103
FXAK68 PAFC 180151
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 PM AKDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...
Much of Southcentral Alaska is experiencing a late-season,
summer-like day with mostly clear skies afforded by a mid-level
ridge lifting through the region this afternoon. Adding to the
feeling of summer is synoptic southwesterly flow aiding a sea
breeze along the western Kenai Peninsula. To the east, a compact
low is moving inland southeast of Yakutat. Its front, which
extends northwest into the Copper Basin is already beginning to
shift back to the east and precipitation has cleared out of all
but the southern Copper Basin along the Edgerton Highway and the
southwestern slopes of the Wrangell Mountains. This evening will
briefly be calm and dry before a series of upper-level shortwaves
eject out of a broader longwave trough shifting east from the
Bering Sea beginning tonight.
The details of the forecast remain unresolved in the upcoming
messy pattern. However, some things are certain. In general,
expect moist southerly flow with a series of weak features
traversing the Gulf of Alaska into Southcentral. This will promote
periods of rainfall over the Gulf with upslope showers along much
of the north Gulf coast Thursday and Friday. Periods of light
rain are also possible for inland locations as more potent
shortwaves lift past the mountains. However, the timing is unclear
at this time. There is some agreement in high-resolution guidance
suggesting that rain showers could spread past the mountains
Thursday morning with the first shortwave trough in the train.
Showers may also spread inland Thursday night as a weak front
lifts past the coastal mountains. Accumulations would be fairly
light. Friday night into Saturday, more coherent low pressure
tracks across the southern Gulf, weakening the southerly flow
along the north Gulf coast or even shifting flow to weak northerly
across Southcentral. This reversal of flow will result in a
drying trend both along the coast and inland for at least some
portion of this weekend.
Quesada
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Overcast to mostly cloudy skies persist across Southwest Alaska
this afternoon due to mid-level clouds streaming in from the
southeast from a remnant area of low pressure northeast of Kodiak
Island. Farther west, a nearly stationary 984 mb low just to the
north of the Western Aleutians, with its front extending southeast
across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, and a weak
area of low pressure sitting to the south of Sand Point.
Jet level flow is mostly zonal with a mid-level shortwave lifting
northeastward from the North Pacific towards the front and a
larger upper low over the Western Aleutians. The low weakens
slightly before evolving into a complex low, which keeps showery
and windy conditions in place for the near term. By late
Wednesday, the shortwave reinvigorates the front and increases
rainfall coverage from the Pribilof Islands southward to Cold Bay.
Most of the operational models have the complex low moving
eastward across the central Bering and Pribilof Islands Thursday
morning. This feature lingers across the eastern Bering through
Friday afternoon, keeping low impact weather as the main story for
much of the western domain through the end of the short term.
-AM/ER
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
Upper level low pressure is expected to linger in the Gulf of
Alaska from the weekend through mid-week. Shortwave troughs and
embedded surface lows will bring enhanced periods of rain and wind
to the north Gulf coast. The heaviest rain and strongest winds
look to stay in the Panhandle, but Prince William Sound and the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula will see plenty of moisture and wind in
coastal waters as well. There is some uncertainty in the
orientation of the low as it progresses through the beginning of
the week, which will greatly impact the ability for showers to
develop across inland areas. The suggestion of southwesterly
upper level flow would be favorable for precipitation up Cook
Inlet and into the Mat-Su Valleys, though rain should remain
relatively light in these areas if it does develop.
Persistent northerly flow across western Alaska and the Bering
Sea will bring a cooling trend to the region as overnight lows are
expected to dip into the 30`s for portions of southwest Alaska.
The combination of cold air advection and a tight pressure
gradient will bring gusty winds through gaps and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians on Sunday and Monday. The
Aleutian Chain will see another round of rain and wind on Tuesday
while the rest of Southwest remains dry for the remainder of the
long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
northwesterly winds this afternoon will shift to the southeast as
winds out of Turnagain Arm develop and move over the terminal.
Occasional gusts around 20 kts are possible late tonight through
early Thursday morning before diminishing. A stray shower is also
possible early Thursday morning. Any precipitation that does
develop looks to be be very light with ceilings remaining VFR.
&&
$$
229
FXAK69 PAFG 172256
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A closed low working north along the Alcan Border today will
continue to bring a steady band of rain to the Central/Eastern
Interior today into tonight, lifting north through the Brooks
Range and onto the North Slope tonight and Thursday. So far today,
Eagle has already picked up 0.58" of rain and counting. Rain
showers will continue to spread into the Central Interior this
afternoon into tonight, with the bulk of heaviest precipitation
staying east of Fairbanks. Colder air further north combined with
wrap around bands of moisture around the low and northerly upslope
flow into the Brooks Range will support a mix of rain and snow
further north, ultimately changing over to predominant snow
throughout the day Thursday. Should the transition over to snow
prove quicker or slower than expected, this would lead to locally
higher or lower totals across the eastern Arctic Coast. Overall,
the bulk of snowfall is expected to be in the Brooks Range east of
Anaktuvuk Pass and east of Prudhoe Bay along the Arctic Coast.
Winds will see an uptick as the low works its way north, leading
to areas of blowing snow at times further northeast. The Western
Interior and West Coast will continue to remain quiet and mostly
dry outside of isolated showers around Southwest Alaska to the
Seward Peninsula.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered showers this afternoon and evening as a steady band
of rain lifts north along the Alcan Border through the Eastern
Interior.
- Showers continue into Thursday morning before drying out
through the afternoon with mixed sun and clouds.
- Partly to mostly sunny later in the day Thursday into Friday
ahead of increasing clouds building in Friday night into
Saturday.
- Highs in the 40s/50s today, warming to the 50s/60s for Thursday
and Friday, ahead of a gradual cooldown starting this weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and mostly dry conditions continue, with isolated showers
across Southwest Alaska to the Seward Peninsula.
- Mix of sun and clouds across the Western Interior and Coast
through the weekend.
- Highs in the 40s/50s through Saturday, ahead of a gradual
cooldown starting early next week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Steady band of precipitation continues working north along the
Alcan Border into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern
Arctic Plains with a mix of rain, snow, and breezy winds.
- Mix of rain and snow transitioning to predominant snow
especially further east tonight and throughout the day Thursday.
- QPF totals tonight into Thursday along and east of the Dalton
Highway around 0.25-1.00" with drier conditions favored further
west.
- Snow Accumulations Tonight to Thursday Night:
- 2-4" along the Dalton Highway from MM220 to Sagwon
- 2-4" along the Eastern Arctic Coast east of Prudhoe Bay,
locally higher/lower dependent on rain/snow transition.
- 5-10" across higher elevations of the Brooks Range east of the
Dalton Highway.
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers continue Friday
through the weekend with lighter overall amounts expected.
- Highs remain steady in the 30s/40s into early next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a closed low lifting
north along the Alcan Border, supporting scattered to widespread
precipitation across the Central/Eastern Interior today that will
lift north through the Brooks Range and onto the North Slope later
today into Thursday. Rain will continue to lift north later today
into tonight as progressively drier conditions return to the
Interior. As moisture lifting north encounters a colder airmass
over the Arctic, this will support a rain/snow mix in the Brooks
Range/eastern Arctic Plains transitioning to predominant snow
tonight into Thursday. Colder air further north combined with wrap
around bands of moisture around the low and northerly upslope
flow into the Brooks Range will support a mix of rain and snow,
ultimately changing over to predominant snow throughout the day
Thursday. Should the transition over to snow prove quicker or
slower than expected, this would lead to locally higher or lower
totals across the eastern Arctic Coast. As the low moves over the
ocean on Thursday, it will strengthen and bring northwest/west
winds along the coast with gusts of 20 to 35 mph beginning on
Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Strongest winds will
then shift to being out of the north along the West Coast south
to the northern Bering Sea by Friday as north/northwest winds
continue along the Arctic Coast.
Overall with this system, the bulk of snowfall is expected to be
in the Brooks Range east of Anaktuvuk Pass and east of Prudhoe Bay
along the Arctic Plains. Winds will see an uptick as the low
works its way north, leading to areas of blowing snow at times
further northeast. Our latest snowfall expectations remain right
in line with the HREF ensemble mean, showing a broad 2-4" along
the Dalton Highway from MM220 to Sagwon, 2-4" along the Eastern
Arctic Coast east of Prudhoe Bay, and 5-10" across higher
elevations of the Brooks Range east of the Dalton Highway. Have
expanded our Special Weather Statement for snow amounts to include
the Eastern Brooks Range north to the Arctic Coast to account for
higher overall snow totals in the latest forecast.
Otherwise, generally quiet weather will persist over Northern
Alaska heading into the weekend with only minor rain or snow
chances. Temperatures will be near normal heading into the
weekend, ahead of a gradual cooldown for early next week as a
broad troughing pattern encompasses the state.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday through next Wednesday.
