Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

584

FXUS63 KSGF 040815

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

315 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Highs in the 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Record

  warmth possible.



- No measurable rain chances in the forecast for the remainder

  of this week into early next week. Minimal chances for

  rainfall through mid-October.



- Fire Weather: Very dry air and no significant rain expected

  through mid-October will continue to dry fuels. Added Fire

  Weather section below.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024



With dry and warm weather is place, concerns are focused on fire

weather (see fire weather section below). Record warmth is

possible again today and Saturday, especially at KJLN (see

climate section below for records), with highs ranging from the

mid 80s east to the low 90s west of Highway 65. Low humidity

will prevent heat from being a major health concern concern.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024



A final day of abnormal heat is expected Sunday before a cold

front pulls in a cooler, but still above normal, conditions for

the rest of the long term period. Record heat looks less likely

for Sunday, but see climate section below for specific records.



Concerns through the long term are related to increasing drought

and watching for fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather

section below for more specifics to that threat.



The forecast will remain dry through the middle to end of next

week. Longer term ensemble data and CPC outlooks point to drier

than normal conditions and minimal rainfall potential through

October 18th, then increasing potential for rainfall toward the

end of the month. Highs look to generally remain a little above

normal with values in the mid 70s to mid 80s through the middle

of October, then cooling some into the 70s later in the month.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024



VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF

period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024



Looking at model probabilities of combined winds >20 mph AND RH

< 30% shows less than a 5% chance over the next 1-2 weeks, so

not seeing any alarm bells for a critical fire weather (red

flag) risk at this time, but some elevated fire weather

potential exists. Given dry and drying fuels, will be watching

potential for red flag conditions closely.



Through this weekend:



Abnormally hot conditions with record highs possible each day.



Today...Light winds with Min RH of 35-45%



Saturday...Elevated fire weather west of Highway 65. S-SW winds

10-15 mph gusting to 15-25 mph (strongest west of Highway 65).

Min RH 30-40% west of Highway 65, 35-50% east of Highway 65.



Sunday...Elevated fire weather across much of the area. N-NW

winds 10-15 mph gusting to 15-20 mph. Min RH 20-30% (perhaps

lower) across much of the area and 30-40% across south-central

Missouri.



Next week (October 7-12):



No rain forecast. Temperatures will be cooler but still above

normal with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Daily dry Min RH values

of 20-30% west of Highway 65 and 30-40% east of Highway 65. No

notable wind events, but will be watching closely.



1-2 weeks (October 13-19):



Confidence in specifics decreases with time, but almost all

ensemble model data shows little to no rain through the middle

of October. RH values are more difficult to assess, but a

majority of ensemble members show a dry airmass remaining in

place and >50% probabilities for daily RH values dropping below

30%. Hard to give many details related to winds, but right now

fewer than 10% of ensemble model members show winds >=25 mph any

of the days in this period. Still, we will be watching closely

given continued drying of fuels.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024



Record High Temperatures:



October 4:

KSGF: 91/1938

KJLN: 91/1963

KUNO: 90/1954



October 5:

KSGF: 93/1981

KJLN: 91/1963

KVIH: 91/1897

KUNO: 91/1981



October 6:

KSGF: 89/1938

KJLN: 90/1963

KUNO: 87/2018



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus

FIRE WEATHER...Titus

CLIMATE...Titus