Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

207

FXUS63 KSGF 180544

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Significant fire danger is expected today along and west of

  the I-49 corridor, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for

  portions of western Missouri and far southeast Kansas until

  7PM tonight.



- Elsewhere, elevated to locally significant fire weather

  conditions today, which continue into Friday.



- 15-30% chances for light rain Monday evening into early

  Tuesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024



Current conditions and synoptic overview:



A surface high sits to our east over the central Ohio River Valley,

and a westward tilt with height is evident as the center of the

ridge aloft sits nearly overhead. A tight southwest-to-northeast-

oriented pressure gradient extends from our beloved Missouri Ozarks

through the Plains to a developing system in central Colorado.

Amidst southerly winds, weak temperature advection is bringing a

small increase in low-level temperatures that is translating to

warmer surface temperatures than the past couple days. Moisture

advection is also minimal-to-nonexistent; despite the upstream air

originating from the Gulf, there is no moisture transport associated

with this southerly flow pattern. Skies are clear and the air is dry.



The surface high pressure and associated ridge will continue to

slide northeast through the day tomorrow, while the system in the

Rockies pushes southeast through the High Plains. A persistent low

just off the mid-Atlantic coast will push the high into New England

and the pressure gradient over our area will weaken through the

overnight hours tonight and through the day tomorrow.



High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid-60s in the

eastern Ozarks and the low 70s in the high terrain and areas north

of I-44. Lows tonight will dip into the mid-30s in the eastern

Ozarks and the low 40s through the rest of southwest MO/southeast

KS. Tomorrow will look similar but a few degrees warmer- upper 60s

in the eastern Ozarks, mid-70s through the rest of the region.



One item of note: after two nights of temperatures well-below

freezing in the eastern Ozarks, we are considering the growing

season over after a hard freeze. No more freeze products will be

issued for the season.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024



This weekend will see weaker winds and a little higher RH

values, decreasing fire weather concerns. Highs will be in the

70s.



An upper level system is shown moving north of the area early

next week, which may lead to some rain on Monday. The airmass

is fairly dry though, which limits chances for rain to 15-40%

(highest northwest) and amounts should be light. NBM

probability of >=0.5" of rain is less than 20%.



Highs Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to around

80.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024



The region remains under the influence of surface high pressure

and is on the western edge of an upper level ridge. This will

allow for VFR flight conditions through the forecast period

along with surface winds from around 5 to 10 kts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024



Fire weather is the name of the game in the short term, with

significant fire weather concerns both today and tomorrow, though

concerns are a little higher today than tomorrow. Generously-

positioned satellite mesosectors have been helping us detect fires,

and hotspots have been popping for several hours at the time of

writing. Fire detection that early in the day usually bodes for an

active afternoon.



A Red Flag Warning is in effect for our southeast Kansas counties

and three of our western Missouri counties until 7 PM tonight. A Red

Flag Warning seems unlikely to be issued again tomorrow due to wind

speeds remaining below threshold. It is worth noting that fuel

moistures are below 10% in many areas, which provide ample burning

material. This morning`s update of the Drought Monitor indicates an

expansion to the northeast of D3 (Extreme) drought, and with no rain

in the forecast, fuels will likely remain ripe for burning.



Moisture:

The low-levels have been incredibly efficient in mixing

unusually dry air (mid-level dew point depressions around 45

degrees) down to the surface, and most models have been

significantly overestimating surface dew points. The 12Z sounding

recorded the record lowest precipitable water value on record for

the date of October 17. The HRRR seems to be doing the best, picking

up on a pocket of dry air in the higher terrain around the Branson

area. We`ve gone with a special in-house superblend for dew points,

which are reflecting the widespread relative humidity values of 30%

or less, which will decrease further through the afternoon

(potentially as low as 10% in some areas).



Winds:



With the strong pressure gradient across the Plains, winds

are gusty, especially in the west. There`s been recorded gusts

between 20-25mph through the late morning and early afternoon hours

at Pittsburg, Fort Scott, and Joplin. However, the strongest winds

are certain to remain west of our area since we`re located right on

the edge of the high and the fringes of where the pressure gradient

tightens. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph will continue into this

evening, and may reappear in our Kansas counties tomorrow. Winds

have also been a little gusty in south-central Missouri, with

consistent 15-20mph gusts in Osage Beach and Rolla. Winds will

weaken tomorrow as the high moves to the east and the pressure

gradient weakens some.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Camden

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Hatch

FIRE WEATHER...Camden