851
FXAK68 PAFC 010123
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Broad upper level troughing spanning across the eastern Interior
down into the Gulf has allowed for broken cloud cover to linger
this afternoon along much of the Gulf coast and Copper River
Basin. A few light snow showers around the Cordova area continue
to taper off through this afternoon as the trough and vertically
stacked low located near Yakutat nudges east towards the Alaskan
Panhandle and Canada. To the west, an amplified ridge centered
over the eastern Bering continues to push east into the Mainland,
keeping conditions dry and clear elsewhere.
Persistent northerly flow and cold air advection will continue to
keep gusty winds through coastal and inland mountain gaps this
evening through tomorrow, with winds likely peaking this evening
into the overnight hours. Strong winds through Thompson Pass are
expected to continue to reduce visibility to one half mile or less
through this afternoon, with visibilities improving this evening
as any remaining snowfall ends and transportable snow scours out.
Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska
Valley from this evening until early Thursday morning for wind
gusts reaching as high as 40 to 50 mph.
Then, dry and cold conditions will settle back in across the
region. Gap winds will begin to gradually diminish Thursday into
Friday with the loss of the upper-level forcing from the trough.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually trend downward into the
weekend. We are monitoring the potential for wind chills 40 below
zero or lower developing across the Copper Basin and mountain
passes of the Alaska Range as early as tonight. By Friday, ambient
temperatures in the single digits above and below zero are
expected across the Cook Inlet region (Anchorage, western Kenai,
Mat-Su) and even much of the north Gulf coast (including Seward,
Whittier, Valdez, and Cordova). Meanwhile, the Copper Basin will
likely be in the range of 20 to 30 below zero. Any bit of wind
would drop the apparent temperatures lower. This cold looks to
stick around through Monday next week.
JH/Rux
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...
High pressure over Southwest Alaska on Wednesday resulted in
predominantly clear skies and mild winds east of the Kuskokwim
Mountains. Low stratus and fog was more common to the west of the
mountains with clouds blanketing the region from the YK Delta to
the Kuskokwim River down into the Kuskokwim Bay. On satellite, the
main synoptic feature continues to be a large occluded low
located over the western Bering. The southern portion of the
front, currently over the Central Aleutians, will slowly shift
eastward through tomorrow, eventually falling apart as it crosses
Unalaska. To the north, the front is expected to move into the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast tomorrow afternoon. Light to moderate snow
will fall across Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Coast. Anywhere
from 1 to 3 inches of total snow is forecast through tomorrow
night along with increasing winds. Gusts as high as 30 mph
combined with blowing snow will reduce visibility down to one half
mile or less as times. A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and
blowing snow is in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Nunivak Island from noon tomorrow to midnight tomorrow night. The
higher snow amounts will occur from Nelson Island to Kipnuk with
snow amounts decreasing further inland. Bethel should be on the
lower end of snow totals with only around an inch forecast. After
Thursday`s snow, conditions across Southwest Alaska will improve
with high pressure ridging back over the region on Friday and
Saturday.
The forecast for the Bering and Aleutians remains more active
with several troughs expected to traverse the region into the
weekend. The first trough will clip the Western Aleutians on
Thursday, the Pribilof Islands Thursday night, and then the Alaska
Peninsula Friday morning as it slides back into the North Pacific
by the weekend. Brief light snow and an uptick in winds will
accompany the trough`s passage, but should be relatively short-
lived for each area. A second trough lifts over the Western and
Central Aleutians early Friday. Models have the front becoming
more elongated over the Aleutians, with light rain to spread from
Adak to Unalaska. The trough gets picked up by a broad Bering
front on Saturday, which should extend from near Saint Matthew
Island down to the Eastern Aleutians. As with Thursday`s
progressive or faster moving trough, this system will slide
eastward at a steady pace, reaching the Kuskokwim Coast by
Saturday afternoon. Models then have yet another, stronger system
moving into the Western Bering and Aleutian Chain late Saturday.
It is this third system that has potential to bring stronger winds
and heavier snow across the Bering and into Southwest Alaska
Sunday into early next week. Stay tuned.
-BL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...
A 956 mb North Pacific low enters the western Bering Sunday,
brings strong winds, areas of 40 foot waves, and heavy
precipitation for the Aleutian Islands with storm-force winds
currently expected from Attu to Atka, and Gales as far east as
Akutan. Improving model consensus indicates that the strong front
associated with this system will dislodge the high pressure ridge
off to the north and east and lift temperatures up to the normal
range for this time of year. This will set up a strong pressure
gradient and increase chances for a return of gap winds.
A strong triple point low may also develop along the front in the
northern Gulf on Monday into Tuesday, which would bring
precip/snow to much of the Southcentral Coast. A clearer picture
will emerge as consensus improves, but this will likely bring the
next round of significant snow accumulation across Southcentral
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC... VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Northerly winds will persist into Thursday with the strongest
period likely being from this evening through around 3 AM tonight
(12Z Jan 1) when winds could gust to around 25 kt.
