Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

170

FXUS63 KSGF 091735

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Slightly cooler temperatures and mostly sunny skies are

  expected through today with temperatures around seasonable

  normals.



- Above average temperatures in the 80s are then likely (>75%

  chance) to return to the region late this week into the

  weekend. Mostly dry weather is also expected, with a few

  exceptions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025



Water vapor imagery shows a pretty dry airmass over the region,

with satellite only showing a few scattered mid-level clouds

filtering into western Missouri as of 2AM. We`ll start to get

more northwesterly flow aloft later today as an upper level

ridge begins building over the central Plains, however

temperatures will be pretty similar to yesterday`s, with

afternoon highs around the mid 70s. With the area still situated

on the southern edge of a high pressure system, we can expect

dry conditions to continue through today.



With the scattered clouds mostly filtering out of the western

CWA by tonight and winds staying generally light (especially

over the eastern Ozarks), overnight lows will range in the low

to mid 50s along/west of Hwy 65, dropping down into the mid to

upper 40s east of Hwy 65 (lower end of that range over the

eastern Ozarks).



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025



By Friday morning, the upper level ridge over the Plains will

continue building as an upper Low begins to push onto the

Pacific Northwest. A weakening low level jet progged to

diagonally bisect central Missouri, coupled with isentropic

uplift will lead to chances (10-30%) of isolated showers/thunderstorms

generally along/north of Highway 54 - however the better

chances (30-40%) continue to remain north of us where the LLJ is

slightly stronger.



With midlevel heights rising as the upper ridge builds to our

west and slowly pushes east, temperatures will begin to warm

back up, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, and a few locations

potentially reaching the low 80s (along/west of I-49).



As the upper ridge continues pushing east over the region, the

weekend will see a warming trend, with highs reaching the mid

80s by Sunday (5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year).



Towards the beginning of next week, models show an upper level

trough approaching the region from the west, bringing additional

limited chances (15-25%) of showers/thunderstorms. There`s a lot

of uncertainty regarding the progression of this system, timing,

frontal positioning, etc., so we`ll have to iron out the details

as we get closer to this timeframe.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025



A few showers were moving across the region to the south

southeast thanks to some middle level energy. Despite VFR flight

conditions, a few showers will remain possible into this

evening. Southeasterly surface winds will continue with speeds

from 5 to 10 kts.



Despite ridging building into the area Friday, additional

middle level energy may bring additional showers or an isolated

storm to the region Friday morning and to a lesser extend Friday

afternoon. Coverage an timing confidence are limited and was

not included in the forecast.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Hatch