Area Forecast Discussions

215
FXAK69 PAFG 042256
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet weather continues to highlight the forecast as the long
holiday weekend ensues and we begin to say goodbye to summer.
Widespread rain will continue to focus across much of the
western and central Interior through Saturday before conditions
start to dry out a bit. Spotty showers will remain in the
forecast for most areas Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will
get a bit of a boost after the recent chilly conditions of this
past week. More unsettled weather is likely later next week as
additional storms try and push in from the west.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Widespread light to moderate rainfall will continue Friday
night into the first part of the day Saturday as a combination
of a lingering atmospheric river and approaching upper
disturbance track north through much of the Interior.

- Additional rainfall of 1.00 to as much as 2.00 inches will be
possible through Saturday, when overall rainfall begins to
taper off.

- Main stem rivers are expected to see noticeable rises over the
next few days, but flooding is not expected to be an issue.
However feeder streams and rivers could see water levels
nearing bankfull in a few locations.

- While the upper Tanana Valley has missed out on most of the
rainfall over the past few days, shower activity will slowly
pick up over this area in the days ahead.

- Warmer conditions are expected to return for the Sunday and
Monday timeframe with highs back in the upper 50`s and lower
60`s, even a bit warmer in locations not impacted by rainfall.

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Occasional showers will continue to track across the region
over the next few days, but total additional rainfall will
remain rather light.

- Higher water levels are expected once again throughout the
Norton Sound through high tide Saturday morning. Afterwards
more normal tide cycles are expected through the region for a
few days.

- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue across the
region through the weekend with highs generally in the 50`s to
near 60 further inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Bands of precipitation will continue to push north over the
Brooks Range through Sunday. Most precipitation will be light
and predominantly in the form of rain.

- Snowfall through the weekend will be confined to elevations
generally above 5500 feet with the possibility of mixed rain
and snow at times near the Dalton through Atigun Pass.

- Low clouds and occasional showers will occur near the Arctic
coastline through Saturday. However temperatures will be
warming a bit above seasonal normals with readings in the
40`s and 50`s throughout much of the North Slope.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The heavy rain threat for Interior portions of Alaska continues
to be the primary forecast focus at the start of the short term.
Friday morning precipitable water analysis showed normalized
anomalies of up to +4 standard deviations across a large
portion of the western and central Interior as deep northward
moisture transport associated with an atmospheric river remained
trapped in the southerly flow between an upper low in the
Bering and an upper ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. This resulted
in widespread moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and into
early Friday with readings of .50 to 1.00 inches of rain.

Models and satellite imagery are also indicating a fairly
strong shortwave currently over the Kuskokwim Delta ejecting
northeastwards towards these same areas of the Interior this
evening into early Saturday. The extra energy associated with
the shortwave will combine with lingering atmospheric moisture
to deliver a second round of steady and sometimes heavy
rainfall. While main stem rivers appear to still have plenty of
room to handle this extra volume of water, there will be
noticeable rises and swift flows along these waterways. Smaller
streams and rivers could even see minor flooding through
Saturday, especially in areas where repeated heavy rainfall
occurs.

In the wake of this ejecting shortwave, the atmospheric river
connection should shift east and south of the central Interior,
allowing for a slight drying trend for late in the weekend and
into Labor Day. However with longwave troughing remaining over
the Bering and southwest flow over much of the region, a few
scattered showers can`t be ruled out through the remainder of
the holiday weekend.

Meanwhile additional energy will round the base of the Bering
trough and set up a 996 surface low in the southern Bering by
Monday. As of now, the general trend is to keep the primary
impacts of this system south of the Alaska Range for Labor Day.
However as flow becomes more southerly over the range, increased
gap winds through the Alaska Range passes will be possible by
Monday night and Tuesday with another round of precipitation as
we head into the extended forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
To start the extended time frame on Monday, general troughing will
predominate across Western Alaska and adjacent marine areas, with
ridging occupying the eastern Gulf of Alaska and extending into
northwestern Canada. Model consensus supports a shortwave shifting
from southwest to northeast along the eastern periphery of the
trough across the Interior. As this occurs, scattered to numerous
showers will develop from the Alaska Range to the Brooks Range,
increasing in coverage Tuesday as the broader longwave shifts east
across the area. There is significant uncertainty on exact rain
totals and timing, but the highest totals (potentially over an inch)
will be possible in portions of the Alaska Range and the Western
Brooks Range and the southern Seward Peninsula. General model
consensus supports at least a few tenths of an inch of rain across
the southern Interior, although the Yukon Flats/northeastern
Interior could potentially be a local drier spot. There is also
uncertainty on exact precipitation amounts possible on the North
Slope, although the heaviest precipitation will likely remain
farther south.

Moving into Thursday afternoon and Friday, another low,
possibly moving out of Siberia, will bring renewed potential for
heavy precipitation across the area, with the heaviest rain
likely in the Western Brooks Range and southern Seward
Peninsula. This rain could spread east and affect the Eastern
Interior/North Slope by Friday. There is little confidence on
exact strength of this low, but high waters could be possible in
some coastal areas with onshore flow.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
High Surf Advisories will remain in effect for portions of the
Norton Sound through Saturday morning for elevated water levels
of 2 to 4 feet around the time of high tide. In general winds
across much of the west coast have diminished, but there remain
a large fetch of water being transported towards the Norton
Sound. Highest levels will likely be near Golovin and Elim. A
return to more normal tide levels is expected later in the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active and increasingly wet pattern will continue across Northern
Alaska through the weekend. An atmospheric river will continue to
bring periods of rain to much of the Interior today into Saturday,
followed by continued troughing across the Western portion of the
state, bringing additional opportunities for precipitation through
the week. Fairbanks NSB and west are expected to be the primary
recipients of the most consistent precipitation, however areas East
are expected to see some scattered showers as continued shortwave
disturbances wrap around the ridge axis that remains over the
southeast.

Across the Eastern Interior, the Upper Tanana Valley will remain the
area of greatest concern. Warmer temperatures and relatively lower
humidities keep areas east of Tanacross with RHs in the upper 30s.
However, a shortwave disturbance is expected to make its way up and
over the ridge axis Saturday morning bringing chances for isolated
showers through the first half of the day. Thunderstorms may develop
in the afternoon as another shortwave reaches the area during peak
heating. Thunderstorms are expected to remain mostly confined to the
higher elevations of Fortymile Country, and will bring localized
heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds.

Winds are generally expected to remain light across most of the
state, with the strongest winds expected along the West Coast and
through the Alaska Range passes. Strong gusts through the passes
bring potential for Delta Junction to see gusts up to 30 mph on
Monday night into Tuesday morning, however continued rounds of
precipitation are expected to raise minimum RHs to the upper 50s to
low 60s helping mitigate potential wind driven fire risk.

Temperatures remain moderate, with the highest temperatures expected
to be near 70 in the Upper Tanana on Saturday before cooling back
into the 60s through the week. Cloud cover is expected to continue
across the state, keeping temperatures moderated into the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A strong push of moisture from the West Coast to the Central
Interior is expected to continue through tomorrow. Rainfall
totals through Saturday of 1 to 1.5 inches expected between the
Yukon Flats, Bettles, and McGrath will be possible with locally
higher amounts in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley especially. Expect
fairly decent rises in local streams and rivers with sandbars
potentially covered, but there are no immediate concerns for the
main stem rivers in the area. Average return intervals of 2 to
5 years is possible throughout much of the Central and Western
Interior through the weekend. If the heavier totals shift east
towards the Chena Basin, there may be concerns for FNSB.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ822-824.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ812-858.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
Saturday for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ861.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ861.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Laney
KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Saltzman
COASTAL........Laney
FIRE WEATHER...Cruz
HYDROLOGY......Lewis

007
FXAK67 PAJK 050615
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1015 PM AKDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure out in the Gulf will shift east through the
weekend, with a return of cooler onshore marine air.

- Seasonable temperatures this weekend across the north with highs
in the in upper 50s to low 60s. Across the south, still mild for
Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, then trending a
cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 60s.

- A return to a cooler, more active weather pattern for next week
with multiple fronts pushing through southeast Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...The short term period will
be dominated by high pressure out of the Gulf slowly shifting east
with a return of marine layer into northeast Gulf coast and
northern panhandle by Saturday, spreading into the southern
panhandle by Sunday. Current satellite imagery is showing the
marine layer stratus crossing the 140W line and creeping towards
the northeast Gulf coast, including Yakutat. Onshore flow has
brought cooler marine air into Yakutat and northern panhandle,
with temperatures noticeable cooler than yesterday in the 60s.
Further south, northerly outflow continues with temperatures in
the upper 60s to 70s, with some interior locations on POW reaching
the low 80s. As the onshore push increases on Saturday, marine
layer stratus will expand into the northern panhandle through
Saturday, with drizzle possible for Yakutat, Sitka and into Icy
Strait corridor towards Juneau. The marine layer will continue to
expand through the southern panhandle by Sunday, but mainly dry
conditions will still prevail, although some drizzle along POW
coastline will be possible. By later Sunday, a front extending
from a low pressure system lifting into the northern Gulf will
approach the northeast Gulf and bring light to moderate rain,
with light rain expanding into northern panhandle Sunday night.

A slight cooling trend will be present through the weekend, with
seasonable daytime temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s from
Frederick sound on north. Across the south, daytime temps will be
still mild on Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but
cooling a bit on Sunday due to more marine influence, with highs
generally in the 60s.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday to Friday / A short wave moves to the SE AK
area with a frontal band moving to the northeast gulf coast and
then the panhandle through Monday and Tuesday. With an upper level
high over the central pacific the flow pattern weather is looking
more zonal from the just south of the Aleutians to the northern
panhandle for the later half of the week. So expect the continued
onshore flow to maintain the rain anticipated across the region.
24 hour rain totals in the 3/4 inch to 1.5 inch range, and
models beginning to suggest a wave a bit further south with
amounts focused over the southern third of the panhandle, for the
Thursday to Friday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...Through 06Z Sunday...
A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska has kept flight
conditions VFR across Southeast Alaska. Marine layer clouds
associated with the ridge are expected to move eastward tonight,
and bring MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to Yakutat, Sitka,
and Gustavus. There is uncertainty with how far inland these
marine layer clouds will make it, though. With how dry the air
mass in place is, fog from radiational cooling is generally not
expected, but cannot be ruled out for Juneau.

A frontal band currently near Kodiak Island will continue moving
the ridge eastward. This means that marine layer clouds are
expected to keep MVFR ceilings for Yakutat, Sitka, and Gustavus
through the end of the TAF period. As the ridge in the Gulf moves
eastward, ceilings are expected to begin lowering for Juneau by
06Z Sunday. For the Southern Panhandle, the marine layer clouds
are not expected to expand southeastward until after the TAF
period ends.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inside channels remain on
the lighter side below 15 kts. Wind directions remain mainly
northwesterly, but northern areas, through Lynn Canal, are starting
to see southerly winds develop. Southerly winds will continue for
that area as high pressure remains over the gulf. The main impact
for the inside waters is the continued potential for increased winds
due to sea breezes. These sea breezes are most likely to develop over
late morning into afternoon hours. Any sea breeze that develops can
bring gusty conditions. Similar conditions as what is mentioned
above, will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains
over the gulf. There is a chance for the marine layer, that is
observed over the gulf via satellite, to continue to move eastward
and reach the gulf coast. This marine layer can lower ceilings and
reduce visibilities. If the marine layer reaches the coast, it is
most likely to impact Yakutat Bay, Cross Sound, and Sitka Sound. It
could move slightly more easterly each day. These conditions will
continue until the next low pressure system reaches SE AK by late
Sunday into Monday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A ridge of higher pressure
remains over the gulf continuing to allow for predominately westerly
and northwesterly winds across the gulf. These winds mainly remain
at or below 15 kts for a majority of the gulf. An exception to this
is the far southeastern gulf, along the coast, where increased winds
near 20 kts and seas of 6 to 8 ft will continue through Saturday. On
Sunday, those winds and seas are anticipated to subside and
diminish. Then winds will remain on the lighter side until the next
low pressure system approaches the gulf at the start of next week.
Only other concern might be some reduction in visibility due to
marine layer low clouds especially on the leading edge of the ridge
as it moves eastward. This marine layer is also anticipated to break
down as the next low pressure system reaches the area.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...EAB

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