561 FXUS66 KSEW 030424 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 824 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Next system moving inland mainly to the south Monday. The system will try and lift north into Western Washington Monday night into Tuesday. Organized front arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday but with the jet aimed into Northern California and Southern Oregon this system will be weakening as it moves into the state. A more consolidated system moving into the area late in the week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The latest forecast remains on track as shower activity dissipates over the northern interior; no updates this evening. Otherwise, much of the region is seeing a break in the action today. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s overnight. We`re under SW flow on Monday with moisture spreading up from the south. Areas from around Everett north may not see much rain at all. May see light snow at White Pass and Paradise on Mount Rainier during the afternoon but snow levels will be rising through the evening. We`ll see a short break in the weather on Tuesday with upper level ridging, then more wet and locally windy weather Tuesday night as a stronger Pacific storm system moves in. The windiest areas will be along the coast and western strait Tuesday night. 33 && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weather pattern remains active through the end of the week with additional systems clipping the region. We`re in for more wet and locally windy conditions through the period. Back-to- back periods of moderate to heavy rain will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County with flooding possible. Total rainfall over the lowlands ranges from 1-2" in the interior to up to 4" along the coast. Meanwhile, the coast and strait will see high astronomical tides starting Wednesday (and possibly Thursday) with minor coastal flooding possible. Moving on, the pattern looks quieter over the weekend with high pressure building over the Pac NW. 33 && .AVIATION... Southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Monday as another upper trough approaches the region. Surface winds are light and variable with speeds 5 kts or less. Mostly VFR conditions in place this evening, although some transient MVFR/IFR conditions and fog are emerging in isolated spots. BLI saw this happen for a brief period of time...so terminals that are more prone to fog have had TEMPO groups inserted to cover this possibility. This appears to only be a short-term issue though. With significant advent of high to mid level clouds, this should limit if not eliminate fog potential overnight. Will continue to monitor just in case fog proves stubborn. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to persist into Monday morning. Monday afternoon sees rainfall moving up from the south, and as such rain and lower cigs will spread from south to north. While northern terminals may see cigs lower, they look to remain VFR with current model guidance. Southern terminals...mainly OLM and HQM, but possibly going as far north as SeaTac...could see MVFR conditions emerge with rain by late afternoon/early evening. KSEA...VFR conditions this evening through Monday morning. Lowered ceilings and vis look to return Monday afternoon as rainfall resettles across the region. Latest models show cigs falling to borderline VFR/MVFR conditions Monday evening around 03Z. North to northeasterly winds with speeds 4-8 kts. 18 && .MARINE... Surface ridging over the coastal waters will shift inland this evening with light offshore flow developing. A weak surface trough moving northeastward off the Oregon coast will dissipate as it moves onshore over Western Washington later on Monday evening. A broad and deep area of low pressure will move into the offshore waters on Tuesday evening. A vigorous frontal system associated with a sub 980 millibar surface low lifting northward toward Haida Gwaii is expected to produce headlines for all waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Gales are likely for the coastal waters as well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters during this period. A series of additional fronts will follow into the end of the week maintaining a very active weather pattern. High seas will maintain over the coastal waters throughout the week ahead. Seas 12 to 15 feet this evening will gradually subside below 10 feet briefly Monday night or early Tuesday before building back to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday through the rest of the week. McMillian && .HYDROLOGY... Back-to-back wet Pacific storm system will keep the rivers flowing off the Olympics and Cascades running high over the latter half of the week. Flooding is possible on Skokomish River in Mason County. Several rivers will be near action stage with a few within (Snoqualmie, Skykomish, Snohomish). Most rivers will crest on Friday and then recede over the weekend. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

121 FXUS66 KPQR 022322 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 321 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...The next round of rain moves into the region beginning Monday morning as a compact surface low develops offshore and moves through western Oregon. Trending drier on Tuesday aside from a few spotty light showers. The weather pattern becomes much more active Tuesday night through Friday morning as a strong low pressure system develops offshore and sends a series of fronts into western WA/OR. Expect widespread rain and gusty winds with each frontal passage, with the heaviest period of rain expected Thursday and Thursday night. This is also when the strongest winds are expected with max wind gusts likely peaking between at least 30-40 mph inland and 50-55 mph at the coast. In addition, coastal flooding is expected along portions of Highway 101 and Fraser Road in Tillamook County around high tide on Wednesday from 10 AM to 2 PM PST, with water up to one foot above ground level. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday...Satellite and surface weather observations from Sunday afternoon depicted mostly clear skies across southwest WA and northwest OR, aside from southwest WA and far northwest OR where high clouds were beginning to increase. Cloud cover will increase over the entire area Sunday night into Monday morning as a compact mesolow over the coastal waters moves northeastward towards the central Oregon coast. An area of light to moderate stratiform rain will accompany this low, spreading over the area between 3-9am Monday. Rain will then persist through the day on Monday before transitioning to off and on light rain showers Monday night. Rain should be heaviest Monday afternoon and evening with most locations picking up at least 0.5 inches of rain (50-80% chance for 0.5 inches or more, with the highest probabilities in the mountains and at the coast). Fortunately, hi-res model guidance suggest hourly rain rates will stay under 0.20-0.25 in/hr, suggesting urban flooding will not be a concern. There are no concerns for river flooding with this system either. Lastly, a brief period of gusty south winds with peak wind gusts up to 30-45 mph are likely along the central Oregon coast to the south of Pacific City Monday evening as the mesolow moves inland. The strongest wind gusts will occur along beaches and headlands. Come Tuesday, an upper level shortwave ridge will bring and end to precipitation aside from a few spotty light rain showers lingering. Winds will be lighter by then with mostly cloudy skies. -23 .