Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

042

FXUS63 KSGF 192318

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

618 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening,

  mainly east of Highway 65. Damaging winds are the most likely

  hazard with large hail and a tornado being secondary hazards.

  Additional, non severe storms will develop late tonight south

  of Springfield.



- Hot and humid conditions continue to the south of a cold front

  on today with far southwest Missouri having the best chance

  (50%) of seeing heat index values near 105 again.



- Temperatures will range from the upper 80s northeast of

  Springfield to the 90s elsewhere through the rest of the week.

  The next chance of rain (10-20%) arrives Saturday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows a compact shortwave trough moving southeast

out of Nebraska and into Kansas and Missouri. A corridor of warm

air aloft (capping) exists across most of the area ahead of a

surface front. This front was moving into Missouri along a

surface low in southeast Kansas. A warm front then stretched out

east across southern Missouri. Clouds were beginning to clear

out which is allowing that warm front to lift northeast towards

Springfield. Temps varied across the area with 70s northeast of

Springfield to the low to mid 90s southwest of Springfield.

Gusty winds were occuring near and behind the warm front with

lower dewpoints southwest of the warm front. Latest

mesoanalysis suggests that the airmass remains capped with ML

CAPE around 1500j/kg. 0-6km shear was in the 30-40kt range.



Hot Conditions: With additional heating, afternoon temps will

push the upper 90s to around 100 along and southwest of a Joplin

to Branson line. Temps will then gradually taper off to the

northeast. Heat indicies around 100-105 will likely occur in the

Heat Advisory area and no changes are planned before its

expiration this evening.



Severe Storm Potential: As we progress through the afternoon,

mid level height falls will begin to overspread the area and

will help to force convective initiation along the main surface

front across the eastern CWA. 12z HREF and REFS along with

latest HRRR trends suggest that the highest potential for storm

development will be east of Springfield after 3pm. The corridor

from Rolla to Houston to Gainesville and east is most favored.

Steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient bulk shear will

promote severe storm development. Most guidance suggests storms

will grow into one or two small clusters with damaging winds to

70mph the most likely hazard. Given the increased bulk shear,

the forecast Large Hail Parameter of 4-6 would support a few

instances of large hail to the size of golf balls, however most

instances would be less than that. The storms that develop

further north (closer to Rolla) would have the higher hail

potential, especially if storms can remain isolated. Given the

boundary in the area, there will be a low tornado potential

however it would have to take a favorable boundary interaction

for that to occur and confidence in that occuring is low.



Thunderstorms look to move out of the CWA after 8-9pm however a

low level jet will develop overnight along the Missouri/Arkansas

border. The forecast 850mb front will be across southern

Missouri therefore scattered showers and storms are likely to

develop along that boundary and then sag south into Arkansas.

These storms are not forecast to be severe however a few could

produce small hail/brief gusty winds before moving out. Rainfall

amounts with the afternoon/evening and overnight storms will

generally be one inch or less.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Hot Conditions: The area looks to remain in a northwest flow

pattern through at least the weekend, and perhaps into early

next week. A 850mb temp gradient looks to set up from southwest

to northeast across the area therefore a decent surface temp

gradient will also likely set up with the warmest temps west of

Springfield. Highs in the mid/upper 90s are likely in these

areas, especially locations where drought is increasing. Mean

dewpoints continue to come in lower during the afternoons

(middle/upper 60s) which should help with keeping heat indicies

at or below 100. The NWS Heat Risk tool shows mainly moderate

levels with some increase to major by the end of the weekend and

next week, most likely due to the prolonged heat.



Rain Chances Saturday-Monday: Rain chances currently are 20

percent or less at times over the weekend into early next week.

Ensembles have trended a little wetter at times though depending

on timing of waves moving down the northwest flow aloft. If the

ridge remains further west of the area then precip chances

would be less and more confined west of the area. Confidence is

low during this time frame and will need to pin down details a

little more with future updates.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Showers and storms will be possible near KBBG this evening, but

otherwise think precipitation will not be a concern for other

TAF sites. Fog is possible at KSGF tonight into Thursday morning,

but the site will be toward the southern extent of the fog

bank, so predictability is low.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-101>105.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Titus