway 50, with increasing storm chances and coverage by midweek. * Heat eases up but lingers through Tuesday for west central NV, followed by a more notable cooling for the rest of this week. && .DISCUSSION... The multi-day heat wave is winding down with the high pressure ridge retreating from the Great Basin to the Four Corners region, and losing some of its strength. Some valleys in west central NV could still see highs edge above 100 degrees today with isolated Major HeatRisk, but overall impacts will decrease so all heat- related warnings and advisories have ended. Temperatures take a more notable downward trend from Tuesday through the end of this week, with Thursday-Friday expected to be the coolest days when highs settle to the 80s for most lower elevations and 70s for Sierra communities. This afternoon a weak trough near the Pacific NW coast will bring increased breezes and continued dry conditions, leading to elevated fire weather concerns as highlighted in the Fire Weather section below. Isolated shower and t-storm activity this afternoon remains limited to Mono, Mineral and southern Lyon counties, with a few cells pushing into southern and eastern Churchill County into the early evening. Smoke and haze will continue over northeast CA-northwest NV today, with the most widespread impacts near the OR border through this morning. Areas near and north of Reno-Sparks and extending east to Fernley and Fallon will also be affected by haze and smoke from the Bug and Fred Mountain fires this morning, with additional smoke production likely this afternoon as temperatures warm up and humidity decreases. From Tuesday through Thursday, deeper moisture (PW values 0.6-0.9", with some areas near or above 1.0" for Wed-Thurs) advances northward across western NV and eastern CA, increasing the risk for mainly afternoon-evening showers and t-storms. An area of low pressure forming near the CA coast is projected to provide additional forcing, leading to stronger storms with a heavy rainfall/flash flood threat especially Wednesday-Thursday. The presence of this low could keep shower activity and isolated lightning going through the overnight/morning periods from late Tuesday into Thursday. By the end of this week, shower and storm activity starts to decrease, with lower chances overall by next weekend. The medium range guidance shows a wider spread of scenarios so confidence is lower on how quickly the storm chances or coverage decreases. Residual moisture and weak upper level disturbances appear to be in play to prevent a definite end to shower or t-storm chances next weekend. MJD && .AVIATION... Drier SW-W breezes with gusts 20-25 kt will shift the risk of PM showers and t-storms away from the main terminals today, except for KMMH which has about a 15% chance of isolated showers/thunder affecting the terminal mainly between 21-01Z with brief light rain and occasional gusts 25-30 kt being the main effects. For Tuesday, the shower and t-storm chances increase to around 25% at KMMH, near 15% for KRNO-KCXP-KMEV but remain less than 10% for KTRK-KTVL. Again, brief rain and gusty winds to 30 kt remain the primary threats with Tuesday`s storms, mainly between 20-02Z. More widespread showers and storms are likely to bring more significant impacts to all the main terminals by Wednesday afternoon. Smoke filtering into northwest NV and northeast CA from wildfires in Oregon continues to reduce slantwise visibilities across those areas through at least Tuesday. The peak smoke concentration favors the overnight/morning hours with some improvement each afternoon when breezes increase. Elsewhere, the ongoing fires north of Reno will produce areas of reduced slantwise visibility in this area, although at KRNO itself VFR conditions are expected to prevail. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... Westerly gusts of 25-35 mph will and RH reductions to 7-15% will promote a 2-5 hour period of near-critical conditions this afternoon from far NE California and NW Nevada -- including ongoing wildfires in Washoe and Douglas counties. Winds become breezy again Tuesday afternoon, but will be weaker than today`s winds. Nighttime recoveries remain poor for most areas in NE California and W Nevada as RH struggles to exceed 30-40%, extending burn periods into the overnight hours. Low probabilities (10-20%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms return to Mono, S.Lyon, Mineral, and S.Churchill counties this afternoon. Attendant hazards include occasional lightning and new fire starts, and strong outflow gusts of 50+ mph. Elsewhere, drier air aloft and increased breezes should limit vertical plume growth and attendant hazards this afternoon despite an unstable airmass. However, increasing moisture aloft and slightly weaker mixed-layer winds will increase the potential for more impactful plume activity (i.e., locally strong near-fire winds, sudden/erratic downdraft gusts from plume collapses) with the more intense wildfires Tuesday afternoon. An ongoing ridge breakdown sequence culminates in much cooler temperatures, higher daytime humidity, and improved nighttime recoveries from Wednesday onward. However, this pattern change also directs deeper moisture into the region, increasing the potential and coverage of showers and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms from Tuesday to Friday. One benefit of abundant moisture is a higher likelihood of wetting rains on new/existing wildfires, but it also encourages heavy rain and flash flooding impacts to operations. Isolated dry lightning and new fire starts will also be possible with thunderstorm activity this week. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

