Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

245

FXUS63 KSGF 101006

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

506 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move northeast

  across portions of southeastern Kansas into central Missouri

  through the area the rest of the overnight hours into morning.

  The activity will then start to move slowly to the southeast

  this morning into this afternoon. Additional scattered storms

  will be possible across far southern/south central MO this

  afternoon/early evening.



- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for isolated strong to

  severe thunderstorms across south central Missouri this

  afternoon/early evening.



- Locally heavy rainfall is also expected the rest of the

  overnight into this morning across portions of southeastern

  Kansas into central MO as showers and storms continue to

  develop and track over the same locations.



- Heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s Saturday into

  next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026



Showers and thunderstorms have developed from central Kansas

into central Missouri early this morning. This activity is

developing in an area of 500 to 1500 J/kg of uncapped MUCAPE.

Deep layer shear is weaker around 20kt and will weaken

overnight. This activity is also elevated in nature and severe

risk low with this activity overnight, but a few storms across

southeastern KS/western Missouri could have some gusty winds

and small hail. The upper level trough is moving east out of the

northern plains early this morning and will not push the

activity south much the next several hours. Precipitable water

values are around 2" in these locations. With the lift and

uncapped MUCAPE remaining in the same locations scattered

showers and storms should continue to develop across

southeastern Kansas into Central Missouri overnight. Instability

is weaker to the southeast with more of a cap so do not expect

the activity to move south the next several hours. HREF LPMM

data is shower the potential for localized rainfall amounts of

2-4" with this activity early this morning where storms can

train over the same locations across southeastern Kansas into

western Missouri.



Closer to sunrise into this morning the upper level trough will

start to push the front and this activity to the south.

Instability will be weaker to the southeast so overall this

activity will be weakening, but there will be enough lift for

showers and embedded thunderstorms to occur across the rest of

the area this morning but rainfall rates will likely decrease

to the southeast. This activity should end by around

midday/early afternoon. The front will bring a colder air mass

to the area but will be slower to move through south central

Missouri where highs in the 90s will once again be possible.

Else where highs the upper 70s to the middle 80s are expected.

Instability will increase with the heating of the day this

afternoon/early afternoon across south central MO on to the

south. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, and a few

strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging wind

gusts the main risk. This activity should end my the mid evening

hours.



Tonight into Friday morning an upper level shortwave trough will

move east through the region and showers and some embedded

storms will likely develop mainly along and southeast of I-44. A

few showers and storms could linger into Friday afternoon/early

evening across portions of the eastern Ozarks.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026



An upper level ridge will build over the plains this weekend

allowing highs to warm into the upper 80s to the middle 90s

Saturday and Sunday.



The region will be in an upper level northwest flow pattern this

weekend with the ridge to the east of the area. The models are

showing an upper level disturbance moving through the northwest

flow Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday

night into Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be

possible ahead of the disturbance. There are still questions on

the track of the disturbance and convection and what portions of

the area will be impacted. Locally heavy rainfall will be

possible if a complex of showers and storms can develop and move

through the area.



The ensemble model members show and upper level trough and cold

front moving out of the plains by the middle of next week.

However, the models differ on the track and how far south the

front moves. Some models keep the front north of the area while

others bring the front through the area. If the front remains

north, highs in the 90s could continue into the middle of next

week, if the front moves further south highs in the 80s and some

shower and thunderstorm chances will occur.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 506 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026



An area of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly move

southeast across the area early this morning. This activity will

continue to move to southeast this morning gradually weakening

as it moves to the southeast. IFR conditions will be possible

with this activity across southeastern Kansas and western

Missouri with MVFR conditions to the east. Winds will be

variable today can could vary from south to north at times as

outflow from the convection moves through the area. This

activity will dissipated early this afternoon.



Scattered storms will be possible across portions of south

central Missouri this afternoon/early this evening, but the

better chances will be south and east of the area.



Additional showers and some embedded thunderstorms will move

into southern Missouri tonight into Friday morning. IFR to MVFR

conditions will be possible with this activity tonight/Friday

morning.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise