Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane; Heavy Rainfall Possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Upper Midwest, South Texas

Hurricane Erin may bring isolated flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, and possible tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may bring areas of flooding this weekend over the Upper Midwest. A tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and mainly urban flash flooding to far southern Texas. Read More >

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Convective Interest

This is a highly experimental index which attempts to show areas where surface based convection is favorable or may initiate within the next hour. The index uses a combination of several fields, (CAPE, CIN, low level lapse rates, moisture convergence, satellite, and most unstable LI) to develop a number between -100 and 100. Negative values are indicative of an environment not supportive of surface based convection. The higher the value, the more favorable the environment is for surface based convection. Values greater than 70 are suggestive that convective initiation will likely occur within the next hour in that region. This index works best in regimes of airmass (or pulse) convection or on days where the cap is the primary inhibiting factor for convection.

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Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane; Heavy Rainfall Possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Upper Midwest, South Texas

Convective Parameters - Convective Interest