138
FXAK68 PAFC 081405
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Message:
Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats strong winds and dangerously low wind chills.
Winds will begin to weaken later today, but remaining gusty into the
overnight hours. Blowing snow will subside with decreasing winds.
The cold airmass will be with us well into the workweek.
...Active Warnings and Advisories...
- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.
- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 45 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the Knik Arm
from Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along
the coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.
- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect through 4PM Monday for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
80 mph expected. Wind chills will remain near -40F.
- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40 to 50
below.
Discussion:
The Gulf low is starting to elongate as a large ridge over the
western Bering starts to push eastwards and a NE/SW oriented front,
and associated trough, start to push through southern Alaska towards
the Gulf. Scattered showers are still ongoing over the Gulf near the
vicinity of the low, but will shift south and east today as the Gulf
low merges with the approaching trough. Kodiak Island should finally
see improving conditions this morning from the moderate to heavy
snow and strong winds as the low shifts east; however, periods of
light snow will be possible as the incoming front approaches then
moves out into the Gulf.
Strong gap winds that have been ongoing for several days across the
Matanuska Valley, Knik Arm/Cook Inlet, Valdez, and Thompson Pass
will start to gradually decrease today as the pressure gradient
starts to relax. However, gusty winds are likely to continue...just
not as strong as we have seen over the past few days. Valdez may see
periods of strong winds continue as the gradient restrengthens later
this week.
Cold temperatures look to continue for the foreseeable future as
several more reinforcing shot of cold, arctic air continue through
the week. As a result, dangerous wind chills will also continue
through much of the week with the coldest temperatures and wind
chills expected across the Copper River Basin where temperatures
will drop into the -20s to -30s and wind chill values of -40 to -50
degrees.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Thursday morning)...
Active Products:
* Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley from Kalskag to Stoney until 6PM AKST Monday.
* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
Including Nunivak Island and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta until
1PM AKST Monday.
Discussion:
Very cold temperatures and gusty winds persist across Southwest
Alaska this morning with wind chills 20 to 35 below zero expected
to persist through the day today, especially for communities near
the Western Alaska Range including Lime Village, Sparrevohn, and
Stoney. The strongest winds continue to be observed across Nelson
Island, including the communities of Toksook Bay and Tununak.
Strong winds continue to loft the remaining transportable snow in
these communities, resulting in periods of reduced visibilities
down to under two miles at times. Winds will gradually begin to
diminish throughout today and through the early part of this
week. Additionally, conditions will remain dry and mostly clear
through much of this week as high pressure continues to sit over
Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutians.
The next front/low combinations enter the western Bering Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of rainfall and
potentially some gale-force winds to the Western Aleutians.
Models are in fairly good agreement on the idea that the system
remains mainly confined to the Western Aleutians and the western
Bering as the strong upper level ridge remains centered over the
Aleutian Chain through midweek.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...
The long-term pattern will continue to be dominated by a strong
ridge in the central Bering Sea with quiet conditions across the
Central Aleutians since they will be mostly under the core of the
ridge axis. Across the Western Aleutians, weather will be a little
more active there as the area will be upstream/behind the ridge
and within southerly flow. A weak front will move over the Western
Aleutians both Thursday and another one may possibly clip the
area on Friday. Light rain chances are better for the system on
Thursday as the system on Friday may be a little too far west.
Each system will bring small-craft to gale-force winds across the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians. Rain chances decrease
Saturday and Sunday across the Western Aleutians. The Eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and across the Southern
Mainland will remain downstream/ahead of the large Bering ridge
through the long-term. This will promote more northerly flow, cold
temperatures, and windy conditions; this is especially true
through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. Most of the domain, except for the Western
Aleutians, stays dry through the period. The only exception maybe
Friday into Saturday when a weak shortwave drops down from the
north and brings some light snow to the Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Copper River Basin.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy with stiff
northerly winds coming down the Knik Arm and clipping the west
side of Anchorage. Winds decrease significantly going eastward,
likely such that there may be a noticeable difference in speed on
the west side of the terminal vs. east side at times.
