Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

158

FXUS63 KSGF 220712

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

112 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High temperatures increase into the 30s Wednesday through

  Friday, with above normal temperatures in the mid 40s to

  around 55 expected Saturday.



- There is a 20% chance of precipitation this weekend.

  Confidence in precip type, amounts or impacts is low.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025



An upper level trough was located across the plains with an

attendant surface low over the Great Lakes and a surface

trough/cold front trailing south into norther Texas. In advance

of the front, surface winds were southerly which was allowing

for warm air and limited moisture advection to occur.



The system over the Great Lakes will move east through the day

today with the trailing cold front forecast to move through the

region later this evening and overnight into Thursday morning.

Thanks to the southerly surface flow, temperatures will begin a

warming trend today with highs in the middle to upper 30s this

afternoon. The other thing that will occur is increasing winds

today with winds gusting at times between 20 and 30mph.



While confidence is low, some flurries may occur across portions

of central Missouri as the front moves through. Lows tonight

are forecast to be in the 20s, with temperatures on Thursday in

the middle 20s in central Missouri to the middle 30s across far

southern Missouri.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025



Once the cold front moves through, temperatures will be a bit

cooler Thursday with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s. An

expansive area of surface high pressure will move into the

center of the country Thursday night with lows ranging from the

upper single digits to the mid teens. An upper level shortwave

ridge in the general northwesterly flow aloft and surface

southwesterly flow will bring warmer temps with highs in the

mid 30s to mid 40s on Friday.



There have been little if any changes in the forecast for the

weekend. Models continue to indicate the potential for light

precipitation south of the Ozarks Saturday night into Sunday

night, but vary on the northern extent and timing. There remains

significant uncertainty in precipitation types as well. Probabilities

favor all or mostly rain chances at this point based on current

output, though some brief snow may occur. However, the

probability of precipitation has remained less than 20 percent

with the best chances along the Arkansas Sate line. Highs are

forecast to be in the 40s to around 50 Saturday, then around 40

on Sunday.



Northwesterly flow aloft and several rounds of high pressure

into early next work week look to keep the region dry with near

average temperatures (highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1038 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025



High clouds moving in from the west as a surface trough

extending from Manitoba into the southern High Plains pushes

east. Winds from the south turn westerly Wednesday afternoon as

an atypical warm front moves east with the trough, passing

through the area Wednesday evening. Winds gust 20-30kts ahead of

the warm front, especially late morning and early afternoon,

with sustained winds 10-15kts most of the TAF period. Low-

level wind shear increases during the overnight hours to

40-50kts, decreasing through the morning.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Hatch

LONG TERM...Hatch

AVIATION...Camden