865
FXAK68 PAFC 020000
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKDT Sun Jun 1 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The main focus over the next several days will be on a large
surface low and upper-level trough slowly rotating from the
Pribilof Islands today, south to the central and eastern
Aleutians for Monday, then into Bristol Bay for Tuesday. These
features will be the drivers for the unsettled weather conditions
across much of Southcentral over the next 48 to 72 hours.
Currently, the surface low near the Pribilofs is driving a front
over the western Gulf, with widespread rain and southeasterly
winds from Kodiak Island north and east to Prince William Sound.
Ahead of the front, gap wind are increasing from Turnagain Arm to
the Knik and Copper River Valleys as a coastal ridge builds south
of the Chugach Mountains and the pressure gradient between it and
trough over the interior strengthens. Moderate rain is also
falling along the coastal mountains and the windward side of the
Alaska Range as southeasterly flow aloft ushers in copious amounts
of moisture from the North Pacific. This fetch of moisture,
however, will get cut off Monday as the best upper-level moisture
transport shifts east along the western periphery of the ridge.
Before it does, however, most areas along the western Gulf coast
should see rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.75 inches through Monday.
For interior locations across Southcentral, the southeasterly,
cross-barrier flow and coastal ridging will allow for drier
conditions as downsloping and gusty gap winds set up. This will
help to keep much of the western Kenai up through the Mat Valley
mostly dry with only the occasional sprinkle or brief period of
very light rain. The Copper Basin will also remain mostly dry with
gusty southerly winds through Tuesday.
The next wave ejects from the upper-level trough late Monday into
Tuesday with another frontal system moving from the western Gulf
to the northern Gulf. The set up will be very much the same with
this feature as was with the previous, wetting rains along the
coast and gap winds for typical locations. However, the winds
aloft on Tuesday will shift from southeasterly to more south-
southwesterly through the late morning and afternoon hours,
allowing for moisture to push into Cook Inlet bringing better
chances for rain from the western Kenai north into the Mat-Su
Valleys.
The aforementioned Bering low will then send several more
disturbances toward the region resulting in showery conditions
for coastal areas through midweek.
-TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The front that has moved inland today across Southwest Alaska
continues to degrade, as the widespread rainfall and gusty
southeasterly winds begin to diminish this afternoon into this
evening. A Coastal Flood Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
including Kwigillingok, Kongiganak, and Kipnuk remains in effect
through 9 PM tonight as the weakening along- shore winds in
combination with the high tide are expected to result in elevated
water levels of 1.5 to 2.5 feet above the normal highest tide
line.
The parent low continues to spin in the southern Bering about 100
miles west of Saint Paul as it begins to drift back towards the
south towards the Aleutian Chain tonight. An upper-level shortwave
rotating around the back side of the low will spread rain showers
and gusty winds west to east across the Aleutian Chain tonight
into tomorrow morning. By tomorrow morning, the low center begins
to track into the southeastern Bering Sea and brings another round
of enhanced southeasterly winds and rainfall to Southwest Alaska
behind the initial front. For the Kuskokwim Delta coast, elevated
water levels are again possible during high tide Monday, but
should remain below levels of previous high tide cycles due to
weaker winds and lower tide height.
Unsettled and showery weather continues across the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska through Tuesday night as the low
weakens and moves towards the YK Delta region where it will move
inland and diminish through Wednesday afternoon. An increasingly
unstable environment for the Kuskokwim Valley may result in
isolated thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening, though persistent cloud cover may limit chances for
thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, a weak and fast-moving North
Pacific low lifts north and skirts the south of the AKPen as it
heads into the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday, with the bulk of
precipitation associated with this system expected to remain to
the south. Further west, weak high pressure will bring generally
mild conditions to the Western Aleutians and Bering Sea through
Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
The large upper level trough that has been persistent across the
Bering and Aleutians will flatten somewhat and lift across
Southcentral with embedded shortwaves rotating around the main
trough axis. The positioning and orientation of the trough will
keep a favorable storm track for Southcentral, which will continue
to support cooler and wetter than average weather conditions for
the long term. Model guidance suggests one wave of low pressure
moves into Southcentral Wednesday afternoon. A break from
precipitation may occur on Friday for the region between systems,
though any clearing/daytime heating will present a chance for
afternoon thunderstorms. Another system works into the area for
Saturday and Sunday.
-AM/BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected through
this evening and then again Monday afternoon.
&&
$$
530
FXAK69 PAFG 012312
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKDT Sun Jun 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure current over the Bering Sea moves over Bristol Bay
Monday night before tracking across the mainland through the end of
the work week. A warm front lifts northeast across the area ahead of
this low pressure primarily resulting in increasing cloudiness.
However, better moisture south of the front allows for increasing
chances and coverage of diurnal showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms too. Ridging over the northern Chukchi Sea results in
persistent northeasterly winds across the North Slope and
accompanying low stratus/fog between Utqiagvik and Barter Island.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Slight chance for a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon around Eagle
then along and west of a line between Lake Minchumina and Bettles
Monday afternoon/evening and becoming more widespread on Tuesday.
- Highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for most places through
Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures returning at the end of
the week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light rain along a front lifting north across the Seward Pen
tonight then up to Kotzebue on Monday with diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing each day through Thursday
- East winds gusting up to 45 mph across the YK Delta through Sunday
evening.
-North-northwest winds increase up to 35 mph along the west coast
late on Wednesday and continue on Thursday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Well below normal temperatures continue with highs around freezing
and lows mainly in the low 20s.
-Persistent onshore flow results in low stratus and fog potential
continuing through the week, especially during the "night".
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 516 decameter low across the Southern Bering Sea is the primary
weather maker over the next few days. The systems` warm front lifts
northeast across most of the interior by Monday evening. A
substantial shortwave pivoting around the low lifts across the
Alaska Range on Tuesday allowing for more scattered showers and
perhaps a few small areas of widely scattered thunderstorms.
An energetic shortwave tracks south across the North Slope tonight
before shearing apart on Monday. Generally easterly flow persists
across the West Coast through Tuesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday evening has the driest conditions with min RHs dipping to
near 20% for most interior valleys under sunny skies. However,
moisture and cloud cover increase with an approaching frontal
boundary resulting in min RH values generally near or above 30%,
except the upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys for Monday and Tuesday.
Generally light and variable winds are expected in the driest areas
with steadier east-southeast winds along the West Coast and western
interior. The exception being southerly winds through the Alaska
Range Passes with gusts over 50 mph Sunday evening then again
Tuesday evening before winds diminishing on Wednesday. Min RH values
between 30% and 35% are expected in the areas of strongest winds.
Low thunderstorm chances return across the west coast and western
interior on Monday and increase on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River at Stevens village is beginning to crest and water
levels are forecast to fall early next week. The Manley Slough is
beginning to crest as well but there are no concerns there
either. Otherwise, most rivers and creeks will continue their
downtrend into next week.
The only river of concern right now is the Sag River. Temperatures
remain below normal through the week so break-up is not expected
quite yet. There are no major concerns unless there is a rapid warm
up which is not expected for the next week.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Longwave troughing develops on Wednesday as a low pressure system
over Bristol Bay moves inland and phases with a low pressure system
situated in the Beaufort Sea. Ridging builds across the Gulf of
Alaska ahead of a closed low approaching Kodiak Island on Saturday.
This pattern brings diurnal showers across much of the interior
including the Brooks Range on Wednesday and Thursday before shifting
to the eastern interior Friday and Saturday. Expect near/below
temperatures across the forecast area with the coolest temperatures
on Thursday and Friday across the interior. Occasional light snow
chances with low stratus/fog persist across the North Slope with a
gradual warming trend toward above freezing temperatures.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
223
FXAK67 PAJK 012334
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Sun Jun 1 2025
.SHORT TERM...The beginning of June has brought some long overdue
quiet weather across the panhandle. While lingering rain showers
and a stratus deck in some areas will be present, many areas will
see periods of sunshine as a ridge builds across the panhandle.
The best chances for any showers through today will be across the
northern half of the panhandle and the coastal mountains. The
ridging over the panhandle has begun to pinch, tightening the
pressure gradient and increasing onshore flow. This will
especially impact the northernmost panhandle, peaking this
afternoon with areas in Skagway already seeing increased wind
speeds up to 25kts. Winds will steadily decrease through late
tonight into Monday morning, as a weak front approaches the outer
coast from the SW. The front will be largely falling apart by the
time it arrives midday on Monday, so no more than some enhanced
rain shower chances are expected, alongside some breezy conditions
for the outer coast.
.LONG TERM...
Rain returns this week. Mostly showery, though at times the rain
could be heavy, especially along the northern coast including
Yakutat.
Key messages:
-Lingering leftover shower chances early in the week.
-More rounds of moderate rain mid-week.
-Temps remain unremarkable with lows in the 40s and highs in the
50s, though upper 50s to low 60s are possible in the southern
panhandle.
Details: A consolidated upper low centered over the Bering
Sea/eastern Aleutians will start the period on Tuesday. This will
support a shortwave trough that will lift northward towards the
northern Gulf of Alaska Monday into Tuesday, continuing stronger
onshore flow to fuel light to moderate rainfall across the
northern Coast and parts of the southern Panhandle. Winds will
slightly increase with this system, though impactful speeds will
remain in the eastern gulf. The front associated with this trough
will dissipate quickly once reaching the coast, though showers
will stick around Wednesday as the main upper level low stalls
over the eastern Bering sea. Precipitation will continue through
the week as another low reaches the panhandle Wednesday night into
Thursday with highest amounts set to impact Yakutat and northern
regions. Guidance suggests strong potential for a weak to moderate
atmospheric river to aid the system on Thursday which will
produce areas of rainfall that could be heavy starting in the
northern panhandle and moving southeast.
Uncertainty remains in the models through next weekend with
potential for another low to follow close behind the previous. GFS
runs show the track just skimming south of the panhandle, while
EC and Canadian runs agree on a northern coastal impact. EFI
Tables currently match with the northern coast, though impacts
still remain light either way. If the low tracks north, there is
potential for ridging to develop into the weekend which could
bring more clear weather before it reaches the coast. That being
said, there is still a strong enough signal for the ridge to break
down quickly, allowing the troughing over western Alaska to slide
east, giving SE AK more rain. Stay tuned for updates through the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Break day in widespread weather continues for the panhandle as a
brief dirty ridge shifts eastward over the panhandle. Can`t rule
out a isolated sprinkle here and there through the evening, but
not anticipating much sky clearing with moisture trapped under the
ridge with MVFR to VFR conditions prevailing with CIGS AoB 8000ft
for majority of the panhandle through Monday evening, decreasing
during the overnight hours with CIGS AoB 3500ft as front
approaches the southern panhandle into Monday morning. Low
confidence, but could see some patchy dense fog development for
some southern panhandle TAF sites through Monday morning under
calm winds, hit or miss for TAF sites. Through Monday, rain
returns across the northern and coastal panhandle as a weak front
pushes inland, with low-end directional LLWS potential for Yakutat
by 12z around 25kts near 2000ft. Rain showers gradually spread
inward into the central panhandle through Monday afternoon.
Anticipating southern interior panhandle should remain generally
dry with front losing support moving southward down the panhandle.
Winds should remain around 10kts or less through the afternoon
for much of the panhandle, decreasing to 5kts or less overnight
and variable, outside of Skagway and Haines which will see
persistent elevated sustained winds 15 to 25kts with gusts up to
25 to 35kts as gradient tightens from approaching front. Strongest
winds for Skagway should be between 00 to 06z with sustained
winds near 25kts and gusts up to 35kts likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front that moves across the gulf toward
the panhandle will increase winds and waves along the outside waters
and for the gulf coast. These winds will be around fresh to strong
breezes of 15 to 25 kts with the strongest winds near the NE gulf
coast. Wave heights for the outside waters and coast will build to
10 to 12 feet through Monday beginning to subside to 6 to 8 ft
Tuesday. Winds then remain around 10 to 15 kts offshore until the
next low pressure system arrives Wednesday in the western gulf.
Inner Channels: Most inside waters remain around 5 to 10 kts with an
exception of Lynn Canal that is seeing 15 to 25 kts throughout
tonight into tomorrow. The strongest of these winds are located over
Northern Lynn Canal and near Taiya Inlet into Skagway. This is due
to a strong pressure gradient staying in place and continuing to
bring times of sustained 20 to 25 kts and gusts up to 30 to 35 kts.
Winds tomorrow will briefly increase to 15 kts as a weak front tries
to make its way into the panhandle. Winds will then remain around 5
to 10 kts for the inner channels, with stronger winds in Lynn Canal,
until the end of the week. At the end of the week, a low in the
western gulf and ridging over the panhandle will increase the N to S
oriented pressure gradient increasing inside water wind speeds to 15
to 20 kts.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....GJS/ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
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