501 FXUS66 KSEW 150345 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 845 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Transient ridging will build tonight into the first half of Thursday. However, the next disturbance will quickly follow as a round of rain arrives by Thursday evening. An unsettled weather pattern will remain in place across the Pacific Northwest this weekend through early next week, maintaining widespread clouds and rain showers. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...The forecast remains largely on track this evening, with radar showing some light showers still lingering across the Cascades at this hour. Showers will continue to taper into the overnight hours for a brief dry break on Thursday morning. The previous discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and marine sections. 14 Broad troughing resides over the Intermountain West as a ridge noses into British Columbia. For tonight, the aforementioned ridge will settle over the PNW as its axis cuts across western Washington by early Thursday morning. As a result, weak convergence and showers will gradually subside overnight through aid of subsidence aloft and weakening onshore flow. Minimum temperatures are to bottom out into the lower to upper 40s. As alluded to, Thursday will get off to a dry start but high clouds are slated to increase ahead of the next system. A frontal boundary is arriving by the evening with widespread rainfall and mountain snow above 4,500-5,000 ft. This feature will open up the pattern as upper-lows bring successive rounds of showers keeping conditions cloudy and drippy throughout the weekend. Highs are to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, 5 degrees or so below average for mid- May. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Upper-troughing will get escorted out by another round of transient ridging Sunday night- Monday morning. Ensembles have mostly zonal flow aloft following thereafter before the next disturbance potentially arrives around Wednesday. Temperatures won`t stray too far from average. && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft continues across Western Washington as an upper level trough shifts eastward across British Columbia. The flow aloft will turn westerly on Thursday as a weakening front approaches the region. Low level onshore flow will ease overnight. VFR ceilings and a few pockets of MVFR will lower back to predominantly MVFR near or after 09Z and persist into Thursday morning. Precipitation with an incoming front will reach coastal areas midday Thursday then spread to the interior terminals by early Thursday evening, though will be very light and scattered as the Puget Sound area will be shadowed initially. Winds remain west/southwesterly Thursday, though switching to north at KPAE Thursday afternoon. KSEA...VFR ceilings will fall back to 020-030 overnight tonight. Surface winds W/SW 5-7 knots this afternoon may become light and variable for a period around 00Z before returning to a southerly direction overnight tonight. 27/62 && .MARINE...Surface high pressure over the coastal and offshore waters will weaken late Thursday as a frontal system approaches the area. The front will weaken as it moves onshore on Friday. Surface ridging will rebuild offshore on Saturday then shift into the coastal waters early next week. Another stronger frontal system looks to move through the area Sunday night into Monday. Seas will generally remain under 10 feet through the weekend, but may approach 10 feet early next week as a swell train generated by a trough over the northern Gulf of Alaska arrives. 27/62 && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be included as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

715 FXUS66 KPQR 150459 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 959 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Updated Aviation... .SYNOPSIS...A progressive weather pattern will bring periods of light rain through the weekend, and possibly into early next week. Expect temperatures to remain slightly below average as well. Dry conditions expected tonight through Thursday morning, followed by light, steady rain as a weak front moves across the area later Thursday. Rain showers increase late Friday night through Saturday, along with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Sat afternoon. Lingering showers into Sunday, though most areas likely drier. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday...Cool and cloudy weather continues over the next week as the progressive weather pattern persists across the Pacific Northwest. A few lingering showers over the Cascades this evening will dissipate as high pressure briefly builds as a transient shortwave ridge moves over the region tonight. Overnight temperatures expected to cool into the lower 40s, with a few rural locations falling into the upper 30s. Dry weather will likely persist through Thursday morning, before a weak front brings more steady, albeit light, rain to the area into Thursday night. Rainfall amounts generally expected to be around a tenth of an inch or less. Onshore flow persists into Friday with mostly cloudy skies expected to maintain below average temperatures for mid-May, with afternoon highs mainly warming into the lower to mid-60s inland, and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Later Friday, an upper level jet over the north Pacific will nose onshore somewhere along the northern California/southern Oregon coast. An associated shortwave trough will likely bring another round of showers to the area late Friday through Saturday, along with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Another upper level disturbance drops south across the region late Saturday, reinvigorating showers within the northwest flow aloft, and eventually becoming a closed low over the Great Basin late Sunday. Weekend rainfall amounts are expected to be be a bit more substantial, but will largely depend on where the strongest showers set up. Latest guidance does suggest around a 25-45% chance for exceeding 0.25 inch across many lowland areas, while across the higher terrain, especially the western slopes of the Cascades, are showing around a 50% chance of exceeding a half an inch of rain. Ensemble clusters are in relatively good agreement that upper level ridging noses back into the Pacific Northwest by late Sunday into Monday. But, the strength of the ridge remains uncertain, with about a 50/50 chance of more zonal flow as upper level troughing rides more flattish ridging into the Pacific NW. So, will maintain a chance of rain across