National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Regional Outbreaks of Severe Weather Through Early Next Week; Early Season Heat Wave across the South

Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >

The entire forecast area is in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon/evening into the nighttime hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. That said, there is some uncertainty on areal coverage of storms, which could end up being only isolated or widely scattered.
Large hail in excess of quarter size is possible with any supercells that develop, but again, they may only be isolated or widely scattered in coverage as there is some uncertainty in this. In the hatched area, hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter is possible within 25 miles of a given point.
Strong wind gusts from 60 to 70 mph are possible with any isolated/widely scattered supercells that develop. Although, within the black hatched area there is a potential to see gusts in excess of 74 mph.
There is a low tornado threat today across central South Dakota, basically along the Missouri River valley eastward into the James River valley. The brown coloring shows a 5 to 9 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. The time frame for this is during the evening hours, generally prior to midnight.