001 FXUS66 KSEW 070953 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 153 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Active weather continues through the week, with a potent atmospheric river still on track to impact western Washington Monday into Wednesday. Additional systems are forecast for late in the week. Minor coastal flooding due to high astronomical tides will remain possible for the Salish Sea coastlines into the first part of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: * RAIN: A weather system has arrived early this morning and will produce rain throughout the day. QPF amounts will be around 1-2 inches in the Cascades, and a quarter to half inch in the lowlands. A strong atmospheric river will arrive on Monday, producing an extended period of heavy rain through Wednesday. The forecast has remained on track from the previous change of having a greater focus on QPF shifted slightly south. From areas generally of Seattle south, 2.5 to 5 inches of rain is still favored. The Olympics and Cascades are on track to receive 6-10 inches, with locally higher amounts receiving nearly 12 inches of rain through late Wednesday night. * WIND: Monday will be windy, particularly in areas south of Seattle. Southwesterly wind will pick up Monday morning and remain elevated into the overnight period. Expect gusts of 35 to 40 mph, tapering off into late Monday night. * COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding remains possible as the high astronomical tide cycle has shifted more so to the Salish Sea into Monday. While the tides will generally be below or just close to thresholds, affects from heightened river flows or wind effects on Monday could exacerbate the inundation around high tide. The rain from the atmospheric river will persist throughout the day on Monday, sinking slightly southward into the evening. The moisture axis will lift north and pulse back up again Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a number of area rivers reaching moderate to major flood stage, more of which can be found in the hydrology section. 21 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The ongoing, strong atmospheric river will impact Tuesday, with the model indications showing that the moisture plume will pulse back to the north again, but not enough to keep the heavier rain rates going in the northern sections of the CWA. By around midday on Wednesday, the hose like precipitation will be tapering off more significantly as the atmospheric river loses steam. That said, don`t expect a full break in the precipitation. Additional systems bringing rain are forecast for later in the week. There are some ensemble differences in whether the ridge will rebuild and force some of the precipitation to the north, or keep the pattern fairly progressive. This will be a significant week of rainfall. The overarching message has not changed in that there will be widespread river flooding and likely more urban and small stream flooding as well. 21 && .AVIATION... West-southwest flow aloft will continue through today as a frontal system moves across Western Washington. Widespread MVFR cigs early this morning with areas of IFR cigs as well. Rain continues to spread northwards ahead of the next weather system, with steady, stratiform rain through this morning. Post-frontal showers are expected this afternoon. MVFR/IFR cigs into this afternoon, with some localized improvements to VFR generally after 00z, particularly in central and northern Puget Sound. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR cigs expected tonight into Monday morning. Vsbys may briefly lower to 2-5 statute miles this morning during the steadier precipitation. S/SW surface winds through the TAF period will increase this morning, with gusts peaking between 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon. KSEA... MVFR cigs early this morning. Predominantly MVFR cigs expected into the afternoon. Cigs may lower into IFR late morning, mainly between 17 to 21z, with current probabilities of IFR cigs around 30%. BKN MVFR cigs mainly 22z onwards in a post-frontal airmass, with brief periods of low-end VFR possible in the evening. MVFR cigs then expected late tonight into Monday. Steadier rain this morning, will taper to showers after 19-20z. Brief vsby reductions to 3 to 5 statute miles this morning during the rain. South winds of 5 to 10 kts this morning will transition more SW between 19 to 20z and increase, with gusts this afternoon ranging 20 to 25 kts. JD && .MARINE... A weather system will move across the waters today, with increasing south to southwest winds. Small Craft Advisory winds are expected for the majority of waters this afternoon. SCA winds will mainly be driven by gusts, with wind gusts peaking between 20 to 30 kts during this period. Winds will briefly subside this evening into tonight. A stronger weather system will then move into the waters on Monday, with winds peaking Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A Gale Warning has been issued for the Coastal Waters due to the high confidence of gale force wind gusts on Monday. Gale Watches have also been issued for Puget Sound and northern inland waters on Monday, with the probability of gales ranging 60 to 90 percent, with the highest probabilities along portions of Puget Sound. In addition, a westerly push is expected late Monday into Monday night for the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and additional headlines will be necessary. Winds will briefly subside on Tuesday, with another weather system Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing increased winds. Seas will range 7 to 9 feet into tonight, before building to 13 to 16 feet on Monday. Seas will remain elevated above 10 feet through midweek. JD && .HYDROLOGY... A series of wet weather systems moving across the region will increase the threat of river flooding early next week. While there`s still some uncertainty in the precipitation amounts with an atmospheric river moving into the region, confidence continues to increase that a widespread river flooding event will commence late Monday and continue through much of the week. Multiple rivers flowing off the Cascades and the Olympics are forecast to reach Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stage. While uncertainty does remain in regards to the exact flood levels and stages through the next week, it will be critical to monitor the forecasts through the next seven days. Additional precipitation is also possible Thursday into Friday, which will keep rivers elevated through the second half of the week. The series of wet systems will also start to elevate the landslide risk across the region. As soils become more saturated next week, there will be an increased potential for landslides and debris flows on burn scars. Urban and small stream flooding, as well as areas with poor drainage, should be alert to the potential for localized nuisance flooding. Low water crossings may become impacted or impassable. 14/62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PST this morning for Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Monday for Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County. Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside- Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley- Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

684 FXUS66 KPQR 071226 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 426 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A steady, moisture-rich pattern continues through midweek as two strong atmospheric river surges arrive Monday and again Tuesday night to Wednesday. Today will see comparatively lighter rainfall, but conditions become increasingly impactful Monday and Tuesday as deep subtropical moisture and stronger winds move inland. River rises and localized flooding will need close attention through the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...Light to moderate rainfall will continue at intervals today under upper level zonal flow. A passing disturbance this evening will maintain steady but manageable rain rates, with amounts today lower than what is expected early in the week. Rainfall totals through tonight are projected to reach 0.2 to 0.4 inch across the interior lowlands, 0.4 to 0.8 inch along the coast, 0.8 to 2.0 inch in the Coast Range, and 1 to 2.5 inches in the Cascades. These totals alone are not expected to produce widespread impacts, but they will further saturate soils ahead of the first major surge of moisture on Monday. Sunday night into Monday marks the transition to a significantly wetter regime as the first atmospheric river strengthens offshore and moves inland. IVT values Monday are expected to rise sharply, reaching 600 to 800 kg/ms in many ensemble members. Confidence is high that this surge will produce widespread heavy rain beginning Monday morning, with notably heavier rain amounts beginning Monday evening and continuing overnight into early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts for Monday continue to increase each model cycle. Current expectations from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Tuesday place 1.25 to 2.50 inches across the interior lowlands, with the highest amounts centered over southwest Washington, where 1.9 to 2.2 inches are likely in the Portland-Vancouver corridor. Coastal areas will see 3 to 4.5 inches, the Coast Range 4.5 to 7 inches, and the Cascades 4 to 7 inches. The Lane County Cascades will be lower, generally 0.75 to 1.75 inches. These amounts will occur on already softened ground, prompting notable river responses and elevated hydrologic concerns (see hydrology section below for more details). Winds will likely be a significant impact on Monday through Wednesday, notably on Monday. Confidence is high that inland locations will experience gusts of at least 30 mph on Monday, while coastal communities and headlands will see at least 40 mph. There is a 5 to 10% chance of advisory-level southwesterly gusts of 45 mph or greater within the Willamette Valley on Monday. Along the coast and the Coast Range, there is a 40 to 60% probability of gusts reaching or exceeding 50 mph. Should gusts of this magnitude occur, scattered downed trees and power outages will be possible. Given that soils are already wet and will continue to saturate further, root stability will be compromised, raising the risk of tree damage and associated impacts. The second atmospheric river surge arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday and will closely follow the substantial rainfall produced on Monday. IVT values with this second wave generally center around 700 to 800 kg/ms, with ensemble solutions allowing for a high-end scenario of 850 to 950 kg/ms and a lower scenario of 550 to 650 kg/ms. The duration of this second round may be longer than the first surge, maintaining high confidence in additional heavy rainfall. Rainfall on Tuesday will be somewhat moderated during the day, but heavier rates redevelop Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday. Overall from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday, expect 3.5 to 5 inches across the interior lowlands, with the highest amounts over southwest Washington and lowest amounts in the southern Willamette Valley. The Portland/Vancouver corridor will likely receive 4.5 to 5 inches. Coastal areas will see 5.5 to 8.25 inches (highest amounts in Tillamook), the Coast Range 8.25 to 12 inches, and the Cascades 7.5 to 11 inches. Similar to Monday, the Lane County Cascades will be lower, generally 4 to 7.5 inches. Combined totals from both surges will be substantial and will almost certainly produce localized flooding somewhere in the forecast area. Rivers draining the Coast Range remain the most sensitive to rapid rises. Winds will stay elevated Tuesday and Wednesday, though Monday remains the peak wind day. Inland gusts around 30 mph and coastal gusts around 40 mph are expected during this period, with the potential for isolated stronger gusts depending on the timing of each frontal passage. Again, due to saturated soils and compromised root stability, scattered downed trees and power outages will be possible. Snow levels will remain well above 6000 ft through midweek due to the warm subtropical air mass, ensuring that nearly all precipitation in the Cascades falls as rain. By Thursday and Friday, the moisture plume weakens and transitions toward a showery pattern. Conditions will gradually ease, but rivers and soils will remain sensitive due to cumulative rainfall. Forecast confidence is moderate regarding the timing and intensity of Mondays surge and moderate for the Tuesday to Wednesday period due to spread within the ensemble clusters. Overall, the early to midweek timeframe remains the primary focus for hydrologic and wind-related impacts. See the hydrology section below for discussion related to the Flood Warnings/Watches and river forecasts. ~12 && .HYDROLOGY... A series of frontal systems will keep conditions very wet through the weekend and much of next week. The most notable period will be late Monday through late Wednesday, when a prolonged atmospheric river will bring significant rainfall and the potential for widespread river flooding across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. There is a 10% chance for 72-hour rain amounts (from 4 AM Monday through 4 AM Thursday) up to one foot in the Cascades and Coast Range, up to 8-10 inches at the coast, and up to 7.5-8.5 inches in the Willamette Valley, Portland/Vancouver metro and Cowlitz Valley. While rain amounts this high are unlikely to occur, they represent a reasonable worst case scenario, and are only 1-3 inches higher than the official forecast. This worst case scenario would result in widespread moderate to major flooding. Although rain will likely become lighter Thursday into Friday, the threat of flooding will linger along slow responding rivers. Most rivers draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills have a 30-75% chance of reaching moderate flood stage and a 20-50% chance of reaching major flood stage. Additionally, several Willamette River tributaries that drain from the Coast Range and Cascades have anywhere from a 60-80% chance of reaching minor flood stage and a 20-40% chance of reaching moderate flood stage. Flooding of the Willamette mainstem rivers is unlikely to occur (less than 10%). Probabilities for specific river points can be found at the National Water Prediction Service website, which do vary quite a bit from river to river. There is also increasing confidence in the potential for flooding along small creeks and streams as well as urban flooding, including roadway flooding. Water pooling on roadways will increase the risk of hydroplaning and car accidents. Periods of heavy rain will also increase the risk for landslides in areas of steep terrain and debris flows over recently burned areas. People, structures, and roads located below steep slopes, in canyons, and near the mouths of canyons may be at serious risk from rapidly moving landslides. A Flood Watch remains for all of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Friday. Considering increased confidence and probabilities for flooding of rivers and urban areas as the forecasted event approaches, a Flood Warning has been issued for the following rivers, which currently have the highest chance of reaching at least minor flood stage within the next 36-48 hours: Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County, from Monday evening to late Tuesday morning. This river has a 75% chance of reaching moderate flooding and a 50% chance of reaching major flooding. Grays River at Covered Bridge near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County, from Monday evening to early Thursday morning. This river has a 70% chance of reaching moderate flooding and a 50% chance of reaching major flooding. Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Clackamas and Multnomah Counties, from Monday evening to late Wednesday evening. This creek has a 70% chance of reaching moderate flooding, and a 60% chance of reaching major flooding. && .AVIATION...At 1130z Sunday, a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs and visibilities were being observed across the area, with predominately VFR cigs inland and predominately MVFR at the coast. That said, still expecting MVFR cigs to become more widespread for inland areas through 18z Sunday as persistent stratiform rain continues across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington and probabilities for cigs below 3000 ft increase to 60-80%. There is also a 15-25% chance for periods of IFR cigs Sunday morning and afternoon, except 50-60% at KAST and 80-90% at KONP. By 00z Monday, expect persistent stratiform rain to transition over to light rain showers. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Persistent light rain will continue through 19-20z Sunday before transitioning to off and on light rain showers. Expect VFR cigs to eventually fall to high-end MVFR thresholds by approximately 14z Sunday. This is also when low level wind shear will increase. With SW winds around 30-35 kt at 2000 ft and 5-10 kt winds out of the SE to E at the surface, there will be a period of modest low level wind shear at KTTD and KPDX Sunday morning. -23 && .MARINE...A frontal system moving over the coastal waters this morning will bring the continuation of south to southwest winds with wind gusts upwards of 20-35 kt, strongest over the central and southern waters where a marginal Gale Warning remains in effect. Winds will decrease substantially Sunday afternoon and evening, resulting in a brief period of benign conditions with seas under 8-9 ft and wind gusts falling below 20 kt. However, this break will be short-lived. A relatively stronger frontal system is set to arrive on Monday, bringing gale force wind gusts up to 35-45 kt, strongest over the inner waters and near the Columbia River Bar. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings now that confidence levels are high and probabilities for gale force gusts are up to 80-90%. With the increasing winds, seas will become steep and hazardous Monday afternoon into Monday night. Expect seas to peak somewhere between 14 to 17 ft. Seas decrease slightly Tuesday into Wednesday but remain above 10 ft, with a period of breezy westerly winds up to 25-30 kt likely Tuesday night (70-80% chance). Seas and winds subside late in the week. -23 && .BEACH HAZARDS...Tidal overflow flooding is possible around high tide on Monday and Tuesday, December 8-9. Despite total tide forecasts decreasing over the coming days, river levels will be rapidly rising due to a prolonged period of heavy rain Monday through Wednesday. With several coastal rivers likely to reach at least 80% of flood flow and total tide forecasts peaking near or slightly above 9.5 ft, Coastal Flood Advisories may need to be issued along all of portions of the coast if confidence increases. Since the high tide alone will not be enough to cause tidal overflow flooding, the outcome will be highly dependent on which watersheds receive the heaviest rainfall and thus which rivers reach at least 80% of flood flow. The timing of river level rises will matter too, as it will need to coincide with high tide. On Monday, river levels will be rising quickly, but it appears rivers may stay below 80% of flood flow during high tide before climbing above 80% Monday evening/night. If the timing is correct, this should mitigate flood concerns around high tide. On Tuesday, confidence is higher coastal rivers will reach at least 80% of flood flow during high tide, but that is when the total tide generally dips below 9.5 ft. Will need to monitor both days closely and see how the river forecasts evolve. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210- 251-271. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-251-271. Gale Warning until noon PST today for PZZ252-253-272-273. Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ252-253- 272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

584 FXUS66 KMFR 071145 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 345 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .DISCUSSION...A warm front will bring light to occasionally moderate rain to the north coast, Douglas County and northern Cascades late this morning. The rain will gradually spread to the south coast, coastal mountains and Cascades (south of highway 140) this afternoon into tonight. With a strong westerly flow aloft, rainfall is expected to be mainly along and west of the Cascades with dry weather likely mostly hours and locations east of the Cascades, but it will be windy in the afternoon with the strongest winds over the ridges. However winds should remain below advisory criteria. Precipitation will gradually diminish from south to north and ending during the day Monday as the frontal boundary shifts north of the forecast area. The general consensus Tuesday and Wednesday keeps the bulk of the rainfall north of the forecast area. However moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation is expected in northern Douglas and Coos County. These areas could see 1-4 inches of rainfall. The one grey area could be Tuesday with some of the operational models and individual ensemble members suggesting the frontal boundary could slip far enough south to bring moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation for a brief period of time to the area Tuesday before the core of heavier precipitation lifts back north as an upper ridge builds over the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. ECMWF and GEFS members keep the main moisture axis to the north. The 0Z deterministic GFS and NAM show a strong 700MB jet of 65-70kt, which could bring wind headlines north of Highway 140. We have increased wind speeds over the east side, but will adjust as new data become available. There`s good agreement upper ridging will build over the area the latter part of the week and lasting into the start of next weekend with the storm track likely to remain north of the area. Therefore, it`s more than likely we`ll be dry with mild temperatures in the afternoon. -Petrucelli && .AVIATION...07/12z TAFs...Mid and high clouds over the area with areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in low clouds in valleys west of the Southern Oregon Cascades, including Medford and Grants Pass areas through 18z. In the Umpqua valley, VFR ceilings are likely to continue through 18z, then ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR late this morning through this afternoon and could lower further to IFR late this evening and tonight with reduction in visibility. Along the coast and just offshore, a mix MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with rain moving in. East of the Cascades, VFR are expected to be the predominate condition through the TAF period, although the higher terrain could be partly obscured after 21z. Moderate to strong winds aloft today will result in mountain wave turbulence along and east of the Cascades with stronger winds near and at the ridges. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 7, 2025...South winds increase through the day today as another wet front approaches the region. Gusty winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco will spread to all of the southern Oregon waters Monday, with Gales and/or very steep seas possible north of Cape Arago. Conditions remain unsettled through the first part of next week, with several fronts bringing periods of gusty south winds and a likelihood of high and steep seas. -BPN/Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-370. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for PZZ350- 370. && $$

152 FXUS66 KEKA 070826 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1226 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cloudy and misty conditions expected this morning. A warm front with light rain and drizzle passes over Del Norte and Humboldt counties today. Generally dry weather conditions is expected to prevail across NW CA this coming week, with periods of light rain/drizzle for the North Coast. && .DISCUSSION...A stubborn high pressure center has been sitting off the California coast for a few weeks now. The strength of the high pressure has been keeping the storm track far to the north of NW CA for the last few weeks. This slower start to winter will continue this week with increased moisture, yet not enough forcing will be present to create meaningful precipitation amounts as most of the vertical vorticity of a frontal system to the north will be focused in Oregon, only briefly and periodically clipping NW CA. The increased atmospheric moisture will create fog and low clouds along the coast and in the inland valleys. Increased cloud coverage will keep nighttime temperatures on the warmer side for the season. A passing warm front will bring light rain and/or drizzle across mostly Del Norte and Humboldt counties later today. Total storm precipitation amounts will be minimal and mostly north of Humboldt Bay and West of the Klamath River. REFS probabilities shows only a 20-30% chance of wetting rain in Del Norte and a 0-15% chance of wetting rain in northern Humboldt Co. Elsewhere, drier weather conditions will prevail with morning valley fog, mist and low clouds. High pressure slowly builds back over the area next week in the wake of the frontal passages. The general consensus between the ensemble and operational models is dry weather conditions across much of Northwest California, with intermittent light rain/drizzle in Del Norte County through Thursday at the earliest. The dry weather allows for a gradual warming trend through the week, with interior high temperatures warming up to mid 60s to mid 70s late in the week peaking on Thursday. Some ensembles are indicating a pattern change by mid December but there is a large amount of uncertainty as it is too far out in time to have any true meaning for the forecasts. -ZVS/DES && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)...Periods of LIFR to IFR stratus will continue into early Sunday for coastal areas ahead of an approaching front. Light rain is possible over Humboldt and Del Norte starting early Sunday morning around 12Z. Some interior valleys may see stratus and fog again tonight, but confidence at UKI is lower. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds and seas have eased as front moves in north of our area. Generally light winds are forecast this weekend, with south winds forecast north of Cape Mendocino and west-northwest winds forecast south of the Cape. A mid period northwest swell will continue and peak at around 7-9 ft at 12 seconds. Wave heights peak early Sunday morning. Combined seas could briefly reach or exceed 10 ft, especially if the swell fills in higher than forecast. Seas subside Sunday and Monday as this swell decays. Light winds continue into early next week, but seas will remain elevated as a series of mid-period northwest swells fill in from systems to the north. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

165 FXUS66 KMTR 071157 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 357 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 320 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Benign conditions through the next seven days with a gradual warming trend - Impacts from Tule Fog continue in the North Bay and interior East Bay valleys, with potential for expansion across the rest of the Bay Area tonight - Next chance for rain towards the middle of the month && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 321 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 (Today and tonight) Rinse and repeat kind of weather for the short term. Very similar to what was observed 24 hours ago in the broader scheme of things. Longwave pattern continues to show broad upper level ridging off the CA coast nosing its way into CA. A few high clouds are riding the northern periphery of the ridge. At the surface is where the impactful weather continues with and stratus covering the North Bay, East Bay, and portions of the Bay Area. Tule Fog is sneaking in from the Central Valley into the West Delta, North and East Bay. Patchy dense fog will be possible through mid morning with vsby less than one mile at times. The Central Coast on the other hand remains cloud free. Stratus didn`t really clear yesterday over the North Bay so that is the question for today? Will Santa Rosa see some sunshine? Latest guidance says yes, but very late in the day. As such, undershot max temps from the NBM for the North and East Bay with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. Other locations will see more sunshine and warming temperatures into the mid 50s and 60s. Expecting a similar pattern again tonight with some stratus and intruding Tule Fog. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 321 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 (Monday through Saturday) No major updates for the extended as we`re locked in with this ridge of high pressure dominating the overall weather through at least next Friday. That means, some night and morning clouds like we`ve been having. Tule Fog will still advect into the Bay Area from time to time. The ridge is expected to build with higher heights. The stratus deck will compress with a gradual warming trend over the region. Still looking at 70 plus degrees across the Central Coast Tuesday through Friday. The amount of clouds cover over the North and East Bay will likely impact max temps and limit warming potential early in the week, but ease as the high pressure builds. Rain chances still exist for the middle of the month, but odds are decreasing. Latest CPC has backed off with near normal or below normal chances for precip through December 20. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Tule fog pattern still strongly dominating the region. Based on persistence, low confidence in actually clearing for North Bay terminals. These areas have a slight chance of seeing IFR/LIFR all day again today. High confidence in clearing for Bay Area terminals (sans KLVK), but stratus and fog will be patchy through sunrise. Vicinity of SFO...Patch of stratus and fog moving along the peninsula likely to persist through sunrise, clearing to VFR in the few hours following. Otherwise quiet and clear through the afternoon with stratus returning this evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Light drainage offshore winds overnight with light onshore flow during the afternoons. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 321 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Winds are reducing across the waters, but breezy northwest winds linger into the middle of next work week with the strongest winds focused on the southern waters. Moderate seas with wave heights 6 to 8 feet across the outer waters this weekend. A new, long period northwesterly swell is anticipated by Wednesday of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006- 506-508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

341 FXUS66 KOTX 071220 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 420 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread precipitation on Sunday. Light snow for the northern valleys and mountains with rain elsewhere. - Strong west to southwest winds Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. - Increased potential for rises along small creeks and streams and rock slides next week due to a warm and wet weather pattern. && .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will impact the area through the week. A series of warm and wet systems will move through. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures, mountain snow, and mid to low elevation rain. Widespread strong wind gusts are expected Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through tonight: After a very brief break in precipitation, an active weather pattern is setting up and will move in tomorrow. A frontal passage will result in lowland rain and mountain snow as temperatures moderate and warm, moist air moves into the area. PWATs will rise from 90-100% of normal to 150-200% of normal by tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, temperatures will be 5-6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Apart from some cold air remaining over the Methow Valley, snow levels will be 3000-4000 feet. Right now, NBM probabilities for 24-hr rainfall totals show Spokane down to Pullman having a 35-45% chance of seeing 0.25 inches of rain or more through tomorrow night. In the Idaho Panhandle, those probabilities increase to 70% and above. For snowfall, Lookout Pass has a 49% chance of seeing three or more inches of snow, and Stevens Pass has a 15% chance. Winds throughout the basin and WA/ID Palouse will continue gusting to 20-25 mph in the afternoon due to the surface pressure gradient remaining strong. Monday through Wednesday: Monday through Wednesday is when a series of atmospheric rivers impact the forecast area. With warm and moist air moving in, PWATs will rise to 200-250% of normal on Monday and Wednesday. Snow levels remain high at 3000-5000 feet, meaning most mid and low elevation areas will see rain. By early Tuesday morning, NBM probabilities of 24-hour rainfall give Spokane, CdA, Deer Park, Sandpoint, and Pullman an 80% chance of 0.25 inches of rain. By Thursday morning, much of the basin areas have a 50-60% chance and above of 72-hr rainfall totals near 0.5 inches. Snowfall along mountain passes will be heavy. Tuesday into Wednesday, 24-hour snow totals indicate that Lookout and Stevens Passes have a 10-20% of 6 inches of snow. As you move into the northern Cascades, those totals rise even more. With this heavier snowfall, expect wintry conditions along mountain passes. Winter headlines are looking more and more likely, especially for the wetter system moving through on Wednesday. With a potent surface low dropping down into Montana Monday night into Tuesday, the surface pressure gradient will tighten even further, resulting in strong south to southwest winds. While 20-25 mph wind gusts will be widespread, the basin and Palouse in particular will see stronger winds. NBM probabilities show a 50-60% chance of the basin and Palouse areas seeing wind gusts 45 mph or higher. With high res models such as the HREF showing similar probabilities, growing confidence in these higher wind gusts supports potential wind headlines. Snow levels being so high will result in increased chances of hydrological impacts occurring alongside wintry travel conditions and high winds. A Hydrologic Outlook has already been issued for next week indicating rises on small creeks and streams due to low elevation snowmelt. Any moderate or high impact burn scars will continued to be monitored closely for any potential impacts. Additionally, there will be an increased risk for mud and rock slides in areas of steep terrain. The Extreme Forecast Index continues to show very anomalously high QPF, wind/wind gusts, and temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. This further supports the increased chances of winter and wind headlines, alongside hydrological impacts. Additionally, clusters currently show the ridge remaining over the area and continued elevated PWATs Thursday through Saturday, indicating that the active weather will continue. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlook indicates increased chances of higher than normal temperatures and precipitation. /AS && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: An incoming system is spreading a cloud shield across the Inland Northwest. Ceiling height for TAF sites will begin decreasing to MVFR/IFR through the 19Z with rain chances increasing. HREF probabilities show those sites having a 40-60 percent chance of dropping to IFR excluding LWS. Basin locations will see winds increase in the 23-06Z as a weak boundary pushes in from the south. Drier air behind the boundary will decrease cloud coverage allowing for conditions to improve to VFR overnight. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence in the return of widespread MVFR/IFR conditions through 19Z. Moderate to high confidence in rain continuing into next period. Moderate confidence in wind gusts returning during afternoon. /JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 44 39 50 41 46 37 / 100 40 100 90 50 80 Coeur d`Alene 43 38 49 41 46 37 / 90 70 100 100 60 90 Pullman 45 40 50 42 47 38 / 100 60 100 100 80 90 Lewiston 50 43 54 48 53 44 / 90 50 100 90 80 90 Colville 39 31 46 32 45 31 / 100 40 100 80 30 70 Sandpoint 40 36 45 38 44 34 / 100 90 100 100 60 90 Kellogg 41 39 47 41 45 37 / 100 90 100 100 80 90 Moses Lake 48 37 52 41 49 38 / 80 10 70 50 40 70 Wenatchee 46 39 50 41 48 38 / 90 20 80 80 40 80 Omak 41 34 44 35 45 33 / 80 20 80 70 20 70 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

636 FXUS66 KPDT 071213 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 413 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .DISCUSSION... Broad overview: The forecast through the middle to latter half of this week can be succinctly described as predominantly warm, wet, and windy. A subtropical high in the Pacific coupled with a persistent quasi-zonal to zonal jet stream and multiple frontal systems will direct several rounds of subtropical and tropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to rises on area rivers. Key Messages: 1. Breezy to locally windy today, then widespread windy to locally very windy Monday through Monday night. 2. Ample precipitation through Wednesday or Thursday will lead to rises on area rivers. 3. Low (10 percent) potential for snow in the Kittitas and Wallowa valleys Tuesday through Thursday. Light precipitation is spreading east-northeastward across the forecast area early this morning in response to low- to mid-level warm air advection (WAA) associated with a Pacific warm front. Snow levels are roughly 4500-5500 ft, and while light snow is anticipated for mountain passes across the Cascades and Blue Mountains, snow accumulations will likely (80 percent confidence) remain below advisory thresholds. Later this morning through afternoon, southwesterly to westerly winds are expected to ramp, with winds of 15-25 mph accompanied by gusts of 25-45 mph across wind-prone portions of the Columbia Plateau. Locally stronger winds are likely (75 percent confidence) along exposed ridges. Considered issuing a Wind Advisory for north-central Oregon, the foothills of the southern Blue Mountains, and the Simcoe Highlands from 10 AM to 4 PM PST, but opted to forgo due to medium-high confidence (60-70 percent) in reaching widespread advisory-level wind gusts. Will note that forecast soundings from the 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS show a well- mixed boundary layer during the period which would facilitate mixing of the forecast 40-50 kt low-level jet to the surface. Precipitation will turn more showery in nature later this afternoon into tonight and remain mostly confined to mountain areas. The next round of noteworthy precipitation is expected (80 percent confidence) to begin later Monday morning, persisting through Wednesday night as multiple frontal systems focus ample moisture from an atmospheric river. The best chance for precipitation in the lower elevations will be later Monday morning and afternoon through Wednesday as a boundary stalls over the region. While snow levels are forecast to remain relatively high through much of the week, there is a low (10 percent) chance that snow levels will be low enough to enable a wintry mix or all snow for the Kittitas Valley and other areas along the I-90 corridor up to Snoqualmie Pass Tuesday through Thursday. Moreover, this low- confidence scenario would also allow noteworthy snow in Wallowa County and across the mountain passes of Washington and the northern Blue Mountains. Monday looks to be windy to very windy across the Columbia Plateau as a strong low-level jet sets up over the region. Moreover, forecast soundings from the 00Z HREF and 00Z REFS show a well-mixed boundary layer similar to today, so confidence is medium-high (50-80 percent) in needing Wind Advisories for the majority of our low-elevation zones within the Columbia Basin area. There is also potential for a High Wind Warning, but confidence is low-medium (20-40 percent) in reaching those thresholds. On the subject of hydrologic concerns, current forecasts from the NWRFC in Portland place multiple rivers at action stage by Tuesday through Thursday of this week. && .AVIATION...12z TAFs...Variable conditions are possible this morning as a weak weather system moves through the region, providing for a chance of light rain showers across most TAF sites through the early afternoon. Only BDN/RDM will see low enough chances for -ra that no mention was made in the TAF. MVFR conditions are possible under showers, before gradual clearing takes place by the late afternoon / early evening. Winds are expected to pick up during the day as well, mainly out of the W/SW with gusts up to 20 kts at some sites, before decreasing heading into the evening. 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 55 42 59 46 / 90 40 80 70 ALW 53 44 58 47 / 90 60 90 80 PSC 56 43 59 47 / 80 20 70 50 YKM 52 36 54 41 / 80 20 80 80 HRI 57 43 61 47 / 90 30 70 70 ELN 47 34 48 37 / 90 30 80 80 RDM 55 37 57 42 / 40 30 50 50 LGD 45 38 50 43 / 90 70 90 90 GCD 49 38 52 44 / 90 50 70 70 DLS 56 47 58 49 / 100 60 100 90 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...74

616 FXUS65 KREV 070830 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1230 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected throughout the week. * A wetter pattern may arrive around and after the middle of December, but confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... A persistent blocking pattern will keep the region dry throughout the week and into the following weekend. Temperatures this week will remain warmer than normal, but additional warming after Monday will yield daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s from Tuesday onward -- which is about 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages. Stout inversions will likely result in hazy skies across lower valleys each morning this week, but haze should disperse in the afternoons. Tuesday into Wednesday presents the sole opportunity for showers this week, and even then, chances are only up to 30% and confined to areas nearest to the Oregon border. Ensembles continue to advertise a shift towards a wetter pattern -- at least to some extent -- during the week of December 15th. However, trends aren`t instilling much confidence as precipitation timing and intensity change with each new iteration. In other words, it`s increasingly likely we`ll finally shake this blocking pattern around mid-December, but the strength and timing of any winter storms that follow as a result are uncertain. -Salas && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light W/NW surface breezes continue across all regional terminals today. W/NW FL100 winds of 20-30 kts will continue to overspread NE CA and far NW NV today, which may result in minor LLWS issues and mountain wave turbulence east of the Sierra. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

896 FXUS66 KSTO 062110 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 110 PM PST Sat Dec 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of low clouds, mist, or fog continue in the Central Valley for the next few mornings - Seasonable temperatures and light winds are forecast over the next several days && .DISCUSSION... ...Today - Sunday... Stratus/Low clouds were more of the story this morning vs. fog dominating the forecast yesterday but still impacting much of the Central Valley and adjacent lower foothills. Out forecast remains on repeat with another round of low clouds/fog tonight into tomorrow morning with best chances Sacramento northward although fog is possible throughout all of the Valley. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecasted for the region, with upper 40s to 50s in the Valley and foothills, and 40s to 60s in the mountains for the daytime highs. Highs are trending several degrees cooler than initially forecasted due to the persistence of the fog/low clouds, keeping max temperatures from being fully actualized. ...Next Week... High pressure builds across the region next week, allowing for a gradual warming trend with high temperatures warming to the 50s to near 70 (mainly for areas outside of stratus/fog development). Dry conditions will continue through next week. Some ensembles are indicating a weak pattern change in mid December but there is a large amount of uncertainty as it is too far out in time. && .AVIATION... Lingering low cigs and mist across the Central Valley continues into this evening, although some sites may very briefly return to VFR conditions around 22-24Z. Another round of BF/FG and low stratus returns tonight after 03Z and continues through Sunday, with areas of MVFR/IFR conditions. Areas of LIFR in fog and low ceilings around 12-18Z, particularly in the Central Valley from Sacramento southward. Lingering low ceilings in stratus expected to persist through the day. Light and variable surface winds less than 12kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

838 FXUS65 KMSO 071021 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 321 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Heavy mountain snow, along with a wintry mix in the valleys will make for difficult travel conditions today - Significant rain and high elevation snow Monday through Wednesday may lead to hydrologic issues Banded showers continue this morning, bringing snow to mountain passes, and a wintry mix of rain, snow and sleet to valleys. Near-freezing surface temperatures will maintain variable road conditions, with rapid changes from wet to icy surfaces likely over short distances through mid morning. Increasing southwest-to-west winds today should scour out cold pools in persistent inversion valleys (e.g., Missoula, Kalispell), allowing temperatures to modify into the upper 30s. Precipitation will largely transition to orographic showers by late morning before reinvigorating this afternoon and evening. While valleys remain warm enough for rain, mountain passes, specifically Lolo, Lost Trail, and Marias, will accumulate an additional 2 to 6 inches of snow (25th to 75th percentile), presenting travel difficulties. On Monday, the first big surge of an incoming atmospheric river will spread anomalous amounts of moisture and mild air into the region. Snow levels will rise significantly through the day, peaking Monday night between 6000 to 7000 feet. Heavy rainfall is expected below this elevation, maximizing over North Central Idaho and Northwest Montana. Strong westerly flow aloft will induce distinct shadowing effects, limiting QPF somewhat in the valleys of Western Montana. Forecast models continue to show a brief lull in precipitation rates Tuesday afternoon before increasing once again Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. With this second wave of moisture there is quite a bit of uncertainty in snow levels, with some forecast models showing colder air settling into the region from the north and lowering snow levels potentially as low as 3500-4000 feet. This colder scenario (~25% chance) would bring potential for moderate to heavy snow into higher valleys and travel corridors, especially in northwest Montana. All in all, the 72 hr precipitation forecast (ending 5am Thursday) shows impressive totals, favoring north central Idaho and the higher terrain of northwest Montana. The 72-hour QPF (ending 12Z Thursday) indicates significant hydrologic input. Totals range from 0.50 to 2.00 inches in shadowed valleys and 2.50 to 5.00 inches (10th to 90th percentile) in North Central Idaho and the Northwest Montana terrain. The coincidence of heavy rain and melting low-elevation snowpack increases the risk of rapid rises on creeks and streams, ponding in poor drainage areas, and rock/mudslides. In addition, though not as visible to most, hazardous conditions will be in place in the backcountry above 6000 feet due to heavy snow and strong winds causing blowing snow and low visibility. && .AVIATION...Banded precipitation continues to produce widespread mountain obscurations across the Northern Rockies this morning. Valley terminals (KMSO, KGPI) are experiencing fluctuations between VFR and MVFR conditions due to visibility reductions in rain, snow, and sleet. A brief lull in precipitation is anticipated late morning, potentially allowing ceilings to lift to low-end VFR or high-MVFR. However, dynamic forcing returns after 21Z, lowering ceilings back to MVFR with widespread rain for the valleys and snow in the terrain into the overnight hours. Increasing winds aloft are expected this evening, with ridge top winds approaching 45 kts. Turbulence and low level wind shear will become a concern. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

497 FXUS65 KBOI 071055 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 355 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...For today, light precipitation will develop along a warm front as it lifts through the region. Models have trended drier with the initial band of precipitation this morning. Mountains will see light snow develop by early afternoon. At lower elevations areas closer to the foothills will see the best chance (30-50%) through the day. A weak upper trough passage tonight will give lower elevations the best chance for light rain while mtns see additional rain and snow. Snow levels start around 4kft this morning, rising to 5500-6500 feet this afternoon. This will give mtn valleys a chance for light accumulations through early afternoon (generally up to an inch). Above 6kft a general 3-6" inches is expected through Monday morning. For Monday through Tuesday night...We`re still looking at a lot of rain and high mountain snow across Baker County and the w-central Idaho mountains and Boise Mountains as these areas stay locked under a deep moisture plume. The bones of the forecast remain unchanged with precipitable water values rising to the 99th percentile and mid- level winds of 30-60 mph from late Monday through Tuesday night. The resulting steady light to moderate precipitation will result in liquid amounts of 1-2" and locally up to 2.5" through Tuesday night (with more to come beyond that). Made minor adjustments to snow levels (NBM has been running slightly high), but still looking at 7-8kft for much of the period. A passing wave could briefly bring them down to 6-6.5kft across the w-central Idaho mtns Tuesday, but they quickly rebound Tuesday night. This will limit accumulation to sites above 7kft, which will get pasted with 9-18" of wet snow. Higher peaks will also see gusty winds to 45 mph along with the rain/snow. Daytime mixing brings some of that wind to open higher terrain on Tuesday where gusts of 25 to 40 mph are forecast across SE Oregon and south of the Snake Plain. Being mainly an orographic event, rain chances/amounts fall off quickly across southeast Oregon and in the Snake Plain. Expect little if any rainfall along the northern NV border and even the Steens are going to miss out on much of the precipitation during this period. Temperatures are well above normal and most sites will see highs above freezing by Tuesday. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Mid to late this coming week continues to look wet and active. This is thanks to high pressure situated off of the west coast streaming Pacific moisture over our area. Mid-level flow at 500mb will be at a notable 50-70 kt come Wednesday, this will provide a strong moisture flux with PWs around the 97-99th percentile. Higher elevations will see most of the fun, with wind speeds up to 40-55 kt down to 700mb (roughly 10,000ft MSL) orographic lift will enhance precipitation in terrain. With that in mind, the greatest precip chances and totals will generally be in the terrain north of the Snake Plain, where the moisture flux is greatest and lift is enhanced. Precipitation chances north and east of the Snake plain will remain elevated with an 80-100% chance of precipitation through Thursday morning. Precipitation chance for that same period in and south of the Snake Plain generally will be within the 30-70% range. I hate to be the bearer of bad news for those who like snow recreation...But the warm air advection in the strong flow aloft will send snow levels skyward; ranging from 7-9 kft MSL on Wednesday, lowering slightly to 6.5-8 kft MSL come Thursday. A consequence of the high snow levels is that aside from the highest peaks, most of the area will see rain as the dominate precipitation type. Over the course of Wednesday morning through Friday morning, the highest peaks could see up to a foot of additional snowfall... but little to no accumulation is expected below 8 kft MSL. Conversely, over that same time frame, Liquid precipitation totals north and east of the Snake Plain are forecasted to be 0.75-1.75 inches. Generally 0.1-0.5 inches are expected in and south of the Snake Plain, southeast Oregon will have a lower range of up to a tenth. The strong flow aloft will stick around over our area through Friday morning, and will translate down to gusty winds at the surface. This will bring gusts of 25-50 mph across the area, with the higher end of that range seen on ridge tops and and typical trouble spots of the Snake Plain. Precipitation chances and winds die down Thursday afternoon into Friday as ridging begins to build overhead. This will push the mid- level jet and moisture stream north of our area and bring in higher pressure. This ridging will make valley inversions possible, subsequently putting fog and low stratus in play to end the week. With the warmer airmass, temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above normal throughout the long-term period. Although the possibility of inverted conditions introduces uncertainty into the late week temperatures as colder air could get trapped near the surface. && .AVIATION...Patchy fog early this morning. Rain and snow coverage increasing along/north of KBNO-KMUO-KSUN line this morning, then moving toward NV border by evening. MVFR/IFR and local LIFR in precip and low clouds. Mtns obscured. Snow levels: 4k-5k feet MSL this morning, then 5k-7k feet this afternoon. Surface winds: variable 10 kt, then SE-SW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 20-30 kt, increasing to 30-40 kt by Sun/15Z. KBOI...VFR with increasing clouds. Periods of rain and MVFR conditions Sun/17Z through Mon/05Z. Foothills obscured. Surface winds: SE 7-12 kt && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....NF AVIATION.....NF

061 FXUS65 KLKN 070802 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 * Quiet conditions with warming temperatures return Monday and Tuesday * Low chances for light showers across northern Elko county Wednesday into Thursday morning * Upper level ridging looks to be the dominant weather feature Friday into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025 Current forecast is on track. No changes have been made to the current seven day forecast. && .DISCUSSION... An upper trough will be well to the east today allowing the development of a ridge of high pressure that will build in across the Great Basin shoving the storm track that has been across the Pacific NW north into Canada. Models have recently hinted that this ridge may not be as strong as initially though as recently as yesterday. So While Monday and Tuesday look to be dry with quiet conditions, models hint that a upper trough moving through the Pacific northwest may be strong enough to clip northern Nevada Wednesday into Thursday morning. For now, precipitation with this trough looks to be limited to Northern Elko County, and with snow levels during passage forecast to be above 8500 feet, look for isolated rain showers, with snow limited to the highest peaks of the Independence and Jarbidge Ranges. As for amounts, isolated pockets of up to 0.25 of water, with up to 2 of snow. After Thursday, models again show ridging re-intensify across the SW US leading to another round of warming temperatures and quiet, dry weather conditions. Temperatures will be on a general warming trend this week, with highs starting in the mid 40s to mid 50s Sunday afternoon warming into the low 50s to low 60s by next weekend. Overnight lows will also warm from the upper teens to upper 20s Sunday morning, warming into the mid 20s to mid 30s for next weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in the development of a ridge of high pressure across the SW US and Great Basin Regions that will bring quiet weather and warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. There is low to moderate confidence in the chances for isolated showers across northern Elko County Wednesday into Thursday morning associated with a upper trough clipping Nevada. There is high confidence in the re-intensification of upper level ridging across the SW US that will lead to quiet, dry weather with warming temperatures Friday into next weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast through at least the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98