Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

453

FXUS63 KSGF 250819

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

319 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures likely for the next week. Highs in

  the middle 70s to around 80 and dry weather are expected

  through the end of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026



It`s a mostly clear and cool night early this morning as the ridge

of high pressure persists over the Gulf up through the Midwest to

the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will continue to cool until

sunrise, hitting lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s once again.

Temperatures will rise quickly, into the upper 70s to around 80 for

highs again today. Shortwave energy ever so slowly draws closer, but

is not expected to result in precipitation. However, it does look to

cause some weak height falls that result in slightly lower highs

Monday, in the mid to upper 70s. Normal highs are around the mid

60s, making these temperatures still quite a bit above normal.



This dry airmass is allowing for minimum afternoon relative humidity

to get quite low, however very light southeast winds have kept fire

danger to a minimum. The upper level disturbance passing by Monday

is quite weak, and thankfully does not act to strengthen the

pressure gradient any notable amount. Low temperatures both

tonight and Monday night will still be the upper 40s to mid 50s

values we`ve been seeing lately.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026



Tuesday, the upper low over the west lifts north and east, beginning

to flatten the ridge as more shortwave energy lifts northeast

through Missouri. This will result in another slight decrease to

afternoon highs, with most topping out in the mid 70s. Moisture is

still pretty meager, though the NBM has increased the spatial extent

of ~20% PoPs in eastern Kansas early Tuesday morning (largely

outside of the SGF CWA). Otherwise, Tuesday will be pretty similar

with light south/southeast winds and high clouds.



Wednesday, flow begins to take on more of a southwesterly component.

Though the ridging will have begun breaking down, the WAA will allow

highs to warm up to near 80 once again. This continues Thursday,

which looks to be the hottest day of the week with widespread

highs in the low 80s.



Troughing will continue to try and get established with various

shortwaves passing by, and moisture will continue to be pulled up

from the Gulf. There are still timing differences at this lead time,

but it looks like by the end of the week we may finally have a

sufficient combination of moisture and forcing to bring widespread

rain to the area. At the moment, the NBM has those chances topping

out around 50% Saturday morning, though some other global ensembles

are indicating it could be slightly later.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026



VFR conditions expected through the period. High cloud cover

around FL250 increasing through the period with light

southeasterly surface winds.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Nelson

LONG TERM...Nelson

AVIATION...Nelson