110
FXAK68 PAFC 241259
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Light rain will linger along the western Alaska Range and western
Susitna Valley through mid-morning before tapering off by late
morning. Elsewhere across Southcentral will remain on the drier
side, with the exception of the Wrangell Mountains in the eastern
Copper Basin, who will see light showers over the next couple of
days. Temperatures today will remain around normal in the 60`s and
upper 50`s along the coast. A series of easterly waves will move
across Southcentral over the next few days, pulling warmer air
from Interior Canada and bringing a warming trend to the Mainland.
Temperatures will climb into the low 70`s for inland areas on
Thursday. By Friday, temperatures inland will reach into the
mid-70`s with upper 60`s to low 70`s for coastal areas, including
Anchorage. Warming temperatures and clearing skies will allow for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Susitna
Valley and the Copper River Basin for Friday. There is some
uncertainty on the full potential of thunderstorms for Friday with
the possibility of more or less thunderstorms depending on how
much instability arises and the coverage of lingering cloud cover.
KM/JAR
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Friday)...
Widespread moderate, wetting rainfall continues across the
western Alaska Range through mid-morning leading to rising water
levels along the Stony River and other tributaries flowing out of
the Alaska Range. Rainfall intensity decreases by early this
afternoon as precipitation pushes south into Bristol Bay as the
upper level shortwave stalls along the Alaska Range and the low in
the Gulf begins to slowly drift eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge and low level thermal trough and
axis of instability will be nearly stationary from the Kuskokwim
Mountains north and west across portions of the Y-K Delta. Expect
an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
for these areas, with a repeat expected on Thursday. While the
greatest instability will be inland, storm motion will steer
showers and thunderstorms southwestward toward the coast.
For Friday, an upper level short-wave and surface frontal system
extending from a low in the Bering Sea will approach Southwest AK.
This will likely lead to a narrow band of showers and possibly
some thunderstorms over Southwest. The position of this is hard to
pinpoint right now.
Across the Bering Sea and the Aleutians, the upper level low
currently south of the western Aleutians tracks north into the
southern Bering by tonight as it becomes vertically stacked with
its attendant surface low. While the low will not get much
stronger, a series of short- waves with abundant moisture from the
Pacific will lift northward across the Aleutian chain and into
the southern Bering through today. This will lead to periods of
rain, heaviest from around Nikolski to Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. Also
expect some gusty southeast winds ahead of a surface frontal
system. The low will weaken over the central Bering through
Friday. Fog and low clouds will remain a threat in areas not
impacted by the stronger winds with this system.
-SEB/JH
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...
The long-term pattern continues to look unsettled across the
Bering Sea, Aleutian Chain, and across the Southern Mainland. A
low in the Bering Sea spreads showers along the Aleutian Chain to
the Southern Alaska Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. This system
also brings showery conditions to Southwest Alaska by Sunday
afternoon. At the same time, weak upper-level shortwaves lift
northward from the Gulf of Alaska and across Southcentral Alaska.
This will help produce showers across the Southcentral Interior
Saturday and Sunday; namely the Copper River Basin and Susitna
Valley. There could be enough instability in place Saturday and
Sunday afternoon across the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley
to produce a few lightning strikes in more robust showery
activity. There airmass across Southwest Alaska looks to be more
stable than that across portions of Southcentral, therefore,
lightning strikes are less of a threat there.
For Monday, the Bering low that brought showers across the Bering
Sea, Aleutians, and Mainland Southwest Saturday through Monday,
now sends it energy into Southcentral by Monday evening.
Therefore, expect showery conditions to continue across much of
Southcentral Monday evening through much of Tuesday.
Back to the west, a stronger North Pacific low and front push
sustained southeasterly gale-force winds with storm-force gusts
into the Western Aleutians and western Bering by Monday morning.
Also accompanying this system will be moderate to heavy rain at
times. Rain and gusty winds move to Adak/Atka by Monday afternoon
and evening and to Unalaska/Nikolski by Tuesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Southerly
winds this morning will become westerly by late morning.
&&
$$
726
FXAK69 PAFG 241330
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
530 AM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The front that triggered scattered thunderstorms across the
Interior yesterday has stalled over the area from the the middle
Kuskokwim Valley to the Eastern Brooks Range. On the northwest
side of the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop with an
emphasis on the area from the Central Brooks Range near Bettles,
to near Tanana and southwest into the lower Yukon Valley. Behind
the front, conditions will be cooler. Thursday, the Interior will
begin to warm back up with another chance for wet thunderstorms
in the southeast Interior.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop across the
North Central Interior as a front stalls across the Tanana
Valley and Yukon Flats. These storms are capable of producing
prolific lightning, moderate to heavy rain, small hail, and
gusty winds.
- Moderate to heavy rain continues to impact the Western Alaska
Range this morning, but will taper off through the day. Rivers
will see rising water levels, but flooding is not expected.
- Thursday, thunderstorms will again develop in the Northern
Interior during the afternoon. In the southeast Interior,
showers and thunderstorms could bring 0.10 to 0.25 inches of
rain to a wide area.
- Temperatures will have a gradual warming trend through Friday.
Maximum daytime temperatures should be near 80 for most of the
Interior by Friday although the Upper Tanana Valley remains
slightly more moderate, closer to 70.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures in the Western Interior will be warm, highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s are expected to continue through the
latter half of the week with cooler temps along the Coast.
- Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible in the Lower Yukon
and Middle Kuskokwim Valleys through Friday.
- Low stratus clouds and fog in the Bering have settled around St.
Lawrence Island, and will continue to creep into the Norton
Sound and Bering Strait through the day Wednesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures along the North Slope and in the Northern Brooks
Range valleys will see highs in the 60s or low 70s Wednesday.
Temperatures begin a cooling trend on Thursday, with max
temperatures along the Coast staying below 40F on Friday.
- Isolated thunderstorm will form in the Central and Eastern
Brooks range on Wednesday and Thursday as a cold front stalls
over the area.
- A trough brings strong southwesterly winds into the Western
Arctic Coast on Wednesday. Winds will turn from westerly to
northerly on Thursday as the trough exits to the northeast.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The main weather maker for Wednesday will be a shortwave trough
spanning across the Interior which is extending out from a 554
decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska. The band of vorticity
associated with the shortwave is stretched from the western Alaska
Range to the Eastern Brooks Range. A 565 dam upper-level high
over the Western half of the state is keeping the Western and
Northern regions of our area clear and dry. The band of vorticity
will lose its steam and begin to stall over the Interior today as
it becomes separated from the low in the Gulf. However, it will
linger as it gets stretched between the low in the Gulf and a
trough in the Arctic. As a result, we will see support for
thunderstorms in a diagonal band across the Interior today on the
western side of the feature, which should continue into Thursday.
Surface high pressure in the Bering is pulling fog and low stratus
into St Lawrence Island and toward the Seward Peninsula.
On Thursday, after the low in the Gulf deepens slightly, it will
bring another round of moderate precipitation into the southeast
Interior. Current totals look to be between 0.10 and 0.25 inches
to the Upper Tanana and Fortymile. Two new features will arrive to
keep things active as well: an arctic low begins to edge closer
to the Arctic Coast and a low from the North Pacific moves into
the Bering Sea. The arctic trough will send a shortwave across the
North Slope on Thursday bringing chances for light rain along with
it. Otherwise, its influence will be felt in cooler temperatures
north of the Brooks Range and stronger winds along the Western
Arctic Coast. The low in the Bering will have minimal impact until
it starts to get closer to shore, but it will direct some energy
and moisture into the southwest Interior on Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Following widespread moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms across
the Southern Interior and Alaska Range yesterday with prolific
lightning, that front is expected to stall over the Central Interior
today as best shower and thunderstorm chances shift to being from
the Lower/Middle Yukon northeast to the Eastern Seward Peninsula,
Upper Kuskokwim, and Brooks Range. Farther east, drier air has
already begun to take hold with drier conditions expected today.
Another easterly wave over the Alaska Range will bring in another
round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday,
with a focus east of Fairbanks as showers and storms continue to
develop along that aforementioned active corridor on Wednesday.
Outside of the Interior where daily showers and thunderstorms
persist, warm and dry conditions will continue along the West Coast,
NW Interior, and North Slope, with afternoon RHs driest in the NW
Interior and Western Brooks Range around 20-30%.
Looking ahead towards Friday and the weekend, broad upper level
troughing will continue to build in out of the Bering Sea which will
support increasingly scattered to widespread daily precipitation
chances, cooler temperatures, and improving humidity across Northern
Alaska as we finish out the month of June. Details on this will come
into focus over the coming days so stay tuned.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Through Tuesday and Wednesday morning, thunderstorms have brought
heavy rainfall to the Southern Interior, with northwesterly flow
hitting the Alaska Range, helping to drive efficient rainfall.
Over the past 36 hours, much of the Upper Tanana Valley has
received 0.5 to 1 inches of rainfall. In the Alaska Range several
stations report more than an inch, and some stations on the
southern side of the Range have reported more than 2 inches in the
last 36 hours. As this system stalls out in the Western Interior,
another half inch or so of rain will fall through Thursday,
mainly impacting the Upper Kuskokwim into McGrath.
Largest impact will be rapid rise in smaller rivers and creeks in
prominent mountain drainages; however, the antecedent warm/dry
conditions means that these rivers are starting low and will
likely not exceed major flood stages. Expect an increase of
trees/debris in rivers as well.
No major flooding of mainstream rivers is anticipated at this
time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Saturday through Tuesday.
On Saturday a ridge will situate itself over the North Central
Interior, blocking a series of vorticity maxima`s beneath it. As
the series of shortwaves moves into the Interior, chances of
thunderstorms and showers increase Saturday morning into Sunday
evening. Proceeding the shortwaves,on Monday, is a cold front
brought on by a closed low in the Bering Sea, which will bring
another round of precipitation focused on South Central Alaska
clearing out by Tuesday afternoon. Higher chances of thunderstorms
and will be focused to the Interior, with increasing intensity
likely towards areas of high terrain. As precipitation occurs, and
cooler air passes through temperature will likely trend downwards
for the upcoming weekend. Wind speeds will remain calm outside of
Point Hope, localized areas within the Central Interior, and
Alaska Range.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
Troyke
MacKay - Fire Weather
Donner - Extended
411
FXAK67 PAJK 241336
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
536 AM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A band of rain showers will move back into the northern gulf
coast through today as a weak low moves over the region.
- Drier conditions are expected to continue for the S Panhandle
communities through today. However rain chances increase late
late tonight through Thursday across the southern half of the
panhandle as a more organized low pressure system moves out of
the N Pacific towards Dixon Entrance.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/
A weak upper level low continues to persist across the Gulf this
morning while light rain moves closer to the outer coast but
should mostly be a concern for places from Pelican and Elfin Cove
northward to Yakutat. For the rest of the panhandle, we look to be
mostly dry with just clouds being the main concern across the
area. This cloud cover has allowed for temperatures to remain in
the low to mid 50s for most places but should also limit how warm
we get today. Rain chances are expected to increase late this
evening for the southern and central panhandle as the next wave of
precipitation moves in. The heaviest rain amounts look to be
across the southern panhandle while amounts look to be lighter the
farther north you go. Headed into the start of the weekend, we
should start to see things across the panhandle dry out as high
pressure returns to the Gulf.
.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
The long term forecast is relatively benign through the weekend,
with shower potential diminishing and warm temperatures taking
hold. Rainfall in the southern panhandle from the remnants of the
Thursday system will keep the southern panhandle wet through the
morning, but skies look to open up through the latter half of the
day. Isolated showers will be possible through the rest of the
panhandle Friday as the low dips south and mid to upper level
easterly flow continues. Included a very, very slight chance that
a more developed BC thunderstorm makes it over the mountains and
into Skagway or Haines.
Ridging over the gulf builds through the day, increasing gulf
winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze down the coast
through the weekend. The panhandle looks to stay relatively dry
Saturday, which will allow the southern and central panhandle to
clear out. Some models are keeping the northern panhandle mostly
cloudy, but thinking there will be a chance for breaks. Continued
onshore flow over the weekend will allow for shower potential, but
the chances remain low. With clearing skies for much of the
panhandle, high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s will be
possible. This will also create potential for 10 to 15 kt sea
breezes to increase through midday. A tightening pressure gradient
over Northern Lynn Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya
Inlet and into Skagway through the early afternoon of each day,
which may bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze
influence. There is potential for showers to return next week, but
with large discrepancies between models, confidence remains low
for anything significant.
&&
.AVIATION.../through 12z Thursday/
Wide range of flight conditions ongoing across SEAK panhandle
terminals this morning as weak ridging remains in place over the
S panhandle in tandem with a weak low developing in the N Gulf.
Along the coast, predominate IFR to MVFR ceilings ongoing with
CIGS AoB 2000 ft with intermittent periods of LIFR CIGS near
400ft. Further inland, along and east of a line from Juneau to
Kake to Wrangell, VFR flight conditions prevail with CIGS AoA
5000ft. Anticipating these trends to continue through Wednesday
afternoon as an upper level low and its associated surface
disturbances transit eastward with general MVFR flight conditions
along the coastal terminals, improving to VFR further inland
towards PAJN, with coastal terminals becoming dominate MVFR/IFR
once more overnight into Thursday.
Overland winds expected to remain light through the afternoon,
around 10 kts or less, diminishing to near calm and variable
overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
Broad upper level system continues to slowly move eastward across
the Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. A weak area of low pressure
will develop in the N Gulf through Wednesday, bringing variable
direction winds 15kts or less from Cape Spencer to Icy Cape
through the afternoon. In the N Pacific, a 1008mb low develops by
Wednesday evening, extending a front into the southern Gulf of
Alaska and S Panhandle as it moves to 225 SW of Haida Gwaii
through Thursday morning. Predominate southerly winds across the
outer coast and gulf will turn more easterly through Wednesday
evening, then northerly through Thursday afternoon as low tracks
south in the N Pacific. Wave heights around 4 to 6 feet expected
through Thursday night, increasing to 5 to 8 feet by Friday
afternoon.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Light winds continue across majority of the inner channels this
morning, with strongest winds around 10 to 15kts reported near
Lincoln Rock in Clarence Strait. A weak system will push W across
the N Gulf through Wednesday, with no significant impacts expected
to the inner channels outside of overcast skies and occasional
shower. Strongest winds expected this afternoon in the E/W
oriented channels like Icy Strait, Stephens Passage from Point
Arden to Scull Island, and the Stikine Delta region, up to around
15 to 20kts. For Thursday, a more organized low will push across
the S Gulf near Haida Gwaii,bringing increased SE-ly winds within
Clarence Strait S of Ketchikan towards Dixon Entrance, near 20
kts. Wave heights across inner channels remain 1 to 3 feet, higher
near ocean entrances around 3 to 5 feet through Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Snow melt from above normal temperatures last weekend resulted in
elevated stream flow for rivers across the Chilkat Valley area.
While temperatures will cool somewhat this week, snow levels in
excess of 5000 feet will continue to support elevated stream
flows. Temperatures will warm again this coming weekend, causing
daily levels to rise again. Please alert the NWS of any observed
flooding.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...Ferrin
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