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by an active weather pattern with periods of wet and windy conditions, especially Tuesday night through Thursday night. This is when models and their ensembles show good agreement for a strong low pressure system offshore near the Gulf of Alaska. Although the center of this low pressure system is not expected to make landfall in southwest WA or western OR, a series of strong frontal passages associated with this low will move inland, with each front bringing gusty southerly winds and widespread rain to the region. The first front will arrive Tuesday night, bringing mainly light to moderate rain with wind gusts up to 25-35 mph inland and up to 40-45 mph at the coast. However, rain will become heavier on Wednesday while winds likely increase with gusts up to at least 30-40 mph inland and up to 50-55 mph at the coast. This would be strong enough to result in some tree damage and power outages, but would not be strong enough for widespread downed trees and significant impacts. That said, there is still some uncertainty regarding exact wind speeds, as some model ensemble guidance shows higher winds. The NBM currently suggests a 5-20% chance for max wind gusts over 45 mph inland, and a 20-40% chance for max wind gusts over 55 mph along and near coast (mainly for beaches and headlands and exposed ridges in the Coast Range). If wind gusts of this magnitude materialize, wind headlines would be needed as impacts such as downed trees and power outages would become more widespread. While this is not the most likely outcome at this time, the forecast is worth monitoring over the next couple of days for potential changes. Yet another frontal system is set to arrive Thursday, bringing a renewed round of rain and gusty southerly winds. Wind speeds with this front look to be fairly similar to Wednesday, except at the coast and higher elevations in the Coast Range where probabilities for max wind gusts over 55 mph are relatively higher (35-60% chance). This frontal system is also on track to produce the heaviest rain of any of the frontal systems impacting the area this week. WPC QPF amounts from 4am Thursday through 4am Friday range between 1-1.25 inches for inland valleys, 1.5-2.0 inches for the coast and Cascade foothills, and 2-3 inches for the Coast Range and south WA/north OR Cascades. Given all the rain that is forecast to fall prior to the system on Thursday, rising river levels will be a concern. The main question that remains is whether or not enough rain will fall for some rivers to reach flood stage on Wednesday and/or Thursday. According to the latest HEFS guidance, the probability for any given river to reach minor flood stage is generally 10% or less, except a 25% chance for the Wilson River near Tillamook. Another river of concern would be the Grays River near Rosburg. Small creeks and streams are more likely to see some minor flooding. Lastly, minor urban flooding will also be possible, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Rain chances remain in the forecast Friday through Saturday night, however ensemble guidance suggests rain amounts will be lighter and less impactful. Winds will also be weaker by then. -23 && .AVIATION...Expect mostly clear skies through the TAF period, with rain tomorrow morning for all terminals. Specifically, expect rain to begin along the coast around 15-17Z Monday and inland around 17-19Z Monday. While VFR conditions will persist most of the period, this rain will likely bring MVFR conditions to the region around 18-20Z Monday (40-60% chance for MVFR conditions). Southern and central Willamette Valley terminals may experience deteriorated conditions around 04-08Z Monday if fog/stratus is to form again overnight. Current guidance suggests a 10-30% chance for IFR/LIFR conditions for KSLE and southward. Winds will be out of the north through most of the day, then shift more northeasterly to easterly overnight. Expect winds to remain between 5-10 kt during the evening, with a few terminals (KEUG, KTTD) potentially seeing gusts up to 20 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR conditions through most of the TAF period, with a 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs around 18Z Monday. Expect northerly winds around 4-8 kt through the day, then easterly 5-10 kt by 9-12Z Monday. ~12 && .MARINE...Brief high pressure passes overhead today into Monday. Winds will turn north to northeast and increase as a thermal trough forms over the coast through tonight. Seas are expected to remain around 11-13 ft at 13-14 seconds through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM PST Monday. Additionally, with a low pressure system potentially moving through our southern waters on Monday and bringing a 50-60% chance for wind gusts over 34 kt, a Gale Watch has been issued from 4 PM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday for the inner and outer waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR. An active pattern will return during the middle of this week as a couple of frontal systems bring strong Gales or even Storm force winds, along with elevated seas. Looking at 24 hour probabilities for wind gusts, there is an 80 to 90% chance for Gale Force winds (gusts > 34 kt) in the far outer waters on Tuesday then spreading over all of the coastal waters for Wednesday and Thursday. The probability for Storm Force winds (gusts > 48 kt) is around 25-50% chance each day Tuesday through Thursday. Note that higher probabilities will stay elevated along the inner waters during the duration of these weather systems. Seas are also expected to increase, with mainly wind driven seas pushing into the mid to upper teens by Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. Guidance currently suggests a 5-10% chance that seas will exceed 20 ft. There is still plenty of uncertainty in exact details but the active pattern is expected to persist.~12/03 && .BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-14 ft at 14-15 seconds will bring a high threat of sneaker waves through Monday along the North and Central Oregon Coast, and the South Washington Coast. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets. Those participating in razor clam digs should exercise caution. Additionally, there is a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal overflow flooding during high tide from 10 AM to 2 PM Wednesday for the South Washington Coast, Clatsop County Coast, and Tillamook County Coast. Minor flooding, up to 1 foot above ground level, during high tides is expected in the low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the lower reaches of the coastal rivers. Expect flooding along portions of Highway 101, including near Raymond, Seaside, and Fraser Road in Tillamook County. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Remain out of flood waters to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never drive on flooded roads. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ101-102. WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ201. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

973 FXUS66 KMFR 030002 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 402 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated. && .AVIATION...03/00Z TAFs...Conditions will remain VFR this afternoon into early this evening. Then late this evening and tonight, expect lingering moisture and to allow areas of low clouds and patchy fog to develop in valleys west of the Cascades. This is expected to bring IFR/LIFR tonight, including at Roseburg and Medford. On Monday morning, an approaching front will spread clouds into the area with rain developing along the coast, with rain spreading inland during the day. This will bring IFR/MFR conditions to the coast late Monday morning and afternoon. Additionally, as winds increase aloft, expect a period of wind shear along the coast Monday morning and early afternoon. Inland, expect low clouds to lift to VFR in the mid morning. Then, high resolution models indicate that gusty winds will develop in the afternoon at most all area TAF sites, strongest at the coast. Areas of MFR ceilings will spread inland west of the Cascades in the late afternoon as rain increases. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 215 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025/ DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way into next weekend. There will be several systems impacting the area between now and next weekend: the first a compact surface low passing just offshore Monday, followed by a very robust system Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by yet another front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives late next weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern given the expected higher snow levels. The big change in the forecast focuses on Monday. Yesterday, model suites depicted a slow moving warm front moving north into the region then nearly stalling out, producing light rain and breezes Monday into Tuesday. Today, those same suites have nearly unanimously agreed on the development of a compact surface low offshore tonight, that then quickly slides right up to the southern Oregon coast before passing onshore just to our north. These lows can be very impactful, but are also notoriously difficult to forecast. There is a chance that the models switch up again tonight, but a glance at satellite imagery offshore does show a little swirl of clouds beginning to form up right where the models expect, so confidence is better than expected. This low will sweep up the coast Monday afternoon, and model pressure gradients suggest that high winds are possible for much of the coast, but are almost guaranteed for the capes and headlands, as well as some of our more exposed coastline. Have issued a High Wind Warning for those portions of the coast, with the idea that strong winds could spread to other areas as well depending on the track and strength of the low. Breezy winds are expected across the area with this low, but are not expected to be impactful at this time. Also, the system will bring a burst of rain, again concentrated along and west of the coastal mountains. Winds die down and most areas should see precipitation come to an end Monday night, but the break will be brief. The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. The surface low on Monday has altered the pattern sightly with some of the downstream systems, with some minor changes in timing and intensity, but only slightly. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it still looks likely that wind headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. The negative tilt in the upper level trough also suggests that that stronger winds could impact portions of the West Side as well, including the I-5 corridor from Ashland to Medford, and in some of the other roughly south/north oriented valleys. Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500). This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates from the tropics near Hawai`i. A substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and estuaries. Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter weather. Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain. This storm, however, will coincide with the highest King Tides around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are depicting a small storm surge with the event, along with high surf conditions which will push water into local bays and estuaries, which will make tidal influences even stronger. Some localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay, and erosion along area beaches will be a concern. After a brief break Friday into Saturday, we are seeing the signs of another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. While the model suites agree on a brief period of ridging and dry weather around roughly Saturday, there is quite a bit of variation in model guidance regarding that next storm system at this time range, so confidence is low. Confidence remain high, however, that the active storm pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. -BPN MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...A mix of active weather and impactful swell looks to support unsettled to chaotic seas through the week and into next weekend. For today, continuing northwest swell will support steep seas in all waters through Monday afternoon. A new feature has developed in forecast guidance for Monday. A compact area of low pressure looks to move over the area from late Monday morning to early Tuesday morning. This low will bring gusty southerly winds as it moves from south to north. The strongest winds are most likely to be north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm of shore under a coastal jet. Winds in this jet may exceed 45 kts. As the path of this low has some variability and with near-gale to gale gusts forecast for most waters, a Gale Warning has been issued to cover all area waters for Monday evening through Tuesday morning to ensure awareness of possible hazardous conditions. Conditions may briefly improve later Tuesday morning before a significant front approaches. Winds increase on Tuesday afternoon and peak early Wednesday morning. Widespread gale gusts are expected and may approach 50 kt in outer waters. Additionally, marine thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday morning. Winds ease Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but very steep and hazardous long-period swell follows through the day. High surf is expected, with current guidance building 22-26 ft surf heights. King Tides are expected on Thursday, which may increase the impact of hazardous conditions. Bar crossings may become especially dangerous and fishing infrastructure may be vulnerable. Finally, a third front will bring additional gusty southerly winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening. These gusts could approach gale speeds, adding to an already chaotic time period. The Tuesday afternoon-Thursday evening period will receive full hazard products in the near future, but additional guidance will help to improve the timing and of those products and the expected conditions. Weather activity eases on Friday and Saturday, but lingering swell is likely to support steep to very steep and hazardous seas into the first half of the weekend. Active weather may return later in the weekend or early next week. -TAD BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...Hazardous beach conditions are possible on Thursday as a strong storm is expected to bring a large long period west swell to the coast. This may result in large breaking waves of around 23 to 26 ft. High Surf conditions may be elevated by high "King" tides during this time period. This situation may create hazardous conditions along the Southern Oregon Coast on Thursday. Impacts could include large breaking waves within the surf zone, which could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines as well as damage exposed coastal infrastructure. Waves could wash over rocks and jetties, and sweep unsuspecting people out to see. During high surf conditions, avoid area beaches and exposed coastal areas. Never turn your back on the ocean! Additionally, low lying streets susceptible to impacts from King tides and high surf may become flooded. Never drive through flooded waters. While there is still some uncertainty in the exact details, this looks to be a potentially dangerous situation setting up along the coast. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as this storm nears. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. && $$

275 FXUS66 KEKA 022245 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 245 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather expected today. Wet weather returns on Monday. Strong storm to bring potentially damaging winds, heavy rain and increased risk for urban and small stream flooding Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain and potential flooding impacts to continue on Thursday before rain tapers off on Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty south winds returns on Monday. - Strong Atmospheric River to bring strong and damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a risk for urban and small stream flooding Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Higher than normal tides next week with storm surge, promoting coastal flooding expected in Humboldt Bay-North Spit and Crescent City. - Rain and potential flooding impacts to continue Thursday into Friday. .DISCUSSION...A surface high pressure building quickly over the area is promoting drying and warming conditions today. Despite some high cirrus clouds (CI) streaming southeast, mostly sunny skies. Breezy northwesterly winds have been developing over the coastal headlands this afternoon. Max temperatures observed have been running generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer across much of the interior, while coastal areas have been running cooler with the marine sea breezes. Wet and unsettled weather returns on Monday as the next of a series of front along high IVT plume impacts the area with rain and gusty south winds. The system on Monday will be driven by a compact surface low swinging northeastward toward the Oregon Coast Monday afternoon. Southerly winds is expected to increase along the North Coaost ahead of the frontal boundary Monday morning. Strong southerly winds are forecast develop over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties Tuesday afternoon through early evening. Gusts from 35 to 45 mph is expected, especially in Del Norte County. High-resolution models suggest a period of moderate to heavy rainfall arriving late afternoon for Del Norte and early evening for Humboldt. Models then vary showing the upper-level low moving with the system, resulting in a split front. The front should push southward during the evening and overnight hours Monday and provide modest amounts of rain to Mendocino and Lake Counties as well. The next shortwave trough will rapidly approach on Tuesday and precipitation will once again increase throughout from south to north by morning and afternoon on Tuesday. A second, stronger system will intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday as a potent upstream trough deepens and a surface cyclone spins up offshore in response. Ensemble means and deterministic GFS and ECMWF remain in a good agreement with the deep trough becoming negatively tilted by 12Z Wednesday. This will send a plume of high PWATS and high IVT into NW CA. Ensemble means indicate a moderate AR while control runs indicate a stronger atmospheric river event. Heavy rainfall is probable. Strong damaging south winds are also probable (60-90% chance) as surface pressure gradient tighten Tuesday night and a low level jet at 925mb up to 70 kts develops along the coast. The 12Z ECMWF Extreme Forects Index highlight widespre 90-99th percentile, with localize 100th percentile, across Northwest California on Wednesday. A well- mixed boundary layer near or along the surface front will allow for higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. There is a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the lowest elevations widespread. For higher elevations and coastal headlands, NBM indicates a 60-90% chance for wind gusts greater than 55 mph in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. ECMWF ensemble mean 6 hourly wind gusts are over 50 mph for the Del Norte Coast, specifically CEC and over 40 mph for the greater Humboldt Bay area, ACV, EKA and FOT. There are more extreme members from 55-70 mph in the ECMWF distribution. Stronger wind gusts over 60 mph are highly probable over the coastal mountains. A wind advisory will be necessary while a high wind warning remains less certain (less than 50% chance). Gusts over 55 mph is a sure thing for many of our wind prone ridges and venturi-effect RAWS, specifically in the King Range. Regarding precipitation, substantial rain is expected for much of the area Tuesday through Thursday, with the heaviest rates likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. The probability of 6 hours precipitation greater than 1 inch is 40-70% for Del Norte and Humboldt counties from 10 PM Tue to 10 AM Wednesday. While 25-40% for Mendocino and Trinity counties, and limited to 10-15% chance for Lake County. Colder temperatures aloft behind the frontal passage could support greater instability with heavy rain showers and possibly thunderstorms continuing Wednesday afternoon and evening or into Thursday. There is a fairly large spread in precipitation estimates. Comparing the low end and high end amounts (25th and 75th percentile) for 48 hour precipitation (4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday). The high-end amounts from NBM (75th percentile) for 48 hr of precipitation (4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Thursday) indicates 2.5 to 4.0 inches in Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity counties, with locally up to 4.5 inches over exposed ridges. While 1.5 to 2.5 inches for Mendocino and Lake counties, with heaviest along the coast. The low end precipitation (25th percentile) suggest 1.0 to 2.50 inches, with locally up to 3.0 inches over the southwest windward facing terrain. Details will become clearer in the coming days. This an unusually strong AR event for early November and will need to be watched for the possibility of urban and small stream flooding. Another plume of moisture will take aim on the Pacific NW Thu-Fri and bring another round of moderate to locally heavy rain to NW CA. There are considerable timing difference with large spreads in 12-24 hour rain amounts. Once again urban and small stream flooding will be possible as well as rock and mudslides in steep terrain. A break in the parade of storms is forecast later on Friday into Saturday as the flow amplifies in advance of another trough that is forecast to dig over the central Pacific. This next trough may bring more light to moderate rain as early as Sat. The frontal boundary may stall offshore and take til Sun to arrive. /ZVS && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Poorly modeled quickly clearing skies and surface moisture from light rain/drizzle aided in fog development Sunday morning. The bulk of the lingering terrain locked stratus faded midday Sunday afternoon. Diurnal drying, and increasing southerly winds will greatly reduce chances for fog outside of the wind protected interior valleys tonight. Shallow stratus and potentially brief fog visibility is forecast to increase along the coast overnight as southerly winds strengthen. Southeast winds begin a slow strengthening trend overnight. These winds will be initially stronger over Del Norte, where there is the lowest probability for IFR or lower CIGS/VIS. The winds will be slower to increase farther south along the North Coast, where much higher chances for LIFR exist (60%). Current thinking is the winds will increase enough early Monday morning to mostly prevent lasting fog formation at ACV. There is growing indications a shallow band of stratus advects up the Russian River Valley and into UKI early Monday morning from the southerly flow. Have introduced a scattered layer in the 18Z TAFs, and this will be reevaluated for potential greater coverage in the coming 0/6Z TAF issuance. JJW && .MARINE...A large, long period WNW swell will slowly subside over the next few days. Northerly winds will trend much lower this afternoon. Combined sea heights from the short period seas and fading WNW swell will remain near 14 ft into Sunday night. An area of low pressure will clip the waters Monday. This system has trended farther south, increasing the magnitude of southerly winds for our waters. Winds are expected to gust to Gale strength Monday afternoon and evening for the northern outer zone 470 as the low clips the waters. A Gale Warning has been applied to this zone for Monday. A strong frontal system will begin moving in Tuesday when southerly winds quickly strengthen. Strong Gale conditions are forecast, with Storm force gusts over 50 kts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Short period seas will build to 15 to 17 ft Wednesday in response to the Storm force winds. A large post frontal westerly swell will then build in Thursday as southerly winds increase again from a secondary trough. Gale criteria may be met from this second system. JJW && .COASTAL FLOODING...Starting on Tuesday, astronomical high tides will near or exceed 8 ft at the North Spit tide gauge. The highest tides, at around 8.5 ft will in occur in the late mornings through midday on Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong southerly winds are forecast through this timeframe and will further contribute to a positive tidal anomaly. Water levels may reach 10 ft at North Spit when high tides align with the strong southerly winds. Currently, the strongest southerly winds are forecast Wednesday morning, but a slightly higher tide is forecast Thursday. Expect Coastal Flood Advisory issuance, with the possibility of a Coastal Flood Warning around Humboldt Bay if confidence increase of the southerly wind anomaly. The high tides, heavy rainfall, and tidal anomaly may require an expansion of an advisory along much of the coast Wednesday and Thursday. JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for PZZ450. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PST Monday for PZZ470. Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

