522 FXUS66 KSEW 151056 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 356 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front continues to shift eastward today, with steady snow coming to an end in the Cascades. However, expect widespread showers Wednesday across the area in the cool, unstable post- frontal air mass. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Drier but cool conditions then develop later this week until the next frontal system approaches the region offshore this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front passed through western Washington yesterday evening/this morning. This is being driven by an upper level low/trough that will dig southward today across the state. The radar remains active this morning with precipitation continuing in the lowlands and Cascades this morning. A convergence zone is keeping showers going between Seattle and Everett. Snow has been falling at all of the Cascade passes, and the surface temperatures up there have been just below freezing. The winter storm warning will continue through 11 PM this evening, with a couple additional rounds of snow expected through the day today. A couple of the snow-bands later may be able to produce heavier snow rates. For the remainder of the area today, the cold air aloft with the trough sinking over will create an unstable airmass for a chance of convection today. SPC has the coastal areas in a general risk of thunder today, although the thunder risk will encompass the entire coverage area today. The risk is capped at 30% (with the coastline and interior/Puget Sound areas having the best chance of seeing thunder). These showers/thunderstorms are expected to be scattered in nature, with any breaks of sun during the morning able to add to the 200-300 J/kg of CAPE in place. The window for thunder will be from late morning through early evening. The main concerns are lightning, and downpours containing heavy rain and graupel/small hail. No organized severe weather is expected. Highs today remain cool - upper 40s to low 50s in the lowlands, and 30s/40s in the mountains. Winds will remain light out of the west 5-10 mph. The trough moves out going into Thursday. North flow behind the trough will bring in cooler Canadian air into the region. Conditions will be dry going into Thursday/Friday. Main concern will be the potential for any fog/frost/freeze conditions next couple mornings to finish the week. Mitigating factors will be the potential for some cloud coverage overnight, boundary layer conditions and the wet grounds from recent rains may favor some patchy fog development in spots. Light to calm winds and any clearing that does take place will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s and upper 20s Thursday and Friday morning. Probabilities for a hard freeze are greatest in the Chehalis Valley/South Interior areas, with remaining lowland areas more likely to see frost at this point. If frost/freeze conditions do form, it will be important to protect any plants/crops outside susceptible to the cold conditions. HPR && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble guidance continues to bring the next low pressure system south from the Gulf of Alaska offshore past the region this weekend. There remains a significant spread in the eastward extent of the associated front across the region, which would impact the potential for additional rainfall this weekend. While there remains some mention across most of the area, the chances remain highest across the Olympic Peninsula and coastline. Regardless, this looks to be a weaker system than the currently passing front and a more seasonable air mass with lowland temperatures returning to the 60s and snow levels returning back above the Cascade passes. 12 && .AVIATION... A cold front moved through the terminals this morning, with a post- front convergence zone producing additional showers in Puget Sound. The showers were rotating around an anti-cyclonic meso-low, with some outflow turning the winds northeasterly at KSEA and KBFI this morning. The convergence zone is expected to last through 16-18Z, with winds turning back to the southwest 4-8 kt. Ceilings this morning have ranged between MVFR/VFR, but will trend towards VFR through the day. A trough will dig southward today, with north flow increasing late tonight/Thursday aloft. Breaks in the clouds with sun today will help destabilize the atmosphere for convection during the day. There is a 20-30% chance of thunder in the terminals this afternoon (most likely window is from 20Z-00Z this afternoon denoted with PROB30). Cloud tops on any storms are likely to remain under 20,000 ft. Coverage will be scattered in nature. Main concerns are lightning, heavy downpours that may contain graupel/small hail, and gusty/variable outflow winds. Conditions will dry going into Thursday with an increased likelihood of MVFR ceilings Thursday morning. Winds become light out of the northwest tonight/Thursday less than 5 kt. KSEA...Vicinity showers with a convergence zone to continue through late this morning. Brief NE winds with this feature will switch to the SW 4-8 kt around 16-18Z (few gusts up to 20 kt before the switch). MVFR ceilings improving to VFR this morning, with MVFR likely Thursday morning. Showers to continue through the day and a 30% chance of thunder (most likely window is from 21Z-00Z). Drier conditions into Thursday morning. Lightning, graupel/downpours, and variable breezy winds are possible with storms in/near the terminal. Winds to become light under 5 kt later this evening (brief variable period possible from 22Z-02Z). HPR && .MARINE... Winds have peaked over the waters this morning in the wake of the passing cold front. Widespread showers can be expected through the day with a few stronger ones potentially bringing lightning and stronger wind gusts. Meanwhile, seas remain 7 to 12 ft over the coastal waters as they increase today. Even if short of 10 ft, conditions will be rather steep with a dominant period around 8 seconds over the coastal waters. Conditions begin to subside later in the week with weak high pressure building over the waters Thursday through Saturday. The next front will approach the waters over the weekend bringing another round of gusty winds and building seas over the waters into the weekend. 12 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

398 FXUS66 KPQR 151825 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1125 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Updated hazards .UPDATE...Observations show the freezing level remains around 2500 ft. Mixed rain/snow showers are expected to continue through today down to 1500 ft elevation, but these showers are unlikely to produce accumulating snow. && .SYNOPSIS... The back edge of a cold frontal boundary which has spread ample precipitatiion and mountain snowfall across the Pacific Northwest quickly progresses through the region this morning followed by a showery airmass and a 15-30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through tonight. Concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and possible frost/freeze conditions to round out the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week although forecast confidence Sunday onward is low. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night... Now through Friday Night... Now through Thursday Night...Early this morning satellite and radar observations show our latest weather disturbance in the form of a cold-frontal boundary and the wide band of stratiform precipitation dropping NW to SE across western Oregon. Snow-levels are expected to quickly bottom out around 1500-2000ft in the cold airmass behind the frontal boundary by late morning with snowfall continuing to be the primary impact with this disturbance focused over the Cascades. We`re still watching for a potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling artificially lowering snow levels closer to ~1000ft around sunrise this morning, particularly in coast range and southwest Washington southward through portions of Clackamas County. However, as far as travel is concerned, it`ll be challenging to get accumulation on roadways at this elevation should a period of wet snow or a rain/snow mix occur. The chances for a light slush-up gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000-2500ft+. The heavier precipitation early to mid morning helping to drive these lower snow levels will also help to boost snowfall rates at pass level, likely reaching 1-1.5+ in/hr until the frost passes. If you plan to traverse across the mountain passes today, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. Once we get into the midday and afternoon hours we`ll have transition to a more convective and showery post frontal environment thanks to the core of a upper level low moving overhead. Most models still show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200 to 500 j/kg this afternoon leading to a 15-30% chance for thunderstorm development across the CWA. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM today when heating between shower bands is maximized. Convective Allowing Model (CAM) soundings are showing a skinny CAPE profile and along with cooler temperatures aloft, this does support tiny hail/graupel development with any thunderstorms that develop and given that when spring time thunderstorms develop within our CWA, they have a tendency to produce a lot of tiny pea size hail. Also be on the lookout for infrequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain associated with any activity. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. At this point the axis of the upper-level low pulls to our east with increasing heights on northerly flow aloft by sunrise Thursday morning helping to decrease shower activity. The lingering cooler temperatures aloft and partial clearing by sunrise should allow overnight lows to drop below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley, and potentially in the Cascade foothills mainly around and south of OR-22. Give the moderate to high confidence in these low temperatures panning out, have issued frost advisories for much of the region including a Freeze Watch for the Upper Hood River Valley and a couple of the aforementioned Oregon Cascade foothill zones. A few showers likely lingering through Thursday, increasing in the afternoon due to daytime heating, however, the bulk of the activity will be pinned to terrain features in the Cascades and coast range. Similar frost/freeze conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning and additional highlights may be needed for this period. Even though temperatures warm slightly aloft Thursday night compared to Wednesday night/Thursday morning, weak pressure gradients combined with a building ridge of high pressure aloft and better clearing may prove to be a better set-up for frost development. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Looking towards the weekend confidence is high among both deterministic and ensemble guidance in a ridge of high pressure continuing to build aloft allowing temperatures to gradually warm and reduce frost concerns. However the pattern remains rather progressive as models show the ridge quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. WPC Cluster Guidance does favor this low dropping almost straight southward across the eastern Pacific favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast. How far this low holds off the coast will heavily modulate conditions locally. Should it stay more to our west, warmer conditions and broad southerly flow would be favored, That said, any moisture riding south to north within this flow pattern could spell the return of convection. Thus forecast confidence Sunday onward into the middle of next week is low. -99/42 && .AVIATION...Post frontal showers are expected to persist through the day with increasing chances for convection in the afternoon after 20Z Wed. Highest probabilities lie along the Cascade foothills and to the north with around a 25-35% chance inland within the Willamette Valley. Thunder is challenging here as often it may be one storm that pops up, while other times it can be a wide swath. In this case, because the flow is northwesterly (not as favorable) behind the previous system, would trend towards a more isolated thunderstorm scenario. Overnight, showers will slowly dissipate and clear. Dropping temperatures mean that there is a slight chance for frost formation over exposed surfaces. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Combination of MVFR and VFR conditions with showers. Around a 30% chance of thunderstorms between 20Z Wed through 06Z Thu. Thunderstorms will trend towards an isolated scenario. Frost potential overnight if skies remain clear. -27 && .MARINE... A cold frontal boundary is quickly progressing across the coastal waters early this morning with winds switching northwesterly in its wake. Expect gusts between 20-30 knots the remainder of the day as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the region. This feature will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters into the evening hours. Seas are expected to persist at around around 9 to 10 ft, building slightly to around 10 to 12 ft tonight as a fresh northwest swell moves through the waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in place through Thursday morning for both the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar. High pressure then builds over the waters Thursday into the weekend as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. It appears there`s a 40-60% chance for north winds to gust above 21 knots into Small Craft Criteria on Saturday. Looking ahead there is potential for another weather system to impact the waters later this weekend, possibly increasing winds and seas. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ104>110- 114>118-123>125. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ121. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ121-124-125. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ203>205- 208. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

321 FXUS66 KMFR 151953 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1253 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...The front is passing through the area this afternoon, with rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. Steady rain will taper off as the front passes to the south and east later today, with showers continuing overnight, and potentially some isolated showers persisting into Thursday morning along the coast and the northern Cascades. The cold air mass behind the front looks to bring cool overnight lows from tonight into Thursday morning and again from Thursday night into Friday morning. A Frost Advisory will be in place for the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys for tonight into Thursday, as lingering cloud cover looks to keep temperatures just above freezing concerns. Localized freezing conditions may be possible in some areas, notably in the southern Illinois Valley. A Freeze Watch covers the Thursday night-Friday morning timeframe, as there`s some question how cold that night will get. A number of hazard products are in place to further communicate the impacts of this active period. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and above 4000 feet remains in place through Thursday morning. A Wind Advisory for most of Lake County as well as the Warner Mountains and areas north of Alturas in Modoc County highlights dangerous travel conditions in these areas. An upper ridge will bring drier conditions and warmer daytime highs on Friday and Saturday. Long-term guidance shows a low pressure system approaching from the northwest. Details for this system remain coarse, with some variations between the ECMWF and GFS outcomes. This system may bring a southerly flow pattern that tends to focus precipitation at Curry County as well as parts of western Siskiyou County, per ECMWF imagery. Or it might bounce off a ridge and linger over the Pacific before moving inland on Monday, per GFS imagery. Initial snow levels are in the 5000-7000 foot range, which would limit winter impacts. Showers may continue beyond Monday, depending on how this system behaves. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front continues to pass through the region bringing rainfall, breezy winds, and ceilings just above MVFR. This will likely continue through early this afternoon, but we are expecting showers to become more isolated this afternoon with skies clearing behind the front. The big questions is how much clearing will occur tonight. At this time, we have omitted any visibility restrictions and low clouds overnight, and this may need further evaluation for subsequent TAFs. That said, at this time KRBG has the relatively highest probability for visibility restrictions at about 25% overnight. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, April 15, 2026...A passing front will continue to bring breezy winds and steep seas across all waters through tomorrow afternoon. Isolated showers are possible tonight through tomorrow morning, and there could be an embedded thunderstorm tonight (20%-25%) around and north/northwest of Cape Blanco. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible north of Cape Blanco tonight. Conditions improve late Thursday afternoon; however, a weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds to the waters south of Cape Blanco late Thursday into Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ024-026. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for ORZ024. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080. Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ080. Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

849 FXUS66 KEKA 150705 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1205 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Rain through Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible late weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Rain is making its way southward along the Pacific Coast. A rainy morning is expected for the North Coast with a period of moderate rainfall around midday as a frontal boundary passes overhead. Rain totals are expected to be around 1.00" for Del Norte Co. and slightly less for Humboldt Co. Lighter precipitation is forecasted for Trinity and Northern Mendocino Co. Trace amounts of rain (<0.10") expected for Lake and southern Mendocino Co. Strong southerly winds will develop along the North Coast before this frontal boundary passing. After this frontal boundary in Lake Co., while there might not be much in terms of rainfall, strong winds are forecasted to develop, especially for the higher terrain. This cold front will advect much colder air over the region. Snow levels drop in response down to ~1,500ft for Trinity Co. and ~2,00ft for Humboldt Co. This drop is not expected to create much snow as much of the precipitation will be over by this time. What this colder air will do is increase the likelihood for frost/freeze conditions for the entire area on Thursday and Friday. NBM data shows the interior valleys are forecasted to get colder than 30F Thursday and Friday mornings. As growing season begins, it is recommended to cover sensitive plants and take other precautions to protect agricultural property these mornings. The GFS and ECMWF are both signaling for another frontal storm arriving this weekend. The GFS ensemble shows light rain Sunday with heavier rain possible on Monday. The EPS shows almost the same, with rainbeginning on Saturday evening. What these models also show is more widespread rainfall over the area with precipitation accumulations up to0.50" in Lake and southern Mendocino counties. DS && .AVIATION...A cold front will swoop across the area on Wednesday bringing MVFR and occasional IFR cigs and vsby`s in light to moderate rain. Initially southerly and southeasterly winds in advance of the front will maintain mostly MVFR conditions. Conditions will initially deteriorate at KCEC with reduced vsby in rain and S-SW gusts to around 30 kt. IFR conditions will then spread southward to KACV by 16Z with about a 30% chance of vsby from 1 to 2SM and IFR cigs in light to moderate rain. A push of moist and gusty NW winds behind the front will keep the threat for IFR conditions and light rain going into the afternoon hours. For UKI, generally VFR is expected with bountiful