the area through early next week. There is some indication of temperatures creeping back up to near normal toward the middle of next week. But, uncertainty looms on into the long range. /DH && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR under broken mid level cloud cover across the area as of 04z. Expect these conditions to persist overnight as a transient shortwave ridge crosses overhead, with existing cloud cover helping to put a damper on any widespread fog development. Conditions may be a bit more variable along the coast, where probabilistic guidance gives a 40-60% chance for MVFR cigs roughly 08-16z Thu. As such, could see some intermittent drops to MVFR at KAST and KONP overnight. Confidence in VFR is a bit higher inland, where MVFR probs range from 20-30% in the Portland area to 10-20& elsewhere in the Willamette Valley. A weak disturbance will bring another round of light rain and lower cigs Thu afternoon, with MVFR expected at the coast 20-22z and inland 22z Thu - 01z Fri. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through Thu morning as weak high pressure passes overhead. Still around a 30% chance for MVFR cigs through 12z. A weak system will bring increased chances for light rain and MVFR cigs beginning 22z Thu - 00z Fri. /CB && .MARINE...Seas currently around 7 feet at 9 seconds, and will continue falling going into Thursday down to 5-7 ft. Winds have fallen below Small Craft Advisory criteria, and will continue to fall to around 10 kts by the end of Wednesday night. Winds turn southerly around 10-15 kts by Thursday, continuing through the workweek. A reinvigorated northwest swell arrives with a frontal system on Friday. Southwest flow ahead of the front will will turn again out of the northwest in its wake, with a 20-40% chance of gale-force gusts beyond 30 NM through the weekend. -Picard/JLiu && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

730 FXUS66 KMFR 150528 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR Issued by National Weather Service Portland OR 1028 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .AVIATION...Expect mostly VFR tonight through Thursday afternoon, with some areas MVFR ceilings developing tonight through early Thursday morning along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Valley. Areas of mountain obscurations are expected tonight/Thursday morning across Coos and Douglas Counties and into the South-Central Oregon Cascades. Thursday evening, areas of light rain with MVFR conditions are expected to develop along the coast and into Douglas County. Mountain obscurations will also increase, mainly from the Cascades west, Thursday evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued Issued by National Weather Service Portland OR/ DISCUSSION...Satellite images shows the higher cloud deck diminishing, with ample mid and low level clouds mainly along and west of the Cascades. Cloud cover should gradually diminish later this afternoon into this evening. Radar is not showing any returns and with no areas reporting precipitation. Thus, it`s shaping up to be a dry day for the rest of the afternoon. Dry weather is likely tonight into Thursday morning as weak upper ridging builds in. Cloud cover will continue to dissipate this evening and tonight with mostly clear skies. The exception will be along and north of the Umpqua Divide and possibly the north facing slopes of the Siskiyous and west facing slopes of the Cascades where cloud cover could get banked up. Any cloud cover in the above mentioned areas will dissipate later in the morning, with brief clearing before clouds move in from the northwest ahead of the next weak disturbance. This disturbance could bring a few showers along the north coast and northwest Douglas County Thursday afternoon. The weak shortwave will move north of the area tonight, with the best chance for precipitation remaining over the northern part of our forecast area. This could include portions of Douglas County, northern Klamath and Lake County. Even then showers will be mainly isolated with very light precip amounts. Dry weather returns Friday with milder temperatures in the afternoon. There`s good agreement another, but stronger upper trough will move in from the northwest Friday night and Saturday resulting in cooler temperatures with showers increasing during the day and possibly becoming more frequent in the afternoon due to a daytime heating resulting in increasing instability. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon, but the general consensus is instability will be greatest east of the Cascades, thus have a slight chance of storms in this area. The upper trough will exit out of the area Saturday night, but there`s some question as to the location of another weak upper trough to follow Sunday. The operational GFS slides the upper trough over our area while the ECMWF has it farther north which would favor a drier solution. The respective individual ensemble members pretty much follow the operational solutions. Additionally, the majority of the clusters also lean towards a dry solution. The one commonality is they all show drying Sunday afternoon. Therefore we`ll keep a slight chance of showers for the northern Cascades, and portions of the Coastal counties Sunday morning with dry conditions in the afternoon. The general consensus shows upper ridging building in Sunday night through Monday. The operational ECMWF suggest the ridging will flatten out as a shortwave moves in from the west, and shows some evidence of light precipitation for the northwest part of the area. However the majority of the individual ECMWF ensemble members and clusters favor stronger upper ridging, thus we`ll keep the forecast dry for the start of next week. In fact most, if not all of next week could end up dry with sufficient evidence supporting stronger ridging to at least keep the storm track north of our forecast area. -Petrucelli MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, May 14, 2025...A thermal trough is developing along the coast and gusty north winds are returning, highest south of Cape Blanco this afternoon. These winds will persist through Thursday evening. Steep short period are developing, with conditions hazardous to small craft, especially from Gold Beach southward. Wave conditions improve a bit Friday, but low pressure will bring showers Friday night into Saturday followed by increasing west-northwest swell this weekend. -Spilde/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$

