814 FXUS66 KSEW 090427 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 827 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Drier and warmer conditions will settle into Western Washington over the weekend as high pressure builds overhead. A weak system will bring light rain to the region early next week. A stronger and wetter system is expected to move into the Pacific Northwest toward the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...High clouds continue to spread overhead this evening with an upper ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Breezy, offshore winds will continue into tonight for the Cascade gaps with gusts ranging 25 to 40 MPH and localized gusts around 45 MPH near North Bend. Winds will slowly subside after midnight. Previous discussion below: An upper level ridge of high pressure remains in control into Sunday leading to another dry day. Offshore flow and subsidence will boost high temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s for many interior locations. The pattern begins to shift early in the week as the ridge breaks down. On Monday, a weak frontal system will move onshore for a return to cloudier skies with some light precip. Snow levels will remain high. Post-frontal showers may linger into Tuesday, especially over the mountains. Temperatures will cool slightly. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...By midweek, model guidance shows some uncertainty on timing, but impacts are expected to be minimal as the region awaits a more significant pattern change. Confidence in the forecast details for the late week period is low, but ensemble model guidance strongly favors a transition to a wetter and more active pattern. && .AVIATION...An upper level ridge will move inland tonight into Sunday resulting in continued southwesterly flow aloft over W WA. At the surface, as of 03Z most terminals reporting light and variable winds with speeds less than 5 kts. Those showing a direction seem to be favoring winds with at least some easterly component. HQM fits the bill on direction, however speeds there generally ranging 9-13 kts. Forecast has winds shifting to more southerly by early Sunday morning, but keeping speeds akin to this evening. In the case of HQM, speeds will remain elevated overnight, easing Sunday morning. Widespread VFR this evening with mid to high-level clouds over portions of the CWA. While isolated patchy fog will be possible, especially at terminals that tend to lean in that direction to begin with...such as OLM and PWT...said mid to high-level clouds should prove to be a limiting factor. Widespread VFR conditions expected Sunday as well. KSEA...VFR with mid to high-level clouds overhead for the TAF period. Easterly winds this evening becoming more southerly by 12Z with speeds remaining less than 5 kts. Current BKN mid-deck strengthens confidence that fog concerns for the terminal remain minimal at this time, however this question could be revisited if conditions clear overnight. && .MARINE...High pressure inland with lower pressure over the coastal waters will cause offshore flow to continue through this evening. Seeing some Small Craft Advisory easterly wind gusts through the central and west entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening, with speeds expected to ramp up after midnight through Sunday morning. As such, will leave inherited headline alone with no need for an evening update. Seas will build to 10 feet across the outer waters on Sunday as the next system approaches, resulting in another SCA. A frontal system will split as it reaches area waters late Sunday into Monday, with onshore flow briefly resuming behind the front. Seas will ease below 10 feet Monday afternoon, though post frontal winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca may approach Small Craft strength Monday evening. High pressure will build over the coastal waters late Monday into the middle of the week, with benign conditions and seas easing to 4 to 8 feet. The next system will approach the region later on Wednesday, expected to bring another round of winds and elevated seas to the region. 15/18 && .HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River dropped below flood stage earlier this morning and will continue to recede through the weekend. The next weather system late Sunday will bring light rain to the Olympic Peninsula, but is not expected to produce hydrologically significant rainfall. Chances for heavier rain increase towards the end of next week, though no new flooding is expected over the next 7 days. JD/15 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Sunday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

652 FXUS66 KPQR 090545 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 945 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion and Watch/Warning/Advisories... && .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather this weekend as high pressure builds over the region. Offshore flow will also increase, with breezy easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro. A weak shortwave trough will bring a chance for light rain across the forecast area starting late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Light precipitation will continue to spread across the CWA through Monday. Relatively dry conditions for Tuesday, with widespread precipitation and with cooler temperatures starting Wednesday and expected to persist through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and result in drier conditions across the CWA. As the upper level ridge builds over the area, a thermally induced surface trough also develops will result in easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area. Latest guidance from the GFS, NAM and SREF have the KPDX to DLS pressure gradient peaking around -6 to -8 mb Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Given that easterly winds have been slightly stronger and earlier than initial guidance had suggested, the peak still looks to be overnight, but might last longer and be slightly stronger. At this time, expect wind gusts up to 45 mph for the far eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro area (Troutdale/Camas), and up to 60 mph for exposed ridgetops (Crown Point and Three Corner Rock). Sunday is shaping up to be slightly warmer than today as the upper level ridge amplifies and shifts eastward over the Great Basin. Sunday night into Monday, the upper ridge begins to flatten as a shortwave trough pushes into British Columbia and NW Washington. Guidance is showing that the front associated with this upper level shortwave will either track northward, be relatively weak or both. The result is a moderate to high PoP/low QPF scenario. Currently, the highest chances for rain are along the coast and southwest Washington (50-80%), while chances for rain are lower (20-40%) across interior northwest Oregon. Precipitation will likely arrive at the coast late Sunday evening/Sunday night and slowly push inland through Monday morning. Total precipitation with this shortwave for the coast and SW Washington range from 0.01-0.10 inches and for NW Oregon range from a Trace to 0.05 inches over a 24-36 hour period. Tuesday, another shortwave upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest and this will bring a brief return of dry weather. However, by Wednesday, this ridge quickly gets pushed eastward as a more robust low in the NE Pacific takes aim at the Pac NW. This more robust system will bring rain and cooler air back into the forecast. Current guidance has precipitation starting Wednesday morning. Precipitation will remain in the forecast through at least the end of the week. Thursday will also introduce cooler air into the forecast. 850 mb temperatures fall towards -1 to -3 C, which would also bring snow into the forecast for higher elevations within the Cascades. It is still well into the future for accurate snow accumulations for the Cascades, but we will continue to monitor and update the forecast. /42 && .AVIATION...High pressure inland continues to support offshore flow and largely VFR conditions across the region. Gusts of 20-30 kt reach west of the Columbia Gorge to KPDX/KTTD and through other east-west oriented terrain gaps, but will trend downward late Saturday night through Sunday morning as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. These east winds will inhibit any fog formation at both Portland-area terminals as well as along the coast. Cigs begin to trend downward late in the period as a weak frontal system approaches the coast, with a 30% light rain showers reach KAST by 03-06z Mon. Along the Willamette Valley, as well as other sheltered valleys in the Coast Range and Cascades, light north to northeasterly winds will support another night of valley fog/mist or low stratus. Confidence in fog development is the highest east of I-5 in the southern and central Willamette Valley, most notably including KEUG where there is a 50-70% chance in IFR vis/cigs within fog as soon as 08-10z Sun. Chances for IFR conditions are lower to the north including at KSLE/KUAO/KHIO, some 20-40%, with periods of MVFR vis in mist more likely. If northerly winds remain higher, a low stratus deck may be favored instead of surface-based fog. Any restricted vis should clear by 17-20z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. East winds of 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt will continue tonight, before easing to around 10 kt after 12-15z Sun. -36 && .MARINE...High pressure building inland will drive offshore (easterly) winds around 10-15 kt today. Some gusts up to 20-25 kts are possible in stronger gap-flow winds due to offshore flow, though they are not widespread enough for a Small Craft Advisory. Winds turn south to southeast on Sunday as a weak front approaches the waters, decreasing as gap-flow winds end. Seas of 6-9 ft at 10-12 seconds this evening will generally remain this way through Sunday. However, another strong ebb Sunday evening will yield seas of 9-10 ft in the Columbia River Bar, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4-10 PM. Wind direction varies through the first half of next week, but wind speeds look to remain at 5-10 kt through Wednesday morning. There is also high confidence (greater than 95% chance) that seas remain below 10 ft through midweek as well. An area of low pressure strengthening well offshore will see increasing southerly winds and a building southerly swell, increasing the chances for another period of conditions hazardous to small craft late Wednesday into Thursday. At this point, gale-force winds are not favored during this period, with 30-50% chances of occurrence beyond 20-30NM. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ210. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

176 FXUS66 KMFR 082326 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 326 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. && .AVIATION...09/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue into the evening with fog development expected again in valleys west of the Cascades again overnight into early Sunday morning, including Roseburg and Medford. Fog will lift and clear to VFR around 17-19z . There is low confidence for east of the Cascades and into Klamath Falls to see fog tomorrow morning and guidance supports VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 217 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025/ DISCUSSION...It was another morning of fog that led to sunshine in west side valleys today. High temperatures are on track to reach the mid-60s in most west side locations and upper 50s to low 60s east. Fog will once again be in the forecast for west side valleys, and this is expected to return around midnight and the Rogue Valley will follow. Although some models are indicating that more areas east of the Cascades will see fog tonight, I have kept this out of the forecast. Last night did not have fog in these areas, and with the warmer temperatures today, they will not have as much moisture available, making it harder for fog development. After the fog tomorrow morning, there will be mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. However, the ridge will be strongest tomorrow, and this is when we`ll find some of the warmest afternoon temperatures of the week. Temperatures in the mid-60s east and near 70 west will be ahead tomorrow afternoon. Cloudier skies will come in Sunday night, and this will keep low temperatures to 5 to 15 degrees above normal. There will be a weak front that moves in early next week, but these rain chances Monday into Tuesday are forecast to stay offshore, with the exception of a stray shower in Coos County. The next chance for more activity will begin next Wednesday night into Thursday. Meteorograms are favoring this start time with a break in precip east of the Cascades Friday afternoon. After, there are disagreements into the weekend with the GFS wanting to keep things wetter. This will still bear watching. Still, there are precipitation chances and increased winds east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley with southerly winds Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of this front. -9 MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday, November 8, 2025...South winds and swell dominated seas will remain below advisory criteria through the rest of the weekend into Monday. Winds turn northerly on Monday, and could approach advisory strength south of Cape Blanco late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in borderline conditions hazardous to small craft. More impactful winds, seas and weather are expected to return Wednesday, with gusty winds and high to very high and steep seas possible through Friday. /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

477 FXUS66 KEKA 082119 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 119 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier conditions will build and persist through Tuesday with night and morning valley and coastal fog. Wet and unsettled weather conditions will impact the area mid to late next week, bringing heavy rainfall, mountain snow and multiple periods of strong south winds. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building over the area today. This brought valley fog to most of the inland valleys and some patchy fog along the coastal areas. This has taken some time to clear, but as of noon it appears to have all cleared. Highs are expected to warm above normal each afternoon and into the 70s. The lingering inversion may slow the warming and therefor the afternoon high temperatures today. High pressure is expected to persist on Sunday and conditions are expected to be similar across the area. Expect there will be another foggy night in the inland valleys. Monday it looks like a weather system will move by to the north of the area. At this point it looks like this will only have very subtle affects on northern CA, slightly cooler temperatures and possibly some more coastal stratus. Tuesday this moves east, but a stronger trough starts to approach the area. Conditions will generally be similar on Tuesday, but there winds may start to turn southerly and high clouds might start to move in. Valley fog is expected each morning, although coverage might be slightly less each day as it dries out. Wednesday frontal boundary ahead of the next upper level is expected to approach the area bringing rain and strong winds. Current models are showing the rain start on the south slopes as early as late morning with most areas hold off until mid to late afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain is expected across the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This looks like a strong system that will bring fairly heavy rain, but overall it doesn`t look as strong as the system that we saw earlier this week. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values are still expected to be fairly high with a 60 percent probability of them exceeding 500 j/kg/s. The models are generally showing 1 to 3 inches of rain with local amounts up to 5 inches in the mountains late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. This may cause some flooding in small stream and urban areas, but is generally not expected to bring river flooding. Snow levels are expected to be high with the first round, likely over 7,000 feet. Thursday night and Friday additional rain and mountain snow are expected. Snow are expected to fall behind the front, but not too far. Current models are showing them fall to around 4000 to 5000 feet, lowest in the north. This is lower than previous model runs were showing. Strong winds are also expected with this storm. The 12Z GFS shows a low dropping to 997 mb and moving onshore just north of the area. This is bringing 925 MB winds just off the coast of over 70 KT. This is just one model solution, but there is some support in the ensembles as well. The full ensemble mean for 925mb winds shows 50 kt off the Del Norte coast. Although this is lower, it is the mean and still gives support to the GFS model solution showing it it is not much of an outlier. This scenario could reasonably bring gusts of 40 to 60 mph to coast and coastal ridges with the higher end of the range on the coastal ridges. Thursday night into Friday the colder air starts to move into the area. This brings the potential for lower snow levels, however it is uncertain how quickly the precip will come to an end. There is the potential for snow as low as 4,000 feet, but this is highly uncertain at this point. The models have started to trend lower with the snow levels. MKK && .AVIATION...Shallow fog and low stratus along the coast in the early morning has quickly burned off through the day, finally allowing for widespread and clear VFR conditions all across the area with only thin upper level clouds in the sky. There is a very slight chance (less than 20% chance) of patchy, IFR ground fog tonight along the coast and in valleys, but persistent VFR conditions are most likely through the weekend alongside mostly calm winds. /JHW && .MARINE...The sea state continue to be controlled by a very slowly diminishing mid period westerly swell around 8 feet. Otherwise, calm northerly winds will be to week to generate any short period seas, helping to create an unusually calm sea state through early Monday morning. Moderate northerly winds will build int he southern waters Monday afternoon and slowly spread north by Tuesday, most likely building short period seas back above 6 feet alongside continuing, mild northwest swells. Much steeper seas will return late next week as another storm system most likely (65% chance) brings gale force southerly winds around Thursday. /JHW && .COASTAL FLOODING...King tides have persisted for one more day today, though increasingly small tidal anomalies due to weaker winds have allowed for the peak tide to drop closer to only 8.8 feet today, translating to only very minor impacts in even flood prone areas. Tides will continue to decrease over the next few days with no notable coastal impacts expected. The next King Tide will return the first week of December. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ415. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

231 FXUS66 KMTR 090532 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 932 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 - Warming and drying trend through this upcoming Monday - Unsettled weather pattern returns by the middle of the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 Light offshore flow continues with drier and warmer conditions reported across the region tonight than at the same time last night. This combination should prevent fog from developing tonight and keep nighttime lows in the 50s to low 60s. The 00Z OAK sounding reflects this much drier air with a PWAT of 0.61 in compared to the 00Z sounding from yesterday where the PWAT was 1.00". 00Z model guidance is starting to come in and it is maintaining a favorable setup for widespread rain across the region next week. We will likely see QPF amounts fluctuate for this event over the next few days so stay tuned to the forecast for updates. Given increasing confidence in this weeks system, Sunday would be a good day to make sure you have any outdoor preparations done before this system arrives. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Northeasterly flow persist across the higher elevations this afternoon, yet has diminished in strength as of the past few hours. As earlier fog and low clouds have dissipated, mostly sunny skies prevail across the region allowing for a warm afternoon ahead. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior and around the Santa Cruz region, lower 70s near the coast, and the upper 60s along the immediate coastline. This will also dry out conditions this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values dropping to as low as 10% in the regions peaks and between 20%-40% in the hills/ridgelines. Less cloud cover is forecast for tonight as offshore flow strengthens slightly in the higher elevations and the ridge axis becomes shifts to the east closer to the Bay Area and Central Coast. Again, these winds are not strong enough to warrant any fire weather products. Overnight lows will drop into the low-to-mid 50s and into the lower 60s across the higher terrain. For Sunday, a warming and drying trend will continue as weak to moderate offshore flow prevail in the higher elevations. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 80s across the interior and around the Santa Cruz region (hottest locations may approach 90 degrees F in places Pinnacles National Park and Bradley). Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s away from the immediate coast where the upper 60s are expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1244 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) Offshore winds will relax on Monday in the higher elevations, just ever so slightly. However, Monday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week. Temperatures will warm a few degrees above those on Sunday as the ridge axis becomes centered over the Bay Area and Central Coast. From the previous forecaster: "The focus of the seven day forecast continues to be the shift towards a more unsettled weather pattern in the middle of next week. The ridge over the West Coast erodes and shifts towards the east, allowing an upper level trough to build in the northeastern Pacific and arrive across the West Coast beginning on Wednesday. The current model consensus depicts the best chance for precipitation and the most intense rain coming through the region late on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a period of lower chances of less intense rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday and Saturday. There are still several sources of uncertainty in regards to the forecast, particularly in the rainfall totals and resultant downstream impacts to flooding and landslide risk. For the period from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM gives the following ranges for 25th to 75th percentile rainfall totals (that is, a 50% probability that the eventual rainfall falls within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at Sonoma County Airport and San Francisco International Airport, 0.8"-1.6" at San Jose Airport, and 1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and Monterey Regional Airport. Just to add that additional bit of spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is also painting a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday, with K Index values of 30-35 degrees Celsius suggesting that scattered thunderstorms are possible. We will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we head into the early part of next week, particularly in case the rainfall totals start leaning towards more impactful scenarios. Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe, and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above seasonal averages heading into the first week of December." && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions and light to moderate winds expected to persist at the majority of terminals through the TAF period. The exception is STS, where mist is already moving up the Russian River drainage and impacting the terminal. This will likely persist through most of Sunday morning before mixing out. A southerly surge is likely to develop Sunday, but most model guidance keeps the impacts over the water. Vicinity of SFO...No major concerns tonight. The current conditions are warmer and drier than this time yesterday (RH 67% vs 87%). This should help alleviate any fog concerns like we saw this morning. Otherwise winds will be light and variable through the night before a gentle sea breeze develops Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions expected through the night with light drainage flow. If any terminals are impacted by the southerly surge, it will be MRY and SNS late in the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 900 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 Favorable conditions in the short term with rough conditions later this week. A gentle to moderate northerly breeze and moderate NW swell will continue through Tuesday. Late Wednesday winds will flip to southerly and increase to a strong breeze across the coastal waters. Winds will remain moderate to strong and gradually veer back to NW through the day Thursday. These winds, combined with a building NW swell, will generate rough waves. While the winds decrease Friday, the high swell continues to build with significant wave heights reaching up to 15 feet before diminishing through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

