616
FXAK68 PAFC 301327
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Messages:
- Flood Advisories remain in effect across Mat-Su and in the
Cordova area, and many rivers still have elevated river
levels.
- Mostly clear skies overnight led to lows dipping into the 30s and
lower 40s this morning, with a few areas of patchy fog developing.
- Labor Day Weekend: Generally warm, partly to mostly cloudy. Dry
through Saturday afternoon, with a chance of light rain thereafter.
Localized breezy areas in the afternoon and evening.
Discussion:
Quieter weather this Labor Day weekend across Southcentral as
high pressure builds over the Gulf. The recent rainfall combined
with light winds will allow for some areas of patchy fog this
morning. Some midlevel cloudcover is starting to work into SW
quadrant of Southcentral as another trough over the Bering lifts a
front through the Aleutians and southern AKPen. Cloud cover will
continue to increase as the front lifts north today and could see
some light showers move across the northern Susitna Valley later
tonight. Overall amounts look to remain light with better chances
for accumulation over the Bristol Bay area where better forcing
will be in place. Another shortwave will take a similar track
Sunday...clipping western Susitna Valley. The primary trough will
lift through early next work week bringing another round of
showers through the western half of Southcentral.
While this past weeks heavy rainfall has ended...several rivers
across the Mat-Su and Cordova areas continue to remain in flood
stage this morning, and many rivers will remain elevated
throughout the weekend.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
A deep occluded low continues to take up residency over the
western Bering this morning. On satellite, its front stretches to
Nunivak Island and then southwestward through the Eastern
Aleutians. CIMSS MIMIC Layer precipitable water shows 1.0 to 1.5
inches of precipitable water over the eastern Bering along the
front, and higher amounts approaching 2 inches south of Nikolski.
This atmospheric river will bring more rain to Southwest Alaska
and the Aleutians through the weekend into early next week, as the
front makes slow eastward progress into the Alaska Peninsula the
next 24 to 48 hours. As has been touched upon in the previous
forecast discussion, widespread rainfall is anticipated today and
tomorrow for the Eastern Aleutians and Southwest Alaska. Forecast
rainfall totals remain largely unchanged.
Areas along the coast can expect to see heavier precipitation as
well as higher amounts compared to inland areas. Southern portions
of the southern Alaska Peninsula, primarily King Cove and False
Pass, and the Togiak/Twin Hills area may see 3 to 3.5 inches of
rainfall from Saturday afternoon through Monday. False Pass, in
particular, may be primed to see 5+ inches of rain over the next
48 to 72 hours. Dillingham and the Western Capes from Goodnews Bay
to Platinum are still expected to see up to 2.5 inches of rain
for the same time period. Heavy rain may cause stream rises and
ponding on low lying areas along the northern Bristol Bay coast.
In addition to rain, persistent, gusty small craft to gale force
southerly winds remain forecast with the front as it pushes
eastward, eventually overspreading the Kuskokwim Coast this
afternoon. A threat for elevated surf will impact the region;
however, the highest winds are expected to peak during low tide
both today and tomorrow, and significant coastal flooding is not
expected at this time. Gusty winds to 30 mph or higher at times
are possible as far inland as Bethel through this weekend.
BL/KM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through Friday)...
There is very little change in thinking for the beginning of next
week through the end of the workweek. A broad longwave trough
will be situated over the western and central Bering Sea, while a
longwave ridge extends up from the North Pacific into the Gulf of
Alaska toward the Alcan Border. This general pattern looks to hold
through mid- to- late week, aiming a stream of tropical moisture
in excess of one inch of precipitable water between these
features, toward the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska. As a
result, several inches of rainfall are forecast along the Pacific
side of the Alaska Peninsula, potentially in excess of 4 inches
for some locations through Thursday. Lower amounts, broadly
speaking 1 to 3 inches are possible for mainland Southwest Alaska.
While these regions are likely to be wet for much of the long
term forecast period, there is uncertainty in the exact
orientation of the atmospheric river, so many locations will
likely see several periods of moderate to heavy rain as the
moisture plume wobbles back and forth (west/east). There is some
potential that the moist southerly flow glances parts of
Southcentral, with the Cook Inlet region and southern Kenai
Peninsula with the greatest potential to see another round of
lighter rainfall.
High pressure across the Gulf of Alaska keeps winds light and
conditions generally dry across Southcentral for the duration of
the forecast period (with the exception of the aforementioned
potential for glances of moisture intrusion). By Wednesday, the
next North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians, bringing
gusty winds, potentially to gale force, and light to moderate
rainfall. The track of this low is particularly uncertain, but it
looks to be fairly slow moving and generally tracks along the
periphery of the Aleutian Chain through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
southerly to southwesterly winds, less than 10 kts, will persist
through this afternoon before becoming more southeasterly this
evening. Southeast gusts of 12 to 18 kts could clip the terminal
at times tonight through Sunday morning. However, the core of
strongest winds will remain over Turnagain Arm.
&&
$$
730
FXAK69 PAFG 301503
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
703 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025
Updated synopsis, key messages, and extended discussion
.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, some gusty conditions will
continue across parts of the Eastern Interior but should end by
this evening. A coastal system currently over the Bering Sea is
bringing rain and showers to the Lower Yukon Valley and Norton
Sound coastlines. As it approaches the mainland, this rain will
spread both north and east, with additional rain falling across
most of Western Alaska through early next week. South winds will
also increase across the coast. Rain with this system will spread
into the Central and Eastern Interior and across the North SLope
from early to mid next week. A warming trend is expected across
Northern Alaska through the weekend, with highs increasing into
the mid 60s and 70s near the eastern border and the mid to 50s to
mid 60s in Western Alaska and on the North Slope by Monday.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, cool conditions with
breezy west-southwest winds will continue across the White
Mountains and Yukon Flats before diminishing by late this
evening.
- While some areas of clearing are likely in spots this morning
and near the eastern border, skies will be mostly cloudy
through the weekend, with light rain showers moving through
Saturday night and Sunday.
- General warming is likely through Monday, with most of the
Eastern Interior rising into the 60s and 70s. While the Central
Interior will still warm by several degrees, it will be cooler
in the upper 50s to around 60 Monday, with showery weather
expected.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A system moving in from the Bering is currently bringing an
area of rain and showers to the Lower Yukon Valley and coastal
areas of Norton Sound. This rain will spread northeast across
Western Alaska through the weekend.
- Rainfall in the Western Interior between now and Monday morning
will range from a few tenths of an inch in the Middle Yukon
Valley to over an inch in the Lower Yukon Valley, with higher
totals over the high terrain. Most coastal areas except the
northern Seward Peninsula could see around or over half an
inch, although parts of the southern Seward Peninsula (mostly
at elevation) could see over 2 inches.
- The coastal system will bring sustained southerly winds to the
coast through early next week, with coastlines seeing winds
of around 20 to 25 mph gusting to 35 mph.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Spotty wet snow showers will continue this morning on the North
Slope and Arctic coastline. Accumulations are not likely due to
warm ground temperatures and air temperatures that are only
near or slightly above freezing, and any snow should end by
later this morning as temperatures rise.
- Warmer temperatures are expected today across the North Slope,
with highs in the lower to mid 40s. Further warming will bring
highs into the lower to mid 50s Sunday and the upper 50s to
mid 60s early next week.
- West winds up to 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, will continue
on the eastern Arctic Coast through this evening before
diminishing as a low pressure area moves offshore. Winds of 20
to 30 mph will also occur from west of Point Thomson to Nuiqsut
during this time frame.
&&
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Wet and cloudy conditions will continue across Northern Alaska in
the extended time frame. Rainfall totals from now through
Wednesday morning should widely be around or over an inch across
the West Coast and Western Interior, with lower totals in the
Central Interior. Continuing south winds over the West Coast from
a coastal system should fall off by Tuesday night, with generally
showery weather there and in the Western Interior through late
week. Near to somewhat warmer than normal weather will continue
during this same time frame across Northern Alaska, with the
warmest conditions near the eastern border with ridging aloft
poking into the area from over Canada.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025/
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is currently traversing the eastern half of
northern Alaska and is dragging a surface cold front along with
it. The front was located across the Eastern Interior as of early
this afternoon and is expected to cross into northwestern Canada
this evening. In the wake of this front a 14 to 16 millibar
pressure gradient is taking shape between the surface low near the
northeast Arctic coastline and higher pressure developing near
the Alaska Range. We expect to see gusty west and southwest winds
from the central interior into Fortymile Country this evening and
into the overnight hours. Thus a wind advisory has been posted to
reflect these stronger winds.
Meanwhile overnight will bring an eventual end to the steady
precipitation that has been occurring the past several days. Most
areas should dry out in the post frontal environment tonight and
Saturday with the exception of the Yukon Delta where the next
scheduled storm system will start to push rainfall ashore as early
as Saturday afternoon.
The weekend will feature a building ridge over the eastern half of
the region with troughing regaining a foothold over the west.
Expect temperatures Saturday to run 5 to 8 degrees cooler than
normal as most areas will see only limited sunshine with high
level moisture streaming back over the area thanks to increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the next developing storm system.
As low pressure moves into the southwest Bering another round of
healthy moisture transport will result in additional rainfall
over the west coast and the western interior Sunday into Monday.
FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns remain at a minimum as wet conditions and
limited fuel availability highlight most of the region. The upper
Tanana Valley remains the exception as drier conditions will
persist through the weekend and into early next week. However fuel
availability is limited and expected to remain that way.
HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning for areas
surrounding the Noatak, Kobuk, and Koyukuk rivers. Flood
advisories remain in effect for Kobuk and the Sanctuary River in
Denali National Park as water levels remain high at both locations.
At Allakaket, a flood warning remains in place as the Koyukuk
River is expected to now crest overnight into Saturday morning.
Elsehwere hydrologic outlooks are in place for rivers and streams
in and around Denali National Park as well as along the Southern
slopes of the Brooks range and throughout the western interior due
to recent heavy rains.
Lighter rainfall will continue in the Western Interior and
especially the higher elevations of the Western Brooks Range where
up to 1.25" of rain is possible along the south facing slopes
through tonight. Additional rainfall is expected late this
weekend into early next week, but early forecast information
indicates lighter rainfall amounts than what fell earlier this
week.
Recent heavy rainfall will allow elevated water levels to persist
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro information at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
There is the potential for some high surf along the southern
Seward Peninsula coast as well as the Yukon Delta Coast by Monday
as an area of low pressure stall over the western Bering Sea. This
system will be weakening with time, so no major coastal impacts
are expected at this time.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
DS
925
FXAK67 PAJK 301258
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
458 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025
.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ A weak trough moving
through the northern panhandle is bringing increased cloud cover
to the northern half of the area this morning. Some very brief
light rain has also been reported in some locations of the north
overnight as well. This trough will have an effect on the weather
for the panhandle on Saturday and Saturday night due to increased
onshore flow, mainly in the form of cooler max temperatures and
more cloud cover (particularly for the north) compared to
yesterday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today and tonight
with max temps into the 60s for the north and 70s for the south.
With the warm weather, sea breezes will continue to be the main
driver of any winds today. However the strength of these sea
breezes will likely be somewhat weaker given increased cloud cover
in some areas and cooler max temperatures.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures increase to above normal again on Monday
A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Light outflow winds will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 kt
sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait will see
increasing inflow sea breezes which will meet up with the outflow
and increase wind speeds down Chatham Strait. Sea breezes will
attempt to make it to coastal communities, but may have trouble
combating the outflow winds which will decrease their speeds.
Maximum temperatures in the southern panhandle are expected to
reach the mid to low 70s Sunday, with inland areas feeling the
warmest as they are not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern
panhandle will see high 60s through the weekend, with inland areas
breaching low 70s. Minimum temperatures will reach the low 50s to
high 40s, as the lack of cloud cover allows the land to cool much
more significantly at night. Temps will increase to above normal
again on Monday, with MaxT EFIs of 1 for the entire work week. 16
to 17 degrees C 850 mb temps aloft have spread to a majority of
the panhandle, with the southern panhandle potentially seeing 18
to 19 degrees C. This indicates that many communities may see
temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s starting Monday, and even
higher for the southern panhandle.
An upper level low moves up from the southeast Wednesday
afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models have
slightly more agreement than yesterday having the low jump onshore
over the panhandle, though the GFS still wants to hold off for a
little longer. The associated surface inflection could bring
precipitation back to Yakutat Thursday, reaching the rest of the
panhandle Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Expect generally VFR category flight conditions for most of the
Panhandle through the period with enhanced afternoon sea breezes
for most locations in the Panhandle. The exception will be the
Outer Coast and the western half of the Icy Strait Corridor. These
areas will see down to around the MVFR/IFR category range during
the morning hours due to marine layer influence for the central &
southern Outer Coast & the Icy Strait Corridor, including PAGS,
PASI, & PAKW. A combination of marine layer influence & influence
from a decaying frontal system, bringing some light showers, will
be the culprits for the northeastern Gulf Coast area, including
PAYA. Flight conditions should improve up to the VFR category for
by noon Alaska time for all TAF locations. Marine layer influence
may return Saturday night for the aforementioned areas - with
similar results as mentioned previously. LLWS values continue to
be benign through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Inner Channels:Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are still the
main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in Icy
Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are expected through the weekend. An exception to this is
Clarence Strait where NW winds of 15 kt are expected to continue
blowing, and ocean entrances where any NW or W exposures will
allow stronger NW winds up to 20 kt from the near coastal water of
the gulf to invade.
Outside Waters: Area of high pressure has repositioned itself
into the central gulf decreasing winds and seas there and in the
northern gulf, but increasing NW winds in the eastern gulf as
pressure gradients strengthen between the gulf high and the
thermal low in British Columbia. That high is not going to be
moving much and will be strengthening through the weekend.
Currently seeing winds up to 20 kt off Prince of Wales Island and
seas of around 5 to 6 ft (mostly with a 10 sec period coming from
the W). These winds are likely to increase to 25 kt this evening
from Cape Ommaney southward as the gulf high strengthens and could
kick seas up to 8 ft by late tonight in the same area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry
through the weekend and into next week. Low risk for fire weather
concerns remain, but fine fuels are being watched. Lowest inland
relative humidity expected around 30 to 50% each afternoon where
skies are clear mainly for early next week. Warm temperatures
expected through mid next week but somewhat cooler for this
weekend compared to this past Thursday and Friday (60s and low 70s
for highs expected) before another warm period expected (70s or
higher for highs) for the first half of next week. Winds remain
low except for localized sea breezes up to 15 kt in the
afternoons.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
FIRE...EAL
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