019
FXAK68 PAFC 220117
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Upper level high pressure continues to be the status quo for the
short term for Southcentral Alaska. A Special Weather Statement
has been issued for the Cook Inlet region and valley locations for
the likelihood of fog to redevelop once again overnight tonight
and affect the morning commute. Without any big synoptic player to
erode the inversion, radiational cooling during the overnight
hours will keep the chance of fog around for the next couple of
mornings. Once again, valley locations will generally be cooler
for the next couple of nights than higher elevations due to the
low to mid level inversion in place.
By the start of the weekend, a North Pacific low makes its way
into the far western Gulf and turns northwestward towards the
Alaska Peninsula, bringing rain back to the forecast to Kodiak
Island. This low will likely be of lower impact to the area, but
its upper low component will help to cut into the ridge and weaken
its influence over the area. The attendant front, however, will
make its way northward across the western Gulf through the end of
Saturday.
-AM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...
The high amplitude blocking ridge remains over the Pacific
Northwest and up across the Gulf of Alaska into mainland Alaska.
This ridge is keeping the storm track in the western Bering Sea
and will do so through Friday. By Saturday, the orientation of
the ridge will shift a little to allow more southeasterly flow
aloft into Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea regions.
The sensible weather resulting from this pattern will be little
changed through Friday with areas of fog and lower stratus
persisting over Southwest Alaska and the central and eastern
Bering Sea. A few mid-level clouds will allow intrude into
southwest Alaska at times, but there is not any precipitation
expected out of these clouds. That is probably a good thing as the
strong inversion is keeping a freezing rain profile for much of
Southwest Alaska the next few days. however, that should have no
impact since there is not any precipitation expected.
The pattern shifts a little on Saturday with more southeasterly
flow aloft. This will bring in more warming aloft and a better
chance for precipitation due to some upper level waves trying to
move from Kodiak toward the Bristol Bay region on Saturday. At
this time, it looks like the surface temperatures along the Alaska
Peninsula and eastern Bristol Bay will warm up enough by Saturday
to create rain as the dominant precipitation type. However, there
is still a chance for some freezing rain at that time. The
farther northwest one goes, the chance of precipitation
decreases, but the cold air at the surface will remain colder
resulting in a better chance of freezing rain if precipitation
does occur. hopefully, this can get more refined as we head toward
the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...
The persistent pattern of upper level troughing over Kamchatka
and the western Bering Sea looks to continue through the rest of
the weekend and likely through early next week. Several shortwaves
and accompanying surface lows will lift in succession from the
North Pacific and across the western Bering, keeping windy and wet
weather conditions through the Western and Central Aleutians.
Weak surface lows as far east as the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
will remain possible.
The upper level ridge that has been comfortably sitting over
Mainland Alaska starts to show signs of flattening as an Arctic
low over the Yukon and Northwest Territories sinks into northern
Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. Offshore, easterly flow at the
surface seems likely. Confidence decreases significantly by
midweek, but guidance points toward the Arctic low marching west
and phasing with the main trough over the Bering Sea. The high
pressure ridge that was flattening, would begin to rebuild across
southern Alaska with upper level southerly flow dominating the
Mainland. Embedded surface lows could make its way into
Southcentral, but forecast confidence remains low for the
trajectory of each of the surface lows.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...From this evening through tomorrow morning, IFR
visibilities are likely, with the potential for LIFR visibilities
in dense fog similar to what was seen this morning. While there is
uncertainty with how low visibility will drop and how long fog
will persist, the weather pattern remains much the same as this
morning, which means we will likely see another round of dense
fog.
The setup will remain conducive for low stratus and fog through
at least the end of the week due to narrow dewpoint depressions
near the surface, light and variable winds, and the strong
inversion remaining overhead.
&&
$$
478
FXAK69 PAFG 212235
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
135 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry across the region with high surface pressure. A weak
low pulls warmer, more moist air across the West Coast and North
Slope Thursday through Saturday bringing widespread light snow and
warming temperatures into the 20s to near freezing. Warmer, more
moist air in the lower atmosphere across the Western and Central
Interior has created widespread low clouds despite the high
surface pressure. Interior temperatures remain relatively warm
through the weekend. The forecast becomes less certain for next
week, but generally low impact weather is expected with falling
temperatures and light snow.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
finish out the week, with areas of low stratus and fog.
- Temperatures will gradually trend colder through the weekend,
with coldest locations dropping down to the double digits below
zero. Temperatures drop further early next week with widespread
temperatures in the double digits below 0.
- Chances of light snow increase next week across the Interior.
Confidence is still low for exact location and timing of snow,
but the highest chances are in the southern and central Interior
with no more than a few inches expected.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated snow showers will continue across the West Coast today
into tonight with pockets of freezing drizzle. Dry conditions
remain in place over the Western Interior, with areas of low
stratus and fog.
- More widespread precipitation moves into the West Coast north of
the Y-K Delta and NW Arctic Coast Thursday into Friday, with a
rain/snow mix possible as temperatures near to above freezing
lift north.
- Gusty winds continue from the NW Arctic Coast southwest through
the Bering Straight to St. Lawrence Island, with gusts of 25-40
mph expected through Thursday night.
- Temperatures will trend warmer along the West Coast through
Friday with the warmest locations reach at or above freezing.
Conditions across the Western Interior will hold steady or
gradually cool.
- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast
this weekend into early next week, supporting the return of
widespread subzero temperatures and dry conditions.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Winds will shift to being out of the S/SW today into tonight,
allowing for warmer temperatures to lift north. Winds ramp up
Thursday into Friday with gusts of 25-45 mph expected across the
Central/Western Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range.
- Predominant dry conditions today with isolated snow chances
gives way to steadier snow building into the Western North Slope
Thursday into Friday, as snow and stronger winds shift to the
Eastern North Slope Friday into Saturday.
- Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, peaking on Friday
with highs in the 20s and 30s regionwide. Where temperatures
rise to near or above freezing, we could see a wintry mix
possible.
- A colder and drier airmass will build in out of the northeast to
finish out the weekend into early next week, supporting the
return of widespread double digit below zero temperatures and
dry conditions.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Wednesday through Saturday.
At the start of the forecast period Wednesday, a ridging pattern
extends from the southeast over most of Northern Alaska. Most of
the region is clear and calm, although these same conditions have
allowed for some low clouds to form in valleys throughout the
Western and Central Interior where there was sufficient moisture.
These clouds are low enough that they are nearly touching the
ground creating areas of mist and fog that could hinder travel.
This ridging pattern continues through the forecast period keeping
conditions mostly stable throughout the Interior. A weak surface
low moves out of Siberia across the Chukchi Sea east into the
Beaufort Sea Thursday through Saturday bringing some light snow
and breezy winds to the West Coast and North Slope. This low pulls
warmer temperatures across the West Coast and North Slope bringing
temperatures into the upper 20s to near freezing for many
locations. On the West Coast some light snow with chances for
embedded freezing drizzle amongst the snow expected primarily from
St. Lawrence Island north and slightly east through the Bering
Strait and Chukchi Sea Coasts Thursday and Friday. Across the
North Slope snow chances increase late Thursday into Friday west
of Point Barrow pushing further east Friday. The heaviest expected
snow is expected along the northwestern slopes of the Eastern
Brooks Range primarily east of the Dalton Highway where 2 to 5
inches are possible. Southwesterly winds are expected across the
North Slope Thursday through Friday 15 to 25 mph. These winds will
shift westerly late Friday into Saturday peaking near Barter
Island at 20 to 30 mph where there may be periods of reduced
visibility due to blowing and falling snow. There is a slight
chance for embedded freezing drizzle amongst the light snow across
the North Slope, most likely west of the Dalton Highway.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Saturday night through next Wednesday.
At the start of the extended forecast period late Saturday, a
ridging pattern and high surface pressure continues across the
state. A strong high pressure in the high Arctic pushes south and
east as lows push through the North Pacific towards the Gulf of
Alaska and Bering Strait. The combination of possible ridge
breakdown and the very uncertain interactions between the very
strong Arctic high and the lows moving through the Pacific leads
to a very uncertain pattern. However, despite the uncertainty,
conditions look mostly benign for the region through most of next
week with the Arctic high allowing colder temperatures to pull
into the region. The Pacific lows may supply enough moisture to
allow for some light snow early next week, most likely further
south in the Interior.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
050
FXAK67 PAJK 220036
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKST Wed Jan 21 2026
.SHORT TERM...
Fog remains the main impact across the panhandle. This
fog is mainly affecting isolated and protected areas around the
central to southern panhandle, with a marine fog layer over the gulf
coast waters. This low marine layer fog has also reached Sitka
reducing visibilities to below 1/4 mile at times. Dense fog and
Freezing Fog advisories remain in place for these areas that are
seeing low visibilities around 1/4 mile. Other areas of the
panhandle that continue to experience calm winds, could see areas
of fog. This fog will reduce visibilities and can impact marine,
air, and land travel. Otherwise dry conditions remain across the
panhandle with temperatures right around freezing. With little
winds, and clear skies, temperatures will once again fall quickly
after the sun goes down. If wind does increase, in an area, warmer
temperatures from aloft could mix to the surface.
The main impact across the far north, near Haines and Skagway,
continues to be stronger winds as outflow slightly increases. The
strongest winds will be over Taiya inlet into Skagway with winds
around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible. These outflow
winds will be strongest late Thursday morning into afternoon before
slightly diminishing.
.LONG TERM...The long term weather for the end of the week
continues to look fairly quiet with high pressure remaining over
the panhandle before a weak low pressure moves into the northern
Gulf. Until then, weak outflow winds will continue with the
gradient along the Coast Mountains. With the weak outflow, surface
temperatures will continue to be cool while places that see
increasing winds will see temperatures jump as temperatures aloft
are warmer than at the surface.
For the end of the week and into the weekend, ensemble guidance
wants to bring a weak surface low into the northern Gulf that will
bring a return to seeing some precipitation in the area. With the
weak, shallow inversions, any mixing would result in most places
seeing rain while the far northern panhandle could see snow at
higher elevations.
CPC guidance suggests overall warming temperatures next week with
the more active weather, but due to the weakening outflow winds
persisting in Lynn Canal, northern panhandle communities still have
a chance to see this precipitation fall as snow before most likely
changing over to rain by early next week. Precipitation still looks
to remain on the lighter side of what is typical for Southeast
Alaska, though continued onshore flow and another potential broad
low following behind should keep relatively consistent precipitation
in the forecast for next week.
&&
.AVIATION...The main impact for the aviation forecast going
forward tonight is going to be the fog across the area. Areas
that have developed or likely to develop fog will likely see
visibilities drop down to 1/4SM with LIFR conditions. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected to persist where the fog is not able
to set up. Places that are likely to see fog are those that did
develop fog overnight last night. Otherwise, flying conditions
will be fairly quiet outside of the fog near the surface.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Continued light winds remain over most of
the inner channels with the exception of Northern Lynn Canal as
outflow has begun. The strongest winds over N Lynn Canal will be
near Eldred rock through Taiya inlet. In those locations, northerly
fresh to strong breezes, 17 to 27 kts, will continue through the
week. In areas where light winds remain, the main marine hazard
continues to be fog. Areas of fog have remained across Frederick
Sound, Glacier Bay, and the gulf coast into Sitka Sound through the
day. Some of these channels are seeing visibilities drop to 1/4
nautical mile allowing for the dense fog advisories to remain in
place. Other areas of the inner channels are likely to see some
areas of fog develop again tonight. Lastly, there is a chance to see
light freezing spray across Lynn Canal later this week due to
increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. We will continue to
monitor this possibility.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure continues to bring
fairly benign marine conditions across the outside waters. As
outflow winds build, expect fresh to strong breezes to come out of
Cross Sound, and other common outflow locations, by Friday. Then
this weekend, a change in pattern comes due to a series of low
pressure systems pushing north into the Gulf waters. This will allow
gulf winds and seas to increase and remain elevated. This increase
in winds and seas currently looks to begin early next week with
persistent SE gulf winds.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKST Thursday for AKZ323.
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327-
328.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...SF/AP/ZTK
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAB
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