Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

316

FXUS63 KSGF 222252

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

552 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Near average temperatures and mostly dry for the rest of this

  week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.



- Below average temperatures to start next week, with 50-75%

  confidence for highs in the 70s to lower 80s.



- 20 to 50% rain chances will occur at times early next week

  with the highest chances occurring over southwestern Missouri

  where a 40-60% chance for more widespread above normal

  precipitation exists.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025



Fair weather cumulus have formed over the area once again today.

There is quite a bit of widespread cloud cover today but it`s

trying to mix out as the afternoon continues on. Either way, the

cloud cover hasn`t quite affected our daytime highs today. We

will still top out in the upper 80s over the next few hours and

the clouds will continue to clear out. Tonight will be dry again

with lows in the mid 60s with a chance for valley fog near the

rivers again early tomorrow morning.



Saturday will be another warm day with dewpoints slightly higher

than they were today which means it`ll feel a bit more humid.

Tomorrow will likely start out with scattered clouds once again

and they will slowly dissipate through the day. Highs will be in

the mid to upper 80s again with breezy northerly winds gusting

up to 20 mph by the afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025



Ridging starts to break down this weekend and our cold front

will be on its way! The surface front will move through on

Saturday evening but we won`t start to really feel the effects

of the cold front until Sunday. As the front moves through on

Saturday late afternoon, there may be enough instability over SE

KS and SW MO to initiate a few thunderstorms over those areas.

Right now, there`s only a 15-30% chance for rain to occur but

that activity should remain sub-severe.



The large mid-level trough that moves through the area will

allow cooler air to settle into the state for the start of next

week as well as multiple chances for rain to occur. Though, it`s

important to point out that the rainfall we receive next week

won`t necessarily bust the drought. This is especially true if

the drier solution occurs and we miss out on most of the

rainfall as some models have these systems trending too far

south of our area. As of right now, it appears that SE KS and

SW MO still have the highest chances for rain with this upcoming

pattern change as they sit at 30-50% for the start of next week.

That area will have to be monitored for excessive rainfall if

they receive multiple rounds of rain in the same areas. There

will likely not be any all day washouts and not everyone will

see rain. Though, with multiple rounds occurring, we are hoping

everyone does get under a shower or two by the end of next week.

The driest day is forecast to be on Tuesday with chances of

rain on all the other days. Models are showing the most

widespread rain occuring Thursday into Friday but we`ll have to

keep an eye on model trends to see if that rain axis shifts as

this looking about a week out. Either way, temperatures will be

pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s during the day and low

50s into the 40s overnight which is about 10 to 15 degrees below

normal for this time of year. Enjoy the early taste of fall!



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025



A cumulus could deck around 5 to 6kft will remain over the area

early this evening but will dissipated after sunset this. North

to northeasterly winds are currently occurring across the area

and will become light and variable this evening into Satruday

morning.



A front will move through the area Saturday afternoon and

evening. Northerly winds will occur across the area on

Saturday. There could be some scattered showers and maybe a

thunderstorm along the front Saturday afternoon/evening but

coverage will be limited with the better chances expected to the

west of the area.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Wise