Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

676

FXUS63 KSGF 150503

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1103 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Colder weather arrives this weekend. Overnight wind chills are

  forecast to fall into the single digits above and below zero

  Saturday night.



- Windy conditions will return on Friday with northwest gusts of

  30 to 40 mph.



- Mostly dry conditions will persist over the next seven days.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026



Some lingering cloud streets behind last night`s frontal

passage can be observed on satellite across southern Missouri

early this afternoon. Aloft, a longwave trough is digging across

the eastern CONUS, while a prominent ridge is set up across the

west.



The resulting surface pressure gradient--along with modest

mixing--has resulted in a crisp and breezy day today. As the

aforementioned front continues to slink southward this evening,

the gradient will loosen, and winds will subside. At the same

time, temperatures will hold steady or slightly drop throughout

the day, and the daily maximum will have likely occurred

earlier this morning. Lows tonight will fall into the teens for

much of the area.



Quiet weather continues through Thursday as the Missouri Ozarks

remain under dry northwest flow aloft. A shortwave impulse will

dive out of Canada and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest,

but its progged track should tend to keep the best forcing and

any precipitation chances just to the northeast of our forecast

area.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed

Jan 14 2026



Cold Weekend Temperatures:



The seasonable temperatures continue through Friday afternoon,

but a series of shortwave troughs along with a pair of cold

fronts look to change that Friday night into the weekend. Global

models dig these impulses a bit farther to the west than

Thursday`s, which will bring colder air into the region. Near to

below average maximum temperatures (5 to 10 degrees below) are

forecast through Monday. Saturday night will be the coldest

stretch of the forecast period. NBM probabilistic data show a 30

to 60% chance of overnight minimum temperatures in the single

digits. Furthermore, breezy northwest winds will push wind

chills into the single digits above and below zero. Temperatures

will begin to gradually warm up early next week as ensembles

show mid-level heights rising across the region.



Windy and Dry on Friday:



Winds will increase on Friday as a shortwave digs into southern

Missouri and a 30 to 40 kt 850 mb jet looms overhead. Forecast

soundings suggest mixing potential will be quite high Friday

afternoon, which should allow that higher momentum flow to mix

down to the surface. Deterministic NBM supports northwesterly

wind gusts up to 35 mph, but if this robust mixing does indeed

pan out, then gusts closer to 40 mph will be more likely. In

fact, quantile-mapped distribution data depict 40 to 60%

probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph atop the Ozark

Plateau. These details will be better resolved as we get in

range of the hi-res guidance. As dry air will remain in place,

these winds could result in Elevated fire danger Friday

afternoon.



Mostly Dry through the Long Term:



Ensemble output suggests limited precipitation chances through

the long term forecast period. We`ll have to watch for the

possibility of some light flurries behind the cold front Friday

night into Saturday morning as soundings show a shallow layer of

moisture and lift are apparent in forecast soundings, but

confidence is low, and impacts are not expected. Current NBM

precipitation chances are near 10% across central Missouri and

the eastern Ozarks.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026



Surface high pressure continues to build into the region,

leading to mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds will

continue to decrease, with light winds expected during the

early morning hours before shifting out of the southwest by the

afternoon and slightly increasing to 8-12kts. Towards the end

of the period, LLWS will be possible at all terminals, generally

after 00Z through the end of the TAF period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Melto