365 FXUS66 KSEW 130337 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 837 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Weak atmospheric river will bring continued rain showers throughout today and into Friday, with the chance of a rain/snow mix early Friday morning. Upper level troughing will keep showers around the area into Saturday. A warm front will then move over the region Sunday into Monday, bringing more widespread rain and keeping the pattern active. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures have cooled to the mid and upper 30s this evening with obs and cameras showing some slushy snow falling on surfaces in the Everett area. Precip rates in northern Snohomish County are likely pulling down some colder air and thus contributing to the frozen precip type. Elsewhere, it remains mainly rain across the lowlands. Current thinking remains that accumulation at or below 500 feet will likely remain spotty and localized based on precip rates. Best window of any lowland accumulation remains between 09Z and 17Z. Outside of that, mountains will continue to get hammered with heavy snow through Friday for dicey travel across the passes. Precipitation is on track to turn more showery over the weekend before the pendulum swings the other direction for a shift toward above normal temperatures toward the early to middle portion of next week with wet conditions continuing. No forecast updates planned at this time, but we will be monitoring radar, cameras, and spotter reports closely overnight. Previous discussion follows with update to aviation portion. 27 A weak atmospheric river continues in Oregon, providing western Washington with some widespread showers across the area this afternoon. This weak atmospheric river will lift northward later this evening and into Friday morning, allowing for more moisture to funnel in the area, primarily south of Seattle, although showers will still be present across much of the CWA. A Winter Storm Warning continues for the Cascades and the Olympics as significant mountain snow continues, on the order of a couple of feet for Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass. Turning into Friday morning, the forecast gets a bit complex and complicated. Cooler air aloft will push down the snow levels downwards to 500 to 1000 feet, which would allow a rain/snow mix to develop across the region. There is usually the question whether moisture will be present, and guidance does show some moisture from the aforementioned atmospheric river still being around the area (especially in the southern half of the state). Latest guidance does suggest there could be light accumulations possible on the higher foothills, along with grassy and elevated surfaces. This is a complex situation as local surface conditions and temperatures will be critical factors in what (if any) snowfall accumulations may be present early Fri morning. Overall: you will likely see snow in the interior (particularly in Puget Sound) Friday morning in some capacity. However, ground temperatures and near surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing, which will result in highly variable surface accumulation. The places that are likely to see any sort of snow that sticks, are places on the higher foothills, which are likely around an inch or two at best. The time frame for this is generally early Fri morning, (4AM-9AM). After that, daytime heating will take over and warm everything up. Shower will decrease throughout the day, and high temps will be in the low 40s. Heavy mountain snow continuing. The same problem exists for Saturday morning, although there will be less moisture present across the area. Could see a few flakes fly, but otherwise, Saturday will be a drier day with temperatures in the mid 40s as an offshore ridge builds. Mountain snow will also have gradually subsided by Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ensembles continue to agree of a warm front will move over the offshore ridge Sunday into Monday, which would bring another round of precipitation over the area. Guidance continues to depict the ridge not being strong enough to keep an atmospheric river from the north out of our area, with lowland rain and a unsettled pattern continuing throughout midweek. A warmer air mass looks to bring up snow levels to 7000 to 8000 feet, along with high temps creeping in the upper 50s, and even lower 60s. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION...A strong upper level jet will remain over Western Washington through Friday. Precipitation will continue through tonight, before slowly sliding southwards during the day Friday. Temperatures will also cool overnight. This will allow for precipitation to transition to snow or a rain and snow mix for most terminal locations, especially across the interior. KPAE remains snow at this time due to the cooler temperatures as of 03z. Although snowfall accumulations are expected to be limited. If rates remain heavy, minor snow accumulations can be expected on paved surfaces, including snow sticking onto airport surfaces. In addition, cigs and vsbys will remain deteriorated through Friday morning with abundant surface moisture and light flow. LIFR/IFR conditions will dominate for most locations between 06z to 15z, with some improvements across northern terminals by mid Friday morning. Cigs will remain MVFR/IFR for the majority of terminals through Friday afternoon. Light E/SE winds will have a light north component into Friday morning, with winds in most locations remain below 6 kts. KSEA...Light to moderate rain through early tonight. Due to cooling temperatures, rain is expected to transition to rain/snow or snow generally after 07-09z. Snow may stick to airport surfaces if snowfall rates remain heavy enough, particularly during the 10 to 16z period. Otherwise, lingering precipitation will likely transition back to rain generally by 18z. Cigs and vsbys will remain deteriorated through Friday morning, with LIFR/IFR conditions. Cigs will slowly improve to low-end MVFR by late Friday. Light SE winds will likely become light E/NE tonight into Friday AM, remaining below 6 kts. JD && .MARINE... A stationary front will remain over the southern coastal waters through the weekend. Precipitation will continue to pass over the waters, with reduced visibilities and ceilings at times. Winds will continue to decrease through the afternoon from yesterday`s cold front that passed through. A small craft advisory remains in effect through 5 PM for the Strait of Juan de Fuca for lingering west winds over 20 kt, and the coastal waters through 11 PM for seas above 10 ft. The winds will turn northerly on Friday, with a medium chance on Saturday that gusts exceed 20 kt for the coastal waters. Seas through the weekend will drop and hold around 6 to 8 ft, further decreasing to 4 to 6 ft. A warm front will skirt the outer coastal waters Monday next week, with potential for gusty south winds for the coastal waters, and a few interior waterways. These winds are forecasted to linger into late Tuesday. Seas on Monday will rise to 10 to 12 ft, and linger at those heights through midweek. HPR && .HYDROLOGY... The Skokomish River has crested and will continue to linger in Action Stage. More rain in the forecast through Friday will keep the threat of flooding along the Skokomish Friday into Saturday. With the heaviest precipitation over the Southwest Interior there is also a threat of flooding Friday into the weekend for a few rivers in the Chehalis Basin including but not limited to the Skookumchuck, Newaukum and the Chehalis River from Grand Mound to Grays Harbor. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for those following areas. The flooding threat will ease Sunday into next week for the southern portion of the area. Atmospheric river forecasted to move inland to the north during the first part of next week. If the river ends up a little further south rivers over the northern portion of the area will bear watching the first part of next week. Felton/Mazurkiewicz && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics. Flood Watch from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics- Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

669 FXUS66 KPQR 130559 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1059 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Updated aviation discussion and hazards. .SYNOPSIS...Wet conditions persist in the short term as an Atmospheric River (AR) continues to impact the Pacific Northwest through Friday night. Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain, mountain snow (mainly WA Cascades), and locally breezy conditions. While the probability for mainstem river flooding is low, some of the more flood prone/flashier rivers, especially with headwaters in the Coast Range, have risen to Minor flood stage. Given the heavier rain rates associated with the AR, an areal flood watch remains in effect through Friday evening. From there, another weather system brushing northwestern Oregon and southwest Washington to the north late in the weekend brings additional precipitation chances, albeit much lighter. Temperatures jump well above normal Monday through the middle of the week as well. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday...Hope you brought your rain jacket or umbrella with you today, it`s been a soggy one! This afternoon radar imagery places the bulk of our precipitation north of Salem/McMinnville through the Portland metro into southwest Washington, however, compared to earlier today rainfall rates have diminished, generally between 0.02 to 0.10 in/hr. This has all been thanks to an Atmospheric River (AR) which remains draped across the Pacific Northwest through Friday/Friday night. Helping steer the moisture associated with the AR is a quasi-stationary cold frontal boundary which slowly meanders northward into the evening and overnight hours due to a ridge well off the California coast subtly amplifying. However, based on the latest model guidance this slowly northward progression will eventually stall with the axis of moisture around or just north of Portland before an upper-level shortwave racing eastward across the Pacific kicks the moisture and aforementioned frontal boundary southward back across region. It`s worth noting the latest guidance has slowed down this progression a touch compared to yesterday but the overall consensus is for the heavier rain band to completely depart by early to mid morning Saturday leaving us with light showers the rest of the day. Given the set-up mentioned above, our primary concern is prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through Friday night. Additional 48 hour rainfall totals ending Saturday morning continue to show somewhat of a range in regards to accumulation although they`ve generally narrowed in on a similar picture. Looking at the 12 HREF in Tillamook there is a 30-50% chance of seeing an additional 3 inches of rain or more through 5am Saturday, a 30-70% chance in Portland (highest east metro), a 15-30% chance around Kelso, and less than a 10% chance south of Salem. Now this needs to be taken with a little grain of salt, especially for the I-5 corridor as the HREF and most high resolution guidance still suggest a bit of a rain shadow effect within the interior valleys. However, based on the strong frontal dynamics and a few period of elevated isentropic lift associated with the incoming shortwave, there likely will be less of this effect. QPF in the forecast was adjusted to boost precipitation amounts across the interior valley areas (mainly north of Salem) to account for this effect. HREF probabilities for 5+ inches of precipitation are around 10-40% for the coast range and higher (80-100%) along the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades where precipitation will be orographically lifted. As far as snowfall is concerned, the main threat is over the south Washington Cascades where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gifford Pinchot Natl Forest and Mt Adams through early Friday morning to account for a brief surge in precipitation in the evening and the southerly track of the AR. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the north Oregon Cascades as well. The northward movement of the Atmospheric River and frontal boundary tonight likely increases snow levels for the latter area helping to diminish impacts below 5000-6000ft. That said, snow levels rises remain delayed across the south Washington Cascades where accumulations will be comparatively greater. Come Friday morning, we`ll still need to monitor Cowlitz County for an unusual "dynamic cooling" scenario which has been depicted by the NAMNEST, HRRR, and a couple other high-resolulation modeling systems the last couple of days. This is a set-up when the cooler air on the north side of the frontal boundary and high precipitation rates combine to artificially push snow levels lower, potentially near 500ft or even the surface. While there is still uncertainty as whether this will actually unfold the previously mentioned high- resolution models now keep the best chances for this to occur north of our CWA. Probabilistically, there is only ~15% chance of seeing trace amounts snow within the Cowlitz lowlands and a 10% chance to see 1+ inches. At least in the worst case scenario, the ground/pavement surface should stay warm enough to evade accumulation. -99 .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...Confidence is high only a few lingering showers remain by Saturday evening as a high pressure ridge builds in over the Pacific. This ridge prevails through Sunday and will have a significant impact on what happens early next week. Models show yet another Atmospheric River moving in towards northwestern Oregon and southwest Washington the second half of Sunday into Monday however most ensembles maintain a northerly trajectory. If this ridge of high pressure really amplifies, it will shunt the system to our north and we would maintain drier and much warmer conditions than forecast. However, the primary solution is for the jet stream and upper-level dynamics to overpower the ridge allowing the southern portion of the AR to clip the region. Temperatures will rise as the warm air moves in from the south from this point into early next week. There continues to be some uncertainty due to the potential for this second AR, but right now we are seeing high temperatures well above normal in the upper 60s for inland sites, and near 60 along the coast. In fact, for highs on Tuesday, there is a 10% chance of a temperature around 78 deg F in Eugene and in the 70s along the coast. If we see temperatures this high, then snowmelt in the Cascades is probable. Better chances (50-80%) for light rain then return towards the middle/end of next week. -99/27 && .AVIATION...Conditions vary over the airspace as an atmospheric river continues to impact the region. Along the coast, IFR/LIFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist through the TAF period. Inland conditions are split north to south. Locations in the northern Willamette Valley are generally MVFR/IFR as the main stream of moisture remains concentrated over SW WA and far NW OR while locations south of KUAO/KSLE are mainly VFR or MVFR. Expecting the moisture stream to begin dropping south which will bring higher probabilities of MVFR conditions to the central Willamette Valley after 10z. Southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt expected through much of the TAF period. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR or lower conditions expected to persist through much of the TAF period as an atmospheric river continues to impact the region. Southwesterly winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt expected through much of the TAF period. -19 && .MARINE...Seas and winds have weakened this afternoon. Winds will strengthen tonight for the waters south of Cape Falcon OR, with gusts around around 21 kt. These increased winds will continue through Saturday, with a shift from southwesterly to northerly Saturday morning. Seas currently around 9 to 11 ft will slowly ease through today, finally dropping well below 10 ft by late Friday. With currently forecasted sea heights and periods, the Small Craft Advisory for all waters has been extended until 5 PM Friday. High pressure builds over the waters on Saturday and will persist through at least Sunday. May see some periods of wind gusts up to 25 kt, but will be short-lived and isolated. Little to no impactful marine weather conditions are expected next week. ~12 && .HYDROLOGY...Steady moderate rainfall continues across much of the region to the north of OR-22 (Pacific City-Salem-Detroit). Observed rainfall in the last 36 hours has reached 4-7 inches in the northern and central Oregon Coast Range and northern Oregon and southern Washington Cascades. At lower elevations along the coast, 2-4 inches has fallen from Lincoln County north through Clatsop County, while inland along the I-5 corridor, 1.5-2.5 inches has been observed from Salem north through the Cowlitz Valley. These rainfall totals have caused area rivers to rapidly rise through today, although lower rainfall rates of 0.1" or less in the last six hours have seen those same rivers crest and begin falling, or at least cease rising. The ongoing atmospheric river is expected to lift northward tonight as weak area of low pressure slides east-northeastward along the nearly stationary frontal boundary, which will extend the period of lighter rainfall rates and allow any remaining floodwaters to recede. As the weak low moves onshore somewhere near the mouth of the Columbia River, the front will again push south on its backside, leading to an additional period of elevated rainfall rates from Friday morning into Friday night. The front will then exit southward on Saturday allowing the region to trend much drier. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected from 5 AM Friday through 5 AM Saturday, with the highest amounts in areas of terrain and lower totals within inland valleys. There is a 10% chance that the Coast Range and Cascades see as much as 3-5 inches of additional rainfall. As the next round of heavy rainfall moves overhead on Friday, both further river flooding as well as flooding of urban, low-lying, or other poor-drainiage areas remain possible. Small creeks and streams draining urban or suburban areas will remain highly sensitive to this additional rainfall as saturated ground allows the majority of rain to immediately run off into waterways which remain elevated. The Flood Watch in effect from Salem northward into southwestern Washington has therefore been extended through Saturday afternoon as area rivers, creeks, and streams continue to respond to the rainfall, and additional river or areal flood warning may need to be issued as rainfall and river level observations are made through the next 24 to 48 hours. Interested parties should continue to monitor the latest river forecasts at www.water.noaa.gov as updates to forecast rainfall may dramatically affect forecast river levels. As always, the majority of flood deaths occur in cars, and drivers should never attempt to cross a flooded roadway. Please heed any road closures posted by local authorities as floodwaters recede. A hearty thanks goes out to weather spotters who report observed precipitation and any flooding impacts in their local area. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

402 FXUS66 KMFR 130533 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1033 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated aviation and marine discussions. && .AVIATION...13/06Z TAFs...Onshore flow near the coast (and at North Bend) will maintain cloudier conditions there with MVFR ceilings and local IFR/LIFR (Brookings). There can also be some light rain/drizzle at times. Some clouds will also prevail across the rest of northern Curry, Coos and Douglas counties (as far east as the Cascades north of Mt McLoughlin) with a mix of VFR/MVFR -- this affects Roseburg as well. Some areas of higher terrain could also be obscured. Hi-res guidance is showing a little cloudiness trying to bank up against the Siskiyous tonight, and while any ceilings probably remain VFR, there is about a 20-30% chance of an MVFR ceiling at Medford early Friday morning. The rest of the area will be VFR through Friday evening. Locally breezy winds, especially along the coast and over the East Side die down this evening, then re-surface Friday afternoon. The frontal system that has been to our north for several days will finally press southward Friday night into Saturday with periods of rain, high elevation snow and reduced ceilings, especially from the Cascades/Siskiyous north and west. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Thursday, March 12, 2026...A front to the north of the area tonight will bring another round of gusty south to southwest winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco on Friday. The front will move through from north to south Friday night with a wind shift to northerly for all areas by Saturday. While winds and seas will subside a bit across the far north, conditions are likely to become hazardous to small craft for all areas south of Cape Arago Saturday into Saturday night. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 459 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026/ DISCUSSION...Uodated aviation discussion. AVIATION...13/00Z TAFs...Onshore flow near the coast (and at North Bend) will maintain cloudier conditions there with MVFR ceilings and local IFR/LIFR (Brookings). There can also be some light rain/drizzle from the marine layer at times. Some clouds will also prevail across the rest of northern Curry, Coos and Douglas counties (as far east as the Cascades north of Mt McLoughlin) with a mix of VFR/MVFR -- this affects Roseburg as well. Some areas of higher terrain could also be obscured. Hi-res guidance is showing a little cloudiness trying to bank up against the Siskiyous tonight, and while any ceilings probably remain VFR, there is about a 20-30% chance of an MVFR ceiling at Medford early Friday morning. The rest of the area will be VFR through Friday evening. Locally breezy winds, especially along the coast and over the East Side die down this evening, then re-surface Friday afternoon. -Spilde PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 202 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026/ DISCUSSION...Seasonal temperatures across the area and elevated wind over terrain continue this afternoon. Westerly flow aloft is keeping moisture moving onto the coast, bringing intermittent activity. Remote observations indicate some parts of Douglas County have seen around half an inch of rainfall in the past 24 hours, but other coast and coast-adjacent areas have seen less than one tenth of an inch. This general pattern looks to stay in place through Friday as well. On Saturday morning, a shortwave trough will pass to the north of the area. This will push precipitation chances inland for areas west of the Cascades, although rainfall in Siskiyou County looks to be limited to western terrain. Curry County and the Cascades may see a quarter to half and inch of rain, with the higher amounts limited to elevated terrain. Snow levels of 5500 to 6500 feet will limit snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines in the Cascades. Precipitation dissipates into the afternoon. As the shortwave continues traveling to the east, gusty winds are expected in Lake County. The highest gusts may reach 45 to 50 mph, supporting a Wind Advisory on Saturday afternoon into the evening. Please see NPWMFR for more information. On Sunday, the Pacific ridge looks to strengthen and is expected to guide the weather through the week ahead. Daytime highs may reach 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages across the area. For coastal areas, temperatures in the mid to high 60s are expected. Oregon valleys and basins on either side of the Cascades could see mid to high 70s. Low-lying areas in Siskiyou and Modoc counties could reach the low 80s. Considering NBM probabilistic guidance, Alturas has a 50-60% chance to exceed 80 degrees from Tuesday through Friday, while Montague and Medford have a 10-20% chance in that timeframe. Temperatures could cool into next weekend. -TAD AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... KOTH will likely (50%-70%) remain in MVFR conditions throughout the valid TAF cycle. KOTH will also see intermittent showers through this cycle, especially overnight when chances (50%-60%) are the greatest. KRBG will also see intermittent MVFR conditions early today (improving conditions later today) and then MVFR returns again overnight, but will likely miss out on the shower activity. KMFR will likely (70%) remain in VFR through this cycle, with KLMT even more likely (90%) to remain in VFR through this cycle. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Thursday, March 12, 2026...Gusty south to southwest winds and steep to very steep seas are expected today north of Cape Blanco with the strongest winds and steepest seas north of the Umpqua River bar. While conditions improve briefly this evening, a front will move southward and could bring another period of gusty southwest winds and steep seas Friday and Friday night followed by a wind shift to northerly by Saturday. Expect showers across the waters on Saturday, but lightning/thunderstorms are not expected. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ031. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370. && $$

991 FXUS66 KEKA 130819 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 119 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Coastal drizzle is possible very late today and into Saturday for Humboldt, with some light rainfall over Del Norte. More significant warming will begin late this weekend and next week. && .DISCUSSION...A front is approaching Northwest California. This boundary is expected to weaken and drift towards Del Norte County overnight tonight and into Saturday. This will increase cloud cover over the region and perhaps bring light rain to Del Norte County and light rain/drizzle to northern Humboldt County. Precipitation will move into the region very late tonight and persist into late Saturday morning/early afternoon. Currently, looking at NBM 24 hour probabilities of over 0.1 inches accumulation (5pm Friday 3/13 to 5pm Saturday 3/14): Del Norte County has about an 85 to 95 percent chance; northern Humboldt County has about a 50 to 70 percent chance with higher chances along the coast from about Cape Mendocino and north. More recent NBM runs even have about a 25 to 45 percent chance for 0.5 inches or more for Del Norte County in 24 hours over the same time period (5pm Friday 3/13 to 5pm Saturday 3/14). Generally, a dominant ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend and into next week. There is high confidence the ridge will begin to greatly amplify through the end of the weekend. Near record high temperatures will be possible with some of the warmest valleys in Mendocino and southern Lake possibly approaching 90 degrees by early next week. As of now, the warmest days will most likely be Monday and Tuesday. These temperatures will bring some Minor level HeatRisk, with perhaps very localized Moderate levels for far southern Lake County. Most interior valleys could see temperatures in the 80s, while coastal areas could see high temperatures in the mid/high 60s to low 70s through that period. && .AVIATION...Zonal flow continues to the north of the area and this has shifted flow onshore bringing some stratus to the coastal areas and up the near coastal river valleys. This is expected to generally be MVFR, but there may be a few local areas of IFR conditions. This morning CIGS are expected to lift and become VFR. Friday afternoon a weak front starts to approach the area bringing some lower clouds first to Crescent City and then farther south to ACV. The tricky part of this is the timing. The HREF is showing a 50 percent probability of CIGS below 3000 feet by 22Z at KCEC, but not until 4 to 6 hours later at KACV. Confidence grows overnight that CIGS will continue to lower and some light rain is expected by early Saturday morning. These clouds are expected to gradually make it south to the Mendocino coast as well. Areas farther inland, including KUKI, are expected to remain VFR through Friday night. MKK && .MARINE...A stationary front that remains just north of the area is impacting the area. North of Cape Mendocino the winds are fairly light and there may be some local areas of west to southwest winds. Northerly winds remain breezy south of Cape Mendocino. These are generally around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. This is generating some 4 to 6 foot wind driven waves. Currently there is also a northwest swell around 6 to 8 feet at 11 seconds moving through the area. A small long period southerly swell is moving through this morning and is to continue over the next several days. This pattern is expected to continue through Friday night. Saturday a final weak frontal boundary moves by the area and high pressure starts to build into the again. Northerly winds are expected to rapidly increase behind the front in the northern waters. Current models are putting this wind increase at some point during the morning hours of Saturday, but this will be further refined in the next several forecasts. These are expected to peak around 20 to 25 kt Saturday night and Sunday morning and then start to diminish again next week. At this point any gales look to be isolated to downwind of the CAPEs, but this will need to be watched as well. Monday winds are expected to diminish north of Cape Mendocino once again to around 5 to 15 kt, but remain around 15 to 20 south of the Cape. Tuesday and Wednesday winds are expected to gradually diminish across the area. At this point it looks like Wednesday will have the lightest winds of the week. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

784 FXUS66 KMTR 130859 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 159 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 - Above normal temperatures and minor HeatRisk continue through Saturday - A sharp warm-up Sunday through Monday will kick off an early season heat wave with record breaking temperatures and moderate HeatRisk next week - Elevated potential for grass fires due to warm and dry conditions and periods of moderate offshore winds next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 (Today and tonight) Cirrus clouds are moving over the CA coast associated with a sharp upper level trough over the Eastern Pacific. This feature is producing southerly winds that are pumping upper level moisture from the tropics to the West Coast. These clouds will likely remain trough the day as the trough slowly weakens and meanders a little closer towards the coast. This will help moderate the temperatures today, but the moderate strength upper level ridge will keep max temperatures similar to yesterday and around 10-15 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Saturday`s temperatures will be similar to Friday, but for a different reason. The high clouds will clear, but a very weak disturbance will take a quick bite out of the ridge. 500mb heights are expected to drop from around 5850m on Friday to around 5770m on Saturday morning. That`s still well above normal (5650m) for this time of year. The ridge starts to rebuild Saturday afternoon while surface high pressure builds over the northern Rockies causing the winds to veer offshore. This upper level ridge will continue to build through Tuesday, eventually becoming as strong as we ever seen in March. Some high clouds are likely to return Sunday before clear skies and unfiltered heat moves in for the peak of the heat wave starting Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look like the hottest days before the ridge axis moves through. This will cause the temperatures to drop a couple degrees, but the heat wave will persist through the workweek. More noticeable relief will have to wait until the weekend, but temperatures may not return to normal for the rest of the month. The guidance on the strength of this heat wave is remarkable. I`m going to cover it in detail here, but the bottom line is that I audibly gasped when I saw the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for maximum temperatures next week. I have never seen it anywhere near this aggressive with bright red painted across the state. That means the ECMWF ensemble members are showing a 99-100% chance of exceeding the maximum values of M-Climate (20-year database). The upper level support strongly points record breaking heat. There is a 75% chance that the 500mb height will break 5900m Monday evening (March record: 5885m). There is also a 75% chance the 850mb temp will break 20C Tuesday - Wednesday (March record: 19.2C). The 250 mb height is very likely to set a monthly record as well. All of this upper level support, combined with offshore winds, creates the perfect recipe for record breaking heat. As such, we expect a slew of daily records to be broken, and several monthly records are likely to go down as well. One final note on the upper level statistics before the hype train runs off the rails; these numbers are very high for March (near the lowest heights climatologically), but would be typical for early August. As such, expect next week to feel like early August, just without the marine layer. So what does this mean for you? Temperatures will be warm but comfortable through Saturday with mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s along the coast, roughly similar to what we saw on Thursday. By Sunday temperatures jump 5-10 degrees before another similar increase Monday. During the peak of the heat wave on Tuesday and Wednesday, most areas will be in the upper 80s and 90s, including many coastal locations thanks to the offshore winds. Temperatures will likely drop a couple degrees later in the week, but not nearly enough to end the heat wave. Much of the area will be under moderate HeatRisk. This level affects people sensitive to the heat, especially those without access to cooling and hydration. Keep in mind this is our first heat wave of the year and we haven`t seen these temperatures since September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 923 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 VFR continues this evening. 5.0 mb ACV-SFO, 2.6 mb SFO-SMX and 1.5 mb SFO-SAC pressure gradients support ongoing northwest winds. Conditions have improved over the last week for potential night-time and morning coastal stratus/fog; satellite shows the leading edge of stratus moving southward passing by Point Reyes. 06z KHAF, KOAK and KMRY TAFs advertise stratus LIFR-IFR ceilings tonight and Friday morning. Inland terminals continue with VFR. High clouds are forecast to increase during the 06z TAFs otherwise coastal stratus/fog is likely to mix out by late Friday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind near 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight then increasing to near 15 knots Friday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through mid to late evening, then increasing probability of patchy stratus and/or fog. Conditions improving to VFR by late Friday morning. Stratus /IFR/ returns Friday night and Saturday morning. Northwest winds near 10 knots decreasing and becoming light southeast tonight and Friday morning. Winds westerly near 10 knots Friday afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 845 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the waters. Winds will eventually increase for the near shore zones by late Friday. The stronger winds will result in locally hazardous conditions. Winds and seas ease into the next work week. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 614 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th. Location Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Santa Rosa 88 in 2004 91 in 2004 87 in 1996 84 in 2010 San Rafael 83 in 1972 87 in 1972 84 in 1972 80 in 1996 Kentfield 85 in 2004 86 in 2004 87 in 1914 89 in 1914 Napa 86 in 2004 88 in 2004 92 in 1914 87 in 1914 Richmond 85 in 2004 84 in 1972 83 in 2004 78 in 1996 Livermore 83 in 1972 88 in 1972 87 in 1972 86 in 2004 San Francisco 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 85 in 1914 86 in 1914 SFO Airport 81 in 2004 82 in 2004 82 in 2004 77 in 2004 Redwood City 84 in 2004 84 in 2004 85 in 2004 84 in 2004 Half Moon Bay 74 in 1974 78 in 1972 83 in 2004 75 in 1978 Oakland Museum 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 85 in 2004 81 in 2004 San Jose 82 in 2004 85 in 1914 88 in 1914 87 in 1914 Salinas Airport 83 in 1972 87 in 2004 87 in 2004 84 in 1960 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

805 FXUS66 KOTX 130837 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 137 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rain over the Palouse into Lewiston-Clarkston Valley and Camas Prairie will increase the risk of small stream flooding. - Potential for heavy wet snow possible in the valleys of northeast Washington into the Northern Panhandle for Friday morning. This may lead to impacts to the Friday morning commute. - Moderate to heavy mountain snow this week over the Cascades and North Idaho mountain passes. && .SYNOPSIS... A wet weather system will be situated over the Inland Northwest through Friday. Moderate to heavy precipitation with rain and a mix of rain and snow in the valleys. Rain over the Palouse into the southern Idaho Panhandle will lead to rises on rivers and small streams. A transition to snow for northern valleys in northeast Washington into the Northern Panhandle may lead to travel impacts in the valleys Friday morning. Drier and breezy over the weekend and warming above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday: Now that the winds have subsided, weather impacts continue across the Inland NW though the focus has shifted to a mix of winter weather and hydrology. Yesterday`s cold front ushered in cooler air into the region. The frontal boundary stalled over northern Oregon and is now lifting back northward with a plume of subtropical draped along it. This is resulting in heavy snow for the Cascade Crest and Central Panhandle Mountains and mix of light to moderate snow for the lowlands generally along and north of a line from just south of Lake Coeur D Alene to Wenatchee. This will result in a slick Friday morning commute for folks across North Idaho, Northeastern WA, and North-Central WA including the Highway 2 corridor from Wenatchee to Spokane and I-90 roughly from Tyler to Lookout Pass. Winter weather advisories have been issued and for most of these areas where lowland snowfall amounts will be on the order of 2+ inches. One area that has higher probabilities for 4+ inches will be across northeastern Whitman-Southern Spokane-Benewah-Kootenai Counties where the combination of forcing/moisture influx will be maximized and result in several hours of moderate snow. Some of the hi-res models produce as much as 7 or more inches in these local areas. Temperatures in this event are marginal (32-34F) which made this event a challenge to forecast but given the intensities we are observing, confidence has increased for impacts to roads and we are already witnessing this on some cams such as Spangle, WA. Given the location of the stalled frontal boundary closer to Highway 2, snow amounts going northward into the northern mountain valleys will be lighter 1-3" though impacts are still anticipated for the Friday morning commute. With the calendar reading March 13th and marginal temperatures, impacts to travel through the lowlands will be limited to the morning hours with mainly wet roads by midday. South of the frontal boundary, temperatures are warmer and precipitation is mainly falling as rain below 3000 feet. Moderate rains will fall across the lower Palouse, foothills of the Blue Mountains, and Camas Prairie with increasing concerns for flooding and rockslides. Aerial flood watches are in effect to address these concerns. Point flood watches are also out for the Palouse River at Potlatch and Paradise Creek in Moscow. The national water model does indicate the potential for several smaller tributaries to reach bankfull or potentially flood. Rainfall amounts will be on the order of 1-3 inches. Saturday-Sunday: High pressure will amplify off the coast and a shortwave will drop down the eastern flank through the Inland NW. This will shove the subtropical moisture south of the region bringing cooling and drying. A robust surface low will spin up in southwestern Montana and slowly track through Wyoming. This will result in gusty north to northwesterly winds across the Inland NW of 15-25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. Locally stronger wind gusts near 40-45 mph are expected over the Camas Prairie, Blue Mountains, Waterville Plateau, and along the East Slopes of the Cascades. Mainly ridgelines but a few of the aligned drainages will be susceptible to gusts mixing down. Moisture wrapping around the backside of the low will bring snow showers through the Idaho Panhandle on Saturday, otherwise the start of the weekend is looking dry for the Inland NW. By Sunday, the ridge begins to expand inland ushering a warm front through the region. Moisture draped over the ridge and along the warm front will bring increasing chances for light precipitation mainly in the form of light snow given the antecedent cooling and drying from Saturday. Snow amounts will be very light with minimal impacts. Monday-Thursday: There is strong agreement amongst the ensemble clusters of an abnormally strong upper-level ridge setting up over the Western US through this period. There is also good agreement for an atmospheric river to run up the western flank of the ridge. There is high confidence for a warming trend across the region. What comes with lower confidence is the exact amplification of the ridge along the Canadian Border. 70% of the clusters indicate the ridge will be flat enough for this moisture to stream across the northern Cascades delivering moderate QPF. 30% of the clusters have a more amplified ridge and nearly a third of the QPF. This raises concern for warm and wet conditions along the Cascade Crest not only leading to increased snow melt over time but increased runoff into the headwaters of the river basins into the East Slopes including the Stehekin River. This will need to be monitored closely for the next round of hydrology concerns heading into next week. Temperatures in the lowlands are forecast to warm into the 60s Tuesday-Thursday. /sb && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: A moisture laden frontal boundary with an influx of subtropical moisture is slowly lifting northward with widespread precipitation developing. This has and will continue to result in top down moistening with high probabilities (70-80%) for MVFR/IFR conditions. The antecedent air mass north of I-90 and particularly along Highway 2 northward is cold enough for snow. Hi-res models have increased snow amounts for GEG-COE varying from 2-4 inches however this comes with surface temperatures of 33-34F which leads to lower confidence for accumulations on runways. When precipitaiton intensities reach moderate, slushy accumulations are expected even with temperatures of 33F and there is moderate confidence for this to develop at times 9-14Z. Precipitation type favors more rain vs snow at PUW this evening with winds 1000-2000 ft AGL around 30-35kts until 11z leading to marginal LLWS. Expect the band of moisture to stall over the Inland NW through 22z Friday then begin to sag back south 22-06z with mainly EAT, MWH, OMK, and Colville experiencing drier conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for IFR conditions to develop with precipitation tonight KEAT/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW airport terminals. Confidence remains low for precipitation type at EAT/MWH. Moderate confidence for wet snow accum at GEG/COE, low confidence at SFF/PUW. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 42 30 43 24 42 34 / 90 60 40 0 10 50 Coeur d`Alene 41 31 43 21 41 32 / 100 80 70 10 20 70 Pullman 37 31 40 25 41 34 / 100 100 80 20 10 60 Lewiston 47 38 49 29 47 39 / 100 100 80 20 0 50 Colville 45 25 45 21 43 29 / 70 30 30 0 30 60 Sandpoint 40 29 40 20 39 31 / 90 60 80 20 30 70 Kellogg 38 32 37 18 39 32 / 100 90 90 40 30 70 Moses Lake 49 30 48 28 46 34 / 80 50 10 0 10 20 Wenatchee 46 29 43 28 43 34 / 90 50 10 0 20 40 Omak 47 27 47 26 43 33 / 60 10 10 0 20 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PDT today for Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau. Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains-Washington Palouse. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central Chelan County-Washington Palouse. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Western Chelan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PDT today for Coeur d`Alene Area. Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Central Panhandle Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Idaho Palouse. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$

953 FXUS66 KPDT 130526 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1026 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Heavy snow Thursday night into Friday morning for the East Slopes of the WA Cascades. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY 2. Heavy snow for the Northern Blue Mountains WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET 3. Breezy winds will continue over the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and satellite show the significant rain shadowing along the OR Cascades keeping central and north central OR dry. However, the WA Cascades are seeing returns as the atmospheric river and upper level cold front continuing to push in from the west- northwest. Radar also shows returns over the northern Blue Mountains as the AR continues to push across the WA portion of the region. CW3E shows firm agreement that the axis of the AR will continue to traverse across the region through Friday night before essentially dying out. An AR will continue to push IVT values of 250-500 kg/m/s into the region through Friday, resulting in persistent moderate to locally heavy precipitation rates across the Cascade crest and Northern Blues. Snow levels have hit the peak and NBM shows snow levels to begin to decrease through the rest of the day. Ground observations show a clear line of temperature difference as the cold front begins to already push over the Cascades. This cold air will continue to bring snow levels down and turn the precipitation from a wintery mix to snow. NBM raw ensembles show 70-90% probabilities that another 1 to 2 feet of snow will accumulate over the next 24 to 48 hours over the WA Cascades. Current web cams along the Blues show there to be rain falling currently along the I-84 corridor but snow falling at the higher elevations like Tollgate. Ground temperatures along the I-84 corridor are still above freezing but are expected to continue to decrease once the cold front passes later this evening. NBM shows snow levels along the Blues to reach below 4000 feet. NBM raw ensembles show 60-80% probabilities of seeing over 6 inches of snow accumulations through Friday morning. Winds will also remain elevated through the weekend as zonal flow aloft takes over. Sustained west winds of 10-15 mph are expected with 35 mph gusts. There will be localized areas that will see gusts to 35 mph, but those are mainly along the ridgetops and some higher elevations such as the Simcoe Highlands of Klickitat and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands. Confidence in the winds remaining through the weekend is high (70-90% confidence). After the weekend, AR CW3E ensembles are in relatively firm agreement that the leading edge of an upper level ridge will traverse into the PacNW. This will bring warming conditions to the region and increase snow levels drastically. CW3E also shows firm ensembles agreement that another, but weaker, AR will roam around the axis of the ridge bringing more precipitation. Precipitation will begin as rain/snow before transitioning to mostly rain. This rain on snow plus warming temperatures will bring rises to some area rivers. For more information see the hydrologic outlook. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Deteriorating ceilings in expanding precipitation is anticipated overnight and into midday Friday. VFR ceilings will drop into the MVFR range in rain showers by 12-15z at YKM/DLS/PDT. A few locations could see those levels dip to around the IFR category of 1000ft between 12z and 18z (PSC/ALW). Look for wind shear in the lowest 2000 ft up to 45kt near the RDM, DLS and PDT overnight. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 42 54 38 48 / 80 80 90 60 ALW 42 51 37 48 / 90 100 100 70 PSC 41 52 38 54 / 80 80 80 30 YKM 36 53 30 49 / 80 80 70 10 HRI 43 56 40 53 / 80 80 80 30 ELN 33 43 29 42 / 80 80 60 20 RDM 38 58 38 50 / 20 20 50 30 LGD 43 56 40 47 / 90 80 100 90 GCD 43 58 42 48 / 50 30 70 80 DLS 43 59 39 52 / 90 90 90 30 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for WAZ030-523. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for ORZ502. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...71

900 FXUS65 KREV 130850 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 150 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably mild and dry through the weekend, then slight cooling and breezy winds Sat-Sun with a weak cold front. * Record temperatures are expected for much of next week as a remarkably strong area of high pressure develops over the West. * Longer range outlooks strongly favor dry and warm conditions going through at least the third week of March. && .DISCUSSION... Unseasonably mild and dry weather continues through the weekend with high temperatures this afternoon once again expected to reach nearly 15F above average with mid-70s across W.Nevada and mid 60s for Sierra valleys. However, temperatures will cool 3-6 degrees on Saturday and Sunday as cold front brushes across northern Nevada. Breezy northwest winds will accompany the front with gusts of 20-30 mph mainly north of I-80 Saturday afternoon before weakening and becoming northeast to east by Sunday. Only a 15-20% chance for light showers across the Surprise Valley in E.Modoc Saturday afternoon. The main story then turns to the very high likelihood of record temperatures through much of next week as a remarkably strong upper-level ridge builds across the West. W.Nevada valleys will warm into the low-mid 80s with Sierra valleys seeing low-mid 70s. These high temperatures are more typical of early to mid June or about 20-25F above average for mid-March. Daily high temperatures will likely be broken during the Monday- Saturday timeframe next week with Tuesday-Thursday being targeted as the warmest days of the week. Our current forecasted high temperatures Tuesday-Thursday for Reno would break the all-time record for the warmest March day on record which is currently 83F which was set on March 31, 1966. Overall multiple daily records and consecutive 80 degree day records will all be on the table next week with this unprecedented ridge set-up. Aside from the warmth, there are no real prospects for precipitation in the next 7-10 days. Fuentes && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through next week with breezy winds each afternoon into the weekend. Winds peak on Saturday with N/NW gusts of 20-25 kts. For next week, well above normal temperatures will likely present density altitude concerns for western Nevada terminals. -Salas/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

504 FXUS66 KSTO 122017 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 117 PM PDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well-above normal temperatures expected through next week with mainly Minor HeatRisk && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Friday... Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery illustrates sunny skies across interior northern California on this Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to trend above normal today and over the next several days as upper level ridging remains the primary synoptic feature influencing the region`s weather. Highs today and Friday are forecast to be in the 70s to 80 in the Valley and foothills, and 60s to 70s in the mountains. Minor HeatRisk is also forecast mainly for the Valley and foothills. Relative humidity will be trending low as well, especially over the ridges and higher terrain. ...Saturday-Wednesday... The upper level pattern will feature the ridge flattening slightly over the weekend as a trough drops down to the east. This will allow for some increased northerly flow behind it with gusts of 15 to 20 mph at times from Saturday into Sunday. The ridge will then build back in and strengthen. This will allow for the continued rise in temperatures into next week. There is an impressive EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) signal for above normal temperatures especially next week. Forecast highs are currently in the 60s-80s across the area Saturday, rising to the 70s to potentially around the low 90s next week. Widespread Minor HeatRisk is forecast for interior NorCal with some isolated Moderate HeatRisk in the Delta and Valley. Area waterways are still running cold from snowmelt. Be sure to plan ahead for the warmer weather and take the necessary precautions near waterways. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with winds around 5-10kts going light and variable this evening and overnight. Slight chance of lowered visibility from haze/mist over the eastern Sacramento Valley from 12z to 17z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

317 FXUS65 KMSO 122116 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 316 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Snow levels lowering into the valleys tonight causing wintry travel, especially along and north of Interstate 90. - Valleys in north central Idaho (Grangeville to Elk City) will remain in moderate to heavy rain, elevating the risk for rockfalls, snow sloughing, and minor river rises. - An Arctic boundary moving into western Montana(70% chance) Saturday evening will tap into instability to trigger intense bands of snow between Kalispell to Missoula/along I-90/Hwy200. With wet roads from daytime melting, a rapid freeze-up and slick roads are possible. The cold front responsible for this morning`s damaging winds has exited the region, though strong flow aloft continues to produce mountain ridge gusts of 40 to 60 mph. While lingering showers may briefly transport higher momentum to valley floors, the threat of widespread damaging winds has diminished, except for Lemhi County where strong winds will persist through early evening. Attention shifts to an anomalous atmospheric river stalled from the WA/OR border into west-central Montana. The primary forecast challenge remains snow levels; heavy precipitation rates are expected to drive snow levels below model guidance via top-down cooling. Valleys in northwest Montana are likely to see several inches of accumulation by morning. Along the Interstate 90 corridor, including Missoula, the forecast is more nuanced. A slight lowering of snow levels tonight could result in 1 to 4 inches of heavy, wet snow for Sanders, Mineral, Missoula, Granite, and Powell counties. Given the potential for slushy accumulations, winter weather advisories may be required. Conversely, further south near Grangeville and Elk City, precipitation will remain predominantly rain, maintaining an elevated risk for rockfalls and snow sloughing. A shortwave trough will transit the region on Saturday morning, eroding the subtropical moisture plume and introducing gusty post- frontal winds up to 35 mph. As the atmosphere becomes highly unstable by Saturday afternoon, snow and graupel showers will develop. Of significant concern is an Arctic boundary projected to plunge south from Alberta Saturday evening (70% probability). This front will likely trigger intense snow bands between Kalispell and Missoula and eastward toward the Continental Divide. Rapidly falling temperatures on wet roads may create a high risk for flash freeze conditions and dangerous travel before activity wanes by midnight. Sunday provides a brief, cold reprieve before overrunning moisture from a British Columbia-bound atmospheric river reaches the region Sunday night. This warm-frontal passage will likely reintroduce wintry travel impacts to the mountains and northern valleys. Looking ahead to next week, ensemble guidance strongly favors the building of a high-amplitude ridge. Despite occasional "dirty" ridge cloud cover, a significant warming trend is expected, with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION...Gusty westerly winds will persist across the Northern Rockies this afternoon into the evening, but the threat of damaging winds has subsided. The atmospheric river will continue to persist over the Northern Rockies through Saturday. The bulk of the moisture will be streaming over north central Idaho into west central Montana keeping KMSO and KHRF with low clouds and light precipitation. Snow levels are going to continue to be the biggest issue. KGPI will most likely remain all snow for any periods of precipitation, causing IFR conditions when a shower goes over. The precipitation type for KMSO and KHRF will be transitioning from rain to snow over the next 24 hours. The threat of precipitation at KSMN and KBTM will be less, but any precipitation that does occur is expected to be snow. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Saturday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. ID...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains. High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

729 FXUS65 KBOI 130451 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1051 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds this afternoon in south-central Idaho, including the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. - Valley rain and mountain snow generally above 6000-7000 feet in Baker County, OR and the Central ID Mountains through early Sunday. - Strong wind with widespread precipitation and low chance of a stray thunderstorm on Saturday along and behind a cold front. - Record to near record high temperatures over much of the region next Tuesday through at least Thursday. Monthly record highs for March will also be threatened in some locations. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 227 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026 Elevated winds are occurring in south central Idaho, with Twin Falls and Jerome gusting to 40 mph this afternoon. Gusts will continue, with periods of gusts up to 45 mph, until sunset. The atmospheric river to our north is transporting significant moisture over northern Valley County, with mountain snow showers and valley rain expected to continue through the short term period. Rainfall will be highest in mountain zones northeast of the Snake River Valley, with up to one inch of liquid equivalent over the highest terrain by Saturday. Snowfall totals by late Saturday will range from a dusting to 2 inches over mountain valleys, with an additional 8 to 12 inches of wet snow over 6000-7000 feet. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday, bringing much colder temperatures, a brief switch to snow for mountain valley floors, and very strong winds. There is a low chance (<10%) that this cold front could bring embedded convection, although forecast guidance shows minimal instability along and ahead of the front. If any of these stronger showers or thunderstorms form, isolated gusts up to 60 mph could occur.The high wind watch has been trimmed from this morning`s package to cover the Snake Plain and southeast Oregon, with ID mountain zones generally being sheltered from the strongest wind gusts thanks to the terrain. Ridgetops will still see strong winds, but valley winds are anticipated to be much lower in the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin, and West Central-Boise Mountain zones. Sustained winds in the areas with a high wind watch are anticipated to reach 30-40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 227 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026 Sunday will be cool on the backside of an upper level trough. Highs will be around 5 degrees below normal with mostly dry conditions. However, there will be a 30-60% chance of rain and snow in the mountains late Sunday into early Monday as the fringe of an atmospheric river rotates around an upper level ridge and into northern Idaho. Snow levels will be low (3-5kft MSL), supporting the potential for light snow accumulations in the mountains. Much of southeast Oregon, the Snake Basin, and points south should remain dry. A much warmer pattern will develop through the rest of the week as an upper level ridge along the coast migrates to the east and amplifies. After around 15 degrees of warming on Monday, high temperatures will be at or near records by Tuesday. Temperatures will rise a few more degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. Lower valleys will reach the 70s to lower 80s, which will challenge not only daily record high temperatures, but also monthly high records for March. A minimal (20%) chance of showers will exist across the northern mountains by midweek if the ridge axis moves slightly to the east, allowing limited moisture to move in under southwesterly flow aloft. Aside from breezy conditions on Monday across south- central Idaho, winds will be fairly light through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1052 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026 Generally VFR under mid to high clouds. Periods of precipitation over the central ID mountains through Friday, resulting in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions and mtn obscuration. Areas of LLWS overnight, but generally under 30 kt. Snow Levels: 6-7.5kft MSL. Surface winds: Variable up to 12 kt overnight, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Late Sat/AM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 40-55 kt. KBOI...VFR under mid to high clouds. LLWS overnight, although generally under 30 kt. Surface winds: light and variable, leaning NE overnight. Then W-NW 10-15 kt Fri/PM. Weekend Outlook...On Saturday, a cold front will bring heavier rain and snow to the central Idaho mountains, especially in the morning, with light precipitation elsewhere. Windy on Saturday along and behind the front. Precipitation decreasing Saturday night, drier on Sunday. Areas of MVFR/IFR and mountain obscuration in precipitation, otherwise VFR. Snow level lowering to 4-6kft MSL Saturday behind the front. Surface winds: W-NW 20-30 kt with gusts to 45 kt Saturday, W-NW 5-15 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for IDZ014>016-028>030. OR...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for ORZ061>063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....NF SHORT TERM...SA LONG TERM....ST

588 FXUS65 KLKN 130838 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 138 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming temperature trend with breezy to windy conditions will continue through next week. * Near record high temperatures across the region into next week. * A weak weather system clips over northern Nevada this weekend. * Strong gusty winds Saturday && .UPDATE... Issued at 135 AM PDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Forecasts of high winds Saturday and warmer temperatures next week is still on track. No changes to forecast or grids is needed at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northwesterly flow over Nevada will continue into the weekend as a long wave trough over the Great Lakes extending into the northwest keeps an upper ridge across the eastern Pacific. These systems are tightening the weather gradients overhead which is producing breezy to windy conditions over the region. Friday, warmer temperatures persist with highs in the 60s to 70s, however winds are expected to be lighter from the west with speeds up to 10-15 mph across northern Nevada, gusts as high as 20-25 mph. Saturday, models are showing the high pressure ridge over the Pacific to weaken, allowing a weak weather system to clip northern Nevada. Chances for precipitation increase up to 45-60% along the northern state border, amounts remain low at this time with areas seeing only up to 0.01 inches of rain. The main concern with this weather system is the tightening of weather gradients that will produce strong northwesterly winds across the region. Across central Nevada and Humboldt County further from the tighter pressure gradient, winds will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph prompting a Wind Advisory. Across northeastern Elko County, the pressure gradient is forecast to be much stronger as low pressure undergoes rapid intensification across Wyoming and into western Nebraska. Thus, winds will be stronger here, especially along passes and summits on I-80 and US 93 in Elko County up to 25-35 mph, with a 50-60% chance of seeing wind gusts up to 60 mph. High Wind Watch has been issued for most of northern and eastern Elko County. Sunday and into next week, the weak upper trough will push east with the high pressure ridge over the Pacific strengthening and moving across the western CONUS, leaving dry and calm weather conditions over Nevada. With the system moving in, it will also brings in unseasonably warm temperatures with 80-90% chance high temperatures will break into new records through the week, both daily and for the month of March. Models show the high pressure ridge is expected to last into next Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of a weak weather system Saturday, producing strong gusty winds, prompting a Wind Advisory and High Wind Watch. High confidence of warming temperature trends into next week with near record temperatures. Adjust wind grids in NBM 90th percentile to better reflect recent wind events. && .AVIATION... Dry with VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Breezy conditions Friday afternoon at KWMC and KEKO with SW winds around 15kts gusting to 25kts. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday NVZ030-035>038-040. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ031-033-034-039. && $$ UPDATE...99 DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...96