681 FXUS66 KMTR 030425 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 825 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 239 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Hazardous beach conditions along Pacific Coast - Beneficial rainfall expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the heaviest expected over the North Bay - Potential for gusty winds with cold frontal passage Wednesday morning, 40-50 mph across Bay Area and North Bay && .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 Skies are mostly clear this evening with coastal stratus confined to the Big Sur coast south of Pt Sur. It was an ideal early November Sunday across the region with comfortable highs in the 70s and lower 80s most areas with some 60s at the beaches. The local SFO-Sac gradient was neutral or slightly offshore today but has turned back to 0.4 mb onshore with some NW winds being reported on the runways of SFO. Some shallow coastal stratus and fog may start to reform overnight into Monday morning along the coast. Will have to watch that overnight for Monday morning commute impacts. High pressure will be the main driver of our weather for one more day on Monday. Temps will start a cooling trend with the return of onshore breezes but dry and pleasant weather to start the work/school week. Clouds will increase Monday night ahead of the incoming system with some far North Bay light rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Initial rain will be confined to near the Mendocino county line in far NW Sonoma county. 00z Nam trends suggest the main frontal boundary will arrive late Tuesday night into Weds morning. Key messaging and qpf mentioned below still look good. Main message after looking at 18 and 00z Nam is to expect impacts for the Weds morning commute for nearly all of the Bay Area with the heaviest rains for the North Bay. Wind impacts will need to be considered with Wind Advisories looking more likely for the North Bay coast and hills. 925 mb winds on the Nam are showing 55kt sustained winds late Tuesday night into Weds morning. Take advantage of the quiet weather on Monday to make some early season storm preparations around your property. Check storm drains, gutters and secure loose objects. Expect the Weds morning commute to be adversely impacted with wet roads, ponding of water and clogged storm drains. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 239 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 (This evening through Monday) Mostly clear skies have returned to the region with temperatures forecast to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the interior with 60s closer to the coast. Tonight, expecting low clouds and/or fog to return to coastal areas and the North Bay with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. For Monday, temperatures will begin to cool with widespread onshore flow across the region. The most notable cool down will be across the North Bay with increased cloud cover ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. However, temperatures will remain near average across the interior with below average near the coast. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 239 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 (Monday night through next Saturday) By Tuesday morning, a cold front will begin to approach the North Bay with light prefrontal rain beginning over the far northern portions of Sonoma County. Southerly winds will also increase ahead of the system throughout the day on Tuesday as a surface low moves inland over Oregon and/or far northern California. As such, rain will likely be heaviest in the higher terrain along the coast of the North Bay through Tuesday night as orographic lifting takes place. A mid/upper level trough will then drive the cold front across the North Bay late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and farther south as the day progresses. There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms over the North Bay and Bay Area as the frontal boundary moves through with chances tapering off as one moves southward. Across the Central Coast, there will be a less than 5% chance of thunderstorms. However, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder across this region as well. We are likely to see 40-50 mph southerly winds with higher gusts in the regions higher elevations, especially ahead of the cold front Wednesday morning. Thus, a Wind Advisory is likely late Tuesday night through Wednesday especially across the North Bay, Bay Area, and the Santa Cruz Mountains. The heaviest rainfall will be across the North Bay where we could see between 1.50"-2.50" in the coastal ranges and higher elevations of the North Bay and 0.75"-2.00" in the North Bay Valleys (highest in places such as Cloverdale) by Wednesday night. Between 0.50"- 1.00" in the City of San Francisco and the coastal ranges of San Mateo and the Santa Cruz Mountains. The Santa Lucia Range can expect between 0.25"-0.75". As one heads southward and inland, generally between 0.10"-0.50" can be expected across the Santa Clara Valley and across Monterey and San Benito counties. All of this said, the greatest potential for flooding will be minor to moderate across the North Bay with flood pron areas at greatest risk. Drier conditions return by late Wednesday night into Thursday with generally zonal flow developing aloft in wake of the exiting trough. By next weekend, conditions become more unsettled as troughing develops across the Pacific Northwest. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 327 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 Generally VFR conditions across the region with some lingering stratus along the immediate Big Sur coast and high clouds over the Central Coast. Gentle onshore breezes should continue through the evening hours, with winds turning light overnight. Dry air will intrude into the lower layers from a baroclinic low off the coast near the Oregon-California border, but most stratus development tonight should be radiative in nature. Outside of Monterey Bay, prime period for stratus development will be after midnight through Monday morning with the stratus dissipating after sunrise. Gentle onshore flow should return to the region Monday afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... Moderate confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period. Select high resolution models are showing a chance (less than 10% probability) for radiative fog or stratus at the terminal early Monday morning, with higher chances for stratus through the Golden Gate with development across the East Bay terminals. Any stratus that does develop mixes out late Monday morning. Light to gentle northwest breezes continue through the evening hours, turning light overnight before resuming Monday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with light to gentle onshore breezes through the evening hours, with LIFR-IFR stratus expected to develop in the early overnight hours. Stratus mixes out late Monday morning as the onshore winds resume. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 327 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 Fresh to strong northerly breezes will diminish to become a moderate northwesterly breeze tomorrow. Widespread hazardous conditions will develop Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday with near-gale force southerly winds with gale force gusts, rough to very rough seas, rainfall, and a chance for thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 347 AM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 A long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches through tomorrow. High surf conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...RWW SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

933 FXUS66 KOTX 022329 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 329 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather remains active through the week. - Periods of winter driving conditions over Cascade passes. && .SYNOPSIS... Several storm systems will impact the region through the week, each bringing valley rain and high mountain snow. Mountain passes could have winter driving conditions through the week. Breezy winds across the Basin Tuesday and Friday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday: A 130kt upper level jet over the Pacific Northwest will track small Low pressure system into the northern OR coastline into Monday. It will bring increasing mid to high level clouds to the Inland Northwest for Sunday evening. High pressure over Southern BC is keeping the moisture along southern WA and Lower ID Panhandle through the morning. Precip chances will creep further North as the Low continues to move Southwest to Northeast across the Inland Northwest. By Monday afternoon, the region has at least a 40% chance of precip excluding the Okanogan Valley(20%). Precip amounts are highest along the Cascades and Central Panhandle mountains with around half an inch. The rest of the region can expect up to two tenths. For precip type, snow levels will start around 3500ft before rising through the day. It will keep the low lands as rain. Stevens and Washington Pass have a 70% probability of at least 2 inches of snow through Tuesday morning. These areas could get as much as 5 inches. Snow levels for Lookout Pass will be around 6000ft limiting snow impacts. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and 30s. Mondays highs will be in the 40s and low 50s. Any precip chances will diminish be Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday: As the jet and remains of the low exit the region, the Pacific Northwest will become wedged between a strengthen ridge east of the Continental Divide and a deepening trough along the coast. Any precip chances will diminish be Tuesday morning. A Gulf of Alaska Low will bring a wave of moisture across the Inland Northwest that is around 200% of normal precipitable water (0.8-1 inch). Precip chances will be at least 80% across the region. The warm air associated with the wave will bring snow levels 6000ft by Wednesday morning. Ensembles are indicating another Cascade Pass snow event with around 4 to 6 inches expected through Wednesday. Precip amounts range from 0.2-0.4 of an inch for the higher terrain and 0.1-0.3 of an inch for the lower terrain. Areas of the Cascades see amounts around 0.6-0.8 of an inch. Winds will be breezy across the Central Basin with gusts into the low 20s mph. Highs will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. Thursday through Saturday: For Thursday morning, the region will again have another break before the Low pushes another wave across the region. Ensembles are beginning to diverge on the timing and moisture associated with it. Highest precip amounts are expected to be along the Cascades due to the east to west trajectory of the wave. The rain shadow effect lowers the confidence on precip amounts for the rest of the region. For now, the Cascades will again have high precip amounts up to an inch. With lower snow levels, the Northern Cascades and Washington Pass could see near a foot of snow through through Saturday. Precip amounts for the rest of the are around 0.1-0.3 of an inch. Winds will be gusty across the Basin on Friday into Saturday with gusts into the low 30s mph. Highs will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: An incoming system will bring increased clouds and precip chances across the region. High clouds will begin to increase overnight. Very light precipitation in the form of flurries or sprinkles may fall in the Cascades and northern mountains by Monday morning, but not expected to bring much in the of impacts to airports as any precipitation won`t moisten the boundary layer up much. Short term ensembles are showing potential low level cloud development across the Inland Northwest for early Monday morning. By the afternoon, MVFR ceilings expected across the region with showers occurring at the TAF sites. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through tonight. There`s a 40-60% chance for stratus producing MVFR ceilings between 1,000-3,000 ft agl. between 16-20Z Monday morning for all TAF sites excluding LWS. Low confidence on rain showers lowering visibilities to MVFR at TAF sites. /JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 34 46 36 47 38 51 / 0 50 80 60 70 90 Coeur d`Alene 33 45 36 46 38 50 / 10 60 80 70 70 90 Pullman 33 45 37 50 40 53 / 0 60 90 70 70 80 Lewiston 36 50 43 58 46 60 / 0 50 90 50 50 70 Colville 25 46 27 45 28 45 / 0 40 60 50 70 100 Sandpoint 30 43 32 43 34 46 / 10 70 80 70 80 90 Kellogg 34 44 39 46 40 50 / 10 80 90 90 80 90 Moses Lake 36 49 36 50 40 53 / 0 20 70 40 80 90 Wenatchee 38 46 39 47 41 48 / 10 40 70 40 90 90 Omak 33 47 34 48 37 49 / 0 30 40 30 70 100 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

861 FXUS66 KPDT 022240 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 240 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion .DISCUSSION... KEY POINTS 1. Snowfall potential for the Washington Cascades Monday through Monday night 2. Generally wet, active weather pattern through the week 3. Breezy to windy Tuesday night through Friday Satellite imagery shows the genesis of our next weather system, slated to arrive Monday morning, developing in the Pacific Ocean as a shortwave interacts with a pre-existing baroclinic zone in the vicinity of 36N, 140W. While ensemble NWP guidance is still displaying a range of solutions with regard to the depth (995-1005 hPa) and track of the surface low that is anticipated to develop through the day, confidence in precipitation for the forecast area Monday through Monday night is high (60-95 percent) for the Washington side of our CWA and medium (30-60 percent) for the Oregon side. Of particular interest is potential snowfall for the Washington Cascades and their east slopes above 2500 feet on Monday. Precipitation, and also snowfall, will be modulated by the track of the surface low, which ensemble solutions take up the Oregon coast and then inland across either western Oregon or western Washington Monday through Monday night. Forecast soundings from 12Z CAMs show low-level southeasterly to easterly upslope flow beneath a favorable coupling of the divergent jet entrance at 250-hPa and divergent jet exit at 700 hPa. In tandem with an injection of modest moisture -- IVT of approximately 250-500 kg/m*s -- this should facilitate a good setup for precipitation along the Washington Cascades and their eastern slopes. Have held off on any winter weather highlights for the Cascades for a couple reasons. Forecast temperatures are marginal (31-34 degrees minimum from 12Z HREF soundings, and warmer in the NBM) for accumulation on paved surfaces during the day. Moreover, NBM probabilities of 24-hr snowfall exceeding advisory levels (5 inches for the lower slopes and 6 inches for the upper slopes) are low-medium (20-40 percent) for mountain passes (White, Snoqualmie, and Blewett) from 12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday. That said, snow levels could (10 percent chance per NBM guidance) drop as low as 2500 feet should the right scenario pan out; namely, a persistent band of moderate to heavy precipitation with rate-driven cooling of low-level and surface temperatures. Snow levels are anticipated to rise above pass level from south to north Monday night through Tuesday as low-level flow turns southwesterly and warmer air is advected into the region. Tuesday night through Wednesday, ensemble guidance is in good, though not excellent, agreement that a negatively tilted trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, with multiple shortwave impulses wrapping around its base and traversing the forecast area. Another round of moisture will be transported inland with this system, resulting in periods of likely (55 percent or higher) PoPs area-wide. Predominantly southwesterly flow aloft during the period will likely (75 percent confidence) preclude snow levels dropping low enough to warrant any winter weather headlines. Aside from precipitation, tangible weather will be dominated by breezy to windy southeasterly winds Tuesday night through Wednesday morning across the Blue Mountains region, then more widespread southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Confidence is currently 60 percent in near-advisory or advisory- level wind gusts (45 mph or greater) along the slopes of the northern Blue Mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with confidence ranging from 30-50 percent in advisory-level gusts elsewhere across central and eastern Oregon each day Wednesday through Friday. .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. CIGs of bkn-ovc will increase this evening and overnight as a weather system approaches the region. CIGs will lower to around 10kft by tomorrow morning, with precipitation mainly confined to the Cascade crest. Light rain will arrive to sites YKM/DLS by the afternoon, with light rain continuing into the early evening. Best chances of light rain won`t be until at or after 00Z at all other sites. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 34 47 37 56 / 0 50 90 40 ALW 37 47 40 55 / 0 60 90 50 PSC 36 50 37 53 / 0 40 80 30 YKM 36 49 36 50 / 0 50 80 50 HRI 36 48 38 55 / 0 50 80 30 ELN 31 46 33 47 / 10 50 80 50 RDM 27 56 36 59 / 0 40 70 30 LGD 29 54 40 59 / 0 50 90 50 GCD 33 61 44 60 / 0 30 80 40 DLS 40 51 42 55 / 0 70 90 60 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...82

520 FXUS65 KREV 022109 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 109 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds return Monday and Tuesday afternoons with light showers possible from NE California into far NW Nevada. * Strong winds are increasingly probable on Wednesday with potential impacts to travel and recreation. * Rain and high elevation snow is expected Wednesday into Thursday with lingering showers Friday. Drier weather returns next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Can`t ask for better weather to round out the weekend as today`s highs reach the mid 60s to mid 70s beneath mostly sunny skies. Enjoy it while it lasts because the weather becomes more unsettled this week as a series of low pressure areas move through the northwestern states. The first low is rather weak and quick-moving, but will provide breezy afternoon winds and minor cooling on Monday and Tuesday as it passes by. Winds aren`t expected to be unusually strong, but gusts of 25-35 mph may result in some bumpy flights and choppy lake waters. Light showers are also possible across NE California into N Washoe County Monday night into Tuesday morning, but little to no accumulation is expected. Stronger low pressure pivots through the region on Wednesday, and will bring periods of strong winds, wetting rain, and high elevation snowfall. Our main concern with this storm will be strong winds and attendant impacts to travel and recreation on Wednesday. A belt of robust 40-60 kt flow aloft will overspread the region, supporting a 40-80% chance of wind gusts reaching or exceeding 45 mph regionwide. Damaging wind gusts (58 mph or greater) are certainly attainable (10- 40% odds) given the magnitude of the low-level jet. Needless to say, its a good bet that we`ll see wind impacts -- possibly significant -- to travel and recreation on Wednesday. The trajectory of Wednesday`s storm will keep the region in the warm air regime, translating to higher snow levels throughout the storm`s duration. Thus, notable snowfall will be confined to elevations above 8000` where odds of 6" or more of total snowfall reaches up to 90%. While this storm isn`t expected to be a prolific snow producer, there may be some travel disruptions through Carson, Ebbetts, Tioga, and Sonora passes. Elsewhere, wetting rain is likely along and west of US-395 with areas to the east staying mostly dry. Rain and snow mostly tapers off Thursday and Friday, although some lingering showers are possible near the Oregon border and NE CA. High pressure rebuilds across the western states, returning warm and mostly dry weather for next weekend. -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions and light winds persist today. Winds aloft and at the surface increase Monday (SW gusts of 20-30 kts), which may induce some minor LLWS and mountain wave turbulence impacts. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

579 FXUS66 KSTO 022055 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1255 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather prevails through Monday - Active weather returns for the middle of this week with showers, gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, high elevation snow showers and cooler temperatures. - Heaviest precipitation is expected north of I-80 .DISCUSSION... Today...Dry and warm weather continue across interior NorCal this afternoon, along with light, diurnal and terrain driven winds continuing. Monday - Tuesday... Dry and warm weather continues to prevail through the day Monday. Light winds are generally expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s across the Valley, foothills and mountains of interior NorCal. A relatively weak system will begin bring precipitation into Shasta County by Monday evening, with chances spreading into areas north of I-80 overnight. Wednesday - Friday...A deep trough moves in Wednesday bringing widespread rain across the region, with the best potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain north of I-80. Models continue to focus the greatest precipitation amounts over Shasta County, the Northeast Foothills, the northern Sierra, the southern Cascades, and the Coastal Range receiving the highest rain amounts. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to trend highest over the mountains of Shasta County. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. This system is relatively warm so will have higher snow levels, generally above 7500 feet with this system. As a result the bulk of snowfall will be at higher elevations, such as at Lassen National Park and the higher peaks of the Sierra and southern Cascades, where several inches of wet snow are possible. Minor impacts include wet/slick roads in the mountains Wednesday night as snow levels briefly fall to 7000 feet. Gusty southerly winds are expected over the Sacramento Valley, the Delta, the Sierra and the southern Cascades through the day Wednesday, with gusts to around 45 mph. Lingering scattered showers mainly north of I-80 continue through Thursday, with another system focused over the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley on Friday bringing additional chances of showers. Cooler temperatures are also expected mid to late week. As always remember to check your local weather forecast at weather.gov for updates. .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Light, variable surface winds below 12 knots. Slight chance of shower after 12z monday mainly for areas in northern Sacramento Valley. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

