Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

230

FXUS63 KSGF 281645

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for locations along and

  south of a Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line

  through 7 PM today. Heat index values around 105 to 115

  degrees are expected.



- A Heat Advisory is in effect for locations north of a Joplin

  to Springfield to Salem Missouri line through 7 PM today. Heat

  index values up to 105 degrees are possible.



- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southeast

  through portions of the area today. A few showers and storms

  will also be possible across extreme southeastern Kansas and

  far southern Missouri tonight into early Wednesday.



- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%) will

  occur at times Wednesday through Friday, before dissipating

  east on Saturday. Localized heavy rainfall is possible.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



The upper level ridge has shifted slightly back to the west

early this morning leaving the area more in the upper level

northwest flow. An upper level disturbance is currently moving

north of the upper level high across western Kansas into

southern Nebraska area this morning. Areas of showers and

thunderstorms have developed across portions of western Kansas

into southeastern Nebraska ahead of the upper level disturbance

area this morning. A weak cold front will also move south across

the area the area this afternoon and evening.



The upper level disturbance will continue to move southeast and

across the area later this morning into this evening. There

could be some isolated showers/few rumbles of thunder that move

out ahead of the main disturbance into portions of the northern

and western areas early this morning but this activity will be

moving out ahead of the better lift. Instability is also more

limited currently across the area. The better lift is currently

further to the northwest so any early morning activity should

remain isolated across the area, if any at all, and it is quite

possible it dissipated completely as the convection moves

towards and into the area early this morning. Better forcing

will occur with the disturbance later this morning into this

evening. Instability will be better across far southern Missouri

late this morning into this afternoon so it is possible this

current activity weakens as it moves into the area but with the

forcing a band of showers will remain possible, but some

locations may not see much rain today. As the activity moves

further south it is possible scattered storms redevelop across

the south this afternoon and evening across portions of southern

and south central Missouri as the disturbance moves into the

slightly better area of instability today.



The hot air mass that has been over the area the last several

days will remain in place across the area again today even with

the frontal boundary pushing into the area later today.

However, clouds and rain potential with the convection moving

towards the area could keep temperatures cooler today,

especially where clouds can linger through much of the peak

heating period today. Where clouds moving int later in the day,

or if clouds can clear early enough in the day temperatures

should recover quickly. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect

for locations along and south of a Joplin to Springfield to

Salem, Missouri line today where maximum heat index values of

100 to 115 degrees are expected. A Heat Advisory is in effect

today for heat index values up to 105 degrees for locations

north of the Joplin to Springfield to Salem Missouri line.

Locations that see rain this morning but can see the clouds

clear early enough in the day could see temperatures recover

quick this afternoon/early evening especially south of the

front.



The region will remain in an upper level northwest flow pattern

tonight and another upper level disturbance will move through

the northwest flow tonight into Wednesday. Some elevated

uncapped instability is expected to develop across portions of

the southern Missouri into southeastern Kansas tonight into

Wednesday morning. A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms

developing from the northwest to southeast is possible tonight

into Wednesday morning generally west of Highway 65 but could

remain west of I-49. Some locally heavy rainfall will be

possible where any training of storms can occur tonight into

Wednesday morning.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



Some showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across the far

western portions of the area Wednesday morning but should push

off to the south by the afternoon hours. The area will remain in

the upper level northwest flow pattern and another area of

showers and storms is expected to develop and push to the

southeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The upper level

ridge will continue to push slightly back to the west during

this time so it is possible the activity Wednesday night remain

just to the west of the area, but could again clip the far

western portions of the area Wednesday night into Thursday

morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered

showers and storms will remain possible west of Highway 65

Thursday afternoon and evening as times.



An upper level shortwave trough will move southwest across the

central Plains Thursday night an across the region on Friday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to

the west/northwest and move across the region. Coverage will

likely be better with this system as better forcing will be in

place. Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be

possible Thursday night into Friday as a band of showers and

storms will likely develop, the exact location the band setups

will be dependent one exactly where the complex develops, but

there will be the potential for it setting up over the area.

There also could be the potential for some strong storms late

Thursday night into Friday with damaging wind gusts the main

risk with any line segments that can develop. Shower and

thunderstorms will linger into Friday night ending from west to

east on Saturday as the trough moves off to the east.



A cooler air mass will move into the area behind the trough on

Saturday as highs in the 70s to the middle 80s are expected.

Temperatures will warm back to near normal for this time of

year by early next week as highs in the upper 80s to the lower

90s are expected. Widespread rain chances are currently low

late this weekend into early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026



A frontal boundary is moving through the area, with dissipating

showers sinking south this afternoon. The extent of coverage is

expected to remain limited, thus PROB30 groups are being

utilized. A few instances of MVFR flight conditions may

accompany the low rain chances. Additional scattered showers

and thunderstorm chances this evening into the overnight. Light

north winds at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon with the frontal

passage, turning more east-northeast into tonight.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-

     066>071-077>081-089.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ082-

     083-088-090>098-101>106.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Perez