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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0718 MDT Monday October 13 2025
This forecast is for Monday, October 13, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 66.4 F/19.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 120 ft/min (0.6 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 9250 ft MSL (2917 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 64.0 F/18.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8003 ft MSL (1670 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 10/14...... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:08:46 / 18:31:25 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 22 min 38 sec (682 min 38 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:06 MDT... 46.88 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/13/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13788 ft MSL (7455 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11189 ft MSL (4856 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10376 ft MSL (4043 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.8
K index......................... +23.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.8 -91.8 230 56 29 4.6 2.5 73.5 164.4 32.9 M M
45000 -60.8 -77.4 235 73 38 6.5 3.6 62.5 144.5 28.3 M M
40000 -50.8 -59.4 235 83 43 8.0 4.4 55.9 132.5 25.8 M M
38000 -46.1 -51.0 235 82 42 7.9 4.4 54.0 129.1 25.1 M M
36000 -41.3 -42.3 235 82 42 7.9 4.3 52.7 126.8 24.9 M M
34000 -37.1 -34.8 235 79 41 6.6 3.6 50.2 122.4 23.7 M M
32000 -32.7 -26.9 235 75 39 6.6 3.6 47.5 117.6 22.3 M M
30000 -29.1 -20.4 235 69 35 5.8 3.2 44.5 112.1 20.5 M M
29000 -27.4 -17.3 235 65 33 5.8 3.2 43.0 109.4 19.6 M M
28000 -25.6 -14.1 235 61 31 5.8 3.2 41.6 107.0 18.8 M M
27000 -23.9 -11.0 235 56 29 6.0 3.3 40.1 104.2 17.8 M M
26000 -22.1 -7.8 235 50 26 6.1 3.3 38.7 101.7 16.8 M M
25000 -20.3 -4.5 230 44 23 6.2 3.4 37.5 99.4 15.9 M M
24000 -18.4 -1.1 230 40 21 6.5 3.6 36.2 97.2 15.0 M M
23000 -16.5 2.3 230 38 19 6.5 3.6 35.0 95.0 14.2 M M
22000 -14.6 5.7 230 35 18 6.5 3.6 33.9 93.0 13.4 M M
21000 -12.6 9.3 225 34 17 6.8 3.7 32.8 91.0 12.6 M M
20000 -10.6 12.9 220 33 17 6.8 3.7 31.8 89.2 11.7 M M
19500 -9.6 14.7 220 33 17 6.8 3.7 31.3 88.3 11.4 M M
19000 -8.6 16.5 220 33 17 6.6 3.6 30.8 87.5 11.0 M M
18500 -7.4 18.7 220 31 16 5.5 3.0 29.8 85.6 10.2 M M
18000 -6.5 20.3 220 30 16 5.4 3.0 29.1 84.3 9.6 M M
17500 -5.8 21.6 220 29 15 4.9 2.7 28.3 82.9 8.9 M M
17000 -5.1 22.8 220 27 14 4.9 2.7 27.5 81.5 8.2 M M
16500 -4.4 24.1 220 26 13 5.5 3.0 26.7 80.1 7.5 M M
16000 -3.6 25.5 220 24 12 5.6 3.1 26.0 78.8 6.9 M M
15500 -2.8 27.0 215 23 12 5.7 3.1 25.4 77.6 6.3 M M
15000 -2.0 28.4 215 21 11 5.7 3.1 24.7 76.4 5.6 M M
14500 -1.2 29.8 210 20 10 5.8 3.2 24.0 75.2 5.0 M M
14000 -0.3 31.5 205 19 10 6.7 3.7 23.5 74.2 4.4 M M
13500 0.6 33.1 200 18 9 6.6 3.6 23.0 73.3 3.9 M M
13000 1.6 34.9 195 17 9 7.3 4.0 22.5 72.5 3.4 M M
12500 2.6 36.7 185 16 8 7.3 4.0 22.1 71.8 3.0 M M
12000 3.6 38.5 180 16 8 7.5 4.1 21.7 71.1 2.6 M M
11500 4.7 40.5 175 15 8 7.3 4.0 21.4 70.5 2.2 M M
11000 5.7 42.3 175 15 8 7.1 3.9 20.9 69.7 1.8 M M
10500 6.8 44.2 170 14 7 7.6 4.2 20.6 69.0 1.4 M M
10250 7.3 45.1 170 14 7 6.8 3.7 20.4 68.7 1.2 M M
10000 7.7 45.9 165 14 7 6.1 3.3 20.1 68.2 0.9 M M
9750 8.2 46.8 165 14 7 6.3 3.5 19.8 67.7 0.6 M M
9500 8.6 47.5 165 13 7 6.5 3.6 19.6 67.2 0.3 M M
9250 9.0 48.2 165 13 7 5.6 3.0 19.3 66.8 0.1 M M
9000 9.3 48.7 165 13 7 2.9 1.6 18.9 66.0 -0.4 206 1.0
8750 9.4 48.9 165 12 6 1.8 1.0 18.3 64.9 -1.0 196 1.0
8500 9.5 49.1 160 12 6 1.9 1.1 17.7 63.9 -1.6 185 0.9
8250 9.6 49.3 155 12 6 1.9 1.0 17.1 62.8 -2.3 174 0.9
8000 9.8 49.6 150 11 6 2.0 1.1 16.5 61.7 -2.9 164 0.8
7750 9.9 49.8 145 11 6 2.1 1.1 15.9 60.7 -3.5 152 0.8
7500 10.1 50.2 140 11 6 2.5 1.4 15.4 59.6 -4.0 139 0.7
7250 10.3 50.5 135 11 6 4.4 2.4 14.9 58.8 -4.5 124 0.6
7000 10.7 51.3 130 10 5 5.3 2.9 14.5 58.1 -4.9 106 0.5
6750 11.1 52.0 125 10 5 5.6 3.1 14.2 57.5 -5.2 87 0.4
6500 11.5 52.7 120 9 5 5.6 3.1 13.9 57.0 -5.6 67 0.3
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/13/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... -0.3
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +23.1 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +18.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.8 -93.6 230 60 31 4.6 2.5 | -69.3 -92.7 225 59 30 4.2 2.3
45000 -61.5 -78.7 235 71 37 7.1 3.9 | -61.5 -78.7 230 70 36 7.5 4.1
40000 -50.7 -59.3 235 75 39 8.0 4.4 | -50.2 -58.4 230 75 39 7.5 4.1
38000 -45.9 -50.6 235 77 39 8.0 4.4 | -45.7 -50.3 230 74 38 7.5 4.1
36000 -41.1 -42.0 235 78 40 8.0 4.4 | -41.2 -42.2 230 72 37 7.5 4.1
34000 -36.3 -33.3 235 77 40 7.0 3.8 | -36.0 -32.8 230 72 37 7.8 4.3
32000 -32.1 -25.8 235 75 38 7.0 3.8 | -31.3 -24.3 230 72 37 7.9 4.3
30000 -28.3 -18.9 235 68 35 6.2 3.4 | -27.6 -17.7 230 70 36 5.7 3.1
29000 -26.4 -15.5 230 63 33 6.2 3.4 | -25.9 -14.6 230 68 35 5.7 3.1
28000 -24.5 -12.1 230 59 30 6.2 3.4 | -24.2 -11.6 225 67 34 5.7 3.1
27000 -22.8 -9.0 230 54 28 5.9 3.2 | -22.5 -8.5 225 62 32 5.6 3.1
26000 -21.0 -5.8 230 49 25 5.9 3.2 | -20.8 -5.4 225 57 30 5.6 3.1
25000 -19.3 -2.7 225 44 23 6.0 3.3 | -19.2 -2.6 225 53 27 5.7 3.1
24000 -17.5 0.5 225 40 21 5.9 3.2 | -17.5 0.5 225 49 25 5.8 3.2
23000 -15.8 3.6 230 37 19 5.9 3.2 | -15.7 3.7 225 46 24 5.8 3.2
22000 -14.0 6.8 230 35 18 5.9 3.2 | -14.0 6.8 225 44 22 5.7 3.1
21000 -12.1 10.2 230 34 17 6.8 3.8 | -12.1 10.2 225 41 21 6.8 3.7
20000 -10.1 13.8 225 33 17 6.9 3.8 | -10.1 13.8 225 38 19 6.8 3.7
19500 -9.1 15.6 225 33 17 6.9 3.8 | -8.6 16.5 225 36 18 6.8 3.8
19000 -7.6 18.3 225 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -7.6 18.3 225 34 18 6.6 3.6
18500 -6.6 20.1 220 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -6.6 20.1 220 34 17 6.6 3.6
18000 -5.7 21.7 220 32 17 6.4 3.5 | -5.7 21.7 220 33 17 6.4 3.5
17500 -4.8 23.4 215 32 17 5.6 3.1 | -4.8 23.4 220 32 16 5.9 3.2
17000 -4.1 24.6 215 32 16 5.8 3.2 | -4.0 24.8 215 31 16 6.0 3.3
16500 -3.3 26.1 215 31 16 5.0 2.7 | -3.2 26.2 215 30 16 5.1 2.8
16000 -2.7 27.1 215 30 16 5.0 2.8 | -2.5 27.5 215 29 15 5.2 2.9
15500 -2.0 28.4 215 30 15 5.1 2.8 | -1.8 28.8 215 29 15 5.3 2.9
15000 -1.3 29.7 210 29 15 5.2 2.9 | -1.1 30.0 215 28 14 5.4 3.0
14500 -0.6 30.9 210 28 15 5.3 2.9 | -0.4 31.3 215 27 14 5.7 3.1
14000 0.2 32.4 210 28 14 5.6 3.1 | 0.4 32.7 215 27 14 6.6 3.6
13500 0.9 33.6 205 27 14 5.5 3.0 | 1.3 34.3 215 27 14 6.6 3.6
13000 1.8 35.2 200 26 14 6.6 3.6 | 2.3 36.1 215 27 14 7.0 3.8
12500 2.7 36.9 200 26 13 6.5 3.6 | 3.2 37.8 215 26 14 7.2 4.0
12000 3.6 38.5 195 25 13 6.4 3.5 | 4.1 39.4 215 26 13 4.8 2.7
11500 4.5 40.1 190 25 13 6.4 3.5 | 4.7 40.5 210 25 13 4.8 2.6
11000 5.3 41.5 190 24 12 5.3 2.9 | 5.3 41.5 210 24 12 3.8 2.1
10500 6.0 42.8 185 23 12 6.2 3.4 | 5.9 42.6 205 22 12 3.9 2.1
10250 6.4 43.5 185 23 12 3.2 1.7 | 6.2 43.2 205 22 11 5.3 2.9
10000 6.5 43.7 180 22 11 1.3 0.7 | 6.6 43.9 200 21 11 5.0 2.8
9750 6.7 44.1 180 21 11 3.0 1.6 | 6.8 44.2 195 20 10 3.2 1.7
9500 6.9 44.4 175 20 10 2.6 1.4 | 7.1 44.8 190 19 10 4.4 2.4
9250 7.1 44.8 175 19 10 2.5 1.4 | 7.4 45.3 185 18 9 1.3 0.7
9000 7.3 45.1 170 19 10 2.4 1.3 | 7.4 45.3 180 16 8 0.2 0.1
8750 7.4 45.3 170 18 9 2.6 1.4 | 7.7 45.9 170 15 8 2.7 1.5
8500 7.6 45.7 165 17 9 2.6 1.4 | 8.0 46.4 165 14 7 2.7 1.5
8250 7.9 46.2 165 17 9 4.0 2.2 | 8.3 46.9 155 14 7 6.6 3.6
8000 8.3 46.9 160 17 9 4.9 2.7 | 9.0 48.2 150 14 7 9.0 4.9
7750 8.7 47.7 150 17 9 3.6 2.0 | 9.7 49.5 150 13 7 8.0 4.4
7500 9.0 48.2 145 17 9 4.1 2.2 | 10.3 50.5 145 13 7 8.7 4.8
7250 9.5 49.1 140 16 8 6.0 3.3 | 11.0 51.8 145 13 7 9.8 5.4
7000 10.0 50.0 135 16 8 6.5 3.6 | 11.8 53.2 140 13 7 10.1 5.6
6750 10.6 51.1 130 15 8 6.9 3.8 | 12.5 54.5 140 13 6 9.6 5.3
6500 11.2 52.2 125 15 7 9.8 5.4 | 13.3 55.9 140 12 6 11.2 6.1
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/13/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +58.8 LI... -1.0 | CAPE... +42.2 LI... -1.0
CINH... -0.9 K Index... +19.3 | CINH... -15.4 K Index... +25.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.8 -93.6 220 61 31 4.6 2.5 | -69.8 -93.6 220 60 31 4.8 2.6
45000 -61.6 -78.9 225 73 38 7.4 4.1 | -61.5 -78.7 225 72 37 7.3 4.0
40000 -50.4 -58.7 225 81 42 7.4 4.1 | -50.4 -58.7 225 79 41 7.5 4.1
38000 -46.0 -50.8 225 77 40 7.4 4.1 | -46.0 -50.8 225 77 40 7.5 4.1
36000 -41.5 -42.7 225 74 38 7.4 4.1 | -40.9 -41.6 225 74 38 7.5 4.1
34000 -36.1 -33.0 225 71 37 8.3 4.5 | -36.0 -32.8 230 73 37 8.2 4.5
32000 -31.1 -24.0 230 69 36 8.3 4.6 | -31.1 -24.0 230 71 37 8.3 4.5
30000 -27.2 -17.0 230 66 34 6.0 3.3 | -27.4 -17.3 230 68 35 5.6 3.1
29000 -25.5 -13.9 230 65 34 6.0 3.3 | -25.7 -14.3 230 66 34 5.6 3.1
28000 -23.7 -10.7 230 64 33 5.9 3.2 | -24.1 -11.4 230 64 33 5.8 3.2
27000 -22.1 -7.8 225 61 31 5.4 3.0 | -22.2 -8.0 230 61 31 6.3 3.5
26000 -20.5 -4.9 225 57 29 5.5 3.0 | -20.4 -4.7 225 57 29 6.4 3.5
25000 -18.9 -2.0 225 54 28 5.6 3.1 | -18.5 -1.3 225 54 28 6.5 3.6
24000 -17.2 1.0 220 52 27 5.9 3.2 | -16.7 1.9 225 52 27 5.9 3.2
23000 -15.4 4.3 225 50 26 5.9 3.2 | -15.0 5.0 225 52 27 5.9 3.2
22000 -13.6 7.5 225 48 25 5.9 3.2 | -13.2 8.2 220 51 26 5.9 3.2
21000 -11.9 10.6 225 45 23 5.8 3.2 | -11.5 11.3 220 48 25 5.9 3.2
20000 -10.1 13.8 225 43 22 5.8 3.2 | -9.9 14.2 225 44 23 5.9 3.2
19500 -9.3 15.3 220 41 21 5.9 3.2 | -8.6 16.5 225 41 21 6.1 3.3
19000 -8.4 16.9 220 40 21 6.2 3.4 | -7.8 18.0 225 39 20 5.1 2.8
18500 -6.9 19.6 220 38 19 6.8 3.7 | -7.1 19.2 225 37 19 5.1 2.8
18000 -5.9 21.4 220 36 19 6.7 3.7 | -6.3 20.7 230 34 18 5.3 2.9
17500 -5.0 23.0 225 35 18 6.4 3.5 | -5.5 22.1 230 32 17 5.6 3.1
17000 -4.1 24.6 225 34 17 6.5 3.6 | -4.7 23.5 230 30 16 5.4 3.0
16500 -3.2 26.2 225 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -3.8 25.2 230 29 15 7.2 4.0
16000 -2.4 27.7 225 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -2.7 27.1 230 27 14 7.2 3.9
15500 -1.5 29.3 225 32 17 6.0 3.3 | -1.7 28.9 225 26 14 5.8 3.2
15000 -0.7 30.7 225 32 16 6.1 3.3 | -1.1 30.0 220 26 13 4.9 2.7
14500 0.1 32.2 225 31 16 6.1 3.4 | -0.4 31.3 215 25 13 5.4 3.0
14000 1.0 33.8 225 30 16 6.2 3.4 | 0.5 32.9 210 24 13 7.4 4.0
13500 1.8 35.2 220 29 15 6.3 3.4 | 1.5 34.7 205 24 12 7.3 4.0
13000 2.5 36.5 215 28 14 4.3 2.4 | 2.4 36.3 205 23 12 5.7 3.1
12500 3.0 37.4 215 26 14 4.4 2.4 | 3.2 37.8 200 22 12 5.7 3.2
12000 3.8 38.8 210 25 13 7.1 3.9 | 4.0 39.2 200 22 11 6.4 3.5
11500 4.7 40.5 205 23 12 7.0 3.9 | 4.9 40.8 195 21 11 6.3 3.5
11000 5.5 41.9 195 21 11 4.8 2.6 | 5.8 42.4 190 20 10 6.2 3.4
10500 6.2 43.2 190 19 10 4.5 2.5 | 6.7 44.1 180 18 9 5.8 3.2
10250 6.6 43.9 185 18 9 6.4 3.5 | 7.1 44.8 180 18 9 7.7 4.2
10000 7.2 45.0 180 18 9 8.4 4.6 | 7.8 46.0 175 18 9 9.1 5.0
9750 7.8 46.0 180 17 9 8.1 4.5 | 8.5 47.3 175 18 9 8.5 4.6
9500 8.4 47.1 175 17 9 7.7 4.2 | 9.1 48.4 170 18 9 8.1 4.5
9250 9.0 48.2 170 16 8 9.8 5.4 | 9.7 49.5 170 18 9 10.1 5.5
9000 9.8 49.6 170 16 8 10.1 5.5 | 10.6 51.1 165 18 9 10.2 5.6
8750 10.4 50.7 170 16 8 8.2 4.5 | 11.2 52.2 165 18 9 8.1 4.5
8500 11.1 52.0 165 16 8 8.7 4.8 | 11.8 53.2 165 18 9 8.6 4.7
8250 11.7 53.1 165 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 12.5 54.5 160 18 9 8.9 4.9
8000 12.5 54.5 165 15 8 9.9 5.4 | 13.2 55.8 160 18 9 9.1 5.0
7750 13.2 55.8 160 15 8 9.7 5.3 | 13.8 56.8 155 18 9 9.0 4.9
7500 13.9 57.0 160 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 14.5 58.1 155 18 9 8.7 4.8
7250 14.6 58.3 160 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 15.1 59.2 150 17 9 8.1 4.4
7000 15.4 59.7 160 14 7 10.1 5.5 | 15.7 60.3 150 17 8 7.7 4.2
6750 16.1 61.0 155 14 7 9.3 5.1 | 16.3 61.3 145 16 8 8.7 4.8
6500 16.9 62.4 155 13 7 12.3 6.8 | 16.9 62.4 145 14 7 7.4 4.1
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0719 MDT Monday October 13 2025
This forecast is for Monday, October 13, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 69.4 F/20.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 380 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 9542 ft MSL (3864 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 69.0 F/21.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8026 ft MSL (2349 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 10/14...... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:11:19 / 18:33:51 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 22 min 33 sec (682 min 33 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:52:35 MDT... 46.85 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/13/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14115 ft MSL (8437 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11157 ft MSL (5479 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10386 ft MSL (4709 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.2
K index......................... +26.7
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.7 -91.7 230 62 32 4.1 2.3 76.0 168.9 32.5 M M
45000 -61.6 -78.9 235 79 41 6.6 3.6 64.6 148.3 27.6 M M
40000 -51.0 -59.8 235 88 45 8.1 4.4 57.5 135.5 24.9 M M
38000 -46.2 -51.2 235 88 45 8.1 4.4 55.7 132.3 24.3 M M
36000 -41.3 -42.3 230 88 45 8.0 4.4 54.6 130.3 24.1 M M
34000 -37.6 -35.7 230 82 42 5.6 3.1 51.5 124.7 22.5 M M
32000 -34.2 -29.6 230 73 38 5.6 3.1 48.3 118.9 20.6 M M
30000 -30.6 -23.1 230 65 33 6.3 3.5 45.3 113.5 18.9 M M
29000 -28.7 -19.7 230 61 31 6.3 3.5 43.9 111.1 18.0 M M
28000 -26.8 -16.2 230 57 29 6.3 3.5 42.7 108.9 17.3 M M
27000 -24.9 -12.8 230 52 27 6.3 3.5 41.4 106.5 16.4 M M
26000 -22.6 -8.7 230 47 24 6.4 3.5 39.7 103.5 15.3 M M
25000 -20.7 -5.3 230 42 22 6.5 3.5 38.6 101.4 14.5 M M
24000 -18.7 -1.7 230 39 20 7.1 3.9 37.5 99.5 13.7 M M
23000 -16.6 2.1 230 37 19 7.1 3.9 36.5 97.7 13.0 M M
22000 -14.5 5.9 225 35 18 7.2 3.9 35.6 96.1 12.4 M M
21000 -12.5 9.5 225 34 18 6.4 3.5 34.5 94.0 11.5 M M
20000 -10.6 12.9 220 34 17 6.4 3.5 33.3 91.9 10.6 M M
19500 -9.7 14.5 220 34 17 6.5 3.5 32.7 90.9 10.2 M M
19000 -8.7 16.3 215 33 17 6.3 3.5 32.2 90.0 9.8 M M
18500 -7.8 18.0 215 33 17 6.3 3.4 31.6 88.9 9.2 M M
18000 -6.9 19.6 215 32 16 6.4 3.5 31.0 87.8 8.7 M M
17500 -6.1 21.0 215 31 16 5.3 2.9 30.3 86.6 8.1 M M
17000 -5.3 22.5 215 29 15 5.4 3.0 29.6 85.3 7.5 M M
16500 -4.6 23.7 215 28 14 5.7 3.1 28.9 84.0 6.8 M M
16000 -3.7 25.3 210 26 14 5.9 3.2 28.2 82.8 6.2 M M
15500 -2.9 26.8 210 25 13 6.0 3.3 27.6 81.6 5.6 M M
15000 -1.9 28.6 210 23 12 7.0 3.8 27.1 80.7 5.2 M M
14500 -0.9 30.4 210 22 11 6.9 3.8 26.6 79.9 4.8 M M
14000 0.1 32.2 205 21 11 7.2 4.0 26.2 79.1 4.3 M M
13500 1.2 34.2 200 19 10 7.2 4.0 25.7 78.3 3.9 M M
13000 2.2 36.0 200 18 9 7.2 4.0 25.3 77.6 3.5 M M
12500 3.2 37.8 195 17 9 7.2 4.0 24.9 76.8 3.1 M M
12000 4.3 39.7 185 16 8 7.1 3.9 24.5 76.1 2.7 M M
11500 5.3 41.5 180 15 8 7.1 3.9 24.1 75.3 2.3 M M
11000 6.3 43.3 175 15 8 6.9 3.8 23.7 74.6 1.8 M M
10500 7.2 45.0 175 14 7 7.0 3.9 23.2 73.7 1.3 M M
10250 7.7 45.9 170 14 7 7.4 4.1 23.0 73.4 1.1 M M
10000 8.2 46.8 170 13 7 6.0 3.3 22.8 73.0 0.9 M M
9750 8.6 47.5 170 14 7 4.9 2.7 22.4 72.3 0.5 M M
9500 8.9 48.0 175 14 7 5.3 2.9 22.0 71.7 0.1 M M
9250 9.8 49.6 175 14 7 4.6 2.5 21.5 70.7 -0.5 246 1.2
9000 9.9 49.8 175 15 7 2.1 1.2 20.9 69.7 -1.1 234 1.2
8750 10.0 50.0 175 15 8 2.5 1.4 20.4 68.7 -1.7 222 1.1
8500 10.2 50.4 175 16 8 3.7 2.0 19.8 67.7 -2.3 211 1.1
8250 10.4 50.7 175 16 8 3.8 2.1 19.4 67.0 -2.7 195 1.0
8000 10.6 51.1 175 15 8 2.9 1.6 18.9 66.0 -3.3 183 0.9
7750 10.8 51.4 175 15 8 2.0 1.1 18.4 65.1 -3.9 170 0.9
7500 11.0 51.8 175 15 8 6.6 3.6 17.9 64.1 -4.4 158 0.8
7250 11.7 53.1 175 15 8 8.7 4.7 17.8 64.1 -4.4 129 0.7
7000 12.1 53.8 170 14 7 5.3 2.9 17.5 63.6 -4.7 108 0.5
6750 12.6 54.7 170 14 7 6.5 3.5 17.3 63.1 -5.0 88 0.4
6500 13.1 55.6 170 13 7 8.2 4.5 17.1 62.7 -5.3 65 0.3
6250 13.7 56.7 170 12 6 7.8 4.3 17.0 62.6 -5.4 38 0.2
6000 14.1 57.4 170 11 5 3.6 2.0 16.7 62.0 -5.7 18 0.1
5750 14.6 58.3 165 9 5 12.0 6.6 16.4 61.5 -6.0 M M
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/13/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +59.7 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +98.6 LI... -1.2
CINH... -18.4 K Index... +28.1 | CINH... -1.6 K Index... +21.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.6 -91.5 230 57 29 4.7 2.6 | -69.1 -92.4 225 58 30 4.3 2.4
45000 -60.7 -77.3 235 74 38 6.5 3.6 | -61.4 -78.5 230 76 39 7.2 4.0
40000 -50.8 -59.4 235 81 42 7.9 4.3 | -50.5 -58.9 230 81 42 7.5 4.1
38000 -46.1 -51.0 235 83 43 7.9 4.3 | -46.0 -50.8 230 80 41 7.5 4.1
36000 -40.8 -41.4 235 85 44 8.0 4.4 | -40.9 -41.6 230 80 41 7.6 4.2
34000 -36.5 -33.7 235 82 42 6.9 3.8 | -36.6 -33.9 230 78 40 7.2 4.0
32000 -32.4 -26.3 230 80 41 6.9 3.8 | -32.2 -26.0 230 76 39 7.2 3.9
30000 -28.7 -19.7 230 71 37 5.8 3.2 | -28.4 -19.1 230 71 36 6.1 3.4
29000 -27.0 -16.6 230 66 34 5.8 3.2 | -26.6 -15.9 225 68 35 6.1 3.4
28000 -25.3 -13.5 230 61 32 5.8 3.2 | -24.7 -12.5 225 65 33 6.1 3.4
27000 -23.6 -10.5 230 56 29 5.8 3.2 | -22.9 -9.2 225 61 32 6.0 3.3
26000 -21.9 -7.4 230 52 27 5.8 3.2 | -21.1 -6.0 225 58 30 6.0 3.3
25000 -20.1 -4.2 230 47 24 5.8 3.2 | -19.4 -2.9 225 55 28 6.0 3.3
24000 -18.4 -1.1 230 43 22 5.8 3.2 | -17.6 0.3 225 51 26 5.5 3.0
23000 -16.7 1.9 230 41 21 5.8 3.2 | -15.6 3.9 225 48 24 5.5 3.0
22000 -14.6 5.7 225 38 19 5.7 3.1 | -13.9 7.0 225 44 23 5.5 3.0
21000 -12.5 9.5 225 36 18 7.3 4.0 | -12.1 10.2 225 41 21 6.2 3.4
20000 -10.4 13.3 220 35 18 7.3 4.0 | -10.3 13.5 220 38 20 6.3 3.4
19500 -9.3 15.3 220 34 17 7.4 4.0 | -9.3 15.3 220 36 19 6.3 3.4
19000 -8.3 17.1 220 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -8.4 16.9 220 35 18 6.4 3.5
18500 -7.4 18.7 215 33 17 6.4 3.5 | -7.5 18.5 220 34 18 6.5 3.6
18000 -6.5 20.3 215 33 17 6.4 3.5 | -6.5 20.3 220 33 17 6.6 3.6
17500 -5.7 21.7 210 33 17 5.3 2.9 | -5.6 21.9 220 33 17 6.2 3.4
17000 -4.9 23.2 210 32 17 5.4 3.0 | -4.7 23.5 220 33 17 6.3 3.5
16500 -4.2 24.4 210 32 16 5.1 2.8 | -3.9 25.0 215 32 17 5.9 3.3
16000 -3.6 25.5 205 31 16 5.1 2.8 | -3.0 26.6 215 32 16 5.9 3.2
15500 -2.9 26.8 205 30 15 5.6 3.0 | -2.2 28.0 215 31 16 5.9 3.2
15000 -2.0 28.4 205 28 15 6.7 3.7 | -1.4 29.5 215 31 16 5.9 3.2
14500 -1.1 30.0 205 27 14 6.7 3.7 | -0.6 30.9 215 31 16 6.0 3.3
14000 -0.2 31.6 205 26 13 7.0 3.8 | 0.1 32.2 215 31 16 5.9 3.2
13500 0.8 33.4 205 24 13 7.0 3.8 | 0.9 33.6 215 30 15 5.9 3.3
13000 1.8 35.2 205 23 12 6.9 3.8 | 1.7 35.1 210 29 15 6.2 3.4
12500 2.8 37.0 205 22 11 7.0 3.8 | 2.6 36.7 210 29 15 6.3 3.4
12000 3.7 38.7 205 21 11 5.8 3.2 | 3.4 38.1 210 28 14 6.6 3.6
11500 4.5 40.1 205 20 10 5.6 3.1 | 4.4 39.9 205 26 14 6.7 3.7
11000 5.3 41.5 200 19 10 5.1 2.8 | 5.2 41.4 205 25 13 5.9 3.2
10500 5.9 42.6 200 20 10 5.3 2.9 | 6.0 42.8 195 24 12 5.7 3.1
10250 6.3 43.3 195 19 10 5.6 3.1 | 6.4 43.5 195 23 12 5.6 3.1
10000 6.7 44.1 195 19 10 4.9 2.7 | 6.8 44.2 190 23 12 5.6 3.1
9750 7.0 44.6 190 19 10 4.7 2.6 | 7.2 45.0 190 22 11 5.6 3.1
9500 7.3 45.1 190 19 10 4.4 2.4 | 7.6 45.7 185 21 11 5.5 3.0
9250 7.6 45.7 185 19 10 3.5 1.9 | 8.3 46.9 180 19 10 5.0 2.8
9000 7.9 46.2 185 18 10 5.2 2.9 | 8.7 47.7 175 18 9 5.6 3.1
8750 8.8 47.8 180 17 9 6.3 3.5 | 9.1 48.4 175 17 9 4.5 2.5
8500 9.3 48.7 175 17 9 6.9 3.8 | 9.5 49.1 170 16 8 8.3 4.5
8250 9.8 49.6 175 17 9 6.5 3.6 | 10.3 50.5 170 16 8 9.4 5.2
8000 10.2 50.4 170 16 8 5.9 3.2 | 10.8 51.4 170 15 8 6.5 3.6
7750 10.6 51.1 165 15 8 6.0 3.3 | 11.3 52.3 165 14 7 7.3 4.0
7500 11.1 52.0 160 14 7 6.9 3.8 | 11.9 53.4 160 14 7 9.2 5.1
7250 11.7 53.1 160 14 7 7.9 4.3 | 12.7 54.9 160 14 7 9.9 5.5
7000 12.2 54.0 155 13 6 7.7 4.2 | 13.4 56.1 160 13 7 8.8 4.8
6750 12.8 55.0 150 12 6 7.8 4.3 | 14.0 57.2 155 13 7 9.3 5.1
6500 13.4 56.1 145 11 6 8.0 4.4 | 14.8 58.6 155 12 6 9.8 5.4
6250 13.9 57.0 140 10 5 7.6 4.1 | 15.5 59.9 150 12 6 9.3 5.1
6000 14.5 58.1 135 9 5 8.3 4.5 | 16.2 61.2 150 12 6 12.0 6.6
5750 15.4 59.7 130 8 4 20.0 11.0 | 17.8 64.0 145 10 5 36.5 20.1
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/13/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +208.3 LI... -1.8 | CAPE... +256.1 LI... -2.8
CINH... -1.9 K Index... +23.7 | CINH... -14.3 K Index... +27.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.0 -92.2 220 61 31 4.5 2.5 | -69.5 -93.1 220 61 31 4.8 2.6
45000 -61.2 -78.2 230 78 40 7.0 3.8 | -61.3 -78.3 225 76 39 7.2 3.9
40000 -50.7 -59.3 225 86 44 7.5 4.1 | -50.6 -59.1 225 83 43 7.3 4.0
38000 -46.2 -51.2 225 84 43 7.5 4.1 | -46.2 -51.2 225 81 42 7.3 4.0
36000 -41.2 -42.2 225 81 42 7.4 4.0 | -41.3 -42.3 225 78 40 7.2 3.9
34000 -36.4 -33.5 225 78 40 8.0 4.4 | -36.5 -33.7 230 77 39 8.0 4.4
32000 -31.6 -24.9 225 76 39 7.9 4.4 | -31.7 -25.1 230 75 39 8.0 4.4
30000 -28.0 -18.4 225 71 36 5.4 3.0 | -28.0 -18.4 230 69 36 5.8 3.2
29000 -26.4 -15.5 225 67 35 5.5 3.0 | -26.3 -15.3 225 66 34 5.8 3.2
28000 -24.8 -12.6 225 64 33 5.5 3.0 | -24.5 -12.1 225 62 32 5.8 3.2
27000 -23.1 -9.6 225 61 31 5.6 3.1 | -22.8 -9.0 225 60 31 6.0 3.3
26000 -21.5 -6.7 225 59 30 5.6 3.1 | -21.0 -5.8 225 59 30 6.0 3.3
25000 -19.9 -3.8 225 56 29 5.7 3.1 | -19.2 -2.6 225 57 29 6.0 3.3
24000 -18.2 -0.8 220 53 27 5.7 3.1 | -17.5 0.5 220 55 28 5.7 3.1
23000 -16.4 2.5 220 50 26 5.7 3.1 | -15.4 4.3 220 53 27 5.7 3.1
22000 -14.3 6.3 220 46 24 5.7 3.1 | -13.7 7.3 220 50 26 5.7 3.1
21000 -12.3 9.9 220 43 22 6.7 3.7 | -12.1 10.2 220 46 24 5.7 3.1
20000 -10.3 13.5 220 39 20 6.7 3.7 | -10.5 13.1 220 42 21 5.8 3.2
19500 -9.3 15.3 220 38 19 6.7 3.7 | -9.6 14.7 220 39 20 5.8 3.2
19000 -8.3 17.1 220 36 19 6.8 3.7 | -8.8 16.2 215 37 19 6.9 3.8
18500 -7.3 18.9 220 35 18 6.9 3.8 | -7.7 18.1 220 36 18 7.2 4.0
18000 -6.3 20.7 220 34 17 6.9 3.8 | -6.7 19.9 220 34 18 7.2 4.0
17500 -5.4 22.3 220 33 17 6.8 3.8 | -5.6 21.9 220 33 17 7.3 4.0
17000 -4.4 24.1 225 32 16 6.9 3.8 | -4.6 23.7 220 32 16 7.3 4.0
16500 -3.4 25.9 225 31 16 6.6 3.6 | -3.5 25.7 220 31 16 7.2 4.0
16000 -2.5 27.5 225 30 15 6.5 3.6 | -2.5 27.5 220 30 15 7.2 3.9
15500 -1.6 29.1 225 29 15 6.4 3.5 | -1.5 29.3 220 29 15 6.6 3.6
15000 -0.8 30.6 225 28 14 6.0 3.3 | -0.7 30.7 220 27 14 5.5 3.0
14500 0.1 32.2 220 27 14 6.1 3.3 | 0.1 32.2 220 25 13 5.6 3.1
14000 0.9 33.6 220 26 13 5.9 3.2 | 0.8 33.4 215 24 12 5.5 3.0
13500 1.7 35.1 220 25 13 6.1 3.3 | 1.6 34.9 215 22 11 5.4 2.9
13000 2.4 36.3 220 24 12 4.7 2.6 | 2.4 36.3 215 20 11 7.0 3.8
12500 3.0 37.4 215 22 11 4.7 2.6 | 3.4 38.1 210 20 10 7.0 3.8
12000 3.7 38.7 210 21 11 6.0 3.3 | 4.4 39.9 205 19 10 7.3 4.0
11500 4.5 40.1 200 21 11 6.2 3.4 | 5.5 41.9 200 19 10 7.3 4.0
11000 5.4 41.7 195 20 10 6.9 3.8 | 6.6 43.9 195 20 10 8.2 4.5
10500 6.4 43.5 195 20 10 7.2 3.9 | 7.8 46.0 190 21 11 7.8 4.3
10250 6.9 44.4 195 19 10 7.5 4.1 | 8.3 46.9 190 21 11 7.4 4.1
10000 7.4 45.3 190 19 10 7.9 4.4 | 8.9 48.0 185 21 11 8.0 4.4
9750 8.0 46.4 190 19 10 8.3 4.6 | 9.5 49.1 185 22 11 8.1 4.4
9500 8.6 47.5 190 18 10 7.8 4.3 | 10.1 50.2 185 23 12 8.1 4.4
9250 9.2 48.6 190 18 9 7.3 4.0 | 10.6 51.1 180 23 12 8.2 4.5
9000 9.7 49.5 190 17 9 8.4 4.6 | 11.8 53.2 180 23 12 8.2 4.5
8750 10.4 50.7 185 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 12.4 54.3 180 23 12 7.9 4.3
8500 11.1 52.0 185 17 9 8.7 4.8 | 13.0 55.4 180 24 12 8.9 4.9
8250 12.5 54.5 185 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 13.7 56.7 175 23 12 9.5 5.2
8000 13.2 55.8 185 15 8 9.2 5.0 | 14.4 57.9 175 23 12 8.9 4.9
7750 13.8 56.8 185 15 8 9.3 5.1 | 15.0 59.0 175 23 12 9.0 5.0
7500 14.5 58.1 185 14 7 9.1 5.0 | 15.7 60.3 175 23 12 9.1 5.0
7250 15.2 59.4 185 14 7 9.5 5.2 | 16.3 61.3 175 22 12 8.8 4.9
7000 15.9 60.6 180 13 7 10.0 5.5 | 17.0 62.6 175 22 11 8.6 4.7
6750 16.7 62.1 180 13 7 9.8 5.4 | 17.6 63.7 170 21 11 8.7 4.8
6500 17.4 63.3 180 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 18.3 64.9 170 19 10 9.1 5.0
6250 18.1 64.6 180 12 6 11.2 6.1 | 18.9 66.0 170 18 9 7.5 4.1
6000 19.1 66.4 180 10 5 14.9 8.2 | 19.3 66.7 165 15 8 3.9 2.2
5750 20.0 68.0 180 9 5 8.1 4.5 | 19.6 67.3 165 12 6 10.5 5.7
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0718 MDT Monday October 13 2025
This forecast is for Monday, October 13, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 64.7 F/18.2 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 283 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11204 ft MSL (4753 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 66.0 F/19.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8434 ft MSL (1983 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 10/14...... Fair
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:09:40 / 18:31:17 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 21 min 37 sec (681 min 37 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:29 MDT... 46.25 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/13/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13867 ft MSL (7416 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11963 ft MSL (5512 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11653 ft MSL (5202 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.6
K index......................... +24.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.1 -90.6 230 58 30 4.6 2.5 74.2 165.6 32.7 M M
45000 -60.3 -76.5 235 76 39 6.1 3.4 62.9 145.3 27.9 M M
40000 -50.8 -59.4 235 91 47 8.0 4.4 55.4 131.7 24.7 M M
38000 -46.1 -51.0 235 91 47 7.9 4.4 53.5 128.3 24.1 M M
36000 -41.3 -42.3 230 92 47 7.9 4.3 52.2 126.0 23.8 M M
34000 -37.6 -35.7 230 86 44 5.6 3.1 49.2 120.5 22.2 M M
32000 -34.2 -29.6 230 77 40 5.6 3.1 45.9 114.7 20.3 M M
30000 -30.8 -23.4 230 68 35 5.8 3.2 42.7 108.9 18.3 M M
29000 -29.1 -20.4 230 63 33 5.9 3.2 41.2 106.1 17.3 M M
28000 -26.9 -16.4 230 58 30 6.0 3.3 39.5 103.1 16.2 M M
27000 -24.9 -12.8 230 52 27 6.7 3.7 38.2 100.8 15.3 M M
26000 -23.0 -9.4 230 47 24 6.7 3.7 37.0 98.6 14.5 M M
25000 -21.0 -5.8 230 42 22 6.7 3.7 36.0 96.8 13.8 M M
24000 -18.9 -2.0 230 39 20 7.1 3.9 34.9 94.9 13.1 M M
23000 -16.8 1.8 230 38 20 7.1 3.9 33.9 93.1 12.3 M M
22000 -14.8 5.4 230 37 19 7.2 3.9 33.1 91.5 11.7 M M
21000 -12.8 9.0 225 36 19 6.4 3.5 31.9 89.5 10.8 M M
20000 -10.9 12.4 225 36 19 6.4 3.5 30.8 87.4 9.9 M M
19500 -10.0 14.0 225 36 19 6.4 3.5 30.2 86.4 9.5 M M
19000 -9.0 15.8 220 36 19 6.2 3.4 29.7 85.5 9.0 M M
18500 -8.2 17.2 220 35 18 5.8 3.2 29.0 84.2 8.5 M M
18000 -7.3 18.9 220 35 18 5.8 3.2 28.3 83.0 7.9 M M
17500 -6.5 20.3 220 33 17 5.3 2.9 27.6 81.8 7.3 M M
17000 -5.7 21.7 220 31 16 5.3 2.9 26.9 80.4 6.6 M M
16500 -5.0 23.0 220 30 15 5.9 3.2 26.1 79.1 6.0 M M
16000 -4.0 24.8 215 28 14 6.5 3.6 25.6 78.1 5.5 M M
15500 -3.1 26.4 215 26 13 6.6 3.6 25.1 77.1 5.0 M M
15000 -2.1 28.2 210 25 13 6.4 3.5 24.5 76.1 4.5 M M
14500 -1.2 29.8 205 24 12 6.5 3.5 24.0 75.2 4.0 M M
14000 -0.4 31.3 205 23 12 6.1 3.3 23.4 74.1 3.4 M M
13500 0.5 32.9 200 22 11 6.1 3.4 22.8 73.1 2.8 M M
13000 1.3 34.3 195 21 11 6.1 3.4 22.2 72.0 2.2 M M
12500 2.1 35.8 190 21 11 6.1 3.4 21.6 71.0 1.5 M M
12000 3.0 37.4 190 20 10 6.4 3.5 21.1 70.0 0.9 M M
11500 4.4 39.9 185 18 9 6.7 3.7 20.4 68.6 0.2 M M
11000 5.4 41.7 180 18 9 7.2 4.0 19.9 67.8 -0.3 354 1.8
10500 6.4 43.5 180 17 9 7.6 4.1 19.5 67.1 -0.7 308 1.6
10250 7.0 44.6 175 17 9 7.4 4.0 19.4 66.8 -0.9 284 1.4
10000 7.5 45.5 170 16 8 6.6 3.6 19.1 66.4 -1.1 262 1.3
9750 7.9 46.2 170 16 8 7.2 3.9 18.9 66.0 -1.4 240 1.2
9500 8.4 47.1 165 15 8 5.6 3.1 18.7 65.6 -1.6 218 1.1
9250 8.7 47.7 165 16 8 4.3 2.4 18.3 64.9 -2.0 201 1.0
9000 9.1 48.4 160 15 8 5.5 3.0 17.9 64.2 -2.4 183 0.9
8750 9.5 49.1 155 15 8 5.8 3.2 17.6 63.6 -2.7 163 0.8
8500 10.0 50.0 150 15 8 5.5 3.0 17.3 63.1 -3.0 142 0.7
8250 10.4 50.7 145 15 8 4.8 2.6 16.9 62.5 -3.4 123 0.6
8000 10.7 51.3 140 15 8 4.6 2.5 16.5 61.8 -3.7 104 0.5
7750 11.1 52.0 140 14 7 4.7 2.6 16.1 61.1 -4.0 85 0.4
7500 11.6 52.9 135 14 7 4.7 2.6 15.8 60.4 -4.4 65 0.3
7250 11.9 53.4 135 12 6 4.6 2.5 15.4 59.7 -4.8 48 0.2
7000 12.2 54.0 135 11 6 3.9 2.1 15.0 59.0 -5.2 31 0.2
6750 12.3 54.1 135 10 5 -1.6 -0.9 14.4 57.9 -5.8 20 0.1
6500 11.5 52.7 140 6 3 -22.7 -12.5 12.9 55.2 -7.4 37 0.2
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/13/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... -0.5
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +24.6 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +22.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.0 -92.2 230 62 32 4.8 2.6 | -69.2 -92.6 225 62 32 4.1 2.2
45000 -60.7 -77.3 235 79 41 6.6 3.6 | -61.3 -78.3 230 79 41 7.3 4.0
40000 -50.6 -59.1 235 85 44 7.9 4.3 | -50.3 -58.5 230 85 44 7.5 4.1
38000 -45.9 -50.6 235 87 45 7.9 4.3 | -45.8 -50.4 230 85 44 7.5 4.1
36000 -41.2 -42.2 235 89 46 7.8 4.3 | -41.3 -42.3 230 84 43 7.5 4.1
34000 -37.3 -35.1 230 85 44 6.1 3.4 | -37.2 -35.0 230 82 42 6.8 3.7
32000 -33.6 -28.5 230 79 41 6.1 3.4 | -33.1 -27.6 230 78 40 6.8 3.7
30000 -30.0 -22.0 230 69 35 5.8 3.2 | -28.9 -20.0 230 71 36 6.1 3.4
29000 -27.8 -18.0 230 61 31 5.9 3.2 | -27.0 -16.6 225 67 34 6.1 3.4
28000 -26.1 -15.0 230 55 28 5.9 3.2 | -25.2 -13.4 225 63 32 6.2 3.4
27000 -24.3 -11.7 230 51 26 6.2 3.4 | -23.3 -9.9 225 59 30 6.2 3.4
26000 -22.4 -8.3 230 47 24 6.2 3.4 | -21.5 -6.7 225 55 28 6.2 3.4
25000 -20.6 -5.1 230 43 22 6.2 3.4 | -19.6 -3.3 225 50 26 6.3 3.4
24000 -18.7 -1.7 230 41 21 6.6 3.6 | -17.9 -0.2 225 47 24 5.8 3.2
23000 -16.7 1.9 230 39 20 6.6 3.6 | -16.1 3.0 225 44 23 5.8 3.2
22000 -14.7 5.5 230 37 19 6.5 3.6 | -14.4 6.1 225 41 21 5.7 3.1
21000 -12.6 9.3 230 36 18 7.6 4.2 | -12.4 9.7 225 38 20 6.7 3.7
20000 -10.3 13.5 225 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -10.4 13.3 220 36 18 6.8 3.7
19500 -9.2 15.4 225 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -9.5 14.9 220 35 18 6.8 3.7
19000 -8.1 17.4 220 35 18 7.0 3.8 | -8.5 16.7 220 33 17 6.7 3.7
18500 -7.2 19.0 220 35 18 6.3 3.5 | -7.5 18.5 220 33 17 6.7 3.7
18000 -6.3 20.7 215 35 18 6.4 3.5 | -6.5 20.3 220 33 17 7.0 3.8
17500 -5.5 22.1 215 35 18 5.1 2.8 | -5.7 21.7 215 33 17 5.2 2.9
17000 -4.7 23.5 215 35 18 5.3 2.9 | -4.9 23.2 215 33 17 5.4 3.0
16500 -4.0 24.8 210 35 18 5.1 2.8 | -4.2 24.4 215 33 17 5.3 2.9
16000 -3.4 25.9 210 33 17 4.9 2.7 | -3.5 25.7 215 33 17 5.1 2.8
15500 -2.7 27.1 210 32 16 5.0 2.8 | -2.8 27.0 215 32 17 5.2 2.9
15000 -2.0 28.4 205 30 16 5.7 3.1 | -2.1 28.2 215 32 16 5.2 2.9
14500 -1.2 29.8 205 29 15 5.6 3.1 | -1.4 29.5 215 31 16 5.1 2.8
14000 -0.4 31.3 200 28 15 5.6 3.1 | -0.6 30.9 215 30 16 7.2 4.0
13500 0.4 32.7 200 28 14 5.6 3.1 | 0.4 32.7 215 29 15 7.1 3.9
13000 1.2 34.2 195 27 14 6.4 3.5 | 1.4 34.5 215 28 15 6.9 3.8
12500 2.1 35.8 195 26 13 6.6 3.6 | 2.9 37.2 215 26 13 6.8 3.7
12000 3.5 38.3 190 24 12 6.2 3.4 | 3.7 38.7 215 24 12 4.8 2.6
11500 4.4 39.9 190 23 12 6.9 3.8 | 4.4 39.9 215 22 12 6.1 3.3
11000 5.2 41.4 185 23 12 4.6 2.5 | 5.3 41.5 210 22 11 5.9 3.2
10500 5.9 42.6 180 22 11 5.3 2.9 | 6.1 43.0 205 21 11 5.2 2.9
10250 6.3 43.3 175 21 11 4.9 2.7 | 6.4 43.5 200 21 11 3.4 1.9
10000 6.6 43.9 170 21 11 3.9 2.1 | 6.6 43.9 195 20 11 3.2 1.7
9750 6.9 44.4 170 20 10 4.6 2.5 | 6.9 44.4 185 20 10 3.4 1.9
9500 7.2 45.0 165 20 10 2.8 1.5 | 7.1 44.8 180 20 10 2.7 1.5
9250 7.4 45.3 160 21 11 4.0 2.2 | 7.3 45.1 175 21 11 2.9 1.6
9000 7.9 46.2 160 21 11 7.2 4.0 | 7.7 45.9 170 21 11 4.1 2.3
8750 8.5 47.3 155 20 11 7.5 4.1 | 8.0 46.4 165 20 10 4.0 2.2
8500 9.1 48.4 155 20 10 6.3 3.5 | 8.4 47.1 160 19 10 4.5 2.5
8250 9.5 49.1 155 19 10 4.4 2.4 | 8.8 47.8 155 19 10 5.7 3.1
8000 9.9 49.8 150 18 9 5.0 2.7 | 9.4 48.9 150 18 9 7.3 4.0
7750 10.4 50.7 150 17 9 5.2 2.8 | 10.0 50.0 145 17 9 7.8 4.3
7500 10.8 51.4 150 15 8 6.5 3.5 | 10.6 51.1 145 16 8 8.8 4.8
7250 11.4 52.5 150 14 7 8.0 4.4 | 11.3 52.3 145 16 8 10.1 5.5
7000 12.0 53.6 150 13 7 7.6 4.2 | 12.1 53.8 145 15 8 8.6 4.7
6750 12.7 54.9 150 12 6 10.7 5.8 | 12.7 54.9 145 14 7 8.7 4.8
6500 13.9 57.0 155 10 5 23.2 12.7 | 13.7 56.7 145 11 6 22.6 12.4
10/13/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/13/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... -0.5 | CAPE... +15.1 LI... -0.8
CINH... -0.9 K Index... +15.0 | CINH... -4.6 K Index... +24.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.1 -92.4 225 65 33 4.1 2.3 | -68.9 -92.0 220 64 33 4.5 2.5
45000 -61.3 -78.3 230 80 41 7.1 3.9 | -61.0 -77.8 225 79 41 7.0 3.8
40000 -50.6 -59.1 225 86 44 7.5 4.1 | -50.4 -58.7 225 87 45 7.2 4.0
38000 -46.1 -51.0 230 84 43 7.5 4.1 | -46.1 -51.0 225 85 44 7.2 4.0
36000 -41.6 -42.9 230 82 42 7.5 4.1 | -41.8 -43.2 230 82 42 7.2 4.0
34000 -36.9 -34.4 230 80 41 7.9 4.3 | -37.1 -34.8 230 80 41 7.9 4.3
32000 -32.2 -26.0 225 78 40 7.8 4.3 | -32.3 -26.1 230 78 40 7.9 4.3
30000 -28.5 -19.3 225 71 37 5.3 2.9 | -28.3 -18.9 230 68 35 5.3 2.9
29000 -26.5 -15.7 225 66 34 5.4 3.0 | -26.7 -16.1 225 63 32 5.4 2.9
28000 -24.9 -12.8 225 62 32 5.6 3.1 | -25.2 -13.4 225 57 29 5.8 3.2
27000 -23.2 -9.8 225 59 31 5.9 3.2 | -23.2 -9.8 225 55 29 6.6 3.6
26000 -21.4 -6.5 225 57 29 5.9 3.2 | -21.3 -6.3 225 54 28 6.6 3.6
25000 -19.7 -3.5 225 55 28 5.9 3.3 | -19.3 -2.7 225 53 27 6.7 3.7
24000 -17.9 -0.2 225 52 27 6.1 3.3 | -17.4 0.7 225 51 27 6.4 3.5
23000 -16.0 3.2 225 50 26 6.1 3.3 | -15.5 4.1 225 51 26 6.4 3.5
22000 -14.2 6.4 225 47 24 6.0 3.3 | -13.5 7.7 225 50 25 6.5 3.6
21000 -12.3 9.9 225 44 23 6.5 3.6 | -11.8 10.8 220 48 24 5.6 3.1
20000 -10.4 13.3 225 42 22 6.5 3.6 | -10.2 13.6 220 45 23 5.7 3.1
19500 -9.4 15.1 225 41 21 6.5 3.6 | -9.3 15.3 220 44 23 5.7 3.1
19000 -8.4 16.9 225 39 20 6.5 3.6 | -8.5 16.7 220 43 22 5.4 2.9
18500 -7.5 18.5 225 38 20 6.5 3.6 | -7.8 18.0 220 41 21 5.1 2.8
18000 -6.5 20.3 225 37 19 6.5 3.6 | -7.0 19.4 220 39 20 4.8 2.6
17500 -5.6 21.9 225 36 19 6.6 3.6 | -6.1 21.0 220 38 19 7.5 4.1
17000 -4.6 23.7 225 35 18 6.6 3.6 | -5.1 22.8 220 36 19 7.3 4.0
16500 -3.6 25.5 225 34 18 6.4 3.5 | -4.0 24.8 220 35 18 6.6 3.6
16000 -2.8 27.0 225 33 17 6.2 3.4 | -3.2 26.2 220 33 17 6.1 3.3
15500 -1.9 28.6 225 32 17 6.2 3.4 | -2.3 27.9 220 32 16 6.0 3.3
15000 -1.1 30.0 225 31 16 5.6 3.1 | -1.6 29.1 220 30 15 5.2 2.9
14500 -0.3 31.5 220 31 16 5.9 3.2 | -0.9 30.4 215 28 15 5.4 2.9
14000 0.3 32.5 220 30 15 4.5 2.5 | -0.2 31.6 215 27 14 5.6 3.1
13500 0.9 33.6 220 29 15 4.7 2.6 | 0.6 33.1 210 26 14 5.5 3.0
13000 1.5 34.7 215 29 15 6.6 3.6 | 1.5 34.7 205 26 13 7.3 4.0
12500 2.4 36.3 215 28 14 7.0 3.8 | 3.2 37.8 205 25 13 7.6 4.2
12000 3.3 37.9 210 26 14 5.1 2.8 | 4.2 39.6 200 24 13 6.9 3.8
11500 4.3 39.7 200 23 12 5.1 2.8 | 5.1 41.2 195 24 12 6.1 3.4
11000 5.0 41.0 195 22 11 5.0 2.8 | 6.0 42.8 185 23 12 5.9 3.3
10500 5.8 42.4 190 20 10 4.4 2.4 | 6.8 44.2 180 23 12 4.2 2.3
10250 6.1 43.0 185 19 10 5.1 2.8 | 7.1 44.8 170 23 12 4.8 2.6
10000 6.6 43.9 180 19 10 6.9 3.8 | 7.6 45.7 170 23 12 7.9 4.3
9750 7.1 44.8 175 18 9 5.8 3.2 | 8.2 46.8 165 23 12 6.5 3.6
9500 7.6 45.7 170 18 9 8.3 4.5 | 8.7 47.7 160 23 12 8.9 4.9
9250 8.4 47.1 165 18 9 9.8 5.4 | 9.5 49.1 160 23 12 9.4 5.1
9000 9.0 48.2 165 17 9 8.3 4.6 | 10.1 50.2 155 23 12 7.6 4.1
8750 9.7 49.5 160 17 9 8.3 4.5 | 10.7 51.3 155 22 11 7.8 4.3
8500 10.3 50.5 160 17 9 8.7 4.8 | 11.3 52.3 150 21 11 8.1 4.4
8250 11.0 51.8 155 17 9 9.6 5.3 | 11.9 53.4 145 22 11 8.7 4.8
8000 11.7 53.1 155 16 8 9.7 5.3 | 12.6 54.7 145 22 11 8.5 4.7
7750 12.4 54.3 155 16 8 9.6 5.2 | 13.2 55.8 140 20 11 8.4 4.6
7500 13.2 55.8 155 15 8 9.8 5.4 | 13.9 57.0 140 19 10 8.3 4.6
7250 13.9 57.0 150 15 8 10.3 5.6 | 14.5 58.1 135 19 10 8.1 4.5
7000 14.6 58.3 150 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 15.1 59.2 135 18 9 7.7 4.2
6750 15.4 59.7 150 14 7 12.1 6.6 | 15.6 60.1 130 16 8 6.2 3.4
6500 17.1 62.8 150 12 6 43.5 23.9 | 16.0 60.8 130 12 6 4.3 2.3
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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