Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

775

FXUS63 KSGF 270643

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

143 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy fog through this morning, especially southeast of

  I-44. 40-60% chance for visibilities to drop below 1 mile.



- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today (highest

  chances southeast of I-44). Marginal risk for excessive

  rainfall.



- Additional rain chances through the end of the week and

  weekend. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall and localized

  flooding for locations that see repeated rounds of rainfall.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026



Early morning observations showed much of the Ozarks under

stratus and continued southeasterly flow. This was occurring

thanks to weak upper level flow as a strong upper low was

nearly anchored on the west coast. The continued south and

southeasterly flow through the day that brought rain to much of

the region also brought increasing PW values with the 00Z

sounding at 1.62in, up from 0.90 on the 12z sounding. Scattered

to isolated showers were moving from southeast to northwest

early this morning across portions of the region mainly along

and south of I-44.



With the increased PW`s, the rainfall from yesterday and wet

ground, where clouds can clear, visibilities have fallen to a

mile or less for some isolated locations thanks in part to the

light winds as well. As cloud cover moves over the region,

visibilities improve but will monitor through sunrise for any

increased coverage and duration of dense fog for any products.

Short range ensembles have continued to show 40-60% chance of

visibilities dropping below one mile mainly along and south of

I-44 and mostly east of Highway 65.



The upper low across the western US will make little eastward

progress today, however, upper level energy will round the

bottom of the upper trough and move into the Plains.



Short range models and ensembles develop showers and

thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening primarily to the

southwest of Springfield. With the ample moisture over the

region, rainfall will be fairly efficient with slow moving

showers and storms. Overall, while most areas should expect

0.1in to 0.25in of rain, very localized amounts closer to 1 to

1.5 inches could occur for localized areas southwest of

Springfield. With very low shear forecast storms are expected to

remain non-severe. Locations from Springfield and points north

and east will see much less rainfall chances. Despite the cloud

cover and showers across the Ozarks today, southerly flow will

help bring warmer temperatures with most areas reaching the

upper 70s to lower 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026



Rain chances will continue for the Ozarks from Thursday into

the weekend. The upper low over the west will continue block the

pattern until it begins to weaken, fill and lift north into far

western Canada by early next week. As this occurs, upper level

ridging will develop in the Plains and Ozarks, but lingering

moisture and pieces of energy roughing the upper low will keep

shower and storm potential for the region through the weekend

and into early nest week. By Tuesday, an upper low will dive

south across the Great Lakes and into the central Appalachians

before lifting to the northeast by the end of next week.



Upper level patters in these type of stagnant regimes can

forecasting times and durations of rainfall difficult,

especially with regard to global model output. As a result,

showers tend to be more scattered. Localized heavy rainfall will

remain a possibility, with the potential for multiple rounds of

rainfall which resulted in marginal risks for excessive

rainfall. Total rainfall amounts through the week are forecast

by the NBM to be from 1 to 1.25 inches or less with areas of the

eastern Ozarks and central Missouri seeing the least rains,

possibly less than a quarter of an inch.



Temperatures will be impacted as a result of rainfall and cloud

cover but highs in the 70s to lower 80s will be common most

days.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026



Scattered showers have dissipated, with overcast skies expected

to persist across much of the area. Lower IFR to MVFR ceilings

overspread the area overnight, impacting KSGF and KBBG into

Wednesday morning. Ceilings as low as 500 to 1500 feet are

likely, with a period of ceilings dropping to LIFR at 300 feet

at KBBG. This will be accompanied by reduced visibilities as fog

builds into portions of the area. Reduced visibilities as low

as a quarter to a half mile at KBBG, with lower confidence on

the extent of fog to impact KSGF. Any fog that impacts the TAF

sites will dissipate into mid- morning on Wednesday, with

widespread cloud cover persisting. Light east- southeast winds

through the period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Perez