286
FXAK68 PAFC 271352
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKDT Fri Jun 27 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Little has changed from this afternoon with satellite imagery
reveals a quasi-stationary, occluded, complex low pressure system
roughly situated south of Kodiak Island with mid level clouds
streaming northward into Cook Inlet, the Kenai Peninsula, and
farther inland. Coastal ridging along the Gulf coast continues
though it has weakened a bit, allowing for winds through Turnagain
Arm wind (to a lesser extent, the Knik Arm and Copper River Basin
gap winds) to come down. Aloft, there is a broad upper low
circulation tied to the aforementioned surface low with several
embedded troughs rotating around its periphery. This has allowed
for showers to continue along the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island
with a stray shower making it over to the Cook Inlet communities.
Farther south, the low`s front continues to trend slowly
northward and timing of precipitation in the short term forecast
has been the primarily forecast challenge. The front is not
expected to the Gulf coast until late tonight or early Saturday.
With certainty though, rain will likely remain for Kodiak Island
through at least Saturday morning and then gradually decrease
through the weekend. Showery conditions and small craft conditions
are also forecast primarily through the Shelikof Strait. Across
the Gulf, winds will be around 20 kts along the front. A wave of
precipitation may develop ahead of the front as it lifts toward
the northern Gulf. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may
develop along the foothills of higher elevations, including the
Alaska Range and the eastern slopes of the Talkeetna mountains
during the afternoon for today and Saturday.
The potential for precipitation chances across Southcentral
increases for this weekend as an easterly shortwave moves across
the Copper River Basin. Models continue to struggles with timing
and overall strength of the shortwave, making confidence of
details of the forecast lower than average. However, based on
current model guidance, there could be a few lightning strikes
associated with storms that may develop Saturday afternoon as
colder air moves in aloft with the wave, steepening lapse rates as
it does so. Not only does this provide instability, but it also
can increase rainfall rates within showers. Precipitation chances
then appear to spread into the Matanuska and Susitna Valley
Saturday afternoon and may stretch southwestward into Anchorage
and the western Kenai Peninsula as a combination of the
deformation band and added energy of the wave phases. Another
added possibility is that dynamics could align well enough to
develop a mesolow and work its way southwestward. Again, models
still are not in agreement on the timeframe as some models are
holding off until Sunday morning for any precipitation, and there
is still a question of how much rainfall the area could see. If
some of the short to mid range guidance today is correct, much of
Southcentral could see a soaking rain to start the work week,
especially in places with orographic enhancement. Details will
become more clear over the next few days.
-McCormick/Rux
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...
The large low south of Kodiak Island continues to slowly drift
eastward into the Gulf this morning while a surface trough
associated with the system moves across the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula into the North Pacific through this morning.
Light rain showers continue across much of Southwest Alaska as
precipitation spills over the Alaska Range within the easterly
flow associated with the aforementioned low. Light northerly flow
and widespread low stratus with areas of fog and lower
visibilities blankets the southern Bering and Aleutian Chain as a
ridge of high pressure continues to build in the western Bering.
The upper level shortwave currently over the western Interior
continues to track westward towards Norton Sound before stalling
near the coast on Saturday. Beyond this point, some uncertainty
remains on the track of the system though it looks likely the
system dips towards the south allowing for a period of light rain
to develop across the Kuskokwim Valley and northern portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, increasing temperatures and breaks in the clouds with
remnant moisture from the easterly waves will allow for the
development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening across the Western Alaska Range
and portions of Bristol Bay potentially extending as far south as
Dillingham and King Salmon. Further west, the potential for fog
continues underneath the ridge for the Aleutians and Southern
Bering through Saturday. By Sunday morning, a Kamchatka low begins
to flatten the ridge and moves into the western Bering bringing
gusty southerly winds and rain to the Aleutians.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
A broad, closed upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska maintains
its overall sojourn around the Gulf of Alaska and Eastern North
Pacific. Some additional support from a shortwave rotates around
the center with little change in strength through the forecast
period. A upper level Bering ridge eases over Western Alaska by
Thursday. Gaining some strength from the remnants of Tropical
Depression Sepat, an elongated trough over the Bering becomes a
closed upper low through the week. The overall guidance comes from
the GFS through the entire period, where the differences extend
with the rest of the models through the week mostly in the Western
portions of the region. An increased use of model ensemble
guidance is required after Tuesday.
The week opens up with a fairly strong Northwest Bering surface
low. Its front extends over the Bering and Western Alaska to the
Aleutians with locally moderate rain and breezy conditions, before
the Aleutian portion slides into the North Pacific late Monday.
The front continues moving into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Alaska for Tuesday, diminishing Tuesday night as the surface low
moves across the AKPEN. Locally moderate rain and isolated
thunderstorms subside over the Eastern Interior Alaska nearer the
Canadian border through Monday. Scattered showers remain across
most of the Southern Interior through Thursday.
- Kutz
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Turnagain
Arm winds have subsided this morning but return this afternoon
with sustained winds of 10 knots and gusts up to 15 knots possible
between 00Z and 09Z.
&&
$$
771
FXAK69 PAFG 262143
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKDT Thu Jun 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weather will be drying down in the Interior this afternoon through
tomorrow with more comfortable weather, seasonable temperatures
and light winds. The Brooks Range will keep chances for
thunderstorms through the weekend while the North Slope gradually
loses its stratus/fog this weekend. The Western Interior will be
wet today through tomorrow morning with a drying trend this
weekend. Thunderstorm chances continue from the Middle Yukon to
Noatak. The West Coast sees some showers with an isolated storm
possible from the Seward Pen to Kotzebue.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Generally drying out today. There are some showers north of the
Alaska Range which will be isolated throughout the Interior.
- A nice day Friday is expected with Saturday and Sunday returning
to some wet weather, especially in the Eastern Interior.
- Rain, heavy at times on Saturday and Sunday in the Fortymile
with the potential for it to continue through Monday.
- Potentially an inch or more of rain can fall from here to the
Eastern Alaska Range as moist, northeast, upslope flow
persists.
-Expect seasonable temps through the weekend.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Moderate to heavy rain today into tomorrow morning for the
Western Interior from the Lower Yukon Valley to the Brooks Range
with a widespread 0.25 to 0.50" and locally up to an inch with
persistent heavier showers.
- Isolated thunderstorms from the Middle Yukon Valley to the
Seward Peninsula northward today.
- Drier tomorrow with thunderstorm coverage mainly over the Brooks
Range. An isolated storm near McGrath and the Western AK Range
on Saturday, nearly no thunderstorms expected Sunday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Continued shower and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range through
the weekend.
- Stratus and areas of fog through Friday, then chances for
clearer conditions on the Arctic Coast and in the Plains as a
high drifts away from the coast.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A strong shortwave which provided nearly an inch of rain to the
Fairbanks area yesterday into today is moving off to the Western
Interior. This will stall a bit today and tomorrow before drifting
south. It will bring a heavy amount of rain to the Western
Interior. Easterly flow continues in the Eastern Interior with
chances for showers and storms, especially in the Northern
Interior and Southern Brooks Range. A ridge aloft tries to build
in from the east on Sunday with a low in the Gulf of Alaska. This
will set up northeast flow in the Eastern Interior, susceptible
for heavy rain and upslope flow from the Fortymile to the Eastern
Alaska Range. Otherwise, the weather remains mostly quiet on the
North Slope.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms will persist through the weekend with activity
becoming more spotty. The bulk of the activity today will be in
the Northern Interior and Brooks Range. Tomorrow it spreads south
to the Eastern Interior and Brooks Range with the focus on
Saturday and Sunday being in the Southeast Interior from the
Fortymile to the Eastern Alaska Range. Heavy rain is likely in the
Western Interior today with the Central and Eastern Interior
drying out today and tomorrow. Heavy rain is then looking more
likely in the Fortymile and Eastern Alaska Range Sunday through
early next week with the potential for an inch or more of rain.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm, mostly in the mid/upper 60s
to the mid 70s with the warmest spot being in the Yukon Flats.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns with the rivers, they will be gradually dropping.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
There are couple of things we are watching in the extended range.
First is Sunday to Tuesday, northeasterly flow in the Southeast
Interior and Eastern Alaska Range which can bring the potential
for heavy rain. The second is the potential for a blocking
pattern. There has been hints of a rex block (high over low
pressure) or an omega block (low, high, low from west to east).
There is some uncertainty with the overall pattern evolution but a
high is looking more likely to build into Alaska with a low in, or
near the Gulf of Alaska. This could bring the potential for
another week of high thunderstorm activity and warmer
temperatures.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-854-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&
$$
Bianco
715
FXAK67 PAJK 271236
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
436 AM AKDT Fri Jun 27 2025
.SHORT TERM.../through Friday night/...No big changes to the
inherited forecast for today. Still expecting a passing front to
bring more rain and some increased winds to the marine areas.
Key Messages:
-Passing front to keep clouds and rain chances over the panhandle.
-Wind speeds are expected to increase, especially in marine
areas, as the front passes through.
-Below normal temps expected today due to those clouds and rain.
Details:
Low pressure in the western gulf is swinging a front through the
panhandle today. This front will bring another round of rain and
increased wind. 24-hour rain amounts aren`t too impressive, at
around 0.50 to 0.75 inches. The 90th percentile is up to 1 inch.
Wind speeds are expected to increase briefly as the front tracks
through your area. But with the parent low so far from the
panhandle, the increase in wind speeds won`t be too bad, with land
areas seeing brief gusts upwards of 20 to 30 mph. Marine details
can be found in the marine section below.
.LONG TERM...The mid and extended range forecast continues to
feature a cold persistent upper low over the Gulf of Alaska. This
low will not move all that much over the next week and will even
be the eastern anchor for a possible omega block that may develop
over the Bering Sea toward the latter half of next week. What that
means for the panhandle is the continuation of cool, damp, and
cloudy weather as the position of the upper low favors onshore
flow over most of the panhandle through the period with some
embedded shortwaves moving through (mainly over this coming
weekend).
As for the weather features that will be affecting the panhandle
over the next week, the main player is the front and following
shortwaves that will be affecting the area this weekend into
monday (first front is Friday, a shortwave follows on Saturday and
a second short wave moves in on Monday). Of these features, it is
the shortwave on Saturday that is now looking to be the
strongest. Also it has a track a little further east then the
previous forecast had. Guidance has also started putting in higher
probabilities for min small craft winds (25kt) for the southern
near coastal waters and Clarence Strait midday Saturday into
Saturday evening as this feature moves in. Increased winds in
these areas as a result. Otherwise there are no signals for any
abnormally strong winds or really wetting rains through the mid
and extended range. However, the light rain will be persistent
especially from Friday through Monday with upwards of 1 to 2
inches of rainfall over the four day period with the highest
totals in the southern panhandle.
Active weather is expected to continue into the mid and late week
period with the upper low continuing to provide onshore flow
through the period. A couple more fronts expected for the mid to
late week period but timing is still variable.
&&
.AVIATION.../12z Friday to 12z Saturday/...The next passing front
has moved into the southern panhandle. Rain and rain showers will
track north through the area today, bringing lowered flying
conditions to SE AK.
So for today, mainly MVFR conditions that periodically lower to
IFR due to CIGs is expected. That being said, can`t rule out brief
LIFR at times.
For tonight, conditions lower even more to low-end MVFR to IFR due
to CIGs. VIS drops a bit as well, but mainly to around 4 to 6SM.
&&
.MARINE...
Outer Waters: Outer waters will see winds out of the ESE up to 20
kt as a front moves through. As this front swings inland and
northward Friday, expect southerly gulf winds to around 10 to 15
knots with another shift eastward and increase as another short
wave feature moves into the gulf from the south on Saturday.
Inside Waters: As this incoming front swings northward, wind
speeds across the inner channels will increase to upwards of 10
to 15 knots with locally higher wind speeds possible. Additional
waves of wind are likely this weekend with speeds upwards of 10 to
20 knots at times. Strongest winds speeds are expected in the
area of Dixon entrance and Clarence Strait Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...While surface temperatures remain seasonable, snow
levels remain elevated and snowmelt continues for the far northern
panhandle rivers and streams. The Chilkat River reached Minor
Flood stage early Thursday and while the river dipped below flood
stage Thursday afternoon, flooding is expected to return today as
the next round of rain moves through. The Flood Advisory is
currently in effect until 4PM Friday. The river will be closely
monitored by local meteorologists and hydrologists in case the
advisory will need to be adjusted.
For other areas around SE AK, flooding is not expected. Today`s 24
hour rainfall amounts are forecasted to be around 0.50 to 0.75
inches with high-end forecasts (the 90th percentile) near 1 inch.
Rain amounts like this are not usually a big concern but rivers
are being watched closely.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GJS/STJ
HYDROLOGY...GJS/STJ
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