National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


261
FXAK68 PAFC 090110
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak cold front will continue to move through the region today
bringing rain for northern portions of the Copper River Basin and
Gulf of Alaska coast. A weak ridge builds into most of the region
Friday.

Ahead of a cold front passing through Southcentral today, wind
gusts ranged from 35 to 45 mph in the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage
Bowl and the Mat-Su Valley. These southerly to southwesterly wind
gusts will diminish beginning later this evening. Temperatures
ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s across the region too
this afternoon; continuing the previous days` warmth early this
October.

Rain showers will continue in the Copper River Basin and north of
Talkeetna into this evening. Amounts through this afternoon have
ranged from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch; a trend that
will persist into late this evening as the front moves eastward.
Traces amounts are likely in the Prince William Sound and Mat-Su
Valley through this evening.

Tomorrow, continued unsettled conditions persist for the Copper
River Basin as a weak low moves across this area. Scattered rain
showers and cloudy skies are expected for the Copper River Basin
and Prince William Sound areas for most of tomorrow. Elsewhere,
continued dry and less windy conditions are expected. A ridge
moves into the are Friday leading to widespread continued October
warmth.


&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday night)...

Key messages:

- Another strong frontal system associated with a Kamchatka low
will cross the Bering Sea and Aleutians Thursday to Friday.

- The front will weaken quickly as it reaches the Southwest
coastline Friday night. Minor storm surge and coastal erosion
is possible for the Kuskokwim Delta as the front arrives.

- The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong are expected to
curve north into the Bering Sea this weekend. This will likely
become a Storm to Hurricane force low as it moves north into
the Bering.

- Potential impacts from Halong will be highly dependent on the
still uncertain low track. Stay tuned for updates as forecast
confidence improves.

Discussion:

A low moving over the North Slope and Chukchi Sea is continuing
to steadily weaken and drift northeast this afternoon. The low`s
trailing cold front is also continuing to degrade in strength as
it approaches the Alaska Range and northern AKPen. Much of the
remainder of the Bering and Aleutians is now under the influence
of a broad trough moving in behind the front, as west to southwest
winds up to around 25 kts persist across the central and northern
Bering Sea. Scattered showers are moving onshore from the
northern Bering into the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Water levels along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast have come down back to more or less to
normal levels as strong onshore winds slowly diminish.

From late tonight into Thursday, a strong low moving across
Kamchatka into the far western Bering will send a high-end Storm
force front into the western Aleutians. Hurricane force gusts will
be possible for a couple hours or so as the strongest
southeasterly winds push past Shemya. However, the front will
begin a steady weakening trend as it continues northeast into the
Bering and moves along the rest of the Aleutian Chain, with winds
diminishing to gale force by the time the corridor of strongest
winds reaches the central/eastern Aleutian Chain and Pribilofs
from Thursday night into Friday morning. The front will continue
to rapidly weaken as it reaches the Southwest coastline from
Friday into Friday night, but southeasterly winds gusting up to 40
to 50 mph will still likely reach into western parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta Friday night before the front truly falls apart.
The overall threat for coastal flooding with this storm system
overall looks considerably lower compared to the system that moved
through yesterday into this morning. However, given the higher
than average astronomical tides, minor coastal flooding and
erosion will still be possible on Friday night, particularly for
the communities of Kwigillingok and Kongiganak.

Attention from there quickly shifts to the expected fate of what
will be the extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong as the storm
curves north from the North Pacific towards western parts of the
outlook area. Models have come into a bit better agreement for the
track and evolution of the low as it transitions into a powerful
extratropical storm as it crosses the central Aleutians and heads
into the central Bering late Saturday into Saturday night. At this
time, it looks likely for a favorable interaction between
Halong`s remnant center with a strong upper level jet and a
shortwave trough lifting just off to the west heading north into
the western Bering Sea around the same time. Thus, Halong`s
remnants could deepen rapidly into an intense Hurricane force low
as it heads into the central Bering as early as Saturday evening.
There is still some uncertainty regarding how far west the
resulting system will track as it heads into the Bering, but
strong winds up to 50 to 70 kts and seas of 20 to 35 ft or higher
are likely to move near or just north of the central Aleutians and
to the west of the Pribilof Islands as the center heads quickly
north late on Saturday. Additional impacts in terms of winds,
waves and any coastal flood potential out towards the Kuskokwim
Delta will depend on the still somewhat uncertain low track and
intensity. Stay tuned to the forecast over the next few days as we
follow this system and as forecast confidence for this low
improves.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Southcentral Alaska will initially see a ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska. Shortwaves from a strong low in the west will take
advantage of a long fetch of moisture from the south. Widespread
rainfall from Kodiak Island to the coast, and even the inner
areas of Southcentral including Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley,
Western Kenai, and later the Copper River Basin is likely. A
strong front moves in on Monday and reinforces rain chances Monday
morning. The front will also allow for a possible barrier jet
along the coast south of Cordova. Gap winds in the Barrier Island
region are also likely. A weak ridge moves in Monday evening
through Tuesday, which decreases rain chances and wind speeds for
a time. Wednesday is more uncertain, but a front followed by
troughing is possible, which would increase rain chances yet again
as well as wind speeds. Strong winds moving into Prince William
Sound and potentially into Anchorage are possible, but much
uncertainly in this scenario remains.

Southwest Alaska is where most of the action is for this extended
period. Sunday starts off with a powerful low associated with the
remnants of Typhoon Halong moving up the Bering. Confidence has
increased with its strength but uncertainty about its track
remains. The low center is expected to track west of the Pribilof
Islands, staying west of Nunivak Island, and eventually
continuing north to the Chukotka region of Russia, or the Bering
Strait, or even as far east as the Seward Peninsula. A further
east track in the Bering with the center moving closer to Nunivak
Island, however, cannot be ruled out at the moment. If the
eastward track wins out, storm force winds could impact the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, which would cause coastal flooding issues.
However, as of now (2:00 PM 10/8), the westward track is favored
and flooding impacts would be minimal with this solution due to
lower wind speeds and storm surge. The low is expected to quickly
move north, which could limit more serious impacts due to a
lesser duration of the strongest winds in one area. Still, the
situation is evolving and the track of the low will be better
understood in the near future. Whichever solution is correct,
heavy rain and storm force winds are expected in the Pribilof
Islands and the Bering waters.

Monday has a break in active weather as weak ridging builds in
after the powerful low moves out. Lower wind speeds and less rain
chances result from this. Tuesday and Wednesday have more action
as a potentially strong low moves into the Bering. The track and
strength of this low are very uncertain due to a large spread in
model runs. Some kind of gusty winds and rainfall are expected
somewhere in the Aleutians regardless of the real track. Wednesday
looks to see some zonal-like flow as the features move eastward
and dissipate. This would mean lower wind speeds and less
rainfall.

-JAR


&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...The gusty Southeast winds up to 35 kt should begin to
diminish by late afternoon and turn more southerly 10 to 15 kt
by midnight. The winds will continue to slowly diminish overnight
and could switch to a light westerly wind Thursday afternoon. VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period, though a brief
ceiling between 3500 and 4500 ft cannot be ruled out in a shower
this afternoon or evening.

&&


$$



363
FXAK69 PAFG 090004
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal flooding/erosion, gusty winds, and pockets of heavy rain
continue along the West Coast and Northwest Arctic coast as a
strong low pressure system continues to track northeast, now
currently situated north of the Bering Straight in the Chuckchi
Sea. Strong southwest winds will continue to lift northeast from
the West Coast to the Arctic Coast today across the Interior,
supporting widespread breezy to gusty winds as a cold front tracks
east with rain and snow. Moderate to heavy snow will continue in
the Brooks Range through Thursday as a colder airmass moving in
supports cooler temperatures to finish out the work week along
with increasing snow chances.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Moderate to heavy rain will continue through Thursday morning
with cumulative rain totals of 1 to 2 inches for most of the
Interior expected. The highest amounts will be in the higher
terrain.

- Strong winds in the AK Range with gusts to 65 mph or higher
through Windy and Isabel Passes through late this evening, then
weakening quickly overnight.

- Wind in the Interior will be strong as well, especially in the
White Mountains and Dalton Highway Summits. Gusts will be up to
35 mph in the Tanana Valley, 40 mph in the Chatanika and Upper
Chena River Valleys, and up to 50 mph in the higher terrain
through Thursday.

- There will be showers on Thursday and Friday, Saturday will be
mostly dry, then heavier rain will move back in on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- The low continues to move north to northeast across the Chukotka
Peninsula.
- The low will weaken as it moves into the Chukchi Sea.
Periods of heavy rain and south/southwest gusty winds have
moved into into the Yukon Delta/Lower Yukon Valley, St.
Lawrence Island, and Norton Sound.
- Rain and wind will increase this evening in Kotzebue Sound
and Southern Chukchi Sea Coast.
- There will be a prolonged period of wind gusts of 40 to 60+
mph from the south/southwest from the Yukon Delta northward
through late tonight. Strongest winds will be in the Yukon
Delta, St. Lawrence Island and through the Bering Strait.
- Though most gusts will be capped around 60-65 mph, some
gusts may be as high as 75 mph, especially in typical windy
spots/higher terrain in the Bering Strait Region, and Yukon
Delta.
- Coastal impacts will be discussed in the "coastal hazard
potential" section. BUT, Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories
are issued and they have details about the flooding as well. -
These can be found at weather.gov/afg
- The next system will be a strong warm front that will bring
southeast winds gusting to 50 mph beginning Friday across St.
Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta then moving north.
- This will bring a period of very low water before water rises
even higher than the current storm over the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Winds will increase Wednesday evening as winds shift
southwesterly and then westerly. These westerly winds will bring
coastal flooding concerns and significant erosion. These
concerns are highlighted in the Coastal Hazard Potential
section.

- Widespread snow in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North
Slope will continue through Wednesday night. Scattered snow
showers could persist into Friday.
- Storm total snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches in
Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 5 to 10 inches in Atigun
Pass and potentially upwards of 18 inches in the Western
Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.

- There will also be very strong south winds in Atigun Pass which
will allow for significant blowing and/or drifting snow as well
as very low visibility.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

The 980 mb low over the Chukchi Sea continues to bring a broad
area of southerly winds to Western Alaska that will gradually
drift to the north to northeast. Moving into tonight, it will
shift more toward the east and move parallel to the Arctic Coast,
with its associated winds there becoming westerly. Southerly winds
in Western Alaska will weaken during this time frame as the
trailing cold front shifts inland, but this will coincide with
strengthening winds in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges and in
elevated areas of the Interior; winds of around 50 to 60 mph at
850 mb will gust down to the surface ahead of the front,
especially in the higher terrain where the extent of mixing needed
is reduced. By mid-Thursday morning, the low weakens into the mid
990s mb while shifting to the northeast, becoming an open wave as
it exits the area. Plentiful moisture being drawn from the open
Pacific northward will yield continuing moderate to heavy rainfall
across much of the state through mid-late week, especially in the
higher terrain where orographic influences are maximized.
Widespread additional rainfall of a quarter to half of an inch is
expected across the Interior, with higher totals in elevated
areas. Heavy snow is expected across the Brooks Range, with
observation data indicating several inches of snow has already
fallen at sites such as Atigun Pass.

See weather.gov/afg for the latest updates on the ongoing and
forecasted hazards associated with this storm.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 through 3...
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are in place for the coast
storm. The difference between warning/advisory doesn`t mean
"impactful/non-impactful". This WILL impact every community in
different ways, including significant flooding and/or significant
erosion. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding"
there will be significant impacts to beaches, air strips, dumps,
and more. Please see weather.gov/afg for the latest updates on the
ongoing and forecasted hazards associated with this powerful
storm.

We are expecting significant erosion for many communities along
the coast with coastal flooding likely, especially in more
vulnerable locations. Most, if not all communities will see some
sort of impact with this current storm.

We continue to monitor forecast guidance for an even more
powerful storm moving into the Southern Bering Sea on Saturday and
the Central Bering Sea and West Coast Saturday night and Sunday.
This second storm is expected to take a track that may impact many
of the same locations that are or will be impacted by today`s and
tonight`s storm. Please continue to monitor this second and
potentially even more powerful storm.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.

The cold front making its way across the West Coast will begin to
weaken into Saturday evening before another low coming up the
Bering Sea will begin to impact the West Coast Saturday evening.
This low will bring strong southerly wind gusts to the West Coast,
Alaska Range, St. Lawrence Island, and western Brooks Range
throughout the day on Sunday. This will bring more coastal
flooding concerns for areas on the West Coast and it may be
stronger then the one happening now. The Interior should remain
dry until Sunday as a cold front extends from the low, bringing
rain throughout the day.

A 950mb low will be making its way towards the West Coast with an
extended cold front bringing more rain and south/southwesterly
winds along the West Coast on Tuesday and persist through the
beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

We are expecting another coastal storm to impact Western Alaska
heading into Sunday and Monday, with additional details to come
into focus over the coming days. The overall model consensus
supports the remnants of Typhoon Halong moving east off the coast
of Japan into the Pacific, before sharply turning north into the
Bering Sea as it is works up along the western edge of a broad
ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Stay tuned over the
coming days for additional information regarding this storm.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801>803-815>818.
High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820.
High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821.
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ821.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822-827.
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ824.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825.
High Wind Warning for AKZ832-834.
Wind Advisory for AKZ838-842.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801>803-816-817-850-853-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805>807-809-810-852-855-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ808.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ813-814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815-859-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

$$

MacKay



461
FXAK67 PAJK 082334
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Wednesday mornings dramatic low clouds/fog was in response to a
surface high draped across the gulf, with patches of clear sky
aloft allowing temperatures to drop; a precursor to winters
encroach. While jackets zipped at the surface this morning,
abnormally high temperatures at 850mb (5,000ft) push east this
afternoon, with some areas seeing 10C (50F) at the top of the
surface inversion by Thursday. For reference normal temps this
time of year 5,000 ft above Annette are near 1C (34F). These
conditions will be short lived as another system pushes east off
the Kenai Thursday, driving cooler temperatures and onshore flow
back into the Panhandle into Friday, with freezing levels
plummeting to 1,000ft or so by Saturday. Light rain is anticipated
at sea level, with the potential to see a brief period of light
snow for the upper echelons of White Pass; however, warm soil
temperatures, weak snowfall rates, and timing will limit
substantial impacts. Simply put, typical cool fall weather,
minimal impacts, with snow levels dropping, foreshadowing the
coming winter.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term forecast
period
- Fast moving short wave trough over the interior brings rain Friday
- Chance for minor snow accumulations in far northern panhandle on
the tail end of the system
- Northerly outflow event Saturday
- Rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week

Building on the short range discussion, a fast moving mid level
trough will impact the panhandle through Friday. With influence
of high pressure remaining over the gulf, this system is not
expected to have much moisture content to work with and overall
rain amounts are expected to be relatively light. In the far
northern panhandle at the tail end of this feature, high pressure
will begin building over the interior. Because of this, northerly
outflow will begin to develop allowing for the possibility of
minor snow accumulations at higher elevations along the Klondike
Highway before precipitation fully exits the region later Friday
evening. Elsewhere across the panhandle near sea level communities
can expect cool light rain along with some increasing winds along
the ridge tops, but nothing particularly strong, as the trough
moves through.

While high pressure builds over the interior and Yukon Territory,
high pressure will also remain over the gulf and NE Pacific. As a
result, northerly outflow will develop with winds increasing along
north/south oriented channels. The strongest winds are expected
along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, particularly Saturday
morning. As of this forecast issuance, sustained winds up to near
gale force (28 to 33 kt) with gusts up to 40 kt are expected for
Lynn Canal along with seas gradually building to 5 to 6 ft. With
this dry northerly outflow and continued subsidence from high
pressure anchored over the gulf, there is growing confidence that
Saturday and Sunday minimum temperatures will reach near or below
freezing at sea level for most communities in the northern and
central panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer
coast and sheltered from significant wind. Daytime maximum
temperatures will likely be limited to the low 50s for the inner
channels while outer coastal communities could reach the mid 50s.

Northerly outflow winds are expected to largely diminish by
Saturday night with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting
into early Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance
starts to diverge slightly on timing for the next organized system
to impact the panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into
the panhandle late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of
moisture, others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this
off for a bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Overall
message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather
early next week after an otherwise fairly cold and blustery
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
While most places have seen VFR conditions throughout the daytime
hours today, these conditions are expected to diminish. Parts of the
area are still seeing impacts from the marine layer that developed
last night with MVFR conditions currently ongoing. This marine layer
is expected to expand tonight as high pressure moves closer to
shore. This will allow for a broader area to be impacted. With the
marine layer, conditions are expected to drop down to somewhere
between MVFR and LIFR for VIS and or CIGs depending on the location.
Locations that saw fog/stratus development last night should expect
to see something similar tonight as temperatures have been steady or
slowly rising along with dew points. These conditions are expected
to persist through the overnight hours before diminishing in the
late morning hours. But some lingering clouds could be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/Coastal waters):
Buoys along our coast continue to show decreasing trend of swell,
reporting SW 5-7 ft at 8-10 seconds Wednesday morning; significant
heights continue to settle. NW winds continue to build as a fast-
moving surface high slides east through the gulf, with moderate to
fresh breezes anticipated through the next 24 hours. Expect
local/isolated areas of strong breezes along major capes such as
Cape Edgecumbe and prominent features along western Prince of
Wales. Upstream of the Gulf of Alaska, a broad fetch of SSW winds
south of the Aleutian Arc is currently generating Fridays swell.
Anticipate significant heights to build to 11-13ft at 13-15
seconds out of the SW by Friday morning along the Alexander
Archipelago. Westerly winds build to strong breezes Friday along
our coast as well. One item of note is the post frontal WNW
outflow winds from Cook Inlet could bump up wave heights to near
17-20ft in the offshore waters.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Light winds (less than 15 knots) continue to be forecasted for the
majority of inner channels into Thursday morning with the
exception of local/isolated problem spots like southern Chatham
Strait, Pt. Couverden, and northern Lynn Canal, nothing outside of
what we typically experience in October. Friday a near-gale force
low moves along our coast, increasing southerly winds in Lynn
Canal to strong breezes. Friday night into Saturday, northerly
outflow conditions are forecasted for Lynn Canal and Chatham
Strait, with speeds reaching near-gale force for a few hours from
Taiya Inlet down to Vanderbilt Reef, driving 6 ft waves down Lynn
Canal toward Pt. Augusta in Northern Chatham/Icy Strait.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...AP

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