217 FXUS66 KSEW 191807 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1007 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .UPDATE... Showers continue this morning across the Puget Sound region, Chehalis River Valley and Cascade foothills/valleys. Some snow has mixed down into lowland areas but with no reports of significant accumulation. Showers are likely to persist into the afternoon as an upper-low swings out of BC and sideswipes the region. Hi- res guidance mainly place these features over areas of terrain such as the Cascades and Olympics/Olympic foothills near Lake Cushman where snow will likely be the dominant precipitation type into the evening. The previous discussion is below along with an updated aviation section: && .SYNOPSIS... A trough and upper level low will move inland today into Friday, with rain and snow showers diminishing through today. A brief ridge will dry the region out later today into the first part of Friday. A blast of cold air from the Fraser River will keep temperatures chilly next couple of mornings, with wind chills into the low 20s and teens in many locations. Another low will dig down offshore from the Gulf of Alaska. The pattern will become active again this weekend into next week, with several rounds of rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A stacked upper level trough with an upper level low was located over the British Columbia/Washington border. This trough will spin an additional shortwave over the region this morning, which will interact with the stationary front over the central part of the state. The rain/snow showers in Snohomish County have diminished, and remnants of the complex from earlier are moving westward over north Clallam County this morning. The focus turns towards the south interior/south Puget Sound where additional bands of showers are moving north. The temperatures remain a few degrees above freezing in the Chehalis Valley/I-5 corridor (and this has kept the precipitation as rain). To the west in the Black Hills, it is closer to freezing and WSDOT cameras indicate snow on the sides of the roads on SR-8. To the north, northeast winds have picked up, bringing cooler Fraser River air into the north interior (down to as far as Clallam County). The cold weather advisory continues through late this morning for west Whatcom, San Juan, north Clallam, and also west central Snohomish Counties for wind chills in the low 20s to teens this morning. The precipitation chances decrease substantially going into the afternoon as the trough moves east. This will be replaced with a brief ridge that passes overhead late tonight/Friday morning. Some cloud-free blue sky is possible later in the day (especially in the north interior and coast) - although highs will likely struggle to reach 40 for many today. The clear skies however will result in cool temperatures tonight as the Fraser air is reinforced by north flow behind the trough (though the outflow will weaken tonight). Wind chills/apparent temperatures are likely to become brisk again in the mid 20s, and may spread to other parts of the interior. Friday will see a marginal warm up (highs returning into the low to mid 40s). The attention turns to the next low dropping down into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. Precipitation chances will increase for the Pacific Coast and Mountains late Friday into Saturday. As warmer air is brought in Saturday (highs closer to 50s), lowlands will only be expected to see rain with any showers, while mountains will see snow above 2,000 ft for the Cascades, and 3,000 ft in the Olympics. Precipitation amounts will be light for the day Saturday. Breezy offshore winds are expected Saturday, primarily in the Cascades and the Pacific Coast. Most likely gusts will peak around 25 to 35 mph. Lastly, seas are expected to increase offshore, with the potential for high surf conditions for beaches along the Pacific Coast Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Most ensembles keep the low offshore this weekend into next week, with multiple rounds of precipitation continuing the remainder of the weekend into next week. Highs will remain in the low to mid 50s through this part of the forecast. The moisture content of the precipitation will increase on Monday and Wednesday. Hydrologic flooding impacts are not expected, but there remains potential for mountain snow with this system. There is lower confidence in heavier snowfall rates, as well as snow levels with the warmer air in place, but large-scale impacts are not expected with the snow being spread across several days (Wednesday is the only day where the snow may be heavy enough to produce possible travel impacts). HPR && .AVIATION... Southwesterly flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly today as an upper level low continues to sink southward and then push inland south of the area. Some showers will across the southern portion of the area, tapering quickly through the morning. Some additional showers may wrap around the low and bring isolated rain or rain/snow again late in the day (again mostly south of KSEA/KBFI). This will maintain MVFR conditions across the south and VFR conditions elsewhere. Breezy Fraser outflow winds continue to impact KBLI this morning, but weaken starting 18-20z. Lower ceilings again develop across the south overnight, but northerly flow will aid in drying and could keep ceilings closer to 3000 ft or higher overnight. KSEA...VFR conditions with shower activity shifting south. Will see gradually decreasing clouds. Surface winds northerly at around 10 kt through the day, veering to southeast and easing this evening through the night. This brings the likelihood of MVFR stratus return again after 12z Friday. && .MARINE... A low pressure system located just south of the coastal waters will continue to move away from the area this morning. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure over the interior of British Columbia overnight will continue to promote breezy Fraser Outflow across the Northern Inland Waters and Eastern Strait and easterly flow through the central and western Strait this morning. Fraser Outflow will ease late this morning as the high over British Columbia weakens, allowing for winds to ease below small craft criteria. Seas across the coastal waters will range between 5-8 ft. Light offshore flow will then continue into early Friday with a broad surface trough over the coastal waters. A stronger system will move into the area waters over the weekend, increasing offshore flow and likely bringing southeasterly gales to the coastal waters. Seas look to build to 14-18 ft, though latest probabilistic guidance suggests that there is roughly a 40-50 percent chance of coastal seas building to greater than 18 ft. The pattern looks to remain active heading into next week, with additional systems moving across the area waters likely bringing additional rounds of headlines. 14 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding is expected over the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon PST today for Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

850 FXUS66 KPQR 191732 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 932 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 Updated Short Term and Aviation Discussions .SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers through this afternoon, with snow mainly above 1500 ft. The cool upper level trough will exit the region later today as weak high pressure returns on Friday. As the end of the week and weekend approaches, conditions look to generally warm toward seasonable normals and dry. However, a more active pattern looks to return to the region by the end of the weekend into the start of next week. && .MORNING UPDATE...Light showers continue to rapidly dissipate across the forecast area through the late morning/early afternoon. There remains a moderate chance (30-60%) that light to very light snow showers continuing for the Cascades, mainly above 1500 ft, with additional accumulations of a trace up to 2 inches through tonight. Therefore, have canceled the Winter Weather Advisories for the CWA. /42 .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Overnight temperatures tonight into Friday morning will likely cool into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Thus, any remaining moisture would freeze, resulting in slick conditions on most surfaces. As we move into the end of this week, mostly dry and warm conditions return Friday as a weak, upper level ridge builds over the area. The exception to the mostly dry conditions could be along the Coast and in the Cascades as some lingering, light showers are expected. Looking beyond Friday, into the weekend and the start of next week, WPC 500 mb cluster analysis continues to show decent agreement that the upper level ridge shifts eastward towards the Rockies on Sunday. As this ridge builds and moves eastward, 850 mb temps are expected to warm towards 0 to 2 degrees C by Saturday and 1 to 3 degrees C by Sunday. This will result in snow levels rising towards 3500-4500 ft on Sunday. Also of note, offshore gradients are expected to increase later Saturday into Sunday as low pressure systems move offshore, returning chances for enhanced easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge into the Portland/Vancouver metro. In addition to the warming pattern, models and their ensembles also bring precipitation back into the forecast by the start of next week. However, there is still high uncertainty in regards to precipitation amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall. Models indicate the potential for a weak atmospheric river somewhere along the western US coast Sunday into Monday, with the highest probabilities of enhanced rainfall currently pointed at portions of southern Oregon and California. While this is still well into the future, depending on precipitation amounts as well as snow melt, there could be hydrological concerns as the start of next week approaches. Again, there is still a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast in the extended. Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor conditions as they develop. 42/DH && .AVIATION...Showers have begun to dissipate, but several smaller low pressure systems off of the coast continue to spin. These lows will push a few showers over the region over the next several hours however, because they will be so infrequent, have largely not included in TAFs. With passing showers though temporarily lower CIGs/VIS is possible. Skies will slowly clear and lift with widespread VFR conditions expected. Overnight, winds will ease and, if skies are able to clear enough, radiational cooling would be the trend. The combination of this cooling with light winds will promote the formation of some patchy fog. Areas at the most risk will be within the Willamette Valley as winds will be southerly. One limiting factor though will be clouds. If terminals remain overcast with no breaks, then fog is less likely. Models suggest anywhere from a 10-40% chance of fog around KPDX, and KEUG therefore have hinted at it towards the end of the forecast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Light winds with a slight northwesterly component. clouds remain with isolated observations of IFR CIGs. These conditions are expected to be prolonged so have omitted from the forecast for now. VFR conditions to prevail over the next 12+ hours. After 09Z Fri, if skies clear or partially clear, there is around a 20-30% chance of fog formation. Confidence is low and likely would be patchy. However will continue to watch satellite through the afternoon. -27 && .MARINE...A low pressure system near the north Oregon coast will move south across the coastal waters this morning, dissipating near the Oregon/California border. Stronger showers may produce brief wind gusts up to 20-25 kt through this period. Northerly winds on the west side of the low, mainly beyond 30 NM, are expected to remain breezy through this morning with gusts up to 25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer coastal waters through this afternoon. Buoys are reporting seas of around 7 to 8 ft but could build back to around 8 to 10 ft later this morning before subsiding to around 5 to 6 ft on Friday. Winds and seas are expected to increase this weekend as a stronger system nears the waters. An extended period of southerly gales is likely (at least 80% chance) across the outer coastal waters as a series of low pressure systems move north. With the stronger southerly winds, there is increasing chances for storm force winds. Current peak wind gusts show an 50-75% chance of gusts of 48 kt or greater. However, these may not be prolonged and appear to be isolated to the outer waters. Seas are expected to respond as wind waves and a fresh southerly swell will build combined seas into the teens (80% chance beyond 20 NM). Have issued a Gale Watch beginning late Friday night and continuing into Sunday morning. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ271>273. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

240 FXUS66 KMFR 191811 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1011 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion. && .AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS...Low pressure will move to the south and east of the area this afternoon and tonight. Steady light snow (with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions) falling across SE Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake counties will gradually come to an end this evening with improving conditions overnight into Friday. Satellite imagery is showing some low clouds across west side valleys behind this low and these will persist for at least a few more hours before breaking to VFR in all but the Umpqua Basin (Roseburg) during the afternoon. Roseburg could break to VFR briefly this evening before the low clouds (IFR/MVFR) return overnight and persist into Friday. Instability on the back side of the low will bring isolated to scattered rain/snow showers just about anywhere this afternoon and early this evening, but especially in the mountains and along the SW Oregon coast (North Bend/Brookings). These should diminish in coverage by late evening. PAtchy low clouds and/or fog could impact the terminals at Medford/Klamath Falls very late tonight or around sunrise Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026/ DISCUSSION...A low pressure system is swinging over northern California and southern Oregon, bringing another round of winter weather this morning. Snowfall has already been reported in parts of western Douglas County and is visible on roadcams at Cave Junction and Hayes Hill, putting snow levels down to 1500 feet or lower. This supports chances of snow reaching valley floors this morning. Forecast amounts are on the lighter side, with west side valleys all expected to get less than an inch of snowfall through the rest of this morning. Locally higher amounts are possible as showers move over the area. Generally, terrain west of the Cascades may see another 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. Amounts look to be slightly higher in the Mount Shasta region, as a period of upslope flow could bring 4 to 6 inches of snow to areas around Dunsmuir and McCloud while Mount Shasta City looks to stay in the 2 to 4 inch range. Areas east of the Cascades will get their snowfall later in the morning and into the afternoon, with remaining amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range across most of the area and less than an inch in north Lake County. Precipitation decreases tonight, with another round of below average overnight lows late tonight into early Friday morning. This may bring near freezing temperatures to coastal cities and near Advisory levels for the Rogue Valley (Advisory at 20 F) and western Siskiyou County (Advisory at 15 F). Areas east of the Cascades are expected to see low temperatures in the single digits to mid teens. These conditions can freeze lingering water or wet snow or cause harm to plants and animals that are not acclimated. Most of Friday should be generally uneventful weatherwise as a shortwave ridge passes over the area. A deep low pressure system leaving the Gulf of Alaska and moving south over the Pacific will dictate activity through the weekend. The details of this low have been coarse, and further changes are certainly possible as high-resolution guidance becomes available. Broadly, a warm front attached to the low looks to bring inland activity on Saturday. This initial front would raise snow levels to 2500-3500 feet. As the low moves south and settles due west of Oregon at 140W, a tight pressure gradient aloft could develop on Sunday. This would bring gusty southerly winds over elevated terrain and into the Shasta and southern Rogue Valleys. This setup would also bring heavy rainfall to Curry and Siskiyou County, notably around the Mount Shasta region through upslope flow. Previous guidance has kept this low at 140W and snow levels in the 3000-4000 foot range, which brought substantial snowfall to area terrain. Current guidance has the low stretching an upper trough to the southeast. This allows the trough to draw in tropical moisture, forming an atmospheric river that would bring ample rainfall to coastal areas and western Siskiyou County Monday into Tuesday. Current guidance has snow levels at 6000 feet, minimizing winter impacts for everywhere expect the highest peaks and ridgelines Details for the impacts of this deep upper low will continue to come into focus. Please stay tuned to future updates for any expectations of hazardous conditions. -TAD AVIATION...19/12Z TAFS...A passing upper low is bringing rain and snow showers across northern California and southern Oregon early this morning. Many areas are seeing MVFR to LIFR conditions as showers move over. Activity is focused west of the Cascades this morning, then moving east of the Cascades into the afternoon. Post frontal showers may bring locally lower flight levels through tonight, but generally flight levels should be at VFR by this evening. Showers look to be limited to the Oregon coast or the Cascades by the end of the TAF period. -TAD MARINE...Updated 330 AM PST Thursday, February 19, 2026...Steep to locally very steep seas can be expected today as combined seas reach 10-16 ft. Even after winds ease briefly tonight, steep seas will persist through the early morning hours (4am PST) of Friday. Then, a strong storm will move southward over the eastern Pacific from the Gulf of Alaska, with strong southerly gales and a potential for storm force gusts (especially over the outer waters - beyond 10 NM from shore) Saturday into Sunday. We have issued a gale watch for the outer waters where confidence is highest. This is likely to result in high to very high and very steep seas across the waters late Saturday through Sunday into Monday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ030- 031. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ370- 376. Gale Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for PZZ370-376. && $$

834 FXUS66 KEKA 190952 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 152 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Major winter weather impacts (heavy wet snow, rain & gusty winds) expected through Thursday. A break in the precip is expected Thursday afternoon through Friday before another storm system moves in for the weekend bringing rain, snow & strong winds. && KEY MESSAGES: * Additional widespread rain, heavy wet snow and gusty winds tonight through Thursday will result in dangerous travel conditions, downed trees and possible power outages. * Major travel impacts will continue on highways 199, 299, 3, 36 and 101 through Thursday, with a brief break is expected on Friday. * Small hail accumulation is expected for lower elevations along the NW California Coast, with heavy showers tonight through Thursday morning. * A brief break is expected Friday, with below-normal diurnal and overnight temperatures. * Heavy rain with higher snow levels and strong gusty winds probable this weekend. Flooding is possible in Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino and Lake counties. .DISCUSSION...Widespread rain, heavy wet snow, and gusty winds are expected through Thursday as an occluded cold front drops down from the Pacific NW. Snow levels are expected to lower to around 1,000 to 2,000 feet, with levels as low as 500-1,000ft for Trinity, interior Del Norte, Trinity, and northern Humboldt counties. Down south, a warmer air mass will slightly raise the snow levels to around 2,000- 3,000 feet at Mendocino and Lake counties Thursday. The heaviest wet snow rates are expected Thursday morning. Additional accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are forecast for elevations above 2,000 feet in Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity counties; lighter amounts up to 1 inches for elevations above 1,000 feet to 2,000 feet. Meanwhile, 4 to 6 inches of wet snow is expected for elevations above 2,500 feet in Mendocino and Lake counties. Major travel impacts will continue on highways 199, 299, 3, 36 and 101 through Thursday. There is the potential for accumulating small hail at lower elevations with the heavy showers tonight through Thursday morning, which can create slippery "ice rink" conditions on the roads in a matter of seconds. Showers are expected to diminish Thursday evening as northerly winds aloft bring a drier air mass across the area. This airmass will be very cold, yet how much this is felt at surface will depend on the extend of cloud coverage. Overnight low temperatures may end up warmer than expected if there are more low clouds. Either way, temperatures are forecasted to be cold enough to cause a cold weather advisory for Thursday morning and Friday morning for SW Humboldt, coastal Mendocino, the Russian River Valley, and Southern Lake COunty. On Friday, a brief break of precipitation is expected allowing even colder overnight lows if clouds do not inhibit nighttime cooling. This weekend and into early next week, the active weather pattern continues with the approach of a broad closed upper- level trough and associated frontal system. The WPC 500 mb cluster analysis continues to show a decent agreement that a broad closed upper level trough will settle over the Northeastern Pacific. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, heavy mountain snow and strong southerly winds. The ensemble means for both the GEFS and EPS are showing a high probabilities (90-100% chance) of at a weak atmospheric river (IVT`s greater than 250 kg/m/s), however there is an increasing chance (35-60% chance) for over 500 kg/m/s. While this is not particularly strong, it looks like there will be multiple impulses that may over whelm the rivers and streams. There still uncertainties on exact timing of the rain pulses, which will be a big factor in the level of impacts. Strong, southerly winds are also expected with the strongest through Saturday night. The mean NBM 24 hour max gust shows around 40 to 55 mph at the lower elevations and the higher elevation wind gusts are showing over 70 mph. /ds && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light surface winds have prevailed at the terminals with periods of random rain showers, intense and mixed with small hail at times, has occasionally resulted in MVFR ceilings from 1500-3000 feet and IFR vsby around 1 to 2 miles. Expect VFR to predominate through Thursday. There is about a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings and a 20% chance for IFR vsby in more intense convection or showers at any given time. Winds will remain predominately light, 10 kt or less, with a 25% chance for gusts to 30 kt in showers. && .MARINE...A large, steep, northwest swell will diminish into Thursday. A west wind surge is forecast to develop again after frontal passage tonight, followed by periodic gale force N wind gusts for mostly the outer waters on Thu. Gales are most likely for the southern outer waters. Conditions settle down very briefly on Fri before a series of powerful frontal systems bring a moderate to high risk for gale or storm force winds Fri night through Sun night. More specific updates and details for the hazardous weekend will become available soon as high resolution model data becomes available. && .HYDROLOGY...An atmospheric river event is expected to impact NW California this weekend and into early next week. Moderate to heavy rainfall will increase the potential for rapid rises on rivers, streams and creeks across the region. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) included Del Norte County, Humboldt, Mendocino and Lake counties in the Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of excessive rainfall for Sunday. There is a 55 to 80% chance for 24-hr probability of precipitation >1" from 4 PM Saturday through 4 PM Sunday, with up to 95% chance for the exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. There is a 50-75% prob. for >2" & a 30-50% for >3" for elevated coast terrain Sat to Sun. A rapid rise of the main stem river is expected on Sunday. At this point, the Russian River at Hopland has around a 20% chance of exceeding flood stage Sunday evening. Many other rivers such as the Navarro, Mad, and Eel are expected to reach action/monitor stage. These will need to be watched as it gets closer. The rest of the main stem river are not expected to reach/exceed flood stage as of yet./ds && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ101-103. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ102-105>108. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM PST early this morning for CAZ104-110-111-114-115. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ104-109-112-113-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for PZZ470-475. Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

582 FXUS66 KMTR 191743 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 943 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 - Thunderstorms capable of producing lightning, erratic/gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, accumulating small hail, and waterspouts will be possible this morning with the cold frontal passage - Rain showers and thunderstorms will remain possible in the post-frontal environment - Accumulating snow is possible in the higher terrain, especially for the Central Coast - Cold to very cold conditions return tonight - Hazardous beach conditions for Pacific Coast beaches through Friday morning && .UPDATE... Issued at 902 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 The main rain band has exited to our east and scattered showers continue to move through the region. Additional rainfall is expected to be light but short periods of locally moderate rain are expected as showers move inland. Strong winds briefly developed this morning as the cold front passed through and in the wake of the front. Areas along the coast and across the higher elevations saw gusts between 40 to 50 mph with some of the windiest locations seeing brief periods of 60+ mph winds. Winds will remain breezy through the rest of today but should be on the downtrend. Highest confidence in gusts between 30 to 40 mph through this afternoon with winds diminishing late this evening into tonight. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Today and tonight) A gale force low pressure system just outside of our marine zones will continue to strengthen as it approaches the Pacific Coast. The attendant cold front is expected to bring at least briefly hazardous conditions in terms of thunderstorms and wind. The three ingredients needed for a thunderstorm are lift, instability, and moisture. Multiple lifting mechanisms are in place with upper-level support. The instability can be characterized by conditionally unstable low- level lapse rates and low CAPE. Today`s 00Z sounding observed a PWAT value of 0.52 inches (daily mean 0.59 inches) with the moisture confined to the low and mid levels. While not necessary for development, shear is another thing to look at for thunderstorms, especially for severe potential. Forecast soundings have 30 knots of 0-1 km shear, 50 knots of 0-3 km shear, and 90 knots of 0-6 km shear. This environment as a whole can be characterized as a high shear, low CAPE environment: 500 J/kg or less of SBCAPE, 1000 J/kg or less of MUCAPE, and 0-6 km shear of 35 knots or more. This environment will be capable of producing thunderstorms with lightning, locally strong to damaging gusts, accumulating small hail, and waterspouts. Strong southerly winds will develop ahead of the cold front and quickly veer after its passage to become northwesterly. Gusts up to 50 mph are likely across the Pacific Coast and in the higher terrain with 30-40 mph expected in low- lying interior locations. If you must drive this morning: keep your headlights on, keep your cruise control off, leave plenty of following distance between the car in front of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Post-frontal rain showers are expected with a low potential for thunderstorms. Post- frontal clearing will allow for widespread cold to very cold conditions to settle in Thursday night. These conditions will be impactful to people, pets, and plants - please take the necessary precautions for each. Damp conditions will have it feeling colder than the thermometer reads as well as pose the risk for black ice. The warm front associated with the surface low is adding some complexity to the snow forecast; nonetheless, high elevation snow remains possible, especially for the Central Coast where accumulation up to 10 inches is possible. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1256 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) Friday will be cold and dry with temperatures well below normal. Rain returns Saturday as a rapidly intensifying storm force low pressure system encroaches the West Coast. Fortunately, it looks to stay in the Pacific Northwest which will keep our region merely on the periphery of it. Still, an increase in rainfall coverage and intensity and wind can be expected. The parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will persist, allowing for the entrainment of tropical moisture in the Sunday into Monday timeframe. Minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas should be expected as a result. There`s a low probability (20% chance or less) of mainstem river flooding; however, if the QPF forecast trends higher and/or the heaviest rainfall sets up over a watershed, probabilities will increase. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 928 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 A typical mixed bag, post-frontal atmosphere through today with periods of mostly clear skies and isolated convective cells. Showers currently moving across the region will exit and activity diminishes through this afternoon. However, breezy NW flow will continue into this evening across most terminals. With much of this week`s weather events behind us, conditions appear much more favorable for aviators across the region Friday. Vicinity of SFO...Gusty NW winds continue through this evening. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect until 0300Z for NW gusts up to 35 kts. Otherwise, VFR prevail through the TAF period with the exception of a few scattered showers through midday today (potential for brief MVFR cigs and slant range vis reduction). SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Breezy W/NW winds will continue into this evening. Rain is mostly done for outside of a small chance of a brief, isolated shower invof terminals through this afternoon. Conditions for aviators improve overnight tonight with Friday appearing to be a decent day for flying. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 902 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 Northwest winds strengthening through today with widespread gale force gusts. Winds ease tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Rough to very rough seas prevail through the week. Rain chances return late in the day on Saturday and continue into early next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 351 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 A High Surf Advisory remains in effect from the coastal North Bay to coastal Monterey County until 9 AM Friday. Dangerous conditions with localized beach erosion can be expected. Sneaker waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from rocks, jetties and beaches. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1047 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026 The following are the record low temperatures at the long term sites for Friday, Feb 20th. Location Record Low Santa Rosa 26 in 1913 Kentfield 27 in 1913 Napa 27 in 2018 Richmond 35 in 1990 Livermore 27 in 2018 San Francisco 38 in 1897 SFO Airport 36 in 2018 Redwood City 30 in 1933 Half Moon Bay 28 in 2018 Oakland Museum 36 in 2011 San Jose 30 in 1897 Salinas Airport 28 in 1953 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-529- 530. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ502- 503-505-508-512-513-528-529. Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-506- 510-514>518. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for CAZ517-518. PZ...Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

679 FXUS66 KOTX 191754 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 954 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic hit and miss snow showers Thursday and Friday. - More organized systems arriving Sunday into next week with snow in the mountains and mix of rain and snow for the lowlands. - Winter travel conditions expected over the mountain passes. && .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will continue on and off Thursday into Friday. Temperatures moderate over the weekend with additional chances for mountain snow and mix of rain and snow in the lowlands next week. Travel over the Cascades could be challenging at times next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday: A cold upper-level trough remains over the region today with 500mb temperatures remaining near -33C or colder. This is leading to steep lapse rates of 8C/km or greater and it`s not taking much for showers to spring to life and numerous showers still ongoing this evening despite the loss of daytime heating. One feature that will assist with snow shower production today will be an axis of low level convergence stretching roughly from Wenatchee to Colville to Porthill. Southerly winds south of this axis will interact with northerly winds ushering modified arctic air into the region. This will not be particularly cold but very dry with dewpoints already into the teens to single digits around Omak, Oroville, and Republic. Consequently, the drier boundary air will counteract light snow through the day limiting snow accumulations to under an inch from Omak to Wenatchee. Probabilities for an inch or more increase between Republic, Colville, and Ione toward 50-60%. Sun breaks in the lower Basin, Palouse, and Idaho Panhandle will promote cumulus buildups with a 10-20% for a brief snow shower through the day. As we head into Thursday night, the upper-level trough begins to pivot east. Southerly, low-level flow weakens and the cooler, drier air will flood southward with winds shifting to the northwest. This boundary traversing the region will bring a renewed chance for snow showers through the evening and overnight hours before exiting to the east Friday morning. Friday-Saturday: Shortwave ridging builds into Central WA Friday then toward the ID/MT border Saturday. There is a 30-60% chance for light snow showers over the Idaho and far southeastern WA into Friday afternoon, otherwise the trend will be for drier conditions as the ridge axis traverses the region. The dry air will allow for strong radiational cooling with Friday morning temperatures over north-central WA starting off in the single digits to teens, especially where there is fresh snow. Clouds and ongoing snow showers will hold some warmth further east with morning temperatures only dipping into the teens to twenties. The increasing heights aloft are in response to a deep low settling in off the WA coast. Midlevel flow will shift back to the southwest and temperatures will begin to moderate Saturday following another chilly start in the teens and twenties. Moisture pulled northward along the coast will begin to trickle into the Cascades by Saturday afternoon with a 60% chance for light snow before sunset. Saturday night-Monday: Precipitation chances will continue to increase over Central WA Saturday night and Sunday and slowly expand into Eastern WA and North Idaho latter Sunday into Monday. Where precipitation falls Saturday night and Sunday, it mainly fall as snow except in the lower Basin. Snow levels will be on the rise Sunday night into Monday with lowland snow opportunities retreating toward the Canadian border and Northern Cascades with the approach and passage of a stronger frontal system and influx of deeper moisture with precipitable water values of 120-140% of normal. How fast and far north snow levels rise does come with moderate uncertainty due to uncertainty with residence time in the warm sector and timing of the cold front. Loose agreement would suggest the 3000 foot snow level would make as far north as the Hwy 20 corridor while snow levels over southern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle climb near 4000-5000 feet. These levels are low enough such that snow will impact Stevens, Sherman, and to a lesser extent, Lookout Pass. Please keep this in mind if you are traveling across the mountains. There are signals on Monday for a 40-45kt low-level jet to develop within this warm sector but uncertainty if these stronger winds will mix down to the surface; something that we are monitoring closely. Tuesday-Thursday: Nearly 90% of the ensemble members support the remnants of the offshore low ejecting inland Tuesday into Wednesday. This leads to high confidence for the air mass to cool driving temperatures back toward normal or slightly below. This will also direct the axis of deeper moisture well south of the Pac NW with increasing westerly flow. This has potential for persistent snow showers the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The NBM is indicating an 80% chance for 12+ inches over the 2 day period (WED-THU). Probabilities are near 40% for Lookout Pass for similar amounts. Exactly how this period plays out is far from certain. 40-50% of the members showing the cool trough swinging into the PacNW while 50% deflect it further east into the Plains. Both support westerly flow and snow levels low enough for at least mountain snow but needless to say, confidence is not high with the forecast to close out next week. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Cold upper-level trough over the region is promoting unstable conditions. VFR conditions will largely prevail for the next 24 hours. Moderate to perioidcally heavy snow will continue to bring periodic visibility below a mile and cigs below 500 feet for K63S through 20z. KEAT and KMWH appear too dry for snow with the band of light snow developing in central WA with a 8 to 10 degree dewpoint depression. This shower acitivty will blossom and translate east towards KGEG-KSFF-KCOE in the afternoon around 22z-02z. Additional development is expected further south for KPUW-KLWS around 03-06z but confidence is low (20-30% chance). This round of snow could bring brief MVFR cigs (30-40% chance) and visibility dropping below 3 miles. The trough axis and vort max shifts east out of the region after 12z squashing snow potential and bringing in a more stable airmass. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in MVFR conditions with any snow showers. Low confidence on exact timing for snow for terminals today. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 36 20 33 23 42 27 / 20 40 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 35 20 33 21 41 25 / 20 50 40 10 0 0 Pullman 35 23 32 24 40 30 / 10 50 60 0 0 0 Lewiston 40 28 39 25 45 31 / 0 40 40 0 0 0 Colville 32 11 33 20 40 23 / 60 40 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 32 20 32 21 37 24 / 50 60 40 10 10 0 Kellogg 35 23 31 22 40 25 / 30 60 70 10 10 0 Moses Lake 37 20 36 25 45 30 / 20 10 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 33 19 34 25 38 30 / 30 20 0 0 10 10 Omak 29 14 32 23 39 28 / 30 10 0 0 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

199 FXUS66 KPDT 191758 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 958 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 Updated Aviation Discussion .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering mountain snow through Friday. *Winter Weather Advisory remains active* - Active weather returns this weekend onward. .DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite imagery show high clouds moving across most of the forecast area with partly clear skies over portions of the Lower Columbia Basin and eastern OR mountains (the Wallowas and Northern/Northwest Blues). A closed low over the west coast is bringing light snow showers along the OR Cascade crest. However, the snow showers will weaken by early morning. As the troughing pattern continues moving across the PacNW, mountain snow will linger through Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory will remain through 10AM PST today for the East Slopes of the OR Cascades with snow accumulations up to 5 inches. With the 25th-75th percentile and NWP guidance favoring the downward trend of snowfall totals (>1 inch, <20% probability), the advisory could end early than expected. We will continue monitoring the OR Cascades and reassess any changes if need be. The remaining mountain areas will have light snow through Friday (>1 inch, 20-40% prob). The lowlands may see snow accumulations up to 0.05 inch, but chances are low (<30%). The upper ridge will then arrive late Friday through Sunday morning. Most of our forecast area will enter in a dry period Saturday through early Sunday morning, but with the approaching frontal system clipping the WA/OR Cascades. Light snow may develop over the WA/OR Cascades with snow accumulations exceeding 1 inch (20-40% prob) with possibly light rain/snow mix for the lowlands. With the west-southwesterly flow aloft, sustained winds of 12-15 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph are possible late Saturday morning through Sunday (50-80% prob). Active weather conditions will persist Monday onward with lower elevation rain and mountain snow. Winter Weather headlines could be considered for the WA/OR Cascades Monday with high-end snowfall totals (5-10 inches for WA Cascades and 2-6 inches for OR Cascades). Being 4 days+ out, confidence will be low (15-30%) at this time. Feaster/97 && .UPDATE... Winter Weather Advisory over the Oregon Cascades has been cancelled as the threat has ended. Lingering light snow showers will continue through the day with 50-60% probabilities of another 1-2 inches over the next 12 hours. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...MVFR or lower conditions forecast through the period. A weak upper level weather will bring light snow or rain/snow chances across most sites through the period, starting with sites RDM/BDN/YKM where light snow is currently being reported. Expect another round of light snow at sites RDM/BDN after 21Z. Otherwise, PROB30 groups for light precipitation have been included at sites PDT/ALW after 6Z, site PSC after 4Z, and site YKM after 23Z. Expect CIGs and vsby to deteriorate as light precipitation develops, especially with light snow impacts. Site DLS will be under MVFR CIGs through 20Z, with VFR conditions favored through the remainder of the period. There is a low chance (<20%) that CIGs may drop to or below 1kft after 06Z. Winds will be light, 12kts or less, through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 25 41 25 48 / 40 10 0 0 ALW 27 41 27 47 / 40 40 0 0 PSC 25 44 26 49 / 20 10 0 0 YKM 21 39 25 42 / 20 0 0 10 HRI 26 45 25 48 / 30 10 0 10 ELN 18 35 22 38 / 20 10 0 20 RDM 16 39 22 43 / 10 0 0 10 LGD 21 38 24 40 / 50 40 0 0 GCD 21 37 22 42 / 50 10 0 10 DLS 27 44 30 45 / 20 10 10 30 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ UPDATE...90 DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...82

617 FXUS65 KREV 190936 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 136 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another, quick moving storm brings additional snow and widespread travel impacts across the Sierra and portions of western Nevada through tonight. * Dry conditions with mild temperatures and light winds prevail from Friday through at least Sunday. * More winter weather arrives as early as Monday, with higher snow levels bringing potential flooding concerns for lower elevations. && .DISCUSSION... From current radar imagery we can determine a handful of things: it continues to snow in the Sierra around the Tahoe Basin, light showers continue to spread along the Sierra Front into the Basin and Range, and more intense bands of snow can be seen populating off of Lake Tahoe. Areas within these more intense snow bands can expect locally higher snowfall totals and snowfall rates, but we`ll get into the details below. The low pressure system continuing our winter weather this week can be seen spinning off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. The forecast continues to stay on track with 1-4" of snow on valley floors and 3-6" for foothills above 5000`. Snowfall rates for valleys will remain under 1"/hr but those more intense snow bands could see rates over 1"/hr. Snow showers will continue in the Sierra through much of today. For details on snowfall totals, rates, and SLRs, please see the Avalanche section below. Areas of NE CA are still on track to see 2-6" of snow, with up to 12" above 7000` and locally up to 18" along the highest peaks through late tonight. Our friends out in the Basin and Range also have the potential to get in on the snow action today. That aforementioned low? There`s two tracks that it could take today; a handful of the hi-res models show the low tracking along I-80 out past Winnemucca. However, the other half want to drag the low south towards Tonopah. Depending on this track, we could see additional snow in the Basin and Range, but the question remains where. If it takes the I-80 track, we could see a couple inches in Fernley/Fallon, possibly even down to Yerington. If the low drops south, areas in Hawthorne and Smith Valley could see a couple of inches, with increased snowfall in Mono county as well. Despite the uncertainty, what we are certain about is travel and commute impacts across much of the area today. The AM commute will be slick along the Sierra Front, especially over bridges, and not just because of light snow showers overnight. Any remaining water will have likely refrozen, creating icy conditions. The PM commute may also experience impacts as the heaviest snowfall is expected by midday. With temperatures plunging overnight after the snow tapers off, be aware of slick and icy patches persisting into the Friday morning commute as well. Remember, take it slow in snow! Another pleasant weekend is in store as dry conditions settle back in, bringing light winds and mild temperatures. Said conditions will continue through at least Sunday. Model guidance hints at another system arriving as early as Monday. While timing continues to trend this system later and later (seems to be the trend of this season in general), there`s higher confidence on this being a warmer system. This will allow for higher snow levels (currently around or above 7000`) and the risk for rain on snow, and the corresponding flooding concerns, for valley locations. Stay tuned for more concrete details over the weekend. -Giralte && .AVIATION... LIFR/IFR conditions expected for Sierra terminals through 06Z tonight due to additional SHSN with a 50% chance for 4+" of snow for KTRK/KTVL by early evening (20% chance for KMMH). Sierra Front terminals can expect MVFR/LIFR conditions due to -SHSN today, with the heaviest snowfall expected around 18Z today. There`s a 70% chance for at least 1" of snow for KCXP/KMEV, with a 30% chance for the same amount at KRNO by early evening. Showers will decrease in intensity after sunset, wrapping up entirely by early Friday. Winds will be relatively light for Sierra Front terminals with gusts up to 35 kts for Sierra terminals. LLWS continues for all terminals through early evening. -Giralte && .AVALANCHE... Another round of snow has arrived this early morning, continuing through late tonight, and impacting all avalanche center terrain. * Snowfall totals and rates: For SAC terrain, 6-12" with up to 18" along the crest and locally up to 24" west of Mt. Tallac. For BAC terrain, 8-18" of snow. For ESAC terrain, 4-6" along US-395 with 10-14" along the crest, locally up to 18" in the Mammoth area. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr, with 1.5-2"/hr in the late morning through the early afternoon. * SLRs and SWE: SLRs look to remain around 14-16:1 with this system while SWE ranges from 0.75-1.25", coming up a bit from the previous forecast. Expect locally lower for BAC terrain, with SWE of 0.75-1". * Ridgetop gusts: Southwest winds of 50-60 mph with localized gusts up to 70 mph. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002-003. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ071>073. && $$

354 FXUS66 KSTO 192043 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1243 PM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold storm brings continued dangerous travel impacts to the mountains and foothills with heavy snow and gusty winds today - Mostly dry and colder temperatures Friday and Saturday with a few lingering showers over the northern mountains - Warmer storm brings additional rounds of breezy southerly winds, precipitation and mountain snow Sunday through mid next week with higher snow levels && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Current RADAR imagery illustrates continued snowfall over the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades foothill and mountain areas this afternoon. The majority of precipitation has ended for the Valley and northern zones, however continued dangerous travel conditions are forecast for the Sierra and southern Cascades mountains and foothills through this afternoon as periods of moderate to heavy snow continue to fall today. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled for the Coast Range, Shasta County mountains, northern Sacramento Valley and Burney Basin as the heavier snow has moved out of the area, and the warning remains in effect for the rest of our mountains and foothills until 10 PM this evening. Winds have been gradually tapering off today, and the Wind Advisory was also cancelled early. Some lingering breezy conditions may be observed through the rest of the day, however the strongest winds have subsided. Precipitation will continue to taper off later today and then drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday. Very cold temperatures are forecast tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning. Friday is expected to have the coldest morning lows, and we have issued Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Warnings to address the impacts from the cold weather. Cold weather will be especially impactful for those in the mountain and foothill communities that are without power from the storm. Lighter showers and snow showers will be possible mainly over the northern portion of our forecast area on Saturday before a warmer system moves in on Sunday. ...Sunday into Next Week... Ensemble guidance indicates a warmer system arriving later this weekend that may bring additional rounds of rain and mountain snow into next week, along with periodically breezy southerly winds. The snow levels with this storm will be much higher than the current one, with the latest guidance showing snow levels initially around 4000-5000 feet on Sunday, rising to 6000-7000+ feet Sunday night through Tuesday, and then lowering down to 5000- 6000 feet Wednesday. Slick roads and travel delays will be possible with this next storm. Be sure to check back for updates as we get closer! && .AVIATION... VFR conditions this afternoon, with a slight chance for MVFR conditions due to mist or fog in the Sacramento area overnight. MVFR/IFR conditions continue in the mountains through around 12z Friday due to lingering snowfall. Southerly Valley wind gusts up to 20 kts and mountain gusts up to 40 kts through 06z Friday, then winds generally below 12 kts for the remainder of the forecast period. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Friday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Motherlode- Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Friday for the Sacramento Valley, foothills and mountains. && $$

259 FXUS65 KMSO 192047 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 147 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Quick-moving system brings a burst of snow and gusty winds to north-central Idaho and Western Montana tonight into Friday morning. - Spotty, but locally-intense, snow showers may impact Friday afternoon travel with quick accumulations and reduced visibility. - A potent, moisture-laden system arrives early next week bringing significant mountain snow and widespread, but highly uncertain mix of, precipitation to the valleys. Temperatures have bottomed out following the recent Arctic push. Tonight into Friday morning, a fast-moving upper-level vorticity max and associated cold front sweeps from west to east. A quick burst of snow and wind gusts to 25 mph is looking fairly likely. A quick 1-2 inches of snow is possible around Grangeville, Kamiah, Pierce, and passes along the MT-ID border. Lighter intensity yet nearly- steady snow is expected in Northwest Montana at all elevations across Lincoln, Sanders, Flathead, and even Lake counties with just a brief uptick in intensities with the arrival of the front early Friday morning. Winter Weather Advisories are not anticipated at this time due to icy conditions already present in Northwestern Montana and the system`s progressive nature limiting total snow accumulations, but trends will be monitored and the issuance of Special Weather Statements preferred at this time to cover brief reductions in travel conditions during the overnight period. Friday afternoon, reinforced cold air aloft behind the front will steepen lapse rates further and trigger scattered convective snow showers across the region. These spotty, moderately intense showers will be able to produce localized bursts of heavier snow, visibility reductions, and quick accumulations that will easily stick to the cold road surfaces. A transient ridge builds this weekend, keeping conditions cool on Saturday before the ridge strengthens and shifts northward into Sunday. Increasing southwesterly flow and warming aloft should erode most valley inversions by late in the weekend. Subtropical moisture arrives in southwesterly flow for Monday into Tuesday. Widespread precipitation is highly likely, bringing significant mountain snow. The forecast for valleys and locations below 5,000 feet is much more complex with a massive spread (2,500-5,500ft) in potential snow levels. Deep or very sheltered valleys (Seeley, Swan, valleys of NW Montana) may trap cold air more efficiently during the weekend ridging, leading to concerns of freezing rain and mixed rain/snow as warmer air rides up and over the region. Global model soundings at this time suggest that the warm air intrusion may be very shallow or not warm enough to override snow as the main p-type even as far south as Missoula. We will have to monitor how warm we get this weekend and how deep the warm southwesterlies become, at this point, primary discrepancies to the forecast might just be snow-to-lquid ratios and how much snow actually sticks as opposed to rain vs snow. This is a time period worth watching closely. Active, westerly flow persists through next week, though confidence in exact wave timing and intensity remains rather low. && .AVIATION...Overnight into Friday morning, a fast-moving wave brings a band of moderate snow to the region rapidly lowering flight conditions. Ridgetop winds will shift from southwest to due west behind the front at 20-30 knots. Flight conditions generally improve into Friday afternoon for most areas, but scattered convective showers will cause periodic, sudden drops in visibility and ceilings along with localized gusty winds associated with convection. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

026 FXUS65 KBOI 192103 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 203 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...The broad upper level trough that has influenced the region for the past several days will begin its inland trek tonight. A weak shortwave moving along the Oregon coast and into California will bring scattered snow showers across southeast Oregon and along the Idaho and Nevada border later this afternoon through this evening. Localized accumulations of up to 2 inches remain possible in the higher terrain however most locations should see less than half an inch. The core of the trough shifts east into the Great Basin. One final round of light, scattered snow showers is possible Friday morning through afternoon as the trailing edge of the trough moves through. The best chance for snow for the Treasure Valley will be Friday morning during the commute though accumulations are expected to be minimal with less than 0.2 inches. By Friday afternoon, heights begin to rise as a shortwave ridge builds in from the west. This will mark the beginning of a drying trend and a notable clearing of skies from west to east. Saturday and Saturday night will see the ridge amplify over the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to a period of quiet weather and a steady warming trend. High temperatures on Saturday will climb back to near seasonal normals, with mostly sunny skies and breezy southeasterly winds. Clear skies and light winds Saturday night may once again allow for cold valley bottoms. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Southwesterly flow strengthens on Sunday and Monday as a deep trough site off the Pacific Northwest coast. This will keep conditions dry, with a warming trend. Temps rise to 5-10 degrees above normal Sunday/Monday. At the same time, clouds increase beginning Monday afternoon as the low moves inland. Rain and snow showers on the western fringe of our forecast area begin to move into the rest of the area Monday night. The warmer temps bring snow levels up to 5-6 kft MSl for the onset of precip, and much of the heavier precip will occur during this onset period and on Tuesday. This will bring heavy snow to many mountains, with light to moderate rain for mountain valleys and low lying areas. Tuesday evening, the bulk of the moisture moves east of the area and precipitation chances come down to 20-40% every 6 hour period through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, models heavily favor a mostly dry solution with a 10% chance of light showers lingering in central Idaho on Thursday. && .AVIATION...VFR with high clouds. A narrow band of light to moderate snow showers and MVFR-IFR moves NW to SE, thru KBKE/KBNO around midnight, KMYL/Treasure Valley Fri/10-14Z, and finally to the Magic Valley by Fri/20Z. Surface winds: SE-NE 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-S 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR today. 30% chance of light snow Friday morning and accompanying IFR conditions as a narrow band of snow passes. Light SE surface winds through the day, becoming variable overnight. Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR conditions. Local IFR fog in mtn valleys Saturday and Sunday mornings. Surface winds Saturday and Sunday SE 5-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, except in highlands and the Snake Plain where gusts up to 30 kt are possible. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM

105 FXUS65 KLKN 190914 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 114 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1237 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 * Another weather system impacts the region with snow showers and breezes today. * A quiet weekend leads into another busy winter weather week next week. * Winter driving conditions will be present. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1244 AM PST Thu Feb 19 2026 The current forecast remains on track and no significant changes were required at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The final in a series of shortwaves impacting central and northern NV will make its way into the region this morning. These waves are riding the axis of a larger parent trof over the northern Rockies. Embedded in the axis is a notable jet streak in response to the tight gradient of the trof which will help produce southerly breezes today. Blowing snow is a risk thru this evening, particularly across central Nevada, where stronger winds will be present with gusts 30-35 mph. New snowfall will also be focused across central Nevada today and tonight. This will produce instances of lower visibility thru this evening. Cautious winter driving should also be exercised. Expected snowfall accumulations through Friday morning are as follows: Elko...1" Spring Creek...1" Winnemucca...1" Tonopah...2" Austin...2" Eureka...1" Ely...1" Wells...1" Wendover...T" Higher elevations and mountain passes in northern Nevada are forecast to see 4-6 inches of additional snowfall, whereas central Nevada peaks and ridges will see 6-9 inches. Beyond Thursday, an upper level ridge sets up over the Intermountain West for the weekend. The ridge will be sandwiched between the departing upper level trof and another low pressure center and associated trof poised off shore of the PacNW. Another series of shortwaves associated with this parent system is expected to impact the region next week. Current model guidance is void of run to run continuity. The first system to impact the region has been pushed from Monday into early Tuesday. Moisture availability is also a growing concern with next weeks forecast. Future model runs will need to be scrutinized to better determine timing, impacts, and potential precipitation accumulations. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for additional snowfall and breezes across the area today with the greatest impacts across central Nevada. Low confidence exists in timing and precipitation amounts associated with next weeks weather. Have opted for a blend of various short term hi-res models, the GFS, and to a lesser extent the NBM, as input for PoPs in this mornings forecast. Minor modification to NBM temperature and wind fields also warranted based on latest observations and trends. && .AVIATION... Combination of low CIGs and reduced VIS thanks to -SN and -SHSN today will produce widespread MVFR conditions with intermittent IFR conditions during periods of snowfall at the terminals today. Main push of -SN and -SHSN moves in from the west late this morning and exits to the east tonight. Southerly breezes will also be present today, primarily across central Nevada, including KTPH and KELY where gusts between 20KT and 25KT are forecast. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM PST Friday NVZ030-034>041. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92