452

FXUS63 KSGF 102310

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

510 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph taper off through

  the late afternoon and evening.



- Near to above average temperatures through Friday. The warmest

  temperatures will be focused across the south and west with

  highs in the middle to upper 50s.



- Cooler temperatures gradually settle into the are Friday night

  through Sunday, with the coldest temperatures on Sunday. High

  confidence in minimum wind chills on Sunday morning around -5

  to 10 degrees.



- Dry through most of the period, with precipitation chances

  around 10-20% returning mid next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



Through Tonight:

Northwest flow persists across the region today with a longwave

trough stretching through the eastern half of the CONUS. An

associated surface low has translated into the eastern Great

Lakes region. Northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph persist

through the remainder of the afternoon before dissipating after

sunset with the system sliding east. Surface high pressure

settles south into the area tonight, with winds becoming light

and variable. Meanwhile, widespread cloud cover overspreads the

area overnight, with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s. The

coldest temperatures will be across the eastern Ozarks.



Thursday:

By Thursday, a surface warm front is progged to lift through the

area with a developing low across the Plains. This will support

a switch of winds back out of the south-southwest, with

afternoon gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph. Additionally, a surge

of warmer temperatures overspreads the area with highs ranging

from upper 40s (east) to middle/upper 50s (west). The warmest

temperatures will be focused across southeast KS into southwest

MO, where NBM probabilities of exceeding 55 degrees range from

70-90%. A few locations may even approach 60. A mix of sun and

some clouds through Thursday afternoon and evening.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



This Weekend:

For Friday, a dip in the jet stream will allow a cold front to

sink into portions of the area with winds turning out of north.

The latest trends in the guidance has made the forecast more

clear for the weekend ahead, with a better consensus on

temperatures. The mostly likely scenario supports the initial

cold front slowly filtering in cooler air into the northern half

of the area, with a wide range of temperatures from north to

south on Friday and Saturday. The temperature gradient will

range from upper 30s/lower 40s (north) to upper 40s/lower 50s

(south). As referenced, interquartile temperature spreads have

shrunk significantly over the last 24 hours, thus higher

confidence in the forecast. No precipitation is expected through

the weekend.



As we progress into Saturday night and Sunday, a stronger cold

front and associated high pressure dive south of the Arctic.

This will bring us an invasion of much colder air, with current

guidance depicting overnight lows into Sunday morning ranging

from single digits to teens across the area. Breezy north winds

around 10 to 15 mph will support minimum wind chills as a low as

-5 to 10 degrees on Sunday morning. With a strong 1040 surface

high over the area, highs will struggle to warm too much on

Sunday with temperatures forecast to range from middle 20s

(north) to lower 30s (south). Based on NBM probabilistic

guidance, there are high probabilities (60-90%) that most

locations top out at or below freezing on Sunday afternoon.

Overnight lows drop into the teens to lower 20s Sunday night. As

we hone in on the forecast this weekend, there is the potential

for guidance to come in even colder as it gets a better handle

on the airmass.



Next Week:

A cold start to the week on Monday morning, with wind chills in

the single digits. The late weekend cold snap will be fairly

short-lived as a ridge builds into the region on Monday.

Southerly flow returns, ushering in a warmer airmass, with highs

rebounding into the 40s on Monday. The warming trend is forecast

to continue into mid-week, with highs back above normal for mid-

December in the 50s. This return of mild temperatures will put

the area 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Confidence is medium to

high in this return of mild temperatures, in addition to a

mostly dry stretch of weather. NBM suggests low PoPs (10-20%)

clip the area in the later part of the forecast period, though

confidence is low. This mostly dry stretch of weather may

further worsen ongoing drought conditions across the area.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF

period. Northwesterly winds have been diminishing through the

early evening, with occasional gusts up to 20kts still being

observed at KBBG. Winds should continue to diminish this evening,

becoming light overnight before shifting out of the

south/southwest and gusting up to 20-25kts again Thursday

between approximately 16Z-23Z.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Melto