Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

150

FXUS63 KSGF 011746

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy smoke this afternoon and again late tonight and

  Saturday morning, especially north of the Interstate 44

  corridor.



- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.

  Temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below climatological normals are

  forecast through this period.



- There is a signal for the return of above-average temperatures

  again next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025



Surface pattern changed little since Thursday with high

pressure over the northern Plains into the Great Lakes

continuing to fill filter cooler air into the region. The upper

level pattern remains northwesterly as an upper ridge extends

from the desert southwest up the Rockies along with several

short wave troughs embedded in the flow. Thanks to the

northwest winds...cold air advection will continue today. This,

combined with clouds moving over the region will again keep

temperatures around 80 into this afternoon.



Despite rising heights in the upper levels...temperatures today

will be pleasantly cool with highs around 80 degrees thanks to

850mb temperatures from 14-16 degrees which will occur again

into Saturday.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025



As several shortwaves move over the top of the ridge, this will

act to weaken and break down the northern portions of the ridge

by Sunday...with a bit more stronger wave reaching the Ozarks

late Monday into Tuesday. The cold front that moved through the

region Thursday night will lay up across the Gulf into early

next week. This will limit the return flow of rich moist air and

associated instability ahead of this wave.



The Gulf will open by midweek as waves of energy continue to

round the southwest ridge and move into the central Plains

leading to additional lower end convective chances.



As the moisture makes a return to the Ozarks by the middle to

end of next week, so will the heat with temperatures climbing

back into the lower to middle 90s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025



MVFR conditions will persist around Joplin for much of the

afternoon due to ceilings and reduced visibility from smoke.

Short term models indicate that both ceilings and visibility

will improve after 21Z with VFR prevailing by 22Z.



VFR will persist this afternoon at Springfield and Branson as

ceilings will remain above 3 kft and visibilities above 6 miles.



Short term models then indicate some potential for reduced

visibility late tonight and Saturday morning, especially around

Joplin. Given that probabilities of MVFR occurring are less than

20%, we have opted not to include a mention in the 18Z TAFs.



Otherwise, VFR will occur across southern Missouri from this

evening into Saturday morning.



Surface winds will remain in the 9-12 knot range from the

northeast this afternoon. Mixing will support gusts as high as

20 knots. Winds will diminish this evening with the loss of

daytime heating (and mixing).



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Schaumann