Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

054

FXUS63 KSGF 041037

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

437 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms will move east into extreme southeastern

  Kansas and western Missouri early this morning and push east

  through the morning hours. There could be a few strong to

  severe storms with hail to the size of quarters and localized

  damaging wind risk.



- A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon,

  additional storms will develop along the front, mainly along

  and southeast of I-44. Strong to severe storms will occur

  again with hail and isolated damaging winds gusts the main

  risks.



- A band of heavy rainfall will be possible along and southeast

  of I-44 today into Thursday morning, and could lead to

  localized flooding where locations receive the heaviest rain.



- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and

  through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be

  be possible from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

  There will the potential for hail to the size of golf balls,

  damaging winds and a tornado risk with this activity.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026



A front is located across the area generally along I-44. The

front will primarily remain located here, shifting slightly

north to south at times, through the morning hours. Then this

afternoon and evening a cold front will move southeast across

the area and into northwest Arkansas into south central by this

evening, before stalling from west to east across southern

Missouri/northern Arkansas tonight into Thursday morning. the

front will then lift north through the area on to the north

Thursday afternoon.



A few showers and storms will be possible the next few hours,

but most locations will remain dry. An upper level trough is

moving east into the plains early this morning. Storms are

developing across northwestern Texas currently. Storms will

continue to develop and expand in coverage and push east this

morning and into extreme southeastern Kansas and far western

Missouri early this morning then to the east this morning mainly

along and south of the stalled front. Instability will be

strongest to the west of Highway 65 and some hail to the size of

quarters will occur with this cluster of storms that move into

the area. There also could be some line segments and there will

be a scattered damaging wind risk with the line segments.



Instability will increase south of the front this afternoon and

evening ahead of the upper level trough and a cold front. There

will be the potential for severe storms this afternoon and

evening, with hail the main risk. There will be weak low level

shear and low level cape will not be overly strong therefore

the tornado risk will be low but with the front stalled across

the area and multiple rounds of storms some boundary

interactions could risk in a low (2%) brief weak tornado risk.



The front will stall across northern Arkansas and southern

Missouri tonight into Thursday morning. Rounds of showers and

storms will continue to develop and move across the area along

and north of the front through this period. Most of this

activity will be sub severe but a few stronger storms with hail

the risk will be possible tonight into Thursday morning. With

multiple round of rain moving across the area there will be the

potential for locally heavy rainfall. The HREF LPMM

precipitation amounts show the potential for a narrow band of

3-5" of rainfall today into Thursday morning along and south of

I-44. This will be possible if/where training of storms can

occur. The WPC has issued a Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall

Outlook for today into Thursday morning for location south of

I-44 where localized flash flooding will be possible under the

band of heavy rainfall. Highs will warm into the 70s on Thursday

afternoon as the front lifts off to the north of the area.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 233 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026



An stronger upper level trough will dig into the southwestern

U.S. on Thursday and will move into the plains on Friday and

across the region on Saturday. Warm air mass will be in place

as highs will warm into the 70s. An area of surface low pressure

will move northeast into the central Plains on Friday and dry

line will move east across central and eastern Kansas Friday

afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, likely in the form of

supercells, will develop and move northeast a head of the dry

line Friday afternoon and evening. These storms could move into

locations mainly along and west of I-49. Deep layer and low

level shear will increase across the region with the approach of

the trough. Modest MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will develop

with around 100 J/kg. There will be the potential for large hail

to the size of golf balls and isolated damaging winds, with the

low level shear and low level cap there will also be a tornado

risk. As the upper level trough moves east a cold front will

sweep east and a overtake the dry line and move across the area

Friday night. A line of storms will develop long front and move

east across the region. Damaging winds will occur with the line

with some scattered hail to the size of quarters west of

Highway 65 where better instability will be in place.

Instability will gradually weaken east of Highway 65 early

Satruday morning, the hail risk will decrease but enough

instability  will remain in place for at least a scattered

damaging wind risk with the line of storms until it move east of

the area. Low level cap and shear will support a spin up

tornado risk within the line.



The front will move south of the area on Saturday, some showers

could linger across south central MO behind the front Satruday

morning morning before moving south during the afternoon hours.

Slightly cooler conditions will occur this weekend behind the

front with highs in the 60s, some locations may remain in the

50s across the northern portions of the area on Saturday.



The warm front will lift north through region early next week

when highs warming into the 70s again. Another system move

through the region during the middle of the week bringing

additional rain chances to the area. There remains differences

between the model members on the exact track and timing of this

system.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 438 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026



A front is located over the area and will remain over the area

this morning then move south this afternoon and evening and back

to the north tonight into Thursday. Winds will generally be

light and variable through the TAF period.



Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning. Showers and

thunderstorms will move into and through the area this morning.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur at times this

afternoon into this evening. Some light rain or drizzle will be

possible into tonight. IFR ceilings will develop across the area

this morning, may improve briefing this afternoon then return

this evening and tonight. Gusty winds and hail will be possible

with the strongest storms today.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 233 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026



Although some locations received more than 1" of rainfall this

past week, it was not enough to overcome long-term precipitation

deficits across the area. Abnormally dry soils continue to

persist across the CWA. The latest drought monitor shows

abnormally dry (north) to severe and extreme drought (south)

affecting the region. USGS streamgages indicate streamflow is

running below normal to much below normal across many area

waterways. With dry antecedent conditions prevailing, official

forecasts for our river forecast points do not indicate flooding

occuring. Keep in mind, official forecasts only utilize 24-48

hours of QPF so any rainfall forecast beyond that time window

will not be reflected in the official river forecasts.



Looking at longer range (10 day), probabilistic HEFS

forecasts for our river forecast points show the most likely outcome

(50th percentile) indicates flows increasing, however, none are

expected to reach flood stage. If more extreme QPF amounts

materialize the 10% chance flow scenarios do indicate a number of

river forecast locations reaching flood stage. The most recent Flood

Hazard Outlook indicates that there is a limited chance for flash,

urban, and river flooding later this week into next week.



The WPC Excessive Rain Outlook indicates a Slight Risk for

excessive rain Today and a Maringal Risk on Fri/Sat across at

least portions of the region. Flash Flood Guidance across the

area ranges from 1.5"-2" (1 hour) to 2.5"- 3" (6 hour). If these

thresholds are exceeded localized flash flooding may occur.

Although, at this time, it does not appear that widespread

significant river flooding will occur, stay tuned as these

events unfold.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise

HYDROLOGY...Wise/Grout