436 FXUS66 KOTX 082327 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 327 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low impact weather Sunday through Wednesday - Windy and wet Thursday into Friday - Mountain snow Thursday evening into Friday && .SYNOPSIS... The weekend into the much of next week will bring a break in the wet weather with continued mild temperatures for November. Wet and windy weather returns Thursday and Friday with snow on the mountain passes starting Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight-Tuesday: A quiet and mild start to the the forecast period with an upper-level ridge over the Northwest. Mid and high clouds are spilling into the region over the ridge but will have little impact other that filtering sunshine at times. Overnight lows will be chilly with modest radiational cooling promoting fog development within the valleys of northern WA and North Idaho and near larger water bodies. The Palouse will remain fog-free due to increased easterly winds developing overnight and becoming breezy (10-20 mph) at times early Sunday morning. A weak front will dent the ridge Monday morning bringing a band of clouds and slight chance for light showers across the Cascades and Selkirks of NE WA and N ID. Given the warmer temperatures aloft under the ridge, any precipitation will be very light and mainly fall as rain. The front will bring a slight increase in winds with gusts to 20 mph. The ridge will rebound again on Tuesday with light winds, morning fog, and afternoon sunshine. Wednesday-Saturday: A pattern shift commences going into the later half of the week and weekend. A trough approaches early Wednesday with a developing warm front over the Inland NW along with increasing clouds over northern WA/ID. 20% chance for light precipitation from this feature but little in the way of QPF. Precipitation chances will ramp up Thursday and Friday as the trough moves inland. There is good agreement amongst the models for a bulk of the trough`s energy to split while encountering the ridge which is driving the slow, nearly 48 hour, eastward progression. Consequently, despite the best forcing diving south of the INW, there should be appreciable precipitation with 50-90% for at least a tenth region-wide over the two-day period and 50% or greater for a quarter of an inch or more away from the lee of the Cascades which will experience some shadowing by Friday. There are two main impacts from the late week system that will need to be monitored closely. 1)Gusty winds with a cold front Thursday afternoon and night and 2)Snow on the mountain passes. There is a 30% chance for wind gusts greater than 30 mph Thursday afternoon and night and imagine these probabilities will increase further with models showing 850mb temperatures cooling from near 9C in the morning to -1C Thursday night. Strongest winds look to impact areas along and south of I-90 stretching from Coeur D Alene to Moses Lake and southward. Snow levels will also be crashing Thursday afternoon and evening with rain transitioning to snow for nearly all mountain passes. Precipitation will become more showery in the post frontal air mass but still capable of several inches of snow and winter driving conditions. If you are crossing the passes Thursday evening-night, be prepared for changing conditions. Another storm system will be on its heels for the upcoming weekend. Significant mountain snow will be possible on the Cascade Crest and to lesser degree, the Idaho Panhandle. Moisture with this system will encounter a cooler air mass left in place Friday. This will also come with more pronounced westerly flow favoring these orographically favored slopes. Early probabilities from the NBM indicate a 60% chance for at least six of snow for Stevens and Washington Passes and 40% chance for Lookout Pass. Looking at probabilities for twelve inches, 30% for Stevens/Washington and 10% for Lookout Pass. Would not rule out some snow making it down to 2000 feet for some areas of Northeastern WA and North Idaho at the onset of this event but these details come with lower confidence. We are getting into the second week of November, it`s just a matter of time for these northern valleys. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Scattered to broken mid and high clouds crossing into Central WA and drifting eastward overnight has lowered probabilities for dense fog for GEG-SFF with the 00z TAF issuance. These areas will radiate well the next 4-6 hours before the clouds arrive and would not rule out fog developing along the Pend Oreille River, Spokane River, and vcnty of Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. If the fog can materialize, the easterly winds could advect the fog into GEG. Otherwise, there is lower confidence given the incoming cloud shield. Easterly winds will be elevated for PUW through the night with speeds near 15kts Sunday morning. LWS, MWH, EAT have high probabilities for VFR skies and light winds. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to persist for KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS. There is low confidence for fog redevelopment at KGEG and KSFF given increasing high clouds. Forecast backed off on previous fog but still includes some coverage given the late timing of the clouds arriving. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 32 50 36 50 35 51 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 32 52 37 52 37 52 / 0 0 0 30 20 0 Pullman 35 55 38 55 39 54 / 0 0 0 20 30 0 Lewiston 37 60 42 60 44 60 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Colville 28 49 29 49 28 49 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Sandpoint 30 49 34 49 35 49 / 0 0 10 50 30 10 Kellogg 35 54 42 54 43 51 / 0 0 0 40 50 20 Moses Lake 33 52 35 52 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 36 53 40 53 38 54 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Omak 35 49 37 49 34 52 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

621 FXUS66 KPDT 090535 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 935 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .Updated for Aviation... .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most part, with winds 10 kts or less. With high pressure in place over the area, some fog or stratus is possible, with the most likely location being DLS. IFR CIGS are being forecast there Sunday morning. It is possible that there could be fog or stratus in other locations as well (like PSC) but probabilities are low enough (<30 percent) so have not included any lower CIGS/VSBYS at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025/ DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday morning: A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the PacNW today, with scattered cirrus decks pushing over the forecast area throughout today and into tomorrow. Temperatures will moderate under a strengthening low level inversion across the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/foothills (including north central OR) through Sunday, keeping temperates mainly in the 50s, while temperatures warm into the 60s to low 70s elsewhere. The ridge will flatten Sunday night through Monday as a shortwave trough and a deteriorating cold front impact the PacNW. Moisture will limited with this system, only resulting in light precipitation along the Cascade crest and northern Blues, with light snow limited to above 7.5kft along the Cascade crest. Pressure gradients across the Blues will tighten ahead of the system arrival Sunday morning, and remain will strengthened until the shortwave/front passage Monday morning. In response, breezy south winds 15-25mph and gusts up to 40mph will develop through the Grande Ronde valley, with only a 10-20% chance that winds 45mph or greater will develop. Breezy south to southwest winds will also develop over the Blue mountains, which will transition into downslope winds along the Blue mountain foothills by Monday. There is moderate confidence (50-70%) that the downsloping winds will also erode away the low level inversion and cold pool along the foothills, allowing for temperatures to warm into the 60s in these areas. The ridge will rebound back late Monday through Wednesday morning with light winds and dry conditions. Fog and low stratus developing in the overnight hours and early mornings will become a concern through early in the week, especially in areas of the Columbia River gorge, and Blue Mountain foothills, and Yakima/Kittitas valleys. Currently, probabilities for low stratus to develop are only 20-30% through Monday morning, but rise to 35-55% by Tuesday morning. As for patchy fog, chances will generally remain less than 20%, but confidence is moderate (50-70%) that patchy fog will develop along some areas of the Columbia/Snake Rivers as well as along some their tributary rivers. Wednesday afternoon through Friday: Ensemble guidance is in great agreement that a trough will develop offshore the PacNW by Wednesday morning, but ensemble cluster solutions disagree on timing and snow coverage in the mountains. Across the available solutions, the trough axis passage over the forecast area ranges anywhere from Thursday night through Friday evening. Solutions that have an earlier passage Friday morning also result in precipitation chances across the lower elevations diminishing before Friday afternoon (~55% of members) while other solutions (~30% of members) depict the trough axis passage later Friday, resulting in precipitation chances staying around longer. The earlier passage solutions also depict the lowest snow levels across the mountains, resulting in light snow accumulations not only across the Cascade crest, but across portions of the eastern mountains as well. From the NBM, 72 hour chances of snow greater than 4 inches through Friday night is only 25-50% across the Eagle Caps and the Cascade passes; chances are generally 10-30% across the eastern mountains and the Blues. Otherwise, there is mod-high confidence (60-80%) that the lower elevations and mid elevation areas of the eastern mountains will see at least light rainfall through the latter half of the work week, though confidence is low (15-25%) in timing of beginning/ending of rainfall and amount of precipitation areas will receive. Lastly, confidence is moderate (60-70%) that breezy south to west winds (15-25mph with gusts 25-40mph) will develop across the forecast area with the passage of the trough late Wednesday through Friday. Lawhorn/82 AVIATION...00Z...Surface high pressure will continue to dominate sensible weather. VFR conditions are expected with light winds prevailing. One concern however will be the potential for stratus to develop again overnight in the basin over KDLS. As locally east surface winds (near and around DLS) continue through 12z and beyond Sunday morning the redevelopment of the IFR restriction should be considered at least a 50% chance, especially given the poor model prediction as of late. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 34 54 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 37 54 41 60 / 0 0 0 10 PSC 32 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 33 55 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 34 52 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 31 53 35 57 / 0 0 0 10 RDM 30 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 35 61 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 35 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 38 56 41 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...82 LONG TERM....82 AVIATION...77

