515
FXAK68 PAFC 201316
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...
The upper level trough will continue to become more negatively
tilted today while slowly progressing northeastward. Heavy rain
across the Kenai Peninsula and Susitna Valley is shifting back
north and east. A Flood Warning remains in effect for Seward, but
so far river gauges have yet to rise significantly past action
stage. A Flood Advisory is in effect for the Yentna River for
minor flooding of low lying areas along the river. In addition to
the aforementioned areas where flooding is expected, other areas
to closely watch for potential minor flooding include the
southwestern Kenai (Anchor River), other rivers and streams in the
Susitna Valley, and Anchorage (for urban flooding as rain spreads
back in this morning). The upper trough will weaken as it
continues north and east tonight through Tuesday. The upper jet
(and atmospheric river) will also weaken with time. As a result,
expand a narrow band of much lighter rain to spread across the the
Copper River Basin Monday night through Tuesday morning.
There will be a brief break in rainfall behind the upper trough
(24 hours or less) before the next storm approaches from the
Bering Sea in continued progressive flow aloft. Rain will reach
Kodiak Island Monday night, then overspread much of Southcentral
by Tuesday afternoon. The forecast has shifted slightly to
multiple storms slowly tracking from the Bering into the Interior.
Thus, rather than two periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, it
may be continuous rain starting late Tuesday and continuing
through sometime on Thursday. Ridging still looks on track to
develop starting Friday.
-SEB/CJ
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:Today through Thursday morning)...
The cool and wet summer across Southwest Alaska continues through
the short-term period. Expect showers to continue for today,
especially this afternoon and evening across the Southwestern
Mainland. Some instability could build today with a few breaks in
the cloud cover. Showers could then tap into this extra
instability and become more robust at times than they otherwise
would be. The lightning threat is low (10%) for this afternoon
into the evening.
Showery activity today across Southwest all precedes the next
widespread rainmaker which comes in the form of a low currently in
the western Bering. This low moves east-southeast through today
with the front reaching the Pribilof Islands and and
Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by late this morning. Steady rain then
moves to the Southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) starting this
afternoon. Rain advances up the AKPEN and makes it to Coastal
Southwest by overnight tonight/early Tuesday morning. Rain then
moves inland across Southwest from the coast through the rest of
Tuesday. Expect a push of southeasterly winds associated with the
front Tuesday morning through into Tuesday afternoon For Kuskokwim
and Bristol Bays before wins turn southwesterly through the rest
of Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts up to 40 to 45mph are
likely along the northern Kuskokwim Bay Coast Tuesday morning
with 35 mph for Bristol Bay. Bristol Bay will see the strongest
corridor of southwest winds, up to 30 mph through the Bay Tuesday
afternoon into early Wednesday before winds briefly diminish ahead
of the next system to move into Southwest on Wednesday. In
addition to the gusty winds Tuesday across Kuskokwim and Bristol
Bays, expect larger waves of around 10 ft in the coastal waters of
Kuskokwim Bay with 7 to 9 ft for Bristol Bay.
Yet another system will impact Southwest with more winds and more
rain for Wednesday as this system first gets its act together
over the Kamchatka Peninsula. This system will then move east and
into the western Bering by Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy
rain along with gale-force southwesterlies are likely across the
Western Aleutians Tuesday. The corridor of southwest gales moves
to the coastal waters of Adak/Atka and the open central Bering by
Wednesday morning. Rain also spreads east to the Pribilof Islands
by early Wednesday morning and to Adak/Atka by late Wednesday
morning.
The heaviest rain will stay north with the "fire hose" pointed at
Southwest Alaska. Heavy rain makes it to the coast by late
Wednesday morning with light to moderate rain spreading inland
before that. Between Tuesday morning to Thursday morning as much
as 1 to 2.5 inches of rain looks to fall across the AKPEN and
Mainland Southwest Alaska. The higher-end totals will be along the
Bristol Bay coast as well as along the mountain ranges of
interior Bristol Bay, including the Western Alaska Range and
Northern Aleutian Range. Lower-end totals are likely across
Kuskokwim Bay due to being outside of the best moisture axis,
especially for Tuseday`s system. Rainfall totals decrease towards
the Southern AKPEN and Eastern/Central Aleutians. Stay tuned to
forecast updates regarding rainfall amounts; any small changes in
storm tracks for Tuesday and Wednesday could have implications on
where the best moisture axes set up. For now, the best location
for heavy rains Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be across Bristol
Bay with Tuesday being the wettest of the two days. Wednesday will
be the wettest day for the Kuskokwim Delta, Kuskokwim Valley, and
along the Western Alaska Range.
Aside from the heavy rain, southwesterly small-craft winds will
also be brought back into Kuskokwim and Bristol Bays. Depending on
how strong the pressure gradient will be between the storm center
that will be in the vicinity of Nunivak/Saint Matthew Islands by
Wednesday afternoon, and a strong ridge to the south in the North
Pacific, will dictate if sustained gales can reach into Bristol
Bay. Right now, there is a 50% chance of that occurring. Much like
the storm for late tonight/Tuesday, expect waves of 8 to 10 ft
into Kuskokwim and Bristol Bays for Wednesday. Wave heights will
slowly subside Wednesday night into Thursday as the southwest
fetch weakens. Rain will also taper to showers from northwest-to-
southeast beginning Wednesday evening with the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and eventually across Bristol Bay for Thursday morning.
Steady rain will still be in place along the Western Alaska Range
Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
A pattern change is in the works during the long term period next
week. An upper low and front will be progressing through interior
Alaska on Thursday. Behind this feature forecast models are in
somewhat good agreement with the development of a building ridge
of high pressure over the southern Bering on Friday. The ridge
amplifies further over the weekend. For Southcentral, northerly
flow behind the departing upper low and trough will bring in drier
conditions and a potential break from persistent rain chances
over the state. High pressure over the Bering will favor drier
conditions as well. The one caveat will be the potential for
smaller shortwave disturbances to ride over the top of the ridge
and into Southwest Alaska with renewed rain chances on Sunday.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The upper level trough associated with the atmospheric
river will push through today, bringing moderate rain with it.
Ceilings and vis are likely to drop to MVFR and IFR at times
during moderate rain. Turnagain winds should be done for the day
becoming westerly later in the day followed by up-inlet this
evening.
&&
$$
532
FXAK69 PAFG 192210
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather continue across Western Alaska today while the
eastern half of the state experiences a warming & drying trend as
an upper-level ridge over Eastern Alaska reinforces southerly
Chinook flow over the state. Southerly gap winds through the
Alaska Range Passes have continued to gust upwards of around 55 to
70 mph today, which will gradually weaken from this evening
through Monday morning. Out west, a low sitting around Bristol Bay
will support continuous rain showers along the coast well into
next week. By Tuesday, the ridge over Eastern Alaska starts to
break down and allows for southwest flow to set up over the state.
With this new pattern, an increase in thunderstorm activity &
widespread rain showers across the Interior become likely. In the
meantime, we are continuing to monitor the development of another
low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea for the latter half
of the week for minor coastal impacts & high surf due to gusty
WSW winds. There is high uncertainty with the track of this
system, however, with the models placing the track anywhere
between the Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta. We will publish
necessary updates through the week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming temperatures into the mid 70s/low 80s this afternoon
with low to mid 80s on Monday and some upper 80s in the Yukon
Flats. Temperatures cool back into the 60s and 70s again on
Tuesday.
- There has been a brief lull in thunderstorm activity today with
chances returning Monday and Tuesday afternoon in the Eastern
Interior and north towards the Eastern Brooks Range.
- Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes and Delta
Junction continued today with gusts upwards of around 55 to 70
mph. Winds will gradually diminish this evening into Monday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Widespread continuous showers are expected through early next
week with the highest rainfall totals in the YK Delta, southern
Seward Peninsula, & Kobuk Valleys. Rainfall totals between 0.25
to 0.50 inches, with locally higher amounts near 0.75" possible
through Tuesday.
- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over
the extreme northern Seward Peninsula & western Brooks Range,
shifting southward to encompass the entire Seward Peninsula by
Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances diminish from Tuesday,
onward.
- Another low making its way into the Bering Sea for the latter
half of next week may support additional widespread showers &
breezy winds across Western Alaska. Minor coastal impacts are
possible, primarily high surf. (See the coastal section for
additional information)
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in store for
the Western Brooks Range & Western Arctic Plains for this
afternoon. Shower & thunderstorm coverage shifts southeastward
for Monday through Tuesday.
- Temperatures warm through early next week with 70s to near 80F
possible in the Arctic Plains. Cooler temperatures in the
50s/60s are expected along coastal areas through midweek.
- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop
during the evenings & overnights along the Arctic Coast into
next week.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The ongoing forecast remains on track with troughing out west and
ridging building in the east. Wedged in between is southerly
chinook flow over the AK Range and Brooks Range. Western Alaska
will remain cool and wet for the foreseeable future as several
shortwave troughs and weak low pressure systems move through from
south to north. Wind through the AK Range Passes and in Delta
Junction have been around 50 to 60 mph and will peak tonight.
North of both ranges we are expecting significantly warmer
temperatures in the 70s and 80s with the warmest spots being in
the Yukon Flats where high temperatures approach 90 degrees on
Monday. In addition to warming temperatures, we will see an
increase in thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday in the
Interior and Brooks Range as a front lifts northward. This front
will cool things down significantly from Tuesday onward, bringing
a persistent cool and wet pattern once again. On the North Slope,
it will remain warm through the middle of the week but the broad
scale troughing will win out by the end of the week, cooling
things down significantly and bringing more active weather.
Overall, the summer-like weather on the North Slope and in the
Central/Eastern Interior will be short-lived as cooler and wetter
weather prevails towards the middle and end of the week. The West
Coast will continue to see areas of rain/showers with cool
temperatures. One thing we will be monitoring, which will be
elaborated on in the Extended Discussion and Coastal Hazard
section below, is the potential Bering Sea low by the end of the
week. Significant impacts are not expected but minor coastal
impacts/high surf and heavy rain/gusty winds appear to be on the
agenda right now.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With broad troughing to the west and ridging to the east, strong
southerly flow continues to work over the Alaska Range. Warmer and
dry conditions are expected for areas just north of the Alaska Range
with strong gusty winds up to 65 mph expected through the passes and
up to 55 mph in Delta Junction. Peak observed gusts so far today
have been up to 62 mph in the passes and 53 mph at Delta. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for this region tonight into Monday.
Another round of southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes is
expected late Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Temperatures have already begun warming across the Interior north to
the Arctic Coast, which are expected to peak on Monday as highs
climb well into the 70s/80s. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
Monday for the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country for highs around 85-
90F and the Arctic Plains for highs up to around 80F. Minimum RHs
through Monday will drop to around 25-35% across much of the
Interior north to the Brooks Range and Central Arctic Plains, with
improvement expected Tuesday onwards. There is a limited overlap of
critical wind and low RH expected, with elevated conditions possible
where the warmest and dries conditions overlap with breezy winds.
Dry conditions across the Interior today through Monday morning with
will give way to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
lifting north along a NW to SE oriented front that will build in
Monday afternoon and shift north on Tuesday. The best thunderstorm
chances Monday afternoon and evening will be from the Upper Tanana
Valley northwest to the Central Brooks Range, with isolated activity
continuing Monday night for the Yukon Flats and Brooks Range.
Tuesday is shaping up to see the highest thunderstorm coverage
across the Yukon Flats north through the Brooks Range, peaking
during the afternoon and evening.
Across Western Alaska, isolated to scattered showers and very
isolated thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with heavy
precipitation expected in the Western Alaska Range. A closed low
moving into Southwest Alaska on Tuesday will bring steadier rain for
the Y-K Delta and Southwest Interior north to the Seward Peninsula.
Looking ahead, a coastal storm is expected to move into Western
Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread precipitation and
gusty winds moving across all of Northern Alaska mid to late week.
Colder temperatures will accompany this system as widespread highs
in the 50s/60s return, with locally colder conditions farther north.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Wednesday afternoon an approximately 540 decameter closed off low
will move towards St. Lawrence Island. Accompanying this low will be
gusty winds, heavy rain, and minor coastal concerns. The 12z model
guidance is in good agreement that the surface low should be around
990 mbs. This would allow for wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph being
possible across the West Coast and Western Interior. Attached to the
low pressure system, a stout atmospheric river will also be pushed
into the West Coast. This additional moisture could produce
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the West Coast. As the
low moves east on Thursday, this rain will move east and north
towards the Brooks Range and Eastern Interior.
Looking towards the weekend there is large model uncertainty
regarding the pattern. A ridge axis extending north into the
Interior from the North Pacific High is the source of this
uncertainty. Depending on the strength of the ridge axis would
dictate how far into the Interior an arctic trough is able to dig
southwards. This arctic trough will move onto the North Slope
Saturday morning, bringing very cold 850mb temperatures. These
temperatures are introducing the possibility of light to moderate
snowfall in the Brooks Range on Saturday and Sunday. If the ridge
axis is on the weaker side than snow chances could be possible in
the higher terrain of the Interior. On the flip side of that if the
ridge holds than it would just be more rain.
&&
.Coastal Hazard Potential...
We have issued a Special Weather Statement for potential coastal
impacts later this week from a Bering Sea storm. The main things
we are monitoring are the track and strength of the storm but
there is uncertainty with both of these. The good news is, the
storm doesnt look to intensify too much and impacts should be
minor. The West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should
monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/afg to stay aware of
potential impacts from this storm.
Current coastal flood guidance is hinting at high surf and
potentially minor flooding. Fortunately, significant impacts are
not expected. We will continue to update as necessary.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
Heat Advisory for AKZ833-835.
Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Chambers
Key Messages...Chambers
Forecast Analysis and Discussion...Bianco
Fire Weather Discussion...MacKay
Extended Forecast Discussion...Dennis
Coastal Hazard Potential... Bianco
341
FXAK67 PAJK 201313
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
513 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Mostly clear skies across the interior with widespread dry
conditions Monday.
- A front will bring a few showers for Yakutat and possibly into
northern panhandle Monday night into Tuesday.
- Increasing forecast confidence of another round of warm
temperatures through midweek, especially across the southern
panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ A fairly quiet short range
forecast with a few exceptions. Currently most areas of the
panhandle are seeing clear skies due to just enough offshore flow
to keep the marine layer clouds at bay for now. Not everywhere is
clear however. Some marine layer clouds have invaded the Cross
Sound and Western Icy Strait area up to Lemesurier Island, and the
NE gulf coast is under cloud cover from around the Alsek River
westward.
It is the low level flow and cloud cover that will have the most
effect on the short range forecast for the next few days. For most
of Monday, ridging over the eastern gulf will be just sharp
enough that the low level flow on the east side of it will display
a slight offshore component over the panhandle. This will lead to
continued mostly clear skies and warm temperatures for most
areas. Hyder is still under a heat advisory for high temperatures
reaching into the low 80s this afternoon, and several areas in the
south will be getting into the mid to high 70s. Sea breezes will
be common this afternoon with some being as strong as 15 to 20 kt.
Areas W of Cape Fairweather will be the exception with cloud
cover and cooler temps likely continuing as they are west of the
ridge axis and thus have more onshore flow.
This overall pattern will gradually change into Tuesday as a weak
front pushes in from the W and the gulf ridge flattens. The
offshore flow will be switching to onshore (mainly over the
northern half of the panhandle) allowing the marine layer clouds
to push further inland late Monday night and Tuesday night. In
addition the weak front will be bringing the possibility of light
rain to Yakutat Monday night, and a slight chance of rain for the
northern half Tuesday. This front will also bring some breezy
conditions to the outer coast and northern inner channels in it`s
wake Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The southern half of
the panhandle meanwhile will be far enough east that low level
flow will largely stay slightly offshore enough that clouds are
not expected to invade the inner channels through at least Tuesday
night (though the western coasts of Prince of Wales and Baranof
islands will likely still see marine layer clouds reappear Monday
night and Tuesday night). This will lead to continued warm and dry
weather for most of the south, though Tuesday is not expected to
be as warm as Monday due to more a more marine influenced air mass
moving in.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday brings us
back to our regularly scheduled programing with rain chances
looking to increase late in the evening or overnight across much
of the northern panhandle. A surface low looks to spin up coming
off the Aleutians and travel along the north gulf coast through
the beginning of the week, bringing this rain we are expecting.
Then, general onshore flow is expected to bring wetter conditions,
working their way southward, through the end of the week. Winds
are expected to be the most impactful with Skagway, currently
expected to reach 15-20mph S, but otherwise most other communities
can expect lighter winds.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions for the panhandle this Monday
with a marine layer just offshore from the coast. While during the
day, VFR conditions are expected to continue for all TAF sites
with standard diurnal sea breezes, overnight, the marine layer is
expected to make a resurgence in near the outer coast. Confidence
is low if this marine layer will move over land by late this
evening, though problem areas will likely only be western Prince
of Wales Island, Yakutat, and Elfin Cove area. If this marine
layer does indeed move in, could see low MVFR conditions to high
IFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer Waters: The sharp ridge along the southeast alaska coastline
continues through the next few days, with northwesterly flow along
the coastline and southerly to southeasterly flow along the
northern gulf. An incoming upper level trough is bringing just
enough lift for low clouds and fog in the gulf waters, with
multiple bouys currently fully saturated. After todays trough
moves over the panhandle, the surface ridge is expected to
strengthen further, letting winds exceed 20 knots almost anywhere
along the coastline and being seas greater than 6 ft.
Inner Waters: The upper level trough moving over the panhandle
will move into Canada during the afternoon timeframe. With upper
level dynamics, leeside and thermal troughing, along with a
building ridge in the eastern gulf, westerly to northwesterly channels
are expected to pick late this morning and through the evening.
Icy Strait is the big highlight, with winds exceeding 25 knots
from the west. As the ridge in the eastern gulf builds on Tuesday,
inner channels winds south of Icy Strait are expected to increase
up to 20-25 knots in exposed channels, such as Stephens Passage
and Clarence Strait.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM AKDT this evening
for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-641>644-661>664.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...NC
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