Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

268

FXUS63 KSGF 102026

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

226 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold front will move south through the area today. Some

  sprinkles/light rain possible across portions of south central

  MO.



- Cooler but still above-average temperatures (highs in the mid

  50s) likely through the weekend.



- Rain chances return late this week starting Friday afternoon

  and continuing through Sunday morning. Higher rainfall amounts

  expected south of I-44.



- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures into mid to

  late-February with next Monday near 70 degrees in some

  places.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026



Synoptic Overview:



A cold front is pushing into south-central and southeast

Missouri this afternoon. Locations across southern Missouri have

had time to warm up considerably again today, allowing

temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s; meanwhile,

locations across central Missouri have remained in the 50s.

Aloft, quasi-zonal/broad ridging is promoting dry weather across

the region.



Mostly Dry through Wednesday:



As the aforementioned cold front pushes into southern Missouri,

it will encounter some better moisture. As it does so, scattered

showers look to develop along the boundary after 6 PM.

Spatially, these precipitation chances are limited to our extreme

southeastern CWA; namely locations southeast of an Eminence to

Gainesville line. Precipitation amounts will be light if showers

do form, generally remaining less than a tenth of an inch.



Temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Wednesday with

highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Otherwise, the Missouri

Ozarks look to remain under the ridge through tomorrow, which

will keep conditions dry. While mixing will only be modest, a

dry airmass will push minimum afternoon relative humidity values

into the 25 to 25% range areawide. Winds will remain fairly

light, however, which will limit fire spread potential should

one start.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 200 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026



Surface high pressure will be in place over the area for

Wednesday into Thursday. Though, it starts to breakdown

throughout the day on Thursday and clouds begin to move in.

Winds will be out of the southeast with partly to mostly cloudy

skies.



A large 500mb trough will move through the southern portion of

the CONUS later this week and bring our next chance for rain.

Rain chances start to increase Friday afternoon and stay

elevated (50-80%) through Sunday morning. There will be several

rounds of rain with breaks in between. There could also be a few

rumbles of thunder, but no widespread thunderstorms are forecast

at this time. Latest guidance has been trending further and

further south and the bulk of the rain is forecast to fall along

and south of I-44 with lesser amounts falling towards central

MO. This trough could continue to push further south, so keep

that in mind as we get closer to the weekend. Deterministic

rainfall totals may change and rainfall amounts may decrease

over the next couple of days. Though, will add in probabilistic

rainfall totals at this time. Probabilistic rainfall amounts

are as follows:



Joplin:

>0.5": 70%

>1": 60%

>2": 35%



Springfield:

>0.5": 70%

>1": 60%

>2": 35%



Branson:

>0.5": 80%

>1": 60%

>2": 35%



Rolla:



>0.5": 60%

>1": 50%

>2": 25%



Highs will be in the 50s each day from Thursday to Sunday with

partly to mostly cloudy skies and lows in the upper 30s to

lower 40s. Clouds will start to clear out by the afternoon on

Sunday. Early next week upper level troughing will setup over

the west coast with long wave upper level ridging over the

central U.S. This will setup the potential for well above normal

temperatures returning early next week. Some areas on Monday

could see highs nearing 70 degrees!



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026



VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be shifting to

the north at the beginning of the forecast period as a cold

front moves through southern Missouri. A few sprinkles or light

showers may develop along the front this evening, though they

look to stay south and east of the terminals, so no mention was

made in the current TAFs.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Didio

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Didio