303
FXAK68 PAFC 261301
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...
Another clear day dawns across Southcentral Alaska while high
pressure persists over the interior. Winds have subsided for most
locations, though a Mat-Valley wind continues. Winds have been
gusting from 35 to 40 mph during the overnight hours through
Palmer. These winds will slowly weaken through this afternoon and
evening. All precipitation chances are confined offshore of the
coast, with perhaps Kodiak briefly getting clipped by light snow
with the next wave of low pressure rotating southward through the
Gulf later this evening into tonight. The cold airmass that has
persisted over Southcentral is forecast to eventually erode by the
weekend`s end and next week will hopefully see daytime highs
across much of Southcentral warm into the upper 30s.
BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday)...
Generally expect a stormier trend as we head into the weekend,
with rain or rain changing to snow for the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands region, and light snow for Southwest Alaska. While some
forecast questions remain, no significant hazards are expected at
this time.
Diving into the details... the upper level pattern currently
features a low near the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula, a
ridge extending across much of the Bering Sea, and a broad low in
the Gulf of Alaska. Over the next few days, the low near Kamchatka
will push eastwards, displacing the ridge and bringing an end to
the mostly clear and cold conditions for much of Southwest Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern Bering Sea. The good news is
that the low will be occluding as it moves across the Bering Sea;
as such, expect winds to remain below gale force.
Still, warm air and moisture advected with this system will bring
periods of light precipitation. Most areas will likely see minor
accumulations by Saturday night. Given the current track of the
low and forecast temperatures, the Aleutian Islands should see
either all rain or snow changing to rain. Confidence is lower
regarding precipitation type for the Pribilof Islands and Southern
Alaska Peninsula, which may see a mix of rain and snow. The
remainder of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska will likely
see precipitation remain all snow, and light accumulations on the
order of a handful of inches on Saturday.
-KC
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...
Starting with Southwest Alaska, an upper-level low over the
central Bering brings possible mixed precipitation to the
Pribilofs, rain changing to snow across the Aleutian Islands, and
snow to the mainland and Alaska Peninsula by Monday morning.
Precipitation for Kodiak and the eastern Kenai Peninsula is
expected to fall as snow.
Temperatures approach seasonal averages as they warm into the low
30s Sunday and Monday for Southwest, and Sunday through Wednesday
for most of Southcentral. By Wednesday afternoon, the low reforms
in the Gulf of Alaska, renewing the potential for northerly gap
winds.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.
&&
$$
723
FXAK69 PAFG 260921
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
121 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather is expected to persist for northern
Alaska throughout the week, with temperatures slowly on the
upward trend. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected today
along the northwest Arctic, Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait Coast,
with the strongest gusts near Point Hope. This could lead to
potential areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility in this
region. These winds are expected to spread to the entire Arctic
coast traveling eastward throughout the rest of the week. Light
snow accumulations are possible for the rest of the week for the
western North Slope, especially near Kivalina.
Beginning as early as Saturday morning, a low in the Bering Sea
could begin to impact the West Coast by bringing snowfall, light
gusty winds, and potentially warmer temperatures.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Below average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to
continue with high temperatures steadily rising into the
twenties by mid-to-late week and lows rising into the single
digits below zero. Some areas could potentially see high
temperatures approach freezing by next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Areas along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could
experience south winds gusting as high as 20 mph through this
morning.
- Snow accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast
to the Seward Peninsula with the highest accumulations
expected near Kivalina. These accumulation could be as high as
3 inches by the end of the week.
- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the rest of the week
with highs in the mid-to-upper twenties by late week and lows
rising into the single digits above zero. Some areas could
potentially see high temperatures approach freezing by the
weekend.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- South/southwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph are expected to
continue for the northwest Arctic Coast and expand to the
entire Arctic Coast with the highest winds shifting east.
Potential blowing snow conditions are possible.
- Snow accumulations are possible for the western Brooks Range
with the highest accumulations expected near Kivalina. These
accumulation could be as high as 3 inches by the end of the
week.
- Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the week with highs
in the upper teens to lower twenties by late week and lows
rising into the low teens above zero.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
South/southwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph will continue for
the northwest Arctic Coast today as the ridge shifts overhead,
leading to potential blowing snow conditions at times. Areas
along the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait coasts could experience
south winds gusting as high 20 mph at this time as well. Snow
accumulations are possible for the Northwest Arctic coast
and the Seward Peninsula. Highest accumulations are expected to
be near Kivalina and could be as high as 3 inches by the end of
the week. As the ridge weakens and shifts to set up over the
entire North Slope, winds spread eastward to include the entire
Arctic Coast. Light snow accumulations this weekend will also be
possible for the northwest Arctic and West Coasts due to the ridge
bringing upper level moisture.
Patchy dense fog is possible along portions of the West Coast this
morning where there`s open water near land and onshore flow,
although any fog should burn off by the afternoon. As the upper
level ridge begins to move over the state and days lengthen,
temperatures will continue to steadily rise throughout the week.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Beginning late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning, a
low is expected to come into the Bering Sea and begin impacting
the West Coast. This low is expected to bring minimal impacts
including light snow accumulations for St. Lawrence Island and the
YK Delta and light gusty south/east winds. This low could bring
warm air advection for the West Coast and Interior this weekend
and into next week, potentially causing some areas to approach or
even rise above freezing for the first time since October.
Once this low reaches the Gulf of Alaska, it is possible that the
ridge could restregthen in the Bering Sea by the middle of next
week. If this were to happen, as the ECMWF is hinting at,
temperatures could retreat back 5-10 degrees below normal due to
cold air advection and northerly flow. The GFS isn`t as robust in
restrengthening the ridge and this could lead to temperatures
remaining near normal.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
Lewis
320
FXAK67 PAJK 261921
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1121 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2026
.UPDATE...update to include the 18Z TAF issuance.
Only real update to the forecast this morning was to include Kake
and Port Alexander into the Winter Weather Advisory as the bands
of snow have pushed further north than previously expected.
Multiple bands of snow rotating around the low in the southern
gulf will continue to push through the southern panhandle over the
next couple of days. Further north, dry and colder conditions with
outflow continuing.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Outflow winds continue for northern channels and NE gulf coast
through most of the week.
- Strong gusty winds expected for downtown Juneau/south Douglas
and Skagway through Thursday.
- Multiple systems pushing into the southern panhandle will bring
rounds of wintry precipitation to Ketchikan, Annette, and
Prince of Wales Island.
.SHORT TERM...A similar story continues across the panhandle with
northerly outflow across the north and overcast skies with snow
across the south. Looking first at the outflow, minimal changes
were made to the wind forecast overnight. The main change was
slightly increasing winds over Lynn Canal as northerly gale force
winds have continued to push farther southward. Wind Advisories
are still in effect for Skagway, Downtown Juneau and South Douglas
Island. Slightly weaker winds were observed overnight, but wind
gusts are once again going to increase through the morning hours
for these locations.
The same low that is allowing for outflow conditions across the
northern panhandle is bringing waves of precipitation towards the
south. Overnight, one of these waves brought snow all the way
northward into Admiralty Island. There was a short time where
snow was observed over the Juneau area, but no significant
accumulations occurred. The areas that are getting the most snow
out of this first band of precipitation is Prince of Wales Island
and Kake. Consistent snow with lowered visibilities of 2 miles or
less have been observed overnight. Looking at satellite
information and DOT cameras, the highest accumulations look to be
over the inland roadway system of Prince of Wales Island. This
same area will continue to see snow through the day as another
band of precipitation moves northward. This organized system will
bring snow to Prince of Wales Island, Annette Island, and the
Ketchikan Area. Because of this snow, winter weather advisories,
with possible snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, have been
issued. For those areas, moderate snow will begin around noon with
heaviest precipitation expected Thursday evening. Total snow
accumulations will be highly dependent on day time high
temperatures. Afternoon temperatures could reach the mid to upper
30s limiting snow accumulation but inland areas could remain
colder.
.LONG TERM...A quiet weather pattern remains in place across most
of the panhandle, barring some snow showers for the southern
panhandle through the first half of the weekend.
The upper level pattern will remain largely stable through the
weekend, with a broad area of troughing over the Gulf of AK. The
southern flank of the trough will largely remain south of the
panhandle, steering the bulk of the more active weather into British
Columbia and the West Coast rather than into SE AK. This means
lingering moderate strength northerly outflow, and cold late-season
winter temperatures across the central and northern panhandle. A
significant degree of clearer skies will likewise continue with this
outflow. This trough will be reinforced by upstream impulses
through the first half of the upcoming week, and at this time,
don`t expect it to properly break down until the latter half of
the week. Ensembles diverge substantially on how they want to
break apart the pattern, so confidence in what sort or strength of
system will ultimately break down the current pattern remains low.
Southern SE AK will see somewhat more active weather through
Saturday. An decaying low will spin off the coast of the southern
panhandle, sending snow showers across places like Prince of
Wales Island and Revillagigedo Island. Although snow shower
accumulations will be largely limited to the evening and overnight
hours, some minor accumulations are still expected. These showers
diminish through Saturday as the low moves inland and
disintegrates entirely. Beyond Saturday, largely dry conditions
are expected, barring a few scattered snow showers, and will last
through at least the first half of the upcoming week.
.AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/...
VFR flight conditions will continue to dominate across the
northern panhandle and for PAYA with passing mid to high clouds.
Outflow conditions continue however, with winds 10-20G20-32kt for
PAHN and PAGY. For PAYA, PAGS and PAJN, winds generally less than
10kts expected. However, there is still enough flow over the
mountain ridges that various pilot reports of turbulence and low
level wind shear were received overnight, primarily around Juneau.
These winds are expected to continue. Across the south, pockets
of snow will continue to lift north through the period, bringing
MVFR flight conditions for PAPG, PAWG, PAKT and PAKW. IFR VIS and
CIGs expected under heavier/steadier snow, especially for PAKT and
PAKW this afternoon/evening. PASI will generally see VFR flight
conditions with snow showers nearby. VFR VIS and CIGs are possible
if showers are able to make to the airspace. Gusty winds
10-15G20-25kt through the afternoon for the southern panhandle and
PASI, with higher gusts in and near strong snow showers,
otherwise winds generally less than 10kt through the period. LLWS
for PAKW and PAKT will diminish through the evening hours.
.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow winds continue throughout
the week for a majority of the inside waters. An exception to this
is Clarence Strait that will continue to see ESE winds due to
multiple low pressure systems that push into the southern gulf.
Across the inner channels you can anticipate fresh to strong breezes
of 17 to 27 kts with near gale to gale force winds of 28 to 40 kts.
The strongest of these winds will be across Lynn Canal (especially
near Point Couverden), out of Taku Inlet, and out of Cross Sound.
The main forecast change overnight was slightly increasing winds
across S Lynn Canal with both Little Island and Point Couverden
seeing sustained winds near 35 kts with gusts of 45 to 50 kts. Along
with these stronger winds, freezing spray and fully developed seas
will impact the northern inner channels. Heaviest freezing spray
will be during the overnight into early morning hours when
temperatures are at their lowest.
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Multiple low pressure systems
continue to push northward into the southern gulf sending shortwaves
into the southern panhandle. These lows will keep winds north of
Baranof Island NNE with SW winds just to the south Prince of Wales
Island. With these lows to the south, outflow winds will also
continue with strongest outflow winds of near gale to gale force out
of Dangerous River, just south of Yakutat, and Cross Sound. Outflow
conditions will also allow for significant wave heights of 10 to 12
ft in the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, seas will remain around 6
to 9 ft through Thursday. Winds and seas will be on downward trend
over the weekend as the low shifts east and the outflow weakens.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ318-325.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ327.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-036-053-641>644-
651-661>664.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS/PARK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB
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