232 FXUS66 KEKA 142231 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 331 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Drying and warming trend today through the remainder of the week. Breezy northwest winds are anticipated each afternoon. A weather system will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds and a slight chance of rain Saturday. Windy conditions continue Sunday with warmer temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION...Northwest California remains in between a ridge over the eastern Pacific and a trough over the Great Basin. A shortwave is moving down the east side of the ridge and is bringing a few mid-level clouds to the area this afternoon. A few showers or sprinkles are possible near the Oregon border over the interior, but generally it looks mainly dry. Tonight there is expected to be less stratus in general, but it may return on the Humboldt coast and the river valleys of Humboldt county. Thursday afternoon another shortwave moves over the ridge, but again this isn`t expected to have much of an impact. Friday the pattern remains fairly similar althoug the ridge starts to flatten. This will likely bring more stratus to areas along the coast. Friday is also expected to be the warmest day this week with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Friday night into Saturday morning a stronger shortwave is expected to drop down the east side of the ridge bringing colder air into the region and the potential for some light rain. Currently the NBM is showing over 30 percent probability of 0.10 inches of rain in interior Del Norte county with other areas showing lower porbabilities. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday, however the better dynamics and colder air aloft moves through in the morning which should minimize the threat. If the system slows down this could bring a higher potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, but highs are generally expected to be in the 60s Saturday across the interior with upper 50s near the coast. Sunday clearing skies are expected and drying conditions. Winds will be strong with gusts of 25 to 35 mph along the coast Saturday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected to be in the southern areas, mainly Mendocino and Lake counties. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible over the inland areas. Gusts at Cobb may be near 40 mph. There is still the possibility that these may stronger, this will need to be monitored. Next week warming temperatures across the interior areas are expected once again. Wednesday some of the areas may even see temperatures close to 100 in the warmer valleys of Mendocino and Lake counties. MKK && .AVIATION...High and mid layer clouds will occasionally slip over an offshore ridge in brisk northwesterly flow above 10kft tonight through Thu. Warming aloft coupled with steady northerly low level flow block by the coastal terrain will lead to low cloud redevelopment this evening and overnight. MVFR ceilings are highly probable for KACV with lower chances for temporary IFR ceilings by daybreak Thu. Sporadic MVFR or IFR cigs will also be possible at CEC with low cloud formations over the interior spreading westward overnight. Otherwise for UKI, VFR with high occasional cirrus is expected. Now winds will remain gusty for coastal terminals this evening and again on Thu. Peak gusts to 25 kt or more are expected. This will create turbulent flying conditions for small craft, particularly around KACV where once surface gustiness decouples and subsides this evening. DB && .MARINE...A trough is forecast to slowly depart east as high high pressure ridging builds into the region from the west today through Thu. As a result, the northerly winds will trend stronger through Thursday. Advisory level winds up to 25 kts, with higher gusts, can be expected in the northerly zones through Thursday afternoon. Winds will particularly be accelerated around Cape Mendocino from the expansion fan. Northerly winds up to 30 kts, with higher gusts are now forecast through close to half of zone 475 and 455. This magnitude of winds has warranted Gale Watches from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night when the strongest winds are forecast. The fading, mid period NW swell pulsed higher and the ongoing Small Craft Advisories have been expanded into the Northern Inner zone 450 to cover the steep waves and anticipated strengthening northerly winds. A weak shortwave trough will dive south through the region on Friday. This will temporarily weaken the northerly winds on Friday, but winds of over 20 kts will remain south of Cape Mendo. Northerly winds and steep waves will quickly increase on Saturday and may reach gale criteria as the trough departs to the east. Gale Warning criteria appears more likely on Sunday in the southern waters south of the Cape Mendo, especially in afternoon and evening. DB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

480 FXUS66 KMTR 150603 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1103 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Gradual warming trend into Friday before a slight cooldown over the weekend. Gusty winds will develop late Friday into Sunday. Warming trend resumes early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 After a few active evenings weather wise, tonight is a tad more mellow with lighter winds and a few high clouds passing overhead. Why the change? High pressure nosing in from the west and northwest is leading this change in the sensible weather. Temperatures along the coast were similar to the last few days, but once you moved away from any marine influence temperatures climbed into the 70s and near 80 degrees. While these temperatures are still below seasonable averages they were still 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday. For the rest of tonight - a marine layer will form again, but it won`t be like a June Gloom marine layer covering the coast and inland valleys. Coverage for Thursday morning will likely be patchy along the coast and locally inland. As noted below pretty quiet weather through the short term. Here a few weather impacts will be focusing on the next seven days and beyond --Subtle warming trend to finish the work week --Much stronger northerly winds kicks in for the weekend. Wind advisories may be needed Saturday into Sunday with the strongest winds over the coastal waters, coastal areas, and higher peaks. --burst of northerly/offshore flow Sunday night in Monday --Solid warm up the middle of next week with far interior locations hitting moderate HeatRisk --8 to 14 CPC shows a warming and drying trend --CPC highlights portions of CA with a slight and moderate risk for Excessive Heat May 22 through May 28 MM && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 An upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific extends itself over the West Coast, resulting in benign weather for the next couple of days. Satellite imagery shows thin high clouds entering the North Bay, lingering stratus at the immediate coast of the San Mateo Peninsula, and fair weather cumulus popping up in the eastern Santa Clara Hills and the mountains of interior Monterey and San Benito Counties. Overall conditions remain dry and seasonably warm throughout the region with highs ranging from the lower to middle 70s inland and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Bayshore, while onshore flow keeps the coastal regions cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Inland temperatures warm slightly tomorrow with the interior valleys reaching the middle 70s to the lower 80s, but otherwise the forecast is similar to today`s weather with coastal stratus south of the Golden Gate that moves down the Salinas Valley and into the Morgan Hill-Hollister area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday with the inland valleys remaining near the middle 70s to lower 80s, while the Bayshore sees highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs along the coastal regions remain relatively constant and cool, owing to the sea breeze influence. Later on Friday through Saturday, an upper level trough will develop off the Pacific Northwest and deepen into a cutoff low in the Great Basin, causing a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend. Saturday`s high temperatures will dip by around 10 degrees in the interior valleys, to around the middle 60s to lower 70s, while the Bayshore drops into the lower to middle 60s. Although the cutoff low will continue to move eastwards, leaving a classic "inside slider" scenario less likely, the pressure gradient between the cutoff low and a ridge in the eastern Pacific will still result in gusty winds across the region later on Friday into Sunday. The current forecast continues to show wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph across the region with gusts up to 45 mph possible at the ridgelines, along the coast, and through favored gaps and passes. Warming temperature will return for the early part of next week with high temperatures rising to the lower 80s to lower 90s inland, or around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. On the backside of the cutoff low, northerly winds could develop in the interior regions, especially in Napa County and the interior East Bay, helping to reinforce the warmer and drier conditions in those areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Patchy stratus is expected tonight primarily along the coastline and eastern portion of the SF Bay. HAF, MRY, SNS, and OAK are expected to see MVFR to IFR conditions overnight with highest confidence in MVFR to IFR CIGs at MRY. Current thinking is that the NBM is too widespread in stratus coverage as it shows stratus pushing into much of the Bay Area and Central Coast. The combination of drier air aloft and a more compressed marine layer (~1000 ft) pushed thinking more towards the HRRR and HREF models which supported patchy stratus development along the coast and limited the inland extent of stratus. Current thinking is that conditions will be too dry to support fog at STS or APC but if any does develop it will likely be in the 12Z-17Z timeframe. Breezy onshore winds return tomorrow during the afternoon/evening before winds diminish overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Continued to lean towards HRRR and HREF guidance which support patchy stratus across the Bay Area but do not show it filling in across the SF Bay region. Confidence is moderate that conditions will stay VFR through the TAF period but if MVFR CIGs do develop, LAMP guidance indicates 12Z-16Z as the most likely timeframe. Current thinking is that conditions will be too dry to support stratus developing across the SF Bay but ensembles do show some potential for this to occur. Breezy onshore winds continue to diminish this evening before increasing again tomorrow during the day. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to IFR overnight becoming VFR during the day. Satellite shows MVFR CIGs have reached MRY and are starting to fill in around SNS. Stratus is expected to persist at both sites through mid to late tomorrow morning with low to moderate confidence that IFR CIGs will develop at MRY. MVFR CIGs will fill in at SNS over the next few hours with patchy MVFR CIGs expected through 10Z. Light onshore flow continues overnight before moderate northwest winds return during the day tomorrow.&& .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1103 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Strong, gale force northwesterly winds continue across the outer coastal waters while fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue across the inner coastal waters. Moderate seas bringing steep, fresh swell will continue through Saturday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters. Sunday into next week, gale force to near gale force winds will become more widespread over the coastal waters and seas will become rough. Hazardous conditions will continue through the end of the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

502 FXUS66 KOTX 150519 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1019 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool and showery at times through at least early next week -Windy in Central WA this evening && .UPDATE... Evening update at 6:30 PM to increase the winds near the Cascades. Observations are showing windy conditions with a tight cross Cascade pressure gradient resulting in sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to around 45 mph across the Wenatchee Area and on the Waterville Plateau. The higher end winds of gusts to around 45 mph are only expected for another few hours and will elect to hold off on a short-fused wind advisory. Winds will gradually decrease overnight with the loss of surface heating over the Columbia Basin that will weaken the thermally induced pressure gradient. /SVH && .SYNOPSIS... A cool and showery weather pattern will continue through at least early next week. In addition, breezy winds are expected at times. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday Night: An upper low over central British Columbia today will slide southeast, and sheer apart as it tracks into NW Montana on Thursday. This will result in the best lift tracking east of the area bringing a drying trend into Thursday. Although residual moisture and instability will lead to continued scattered showers into the early evening over NE Washington and the ID Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected with uncapped surface based CAPE of 250-500 J/KG. Storms will be capable of producing pea size hail. Most of the activity will wind down after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. On Thursday a short wave ridge moves over the area for dry conditions except for a chance of showers over the ID Panhandle and extreme NE Washington. Thursday Night into Friday the next short wave pushes in from the west. There are some model differences with the chances and amount of precipitation, but the GFS and ECMWF ensembles have trended a little wetter with a tenth to quarter inch of rain over the ID Panhandle and eastern third of WA, with less than a tenth in Central WA. POP`s have been increased above the National Blend of Models (NBM) given the recent trend with the ensembles. This wave exits Friday evening but the next one is right on its heels keeping a chance of showers over the area. JW Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon: Another low pressure system will move through the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing precipitation to much of the area, particularly to far eastern Washington and the Northern Idaho Panhandle. Saturday morning, the low pressure system will come onshore off the coast of Oregon and northern California before deepening throughout the day and moving southeastward further into the Nevada/Utah/Arizona area. Right now, models are struggling on whether the track of the low will result in widespread rainfall throughout the forecast area or minimal rainfall. Half of the WPC clusters have the low moving far enough south that rain could be minimal, whereas the other half have lowering heights reaching the area. Additionally, deterministic long- range models are showing very high mid-level moisture that would indicate high PoPs, while the NBM has very low overall PoPs outside of the Northern Idaho Panhandle. Should the higher PoPs end up coming to fruition, areas in far eastern Washington and the Northern Idaho Panhandle could see up to a quarter inch of rain on Saturday. Lower PoPs will lead to roughly a tenth of an inch of rain. Either way, this low pressure system will bring a wetting rain to at least the eastern portion of the forecast area. We`ll be watching this closely, so stay tuned. Sunday afternoon through Monday evening: After the low pressure system moves out of the area, higher heights will allow temperatures to warm by a few degrees. Mostly dry conditions will prevail apart from some lingering mountain rain due to orographic lift. Monday evening through Wednesday: The weather continues to stay overall unsettled as models pick up on another low pressure system moving through, with rain beginning in the Cascades and Northern Mountains before becoming more widespread. Temperatures throughout the extended period hover around normal, with highs mostly in the low to mid 60s. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Showers will continue along a shortwave disturbance over northeast Washington into the northern Panhandle primarily north of a line from KGEG to KCOE through 09Z. An area of low stratus will then form late tonight into Thursday morning over extreme portions of northeast Washington into the northern Panhandle in the vicinity of KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as well as KCQV to KSZT. Expect MVFR ceilings with this stratus cover through the morning on Thursday. Isolated afternoon showers are expected mainly over the mountains on Thursday and unlikely to impact airports. Windy through the Cascades tonight with gusts up to 25-30 kts at KEAT through around 09Z before winds relax. Breezy westerly winds will return in the late afternoon and evening on Thursday, but not as gusty with winds generally up to between 15 kts out of the west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 10% chance of IFR or MVFR stratus impacting KGEG/KSFF/KPUW 12-16z Thursday, with a 40% chance for KCOE. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 42 63 44 57 44 66 / 20 10 20 60 10 40 Coeur d`Alene 44 61 42 56 42 66 / 40 20 20 60 20 40 Pullman 38 59 42 55 40 63 / 10 0 20 60 10 40 Lewiston 46 66 48 62 45 69 / 0 0 30 40 10 40 Colville 38 66 44 58 41 63 / 60 10 30 70 40 60 Sandpoint 43 60 42 56 41 64 / 70 50 20 70 30 50 Kellogg 43 57 41 54 41 64 / 40 20 20 70 20 40 Moses Lake 42 70 47 68 48 69 / 0 10 40 10 10 40 Wenatchee 46 68 46 68 48 66 / 0 10 30 10 10 40 Omak 42 68 47 65 45 66 / 0 10 30 30 20 60 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

823 FXUS66 KPDT 150526 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1026 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 UPDATED AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Winds remain breezy at DLS/PDT/RDM. Winds will decrease heading into the overnight hours and will slightly increase as a weather system gets closer into the later part of Thursday. Highest chance of precip is towards the last few hours and currently only DLS/BDN/RDM have a PROB30 of precipitation. BDN/RDM have a MVFR visibility of 4SM included in their PROB30 but no other site is currently expected to drop to MVFR conditions at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Low clouds passing across the mountain areas with some clear skies over the lowlands, observed from current satellite and radar imagery. The leading edge of the upper ridge gradually builds over the PacNW with the trough continuing eastward from the forecast area. Showers may linger across the Blues, eastern mountains, and WA/OR Cascades this afternoon before dry conditions return this evening into night. The raw ensembles favor a 50-90% probability for light QPF amounts (<0.10 inches) over the mountain areas for today. Sustained winds at 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will remain over the Cascade Gaps through tonight. And due to the marine stratus layer and tight surface pressure including temperature gradients, this resulted in warranting a Wind Advisory for Kittitas Valley having northwest winds exceeding to 35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph through this evening. Later tonight, wind conditions should steadily decrease to breezy (15-25 mph). Wet conditions will return tomorrow late morning at first the Cascades before spreading to the remaining forecast area into Friday. The Northern Blues may receive QPF amounts up to 0.20 inches with the remaining forecast area at 0.10 inches