718
FXAK68 PAFC 220011
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Points:
* Unseasonably wet and windy weather is on the way for Wednesday
through Friday.
* The wettest weather will be the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
William Sound, and the Susitna Valley with rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches expected for most communities.
* Strong and gusty southeasterly gap winds will develop Wednesday
and persist through at least Thursday. Locations that will see
some of the strongest winds include Turnagain Arm, Anchorage
Hillside, south to west Anchorage, Palmer and the Knik River
Valley, and Glennallen and the Copper River.
A large and deep vertically stacked low is nearly stationary over
the southern Bering Sea. A strong short-wave lifting northward
along the eastern side of the trough is leading to amplification
of a downstream ridge, which is building from Southwest Alaska
north and east across the mainland. An atmospheric river extends
from the tropical Pacific northward to the Bering Sea low. While
total precipitation values are not all that impressive at less
than 1 inch, this is the driest time of year for Alaska and these
values are 200% to 285% of normal for the time of year. A frontal
system is spreading out from the low center across the northern
and eastern Bering Sea. A weak warm front is lifting northward
across Bristol Bay and the western Gulf, with a band of light
precipitation noted in radar imagery. For the moment, much of
Southcentral is quiet, under mostly sunny skies - but a change
back to cloudy, windy, and rainy is on the way.
On Wednesday, we will establish the large scale pattern that will
hold through the remainder of the week. The upper level flow will
continue to amplify and shift eastward, with the ridge ultimately
setting up shop over the eastern Gulf northward to the Yukon. This
will establish deep southerly flow and moisture transport from the
north-central Pacific to Southcentral. Multiple short-waves will
track from south to north through the week and combine with strong
low level southerly upslope flow to produce widespread significant
rainfall for coastal areas as well as the Susitna Valley. There is
some model spread in the track and amplitude of individual short-
waves which could shift the area of heaviest precipitation.
However, no matter the track of individual short-waves, the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound regions will see
the brunt of precipitation and winds. Precipitation will fall as
all rain at sea level, with snow levels ranging from roughly 1500
to 3000 feet above sea level Wednesday through Friday. There seems
to be enough shifting of the location of heaviest rain as short-
waves and surface fronts move through, so no one location sits in
the heavy rain for too long. Based on this, do not expect
any flooding. However, will continue to monitor changes in model
guidance to ensure this doesn`t change. Inland areas from the
western kenai to Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and the Copper
River Valley will see some downslope flow, which will limit
rainfall duration and amounts.
-SEB
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)...
A strong front associated with a strong Bering low is pushing
north and eastward, bringing mixed precipitation and gusty winds
to the Alaska Peninsula, Southwest Alaska mainland, and Nunivak
Island. By late this afternoon, the storm in the Bering will
strengthen to storm-force on the northern periphery of the system
west of the Pribilofs. Heavy rain will move over False Pass, King
Cove, Cold Bay, and Sand Point by this evening. Gap areas in the
Fox Islands and the Alaska Peninsula will see stronger gusts as
the front passes.
The front pushing along the Southwest coastline late tonight will
initially bring light to moderate snowfall and gusty winds to
Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta. These gusty winds and
snowfall will combine to promote localized blowing snow
conditions, reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times into
Wednesday morning. Inland areas north and west of Bethel will see
blowing snow as well. Also, a period of freezing rain mixed with
snow is expected over the Kuskokwim Delta early Wednesday morning.
Due to this threat, the Winter Weather Advisory now includes the
inland Kuskokwim Delta. By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will
warm above freezing and precipitation will reduce in intensity
over the Southwest Mainland as the front pushes eastward. The low
itself will be positioned west of the Pribilof Islands by this
time, bringing more gusty winds and precipitation over the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. Gap areas over the Fox Islands and
Alaska Peninsula will once again see stronger gusts during this
period.
The low will weaken as it moves northeastward. By Friday, winds
and chances for precipitation will have diminished over the Bering
and the Southwest Mainland. However, lingering showers will
prevail across Southwest Alaska. These will likely be rain during
the day and a mix of rain and snow at night.
-CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...
Unsettled weather continues across much of Alaska through the
weekend as a North Pacific low moves into the southern Bering near
Adak Sunday morning. The system tracks northeast past the Pribilof
Islands Sunday night and then slows west of Nunivak Island into
Monday. This will bring widespread gale-force winds across the
southern and eastern Bering and Bristol Bay, though the strongest
winds are expected to stay offshore. Coastal impacts look minimal
for now, thanks to shorefast ice and additional protection from
the extensive ice pack over the eastern Bering.
The front tied to this system will push into the western Gulf,
tapping into a steady stream of moisture. Coastal areas along the
northern Gulf, Kodiak Island, and higher terrain of the Alaska
Range will see the heaviest precipitation. Inland locations will
experience several days of lighter precipitation, with rain at
lower elevations and snow at higher elevations. A southeasterly
flow will also promote some downsloping, especially west of the
Chugach and Kenai Mountains, which could limit precipitation in
those areas.
Confidence in track has improved, with most guidance keeping the
low west to just northwest of Nunivak Island. This setup favors a
steady feed of moisture into Southcentral and Southeast Alaska.
One outlier (ECMWF) shifts the low farther west toward the
Pribilofs, which would increase winds and precipitation there,
but overall impacts elsewhere remain similar. As the system
weakens and shortwaves rotate around it, precipitation over
Southwest Alaska should gradually become less intense through the
first half of the week.
LM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty winds are expected to become light from the south to
southeasterly by this evening. VFR is expected through the rest
of the day today. There is a small chance for ceilings to dip into
MVFR with a brief shower ahead of the approaching front after
midnight tonight. Chances for rain and MVFR ceilings become more
likely by 12Z. Southeast winds will increase later Wednesday
morning and any potential for downslope drying could help to
lighten precipitation and lift those ceilings into VFR Wednesday
afternoon. Turnagain Arm winds will increase Tuesday afternoon,
initially turning more down inlet then out towards Fire Islands
and beginning to bend towards the terminal by Wednesday evening.
&&
$$
029
FXAK69 PAFG 212223
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Anchorage AK
223 PM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level troughing currently over Northern Alaska will stretch
and weaken as it makes its way northeast today. Various embedded
shortwaves may continue to promote light snow and snow/rain
showers through this evening for Central/Eastern Interior and
along the North Slope east of Deadhorse. High amplitude, upper
level ridging moves southwest to northeast across much of the
State of Alaska over the next couple of days, bringing milder
conditions to much of the Central/Northern Interior and much of
the North Slope for Wednesday through Wednesday night. A Bering
Sea low is expected to approach Southwest Alaska by early
Wednesday morning, bringing strong easterly/northeasterly winds to
the West Coast and parts of the Interior, including southerly gap
winds in the Alaska Range passes through the weekend. A
northeast-moving warm front attached to the aforementioned low
will bring snow and rain to the West Coast Wednesday morning through
early Thursday morning before tracking into the Interior and
North Slope later Thursday morning with rain and snow chances
likely to persist through the weekend. A warmer airmass flowing
in behind the warm front will allow temperatures to increase
across Northern Alaska, introducing more spring-like conditions.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM tonight
for the Central and Eastern Interior for snow and blowing snow.
- Snow and gusty winds will continue through this evening as
remnant embedded shortwaves pass through the region. Conditions
are expected to improve from west to east as a colder and drier
airmass moves through.
- A warm front moves through Wednesday, bringing warmer
temperatures and a rain/snow mix through the end of the week.
- Strong southerly flow off the Alaska Range will allow
temperatures to push into the 40`s and possibly low 50`s towards
the end of the week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Gusty winds, snow and a rain/snow mix move into the West Coast
and Western Interior as a series of fronts extending off a
Bering Sea low move over the region.
- Winter Storm Watches remain in effect tonight through Thursday
for the Y-K Delta north to Kotzebue and out to St Lawrence
Island for possible blizzard conditions.
- Rain and rain/snow spills into the Western Interior by Wednesday
morning with the approach of a Bering Sea front. Snowfall totals
of 2 to 6 inches prior to any mixing possible. Lower amounts
expected in the valleys with higher amounts expected along
terrain above 1000ft.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow showers will continue into this evening as upper
level troughing continues to lift northeast, primarily for
eastern areas.
- A Bering Sea front lifting cross the West Coast and Interior
will bring widespread snowfall to the Brooks Range and North
Slope, as well as increased gusty winds.
- Temperatures will warm into the double digits along the North
Slope by the end of the week, with temperatures along the Brooks
Range reaching near or above freezing.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Light scattered rain and snow showers will continue into this
evening as the upper level trough over the North Slope continues
exiting to the northeast. Ridging will move across the Northern
Interior tomorrow, bringing milder conditions to the Central and
Eastern Interior and North Slope for Wednesday.
The pattern shifts again with the approach of a Bering Sea
warm front moving over the West Coast tonight. Rounds of snow and
strong winds will bombard the western coast, Western Interior, and
St Lawrence Island through Thursday morning, with blizzard
conditions possible. Snowfall amounts will vary, decreasing for
inland areas. Highest snowfall is expected for St Lawrence Island,
who could see a range of 8 to 12 inches of snow with winds
gusting as high as 60 mph. The Y-K Delta Coast can expect snow
accumulations between 4 and 8 inches with winds gusting as high as
45 mph. Elsewhere along the coast from the eastern Norton Sound
to the Bering Strait and Diomede could see between 2 and 6 inches
with wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Snow will filter across the
rest of the Western Interior by Wednesday morning.
As the front progresses, snow and/or a rain/snow mix spill into
the Central and Eastern Interior late Wednesday night. A warmer
airmass is expected to trail the front, allowing temperatures to
increase and transition snow to all rain by Thursday.
Light precipitation may linger into the weekend.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The Bering Sea triple point low is expected to weaken and lose
energy on Friday, with scattered rain and snow showers continuing
for the Interior and North Slope through the weekend. Highest snow
accumulations are expected for the Western Alaska Range and
Western Alaska. Models are showing another Bering sea low to
approach Southwestern Alaska by early Sunday morning, with the
majority of associated precipitation likely to be rain as a result
of above freezing surface temperatures. This system will continue
to be monitored throughout the week to assess model agreement and
confidence. The higher temperatures brought in by the previous
system`s warm air advection are here to stay and will likely be
the introduction for spring in Northern Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-837>850.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ816>818.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>824.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...None.