&&
$$
449
FXAK69 PAFG 081333
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions across parts of the Interior will be ending
today, with colder weather setting back in. A round of light snow
is expected to move across the North Slope from this afternoon
through Wednesday, but accumulations are likely to be limited.
Elsewhere, temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero
in western coastal locations to the -30s if not colder in
Interior valleys will be possible from tonight through Wednesday
night. Beyond that, another system is possible on Thursday and
Friday which could bring light snow to much of Northern Alaska.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- With minimal cloud cover, lows in the 30s and 40s below zero
persist in colder/valley locations through much of the week.
- Wind will continue to diminish through today, with nearly calm
winds by this evening.
- Blowing snow will persist along the Richardson and Parks
Highway in the southern slopes of the AK Range while gradually
decreasing today as winds weaken there.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Breezy conditions will gradually weaken today, with generally
weak or calm winds tonight.
- Cold and calmer weather persists thereafter with lows in the
single digits above/below zero along the coast and teens to
about 30F below zero in the Interior through much of the week.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Cold and breezy conditions continue.
- A front brings clouds and areas of snow to the Slope and Brooks
Range on Monday and Tuesday. Light snow will persist into
Wednesday.
- Accumulations look to be around 1 inch or less along the coast
and up to 2 inches in Atigun and Anaktuvuk Passes.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 545 dm ridge is centered over the Bering Sea, with a 497 mb
trough over the Canadian Archipelago. Clear skies are in place
across roughly the southeastern half of mainland ALaska, with 850
mb temperatures over eastern areas well into the -20s. Moving into
this evening and tonight, a shortwave will ride along the top of
the ridge and bring periods of snow to the North Slope and
northeastern Interior through Wednesday before moving out of the
area. Colder air will move into the North Slope from the
northwest behind the snow with a surface cold front from Monday
evening into Tuesday, with increasing westerly winds across the
Arctic Coast, especially in eastern areas. Drier conditions are
likely across the Interior with limited cloud cover in place
before additional chances for snow return Thursday.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Chances for snow and, in the YK Delta region, potentially some
mixed precipitation/rain, will return to much of Northern Alaska
beginning early Thursday as the ridge over the Bering and Chukchi
Seas shifts east and a low on its northern edge shifts off of
Siberia into the Arctic. After the low moves off of Siberia, it
will likely track east along or over the Arctic coast of Alaska,
bringing windy conditions there (and potentially blowing snow with
some visibility restrictions). This may also bring with it a
broad area of cloudy conditions with potentially a few inches of
snowfall to much of Alaska north of the Alaska Range. This would
also yield warmer weather, with many areas rising back into the
single digits above zero (double digits in western locations).
Colder and drier conditions will resume by the latter half of the
weekend, with low temperatures broadly in the -20s and -30s
again.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-852-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
&&
$$
DS
197
FXAK67 PAJK 080625 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
925 PM AKST Sun Dec 7 2025
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Moderate to heavy snow continues over the northern panhandle
and will continue to spread southward into central and southern
panhandle as temperatures decrease.
- Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with many
areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Wind
chills along White Pass dipping below -25 Sunday night.
SHORT TERM...Complicated pattern through Monday with multiple
hazards, primarily delineated between the north and south
panhandle.
Overall, we have a decaying low pressure in the western gulf,
generating multiple shortwaves moving into the panhandle from the
southwest, bringing both additional waves of moisture and showers.
In Canada to the north, a deep inversion up to 700 mb is generating
strong katabatic flow out of interior passes. This arctic air is the
main element which is contributing to the very cold temperatures in
the north, and more rounds of snow for the south. At time of
writing, the arctic boundary is currently north of Petersburg over
to just south of Sitka.
For the north, very cold katabatic flow is currently generating
gusts up to 30 mph, low 20s weather with dewpoints in the low single
digits for both Haines and Skagway, the two towns mostly exposed to
the gradient direction. Currently expecting the temperature to
further drop through tomorrow from the cold pool in the Yukon
continuing to strengthen, radiative cooling from skies clearing
tomorrow morning, and present snow preventing any small amount of
solar radiation from being able to be absorbed by the ground.
Looking to see temperatures well below 0 on the Klondike Highway,
single digits in Haines and Skagway and teens in Icy Strait tonight,
dropping collectively around 10 degrees for tomorrow nights low.
This combined with strong winds, particularly on the Klondike, is
expected to cause wind chills exceeding -40 F by tomorrow night.
Several cold weather advisories have also been issued for Haines and
Juneau.
For the south, however, Monday will see a developing low move in
quickly from the southwest over southern Prince of Wales Island.
This in combination with the arctic boundary, which is expected to
drop into Sumner Strait by tomorrow morning, look to generate
moderate to strong snow rates for mainly northern Prince of Wales
Island, Wrangell, and Petersburg. Certainly a good deal of
uncertainty associated with this system, as too much cold air, or
the low pressure passing much further south than expected, will sap
any moisture pushing up from the south. As it stands now, the warm
front pushing up from the south ahead of the low will set up over
Prince of Wales Island from about Craig to Ketchikan. South of this
line is expected to be mainly rain, driven by the warm temperatures
aloft, north of this line as it pushes northward, is expected to be
either mix or snow. Therefore, the northern half of Prince of Wales
Island appears to initially be in the line of fire for this event.
Strong liquid equivalent rates possibly exceeding a tenth of an
inch and lighter winds look to keep temperatures north of the line
well below freezing.
As the low moves in, currently expecting to see the main band of
precipitation rotate to vertically to move the trowal axis to north
south, with southeasterly winds further enhancing the topographic
effects on the eastern side of the island. The big question is
whether the temperatures will be able to hold of for long enough to
stay all snow, to which cause PoW will receive warning levels of
snow. Unfortunately, confidence was not high enough for this
solution, and therefore an advisory was issued instead. This will
need to be watched carefully going forward.
For Wrangell, expecting to see outflow out of the Stikine valley
to keep at least the airport as all snow, and this location will
be highly dependent on how fast this low pressure system moves
eastward. For Petersburg, the strength of the arctic boundary
throws uncertainty into the total snow amounts, with possibly
sub-saturation keeping snow type as mainly plates with much less
accumulation. This is entirely assuming that the cold air does not
entirely evaporate any falling precipitation into Petersburg.
Ultimately, any amount of snow for any of the aforementioned areas
is expected to be roughly a 6 to 9 hour window of heaviest rates,
mainly associated with the warm push northward beginning during the
day on Monday and continuing through the evening.
LONG TERM...An arctic boundary continues to move southward over the
southern panhandle at the start of the mid range and will likely
move south of the panhandle by mid week. Building high pressure in
NW Canada and interior Alaska is creating offshore flow and ushering
colder continental air through the northern panhandle. This air is
very cold with 850 mb temps plummeting into the -15 to -25 C range
by mid week across the northern panhandle and near -10 C over the
south. At sea level this will translate to overnight lows ranging
from single digits above or below zero for the north to teens and
20s for the south.
Daytime highs will struggle to reach the 20s for the north and into
the 30s for the south as we progress through the week. Coldest
temperatures look to occur Monday night through Wednesday night, but
sub freezing temperatures are likely to stick around into next
weekend as well. The panhandle from Icy Strait northward will be
watched closely as many locations will be approaching their
criteria for cold weather advisories or extreme cold warnings
(especially the Haines and Klondike Highways) from early to mid
week. As of this forecast discussion, an extreme cold warning was
issued for the Klondike Highway from Monday night through Tuesday
morning for extremely cold temperatures with wind chills as low
as -40 degrees.
