509
FXAK68 PAFC 050147
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...
Key Messages:
* A period of light snow is likely for Kodiak Island overnight
tonight into Thursday morning.
* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as
incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high
pressure over the Mainland.
* We continue to monitor a strong low pressure system moving in
from late Thursday into Friday. Potential hazards include heavy
snow, blowing snow, and, along the Gulf coast, potential for
snow to mix with or change to rain.
Discussion:
The subtropical jet stream in the Pacific will reorient from the
North Pacific to the Gulf and help steer storm systems quickly
across the Gulf. The first, weaker low will arrive tonight into
tomorrow with gusty easterly winds across the northern Gulf and a
period of snow for Kodiak Island, with up to 2-4 inches of
accumulation possible by Thursday afternoon for Kodiak City. The
easterly flow across the northern Gulf will also result in snow
showers across Prince William Sound through Thursday.
By Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from the
North Pacific. Forecast confidence has increased with the general
picture and timing of this storm, but there remains uncertainty.
Deterministic models are generally showing 2 scenarios: the low
center moving up Cook Inlet, or the low center tracking along
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and into Prince William Sound. Both
scenarios are equally likely, though our forecast is based on the
first scenario.
Even though there`s uncertainty with the track of the low, there
are some aspects of the forecast where we DO have moderate to high
confidence. We continue to expect the heaviest snow amounts and
strongest winds along Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Arm, and Prince
William Sound. The threat of heavy snow and blowing snow will be
greatest in these areas. These areas will also likely see their
temperatures rise to or above freezing for several hours, which
could create difficult travel conditions due to rain on sub-
freezing roads, or rain on snow. Forecast confidence is also
fairly high for Kodiak Island; aside from some minor timing
differences, the modeled low tracks diverge after the low has
mostly moved beyond Kodiak Island.
Where forecast confidence is lowest is mostly along Cook Inlet and
in the interior. Our forecast package is based on the first
scenario, which has lower snow amounts for interior locations. If
the second scenario were to play out, there could be much more
snow (especially in favored downslope areas like parts of Western
Kenai Peninsula, Mat Valley, and Anchorage) than currently
forecast. If you`ll be in this area late this week, stay tuned to
the forecast.
As the storm begins to move out of the area, generally expect
improving conditions from Friday night into Saturday. Onshore flow
and an incoming shortwave will lead to continued snow along
Eastern Prince William Sound and the Talkeetna Mountains. Details
remain unclear as this period of the forecast will be highly
dependent on which track Thursday/Friday`s low ends up taking.
-TM/KC
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday)...
A deep Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched over mainland
Alaska and the Bering Sea, with northerly flow maintaining the
cold air across the region. The prolonged nature of the pattern
has resulted in growth and advection of sea ice across the
northern and eastern Bering Sea, with the ice edge approaching the
northern edge of the Pribilof Islands. As the cold air moves over
open water, stratocumulus clouds and snow showers develop. These
clouds and showers cover nearly the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian
chain. Southwest Alaska remains mostly clear and cold, except for
an area of clouds due to a weak meso-low located near Cape
Newenham; this low will quickly diminish by Thursday morning
without upper level support.
A strong storm system is set to move out of the Northern Pacific
Thursday into Southern Alaska. Solutions continue to try to
resolve the storm track, but there remains enough variance in the
model output to lead to a low confidence forecast for areas on the
periphery of the system - along the Aleutians and north across
Bristol Bay and the Lake Iliamna Region. These areas just
reference remain within a Winter Weather Watch, while the Alaska
Peninsula has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. Given the
strength and persistence of the current cold air mass over the
region, confidence is high that precipitation from this system
will remain cold enough for snow, preventing a warm surge from
really infiltrating the southern coastline.
Meanwhile, a second compact upper low will drop southward out of
eastern Russia tonight and across the western Bering and Aleutians
Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface low will also form
beneath the upper center. This will bring gusty winds and
continued snow showers to the Aleutians from around Atka west.
As each of the aforementioned lows drop south by early Saturday
morning, Arctic air will reign supreme across the eastern Bering
and Southwest Alaska, leading to another period of gusty winds and
light snow showers that will bring us into next week.
-AB/CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...
Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Strong northwesterly flow
and cold air advection will bring a shortwave producing a brief
period of snow to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on
Tuesday. High pressure across the Bering and a lingering surface
low in the eastern Gulf increase the potential for strong gap
winds across the Barren Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula.
Forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures into the
middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through 00Z
Friday.
&&
$$
100
FXAK69 PAFG 050042
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Well below normal temperatures for early March continue across all
of Northern Alaska this week, with a brief reprieve coming this
weekend. Despite daily lows in the -30s and -40s, the increasing
sun angle is allowing for temperatures to quickly rise each
afternoon to the single digits above and below zero. Expect this
same diurnal pattern to continue at least until Thursday before
the next weather system approaches from the southwest bringing
light snow chances to the Interior and Alaska Range. Main focus
for today`s discussion will revolve around the interesting set up
for Friday and Saturday`s winter storm and the forecast
uncertainties that still remain. Light snow accumulations are
looking likely for portions of the Central and Eastern Interior,
including Fairbanks, with highest totals in the Alaska range and
White Mountains. Low confidence still exists in how much
downsloping may occur which could greatly impact snowfall
forecasts for those areas just to the north of the Alaska range. Higher
confidence exists in the extended forecast going into next week
as reinforcing shots of arctic air keep temperatures well below
normal with additional chances for late season -40F lows.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Daytime highs moderate into the single digits below and above
zero due to the increasing sun angles and sufficient daytime
heating.
- A brief round of light snow today for the Upper Tanana Valley
and Fortymile Country today, minor accumulations possible.
- Another chance for accumulating snowfall for most of the
southeast Interior and Alaska Range Friday and Saturday. Winter
Storm Watch for heavy snow has been issued for the Eastern
Alaska Range south of Trims Camp early Friday morning through
Saturday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Below normal temperatures continue with double digit sub zero
lows continuing into early next week.
- Another round of strong northerly winds through the Bering
Strait Thursday into the weekend, peaking on Saturday. Blowing
snow concerns for coastal communities from Point Hope to the
western Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Below normal temperatures in the double digits below zero
continue for the North Slope and Brooks Range.
- Northerly winds increase through the Brooks range this weekend.
- Another multi-day period of near blizzard conditions expected
for the NE Arctic Coast Sunday through mid next week
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Little day to day change this week in the overall weather for much
of Alaska as surface high pressure and upper troughing overhead
have kept a dry and cold airmass in place. Mainly clear skies and
the increasing March sun angle have resulted in large diurnal
temperature swings with lows each morning in the -20F to -45F
range and highs reaching the single digits above and below zero.
Coldest spots remain in interior valleys while those at elevation
above the surface inversion have been noticeably warmer. Expect
this pattern to persist into at least Friday morning before the
core of the Arctic airmass shifts into the Northwest quadrant of
the state as the next weather system moves in from the southwest.
Focus shifts to the next winter storm expected to impact portions
of the Interior and Southern Alaska Friday through the weekend.
This is a relatively complex set up leading to lower than normal
confidence compared to the past several winter storms in
February. The set up involves a persistent upper low over the YK
Delta while strong southwesterly flow sets up on over the Gulf,
directing numerous systems into the AK Peninsula and South
Central Alaska. Ensemble guidance today has honed in on the track
of the surface low, with stronger agreement in a track directly
over Kodiak Island to the Kenai, then becoming quasi-stationary
over South Central Alaska Saturday before quickly weakening and
meandering into the Northeast Gulf over the weekend. The mid and
upper level low appear to be offset just to the northwest,
combining with the existing upper low in the YK Delta and becoming
quasi-stationary over the Central Interior and weakening
Saturday. Mid level vorticity maps show the frontal boundary on
the leading edge of the system pushing north of the Alaska Range
by Friday afternoon, then becoming elongated and stationary just
south of the brooks range. This frontal boundary will likely be
the focus for snow in the interior with heaviest snow expected
near the front from Eagle to the White Mountains and toward the
Dalton Highway Summits. Thinking Fairbanks and surrounding
locations could see a brief period of heavier snow as this frontal
boundary pushes through Friday afternoon into Friday evening,
before the band shifts northward.
The main area of concern is how much downsloping occurs on the
north side of the Alaska range and into the interior. With the
direction of the entire system coming from the southwest and likely
tracking over and just east of the Alaska Range, downsloping into
the interior may be relatively weak and directed more towards the
Tanana Valley. There may be a brief period Friday afternoon into
Friday evening where the orientation of the mid level low is good
for southerly winds over the Alaska range and downsloping. Forecast
soundings Friday show a strong easterly jet at and below 700mb
associated with the approaching front, while southwest flow above
that advects in deep moisture aloft. Both GFS and ECMWF forecast
soundings show deep saturation through the column and DGZ to
support snow as early as late Friday morning in Fairbanks and
surrounding areas. There are signs of subtle mid level downsloping
as evident by mid and low level dry air. While it should be
snowing north of the Alaska Range and into the Central and Eastern
Interior Friday, this drier layer from downsloping should keep
snowfall rates and overall accumulations lower. Also watching a
strong easterly low level jet on Friday, associated with the
incoming front, which may lead to lower snow to liquid rations
due to fracturing of snowflakes within the interior.
Overall, the timing of the best forcing for ascent appears to be
offset from the time when the best conditions occur for snow in
the interior without downsloping. Strongest forcing looks to be
during the frontal passage during the day Friday, at the same time
there will be some form of downsloping off the Alaska range. This
combination leads to overall lighter snow as the strong forcing
for ascent and heavier rates aloft battle with mid and low level
dry air and subsidence.
By Friday night, the overall system begins to weaken and the low
and mid level pressure gradient collapses. This is where
downsloping shuts off and deeper saturation through the lower
levels occurs, resulting in a brief period of heavier snow with
better snow to liquid ratios. At this time, expect snow to be
ongoing over the Eastern and Central Interior and also through the
Alaska Range. This quasi-stationary system basically sits over top
of the region while gradually weakening into Saturday night. The
extended period of light to occasionally moderate snow should lead
to widespread, yet light accumulations ranging from 4 to 7+ inches
within the white mountains to a dusting to under 3 inches for much
of the Interior. South and southwest facing slopes of the Alaska
Range could see much higher amounts; therefore a Winter Storm
Watch is still out for Isabell Pass and Eastern Alaska Range. A
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Dalton Highway
Summits, Fortymile Country, White Mountains, and High Terrain
South of the Yukon River where slightly higher snowfall amounts
may occur under the stalled boundary.
Watching winds Friday and Saturday as this system moves in. A
strong low level easterly jet develops as the frontal system moves
northward into the state. This should lead to windy conditions
with gusts of 35-45mph throughout the White Mountains and areas at
elevation in the Eastern and Central Interior, leading to blowing
snow and lower visibility at times. Expect northerly winds to
increase through Brooks Range passes as the northerly pressure
gradient tightens north of the front. Strong northerly winds
develop through the Bering Strait Thursday and then peak on
Saturday with gusts over 50 kts possible at times. Blowing snow
and reduced visibility likely for areas right on the coast prone
to strong northerly flow. Strong winds nearing Advisory levels
are expected to occur within the Tanana Valley including Delta
Junction on Friday. Downsloping around Delta Junction may result
in the timing of the strongest winds occuring before the main
round of snow arrives in the Tanana Valley. As the low level
pressure gradient collapses Friday night and downsloping weakens,
then Delta Junction and surrounding areas should begin receiving
snow.
As mentioned above, there is lower confidence with this forecast
as any deviations to the track of the system can significantly
impact sensible weather impacts north of the Alaska range due to
varying degrees of downsloping and where the best moisture
transport and forcing are located. At the moment, expect light
snowfall accumulations through the Central and Eastern Interior
Friday into Saturday with heavier snow amounts north of Fairbanks
in the White Mountains and also along south facing slopes of the
Alaska Range.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By late Saturday into Sunday, an additional shortwave moves into
the Gulf of Alaska and into Southeast Alaska shutting off moisture
advection into the Interior and shifting the heaviest
precipitation further southeast as well. As the entire system
weakens while still overhead, expect snow to gradually become
lighter and lighter before dissipating Saturday night.
Behind this system, yet another extended period of well below
normal temperatures is expected for the majority of Alaska. Deep
troughing sets up over NW Canada while ridging builds over the
Bering and Siberia, placing Alaska within a strong northerly flow
pattern aloft. This dry and cold pattern should support lows once
again in the double digits below zero, possibly nearing -40F again
in interior valleys. Will also have to watch for shortwaves riding
over the ridge and into the West Coast bringing chances for light
snow going into next week. Overall, the main focus will continue
to be the cold going into mid March.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-816-817-854-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
CRM
668
FXAK67 PAJK 050022
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Wed Mar 4 2026
.SHORT TERM...The low that has been bringing snow to the area has moved
inland and we are now seeing the onshore flow behind this system
take hold. Winds have slowly been shifting to the west for most
stations that are not sheltered from a west wind. With this surge of
wind from the west, temperatures have also been rising above
freezing with this surge. Most locations in this warmer air have
managed to jump into the mid to upper thirties allowing for a switch
from snow to rain. Satellite imagery shows another wave of precip
moving towards the area and some light returns have started to show
up off the coast on radar. These showers should bring some more rain
and snow to the area but current thinking is that most locations
will be limited to just a few inches of snow for areas that remain
snow or switch this evening.
The next front is then expected to move into the area tomorrow
bringing more rain and increased winds to the panhandle but is
expected to be weaker than the previous systems we have. After this
front moves through, a stronger system looks to enter the area for
the start of the long term period.
.LONG TERM...A warm and moist airmass looks to move across
Southeast Alaska through Friday as a strong low pressure system
tracks north of the panhandle. Associated with this strong low is
a particularly strong jet aloft, exceeding 130 knots, spreading
over the northern panhandle. The resulting pattern will see height
falls and pressure drops in the yukon, and pressure rises near
the southern panhandle. Therefore, a predominantly southerly wind
regime is in order for late this week into the weekend. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across the region on Friday
along with elevated snow levels. Rising snow levels combined with
strong southerly flow looks to mix out any remaining cold air,
transitioning areas in the northern panhandle to all rain.
Going into Friday night and Saturday, a surge of colder and moist
air will slowly begin to drop snow levels and convert precipitation
type back over to snow. The northern panhandle looks to see all snow
by Saturday morning, with areas to the south following over the
course of the day. Late in the weekend will see the aforementioned
jet drop south, driven by the northerly, cold winds aloft. This will
allow more cold air to move from north to south. Additionally, with
continued onshore flow, snow remains in the forecast late in the
weekend and into next week.
Forecast confidence in the overall synoptic pattern evolution is
moderate to high, particularly regarding the transition to colder
temperatures and a snowier regime by late Saturday and Sunday.
Confidence in precipitation type transition from rain to snow is
high. Main sources of uncertainty is in exact precipitation amounts,
especially for Friday and Saturday. As rain transitions to snow,
will need to pay attention to QPF trends particularly for the
Central Inner Channels and Prince of Wales Island Saturday into
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION..../Through 00z Friday/...
Snow showers have held on longer than anticipated across SE AK,
with areas across the northern half of the panhandle still
lurching into IFR territory on occasion, though areas without
shower activity have seen CIGS and VIS improve into VFR. While
shower activity will diminish through the evening hours, by
Thursday night, chances of snow begin ramping up as another system
approaches. As this system moves through on Thursday, expect an
initial burst of snow for areas from Wrangell northward, with a
changeover to rain through the late night and morning hours on
Thursday as warm air advances back northward. MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected with this system, with MVFR for most
locations and intermittent IFR conditions as heavier pockets of
precip move through. By Thursday afternoon, expect the Icy Strait
Corridor to be changing over to rain, and for more widespread MVFR
conditions as a result, as CIGS and VIS somewhat improve.
&&
.MARINE...Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds continue to trend down
across the Gulf waters this afternoon ahead of the next front that
is expected to move across the area late tonight into tomorrow. This
front will approach from the south bringing fresh to strong breezes
for the Gulf and coastal waters. Some pockets of near gales are
possible especially as the front moves closer to the Icy Bay and
Cape Suckling areas. Seas are expected to trend down through this
evening into tomorrow but could see a slight tick upward as the weak
front moves into the Gulf. Winds are expected to trend up though
with the system that is expected to move into the are for Friday.
Inside (Inner Channels): Outflow winds have diminished and are
shifting to the south and west this afternoon. Gales continue for
Cross Sound this afternoon as the westerly surge continues to push
inland. This surge is expected to diminish through the evening.
Winds are expected to drop to fresh to strong breezes for most
places but some pockets of near gales could be possible as a weak
front moves across the panhandle. Seas are expected to be around 3-6
ft for the Inner Channels with the exception of near ocean
entrances. Gales are expected to return to parts of the Inner
Channels by Friday as we see a gale force system affect the area.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-036-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF
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