720

FXUS63 KSGF 171102

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

602 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Elevated to Significant fire danger today and Tuesday. The Red

  Flag Warning for today has been expanded to cover all of

  southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Additional fire

  weather headlines may be needed for Tuesday.



- Gusts of 40-50 mph expected Tuesday with stronger gusts

  possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.



- The next round of showers will be Wednesday evening into

  Wednesday night. Light rain will change to light snow. No

  snow accumulations.



- Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns return

  Thursday and especially Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



Very dry air (MinRH 15-25%) and gusty winds (Max gusts 30-40

mph) are expected today. Dry air will be fairly uniform across

the area, but winds will be strongest west of Hwy 65 and weakest

east of Hwy 63. Those winds will be out of the SSW. This results

in widespread significant fire weather concerns, causing the

expansion of the Red Flag Warning to cover all of SW MO and SE

KS.



Otherwise look for sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to

upper 70s today (warmest west).



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



Tuesday: The pressure gradient will tighten up as leeward

cyclogenesis spins up a surface low over the western Plains.

Stronger S-SW winds (Max gusts 35-50 mph, strongest W of Hwy

65) and greater moisture (MinRH 20-35%, lowest toward central

MO) will result in solid elevated and locally significant fire

weather concerns. Depending on how fire/fuels respond today,

additional Red Flag warnings may be needed. Wind advisories are

also likely over at least the areas W of Hwy 65. Look for high

temps in the mid 70s to low 80s.



Tuesday night and Wednesday:



Models are in good general agreement in occluding the leeward

cyclone as over NE KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,

deepening the surface low to 985-990mb as it tracks across NW

MO on Wednesday.



Winds: The most likely impact for our area will be

strong winds out the south Tuesday night, then veering out of

the west and northwest through the day following the passage of

a dry line and cold front. There is some variation with exact

low strength, track, and occlusion location which brings some

uncertainty in wind fields. NBM max gust probabilities for > 45

mph are generally 50-100% (highest over the peak of the Ozarks

plateau), making a wind advisory likely. Probabilities for gusts

> 60 mph are in the 20-40% range over the plateau. If stronger

wind fields and/or greater mixing can be realized, a High Wind

Warning may be required.



Precip: The airmass starts out Tuesday night fairly dry and a

dry line, followed closely by a cold front, move in from the

west late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before upper

level cold air moves in. This results in weak lapse rates and

limited instability for any convection that can initiate in the

dry airmass as the dry line moves in. Once the closely following

cold front moves in, there will be an inversion around 700-600

mb that will prohibit deep convection. Thus, no severe weather

is currently expected. In fact, for Tuesday night into Wednesday

afternoon, the forecast is generally dry with PoPs <= 15.



Fire weather: Moisture drops behind the morning dryline, but

quickly increases back to 50-60% over the west. Over the east,

the moisture may be slower to move in behind the dry line,

possibly allowing for values of 30-40% to linger for a few hours

east of Hwy 65 Wednesday afternoon. Combined with the strong

winds, this may lead to an area of solidly elevated fire

concerns over the east.



Wednesday night:



Very similar to the system late last week, wrap around moisture

and cooler air will move in Wednesday evening into Wednesday

night, resulting in a period of snow rain showers that will turn

to snow. Just like last Friday night, lows will be around

freezing so no accumulation is expected due to warm ground

temps.



Thursday:



Could see some elevated fire weather Thursday, but light precip

from the night before combined with high temps in the 50s should

prohibit anything too concerning even as minRH values of 20-30%

are expected. Winds will be from the NW at 10-15 mph gusting to

15-25 mph.



Friday:



Warmer Friday with highs in the 60s. Elevated to significant

fire weather is a concern given minRH values of 20-30% and max

southerly gusts of 30-40 mph.



Next weekend:



Still plenty of uncertainty with details, but a pair of

shortwaves may bring showers and thunderstorms Friday night

(~40%) and again Saturday night into Sunday (~50%). Still a long

way out with limited confidence, but will monitor for severe

potential given low end probabilities from CSU ML and CIPS

output, but nothing concerning at this time.



Look for highs in the 60s both days.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



Gusty winds will be observed today into tonight (and each day

through late week). LLWS will also be an issue tonight.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025



The Red Flag Warning for today was expanded to cover all areas

along and west of Highway 63.



For specific local forecasts, see our forecast webpages or the

Fire Weather Planning Forecast.



In general, today will see the most significant fire weather

conditions with very dry air and gusty winds. Worst conditions

west of Hwy 65. Expanded the Red Flag warning to cover portions

of south-central MO. Winds will be borderline or even a little

below traditional criteria over south-central MO, but RH values

will be 15-20% and fuels have been burning lately.



Tuesday will see stronger winds but higher minRH. The one

exception for the RH trend will be over areas NE of

Springfield through central MO where values will drop to 20-25%.

May need a Red Flag Warning for some areas, but at least seeing

solidly elevated fire weather conditions across the entire area.



Wednesday: Tricky forecast given a system moving through. Very

strong winds (easily gusting > 45mph , possibly > 60 mph). RH

will be lowest at 30-40% east of Hwy 65 and 40-60% elsewhere.

Little to no precipitation is expected until light rain/snow

Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.



Thursday: Dry (20-40 RH) but with high temps in the 50s. Sunny

skies and breezy winds. Thinking cooler temps, lighter winds,

and recent light precip the night before will prevent too many

concerns for Thursday, but may serve to dry fuels for a more

significant fire day Friday.



Friday: Elevated to significant fire concerns. Highs in the 60s,

minRH 20-30%, and southerly winds gusting to 25-40 mph

(strongest west) are in the forecast.



Next weekend: Greater moisture, lighter winds, and 40-50%

chances for rain will reduce fire concerns.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for

     KSZ073-097-101.

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for

     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus

FIRE WEATHER...Soria