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Storm Impacting the Northwest U.S.; Fire Weather Conditions in Southern California; Severe Weather in the South

A Pacific storm is bringing areas of low elevation rain, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and high winds to the Northwest. Strong Santa Ana winds and very dry conditions are producing elevated to critical fire weather conditions in southern California. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas into western Tennessee. Read More >

    
                        
720
FXUS63 KSGF 171102
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
602 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to Significant fire danger today and Tuesday. The Red
Flag Warning for today has been expanded to cover all of
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Additional fire
weather headlines may be needed for Tuesday.

- Gusts of 40-50 mph expected Tuesday with stronger gusts
possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- The next round of showers will be Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. Light rain will change to light snow. No
snow accumulations.

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns return
Thursday and especially Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Very dry air (MinRH 15-25%) and gusty winds (Max gusts 30-40
mph) are expected today. Dry air will be fairly uniform across
the area, but winds will be strongest west of Hwy 65 and weakest
east of Hwy 63. Those winds will be out of the SSW. This results
in widespread significant fire weather concerns, causing the
expansion of the Red Flag Warning to cover all of SW MO and SE
KS.

Otherwise look for sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s today (warmest west).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Tuesday: The pressure gradient will tighten up as leeward
cyclogenesis spins up a surface low over the western Plains.
Stronger S-SW winds (Max gusts 35-50 mph, strongest W of Hwy
65) and greater moisture (MinRH 20-35%, lowest toward central
MO) will result in solid elevated and locally significant fire
weather concerns. Depending on how fire/fuels respond today,
additional Red Flag warnings may be needed. Wind advisories are
also likely over at least the areas W of Hwy 65. Look for high
temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday:

Models are in good general agreement in occluding the leeward
cyclone as over NE KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
deepening the surface low to 985-990mb as it tracks across NW
MO on Wednesday.

Winds: The most likely impact for our area will be
strong winds out the south Tuesday night, then veering out of
the west and northwest through the day following the passage of
a dry line and cold front. There is some variation with exact
low strength, track, and occlusion location which brings some
uncertainty in wind fields. NBM max gust probabilities for > 45
mph are generally 50-100% (highest over the peak of the Ozarks
plateau), making a wind advisory likely. Probabilities for gusts
> 60 mph are in the 20-40% range over the plateau. If stronger
wind fields and/or greater mixing can be realized, a High Wind
Warning may be required.

Precip: The airmass starts out Tuesday night fairly dry and a
dry line, followed closely by a cold front, move in from the
west late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before upper
level cold air moves in. This results in weak lapse rates and
limited instability for any convection that can initiate in the
dry airmass as the dry line moves in. Once the closely following
cold front moves in, there will be an inversion around 700-600
mb that will prohibit deep convection. Thus, no severe weather
is currently expected. In fact, for Tuesday night into Wednesday
afternoon, the forecast is generally dry with PoPs <= 15.

Fire weather: Moisture drops behind the morning dryline, but
quickly increases back to 50-60% over the west. Over the east,
the moisture may be slower to move in behind the dry line,
possibly allowing for values of 30-40% to linger for a few hours
east of Hwy 65 Wednesday afternoon. Combined with the strong
winds, this may lead to an area of solidly elevated fire
concerns over the east.

Wednesday night:

Very similar to the system late last week, wrap around moisture
and cooler air will move in Wednesday evening into Wednesday
night, resulting in a period of snow rain showers that will turn
to snow. Just like last Friday night, lows will be around
freezing so no accumulation is expected due to warm ground
temps.

Thursday:

Could see some elevated fire weather Thursday, but light precip
from the night before combined with high temps in the 50s should
prohibit anything too concerning even as minRH values of 20-30%
are expected. Winds will be from the NW at 10-15 mph gusting to
15-25 mph.

Friday:

Warmer Friday with highs in the 60s. Elevated to significant
fire weather is a concern given minRH values of 20-30% and max
southerly gusts of 30-40 mph.

Next weekend:

Still plenty of uncertainty with details, but a pair of
shortwaves may bring showers and thunderstorms Friday night
(~40%) and again Saturday night into Sunday (~50%). Still a long
way out with limited confidence, but will monitor for severe
potential given low end probabilities from CSU ML and CIPS
output, but nothing concerning at this time.

Look for highs in the 60s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Gusty winds will be observed today into tonight (and each day
through late week). LLWS will also be an issue tonight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

The Red Flag Warning for today was expanded to cover all areas
along and west of Highway 63.

For specific local forecasts, see our forecast webpages or the
Fire Weather Planning Forecast.

In general, today will see the most significant fire weather
conditions with very dry air and gusty winds. Worst conditions
west of Hwy 65. Expanded the Red Flag warning to cover portions
of south-central MO. Winds will be borderline or even a little
below traditional criteria over south-central MO, but RH values
will be 15-20% and fuels have been burning lately.

Tuesday will see stronger winds but higher minRH. The one
exception for the RH trend will be over areas NE of
Springfield through central MO where values will drop to 20-25%.
May need a Red Flag Warning for some areas, but at least seeing
solidly elevated fire weather conditions across the entire area.

Wednesday: Tricky forecast given a system moving through. Very
strong winds (easily gusting > 45mph , possibly > 60 mph). RH
will be lowest at 30-40% east of Hwy 65 and 40-60% elsewhere.
Little to no precipitation is expected until light rain/snow
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Thursday: Dry (20-40 RH) but with high temps in the 50s. Sunny
skies and breezy winds. Thinking cooler temps, lighter winds,
and recent light precip the night before will prevent too many
concerns for Thursday, but may serve to dry fuels for a more
significant fire day Friday.

Friday: Elevated to significant fire concerns. Highs in the 60s,
minRH 20-30%, and southerly winds gusting to 25-40 mph
(strongest west) are in the forecast.

Next weekend: Greater moisture, lighter winds, and 40-50%
chances for rain will reduce fire concerns.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Soria