Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

552

FXUS63 KSGF 161137

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

637 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- After 2-4 inches of rain on Wednesday, residual flooding is

  expected to linger in portions of the Ozarks through the day,

  with an Areal Flood Warning in effect for the affected

  corridor until 1 PM. Minor flooding is also ongoing in small

  tributaries and in the Little Osage and Spring River basins.



- Scattered shower and thunderstorm development possible late

  this morning into early afternoon, especially in south-central

  Missouri. If storms can develop, there would be a chance of

  severe hail and damaging winds, but any risk would be

  conditional on the development of thunderstorms.



- Severe thunderstorms expected on Friday, with an Enhanced

  (level 3 of 5) Risk of severe weather beginning in the

  afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours into

  early Saturday morning. All modes of severe weather possible,

  but widespread damaging winds in excess of 70-80+ mph will be

  the primary severe hazard as a squall line with several bowing

  segments develops along the cold front.



- Excessive rainfall concerns through the week in areas that

  see repeated strong storms and/or training precipitation.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:

The remnants of Wednesday evening`s showers and thunderstorms

are pushing to the east, carried by the low-level jet streak. An

upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low are

lifting across the Great Lakes region; another shortwave trough

across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles early this morning will

bring modest height falls to the region into the mid-afternoon

before assimilating into the flow across the Great Lakes.

Upstream, a deepening trough with a closed low aloft is

approaching from the Pacific Northwest. Yesterday`s convection

brought 2-4" of rainfall to a corridor of the forecast area,

where flash flooding occurred and/or is still occurring, and an

Areal Flood Warning remains in effect for much of that area

until 1 PM this afternoon.



Showers & Thunderstorms Today:

It`s far from a slam dunk, but many CAMs indicate that

additional shower and thunderstorm development may occur again

this afternoon in south-central Missouri. 2500-3000 J/kg of

SBCAPE builds by 18-19Z, when the cap becomes eroded. The

ingredients for a similar setup to yesterday will all largely

come together slightly further east in the eastern Ozarks, with

the exception of an obvious forcing mechanism.



Low-level ridging slowly builds through the day, which would

imply subsidence, but the 500mb/250mb waves in the Panhandles

will lift northeast across the area through the morning and

early afternoon, with the associated vort maxes creating

divergence aloft. The last bits of convection are likely so

weak that there won`t be any residual cold pool/outflow strong

enough to trigger anything, but widespread cloud cover will exit

the area with the showers, allowing 0-3km lapse rates to

approach 8C/km as the surface warms. High temperatures this

afternoon are in the 77-83F range, and convective temperatures

around 76-78F suggest simple differential heating may be enough

to get something going. 30-40kts of bulk shear and straight

hodographs suggest that if storms do develop, conditions will be

sufficient for severe hail with splitting storms and/or

multicell clusters.



The window for these storms to develop would be relatively

short, between 18-22Z by most model consensus. By 23-00Z this

evening, the upper-level support has moved east of the area,

ending the window for severe storm development. HREF

neighborhood probabilities of severe hail have a bullseye of

5-14% in areas east of Highway 65 and south of I-44. A broader

area of 5-14% chances of severe wind remain confined to areas

east of Highway 65 but extend north of I-44 into central

Missouri, though a small bullseye of 15-29% probs of severe wind

develop in our far southeast corner (Oregon County) and extend

into northeast Arkansas. The REFS probabilities also show 5-14%

chances of severe hail and wind in south-central Missouri during

the same window (1PM - 5PM), further substantiating that the

risk exists if a storm can develop.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Friday remains on track to be an active severe weather day. The

synoptic trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest ejects

into the Central Plains and overspreads a plume of warm, dry

air (700-500mb lapse rates 8-9C/km). HREF mean SBCAPE exceeds

3000 J/kg, so ample instability will be in place by the early

afternoon for supercell development. The cold front plunges

south through the Northern Plains during the day on Friday,

which appears to keep the most volatile severe environment to

our north, but our environment will still be quite juicy for the

storms to tap into when they arrive with the cold front. An

additional, lower-confidence scenario includes discrete

supercells popping up within the warm sector ahead of the cold

frontal passage.



Expected evolution at this time appears to be a low chance for

discrete supercells across the area in the afternoon hours,

before the cold front reaches our northern edge counties in the

late afternoon/early evening hours. While supercells could

support large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds,

our primary severe risk will be with the cold frontal passage.

CAMs are in good agreement that with 50-90kts of bulk shear, the

storms that develop along the cold front will nearly immediately

turn into a line, with numerous embedded bowing segments.

Supercells ahead of the line could locally enhance sfc vorticity

as they get overtaken by the accelerating squall line, leading

to areas of increased embedded tornado potential. Several CAMs

also suggest that our northwesternmost counties will have a

short window of locally higher tornado chances around nightfall

as the low-level jet kicks in and more curved hodographs overlap

in time and space with 100+ J/kg of 0-3km CAPE ahead of the

front along the low-level theta-e gradient.



Now that we`ve gotten the tornado talk out of the way, I would

like to be clear that damaging winds are by FAR the most likely

severe hazard on Friday evening. Winds in excess of 80 mph will

be possible along the apex of any accelerating bowing segments

that develop along the front. Not everywhere should expect to

see winds that high, but wide swaths of 60+ mph winds is a

realistic expectation to set.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026



Mostly clear skies with some patches of MVFR stratus near the

Arkansas border to start the period. A few light showers have

popped up near the OK/MO border, which could briefly bring MVFR

ceilings and a brief period of light rain within the next 1-3

hours. Otherwise, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances

appear to stay east of TAF sites, though scattered convection

will be possible across the Ozarks.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Camden

LONG TERM...Camden

AVIATION...Camden