528 FXUS65 KREV 082232 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 232 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Light winds, dry conditions, and a warming trend continue into next week. * Temperatures will peak Monday with record-setting high temperatures possible. * A storm looks to impact the area late next week, with the potential for high-mountain snow, valley rain, and strong winds. && .DISCUSSION... Partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures are making for a beautiful Saturday. This pleasant fall weather pattern, driven by high pressure, will continue right through Veterans Day, making for excellent outdoor weather. Temperatures will keep climbing, peaking on Monday in potential record territory. For reference, the current record high at KRNO on Monday is 74 degrees; we see an 85% chance of tying or breaking that record, with an 80% chance of breaking it outright. Aside from the warmth, light winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to persist, becoming mostly cloudy on Wednesday. Persistent valley inversions will continue during the nights. This setup brings a 30% chance of FZFG in the Martis Valley tonight. A shift in the pattern is expected late in the week. Temperatures will begin to fall on Wednesday ahead of a weather system forecast to impact the region on Thursday and Friday. Ensemble guidance is in good general agreement on this pattern change, but some key differences remain. Specifically, there is disagreement regarding the depth of the trough and slight timing differences with its passage. Current guidance suggests winds will peak on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. For much of the beginning of the event, we look to be in the right exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This area of large-scale descent may enhance the downward transport of stronger winds aloft (50-60 kts at 700 hPa), increasing the potential for strong surface gusts. The NBM currently has much of western Nevada and valleys of the Sierra at a 40-60% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph Thursday. Regarding moisture, there is a 60-70% probability of IVT values exceeding 250 kg/(ms) impinging on the Sierra Nevada, indicating a notable moisture feed. However, while IVT values look modest, the direction of the transport is key. The vectors are forecast to be from the SSW, which forms and obtuse angle with the Sierra crest. This orientation is not favorable for significant precipitation spillover into the Sierra Front. Furthermore, with the stronger jet core and associated QG ascent remaining farther north, the dynamics for spillover also appear limited. This more northerly track also means the storm appears to be a warmer one, which would keep snow levels relatively high. As with any forecast 5+ days out, details are likely to change, but those in the region should start to prepare for potential impacts from strong winds, valley rain, and high-elevation snow late next week. -Johnston && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail. High-level clouds will become scattered overnight, with scattered to broken cirrus expected on Sunday. Light terrain-driven winds will continue for all terminals. The main exception remains KTRK. The incoming cirrus deck may hinder radiational cooling enough overnight, which is why we only have a 30% chance of FZFG development after 06Z Sunday. If FZFG does manage to form, IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible. Given that FZFG hung on through 18Z this morning, any fog that does develop could last well into Sunday morning. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

774 FXUS66 KSTO 082049 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1249 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - A drying and warming trend continues into early next week, with patchy morning fog possible on Sunday. - The next storm system looks to arrive mid to late week bringing widespread rain, breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and mountain snow. .DISCUSSION... ...Today through early next week... Dry and warm conditions are expected through early next week, as ridging aloft builds in over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s through early next week, with morning lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Breezy offshore and downsloping winds during the overnight hours are anticipated. Additional overnight and early morning fog development will be possible through the Delta, Valley, and foothills into Sunday morning before drying impacts from the building ridge lower chances early next week. Confidence is low on the coverage, density, and location of the fog, with current probabilities of visibility less than 1 mile around 20-45% across the Delta, southern/central Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin Valley and adjacent foothills locations on Sunday morning. ...Mid to Late Week... The aforementioned ridging aloft looks to break down by the middle of the week, allowing a deepening trough from the Gulf of Alaska to dig southward and introduce a return to active weather from late Wednesday onward. Widespread rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances are expected on Thursday as this system moves into NorCal. As the trough moves inland by Friday, chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue, with mountain snow chances above 6500 feet expected to increase. Long range ensembles indicate some potential for an additional weaker system by next weekend, but details remain highly uncertain at this time. .AVIATION... Light winds prevail throughout the Valley across the forecast period, with breezy east-northeast winds anticipated along the Sierra after 03z Sunday. VFR conditions to prevail at RDD and RBL, with additional periods of MVFR/IFR/LIFR expected to develop 09z-18z Sunday in BR/FG through the Delta, foothills, and remaining Valley locations. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

095 FXUS65 KMSO 081957 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1257 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Low stratus and patchy fog this weekend. - Increased winds and isolated showers across northwest Montana Monday into Tuesday. - Ridge of high pressure Wednesday into Friday. High pressure is building over the region. Expect light winds, with increasing potential for valley fog and stratus each morning through Monday. On Monday, a weak disturbance will beat down the ridge of high pressure. A breezy afternoon is forecast especially on western sides of valleys as mix-down winds flow down the mountains. This disturbance will allow for a reset on stagnant air conditions in valleys and, the valley fog and stratus will contract Tuesday morning. High pressure rebounds mid-week and valley fog and stratus expand yet again as the air mass stagnates. While there remains timing differences for a Friday breakdown of the ridge, greater than 80% of models support this solution. The focus of moisture for this system is currently for north-central ID and northwest MT. At the onset of precipitation, roughly overnight Thursday, there is only a 14% chance of winter travel impacts at pass level. That said, Friday evening through Sunday that probability increases to 60%. && .AVIATION...Clear skies and light winds will allow for fog in the vicinity of KGPI and KMSO Sunday morning. The more likely solution however is that the surface layer is dry enough that low stratus develops. Similar conditions are present for Sunday into Monday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

412 FXUS65 KBOI 090342 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 842 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 .DISCUSSION...A strong upper level ridge will keep conditions dry with high clouds moving overhead through early next week. Tonight, dry air in place and a cool air mass will allow lows to dip into the 20s and 30s across the area, with some sheltered mountain valleys dipping into the 10s. The ridge axis will move overhead on Sunday. This will bring several degrees of warming, especially in the mountains as inversion conditions strengthen in the valleys and limit warming. A light east to southeast breeze will develop by Sunday morning. Forecast remains on track and no updates this evening. && .AVIATION...VFR. Few high clouds across E`rn OR and W`rn ID. Surface winds: Variable or SE under 10 kt tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds mostly light and variable, becoming SE 5-10 kt later tonight after 05Z. && .AIR STAGNATION...High pressure aloft will bring a period of more stagnant conditions to the region next week. A temperature inversion will lower mixing heights to between 2-3kft AGL Sunday, possibly dropping below 2kft AGL Monday and continuing through Wed/Thur. There could be some improvement late Monday into Tuesday with passage of a weak cold front. Light winds will accompany lower mixing heights. The dry air mass and lack of snow cover and will limit fog development. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A highly amplified upper ridge will remain over the western US through Sunday, resulting in dry conditions under mostly clear skies. This will also promote warming aloft, which will add another 3 to 5 degrees to high temperatures each day into Monday. The lower valleys will be slower to warm up through this period due to an inversion through at least Sunday. The upper level ridge weakens significantly on Monday as an upper trough tracks through the Idaho panhandle. There looks to be a strong enough surface gradient for winds up to 15 mph to help mix and weaken the inversion in the lower valleys Monday afternoon. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal on Monday, except across the lowest elevations where temperatures will be slightly lower but still near normal. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...With an impending upper- level trough coming into the Pacific Northwest, development of a weak upper-level ridge Tuesday and early Wednesday will keep temperatures warm for this time of season. Beginning midday Wednesday, southwest flow will begin to overspread the area ahead of the incoming upper-level trough. The trend over the last few days keeps the trough coming in a bit slow, leading to impacts from the associated cold front, precipitation, and wind gusts from happening until afternoon/evening Thursday. Precipitation chances start Wednesday evening in SE OR and early Thursday morning in SW ID. The trend for precipitation beginning should become later with future model runs. Regardless, PoPs will rise west-to-east Thursday, with lower elevations 20-50% chance and higher elevations 40-80% chance. The best chance for precipitation areawide will happen Thursday evening into midday Friday, however chances will remain from Thursday through the extended. Snow levels will start out above 8kft MSL on Thursday, dropping to 5-6kft by Saturday as the first trough passes. Temperatures hold around 10 degrees above normal (lowest elevations excluded) through Thursday, with the flip to a trough cooling temperatures to around normal starting Friday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...ST AVIATION.....JY AIR STAGNATION...JDS SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....CH

442 FXUS65 KLKN 082045 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1245 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 PM PST Sat Nov 8 2025 * Warming trend persists thru early next week * Potential for a wet weather system arriving late next week, bringing cooler temperatures && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny this afternoon. This is due to upper level ridging along the western coast of the United States. This ridge will dominate the weather over northern and central Nevada through the weekend and into next week. Look for tranquil weather to continue through the period. High temperatures will gradually warm to the 60s by Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be light. The ridge axis is expected to flatten on Monday and Tuesday. Quiet and dry weather will continue during this time with light winds. But by Thursday, the ridge axis will be shifting to the east. Strong winds is expected to develop out of the south and southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s. Isolated to scattered showers will also develop in the afternoon. Light showers will continue into the overnight with lows in the 30s. An upper level low pressure system will traverse the region Friday and Saturday, leading to cooler temperatures and periods of light precipitation. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy both afternoons. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes have been made to the current NBM forecast. Confidence remains high through mid-week with confidence tailing off rapidly due to timing and strength differences with the upcoming storm system on Thursday through next weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...97