Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

151

FXUS63 KSGF 261832

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

132 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record high temperatures this afternoon with highs in the

  upper 80s to lower 90s.



- Elevated to locally Significant fire danger today with hot,

  dry, and windy conditions. Additional Elevated fire danger

  through the upcoming weekend.



- Mostly light showers and a few thunderstorms move through the

  area tonight into Friday morning. Very low chance (5%) of an

  isolated strong storm capable of producing dime to quarter

  sized hail.



- An active pattern builds into the region by the middle of next

  week, featuring daily rain chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026



Through Tonight:

An upper-level ridge continues to gradually shift east into the

central CONUS this afternoon, with a compact shortwave coming

off the lee side of the Rockies into the Central Plains. The

presence of this strong ridge has supported 850 mb temperatures

reaching between 18 to 21 deg C. This correlates to high

temperatures reaching well into the upper 80s to lower 90s this

afternoon. For reference, this is 25 to 30 degrees above average

for late March. As a result, record highs are likely in jeopardy

this afternoon. Meanwhile, a developing low pressure system and

tightening pressure gradient has aided in strong southwesterly

winds at the surface. Peak wind gusts through the afternoon look

to remain around 25 to 35 mph, with occasional gusts approaching

40 mph. The strong southwesterly flow at the surface is

attempting to advect in low-level moisture, as seen with

dewpoint observations in the middle 50s to near 60.



However, there still remains some dry air in place, particularly

aloft, that will be mixed down through the afternoon. This will

allow relative humidity (RH) values to drop through the

remainder of the day. RH values fall to around 30 to 40 percent

areawide, with some localized locations falling to around 25

percent. Observations of RAWS site 10-hr fuel moisture between

7% and 10% along with ongoing wildfires and prescribed burns

suggest fuels are still receptive to fire starts. Given this

setup of hot, dry, and gusty conditions, there remains an

Elevated to locally Significant fire danger this afternoon. No

Fire headlines are expected at this time given the borderline

criteria, with burning remaining confined to professionals.



Attention then turns towards the approach of an associated cold

front tonight. Previous forecasts remain on track with a strong

cap in place over the area. This cap will inhibit any convection

from developing through this evening. As we progress into

tonight, the cold front will eventually provide forcing to break

through the cap. However, the environment overnight is rather

modest. Keying in on a few parameters of interest, mid-level

lapse rates (7.5-8.0 C/km) remain favorable in the vicinity of

elevated instability (~500-1000 J/kg). Dynamics remain strong

with plenty of shear. This environment could support a few

organized thunderstorms, with the primary hazard being hail.

Confidence remains low in this potential and is captured by the

latest SPC Marginal (1 of 5) Risk. Current CAMs and trends would

suggest limited extent of thunderstorm coverage, let alone

strong to severe thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect scattered

showers (60-90% chances) to move through the area overnight into

early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts remain limited, with the

highest amounts focused along and north of Highway 54 corridor

into central MO. This area could see some amounts around two to

four tenths of an inch, with amounts quickly dropping off to

around a tenth of an inch or less into southern MO.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026



Friday:

Rain chances (20-50%) linger through Friday morning across

southern MO as the front clears the area. Behind the front, much

cooler temperatures build into the area with highs only into the

middle 50s on Friday afternoon. This will be accompanied by

gusty north winds around 25 to 35 mph that advect in a dry

airmass. The combination of gusty winds and lingering cloud

cover will make middle 50s feel even cooler. Meanwhile, the

drier airmass will nudge RH values around 30 to 40 percent back

into the area, with localized values dipping to around 25

percent in far southeast KS. Like previous days, Elevated Fire

weather conditions are in the forecast for Friday afternoon.



A cold night ahead on Friday night, as clouds clear from north

to south through the evening. This will support radiational

cooling as high pressure sinks into the region. Lows Friday

night are progged to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s

areawide, with the potential for frost/freeze. While we are

currently not issuing frost/freeze headlines, it goes without

saying that the growing season is nearing and upon us, posing

the potential for some impacts to sensitive vegetation. Continue

to monitor for updates as we assess this potential over the

next 24 hours.



Saturday-Sunday:

Ensembles continue to highlight the re-establishment of the

upper-level ridge into the weekend, supporting a warming trend

into Sunday and early next week. The dry airmass will feature

reduced RHs into the 20 to 30 percent range, in addition to

increasing winds. This will result in additional Elevated fire

weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday. The current forecast

suggests highs in the 60s on Saturday and 70s on Sunday.



Next Week:

Confidence is high in above average temperatures persisting into

early next week, with broad southwest flow gradually taking

shape over the region. This would support a potential active

pattern towards the beginning of April. While there remains some

variance across the guidance on timing and strength of synoptic

features, the general consensus leans towards above normal

precipitation through mid to late next week. This would be

welcoming to the area given recent dry conditions and lingering

drought.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026



VFR flight conditions through this evening ahead of an

approaching system. Strong southwest winds through today.

Sustained winds at 10 to 20 knots, with wind gusts approaching

25 to 35 knots. Clouds will gradually be on the increase after

sunset into the overnight hours. Mid to low-level clouds

overspread the area overnight, with MVFR ceilings around 1500 to

3000 feet developing. Additionally, winds will shift on the

frontal passage, generally between 06-12Z. Winds become

northerly, with gusts persisting around 20 to 30 knots into

Friday morning. Meanwhile, scattered showers overspread the area

along and behind the frontal passage. There remains some

uncertainty on the extent of coverage, with PROB30 groups

capturing the potential through Friday morning. MVFR to some

instances of IFR may accompany this activity moving through.

MVFR ceilings persist post-frontal into the later part of the

TAF period.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Record High Temperatures:



March 26:

KSGF: 82/2020

KJLN: 86/1910

KVIH: 83/2020

KUNO: 86/2020



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Perez

LONG TERM...Perez

AVIATION...Perez

CLIMATE...Titus