700
FXAK68 PAFC 310553
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
953 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Tonight through Tuesday evening)...
Light northeasterly flow remains in place across Southcentral as
the weakening Gulf low continues to pull away from the region.
More stable air is gradually filtering southward across the area,
resulting in fewer showers and a decreasing threat for wetting
rains through the weekend. While isolated to scattered diurnally
driven showers remain possible each afternoon, particularly across
the higher terrain of the Susitna Valley and portions of the
Copper River Basin, coverage will be noticeably less than what has
been observed over the past several days. Thunderstorm potential
remains minimal through the period, except possibly across
northern parts of the Copper River Basin this afternoon and
evening.
The larger weather story shifts to the Gulf as a strong low
pressure system lifts into the southwestern Gulf Sunday night
into Monday. At the same time, strong high pressure building along
the northern Gulf Coast will tighten the pressure gradient across
coastal Southcentral. Easterly to southeasterly winds will
increase Sunday and persist into Monday, especially favored
terrain gaps. Gap winds through Turnagain Arm, the Knik River
Valley, and Copper River Delta will pick back up both Sunday and
Monday afternoons, while Kodiak Island can expect increasing
winds and periods of moderate rain as the Gulf system approaches.
The strongest winds are expected across marine areas, including
portions of Shelikof Strait and the Barren Islands vicinity, where
gale-force winds appear likely Sunday night through Tuesday
morning.
Looking towards mid week, a building ridge over mainland Alaska
continues to support a warming and drying trend for much of
Southcentral. After what has felt like endless days of clouds,
showers and cooler temperatures, the forecast will finally see
increasing sunshine and temperatures gradually climbing.
-LM/AS
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
Over the next 12 to 24 hours, a 1027 mb high in the Bering Sea
will continue to slowly move southward as a trough drops down
from the Arctic. In the North Pacific, a 1000 mb North Pacific
low strengthens to 990 mb and moves northward allowing its front
to move into the Gulf of Alaska.
Cumulus clouds began forming mid-morning across the Kuskokwim
Valley. Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms from Aniak
through Lower Kalskag west to Bethel during the late morning
hours moved southwest toward Bristol bay this afternoon. In its
place, continued and increasingly more widespread convection
formed. This widespread convection will persist through the late
evening hours even reaching the Bristol Bay coast before
dissipating. Another day of widespread rain showers will persist
tomorrow as a second trough moves through the Kuskokwim Valley.
Temperatures will slowly increase early next week.
Signals of the North Pacific low moving faster than model
guidance suggests has been noticed in today`s satellite images.
Therefore, placement of the low is farther northeast then
previously mentioned but is inline with surface observations.
Widespread small craft to storm warning winds are expected in the
Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon and evening.
-Johnston
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...
Monday`s Gulf low should be drifting southwestward back into the
North Pacific by Tuesday. A remnant front from the low is forecast
to slide westward across the Alaska Peninsula while steadily
deteriorating. High pressure then builds over the Bering and
interior Alaska for Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer
temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances from strong
daytime heating. A new North Pacific frontal system tracks into
the Aleutians by early Friday with renewed showers and the
potential for gusty southeasterly winds from Adak into Cold Bay as
the front progresses quickly eastward into Friday night.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue. A light
northwesterly wind this afternoon is expected to shift and become
southerly by this evening. Winds are then expected to increase and
become more gusty late this evening into early morning Sunday.
These winds may diminish for a time Sunday morning; however, a
tightening pressure gradient between a ridge building along the
coast and low pressure over the interior will likely lead to the
development of stronger southeasterly winds and gusts from late
Sunday morning through Sunday night. Gusts to around 35 mph are
likely over the terminal from around noon to 10pm. An isolated
rain shower over or in the vicinity of the terminal is also
possible by late this afternoon or evening.
&&
$$
592
FXAK69 PAFG 302256
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of a stationary front will be placed over the Alaska
Range and Upper Tanana Valley, supporting rain showers, downpours
and isolated thunderstorms today. On Sunday, there will be a lot
of moving parts that we`ll get into in the forecast analysis and
discussion section. Nonetheless, there is a chance for moderate to
heavy rain across the Western/Central Interior and southern
Brooks Range from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Winds will ramp up
Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday afternoon with
southwesterly gusts upwards of 45 mph above 1500ft elevation, and
35 mph in Interior valleys leading to some tricky travel possible.
Heading into the new work week, most of the lingering rain and
wind on Monday will exit during the evening and overnight, leaving
much drier and calmer weather by Tuesday as a ridge builds in.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Much drier weather overall today, showers and isolated
thunderstorms linger near the AK Range and Upper Tanana Valley
through tomorrow morning.
- Moderate rain with pockets of heavy rain is possible, if not,
probable over the Interior with a widespread 0.25 to 0.75"
expected from Fairbanks to Coldfoot, including the White
Mountains and Koyukuk Valley.
- Expect it to be windy Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
causing some wind swept heavy rain in spots. SW wind gusts
upwards of 45 mph over 1500ft elevation and 35 mph in Interior
valleys, excluding the Upper Tanana.
- Much calmer, drier and warmer weather returns on Tuesday with
our first 70s popping up around the Interior.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet weather persists with patches of dense fog over Norton
Sound and the YK delta Coast, otherwise partly to mostly sunny
elsewhere.
- Rain showers with a couple of thunderstorms develop Sunday
afternoon. These could come with pockets of heavy rain,
especially from Holy Cross northeast to Lake Minchumina.
- Gusty southwest winds are expected Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon with gusts upwards of 45 mph above 1500ft and
35 mph in Kuskokwim Valley.
- Much calmer, drier and warmer weather returns on Tuesday with
our first 70s popping up around the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Chilly weather persists with below normal temperatures through
early next week. Temperatures approach normal values on Tuesday.
- Areas of light snow move into the region on Sunday with less
than 1 inch of snow on the North Slope and 0.5 to 2 inches in
the northern Brooks Range.
- Gusty southerly winds up to 45 mph and moderate rain develops in
the southern Brooks Range on Sunday and persists through Monday
evening before ending thereafter. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to
0.50 inches are expected with localized higher amounts possible.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
It`s a bit of a messy pattern with a trough extending into the
Interior from a closed upper low in the Arctic, a closed upper low
in the Gulf as well as in the eastern Aleutians and a ridge in
eastern Siberia. All of this is what brought a stationary front
to the Interior last week. This stationary front has now gradually
shifted south over the AK Range which is where we expect the bulk
of the wet weather today into tomorrow morning. By the time
Sunday afternoon rolls around, the front will lift back to the
north and interact with a trough dipping south into the Brooks
Range. The details here are crucial and models are still
struggling with where to place the trough axis. The ECMWF/CMC cut
this trough into the ridge and push it over the Brooks Range then
into the Western Interior. This solution would bring the front
west, allowing for moderate rain in the Western and Central
Interior. The GFS however, keeps the trough axis over the Central
Brooks Range, then pushes it east as the ridge builds in behind
it. This solution would place the front farther east, bringing
most of the rain to the Central/Eastern Interior, but also cut off
the moisture from the southwest, leading to less rain all
together. There is some support for the GFS coming from the ECMWF
AI and GFS AI models. It`s hard to believe that this trough will
blast over the mountain range and into the ridge, like the
ECMWF/CMC are saying. We are taking more of a middle ground
approach, which is similar to the GFS and AI models. We expect
showers over the Western Interior beginning Sunday afternoon, but
the heaviest rain will be situated over the Central Interior with
lighter showers in the Eastern Interior. From Fairbanks to
Wiseman, expect 0.25 to 0.75" of rain from Sunday afternoon
through Monday afternoon. Some spots in the higher terrain may
receive 1.00", especially towards the Steese and Dalton Highway
summits. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts will be around 0.10 to 0.25"
with a higher end potential of 0.75" possible from Bettles to Lake
Minchumina. The higher rainfall totals are dependent on the
placement of the trough axis.
As if this weren`t enough, wind gusts will increase from the
south and west Sunday afternoon in the Interior and southern Brooks
Range. Expect them to be up to 45 mph above 1500ft and up to 35
mph in valleys outside of the Upper Tanana through Monday
afternoon. Regardless of the exact outcome, a wind swept rain is
expected across much of the Interior and southern Brooks Range.
All of the rain and wind will end late Monday evening as the
trough exits into Canada. This will allow for much drier, calmer
and warmer weather as the Siberian Ridge builds in from the west.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal on Tuesday with highs
in the 60s to low 70s. A warming trend may continue through the
middle of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally quiet on the fire weather side. Most of the isolated wet
thunderstorm chances today will be around the AK Range with a
slight tick north to the Kuskokwim and Tanana Valley Sunday
afternoon, though the chances are low. Southwest winds will pick
up in the Interior Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon with
gusts to 45 mph above 1500ft and 35 mph in the valleys.
