929
FXAK68 PAFC 120145
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...
Relatively quiet and cold weather in the near-term as weaker
surface features move through. By late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, a low near the Alaska Peninsula pushes its front into
the Gulf, likely bringing stronger winds and higher precipitation
rates. Models continue to struggle with the track of this low,
with some solutions showing the low quickly exiting south and,
thus, exerting little overall influence on Southcentral weather
late this week.
Diving into the details... a shortwave trough will eject into the
Gulf of Alaska late tonight. Renewed onshore flow coincident with
the remnant moisture from the previous low will allow the
development of rain/snow across the Prince William Sound with
showers advecting into the adjacent mountains and possibly into
the coastal towns such as Whittier. Accumulation continue to look
light.
Elsewhere across Southcentral, mostly clear, calm, and
meteorologically-quiescent conditions should prevail through
tomorrow. Aurora watchers tonight should beware of fog/low
stratus potential near open water and in the Copper River Valley.
Otherwise, cloud cover spreads across the area later tomorrow
as a decaying front moves over Kodiak Island, with little to no
precipitation expected for most of the Mainland with this front.
-Brown/KC
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Radar imagery shows light snowfall quickly diminishing across the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon as the weak surface low over the
YK-Delta dissipates. Drier air in the eastern Bering and along the
Southwest coast has allowed for skies to clear out from Nunivak
Island down through the Bristol Bay coast. Low stratus and
flurries likely persist through this evening for interior
Southwest Alaska, with light winds allowing for the possible
development of patchy fog across the northern Kuskokwim Delta and
interior Bristol Bay overnight.
Meanwhile, a northwest to southeast oriented gale force front
remains draped across the western Bering through the central
Aleutians this afternoon, bringing consistent gale force gusts and
periods of moderate rainfall. Satellite imagery is beginning to
show an elongation and weakening of the front as its vertically
stacked parent low remains nearly stationary in the far western
Bering just off the coast of Kamchatka. The front weakens to small
craft strength as it pushes east and reaches the Alaska Peninsula
and Pribilof Islands late this evening through early Wednesday
morning. The front nears the Southwest Alaska coast by late
Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Models have come
into better agreement on a compact surface low spinning up in the
vicinity of Kuskokwim Bay and Nunivak Island as the front quickly
falls apart as it progresses inland. Light snow is expected to
spread across Southwest Alaska, with 1-2" expected along the
Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coasts with lesser amounts farther
inland through Thursday morning. The aforementioned compact low
will allow gusty winds to persist for the Kuskokwim Delta through
Wednesday night, allowing for periods of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities until the low moves inland and quickly dissipates.
The greatest potential for blowing snow will be mainly confined to
coastal areas.
Things look to stay mostly quiet across Southwest Alaska and the
Bering Sea for much of the day Thursday. By Thursday evening,
west-northwest winds along the Aleutian Chain begin to pick up as
a gale-force low lifts out of the North Pacific towards the AKPen.
The low begins to slow in its track and stall over the AKPen
Friday afternoon, before quickly pivoting to the southeast into
the southern Gulf Friday evening into Saturday. Elevated easterly
winds are expected across the AKPen and Bristol Bay waters ahead
of this system. Stronger west-northwest winds enhanced by cold air
advection on the back side of this system will bring the
potential for storm force gusts across the Eastern Aleutians
through Friday afternoon. Heading into the weekend, the next low
and potentially gale force front reaches the western Aleutians.
Shortly after, this system begins to interact and phase with a
much stronger North Pacific low as it lifts across the Aleutians
and into the Southern Bering Saturday into Sunday with the
potential for the storm to deepen to a sub-950 mb low. There are a
lot of details to iron out with this system and any impacts
related to the storm will be highly dependent on storm track, in
which confidence remains low at this time. Please stay tuned and
monitor the forecast for this upcoming system.
-JH
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...
The long term period begins at the start of the weekend with a
broad trough over the Bering and a second trough located over the
Gulf of Alaska. The latter trough shifts eastward into Canada as
energy digs it southeastward, taking the trough with it by Sunday
afternoon. General high pressure will continue across Southcentral
with dry and cool conditions anticipated into early next week for
the region. To the west and within the Bering Sea trough, a near-
stationary upper-low is forecast to remain mostly in place.
Of greater interest will be the arrival of a North Pacific low
across the Central Aleutians into the southern Bering on Saturday.
as it rotates into the broader Bering Sea trough. This low will
bring an abundance of moisture with it, originating from the South
China Sea, and an above normal chance for high winds through the
Aleutians on Saturday. Deterministic models and ensembles have
been hinting at significant deepening of the low as it moves
through the Aleutian Chain. However, there remains continued
uncertainty with exactly where this low will track once into the
Bering and how much the low itself will intensify. The latest
trend in forecast models take the low further west while it
rotates around the broad trough over the Bering Sea. Regardless of
the track, enhanced winds and heavy precipitation will be
possible. The threat of high winds quickly transitions from the
Aleutians to the Pribilof Islands on Sunday as the low lifts to
the north and northwest.
Even further out in the forecast models are hinting at yet
another North Pacific low to track into the Eastern Aleutians late
Monday into Tuesday. The passage of multiple lows moving into the
Bering with persistent southerly flow, will likely result in a
warming trend for Southwest Alaska. Above normal chances for
precipitation will develop Sunday into Monday as a front tracks
into the coast.
-BL
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...The only real concern over the next day is the potential
for fog and/or low stratus. A small area of fog developed along
Knik Arm this morning and is persisting into the afternoon
without moving much. With light north-northeast winds overnight
and Wednesday morning, there is the potential for any fog/stratus
that develops again to drift over the terminal overnight through
tomorrow morning.
&&
$$
852
FXAK69 PAFG 120011
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear and cold conditions are expected to persist throughout
most of the week for most locations, with the exception of some
light snow showers possible for some of the more coastal areas where
there is a better moisture source, as well as weak disturbances
situated around the mainland. Expect some areas to get very cold
tonight under mostly clear skies, with some patchy freezing fog
setting up within some of the wind-sheltered valleys, and near
riverbeds. The cold and drier pattern will set in more over the
northern half of the state, while there is some more influence from
troughing for the southwestern and southeastern portions. For the
upcoming weekend, there will begin a transition to a more active
pattern along the coastal areas of the YK-Delta, which may more
impacted by a stronger low pressure system moving up over the Bering
Sea, and this will continued to be monitored in the upcoming days,
as well as the potential for a few locations possibly getting up
near the freezing mark with warmer air advection from the southeast
later in the week, which may potentially cause some icing/freezing
drizzle issues as a result if this occurs.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Widespread light snow showers will continue to be possible
through tomorrow around the Alcan border, mainly from the upper
Tanana Valley to the Yukon Flats, with generally 1-3" inches at
best.
- Clearer skies will continue to support colder temperatures and
areas of dense fog as conditions turn drier through tomorrow.
- Highs will be generally in the single digits above and below
zero, and lows will be falling into the negative singles and
teens for most locations, and possibly negative twenties for a
few locations.
- Temperatures trend colder later in the week, with highs
dropping to the single digits and teens with lows mostly in the
single digits below zero. Coldest spots especially by midweek
see highs struggle to get above zero with lows reaching the
double digits below zero. There will be a slight warmup later
this upcoming weekend and going into the beginning of next week
as as more southerly flow returns.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Quiet and dry conditions today will give way to a frontal
boundary lifting northeast into Southwest Alaska tomorrow with
increasing chances of snow and breezy winds.
- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.
- Dry conditions remain in place for the West Coast, with
isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska tomorrow into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.
- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range today throughout the evening. Additional accumulations
through up to around 1-2", and locally higher across the NE
Arctic Coast.
- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.
- Dry conditions return region wide tonight into tomorrow as a
colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.
- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero further inland.
- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.
An occluding low associated with an exiting trough to our southeast
is allowing for some wrap-around moisture and snow for portions of
the Tanana River Valley. Very light and off snow showers will still
be possible through tomorrow under and area of weak troughing,
mainly over the eastern portions of the Brook Range and portions of
the Yukon Flats along the Alcan border. Overall, higher pressure is
going to continue to strengthen and dominate the mainland throughout
this period in the forecast, with temperatures continuing to plummet
under mostly clear skies across the region. With a colder air mass
settling in, along with clearing and drying conditions, some
portions within the Interior, as well as the Brooks Range/Arctic
Plains could see temperatures getting below -20F tonight. There will
also be some locations within the Brooks Range and North
Slope/Arctic Plains with some possible freezing fog/very light snow.
There could also be some locations along the eastern Arctic Ocean
getting some blow sea spray with possible light rime icing accretion
on surfaces for some of the coastal areas as the onshore flow out of
the northeast becomes more enhanced going into tomorrow over these
areas.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday night through next Monday.
Models still trend towards higher pressure building in over the
Chukchi Sea,then shifting eastward over the Beaufort Sea, which
will draw in the coldest air mass so far for this season as
northeasterly flow is enhanced across the North Slope. This will
allow for there to be many locations within the Mainland, and
especially for portions of the western Interior and Arctic Plains to
experience sub-zero temperatures, even for highs tomorrow. As
conditions look to remain fairly clear and dry, the overall cooling
trend will continue into the following weekend for most of the
central and northern portion of the state, which most of the snow
activity remaining more confined to the coastal areas. Ensembles
have continued to show that the majority of passing lows will remain
far enough for there to be very little to no impact in terms of
precipitation and wind for the southern portions of the CWA,
however, there is becoming more of a consensus of the deterministic
models which continue to alluded to a possible major shortwave
trough with some extra-tropical moisture that may prove impactful
for some of the coastal areas of the YK Delta if this system takes a
more westerly track towards the Bering Strait, although this is
still quite far out in the forecast. Moreover, there is also some
uncertainty as the track of this system remains uncertain and thus
will continued to be monitored in the upcoming days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-808.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858-859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
Stewey
557
FXAK67 PAJK 120049
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 PM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Diminishing gale force low brings more rounds of rain and
elevated winds to the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday
- Diminishing snow showers for upper elevation highways through
Tuesday evening
- Isolated thunderstorms along outer coast through Tuesday night
- Northerly and easterly winds begin midweek bringing cooler
temperatures and drier conditions across the panhandle
Wednesday and Thursday night.
- Active weather returns at the end of the week continuing into
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...The weakening gale force low finally pushed inland
over Yakutat Bay Tuesday afternoon, bringing strong winds as well
as a significant wind shift to Yakutat and the nearby coast over
the course of a few hours. With the low advancing inland over the
Yukon and interior Alaska, winds over the gulf and NE coast will
continue to diminish through Tuesday night. For the far northern
inner channels, the track of the low will keep strong southerly
winds in Lynn Canal into the evening hours as well as strong wind
gusts up to 40 mph for Skagway and Haines for a similar time.
Elsewhere across the panhandle, any remaining southerly winds will
continue to diminish through Tuesday night becoming generally
light at less than 10 kt by Wednesday morning. Weak northerly
winds will then gradually develop with high pressure gradually
building over the interior and a low passing to the south of the
panhandle later Wednesday and into Thursday.
For the central outer coast, instability in the wake of the
previous front combined with onshore flow into the coastal
mountains has the potential to continue producing isolated
thunderstorms through Tuesday night, diminishing by early
Wednesday morning. The likeliest area for these to develop is near
Sitka Sound, spreading northward through the night. These would
likely produce gusty erratic winds and localized moderate to
heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the panhandle, showers will
continue to diminish into Wednesday from south to north.
For the Klondike Highway, snow showers are expected to gradually
taper off this evening with accumulations up to 2 inches, and
little to no snow accumulation from scattered showers through the
day Wednesday. The Haines Highway is expected to be more
sheltered from any remaining showers with little to no
accumulation through Tuesday night.
As showers diminish and high pressure begins to build into the
gulf from the southwest, some clearing may allow for some fog
development across more sheltered parts of the inner channels
Wednesday night with light to variable winds.
.LONG TERM...
Lighter winds and drier weather continues into Thursday. During
the day Thursday, a weak embedded low in the northern gulf has the
chance of bringing light showers across the gulf waters. Mainly
northerly and easterly winds will bring drier and cooler
continental air over the panhandle. Temperatures across most of
the panhandle will see overnight lows getting below freezing
Thursday night. Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of
less than 30 degree temperatures over the southern panhandle
Thursday into Friday. The central and northern panhandle both
have a medium to high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25
degrees. These temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of
year, but it would be the coldest most places have gotten so far
this season.
Behind drier weather and cooler temperatures, another system once
again enters the gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again
increases winds across the gulf and panhandle. It sends moderate
precipitation across the panhandle as well. The main question with
this end of week system is what precipitation type will fall.
With cold air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the
central panhandle. The colder the temperatures are leading up to
the weekend system, the more likely it is for precipitation to
fall as snow into the Icy Strait Corridor. If it does end up being
the right atmosphere for snow, any snow accumulation near the Icy
Strait Corridor is likely to remain low.
This active weather then continues into the start of the week as
multiple fronts make their way across the gulf into the
panhandle. There is currently quite a bid of spread between
models and ensembles on where the main low pressure systems
track.
&&
.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Thursday/...Generally, ceilings &
visibilities in the MVFR/VFR flight category range, starting out
lower & ending higher, & diminishing shower activity are anticipated
through the TAF period. There will be breezy conditions north of the
Icy Strait Corridor as the pressure gradient will remain relatively
tighter over that area. LLWS magnitudes of up to 30 - 35 kt out of
an average southerly direction centered up at around 2 kft remain
into Tuesday evening, primarily for northern areas. There is enough
instability around the PASI area for some possible isolated
thunderstorms along with the scattered showers into Tuesday evening
within the convective activity behind the front that pushed through
earlier. Southern panhandle areas that will have the most breaks in
the clouds & the lightest winds due to being farther from the parent
low & having a more relaxed pressure gradient may have some areas of
fog, lowering conditions to around the IFR/LIFR category later
Tuesday night. The enhanced winds for the north will diminish &
flight conditions will improve to the VFR category toward the latter
part of the period.
&&
.MARINE...
The remnants of a gale force low is spinning and tracking
northward quickly this afternoon. The big story for the marine
waters is an overall quieter forecast with a couple quick-moving
weak lows through the gulf with early next week being the next
chance for a frontal passage that could bring gale force winds.
Outside Waters: For tonight into tomorrow, winds will continue to
decrease closer to gentle breezes allowing for calming weather
across the Gulf and outer coast. Wave heights should continue to
decrease to 5-7 ft by tomorrow afternoon
Beyond tomorrow, Friday is the next round of south to southeast wind
speeds getting up to 15 to 20 knots with 20 to 25 knots for Friday
night. Wind speeds decrease for Saturday but come back up to 20 to
30 kts, potential or 35 kts, by Monday.
Inside Waters: Wind speeds have remained elevated in Lynn Canal with
reports upwards of 30 kts for most of the day today. Other inside
channels have been reporting decreasing wind speeds today.
For tonight into tomorrow, wind speeds will continue to decrease to
around 5 to 10 kts by late tonight. The exception will Lynn Canal
where speeds around 10 to 15 kts are more likely. Late tonight into
tomorrow, winds look to swing to a more northerly direction so
outflow conditions continue to look likely for the Inner Channels.
Beyond tomorrow, late Friday is the next chance for inner channel
wind speeds to increase again to around 10 to 20 kts with those
elevated speeds likely to linger into the weekend. Elevated
southerly winds around 20 to 30 knots are possible early next week
as the next front moves through. Stay tuned for updates.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS
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