788
FXAK68 PAFC 011339
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 AM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday)...
As of 430am, latest radar imagery shows precipitation gradually
diminishing along the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su
Valley in wake of a trough passage. Southerly, up-inlet flow has
kept temperatures near freezing or even rising just a couple
degrees overnight. With freezing rain over the last few days, many
untreated surfaces remain quite slick. While winter weather
advisories are no longer out, please continue to exercise extra
caution when outside or traveling.
Farther east, precipitation will continue for portions of the
central/eastern Chugach and Copper River Basin before diminishing
later this afternoon. Observations note 2 to 4 inches have already
fallen across much of the area, with locally higher amounts in
higher terrain such as Thompson Pass. Additional snow accumulation
of a couple inches for many of these areas are likely this
morning before precip ends later today.
Much of the area will receive a respite from precip today as the
upper trough curves east towards the Yukon and as an upper level
ridge moves in from Southwest. Areas of snow will linger for the
longest across the Copper Basin, especially from Glennallen north
to Paxon and Mentasta Lake.
A strong Bering low will send another front across the region
from the southwest by early Tuesday, sending another batch of warm
southerly flow and precipitation back into Southcentral. With the
exception of the Copper Basin and northern Susitna Valley, it
looks likely temperatures will be warm enough this time for mostly
rain to move in with this front at lower elevations. Still, some
mixing with freezing rain cannot be entirely ruled out for spots
that hold on to colder temperatures, such as the southern Susitna
Valley, western Matanuska Valley, or even the typically-cooler
spots in Anchorage. Rain and higher elevation snow will come to an
end for the most part by Wednesday as the surface front weakens
and hangs up along the Gulf coast and as temperatures turn the
corner towards what could be a rather dramatic cooling trend later
this week.
-Brown/AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The axis of a weakening trough remain anchored from Adak to the
Kuskokwim Delta in the form of a front bringing precipitation to
the area. A Special Weather Statement is active for the Kuskokwim
Delta for ongoing freezing rain through the remainder of this
morning. Freezing rain will diminish by noon today as the front
continues to weaken, however chances for precipitation will
continue through the afternoon, just with less accumulations. As
the pattern weakens, a new system approaching from the northern
Pacific aims to phase in, re-intensifying this system.
As the new strong low pressure system approaches near the southern
Alaska Peninsula early tonight, storm-force easterly winds will
develop along the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians.
Phasing between these systems will quickly amplify the
northeasterly flow across the central Bering near the Pribilofs
currently in place, similarly up to storm-force. Locally higher
winds driven through favored gaps and passes are expected such as
near King Cove and Cold Bay with these strong winds. Additionally,
this system will reinvigorate the precipitation regime across the
eastern Bering and Southwest coastline, including the freezing
rain along the Kuskokwim Delta beginning early Tuesday morning. As
such, an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect from 3AM Tuesday to
9AM Wednesday for significant icing for the Kuskokwim Delta,
Kuskokwim Valley, including Bethel, Aniak, and Crooked Creek. Ice
accumulations of one half to three quarters of an inch expected
along the coast by Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations of one
quarter of an inch expected across the Kuskokwim Valley. Total
snowfall accumulations up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph along the coast and 15 mph for inland locations.
This low pressure system is expected to persist, driving the
weather pattern in the eastern Bering Sea through Wednesday,
promoting widespread stronger winds and heavier precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...
Thursday begins with the low over the Central Aleutians
weakening. This leads to lower precipitation chances and winds
speeds for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland. Southcentral
Alaska will also have a drying trend as higher pressure moves into
the region. All of this less active weather will be accompanied
by a large cool down due to cold air advection from the north.
Things get more uncertain moving into Friday as the cool down
continues. Some guidance has the colder air keeping more to the
east, with Western Alaska seeing less cold temperatures whereas
other guidance has the Arctic air taking a more western track and
encompassing almost the whole state. This also has implications
for storm tracks as well. If the colder and more stable air takes
the western track, less active weather can be expected for Western
Alaska, but if the eastern track wins out, there is a potential
for lows to make it into the Bering and cause snowfall and winds
in the Southwest Mainland. The story is the same for the weekend
regarding uncertainty. Regardless of what occurs, what is known
is that Southcentral and Southwest Alaska will experience much
colder temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend and
that less active weather will accompany this cooling trend.
-JAR
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Mixed precipitation is gradually diminishing this morning,
though can`t completely rule out a short period of additional FZDZ
or --SN this morning before it exits entirely. Later today, MVFR
CIGs will gradually improve to VFR and wind will shift from SE to
NE. Another front moving across the area will bring about another
shot of precip early Tuesday morning, with a brief period of FZRA
possible before surface temps warm above freezing.
&&
$$
689
FXAK69 PAFG 011350
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
450 AM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air from the Arctic and warm, moist air from the Pacific
will meet across Southwest Alaska and the Interior over the coming
days, setting the stage for widespread snow chances through
midweek. The heaviest snow is expected along a corridor running
from the Lower Yukon northeast towards the Yukon Flats, with
activity increasing later today into Tuesday and continuing
through Wednesday. Totals near the center of this band are
expected to be around 5-10" with 2-5" along the peripheries. A
wintry mix is expected on the south side of this band, with ice
accumulations around 0.05-0.20" for the Lower Yukon and Upper
Kuskokwim. Very light ice amounts remain possible northeast into
the Middle Tanana Valley. Along the West Coast, gusty N/NE winds
will continue to lead to areas of blowing snow, which at times
could significantly reduce visibility. Conditions quickly improve
from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday as a colder and drier
airmass builds into Northern Alaska under the increasing influence
of high pressure. This will support a significant cooling trend
later this week, as the coldest temperatures so far this season
settle in.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow chances continue to increase across the Interior today into
Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday, with a light wintry mix
possible from Fairbanks south Tuesday through Tuesday night.
- Total snow accumulations through Wednesday around 3-5" with
highest totals around 5-8" north and west of Fairbanks and in
the Alaska Range and lowest totals around 1-3" SE of Fairbanks.
- Southerly winds increase through Alaska Range Passes tonight
into Tuesday, with gusts up to 55 mph possible especially north
of Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway.
- Increasing high pressure building in Thursday will lead to much
colder and drier conditions to finish out the week. Temperatures
in Interior Valleys dropping to around -20F to -40F later in the
week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow chances continue to increase across Southwest Alaska and
the Western Interior today into Tuesday, continuing through
Wednesday, with a wintry mix possible across the Southwest
Interior and Lower Yukon/Upper Kuskokwim Valleys. Conditions
remain cold and mostly dry across the Seward Peninsula and NW
Arctic Coast.
- Highest snow totals through Wednesday are expected along a
corridor extending northeast from the Yukon Delta into the
Western Interior, where around 5-10" of snow is expected with
2-5" along the peripheries.
- Total ice accumulations across the Southwest Interior and Lower
Yukon/Kuskokwim Valleys around 0.05-0.20".
- Elevated N/NE winds with gusts up to 55 mph will continue across
the West Coast through Wednesday. Areas of fog, isolated snow
showers, and blowing snow will lead to periods of reduced
visibility at times, especially for the Bering Straight, St.
Lawrence Island, and Southern Norton Sound/Yukon Delta Coast.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest will lead to
colder and drier conditions across the NW Arctic Coast,
expanding further south Wednesday through the end of a week.
Coldest locations dropping to around -10F to -25F mid to late
week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures continue on a cooling trend early this week, with
areas of low stratus and scattered snow showers expected as a
low pressure system works east through the Arctic Ocean.
- An arctic front tracking east across the North Slope through
Wednesday will support an additional 1-3" of snow for the
Central/Eastern Arctic Coast/Plains and Brooks Range. Drier
conditions are expected to continue further west.
- Breezy winds across the Arctic Coast and in the Brooks Range
could lead to areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility at
times.
- Increasing high pressure out of the northwest Tuesday into
Wednesday will lead to much colder and drier conditions to
finish out the week. Coldest locations dropping to around -20F
to -40F mid to late week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad area of low
pressure centered south of the Central Aleutians in between two
ridges of high pressure in the NE/NW Pacific. In the Arctic, an
area of low pressure continues to work east as that ridge of high
pressure in the NW Pacific lifts north through Siberia. These
features will combine to pull in a colder airmass out of the
northwest and a warmer/wetter airmass in out of the southwest,
meeting in the Interior and supporting widespread snowfall chances
through midweek.
Scattered snow showers will continue across Southwest Alaska and
the Interior north to the Arctic Coast today as a series of
shortwaves work across Northern Alaska with pockets of a wintry
mix further southwest. A more robust push of moisture will lift
north as a 960 mb low currently near 40N/160W will get wrapped up
in that broad area of low pressure near the Aleutians, supporting
a turn north towards Bristol Bay later today into Tuesday. This
system, tapping into a plume of moisture down to almost 20N just
north of Hawaii, will support an increase in snow of snow starting
tonight into Tuesday along a corridor extending from the Yukon
Delta northeast to the Yukon Flats. Areas from the Lower Yukon to
Upper Kuskokwim south and west are most likely to see a wintry mix
with a chance for some brief periods of freezing rain Tuesday,
and areas north of a line from Fairbanks to Anvik will see mostly
snow with slim to no chance for wintry mix. Areas in between, from
the Middle Tanana Valley south and west towards the Lower Yukon
will see mostly snow with some periods of wet snow and wintry mix
Tuesday. An enhanced gradient between this system building into
the Southern Bering Sea and high pressure over Siberia will also
lead to continued gusty N/NE winds along the West Coast.
Light snow initially with these shortwave troughs today will
transition over to moderate to heavy snow Monday night through
Wednesday from the Yukon Delta northeast through the Interior to
the Yukon Flats. A mix of Winter Weather Advisories, Winter Storm
Warnings, and Special Weather Statements are in effect for this
corridor. Storm totals near the center of this band are expected
to be around 5-10" with around 2-5" along the peripheries. A
wintry mix is expected on the south side of this band, with ice
accumulations around 0.05-0.20" for the Lower Yukon and Upper
Kuskokwim. Very light ice amounts remain possible northeast into
the Middle Tanana Valley. This ice will be mixed with snow and may
be hard to accurately measure. Across the North Slope, that low
working east through the Arctic Ocean will support scattered snow
showers through Tuesday night, with additional snow accumulations
around 1-3" for the North Slope and Brooks Range.
With respect to winds, a tightening gradient along the West Coast
through Wednesday will lead to gusty N/NE winds with gusts up to
55 mph possible. Strongest winds in this corridor as expected from
the Bering Straight south to St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon
Delta, as strongest winds remaining offshore. Given these stronger
winds, areas of blowing snow will be possible which could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times. A Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect for the Bering Straight and St. Lawrence
Island to capture these impacts through Tuesday. This would also
apply to the Arctic Coast as that low tracks east through the
Arctic Ocean, with patchy blowing snow possible. Gusty northerly
winds will continue to keep the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic
Coast mostly dry as progressively colder temperatures build in out
of the northwest. Further inland, winds will remain strongest
across higher elevations with a focus in the Brooks Range and
through Alaska Range Passes. Southerly winds will increase through
Alaska Range Passes tonight into Tuesday, with gusts up to 55 mph
possible especially north of Isabel Pass along the Richardson
Highway.
As this ridge of high pressure extending from the NW Pacific into
Siberia shifts east midweek, this will allow the colder and drier
arctic airmass to build into Northern Alaska Wednesday into
Thursday as moisture from that low near the Aleutians gets cut
off and shunted east. This will lead to lessening winds along the
West Coast throughout the day Wednesday as snow chances taper off
NW to SE Wednesday through Wednesday night.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Monday.
Ensemble model guidance remains in good agreement late this week on
a much colder and drier airmass building into Northern Alaska under
the increasing influence of high pressure. GFS/ECMWF ensembles shows
850 mb temperatures dropping down to around 15-30 below zero across
our entire CWA, supporting widespread double digit below zero air
temperatures with coldest areas reaching down to around 30-40 below
zero. Dependent on clearing skies, we could see locally colder
temperatures below -40F. As a result, later this week is shaping up
to bring the coldest temperatures so far this season for most with
warmest locations staying along the West Coast. For Friday into
the weekend, long range models are showing increased confidence on
a trough shifting southwest out of NW Canada and the Beaufort Sea
towards Southcentral. This pattern would keep best precipitation
chances remaining south of our area, but would support at least
some isolated to scattered snow chances across the Southeast
Interior and Alaska Range through the weekend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-852-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-810-816-817-850-851-853-
854-856-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&
$$
MacKay
765
FXAK67 PAJK 011345
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
445 AM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Diminishing trend in winds and precipitation for Monday into
Tuesday. Lingering showers primarily across northern panhandle.
- Another system arrives Tuesday night bringing predominantly
rain and warming temperatures into midweek.
- Late week into next weekend, long range models are hinting at a
weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow. High
uncertainty at this time but worth watching closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Precipitation continues
across the panhandle this morning though at a diminished rate
compared to overnight. The last upper vorticity center from this
current system is moving into northern British Columbia as of 3
am and taking its heavier precipitation with it though some still
lingers in the far north. Most areas have converted to rain this
morning except for the Chilkat Valley, the upper elevations of the
Klondike Highway, and Hyder where snow is still being observed in
webcam images. Winds have diminished overall and stayed mostly
out of the south.
The next 24 hours of the forecast is mainly dominated by SW
onshore flow from the gulf. Showers will be the main rule for most
areas especially on SW facing slopes with a slow diminishing
trend as onshore flow weakens into Monday night. Snow levels are
generally around 3000 ft (1700 ft in the extreme north) so most
low elevation communities will see the showers in the form of
rain. The exceptions remain the Chilkat Valley, and Hyder where
cold air damming should keep temps cold enough for snow this
morning before warming enough to get a mix this afternoon and
tonight. The upper elevations of the Klondike Highway likewise
will stay mostly snow as well. Snow accumulations should not reach
more then an inch or three through late Monday night for the
areas that still see snow .
Winds have generally diminished across the area in the system`s
wake this morning. Highest winds are currently in Stephens Passage
and in the Misty Fjords and southern Clarance Strait areas, but
even these areas should see diminishing wind speeds through the
morning hours. Into the afternoon and evening the outer coast will
be the area that see some winds to 10 to 20 kt as SW flow
intensifies especially in areas exposed to the W and SW. The
onshore winds are then expected to diminish late tonight as winds
begin switching direction to the south ahead of the next system.
.LONG TERM.../through this week/...The upcoming week is looking
like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls between
the frontal passages but the overall trend in the long term
forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this week into
next weekend, the long range weather models and ensembles are
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy
snow.
After the midweek frontal passage, continued showery weather with
on/off type rain with above normal temps.
Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. The long term weather models and ensembles are hinting at
a low pressure trough to develop to our north with a high pressure
ridge to our south at the higher levels of the atmosphere. This
kind of pattern usually allows for cold air from Canada to slide
southward into SE AK while moisture streams in from the gulf at
the mid to higher levels. This type of pattern is called
overrunning and has been known to produce heavy snow here.
The forecast challenges will be centered around the the cold air
from the north and the flow from the gulf. These two variables
will be fighting each other. Too much cold/dry air from the north
causes the precip amounts to be limited. Too much wind from the
gulf causes the atmosphere to mix and the snow switches to rain.
But where that balance sets up just right is where heavy snow is
likely.
As of now, there is high uncertainty in the details but overall
trend is on the snowy side of the rain/snow spectrum. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
Early Monday morning conditions are generally poor across the
Panhandle, with coastal TAF sites reporting IFR to LIFR CIGS and
VSBY and interior areas seeing MVFR with CIGS near 1500 to
3000ft, vsby 5SM to 10SM. Expecting these conditions through most
of the morning as the remnants of a front move into Canada, with
precip trending downward through Monday. Expecting some showers
later Monday afternoon as VFR makes a brief appearance; however,
CIGS are expected to diminish to near 1000 to 2000ft across the
inside tonight, with coastal areas likely IFR from CIGS into
Tuesday morning.
LLWS threats continue to diminish through Monday morning, with
southwest post-frontal winds impacting the coast and southerly
winds across the inner channels. Speeds should generally remain
near 10 to 20 knots, highest winds in Icy Strait, Stephens
Passage, and Lynn Canal.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer Waters: W to SW winds of 20 to 25 kt rule the gulf waters
today in the wake of yesterday`s system. Expect these winds to
persist into this evening before diminishing and starting to
turn to a southerly direction on Tuesday ahead of the next system.
Winds will then start increasing through Tuesday afternoon to
around 20 to 25 kt as the next front moves from West to East.
Seas are currently hovering around 10 ft (with a S swell around 8
to 9 ft. period of 10 sec) and are expected to persist at that
level through Tuesday at least due to persistent SW swell and
then the increased winds from the front on Tuesday.
Inside waters: Stephens Passage, Misty Fjords, and Clarence Strait
are still seeing some southerly winds to 25 kt early this morning
from the departing system. Those winds should diminish through the
morning hours before winds in most channels switch to a W and S
direction as onshore flow takes over (Clarence Strait will be the
exception with flow turning westerly enough that NW winds will
likely be observed in Clarence for this afternoon and tonight).
Highest winds up to 25 kt in this flow pattern will be in ocean
entrances that are exposed to the W and SW (especially Cross
Sound, and near Cape Decision) through this evening. Then expect
diminishing winds for Tuesday before they increase to 20 kt
Tuesday night as a new front moves in. Seas mainly dominated by
wind wave up to 5 ft in windier areas. Ocean entrances will see
higher seas up to 8 to 9 ft in areas exposed to the SW and W due
to 8 to 9 ft SW swell invading from the gulf.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAL
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