Fortunately, there will be cool temperatures and high chances for
wetting rains. Temperatures remain cool with highs in the 50s and
low 60s through Monday. This changes on Tuesday as high
temperatures surge into the upper 60s to low 70s across much of
the Interior and parts of the West Coast. The middle of the week
features the warmest temperatures of the season with highs
persisting in the 60s and 70s. Min RHs are expected to be in the
teens and 20s with the lowest expected in the Eastern Interior
valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances remain low
through the middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No major concerns on the hydro front.
Sagavanirktok River: Some overflowing is occurring; however,
breakup along the Sag River has not begun yet. High temperatures
are expected to increase to around the mid to upper 30s and even
low 40s on Monday with low temps in the 20s and 30s (north to
south). Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest days with
highs in the 30s to near 40 along the coast and low 50s towards
the northern Brooks Range. Temperatures will then dip back down
later in the week, exact values are uncertain. Near the Sag River
source on the north Brook Range, high temperatures could reach
the mid 50s from Monday to Wednesday, with snow levels reaching
upwards of 4000 ft. Again, temperatures look to cool going into
the late week but continue to be above freezing.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There are no major concerns expected through next weekend. The
main feature we are monitoring are a Siberian ridge which will be
extending into the Interior and phasing with a ridge over Canada.
This would bring warmer, near to above normal temperatures
through the middle and end of the week across most of Northern
Alaska, including the North Slope and Brooks Range. The next
feature is an Arctic low which will try to push cooler
temperatures into the Interior by Friday or Saturday. Models are
in disagreement with how far south this low gets and how far
cooler air intrudes into the Interior. Nonetheless, after a brief
warm up on the North Slope and Brooks Range through mid week, it
does look to cool once again, most likely near or below normal.
The Interior is a little less certain, but expect warm
temperatures through the end of the week with cooling possible by
the weekend. There are no significant precipitation events or
wind events expected next week.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&
$$
Bianco
322
FXAK67 PAJK 310544
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
944 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2026
.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF Issuance...
&&
.AVIATION.../Through 6z Monday/...Widespread VFR CIGs prevail
across the panhandle with occasional dips to MVFR as scattered
showers blow through. Dips down to MVFR conditions may become more
widespread overnight, with low CIGs of 1500 to 2500 ft take hold.
VIS is less of an issue tonight, with the only concern being when
a heavier shower initially moves in. Showers are expected to
begin to clear from south to north overnight, starting within the
next few hours down south and taking hold up north through late
Sunday morning. As showers taper off through the early morning
hours, low CIGs will begin to lift and breaks in the clouds will
become apparent. By the later afternoon and into the evening
hours, skies will begin to largely clear out from south to north.
General sea breezes are expected with this daytime clearing,
though Northern Lynn Canal looks to hold onto sustained winds up
to 20 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts through the period. There is
a possibility of gusts in Skagway exceeding 30 kts at the peak of
the day, though based off persistence, this would not last for
more than a few hours through the early afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 305 PM AKDT Sat May 30 2026...
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Rain showers continue Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
chances for small hail and gusty erratic winds.
- Drier and warmer weather to start next week.
SHORT TERM...Little changes made to the short term forecast
Saturday as daytime heating and moist onshore flow at the surface
and aloft continues to bring showers to the panhandle this
afternoon. The broad vertically stacked low in the Gulf of Alaska
is following the script of weakening as the upper level
circulation retrogrades westward slightly, while still steering
occasional disturbances toward the panhandle. An initial weak
shortwave has moved through the region with the surface reflection
most noticeable offshore of Baranof Island where more enhanced
shower activity has been observed via radar and satellite. A more
robust upper level shortwave developing off of Haida Gwaii is
still expected to bring further enhanced showers to the panhandle
through the afternoon and evening hours, spreading northward into
Sunday morning. Vorticity advection aloft and some slightly cooler
air drawn from the parent low in the Gulf of Alaska should
provide enough support to allow these heavier showers to sustain
themselves as they progress towards the north of Frederick Sound.