or less. Breezy conditions will persist tomorrow into Friday evening around the Cascade Gaps as well. But, winds should start gradually decreasing Friday night to light. Feaster/97 LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Little change in the overall forecast message from the previous forecast package/shift. Sensible weather concerns are still anticipated to revolve around the passage of what ensemble NWP is advertising as either an upper trough or closed low Saturday through Sunday night. This system will facilitate widespread showers, breezy winds, and isolated thunderstorm chances Saturday with precipitation chances tapering off through Sunday night as the trough moves southeast. The NBM continues to advertise persistent breezy to windy conditions through the forecast period, with probabilities of exceeding advisory-level wind gusts (45 mph) greatest on Sunday; current probabilities are highest for the Kittitas Valley (60-90%) with medium-high chances (40-70%) through the eastern Columbia River Gorge and across wind-prone portions of the Blue Mountain foothills, north-central Oregon, and the lower Columbia Basin. The main item worth noting from the ECMWF EFI is the potential for nearly area-wide atypical winds relative to climatology on Sunday, especially through the Cascade gaps, evidenced by EFI values of 0.5- 0.9. Additionally, ensemble agreement in a precipitation event for the eastern mountains is growing with EFI values of 0.5- 0.7 Saturday. While ensemble-mean 500-mb height and vorticity fields are in good agreement about the general 500-mb height pattern Monday and Tuesday, placing a trough downstream over the Great Plains with quasi-zonal flow over much of the West and a weak shortwave trough over the northern Pacific Northwest, analysis of ensemble clusters teases out two different scenarios; one scenario takes the shortwave farther south over the Pacific Northwest, while the other keeps quasi-zonal flow or weak ridging over the region. The main driver of uncertainty is the location/magnitude of the aforementioned shortwave trough as it moves onshore into British Columbia or northern Washington. The track that favors precipitation and windier conditions for our forecast area is evident in roughly 25% of ensemble members. Plunkett/86 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 41 66 45 66 / 0 0 40 30 ALW 44 66 47 65 / 10 0 40 40 PSC 44 70 46 71 / 0 0 30 10 YKM 42 69 45 70 / 0 10 20 0 HRI 43 69 45 70 / 0 0 30 10 ELN 41 63 43 66 / 0 10 20 10 RDM 33 63 37 67 / 0 10 50 0 LGD 38 63 43 59 / 10 0 50 40 GCD 34 64 41 61 / 10 0 60 20 DLS 45 63 45 68 / 0 20 30 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ026. && $$ SHORT TERM...97 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...95

832 FXUS65 KREV 141812 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1112 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Near average temperatures and drier conditions with light breezes will persist through Friday. * Another weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada bringing an increased likelihood of cooler conditions, gusty winds, rain and mountain snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... * Today: A quick-moving sneaky shortwave will drop through the region today bringing a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Sierra this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, light northwest breezes will keep it feeling coolish today. * Thursday-Friday: Brief high pressure returns across the West through Friday with temperatures warming back to around average for mid May. We`re looking at high temperatures in the mid-70s for western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Alpine and Mono counties. For the eastern Sierra communities, highs will be in the low to upper 60s. * Another Stormy Weekend: Brace yourselves for more weather whiplash as the next spring storm approaches the Sierra and western Nevada. Best to plan for increasing winds, valley rain showers, mountain snow (esp above 8000 ft), and colder temperatures. The first round arrives on Saturday with precipitation spreading across much of NE CA and western Nevada by midday Saturday. The best chances (50- 60%) for showers will be in the Tahoe region northward with lesser chances toward Mono County with a 20-40% chance. Snow levels will be around 8000 feet, so plan on snow showers in the higher elevations. The winds may be the primary hazard with strong west, northwest winds on Saturday switching to gusty northerly winds on Sunday. While it may be quite breezy across much of the Sierra and western Nevada, there are some strong wind signals for the southern Sierra Front (Topaz Lake area southward to Mammoth). If you plan on being outdoors this weekend, particularly in the mountains for any adventures be sure to pack plenty of supplies to battle the wind, colder temperatures, and shower potential. -Edan && .AVIATION... * Winds will be light and mainly from the northwest today, with gusts under 20 kts at all area terminals. 10-15% chances for showers at the Sierra terminals. * Areas of IFR in patchy FZFG are possible at KTRK/KTVL overnight thru 16z Thursday morning. * Another storm is on the horizon for the weekend with more winds, valley rain and mountain snow. There is an increased trend for LLWS and mountain turbulence concerns starting early Saturday morning continuing into Monday morning. -Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

525 FXUS66 KSTO 141952 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1252 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .Discussion... .Synopsis... Drier and warmer weather persist through Friday, with occasionally breezy winds through the end of the week. The next weather system then looks to arrive by the weekend, bringing mountain/foothills thunderstorm chances Saturday, followed by gusty and drying north winds Sunday into next week. Resultant elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday and Monday, potentially lingering into Tuesday, throughout the Valley due to the gusty winds and expected low relative humidity. && .Key Messages... * Today-Friday: -Dry weather and warm temperatures persist with areas of Minor HeatRisk in the Valley. -Occasionally breezy winds, with some north-northwest gusts in the northern/central Sacramento Valley Thursday evening. --Probability of wind gusts > 30 mph late Thursday-early Friday: 20-50% along and west of Interstate 5. * Saturday: -Weather system begins to drop southward from Pacific NW. -15-35% probability of isolated thunderstorms, highest chances across the northern Sacramento Valley