Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

788

FXUS63 KSGF 220535

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1135 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Below normal temperatures and dry conditions will occur across

  the area through the end of the week.



- Warming trend through the weekend, with highs near to above

  normal.



- Rain chances increase into the middle part of next week.

  Uncertainty remains on the timing of best rain chances.



- Increasing confidence on below normal temperatures returning

  into mid next week and early December.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024



Through Tonight: Dry northwest flow continues across the region

with an upper-level low stationed across the Great Lakes.

Meanwhile, a ridge holds strong across the Rockies. This pattern

has kept the area cool and dry today, with highs in the 40s.

This is generally around 10 degrees below normal. Meanwhile,

dewpoints in 20s is keeping relative humidity values as low as

35 to 45 percent. Gusty northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph make

it feel a bit chillier despite clear skies. Gusty winds are

expected to subside through the early evening. For tonight,

overnight lows fall into the middle to upper 20s across the

area. Some cloud cover building into the northeastern portions

of the area may keep lows a few degrees warmer.



Friday: By Friday, surface high pressure slowly shifts east

towards the area with subtle mid-level height rises returning

across the south and west. This will set the stage for varying

highs on Friday from middle 40s (north and east) to lower 50s

(south and west). Lighter winds will accompany the gradual

rebound of temperatures on Friday.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024



Saturday-Sunday: As we progress into the weekend, the ridge will

gradually shift into the region, supporting a warming trend.

Highs by Saturday reach into the middle to upper 50s, with some

locations in the lower 60s across far southeast Kansas and

southwest Missouri. By Sunday, a shift in the upper-level

pattern begins to take shape as flow becomes more zonal in

nature. Weak shortwave energy and an associated surface low

push into the Central Plains on Sunday, with gusty southerly

winds ahead of this system. Strong warm air advection into the

area supports highs reaching into the 60s to near 70 on Sunday,

which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. However, the warm

temperatures will be short-lived as an associated cold front

sweeps through the area on Sunday night into Monday. Moisture

remains limited with this passage, with most ensemble members

depicting a dry frontal passage. Rain chances remain less than

20 percent across the eastern portions of the area through

Monday.



Monday-Thursday: Behind the dry frontal passage, cooler air is

expected to filter into the area. There remains some

uncertainty on the timing and extent of the cooler air through

at least Monday with NBM temperature spreads around 5 to 10+

degrees between the 25th-75th percentiles. Nonetheless, the

surface high pressure and cooler temperatures settle into the

area by Tuesday and Wednesday with varying highs from middle 40s

(north) to lower 50s (south). This remains anywhere from 5 to

10 degrees below normal as we head into late November.

Meanwhile, the pattern becomes more variable into mid to late

next week (including Thanksgiving) with regards to a trough

translating out of the western CONUS. The GEFS continues to

highlight a more progressive trough compared to the other

ensemble suites. With that in mind, that remains uncertainty on

the extent and timing of potential rain chances ahead of and

through the holiday next Thursday. NBM continues to highlight

30-50% chances next Wednesday, before falling off to 20-40% into

Thursday. The NBM indicates precipitation type to likely remain

all rain given the current forecast temperatures and

environment. Little to no ensemble members suggest any wintry

precipitation at this time. Expect the forecast to be refined as

we progress the upcoming weekend into early next week.



Lastly, it is worth mentioning that confidence is increasing in

below normal temperatures in the later part of November (late

next week) into early December. The CPC 8 to 14 day highlights

this signal. Further investigation into the GEFS, ECMWF, and

GEPS ensembles depict temperature anomalies at least 5 to 10

degrees below normal. For reference, average highs during the

identified time period are between 48 to 53, with average lows

of 29 to 33. Continue to monitor the forecast as we hone in on

the details of a potential cold pattern ahead.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1134 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024



Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the

TAF period with passing high clouds at times. Winds will remain

light out of the west to northwest. Some brief low level wind

shear is possible early in the TAF period however not strong

enough to include at this time.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Burchfield