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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0723 MDT Friday October 31 2025
This forecast is for Friday, October 31, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 64.5 F/18.0 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 377 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11105 ft MSL (4768 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 66.0 F/19.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8469 ft MSL (2132 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 11/01..... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:24:36 / 18:10:30 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 45 min 54 sec (645 min 54 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:47:33 MDT... 40.56 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/31/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13133 ft MSL (6796 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21339 ft MSL (15002 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18040 ft MSL (11703 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +6.5
K index......................... -2.6
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.1 -83.4 295 62 32 1.1 0.6 84.8 184.7 38.5 M M
45000 -62.4 -80.3 290 73 38 1.0 0.5 64.9 148.9 28.7 M M
40000 -60.9 -77.6 305 71 36 0.9 0.5 44.6 112.2 17.2 M M
38000 -56.7 -70.1 305 66 34 7.5 4.1 40.9 105.6 15.2 M M
36000 -52.2 -62.0 305 60 31 7.5 4.1 39.1 102.4 14.3 M M
34000 -47.5 -53.5 305 55 28 8.1 4.4 37.5 99.5 13.5 M M
32000 -42.6 -44.7 300 48 25 8.1 4.4 36.2 97.1 12.8 M M
30000 -37.6 -35.7 300 44 23 8.5 4.7 35.0 95.0 12.3 M M
29000 -35.1 -31.2 300 43 22 8.5 4.7 34.5 94.2 12.0 M M
28000 -32.5 -26.5 300 42 22 8.5 4.7 34.2 93.5 11.9 M M
27000 -30.2 -22.4 300 41 21 7.3 4.0 33.4 92.2 11.5 M M
26000 -28.0 -18.4 300 39 20 7.2 4.0 32.4 90.4 10.8 M M
25000 -25.8 -14.4 300 37 19 7.2 4.0 31.5 88.7 10.2 M M
24000 -23.6 -10.5 295 35 18 7.5 4.1 30.7 87.2 9.6 M M
23000 -21.4 -6.5 295 34 17 7.5 4.1 29.8 85.6 9.0 M M
22000 -19.2 -2.6 295 32 17 7.4 4.1 29.0 84.2 8.4 M M
21000 -16.5 2.3 295 32 16 6.8 3.8 27.8 82.1 7.5 M M
20000 -14.4 6.1 295 32 16 6.8 3.8 26.8 80.2 6.7 M M
19500 -13.4 7.9 295 32 16 6.8 3.7 26.3 79.4 6.4 M M
19000 -12.4 9.7 295 32 16 6.1 3.4 25.9 78.5 6.0 M M
18500 -11.6 11.1 290 32 17 5.6 3.1 25.1 77.2 5.4 M M
18000 -10.7 12.7 290 32 17 5.5 3.0 24.4 75.9 4.8 M M
17500 -9.9 14.2 290 33 17 6.1 3.3 23.7 74.7 4.2 M M
17000 -9.0 15.8 290 33 17 6.0 3.3 23.1 73.6 3.6 M M
16500 -8.0 17.6 290 34 17 7.3 4.0 22.5 72.6 3.1 M M
16000 -6.9 19.6 290 34 18 7.8 4.3 22.2 72.0 2.8 M M
15500 -5.7 21.7 290 34 18 7.9 4.3 21.9 71.4 2.6 M M
15000 -4.5 23.9 290 34 18 8.2 4.5 21.6 70.9 2.3 M M
14500 -3.3 26.1 290 34 18 8.2 4.5 21.4 70.5 2.1 M M
14000 -2.1 28.2 295 34 18 8.2 4.5 21.1 70.0 1.8 M M
13500 -0.9 30.4 295 34 17 8.2 4.5 20.9 69.5 1.6 M M
13000 0.3 32.5 295 33 17 7.8 4.3 20.6 69.0 1.3 M M
12500 1.5 34.7 295 32 17 7.9 4.3 20.3 68.5 1.1 M M
12000 2.6 36.7 295 31 16 7.4 4.1 19.9 67.9 0.7 M M
11500 3.7 38.7 295 29 15 7.5 4.1 19.6 67.2 0.4 M M
11000 4.7 40.5 295 27 14 6.3 3.4 19.1 66.4 -0.1 370 1.9
10500 5.7 42.3 295 25 13 6.4 3.5 18.6 65.5 -0.6 327 1.7
10250 6.1 43.0 290 24 12 6.7 3.7 18.3 65.0 -0.9 305 1.6
10000 6.7 44.1 285 22 11 6.6 3.6 18.1 64.6 -1.1 283 1.4
9750 7.1 44.8 280 21 11 6.2 3.4 17.8 64.1 -1.4 261 1.3
9500 7.6 45.7 275 20 10 6.4 3.5 17.6 63.6 -1.6 240 1.2
9250 8.1 46.6 270 19 10 6.3 3.4 17.3 63.2 -1.9 219 1.1
9000 8.5 47.3 265 18 9 5.8 3.2 17.0 62.7 -2.2 198 1.0
8750 8.9 48.0 265 18 9 5.3 2.9 16.7 62.1 -2.5 178 0.9
8500 9.3 48.7 260 17 9 5.3 2.9 16.4 61.4 -2.9 159 0.8
8250 9.7 49.5 260 16 8 4.3 2.3 16.0 60.8 -3.2 140 0.7
8000 9.9 49.8 260 15 8 3.2 1.7 15.5 59.9 -3.7 125 0.6
7750 10.2 50.4 260 14 7 3.0 1.6 15.0 59.0 -4.2 110 0.6
7500 10.3 50.5 260 12 6 1.0 0.6 14.4 58.0 -4.8 98 0.5
7250 10.3 50.5 255 11 5 -2.0 -1.1 13.7 56.6 -5.6 92 0.5
7000 10.1 50.2 255 8 4 -3.6 -2.0 12.7 54.8 -6.6 92 0.5
6750 9.8 49.6 245 6 3 -1.6 -0.9 11.7 53.1 -7.6 91 0.5
6500 9.4 48.9 230 4 2 -15.4 -8.4 10.6 51.0 -8.7 97 0.5
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/31/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +0.2 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +1.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 290 61 32 0.4 0.2 | -62.3 -80.1 295 56 29 0.4 0.2
45000 -62.7 -80.9 290 74 38 1.2 0.7 | -61.8 -79.2 285 66 34 0.3 0.2
40000 -60.8 -77.4 290 65 34 1.1 0.6 | -61.3 -78.3 280 74 38 0.5 0.3
38000 -56.6 -69.9 295 63 32 7.3 4.0 | -57.1 -70.8 280 70 36 7.8 4.3
36000 -52.2 -62.0 295 61 31 7.3 4.0 | -52.4 -62.3 285 65 34 7.8 4.3
34000 -47.6 -53.7 295 57 29 7.9 4.3 | -47.7 -53.9 285 63 32 8.0 4.4
32000 -42.9 -45.2 295 51 26 7.9 4.4 | -42.9 -45.2 280 62 32 8.0 4.4
30000 -38.0 -36.4 295 47 24 8.3 4.6 | -38.2 -36.8 280 60 31 7.9 4.3
29000 -35.5 -31.9 295 46 24 8.3 4.6 | -35.8 -32.4 280 58 30 7.9 4.3
28000 -33.0 -27.4 295 45 23 8.3 4.6 | -33.5 -28.3 280 56 29 7.9 4.3
27000 -30.6 -23.1 295 44 23 7.9 4.3 | -31.2 -24.2 280 53 28 7.5 4.1
26000 -28.2 -18.8 295 43 22 7.9 4.3 | -28.9 -20.0 280 50 25 7.5 4.1
25000 -25.9 -14.6 295 42 22 7.9 4.3 | -26.7 -16.1 280 46 23 7.5 4.1
24000 -23.6 -10.5 295 41 21 7.3 4.0 | -24.5 -12.1 285 42 22 7.1 3.9
23000 -21.4 -6.5 290 39 20 7.3 4.0 | -22.3 -8.1 285 40 21 7.2 3.9
22000 -19.1 -2.4 290 38 20 7.3 4.0 | -20.1 -4.2 285 38 19 7.2 3.9
21000 -17.0 1.4 290 36 19 6.7 3.7 | -17.6 0.3 285 36 18 6.3 3.5
20000 -14.5 5.9 290 34 17 6.7 3.7 | -15.7 3.7 290 34 18 6.3 3.5
19500 -13.5 7.7 290 32 17 6.7 3.7 | -14.8 5.4 290 33 17 6.3 3.5
19000 -12.5 9.5 290 31 16 5.8 3.2 | -13.8 7.2 290 33 17 6.2 3.4
18500 -11.7 10.9 290 31 16 5.2 2.9 | -12.9 8.8 290 33 17 6.0 3.3
18000 -10.9 12.4 290 31 16 5.2 2.8 | -12.0 10.4 290 33 17 5.9 3.3
17500 -10.1 13.8 290 32 16 5.6 3.0 | -11.0 12.2 290 33 17 6.9 3.8
17000 -9.3 15.3 285 33 17 5.5 3.0 | -10.0 14.0 290 33 17 6.8 3.8
16500 -8.5 16.7 285 33 17 6.6 3.6 | -9.0 15.8 290 34 17 7.6 4.2
16000 -7.5 18.5 285 34 17 7.0 3.8 | -7.8 18.0 290 34 17 7.9 4.4
15500 -6.4 20.5 285 34 18 7.5 4.1 | -6.6 20.1 290 34 18 8.0 4.4
15000 -5.2 22.6 285 35 18 8.5 4.7 | -5.4 22.3 290 34 18 8.2 4.5
14500 -3.9 25.0 285 35 18 8.5 4.7 | -4.2 24.4 290 34 18 8.2 4.5
14000 -2.7 27.1 285 34 18 8.5 4.7 | -2.9 26.8 290 34 17 8.4 4.6
13500 -1.4 29.5 285 34 17 8.5 4.7 | -1.7 28.9 290 33 17 8.4 4.6
13000 -0.1 31.8 285 33 17 8.4 4.6 | -0.5 31.1 290 33 17 8.1 4.4
12500 1.1 34.0 285 32 17 8.5 4.7 | 0.7 33.3 290 32 17 8.1 4.4
12000 2.4 36.3 285 31 16 7.9 4.3 | 1.9 35.4 290 31 16 8.2 4.5
11500 3.5 38.3 290 30 16 7.9 4.4 | 3.2 37.8 290 30 16 8.2 4.5
11000 4.7 40.5 290 29 15 7.3 4.0 | 4.3 39.7 290 29 15 7.5 4.1
10500 5.8 42.4 290 27 14 7.4 4.1 | 5.4 41.7 290 27 14 7.9 4.3
10250 6.3 43.3 290 27 14 7.3 4.0 | 6.0 42.8 290 26 13 5.8 3.2
10000 6.9 44.4 290 26 13 6.9 3.8 | 6.3 43.3 290 25 13 4.8 2.6
9750 7.4 45.3 285 25 13 6.8 3.7 | 6.7 44.1 285 23 12 6.3 3.5
9500 7.9 46.2 285 24 12 6.6 3.6 | 7.2 45.0 285 21 11 5.4 2.9
9250 8.4 47.1 285 23 12 7.6 4.2 | 7.6 45.7 285 20 10 7.7 4.2
9000 8.9 48.0 280 22 11 7.0 3.9 | 8.3 46.9 280 19 10 9.4 5.2
8750 9.4 48.9 275 21 11 5.0 2.7 | 8.9 48.0 280 19 10 8.3 4.5
8500 9.7 49.5 275 20 10 5.0 2.7 | 9.6 49.3 280 18 9 8.4 4.6
8250 10.1 50.2 270 19 10 4.0 2.2 | 10.2 50.4 280 18 9 8.7 4.8
8000 10.3 50.5 270 18 9 3.0 1.6 | 10.9 51.6 275 18 9 9.2 5.0
7750 10.5 50.9 265 17 9 2.5 1.4 | 11.6 52.9 275 18 9 9.3 5.1
7500 10.6 51.1 265 17 9 0.7 0.4 | 12.3 54.1 275 17 9 9.6 5.3
7250 10.6 51.1 265 15 8 -1.8 -1.0 | 13.0 55.4 275 17 9 10.0 5.5
7000 10.4 50.7 265 12 6 -2.2 -1.2 | 13.8 56.8 275 17 9 10.5 5.7
6750 10.2 50.4 265 10 5 -3.4 -1.9 | 14.5 58.1 275 16 8 9.4 5.2
6500 9.9 49.8 260 6 3 -4.6 -2.5 | 15.3 59.5 275 16 8 12.5 6.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/31/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.6
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +3.2 | CINH... -0.2 K Index... +5.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.4 -80.3 300 50 26 1.3 0.7 | -61.2 -78.2 305 46 24 0.8 0.5
45000 -60.4 -76.7 295 61 31 1.8 1.0 | -59.7 -75.5 315 52 27 2.5 1.3
40000 -57.8 -72.0 280 61 31 1.8 1.0 | -56.1 -69.0 315 54 28 2.4 1.3
38000 -55.5 -67.9 275 65 33 4.6 2.5 | -53.8 -64.8 325 53 27 4.4 2.4
36000 -52.4 -62.3 270 71 37 4.6 2.5 | -50.8 -59.4 340 54 28 4.4 2.4
34000 -48.9 -56.0 270 69 36 7.4 4.1 | -47.5 -53.5 350 57 29 7.2 4.0
32000 -44.4 -47.9 275 59 30 7.4 4.1 | -43.1 -45.6 350 59 30 7.2 4.0
30000 -39.9 -39.8 280 55 28 7.9 4.3 | -39.4 -38.9 345 57 29 4.6 2.5
29000 -37.5 -35.5 280 57 29 7.9 4.3 | -38.0 -36.4 335 53 27 4.6 2.5
28000 -35.2 -31.4 285 59 30 7.9 4.3 | -36.6 -33.9 330 51 26 4.6 2.5
27000 -32.9 -27.2 285 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -35.0 -31.0 320 49 25 8.0 4.4
26000 -30.9 -23.6 280 55 28 6.8 3.7 | -32.7 -26.9 320 47 24 7.6 4.2
25000 -28.9 -20.0 280 51 26 6.8 3.7 | -30.5 -22.9 315 44 23 7.7 4.2
24000 -26.8 -16.2 280 47 24 7.8 4.3 | -28.2 -18.8 315 43 22 8.1 4.5
23000 -24.5 -12.1 285 44 23 7.8 4.3 | -25.7 -14.3 315 43 22 8.2 4.5
22000 -22.1 -7.8 285 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -23.3 -9.9 315 43 22 8.3 4.5
21000 -19.8 -3.6 290 38 20 7.6 4.2 | -20.9 -5.6 310 43 22 7.3 4.0
20000 -16.9 1.6 290 37 19 7.6 4.2 | -18.1 -0.6 305 42 22 7.4 4.0
19500 -15.8 3.6 290 36 18 7.6 4.2 | -17.0 1.4 305 41 21 7.4 4.0
19000 -14.6 5.7 290 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -15.9 3.4 305 41 21 7.6 4.1
18500 -13.5 7.7 290 34 18 7.4 4.1 | -14.7 5.5 305 40 21 8.1 4.4
18000 -12.4 9.7 290 34 17 7.4 4.0 | -13.5 7.7 305 40 20 8.1 4.4
17500 -11.3 11.7 295 34 17 7.9 4.3 | -12.3 9.9 305 39 20 7.9 4.3
17000 -10.1 13.8 295 33 17 7.9 4.3 | -11.1 12.0 305 38 20 7.9 4.3
16500 -8.9 16.0 295 33 17 8.1 4.4 | -10.6 12.9 305 38 19 8.0 4.4
16000 -7.7 18.1 295 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -8.7 16.3 305 37 19 8.2 4.5
15500 -6.5 20.3 295 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -7.5 18.5 305 37 19 8.2 4.5
15000 -5.2 22.6 295 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -6.3 20.7 305 36 19 8.2 4.5
14500 -4.0 24.8 295 33 17 8.2 4.5 | -5.1 22.8 305 36 18 8.2 4.5
14000 -2.8 27.0 295 34 17 7.9 4.3 | -3.8 25.2 300 35 18 8.6 4.7
13500 -1.6 29.1 295 34 17 7.9 4.3 | -2.5 27.5 300 35 18 8.6 4.7
13000 -0.4 31.3 295 34 17 8.1 4.5 | -1.2 29.8 300 34 18 9.0 4.9
12500 0.8 33.4 295 34 18 8.1 4.5 | 0.1 32.2 300 34 18 9.0 4.9
12000 2.0 35.6 290 34 18 8.2 4.5 | 1.4 34.5 300 34 17 9.0 5.0
11500 3.2 37.8 290 34 17 8.3 4.5 | 2.8 37.0 300 34 17 9.0 4.9
11000 4.3 39.7 290 33 17 7.0 3.9 | 4.1 39.4 300 33 17 8.9 4.9
10500 5.3 41.5 290 30 16 6.9 3.8 | 5.5 41.9 300 33 17 9.2 5.1
10250 5.8 42.4 290 29 15 6.6 3.6 | 6.2 43.2 300 33 17 8.9 4.9
10000 6.3 43.3 285 28 14 7.6 4.2 | 6.8 44.2 300 33 17 8.6 4.7
9750 7.0 44.6 285 27 14 8.7 4.8 | 7.5 45.5 300 33 17 8.8 4.8
9500 7.6 45.7 285 26 13 8.0 4.4 | 8.1 46.6 300 33 17 8.6 4.7
9250 8.2 46.8 285 25 13 9.7 5.3 | 8.8 47.8 300 33 17 9.4 5.2
9000 9.0 48.2 285 24 12 9.9 5.4 | 9.5 49.1 300 33 17 8.7 4.8
8750 9.6 49.3 285 24 12 8.3 4.6 | 10.0 50.0 305 32 17 7.2 4.0
8500 10.3 50.5 285 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 10.6 51.1 305 32 16 7.4 4.0
8250 10.9 51.6 280 23 12 9.3 5.1 | 11.1 52.0 305 31 16 7.5 4.1
8000 11.7 53.1 280 22 12 10.3 5.6 | 11.7 53.1 305 30 15 7.6 4.2
7750 12.4 54.3 280 22 11 9.4 5.2 | 12.2 54.0 305 28 14 7.3 4.0
7500 13.1 55.6 280 22 11 9.3 5.1 | 12.7 54.9 310 26 14 7.1 3.9
7250 13.8 56.8 280 21 11 10.0 5.5 | 13.3 55.9 310 25 13 7.3 4.0
7000 14.6 58.3 280 20 11 10.8 5.9 | 13.8 56.8 310 23 12 7.2 3.9
6750 15.4 59.7 280 20 10 9.3 5.1 | 14.4 57.9 310 21 11 7.5 4.1
6500 16.1 61.0 280 19 10 10.9 6.0 | 14.8 58.6 310 18 9 3.5 1.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0724 MDT Friday October 31 2025
This forecast is for Friday, October 31, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 67.2 F/19.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 366 ft/min (1.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 10559 ft MSL (4878 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 69.0 F/21.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1445 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8317 ft MSL (2636 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 11/01..... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:27:10 / 18:12:54 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 45 min 43 sec (645 min 43 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:02 MDT... 40.53 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/31/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 13068 ft MSL (7387 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21437 ft MSL (15756 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17857 ft MSL (12176 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +6.9
K index......................... +0.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 290 61 31 1.4 0.8 86.6 187.9 38.3 M M
45000 -62.4 -80.3 290 70 36 1.1 0.6 67.3 153.1 28.9 M M
40000 -60.6 -77.1 300 67 35 1.5 0.8 46.3 115.3 17.1 M M
38000 -56.4 -69.5 300 64 33 7.5 4.1 43.4 110.2 15.7 M M
36000 -51.9 -61.4 305 60 31 7.5 4.1 41.7 107.0 14.8 M M
34000 -47.3 -53.1 305 56 29 8.0 4.4 40.0 104.0 14.0 M M
32000 -42.5 -44.5 300 49 25 8.0 4.4 38.6 101.4 13.3 M M
30000 -37.6 -35.7 300 45 23 8.5 4.7 37.4 99.3 12.7 M M
29000 -35.0 -31.0 300 44 23 8.5 4.7 36.9 98.4 12.5 M M
28000 -32.4 -26.3 300 43 22 8.5 4.7 36.5 97.7 12.3 M M
27000 -30.0 -22.0 300 42 22 7.5 4.1 35.9 96.6 12.0 M M
26000 -27.8 -18.0 300 41 21 7.5 4.1 35.0 95.0 11.4 M M
25000 -25.0 -13.0 295 39 20 7.5 4.1 34.0 93.2 10.8 M M
24000 -22.7 -8.9 295 37 19 7.3 4.0 33.1 91.6 10.2 M M
23000 -20.6 -5.1 295 36 18 7.3 4.0 32.2 89.9 9.5 M M
22000 -18.4 -1.1 290 34 18 7.3 4.0 31.3 88.4 8.9 M M
21000 -16.4 2.5 290 33 17 6.4 3.5 30.2 86.4 8.1 M M
20000 -14.5 5.9 290 33 17 6.4 3.5 29.0 84.3 7.2 M M
19500 -13.5 7.7 290 33 17 6.3 3.5 28.5 83.3 6.7 M M
19000 -12.5 9.5 290 32 17 5.6 3.1 27.9 82.3 6.3 M M
18500 -11.9 10.6 290 32 17 4.5 2.4 27.0 80.7 5.6 M M
18000 -11.2 11.8 285 32 17 4.3 2.3 26.1 79.1 4.8 M M
17500 -10.4 13.3 285 32 17 6.2 3.4 25.4 77.7 4.1 M M
17000 -9.5 14.9 285 33 17 6.2 3.4 24.7 76.5 3.6 M M
16500 -8.6 16.5 285 33 17 7.2 3.9 24.2 75.5 3.1 M M
16000 -7.4 18.7 285 33 17 7.9 4.4 23.9 74.9 2.8 M M
15500 -6.3 20.7 285 33 17 8.1 4.4 23.6 74.4 2.5 M M
15000 -5.0 23.0 285 33 17 8.5 4.7 23.3 74.0 2.3 M M
14500 -3.8 25.2 285 33 17 8.5 4.6 23.1 73.6 2.1 M M
14000 -2.5 27.5 285 32 17 8.5 4.7 22.9 73.2 1.9 M M
13500 -1.3 29.7 290 32 16 8.5 4.7 22.7 72.9 1.7 M M
13000 0.0 32.0 290 31 16 8.3 4.5 22.5 72.5 1.5 M M
12500 1.2 34.2 290 30 15 8.3 4.5 22.2 72.0 1.3 M M
12000 2.5 36.5 295 29 15 8.0 4.4 22.0 71.6 1.1 M M
11500 3.6 38.5 295 27 14 8.0 4.4 21.7 71.1 0.8 M M
11000 4.8 40.6 295 26 13 7.1 3.9 21.4 70.5 0.5 M M
10500 5.8 42.4 295 23 12 7.0 3.8 20.9 69.7 0.0 M M
10250 6.3 43.3 295 22 11 6.8 3.7 20.7 69.3 -0.2 347 1.8
10000 6.8 44.2 290 21 11 6.0 3.3 20.4 68.8 -0.4 326 1.7
9750 7.2 45.0 290 19 10 5.7 3.1 20.1 68.2 -0.8 306 1.6
9500 7.6 45.7 285 18 9 5.8 3.2 19.8 67.7 -1.1 286 1.5
9250 8.5 47.3 280 14 7 5.2 2.9 19.2 66.6 -1.7 245 1.2
9000 8.8 47.8 275 13 7 4.5 2.5 18.8 65.9 -2.1 228 1.2
8750 9.2 48.6 265 12 6 4.9 2.7 18.4 65.2 -2.5 210 1.1
8500 9.5 49.1 260 11 6 3.9 2.2 18.0 64.5 -2.9 192 1.0
8250 9.8 49.6 255 11 5 3.8 2.1 17.5 63.6 -3.3 177 0.9
8000 10.1 50.2 250 10 5 4.6 2.5 17.1 62.8 -3.8 160 0.8
7750 10.4 50.7 240 9 5 4.3 2.4 16.7 62.1 -4.2 143 0.7
7500 10.7 51.3 235 8 4 2.9 1.6 16.3 61.3 -4.6 127 0.6
7250 10.9 51.6 225 7 4 2.6 1.4 15.7 60.3 -5.2 114 0.6
7000 11.1 52.0 220 6 3 3.2 1.8 15.2 59.4 -5.7 99 0.5
6750 11.4 52.5 215 6 3 3.4 1.8 14.7 58.5 -6.2 85 0.4
6500 11.6 52.9 210 5 2 3.2 1.7 14.2 57.6 -6.7 70 0.4
6250 11.9 53.4 200 4 2 5.1 2.8 13.8 56.8 -7.2 55 0.3
6000 12.0 53.6 190 3 2 -7.6 -4.2 13.2 55.7 -7.8 43 0.2
5750 8.6 47.5 165 2 1 -99.0 -54.3 9.0 48.3 -11.9 138 0.7
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/31/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.4
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +2.1 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +2.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.0 -83.2 290 58 30 0.8 0.4 | -62.6 -80.7 295 56 29 0.9 0.5
45000 -62.7 -80.9 290 67 35 1.4 0.8 | -61.2 -78.2 290 63 33 0.6 0.4
40000 -60.6 -77.1 285 66 34 1.6 0.9 | -60.2 -76.4 285 74 38 -0.2 -0.1
38000 -56.6 -69.9 290 64 33 7.1 3.9 | -56.5 -69.7 285 70 36 7.1 3.9
36000 -52.4 -62.3 290 62 32 7.1 3.9 | -52.2 -62.0 280 65 34 7.1 3.9
34000 -47.7 -53.9 295 58 30 8.3 4.5 | -47.7 -53.9 280 63 33 7.9 4.3
32000 -42.8 -45.0 295 52 27 8.3 4.5 | -42.9 -45.2 280 63 33 7.9 4.3
30000 -37.9 -36.2 295 49 25 8.1 4.5 | -38.2 -36.8 280 62 32 7.8 4.3
29000 -35.5 -31.9 300 49 25 8.1 4.5 | -35.9 -32.6 280 60 31 7.8 4.3
28000 -33.0 -27.4 300 48 25 8.2 4.5 | -33.5 -28.3 280 58 30 7.8 4.3
27000 -30.6 -23.1 300 47 24 8.2 4.5 | -31.3 -24.3 280 56 29 7.2 3.9
26000 -28.2 -18.8 295 45 23 8.2 4.5 | -29.1 -20.4 280 52 27 7.2 4.0
25000 -25.7 -14.3 295 42 22 8.2 4.5 | -26.4 -15.5 285 47 24 7.2 4.0
24000 -22.8 -9.0 295 40 21 7.1 3.9 | -24.2 -11.6 285 44 23 7.3 4.0
23000 -20.7 -5.3 290 40 21 7.1 3.9 | -22.1 -7.8 285 41 21 7.3 4.0
22000 -18.5 -1.3 290 40 20 7.2 3.9 | -19.9 -3.8 285 39 20 7.4 4.0
21000 -16.5 2.3 290 38 19 6.5 3.6 | -17.8 -0.0 285 36 19 6.3 3.5
20000 -14.5 5.9 290 35 18 6.5 3.6 | -15.9 3.4 285 34 18 6.3 3.5
19500 -13.6 7.5 290 34 17 6.4 3.5 | -15.0 5.0 285 33 17 6.3 3.5
19000 -12.6 9.3 290 32 17 5.6 3.1 | -14.0 6.8 285 32 17 6.2 3.4
18500 -11.9 10.6 290 32 16 4.5 2.4 | -13.2 8.2 285 32 16 5.9 3.2
18000 -11.3 11.7 285 31 16 4.3 2.4 | -12.3 9.9 285 31 16 5.8 3.2
17500 -10.5 13.1 285 31 16 5.5 3.0 | -11.3 11.7 285 31 16 7.1 3.9
17000 -9.7 14.5 285 32 16 5.5 3.0 | -10.3 13.5 285 31 16 7.1 3.9
16500 -8.9 16.0 285 32 17 6.7 3.7 | -9.2 15.4 290 31 16 7.6 4.1
16000 -7.8 18.0 280 33 17 7.5 4.1 | -8.0 17.6 290 32 16 8.0 4.4
15500 -6.7 19.9 280 33 17 7.8 4.3 | -6.9 19.6 290 32 16 8.0 4.4
15000 -5.5 22.1 280 33 17 8.6 4.7 | -5.6 21.9 290 32 16 8.3 4.6
14500 -4.2 24.4 280 33 17 8.5 4.7 | -4.4 24.1 290 32 16 8.3 4.6
14000 -2.9 26.8 280 32 16 8.5 4.7 | -3.1 26.4 290 32 16 8.5 4.7
13500 -1.7 28.9 285 31 16 8.6 4.7 | -1.9 28.6 290 31 16 8.5 4.7
13000 -0.4 31.3 285 30 16 8.1 4.5 | -0.6 30.9 290 31 16 8.2 4.5
12500 0.8 33.4 285 29 15 8.1 4.4 | 0.6 33.1 290 30 16 8.2 4.5
12000 2.0 35.6 285 28 15 8.2 4.5 | 1.8 35.2 290 30 15 8.1 4.5
11500 3.2 37.8 285 27 14 8.3 4.5 | 3.0 37.4 290 29 15 8.1 4.5
11000 4.4 39.9 285 26 13 7.8 4.3 | 4.2 39.6 290 28 14 7.3 4.0
10500 5.6 42.1 285 25 13 7.5 4.1 | 5.2 41.4 290 26 14 7.4 4.1
10250 6.1 43.0 285 24 12 6.9 3.8 | 5.8 42.4 290 25 13 7.8 4.3
10000 6.6 43.9 285 23 12 6.4 3.5 | 6.4 43.5 290 24 13 6.9 3.8
9750 7.1 44.8 285 22 11 6.3 3.4 | 6.8 44.2 285 23 12 6.4 3.5
9500 7.6 45.7 285 21 11 6.3 3.5 | 7.3 45.1 285 22 11 6.7 3.7
9250 8.0 46.4 285 20 10 6.4 3.5 | 8.2 46.8 285 19 10 4.8 2.7
9000 8.8 47.8 280 17 9 4.7 2.6 | 8.5 47.3 280 18 9 4.7 2.6
8750 9.2 48.6 275 15 8 5.5 3.0 | 8.9 48.0 280 17 9 5.4 3.0
8500 9.6 49.3 270 14 7 3.2 1.8 | 9.2 48.6 275 15 8 2.7 1.5
8250 9.7 49.5 270 13 7 2.1 1.1 | 9.3 48.7 275 14 7 2.4 1.3
8000 9.9 49.8 265 12 6 3.5 1.9 | 9.7 49.5 270 12 6 4.9 2.7
7750 10.2 50.4 255 10 5 3.0 1.6 | 10.0 50.0 260 10 5 4.2 2.3
7500 10.4 50.7 250 9 5 1.8 1.0 | 10.3 50.5 255 9 5 5.1 2.8
7250 10.5 50.9 245 8 4 2.2 1.2 | 10.8 51.4 245 8 4 7.9 4.4
7000 10.7 51.3 235 7 4 3.6 2.0 | 11.4 52.5 245 8 4 9.4 5.2
6750 10.9 51.6 225 6 3 2.5 1.4 | 12.1 53.8 240 8 4 9.2 5.1
6500 11.0 51.8 215 6 3 1.0 0.5 | 12.8 55.0 235 7 4 9.9 5.4
6250 11.1 52.0 205 5 3 2.5 1.4 | 13.6 56.5 235 7 4 9.4 5.1
6000 11.4 52.5 200 5 2 5.1 2.8 | 14.3 57.7 235 7 3 12.7 7.0
5750 11.6 52.9 185 4 2 -4.1 -2.3 | 16.0 60.8 230 6 3 38.0 20.8
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/31/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.4
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +7.5 | CINH... -0.2 K Index... +4.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.6 -80.7 305 49 25 1.4 0.8 | -61.6 -78.9 315 44 23 2.0 1.1
45000 -60.3 -76.5 295 58 30 2.3 1.3 | -58.6 -73.5 320 54 28 1.5 0.8
40000 -56.8 -70.2 285 57 29 2.1 1.2 | -56.2 -69.2 320 60 31 1.4 0.8
38000 -54.4 -65.9 280 61 31 4.4 2.4 | -54.0 -65.2 330 61 32 4.1 2.3
36000 -51.7 -61.1 275 66 34 4.4 2.4 | -51.6 -60.9 350 67 34 4.1 2.3
34000 -48.5 -55.3 275 67 35 6.6 3.6 | -48.3 -54.9 355 73 38 7.3 4.0
32000 -44.6 -48.3 275 62 32 6.6 3.6 | -44.0 -47.2 360 76 39 7.2 4.0
30000 -40.3 -40.5 280 58 30 8.0 4.4 | -39.7 -39.5 355 72 37 7.2 3.9
29000 -37.9 -36.2 285 57 29 8.0 4.4 | -37.5 -35.5 350 66 34 7.2 3.9
28000 -35.5 -31.9 285 56 29 8.1 4.4 | -35.3 -31.5 340 61 31 7.2 3.9
27000 -33.1 -27.6 290 56 29 7.2 4.0 | -33.3 -27.9 330 57 29 5.9 3.2
26000 -31.0 -23.8 290 55 28 7.3 4.0 | -31.5 -24.7 330 53 27 6.1 3.3
25000 -28.8 -19.8 290 54 28 7.3 4.0 | -29.2 -20.6 330 48 25 6.1 3.3
24000 -26.1 -15.0 285 52 27 6.8 3.7 | -27.2 -17.0 330 45 23 8.2 4.5
23000 -24.1 -11.4 285 49 25 6.8 3.8 | -24.8 -12.6 325 43 22 8.1 4.5
22000 -22.1 -7.8 285 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -22.4 -8.3 325 42 21 8.2 4.5
21000 -19.8 -3.6 290 44 23 8.0 4.4 | -20.0 -4.0 320 40 21 7.8 4.3
20000 -17.4 0.7 290 42 22 8.0 4.4 | -17.7 0.1 315 40 20 7.8 4.3
19500 -16.2 2.8 290 41 21 8.0 4.4 | -16.5 2.3 315 39 20 7.8 4.3
19000 -15.0 5.0 295 40 20 8.0 4.4 | -15.3 4.5 315 39 20 7.7 4.2
18500 -13.8 7.2 295 39 20 8.0 4.4 | -14.3 6.3 310 38 20 6.9 3.8
18000 -12.6 9.3 295 38 19 8.0 4.4 | -13.2 8.2 310 37 19 6.9 3.8
17500 -11.5 11.3 295 37 19 7.0 3.9 | -12.1 10.2 310 36 19 7.4 4.1
17000 -10.4 13.3 295 36 19 6.9 3.8 | -11.0 12.2 310 36 18 7.6 4.1
16500 -9.4 15.1 295 35 18 7.0 3.8 | -9.9 14.2 305 35 18 7.6 4.2
16000 -8.4 16.9 295 34 18 7.0 3.9 | -8.7 16.3 305 35 18 7.8 4.3
15500 -7.3 18.9 290 33 17 7.0 3.9 | -7.6 18.3 305 34 18 7.8 4.3
15000 -6.2 20.8 290 32 17 7.8 4.3 | -6.4 20.5 305 33 17 7.9 4.3
14500 -5.1 22.8 290 31 16 7.7 4.2 | -5.2 22.6 305 32 17 7.8 4.3
14000 -3.9 25.0 290 31 16 8.6 4.7 | -4.0 24.8 305 31 16 8.5 4.6
13500 -2.6 27.3 285 30 15 8.6 4.7 | -2.8 27.0 305 31 16 8.5 4.7
