Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

068

FXUS63 KSGF 210541

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1141 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- 15-30% chance of light rain or drizzle southeast of I-44 late

  tonight. A lower (<15%) chance exists for some meager icing on

  elevated surfaces in the eastern Ozarks.



- Upcoming weekend precipitation chances (40-70%). There is

  increasing confidence in seeing snow, but uncertainty remains

  in the track of the system and potential snow amounts.



- Higher confidence in well below normal temperatures. Single

  digit lows with wind chills below zero will be likely each

  morning this weekend (60-80% chance).



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026



Surface low pressure is located across the central Plains as an

area of surface high pressure moves off to the east of the

area. South to southwesterly winds are occurring across the area

this afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 25mph occurring at times

the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. Temperatures

will continue to warm into the low to middle 40s the rest of

this afternoon. A dry air mass is also in place across the area

with RH values around 20 to 30% occurring this afternoon. This

will lead to some elevated fire weather conditions the rest of

this afternoon.



This evening temperatures will likely cool off fairly quickly

then hold steady if not warm overnight in Wednesday morning as

southerly flow and moisture return starts to occur ahead of the

approaching low. The surface low will move northeast into

northern Missouri tonight with an associated front moving

southeast through the area tonight into Wednesday morning.

Moisture will start to advect north ahead of the low, which is

currently located in southern Texas. So, the moisture still has

a way to make it to get into the area. Therefore, its possible

the better moisture return remains south of the area before the

front/upper level trough tonight. If the moisture return does

make it into the area it will likely only move into the far

southern portions of the area. There will be lift with the front

and an upper level trough that moves across the area, so if the

moisture can make it into the area some light rain, and more

likely drizzle, will be possible. The mid levels of atmosphere

will remain dry limiting cloud ice through for it will likely be

more drizzle in nature and remain light. Temperatures will

likely cool to around 30 degrees across south central MO.

Temperatures will likely warm as precipitation begins but there

could be a brief window where temperatures are at or below

freezing, but no impacts are expected as the precipitation

remains really light and overall the better chances remain south

where warmer temperatures will be in place. If the moisture

return is slower and remains south of the area, the rain/drizzle

potential will also decrease with only a 10 to 30% chance of

occurring currently and if it can occur there is only 10% of a

brief period of freezing drizzle occurring, again no impacts are

expected.



The air mass behind the front will not be much cooler as highs

still warm into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday. Lighter winds

will occur on Thursday as surface high pressure moves over the

region.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026



An upper level low will move south into the Great Lakes region

Thursday night and will send an area of surface high pressure

and a much colder air mass south into the area on Friday with

gusty northerly winds. This much colder air mass will then

remain over the area through the weekend into early next week.

Wind chill values will likely drop below zero on Friday,

Saturday, and Sunday nights. If snow can occur across the area

temperatures may be even colder this weekend.



Precipitation will also occur with the system. The cold front

will push well south of the area on Friday and preciptiation

will start to form and move northeast Friday into Saturday along

the front. Behind the front the ensemble model members continue

to support a deep cold air mass and if any preciptiation

develops it would be all snow, though a brief period of sleet

could be possible on the onset as dry air is overcome. Models

are coming in better agreement that the center and heavy

preciptiation will setup south of the area again closer to the

front. There will be the potential for the northern edge of

this precipitation impacting the area late Friday into Saturday

morning. There could be a tight gradient in wintry amounts to

the north and possible much remains south of the area and also

could see some snow into at least southern Missouri. There is

also potential the system could still move to the north or

south some which would impact snowfall potential for the area.



Models still differ though this weekend with the second wave

that will move through the region this weekend. An upper level

low will dig south off the west coast through late this week

then move to the east this weekend. The models differ on the

track of this low, between the upper level low moving east

remaining well south of the area, to the upper level low phasing

with the northern trough and moving northeast through the area,

with several solutions in between. The more southerly track

will again keep the bulk of the snow south of the area with the

northern track bringing snow further north across much of the

area. A much colder air mass will be in place so this would be a

dry snow. There remains a large spread in the models on snow

amounts between the members, with the 10 percentile or low end

amount currently indicating the accumulating snow remaining

south of the area to the 90 percentile, higher end amounts

showing the potential for several inches of snow. Still too

early for specific snowfall amounts for the area with the

uncertainties as the system is still off the west coast and not

being sampled yet so changes are still likely to the forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026



Satellite imagery and regional surface observations show low

MVFR clouds moving in from the south and mid- to high-level

clouds dropping in from the north. The MVFR cigs are expected to

impact all three TAF sites through at least 10Z. Clearing of the

cigs may be faster at JLN (10-30% chance of staying MVFR through

14Z), but the best guess timeframes are included in the TAFs.



Additionally, a 15-30% chance of light rain or drizzle is

possible at BBG between 06-11Z tonight. have included a PROB30

group, but any precipitation may be light enough to not impact

visibility categories.



Otherwise, winds are forecast to slowly shift from southerly to

westerly, and then northwesterly, and then back to westerly

through the duration of the time period. Speeds will generally

be between 5 and 12 kts.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Price