Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

402

FXUS63 KSGF 211113

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

613 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures with a warming trend into late week.

  Highs in the middle to upper 70s, near 80 are likely into the

  weekend. Mostly dry weather expected to persist.



- Medium to high confidence in above normal temperatures to

  persist through the end of October.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026



Ridging will continue to support dry and warmer than normal

conditions today and tonight. A few sprinkles are possible as

weak shortwave energy moves through, but as we have already seen

tonight, dry low to mid level air is preventing anything

measurable from reaching the surface.



Look for highs in the mid 70s today and lows in the mid 40s to

low 50s.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026



High pressure will continue to build through the weekend into

early next week according to ensemble data, with high

confidence in well above normal conditions (highs in the 70s to

around 80). No precip is expected in this time frame.



Toward the middle of next week around 10-15% of ensembles are

showing some rain over the area as a trough passes through the

area. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with all forecast

parameters due to model spread. For example, NBM 25-75th

percentile MaxT spread increases to around 15 degrees on Tuesday

and Wednesday next week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026



VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF

period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus