909 FXUS66 KSEW 261019 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 319 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over Western Washington through Friday. A couple of weak systems will move through the area later today and Friday. Upper level ridge building over the weekend into Monday for drier and warmer weather. The ridge will weaken slightly Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington with a few breaks in the overcast. Some light showers starting to appear on the western edge of the radar range offshore. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 50s. Upper level trough remaining over Western Washington through Friday. Weak shortwave, currently near 49N/127W, will move into the area late this afternoon and evening with shower chances increasing at that time. Highest pops will be near the Canadian border. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth of an inch. Last shortwave in the series arriving Friday. Most of the energy with this feature moving by to the north. Chance to slight chance pops for most of the area. Best chance for light showers along the north coast and over the Northwest Interior. Highs both days will be cool, in the lower to mid 60s. Lows with plenty of cloud cover in the 50s. Upper level ridge beginning to build Saturday. 500 mb heights go from the low 570 dms late Friday afternoon to near 580 dms by late Saturday afternoon. Light flow in the lower levels combined with strong June sunshine will dissipate the morning cloud cover leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. With the added sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft, highs climbing into the mid 60s to mid 70s. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Extended models in good agreement the first couple of days with the upper level ridge continuing to build over the area Sunday. The ridge axis will drift east Sunday night into Monday. Light northwesterly onshore flow in the lower levels will keep highs on the coast near 70. Highs over the interior in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and mid 70s to mid 80s Monday. Beginning Tuesday ensemble solutions become more widespread with an increasing amount of outcomes due to a weak upper level trough over California. A few solutions have convection over the Oregon Cascades in the late afternoon and evening but the convection never makes it as far north as Washington. General consensus is a flat upper level ridge over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with highs remaining above normal for the interior, in the 70s and lower 80s. Highs along the coast in the mid to upper 60s with afternoon seabreezes off the upper 50 degree ocean waters. If you were in Western Washington four years ago you certainly remember the next three days. The heat dome over the area resulted in all time record highs on the 28th. In Seattle today was the first of three 100 degree plus days in a row. Before this there had only been 3 100 degree plus days on record at Seattle-Tacoma airport in the 76 year weather history at the airport. The high on June 26th, 2021 in Seattle was 102 degrees followed by 104 on the 27th and the all time record 108 degrees on the 28th. Highs cooled on the 29th with Sea-Tac recording 85 degrees. Felton && .AVIATION...West-southwesterly flow aloft throughout the TAF period. Mostly VFR as of 0900z with the exception of KHQM and KCLM (both MVFR). MVFR cigs will become more widespread by 14-15z as the morning progress, and likely remain throughout the day for a couple of locations such as KHQM. Most terminals should improve to low-end VFR around 19-20z. Rain and showers during the afternoon-evening could lead to localized lowering of cigs/vis. More widespread MVFR slated to return early Friday morning. KSEA...VFR currently at the airfield however, MVFR is set to return by 13-14z and last through the morning. Improvement to VFR is expected around 19-21z. Showers are in the forecast this afternoon and evening. SW winds 5-10 kt throughout much of the TAF period. MVFR cigs set to return early Friday morning. McMillian && .MARINE...A weak front will cross the waters today with no impacts. Westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca are favored each evening throughout the next several days but should remain below SCA criteria. High pressure slated to rebuild over the waters Friday and persist into the weekend, establishing northwest flow over the coastal waters. This high will begin to weaken early next week. Seas will generally be around 3-4 ft throughout the week, increasing slightly during the weekend to 4-6 ft and persisting into next week. McMillian && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

259 FXUS66 KPQR 261059 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 359 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow will maintain cloudier weather and more seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures through Friday. Areas of light drizzle will remain possible later this morning along the coast and for inland areas north of Salem. Warm and dry conditions return this weekend into early next week with inland high temperatures approaching or exceeding 90 degrees in many locations Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...Water vapor imagery shows little change in the upper level pattern this morning as longwave troughing spanning from the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada keeps robust onshore flow focused over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern maintains extensive cloud cover west of the Cascades, with the vertical wind profiler at KAST showing a marine layer depth of around 3000 ft as of 3 AM Thursday. Not currently seeing any precipitation being reported around the region, but expect another round of light rain/drizzle to develop later this morning as the latest disturbance approaches from offshore and provides some weak forcing, lingering into the afternoon across parts of southwest Washington. Once again do not expect more than a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch of precipitation through this evening, with areas along the northern coast from Astoria to Long Beach showing a 10-15% chance to receive as much as a tenth of an inch of rain today. Any precipitation inland should largely be limited to areas from Portland northward as the central and south Willamette Valley remain dry. Much like Wednesday, expect that extensive cloud cover will again keep temperatures this afternoon a couple degrees below guidance as highs top out around 70 degrees in the Willamette Valley and closer to the upper 60s across southwest Washington. Onshore flow will maintain similar conditions on Friday, except with any light rain or drizzle mostly staying confined to southwest Washington. Clouds will also have the potential to scatter out a bit more during the afternoon, allowing highs to end up closer to the low to mid 70s in the Willamette Valley while marine influences keep coastal communities down in the 60s for another day. Onshore flow will also maintain breezy west winds through the central Columbia River Gorge each afternoon as winds gust to 25-30 mph in some spots around Hood River. /CB .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... A stretch of warmer, drier, and sunnier weather will commence on Saturday as models continue to depict a building upper level ridge over the western CONUS with a cutoff low developing over the California coast. Increasing 500 mb heights will allow temperatures to jump back up into the low 80s in the inland valleys on Saturday. Temperatures still look to peak Sunday into Monday as the ridge continues to amplify, with the NBM now depicting a 50-70% chance to reach 90 degrees in the Willamette Valley on Sunday and a 75-90% chance on Monday. Locations across interior southwest Washington show notably lower probabilities to reach 90 degrees, with highs in the 80s more likely from Kelso through the Cowlitz Valley. Probs to reach 95 degrees have backed off somewhat for Monday, now sitting closer to 15-35% in most locations in the Willamette Valley. The mid 90s continue to represent a reasonable worst case scenario for heat on Monday as the chance to reach 100 degrees continues to reside in the low single digits. Temperatures look to level off somewhat beyond Monday, but will still remain well above normal as guidance keeps highs in the 80s for much of the rest of the week, showing around a 30-40% to reach as high as 90 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. The other forecast concern in the long term will be the potential for thunderstorms along the Cascades during the first half of next week, which will largely be dependent upon the evolution of the aforementioned cutoff low near the California coast. This will have the potential to draw monsoonal mid level moisture northward into our area in southeast flow aloft, which is often challenging for the NBM to resolve. A farther north position of the low will generally be more favorable for thunderstorms to reach into the central and northern Oregon Cascades. For now, will maintain a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms along parts of the Cascades both Monday and Tuesday afternoon, but will need to keep a close eye on how this pattern evolves in the coming days. /CB && .AVIATION...Onshore flow continues across the PacNW through Friday. Marine stratus will remain socked in along the coast with ceilings bouncing between MVFR and IFR through the majority of the TAF period, with MVFR conditions expected to dominate through at least 12Z Friday. VFR to MVFR conditions persist across inland locations. Expect predominately MVFR from around 10Z-20Z Thursday with VFR expected afterwards. Weak high pressure slowly developing late Thursday into Friday will likely maintain VFR condition for inland locations through at least 12Z Friday. Overall, winds remain light, less than 10 kts. A very weak weather system moving through the region through early Thursday may cause a few very light showers/aggressive drizzle at terminals from 12Z Thursday to 00Z Friday and will briefly shift winds from west/northwest to southerly between 08-21z Thursday. Any precipitation could result in brief periods of lowered flight conditions through the aforementioned time frame. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with ceilings hovering around FL045 will drop towards MVFR around 11Z-13Z Thursday, improving back to VFR around 18Z-20Z Thursday. Light northwest winds turn southerly after 12Z Thursday before shifting northwest again after 20z Thursday. /42 && .MARINE...A series of weak fronts will pass over the waters through the remainder of the week which will maintain generally westerly winds along with seas less than 6 ft. Each weak frontal passage will result in a brief southerly wind shift. However, over the weekend, as high pressure develops expect a northerly wind shift as is typical with our summer time patterns. Also, winds will begin to ramp up with a 75-90% probability of Small Craft Winds across all waters. Seas too will respond with general seas around 3-5 ft at 8-10 seconds with seas building towards 4-7 ft by this weekend and into the start of the upcoming week. /42-Muessle && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

864 FXUS66 KMFR 261117 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 417 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday...Stratus remains blanketed along and west of the coastal mountains this morning with generally clear skies for the remainder of the area. A weak trough is passing through the region this morning, and this should result in more coverage of marine stratus into the Umpqua Basin by sunrise. Any cloud cover this morning should give way to sunshine this afternoon, with the exception of along the coast where clouds will be more persistent. Otherwise, today will be much like yesterday with afternoon temperatures trending just a few degrees cooler today. Rinse and repeat is the story for tonight and Friday. Weak, persistent troughing over the Pacific Northwest will bring another marine push tonight into Friday morning with similar afternoon temperatures and breezes on Friday compared to today. The pattern transitions for the weekend as heights build over the region and the thermal trough returns along the coast Friday and strengthens into the weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer by about 5 degrees Saturday, with another 5 to 10 degrees of warming expected on Sunday. Sunday will be the warmest day of this warm spell for areas west of the Cascades, then Monday will be the warmest for the East Side. The West Side valleys on Sunday will see highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, while the highs on Monday for the East Side will peak out around 90 to 95. NWS HeatRisk values show a moderate risk for heat related illnesses for this event, especially for those sensitive to these temperatures and those without effective cooling means and hydration. Take it easy if you need to be outside during this heat. Remember to seek shade, take frequent breaks and stay hydrated! Also, if you plan to seek relief by recreating in area water ways...please remember that the water is still cold and cold water shock can happen to even the strongest of swimmers. Wear a life jacket and take frequent breaks from the cold waters. Temperatures trend slightly cooler heading further into next week, but will remain above normal. Meanwhile, an upper level pattern develops Sunday into Tuesday that is a classic thunderstorm pattern for our region. Please see the previous shift`s discussion that follows for details, which largely remain consistent with recent model runs... ...As is typical with periods of heat in the region, it will come to an end with the threat of thunderstorms. With the ridge passing just to our east and strengthening as it moves over the Rockies, a trough develops off the coast of California, which then attempts to move onshore around Monday or Tuesday, taking on a negative tilt as it does so. This is a classic pattern for convection here, with the trough tapping into monsoonal moisture from the south, and taking advantage of the warm surface temperatures and cooler temperatures aloft to produce instability across the inland portions of the forecast area. It now appears that convection is possible Sunday afternoon, focused west of the Cascades, but confidence is low and model guidance seems hesitant to depict this. The pattern does support the possibility, so while the forecast does not include thunder on Sunday, this may change in the coming days. And any convection on Sunday afternoon and evening may even carry on through Sunday night. There is much more confidence, however, on thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, and it is nearly a certain thing that there will be lighting somewhere within the forecast area both afternoons. The trick will be where and when. For MOnday, based on the expected location of the trough, it appears that the bulk of convective activity will be centered around Siskiyou County and the Siskiyous, Cascades, and Rogue/Umpqua Divide, and nearly the entire East Side. That is not to say a few storms may not drift into the West Side Valleys, but the chances are lower. Some convection may carry on through the night, then on Tuesday, thunderstorms are expected to be concentrated farther east, focusing on areas along and east of the Cascades. Based on current guidance, we do not expect very strong or severe thunderstorms, but small hail and gusty winds are possible. Also, given the high moisture content in the atmosphere that the models are depicting, these storms will be wet, and could produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. As always with thunderstorms, lightning will be a threat, not only in regards to new wildfire starts, but also to anyone attempting to enjoy outdoor recreation in the area. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts as the details regarding this thunderstorm threat become more clear over the next few days. -BPN && .AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs...Marine layer stratus is bringing MVFR conditions to the coastal waters and areas along the coast west of the coastal mountains. A weak trough passing through the region this morning should push this marine stratus into portions of the Umpqua Basin by sunrise with some spillover possible into the Rogue Basin. Ceilings are expected to be on the edge between VFR and MVFR around Roseburg, with conditions more scattered and VFR south of the Rogue- Umpqua Divide. Conditions should improve to VFR later this morning, with the lower conditions lingering longest along the coast. Even still, a period of clear conditions is expected this afternoon for coastal locations. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail through this evening, though scattered afternoon cumulus buildups are expected again this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Cascades eastward and in Siskiyou County. Expect the typical increase in afternoon/evening winds, though should be slightly weaker than they were on Wednesday and closer to seasonable values of 15 to 25 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 130 AM PDT Thursday, June 26, 2025...Relatively calm conditions will persist today under light winds and low seas. A thermal trough will take shape today, bringing some increasing north winds south of Gold Beach this afternoon and evening, but winds will remain below advisory levels today. The thermal trough strengthens on Friday and even more so over the weekend. Conditions hazardous to small craft will develop Friday afternoon from Gold Beach southward as north winds increase and seas steepen. Conditions worsen on Saturday as advisory level winds and seas likely spread north of Cape Blanco, with gales and very steep seas possible south of Cape Blanco. The outlook for next week is for the thermal trough to remain strong and maintain hazardous conditions, especially south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, June 25, 2025...Mostly low impact fire weather conditions are expected the rest of this week with fairly typical diurnal (afternoon/evening) breezes, seasonable humidity and near to above normal warmth. A strengthening upper ridge will bring hotter weather to all but the immediate coast this weekend with continued drying. Even the south coast could have highs in the 70s to near 80F Saturday (maybe Sunday too?). A brief period of enhanced E-NE winds at the mid slope/ridge level is expected Friday night and again Saturday night with moderate RH recoveries (especially Sat night), but