745
FXAK68 PAFC 211209
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 AM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Discussion:
A large upper-level low continues to slowly drift southeast from
Cook Inlet overnight off the southeast coast of the Kenai
Peninsula this morning. Although this system is weakening,
multiple vorticity lobes rotating around the low is allowing for
some enhancement of light mixed precipitation from the western
Copper River Basin to the Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage Bowl.
South and east of the low, the precipitation is more showery in
nature due to a continued intrusion of colder air aloft.
The heaviest precipitation this morning is over Prince William
Sound to Cordova and north along the coastal mountains. Bands of
heavy snow showers will persist from Keystone Canyon and Thompson
Pass to the Kenny Lake area through this afternoon, tapering off
as the upper-level low and a developing surface low south of
Seward both move southeast over the central Gulf of Alaska.
The north-northeasterly flow over interior Southcentral will also
allow for some area of light snow to continue from Paxson to
Eureka through this evening, with upslope areas, such as those
around Eureka, likely to see another one to two inches of snow
today.
As the snow tapers off and the aforementioned surface low moves
south in tandem with a strong ridge of high pressure building over
the interior, the pressure gradient between the two will allow
gusty gap winds to persist through Resurrection Bay, Passage
Canal, and bays and passes around eastern Prince William Sound
through Thursday.
Overnight lows across the bulk of Southcentral will be much
colder over the next few days, dipping into the teens and 20s in
most spots for Thursday morning, and into the single digits for
portions of the Copper River Valley if skies remain clear. Low
temperatures overnight Thursday into Friday morning will likely
be even colder, with widespread teens for locations away from the
immediate coast and single digits to near zero degrees for
locations in the Copper River Basin.
Fog may form across Anchorage, the Mat-Su, and the Kenai
Peninsula due to moist ground and clearing skies. Cool and dry
conditions persist through Friday as an upper ridge encroaches
into Southcentral from the west. Looking ahead, a front looks to
move into Southcentral from the west on Saturday, likely bringing
rainfall to Kodiak Island. Southerly flow with this front may
bring warmer temperatures along with it, warming even inland
temperatures to the 40s.
-TM/JAR
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Key Messages:
* A High Wind Watch for Cold Bay and King Cove from Friday
morning to Saturday morning with southeast winds potentially
gusting up to 75 mph.
* A High Wind Watch for the Kuskokwim Delta/Coast, Bristol Bay
coast, and Platinum to Goodnews Bay from Friday morning to
Saturday morning. South winds could gust as high as 70 mph, and
there is medium to high confidence (60 to 80 percent) in wind
gusts exceeding 60 mph.
* A Coastal Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim Delta coast, including
Kipnuk and Kwigillingok from 8AM Friday through 1AM Saturday,
particularly around high tides near 10AM and 10PM Friday. The
most likely scenario is for water levels to be 2 to 3 feet above
the normal highest tide line.
Discussion:
A storm force front extending off a ~960 mb Kamchatka low enters
the western Bering late this afternoon and will works its way east
towards the Southwest coast through the end of the week.
The core of storm force winds along the front will be accompanied
by widespread high end gale force winds will spread across the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain tonight through Thursday afternoon before
reaching the Southwest coast. Southerly wind directions along the
southern Alaska Peninsula will prompt funneling through King Cove
and Cold Bay. Wind gusts reaching or exceeding 75 mph is possible
(40-60% chance). South to southwesterly gale force winds will push
along the coast and then force their way inland late Thursday
night into Friday morning, spending much of Friday working across
the Mainland. Wind gusts to 60mph or higher are likely (70-80%
chance) along the coast and as far inland as Bethel. Persistent
gusty south/southwesterly winds and surge may promote coastal
impacts, especially along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, however, the
northern Bristol Bay coast may see areas of higher surf as well.
Moderate rainfall associated with the front will most likely
compound coastal impacts.
KM/AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...
Key Messages:
* A series of strong storms move across the Bering Sea and into
Alaska from Friday through the weekend, bringing strong winds
and heavy precipitation.
* Confidence is low to medium with regards to impacts, strong
onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels concerns for
Southwest Alaska, mainly Friday and Saturday and again on
Monday.
Discussion:
The biggest story in the long-term forecast continues to focus on
a strong low transiting from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Alaska.
Ensembles continue to be in relatively good agreement with this
storm, with seemingly higher-than-average forecast confidence
given that this feature is 3 to 6 days out. Good run-to-run
consistency among deterministic global models is also contributing
to higher-than-average forecast confidence. The areas of highest
agreement with this feature are for gale to storm force sustained
winds along the front as it moves across the Aleutian Chain, the
Southwest Alaska coastline, and the Alaska Peninsula. These
onshore winds are raising concerns for coastal impacts (including
high surf and perhaps even minor coastal flooding) for south-
facing portions of the Western coast. A high wind watch has been
issued for portions of the Southwest coast and for the Cold Bay
area as the front passes. We are closely monitoring this storm as
it transitions from the long term forecast to the short term.
Southcentral should be spared the worst of the winds with this
storm, as the front will very likely be weakening by the time it
exits Southwest Alaska.
In addition to winds, there will also be plenty of moisture along
the front, which will bring periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest
Alaska. Given the strong winds associated with the front,
precipitation totals will depend on not on the duration of the
front over the area, but also its interaction with terrain
features including orographic lift and areas of downsloping that
would reduce precipitation totals. While warm air advection will
likely keep precipitation mostly rain for the majority of
Southwest Alaska, colder air lingering in Southcentral could mean
that lower elevation areas may see snow.
After this Bering low moves north and the front weakens,
southwesterly flow dominates the Bering Sea with embedded surface
lows that will continue to keep weather active with at least
periods of gale force winds across the Bering. However, resolving
these features are less clear through early next week.
The front could continue into Southcentral, bringing
precipitation to the region this weekend. Low confidence on the
forecast amounts as models vary with its progression eastward.
Otherwise high pressure begins to builds across the area Sunday
until midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Predominantly VFR conditions and northerly winds up to 10
kt persist through today. A 20 to 30 percent chance of showers
lingers through midmorning, which may allow for brief periods of
MVFR ceilings as showers move through. Shower chances diminish by
late this morning.
&&
$$
266
FXAK69 PAFG 211206
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow continues at varying intensities through Wednesday
morning and gradually tapers off by the afternoon.
* See winter products in your area at weather.gov/afg
- Temperatures drop considerably Wednesday night and especially
Thursday night, with morning wake up temperatures in the
single digits/teens Friday morning. Some of the coldest valley
locations may be as cold as -10F if and when skies clear.
-Temperatures rebound through the weekend, with highs reaching
above freezing by Sunday for most areas
- Quieter weather is expected Thursday and Friday as high
pressure builds in overhead. Some rain/snow showers are
likely late in the weekend
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers, mainly along the coast
through Thursday. Winds out of the southwest and gust 20-25
mph through Thursday night.
- A strong front arrives on the West Coast Friday morning. There
will be heavy rain/snow, wind gusts peaking around 50-70 mph,
localized blizzard conditions and coastal flooding.
* Heaviest snow will be mainly expected in the terrain of the
Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills, but 3 to 6 inches is
possible along the Seward Peninsula coast on Friday before
changing over to rain.
* This will be the start of a series of lows moving into the
Eastern Bering through next week.
* The next Bering Sea Low arrives on Sunday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow showers persist through the end of the week with light
snow accumulations around 1 to 2 inches expected.
- Heavy snow likely in the Western Brooks Range with light snow
along the coast as early as Friday afternoon. This will come
with strong south/southeast wind along the Chukchi Sea Coast
with gusts of 40-60 mph through Sunday.
- Warming temperatures will see highs reach above freezing by
Saturday for many valleys and for coastal areas.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm for the Eastern Interior will wind down on
Wednesday. In its wake, colder temperatures move in across the
state ahead of a new storm system moving into the West
beginning on Friday. This system will likely bring with it
coastal impacts, along with wind and for areas at elevation-
accumulating snow. This storm will persist through the weekend,
with other coastal storms looking likely to sweep in for next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A system winding down on Wednesday will be followed by a brief
break in active weather before a strong Bering Sea storm
arrives for the end of the week. Satellite and radar imagery as
of early Wednesday morning show a decaying deformation band
stretched out from SW to NE across the Eastern Interior, ranging
from the AK range up into the Yukon and the Northwest
Territories. This band has dropped anywhere from ~5 inches of
snow in east Fairbanks to potentially upwards of a foot or more
of snow out for areas further east. The heaviest snowfall has
since departed the area, and expect lingering snow showers to
gradually disperse through the daytime hours as a remnant low in
the Gulf of AK decays.
Over the next few days, the story shifts to cooler weather. A
mid-level trough dives in, bringing cold air advection racing
down along its western flank. 850mb temperatures as low as -14
to -15C arrive over the central interior by Thursday night even
as the trough`s western flank begins to erode in the face of a
ridge building along the West Coast. This will allow low
temperatures south of the Brooks Range to dip into the single
digits or low teens for much of the area, with the potential for
subzero weather for some valleys.
The colder weather will not be able to entrench itself as warm
air advection surging ahead of a new system moving in from the
Western Bering will send high temperatures surging back above
freezing for most areas not at elevation through the weekend,
even the North Slope. Unfortunately, this system will have
greater impacts than just a pleasant warm-up for northern
Alaska. As the low enters the Bering on Thursday, anticipate it
to reach as strong as 950-960 mb in the Western Bering, before
it moves NE through the next few days towards the Gulf of
Anadyr. A strong front sent racing out ahead of it will push the
ridge which had started building over the West Coast off to the
east. As the ridge is displaced, the front itself will arrive
bringing with it a round of high winds to the outer coast along
with significant accumulating snow for topographic areas
(mountains) beginning on Friday. Sustained South/Southwest winds
along and behind the front look set to bring high surf and
coastal flooding to parts of the outer coast as well. Some
areas could potentially see sea levels rising up to 4-8ft above
mean high tide. For additional details, see the coastal hazards
section of the discussion. This low will continue moving NE
through the weekend, before being swiftly replaced by another
low racing out of the Western Bering on Sunday, and bringing
with it another round of potential coastal impacts, winds, and
snow. For more information on these systems, see the long term
discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active weather continues into the long term with a Bering Sea
low in the Gulf of Anadyr pushing northeast towards the Chukchi
Sea. Out ahead of this system is a fairly potent warm front,
advecting large amounts of warm air and moisture into Western
Alaska. As a result, we expect to see strong south/southwest
winds, heavy precipitation, and high water levels impact the
West Coast from Hooper Bay north towards Wainwright. Due to
southwest steering flow aloft, upslope effects will impact
higher elevations across Western Alaska with the Western Brooks
Range, Southern Seward Peninsula, and Nulato Hills seeing
high snow accumulations. Exact snowfall totals are still
uncertain for now, but model guidance and EFI values continue to
point towards higher end amounts in excess of 10+ inches. At
the surface, temperatures will rise into the mid 30s/low 40s,
keeping most of the precipitation as rain for lower elevations
and areas near sea level along the coast. As the warm front
continues to progress inland through the weekend, rain and snow
showers will impact portions of the Western and Central
Interior, but accumulations look to be much lighter than what is
expected along the coast. The strengthening pressure gradient
will also likely bring gusty winds to the AK Range by late
Friday and through Saturday, with some respectable (although
lower in strength) wind gusts also likely for the Brooks Range
during the same time frame.
As we look towards Sunday into Monday, yet another low makes
its way into the Bering Sea following behind the parent system.
Although this low doesn`t have as much organization or dynamic
support in the mid-levels as the previous system, it still looks
likely to bring an additional push of rain/snow and strong
winds to the West Coast. Coastal impacts remain unknown this far
out, but given the persistence of southwest flow near the
surface, another round of high water levels and beach erosion
cannot be ruled out. As for the storm`s track, models are in
good agreement with it moving north/northeast through the Bering
Strait by Monday morning/afternoon. This set up allows for
ridging to reestablish itself in the Gulf and keep the overall
flow aloft mostly southwesterly. The ridge in the Gulf will
build as far north as the Central/Eastern Interior, with the SW
flow bringing warmer maritime air in and sending temperatures
racing back above seasonable norms in the low/mid 30s. This
pattern will also allow for a continuation of scattered
rain/snow showers across the state, which may present some
potentially slick and difficult travel conditions through the
end of the month.
The biggest takeaway from all this is that active weather will
continue through the foreseeable future, with ensembles
increasingly highlighting a potential third low pressure system
moving into the Bering Sea mid/late next week. Should this pan
out, flooding concerns become more likely again for communities
along the West Coast, as well as another chance for rain/snow
showers within the Interior.
Coastal Hazard Potential...A series of coastal storms are
expected beginning on Friday. Water will rise several feet above
the normal high tide line for many locations, resulting in
moderate coastal flooding and high surf/erosion. The areas of
most concern are currently the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound
where these spots are estimated to get the highest rises. Other
locations up and down the coast will see impacts from this, but
they may end up being geared towards high surf rather than
coastal flooding. After this first storm, there will be another
one arriving right on its heels Sunday night. This one looks
like it may be more impactful with more significant flooding
possible due to strong southwesterly flow. Another system may
arrive after this one towards the middle of next week. Overall,
it will be an impactful several days of weather coming up
beginning on Friday and we will be keeping a very close eye on
this pattern as it progresses. For the latest updates, please
see weather.gov/afg.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday
afternoon for AKZ801-820>822.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM AKDT Monday for
AKZ801>803.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
afternoon for AKZ813-814-819.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for
AKZ815.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
afternoon for AKZ816-817.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for
AKZ817-818.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday
evening for AKZ820-821-825.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through late
Sunday night for AKZ822.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Monday
afternoon for AKZ823.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM AKDT Monday for
AKZ824.
High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
afternoon for AKZ825.
High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
afternoon for AKZ827.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 PM AKDT Sunday for
AKZ827.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
AKZ833>840-843.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
AKZ841-842-844-845.
High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
night for AKZ847-849.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT
Thursday for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
Thursday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
afternoon for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
Thursday for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Key Messages.........SPANN
Synopsis.............SPANN
Short Term...........SPANN
Long Term............BIANCO/SPANN
Coastal..............SPANN
411
FXAK67 PAJK 211215
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 AM AKDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Onshore flow lasting will keep rain showers across the panhandle
until Thursday before rain chances diminish and bring a drier
trend going into the end of the week.
- Clearing skies and cooling trend to start out the weekend,
with overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid
30s, and the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the
upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...Conditions this morning are
starting out very different from 24 hours ago. Low pressure
remains in the NW Gulf near Prince William Sound which is bringing
the area onshore flow with showers and very isolated pockets of
thunderstorms. Some of these showers have brought brief periods of
heavy rain as they have moved onshore. Otherwise, there is
noticeable clearing between these showers, especially for the
southern panhandle where shower coverage is more limited. Farther
north, some low and mid level clouds have developed in the Inner
Channels allowing for less breaks. Even with this cloud deck set
up, some breaks in the clouds will be possible today allowing some
reprieve between the showers.
Temperatures today will continue to be around where we should be for
this time of the year while lows tonight are not expected to be too
cold. One concern going into this evening though will be how much
cloud cover persists with the colder air aloft and weaker winds.
Forecast guidance is hinting at the idea of temperatures potentially
dropping into the mid to high thirties starting tonight and
potentially getting colder going into Friday morning with the
decreasing cloud cover and weakening low pressure. Bu the time we
get to Saturday, we could be seeing a cold morning in store for a
lot of places with lows potentially around freezing for the northern
half of the panhandle while farther south, lows fall to the mid
thirties potentially.
.LONG TERM... /Friday through Sunday/...
Benign days are ahead compared to the last week of strong systems
for the panhandle. Friday sees the low pressure currently in the
northern gulf finally fill completely, with another system moving
up from the southwest. Not expecting this system to reach the
southern panhandle fully, only expecting the extreme southern
portion to be clipped by some moisture Saturday going into Sunday.
Otherwise, expect to start out with mostly a cool trend, with
overnight temperatures dipping down into the low to mid 30s, and
the northern panhandle possibly getting down into the upper 20s.
Could see some northerly winds increase out of Lynn Canal, but
uncertainty in low strength and has lead to less winds for now.
&&
.AVIATION.../through Thursday morning/
Remnants of strong front form yesterday continue to depart SE out
of the AOR, leaving predominate VFR flight conditions in its wake
with CIGS generally AoA 4000ft and unrestricted visbys. Behind the
front, moving into a showery regime with hit or miss rain showers
expected to impact the SEAK terminals through the TAF period as a
low in the NE Gulf transits SE-ward and weakens through Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning. With this regime, expect VFR flight
conditions to prevail through the period, with likely reduced
visibilities down to 2 to 4SM and gusty winds within any passing
shower. Not seeing much lightning activity this morning, however
could still see the occasional strike across the NE Gulf from
Yakutat to Sitka, although high forecast confidence not as dense
in coverage or intensity as yesterday. No LLWS expected through
the TAF period. Winds remain around 10 kts or less through the
day, outside of Skagway and Haines which will continue to see
slightly stronger winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
possible into the afternoon before all terminal winds diminish
overnight to near calm and variable after 09z Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Conditions over the Gulf and
outer coastal waters this morning continue to trend down for winds.
Buoy observations show most places getting down to 20 kt or less
with a few reporting less than 10 kt. The low pressure located near
Prince William Sound will continue to bring onshore flow and showers
for the next few days before weakening. Some of these showers could
have a few rumbles of thunder but are not expected to be too
significant. Main concern for the coastal and Gulf waters will be
the elevated seas that are expected to continue for the next few
days. WSW swell will continue to bring elevated seas before the
swell influence decreases Thursday afternoon and we see wave heights
start to diminish. Until then, seas are expected to be closer to 10
to 14 ft for today.
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the Inner channels this morning
have dissipated significantly with most places down to 15 kt or
less. A few places still are holding out with some 20 kt sustained
winds that might persist through the day today. Otherwise, winds
will continue to be on a downward trend for the next few days as the
low currently located over Prince William Sound continues to weaken
before high pressure builds in the Interior. With high pressure
setting up in the Interior for the end of the week, offshore flow is
expected to develop. At this time, wind speeds are not expected to
be significant but this could change if a low pressure does pass
south of the area for the weekend.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
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