Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

138

FXUS63 KSGF 231740

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1140 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High confidence in above normal temperatures occurring across

  the region this week especially on Monday and Tuesday.



- These warmer temperatures will support melting of the

  existing snowpack.



- A weak front will bring low rain chances (10-20%) to parts of

  the area on Wednesday, but many locations will likely remain

  dry.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper

air analysis revealed a shortwave moving east across Texas with

associated cloud cover. Another, weaker shortwave was located

across Nebraska and South Dakota, moving southeast. The 00z

sounding measured a very dry airmass with a PW value of only

0.13in. Surface high pressure to the southeast of the area has

allowed for light southerly winds. These winds have kept the

lower atmosphere mixed with temps in the middle to upper 20s.



Today through Tonight: Warmer air at 850mb (3-6C) will

overspread the area from the west today. This should allow for

temps to rise into the lower to middle 50s across the area. The

limiting factor to temps could be some scattered high clouds

(associated with the incoming shortwave) and existing snowpack

(4 inch snow depth at SGF currently). Therefore if clouds are

thicker then temps could be a few degrees cooler. Light south

winds will again keep temps a few degrees warmer tonight with

lows in the lower 30s. Some area will not drop below freezing.



Monday: Even warmer air at 850mb moves in (8-10C) and conditional

climatology study would suggest highs in the lower to middle

60s with clear to partly cloudy skies. We are expecting a little

more cloud cover with another passing shortwave which could

impact temps, however current NBM highs of lower 60s look

reasonable. Winds will also be a little stronger with gusts

around 20mph. Any remaining snowcover will likely melt by the

end of Monday.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



Tuesday: Likely the warmest day of the week as even warmer air

at 850mb moves in (10-12C). This would put the area solidly in

the middle to perhaps upper 60s range as long as clouds remain

thin. This would be about 15 degrees above average for late

February.



Wednesday and Thursday: Ensembles continue to suggest a

shortwave will drop southeast into the area during the day with

an associated cold front. Fairly good run to run consistency has

been shown with the overall structure of this progressive

system. Latest NBM and LREF precip chances continue to be low,

in the 10-20 percent range with the highest chances northeast of

Springfield. Moisture will likely be a limiting factor with

this system given its progressive nature from the northwest and

limited moisture return time from the south. Depending on the

timing of the front, above average temps may be able to occur.

Slightly cooler air aloft will build in for Thursday



Friday into next weekend: Ensemble variance increases as a

shortwave looks to move into the southwest US and undercut a

ridge. Currently the area looks to remain in a dry northwest

flow pattern with above average temps as we await the southwest

US system.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025



VFR through the TAF period. Transient high clouds, southerly

winds around or below 10 kts through Sunday. Winds increase

early Monday morning, gusting up to 20 kts. Low-level wind shear

may increase as surface winds strengthen, but confidence in

impactful magnitude (>30-35 kts) is low at this time, so it

remains omitted from the TAF at this point.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Camden