740
FXAK68 PAFC 121350
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3/Today through Saturday Night)...
A long-wave trough is firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea and
Alaska, anchored by a closed low circulation over the eastern
Bering Sea. A plethora of short-wave troughs are tracking from the
Aleutians to the Gulf and then curving northward into Southcentral.
As of 4 AM, the compact gale force surface low that brought
gusty winds to Prince William Sound (PWS) and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula have moved well inland over interior Alaska. A light
wintry mix of precipitation lingers from Cook Inlet north across
the Susitna Valley this morning, but is tapering off from south to
north. The overall environment remains favorable for freezing
rain from the western Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage and
vicinity, with a prominent warm nose (area of above freezing)
still noted in the 12z (3 AM) Anchorage sounding up to 1800 ft.
With temperatures only a couple degrees above or below freezing,
any lingering precipitation early this morning will likely fall
as very light freezing rain. As precipitation ends by mid morning,
temperatures could fall below freezing, meaning roads will likely
remain slick in spot, especially for bridges and overpasses,
through the morning commute.
Meanwhile, additional upper level short-waves will track toward
and through PWS through tonight, maintaining steady rain for
Cordova and Valdez. Precipitation with these waves will likely be
more showery in nature as these bands move across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and over northern Cook Inlet later this morning.
The warm nose will be eroding as this next round of precipitation
moves in in conjunction with surface temperatures warming into the
lower to mid 30s. Thus, this next round of showers will likely
fall as a rain/snow mix from Kenai to Anchorage with snow showers
likely into the central and northern Susitna Valley.
Most of Southcentral will dry out Thursday night as there is a
break in short-waves and low level flow shifts to northerly in
response to a deep Pacific low tracking moving into the northeast
Pacific. The exception will be Kodiak Island, where a trough axis
will set up shop and bring steady precipitation Thursday night
through Friday night or Saturday. The air aloft looks cold enough
for snow. However, some models indicate a meso-scale low just
east of Kodiak Island. This could introduce flow off the Gulf and
lead to just enough warm air to produce a mix of rain and snow for
Kodiak City and other Gulf coast locations. In any case, even if
it does fall as all snow, temperatures will be near freezing and
the snow will be fairly wet. Thus, several inches of wet
accumulation are possible, with much higher amounts as you head up
in elevation.
As we head to Saturday, a warm front extending north from the
aforementioned low in the Northeast Pacific will track westward
across the Gulf as an upper level short-wave approaches from the
Bering. This is favorable for a "deformation band" of heavier
precipitation. It`s too early to say exactly where that will set
up, but right now model guidance mostly favors the Kenai
Peninsula, with some potential that precipitation reaches
Anchorage. Precipitation will also be a challenge as precipitation
first arrives, though with warming from the east would expect a
snow to rain transition.
-SEB/TM
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
Northerly flow continues to advect colder air across the region
in the lower and mid levels. In response to the added instability
from cooler air moving in aloft, open cell, convective snow
showers are visible on satellite moving from north to south across
the Bering. Meanwhile, remnants of a Gulf low are bringing light
snow across the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas this
morning. This period of snow will be short lived and will begin
to taper by midday today, but light snowfall accumulations of 0.5
to 2 inches are expected.
By Friday morning, two additional systems of interest move into
the region. First, a North Pacific low skirts well south of the
Aleutian Chain, though will reactivate northwesterly gap winds
for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Friday afternoon. The
second system of note will be moving across the Western Aleutian
chain in the form of a high end small craft to gale force front
late Friday as its parent low moves eastward across the north-
central Bering by Saturday afternoon with additional westerly
high end small crafts and gales for the Central and southern
Bering.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...
Troughing continues into early next week over Southern Alaska and
the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the forecast area
through the middle of next week, resulting in a more unsettled
weather pattern.
By Sunday morning, a low pressure system looks track into the
southeastern Gulf while another slightly weaker look is positioned
in the central Bering. The Gulf low looks to track close to the
Panhandle while the Bering low continues east towards the Alaska
Peninsula. On Sunday evening, a triple point low looks to develop
south of the Alaska Peninsula and track to near Kodiak Island on
Monday. This triple point low becomes the primary low as both the
Bering low and eastern Gulf low congeal into it on Monday. The low
stalls over Kodiak Island Monday night, then moves into the Gulf
Tuesday and dissipates by Wednesday morning.
Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering,
Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air
continues to stream in around the Bering low. There is a 40 to 60
percent chance these snow showers expand across the rest of
Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, otherwise
most of Southwest looks to remain dry early next week as
precipitation stays offshore. Precipitation looks to taper off for
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon as the
low moves into the Gulf. For Southcentral, warmer air streams in
from the northern Pacific ahead of the triple point low. This will
lead to high chances of rain along the northern Gulf Coast and
lower elevations of Kodiak Island through Tuesday. For the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and places further inland, chances for
precipitation are lower. Additionally, cooler air looks to remain
in place further inland as well. With this cooler air, confidence
is low for what type of precipitation will fall for the western
Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat-Su Sunday-Tuesday as conditions look
to favor more of a rain/snow mix. With even colder temperatures
in the Upper Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, any precip
that manages to move over those locations through the middle of
next week will be snow.
