Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

925

FXUS63 KSGF 221740

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon.



- Unseasonably warm to near record temperatures today through

  Thursday.



- Next best rain chances (20-60%) return late Thursday into

  Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 203 AM CDT Tue Oct

22 2024



Scattered convection associated with upper-level shortwave

energy pushed through southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri

early this morning before dissipating as it encountered drier

air. A few CAMs do tend to reignite some showers across the

eastern Ozarks this afternoon with diurnal heating, though

confidence is low (PoPs of 10-20%), and most areas remain clear

and dry today.



Of note are the near record-breaking temperatures today through

Thursday. Warm air advection and anomalously high 850 mb

temperatures will push highs today into the mid to upper 80s. By

Wednesday afternoon, another shortwave will dig into central

Missouri, which will push slightly cooler air into the northern

CWA. Southerly winds return on Thursday, which will aid in

additional warm air advection and near record temperatures,

particularly across western Missouri and our Kansas counties.

See the Climate section below for further details.



These warm temperatures combined with southwesterly wind gusts

up to 20-25 mph and minimum RH values in the 25-35% range will

produce Elevated fire danger mainly along and north of the I-44

corridor this afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 203 AM

CDT Tue Oct 22 2024



Ensemble clusters continue to show weak shortwave energy

transiting the central CONUS Thursday afternoon, but exhibit

notable differences in magnitude. The latest NBM init did come

in with medium-end (40-60%) PoPs Thursday night into Friday

morning mainly along and north of I-44, though with only modest

moisture return and lift, potential rain amounts appear light at

this point. Probabilities of amounts greater than a tenth range

from 30-50% for this area, and probabilities of amounts greater

than half an inch drop below 20%.



Temperatures look to cool slightly Friday into the weekend with

the passage of a weak cold front, though likely still remain a

bit above the climatological normal. NBM percentile data support

highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday and Sunday.



With broad surface high pressure overspreading the Midwest and

northeast this weekend, rain chances appear minimal on Saturday

and Sunday. While ensembles do begin to diverge more

significantly beyond this point, there is some indication in a

pattern change that could potentially lead to better rain

chances next week. The Climate Prediction Center likewise

forecasts moderate probabilities (40-60%) of above normal

precipitation across the Missouri Ozarks in the October 29-Nov

4 period, along with continued above average temperatures. Stay

tuned for future forecast updates.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024



Amidst clear skies and VFR conditions through the whole period,

breezy winds and a fropa are the main aviation concerns this

TAF period. SW`ly winds will be moderate at 15-20 kts with

observed gusts already approaching 25-30 kts at times. These

will diminish to 5-10 kts after 00Z, in which a fropa will

shift winds to NNE`ly between 06-14Z. Some weak LLWS may occur

with the fropa, but generally <30 kts. Winds will then pick up

again after 14Z.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024





Record High Temperatures:



October 22:        Forecast High

KSGF: 85/2020            85

KJLN: 86/1947            87

KVIH: 86/1903            83



October 23:

KJLN: 86/2022            82

KUNO: 84/1963            82



October 24:

KSGF: 84/1939            83

KJLN: 88/2003            88



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Price

CLIMATE...Didio