264

FXUS63 KSGF 260800

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

300 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (50-80%) return

  this evening and tonight, lingering through Sunday morning.

  Low potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding.



- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday

  through Tuesday. Additionally, heavy rainfall may accompany

  this system. Remaining uncertainties in the exact timing,

  locations, and hazards.



- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through mid to late

  next week. Additional potential for heavy rainfall and

  flooding.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025



Today-Tonight: Surface high pressure settles east of the region

today, with return flow behind the departing the high. Low-

level moisture will gradually be on the increase through today,

with embedded shortwave energy translating through broad

southwest flow in the mid- levels.



A bit cooler today with widespread cloud cover lingering behind

the frontal passage on Friday. Highs this afternoon reach into

the upper 60s to lower 70s. Most of this afternoon appears to be

dry before shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening

and tonight. Recent CAMs suggest a MCS to develop in the

vicinity of strengthening low-level flow and a MCV across

Oklahoma this afternoon. Trends support this activity weakening

with the loss of daytime instability as it lifts east/northeast

towards the Missouri/Arkansas vicinity. Nonetheless, it is likely

to still support showers and thunderstorms across southeast

Kansas and southern Missouri this evening into tonight. It

appears any severe threat should remain confined southwest of

the area. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms linger

through the overnight into Sunday morning. Heavy downpours and

efficient rainfall rates will accompany thunderstorms. The

potential for localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding

remain plausible given the saturated soils in place from

previous rainfall. However, widespread flooding in not

anticipated with general amounts limited to a half inch to an

inch. Localized higher amounts may approach 1.5 to 2.0 inches as

depicted in pockets by the HREF LPMM.



Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms gradually come to an

end through Sunday morning/early afternoon as mid-level energy

shifts east of the area. Much of the area will be dry by Sunday

afternoon, with high temperatures driven by how quickly cloud

cover clears the area. Where clouds are slow to clear in the

afternoon, highs will only reach into the middle to upper 60s.

If clouds do clear quicker, highs quickly reach into the lower

to middle 70s.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025



Monday-Tuesday: By Monday, stronger southwest flow overspreads

the central CONUS with low-level warm air advection streaming

northward. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30 mph can be

expected on Monday, with highs reaching into the lower 80s as a

large warm sector of a developing low pressure system

overspreads the region. Dewpoints soar into lower 60s. The

associated surface low rapidly develops across the Northern

Plains on Monday with shortwave energy ejecting out of the

desert southwest. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will

develop along the associated cold front that is progged to sweep

through the area overnight Monday into Tuesday. Guidance

continues to depict an environment supportive of strong to

severe thunderstorms, characterized by high instability and

strong shear. SPC continues to highlight the area with a Slight

Risk (2 of 5), while the Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) is on the

northwest fringes of the area. While there is still some

remaining uncertainties on exact timing and locations of

greatest threats, the general consensus is that a broken line

and clusters of thunderstorms move through the area, with a few

embedded supercell structures. While all hazards remain

plausible, the setup would favor wind and hail as the primary

threats. However, this will be better resolved over the coming

days as we hone in the details and CAMs begin to paint the full

picture. Additionally, areas of heavy rainfall and localized

flooding would remain a concern given the antecedent conditions.

Stay tuned for updates and changes to the forecast.



Wednesday-Friday: The trough supporting broad southwest flow

eventually lifts east out of the Southern Plains into mid-week,

with additional showers and thunderstorm chances (60-80%)

persisting through Wednesday and Thursday. This will further

amplify the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding through

late next week as areas see repeated rounds of rainfall.

Temperatures return to near normal, with highs in the upper 60s

to lower 70s, and lows in the 50s. Ensemble guidance suggest the

pattern breaks into next weekend, potentially providing some

relief from an active stretch of weather.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025



MVFR ceilings are building into the area overnight, with

ceilings around 1500 to 2500 feet. A period of IFR ceilings

around 700 to 900 feet appears to overcome KSGF and KBBG into

early Saturday morning. VFR ceilings return by 18Z on Saturday.

Winds light out of the northeast overnight, becoming more

easterly into Saturday afternoon. Rain chances increase on

Saturday evening/night in the later part of the TAF period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez