National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
    
                        
584
FXUS63 KSGF 040815
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s to low 90s through the weekend. Record
warmth possible.

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast for the remainder
of this week into early next week. Minimal chances for
rainfall through mid-October.

- Fire Weather: Very dry air and no significant rain expected
through mid-October will continue to dry fuels. Added Fire
Weather section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

With dry and warm weather is place, concerns are focused on fire
weather (see fire weather section below). Record warmth is
possible again today and Saturday, especially at KJLN (see
climate section below for records), with highs ranging from the
mid 80s east to the low 90s west of Highway 65. Low humidity
will prevent heat from being a major health concern concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A final day of abnormal heat is expected Sunday before a cold
front pulls in a cooler, but still above normal, conditions for
the rest of the long term period. Record heat looks less likely
for Sunday, but see climate section below for specific records.

Concerns through the long term are related to increasing drought
and watching for fire weather conditions. See the Fire Weather
section below for more specifics to that threat.

The forecast will remain dry through the middle to end of next
week. Longer term ensemble data and CPC outlooks point to drier
than normal conditions and minimal rainfall potential through
October 18th, then increasing potential for rainfall toward the
end of the month. Highs look to generally remain a little above
normal with values in the mid 70s to mid 80s through the middle
of October, then cooling some into the 70s later in the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Looking at model probabilities of combined winds >20 mph AND RH
< 30% shows less than a 5% chance over the next 1-2 weeks, so
not seeing any alarm bells for a critical fire weather (red
flag) risk at this time, but some elevated fire weather
potential exists. Given dry and drying fuels, will be watching
potential for red flag conditions closely.

Through this weekend:

Abnormally hot conditions with record highs possible each day.

Today...Light winds with Min RH of 35-45%

Saturday...Elevated fire weather west of Highway 65. S-SW winds
10-15 mph gusting to 15-25 mph (strongest west of Highway 65).
Min RH 30-40% west of Highway 65, 35-50% east of Highway 65.

Sunday...Elevated fire weather across much of the area. N-NW
winds 10-15 mph gusting to 15-20 mph. Min RH 20-30% (perhaps
lower) across much of the area and 30-40% across south-central
Missouri.

Next week (October 7-12):

No rain forecast. Temperatures will be cooler but still above
normal with highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Daily dry Min RH values
of 20-30% west of Highway 65 and 30-40% east of Highway 65. No
notable wind events, but will be watching closely.

1-2 weeks (October 13-19):

Confidence in specifics decreases with time, but almost all
ensemble model data shows little to no rain through the middle
of October. RH values are more difficult to assess, but a
majority of ensemble members show a dry airmass remaining in
place and >50% probabilities for daily RH values dropping below
30%. Hard to give many details related to winds, but right now
fewer than 10% of ensemble model members show winds >=25 mph any
of the days in this period. Still, we will be watching closely
given continued drying of fuels.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Record High Temperatures:

October 4:
KSGF: 91/1938
KJLN: 91/1963
KUNO: 90/1954

October 5:
KSGF: 93/1981
KJLN: 91/1963
KVIH: 91/1897
KUNO: 91/1981

October 6:
KSGF: 89/1938
KJLN: 90/1963
KUNO: 87/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
FIRE WEATHER...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus