Area Forecast Discussion

Regional Outbreaks of Severe Weather Through Early Next Week; Early Season Heat Wave across the South

Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >

419
FXUS63 KSGF 302253
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
553 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the area this
afternoon and evening (40-60% chance). There is a Marginal (1
of 5) Risk for some of these storms to become severe, along
with a heavy rain risk for areas east of Highway 65.

- Some mild heat and rain relief mid-week following the frontal
passage before heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances
(15-30%) return for the 4th of July weekend and onwards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a shortwave trough with embedded vorts
currently moving through Nebraska/Kansas/Iowa. The 12z KSGF
sounding measured slightly warmer air aloft and a substantial
cap however plenty of moisture remains. A cold front was
located from about Kansas City to Wichita and was moving
southeast. A subtle outflow boundary has pushed into
southcentral Missouri. Vis satellite was showing substantial
breaks in the clouds with temps reaching the lower 80s. RAP
analysis shows about 500-1500j/kg of ML CAPE across the area
with the highest instability east of Springfield.

This Afternoon through Tonight: Expect instability to continue
to increase with heating however dewpoints and temps overall are
not expected to reach as high as yesterday. 0-3km theta-e diffs
are also much lower than yesterday (15-20C) therefore localized
damaging winds to 60mph will be the main concern if storms can
get organized. Highest chances for a severe storm will
generally be east of Highway 65 however we are not expecting
anything close to the magnitude or extent of yesterday. HREF
guidance shows that storm coverage will be highest from 4pm
through about 9pm. PW values around 1.8in and slow storm
motions will also promote a risk for a few instances of flash
flooding, especially given saturated soils and higher than
normal stream flows.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday: Surface high pressure looks to slide
overhead and dewpoints should finally drop back down into the
lower 60s. NBM suggests highs in the lower to middle 80s Tuesday
and the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday. A somewhat comfortable
and dry few days before the heat, humidity and rain chances
return late week.

Thursday through the weekend: Ensembles suggest that some upper
level energy will try to slide in as early as Thursday however
there will be mid level ridging at the same time which should
limit the rain chances to less than 20 percent. Slightly higher
chances (20-40%) return Friday into the weekend as the flow
turns slightly southwesterly and lift increases. An increase in
temps and dews are likely with heat indicies reaching the middle
to upper 90s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the
area early this evening and will continue to move east across
the area through the mid evening hours. The better chances for
this activity will be north and east of the TAF sites but there
is a low chance some could clip the KSGF or KBBG site early this
evening but confidence was too low to include any mention in
the TAFs at this time. There is low chance for some patchy fog
development in spots early Tuesday morning but at this time
confidence is low in widespread fog across the area. VFR
conditions are expected across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise