972
FXAK68 PAFC 071310
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKDT Thu May 7 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Mostly cloudy skies with showers persist due to continued
troughing over Southcentral Alaska. The source of these troughs is
an upper low over northern Alaska. This low will slowly move
southward over the forecast period, bringing cooler air aloft
along with it. This cooler air will provide instability and will
allow for continued chances for rain showers through Thursday,
even for inland areas like Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Snow levels
will follow a diurnal curve ranging from about 1500-1800 during
the daytime and dropping to as low as 400 to 700 ft by Friday
morning. A Turnagain wind will bend into Anchorage Thursday into
Friday as a coastal ridge forms over the Chugach range and lower
pressure forms over western Alaska. This will also allow for a
Knik wind into the Matanuska Valley during the same time period. A
North Pacific low rises into the Gulf on Friday. This low will
interact with the upper low moving southward. The two lows will
create some kind of a convergence zone, allowing for precipitation
along the Gulf Coast with the potential for a barrier jet forming
in the Cordova region by Saturday. Inland areas such as Anchorage
will also see an increase in precipitation chances, but the
eastward trend of the North Pacific low has seen these chances
decrease.
-JAR/CJ
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Thu through Sun)...
The forecast remains on track with an upper-level low along the
North Slope digging southward towards Western and Southwestern
Alaska. It will continue southward into interior Alaska today and
then to the Lower Yukon-Kuskokwim Valley for Friday. An unstable
airmass is expected for Southwest Alaska as cold air moves in
aloft with the low. Expect showers to develop this afternoon
through at least Friday with the afternoons and early evenings
having the best chance for showers with peak daytime heating. Most
of the showers will remain confined to the terrain of the Western
Alaska Range and along the mountain ranges of interior Bristol
Bay. The lightning threat remains very low due to limited surface
heating. Showers will continue into Saturday as the upper-level
low nudges west over the Kuskokwim Delta as it interacts with a
trough lifting north through the Gulf of Alaska and drags
additional moisture into interior Bristol Bay.
Farther out west, a Kamchatka low extends a trough across the
western Bering through Adak/Atka. This troughing will linger
through Saturday morning before higher pressure builds in starting
Saturday afternoon. The result will be continued periods of
rainfall across Adak/Atka through Saturday morning. A stronger low
pressure system near southern Kamchatka Saturday morning moves
eastward through the rest of the day and sends its front to the
western Bering and the Western Aleutians by Saturday evening. This
will bring another round of gusty southerly winds and rain to
Shemya by then. Unlike the past few storms which had their
progressions eastward stunted (thanks to the strong ridge in the
Bering), this system appears to progress east along the Aleutian
Chain the second half of the weekend and into next week as the
blocking ridge finally weakens.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A large,
closed upper level low lingers over the YK-Delta and eastern
Bering Sea through the end of the weekend. This low interacts with
a system in the Gulf which will bring precipitation chances
across Southcentral through the end of the weekend into early next
week, mainly for coastal areas. A strong front pushes across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula bringing widespread rainfall and
elevated winds Sunday through Monday as a potent surface low
emerges out of Kamchatka and tracks into the southern Bering. The
front enters the Gulf by Tuesday morning and brings another round
of rainfall to Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
northern Gulf coast through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Light rain showers may continue through the early morning
hours before tapering off by late morning/early afternoon. Winds
will be out of the south around 10 knots this morning before
picking up with gusts to 25 knots after 21Z. Ceilings in the
early morning may drop below 5000 ft but will rise above 5000 ft
after 16Z.
&&
$$
502
FXAK69 PAFG 071352
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
552 AM AKDT Thu May 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The pattern of cool temperatures across Alaska with showers in
the Interior continues through Saturday morning, after which a
system arrives from the south to bring in warmer temperatures and
more extensive precipitation for areas south of the Brooks Range.
The North Slope remains colder and relatively dry through the
weekend, with low stratus clouds from onshore flow. Winds across
the state become primarily northerly Thursday night, and will
strengthen along the Western and Northern Coasts and over the
Brooks Range Friday night.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Thursday and Friday, scattered rain/snow in the Southern and
Eastern Interior with potential for a shift to snow overnight,
especially at higher elevations. Minimal snowfall accumulations
are expected.
- Friday night through Saturday, chances for precipitation become
more widespread across the Central and Eastern Interior.
Precipitation type should be mostly rain, apart from higher
elevations where snow or a rain/snow mix could occur.
- Cooler temps expected through Friday, likely only reaching the
mid/upper 40s Thursday. Similarly, low temperatures will cool
into the low 30s, allowing for some patchy areas of frost to
develop overnight.
- Winds through the Alaska Range and into the southeast Interior
will be southerly Thursday before weakening and turning easterly
overnight. Winds across the rest of Interior will be easterly
to northeasterly Thursday before strengthening on Friday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cool, dry air mass has settled over the western half of the
state, resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend.
High temperatures will struggle to reach the 40s in the Western
Interior through Thursday and will be colder along the coast.
Lows will range from the upper teens across the Seward Pen and
Kotzebue Sound to the low 20s in the Western Interior.
- Strong northerly winds begin to develop through the Bering
Strait Thursday, dropping slightly overnight before
restrengthening again Friday with gusts up to 30 mph through
the Strait.
- Showers becomes more likely in the Western Interior Friday
night/ Saturday morning. Precipitation type will become snow or
a rain snow mix overnight. Amounts will be light, less than a
tenth of an inch liquid.
- Low stratus clouds remain along parts of the coast and areas of
low clouds will likely persist through Thursday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers have ended north of the Brooks Range to the Coast.
However, the Central and Eastern Brooks Range will continue to
see chances for snow through the weekend. Daily snow accumulations
look to be up to 3 inches in the heaviest places.
- North to northeast winds, at times gusty, will develop Thursday
evening and strengthen gradually through Friday night. There
may be enhanced northerly gap winds trough Central Brooks Range
Passes on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph.
- Northeasterly winds around Point Hope and Cape Lisburne will
peak at over 40 mph Saturday into Sunday.
- Northerly onshore winds will keep the Arctic Coast socked in
with low stratus clouds. It will also result in max temperatures
in the low 20s and teens above through the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low descending over Western Alaska continues to
pull cold air over most of Alaska, but especially the West Coast.
On the eastern side of the low, southerly flow will support
showers in the Interior Thursday and Friday. It is also causing
heavier snow in the Eastern Alaska Range, which should taper off
through Thursday morning. At the surface, high pressure is present
in the Bering Strait from the Chukchi Sea, and over southeast
Alaska. Through the Bering Strait and into the Western Interior,
northerly winds will begin to strengthen through the day Thursday.
High pressure builds in over more of the North Slope resulting in
northeasterly winds across most of the Interior by Thursday
afternoon. The high surface pressure over the Panhandle will allow
southerly winds in the Southeast Interior to overpower the
northeasterly gradient producing southerly winds through the
Alaska Range and into the Southeastern Interior. Models are
showing the showers expected this afternoon primarily forming to
the north of where these two wind fields meet, over the White
Mountains east of Fairbanks.
Friday the upper-level pattern remains mostly the same with the 523
dam upper-level low now over the southwest Interior, generally
colder temperatures through Northern Alaska and showers in the
Interior which should move to the northwest to include the
Central and Eastern Brooks Range and more of the Western Interior.
However, a new low is approaching the Gulf of Alaska from the
South and the leading edge of that system looks to begin impacting
our area Friday night. The of the surface pressure gradient from
the high pressure to our north and approaching low from the south
results in an increase of winds across the state. Wind direction
in generally easterly to northeasterly, but becomes more northerly
closer to the West Coast and through the Bering Strait. We could
see enhanced gap winds through the Brooks Range Passes, although
the direction of the winds appears more easterly at this time,
which would reduce the impacts.
Saturday morning, the first impacts of a low coming up from the
Pacific will be felt in the southeast Interior. A broader swath of
moisture than the showers we`ve had the previous couple days
travels from southeast to northwest through the day Saturday. This
advection of warm moist air will also serve to warm things up in
the Interior. The North Slope and West Coast will have easterly
and northerly winds strengthen respectively, with particular note
around Point Hope and the eastern Arctic Coast. These stronger
colder winds will reduce the warming effect of the arriving air
mass and keep them cooler still. The Saturday system also brings
some of the first decent chances for convection. Models are
putting good chances for thunderstorms across the border which
could carry over into the Southeastern Interior.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
General troughing across the state will continue to allow for
isolated precipitation chances across the Interior through the
rest of the week. Temperatures are expected remain on the cooler
side with highs mostly in the 40s today and into the low 50s by
Friday. This weekend will likely see higher temperatures, with
some areas possibly reaching 60. Areas that see a quick warm up,
especially this weekend, may also see quick drops in RH as well.
Minimum RHs are expected to be between 30% and 40% through the end
of the weekend. Generally light winds are expected today, though
southerly winds could be gusty in the Yukon Flats, YK Delta, and
SW Interior on Friday. Thunderstorms may be isolated through the
rest of the week, but possibly more scattered on Saturday in the
SE Interior and on Sunday in the White Mountains and the areas
west and east of town.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Breakup continues along the upper Yukon as Eagle broke up earlier
this week and the breakup front could reach Circle as early as
tonight. The exact timing will depend on ice jams forming and
releasing as the breakup front moves down river. Upstream of Eagle
the river continues to breakup. so additional delayed ice runs
will happen there in the next few days.
Elsewhere rivers continued to rise with several locations moving
into action stage by Wednesday afternoon. As such river flood
watches have been issued for areas surrounding Eagle, Circle, and
the Tanana for Manly Hot Springs.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Sunday to Wednesday
The pattern will be changing as an Omega block extending from
Western Alaska to Central Siberia breaks down. First and foremost,
an energized front will lift north on Sunday bringing our highest
chances for thunderstorms in the Interior thus far. Otherwise, a
high will drift north over the Arctic and by Sunday, it will be
around 1025mb, north of Utqiagvik. Farther south, a low in the
Gulf of Alaska will move north into South-Central. This low will
weaken and push a front over the Alaska Range and into the
Interior promoting gusty southerly winds through the Alaska Range
Passes as well as breezy south winds in the Interior. Isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers will be possible in the Interior on
Monday. On the North Slope and in the Brooks Range, expect
continued winds from the east/northeast with chances for snow,
mainly in the Brooks Range through most of the forecast period.
One thing to note is after Monday, confidence in the forecast is
much lower but it does appear that there will be a weakening low
moving east near the Aleutians. Depending on how far east it gets,
this could bring rain and snow chances to the West Coast with a
slight easterly wind. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions in the
Interior with continued chances for showers.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
Flood Watch for AKZ835.
Flood Watch for AKZ846.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
&&
$$
JT/BB/SL
512
FXAK67 PAJK 071825 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1025 AM AKDT Thu May 7 2026
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 18z taf issuance.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
- Today will be the best overall weather conditions through the
weekend, with clearing skies, light winds, and temperatures
reaching into the upper 40s to upper 50s through the afternoon.
- Clouds return Friday ahead of a stronger front Friday night,
bringing widespread rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches and
windy conditions across SE AK through the weekend.
SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/
A departing system which sideswiped SE AK on Wednesday, bringing
with it rain to parts of the area, has left a marine layer which
lingers across the area as of early Thursday morning. Some periods
of light rain or sprinkles remain possible under areas of thicker
marine stratus. This marine layer will dissipate from S to N
through the day on Thursday, with an end to precip following suit.
In its wake, significant breaks in the clouds, especially during
the afternoon hours, will help raise temperatures into the 50s and
60s, with the warmer temperatures being concentrated around the
southern panhandle.
The big story for the forecast ahead is the arrival of a fairly
robust (by spring standards) system in the panhandle Friday into
Saturday. The mid/upper level ridge still lingering across the
south, which had begun to restrengthen on Thursday, will be
displaced to the east by a broad area of occluding low pressure
moving up from the S. Ahead of the bulk of the system, a weak warm
front is expected to sweep north through the panhandle Friday
morning, bringing areas of light precipitation through the
panhandle. A stronger warm front sweeping up in the wake of the
first arrives by Friday afternoon, bringing more widespread PoPs
from midday Friday onwards. PoPs were increased somewhat heavy-
handed through midday Friday, though many locations may only see
drizzle or wetting rain with relatively light winds through the
channels with the initial pair of warm fronts. The cold front will
follow quickly behind, moving into the southern panhandle through
late Friday afternoon before spreading through the rest of the
panhandle overnight. The outer gulf coast will see a stronger area
of winds move in and up Clarence Strait with the first band,
though the main swath of strong winds will move into the panhandle
and along the coast through late Friday night and into Saturday
morning with the second band. Light to moderate rainfall is
expected through Friday night as the system moves in, but periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend. See the
long term discussion for more details.
LONG TERM....../Saturday through Monday/...
Stronger winds have been added along the outer coastline and
eastern Gulf of AK for the front moving through Saturday into
Sunday. Could bring just under gales to gale force winds in the
Gulf with this system, with models coming into agreement more on
wind speeds and strength of the low. Looking into early next week,
the winds across the Gulf and panhandle will begin to diminish
Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds above 15 kt lingering primarily
in the northern Gulf as another front pushes through, and in Lynn
Canal Monday. Moderate precipitation is expected to be persistent
through the day Saturday. Overnight Sunday, persistent
precipitation looks to improve to more showery conditions across
the whole panhandle that will last throughout the day Monday.
Flooding does not currently look to be a threat associated with
this system. There is 90% confidence that the maximum 24 hour
precipitation accumulation will be less than 2 inches in the
southern panhandle, 1.5 inches in the central panhandle and
Yakutat, and 1 inch in the northern panhandle.
Stronger winds have been added along the outer coastline and
eastern Gulf of AK for the front moving through Saturday into
Sunday. Could bring just under gales to gale force winds in the
Gulf with this system, with models coming into agreement more on
wind speeds and strength of the low. Looking into early next week,
the winds across the Gulf and panhandle will begin to diminish
Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds above 15 kt lingering primarily
in the northern Gulf as another front pushes through, and in Lynn
Canal Monday. The rest of the inner channels will remain largely
below 10 kt Tuesday into midweek with a more benign weather
pattern expected. /Contino and Sullivan
AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions across the panhandle this
morning. However, there are isolated areas of MVFR ceilings (down
to 1000 to 2500 ft) and some light rain showers (mainly along the
outer coast) with the lowest conditions observed at Yakutat.
Expect improving conditions to VFR through the day as a ridge
builds in the eastern gulf turning low level flow more offshore by
afternoon and bringing more breaks in the cloud cover after noon.
Highest winds today are still confined to N Lynn Canal, Haines and
Skagway where gusts to 28 kt out of the S are being observed.
Skagway/Taiya Inlet will likely still see continued gusts to 25 to
30 kt today before the winds diminish this evening by 6 pm. VFR
conditions and lower winds should last through most of Thursday
night as well, but an approaching front for Friday morning will
bring cloud cover back, with chances of rain and increasing winds
starting in the south after 4 am. Initial front may bring some
periods of MVFR conditions (mainly lower ceilings) to Prince of
Wales Island, Annette Island, and Ketchikan Friday morning but
rainfall is expected to be on the lighter side and not
significantly decrease visibility. Winds are expected to start
increasing out of the SE Friday morning across the south mainly
with gusts to 30 to 35 kt by late Fri morning or into the
afternoon.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have continued
to diminish through Thursday morning, reaching 4 to 5 ft.
Southwesterly swell at an 8 to 10 second period has already
decreased to a more uniform 2 ft. Winds and waves will continue on
the downward trend through Thursday night before a more organized
front brings a swath of near gale force winds surging northward
through the central gulf with waves reaching 9-12 ft late Thursday
night into Friday. These high-end near-gale force southeasterly
winds are expected to continue north along the coast by Friday
night and through Saturday, bringing a swath of 15 to 18 ft waves
with a 12 to 14 ft swell at 12 to 14 seconds along the coast
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds and wave heights remain
elevated through the weekend before subsiding next Monday.
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in Lynn Canal remain the last
holdouts of breezier conditions in the inner channels, clinging on
to ~15 kt as of early Thursday morning, even as surrounding areas
steadily diminish. Winds will largely collapse in full through the
first half of Thursday as a low moves towards the southern gulf.
This will briefly cause a full collapse of the pressure gradient,
with a period of light winds and seas of 2 ft or less for most
areas, before channel winds switch out of the north Thursday night
and increase to a moderate breeze into Friday morning. Strong
southerly winds are expected to return Friday afternoon into
Saturday as a front moves up from the south and sweeps into the
panhandle. Fresh to strong breezes will move up through the
channels Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing 3 to 4 ft
seas through the channels and 7 to 9 ft seas in channel entrances,
particularly southern Clarence Strait. Winds and waves remain
elevated through the weekend before starting to subside next
Monday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GFS/ZTK
LONG TERM...AGP/LC/BAS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS/ZTK
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