13000 -1.3 29.7 285 29 15 9.0 4.9 | -1.5 29.3 305 30 15 8.9 4.9
12500 0.0 32.0 285 28 15 9.1 5.0 | -0.1 31.8 305 30 15 9.0 4.9
12000 1.4 34.5 285 27 14 9.1 5.0 | 1.2 34.2 305 29 15 9.0 5.0
11500 2.8 37.0 290 26 14 9.1 5.0 | 2.6 36.7 305 29 15 9.0 5.0
11000 4.1 39.4 290 25 13 9.3 5.1 | 3.9 39.0 305 28 15 8.9 4.9
10500 5.5 41.9 290 24 12 9.2 5.1 | 5.2 41.4 305 28 14 8.9 4.9
10250 6.2 43.2 290 23 12 8.9 4.9 | 5.9 42.6 305 28 14 8.9 4.9
10000 6.9 44.4 290 23 12 8.8 4.9 | 6.6 43.9 305 28 14 8.9 4.9
9750 7.5 45.5 290 22 11 8.8 4.8 | 7.2 45.0 305 28 14 9.0 4.9
9500 8.2 46.8 290 21 11 8.7 4.8 | 7.9 46.2 310 28 14 8.9 4.9
9250 8.8 47.8 290 20 10 7.6 4.2 | 9.1 48.4 310 28 14 7.9 4.3
9000 9.9 49.8 290 18 9 8.2 4.5 | 9.7 49.5 310 28 14 8.2 4.5
8750 10.5 50.9 290 17 9 7.9 4.3 | 10.3 50.5 310 28 14 8.0 4.4
8500 11.1 52.0 290 16 8 8.4 4.6 | 10.9 51.6 310 28 14 8.6 4.7
8250 11.8 53.2 290 15 8 8.9 4.9 | 11.6 52.9 315 27 14 8.6 4.7
8000 12.4 54.3 290 14 7 8.8 4.8 | 12.2 54.0 315 26 13 7.9 4.3
7750 13.1 55.6 295 12 6 8.8 4.8 | 12.8 55.0 315 25 13 8.4 4.6
7500 13.7 56.7 295 11 6 8.7 4.8 | 13.4 56.1 315 24 13 7.3 4.0
7250 14.4 57.9 295 11 6 9.2 5.1 | 13.9 57.0 320 24 13 7.3 4.0
7000 15.1 59.2 295 10 5 9.8 5.4 | 14.5 58.1 320 23 12 8.5 4.7
6750 15.8 60.4 295 9 5 9.7 5.3 | 15.1 59.2 320 21 11 8.1 4.5
6500 16.6 61.9 300 8 4 9.4 5.2 | 15.7 60.3 325 20 10 8.9 4.9
6250 17.3 63.1 300 8 4 11.4 6.3 | 16.3 61.3 325 18 9 5.8 3.2
6000 18.3 64.9 300 7 3 15.7 8.6 | 16.5 61.7 325 15 8 -0.9 -0.5
5750 19.3 66.7 305 6 3 7.9 4.3 | 16.6 61.9 325 12 6 11.5 6.3
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0723 MDT Friday October 31 2025
This forecast is for Friday, October 31, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 62.9 F/17.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 361 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11003 ft MSL (4543 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 64.0 F/18.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1430 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8828 ft MSL (2369 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 11/01..... Good
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:25:56 / 18:09:55 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 44 min 0 sec (644 min 0 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:47:56 MDT... 39.94 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/31/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 12933 ft MSL (6473 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20813 ft MSL (14353 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17585 ft MSL (11125 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +6.3
K index......................... -2.6
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.0 -83.2 295 58 30 1.3 0.7 84.6 184.3 39.1 M M
45000 -62.2 -80.0 290 70 36 0.3 0.2 65.0 149.0 29.5 M M
40000 -61.7 -79.1 300 75 38 0.5 0.3 43.2 109.8 17.0 M M
38000 -57.4 -71.3 300 69 35 7.9 4.4 39.6 103.3 15.1 M M
36000 -52.7 -62.9 300 62 32 7.9 4.4 38.2 100.8 14.5 M M
34000 -47.9 -54.2 300 55 28 8.1 4.4 36.8 98.2 13.8 M M
32000 -43.1 -45.6 300 50 25 8.1 4.4 35.4 95.8 13.1 M M
30000 -38.1 -36.6 300 46 24 8.5 4.7 34.3 93.8 12.6 M M
29000 -35.6 -32.1 300 46 24 8.5 4.7 33.8 92.9 12.4 M M
28000 -33.0 -27.4 300 46 23 8.5 4.7 33.5 92.2 12.2 M M
27000 -30.7 -23.3 300 45 23 6.9 3.8 32.8 91.0 11.8 M M
26000 -28.6 -19.5 295 43 22 6.9 3.8 31.6 89.0 11.1 M M
25000 -26.0 -14.8 295 41 21 7.0 3.8 30.4 86.7 10.2 M M
24000 -23.8 -10.8 295 39 20 7.5 4.1 29.5 85.1 9.6 M M
23000 -21.6 -6.9 295 38 19 7.5 4.1 28.7 83.6 9.0 M M
22000 -19.3 -2.7 295 36 19 7.6 4.1 27.9 82.3 8.5 M M
21000 -17.1 1.2 295 35 18 7.2 3.9 27.1 80.7 7.8 M M
20000 -15.0 5.0 295 34 17 7.2 3.9 26.1 79.1 7.1 M M
19500 -13.9 7.0 295 33 17 7.2 3.9 25.7 78.3 6.8 M M
19000 -12.8 9.0 295 32 17 6.8 3.7 25.3 77.6 6.5 M M
18500 -11.9 10.6 295 32 17 5.9 3.3 24.7 76.5 6.0 M M
18000 -11.0 12.2 295 32 16 5.9 3.3 24.1 75.3 5.5 M M
17500 -10.1 13.8 295 32 16 6.3 3.5 23.5 74.2 5.0 M M
17000 -9.2 15.4 290 32 17 6.4 3.5 22.9 73.2 4.4 M M
16500 -8.2 17.2 290 33 17 6.7 3.7 22.3 72.2 4.0 M M
16000 -7.2 19.0 290 33 17 7.3 4.0 21.9 71.4 3.6 M M
15500 -6.1 21.0 290 33 17 7.3 4.0 21.5 70.7 3.2 M M
15000 -5.0 23.0 290 33 17 7.9 4.3 21.1 70.0 2.9 M M
14500 -3.8 25.2 290 33 17 7.8 4.3 20.8 69.5 2.6 M M
14000 -2.7 27.1 295 32 17 7.8 4.3 20.5 68.9 2.3 M M
13500 -1.5 29.3 295 32 16 7.8 4.3 20.2 68.3 2.0 M M
13000 -0.4 31.3 295 31 16 7.7 4.2 19.9 67.8 1.7 M M
12500 0.8 33.4 295 30 15 7.6 4.2 19.5 67.2 1.4 M M
12000 1.9 35.4 295 29 15 7.1 3.9 19.2 66.5 1.0 M M
11500 2.9 37.2 295 27 14 6.8 3.7 18.7 65.7 0.6 M M
11000 4.4 39.9 295 25 13 6.2 3.4 18.0 64.4 -0.1 350 1.8
10500 5.3 41.5 290 22 12 6.4 3.5 17.5 63.4 -0.7 308 1.6
10250 5.7 42.3 290 22 11 5.8 3.2 17.2 62.9 -0.9 286 1.5
10000 6.1 43.0 285 20 10 5.1 2.8 16.8 62.3 -1.3 268 1.4
9750 6.5 43.7 280 19 10 5.2 2.9 16.5 61.7 -1.6 249 1.3
9500 6.9 44.4 280 17 9 5.4 2.9 16.1 61.0 -2.0 230 1.2
9250 7.3 45.1 275 17 9 4.4 2.4 15.8 60.4 -2.3 211 1.1
9000 7.5 45.5 275 15 8 3.1 1.7 15.3 59.5 -2.8 196 1.0
8750 7.8 46.0 270 14 7 3.3 1.8 14.8 58.6 -3.3 181 0.9
8500 8.0 46.4 270 12 6 2.6 1.4 14.3 57.7 -3.8 167 0.8
8250 8.1 46.6 265 11 5 1.3 0.7 13.7 56.6 -4.4 156 0.8
8000 8.2 46.8 265 9 5 0.9 0.5 13.0 55.4 -5.1 146 0.7
7750 8.3 46.9 265 7 4 0.7 0.4 12.3 54.2 -5.8 137 0.7
7500 8.3 46.9 260 5 3 0.8 0.5 11.7 53.0 -6.5 128 0.7
7250 8.3 46.9 260 3 2 -0.5 -0.3 11.0 51.7 -7.2 120 0.6
7000 8.4 47.1 255 1 1 4.5 2.5 10.3 50.5 -7.9 111 0.6
6750 8.6 47.5 000 0 0 -5.5 -3.0 9.8 49.6 -8.4 97 0.5
6500 4.6 40.3 110 1 1 -99.0 -54.3 5.1 41.1 -13.2 210 1.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/31/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -1.6 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +2.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.6 -80.7 295 57 29 0.5 0.3 | -62.0 -79.6 295 53 27 0.8 0.5
45000 -61.9 -79.4 290 69 35 0.4 0.2 | -60.8 -77.4 290 65 33 0.4 0.2
40000 -61.3 -78.3 290 71 36 0.5 0.3 | -60.1 -76.2 280 76 39 0.0 0.0
38000 -57.3 -71.1 290 67 35 7.6 4.2 | -56.7 -70.1 280 73 37 6.7 3.7
36000 -52.7 -62.9 290 63 33 7.6 4.2 | -52.7 -62.9 275 68 35 6.7 3.7
34000 -48.1 -54.6 290 58 30 8.0 4.4 | -48.4 -55.1 280 64 33 7.7 4.2
32000 -43.3 -45.9 290 53 27 8.0 4.4 | -43.8 -46.8 280 63 33 7.7 4.2
30000 -38.5 -37.3 290 49 25 8.3 4.6 | -39.4 -38.9 285 60 31 7.1 3.9
29000 -36.0 -32.8 295 49 25 8.3 4.6 | -37.3 -35.1 285 57 29 7.1 3.9
28000 -33.5 -28.3 295 48 25 8.3 4.6 | -35.2 -31.4 285 54 28 7.1 3.9
27000 -31.1 -24.0 295 48 24 7.6 4.2 | -33.0 -27.4 285 52 27 8.2 4.5
26000 -28.8 -19.8 290 46 24 7.6 4.2 | -30.5 -22.9 285 49 25 8.1 4.5
25000 -26.0 -14.8 290 44 23 7.6 4.2 | -27.5 -17.5 285 45 23 8.1 4.5
24000 -23.8 -10.8 290 42 22 7.2 3.9 | -25.2 -13.4 285 42 22 7.8 4.3
23000 -21.6 -6.9 290 41 21 7.2 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 285 41 21 7.8 4.3
22000 -19.5 -3.1 290 40 21 7.2 3.9 | -20.5 -4.9 285 39 20 7.8 4.3
21000 -17.4 0.7 290 39 20 6.9 3.8 | -18.3 -0.9 290 37 19 7.0 3.9
20000 -15.3 4.5 290 37 19 6.9 3.8 | -16.2 2.8 290 36 18 7.0 3.8
19500 -14.2 6.4 290 35 18 6.9 3.8 | -15.1 4.8 295 35 18 7.0 3.8
19000 -13.2 8.2 295 34 18 6.6 3.6 | -14.1 6.6 295 34 18 7.0 3.8
18500 -12.3 9.9 295 34 17 5.8 3.2 | -13.0 8.6 295 34 18 7.0 3.8
18000 -11.4 11.5 295 33 17 5.9 3.2 | -12.0 10.4 300 35 18 6.9 3.8
17500 -10.5 13.1 295 33 17 5.9 3.3 | -11.0 12.2 300 35 18 7.3 4.0
17000 -9.7 14.5 290 33 17 6.0 3.3 | -9.9 14.2 300 35 18 7.3 4.0
16500 -8.8 16.2 290 33 17 6.5 3.5 | -8.8 16.2 300 35 18 7.4 4.0
16000 -7.7 18.1 290 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -7.7 18.1 295 35 18 7.4 4.1
15500 -6.7 19.9 290 33 17 7.2 4.0 | -6.6 20.1 295 35 18 7.4 4.1
15000 -5.5 22.1 290 33 17 8.1 4.5 | -5.5 22.1 295 35 18 7.6 4.2
14500 -4.3 24.3 290 33 17 8.0 4.4 | -4.3 24.3 295 34 17 7.6 4.2
14000 -3.2 26.2 290 32 17 8.1 4.4 | -3.2 26.2 295 33 17 7.3 4.0
13500 -2.0 28.4 290 32 16 8.1 4.4 | -2.1 28.2 295 32 16 7.3 4.0
13000 -0.8 30.6 290 31 16 8.0 4.4 | -1.1 30.0 295 31 16 7.4 4.1
12500 0.4 32.7 290 30 16 8.0 4.4 | 0.0 32.0 290 29 15 7.5 4.1
12000 1.6 34.9 290 29 15 7.7 4.2 | 1.2 34.2 290 28 14 7.7 4.2
11500 2.7 36.9 295 28 15 7.6 4.2 | 2.3 36.1 290 26 14 7.8 4.3
11000 4.3 39.7 295 26 13 6.3 3.5 | 3.9 39.0 290 24 12 7.2 4.0
10500 5.2 41.4 290 25 13 7.1 3.9 | 5.0 41.0 290 22 12 7.6 4.2
10250 5.8 42.4 290 24 12 6.1 3.4 | 5.5 41.9 290 22 11 6.7 3.7
10000 6.1 43.0 290 22 11 4.5 2.5 | 6.0 42.8 290 21 11 5.4 3.0
9750 6.5 43.7 285 21 11 4.9 2.7 | 6.4 43.5 285 19 10 6.0 3.3
9500 6.8 44.2 285 19 10 4.8 2.6 | 6.8 44.2 285 18 9 5.0 2.8
9250 7.1 44.8 280 18 9 3.8 2.1 | 7.1 44.8 280 17 9 3.6 2.0
9000 7.4 45.3 280 17 9 2.8 1.5 | 7.4 45.3 280 16 8 4.0 2.2
8750 7.6 45.7 275 15 8 3.1 1.7 | 7.7 45.9 275 14 7 4.3 2.4
8500 7.8 46.0 275 13 7 2.2 1.2 | 8.0 46.4 275 13 6 4.3 2.3
8250 7.9 46.2 270 12 6 1.0 0.5 | 8.3 46.9 270 11 6 5.2 2.9
8000 8.0 46.4 270 11 6 1.4 0.8 | 8.8 47.8 265 10 5 7.7 4.2
7750 8.1 46.6 270 9 5 1.9 1.0 | 9.4 48.9 260 10 5 8.6 4.7
7500 8.2 46.8 265 7 4 1.1 0.6 | 10.1 50.2 260 9 5 8.9 4.9
7250 8.2 46.8 270 5 3 0.0 0.0 | 10.8 51.4 260 8 4 10.1 5.5
7000 8.3 46.9 280 3 1 2.7 1.5 | 11.5 52.7 255 8 4 8.5 4.7
6750 8.7 47.7 280 2 1 7.3 4.0 | 12.1 53.8 255 8 4 11.3 6.2
6500 9.0 48.2 315 1 0 -2.9 -1.6 | 13.9 57.0 255 7 3 42.7 23.4
10/31/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/31/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.9
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.8 | CINH... -0.2 K Index... +8.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.2 -80.0 305 46 23 1.4 0.8 | -61.3 -78.3 310 51 26 1.2 0.6
45000 -59.9 -75.8 300 55 28 2.2 1.2 | -59.5 -75.1 320 56 29 1.7 0.9
40000 -56.7 -70.1 285 56 29 2.2 1.2 | -57.0 -70.6 320 54 28 1.7 0.9
38000 -54.3 -65.7 280 60 31 4.0 2.2 | -54.5 -66.1 335 58 30 4.6 2.5
36000 -52.0 -61.6 275 65 33 4.0 2.2 | -51.7 -61.1 355 67 35 4.6 2.5
34000 -49.1 -56.4 275 66 34 6.0 3.3 | -48.4 -55.1 360 76 39 7.0 3.8
32000 -45.6 -50.1 275 61 31 6.0 3.3 | -44.2 -47.6 360 79 40 7.0 3.8
30000 -41.5 -42.7 275 56 29 8.2 4.5 | -39.9 -39.8 355 73 38 7.3 4.0
29000 -39.1 -38.4 280 53 27 8.2 4.5 | -37.7 -35.9 350 64 33 7.3 4.0
28000 -36.6 -33.9 285 50 26 8.2 4.5 | -35.5 -31.9 340 55 29 7.4 4.0
27000 -34.2 -29.6 290 48 25 8.0 4.4 | -33.4 -28.1 335 50 26 5.7 3.2
26000 -31.8 -25.2 290 48 25 8.0 4.4 | -31.7 -25.1 330 49 25 5.8 3.2
25000 -29.4 -20.9 290 48 25 8.0 4.4 | -30.0 -22.0 325 48 25 5.8 3.2
24000 -26.6 -15.9 290 48 25 6.6 3.6 | -27.6 -17.7 325 47 24 8.6 4.7
23000 -24.6 -12.3 290 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -25.2 -13.4 325 46 24 8.4 4.6
22000 -22.6 -8.7 290 47 24 6.8 3.7 | -22.7 -8.9 320 45 23 8.4 4.6
21000 -20.5 -4.9 290 46 24 7.8 4.3 | -20.3 -4.5 320 43 22 7.4 4.0
20000 -18.1 -0.6 290 44 23 7.8 4.3 | -18.1 -0.6 320 40 21 7.4 4.0
19500 -17.0 1.4 290 43 22 7.8 4.3 | -17.0 1.4 315 39 20 7.4 4.0
19000 -15.8 3.6 295 42 22 7.8 4.3 | -16.0 3.2 315 37 19 7.4 4.1
18500 -14.5 5.9 295 41 21 8.6 4.7 | -14.9 5.2 315 36 19 6.9 3.8
18000 -13.3 8.1 295 40 21 8.6 4.7 | -13.9 7.0 315 35 18 7.0 3.8
17500 -12.0 10.4 295 39 20 8.2 4.5 | -12.8 9.0 310 34 18 7.2 4.0
17000 -10.8 12.6 300 38 20 8.1 4.4 | -11.7 10.9 310 34 17 7.3 4.0
16500 -9.6 14.7 300 38 19 8.0 4.4 | -10.6 12.9 310 33 17 7.5 4.1
16000 -8.4 16.9 300 37 19 7.8 4.3 | -9.5 14.9 315 33 17 8.0 4.4
15500 -7.2 19.0 300 36 19 7.9 4.3 | -8.3 17.1 315 32 17 7.9 4.3
15000 -6.1 21.0 300 35 18 7.7 4.2 | -7.1 19.2 315 31 16 8.4 4.6
14500 -5.0 23.0 300 34 17 7.7 4.2 | -5.8 21.6 315 30 15 8.4 4.6
14000 -3.8 25.2 300 32 17 7.7 4.2 | -4.6 23.7 320 29 15 8.5 4.7
13500 -2.7 27.1 300 30 16 7.8 4.3 | -3.3 26.1 320 27 14 8.6 4.7
13000 -1.6 29.1 300 29 15 7.8 4.3 | -2.0 28.4 320 26 13 8.5 4.7
12500 -0.4 31.3 300 27 14 7.9 4.3 | -0.7 30.7 320 24 12 8.5 4.7
12000 0.8 33.4 300 25 13 8.0 4.4 | 0.5 32.9 320 23 12 8.5 4.7
11500 2.0 35.6 300 24 12 8.1 4.4 | 1.8 35.2 325 22 11 8.5 4.7
11000 3.3 37.9 295 23 12 8.6 4.7 | 3.1 37.6 320 21 11 8.5 4.7
10500 5.0 41.0 290 21 11 8.1 4.4 | 4.9 40.8 320 20 10 9.0 5.0
10250 5.7 42.3 290 21 11 8.5 4.7 | 5.6 42.1 320 20 10 9.5 5.2
10000 6.3 43.3 290 20 10 8.6 4.7 | 6.2 43.2 320 20 10 8.2 4.5
9750 6.9 44.4 290 20 10 8.4 4.6 | 6.9 44.4 320 20 10 8.5 4.7
9500 7.6 45.7 290 19 10 9.0 5.0 | 7.5 45.5 315 20 10 8.4 4.6
9250 8.3 46.9 285 19 10 9.6 5.3 | 8.1 46.6 315 20 10 8.5 4.6
9000 9.0 48.2 285 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 8.7 47.7 315 20 10 8.6 4.7
8750 9.7 49.5 285 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 9.4 48.9 315 20 10 8.5 4.7
8500 10.4 50.7 285 19 10 9.3 5.1 | 10.0 50.0 315 19 10 9.0 4.9
8250 11.1 52.0 285 18 9 9.5 5.2 | 10.7 51.3 310 19 10 10.0 5.5
8000 11.8 53.2 285 18 9 9.8 5.4 | 11.4 52.5 310 19 10 8.8 4.8
7750 12.5 54.5 285 18 9 9.9 5.4 | 12.0 53.6 310 18 9 7.7 4.2
7500 13.3 55.9 280 18 9 9.9 5.4 | 12.6 54.7 310 18 9 8.2 4.5
7250 14.0 57.2 280 17 9 10.2 5.6 | 13.2 55.8 310 17 9 8.2 4.5
7000 14.7 58.5 280 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 13.8 56.8 305 15 8 7.5 4.1
6750 15.4 59.7 280 16 8 10.4 5.7 | 14.1 57.4 305 14 7 -0.1 -0.1
6500 16.8 62.2 280 13 7 32.7 17.9 | 13.1 55.6 305 9 5 -33.0 -18.1
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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