probably not enough to be concerned about any watches/warnings. Temperatures increase across the interior Saturday with widespread highs in the 90s on Sunday. A few locations in the Rogue Basin could touch 100 degrees Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system will consolidate off the California coast. The upper ridge shifts to the Four Corners region and this pattern sets up south to southeast flow aloft from California into southern Oregon. This is a common thunderstorm pattern for our area, so we`ll see t-storm risk increase as early as Sunday afternoon/evening across the norCal mountains. We don`t currently have thunderstorms in the forecast (PoP less than 15%), but this may change, so keep checking back for updates). Even so, some instability is present and small portion of ensemble members do show activity popping over the higher terrain. As shortwave disturbances ride northward ahead of the closed low off the Cali coast, lightning chances increase on Monday. There is some nocturnal risk for lightning as well Sunday night and again Monday night. The main storm threat shifts to the Cascades and points south and east Tuesday into mid next week. As fuels continue to dry out and the calendar shifts from June to July, fire danger will increase. So, be on the lookout for potential Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings as we head into next week. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

697 FXUS66 KEKA 260911 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 211 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Breezier winds possible today through Friday, bringing elevated fire weather concerns. Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue today through Friday, followed by hotter weather this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally major HeatRisk this weekend, especially on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Coastal stratus has been slightly deeper along the north Cape Mendocino compared with yesterday`s reading. The marine layer depth around 3000 feet MSL per McKinleyville profiler. Patchy drizzle have been occurring as result of the saturated layer. Low clouds are expected to erode back to the coast with the diurnal heating, but will be stubborn to clear out along the coast. However, coastal stratus will gradually lift and mix out during the afternoon as another approaching weak shortwave destabilize the marine layer. Seasonable temperatures for late June along breezy northwesterly winds will continue through Friday. Expect gusts around 20-25 mph through the channeled terrine, while 30-35 mph over the more exposed ridges. The offshore ridges will moves over the area this weekend and into early next week, and a warm deep-layer air-mass will develop across the WRN- CONUS. Meanwhile, a reversal upper-level trough forming off the coast of California. Model guidance has been very consistent supporting 850 mb temperatures of 25-30C or so over the eastern portion of the forecast area, including interior Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties. Interior heat will build on Friday and then peak on Sunday. High temperatures in the hottest valleys are expected to range from 97 to 105F degrees. The HeatRisk is forecast to be Minor to Moderate over the area, but a locally Major HeatRisk is anticipated to occur over portions of Trinity County on Sunday. At this point, those major HeatRisk are expected over isolated areas in the northeastern Trinity valleys. The heat will have impacts on some individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. However, we are going to continue monitoring in case a heat product is needed. Even the coastal areas are expected to warm up into the 70`s before the seas breezes developed. The influence of the upper- level low off the coast along with the heat could possibly bring the potential for some dry thunderstorms. Confidence is low as the position of the upper- level low is uncertain and will determine how much moisture is available for convection. Ensembles shows the high pressure shifting eastward on day 5 (Monday) as a week shortwave approaches the area, while the low spinning off the California Coast moves onshore. Hot weather is expected to continue on Monday and Tuesday next week. There is much more confidence for the potential of thunderstorms (20% chance) on Monday and Tuesday for the Klamath Mountains. /ZVS && .AVIATION...Satellite depicts a deeper marine layer and stratus blanketed the coastal areas, and extended well up the adjacent river valleys. The marine layer depth is up to 3000 feet per the McKinleyville profiler. Variable conditions have been occurring along the coastal terminals as high level clouds spread across the area from the northwest. MVFR ceilings, lowering to IFR at around 600-900 feet around 11Z. With a weakened inversion, low clouds are expected to lift and mix out during the afternoon. This will bring a period of VFR conditions at ACV and possible a brief improvement conditions at CEC. VFR conditions will prevail at UKI. Light and variable winds this morning, becoming breezy NW at 10-15, with gusts up to around 20 kts...especially at ACV and UKI. During the evening,the marine layer will redeveloped along the coast with MVFR ceilings. /ZVS && .MARINE...Fresh to strong northerly breezes will continue across the southern waters, with isolated gusts over 30 kts downwind Cape Mendocino. Gentle to moderate northerly winds for the northern zones, ranging only up to around 15 kts through Thursday. Seas will be mostly controlled by short period wind waves with only a minor northwest mid period swell. Northerly winds will increase again and spread north on Friday and through the weekend. Strong to Gale Force gusts conditions across the southern waters Friday afternoon through late Friday night. A thermal trough move close to the coast on Saturday and the pressure gradient tighten, strong to near gale sustained winds across the outer waters. There is a potential (40 to 65 percent) for near gale to gale force gusts on Saturday across the outer waters. /ZVS && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot and drier weather conditions is forecast for this weekend and early next week. Low daytime RH`s in the teens are expected this weekend, primarily in eastern Mendocino, Trinity and Lake counties. Overnight recoveries will be good to moderate in the valleys and moderate in the higher terrain. Except for some enhanced north wind right along shore and channeled along the Eel river valley on Saturday, daytime winds will be mostly gentle and terrain driven. If the upper-level low off the coast is positioned in a way to bring enough moisture into the area, convection is not out of the question. As of now, thunderstorm probabilities remain low (less than 10%) for the weekend. However, confidence continue increasing with the potential of thunderstorms (20% chance) on Monday and Tuesday for the Klamath Mountains. ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

990 FXUS66 KMTR 261157 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 457 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Seasonal temperatures with night and morning stratus will continue into next week. A weak upper-level trough could bring the chance for some unsettled weather late weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Another June Gloom day on tap with temperatures generally near seasonal normals. The marine layer is currently being observed at 1,100 feet on the Fort Ord profiler with satellite showing stratus along the Pacific Coast, through the Golden Gate Gap, and down the Northern Salinas Valley. Expect stratus to retreat towards the coast by late-morning with some mist/drizzle possible until then. Your weather nugget of the day is that the 00Z 06/26/2025 weather balloon recorded a precipitable water value of 0.42 inches, that is below the 10th percentile (0.48 inches) for the day. A Coastal Flood Advisory (the last one of this astronomical high tide sequence) is in effect from 11PM Thursday through 2AM Friday for Bayshore locations of the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay for minor coastal flooding during nocturnal high tide. Known impacts occur in Bayside Marin County where coastal locations next to Richardson Bay such as Sausalito, Tam Valley, Manzanita, the Sausalito-Mill Valley Bike Path, and the Manzanita Park N Ride experience localized flooding. As always, do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Typical June Gloom/No Sky July long term forecast on tap with one caveat... Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of an upper-level shortwave trough making its way into our area late weekend into early next week. All three deterministic models (Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS) show a negatively-tilted 582 dam upper-level cutoff low off our coast at 12Z (5AM) Monday. While that may sound exciting, as of now there`s no mentionable precipitation or thunderstorm chances. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase, but point model soundings show 0 CAPE, so instability seems to be the missing ingredient from the three ingredients method (lift, instability, moisture). As is typical with cutoff lows, they are notoriously difficult to forecast due to their lack of jet stream support. Add in an active Eastern Pacific Basin and the forecast becomes even more complex - which is what we are dealing with! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A compressed marine layer is helping to limit widespread coverage of low marine stratus, currently lingering in the vicinity of the Bay Area terminals. Expect the stratus to begin clearing by late morning with a return to IFR/MVFR ceilings later tonight into Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Bay Area terminals will continue to hover between IFR/MVFR ceilings with VFR expected by late this morning with occasional light drizzle. Gusty onshore winds will settle in this afternoon before easing after sunset. IFR ceilings are expected to fill back in later this evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low stratus with patchy fog/drizzle will persist through the late morning under a compressed marine layer. Stratus and fog/drizzle is expected to begin to mix out by late this morning into early afternoon. Breezy to gusty onshore winds can be expected this afternoon and early evening, with a return of the marine layer expected in the early evening when the winds begin to ease. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 437 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes with near-gale force gusts will continue through Friday. Gale force gusts can be expected near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur this afternoon and evening. Moderate to rough seas will also continue through tomorrow, with northwesterly winds easing over the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday for CAZ006-506-508. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

889 FXUS66 KOTX 261136 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 436 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds across Central and Eastern Washington through Saturday. - Occasional rounds of scattered showers over the northern mountains Thursday and Friday afternoons. - Much warmer temperatures Sunday into early next week with Moderate and Major HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Weak weather systems will continue to pass over the region through Saturday. A chance of showers will occur over the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle, with a few thunderstorms possible along the Canadian border. Seasonal normal temperatures will end the work week with much warmer temperatures expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday and Friday: The Pacific Northwest will remain under a broad upper level trough for Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s across the Inland Northwest. Weak waves embedded in this broad trough will bring another round of afternoon showers primarily across the northern mountains Thursday afternoon and evening. Confidence in shower development decreases further south with a 10-20% chance for showers across southeast Washington and the southern/central Panhandle in the late afternoon and evening. Weaker mid-level lapse rates due to thicker cloud cover will limit overall instability for Thursday afternoon with a 10-20% chance for thunder confined to far northeast Washington along the Canadian border. Showers will reemerge Friday afternoon as well, but warming temperatures aloft will shrink coverage. Cross-Cascade surface pressure gradients will remain tight through Friday in response to persistent onshore flow and a deepening marine layer over western Washington. Winds will pick up each afternoon and evening across central Washington as a response with wind gusts up to 35 mph. Across eastern Washington, sufficient boundary layer mixing up to 750-700mb looks to support wind gusts 25 to 30 mph in the afternoons. Saturday through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement for the trough to exit to the east on Saturday as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will trend warmer Saturday into early next week with widespread high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s on Monday and Tuesday. For Monday, the National Blend of Models is giving the L-C Valley and lower parts of the Columbia Basin a 60+ percent chance for highs above 100F. Probabilities remain similar on Tuesday, but increase to 50-60% for downtown and north Spokane. HeatRisk will be in the Minor to Moderate category for Sunday, then increasing to Moderate to Major for Monday and Tuesday. Major HeatRisk will be favored across much of central Washington and the L-C Valley both days with Major HeatRisk sneaking into the Spokane-Coeur dAlene metro area on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain warm into Wednesday, however confidence in the exact values begins to wane with an increase in the ensemble spread on the evolution of the upper level ridge. This can be seen in the spread between the 25th to 75th percentiles for max temperatures, which increases from 4-5F on Tuesday to 7-11F on Wednesday to 10-14F on Thursday. Deterministic models continue to hint at the potential for elevated convection early Tuesday, but confidence in this occurring remains low. Ensembles are in good agreement on the presence of an upper level low over California, with uncertainty remaining in the exact placement and overall strength by early to mid next week. If this low hovers further north, increasing southerly flow into Oregon and Washington would allow for monsoonal moisture to advect into the region, which would then increase elevated instability. Combined with orographics and modest lift from the low, this would introduce favorable conditions for elevated thunderstorms over the mountains. While this is not the most likely scenario at this point with the current forecast keeping PoPs and thunder chances between 10%, this potential will continue to be monitored over the next couple of days. /vmt && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites with mid to high level clouds passing through. Breezy west to southwest winds will continue for central Washington through the morning. Expect afternoon breeziness again across eastern Washington and central Washington on Thursday with wind gusts up to 25 knots. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence of VFR conditions for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 78 54 77 52 80 53 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 78 55 75 53 78 52 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 75 50 74 48 76 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 84 60 83 59 86 58 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 77 45 74 43 79 44 / 20 30 40 10 10 0 Sandpoint 76 54 72 50 76 47 / 20 40 30 10 10 0 Kellogg 74 57 71 56 74 55 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 81 53 82 52 85 55 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 80 58 79 58 84 60 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 53 79 51 83 53 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

261 FXUS66 KPDT 260513 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1013 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion .AVIATION...06z TAFs...VFR conditions expected. Sct-bkn mid to high clouds will prevail through the period. Winds will lighten overnight before picking back up once again across all sites during the day Thursday, gusting up to 20 kts at times, mainly out of the W and NW. Evans/74 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Current satellite and radar imagery show clear skies across the forecast area with few clouds forming over portions of Kittitas and Yakima Valley including John Day Highlands. Thanks to the southwest flow, isolated thunderstorms will develop over the eastern mountains this afternoon through evening. Abundant lightning may be main threat with a 30-50% probability, suggested from HREF 4-hr prob of thunder. CAMs show CAPE values to be about 500-800 J/Kg with the raw ensembles favoring a 30-50% prob for very light showers. That said, it is doubtful for these storms to be severe due to weak instability and lack of moisture support. Showers may linger over the Wallowas tonight before gradually decreasing Thursday. Dry conditions will return Friday. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue for this period across the Cascade Gaps, influenced from the strong pressure gradients. The raw ensembles suggest a >50% prob for gusts exceeding to 30 mph over the Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas Valley today and tomorrow in the afternoons, but mainly the Gorge for Friday afternoon also. There is a 30-40% chance of gusts at 35 mph as well. Otherwise, winds will remain breezy for the remaining forecast area. Temperatures will remain mainly in the 70s and 80s across majority of the forecast area through this term. However, the Columbia Basin will be in the high 80s and low 90s before slightly cooling by few degrees tomorrow into Friday. RH values continue in recovery through Friday as this weak system passes. Feaster/97 LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Warm, dry conditions prevail through the weekend before the system arrives Monday and Tuesday. Showers will develop across the Southern Blues and eastern mountains with a slight chance (<30%) of thunderstorms over the high terrains of central OR Monday evening. Severity is less likely due to weak instability and low moisture level, though CG lightning could be threatening. Temperatures remain trending upward into next week with RHs gradually decreasing to the teens and 20s. Sunday onwards, temps will reach into the 90s or higher with Monday and Tuesday being our warmest and driest days of this period with temperatures reaching to the low 100s across the Columbia Basin (>60% confidence). That said, this could potentially raise concerns for critical fire conditions. Heat Risk will remain moderate across most of the forecast area Sunday and beyond, but with portions of the Columbia Basin remaining in pockets of Major Heat Risk Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be light with occasional breezes for this long term period. Feaster/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 58 82 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 61 81 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 PSC 58 84 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 56 81 53 81 / 0 10 0 0 HRI 59 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 55 75 54 77 / 0 10 0 0 RDM 45 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 54 80 51 78 / 10 10 0 0 GCD 51 83 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 59 76 57 80 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....97 AVIATION...74

352 FXUS65 KREV 260729 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1229 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with brief elevated fire weather concerns today. * Temperatures return to seasonal averages, then rise to above average this weekend. * Next week, rain and storm chances return, while above average temperatures persist for early July. && .DISCUSSION... A disturbance over Baja California today will bring a slight wobble in the pressure gradient, continuing the trend of breezy afternoon winds and low chances of showers. Like yesterday, there is a 5% chance for showers in Mono county today. However, NE CA can be added into the mix, with a 5% chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm to develop. Afternoon breezes make their return again today, with gusts up to 30 mph for much of W NV valleys, including Reno, Carson City, and Minden. Gusts up to 35 mph along the Sierra and in W NV aren`t out of the question. Coupled with low humidities, 3-6 hours of localized critical fire weather are likely today, mainly for W NV valleys. A warming trend continues this week, topping out Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for W NV and getting into the mid 70s and 80s for Sierra communities. Moderate HeatRisk can be expected for much of the area Sunday and Monday. We could see light showers and thunderstorms along the OR border those days. By Tuesday, a low off the coast of southern California may begin to impact the area. Possible impacts include afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily along the OR border. However, model guidance is mixed. Stay tuned for more details as we get closer. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail for all terminals today, with westerly afternoon gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, most likely between 26/21Z-27/03Z. KMMH has a less than 5% chance for isolated showers today. If a shower does form, gusty and erratic winds may materialize in the vicinity. Best chances will be between 26/21Z-27/03Z. -Giralte/HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

712 FXUS66 KSTO 252008 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 108 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures accompanied by dry weather and periodically breezy onshore winds through the remainder of the week. A warming trend to widespread Moderate HeatRisk is then anticipated over the the weekend into next week. Isolated mountain thunderstorms return this weekend into early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Through Friday: -Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected, with Delta, Valley, and foothills high temperatures in the 80s to 90s and 70s to 80s in the mountains -Minor HeatRisk expected through Thursday with some areas of Moderate HeatRisk on Friday * This Weekend - Early Next Week: -Warming trend into the weekend with high temperatures across the Delta, Valley, and foothills in the 90s to lower triple digits and 80s to low 90s expected at higher elevations. -Widespread Moderate HeatRisk returns to interior NorCal by Saturday and persists into next week -Probability of Valley high temperatures > 100F: Northern/Portions of the Central Sacramento Valley: 65-95%; Delta, S. Sac Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 10-30% -Slight (10-20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms this weekend through early next week during the afternoon and early evening hours across the mountains of interior NorCal. Highest chances early next week. .Changes from previous forecast... -Slight increase in thunderstorm potential early to mid next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds generally under 15 knots, except in the northern Sacramento Valley where surface gusts up to 20 knots possible from around 21z today through 06z tomorrow. Small chance of marine layer intrusion in the Delta with lower ceilings around 1000 feet or less possible around 09 to 14z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

833 FXUS65 KMSO 260955 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 355 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms today, gusty outflow wind potential. - Seasonal temperatures and scattered showers for Friday into Saturday. - Hot and dry conditions return for the first part of next week. An approaching trough is causing the upper level flow to become southwesterly today. A subtle disturbance is traversing the region in this flow pattern which is kicking off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across north central Idaho into west central Montana this morning. The focus of the convection is anticipated to shift to Lemhi county and southwest Montana by this afternoon. A few of these storms could become fairly strong this afternoon with the potential of producing gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain. A weak trough will be over the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday keeping the temperatures near seasonal along with some scattered shower activity. Northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide appear to have the best chance of receiving showers, especially during the afternoon hours. A strong ridge of high pressure builds over the region Sunday into the first part of next week causing temperatures to warm dramatically. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across north central Idaho and west central Montana this morning, mainly affecting KMSO and KHRF. The focus of the convection will shift to the south by this afternoon with KSMN, KHRF and KBTM having the greatest potential for being impacted by the storm. This afternoon`s convection will have the potential of producing gusty erratic winds, small hail and heavy rain at the terminals. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