988 FXUS65 KMSO 021932 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1232 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: -Active weather pattern this coming week. Breezy west winds will continue across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and then begin to diminish after sunset. These winds will create choppy conditions on area lakes, especially Flathead lake. The lake wind advisory for Flathead has been extended until 6 pm MST today. A subtle ridge of high pressure slides over the region tonight into Monday morning causing a reduction in shower activity over the Northern Rockies. Then by Monday afternoon a plume of moisture will move into northwest Montana bringing some light precipitation to the area. This band of moisture shifts southward Monday night impacting the remainder of the Northern Rockies. Snow levels are anticipated to be relatively high (around 5000ft) for this time of year, so any accumulating snow will be mainly limited to the higher terrain. Mountain passes could receive a few inches of new snow, but impacts will be fairly limited. Another weak ridge develops over the region late Tuesday into Wednesday morning causing a reduction in precipitation. Then a plume of moisture makes its way into the Northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday causing widespread precipitation with snow levels being around 6000 ft this time. This rinse and repeat pattern appears Friday into Saturday with break in precipitation followed by more widespread showers. Temperatures throughout the week appear to be running around 5 to 10 degrees above after for this time of year. && .AVIATION...Gusty west winds will continue across all terminals this afternoon, then see a decrease after sunset this evening. Bands of showers have developed across portions of west central Montana this afternoon. These showers will be within the vicinity of KMSO and KHRF this afternoon. The shower activity is also expected to diminish after sunset this evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Flathead/Mission Valleys. ID...None. && $$

429 FXUS65 KBOI 030355 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 855 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025 .DISCUSSION...The upper level flow aloft will transition to southwest tonight into Monday morning, bringing warmer temperatures on Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny skies expected on Monday, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures warm around 3-5 degrees from Sunday. A warm front will lift north over the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing scattered to numerous showers through Tuesday evening. The front lifts northward on Wednesday with breezy southwest- southeast winds and mild temperatures. Then a cold front moves through the area on Wednesday evening. No updates. && .AVIATION...VFR. Showers with mountain obscuration developing Mon evening. Surface winds: variable 10kt becoming SW- SE 5-15kt Mon afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 25-35kt increasing to SW 35-45kt Mon evening. KBOI...VFR. E-SE 5-10kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...A mice evening with mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. Colder temperatures tonight will see lower valleys fall into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures will warm back into the 60s in the lower valleys on Monday as moist southwesterly flow begins to develop of the region. This will allow for a weak system to move across the Pacific Northwest late Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another round of precipitation. The highest chance (60 to 80 percent) will be across Baker County and the mountains of central Idaho. Precipitable water (PW) vales briefly approach the 75th percentile Tuesday morning, favorable for mountain rainfall amounts between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, with locally up to 1 inch. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than 0.10 inch across the lower elevations, especially from Boise east through the Western Magic Valley. Snow levels remain high, ranging from 7000 to 7500 feet MSL across the north to 8500 to 9000 feet MSL near the Nevada border, resulting in mostly rain across the mountains. Precipitation will diminish Tuesday night as the warm front pushes northward, bringing stronger southwesterly winds and drier air aloft. This will lead to milder temperatures overnight, with lows in the upper 40s across the lower valley. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper-level trough off in the Gulf of Alaska will be the predominant weather maker in the period. Embedded upper-level shortwave troughs and Pacific moisture will move through the area in waves (the main two waves being Wednesday late afternoon and overnight Thursday into Friday), providing precipitation chances through the work week. Wednesday afternoon will see the first cold front of the period, with PoPs increasing to 60-90% for higher elevations and 20-50% for lower elevations Strong mid-level winds accompanying the trough will be responsible for valley shadowing effects, limiting precip in many valley locations while favoring upslope terrain such as the Central Idaho/Boise Mountains. Snow levels will begin around 7500-8500 feet MSL and lower to 6000-7000 feet MSL. Wind gusts will be strong in SE OR and Owyhee county Wednesday following the front, with gusts up to 40 mph at times. Overnight Thursday into Friday, the second cold front will move through, bringing similar PoPs and snow levels to the previous. Wind gusts will be high in similar locations again, however not as high (30 mph max). Total QPF and snow amounts have been fluctuating with this system, with trends from models decreasing over the past few simulations. Temperatures will decrease to more seasonable values after Wednesday. Drier conditions will develop Saturday as a brief, high amplitude ridge follows, though temperatures will be slow to rebound until Sunday once southwest flow develops aloft again. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....CH

539 FXUS65 KLKN 022119 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 119 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 * High pressure will bring quiet and dry fall-like weather into early next week * A weak weather system is expected to impact Northern Nevada during the mid-week portion of the forecast, resulting in breezy to windy conditions and light precipitation && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly sunny this afternoon with temperatures well above normal. This pattern will continue into the mid-week period. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 20s and 30s. The ridge axis is forecast to shift east on Wednesday. An upper low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest and western United States. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop Wednesday with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected. Temperatures will cool slightly but will remain in the 60s for the most part. Chances for precipitation will increase with most locales seeing light rain showers (fifteen to sixty percent chance) with the highest chances for seeing measurable rainfall in the north. General forecast amounts of rainfall are expected to be a trace to a tenth of an inch in the valleys with northern Elko and northern Humboldt counties seeing the highest amounts. Look for light, isolated showers during the overnight with lows in the 30s. A mainly west to east flow will develop Thursday. Cooler air will filter in with high temperatures reaching the 50s. Mainly isolated showers are expected in the north with little to no accumulation. Winds will continue to be breezy in the afternoon in the north with gusts to 25 mph. The threat for light, isolated showers will continue across the north with lows in the 20s and 30s. Models are showing upper level ridging across the forecast area for Friday through the weekend. This will bring dry conditions and highs in the 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues in a dry and fair weather forecast through the next few days. Increasing confidence of more active weather beginning in the mid-week. No changes to NBM grids at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will be breezy tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 25KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86