Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

540

FXUS63 KSGF 041945

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Localize areas of elevated fire weather conditions linger

  through the remainder of the afternoon along the Interstate 49

  corridor. Expect southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph and

  minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent.



- Temperatures continue to be 5 to 10+ degrees above average

  through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.



- Low rain chances (10-30%) Thursday night into Friday morning.

  Highest chances across central into south central MO.



- Increasing confidence in a frontal passage ushering in colder

  air for Sunday and Monday. Highs in the 40s and lows in the

  20s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025



This Afternoon-Tonight:

Zonal to weak ridging continues to persist across the central

CONUS, with surface high pressure to the south and east. This

has kept the area warm and dry. Highs this afternoon have

reached into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additionally, strong

return flow with a tightening pressure gradient has supported

gusty southerly winds. Observations depict wind gusts of 25 to

35 mph (west of Highway 65) this afternoon, tapering off into

this evening. The combination of gusty winds and dry air

(relative humidity values around 35 to 40%) have supported some

localized areas of elevated fire conditions. This is generally

confined to the Interstate 49 corridor, or southeast KS into

southwest MO.



For tonight, lows fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The

strongest radiational cooling will occur across the Eastern

Ozarks.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025



Wednesday-Saturday:

As we progress into mid-week, the weather pattern remains rather

benign with above average temperatures and mostly dry

conditions. Above average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower

70s is supported by 850mb temperatures around 12 to 14 C.

Additionally, confidence remains high in above average

temperatures given the NBM interquartile spread remaining less

than 5 degrees. This is anywhere from 5 to 10+ degrees above

average for early November.



Meanwhile, mostly dry conditions will accompany this pattern

outside of low rain chances (10-30%) Thursday night into Friday

morning with a weak shortwave and frontal passage. This will be

associated with a surface low displaced across the Great Lakes

region, with forcing and moisture remaining weak across the

area. NBM probabilities suggest the best chances remaining

across central into south central MO. Probabilities of > 0.10

inch of rain are only 15 to 25%. Any thunderstorm potential

remains low, at around 10%. If better moisture is able to advect

ahead of the front, we could see an uptick in PoPs and thunder

chances. This remains a low confidence scenario at this time.



Sunday-Monday:

By late this weekend, ensemble guidance is coming into better

agreement on a digging trough across the central CONUS. While

there is still some uncertainty in the exact magnitude and

placement of the trough, the trend supports a strong shot of

colder air. NBM interquartile spreads remain around 5 to 10

degrees, yet the entire spread are below average temperatures.

The current forecast suggests highs in the lower to middle 40s

behind the frontal passage, which is above the 50th percentile.

This would indicate high confidence for cold temperatures on

Sunday and Monday, featuring overnight lows in the 20s. It will

likely even feel a bit colder, when you add in a brisk

northwest wind. No precipitation is expected with this shot of

colder air. This is expected to be short- lived, as the pattern

beyond day 7 depicts a building ridge into the region with

southerly flow returning. CPC 8 to 14 day outlook favors above

average temperatures through mid-November.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1050 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025



High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Southerly winds through this afternoon, sustained at 10 to 15

knots, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Winds gradually

dissipate into the evening. LLWS will be present through the

overnight, at 40 to 45 knots.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez