Sweltering heat remains across the South-Central Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southwest this week with limited nighttime relief. Thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding in portions of the Desert Southwest and central Plains. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains into the Northeast. Read More >
Overview
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An active "ring of fire" atmospheric pattern supported multiple rounds of thunderstorms tracking across central Illinois between the dates of August 13th-15th, which led to significant flash flooding. Counties positioned along the Interstate 74 corridor received the highest 3-Day rainfall totals, measuring between 3 and 6 inches, but with localized amounts between 8 to 12 inches. Some of the highest totals fell across portions of Fulton and Tazewell counties, where the average recurrence interval over the 72-hour period suggested a 1-in-1000 year rainfall event. There were dozens of reports of urban and small stream flooding, which caused multiple roads to become impassable. Several reports of stalled and stranded vehicles prompted emergency response, And, two flood-related fatalities were confirmed. |
 WSR-88D Radar - Lincoln (KILX) |
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| Wall-to-wall Flash Flood Warnings depicted across central Illinois the morning of Aug. 15, 2026. | Many areas have received 400-600% of their normal monthly total rainfall for the month of August with this 3-day blitz of repeated rain. | Weather Prediction Center (WPC) - Excessive Rainfall Outlook Day 1 |
Flooding
A few regional creeks measured near-record crests following this heavy rainfall event, and many of the main riverways continue to experience minor-to-moderate flooding.
Hydrographs
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| Middle Fork Vermilion River above Oakwood | Vermilion River (E-IL) near Danville | Sangamon River at Fisher | Sangamon River at Monticello |
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| Sugar Creek (Central IL) near Bloomington | Little Kickapoo Creek near Heyworth | Kickapoo Creek at Waynesville | Mackinaw River near Congerville |
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| Mackinaw River near Green Valley | Spoon River at London Mills | Spoon River at Seville |
Photos & Video
McLean County (Kickapoo Creek)
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| Crestwicke Neighborhood south of Bloomington, IL (Kristina Desphine Bentz shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Crestwicke Neighborhood south of Bloomington, IL (Stacy Schoeling Herren shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Near Ireland Grove Rd southeast of Bloomington, IL (NWS Employee) |
Near Ireland Grove Rd southeast of Bloomington, IL (NWS Employee) |
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| IL State Route 9...east of N2100 East Rd. (NWS Employee) |
Piatt County (Madden Creek & Sangamon River)
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| Mansfield, IL (Gina Luree shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Monticello, IL (Lisa Darsham shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
N 1300th E Rd near White Heath, IL (Nick Stokowski shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Champaign County
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| Lake of the Woods, IL (Kevin Lighty) |
Barber Park Mahomet, IL (Kevin Lighty) |
Sidney, IL (Jessica Dawn shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
South side of Rantoul US Highway 45 (IDOT) |
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| Middle Fork River Forest Preserve County Rd 3500 N (Caylynn Jones-Rimmer shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
St. Joseph, IL (Payton Retter shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Vermillion County
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| Red Bridge near Danville, IL (Debra Kay shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Danville Township (Zach Weddle shared w/ Jacob Dickey via social media) |
Rain Reports
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1021 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS THE LAST 3 DAYS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Illinois... ...Cass County... 3 SE Bluff Springs 4.19 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Beardstown 3.50 in 1010 AM 08/16 CWOP ...Champaign County... Fisher 8.23 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP Rantoul 1.1 NE 7.16 in 0331 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 1 N Urbana 6.77 in 1015 AM 08/16 AWS 1 NE Rantoul 6.73 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Dewey 2.70 NW 6.69 in 0737 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Mahomet 1.6 E 6.66 in 0645 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 0.3 NNE 6.45 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Mahomet 1.0 NW 6.29 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 0.3 ESE 6.17 in 0830 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Mahomet 5.99 in 0900 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 0.1 SSE 5.88 in 0745 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 0.6 NNE 5.87 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS St. Joseph 1.1 ENE 5.70 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 1.3 SSW 5.67 in 0630 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 2.6 ENE 5.61 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 0.5 W 5.55 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 4 WNW Saint Joseph 5.51 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Mahomet 