Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

828

FXUS63 KSGF 191843

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

143 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to slowly

  move through the area this afternoon. Additional scattered

  showers/storms possible overnight. No severe weather expected.



- Residual flooding from previous heavy rains will continue.

  Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch is possible south

  of Interstate 44.



- Cooler into mid week, with additional rain chances (60-90%) on

  Thursday and Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive

  rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026



Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows an upper level trough/jet streak over the

Rockies with another more compact shortwave working through the

area. An 850mb front was located from central Oklahoma into

eastern Kansas. The surface cold front was currently located

just west of Springfield with temps in the 50s to around 60

behind it with lower to middle 60s ahead of the front. The

airmass was becoming increasingly stable over the area with MU

CAPE now less than 1000j/kg. However there was a corridor of

slightly higher MU CAPE centered more along the 850mb front. The

widespread area of showers and storms has now shifted to the

areas east of Highway 65. Residual flooding continues across

locations north of Springfield where heavy rainfall occurred.



Rain Chances Through Wednesday and cooler temps: The afternoon

batch of showers and isolated storms will continue to move

east/southeast with a brief break/lull this evening. However,

overnight (mainly after midnight) there is an increasing signal

that light showers or perhaps an isolated storm will develop

over the area along the corridor of the 850mb front. A low level

jet and continued placement of the right entrance region of the

upper level jet will also aid in the development of this

scattered activity. Severe weather is not expected and rainfall

amounts will likely remain light enough to limit any renewed

flooding. Temperatures should slowly decrease into the 50s.



Weak mid level ridging should allow for a decreasing trend in

precip chances through the day. Northeast winds and mostly

cloudy conditions should keep temps cool with most locations

staying in the 60s. There could even be a few locations north of

Springfield that struggle to even reach 60.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026



Additional Rain Chances Late Week and Weekend: Ensemble data

shows a rather unsettled pattern Thursday onward. From a

synoptic perspective, the pattern favors shortwave energy moving

through the area every few days given the southwest flow aloft.

One such wave looks to move into the area late Thursday into

Friday. Precip chances have increased into the 60-80% range as a

shield of showers and storms looks to move through the area

from the southwest. Looking at instability, latest ensemble

probs for CAPE greater than 500j/kg is highest on Friday. Latest

probs for precip greater than 0.5in is around 60%. Therefore we

will need to monitor the location of the heaviest rainfall. The

WPC has highlighted portions of the area in a Slight Risk for

excessive rainfall.



Additional shortwaves look to rotate through the area this

weekend. Confidence is low on exact timing of each wave and

subsequent hazards however rain chances are in the 30-50% range

at times this weekend. A gradual warming trend should occur this

weekend with the potential for highs to reach the upper 70s to

near 80 degrees.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026



An area of showers and a few thunderstorms was moving through

southern Missouri. The chance of thunderstorms will decrease

through the afternoon however rain chances remain high. The

chance of rain will also return overnight. A front is moving the

area and has already moved into JLN. The front will move through

SGF and BBG this afternoon and will switch the winds to the

northwest. North to northwest winds will then continue through

Wednesday. Behind the front, cloud ceilings drop quickly into

IFR with some LIFR. Confidence is high that ceilings will drop

below 1kft this afternoon, lasting through tonight. Ceilings may

drop down to 500 ft at times and additional updates are likely.

Lastly, visibilities may drop closer to 4-5 miles at times in

the rain showers.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Burchfield