514

FXUS63 KSGF 062324

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

524 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below average temperatures, cloudy and patchy drizzle on

  Sunday.



- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal

  temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time

  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather

  accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis continues to show a northwest flow pattern over the

area. A shortwave and associated surface low was located across

Nebraska. A precip shield associated with this system extended

into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Low level clouds have slowly

eroded across the area but do remain across southeast Kansas

into west central Missouri. Temps have reached the 50s east of

Springfield with low 40s in the remaining cloud cover.



Tonight: The surface low looks to move southeast into northern

Missouri. Southerly winds out ahead of the front look to keep

temps above freezing overnight. Increasing lift with the arrival

of the front could cause some sprinkles or light rain showers,

with the highest chances of this north of Springfield. While

increasing winds should keep the fog patchy and greater than

one mile, there is some short term guidance that develops fog

less than one mile across south central Missouri. Confidence

remains low in any dense fog potential overnight.



Sunday: The cold front looks to move through the area in the

morning. An inspection of HREF forecast soundings shows

favorable parameters for drizzle. A lack of cloud ice, saturated

low levels and lift associated with upslope flow over the Ozark

Plateau should create some patchy drizzle during the day. The

freezing line looks to remain along and north of Highway 54

through mid afternoon therefore not expecting any freezing

drizzle at this time. We have nudged temps down using short term

models with high temps likely occuring in the morning with temps

steady or falling through the 30s during the day. By late

afternoon the highest potential for drizzle will be east of

Springfield however temps still look to be above freezing.

There are a few models showing snow showers east of Springfield

in the afternoon however there are concerns about the lack of

cloud ice. The lift does look to decrease by evening with precip

ending around dark. We will continue to monitor trends in the

short term guidance since a faster arrival of cold air would

increase the potential for freezing drizzle. However currently

the potential for freezing drizzle is very low.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



Monday through Tuesday: Ensembles suggest that while northwest

flow aloft continues, winds will gradually turn to the

southwest and increase at 850mb which will usher in warmer air.

Surface high pressure will slide through Monday with clear

skies and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Much warmer temps

look to occur on Tuesday as mean 850mb temps rise into the 6-10C

range. Latest NBM supports highs in the middle to upper 50s.

This warmth will also come with increasing surface wind gusts up

to 30mph as a pressure gradient develops over the area.



Wednesday through Friday: Ensembles then suggest that a strong

shortwave will slide north of the region on Wednesday. This

should force a dry front into the area with falling temps again

however the bulk of the colder airmass should remain north and

east of the area. While ensemble variance is high for late week,

there is some signal of another shortwave moving southeast into

northern Missouri Thursday night into Friday which could clip

central Missouri with light precip chances however confidence is

low. NBM data shows large temperature spreads for Friday which

suggests large uncertainty in the forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025



VFR conditions will occur across the area through much of the

evening hour, with southerly winds generally less than 10kt.



Late this evening into the overnight hours MVFR ceilings will

develop. There is a low chance for some patchy drizzle to occur

but coverage will be limited. If drizzle can develop,

visibilities could lower briefly.



Late tonight into Sunday morning IFR to LIFR ceilings will

develop with some light fog/drizzle possible at times along and

behind a cold front that moves south trough the region.

Northerly winds will occur behind the front Sunday morning and

afternoon and could be gusty at times. Ceilings should improve

into the MVFR range during the afternoon hours.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Wise