Once again the primary impacts from these convective showers will be
locally heavy rain upwards of 0.25 inches in less than hour and
briefly reducing visibilities to 2 miles or less, as well as gusty
erratic winds up to 25 kt. With enough vertical development, ice
pellets could also mix in with these heavier showers. There remains
a slight chance for thunderstorm development for the southern
panhandle, though this will largely depend upon daytime heating
increasing lapse rates in the boundary layer.
Mid level ridging will start to build in Sunday, which will help to
clear out much of the cloud cover and inhibit shower development
later in the day. Another weak shortwave could still bring some
showers to the outer coast. With this clearing, daytime temperatures
will rise into the upper mid to upper 50s, approaching 60 in the far
southern panhandle. This warming trend is expected to continue into
Monday as high pressure continues building in and offshore flow
aloft develops. Daytime high temperatures Monday are expected to
reach the mid to upper 60s for a majority of the panhandle, with
some southern communities possibly reaching 70. For more on this
warming and dry period to start next week, see the long term
discussion below.
LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/... Tuesday continues to
appear the warmest day next week across the panhandle, with this
warming trend lasting through the middle of the week. A strong
upper level ridge solidifies its position across the panhandle
Monday and hangs around through the day Tuesday, bringing clearer
skies to the panhandle. The increase in direct day time heating is
expected to bring warm temperatures to the area. Median
temperature values across the panhandle range from the low to mid
70s through the day Tuesday, meaning this is the 50th percentile
outcome. Half of the temperatures lay below this value and half
lay above. The spread of temperature values still has a large
range, however, indicating uncertainty due to local heating
effects. The 10th-90th percentile varies up to 10 degrees in some
locations. This higher spread looks to be mainly along the coast
and in the Haines and Skagway area. This means that the
temperatures could be as much as 5 degrees higher or 5 degrees
lower than the current median values from the NBM. The 10th-90th
percentile spread indicates that there is a 20% chance that
temperatures will be outside of this range.
Wednesday and Thursday also look to be seasonally warmer than
normal as well. Current thinking is that Wednesday will be cooler
than Tuesday in the southern panhandle, but the northern panhandle
could see similar temperatures as Tuesday. This cooling in the
south is likely due to the remnants of a front that looks to make
its way towards the panhandle after an organized low in the
western gulf moves east and falls apart. Expectation is that cloud
cover in the southern panhandle will increase, and communities
could end up seeing isolated showers through Wednesday afternoon
or evening. The remnants from the front are then anticipated to
make their way north across the panhandle, bringing periods of
light showers that are expected dissipate through the day
Thursday.
AVIATION...Generally MVFR expected most locations overnight as
scattered showers developing along a weak trough across the
southern Panhandle slowly lifts north before dissipating. We
expect a general clearing of the showers to start late evening in
the south working its way northward through late morning Sunday.
We expect MVFR ceilings to go more VFR by late morning area-wide.
05/Garmon
MARINE...
Inner Channels: Shower activity this afternoon is making winds
and seas somewhat chaotic. While winds overall are generally
around 10 to 20 kt across the area from the S and E, heavier
showers are bringing gusts to 25 to 30 kt at times for brief
periods as they move through an area. Likewise, seas are generally
around 3 to 4 ft, but the heavier showers may bring seas up a
foot or so higher due to the gusty winds. These showers are also
reducing visibility down to 3 or 4 miles at times for brief
periods. The shower activity is expected to continue into Saturday
night before diminishing Sunday. Expect winds to remain generally
around 10 to 20 kt for most areas with occasional gusts to 30 kt
from passing showers while seas of 2 to 4 ft remain the norm. Into
Sunday and Monday, wind speeds likely will remain mostly the
same, but wind direction will start to show a shift to a more
northerly direction Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as offshore
flow become more dominate.
Gulf Waters: Winds generally out of the E and S direction at 15 kt
or less. Occasional gusts to 25 kt from heavier showers E of 138
W. Winds are expected to show an increasing trend on Sunday to
generally 20 kt with 25 kt possible W of 140 W especially toward
Sunday afternoon and night and will likely stay near that level
into Monday with the higher winds the further west you go. Seas
are generally around 5 ft or less currently with little in the way
of swell. Seas are expected to increase in the central gulf W of
138 W to around 7 ft Sunday and then increase again to 11 to 15 ft
by Monday as a front stalls in the central gulf. Most of that will
be wind wave. Any significant swell will not show up until Monday
night when a S swell will begin building to 6 to 8 ft by Tuesday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-671-672.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZTK
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAL
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