cloud cover and gusty afternoon and evening N-NW winds. Surface wind decouples late in the evening on Wed and potential for low level wind shear will increase as robust N-NE wind flow develops 1000-2500 AGL. && .MARINE...A vigorous cold frontal boundary will move across the coastal waters on Wed. Southerly and southwest winds with gusts to 25-30 kt will develop early in the morning and then rapidly shift around to N and NW behind the front in the late morning and early afternoon across the northern waters. Widespread seas building to 6 feet or higher are limited on Wed. There are indications from the NWPS model of localized pockets of steep waves from 6 to 8 feet mostly north of Trinidad by early afternoon for the inner and outer waters. Therefore an advisory has been issued even with limited areal coverage of steep wave over 6 ft. An advisory based on wind gusts from 25 to 30 kt appears more solid, but errors in the wind gust forecast could be as much 10 kt. Just about all the mesoscale models have gusts over 21 kt over a sufficiently large enough area to warrant an advisory for small craft. Northerly winds strengthen and steep wave build Wed evening and overnight, especially south of Cape Mendo. Thus, an advisory has been posted for the inner waters south of Cape Mendo. Gale force winds will be possible (30% chance) as early as Wed evening. Greater coverage and longer duration of gale gusts holds off til Thu afternoon and evening - per the HREF. Thus a gale watch has been hoisted for the southern waters. Seas will build to max heights Thu afternoon thru Thu night. Steep waves are projected to reach 11-13 feet for the southern waters and 9-11 feet in the northern waters. Seas may remain steep and elevated on Fri, however a downward trend will commence and continue into Sat. Another front will approach over the weekend and could bring another bout of gusty winds. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

541 FXUS66 KMTR 151821 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1121 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue today and Thursday before temperatures warm Friday into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain beginning Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak fetch of onshore flow at the surface is struggling to maintain patches of low stratus along the SF Peninsula and the Salinas Valley late tonight. Progressive ridging aloft has resulted in very dry air in the mid/upper levels, that will persist into the early afternoon. A sharpening trough to our north will reach the North Bay tonight behind the exiting ridge, with a weak associated moisture gradient out ahead. However, increasing low and mid-level onshore flow will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover this afternoon. Breezy west winds out ahead of the dry surface boundary will eventually become northerly overnight as the upper trough pivots east and south. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, maybe a few degrees warmer inland where less cloud cover is expected. Temperatures tonight will still be on the cool side across the North Bay and higher elevations across the East Bay Hills with weak cool advection behind the dry surface boundary late tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) Gusty offshore flow will gradually spread south across our area after sunrise Thursday. The strongest winds will be at higher elevations, especially in the North Bay and East Bay Hills, but not expected to exceed 40mph. Temperatures on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, right around normal in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday will be chilly once again with cooler air aloft lingering behind the exiting trough and surface wind fields easing simultaneously under clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling. Thursday night should be an excellent night for star gazing. Progressive, yet high amplitude ridging bumps temperatures up Friday and Saturday, before the next trough arrives from the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Consensus diverged in deterministic guidance from this time last night, thus confidence in timing, location and intensity of rainfall is still low. However, it still looks most of our area will see at least some light rain Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 AM clouds/fog have given way to mostly VFR for 18Z tafs. Some coastal strato-cu will occasionally impacts HAF and MRY. A weak boundary will sweep through this evening/early tonight bring a return of brief MVFR CIGS from approx 03Z-08Z depending on terminal. Behind the boundary offshore flow and drier air rush in kicking LL moisture out with VFR returning. Moderate wind speeds are expected at all TAF sites mentioned above throughout the day and night with some experiencing strong gusts. Winds are expected to decrease slightly by tomorrow morning before increasing again. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with a few CU hugging the hills to the west. Probabilistic guidance brings frontal CIGS to the San Bruno gap close to 03Z and then over the terminal by 05-06Z. Once the boundary goes through drier air erodes MVFR cigs by 09-10Z SFO Bridge Approach...CIGS arrival and clear tonight will be 30-60 min after terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals... Around 03-04z tonight, lower CIGs will make their way through MRY, and SNS resulting in MVFR conditions. These low clouds will eventually dissipate out by early to mid- morning tomorrow and conditions will shift back to VFR, except at MRY where they will stick around through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 353 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 Fresh northwest breezes and moderate seas will continue over the coastal waters through today. A mostly dry cold front will push through tonight followed by gusty northwesterly winds Thursday. These winds will build rough seas of 10-12 feet across the exposed coastal waters. Winds will ease back to moderate northwest breezes Friday through Saturday, allowing seas to gradually subside. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM/AN MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

462 FXUS66 KOTX 151751 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1051 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds today. - Morning lows near to below freezing through Friday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this morning will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Snowy travel is expected over the mountain passes this morning. Overnight lows will be cold with near to below freezing temperatures. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today-tonight: A cold core upper-level low will wobble into the region delivering windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and periods of rain/snow. A majority of the rain will fall along the leading cold front which has recently crossed over the Olympics and will be sliding through INW overnight into early Wednesday morning. Once the front moves through, the threat for steady precipitation will rapidly end with drier post frontal air moving in. Precipitable water values start off nearly 150% of normal and lower to 50% of normal. Snow levels will also be falling rapidly with snow mixing with rain at times on the back edge of the steadier precipitation though there is little confidence for any snow accumulations in the lowlands. In the mountains, it will be a different story. Snow is already falling over the mountain passes with accumulations noted on Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes. Cams indicate snow also falling on Sherman and Lookout Passes. Winter weather advisories and storm warnings are in place through Wednesday morning to address these concerns for winter travel conditions. Lapse rates will steepen behind the cold front with embedded impulses bringing a renewed threat for showers Wednesday afternoon into the evening. These will likely fall as snow and/or graupel. With the low-levels drying out, cloud basis will be high with minimal accumulations. Would not rule out a dusting to few tenths in the mountains. Today will be windy with persistent westerly winds of 10-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph. Local gusts to 40 mph are expected on the higher ridgetops and in our wind prone areas of the Waterville Plateau and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Skies will clear overnight for much of Central and northern WA and partially for North Idaho. The cooler and drier air mass will result in chilly overnight lows with many areas reaching freezing or colder. Our low elevation zones in the Western Columbia Basin and Wenatchee Area have reached their climatological growing season and have freeze watches in place. Latest forecast numbers range from 30 to 34F with the biggest uncertainty coming from a light steady wind of 5-11 mph overnight. Will this be enough to keep temperatures from reaching the freezing mark? Thinking it will vary based on location with some areas sheltered from the wind dipping near 29-30F and others remaining closer to 34F. Consequently, freeze warnings have been issued for Thursday morning. Thursday-Friday: A shortwave ridge of high pressure builds over the coast on Thursday then slides inland on Friday. Overall, weather impacts Thursday and Friday will be low. Scattered light snow showers pinwheeling around the backside of the departing low will pass through North Idaho on Thursday with a 30% chance for an additional inch at Lookout Pass. Much of Central and Eastern WA will be sunny and dry but with continued breeziness as west to northwest winds continue to be drawn into the departing low. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will be common around Wenatchee, Entiat, Waterville, Ephrata, Moses Lake, Pullman, and Pomeroy. Temperatures will once again fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday night into Friday morning with potential for freeze warnings to be extended for an additional day. High temperatures will only warm into the 50s to lower 60s, roughly 5-8 degrees below 30-year averages. Saturday-Tuesday: There is good agreement of another low pressure system dropping out the Gulf of AK and into the Western US. There is moderate to high confidence for mild and dry conditions on Saturday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts Sunday and continues into early next with uncertainty with the track of the low into the Western US. It is close to a 50/50 split in the ensembles for the low to dive well south of the INW leaving it mild and dry while the other 50 have the low in closer proximity with rain and mountain snow showers. NBM is carrying 20-25% precipitation chances given the ensemble members that support the showery regime. This will not be as cold as the current system resulting in higher snow levels and mostly rain for the lowlands if any at all. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Region is the on the backside of the exiting front. Trailing showers and MVFR conditions are currently impacting KGEG- KSFF- KCOE- KPUW- KLWS. Drier air is filtering into the region bringing VFR conditions to KEAT-KMWH. Additional showers will develop from high based clouds in the afternoon falling as mix of rain/snow but little to no probabilities for conditions to lower below VFR. The main issue in the post frontal air mass will be gusty winds of 20-30kts. Overnight stratus will develop over Eastern WA and North ID possibly bringing another round of MVFR ceilings and increased precip chances for Thursday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence for the post frontal rain/snow showers this afternoon given the higher cloud bases and dry air intrusion. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 50 29 51 30 54 32 / 90 20 30 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 29 47 29 52 30 / 100 30 50 10 0 0 Pullman 44 28 45 29 51 32 / 100 30 40 10 0 0 Lewiston 51 33 50 34 56 33 / 100 30 30 0 0 0 Colville 52 27 53 26 57 28 / 70 50 30 0 0 0 Sandpoint 46 29 45 28 50 29 / 100 60 70 20 20 0 Kellogg 43 27 41 28 47 29 / 100 50 80 30 30 0 Moses Lake 55 28 58 31 61 34 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 51 32 55 35 59 40 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 31 58 32 61 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Wenatchee Area. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$

624 FXUS66 KPDT 152033 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 133 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows a closed upper low centered over southwest British Columbia early this afternoon. Meanwhile, a robust cold front is trekking across eastern Oregon and far southeast Washington. In the wake of the front, skies have become clear to partly cloudy across much of the Columbia Basin and vicinity, with upslope convective showers noted across the Cascade crest. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in an additional 2-6 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades and northern Blue Mountains, and 4-8 inches for the Oregon Cascades. While the bulk of the steady snowfall has ended for the Cascades -- and will end through this afternoon for the Blues as the front sags southeast -- snow showers will persist through tonight into Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves over northeast Washington. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds have developed in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. While winds of 20-30 mph coupled with gusts of 30-40 mph have developed in climatologically wind-prone locations, confidence in the need for any wind headlines is low-medium (30-60 percent), highest for the Kittitas Valley, eastern Columbia River Gorge, lower Columbia Basin, and foothills of the Blue Mountains. Winds will be locally stronger along exposed ridges within the Columbia Plateau region. The cold air mass associated with the low has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities still suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Freeze Warnings remain in effect for tonight into Thursday morning where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon). Will note there is still uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours, so confidence in widespread freezing temperatures is shaky (50-60 percent), but think areas of freezing temperatures still have a high enough chance of developing to retain the warnings. An upper-level ridge will likely (90 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. Have not issued any Freeze Watches to avoid confusion given the existing Freeze Warnings for Thursday morning. Uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows through the weekend, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest Saturday through the remainder of the period. Precipitation chances increase Sunday, but especially Monday and Tuesday, in what is looking increasingly like a potential convective set-up for portions of the forecast area. Another deformation band similar to what was observed earlier in the week is also looking like a potential outcome should the closed low track inland along a supportive path, but confidence in that solution is currently low (20-25 percent). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... A cold front is moving across the area today, which will create gusty west wind and IFR ceilings in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, most notably at ALW and PDT early in the TAF period. Periods of light to moderate rain will obstruct visibility as low as 2 to 3SM in the vicinity of any of these aforementioned terminals and to around 3-5sm at BDN and RDM. Momentum behind the frontal boundary will maintain gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots into the evening hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 31 53 32 57 / 30 10 0 0 ALW 34 54 36 57 / 50 30 0 0 PSC 34 61 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 YKM 30 59 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 32 59 34 62 / 20 0 0 0 ELN 29 51 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 RDM 22 48 21 57 / 40 10 0 0 LGD 28 46 29 54 / 70 40 10 0 GCD 25 45 25 54 / 70 40 0 0 DLS 35 56 35 63 / 40 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030-522. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ026-027. OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...71

764 FXUS65 KREV 150854 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 154 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall tonight into Thursday morning. * Widespread hard freezes Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, with active weather possible next week. && .DISCUSSION... * A cold front passage is still on track for later this evening into Thursday morning. Lastest guidance has not changed the timing or magnitude of the winds from the prior forecast. Pre- frontal west winds this afternoon will gust between 35-45 mph across western NV and northeast CA. However, there is a likely (50-80%) chance for stronger wind gusts exceeding 55 mph in northern Washoe County, Pershing County, and the Surprise Valley this afternoon. With the passage of the front tonight, there will be a short 2-4 hour duration of strong winds along the Sierra Front, with gusts between 35-45 mph. For Thursday, the stronger winds shift south of I-80 toward Mineral and Mono counties, with northwest winds between 35-45 mph. * This is not a very wet system; high-resolution guidance shows a quick shot of light snow and rain with the frontal passage tonight into Thursday morning. Amounts are meager, with a 15-40% chance for at least 0.1" inches of snow. Timing is still on track from prior forecast. Showers will arrive between 5-8 PM tonight in Lassen County and northern Washoe County. Snow showers are then possible between 10 PM-7 AM for western NV and the Tahoe Basin. Finally, snow showers will make their way into Mineral County by around 7-9 AM Thursday. * With the passage of the cold front, Thursday high temperatures will struggle into the low 40s in the Sierra communties and near 50 degrees in western NV. With clearing skies, Friday morning low temperatures will likely (>90%) fall well into the 20s for much of northeast CA and western NV. The warmer urban locations, such as Reno, will be slightly warmer Friday morning. * We will clear out and warm up on Friday and Saturday. But, we will keep an active pattern into next week. Ensembles are in some agreement in showing a larger trough pattern over the western US from Sunday through the end of the 7-day forecast period. There are differences in timing and strenght between the ensembles, but overall it remains active weather-wise. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * A cold front will pass through tonight, creating some pre- frontal wind gusts in the afternoon likely up to 35kt. A wind shift from west to north will likely happen between 08-12Z Thursday morning for terminals around the Tahoe Basin and Sierra Front. * Ridgetop wind gusts from the west to southwest around 45-55 kts through the afternoon, increasing to 55-65 kts tonight. This will result in areas of turbulence and periods of LLWS in the Sierra and western NV terminals after 03Z. * There will be a 20-30% chance for light snow showers late tonight through Thursday morning between 05-14Z. Any accumulations will be minimal, with just a 10-30% chance for up to 0.1" of snow. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ005. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning NVZ001- 003>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday NVZ004. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ070. Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning CAZ070- 071. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$

876 FXUS66 KSTO 151902 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1202 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick moving system Today-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow, followed by gusty north to east winds Thursday- early Friday. - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Thursday... A digging trough will continue to push southward through the Pacific Northwest and toward the Great Basin today into Thursday. Light rain/mountain snow showers remain possible from Highway 50 northward through early Thursday morning, but forecast accumulations continue to dwindle with highest expected totals of 0.1"-0.25" primarily along the Sierra/southern Cascades and Shasta County mountains. Otherwise, dry and cool weather is expected to prevail elsewhere today and Thursday. As the trough ejects eastward into Thursday, gusty north to east winds are expected to develop late this evening in the northern Sacramento Valley before spreading through the remainder of the Valley and Delta overnight into Thursday. Current NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph have increased to 40-60%, with highest chances favoring the central and southern Sacramento Valley along and west of Interstate 5 and north of Interstate 80. As a result, a Wind Advisory is now in effect for the Sacramento Valley and Delta from 5 am Thursday morning through 11 pm Thursday night. Strongest Valley wind gusts are anticipated through Thursday afternoon before gradually decreasing with downslope east- northeast wind gusts up to 45 mph along the Sierra then expected to develop Thursday evening into early Friday morning. ...Friday-Saturday... As the midweek system continues its eastward trek through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter into the early weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This ridging will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from Sacramento southward. ...Sunday into Next Week... Ensemble guidance continues to indicate another deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week, but notable timing differences between ensemble suites persist at the moment. In general, a return to active weather is anticipated Sunday into early next week, however; there is potential for precipitation onset to be delayed until Sunday evening/Monday morning. Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week. At this time, NBM probabilities for precipitation greater than 1" remain around 50-70% for the mountains/foothills and 30-50% across the Valley/Delta. Snow levels are currently forecast remain around 5500-6500 feet, with most accumulations remaining above 6000 feet. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions at TAF sites next 24 hours. A weak system will bring isolated light precipitation over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after through 12Z Thursday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Gusty northerly winds develop after 09Z-12Z Thursday with gusts of 25-35 kts in the Valley. Northeast to east wind gusts of 20-40 kts in the foothills and mountains. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$

386 FXUS65 KMSO 151757 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1157 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A strong cold front sweeps through this afternoon and evening, bringing rapidly plunging snow levels and a burst of heavy precipitation. - Sudden, intense snow squalls are a significant threat for southwest Montana this evening, which could rapidly drop visibility and create hazardous travel conditions. - Lingering snow showers on Thursday and Friday will give way to a brief, pleasant warm-up this weekend. A plume of Pacific moisture will continue to fuel precipitation over north-central Idaho and northwest Montana this afternoon. The main event, a robust cold front, will sweep from west to east across the region late this afternoon and through the evening. As this front passes, expect a sharp drop in temperatures and an intense burst of precipitation. Snow levels will rapidly crash from around 4,000-6,000 feet all the way to the valley floors. The most critical impact tonight will be the potential for sudden snow squalls, particularly across southwest Montana. These fast- moving bands of intense snow and wind can cause near-zero visibility and instantly coat roads in ice and slush. If you are traveling this evening, especially over mountain passes or along the I-90 corridor in southwest Montana, be prepared for rapidly deteriorating and hazardous conditions. Behind the front, a cooler and unsettled pattern takes hold. Expect snow showers to persist across the Northern Rockies through at least Thursday. There is a renewed chance that a secondary push of cold air (a backdoor front) moving into northwest Montana Thursday morning could bring 1 to 3 inches of snow to lower- elevation spots like the Flathead Valley. High- resolution models suggest that the front will move through the rest of the region during Thursday afternoon and evening with winter-like travel conditions possible again over MacDonald and Homestake Passes. Showers will continue into Friday but will gradually taper off by Friday evening as the main storm system exits to our east. We will see a break in the active weather this weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region, clearing the skies and bringing a return to warmer, drier, and more seasonable conditions. Long-range models suggest another weather disturbance will arrive early next week, bringing a return to cooler and wetter conditions. && .AVIATION...Moisture will continue streaming into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, bringing periods of precipitation and lowering ceilings. Breezy southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts of 20-30 kts at terminal sites. This strong cold front is timed to reach KMSO by 15/2300Z, and KBTM by 16/0200Z. Expect a window of heavy precipitation and a sharp shift to northwest winds gusting 30-40 kts during the frontal passage. Snow levels ahead of the front will range from 4,000 feet in northwest Montana to 6,000 feet near Lemhi County. Behind the front, snow levels will crash to all valley floors. Snow showers and mountain obscurations will continue through Thursday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$

484 FXUS65 KBOI 152036 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 236 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and a chance of thunderstorms this evening, then snow level lowering to valley floors tonight. - Subfreezing morning temperatures tonight, Friday, and Saturday in the agricultural areas. - Warmer and drier over the weekend, with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Afternoon radar and satellite imagery showing a well defined cold front stretching through central Oregon. The front will push through SE Oregon late this afternoon and across southwest Idaho this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front with enhancement possible as it pushes into the west-central ID mountains. The wind gust potential along the front is 30-40 mph with higher end gusts of up to 50 mph from stronger showers/storms. Colder air will be quick to move in behind the front tonight, allowing for a changeover to snow down to valley floors. This will mostly impact the western Magic Valley where showers linger into Thursday morning. Otherwise lower elevations dry out behind the front overnight while mountains see a continued chance of snow showers. Light accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are expected across mountain valleys through mid-morning Thursday while higher elevations pick up an additional 3 to 8 inches of snow. In the Snake Plain temperatures will drop to around freezing Thursday morning so have opted to go with a Freeze Warning. The highest confidence for freezing temperatures is across the Upper Treasure Valley (Boise metro and points east) and western Magic Valley. Feel less certain about a freeze in the lower Treasure Valley where continued northwest winds could keep temperatures above freezing, especially near the ID/OR border. Friday is notably cooler with high temperatures around 15 degrees below normal and breezy northwest winds making it feel colder. Even warmer spots in the lower Snake Plain will see wind chill values only top out in the mid 30s to low 40s. With the cold air mass in place have much higher confidence in widespread freezing temperatures Friday morning across the Snake Plain. This will be a colder and longer duration freeze than what we see tonight. Otherwise, Friday is dry across most of the area, with scattered snow showers lingering in the west-central Idaho mountains. Temperatures will warm 5 to 10 degrees from Thursday and lighter winds lessen the chill. Another frost/freeze is possible Friday night, but will hold off on any products for now. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... A ridge building into the northwest region will bring warmer and drier conditions Saturday through Sunday. Saturday morning will still see temperatures hovering near freezing in the lower Treasure Valley and 5-10 degrees below freezing over other areas. Sunday is expected to see peak temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Guidance uncertainty remains over the arrival timing of a closed upper low digging into the region from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Overall ensemble guidance has delayed the arrival to late Monday, with a chance of precip over the SE OR areas. A slight warming trend should stay intact through midweek due to the south- southwest flow expected from this system. For now, precipitation chances will increase to 20-40% area-wide Tuesday and Wednesday. Guidance consensus generally projects higher precip coverage over the entire CWA on Wednesday as the low passes over the area. Breezy south/southwest winds are anticipated early next week as the low inches closer, becoming W-NW following its passage. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1154 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026 Low VFR/MVFR ceilings in rain and IFR/LIFR in mtn snow. Snow levels 5-7kft MSL. A cold front will bring sharp wind shifts and intensify precip after 20Z, with MVFR/IFR in heavier rain showers. A 25% chance of thunder with small hail/graupel along the front. Snow levels rapidly lowering to valley floors following the front. Scattered light snow showers expected Thursday morning through afternoon. Surface winds: SE-SW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-35 kt, then W- NW 15-30kt with gusts up to 40 kt this afternoon with the frontal passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...Showers continuing with periods of MVFR ceilings and reduced visibility this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive this afternoon around 22Z. The front will bring a sharp NW wind shift, heavier precip, temporary MVFR/IFR, and potential for graupel/lightning. Conditions returning to VFR following the front. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt this morning, then NW 15-25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt following frontal passage this afternoon/evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM MDT Thursday for IDZ012-014- 016. Freeze Warning from midnight Thursday night to 10 AM MDT Friday for IDZ012-014-016. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ015-030. OR...Freeze Warning from 4 AM MDT /3 AM PDT/ to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Thursday for ORZ064. Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Thursday night to 10 AM MDT /9 AM PDT/ Friday for ORZ064. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....JY

060 FXUS65 KLKN 151956 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1256 PM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph gusting to 50 mph across portions of Northern NV today * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest tonight. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday, though breezes will be present Sunday * Next weather system moves in early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level trough and associated surface cold front will pass through northern Nevada tonight and tomorrow, bringing cooler temperatures as well as showers and snow. Strong surface winds are also associated with the front, gusting up to 50 mph in northern Nevada today and around 40 mph in central Nevada tomorrow. Precipitation will begin as rain in Humboldt and northern Elko county before quickly transitioning to snow as it spreads south and east. Snowfall totals have decreased since this time yesterday with up to an inch now forecast for lower elevations and four to six inches forecast for mountain peaks. Minor travel impacts remain possible during the morning commute tomorrow, however ground temperatures remain relatively warm. Dry and warming weather begins on Friday, with high temperatures beginning in the 40s on Friday and warming to the upper 60s and low 70s by Sunday. Another strong upper level low is expected to approach the area by Sunday, however models are split on timing, with a faster solution bringing local impacts starting Monday while the slower solution holds off until Tuesday. The current forecast reflects the faster solution. What is consistent at this time is another cool wet and windy system that will need to be watched as it develops. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers, snow and cold today and tomorrow. Additional high confidence in calm and warming conditions through the weekend. No deviations from base NBM input at this time. && .AVIATION...Strong winds at all sites and sporadic showers at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO will be the main story through the next 24 hours. Strong winds gusting up 25-35KT will be present at all sites during daylight hours, dying back to 10-20KT overnight before picking back up tomorrow. A line of showers and snow is expected to begin at KWMC overnight and spread east over the next several hours to impact KBAM and KEKO. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ030-031-034. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94