Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

860

FXUS63 KSGF 062310

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

510 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will

  continue through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower

  70s.



- A strong cold front moves through Saturday night into Sunday

  morning, accompanied by gusty northwest winds and cold

  temperatures. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.



- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on

  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025



Through Tonight:

Surface high pressure is sliding east of the area today, with a

mid-level shortwave translating through the Plains. An

associated surface low develops and lifts through the Great

Lakes region, with a trailing cold front to sweep through the

Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley overnight tonight. Ahead of

this frontal passage, breezy south-southeast winds are expected

through this afternoon. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph,

before diminishing later this evening. Highs this afternoon

remain 5 to 10+ degrees above average, with temperatures

reaching into the middle/upper 60s to lower 70s. An area of low

level clouds may prevent some locations from reaching forecasted

highs.



As the frontal passage approaches tonight, a batch of mid to

high level clouds overspread the area. However, forcing and

moisture remain weaker in nature, thus we are expecting a mostly

dry frontal passage into Friday morning. Light rain chances

remain < 15% across central MO. Cloud cover will keep overnight

lows mild in the lower to middle 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025



Friday-Saturday:

For Friday, another warm and dry day is expected across the area

with highs in lower 70s and mostly sunny skies.



By Saturday, a pattern change is on the horizon ahead of a

strong trough digging out of Canada into the Northern Plains.

This trough will feature the coldest airmass of the season thus

far, with a series of reinforcing cold front passages. Ahead of

the first frontal passage, highs reach back into the upper 60s

to lower 70s on Saturday afternoon. Winds gradually increase out

of the west- northwest through the afternoon and evening, with

gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Low rain chances (10-30%) exist with the

initial frontal passage on Saturday afternoon and evening

across central MO. Meanwhile,the colder air slowly sinks into

the area behind the first frontal passage, before a strong surge

of colder air on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning fall into the

upper 20s to middle 30s.



Confidence is high in the colder air persisting through Sunday

and Monday. Highs on Sunday are only expected to top out in the

upper 30s to lower 40s. This is 15 to 20 degrees below average

for early November. Further support of cold temperatures are

supported by 850mb temperatures around -8 to -10 C. Additionally,

gusty winds linger through Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts of 20

to 30 mph will make it feel more like middle to upper 20s on

Sunday afternoon. As surface high pressure settles into the

region Sunday night, overnight lows are progged to drop into the

lower to middle 20s. There is even the potential for some

locations to bottom out in the upper teens. A look at NBM

probabilities for low temperatures depict the following:



Prob < 30: 90-100%

Prob < 25: 50-90%

Prob < 20: 10-30%



The anomalously cold temperatures give way to wind chills in

the lower teens on Monday morning. Make sure to take the proper

precautions ahead of this early season shot of cold air. Highs

reach into the lower to middle 40s on Monday afternoon.



Tuesday-Thursday:

Ensemble guidance depicts a departing trough to the east on

Tuesday, with increasing mid-level heights returning over the

central CONUS. This positions the area in broad northwest flow

with a surface high and tightening pressure gradient positioned

to the southeast. From a climatological standpoint, this pattern

favors dry air and strong return flow. Expect southwest wind

gusts to approach 25 to 35 mph, with the potential for even

higher gusts up to 40 mph (west of Highway 65). This sets the

stage for potential elevated fire weather conditions, especially

with dry leaf litter falling over the area. Check back for

updates as we watch for fire weather concerns.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 510 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025



VFR conditions are overall expected to prevailing across the TAF

sites through the TAF period. High clouds are currently over

the area early this evening. Ceilings will lower to around 4000

to 5000 feet later this evening into tonight there is a low

chance for some MVFR ceilings across portions of south central

MO tonight.



Southerly winds will occur this evening and will become

westerly overnight and northwesterly on Friday. as dry frontal

passage occurs. Low level wind shear out of the southwest at 35

to 40 knots through the later this evening into the overnight

hours.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Wise