Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

897

FXUS63 KSGF 171121

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

621 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered pulse thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into

  early this evening, mainly along and west of Highway 65.

  Strong to marginally severe wind gusts and small hail will be

  possible with a few of the stronger storms.



- Highs in the 90s continue across the area today and across

  the eastern Ozarks on Thursday.



- A cold front will move through the area from the west Thursday

  into Friday, bringing more seasonal temperatures and

  widespread rain chances (40-60%) to the area.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows somewhat of a blocky pattern with an upper

ridge over our area, an upper low across the Rockies and another

upper low over the east coast. The upper level energy was

beginning to move into Kansas and combined with a low level jet,

has forced some showers and storms out that direction. Closer to

our area it was partly cloudy and dry. 00z KSGF sounding

measured an 850mb temp of 20C (>90th percentile) therefore a

very warm airmass remains as seen by yesterdays high temp tying

a record at SGF. Some patchy fog was developing west of

Springfield where some scattered storms occurred yesterday

afternoon and evening.



Today: Expecting storms across Kansas to remain well west of the

area. However, as seen yesterday, daytime heating and enough

moisture will likely allow for another afternoon and evening of

pulse thunderstorms. Instability of 1000-2000j/kg is largely

confined to areas along and west of Highway 65 therefore those

will be the favored areas again. Would like to see a little

higher PW values and theta e diffs for severe pulses like we saw

yesterday however there should be enough mid level moisture for

perhaps one or two storms with downbursts winds to 60mph and

perhaps some marginally severe hail. Many areas will again

remain dry and PoPs are in the 20-30 percent range west of

Highway 65. Temps will again be warm however with increasing

cloud cover we may see slightly lower temps (low 90s) when

compared to previous days.



Tonight through Thursday: The upper level trough to the west

will push further east tonight and another low level jet will

develop across Kansas. Latest HREF guidance suggests storms may

develop both in southwest Kansas and eastern Kansas. These

eastern Kansas storms may try to move into far southeast Kansas

and western Missouri before sunrise Thursday. The upper trough

will then approach Missouri on Thursday and there are

indications that storms could be a little more widespread than

previous days with PoPs in the 30-60% range by afternoon and

evening with the highest chances west of Highway 65. If storms

indeed develop during peak heating then a few severe pulse

storms could occur again. Temps will likely be warmest east of

Springfield where precip will take longer to arrive. HREF LPMM

continues to show small, localized pockets of 1-2 inches of

rainfall where storms develop and slowly move. Again, this will

be highly localized with most areas seeing less than this.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025



Friday through the Weekend: Ensembles are in decent agreement

that the upper energy will move directly overhead on Friday.

This should lead to a cloudy and "cooler" day (highs in the

80s). Rain chances will also be higher (40-60%) across most of

the area. A west/northwest flow pattern then develops for the

rest of the weekend. This looks to allow disturbances to move

through the area with near daily rain chances. Ensemble cluster

analysis continues to show the precip signal in most scenarios

therefore the 30-50% precip chances look reasonable both days.

The clouds and precip chances will keep high temps in the low to

mid 80s which is much closer to average for mid September.



Next Week: Ensembles then diverge as a strong/deep upper level

low moves southeast out of Canada and into the northern or

central plains. The track of this disturbance will have large

implications on our precip chances and they are currently less

than 30 percent due to this uncertainty. Overall the precip

chances over the next 5-6 days are encouraging given the ongoing

severe drought over a large part of the area.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025



Other than some brief patchy fog at JLN at the beginning of the

TAF period, VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites.

Winds will remain light and variable with a slight southeasterly

wind this morning then turning northerly or westerly by

afternoon and evening however speeds will be less than 10kts.

There is a 20-30 percent chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon

at the sites however confidence is too low to include at this

time.





&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025



Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within

5 degrees of a record.



Record High Temperatures:



September 17:

KSGF: 96/1953

KJLN: 95/1953

KUNO: 97/1953



September 18:

KVIH: 95/1953

KUNO: 96/1972



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield

CLIMATE...Burchfield