730 FXUS66 KSTO 092033 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 133 PM PDT Sun Aug 9 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread Moderate to areas of Major HeatRisk continue through today. - Gradual cooling trend Monday onward with more seasonable temperatures and periods of breezy onshore winds through the week. - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley, Burney Basin, Sierra, and adjacent Foothills through Monday due to hot temperatures, low humidities and increased breezes. - Isolated thunderstorm (15%) chances along the Sierra Crest south of Interstate 50 this afternoon and evening. - Monsoonal moisture will bring increasing chances of mountain thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday, peaking on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...The heat wave is expected to continue through today, with widespread triple-digit high temperatures across the Valley and foothills. There is a widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk across interior NorCal. The heat will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM this evening for the Valley and foothills, as well as mountain locations north of Highway 50. Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Monday due to hot, dry, and breezy winds conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley, Sierra foothills, and Burney Basin. Low relative humidities in the single digits to teen`s percent are forecast today for the mentioned areas. Additional elevated fire weather concerns today for the Sierra Crest south of Highway 50 due to 10-15% isolated thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with the majority of the activity remaining east of the crest. The upper-level ridge over the Four Corner will begin to breaks down on Monday, while a mid- to upper- level shortwave trough develops off the West Coast. Onshore flow is expected to increase in response, providing a broader overnight relief and increasing humidity values. Resulting in slightly cooler temperatures on Monday, with more seasonable temperatures on Tuesday. Ensembles continue to suggest the upper-level trough settles over the region by middle week, bringing more widespread cooling, with near to below normal temperatures and Minor HeatRisk area wide late in the week. Monsoonal moistures will bring increasing chances of mountain thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday, with the highest chances (25-35%) Thursday. There is a 30-60% chance of wetting rain over the Sierra Crest south of Highway 80 on Thursday, with 15-30% chances over far northern Sierra and into the southern Cascades. Additional, there is low chances (10%) for thunderstorms over the Sierra foothill as well on Thursday. Elevated fire weather is expected Tuesday through the weekend from thunderstorm fire starts. Stay tuned for updates! && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds generally remain 12 kts or less at TAF sites. West to southwest gusts up to 20 kts in the Delta from 00Z through 12Z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Burney Basin- Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5- Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft- E. Diablo Range Above 1000 ft-E. Shasta /S. Cascades Above 3000 ft-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-Glenn/Colusa Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Lassen Volcanic NP-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1- 5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra 3000-5000 ft-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft-W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505- Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

238 FXUS65 KMSO 100743 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 143 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread smoke continues to degrade air quality, with the highest impacts across northwest Montana. - Elevated to near-critical fire weather across Southwest Montana today. - A gradual cooling trend by the middle of next week; rain and thunderstorm chances, primarily along the Continental Divide. As with the last several days, the Northern Rockies will remain under a dry westerly flow aloft through Tuesday. A large ridge of high pressure remains centered to the south, with the Northern Rockies situated on the northern periphery of the ridge. Fire weather remains a concern, with hot, dry, and breezy conditions bringing areas of near-critical to localized critical fire weather, focused along and east of the divide in Southwest Montana. Areas in the vicinity of Dillon have the highest probability (40-50%) of reaching Red Flag Warning criteria as gusts reach 20-30 mph by mid-late afternoon. Wildfire smoke continues to degrade air quality and visibility across the region. Unhealthy to very unhealthily Air Quality Indexes have been observed along and north of the I-90 corridor in northwest Montana. These impacts are driven by significant wildfire activity upstream in Oregon and Washington. Looking ahead to this afternoon, deeper mixing associated with an upper level disturbance will help to provide improved ventilation and perhaps improvements to visibility. This will largely depend on how active wildfires become upstream. Model guidance continues to highlight a cooling trend by Wednesday into Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves southeastward from British Columbia. Shower and thunderstorm activity will initially focus along the USA-Canadian border and divide in northwest Montana Wednesday afternoon, before spreading southward across much of the area by Thursday. This change will be driven by increased atmospheric moisture and instability as deepening south-southwest flow moves monsoon moisture into the region. Furthermore, model guidance suggests a cold front will track southward along the divide Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing a north-northeast wind shift across western Montana. By Friday and into next weekend, the focus for thunderstorm activity will shift south into Southwest Montana as the region transitions into a southwesterly flow pattern. && .AVIATION...Wildfire smoke will continue to bring visibility impacts, with observations fluctuating between 2 to 6 miles. The lowest visibility is expected northwest Montana, north of the I-90 corridor. Light and variable winds this morning will become west-northwest, with gusts of 15-20kts by late afternoon as an upper level disturbance enhances vertical mixing. High density altitudes will also persist at higher elevation airfields with warm temperatures in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

467 FXUS65 KBOI 101007 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 407 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot, dry, and smoky into Wednesday. - Gradual cooling through the week. - Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and beyond, especially on the Idaho side. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Issued 221 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026 Near zonal flow aloft today will begin to turn more southwesterly as troughing deepens near the west coast. Lingering monsoonal moisture today should remain just south and east of our area. As such, any isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon should also remain just outside of our area. This will begin to change, however, come Wednesday as the southwesterly flow allows for monsoonal moisture to push back across the area. Come Wednesday afternoon, this moisture will be playing with the Nevada border, which will allow for isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop near the Nevada border. With a dry boundary layer, gusty winds will be the primary hazard out of storms that develop. This moisture will continue to push north into our area beyond Wednesday. Otherwise, the short-term period will continue to be hot, smoky, and breezy. Low elevation temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mountain valleys in the mid to high 80s. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Issued 221 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026 The long-term period is looking to be more active (especially across southwest Idaho). Monsoonal moisture will continue to push north through the end of the week, with LREF mean PWATs increasing to around the 90th percentile of climatology. Come thursday afternoon, chances of showers and thunderstorms will overspread the majority of southwest Idaho and portions of eastern Oregon, aided by the upper level trough and shortwave. Model soundings indicate elevated instability continuing into Friday morning, so some nocturnal thunderstorms can`t be ruled out overnight Thursday. Showers and afternoon thunder will continue into the weekend, especially over the Central Idaho Mountains and near the Nevada border. With atmospheric moisture increasing, heavy rain will become more of a threat, especially over steep terrain and recently burned areas. Chances of showers and thunder will begin to taper off over the weekend as the shortwave exits our areas. This is barring higher terrain where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms will remain. With general troughing continuing near the west coast, an active pattern could continue beyond the weekend. Temperatures will be warm through the extended, but generally near normal, even leaning below normal by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 407 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2026 Generally VFR with periods of MVFR conditions this morning, mainly in E-Oregon. Wildfire smoke continuing to impact visibility, with improvement this afternoon. Periods of mtn obscuration. High density altitude due to heat this afternoon. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt this morning. Then W-NW 10-20 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: KBOI...VFR with smoke resulting in some visibility degradation and foothill obscuration. Smoky conditions improving this afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable this morning. Becoming NW 8-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ011>015- 028-029-033. OR...Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ this afternoon for ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF

275 FXUS65 KLKN 100701 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 AM PDT Mon Aug 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms possible in parts of Northern and Central Nevada both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon * Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through the week * Gradual cooling trend Tuesday through Friday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The large upper level ridge over the four corners region will continue to remain in its location for the next day or two. This will keep a fairly feeble southerly to southwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. Models are hinting at a weak upper level trough developing along the western coast of the United States. A weak southwest flow is expected that will shunt some of the subtropical moisture east, especially over Northern Nevada. This will bring a decrease in the convective activity across the north, though activity is expected to persist in Central Nevada as evident by the decreasing precipitable water values in the north. Highs in the north will be a degree or three cooler with readings in the low to upper 90s expected over the area. Winds will be breezy especially over the north with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected mainly across the US Highway 50 corridor with some activity reaching Southern Elko county. Main threats will be the cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts near 55 mph. Look for activity to gradually wane during the overnight hours with lows in the 50s and 60s. By Tuesday, all models show the slow strengthening of the upper trough across the western United States with the four corners ridge maintaining its position. Convective activity will again be confined to those locales along the US Highway 50 corridor. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to again cool by several degrees with readings in the low to mid 90s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. On Wednesday, a weak disturbance is expected to push across Northern and Central Nevada during afternoon and evening. This looks like it will lead to an uptick in the convective activity as guidance is showing a fifty to seventy percent chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. WPC is highlighting this time with an area expansion northward of the excessive rainfall outlook. Will need to continue looking at this event as it unfolds for moderate to locally brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions at this time are forecast to be around seven to 14 knots. Highs in the afternoon will further cool with readings in the 80s and 90s. Shower activity will continue into the overnight with lows in the 50s. Thursday through Sunday, models continue to show a daily pattern of shower and thunderstorm activity with high temperatures continuing to cool. Readings are expected to drop into the 80s by next weekend with lows in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high regarding a cooling trend Tuesday through Friday, as well as afternoon and evening thunderstorms in Central Nevada. Confidence is currently moderate for Wednesday`s convective development. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Convection expected this afternoon, with VCTS at KELY. Wind gusts to 20-25KT anticipated across the northern terminals KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northern Nevada today and Tuesday due to west wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as eight percent. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are anticipated in parts of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and cloud to ground lightning strikes. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86