773 FXUS65 KBOI 260827 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 227 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night... Weak surface cold front from near Missoula/MT through Burns/OR, and supported by an upper level short wave trough in western WA and OR, was still able to produce isolated thunderstorms in Adams and western Valley Counties early this morning. The front and upper trough will move east today, with the surface front dissipating as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. But we will still carry a 10-20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern Valley County/ID until sunset, when the upper trough exits into Montana. After that, no further chance of showers or thunderstorms in our CWA through Saturday night. Today will be 3-5 degrees cooler in eastern OR and west-central ID, but little if any cooling will be felt in southwest and south- central ID. Winds will become west/northwest 10-20 mph this afternoon, or not much stronger than the usual diurnal winds. A broad but shallow upper trough over the eastern Pacific and western North America will keep temps near normal through Saturday, with skies staying partly cloudy in the north and mostly clear in the south. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will begin a warming trend as a flat upper ridge comes in from the west. Later Sunday the ridge will amplify not only from the west but also from the southern Great Basin, while a Pacific upper low sets up off southern California. Monday and Tuesday will be hot with valley high temps 95 to 100 degrees. Southerly flow aloft between the Pacific low and the inland ridge will bring mid-level moisture into our CWA beginning Sunday night, and leading to a 15-25 percent chance of high-based, mainly dry thunderstorms Monday, with increasing fire-weather danger south of the Snake Basin in ID and over all of southeast OR. The Pacific low is then forecast inland over CA Tuesday, while the hot upper ridge breaks down over OR and WA, a process also known to be associated with increased fire-weather danger. By then, high-based thunderstorms should increase on the Idaho side as mid-level moisture continues to move north through the Great Basin. Wednesday and Thursday will continue the breakdown of the upper ridge from the northwest, eventually leading to a cooling upper trough and drier westerly flow over WA and OR. But thunderstorms and hot weather will likely continue in ID, with a cold front in western ID possibly enhancing the storms. && .AVIATION...VFR. Weak, isolated showers/thunderstorms near KMYL this morning, then shifting east into central ID and continuing until sunset. Scattered middle clouds and broken high clouds elsewhere. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt this morning, then SW-NW 10-20 kt this afternoon, calming by sunset. Winds aloft at 10 Kft MSL: SW 10-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. High clouds. Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Scattered-broken mid level clouds north. Mostly clear south. No pcpn. Light W surface winds. Moderate W winds aloft. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....LC

169 FXUS65 KLKN 260910 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID 210 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 204 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 * Slow warming trend continues through this week with temperatures rising back above normal levels by the weekend. * Afternoon breezes the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 204 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Dry quiet conditions will continue through next week with temperatures slowly rising each day. Upper level ridge forecast to expand and intensify over the great basin and will be the primary influence on sensible weather for NE Nevada through the Independence day holiday. Temperatures will start in the low 80s to low 90s for highs, and the upper 40s to upper 50s for morning lows, rising to the mid 90s to mid 100s for highs and lows reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s by the weekend. Weak perturbations in the flow from passing northern stream systems will help to occasionally tighten the pressure gradient boosting afternoon winds, as well as bringing some moisture and instability into the area, allowing for isolated thunderstorms to build over the far north and eastern part of NV during the afternoon starting Saturday, and again next Monday. Winds will be light to breezy out of the west to southwest at 5 to 15mph with gusts up to 25mph possible. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high as models are in very good agreement on the course of upper level ridging building across the region leading to very warm temperatures over the period. | && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast at all terminals through Friday. Winds during the afternoons will be generally westerly at 5KT to 15KT with a few gusts up to 25KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns will be elevated for the period as building high pressure keeps warming trend on track through the week. However afternoon SW winds at 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph will be breezy, and afternoon min RH values do drop below 15%, both will avoid reaching critical values for the period. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98