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FXUS63 KSGF 210730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
230 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024


- Scattered showers and isolated non severe thunderstorms will
be possible today through the week. There will be extended dry
periods each day. Widespread rainfall amounts will remain

- Unseasonably cool through midweek followed by a slow warming
trend into next weekend.


Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

An upper level low remains in place from the Great Lakes region
into the central plains early this morning. Scattered showers
are currently occurring across central Missouri and far
southwestern Missouri. Instability is limited across the area
with the better instability and thunderstorm activity remaining
in Oklahoma southwest of the area. A few isolated non severe
thunderstorms will be possible across far southwestern Missouri
through the early morning hours but overall coverage in
thunderstorms will be limited across the area.

As energy moves around the upper level low, scattered showers
will continue to develop at times this morning into this
afternoon. Weak instability will develop across the area so a
few non severe embedded thunderstorms will occur. The best
potential will generally be west of Highway 65. The rain at any
given time will not be widespread and there will be dry periods
through the day. Rainfall amounts will also generally be light
less than one quarter inch, with locally heavier amounts up to
around one half to three quarters of an inch with thunderstorms.
Drier air in the mid level will advect from north to south into
the area this afternoon and evening and remain in place into
tonight. This will limit the overall shower and isolated storm
potential, but some isolated convection could linger across far
southern Missouri into tonight.

Cooler conditions will remain in place across the area today as
highs only warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows
tonight into Monday morning will cool into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s again.


Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

The upper level low will remain over the region early in the
work week then will start to move off to the east later in the
week as an upper level ridge builds east across the Plains.

Moisture in the mid level will advect back to the north on
Monday and scattered showers and a few non severe storms will
occur at times later Monday morning into early Monday
evening, with the better potential across south central
Missouri. There will be dry periods through the day and not all
locations will be affected.

Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s will occur across the
area again on Monday. A warming trend is then expected Tuesday
into next weekend as the upper level ridge moves east into the
Plains. Highs in the lower to middle 80s will occur on Tuesday
with highs in the middle to upper 80s with some lower 90
readings possible late week into next weekend. The region will
remain in a northwest upper level pattern through mid week and a
few isolated showers and storms will be possible mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday and Wednesday across the
eastern Ozarks closer to the departing upper level low/trough.
Another upper level trough will spread south through the region
and may again bring isolated showers and storms to the area
late week. Not all locations will be affected and there will be
dry periods each day.


Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Light northeasterly to southeasterly winds will occur across
the TAF sites tonight through Sunday. Light scattered showers
will be possible at times through the TAF period especially
Sunday morning and afternoon. There will be dry periods as coverage
will be limited with this activity. There could be a few
isolated rumbles of thunder at times but coverage will be very
limited across the area. Overall VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.