An upper trough and frontal boundary will focus showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Plains through early Monday; A few severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall are expected. Meanwhile, low pressure off the Southeast Coast will bring inclement weather across the mid-Atlantic coast through Monday. This system is forecast to meander off the coast then track inland early this week. Read More >
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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0706 MDT Monday September 15 2025
This forecast is for Monday, September 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 70.7 F/21.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 756 ft/min (3.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 15287 ft MSL (8954 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13671 ft MSL (7339 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 09/16...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:47:24 / 19:10:41 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 23 min 18 sec (743 min 18 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:59:02 MDT... 57.72 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14773 ft MSL (8440 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20404 ft MSL (14071 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18586 ft MSL (12253 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.3
K index......................... +3.5
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.0 -85.0 280 32 17 2.6 1.4 79.5 175.1 31.2 M M
45000 -60.1 -76.2 270 41 21 5.0 2.8 64.5 148.2 23.9 M M
40000 -52.5 -62.5 275 40 20 5.4 3.0 54.2 129.5 18.6 M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 275 38 19 5.4 3.0 49.5 121.2 15.9 M M
36000 -45.6 -50.1 270 36 18 5.2 2.9 46.2 115.2 13.9 M M
34000 -41.5 -42.7 275 35 18 7.2 3.9 43.7 110.6 12.4 M M
32000 -37.1 -34.8 275 34 17 7.2 3.9 41.8 107.2 11.3 M M
30000 -32.1 -25.8 270 31 16 8.7 4.8 40.6 105.1 10.7 M M
29000 -29.5 -21.1 270 30 15 8.7 4.8 40.2 104.4 10.5 M M
28000 -26.9 -16.4 265 28 15 7.7 4.2 39.9 103.9 10.4 M M
27000 -25.0 -13.0 265 27 14 6.3 3.4 38.5 101.3 9.4 M M
26000 -23.1 -9.6 265 26 14 6.3 3.4 37.2 98.9 8.5 M M
25000 -21.2 -6.2 260 25 13 6.2 3.4 36.0 96.8 7.6 M M
24000 -19.2 -2.6 260 24 12 7.2 4.0 34.9 94.9 6.8 M M
23000 -17.0 1.4 255 21 11 7.2 4.0 34.0 93.2 6.1 M M
22000 -14.9 5.2 255 19 10 7.2 3.9 33.2 91.7 5.4 M M
21000 -12.5 9.5 250 17 9 8.3 4.6 32.5 90.5 4.9 M M
20000 -9.4 15.1 250 14 7 8.4 4.6 31.9 89.5 4.4 M M
19500 -8.2 17.2 245 12 6 8.5 4.7 31.7 89.1 4.2 M M
19000 -6.8 19.8 250 11 6 9.1 5.0 31.6 88.9 4.1 M M
18500 -5.5 22.1 250 9 5 9.1 5.0 31.5 88.6 4.0 M M
18000 -4.2 24.4 255 8 4 7.8 4.3 31.3 88.4 3.9 M M
17500 -3.1 26.4 255 7 3 7.2 4.0 30.9 87.6 3.5 M M
17000 -2.0 28.4 260 6 3 6.8 3.7 30.4 86.8 3.2 M M
16500 -1.3 29.7 270 6 3 3.2 1.7 29.6 85.2 2.4 M M
16000 -0.8 30.6 280 6 3 3.5 1.9 28.5 83.3 1.4 M M
15500 -0.4 31.3 290 7 4 2.5 1.4 27.4 81.4 0.4 M M
15000 -0.1 31.8 295 9 5 2.5 1.4 26.2 79.2 -0.8 741 3.8
14500 0.2 32.4 295 11 6 4.3 2.4 25.1 77.1 -1.9 716 3.6
14000 1.0 33.8 290 11 6 5.5 3.0 24.4 75.9 -2.6 677 3.4
13500 1.8 35.2 290 11 6 6.4 3.5 23.7 74.7 -3.3 638 3.2
13000 3.0 37.4 285 11 5 7.9 4.3 23.4 74.0 -3.6 590 3.0
12500 4.1 39.4 275 10 5 8.0 4.4 23.1 73.5 -3.9 540 2.7
12000 5.3 41.5 265 9 5 8.4 4.6 22.8 73.1 -4.2 488 2.5
11500 6.6 43.9 255 9 5 8.3 4.6 22.6 72.7 -4.4 436 2.2
11000 7.8 46.0 250 9 5 8.7 4.8 22.4 72.3 -4.7 384 1.9
10500 9.1 48.4 245 9 4 8.5 4.7 22.2 72.0 -4.8 330 1.7
10250 9.8 49.6 240 9 4 8.3 4.6 22.1 71.8 -5.0 304 1.5
10000 10.4 50.7 240 8 4 8.7 4.8 22.0 71.7 -5.1 278 1.4
9750 11.1 52.0 235 8 4 8.9 4.9 22.0 71.5 -5.2 250 1.3
9500 11.7 53.1 235 8 4 8.9 4.9 21.9 71.4 -5.2 223 1.1
9250 12.4 54.3 230 7 4 9.4 5.2 21.9 71.3 -5.3 196 1.0
9000 13.1 55.6 230 7 4 8.7 4.7 21.8 71.3 -5.4 167 0.9
8750 13.7 56.7 225 7 3 7.8 4.3 21.7 71.0 -5.5 142 0.7
8500 14.3 57.7 220 6 3 7.8 4.3 21.5 70.8 -5.7 117 0.6
8250 14.8 58.6 220 6 3 7.4 4.1 21.4 70.5 -5.9 93 0.5
8000 15.4 59.7 215 6 3 7.2 3.9 21.2 70.1 -6.1 69 0.4
7750 15.9 60.6 215 5 3 7.3 4.0 21.0 69.8 -6.3 46 0.2
7500 16.4 61.5 215 5 2 4.6 2.5 20.7 69.3 -6.5 24 0.1
7250 16.6 61.9 215 4 2 1.6 0.9 20.2 68.3 -7.1 11 0.1
7000 16.8 62.2 220 3 2 4.4 2.4 19.6 67.4 -7.7 M M
6750 16.9 62.4 225 3 1 -3.7 -2.0 19.1 66.4 -8.2 M M
6500 15.7 60.3 230 2 1 -30.2 -16.6 17.2 62.9 -10.2 15 0.1
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.1 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.8
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +6.9 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +10.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 285 25 13 1.9 1.0 | -64.8 -84.6 285 22 11 2.6 1.4
45000 -60.4 -76.7 280 42 22 4.7 2.6 | -59.9 -75.8 280 39 20 4.3 2.4
40000 -53.2 -63.8 275 43 22 5.8 3.2 | -53.2 -63.8 275 47 24 5.6 3.1
38000 -49.3 -56.7 275 40 21 5.7 3.1 | -49.9 -57.8 275 45 23 5.6 3.1
36000 -45.9 -50.6 270 38 20 5.5 3.0 | -46.5 -51.7 275 43 22 5.5 3.0
34000 -41.7 -43.1 270 34 18 7.3 4.0 | -42.1 -43.8 270 39 20 7.7 4.2
32000 -37.3 -35.1 270 30 16 7.2 4.0 | -37.5 -35.5 265 35 18 7.7 4.2
30000 -32.3 -26.1 270 28 15 8.6 4.7 | -32.4 -26.3 270 29 15 7.6 4.2
29000 -29.7 -21.5 270 27 14 8.6 4.7 | -30.1 -22.2 270 27 14 7.6 4.2
28000 -27.1 -16.8 270 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -27.8 -18.0 270 25 13 7.2 4.0
27000 -25.1 -13.2 265 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -25.7 -14.3 270 23 12 7.1 3.9
26000 -23.2 -9.8 265 24 12 6.5 3.6 | -23.6 -10.5 270 21 11 7.1 3.9
25000 -21.2 -6.2 265 23 12 6.4 3.5 | -21.5 -6.7 265 20 10 7.2 3.9
24000 -19.0 -2.2 265 21 11 7.4 4.1 | -19.1 -2.4 265 17 9 7.9 4.3
23000 -16.8 1.8 265 18 9 7.4 4.1 | -16.8 1.8 260 15 8 7.9 4.3
22000 -14.6 5.7 265 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -14.4 6.1 260 13 7 7.8 4.3
21000 -11.9 10.6 255 12 6 7.2 3.9 | -12.1 10.2 250 11 6 7.8 4.3
20000 -9.8 14.4 240 9 5 7.3 4.0 | -9.8 14.4 235 10 5 7.8 4.3
19500 -8.7 16.3 235 8 4 7.4 4.1 | -8.6 16.5 230 10 5 7.8 4.3
19000 -7.6 18.3 225 8 4 7.9 4.3 | -7.5 18.5 220 10 5 7.1 3.9
18500 -6.4 20.5 220 7 4 7.9 4.3 | -6.5 20.3 210 10 5 7.2 4.0
18000 -5.3 22.5 220 8 4 7.0 3.8 | -5.4 22.3 200 10 5 7.2 3.9
17500 -4.3 24.3 220 8 4 6.8 3.7 | -3.9 25.0 200 10 5 6.8 3.7
17000 -3.3 26.1 225 9 4 6.4 3.5 | -2.9 26.8 200 10 5 5.8 3.2
16500 -2.5 27.5 230 9 4 4.9 2.7 | -2.3 27.9 210 10 5 4.1 2.3
16000 -1.8 28.8 235 9 4 4.9 2.7 | -1.8 28.8 220 10 5 4.1 2.3
15500 -1.1 30.0 245 8 4 5.0 2.8 | -1.2 29.8 225 10 5 4.3 2.4
15000 -0.3 31.5 255 8 4 5.0 2.7 | -0.6 30.9 240 9 5 4.2 2.3
14500 0.5 32.9 270 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 0.1 32.2 250 9 5 6.5 3.5
14000 1.4 34.5 280 8 4 6.4 3.5 | 1.1 34.0 255 9 4 6.8 3.7
13500 2.3 36.1 285 8 4 7.4 4.0 | 2.1 35.8 260 8 4 7.8 4.3
13000 3.5 38.3 285 9 4 8.3 4.6 | 3.3 37.9 260 8 4 8.5 4.6
12500 4.7 40.5 280 9 4 8.3 4.6 | 4.5 40.1 260 8 4 8.7 4.8
12000 5.9 42.6 265 9 5 8.1 4.4 | 5.8 42.4 255 8 4 9.0 4.9
11500 7.1 44.8 250 9 5 8.1 4.5 | 7.1 44.8 250 8 4 9.3 5.1
11000 8.3 46.9 245 10 5 8.0 4.4 | 8.5 47.3 250 8 4 9.5 5.2
10500 9.4 48.9 235 10 5 7.7 4.2 | 9.9 49.8 245 7 4 9.0 4.9
10250 10.0 50.0 235 10 5 7.4 4.0 | 10.5 50.9 245 7 4 9.0 4.9
10000 10.5 50.9 235 10 5 8.4 4.6 | 11.3 52.3 245 7 4 10.1 5.5
9750 11.2 52.2 230 9 5 8.9 4.9 | 12.0 53.6 240 7 4 10.2 5.6
9500 11.8 53.2 230 9 5 8.5 4.7 | 12.8 55.0 240 7 4 10.2 5.6
9250 12.4 54.3 230 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 13.5 56.3 240 7 3 10.4 5.7
9000 13.0 55.4 230 9 5 7.9 4.3 | 14.3 57.7 235 7 3 9.6 5.3
8750 13.6 56.5 225 9 4 7.7 4.2 | 15.0 59.0 235 6 3 8.8 4.8
8500 14.2 57.6 225 8 4 7.0 3.9 | 15.6 60.1 230 6 3 9.7 5.3
8250 14.7 58.5 225 8 4 6.3 3.5 | 16.4 61.5 230 6 3 10.3 5.6
8000 15.2 59.4 220 7 4 6.3 3.5 | 17.1 62.8 225 6 3 9.9 5.4
7750 15.7 60.3 220 6 3 5.8 3.2 | 17.9 64.2 225 6 3 9.7 5.3
7500 16.1 61.0 220 6 3 4.8 2.6 | 18.6 65.5 220 5 3 10.1 5.5
7250 16.4 61.5 215 5 2 4.4 2.4 | 19.4 66.9 220 5 3 10.7 5.9
7000 16.7 62.1 215 4 2 3.9 2.1 | 20.1 68.2 215 5 3 9.6 5.3
6750 17.0 62.6 210 3 1 5.6 3.1 | 20.9 69.6 215 5 3 12.0 6.6
6500 17.6 63.7 200 2 1 11.8 6.5 | 22.0 71.6 210 5 2 19.9 10.9
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.9 LI... +2.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.7
CINH... -0.7 K Index... +20.8 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +17.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 275 23 12 2.6 1.4 | -64.3 -83.7 275 26 13 3.2 1.8
45000 -60.0 -76.0 275 38 19 3.9 2.1 | -59.2 -74.6 275 40 21 3.3 1.8
40000 -53.7 -64.7 275 50 26 5.8 3.2 | -53.9 -65.0 280 50 26 5.9 3.2
38000 -50.2 -58.4 275 47 24 5.8 3.2 | -50.3 -58.5 280 45 23 5.9 3.2
36000 -46.7 -52.1 275 43 22 5.7 3.1 | -46.8 -52.2 280 40 21 5.8 3.2
34000 -42.3 -44.1 275 40 20 7.8 4.3 | -42.3 -44.1 275 37 19 7.9 4.3
32000 -37.6 -35.7 270 36 19 7.8 4.3 | -37.6 -35.7 275 34 17 7.9 4.3
