623

FXUS63 KSGF 120541

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- There is a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms

  capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph after 9 PM

  this evening, generally northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Osage

  Beach line.



- Slow-moving and/or repeated storms will be capable of

  producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding tonight

  through Sunday.



- There is also a Marginal risk for severe weather on Saturday

  and Sunday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary

  hazard, with hail up to the size of quarters being a secondary

  risk.



- Active summertime pattern continues next week with daily

  afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Jul

11 2025



A cumulus field has expanded across eastern and south-central

Missouri this afternoon, with elevated storms across portions of

Iowa associated with a surface front. Aloft, a positively tilted shortwave

trough axis was centered over eastern Nebraska and Kansas.



Although there is a lack of forcing, a lack of inhibition has

also allow for a few showers and storms to develop across

portions of the eastern Ozarks and south- central Missouri this

afternoon. Point soundings indicate some dry air above 650 mb,

so these updrafts may struggle to get overly tall.



Moderate to strong destabilization will allow for storm

intensification across Iowa and northern Missouri throughout the

afternoon, likely building south along the aforementioned cold

front. Possible upscale growth into a more linear system or at

least linear segments will have to be monitored. Forward

propagating vectors would bring convection into our central

Missouri counties around 9-10 pm this evening. While this

activity will be moving into a more stable environment, a

strengthening 35-40 kt low-level jet may aid in storm

organization, at least for a while. CAMs are actually in

somewhat decent agreement regarding the longevity of this

activity, with HRRR and MPAS models suggesting diminishing

intensity after it treks through a tier to two of counties into

our CWA. Of course, models often struggle with overnight

convection, so near-term mesoanalysis will likely be needed to

adequately assess the threat. If storms do indeed organize into

a linear system, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal (1 of 5)

risk for damaging winds northwest of a line roughly from

Pittsburg, KS to Osage Beach. Given the possibility of training

storms, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Our current QPF

ranges from a widespread 0.10 to 0.75 inches across the area,

but the HREF max supports an outside shot of very localized

amounts up to 3-4 inches as a reasonable worst-case scenario.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 237 PM CDT

Fri Jul 11 2025



Saturday-Sunday:

The evolution of tonight`s convection will at least partially

influence Saturday`s thunderstorm outlook, as some leftover

showers and thunderstorms from tonight may be lingering during

the morning hours. The aforementioned cold front will shift into

central Missouri on Saturday as the upper-level shortwave ejects

into the Great Lakes region. Moisture convergence south of the

boundary and diurnal heating will allow for destabilization and

the redevelopment of additional showers and thunderstorms.



Sunday will feature a similar setup and similar hazards to

Saturday but with a developing mid-level trough/vort max across

the southern Plains. Mesoscale convective vortex formation will

be possible from preceding convection, and given the high

forecast PWATs of 1.8-2.0, the potential for heavy rainfall will

be there. Additionally, the deep layer flow will be largely

parallel to the front (which slows to a crawl over southern

Missouri), so training storms will be a concern. It remains to

be seen how long any updraft will be able to remain robust given

the weak shear, but the risk for locally heavy rainfall and

flash flooding will need to be monitored. Additional rainfall

amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible Saturday through

Sunday mainly south of I-44, with lower amounts north of the

interstate. Strong destabilization on both Satruday and Sunday

may support at least some severe potential in the afternoons and

evenings. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the area in

a Marginal risk both days, with the primary hazard being

downburst wind gusts up to 60 mph.



Monday-Thursday:

The remainder of the long-term forecast appears to remain fairly

active as multiple shortwaves transit the area. We have PoPs in

the grids every day next week, with the highest chances in the

afternoons and evenings each day. NBM percentile data support

highs near the climatological average through this period.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025



Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving through the area

bringing frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty

winds. It`s difficult to narrow down exactly when thunderstorms

will occur on Saturday due to the location of where the frontal

boundary ends up. Have intermittent thunderstorms occurring

throughout the day with brief periods of MVFR as well. Most of

this activity will remain sub-severe, but a few of these storms

may contain 60 mph winds and up to quarter sized hail.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Didio

AVIATION...Soria