Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

244

FXUS63 KSGF 071131

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

531 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will

  continue through Saturday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower

  70s.



- A strong cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and

  evening, resulting in gusty winds Saturday into Sunday and

  much cooler conditions early Sunday into early Tuesday. Highs

  in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills mainly in the

  teens early Monday.



- Increasing confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on

  Tuesday, with dry and gusty conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 112 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025



A "cold" front is just NW of the CWA early this morning, but

will only result in winds shifting to the northwest and a drier,

yet still warm, airmass. Look for highs in the low 70s today

with afternoon RH values of 30-40% under clearing skies. Winds

will be light.



Quiet weather continues tonight with lows in the 40s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 112 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025



As has been well advertised, a pattern change will bring much

cooler conditions behind a cold front that moves through

Saturday afternoon and evening. The colder pattern is only

temporary, with above normal temperatures expected to return by

mid week.



Saturday: As the upper trough and cold front move through, the

dry airmass will prevent rain over most of the area, but central

MO does have a 15-25% chance for very light rainfall. Greatest

potential is for most areas to remain dry. Look for highs in the

mid 60s to low 70s. Winds are forecast to gust up to 25-35 mph

in the afternoon and evening in front of and behind the cold

front, so directions will be out of the southwest to northwest.



Saturday night and Sunday: Temperatures will fall into the 30s

by Sunday morning, with wind chill values in the 20s. High temps

Sunday in the upper 30s (north) to mid 40s (south) will feel

colder due to 10-20 mph winds gusting to 20-30 mph, resulting in

mid day wind chills in the 30s. Additional upper level energy

will push through the area as even colder air (850mb temps of -5

to -10 C) moves in. This may result in some sprinkles and/or

flurries late Saturday night into Sunday morning, but not

looking for measurable amounts at this time.



Sunday night and Monday: This will be the coldest time period as

the cold airmass in place late Sunday pairs with clearing skies

and surface high pressure pushing into the west. Look for low

temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s. Winds of 5-15 mph

will result in wind chill values from the upper single digits to

mid teens Monday morning. Look for highs in the low to mid 40s

Monday with mid day wind chills in the 30s.



Tuesday: Fire weather conditions are a concern. As the deep

upper trough quickly pushes east Monday night into Tuesday, a

surface ridge will move through and a surface trough will

approach from the NW. Wind fields will be strong on Tuesday as

much warmer low level air is advected in from the southwest.

This will be a dry airmass with minimum RH values of 20-30%,

possible lower. Models are showing 850mb temps increasing by

15-20 C between 18Z Monday (-5 to -10C) and 18Z Tuesday

(10-15C). Winds needed to advect this airmass are currently

forecast to be from the southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to 25-35

mph, but potential exists for gusts >=40 mph (NBM V5

probabilities of 60-80%) and >=45 mph (30-50%) mainly along and

west of Hwy 65. Look for highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. If

the stronger winds and drier airmass does occur, elevated to

possibly critical fire weather conditions will be possible given

no appreciable precipitation and a dry airmass being in places

for a few days prior.



Wednesday and Thursday will be back to well above normal

temperatures with highs in the 60s. No rain is in the forecast.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025



VFR conditions and relatively light winds will persist through

the TAF period. Look for gusty winds and a strong cold front to

move through on Saturday, resulting in much colder conditions

into early next week.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Titus