748
FXAK68 PAFC 170255
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
655 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday afternoon)...
Generally expect unsettled weather through Friday night--with a
brief break during the day Saturday--before another round of
stormy weather begins Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The
primary hazard continues to be a long duration of light snow from
Paxson up to Isabel Pass and for the Thompson Pass area, with
overall accumulations on the order of 6-10 inches over the next 3
days.
Diving into the details... continued unsettled weather persists as
an upper low gradually pivots across Southern Alaska. With an
array of shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow and a lack of
strong surface features to help organize things, we`re getting
what amounts to be a lower impact but also lower confidence
forecast through Friday night. Many areas will see some
precipitation through Friday night, with greatest precipitation
amounts along the north Gulf coast including Prince William Sound.
While the Cook Inlet corridor (Kenai Peninsula up to Anchorage)
and Mat-Su will see lower precipitation overall, timing and exact
amounts are difficult to accurately predict under this more
showery regime. Precipitation type will also be tricky with our
growing daylight and overnight lows right around freezing;
generally expect a rain/snow mix, leaning more snow during the
cooler parts of the day and leaning more rain in the
afternoon/evening. As we`ve seen with recent events, lower
elevations will be unlikely to accumulate much snow given these
warmer temperatures.
As the upper low exits the area on Saturday and a ridge moves in,
there will be a brief break of drier weather. Then by late
Saturday into Sunday, a more complex and active pattern sets up as
a Bering Sea low begins to interact with an upper low dipping
south from northern Alaska. Models are handling this interaction
differently, which is leading to significant spread in model
solutions, both between the different deterministic models and
even between successive model runs. This system will be something
to keep an eye on due to the good moisture transport associated
with it, and the potential for periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation. Still, precipitation amounts and timing will be
difficult to ascertain until there is improved synoptic agreement.
Stay tuned.
-KC
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
Scattered showers continue across the eastern Bering and Southwest
through Friday afternoon, tapering off from west to east as the
existing shortwaves exit eastward. Diurnal swings in temperature
are allowing for snow at night and a mix of rain/snow or rain
during the day. Wind speeds will remain lighter for inland areas
and mostly sub-small craft for the Bering except for the western
Aleutians. This pattern will persist through late Friday morning
over the mainland.
To the west, changes arise Friday when an unseasonably strong low
moves into the Bering from the North Pacific. Storm force winds
and moderate to heavy precipitation are expected for the Adak
region as a sting jet moves over the area. Precipitation may
start as mixed before transitioning to all rain as warm air
advection moves in. The low will slowly move east over the
weekend. The leading front will bring a potential for blowing
snow across the Aleutian Chain Saturday through early Sunday, and
the Pribilof Islands for a few hours early Saturday morning before
temperatures warm. These blowing snow conditions will continue
along the front, reaching the coastal portion of the Kuskokwim
Delta Saturday afternoon as the front pushes inland. Despite the
warm air advection in front of the low, cold air will wrap around
the back of the low, allowing for higher instability and showery
precipitation to form over the Bering as the low moves east.
Looking ahead to next week, an Arctic trough dips into Southwest
Alaska, potentially dropping low temperatures into the teens and
single digits across the Southwest Mainland beginning Monday
night. These temperatures combined with lingering precipitation
from the strong low means widespread snowfall is possible over the
same period.
AB/JAR
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...
The upcoming week features a transition to cooler temperatures
and unsettled weather across much of the State. A stable weather
pattern descending from the north will bring a week of chillier
air and intermittent snow showers to the interior and the Alaskan
Range. Simultaneously, a weakening but still potent storm in the
southern Bering Sea continues to pose a risk to mariners while
driving gusty winds and steady precipitation across the Aleutians,
the Alaskan Peninsula dn Southwest Alaska.
By early to mid-next week, focus shifts to Southcentral and
Southeast regions as a developing storm pulls a deep plume of
moisture into the area. This setup is expected to produce several
days of moderate to heavy rain and snow with particularly heavy
snow accumulation in the Alaska Range alongside high winds through
mountain passes. We are also monitoring a very strong North
Pacific low. While it currently expected to pass south of the
state, there is a possibility it could turn towards the Gulf of
Alaska, potentially brining another round of significant weather
late next week.
-DD
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered light rain/snow showers will continue through
through Friday with periodic drops in visibility as showers move
over the terminal. Ceilings of 5-6 kft may rise to 7-9 kft before
ceilings start to decrease into the MVFR to IFR range by Friday
morning and precipitation changes back to light snow. Winds will
generally remain out of the north at 5-10 kts, but could see a
switch to light southeasterly winds at times.
&&
$$
016
FXAK69 PAFG 162241
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as persistent
moisture gets fed into Northern Alaska. North of the Brooks Range,
stratus, areas of fog and well below normal temperatures will be
the main story moving forward. Otherwise, from the Brooks Range
southward, rain and snow showers are expected and will be mainly
unimpactful outside of a couple of slick spots in shady/elevated
spots. The one exception is Isabel Pass south of Trims Camp where
we expect snow, heavy at times today through Saturday afternoon. A
Winter Weather Advisory is issued and has more details. Isabel
Pass and the Central/Eastern Interior will see snow and rain
lessen in coverage Saturday evening into Sunday. By this time,
the next low will be felt in SW Alaska with snow, gusty wind and
low visibility. Afterwards there is an abundance of uncertainty
with where the moisture goes and this will be expanded on in the
Extended Forecast Discussion.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Rain and snow showers persist in the Interior with steadier
snow moving into the southern AK Range through Saturday.
* Snowfall totals will generally be less than 1 inch in the
Interior and around 6 to 12 inches south of Trims Camp with up
to 18 inches away from the road.
- High temperatures remain in the 30s and low 40s with low temps
in the teens and 20s. Warmest temps are expected to reside in
the Middle/Upper Tanana Valley.
- Another round of snow, potentially heavy again in the southern
AK Range Sunday through Tuesday with significant accumulations
possible. Lighter snow and rain possible in the Interior with
minor accumulations possible.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- A brief "lull" in the wind speed along the Bering Strait with
sustained winds around 15 to 25 mph today, but northeast winds
increase tomorrow afternoon and continue to to increase through
Saturday.
* Northeast wind gusts in St. Lawrence Island by Saturday evening
will be as high as 55 mph. Elsewhere along the coast, expect
northeast wind gusts around 25 to 45 mph with the weakest being
in Norton Sound.
- Steady snow moves into SW AK Saturday night and spreads
north/east through Sunday. Blowing snow and low visibility below
1 mile at times is possible in the YK Delta on Sunday.
* Snow accumulations from Sunday to Monday may be as high as 6
inches in portions of the Western Interior, especially in
higher terrain.
- Similar temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday.
A cooling trend arrives on Friday with highs in the teens and
20s from Shungnak to St. Lawrence Island. Highs in the low 30s
from Nome to Hooper Bay and mid to upper 30s in the Interior.
* Expect a continued cooling trend into Saturday with 20s to
near 30 hanging on in the YK Delta, teens and low 20s north
of there along the coast and upper 20s to mid 30s in the
Interior.
- Wind chills as low as -20F to -30F are possible in the Bering
Strait Region Saturday and Sunday as temperatures drop and winds
increase.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast will persist
through Saturday morning but there will be breaks Saturday
afternoon.
- Areas of snow move over the Central Brooks Range Friday night
and continues through Saturday and into Sunday.
* Snow totals around 3 to 7 inches are possible with the heaviest
being around Coldfoot/Wiseman and the lightest being in
Anaktuvuk/Atigun Pass.
- Light snow then moves to the North Slope with around 1 to 2
inches of snow from Umiat north and east.
- Temperatures remain chilly for the Brooks Range with highs
around 0 along the Beaufort Sea Coast, single digits in
Atigun/Anaktuvuk Pass, 10 to 20F near Point Hope and 20s to near
30 in the southern Brooks Range.
* Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens below
zero from the Brooks Range northward with teens above zero in
around Wiseman/Coldfoot.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
At 500mb we currently have a 545 dam ridge north of Siberia,
easterly flow with a stalled boundary over the North Slope,
westerly flow over the Interior/West Coast and a 580 dam ridge
over the east Pacific extending north into the Gulf. To the West
over the Bering Sea, there is troughing and a copious amount of
shortwave troughs rotating around a 522 dam low over Nunivak
Island. All of this is working together to provide an ample amount
of cloud cover and scattered rain/snow showers for much of
Northern Alaska. As we head through the night, the trough will dig
southward allowing for southerly flow into the southern/eastern
AK Range. This southerly flow will result upslope snow for the
south slopes of the AK Range. The snow will be heavy at times
resulting in a snowy and slushy mess after sunrise and before
sunset today, tomorrow and Saturday.
Heading into Sunday, a lot of these pieces move around allowing
for a low in the Bering to provide a front with snow and wind to
the West Coast. There will also be an arctic trough dropping south
from the North Pole and this will provide a resurgence of arctic
air over the western half of Northern Alaska. Both of these
combined will make for strong winds through the Bering Strait and
very cold wind chills as low as -30F this weekend. Snow and
blowing snow is expected in the YK Delta beginning on Sunday. This
snow will traverse northeastward through the day Sunday and into
Monday.
The Central and Eastern Interior may get some of this snow and
that is one thing we are monitoring. Guidance has been waffling
back and forth with where the upper trough from the arctic goes.
Current thoughts are that it will be centered near the Chukchi Sea
Coast allowing for the flow into the Interior to be southwesterly.
This would chinook the Eastern Interior keeping it dry in the
Upper Tanana but also bring snow to much of the terrain north of
Fairbanks. Snowfall totals are uncertain but several inches of
snow are possible Sunday night through Monday, especially in the
White Mountains, Dalton Highway Summits and Yukon-Tanana Uplands.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
To start out the extended time frame, an extensive area of
precipitation (mostly snow) will extend from the YK Delta
northeast across western portions of the Interior. There is
uncertainty on exactly how far east or west this area will be.
A majority of model guidance places the band along an axis
extending from the YK Delta to near Bettles, although a few
outliers extend it in a more northward direction, reaching into
the Western Brooks Range. Regardless, in the area of this primary
band, liquid-equivalent precipitation could range from 0.2 to 0.5
inches. While the southern portions of this area could see some
daytime transition to rain when it is warmest, most precipitation
will likely fall as snow. While there is uncertainty on totals in
part due to uncertain snow ratios, there is some model support for
ratios of 15:1 or higher, which could potentially support over
six inches of snow in many areas. Some light snow will also be
possible over the North Slope beginning this weekend and running
through early next week. By Monday, some of the precipitation in
the Western/Central Interior could begin pushing into the Eastern
Interior, with scattered snow/rain showers remaining possible
through late in the week. There is high uncertainty with the
precipitation type and timing as there`s the potential for chinook
flow over the Interior. It is possible that the Tanana Valley
remains dry while just to the north in the higher terrain, it is
snowing and accumulating. Current thoughts would lead towards a
blend of both. The event should begin mostly dry in the Tanana
Valley while snowing north, then as the aforementioned arctic
trough drifts east, it would bring steadier snow east into the
Central/Eastern Interior Monday into Tuesday. During the midweek
timeframe, cold air over Western Alaska could briefly intrude into
the central and eastern parts of the state, which could drop
highs even in the warmer valleys to near or below freezing.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-811-817-854-856-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&
$$
Bianco
894
FXAK67 PAJK 170656
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1056 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF issuance...
&&
.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Night/...Our current weather pattern
continues with a series of fronts pushing in, bringing primarily
rain to the Panhandle with light snow with accumulations remaining
below advisory levels, specifically remaining around 2 inches or
less for each 12-hour period, for upper elevation areas like the
Klondike HWY. For the short-lived ridging breaks between the fronts,
expect primarily rain showers with moist onshore flow for the
region. Up to around 25 kt small craft advisory southerly gradient
winds are anticipated through Friday for primarily northern Lynn
Canal & for late tonight for Stephens Passage in the Inner
Channels. For this afternoon through Friday, up to around a 25 to
30 kt barrier jet looks to remain set up just west of Icy Bay &
going out about 20 nm offshore.
.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Heading into Saturday
morning, a broad, fast-moving low will jump up to around the 50th
parallel north and send an occluding frontal band north into the
far southeastern gulf. Guidance is still somewhat split on how far
north this front will go, but there is agreement that this will
most likely scrape the southern portions of the panhandle.
Combined with another frontal band from the remnants of the low in
the northern gulf, a majority of the panhandle will be seeing
around half an inch of precipitation through Saturday. Rainfall
rates are expected to taper off through Sunday morning before
another front moves along the northern gulf coast Sunday
afternoon, forcing the lingering precipitation to shift southeast
out of the panhandle. Uncertainty has somewhat improved from
yesterday, with models coming more in line with a potential break
in rainfall Sunday afternoon before the next frontal band moves
into the northeast gulf coast. Locations near Yakutat and along
the northern gulf coast will see the most rainfall with this
system on Sunday, but the frontal band is expected to spread into
the rest of the panhandle by Monday. Due to the northern track of
this front, precipitation has the possibility of falling as snow
overnight for northern locations near Yakutat and the northern
highways. Gusty winds through the outer gulf waters and into the
N/S oriented channels will be present with this frontal band. High
temperatures look to slightly increase through the period, though
low temperatures look to stay relatively consistent around mid
30s. This front looks to push southeastward Tuesday, dragging
precipitation through the central & into the southern panhandle
through the rest of the period with post-frontal moist onshore-
flow showery activity following behind it into the future. For
Tuesday, expect an increase in WSW winds up to 35 to 40 kt gales
for the southern half of the eastern gulf waters associated with
the aforementioned weather system.
&&
.AVIATION.../through 6z Saturday/...The frontal band moving
eastward into the panhandle is sitting just offshore as of late
Thursday night, about to push into the outer coast of the
panhandle. Yakutat is already in the thick of it, seeing light
snowfall with restricted VIS down to 1 to 2 SM with CIGs around
1000 ft. This will eventually turn to rain through the early
morning hours, though overall accumulations will remain low and
inevitably wash out. The rest of the panhandle is expected to see
majority rain with this system, though areas north of the Icy
Strait Corridor may see snow mixing as the front initially moves
through. The front will bring conditions down to MVFR to IFR
overnight and into Saturday morning, with lowered CIGs AoB 2000 ft
and VIS AoB 4 SM. Snow level is very low with this system, so
higher elevations will see snow through the night. IFR conditions
will be the predominant flight category overnight as the front
initially moves over, but conditions are expected to raise
slightly back to MVFR through Saturday once the front moves
northeast out of the area. Moisture will continue to funnel
widespread showers into the panhandle behind the front, keeping
precipitation in the TAFs for the panhandle. A more reinforced
band of showers is expected to move through Saturday night, which
may bring conditions back down to IFR.
&&
.MARINE...The broad high pressure system that brought
northwesterly flow at 20 kt across the eastern Gulf of Alaska
yesterday with diurnally driven southerly winds in more sunshine
over the northern inside waters has switch to a more broad (and
lighter) westerly flow over the eastern Gulf and another round of
southerly winds (slightly lighter today though) across Lynn Canal
and portions of Stephens Passage. As we note a small low pressure
system moving across the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight into
Friday, and an associated warm front moving northeast across the
eastern Gulf, we will see an increase in winds off Icy Cape and
Cape Suckling tonight (east to southeasterly 20 to 25 kt with 6 to
8 ft seas) and increasing southerly winds for Lynn Canal and
portions of Stephens Passage tonight into early Friday due to a
tightening north to south pressure gradient. These areas are where
we have posted Small Craft Advisories tonight into early Friday.
Otherwise, we note an increase in winds for the northeastern Gulf
of Alaska and the northern Inner Channels Monday into Tuesday as
we see a somewhat stronger low pressure system move east along the
northern Gulf early next week, and another low passes us to the
south across Haida Gwaii.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-031-652-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Garmon
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