1.7 NNE 5.40 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 2.4 SSE 5.39 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 1.9 ENE 5.37 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Tolono 0.4 ESE 5.34 in 0745 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 1.5 S 5.26 in 0731 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 1.6 ESE 5.24 in 0723 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Champaign 2.3 SSE 5.22 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Homer 2.1 NNE 5.19 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 5.14 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Homer 2.0 NW 5.11 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 2.2 SE 5.08 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 0.3 SE 5.03 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 3 NNE Villa Grove 5.01 in 1010 AM 08/16 AWS Savoy 0.6 SSE 4.99 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Homer 2.0 N 4.91 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Savoy 2.6 WSW 4.86 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 2 ESE Urbana 4.78 in 1010 AM 08/16 AWS Champaign 2.2 SSE 4.73 in 0730 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 4.71 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Urbana 0.5 S 4.66 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Homer 0.5 NNE 4.65 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Sidney 0.9 N 4.64 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 3 WSW Homer 4.48 in 1010 AM 08/16 AWS Urbana 4.35 in 1010 AM 08/16 CWOP Urbana 4.33 in 1010 AM 08/16 CWOP PHILO 4.07 in 1001 AM 08/16 CWOP Willard Arpt 4.07 in 0953 AM 08/16 ASOS Urbana 3.87 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP 0.7 SE Champaign 3.80 in 1000 AM 08/16 HADS 2.5 W Champaign 3.12 in 0915 AM 08/16 USGS ...Coles County... Charleston 0.8 NW 4.13 in 0900 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Charleston 3.86 in 0955 AM 08/16 ISWS Charleston 4.7 SSW 3.14 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...De Witt County... Waynesville 5.60 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP Farmer City 2.7 WSW 4.65 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Lane 3.57 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP ...Douglas County... Newman 6.31 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Tuscola 0.6 NNE 3.89 in 0830 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Tuscola 0.5 WSW 3.74 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Tuscola 3.74 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP ...Fulton County... Canton 10.09 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP Bryant 0.1 ENE 8.08 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS London Mills 1.4 SE 7.05 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 0.7 W London Mills 6.31 in 0945 AM 08/16 USGS Lewistown 4.38 in 1010 AM 08/16 CWOP ...Knox County... St. Augustine 0.1 NNW 6.48 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Yates City 5.59 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP Knoxville 0.7 NW 5.26 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Galesburg 5.24 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP Galesburg 2.5 N 5.19 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Knoxville 4.95 in 0800 AM 08/16 COOP Galesburg 5.7 E 4.85 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 2 SSE Dahinda 4.72 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Delong 4.40 in 1009 AM 08/16 CWOP Williamsfield 1.7 NNE 4.29 in 0630 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Logan County... Mount Pulaski 4.09 in 0600 AM 08/16 COOP Hartsburg 3.2 E 4.05 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Macon County... Latham 1.8 SE 3.06 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Illiopolis 4.4 NNE 3.04 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Mason County... 0.7 W Havana 3.11 in 0945 AM 08/16 HADS ...McLean County... Bloomington 3.9 ESE 8.88 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 1.5 ESE 8.50 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Heyworth 0.6 E 8.30 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 5.0 WSW 7.78 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 2.7 NE 7.71 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 4.1 SW 7.24 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 1.6 WSW 7.10 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington 6.78 in 1008 AM 08/16 CWOP Bloomington 0.9 SSE 6.76 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Hudson 0.8 S 5.99 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Normal 1.2 ESE 5.98 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Saybrook 4.3 SSE 5.43 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Normal 3.6 NE 5.37 in 0830 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Carlock 2.1 NNE 4.96 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 4 NE Normal 4.70 in 0500 AM 08/16 COOP Normal 1.4 WNW 4.39 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Bloomington Arpt 4.17 in 0956 AM 08/16 AWOS Colfax 3.3 NNW 3.73 in 0756 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Menard County... Petersburg 0.2 W 3.35 in 0645 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Morgan County... 2.0 E Jacksonville 4.23 in 0645 AM 08/16 COOP Jacksonville 2.6 SE 4.10 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 1 NNE Jacksonville Airport 3.77 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Jacksonville Arpt 3.09 in 0955 AM 08/16 AWOS ...Peoria County... Dunlap 2.6 NE 6.24 in 0659 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Peoria 5.75 in 1009 AM 08/16 CWOP Dunlap 2.6 S 5.46 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Peoria 3.4 WNW 5.03 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Peoria 5 NW 4.87 in 0800 AM 08/16 COOP Peoria Intl Arpt 4.46 in 0954 AM 08/16 ASOS ...Piatt County... White Heath 3.7 NNE 6.14 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Mansfield 3.2 NE 5.91 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS De Land 3.3 NE 5.31 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Monticello 0.4 ENE 4.42 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Sangamon County... Buffalo 3.34 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP 2 W Riverton 3.05 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Stark County... Wyoming 0.3 SSW 3.38 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Toulon 0.5 ESE, IL 3.06 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Tazewell County... Tremont 7.2 SW 11.57 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS 3 NW Hopedale 9.56 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Pekin 6.45 in 1006 AM 08/16 CWOP Pekin 6.23 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP Washington 2.1 NW 5.44 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Washington 2.0 NNW 5.38 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Morton 5.33 in 0700 AM 08/16 COOP Washington 5.05 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP Morton 5.1 E 4.88 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Washington 4.87 in 1001 AM 08/16 CWOP Washington 4.77 in 1001 AM 08/16 CWOP Washington 2.3 W 4.36 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS East Peoria 4.15 in 1008 AM 08/16 CWOP East Peoria 3.96 in 1001 AM 08/16 CWOP 1 NNW Morton 3.95 in 1015 AM 08/16 AWS Morton 3.90 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Goodfield 3.00 in 1005 AM 08/16 CWOP ...Vermilion County... Collison 1.9 SE 9.00 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Danville 3.1 NNW 8.75 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Danville 8.22 in 1006 AM 08/16 CWOP Danville 4.2 NW 8.21 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Henning 3.4 SE 6.92 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Hope 6.89 in 1000 AM 08/16 CWOP Danville 0.7 NNW 6.54 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Danville 6.31 in 0554 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Danville 2.5 E 6.06 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Fithian 2.6 ESE 6.02 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Fithian 6.4 N 5.83 in 0730 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Fithian 0.6 NNW 5.33 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Georgetown 0.1 NNW 4.92 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Sidell 4N 4.73 in 0830 AM 08/16 COOP Hoopeston 0.6 E 4.36 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Oakwood 0.5 SSE 3.85 in 0600 AM 08/16 COCORAHS ...Woodford County... East Peoria 6.9 NNE 6.71 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Germantown Hills 1.0 W 6.63 in 0830 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Metamora 6.4 W 6.60 in 0800 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Germantown Hills 0.5 SSW 6.59 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Metamora 6.1 W 6.37 in 0700 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Metamora 1.1 WNW 3.38 in 0740 AM 08/16 COCORAHS Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. $$
Environment
Evening forecast analysis ahead of thunderstorm expansion indicated a quasi-stationary front extending from northeast KS through northern MO into south-central IL. Additionally, our 00z (7 p.m.) RAOB observed an exceptionally moist airmass over central Illinois, measuring 2.25 inches of Precipitable Water (PWAT). This measured water vapor content stands above the 99th percentile relative to mid-August climatological norms.
Surface Analysis:
00z RAOB report:
By about Midnight local time on August 15th, GOES-E infrared satellite imagery was indicating a well-defined MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) advancing east across central IA, in close proximity to a strong elevated instability gradient situated along and north of the quasi-stationary front.
Satellite (Infrared):
Instability Gradient (MUCAPE):
As a strengthening low-level jet above 30 knots overran the surface front, it drove robust moisture and instability transport into the southern flank of the MCV. This influx, combined with enhanced isentropic forcing and lift, created an environment capable of producing extreme rainfall rates.
Low-level Jet Axis & Warm-advection/Isentropic Processes:
Because antecedent conditions were already quite wet from the preceding rainfall, minimal additional precipitation was required to trigger flash flooding. Short-term model guidance captured this localized threat well. Specifically, the Hi-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) from this same evening–about 4 hours prior to the onset of heavy rain–correctly pinpointed a narrow band of 5"+ rainfall accumulation extending from southeast Iowa into central Illinois.
HREF 6-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), Ensemble Probability Matched Mean (PMM):
In meteorology, the term "Ring of Fire" describes a summer atmospheric setup where a stubborn high-pressure heat dome locks hot, dry air in its interior. This configuration channels moisture and instability along its outer perimeter, triggering a recurring loop of severe thunderstorm activity. Acting as a conveyor belt, this periphery steers storm complexes and squall lines around its margins while extreme heat persists underneath the dome.
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