The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the Bering. Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix
on the east side of the low and mostly snow on the west side of
the low. Confidence is still low with the exact track of the low
as, by Wednesday morning, models have it positioned somewhere
between the eastern Aleutians and Saint Matthew Island. Where the
low tracks will also have an effect on potential hazards the low
brings. A more southern track has the strongest winds moving
through the Aleutian Chain, while a more northern track raises
concerns for potential coastal flooding along the Southwest Coast
Tuesday into Wednesday. Positioning of this low should become
more clear in the coming days.
- PA
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Light southeast flow aloft continues for much of today.
Any leftover freezing rain/freezing sprinkles will taper off this
morning as the atmospheric column cools and switches precipitation
over to snow showers later this morning. Ceilings may drop to
MVFR this morning, but should not drop to IFR due to the southeast
flow. Surface flow becomes northerly for Friday morning at the
end of the TAF period with conditions solidly returning to VFR
with drier air moving in.
&&
$$
105
FXAK69 PAFG 121412
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
512 AM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Fairly quiet weather will continue across the Interior through
the weekend, with daily chances of light flurries and minimal
accumulations.
- Temperatures near normal or slightly above are expected
through the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows
in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop below
zero.
- Northeast winds will ramp up Friday night into Saturday,
especially across higher elevations and northern Interior with
gusts up to around 30 to 40 mph. Winds diminish on Monday
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue through
the weekend, with light accumulations expected.
- A period of more organized snow is possible for the Nulato
Hills and Kobuk Valley on Saturday, resulting in modest snow
accumulations of 2-4 inches, with more in areas of elevation.
- Temperatures will hold steady to finish the week, with highs
in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens and 20s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow and wind gusts up to 45 mph across the Arctic Coast
will continue to lead to areas of blowing snow/low visibility.
Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings here have been
issued/extended through Friday with visibility dropping below
one half mile at times.
- Gusty winds will continue into the weekend across the Arctic
Coast, though falling snow will be more isolated, leading to
visibility restrictions to be more limited.
- Farther south across the Arctic Plains and Brooks Range, snow
showers will persist into the weekend with lighter winds
compared to the coast. An uptick in easterly winds are
expected Friday night into Saturday, as high as 60 mph.
- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend into the
weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the teens
and single digits, potentially likely going below zero for
more mountainous areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Few changes were made to the overall forecast with the overall
message remaining consistent. Windy conditions and snow showers
on the north slope will continue to cause substantial
reductions in visibility, with blizzard warnings persisting
through the remainder of the week. Chances of flurries and
occasionally some snow showers with minimal accumulations
remain for the rest of northern AK through the weekend.
Satellite and radar imagery show a pattern largely unchanged to
what has been seen these past few days. The Pacific Jet remains
far to our south. This will keep most of the active storm
systems moving across the Aleutians and into the Gulf before
swinging north into the interior. As the lows hit the Alaska
Range and the Coast Mountains, rapid weakening will occur, with
remnant frontal bands moving northward into northern AK
bringing periods of snow showers, but with only limited
accumulation potential. The one exception is a weak low which
has developed in the western Chukchi Sea, which is fueling a
band of snow showers along the North Slope. A broad area of high
pressure parked over the Arctic Ocean is contributing to an
amplified pressure gradient along the northern coast, resulting
in elevated winds and periods of blowing snow and significantly
reduced visibilities.
The broad area of troughing over the state, courtesy of the
aforementioned Pacific Jetstream, will continue to steer the
stronger systems south of our area. While weak remnant frontal
bands push north. One of these bands will move through the
Brooks range on Thursday, while another moves up from the AK
Range Friday night through Saturday. Am not concerned with any
significant snowfall accumulations with these, but think that
the Saturday front could bring up to 2-4 inches of new snow for
the Nulato Hills and Kobuk Valley, along with similar totals
for the eastern Brooks Range. Otherwise, chances of snow
showers and flurries remain possible across northern AK, while
temperatures remain fairly seasonable, with no significant cold
snaps or warm-ups expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat more active weather potential for the Western Coast
through the long term as the Pacific Storm track moves slightly
north of its current position early next week, though still
anticipate the overall forecast pattern to favor less active
weather for the bulk of our area.
This is not to say that no impacts will be observed. Even as
most storms continue to steer clear of the interior, a low
will pass over the far southern Bering Saturday through Monday.
This system will bring 25-30 kt sustained winds out of the East
and Northeast for areas south of St. Lawrence Island, becoming
more northerly on Monday as the low itself tracks east into the
Gulf. This will be followed by another system entering the far
southern Bering Sea from Tuesday onwards. While ensemble
guidance is still favoring a more southern (and significantly
impactful) track with this system, at least some of the embedded
runs are indicating the potential for a more northerly track if
the system is able to take advantage of a ridge which could
briefly build into south central along a weakness in the broad
area of troughing. Were this to verify, the potential for some
coastal impacts for parts of the YK Delta towards the latter
half of the week would exist. At this time, confidence in that
outcome remains low, with the vast majority of model runs
favoring a landfall well to the south towards the Alaska
Peninsula. We will monitor the development of this system
closely in case the situation evolves.
Temperatures continue to look to be largely on track with
seasonable values for most locations expected, though a modest
cooldown towards the middle of next week is not out of the
question, depending track of the previously mentioned system.
Coastal Hazard Potential...No coastal hazards are expected
through the forecast time frame.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for
AKZ801-802.
Blizzard Warning until 4 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805.
MARINE...Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811.
Gale Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ812>814-
859>861.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ812>815-
857>860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM
AKST Friday for PKZ812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Friday for
PKZ813>815-858>860.
Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM AKST this
evening for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Friday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory until noon AKST today for PKZ851.
Gale Warning until noon AKST today for PKZ857.
&&
$$
SPANN
343
FXAK67 PAJK 121522
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
622 AM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Periods of rain continue across SE AK as a few weaker weather
systems move northwestward over the area.
- Rain chances begin to diminish Thursday evening into Friday as
a low pressure system moves south of the panhandle allowing for
weak northerly outflow to begin.
- Another area of low pressure will move into the eastern gulf
on Sunday bringing another period of rain and wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Multiple weak waves moving up the panhandle from the
south this morning, with the latest one between Ketchikan and
Wrangell now. Rain showers with light to moderate rates are
currently being reported over Prince of Wales Island and Wrangell,
with breezy conditions near the Ketchikan area. Did have some
brief periods of wind gusts around 40 mph in the Ketchikan area,
but largely expecting these to behave around 30-35 mph diminishing
during the morning hours. Rain showers are expected to continue
moving northward through the day before fully dissipating during
the afternoon to evening timeframe as the shortwaves are sheared
apart across the terrain.
Brief break overnight as winds transition to northerly, drying
the atmosphere, with some possible breaks. The next weak system
moves up Friday, bringing another round of increased rain chances
for the panhandle. Could see some accumulating snow for the Haines
Highway area at the higher elevations, like Haines Customs, but
confidence was not high enough to see 4 inches for a winter
weather advisory.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Overall long range
forecast for the panhandle and gulf waters is generally toward a
less active pattern. Pacific storm track has shifted farther south
to start with, with at least one major system going into British
Columbia early in the weekend. However, less active does not mean
quiet. Toward the end of the weekend a weakening gale force low
will move into the eastern gulf from the S bringing another bout
of rain and wind (up to gale force in the gulf and some parts of
the inner channels) Sunday into early next week.
Into mid week and beyond the pattern turns quieter again as there
is evidence of a significant ridge building over the area by
Thursday. However, there is no agreement on where exactly that
ridge will be. Some guidance favors the ridge developing over the
eastern gulf with most of the panhandle being dry as a result.
Other guidance favors a position east of the panhandle with the
ridge being more transient. This scenario favors a more active
eastern gulf with a stalled front pointing a lot of moisture at
the N gulf coast late week. In either case, the lower few thousand
feet of the atmosphere remains warm enough for any precip to
remain rain for most Panhandle communities through the middle of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds and LLWS have improved dramatically from just 24 hours ago.
Surface level winds sit under 15 kts almost everywhere, with a few
gusts above that occurring on an isolated basis. Scattered pockets
of moderate rain will continue to pepper the panhandle this morning,
but taper off into the afternoon. Occasionally vsby has fallen in
association with this rain, as well as temporary cig lowering.
Given that most cigs have lifted to 5kft or above, drops into VFR
conditions are rare. As we dry out over the course of the next 24
hours, cigs will also lift higher. Light winds and improving VFR
conditions will continue for this TAF valid period.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer waters:
A couple weak waves moving northward along the coastline is
bringing somewhat varied wind directions and speeds to the
outside waters, with speeds generally between 15 and 25 knots
ranging from southerlies to easterlies. By this afternoon, these
waves will largely be dissipated, with winds shifting to
northeasterlies, out of interior passes. Friday night sees another
weak, but cohesive wave move northward, shifting winds back to
southeasterlies up to 25 knots. One interesting portion of this
forecast is the opposing swell and wind direction come friday.
Southerly well of around 12-14 ft with northeasterly winds will
bring wave heights above 15 ft south of Cape Edgecombe into the
gulf waters. Waves will subside slowly Friday night.
Inside Waters:
Several weak waves will move north over the panhandle,
dissipating right around the Icy Strait area. Unfortunately for
many mariners, this leads to a relatively tough forecast, with
changing wind directions and magnitudes relatively quickly.
Therefore, current forecast represents more of a worse case
scenario, do not expect these wind speeds to be consistent the
entire day. The early morning wave is right around the Ketchikan
area and will be moving northward through the morning hours.
Expect to see winds largely diminish by this evening, before a
transition to northerlies overnight tonight. By Friday morning,
northerlies with wind speeds up to 25 knots will spread across the
north south facing channels. As the weak low moves northward
Friday night, these northerlies will diminish and transition to
more southerlies.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...NC
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