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| Abnormally Dry Conditions |
| At times, below normal precipitation will lead to a lack of ground water and worsening drought conditions in Arkansas. Check out the latest conditions below. |
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Monitoring Drought in Arkansas |
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| Rapid Onset Drought Unfolding in October |
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| Drought Status |
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A moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) was ongoing in southern, central, and western Arkansas in mid-October. Next Page Update: November 1, 2024
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| Drought Conditions (Percent Area) |
| Category |
Coverage |
| None |
26.91% |
| D0-D4 |
73.09% |
| D1-D4 |
51.67% |
| D2-D4 |
22.98% |
| D3-D4 |
4.48% |
| D4 |
0% |
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| In the picture: There were moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) conditions in southern, central, and western Arkansas on 10/15/2024. |
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| In the picture: Drought conditions as of 10/15/2024. |
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Across the country, the worst drought conditions (at least D3) were in the Rockies, Plains, mid-South (including Arkansas), Ohio Valley, and the central Appalachians.
Here at home in October (through the 14th), other than a few sprinkles in places, it was bone dry across the region. Cold fronts were preceded by well above average temperatures, and passed through with nothing more than a wind shift (and maybe a few clouds) followed by very low afternoon humidity levels (less than 20 percent at times). By the 18th, burn bans were posted in 55 (of 75) counties, and many of these counties had a high wildfire danger (according to the Arkansas Forestry Division). Agricultural disasters were declared in Nevada, Perry, and Yell Counties.
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| Precipitation in October, 2024 (Through the 14th) |
| Site |
Amount |
Normal |
+/- |
% of Normal |
| Fayetteville (NW AR) |
0.00 |
1.92 |
-1.92 |
0% |
| Harrison (NC AR) |
TRACE |
1.57 |
-1.57 |
0% |
| Jonesboro (NE AR) |
TRACE |
1.60 |
-1.60 |
0% |
| Fort Smith (WC AR) |
0.00 |
1.81 |
-1.81 |
0% |
| Little Rock (C AR) |
0.00 |
1.75 |
-1.75 |
0% |
| West Memphis (EC AR) |
TRACE |
1.67 |
-1.67 |
0% |
| Texarkana (SW AR) |
0.00 |
1.91 |
-1.91 |
0% |
| El Dorado (SC AR) |
TRACE |
1.95 |
-1.95 |
0% |
| Pine Bluff (SE AR) |
0.00 |
1.93 |
-1.93 |
0% |
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| In the picture: Hurricane Francine was closing in on the Louisiana Gulf Coast on 09/11/2024. The system briefly became a category two storm (maximum sustained wind around 100 mph) before making landfall during the late afternoon. The remnants of Francine eventually unleashed areas of heavy rain in parts of Arkansas (in the southwest and east) as well as wind gusts up to 50 mph (in the east). |
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In September, the remnants of Hurricane Francine dumped significant rain (locally more than six inches) in southwest and eastern sections of the state. Another two to three inches of rain came down in the northeast on the 27th (moisture was tied to the remnants of Hurricane Helene). For the month, several sites in the northeast tallied over eight inches of precipitation, including Jonesboro (Craighead County) and West Memphis (Crittenden County).
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| In the picture: Precipitation across Arkansas in September, 2024. |
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Meanwhile, much of the south and west missed out on the deluge, with less than an inch-and-a-half of liquid at El Dorado (Union County), Fayetteville (Washington County), Fort Smith (Sebastian County), and Harrison (Boone County).
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| Precipitation in September, 2024 |
| Site |
Amount |
Normal |
+/- |
% of Normal |
| Fayetteville (NW AR) |
0.16 |
4.26 |
-4.10 |
4% |
| Harrison (NC AR) |
0.35 |
4.06 |
-3.71 |
9% |
| Jonesboro (NE AR) |
9.84 |
3.30 |
+6.54 |
298% |
| Fort Smith (WC AR) |
0.96 |
4.04 |
-3.08 |
24% |
| Little Rock (C AR) |
1.67 |
3.01 |
-1.34 |
55% |
| West Memphis (EC AR) |
8.89 |
3.05 |
+5.84 |
291% |
| Texarkana (SW AR) |
2.94 |
3.60 |
-0.66 |
82% |
| El Dorado (SC AR) |
1.15 |
3.23 |
-2.08 |
36% |
| Pine Bluff (SE AR) |
3.12 |
3.09 |
+0.03 |
101% |
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| In the picture: Across the country, some of the largest soil moisture declines (in millimeters) were from the Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley, upper Midwest, and western Great Lakes (including much of central and western Arkansas) from September 1st through October 16th, 2024. |
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This dry scenario was nothing new. From the beginning of September through the two weeks of October, three to more than six inch rainfall deficits were common in portions of southern, central, and western Arkansas.
In 2024 (through October 14th), wet to very wet conditions were found across the central and southern counties, and it was not-so-wet in the northwest. Precipitation was more than six inches above average at El Dorado (Union County) and Little Rock (Pulaski County), and over six inches subpar at Fayetteville (Washington County) and Harrison (Boone County).
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| Precipitation in 2024 (Through October 14th) |
| Site |
Amount |
Normal |
+/- |
% of Normal |
| Fayetteville (NW AR) |
31.05 |
37.65 |
-6.60 |
82% |
| Harrison (NC AR) |
27.99 |
35.36 |
-7.37 |
79% |
| Jonesboro (NE AR) |
39.83 |
37.45 |
+2.38 |
106% |
| Fort Smith (WC AR) |
39.24 |
37.40 |
+1.84 |
105% |
| Little Rock (C AR) |
46.85 |
37.90 |
+8.95 |
124% |
| West Memphis (EC AR) |
35.75 |
38.60 |
-2.85 |
93% |
| Texarkana (SW AR) |
42.61 |
37.68 |
+4.93 |
113% |
| El Dorado (SC AR) |
47.20 |
40.05 |
+7.15 |
118% |
| Pine Bluff (SE AR) |
37.69 |
38.89 |
-1.20 |
97% |
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| In the pictures: Drought outlook through January, 2025. |
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Looking ahead, La Niña (cooler than normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean) is projected to emerge in the fall and continue through the winter. As this happens, dryness and a worsening drought (especially in southern/western Arkansas) are likely. In fact, the absence of showers combined with several factors including powdery soil, stressed vegetation, and low streamflow/ground water may lead to rapid onset drought. While there is an outside chance of additional relief from the tropics, it must be mentioned that tropical systems in/near the state beyond mid-October are very rare. We will monitor the situation closely.
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| Streamflow and Soil Moisture |
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