Ensemble model agreement remains good through the extended
period, showing a series of closed lows working east through the
Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend as a broad
troughing pattern encompasses the state. This overall unsettled
pattern will keep isolated to scattered showers going across
Northern Alaska this weekend into early next week as temperatures
see a cooling trend across the board. Precipitation amounts during
this time frame continue to look light overall, with limited
organization helping to keep rain and snow chances light and
showery in nature.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&
$$
MacKay
249
FXAK67 PAJK 180005
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 PM AKDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SHORT TERM.../ through Thursday night / Old low jumping inland to
Yukon Territory, and quick building ridge over the panhandle
aiding the burst of winds northwards from the Juneau area to
Haines and Skagway. Rain continues over the northern third. The
southern panhandle is down to showers this evening although a
trough is approaching the southern panhandle and will spread an
area of rain back in overnight that will continue Thursday.
.LONG TERM...Through the rest of the week and into the weekend,
systems will continue to bring rain across the panhandle with
little to no breaks between systems. The precipitation amounts are
looking to be impactful due to the longer duration of moderate to
heavy rainfall. EFIs are showing an increasing trend of
confidence of extreme precipitation as the systems move through.
This is also something to keep an eye on moving forward due to
indications of it being a potential AR event from Thursday night through
Sunday. GEFS and EC AR guidance shows potential for a moderate AR
event that will be long duration with a lower peak in IVT. Models
still are showing a bit of spread in the precipitation amounts
across the panhandle, and are not fully aligned on where the
higher IVT values will impact, with the GEFS bringing it more
southward to the coast of British Columbia while the EC has it
approaching closer to the southern panhandle.
Overall expecting 2 to 3 inches across the northern Gulf coast in 24
hours Thursday, and around 1 inch for the rest of the panhandle. As
it moves to impact the rest of the panhandle, Friday into Saturday,
the 24 hour totals for the central and southern panhandle will be
between 2 and 3 inches as well. The highest rates are expected to be
Friday into Saturday afternoon, with areas in the central panhandle
(Juneau, Sitka, and Petersburg) having a 40 to 50% chance of
exceeding 3 inches by midday Saturday when using the NBM 5.0 and 4.3
probabilities. The southern panhandle, particularly around
Ketchikan, may be somewhere to watch closely as guidance begins to
narrow down on precipitation values for this time frame, as NBM
probabilities show a 60% chance of exceeding 3 inches in 24 hours, a
30 to 40% chance of exceeding 4 inches, and a 15% chance of
exceeding 5 inches in 24 hours. The most 24 hour accumulation Friday
afternoon through Saturday afternoon is expected to be between 2.5
and 3 inches, though higher amounts may be expected if the IVT
values are directed more along the southern panhandle on the 20th.
Winds in these upcoming systems are expected to be at most high end
gales, with the majority of the increased winds to be along the
outer Gulf coastline, particularly the northern Gulf coast on
Thursday night. Early next week, beginning to see the potential
for hurricane force winds moving into the eastern portion of the
gulf.
&&
.AVIATION...Remnants of a storm force low continue to push
northward out of the panhandle. Strong surface wind gusts up to
35-50 knots are expected to continue in Skagway, Haines, and
Juneau through this afternoon and into the early evening. MVFR and
pockets of IFR conditions will persist this evening and overnight
with rain showers from onshore flow. Tomorrow morning, while some
scattered VFR pockets may emerge in the southern panhandle,
widespread MVFR conditions are expected to continue, particularly
from Sitka northwards with CIGs generally AoB 2500 ft. LLWS
remains a concern through this evening for areas experiencing
strong surface winds, such as Juneau and the northern panhandle.
&&
.MARINE...Outside Waters (Gulf and Coastal waters)...Low from
earlier Wednesday jumping inland east of Yakutat, Another front
beginning to move across the gulf and this will push band of gale
towards the coast late Thursday and Friday.
Inside Waters (Inner Channels)...Winds remain elevated with gales
to strong gales being reported with storm force gusts. There have
been a few local reports of storm force winds, particularly along
Lynn Canal. Wind decreasing to 20 - 25 kt tonight and into
Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Weather pattern continues on the wet track primarily
for the southern portion of the panhandle. A flood watch 4 to 6
inches of rain from Thursday night to Saturday evening. We will
continue to monitor the situation and will be making adjustments
as needed.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ317.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ320>322-324-325.
Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday evening for
AKZ326-328>332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-643-663-664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032>036-053-641-642-644-651-652-
661-662-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino/Bezenek
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek
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