Strong outflow winds will be ushering in these frigid temperatures,
blowing along many northern panhandle channels, with gale force
winds lasting through most of the week. The strongest winds will
be located along Lynn Canal and Chatham Strait, with elevated
winds also coming out of Taku Inlet as well as blowing out into
the gulf from gaps along the NE gulf coast. A strong 1035 mb high
in the Yukon is the main driver of this outflow and it will persist
and strengthen to 1050 mb by late next week. Expect gusty winds
out of many of the outflow areas in the northern panhandle to
start with, but expect outflow out of areas farther south through
the week as the Yukon high expands into northern British Columbia
by late week. With these winds and the cold air that it is
bringing, a few secondary effects will be noticeable. First, wind
chills will be rather frigid reaching into the negative teens and
possibly colder in the north most of the week. Second, is that
freezing spray will become a more widespread problem for many
marine areas in the inner channels and along the NE gulf coast.
The freezing spray could become heavy at times in Lynn Canal, near
Taku Inlet, and northern parts of Glacier Bay throughout the
week.
Otherwise, most of the panhandle will be dry through the mid and
long range except for possibly the south. A series of lows track
into the BC coast and could send some of their precip into the
southern panhandle throughout the week. Given how cold the
atmosphere is expected to be the precip, when it does fall, will
mostly be in the form of snow. Highest accumulations would likely
be earlier Tuesday, while additional accumulations will likely be
low for the mid week period. There is the possibility of a
another snow event for the south next Friday into Saturday with a
couple inches of accumulation possible but storm track is
uncertain at this time for that system.
AVIATION...Aviation weather is a mixed bag of varying ceilings,
visibility and precip type as another band of precipitation moves
north through the central and northern panhandle while cold air is
being introduced at lower elevations. Rain/snow line has been
inching southward through the evening and has reached Kake as of 9
pm. north of that line ceilings and vis have dropped to MVFR and
IFR due to snowfall up to Hoonah and Juneau (VFR north of that due
to the strong outflow drying things out) while south of that line
occasional MVFR, but mostly VFR conditions are present with less
organized and less frequent rain showers moving in from the gulf.
Periods of precipitation expected to continue from Icy Strait
southward tonight with MVFR to IFR in snow while VFR to MVFR
conditions will continue where it rains with the rain/snow line
continuing to inch southward. Into Monday expect more VFR
conditions for the north, but a lot of outflow winds through
passes and channels (up to 30 to 40 kt) some low level wind shear
as well from stronger n winds blowing over mountain tops and ridge
lines. Highest of these winds will likely be Monday afternoon and
evening. Meanwhile the south will see another surge of precip move
in and with the cold air still moving south many areas will see it
as snow with the accompanying drop in vis and ceiling (likely to
IFR) starting in the morning and lasting into the evening.
MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
The outside waters forecast will largely be dominated by the
outflow winds from density differences between the panhandle and
north into Canada. Strong gales to storm force winds are expected
out of interior passes, Cross Sound, and Chatham Strait for the
next 36 hours. Expecting to see an increase in winds tomorrow from
cold temperatures further being enhanced in Canada. For more
information, see the short term. For seas, expecting to see
upwards of 15 ft seas associated with winds blowing out of
interior passes for the next few days.
Inside (Inner Channels):
Expecting to see a mostly stagnant pattern over the next few days,
but an impactful one. Northerly winds in Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal,
and Taku Inlet are all expected to exceed gale to strong gale for
multiple days, with the upper arms of Glacier Bay and northern
Lynn Canal expected to see heavy freezing spray for multiple days.
Looking to see the stronger northerlies to extend south over the
next 36 hours as the Monday low/energy departs into British
Columbia. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected to stick
around for the central panhandle into mid week.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ318.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon AKST Tuesday for
AKZ318.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 PM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ319.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to noon AKST
Tuesday for AKZ320-325.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ321.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ325.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ326-
329.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Monday for AKZ327.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Monday for AKZ328.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Storm Warning for PKZ651.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-053-641>644-661>664-
671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ034>036-652-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ/EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC
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