Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

964

FXUS63 KSGF 162253

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

553 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for isolated severe

  thunderstorms over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri

  this evening. Primary hazards are hail to the size of golf

  balls and 60 mph wind gusts.



- Gusty southerly winds of 35-45 mph on Wednesday.



- Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms late

  Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with all hazards

  possible. Primary hazards are tennis ball size hail, 70-80 mph

  winds, and a few tornadoes. The greatest risk is across

  central MO. Localized heavy rainfall may support flash

  flooding.



- Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk for severe thunderstorms on

  Thursday into early Thursday night, mainly along and south of

  I-44. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds up

  to 60 mph, and flash flooding are possible.



- Thunderstorm chances return this weekend into early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026



This Afternoon-Tonight:

Radar depicts a few showers and highly isolated thunderstorms

pushing into southern MO early this afternoon, with most

locations remaining dry further north. Any thunderstorms with

this activity are expected to remain non-severe. The attention

then turns to better moisture advecting northeast out of the Red

River Valley into southeast KS and southwest MO by this evening.

This can be gleaned from dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s

to near 70. Meanwhile, SBCAPE pushes towards 1500-2000 J/kg in

the vicinity of unidirectional deep layer shear of 40-50 knots.

This setup may be supportive of a few isolated thunderstorms

(40-60% chances), potentially supercellular in nature. Forcing

remains the limiting factor, and as a result gives us reduced

confidence in the extent of development and coverage.

Nonetheless, if isolated thunderstorms are able to develop the

environment will support a strong to severe thunderstorm or two.

Primary hazards are large up to golf balls and damaging wind

gusts up to 60 mph. Thunderstorm splits may support a left-

mover, further supporting large hail potential. This potential

is captured with the latest SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk

across portions of the area. Most locations remain dry outside

of southeast KS into far southwest MO, generally west of Highway

65 and south of Highway 54 towards the Interstate 49 corridor.



Overnight lows fall into the 60s areawide, with changes on

horizon ahead of the next system taking shape into Wednesday

with a frontal passage.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026



Wednesday:

A shortwave trough is expected translate through the Plains into

the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, with an associated low

pressure system expected to develop into eastern NE and IA. A

tight pressure gradient will develop in the response to the

deepening low pressure system, supporting strong southerly winds

around 35 to 45 mph in response to sufficient mixing.

Confidence is low in exceeding 45 mph wind gusts, with

probabilities around 20-40%. For this reason, wind headlines are

not expected at this time.



As we progress into the afternoon, strong warm air advection

will support dewpoints into the lower/middle 70s as

temperatures reach into the upper 80s to near 90. This will

result in a rather hot and humid afternoon across the area ahead

of an approaching cold front late Wednesday afternoon into the

evening. Latest guidance remains on track with the previous

forecast, suggesting the most favorable environment for strong

to severe thunderstorms will be along and north of Interstate

44, especially into central MO. This is captured with the latest

SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk. This

environment will be characterized by ample instability (MUCAPE

3000+ J/kg) in the vicinity of 50-60 knot deep layer shear.

Expect supercells to develop along the SW to NE oriented front

by late afternoon and slide through the area in the

evening/night. All hazards remains in play, particularly north

of Interstate 44 towards the Highway 54 corridor. Large hail

environment is supported by steep mid-level lapse rates

(7.5-8.0 C/km) and ample instability through the hail growth

zone as seen in latest forecast soundings. Large Hail Parameter

around 12 to 16 in this area suggest hail size to push towards

tennis to baseball, especially if cells are able to remain more

discrete in nature. Meanwhile, severe damaging winds could

occur within these thunderstorms as theta-E differences approach

25 to 30 K with DCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. There is still

some remaining uncertainty if supercells grow upscale into a

line and/or bowing segments, and thus the extent of the damaging

wind gusts. Nonetheless, damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph

remain plausible. As for tornadoes, strong low-level shear will

be present, and rather unidirectional in nature. Expect

sufficient ingestion of streamwise vorticity with supercell

structures as a result, which could support a few tornadoes.

This tornadic environment will be present in central MO, and

diminish further south as the low-level becomes less favorable.

Large scale assent becomes weaker into the evening, and thus the

severe potential and thunderstorm coverage decreases further

south towards the Interstate 44 and south. This well captured in

the latest trends of CAMs.



An additional concern with the system moving through on

Wednesday will be localized heavy rainfall. Efficient rainfall

rates are forecast given PWATs of 1.7-2.1 inches. The

antecedent conditions in place (saturated soils and elevated

streamflows) will support flash flooding in areas where training

of thunderstorms occur. WPC depicts this potential with a

Slight (2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Additional flash

flooding will become more of a concern into Thursday as post-

frontal showers and thunderstorms persist across southern MO as

the front stalls into northern AR.



Thursday:

With the frontal slowly meandering through southern MO into

Thursday morning before stalling into northern AR, scattered

showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop. Strong warm

air advection persists, with ample instability and shear to

support a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC

Marginal (1 of 5) Severe Risk exists along and south of

Interstate 44 on Thursday. Additionally, a a Slight (2 of 4)

Excessive Rainfall Outlook is stationed across the same area.

Likewise to Wednesday evening/night`s threat, antecedent

conditions remain favorable to support localized flash flooding.

The extent of precipitation coverage north of Interstate 44

remains minimal on Thursday. Overall, cooler on Thursday in the

upper 70s to lower 80s.



This Weekend-Early Next Week:

As we turn the page into Friday, a break in the active pattern

is expected with a drier forecast. Highs in the lower 80s. This

break in the pattern appears to be short-lived as a series of

shortwaves are progged to move through northwest flow with a

ridge south of the region. This pattern is indicative of MCSs,

bringing additional rain chances through the weekend. Associated

severe and/or flooding may accompany each system`s passage this

weekend. This will need be monitored closely given the saturated

soils and elevated streamflows, especially across the western

half of the area.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026



Scattered mid to high levels clouds continue to move through the

area this evening. Low chances (PROB30 group) for an isolated

shower or thunderstorm this evening at the TAF sites. Confidence

remains lower on the extent of coverage. Otherwise, winds out of

south overnight at 5 to 10 knots, before strong south-southwest

winds overspread the area on Wednesday morning. Expect sustained

winds at 15 to 20 knots, with wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez