387
FXAK68 PAFC 291336
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKDT Fri May 29 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The overall general pattern of a nearly stationary, vertically
stacked low is anchored in the Gulf of Alaska. Its shortwave
extending from this low remains near the Yukon and is rotating
westward through the Copper River Basin. Showers under northerly
flow are on-going this morning across the Wrangell Mountains,
southeastern Copper River Basin, and the Valdez-Cordova area.
The potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms will return
this afternoon along with sea breezes near the coast. A coastal
ridge will develop today that will allow for southerly gap winds
to develop through Turnagain Arm, Copper River, Knik River, and
other southerly valley/terrain gaps.
Although there is more convective potential today than there was
yesterday, limiting factors for thunderstorm development would be
from increased cloud cover that would limit surface heating and
its ability to destabilize the atmosphere over the southern tier
of Southcentral. Second, the upper level features are quite
complex, with a plethora of shortwaves and vorticity maxima moving
through a short-wave ridge. Continued northerly flow across the
Alaska Range will lead to more unstable conditions over interior
Southcentral, especially across the northern Susitna Valley and
Talkeetna Mountains. The complexity of the set-up makes it
difficult to pinpoint areas of convective initiation. Based on
overall level of instability (and taking into account climatology
preferred areas for initiation) the most likely areas for
convection are the northern portions of the Susitna Valley and
Copper Basin as well as the Talkeetna Mountains southward to the
Front Range Chugach near Anchorage. Simple advection could cause
some of these to move over populated areas of the Matanuska Valley
and Anchorage. Thunderstorm potential is higher over the interior
then southward across the Talkeetna Mountains to the Mat Valley.
As we head to the weekend, the weak upper level shortwave ridge
will sit overhead while a weak shortwave drops southward from the
Interior and stalls along/near the Alaska Range. It`s looking
increasingly likely that moisture will be trapped beneath the
ridge and lead to mostly cloudy skies over the weekend (with just
an occasional break of sun). A loss of northerly flow will lead to
a slight cooling of the airmass and more stable conditions. This
will lead to lower coverage of showers and generally lighter
rainfall within any showers. Increasing southerly flow up Cook
Inlet will keep the population centers dry (or mostly dry). The
cloud cover and coolish airmass means temperatures will max out in
the 50s for most areas.
Lastly, it is worth highlighting that much warmer and sunnier
weather remains on track for next week.
-SEB/Rux
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
As of this morning, most of Southwest Alaska has been locked in
with low stratus, areas of mist, and fog. Surface analysis shows a
subtle ridge axis draped along the Alaska Peninsula into
Southwest Alaska, which has set up a low-level inversion that has
trapped in incoming moisture/cloud cover riding under the
inversion from the northeast from scattering out of the area. The
consensus from the guidance that has initialized low ceilings and
visibility keeps areas of fog in the region through 18z or so this
morning.
Elsewhere, fairly weak upper level waves moving southward from
the northern Bering Sea have helped to drive a weak area of low
pressure and surface trough southeastward across the southern
Bering and toward the Central/Eastern Aleutians. Model guidance
indicates that surface high pressure builds across the Bering in
the wake of this low pressure system through this afternoon,
suppressing the overall storm track to the south for much of the
short term.
Meanwhile, 500 mb easterly waves rounding the top of a large
upper level low over the Gulf will move over Southwest Alaska
today and tomorrow. With added daytime heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates, isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity for this afternoon is expected, particularly favoring
the areas from Crooked Creek to Lime Village. Saturday afternoon
looks very similar to Friday afternoon pattern-wise, so prepare
for at least another day of more diurnally driven isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms with a few lightning strikes across
the Kuskokwim Valley.
Looking back over the Bering, the aforementioned ridge of high
pressure nudges eastward Sunday, which allows for a high end small
craft Kamchatka front to move towards the Western Aleutians. With
high pressure still in control across the Bering, this front will
become blocked from progressing eastward and stall out and weaken
through Monday.
Lastly, models are indicating that a stronger front from a low
pressure system lifts northward from the North Pacific heading
into the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. There are some notable
differences among the global models, but they are generally in
agreement of a front coming close to, if not crossing the Alaska
Peninsula early next week with rain and gusty winds.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
A high pressure ridge will dominate across the Bering Sea and
extend into the western mainland Alaska Wednesday through
Saturday, keeping conditions generally stable and dry over Western
Alaska, the Aleutian Islands and the Bering Sea. Marine activity
should remain fairly quiet under this setup, with little chance of
widespread precipitation or significant weather impacts in those
far western zones.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level low will stay anchored well south
over the southern Gulf of Alaska, limiting any deep moisture reach
into Southcentral coastal areas. Expect only light or isolated
showers at times rather than heavier or organized rainfall along
the Southcentral coast from the Alaska Peninsula through the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound region. Overall the pattern
points to a relatively quiet stretch of weather across
Southcentral and Western Alaska, with no major precipitation
events or hazards highlighted through the weekend.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR expected. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will
return by late this afternoon lasting through tonight with gusts
up to 25 kt. A chance for showers will also be possible this
afternoon. Low confidence that a ceiling between 3,500 and 5,000
ft could develop Saturday morning as low-level moisture remains
and the atmosphere stabilizes.
&&
$$
692
FXAK69 PAFG 291411
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
611 AM AKDT Fri May 29 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad scale troughing continues over the state today situated between
low pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean and Gulf of Alaska. As
high pressure builds over Siberia, a cool front extending from the
Arctic low will push farther south across the Interior today,
supporting showers and thunderstorm chances into the weekend.
Widespread rain showers are possible across the Upper Tanana Valley
and Alaska Range through Sunday with total precipitation amounts
between 0.30" and 0.40" possible. Winds ahead of and along the front
will be gusty at times before shifting towards the south/southwest
behind the front. By early next week, warmer and drier conditions
are expected as high pressure over Siberia and Canada build further
inland.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
the southern Interior this afternoon ahead of and along the
front. Thunderstorm coverage decreases behind the front, with
the highest chances for lightning in the Upper Tanana Valley and
lower Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend.
- High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s through the
weekend with a warming trend into the low 70s expected by
Tuesday.
- Localized moderate to heavy rain showers are possible for the
Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range through Sunday, with
precipitation amounts totaling as high as 0.30" and 0.40"
possible.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
southern Interior and lower Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon as
the front moves south. Showers and thunderstorm chances decrease
through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
- Gusty north/northeast winds through the Bering Strait gradually
weaken today. Winds shift towards the west/southwest behind the
front, with gusty conditions possible across higher elevations
early next week.
- Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through the
weekend before steadily increasing to around 70F in the valleys
by Tuesday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Temperatures will remain in the mid 20s today across the North
Slope, warming into the lower 30s by Sunday. Highs may reach
the upper 60s along the southern slopes of the Brooks Range by
Tuesday.
- Gusty north winds through the Brooks Range passes continue today
with winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. Winds will shift
towards the west/southwest by Saturday behind the front.
- Low clouds and patchy fog continue this morning across the North
Slope, with clearer skies expected this weekend into next week
as winds weaken and offshore flow sets up along the coast.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Friday through Sunday night.
Broad scale troughing continues over the state today situated
between low pressure systems over the Arctic Ocean and the Gulf of
Alaska. Both of these lows will gradually be pushed east as high
pressure builds over Siberia this weekend. A cool front extending
from the Arctic low continues to push south across the state today
following a northeast to southwest orientation. Along and ahead of
the front, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to impact the southern Interior and Alaska Range. Wetting
rains are likely across the Upper Tanana Valley and Alaska Range
this afternoon as the front stalls over the area and additional
moisture is advected from southeast. Storm total precipitation
amounts could reach as high as 0.30 to 0.40" through Saturday.
Behind the front, north/northeast winds through the Brooks Range
gradually weaken and shift towards the west/southwest by Sunday. A
similar trend is expected across the Interior as gusty
north/northeast winds ahead of the front shift towards the
south/southwest post frontal passage. As the pressure gradient over
the state tightens on Sunday, expect southerly winds gusting up to
30 to 40 mph possible through the Alaska Range passes and across
higher terrain of the Interior.
By early next week, broad scale ridging settles over the state as
high pressure builds over Siberia and Canada. This pattern will
allow for warmer and drier conditions over Northern Alaska as a warm
and dry airmass is brought in from the west. However, models are
continuing to hint at the potential for a mid-level disturbance from
the Arctic Ocean to dig south over the North Slope on Monday.
Although there is still some model variability on the exact location
and strength of this low, forecast confidence is leaning more
towards the low tracking east over the Brooks Range before moving
off into Canada by Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected once again
today, though they are gradually moving farther south. The bulk of
the thunderstorm activity will be from Eagle to Galena south towards
the Northern AK Range. These thunderstorm chances continue to move
south on Saturday with most of them around the AK Range, then Sunday
consists of a slight chance for thunderstorms near the AlCan Border.
The highest chances for wetting rains will be south and east of
Fairbanks, towards Northway and in the Northern AK Range as a front
interacts with moisture from the Gulf of Alaska today. Rainfall
amounts in the Upper Tanana Valley may be as high as 0.30.
Otherwise, south and west of Fairbanks, wetting rains will be more
isolated in nature. Temperatures remain cool, in the 50s and low 60s
today but do gradually warm into the low to mid 60s this weekend.
Min RHs will be around 30 to 40% in the Central/Eastern Interior
with some isolated 20s in the Western Interior from the Kobuk Valley
to Kaltag. RHs will drop in the northern Interior this weekend with
more widespread 25 to 30% readings from the Yukon Flats to the
Koyukuk/Kobuk Valleys, but remain around 30 to 40% south of there.
Winds will be fairly light, outside of any erratic thunderstorm wind
gusts today. There will be an uptick in northeast winds in the
northern Interior on Saturday, but gusts will only be up to 15 mph
for most spots. On Sunday, the winds turn southerly once more
through the AK Range passes and over the higher terrain of the
Interior. Sustained winds may be as high as 20 to 30 mph with gusts
up to 40 mph. Next week looks like a drying week with more sunshine
and the potential for warmer temperatures, potentially getting well
into the 70s for portions of the Interior. As of now, thunderstorm
activity looks to be minimal through the middle of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Yukon River: River Watch has concluded as of 8 AM Wednesday. Ice
continues to move through the channels into the mouth with relative
ease and with upstream ice moving unhindered. Residents should still
use caution near the banks as the ice run continues to be very
dynamic and water levels can fluctuate quickly.
All Flood Watches and Warnings have expired.
St. Mary`s: At 840pm Tuesday, flood waters continue to slowly
recede. Due to the extensive high water and inundation, this process
could take several days. Residents should use caution in and around
areas that were flooded.
Emmonak: Waters continue to recede. The roads to the airport remain
impassable by vehicle at this time. Residents should use caution in
and around high water.
Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
hydro information.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through Thursday.
The transition toward a warmer, more stable regime remains on track
as an Arctic trough digs over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range
on Sunday before weakening and exiting into Canada. While this
feature maintains lingering thunderstorm chances for the Eastern
Interior through Sunday evening, building high pressure from the
Siberian ridge will quickly stabilize the atmosphere from west to
east. Increased southerly flow over the Alaska Range on Sunday may
lead to localized drying and reduced precipitation chances for the
Tanana Valley before the ridge fully takes hold by Monday. Through
the middle of next week, the strengthening ridge will promote warmer
and drier conditions across the Interior, with daytime highs
expected to reach the low 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Clearing
skies are expected along the North Slope as offshore flow develops,
while stable conditions prevail along the West Coast as high
pressure builds over the region.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&
$$
Santiago
Bianco - Fire Weather
Satcher - Extended
370
FXAK67 PAJK 291733 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
933 AM AKDT Fri May 29 2026
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for the 18z taf issuance.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Rain showers and lighter winds Friday
- Potential for thunderstorms Saturday.
SHORT TERM...
Friday, the center of a broad longwave trough is positioned
across the Gulf of Alaska, serving as the catalyst for continued
onshore flow, cloud cover, and light rain. As this system weakens
and retrogrades, the polar jet will become meridional, allowing a
more substantial shortwave to rotate north Saturday. Keeping
things simple, rain showers this afternoon, becoming more
organized and heavier Saturday. The forecasted showers Saturday
will likely drive some thunderstorm development, with gusty winds
and small hail, perhaps a lightning strike or two. This one last
hurrah of moderate to heavy rain showers will be followed by
several days of warmer and drier weather starting late Sunday,
thanks in part to a large closed low forming in the southwestern
gulf. More info below.
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/ Overall upper level
pattern will be in a state of transition across the state and the
Gulf of Alaska for Sunday as we switch out of a broad cool upper
trough that dominated the weather over the area this week. The
pattern will be switching to a closed upper low over the NW
Pacific with weak upper ridging over the southern part of Alaska
and the Yukon.
At the surface, this translates to a somewhat strong area of low
pressure over the NW Pacific with a ridge of higher pressure
building over the panhandle for the first half of next week. With
this pattern the trend is toward warmer, drier, and sunnier
weather especially for Monday into Wednesday. Sunday will have the
beginnings of the warm up, but onshore flow will keep at least a
chance of showers around. Tuesday is still looking to be the
warmest day of the forecast with widespread highs in the 60s and
70s likely (isolated areas of near 80 in the southern panhandle
are possible) as offshore flow becomes the strongest at that point
likely canceling out afternoon sea breezes in some areas. Not
expecting any areas to exceed record highs on Tuesday, but some
areas could get close (Record highs for Tuesday for many areas are
in the upper 70s to mid 80s). Marine layer low clouds in the gulf
and along the outer coast may not be much of a factor for this
period as low level flow is generally out of the NE to E direction
which will likely keep those low clouds well offshore.
At the moment, the nicer weather is not expected to last much
beyond mid week. An easterly wave from BC is looking likely to
move into the panhandle from SE to NW possibly starting as early
as Wednesday morning (though it could be as late as Wednesday
evening) bringing another round of rain and clouds to the
panhandle especially from Cape Fairweather south and eastward.
Temperatures by Thursday may be down to more seasonal readings
with the clouds and rain moving in (normal highs for this time of
year are mid 50s to 60).
AVIATION...Persistent shower activity remains the main concern of
aviation today. Most areas are VFR this morning, but there are a
few areas of MVFR ceilings down to 2500 ft due to showers. Overall
that pattern continues into Saturday with more frequent showers
expected midday today and during the day on Saturday. The Saturday
showers will start in the southern panhandle in the morning and
spread north through the day. Can not completely rule out a slight
chance of thunder for the southern panhandle toward Saturday
afternoon, however cloud cover and showers should be well
established keeping surface temps cooler so stronger convection is
not likely. Strongest winds continue to be in N Lynn and Skagway
with surface winds of 15 to 20 kt from the S today. Expect those
winds to continue into the evening before diminishing down to 10
kt overnight, and then increasing to 15 kt again tomorrow morning.
MARINE...
Outside:
As of 0400 Friday, ASCAT wind passes showed a weak low center near
56.69N 144.22W, with coastal buoys showing ESE winds of gentle to
moderate breezes. Sea state was primarily decaying SW swell; 6 to
8 ft at 11 to 13 seconds with southerly wind chop. For today,
southerly winds continue along the coast, with rain showers and
swell continuing to lay down. Saturday the gust factor will
increase, with gusts likely reaching fresh to strong breezes.
Furthermore, there exists potential to see some thunderstorms
along the coast; keep a watchful eye to your south. Dominant wave
system will switch from SW swell to southerly wind waves, with
underlying, but almost negligible, southerly swell from the far
south Pacific. Significant heights near 4 to 6 ft and period of 7
to 10 seconds.
Inside:
Essentially a cut and copy wind forecast through the inside
Friday, with a little less wind and rain showers than we saw
Thursday. Highest winds of fresh breezes will continue to be in
northern Lynn Canal. Saturday southerly winds increase a bit
across the region with the gust factor increasing. Wind gusts
Saturday will likely reach fresh to strong breezes by and large.
Small hail could also fall under the darkest clouds, foreshadowing
the potential to see some lightning, especially south of Icy
Strait. For folks on the water, keep a weather eye on the horizon,
NOAA WX radio tuned in, and have safe harbor in reach. Late
Sunday rain showers end, with much warmer and drier conditions
expected into Wednesday.
One note on thunderstorms Saturday. Per NWS definition, a Severe
Thunderstorm means wind gusts greater than 58mph and/or hail
greater than 1 inch. For now, we are not forecasting Severe
Thunderstorm development. Semantics aside, the strongest of storms
Saturday could produce some lightning and erratic wind gusts near
25 to 35 knots. So for folks in smaller recreational vessels and
sea kayaks, these conditions can be pretty intense. Check
weather.gov/Juneau before heading out on the water.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
