Area Forecast Discussion

Regional Outbreaks of Severe Weather Through Early Next Week; Early Season Heat Wave across the South

Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >

684
FXUS63 KSGF 131754
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1254 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning
and early afternoon hours. Heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding will be the main threat today. Rain chances diminish
later this afternoon.

- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily
afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Rain showers will linger over the area for today as a shortwave
pushes east. Both SPC and WPC have backed off on the severe and
flooding potential for today. This is likely due to the lack of
lift available over the area. The CWA is now only in a general
thunder outlook and a Marginal risk (1/4) for flooding today.
This means that any rain that occurs today may still lead to
nuisance flooding or flash flooding, but that it will likely be
sub-severe. Though, we could see a rumble of thunder or two if
the showers can become strong enough.

So far, most of southern MO has seen at least a trace of rain
with the highest rainfall totals occurring over Texas and
Shannon counties where they saw around 2-3 inches Saturday
afternoon. An additional 0.5-1.0" of rain can be expected today
across the area.

The upper level low will still hangout over us on Monday
allowing for afternoon thunderstorms to occur. Right now, there
is a 30-50% chance for rain mostly south of I-44.

As for high temperatures, today and tomorrow will be partly
cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s. Lows will still be warm
in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The upper-level low finally moves out of the area by Tuesday and
zonal flow returns. Though, shortwaves will move through the
area bringing daily storm chances favoring afternoon convection
as instability builds.

NBM QPF is generally around a quarter inch daily though high
precipital water and weak flow will need to be monitored for
the potential for flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

MVFR at TAF sites under light (5-8 kt) southerly winds to begin
the period, with scattered showers and misty conditions across
MO/the greater Ozarks region. Showers are expected to continue
through the afternoon, decreasing in coverage this evening with
low (<20%) chance of thunder. The strongest of these storms
could produce heavy rainfall, decreasing visibility briefly,
with downburst winds causing outflow boundaries that would
remain for a couple hours even after the responsible storm
dissipates.

As storms diminish after 00Z, ceilings will rise back to VFR
for the early portion of the overnight period.

During the late overnight/early morning portion of the period,
ceilings may reduce flight conditions again with some mist/fog
development amidst saturated conditions.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Camden