885
FXAK68 PAFC 071428
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Message:
Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats of snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and
dangerously low wind chills through the end of the weekend. The cold
airmass will be with us well beyond the end of the short term.
...Active Warnings and Advisories...
- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northeast Kodiak
Island, including Kodiak City, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions through 3PM
this afternoon for 2 to 4 inches of additional snowfall and
continued blowing snow. Winds gusting up to 50 mph are possible for
the northern side of the island and up to 40 mph for Kodiak City.
- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.
- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts
to 50 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik Arm from
Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along the
coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.
- A Blizzard Warning has been extended through noon today for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph expected. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero possible.
- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Broad Pass, Richardson
Highway from south of Isabel Pass to Paxson, and along the Tok
Cutoff from Mentasta Pass to north of Gakona through 9PM Sunday due
to blowing snow with winds gusting to 50 mph. Wind chills dip as low
as 15 to 25 degrees below zero, falling further to 25 to 40 degrees
below zero.
Discussion:
The overall weather pattern remains mostly unchanged this morning as
an arctic airmass remains entrenched over most of Alaska.
Temperatures have fallen into the negatives across much of inland
Southcentral where calm winds and clear skies have allowed for
efficient radiational cooling. Many of the areas experiencing strong
winds have seen temperatures remaining above zero but with below
zero wind chills. The dense arctic airmass has continued to produce
strong gap flow winds through north/south oriented gaps and passes,
as has been the case the past 24-36 hrs. The strongest of these
winds have been through the Matanuska Valley where wind gusts of up
to 90 mph were reported. Strong winds were also felt along the Knik
Arm to north and west Anchorage and along the coast of the northern
Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski. These winds have subsided
somewhat this morning but are expected to pick back up later this
morning, and continuing through tonight before gradually decreasing
through Monday.
Strong winds have also created ground blizzard concerns through many
of the passes, including Broad Pass, Isabel Pass, and Thompson Pass.
Webcams indicated winds gusting to 50 mph through Thompson Pass are
still created significant blowing and drifting of snow this morning
so have extended the Blizzard Warning through noon today. These
conditions through the passes should improve later today as snow in
these areas becomes more compacted and harder to loft, and winds
gradually subside. However, gusty winds will continue to produce
dangerous wind chills heading into the workweek.
Accumulating snowfall is still ongoing over northern Kodiak Island
this morning. Moderate to heavy snowfall fell most of the night with
strong winds reducing visibilities down to under a mile. Conditions
have improved, but another shortwave trough rotating around the
parent low will bring another round of moderate snow by late morning
to early afternoon with up to several more inches of accumulating
snowfall. By Monday morning the Gulf low will start to shear apart
and move eastwards. Looking at the upcoming workweek, the weather
looks to remain cold and mostly dry, with gap winds continuing for
favorable locations.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will continue across
Southwest Alaska. Wind chills 20 to 30 below zero are expected to
continue through at least Monday. Winds will gradually diminish
through the early portions of next week. Additionally, conditions
will remain dry and mostly clear through early next week. Periods
of snow showers will continue across the southern Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians today, spreading west across the
rest of the Aleutians tonight and Monday.
With high pressure sitting over Southwest Alaska and much of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians, expected conditions to remain largely
unchanged through early/mid-week. Models are hinting at the next
front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. Though uncertainty remains, the consensus as
of now is for the front to remain mostly confined to the Western
Aleutians as the system brings some rain across the area and some
gale-force winds to the marine areas of the Western Aleutians by
early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...
The long-term pattern continues to favor mostly cold and windy
conditions across the Southern Mainland Wednesday through
Saturday. Across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN), a trough digs south over the Peninsula as a ridge builds
and amplifies northward through the Bering. As the trough crosses
the AKPEN Wednesday, northerly winds and wind gusts will be
enhanced in its wake as colder air advects in. Cold, windy, and
dry conditions also persist across Mainland through Saturday.
While the Central and Eastern Aleutians remain dry and under the
influence of ridging during the long-term period, the Western
Aleutians will be behind the ridge and under the influence of
warmer southerly to southeasterly winds. A series of weak fronts
may clip the Western Aleutians bringing light rain to the area
through the period, along with gale-froce winds across the marine
areas of the Western Aleutians. The pattern for Southcentral also
remains mostly the same with a series of Gulf lows lifting to the
central Gulf through the long-term which will help to pull winds
through the favored gaps and passes; especially Valdez Narrows,
Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and the Matanuska Valley.
Moisture from the Gulf lows looks to mainly be confined to the
northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday as the interior remains
cold, dry, and windy at times.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions along with strong northerly winds and gusts will
persist through Sunday. Wind speeds will remain relatively steady
today, with gusts to 45 mph out of the north through early this
afternoon. The strong winds will likely allow localized drifting
and blowing snow to continue. Winds to come down slightly, gusts
to 30 to 35 mph late this afternoon into Monday morning.
&&
$$
913
FXAK69 PAFG 072247
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and mainly dry conditions will continue across most areas for
the next several days. The exception will be along the North Slope
where occasional light snow showers will occur. It appears that a
weak front will try and cross the region later in the week which
could also allow for some light snow showers.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold and windy conditions continue. Blowing snow will persist
along the Dalton/Steese Highway Summits as well as the
Richardson and Parks highway in the southern slopes of the AK
Range.
- Wind diminishes tonight with nearly calm winds by Monday
afternoon.
- Ambient temperatures will drop once again tonight and tomorrow
under clear and calm conditions.
- Temperatures in the 30s and 40s below zero (with no cloud cover)
persist through much of the week. Some colder spots in the Yukon
Flats and Eastern Interior may reach 55F below zero.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy conditions persist into Monday, but gradually weaken
through the day with gusts around 10 to 20 mph by the afternoon.
- Cold and calmer weather persists thereafter with temperatures in
the single digits above/below zero along the coast, and teens to
about 30F below zero in the Interior through much of the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Cold and breezy conditions continue.
- A front brings clouds and areas of snow to the Slope and Brooks
Range on Monday and Tuesday. Light snow will persist into
Wednesday.
- Accumulations look to be around 1 inch or less along the coast
and up to 2 inches in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Persistent upper ridging continues across the Bering region with
troughing across eastern most Alaska. As a result, much of the
area can expect the current cold spell to continue for the
foreseeable future. At the surface a strong 1040 high over the
eastern Brooks Range and a 970 low in the northern Gulf will
maintain enough of gradient to keep conditions breezy into this
evening. As the surface high shifts further south and east we can
expect the winds to calm down by Monday and should remain on the
lighter side for several days. The exception will be along the
North Slope where a passing front will keep things breezy and even
produce occasional snow showers Monday into Tuesday.
Overnight temps will likely run some 15 to 20 degrees below normal
as lighter winds and clear skies allow for maximum cooling through
the middle part of the week. Should a few clouds manage to drift
overhead, these temps will moderate a bit, but should stay well
below normal as the Arctic surface high remains nearly stationary
over the eastern Interior.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended period begins with a strong ridging pattern over the
Bering Sea and weak troughing over the Eastern portion of the
state. This ridge acts as a shield for the Interior deflecting
lows attempting to move into the region to the south or north.
Model agreement is low on exactly how each weaker low pressure
system moves as it interacts with the higher pressure ridge. But
the interaction of this ridge and the trough over Eastern Alaska
likely keeps cold northwest flow aloft over the eastern half of
the state. There is a chance that a strong enough low could try
and dampen the ridge slightly and enter Northern Alaska by the end
of the week. This would bring light snow, clouds and slightly
modified temperatures, but confidence is low in this outcome.
Otherwise we anticipate mostly cold and dry conditions through the
end of the week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Gale Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Laney
724
FXAK67 PAJK 080041
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Moderate to heavy snow continues over the northern panhandle
and will continue to spread southward into central and southern
panhandle as temperatures decrease.
- Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with many
areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Wind
chills along White Pass dipping below -25 Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM... Complicated pattern through Monday with multiple
hazards, primarily delineated between the north and south
panhandle.
Overall, we have a decaying low pressure in the western gulf,
generating multiple shortwaves moving into the panhandle from the
southwest, bringing both additional waves of moisture and showers.
In Canada to the north, a deep inversion up to 700 mb is generating
strong katabatic flow out of interior passes. This arctic air is the
main element which is contributing to the very cold temperatures in
the north, and more rounds of snow for the south. At time of
writing, the arctic boundary is currently north of Petersburg over
to just south of Sitka.
For the north, very cold katabatic flow is currently generating
gusts up to 30 mph, low 20s weather with dewpoints in the low single
digits for both Haines and Skagway, the two towns mostly exposed to
the gradient direction. Currently expecting the temperature to
further drop through tomorrow from the cold pool in the Yukon
continuing to strengthen, radiative cooling from skies clearing
tomorrow morning, and present snow preventing any small amount of
solar radiation from being able to be absorbed by the ground.
Looking to see temperatures well below 0 on the Klondike Highway,
single digits in Haines and Skagway and teens in Icy Strait tonight,
dropping collectively around 10 degrees for tomorrow nights low.
This combined with strong winds, particularly on the Klondike, is
expected to cause wind chills exceeding -40 F by tomorrow night.
Several cold weather advisories have also been issued for Haines and
Juneau.
For the south, however, Monday will see a developing low move in
quickly from the southwest over southern Prince of Wales Island.
This in combination with the arctic boundary, which is expected to
drop into Sumner Strait by tomorrow morning, look to generate
moderate to strong snow rates for mainly northern Prince of Wales
Island, Wrangell, and Petersburg. Certainly a good deal of
uncertainty associated with this system, as too much cold air, or
the low pressure passing much further south than expected, will sap
any moisture pushing up from the south. As it stands now, the warm
front pushing up from the south ahead of the low will set up over
Prince of Wales Island from about Craig to Ketchikan. South of this
line is expected to be mainly rain, driven by the warm temperatures
aloft, north of this line as it pushes northward, is expected to be
either mix or snow. Therefore, the northern half of Prince of Wales
Island appears to initially be in the line of fire for this event.
Strong liquid equivalent rates possibly exceeding a tenth of an
inch and lighter winds look to keep temperatures north of the line
well below freezing.
As the low moves in, currently expecting to see the main band of
precipitation rotate to vertically to move the trowal axis to north
south, with southeasterly winds further enhancing the topographic
effects on the eastern side of the island. The big question is
whether the temperatures will be able to hold of for long enough to
stay all snow, to which cause PoW will receive warning levels of
snow. Unfortunately, confidence was not high enough for this
solution, and therefore an advisory was issued instead. This will
need to be watched carefully going forward.
For Wrangell, expecting to see outflow out of the Stikine valley
to keep at least the airport as all snow, and this location will
be highly dependent on how fast this low pressure system moves
eastward. For Petersburg, the strength of the arctic boundary
throws uncertainty into the total snow amounts, with possibly
sub-saturation keeping snow type as mainly plates with much less
accumulation. This is entirely assuming that the cold air does not
entirely evaporate any falling precipitation into Petersburg.
Ultimately, any amount of snow for any of the aforementioned areas
is expected to be roughly a 6 to 9 hour window of heaviest rates,
mainly associated with the warm push northward beginning during the
day on Monday and continuing through the evening.
.LONG TERM...An arctic boundary continues to move southward over the
southern panhandle at the start of the mid range and will likely
move south of the panhandle by mid week. Building high pressure in
NW Canada and interior Alaska is creating offshore flow and ushering
colder continental air through the northern panhandle. This air is
very cold with 850 mb temps plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range
by mid week across the northern panhandle and near -10 C over the
south. At sea level this will translate to overnight lows ranging
from single digits above or below zero for the north to teens and
20s for the south.
Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 20s for the north and into
the 30s for the south as we progress through the week. Coldest
temperatures look to occur Monday night through Wednesday night, but
sub freezing temperatures are likely to stick around into next
weekend as well. The panhandle from Icy Strait northward will be
watched closely as many locations will be approaching their
criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings
(especially the Haines and Klondike Highways) from early to mid
week. As of this forecast discussion, an extreme cold warning was
issued for the Klondike Highway from Monday night through Tuesday
morning for extremely cold temperatures with wind chills as low
as -40 degrees.
Strong outflow winds will be ushering in these frigid temperatures,
blowing along many northern panhandle channels, with gale force
winds lasting through most of the week. The strongest winds will
be located along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, with elevated
winds also coming out of Taku Inlet as well as blowing out into
the gulf from gaps along the NE gulf coast. A strong 1035 mb high
in the Yukon is the main driver of this outflow and it will persist
and strengthen to 1050 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds
out of many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to
start with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through
the week as the Yukon high expands into northern British Columbia
by late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is
bringing, a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind
chills will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.
Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows track
into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into the
southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations would likely
be earlier Tuesday, with additional accumulations will likely be
low for the mid week period. There is the possibility of a another
snow event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a couple
inches of accumulation possible but storm track is uncertain at
this time for that system.
&&
.AVIATION...Flying conditions across the panhandle today have
been very spotty depending on your location. Lots of places have
been seeing CIGs that have been VFR down to MVFR although there
has been some improvement across the NE Gulf coast and northern
panhandle as places as the snow comes to an end. The same can`t be
said for VIS as conditions range from VFR down to IFR due to the
rain and snow that is falling across the area. Generally, the
drops have been short lived during the heaviest precipitation
while otherwise remaining around 3-6 SM for the central panhandle.
Conditions across the northern panhandle are expected to continue
in a general improving trend as outflow conditions become the
more dominant weather pattern. Farther south, conditions are
expected to persist generally with the lowered CIGs as a low moves
north to near Haida Gwaii before ejecting inland into British
Columbia. After this low moves out, improving conditions are
expected at the very end of the TAF period across the southern
panhandle.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
The outside waters forecast will largely be dominated by the
outflow winds from density differences between the panhandle and
north into Canada. Strong gales to storm force winds are expected
out of interior passes, Cross Sound, and Chatham Strait for the
next 36 hours. Expecting to see an increase in winds tomorrow from
cold temperatures further being enhanced in Canada. For more
information, see the short term. For seas, expecting to see
upwards of 15 ft seas associated with winds blowing out of
interior passes for the next few days.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Expecting to see a mostly stagnant pattern over the next few days,
but an impactful one. Northerly winds in Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal,
and Taku Inlet are all expected to exceed gale to strong gale for
multiple days, with the upper arms of Glacier Bay and northern
Lynn Canal expected to see heavy freezing spray for multiple days.
Looking to see the stronger northerlies to extend south over the
next 36 hours as the Monday low/energy departs into British
Columbia. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected to stick
around for the central panhandle into mid week.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday for
AKZ318.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
AKZ319.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 PM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ319.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to noon AKST
Tuesday for AKZ320-325.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ321.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ322.
Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
AKZ325.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ326-
329.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ328.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Storm Warning for PKZ651.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-053-641>644-652-
661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ034>036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ/EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
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