271
FXAK68 PAFC 121243
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Thu Feb 12 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...
An inverted trough situated over the Kenai Peninsula overnight
brought an area of moderate to heavy snow from Homer to Kenai and
Big Lake through early this morning. The trough is weakening this
morning as the upper-level support shears apart, a result in a
potent upper-level low continues to move east toward the Alaska
Panhandle and the diffluence aloft providing the lift for the
development of snow showers diminishes. Still, a chance for snow
showers across northern Cook Inlet east to the Anchorage Bowl and
Matanuska Valley will remain through tonight as a shortwave over
the Southwest Alaska coast slides east today.
The bigger challenge in the short term will be the development
and extent of low stratus and fog tonight through Friday night.
The aforementioned shortwave will advect some colder and drier air
along with a westerly shift in the winds aloft, suggesting a
general trend in clearing skies. However, weak flow near the
surface and some weak vorticity advection may result in stubborn
low cloud cover and/or fog across the Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska
Valley, and Copper River Basin overnight tonight and again Friday
night into Saturday morning. The shortwave trough will move over
Southcentral tonight, quickly followed by a second on Friday.
These features may even allow for some flurries or very light snow
if, indeed, there is lingering cloud cover and moisture from the
most recent snow event.
The eastward progression of the shortwave troughs, coupled with
cold air advection, will also result in the development of gusty
winds winds through the favored gaps and passes such as Thompson
Pass, Resurrection Bay, and Passage Canal through Friday. The next
weather-maker arrives for Saturday as a Bering system pushes
inland of Southwest Alaska and over Southcentral Alaska. Snow is
looking likely across most locations with some rain/snow mix
potential near the coast. Stay tuned to the forecast for further
updates regarding Saturday`s system.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
The large Bering Sea low is finally pushing onshore over Southwest
Alaska and will continue weakening. Light snow showers will
continue drifting eastward across Southwest Alaska through today,
with some colder air pushing in on the backside. Some light
blowing/drifting snow is possible along the coast this morning as
gusty winds slowly diminish, though falling snow is expected to
taper off early this morning. By this afternoon and evening, weak
ridging will bring further calm to the mainland with pockets of
blue sky showing before sunset.
Moving into the weekend, the next weather maker will slide across
the Bering from west to east. This all stems from a low barreling
towards Kamchatka. Extending south and east from this low is a
rather expansive occluded front that will eventually develop a
triple point low near St. Paul. Warmer air is expected to
accompany the front, to once again shove the colder air mass out
and bring warmer temperatures across the Bering and Southwest
Alaska. Winds and rain are expected across the Aleutian Chain,
with gales near Shemya diminishing to small craft as they cross
the Central Aleutians. However, a secondary low gets pulled north
out of the North Pacific towards the Central/Eastern Aleutians
Friday/Saturday, bringing stronger winds to the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, with some models hinting at storm force
gusts, though uncertainty remains. The weekend will see the
return to unsettled weather as precipitation of many forms will
move back over land.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...
Persistent upper level ridging looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific with shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis this
weekend into early next week. A low pressure system and its
accompanying front move through Southwest Alaska Saturday. The
main threat with this system at this time looks to be the
potential for moderate snowfall across interior Southwest Alaska,
rain mixing with snow along the coast, and rainfall across the
Alaska Peninsula. This system crosses the AKPen and moves into the
Gulf Saturday night and quickly continues toward Southeast Alaska
on Sunday. With slight weakening as it crosses the AKPen and a
deepening shortwave, there is an increased chance for snowfall
across Southcentral Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
under a Bering ridge moves in behind the low which tightens the
pressure gradient in the southern AKPen and Barren Islands. This
will increase the chance for gusty northwesterly gap winds Sunday
into Monday.
The Bering ridge moves over Southcentral Monday before a second
progressive shortwave moves through the AKPen and breaks it down
Monday night. This brings increased chances for precipitation
Monday across Southwest and Tuesday across coastal Southcentral. A
surface low develops in the western Gulf Tuesday, resulting in
another tight pressure gradient which will increase the chance for
gusty northwesterly gap winds from the AKPen through the Barren
Islands. Models continue ridging over the Pacific through midweek
with weak waves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. However, there
is divergence on the timing of waves over the Aleutians and the
movement of an Arctic trough southwards from northern Alaska.
These details will become more clear in the coming days.
PA
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the early morning
hours, then VFR conditions will prevail by late this morning and
early this afternoon. Snow showers are expected to continue to
move through the region through the morning hours, clearing out by
the afternoon. Wind speeds will shift southeasterly by the late
morning, but will remain light. Low stratus and fog may develop
tonight, potentially dropping conditions to IFR at times.
&&
$$
834
FXAK69 PAFG 121515
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
615 AM AKST Thu Feb 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A decaying low pressure in the Eastern Bering Sea will continue
its wobble to the east this morning. This evening this feature
will get swept into upper-level flow and will quickly move east.
Until then light to moderate snowfall will continue across the
West Coast and Western Interior, with some visibility restrictions
due to gusty northerly winds. As the feature moves across Northern
Alaska, this snow will follow suit, but will be much lighter than
the West Coast. Strong northeasterly winds and light snow along
the Chuckchi Sea Coastline will create periods of blizzard
conditions through Thursday. Another low will move through the
Bering Sea and onto the West Coast Friday. This low will move west
to east bringing moderate to heavy snowfall across Interior
Alaska this weekend. There are still large model spreads with
snow accumulations, but widespread 4"-8" of snow is expected.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A quick-hitting cold front will bring another round of light
snow beginning Thursday evening for the Central Interior and
travel eastward and be out of the state by Friday evening.
- Another low pressure system will make its way into the Central
Interior bringing widespread light to moderate snowfall
beginning late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Exact
snowfall amounts in specific locations remain uncertain.
Scattered light snow could remain through the weekend in some
spots.
- The Upper Kuskokwim Valley to the Tanana Valley could see
elevated wind gusts on Saturday. There could be wind gusts in
the valleys of 20 to 30 mph. Locations above 1000 feet would
see winds up to 40 mph.
- Colder and drier conditions return to the Interior early next
week following widespread snowfall. Low temperatures will
likely fall back into the negative double digits for much of the
Interior by midweek next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light to moderate snowfall will continue for much of the West
Coast today. Snowfall will be heaviest in the higher terrain of
the Southern Seward Peninsula with additional snow
accumulations of 4"-6".
- Another system will make its way into the West Coast beginning
Friday morning bringing another round of light to moderate snow
to the region. The Yukon Delta and Western Interior will see the
highest snow amounts. With 4"-8" of snow expected. The rest of
the region could see up to 4" of snowfall.
- There could be reduced visibility due to gusty easterly winds
and falling snow across the West Coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Dangerous winds chills across the North Slope will continue
through Friday. Warming temperatures and weakening winds on
Saturday will help to alleviate conditions.
- Two rounds of snow are expected through the weekend. The first
round will move west to east across the North Slope today
bringing 1"-2" of snow. Saturday night will see the next round
of snow with an additional 1"-2" expected.
- Strong easterly winds and falling snow across the Chuckchi Sea
Coastline today will create periods of blizzard conditions. By
this evening the threat for blizzard conditions will have
diminished.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A decaying low pressure in the Eastern Bering Sea will transition
to an upper-level wave later this afternoon. This will upper-level
wave will phase into the main flow pattern aloft and will quickly
race to the east. We will see the stationary front that has sat
over the West Coast and Brooks Range get reinforcing cold air
advection from the west allowing for the boundary to strengthen a
bit. As this front moves across the Interior there will be light
snow to accompany it, with a widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow
expected from this front. A brief period of drier and colder
conditions will set up Thursday night and into Friday before our
next system will move into Northern Alaska.
Friday afternoon we will see the next low pressure system move
onto the West Coast. This system looks to be much more organized
than what the past couple of model runs have been showing, with a
closed off upper-level low. Most of the models are in fairly good
agreement that a weak warm front will set up from the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley to the Tanana Valley. We are expecting this to be
where the highest snow totals to be. Soundings for Saturday across
the region shows a very healthy Dendritic Growth Zone. With this
snow ratios could be on the 20 to 1 or higher scale. There is
model spread on these ratios with the lowest being 15 to 1 and the
highest around 26 to 1. These snow ratios differences accounts for
a lot of the model disagreement on snow accumulations. At this
time we are expecting widespread 4 to 8 inches across this
boundary, while the rest of the Interior could see 2 to 4 inches.
If the ratios do pan out to be higher than 20 to 1 then snow
totals would be higher than those ranges.
Along the weak warm front a low-level jet with move into the area
Saturday morning and going into early Sunday. This jet has winds
up to 40 mph. With some of the soundings, there are periods that
there would be a well mixed layer to the surface. This would allow
for the winds to mix down to the surface. Depending on snowfall
rates and how much wind does mix to the surface we could see
blowing snow concerns for the Central and Eastern Interior.
Locations above 1000 feet would have higher chances to see any
impacts of blowing snow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ridging will begin to develop over the Western Interior early next
week. This ridging will allow for colder and drier arctic air to
return to the Eastern Interior. Temperatures could drop to the 20s
below zero in the Interior valleys next week. There will be
transient clouds and snow showers next week, so that could limit
how could it actually gets. On the West Coast a series of fronts
will move through next week brining chances for gusty winds and
snow showers.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ801>810.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-813>815-851-859>861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817.
Gale Warning for PKZ852-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
&&
$$
Dennis
918
FXAK67 PAJK 121751
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
851 AM AKST Thu Feb 12 2026
.UPDATE...Update after 18z TAF issuance. Deep low in the eastern
gulf has strong SW flow to the southern panhandle. Wind is a main
hazard feature of this system. Ceilings are fairly widespread 1500
to 3000 feet in the Marginal category, while precip is adding
some vis restrictions, most are above 3 miles. Also the potential
for afternoon stronger convection primarily western Prince of
Wales Island ( Cooler air aloft, warmer water below leading to
conditional instability, then adding in orographic lift over
terrain to assist vertical development. ) This may be strong
enough for Thunder development, will be keeping an eye on
situation.
Marine update:
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
Thursday morning observations are highlighting storm force
conditions along our coast, with the highest winds focused from
Cape Ommaney south toward Dixon. Given satellite wind passes, able
to narrow down the 35 ft seas, likely aimed toward Baranof coast
and northern Prince of Wales coast. Along the northern coast,
buoy observations from 46082 and 46083 reported significant wave
heights about 10 to 15 ft lower than forecasted, which was a
direct result of a southerly shift in the storm force low;
forecast was updated at 0800 Thursday to reflect this shift.
However, one item of note was prominent WSW swell at 17 seconds,
masked by the fresh seas generated from the strong low. Moving
into early Friday morning wind and seas begin to diminish along
our coast. Next system will be a low that will take a southeast
transit along our coast Saturday night, bringing gale force
northwest winds to the central gulf and seas increasing. Mariners
wishing to transit from Cross Sound to Cape St. Elias will see
winds less than 30 knots and seas less than 12 ft if they favor
the coast.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Observations around the inside this morning more or less agreed
with yesterdays thoughts: N winds of moderate to fresh breezes in
Lynn Canal, with conditions rapidly deteriorating as you move
south from the Icy Strait Corridor. A few observations in
Clarence Strait were reporting southwest gusts to 53 knots as of
0800 Thursday. Moving through Thursday afternoon high winds will
continue to shift east into the Panhandle, driving strong gales
with gusts to storm force for most of the central and southern
passages. Stephens Passage looks particularly intense Thursday
afternoon, with a few hours of storm force conditions starting
near 1 to 2 pm Thursday afternoon. Moving through Thursday night,
wind and seas begin to subside, bringing light winds through
Saturday. An extended period of outflow conditions begins Sunday,
with gale force conditions ebbing and flowing through the week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 559 AM Feb 12...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Numerous maritime storm warnings through Thursday over the
eastern Gulf of Alaska and along the near shore waters of the
outer coast from Sitka southward.
- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect for the northern inner channels for snow potential.
Highest accumulations are expected on Haines Highway, including
areas like Klukwan.
- Multiple High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect
for the panhandle, with highest winds along and south of a line
from Sitka to Kake.
- Increasing potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon for
southern panhandle, highest likelihood near Prince of Wales
Island and the surrounding areas.
- Weather pattern change begins on Friday, with showers
diminishing in coverage through the day.
SHORT TERM...
The storm force system over the eastern Gulf is rapidly
approaching Baranof island as of the time of writing. An occluding
front has been advancing through SE AK overnight, bringing
widespread windy conditions for the central and southern
panhandle, snow for the far northern panhandle, and rain for
everyone else. While the system`s initial front will depart the
area through the morning hours, the landfalling low itself will
bring with it a second wrap later in the day on Thursday, bringing
about another round of rain and wind. Embedded along the eastern
flank of the second wrap, a developing mesoscale low will bring
with it an additional spike in winds for areas south of Angoon. By
Thursday night, winds and precip will be on a downward trend,
although chances of thunderstorms will present themselves for the
southern outer coast and the vicinity of Prince of Wales Island.
By Friday, lingering showers will be diminishing in coverage as
the onshore flow fades away, and by late Friday into Saturday and
cooler weather will be ushered in as northerly outflow conditions
start to develop.
LONG TERM...
Onshore flow will continue for the start of the long term period
with a weakening low remaining in the northern Gulf for the end of
the week. This onshore flow will continue to bring moisture into
the area allowing for showers to continue. Most of these showers
should remain on the lighter side but could potentially have some
periods of moderate to heavy rain mixed in. Going into the
weekend, high pressure builds over the Yukon and Interior Alaska
before shifting to the south and east. This shift will strengthen
the pressure gradient between Canada and the Panhandle. With this
increasing gradient, winds out of gaps in terrain are expected to
increase with outflow winds. Temperatures are also expected to
start to decrease going into this weekend with a lot of locations
expected to drop below freezing for the northern and central
panhandle by Saturday morning.
With the dropping temperatures and continued onshore flow, some
snow showers are likely to occur but would result in light snow
accumulations at this time. Heading into Sunday, an area of low
pressure is expected to form near Prince William Sound before
moving into our area. This low will bring an increase in upper
level dynamics as well as a more organized area of snow. This
would be the first return of snow to most of the panhandle since
we moved out of the cold and snowy pattern in January. Right now,
accumulations for this system on Sunday look to be around a couple
inches for most places. But those locations that are at elevation
could of course see higher snow totals. Going into the middle to
end of next week, we look to continue to the cold trend with near
normal to below normal precipitation.
AVIATION.../through 12z Friday/
Predominate MVFR to VFR flight conditions for the panhandle this
morning with CIGS AoB 4000ft and visbys 3 to P6SM as the second of
two systems from previous days pushes across SEAK. Main aviation
hazard through Thursday will be strong surface winds and SE- ly
LLWS for southern and central Panhandle TAF sites increasing
after, with maxima through Thursday morning around 40 to 60 kts
between 1000 to 2000ft for PASI, PAKW, PAKT, decreasing further
moving northward and inland around 30 kts near Juneau. Overall
flight conditions will remain similar to yesterday, predominate
MVFR to VFR with periods of IFR visbys within heavier showers
moving on-shore, CIGS remain AoB 5000ft. Post-front, added PROB30
for potential thunderstorm development for PAKW for Thursday
afternoon.
MARINE...
A dangerous storm force low racing into SE AK will continue to
bring storm force conditions to the central and southern coast and
widespread gale force conditions in the inside.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters): As of early Thursday morning,
storm force winds and significantly elevated seas are present for
areas south of Sitka Sound. Accompanying them are frequent gusts
of violent storm force to hurricane force. These winds are
generating seas of up to 35 ft, with the higher seas in the more
southerly outer coastal areas.
Right now, current forecast consensus is that areas south of
Lisianski Inlet will be hardest hit. By late Thursday night, seas
will be on a downward trend, and Friday will dawn with seas of
between 9-14 ft, with seas of 8-11 ft by late Friday night.
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds continue to strengthen as a storm
force low approaches northern Baranof Island. Winds will continue
to ramp up Thursday morning with gale force conditions across many
inner passages, and storm force conditions for some of the
southern inner channels. One exception will be Lynn Canal, where
we will hold on to northerly winds of moderate to fresh breezes
for areas north of Vanderbilt Reef. We approach with caution as
areas south of Pt. Retreat and Douglas are likely to maintain
easterly near- gale to to gale force conditions. Wind and seas
subside Friday morning bringing better conditions until outflow
begins strengthening on Sunday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ320>322-324-
325.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323-
326>330-332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ033-035-036-641-642-661>663.
Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-022-031-032-034-643-644-664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-053-651-652-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