&&
$$
206
FXAK67 PAJK 220536 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
936 PM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.UPDATE...For 6z TAF issuance and Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Benign pattern brings clearing skies and light winds through
the week. Dry and warmer conditions expected moving into the
weekend.
- High temperatures in the high 40s to 50s, steadily increasing
each day
&&
.SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/
A relatively benign pattern is in store for the panhandle this
week. Light showers are lingering across the central and northern
panhandle through early Tuesday afternoon, with breezy 20 to 25
mph winds persisting through the gulf and pushing into the inner
channels. As high pressure continues to spread over the panhandle,
showers will stay offshore and winds will calm down through
Wednesday. Rain chances start to return late Wednesday night for
Yakutat, but the rest of the panhandle is expected to remain dry.
A low marine layer is expected to develop in the gulf, which may
attempt to push inland over Yakutat and other areas along the
outer gulf coast.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are expected for the
northern and central panhandle, reaching into the low 50s in the
southern panhandle. Light winds are expected through the period,
but clearing skies may cause sea breezes to pick up through the
inner channels and for coastal communities midday through the
afternoon. Locations that see a significant amount of clearing on
Wednesday may feel sea breezes pick up which will keep temps along
the water from reaching the maximum potential highs, but inland,
sunny areas are more likely to hit them. Clear skies also mean low
temperatures may drop lower than expected overnight, though mid
30s to low 40s looks to be the current trend.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...
Forecast for today trends towards the drier solution, bringing
clear skies and warmer temperatures more widespread across the
panhandle Friday into Saturday. The main changes in the forecast
are in regards to precipitation chances, with model guidance
coming to agreement on lower precipitation chances further into
the central and northern panhandle Friday through Sunday. Even the
EC has come further in line with the GFS and Canadian
deterministic and ensembles with keeping the ridging stronger over
the Gulf, making the panhandle stay blocked from the
precipitation as the main flow stays further west. Even the
Yakutat area remains a bit uncertain, as some models are
suggesting even lower chances of seeing precipitation Friday night
through Sunday, but largely keeps at least a chance of rain
through the weekend. The models seem to split beginning Sunday
night into early next week, but the weekend showing higher
confidence on a drier solution kept further westward may continue
into the extended timeframe if the ridge remains in place as the
low to the west attempts to push into the Gulf further.
Along with lower precipitation chances, the QPF amounts for the
Yakutat area have likewise trended downwards as the waves moving
through stay closer to Anchorage Thursday into the weekend. The
rest of the panhandle will see clearing skies from S to N Thursday
through the start of the weekend, with Saturday looking to be the
hottest day with clear skies looking likely across the panhandle,
with the exception of the NE coastline due to the onshore flow
and cloud cover. Temperatures largely unchanged, with highs in the
50s across the north / central panhandle to the low 60s for the
southern panhandle.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue to dominate the panhandle
Tuesday evening, though residual moisture along the inner channels
could lead to a brief period of CIGs dropping to AoB 2500 ft. Also
cannot rule out the possibility of low stratus around Sumner
Strait or brief patchy fog around Sumner Strait again. Along the
outer coast, NW flow has been bringing showers to Sitka regularly
since the afternoon resulting in occasional drops in VIS down to
3sm along with gusty erratic winds. These showers are expected to
gradually diminish over the next couple of hours as a ridge
approaches the region. For Wednesday, conditions will generally be
VFR with clearing skies giving way to stout sea breeze development
by the late morning hours and into the late afternoon. No major
LLWS concerns through the period, though Skagway will likely see
strong southerly surface winds again after a brief lull
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Westerly fresh breezes (17 to
21 kts) persist overnight before turning more southwesterly and
decreasing in the outer gulf Wednesday. Along the gulf coast,
winds will turn northwesterly and follow along the coastline,
staying elevated through Wednesday and beginning to decrease into
Thursday from north to south. Highest wave heights will follow the
strongest winds, with 8 to 9 ft seas decreasing to 5 to 6 ft
through Wednesday. The stronger winds will persist longest in
Dixon Entrance, hitting fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
with 6 to 8 ft seas into Thursday. Another front moves into the
far outer gulf waters through Thursday, bringing a swath of
southerly fresh to strong breezes back to the central gulf into
Friday.
Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly
breezes (11 to 21 kts) in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal persistent
through Tuesday afternoon before finally beginning to decrease as
the sun sets. Moderate west to northwesterly breezes in Sumner and
Clarence Strait are expected to persist through Wednesday. The
rest of the inner channels are seeing relatively calm winds and
are expected to remain light through the period. 2 to 3 ft wave
heights along the stronger winds in the northern panhandle will
decrease to 1 ft or less overnight, though channel entrances along
the gulf will stay elevated through Wednesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-661>664-671.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...ZTK
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