30000 -32.3 -26.1 270 30 16 7.8 4.3 | -32.3 -26.1 275 29 15 7.8 4.3
29000 -30.0 -22.0 270 27 14 7.8 4.3 | -30.0 -22.0 275 27 14 7.8 4.3
28000 -27.7 -17.9 270 25 13 7.4 4.1 | -27.6 -17.7 275 25 13 7.7 4.2
27000 -25.5 -13.9 270 22 11 7.3 4.0 | -25.3 -13.5 275 22 11 7.7 4.2
26000 -23.3 -9.9 270 20 10 7.3 4.0 | -23.0 -9.4 275 20 10 7.7 4.2
25000 -21.1 -6.0 270 17 9 7.3 4.0 | -20.7 -5.3 275 17 9 7.6 4.2
24000 -18.9 -2.0 270 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -18.6 -1.5 275 16 8 7.0 3.8
23000 -16.7 1.9 270 15 8 7.4 4.1 | -16.5 2.3 280 14 7 7.0 3.8
22000 -14.5 5.9 270 14 7 7.7 4.2 | -14.4 6.1 280 13 7 7.3 4.0
21000 -12.0 10.4 270 14 7 8.5 4.7 | -12.0 10.4 280 13 6 8.1 4.4
20000 -9.4 15.1 265 13 7 8.5 4.7 | -9.6 14.7 280 13 7 8.1 4.4
19500 -8.2 17.2 265 12 6 8.7 4.8 | -8.4 16.9 280 13 7 8.2 4.5
19000 -7.0 19.4 265 12 6 6.3 3.5 | -7.2 19.0 280 13 7 7.4 4.1
18500 -6.1 21.0 260 12 6 6.3 3.4 | -6.1 21.0 280 13 7 7.4 4.0
18000 -5.1 22.8 255 12 6 5.0 2.7 | -5.0 23.0 280 13 7 6.1 3.4
17500 -4.7 23.5 245 11 6 2.3 1.3 | -4.2 24.4 275 11 5 3.7 2.0
17000 -4.3 24.3 235 10 5 3.6 2.0 | -3.7 25.3 265 9 5 3.9 2.1
16500 -3.8 25.2 235 9 5 4.4 2.4 | -3.2 26.2 255 7 3 4.0 2.2
16000 -3.3 26.1 235 7 4 4.5 2.5 | -2.8 27.0 235 4 2 4.3 2.4
15500 -2.3 27.9 240 7 3 9.8 5.4 | -1.9 28.6 215 4 2 9.3 5.1
15000 -0.9 30.4 240 6 3 9.3 5.1 | -0.6 30.9 205 4 2 8.8 4.8
14500 0.5 32.9 240 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 0.7 33.3 200 4 2 9.5 5.2
14000 1.9 35.4 240 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 2.2 36.0 205 4 2 9.5 5.2
13500 3.3 37.9 240 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 3.6 38.5 210 4 2 9.7 5.3
13000 4.7 40.5 240 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 5.0 41.0 220 5 2 9.7 5.3
12500 6.2 43.2 240 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 6.5 43.7 225 5 3 9.7 5.3
12000 7.6 45.7 240 6 3 9.6 5.2 | 7.9 46.2 230 5 3 9.6 5.3
11500 9.0 48.2 240 6 3 9.9 5.4 | 9.4 48.9 235 6 3 9.1 5.0
11000 10.5 50.9 240 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 10.8 51.4 240 6 3 10.0 5.5
10500 12.0 53.6 240 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 12.2 54.0 240 7 4 9.0 4.9
10250 12.7 54.9 240 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 12.9 55.2 245 7 4 8.7 4.8
10000 13.4 56.1 240 6 3 9.8 5.4 | 13.6 56.5 245 7 4 10.0 5.5
9750 14.1 57.4 240 6 3 9.6 5.3 | 14.3 57.7 245 8 4 9.8 5.4
9500 14.8 58.6 240 6 3 10.1 5.5 | 15.1 59.2 245 8 4 10.2 5.6
9250 15.6 60.1 240 7 3 10.7 5.9 | 15.9 60.6 250 8 4 10.9 6.0
9000 16.4 61.5 240 7 3 10.0 5.5 | 16.7 62.1 250 9 4 9.8 5.4
8750 17.1 62.8 240 7 3 9.3 5.1 | 17.3 63.1 250 9 5 8.9 4.9
8500 17.8 64.0 240 7 4 9.8 5.4 | 18.0 64.4 250 9 5 9.3 5.1
8250 18.6 65.5 240 7 4 10.0 5.5 | 18.7 65.7 255 9 5 9.4 5.2
8000 19.3 66.7 240 7 4 10.1 5.5 | 19.4 66.9 255 10 5 9.4 5.2
7750 20.1 68.2 240 7 4 10.4 5.7 | 20.1 68.2 255 10 5 9.5 5.2
7500 20.8 69.4 240 7 4 10.3 5.7 | 20.9 69.6 255 10 5 9.9 5.4
7250 21.6 70.9 240 7 4 10.4 5.7 | 21.6 70.9 255 10 5 10.2 5.6
7000 22.4 72.3 240 7 4 9.7 5.3 | 22.3 72.1 255 10 5 10.1 5.5
6750 23.1 73.6 240 7 4 11.7 6.4 | 23.1 73.6 255 10 5 9.8 5.4
6500 24.2 75.6 240 7 4 19.7 10.8 | 23.8 74.8 260 10 5 9.4 5.1
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0714 MDT Monday September 15 2025
This forecast is for Monday, September 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 73.9 F/23.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 810 ft/min (4.1 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 15234 ft MSL (9554 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 83.0 F/28.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12970 ft MSL (7290 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 09/16...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:49:52 / 19:13:12 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 23 min 20 sec (743 min 20 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:01:32 MDT... 57.66 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 14677 ft MSL (8997 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20180 ft MSL (14500 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18328 ft MSL (12649 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.1
K index......................... +6.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.3 -85.5 275 32 16 3.1 1.7 81.5 178.7 31.2 M M
45000 -59.9 -75.8 270 40 21 5.0 2.7 67.3 153.1 24.4 M M
40000 -52.0 -61.6 275 42 22 5.3 2.9 56.1 133.1 18.7 M M
38000 -48.8 -55.8 275 40 21 5.3 2.9 51.9 125.5 16.3 M M
36000 -45.7 -50.3 275 39 20 5.1 2.8 48.5 119.2 14.2 M M
34000 -41.5 -42.7 275 37 19 7.2 3.9 45.9 114.5 12.7 M M
32000 -37.2 -35.0 275 36 18 7.2 4.5 43.9 111.1 11.6 M M
30000 -32.3 -26.1 275 33 17 8.6 4.7 42.7 108.8 10.9 M M
29000 -29.7 -21.5 270 32 16 8.6 4.7 42.2 108.0 10.7 M M
28000 -27.1 -16.8 270 30 15 8.0 4.4 41.9 107.5 10.6 M M
27000 -25.2 -13.4 265 28 15 6.1 3.3 40.5 104.9 9.6 M M
26000 -23.4 -10.1 260 27 14 6.1 3.3 39.1 102.4 8.6 M M
25000 -21.6 -6.9 255 25 13 6.0 3.3 37.8 100.1 7.7 M M
24000 -18.9 -2.0 255 23 12 7.7 4.2 36.6 98.0 6.8 M M
23000 -16.6 2.1 250 20 10 7.7 4.2 35.9 96.6 6.3 M M
22000 -14.2 6.4 250 18 9 7.7 4.2 35.3 95.5 5.8 M M
21000 -12.0 10.4 245 15 8 7.8 4.3 34.5 94.0 5.1 M M
20000 -9.7 14.5 235 13 7 7.9 4.3 33.8 92.8 4.6 M M
19500 -8.5 16.7 230 12 6 8.0 4.4 33.5 92.3 4.3 M M
19000 -7.3 18.9 230 11 6 8.2 4.5 33.3 91.9 4.1 M M
18500 -6.1 21.0 230 10 5 8.2 4.5 33.0 91.4 3.9 M M
18000 -4.9 23.2 230 8 4 7.7 4.2 32.7 90.9 3.7 M M
17500 -3.8 25.2 235 7 3 7.2 4.0 32.3 90.1 3.3 M M
17000 -2.7 27.1 235 5 3 7.4 4.1 31.9 89.3 2.9 M M
16500 -1.9 28.6 250 5 3 4.1 2.3 31.2 88.1 2.3 M M
16000 -1.2 29.8 270 5 3 4.5 2.4 30.3 86.5 1.5 M M
15500 -0.7 30.7 285 6 3 3.2 1.8 29.3 84.8 0.6 M M
15000 -0.3 31.5 295 8 4 3.0 1.6 28.2 82.7 -0.5 800 4.1
14500 0.1 32.2 305 10 5 4.4 2.4 27.1 80.7 -1.5 773 3.9
14000 1.0 33.8 300 10 5 6.7 3.7 26.5 79.7 -2.1 731 3.7
13500 2.0 35.6 300 10 5 7.0 3.8 26.0 78.8 -2.6 688 3.5
13000 3.1 37.6 285 10 5 8.3 4.5 25.7 78.2 -3.0 639 3.2
12500 4.3 39.7 265 9 5 8.2 4.5 25.4 77.8 -3.2 588 3.0
12000 5.6 42.1 250 9 5 8.4 4.6 25.2 77.4 -3.5 536 2.7
11500 6.8 44.2 235 10 5 8.4 4.6 25.0 77.0 -3.7 484 2.5
11000 8.0 46.4 225 10 5 7.8 4.3 24.7 76.5 -4.0 434 2.2
10500 9.1 48.4 215 10 5 8.1 4.5 24.4 76.0 -4.3 385 2.0
10250 9.7 49.5 210 10 5 8.2 4.5 24.3 75.8 -4.5 359 1.8
10000 10.3 50.5 210 10 5 8.0 4.4 24.2 75.5 -4.6 334 1.7
9750 10.9 51.6 210 9 5 7.9 4.3 24.0 75.3 -4.8 309 1.6
9500 11.5 52.7 205 9 5 8.6 4.7 23.9 75.0 -4.9 284 1.4
9250 12.2 54.0 205 9 4 8.8 4.8 23.8 74.9 -5.0 257 1.3
9000 13.4 56.1 200 7 4 8.6 4.7 23.6 74.5 -5.2 205 1.0
8750 14.0 57.2 200 6 3 7.4 4.1 23.5 74.3 -5.4 179 0.9
8500 14.5 58.1 200 5 3 6.9 3.8 23.3 73.9 -5.6 156 0.8
8250 15.1 59.2 195 5 2 8.2 4.5 23.1 73.6 -5.8 131 0.7
8000 15.8 60.4 195 4 2 9.0 4.9 23.0 73.5 -5.9 105 0.5
7750 16.4 61.5 190 3 2 7.5 4.1 22.9 73.3 -6.0 78 0.4
7500 16.9 62.4 190 3 1 5.4 2.9 22.7 72.8 -6.2 57 0.3
7250 17.2 63.0 185 2 1 5.1 2.8 22.3 72.2 -6.6 38 0.2
7000 17.6 63.7 165 1 1 5.2 2.9 22.0 71.6 -7.0 19 0.1
6750 18.0 64.4 130 1 0 4.8 2.7 21.6 70.9 -7.3 0 0.0
6500 18.3 64.9 090 1 1 4.0 2.2 21.2 70.2 -7.8 M M
6250 18.6 65.5 060 1 1 5.3 2.9 20.8 69.5 -8.2 M M
6000 18.8 65.8 060 2 1 -4.8 -2.7 20.3 68.5 -8.8 M M
5750 16.3 61.3 055 2 1 -76.7 -42.1 17.1 62.7 -12.0 22 0.1
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.2
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +11.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +12.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.2 -83.6 285 27 14 1.9 1.0 | -64.3 -83.7 285 21 11 2.0 1.1
45000 -60.2 -76.4 275 41 21 4.7 2.6 | -60.3 -76.5 280 39 20 4.3 2.4
40000 -52.6 -62.7 275 44 22 5.6 3.1 | -53.3 -63.9 275 48 24 5.8 3.2
38000 -49.2 -56.6 275 42 22 5.6 3.1 | -49.8 -57.6 275 45 23 5.8 3.2
36000 -45.9 -50.6 270 41 21 5.5 3.0 | -46.4 -51.5 275 43 22 5.6 3.1
34000 -41.7 -43.1 270 37 19 7.2 4.0 | -41.8 -43.2 270 40 20 7.9 4.3
32000 -37.3 -35.1 270 33 17 7.2 4.0 | -37.1 -34.8 265 36 18 7.9 4.3
30000 -32.5 -26.5 275 31 16 8.3 4.6 | -32.6 -26.7 270 31 16 7.5 4.1
29000 -30.0 -22.0 275 30 16 8.3 4.6 | -30.3 -22.5 270 28 14 7.5 4.1
28000 -27.5 -17.5 275 29 15 7.8 4.3 | -28.1 -18.6 275 25 13 7.4 4.1
27000 -25.4 -13.7 270 27 14 6.8 3.8 | -25.9 -14.6 275 23 12 7.2 3.9
26000 -23.3 -9.9 270 25 13 6.8 3.8 | -23.2 -9.8 275 21 11 7.2 3.9
25000 -20.8 -5.4 265 23 12 7.0 3.8 | -21.1 -6.0 275 19 10 7.3 4.0
24000 -18.6 -1.5 265 21 11 7.4 4.0 | -18.8 -1.8 270 17 9 7.4 4.1
23000 -16.4 2.5 265 18 9 7.4 4.0 | -16.6 2.1 270 16 8 7.4 4.1
22000 -14.2 6.4 265 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -14.4 6.1 265 15 8 7.9 4.4
21000 -11.9 10.6 255 13 7 7.5 4.1 | -11.9 10.6 265 13 7 8.4 4.6
20000 -9.7 14.5 245 11 5 7.5 4.1 | -9.3 15.3 265 11 6 8.4 4.6
19500 -8.6 16.5 235 10 5 7.5 4.1 | -8.1 17.4 260 10 5 8.3 4.6
19000 -7.6 18.3 225 9 5 6.8 3.7 | -7.0 19.4 255 9 5 6.3 3.5
18500 -6.6 20.1 215 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -6.0 21.2 245 9 5 6.5 3.5
18000 -5.6 21.9 205 8 4 6.3 3.4 | -5.1 22.8 240 8 4 5.5 3.0
17500 -4.7 23.5 205 8 4 5.9 3.2 | -4.4 24.1 225 9 4 5.0 2.7
17000 -3.9 25.0 200 9 4 5.8 3.2 | -3.7 25.3 215 9 5 5.0 2.7
16500 -3.1 26.4 205 8 4 4.8 2.6 | -3.1 26.4 210 9 5 4.1 2.3
16000 -2.5 27.5 215 8 4 4.8 2.7 | -2.5 27.5 210 9 5 4.2 2.3
15500 -1.7 28.9 225 7 4 5.1 2.8 | -1.9 28.6 210 9 4 5.4 2.9
15000 -1.0 30.2 245 6 3 5.2 2.9 | -1.1 30.0 210 7 4 5.5 3.0
14500 -0.2 31.6 270 6 3 6.3 3.5 | -0.3 31.5 220 6 3 6.7 3.7
14000 0.8 33.4 280 6 3 7.2 4.0 | 0.8 33.4 225 5 3 7.5 4.1
13500 1.9 35.4 290 7 3 7.7 4.2 | 1.9 35.4 235 4 2 8.0 4.4
13000 3.1 37.6 285 7 3 8.7 4.8 | 3.2 37.8 240 4 2 8.9 4.9
12500 4.4 39.9 280 7 4 8.7 4.8 | 4.5 40.1 240 4 2 8.9 4.9
12000 5.7 42.3 265 7 4 8.9 4.9 | 5.8 42.4 240 5 2 9.1 5.0
11500 7.0 44.6 250 8 4 8.8 4.8 | 7.2 45.0 240 5 3 9.0 4.9
11000 8.2 46.8 240 9 4 7.9 4.3 | 8.4 47.1 235 6 3 8.4 4.6
10500 9.4 48.9 235 9 4 8.1 4.5 | 9.7 49.5 235 6 3 9.0 5.0
10250 9.9 49.8 230 9 5 7.9 4.3 | 10.4 50.7 230 6 3 8.7 4.8
10000 10.5 50.9 225 9 4 7.4 4.1 | 10.9 51.6 230 6 3 7.5 4.1
9750 11.0 51.8 225 8 4 7.9 4.3 | 11.5 52.7 225 6 3 8.4 4.6
9500 11.5 52.7 220 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 12.0 53.6 225 6 3 6.1 3.3
9250 12.0 53.6 215 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 13.0 55.4 220 5 3 9.2 5.0
9000 13.1 55.6 210 7 4 7.7 4.2 | 13.7 56.7 220 5 3 8.7 4.8
8750 13.7 56.7 210 7 3 6.9 3.8 | 14.3 57.7 220 5 2 8.0 4.4
8500 14.2 57.6 205 6 3 6.6 3.6 | 14.9 58.8 215 5 2 8.4 4.6
8250 14.7 58.5 205 6 3 7.6 4.2 | 15.6 60.1 220 4 2 10.1 5.5
8000 15.4 59.7 205 5 2 8.2 4.5 | 16.4 61.5 220 4 2 10.3 5.6
7750 16.0 60.8 200 4 2 6.7 3.7 | 17.1 62.8 220 4 2 9.5 5.2
7500 16.4 61.5 200 3 2 5.3 2.9 | 17.8 64.0 220 4 2 9.0 4.9
7250 16.8 62.2 195 2 1 6.5 3.6 | 18.5 65.3 220 4 2 10.6 5.8
7000 17.4 63.3 185 1 1 6.8 3.8 | 19.3 66.7 225 4 2 11.1 6.1
6750 17.8 64.0 160 1 0 5.7 3.1 | 20.1 68.2 225 4 2 10.2 5.6
6500 18.2 64.8 000 0 0 5.1 2.8 | 20.9 69.6 225 4 2 10.1 5.5
6250 18.6 65.5 040 1 0 6.4 3.5 | 21.6 70.9 225 4 2 9.4 5.1
6000 19.2 66.6 035 1 1 11.0 6.0 | 22.4 72.3 225 4 2 12.6 6.9
5750 20.3 68.5 025 1 1 20.6 11.3 | 24.2 75.6 230 4 2 43.9 24.1
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.6
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +8.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +14.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.4 -83.9 280 23 12 3.0 1.7 | -64.3 -83.7 275 25 13 3.3 1.8
45000 -59.6 -75.3 275 40 21 3.6 2.0 | -59.3 -74.7 280 40 20 3.4 1.8
40000 -53.6 -64.5 275 52 27 5.7 3.1 | -53.6 -64.5 280 50 26 5.7 3.1
38000 -50.1 -58.2 275 48 25 5.8 3.2 | -50.1 -58.2 280 46 23 5.8 3.2
36000 -46.6 -51.9 275 44 23 5.6 3.1 | -46.7 -52.1 275 41 21 5.6 3.1
34000 -42.1 -43.8 275 40 21 7.8 4.3 | -42.2 -44.0 275 38 19 7.8 4.3
32000 -37.4 -35.3 270 37 19 7.8 4.3 | -37.5 -35.5 275 35 18 7.8 4.3
30000 -32.8 -27.0 270 31 16 7.7 4.2 | -32.8 -27.0 275 30 16 7.9 4.4
29000 -30.5 -22.9 270 28 15 7.7 4.2 | -30.4 -22.7 275 28 14 7.9 4.4
28000 -28.2 -18.8 270 26 13 7.6 4.2 | -28.0 -18.4 275 25 13 7.8 4.3
27000 -25.9 -14.6 270 23 12 7.4 4.1 | -25.7 -14.3 275 23 12 7.5 4.1
26000 -23.7 -10.7 270 21 11 7.4 4.1 | -22.9 -9.2 275 20 10 7.5 4.1
25000 -20.9 -5.6 270 18 9 7.3 4.0 | -20.7 -5.3 275 18 9 7.3 4.0
24000 -18.8 -1.8 275 16 8 7.2 3.9 | -18.6 -1.5 275 16 8 6.9 3.8
23000 -16.6 2.1 275 15 8 7.2 3.9 | -16.5 2.3 280 14 7 6.9 3.8
22000 -14.5 5.9 280 14 7 7.9 4.3 | -14.4 6.1 285 12 6 7.6 4.2
21000 -11.9 10.6 280 13 7 8.6 4.7 | -12.0 10.4 285 11 6 8.1 4.5
20000 -9.4 15.1 275 12 6 8.6 4.7 | -9.6 14.7 285 11 6 8.2 4.5
19500 -8.1 17.4 275 12 6 8.5 4.7 | -8.3 17.1 285 10 5 8.2 4.5
19000 -6.9 19.6 275 11 6 7.9 4.3 | -7.1 19.2 285 10 5 8.4 4.6
18500 -5.7 21.7 270 11 6 7.9 4.3 | -5.8 21.6 285 11 5 8.4 4.6
18000 -4.5 23.9 270 11 5 6.5 3.6 | -4.6 23.7 280 11 6 6.7 3.7
17500 -3.7 25.3 265 10 5 5.7 3.1 | -3.8 25.2 285 12 6 5.8 3.2
17000 -2.8 27.0 260 10 5 5.5 3.0 | -2.9 26.8 285 13 7 5.7 3.1
16500 -2.2 28.0 255 9 5 4.0 2.2 | -2.3 27.9 285 14 7 4.1 2.3
16000 -1.6 29.1 250 9 5 4.3 2.4 | -1.7 28.9 285 15 8 4.5 2.5
15500 -1.0 30.2 240 9 4 4.4 2.4 | -1.0 30.2 285 15 8 6.4 3.5
15000 -0.4 31.3 235 8 4 4.6 2.5 | -0.1 31.8 285 14 7 6.7 3.7
14500 0.1 32.2 230 7 4 6.2 3.4 | 0.8 33.4 280 13 7 7.5 4.1
14000 1.2 34.2 230 7 3 7.4 4.1 | 2.0 35.6 280 11 6 8.2 4.5
13500 2.2 36.0 230 6 3 8.0 4.4 | 3.2 37.8 275 9 5 8.4 4.6
13000 3.5 38.3 230 6 3 9.2 5.0 | 4.5 40.1 270 8 4 9.0 4.9
12500 4.9 40.8 230 5 3 9.2 5.1 | 5.9 42.6 270 7 4 9.1 5.0
12000 6.3 43.3 230 5 3 9.6 5.3 | 7.3 45.1 265 6 3 9.4 5.2
11500 7.8 46.0 230 5 3 9.6 5.3 | 8.7 47.7 265 5 3 9.4 5.2
11000 9.2 48.6 230 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 10.1 50.2 265 5 2 9.6 5.3
10500 10.7 51.3 230 5 2 9.3 5.1 | 11.5 52.7 260 4 2 9.9 5.4
10250 11.3 52.3 230 5 3 9.4 5.1 | 12.3 54.1 260 4 2 9.8 5.4
10000 12.1 53.8 230 5 3 9.7 5.3 | 13.0 55.4 260 4 2 9.6 5.2
9750 12.8 55.0 230 5 2 9.6 5.3 | 13.7 56.7 260 4 2 9.6 5.3
9500 13.5 56.3 230 5 2 9.6 5.3 | 14.4 57.9 255 3 2 9.5 5.2
9250 14.2 57.6 235 5 3 9.7 5.3 | 15.9 60.6 255 3 2 9.7 5.3
9000 15.7 60.3 235 5 3 10.0 5.5 | 16.6 61.9 250 3 2 9.9 5.4
8750 16.4 61.5 235 5 3 8.8 4.8 | 17.3 63.1 250 3 2 9.0 5.0
8500 17.0 62.6 235 5 2 9.2 5.1 | 18.0 64.4 250 3 1 9.2 5.1
8250 17.8 64.0 235 5 2 10.9 6.0 | 18.7 65.7 245 3 1 10.3 5.6
8000 18.6 65.5 235 5 3 11.0 6.0 | 19.5 67.1 245 2 1 10.3 5.7
7750 19.4 66.9 235 5 3 9.9 5.4 | 20.3 68.5 240 2 1 9.6 5.2
7500 20.1 68.2 235 5 2 8.9 4.9 | 20.9 69.6 240 2 1 8.9 4.9
7250 20.8 69.4 235 5 2 10.4 5.7 | 21.6 70.9 235 2 1 9.8 5.4
7000 21.6 70.9 240 5 2 11.1 6.1 | 22.4 72.3 230 2 1 10.3 5.6
6750 22.5 72.5 240 5 2 10.2 5.6 | 23.2 73.8 225 2 1 10.0 5.5
6500 23.2 73.8 240 5 2 9.9 5.4 | 23.9 75.0 225 2 1 10.0 5.5
6250 23.9 75.0 240 5 2 9.5 5.2 | 24.6 76.3 220 2 1 9.5 5.2
6000 24.7 76.5 240 5 2 13.2 7.2 | 25.3 77.5 215 2 1 10.5 5.7
5750 26.5 79.7 240 5 2 44.1 24.2 | 26.5 79.7 205 1 1 24.1 13.2
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0709 MDT Monday September 15 2025
This forecast is for Monday, September 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 69.6 F/20.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 720 ft/min (3.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 15095 ft MSL (8639 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 79.0 F/26.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13461 ft MSL (7005 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 09/16...... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:47:34 / 19:11:17 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 23 min 43 sec (743 min 43 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:59:25 MDT... 57.09 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15154 ft MSL (8698 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20113 ft MSL (13657 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18460 ft MSL (12003 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +1.4
K index......................... +2.6
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.8 -84.6 275 31 16 3.2 1.7 79.6 175.3 31.6 M M
45000 -59.4 -74.9 270 39 20 4.8 2.6 65.5 149.9 24.9 M M
40000 -51.9 -61.4 275 42 22 5.2 2.8 54.0 129.1 18.9 M M
38000 -48.8 -55.8 275 43 22 5.2 2.8 49.7 121.4 16.4 M M
36000 -45.7 -50.3 270 45 23 5.1 2.8 46.1 115.0 14.3 M M
34000 -41.7 -43.1 270 43 22 6.9 3.8 43.3 110.0 12.6 M M
32000 -37.6 -35.7 270 39 20 7.0 3.8 41.2 106.1 11.3 M M
30000 -32.9 -27.2 270 37 19 8.0 4.4 39.5 103.2 10.3 M M
29000 -30.5 -22.9 270 36 18 8.0 4.4 38.9 102.0 9.9 M M
28000 -28.1 -18.6 265 34 18 7.8 4.3 38.4 101.1 9.7 M M
27000 -26.2 -15.2 265 32 17 6.2 3.4 37.1 98.7 8.7 M M
26000 -24.3 -11.7 260 30 16 6.2 3.4 35.7 96.3 7.7 M M
25000 -22.0 -7.6 260 28 14 6.4 3.5 34.2 93.6 6.6 M M
24000 -19.8 -3.6 260 25 13 7.4 4.0 33.2 91.8 5.8 M M
23000 -17.7 0.1 260 22 11 7.4 4.1 32.4 90.2 5.2 M M
22000 -15.5 4.1 260 20 10 8.0 4.4 31.6 88.9 4.5 M M
21000 -12.8 9.0 260 18 9 9.2 5.1 31.3 88.4 4.3 M M
20000 -10.0 14.0 265 16 8 9.2 5.1 31.2 88.1 4.2 M M
19500 -8.7 16.3 270 15 8 9.3 5.1 31.1 88.0 4.2 M M
19000 -7.3 18.9 270 14 7 8.9 4.9 31.0 87.8 4.1 M M
18500 -6.0 21.2 265 13 7 8.9 4.9 30.9 87.6 4.0 M M
18000 -4.6 23.7 265 12 6 8.3 4.5 30.8 87.4 3.9 M M
17500 -3.5 25.7 265 11 6 7.3 4.0 30.3 86.6 3.6 M M
17000 -2.4 27.7 265 10 5 7.7 4.2 29.9 85.9 3.2 M M
16500 -1.6 29.1 270 9 5 3.6 2.0 29.3 84.7 2.6 M M
16000 -1.0 30.2 280 9 5 4.0 2.2 28.3 82.9 1.8 M M
15500 -0.4 31.3 290 9 5 3.5 1.9 27.3 81.2 0.9 M M
15000 0.1 32.2 295 10 5 3.4 1.9 26.3 79.3 -0.1 718 3.6
14500 0.5 32.9 300 11 5 3.7 2.0 25.2 77.4 -1.1 690 3.5
14000 1.1 34.0 300 11 6 4.6 2.5 24.3 75.8 -2.0 657 3.3
13500 1.7 35.1 295 12 6 4.8 2.6 23.5 74.3 -2.8 624 3.2
13000 2.6 36.7 290 12 6 7.4 4.1 23.0 73.3 -3.4 583 3.0
12500 3.7 38.7 285 12 6 7.2 3.9 22.6 72.6 -3.9 537 2.7
12000 4.8 40.6 280 11 6 8.6 4.7 22.3 72.1 -4.2 488 2.5
11500 6.1 43.0 275 11 6 8.4 4.6 22.1 71.7 -4.4 436 2.2
11000 7.9 46.2 265 10 5 8.4 4.6 21.7 71.1 -4.8 359 1.8
10500 9.1 48.4 260 10 5 8.3 4.5 21.5 70.7 -5.0 307 1.6
10250 9.7 49.5 260 10 5 8.1 4.5 21.4 70.5 -5.2 281 1.4
10000 10.3 50.5 260 9 5 8.1 4.5 21.3 70.3 -5.3 255 1.3
9750 11.0 51.8 255 9 4 8.3 4.5 21.1 70.1 -5.5 230 1.2
9500 11.6 52.9 255 8 4 7.5 4.1 21.0 69.8 -5.6 205 1.0
9250 12.1 53.8 255 7 4 7.1 3.9 20.8 69.5 -5.8 181 0.9
9000 12.6 54.7 255 6 3 7.6 4.2 20.6 69.2 -6.0 157 0.8
8750 13.2 55.8 260 5 2 7.4 4.1 20.5 68.8 -6.2 133 0.7
8500 13.7 56.7 265 4 2 6.4 3.5 20.3 68.5 -6.4 110 0.6
8250 14.2 57.6 285 2 1 5.4 2.9 20.0 67.9 -6.7 89 0.5
8000 14.5 58.1 325 1 1 4.7 2.6 19.6 67.3 -7.1 71 0.4
7750 14.9 58.8 005 2 1 3.9 2.1 19.2 66.6 -7.5 54 0.3
7500 15.1 59.2 020 2 1 3.4 1.9 18.7 65.7 -8.0 39 0.2
7250 15.3 59.5 025 3 1 2.6 1.4 18.2 64.8 -8.5 25 0.1
7000 15.5 59.9 035 3 2 4.0 2.2 17.7 63.9 -9.1 11 0.1
6750 15.6 60.1 045 4 2 -6.4 -3.5 17.1 62.7 -9.7 1 0.0
6500 12.9 55.2 050 3 2 -83.1 -45.6 13.6 56.5 -13.2 76 0.4
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
09/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9
CINH... -0.3 K Index... +1.5 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.8 -82.8 285 25 13 1.5 0.8 | -63.9 -83.0 275 19 10 2.2 1.2
45000 -60.2 -76.4 275 39 20 4.9 2.7 | -59.9 -75.8 275 39 20 4.1 2.3
40000 -52.4 -62.3 275 44 23 5.4 2.9 | -53.2 -63.8 275 48 25 5.6 3.1
38000 -49.2 -56.6 275 45 23 5.4 2.9 | -49.8 -57.6 275 46 24 5.7 3.1
36000 -46.0 -50.8 270 45 23 5.3 2.9 | -46.4 -51.5 275 44 23 5.6 3.1
34000 -41.9 -43.4 270 42 21 7.1 3.9 | -42.1 -43.8 270 41 21 7.5 4.1
32000 -37.7 -35.9 270 37 19 7.1 3.9 | -37.6 -35.7 270 38 20 7.5 4.1
30000 -33.0 -27.4 270 34 18 8.0 4.4 | -33.2 -27.8 270 32 17 7.3 4.0
29000 -30.6 -23.1 270 32 17 8.0 4.4 | -31.0 -23.8 270 29 15 7.3 4.0
28000 -28.2 -18.8 270 31 16 7.8 4.3 | -28.8 -19.8 270 26 13 7.3 4.0
27000 -26.1 -15.0 270 29 15 6.8 3.7 | -26.1 -15.0 270 24 12 7.3 4.0
26000 -23.5 -10.3 265 26 14 6.8 3.7 | -23.9 -11.0 270 22 11 7.3 4.0
25000 -21.5 -6.7 260 24 12 6.8 3.7 | -21.8 -7.2 270 20 11 7.3 4.0
24000 -19.5 -3.1 260 21 11 6.8 3.7 | -19.5 -3.1 265 18 9 7.5 4.1
23000 -17.4 0.7 255 17 9 6.9 3.8 | -17.3 0.9 265 15 8 7.5 4.1
22000 -15.4 4.3 255 14 7 7.7 4.2 | -15.0 5.0 260 12 6 7.7 4.2
21000 -12.8 9.0 250 12 6 8.8 4.9 | -12.7 9.1 245 10 5 8.0 4.4
20000 -10.2 13.6 240 11 6 8.9 4.9 | -10.3 13.5 225 8 4 8.1 4.4
19500 -8.9 16.0 240 10 5 8.9 4.9 | -9.1 15.6 215 8 4 8.1 4.5
19000 -7.6 18.3 235 10 5 8.8 4.8 | -7.9 17.8 210 9 4 7.9 4.3
18500 -6.3 20.7 235 9 5 8.7 4.8 | -6.8 19.8 210 9 5 7.9 4.3
18000 -5.0 23.0 230 9 5 7.7 4.2 | -5.6 21.9 210 9 5 7.2 4.0
17500 -3.9 25.0 235 9 4 6.9 3.8 | -4.6 23.7 215 10 5 6.7 3.7
17000 -2.9 26.8 235 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -3.6 25.5 225 10 5 6.6 3.6
16500 -2.1 28.2 240 8 4 3.6 2.0 | -2.7 27.1 230 10 5 5.9 3.2
16000 -1.5 29.3 250 7 4 4.0 2.2 | -1.8 28.8 240 10 5 6.0 3.3
15500 -1.0 30.2 265 6 3 3.2 1.8 | -0.9 30.4 245 10 5 5.8 3.2
15000 -0.6 30.9 275 7 3 3.1 1.7 | -0.1 31.8 250 9 5 5.8 3.2
14500 -0.2 31.6 285 7 4 4.1 2.2 | 0.8 33.4 260 9 5 5.6 3.1
14000 0.6 33.1 290 8 4 5.4 3.0 | 1.5 34.7 265 9 4 5.4 3.0
13500 1.3 34.3 290 9 5 6.0 3.3 | 2.3 36.1 275 9 4 5.8 3.2
13000 2.4 36.3 280 10 5 8.5 4.7 | 3.2 37.8 275 9 5 7.1 3.9
12500 3.6 38.5 275 11 6 8.4 4.6 | 4.2 39.6 280 9 5 7.2 4.0
12000 4.9 40.8 270 12 6 8.7 4.8 | 5.4 41.7 280 9 5 9.0 4.9
11500 6.2 43.2 260 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 7.4 45.3 275 9 5 9.1 5.0
11000 8.2 46.8 250 12 6 8.5 4.6 | 8.7 47.7 270 9 5 8.9 4.9
10500 9.4 48.9 245 11 6 8.1 4.4 | 10.0 50.0 270 8 4 7.8 4.3
10250 10.0 50.0 245 10 5 8.1 4.5 | 10.5 50.9 265 8 4 8.3 4.6
10000 10.6 51.1 245 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 11.2 52.2 265 8 4 8.9 4.9
9750 11.2 52.2 250 8 4 8.2 4.5 | 11.8 53.2 260 7 4 8.7 4.8
9500 11.8 53.2 250 7 4 7.7 4.2 | 12.5 54.5 260 7 4 8.5 4.6
9250 12.3 54.1 250 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 13.1 55.6 260 6 3 9.0 4.9
9000 12.8 55.0 255 5 2 6.7 3.7 | 13.8 56.8 260 6 3 9.6 5.3
8750 13.3 55.9 255 4 2 6.4 3.5 | 14.5 58.1 260 6 3 9.5 5.2
8500 13.8 56.8 270 2 1 5.2 2.8 | 15.2 59.4 260 6 3 9.5 5.2
8250 14.1 57.4 300 2 1 5.0 2.7 | 15.9 60.6 260 5 3 9.6 5.3
8000 14.5 58.1 340 2 1 6.3 3.4 | 16.7 62.1 260 5 3 9.8 5.4
7750 15.0 59.0 005 2 1 5.5 3.0 | 17.4 63.3 260 5 3 10.1 5.6
7500 15.3 59.5 015 2 1 4.0 2.2 | 18.2 64.8 260 5 3 10.6 5.8
7250 15.6 60.1 015 3 1 3.8 2.1 | 18.9 66.0 260 5 2 10.4 5.7
7000 15.9 60.6 015 3 1 6.6 3.6 | 19.7 67.5 260 5 2 10.3 5.7
6750 16.7 62.1 015 3 1 13.6 7.4 | 20.6 69.1 260 4 2 15.0 8.2
6500 17.7 63.9 010 3 1 10.7 5.9 | 22.3 72.1 265 4 2 36.9 20.3
09/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 09/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.4
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +9.2 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +14.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.9 -83.0 275 23 12 2.8 1.6 | -63.8 -82.8 275 25 13 3.1 1.7
45000 -59.4 -74.9 275 40 20 3.3 1.8 | -59.1 -74.4 275 40 21 3.2 1.7
40000 -53.9 -65.0 275 49 25 5.7 3.1 | -53.8 -64.8 280 50 26 5.4 2.9
38000 -50.5 -58.9 275 46 24 5.7 3.1 | -50.6 -59.1 275 46 24 5.4 3.0
36000 -47.0 -52.6 275 43 22 5.6 3.1 | -47.3 -53.1 275 42 22 5.3 2.9
34000 -42.5 -44.5 275 40 20 8.0 4.4 | -42.8 -45.0 275 38 20 8.0 4.4
32000 -37.7 -35.9 270 37 19 8.0 4.4 | -38.0 -36.4 275 34 18 8.0 4.4
30000 -33.2 -27.8 270 32 16 7.2 4.0 | -33.3 -27.9 275 29 15 7.9 4.3
29000 -31.1 -24.0 270 29 15 7.2 4.0 | -30.9 -23.6 275 26 14 7.9 4.3
28000 -28.9 -20.0 270 26 13 7.3 4.0 | -28.5 -19.3 280 24 12 7.8 4.3
27000 -26.7 -16.1 270 23 12 7.5 4.1 | -25.7 -14.3 275 21 11 7.5 4.1
26000 -23.8 -10.8 270 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -23.5 -10.3 275 19 10 7.5 4.1
25000 -21.6 -6.9 270 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -21.3 -6.3 275 17 9 7.4 4.1
24000 -19.4 -2.9 270 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -19.1 -2.4 275 16 8 7.3 4.0
23000 -17.1 1.2 270 14 7 7.4 4.1 | -16.9 1.6 275 14 7 7.3 4.0
22000 -14.9 5.2 270 12 6 7.8 4.3 | -14.7 5.5 280 12 6 7.7 4.3
21000 -12.5 9.5 260 10 5 8.3 4.5 | -12.2 10.0 275 11 6 8.3 4.6
20000 -10.0 14.0 250 8 4 8.3 4.5 | -9.7 14.5 275 10 5 8.3 4.6
19500 -8.7 16.3 245 8 4 8.3 4.6 | -8.5 16.7 270 10 5 8.4 4.6
19000 -7.6 18.3 240 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -7.4 18.7 270 9 5 6.2 3.4
18500 -6.5 20.3 235 8 4 7.3 4.0 | -6.5 20.3 270 8 4 6.4 3.5
18000 -5.4 22.3 230 8 4 6.6 3.6 | -5.5 22.1 265 7 4 5.5 3.0
17500 -4.5 23.9 235 8 4 6.1 3.4 | -4.9 23.2 275 6 3 5.0 2.7
17000 -3.7 25.3 240 8 4 6.1 3.4 | -4.2 24.4 285 5 3 5.1 2.8
16500 -2.8 27.0 250 8 4 5.4 3.0 | -3.3 26.1 300 5 3 7.1 3.9
16000 -2.1 28.2 260 8 4 5.5 3.0 | -2.4 27.7 305 6 3 7.0 3.8
15500 -1.3 29.7 265 8 4 6.4 3.5 | -1.4 29.5 310 6 3 8.0 4.4
15000 -0.3 31.5 270 8 4 6.6 3.6 | -0.1 31.8 300 6 3 8.2 4.5
14500 0.6 33.1 275 8 4 6.9 3.8 | 1.1 34.0 295 6 3 8.5 4.6
14000 1.6 34.9 270 8 4 7.1 3.9 | 2.4 36.3 280 6 3 8.7 4.8
13500 2.6 36.7 270 8 4 7.6 4.2 | 3.6 38.5 265 6 3 8.6 4.7
13000 3.9 39.0 265 8 4 9.4 5.1 | 4.9 40.8 255 7 4 8.3 4.5
12500 5.3 41.5 260 8 4 9.3 5.1 | 6.1 43.0 245 8 4 8.3 4.6
12000 6.7 44.1 255 8 4 9.6 5.2 | 7.4 45.3 240 9 4 9.0 5.0
11500 8.1 46.6 255 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 8.7 47.7 240 9 5 8.7 4.8
11000 10.3 50.5 250 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 10.8 51.4 235 10 5 9.6 5.3
10500 11.7 53.1 250 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 12.3 54.1 240 10 5 9.7 5.3
10250 12.5 54.5 250 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 13.0 55.4 240 10 5 9.7 5.3
10000 13.2 55.8 250 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 13.7 56.7 240 10 5 9.7 5.3
9750 13.9 57.0 245 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 14.4 57.9 235 11 5 9.7 5.3
9500 14.6 58.3 245 8 4 9.7 5.3 | 15.2 59.4 235 11 6 9.6 5.3
9250 15.3 59.5 245 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 15.9 60.6 240 11 6 9.5 5.2
9000 16.1 61.0 245 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 16.6 61.9 240 11 6 9.6 5.3
8750 16.8 62.2 245 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 17.3 63.1 240 11 6 9.6 5.3
8500 17.6 63.7 245 9 4 9.8 5.4 | 18.0 64.4 240 11 6 9.9 5.4
8250 18.3 64.9 245 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 18.8 65.8 240 11 6 9.9 5.4
8000 19.0 66.2 245 9 5 10.0 5.5 | 19.5 67.1 240 11 6 9.6 5.3
7750 19.8 67.6 240 9 5 10.1 5.6 | 20.2 68.4 240 11 6 9.6 5.3
7500 20.5 68.9 240 9 5 10.2 5.6 | 21.0 69.8 240 11 6 9.8 5.4
7250 21.3 70.3 240 9 4 10.6 5.8 | 21.7 71.1 240 11 6 9.9 5.5
7000 22.1 71.8 240 9 4 9.2 5.1 | 22.4 72.3 240 11 6 8.9 4.9
6750 22.8 73.0 240 8 4 13.7 7.5 | 23.0 73.4 240 10 5 8.8 4.8
6500 25.1 77.2 240 8 4 58.0 31.8 | 24.0 75.2 240 9 5 21.2 11.7
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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