and along the Sierra/southern Cascades and adjacent foothills from Interstate 80 northward. -Slight chance of light snowfall above 6000 feet late Saturday- Sunday morning. Probability of snowfall > 1": 10-30% along Sierra/southern Cascades. -Temperatures cooling to near normal, with breezy winds throughout the day. * Sunday - Tuesday: -Current ensemble trends indicate the expected weather system following an inside slider trajectory through the region. -Gusty north to east winds expected to develop Sunday and Monday as this system progresses, with lingering breezy winds into Tuesday. -Probability of gusts 40 mph or higher: --Sunday: 40-70%, highest along and west of I-5 in the Sacramento Valley. --Monday & Tuesday: 20-50% across the northern/central Sacramento Valley and Delta. -Elevated fire weather conditions expected Sunday and Monday, potentially lingering into Tuesday, due to the combination of gusty northerly winds and low relative humidity in the Sacramento Valley. -Warming trend expected early to mid next week, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk across the Valley. .Changes from previous forecast... -Shower and thunderstorm chances shifting primarily to Interstate 80 northward on Saturday. -Slight chance of light snow along Sierra/southern Cascades above 6000 feet. -Elevated fire weather conditions potentially continue into Tuesday. -Areas of Moderate HeatRisk for the Valley expected Monday- Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites next 24 hours. North-northwest winds remain breezy through the day, then becoming lighter after 06z. Winds generally expected to remain 12 kts or less, although some southwesterly gusts to 20 kts possible with Delta breeze influence 00z - 06z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

909 FXUS65 KMSO 141953 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 150 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thursday morning rain for northwest Montana, with light mountain snow above 6,000 feet. - Unsettled pattern persists. Showers and an embedded thunderstorm will continue in the Northern Rockies as a mid- level circulation slowly moves off the east. While lightning is not expected to be prolific, a few strikes here and there will be possible especially in higher terrain. A weak open wave will slide down the backside of the trough over the region overnight. Increasing showers in northwest MT especially along the Continental Divide. A few inches of wet snow will be possible by Thursday morning, mainly in elevations that still have snow on the ground, IE Logan Pass, Glacier National Park. Friday the next open wave breaks off a digging Pacific trough and brings more light precipitation to the region. The trough will continue to dig into Eastern Oregon and Northern Nevada by Saturday and bring a short lull to the current pattern. In addition, southerly flow will allow for a slight warm up. Unfortunately, cloud cover throughout the day will moderate warming keeping temperatures seasonable, roughly mid-60s in Western MT and low 70s north-central ID. A mid-level low slides into the newly formed trough on Sunday, reigniting shower activity Sunday. Cooler temperatures will lower instability, but there is at least a 20% chance in NW MT and 50-70% chance elsewhere of receiving 0.25" of precipitation by Monday morning. The trend for unsettled and cooler weather will continue through at least Wednesday. Then the model ensembles suggest a 70% probability of a ridge of high pressure developing, with at least the ECWMF deterministic model suggesting `summer-like` warmth. The remaining 30% of models fall into the `Groundhog Day` solution, you guessed it, unsettled and cooler. && .AVIATION...Lower ceilings and mountain obscuration are expected today from Lemhi County to southwest Montana due to wrap- around rain and snow. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across northwest and west-central Montana, with potential impacts including: lightning, gusty winds to 20 knots, brief heavy rain, pea-sized hail or graupel. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

074 FXUS65 KBOI 150241 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 841 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 .DISCUSSION...West or northwest winds, and showers (over higher terrain in Idaho) were slowly decreasing this evening as the main upper trough shifted out of Idaho and into Wyoming. Thursday looks drier, slightly warmer, and less windy than today as a weakening upper ridge passes through. Another round of light rain showers (30 to 60% chance in the mountains and 15-30% chance in the valleys) is forecast Thursday night and Friday morning, in both Oregon and Idaho, as the next north Pacific trough comes inland. Current forecast is on track. No updates. && .AVIATION...VFR. MVFR conditions possible at KMYL Thursday morning with low cloud ceilings. However, it was not consistent across models, thus held off in TAFs. Rain/snow showers possible over the central Idaho mountains through Thursday afternoon. Precipitation chances return to SE OR late Thursday afternoon. Mountain obscuration in low clouds/showers. Snow levels: 5000-6500 feet MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt, KTWF and KJER experiencing gusts to 25 kts Thursday morning and afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N to NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Winds W to NW 3-8kt overnight then increasing to W to NW 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kts during the day. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Showers associated with an upper trough to our east will continue mainly over the higher elevations of SW Idaho before diminishing late this evening. There have been no lightning strikes yet, but there is still a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of a thunderstorm or two this evening. The trough moves east of the area tonight and Thursday, followed by a weak upper ridge and drier conditions. However, lingering moisture in central ID (east of McCall and Idaho City) results in a 15-30 percent chance of afternoon showers. A weak upper trough embedded in a northwest flow aloft could bring another round of showers Thursday night and Friday morning, once again favoring the higher elevations of SE Oregon and SW Idaho. Precip amounts appear to be on the low side, generally less than a tenth of an inch. Windy conditions, especially in s-central Idaho, will improve later this evening. Locally breezy conditions will continue, however, Thursday and Friday afternoons. Temperatures remain below normal through the period. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A Pacific low pressure system will bring ample moisture into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. Widespread precipitation is expected to arrive in east OR and southwest ID starting Saturday. Instability will increase as the cold core low moves overhead, leading to a threat of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Latest model runs came out of agreement for Sunday, which will affect the location of lingering precipitation. These model discrepancies also reduce forecast confidence for temperatures and the thunderstorm threat for Sunday. Overall, total precipitation amounts for Sat/Sun may be notable, with the potential for 0.75-1.00" closer to the NV border. Snow levels will average 6500-7500 feet MSL during this time, and therefore light snow accumulations can be expected for those higher elevations. In addition to precip, windy conditions will develop across the area, especially on Sunday for the western Snake Plain and portions of east Oregon. A flat, upper level ridge will move in from the east on Monday and promote drier and warmer conditions. Winds will decrease from Sunday, but should remain breezy through Monday evening. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with seasonable temperatures expected. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....CH SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....SH

937 FXUS65 KLKN 142010 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 110 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Upper level low pressure just to our east will continue to promote showers and isolated thunderstorms over far northeastern Nevada today. High pressure will bring drier and warmer conditions Thursday. The next frontal system will move across the Silver State Friday through this weekend, bringing more widespread chances for accumulating rainfall. High pressure looks to bring drier and warmer conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night The pesky closed upper-level low pressure center that has been camped over the area the past few days continues its slow exodus to the east this afternoon. With mid-level height rises over the region, afternoon temperatures will be slightly warmer in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmest over the valleys of Humboldt and northern Nye Counties. Scattered showers continue on radar once again, with brief downpours and isolated chances for lightning (20% chance over Elko County), though instability is less than the past couple of days and a General Thunder Outlook from the SPC only clips far northeastern Elko County. Cannot rule out brief periods of graupel as well. Brief light snow accumulations above 7000 feet as well. Showers will once again wind down over night with skies clearing over the entire area. This will allow for temperatures to cool quite quickly, dropping into the low to mid 30s (some 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid May). High pressure will build further eastward across the Great Basin for warmer and milder conditions as highs climb back closer to normal in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday The main weather feature of the long term period is the long wave trough that will push two waves through the region over the weekend. On Friday zonal flow behind a retreating upper level trough to the east resides over the Great Basin where afternoon highs will reach into the 60s. This is short lived however due to an Aleutian low building into the western CONUS. Trough amplification occurs over CA/OR Saturday morning in the form of a short wave that will quickly strengthen as it moves into the state by Saturday afternoon. Vorticity and frontogenesis increase over the state by midday Saturday when precipitation spreads from a few isolated showers over northwest NV to more widespread showers and thunderstorm activity across northern and central NV through the afternoon and evening. Saturday looks to be the wettest day of the period with rain accumulations of up to half an inch are possible in eastern and east central NV. This coincides with the best convective chances for the region where 120-180 J/kg of CAPE are available combined with LI`s in the 0 to -2 range and PW values more than capable of producing mixed wet and dry convection. Increased frontogenesis and the passage of the associated boundary with the trough will enhance the convective growth needed to reach forecasted accumulations. Rain cooled temperatures Saturday and Sunday will top out in the 40s and 50s as the pair of systems impact the region. Snow levels remain at or above 6500 feet as this system pushes through keeping frozen precipitation confined to higher elevations and peak across the area. By Sunday morning a low pressure center develops in the base of the parent trough over the ID/NV border. This low will persist over the state through Monday even as the second shortwave develops to the west as rides the upper level flow of the parent troughs axis into the area. The second wave impacts the state Sunday and contributes an additional 0.1 to 0.4 over Nye and southern Lander and Eureka counties as well as 0.1-0.3 over eastern NV. Showers persist into Monday when the second boundary drags through the region ending precipitation from west to east by Monday afternoon. Ridging builds into the western CONUS Tuesday and Wednesday bringing quieter weather to the state and afternoon highs into the 70s. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals except for KEKO and KENV where an isolated shower is possible through Wednesday afternoon as the low pressure system over the area pushes eastward away from the area by Thursday morning. Wind gusts in the 20-25KT range are anticipated at KEKO, KELY, KBAM, KENV, and KTPH through the early evening before diminishing after sunset. Thursday conditions will be pleasant with no precipitation anticipated at all terminals and wind gusts in the 18-20KT range at terminals through Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers across zones 438, 469, and 470, with a 20% chance for isolated lightning strikes across 469 and 470 this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph today and tomorrow with afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph over zones 469 and 470. Drier conditions Thursday and early Friday as transient high pressure slides across the Great Basin. Another slow-moving area of low pressure will bring widespread rainfall and unsettled conditions late Friday and through the weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 84/99/99/84