Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

182

FXUS63 KSGF 051041 RRC

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED

National Weather Service Springfield MO

441 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and scattered storms will continue along and southeast

  of I-44 this rest of the overnight hours. The storms will

  continue to end from from northwest to southeast this morning.

  Lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main risk,

  though an isolated strong storm with hail up to the size of

  dimes may occur.



- Drizzle and areas of fog will be possible after the heavy

  rainfall ends early this morning.



- Another cold front will move into the area late Friday and

  through the area on Saturday. Severe storms will once again be

  be possible from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

  There will the potential for hail to the size of two inches,

  damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a tornado risk with this

  activity.



- Another system will bring a chance of strong to severe storms

  the middle of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026



An area of showers with scattered thunderstorms continue to move

east across the area, generally east of an Anderson to

Springfield to Camdenton to Eldon Missouri line early this

morning as an upper level trough moves east through area. A

front remains located across northwest Arkansas across southern

Missouri this morning, generally near I-44. There could still

be some small hail and maybe a strong storm over the next few

hours but instability has decreased and the overall severe risk

is decreasing for the risk of the night. Locally heavy rainfall

will occur with the storms overnight, but the thunderstorms are

becoming more scattered in nature so the heavy rainfall will be

more localized the next several hours. There could still be some

localized flooding where heavy rain takes over locations that

got the heavier rain on Wednesday.



The showers and scattered storms will continue to slowly end

from northwest to southeast this morning and should be out of

the area by mid day, if not sooner. Behind the rain tonight,

some fog and drizzle will be possible in the mid morning hours

today there could be some potential for some pockets of dense

fog at times.



The warm front will lift back to the north this afternoon and

evening. There could be some scattered showers and storms along

the front and the front should move north fairly quickly as an

upper level tough digs into the southwestern U.S. and brings

southwest upper level flow to the area. Better coverage could

occur across east central Kansas and far western Missouri as the

front could linger slightly longer there. Highs will range from

the upper 60s across the north to the low to middle 70s across

southern Missouri this afternoon as the front moves north

through the area and a warmer air mass moves into the area.



Highs will warm into the middle to upper 70s on Friday. A cap

will be in place across the area on Friday but the cap will

start to weaken from west to east late Friday afternoon/evening

into the overnight hours. It is possible some elevated isolated

storms can develop Friday afternoon across the area there could

be a hail risk with this activity. A dry line will push east

across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma Friday afternoon/evening.

As the cap weakens scattered storms will develop on the dry

line and lift northeast and could push into extreme southeastern

Kansas and western Missouri late Friday afternoon into the

evening hours. MLCAPE will increase along with develop layer

shear ahead of the storms Friday afternoon evening and will

support the storms be supercells in nature. All severe hazards

will be possible with this activity which include, hail up to 2",

70 mph damaging winds, and lower level shear will also support

the risk for tornadoes with this storms too. The supper cell

risk will generally mainly be along and west of I-49 but could

move as far east of Highway 65. As the upper level trough moves

east into the plains a cold front will sweep east and move

across the area Friday night. A line of storms will develop

along front and move across the area. Instability and shear,

including strong low level shear, will support a severe risk

across the entire area with the line of storms Friday night into

Saturday morning. Severe winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of

ping pond bands and embedded spin up tornadoes will occur with

the line of storm. Locally heavy rainfall will also occur with

the storms, the supercells will be scattered in nature and the

line of storms should move quickly to the east.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026



The cold front will push off to the east on Saturday. There

could be some linger showers and maybe a rumble of thunder

Saturday morning before the system moves off to the east. Highs

will be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday and the 60s on the

Sunday with mostly dry conditions after any lingering rainfall

ends Saturday morning.



The front will lift back to the north on Monday there could be a

few showers and storms on the front but coverage will be

limited. Highs will return to the 70s early next week. Another

system will move across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The

ensemble models continue to differ on the exact track and

timing of the system and the placement of the front. Moisture

will increase back to the north and there could be the potential

for strong to severe storms, be the details will be dependent

on the exact track and timing of the system.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 441 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026



Showers and a few storms will continue to move across south

central Missouri early this morning, this activity could clip

KBBG early in the TAF period. Some areas of fog will be possible

this morning after the rain ends, with IFR to LIFR conditions

possible. Light winds will occur this morning.



The warm front will lift north through the area today and this

evening. MVFR ceilings will occur this afternoon and should

improve this evening. Southerly winds will occur south of the

front today and could become gusty at times this evening and

tonight ahead of a system that will impact the region Friday

afternoon and night.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Wise

LONG TERM...Wise

AVIATION...Wise