&&
$$
213
FXAK69 PAFG 010043
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will continue across much of Northern
Alaska through the weekend. Gusty winds and light snow will
continue to lead to low visibility across the Eastern North
Slope/Arctic Coast and Central Brooks Range through Thursday. Snow
and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence
Island tonight into Thursday, leading to areas of low visibility
at times. Generally clear and calm conditions across the Interior
will continue to promote very cold conditions with areas of ice
fog through the weekend. Coldest areas are expected to bottom out
around 50 to 60 below zero. Looking ahead, there is a possible
warmup early next week as a low pressure system looks to bring a
warmer and wetter airmass towards Alaska.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Persistent cold weather in the Interior remains with
temperatures well below normal through the weekend.
- Most cloud cover moves northeast later this week, leaving much
of the Interior clear and calm as isolated snow showers along
the Alcan Border dissipate.
- Widespread temperatures in the 30s/40s below zero or colder will
continue with possible 50s/60s and below zero in the coldest
spots later this week.
- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
weekend for the Central/Eastern Interior. Areas of ice fog are
ongoing in Fairbanks and are expected to expand in coverage
heading through the weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow and gusty winds will return to the Y-K Delta and St.
Lawrence Island tonight into Thursday, leading to low visibility
at times. Snow accumulations in the Y-K Delta of around 1-2"
with 2-5" at St. Lawrence Island with wind gusts up to 40 mph
possible.
- Widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero are expected
to continue to build in with 40s/50s below zero in the coldest
spots, trending colder later this week.
- A long term Cold Weather Advisory has been issued through the
weekend for portions of the Western Interior where temperatures
as cold as 55 below zero are expected.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Gusty winds and light snow will continue to lead to low
visibility across the Eastern North Slope/Arctic Coast and
Central Brooks Range through Thursday, diminishing west to east.
Light additional snow accumulations and wind gusts up to 40 mph
expected.
- A colder and drier airmass will build in Thursday into Friday
and remain in place through early next week, supporting
widespread temperatures in the 20s/30s below zero with 40s/50s
below zero in the coldest spots.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Friday Night.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows broad surface high pressure
prevailing across much of Northern Alaska, as a low pressure
system tracks east along the Arctic Coast with snow and gusty
winds and another system moves northeast in the Bering Sea with
another round of snow and gusty winds. Surface high pressure and
broad upper-level troughing is continuing to allow for a very
cold, Arctic airmass to remain in place overhead, supporting
widespread well below normal temperatures through the weekend.
Colder areas will bottom out around 30-50 below zero with coldest
areas reaching down towards the 60s below zero across the
Interior. Ice fog has also developed in the Fairbanks area and is
expected to continue through the weekend and expand in coverage as
cold and dry conditions prevail.
The first system moving east along the Arctic Coast continues to
bring gusty winds and snow to the Eastern Arctic Coast south
through the Central Brooks Range where gusts up to 45 mph and 1/4
mile visibility has been reported. These conditions are expected
to continue through Thursday, improving west to east. That second
system working northeast through the Bering Sea will send a front
into the Y-K Delta and St. Lawrence Island tonight through
Thursday, with snow and wind gusts up to around 40 mph expected.
Snow will struggle to make it towards the Seward Peninsula which
is where cold and dry conditions are expected to continue.
The biggest changes to our hazards today have been an expansion
of the long fuse Cold Weather Advisory across the Interior to
capture temperatures in the 50s and 60s below zero across much of
the Interior valleys. Any wind will lead to much colder wind
chills. Light winds will continue to create areas of ice fog. A
Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for St. Lawrence
Island, with the continuation of Winter Weather Advisories and
Blizzard Warnings for the Eastern North Slope.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through next Wednesday.
Cold conditions continue at the start of the extended forecast
period and through the weekend. The best chance for a warmup in
the current forecast comes as a stronger low enters the Western
Bering Sea. There is still some uncertainty in the strength and
position of this low but even the weaker estimates would likely be
strong enough to break down what remains of the Bering Sea ridge,
allowing some warmer, wetter, more southerly air to reach into
Northern Alaska Monday into Wednesday. As with most ridge
breakdown events forecast confidence is not very high. Models have
difficulties accurately timing ridge breakdown, especially in
regions with sparse observations like Alaska, but much of that
uncertainty will be in regards to timing and distribution of
potential snowfall. A warmup is likely for the region when this
low breaks down the ridge.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-808-809.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ838>845.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&
$$
.SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
.KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
.SHORT TERM.....MacKay
.LONG TERM......Stokes
461
FXAK67 PAJK 010001
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Wed Dec 31 2025
.SHORT TERM...
As of 2pm this afternoon, our parent low is just off the northern
coast, continuing to push moist onshore flow over the Panhandle.
While widespread snowfall breaks apart into more of a showery
regime this afternoon, the northern coast is seeing heavy
snowfall. Heavier bands from this feature have moved west,
impacting Yakutat; a winter wx advisory was upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning. For folks in the Panhandle, showers continue, with
rain south of Sitka/Angoon/Petersburg and snow north. Impacts
will be tied to where these snow showers propagate, with the
potential to see a quick round of heavy snow over Wednesday night.
Shower strength begins to diminish overnight into Thursday, with
a cooling and drying trend into the weekend. Across the Northwest
Territory, Yukon, and British Columbia an arctic high continues
to dominate, with a tight north/south pressure gradient between
the Coast Range and the gulf. Expect temperatures to slowly trend
down over the next several days as cold and dry arctic air
infiltrates the Panhandle. Along the coast, some shower activity
is likely to continue as a low drifts to the southeast, perhaps
bringing a quick hit of snow to Pelican/Elfin Cove and areas
south.
.LONG TERM...Cold, stable, and predominantly dry weather pattern is currently
expected through Saturday night with higher confidence. The arctic
air mass situated over the Yukon, further amplified by a strong
upper-level ridge will dictate much of the weather going into the
weekend. The northern channels, including Haines and Klondike
Highway will experience the coldest conditions, with daytime highs
likely remaining in the single digits, and overnight temperatures
dipping below zero near White Pass and Haines Customs. The low
pressure currently lingering near the NE gulf coast finally looks to
dip south on Friday, bringing changes of snow showers for the outer
coast mainly. Not expecting these snow showers to move into the
inner channels as much, due to dry and cold air filtering in from
the north.
This pattern begins to shift on Sunday as upper level forcing drives
a low pressure system towards the northern coast. The main source of
uncertainty for this incoming system is the interaction with the
high pressure in the Yukon. The EPS is definitely the most
aggressive in breaking down this high pressure, with the GEFS and
GEPS keeping the high pressure from breaking down as much in the
means. One interesting point is the currently non operational HGEFS
show an in between solution in the means, which would still keep
most of the panhandle cold enough for snow. While not included in
the current analysis, it more points to the unknowns for how this
energy will interact with the cold, dry air in Canada. While there
is high uncertainty in this part of the forecast, what can be
said is moisture is highly likely (>80%) to stream back into the
panhandle bringing more precipitation. The main question going
forward is where will get the most precipitation, and what weather
type (rain, snow, exc) could fall at each location.
&&
.AVIATION.../ through Thursday afternoon / Key features today is
the surface low south of the Yakutat area which is spinning
showers about this low. The showers are moving across the coast
and Yakutat. Some of the showers have been heavier in nature so
will have to account for those overnight.
Related to the low are the showers moving into the northern portion
of the panhandle. Snow for the Haines and Skagway areas, but the
north central has had some rain in the Juneau and possibly the
Gustavus area. So IFR for northern portion with vis and ceilings
/ 1/2 mile or less and ceiling up to 1500 feet. / There higher
ceiling of 2500 to 5000 for the southern panhandle overnight and
this could continue into Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal Waters): Current wind analysis along the
central and eastern gulf shows strong breezes out of the S-SW for
the Chichagof/Baranof/PoW coast, with northeasterly fresh breezes
along the coast; localized areas of gales out of major inlets/bays
like Dangerous River and Lituya. Sea state is dominated by SW
seas, with significant heights 10 to 15 ft, highest seas from the
Fairweather grounds to Cape Decision. A 10 to 12 second period is
masking the underlying shorter period SW wind chop and
northeasterly outflow. As the southerly winds diminish today
southwest seas will begin to trend down, with outflow winds
generating easterly seas out of major entrances and gaps in
terrain. Most of our coast should be below 10ft significant wave
heights by late Wednesday night. Main threat continues to be major
inlets/rivers like Dangerous River and Cross Sound for NE outflow
winds bringing higher seas of 8 to 10ft. Favoring the coast will
help limit wave growth due to limited fetch potential.
Inside (Inner Channels): The tale of two regimes continues this
afternoon; warm blustery winds along/south of Icy Strait-Portland
Island, with cool outflow winds continuing in Lynn Canal and the
northern inlets of Glacier Bay. Expect a brief respite in winds
this afternoon for the north before the pressure gradient between
the Gulf of Alaska and Canada builds, with our N to NE outflow
wind regime dominating most of the inner channels. Regarding wind
strength, expect many channels to switch between near-gale force
to gale force conditions over the next several days. As cold
arctic air infiltrates the Panhandle, freezing spray will become
more of a threat, Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet will likely see
moderate to heavy freezing spray. Caution is advised for gale
force E-NE winds around the four corners area (Taku Inlet).
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ317.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ319.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-651.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-022-031-032-053-641>644-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...AP
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