Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

134

FXUS63 KSGF 061938

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

238 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below average temperatures today with patchy frost potential

  tonight, mainly in valleys and low lying areas. Warming trend

  incoming with highs in the 70s and 80s for the weekend.



- Chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) Friday afternoon/evening.

  SPC Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (Level 1 out of 5)

  with large hail the main hazard.



- Another chance for thunderstorms (40-70%) returns Saturday

  night into Sunday morning. Thunderstorm severity remains in

  question.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis continues to highlight a broad, positively tilted

upper level trough centered from Minnesota to Colorado. Surface

high pressure was sliding south into Colorado and Kansas. This

was allowing for a cooler and drier airmass to continue to

filter into the area with northerly winds. There remains some

intermittent cloud cover from both high clouds streaming in from

the southwest and a few cumulus from residual low level

moisture.



Cool Temperatures - Patchy Frost Tonight: Dewpoints should

continue to drop into the 30s this evening. As winds become

light, temps should fall off quickly into the 40s overnight. The

latest NBM continues to highlight temps falling into the middle

to upper 30s by sunrise Thursday morning. This could lead to

some patchy frost formation. The main limiting factor is cloud

cover. While winds will go very light to near calm, there will

be periods of clouds that stream through overnight, with

potentially one batch moving through near sunrise. This could

cause temps to bounce around overnight with some areas staying

closer to 40 degrees. Those with sensitive outdoor vegetation

should take proper precautions, especially areas that are more

sheltered from the wind and area valleys/low spots.



Warmer Temps Thursday: Winds look to turn southerly during the

day as the trough moves pushes east of the area. Latest HREF

data suggests mostly clear skies with the exception of areas

east of Highway 65 which may have just enough residual low

level moisture for some cumulus. Temps will likely respond back

into the 60s for highs.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night: Latest ensemble guidance

continues to suggest a positively tilted shortwave will drop

southeast into the area late in the day Friday. This will drag

a cold front into the area. Before then, gusty southwest winds

are likely and will advect in warmer temps aloft. High temps in

the 70s look likely.



The exact timing of the front is still in question however the

consensus is that it moves into the area late Friday afternoon

and sweeps through the area in the evening. Moisture quality is

somewhat in question however the latest mean dewpoint forecasts

suggest middle to potentially upper 50 dews could advect into

the western half of the area before the front arrives. The

current overlap of the greatest instability and wind shear looks

to be over the western half of the area. Given the northwest

flow aloft/positively tilted trough would suggest the potential

for long/straight hodographs which would favor a large hail

threat. The latest update from the SPC now includes a Marginal

Risk for severe thunderstorms with this frontal passage.

Continue to monitor future updates.



Thunderstorm Chances Saturday Night - Sunday: Another shortwave

will quickly drop southeast into the area by Saturday night.

This also looks to be positively tilted with another front

dropping southeast into the area. The current consensus of

timing for this front is later Saturday night which leads to

uncertainty in instability potential for any severe threat.

There is not any severe outlook for the area at this time

however the CIPS analogs and CSU ML probs do support a severe

risk just to our west across Kansas and Oklahoma. Therefore,

given the timing of both fronts, this does not look like a

washout weekend with the potential for a long period of dry

time in between rounds. Highs on Saturday could reach the upper

70s to lower 80s, especially if clouds clear sufficiently.

Sunday could be cooler with highs in the lower 70s.



Beyond Sunday, guidance continues to suggest a developing mid

level ridge across the rockies with southwest winds bringing in

warmer temperatures. There is the potential for temps to reach

the 80s area wide early next week along with precip chances

below 20 percent.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1125 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the

TAF period. Mid/high level clouds will persist through today,

with some breaks, especially in western Missouri. Winds will

remain out of the north to northeast around 10kts with a switch

to the south to southwest likely Thursday morning. Any

additional rainfall should remain south of the area.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield