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Latest PA Weather Summary:

797
AWUS81 KCTP 232059
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-241100-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
459 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

A cold front will cross Pennsylvania this evening into early
tonight accompanied by scattered rain showers. Shower activity
will diminish as it progresses from northwest to southeast across
the Commonwealth. Low temperatures overnight into Thursday morning
will range from the upper 30s across the Allegheny Plateau to the
mid-50s near Philadelphia.

Building high pressure will bring clearing skies for Thursday
although some clouds could linger across the Alleghenies. Cooler
temperatures are expected on Thursday, with high temperatures
ranging from the lower 50s across the north to the mid-to-upper
60s near Philadelphia.

After a subtle warm up on Friday, another cold frontal passage
Friday night will reinforce the cooler temperatures for the
upcoming weekend with showers Friday evening into Saturday morning
across western Pennsylvania.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

564
FXUS61 KCTP 240214
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1014 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front near the South Shore of Lake Erie will push
through the region late today and early tonight. An area of
high pressure will build in behind it for Thursday and much of
Friday.

Another cold front will push across the region Friday night
into early Saturday, followed by high pressure that will linger
over the region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A cold front, which lies across Lk Erie at 23Z, will push
southeast across Central PA overnight, exiting the southeast
portion of the forecast area by around 08Z. Although this front
is lacking deep moisture, fairly robust large scale forcing is
currently supporting scattered convection along and just ahead
of the front over Lk Erie and near the PA/OH border. Therefore,
we are currently carrying chance POPs across Northern PA and
likely POPs in the vicinity of KBFD, an area targeted by the
latest HRRR and upstream radar trends. Based on upstream
reports, will also mention the chance of tsra across the NW Mtns
this evening. The latest RAP indicates a diminishing chance of
tsra further east, due to expected cooling of boundary layer.
Any rainfall should be quite light (<0.10 inches) based on
latest near term models.

The post-frontal NW flow will be cold enough to support lake
effect stratocu and isolated rain showers/sprinkles over the NW
Mtns late this evening. However, falling inversion heights
should cause any showers to taper off after 2 or 3 AM with
clearing skies downwind of the Appalachians. See no reason to
deviate significantly from NBM min temps, which range from
around 40F over the Allegheny Plateau, to the low and mid 50s
in the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure building into PA should result in fair weather
and diminishing winds Thursday. Lingering lake effect stratocu
is likely across the N Mtns during the morning. Otherwise, model
RH fields support mostly sunny skies. GEFS 2m temps return to
near average for late October, with expected highs ranging from
the mid 50s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to the
low and mid 60s across the Lower Susq Valley. Model soundings
show very dry air above a weak inversion Thursday afternoon, a
signature that reliably predicts dewpoints falling below NBM
guidance.

All guidance supports fair and chilly conditions Thursday night
with min temps likely a bit below NBM, as surface high and low-
pwat airmass builds directly over PA. A milder return southwest
flow is expected Friday, as the high drifts off the Mid Atlantic
coast. GEFS 2m temp anomalies indicate highs will be several
degrees above climo. Increasing clouds are expected across the
northwest half of the forecast area Friday afternoon ahead of
an approaching cold front, with the chance of showers toward
dusk over the NW Mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front is progged to push southeast across PA Friday
night. However, the bulk of the large scale forcing should pass
north of the state, so any rainfall should be very light and
confined mainly to the N Mtns.

All medium range guidance supports an extended stretch of fair
weather Saturday through early next week, as a large surface
high builds east across the state. Slightly below normal temps
appear likely Sat night into Monday, then a milder return
southwest flow is likely by Tuesday, as the surface high slips
off of the Mid Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Late evening update.

Upper level forcing has resulted in some showers and even
a rumble of thunder across the north and west so far.

Adjusted the western TAF sits for this activity. Will adjust
the sites to the east shortly.

Earlier discussion below.

Edge of the cold front was just west of the office here late
this afternoon, now waiting for the upper level trough to move
across later this evening. This has resulted in showers and even
some borderline thunderstorms over far western PA.

For the 00Z TAF package, will leave showers out for now, but
will adjust the fcst as needed. With the dry air in place and
loss of heating most if not all the activity to the north and
west will likely fall apart.

I also did back off on lower CIGS a bit at BFD and JST, still
forecasting MVFR CIGS late. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions
elsewhere. A bit breezy on Thursday, but not real windy, as the
the pressure gradient not that tight and the high builds in
rather quickly.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR/no sig wx.

Friday Night-Sat...Showers and MVFR conditions possible at BFD
and JST. Sfc wind gusts from 280-320 degrees 20kt. Showers less
likely to the south and east.

Sun-Mon...Brief IFR conditions possible early (07Z-13Z Monday)
at KBFD and KIPT as a result of fog/stratus, otherwise VFR
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature of 79 degrees was set at Altoona on
Wednesday (October 23rd), breaking the record of 78 degrees set
in 2020.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/NPB

Latest Public Information Statement:

270
NOUS41 KCTP 230849
PNSCTP
PAZ017>019-024>026-033>035-232000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
449 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS PLANNED STATION OUTAGE AT
ALTOONA TODAY...

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Station WNG-589, located in
Altoona, will be off the air for much of the day today, October
23, for planned maintenance. The broadcast should be restored by
tonight.

This outage will also impact the weekly NOAA Weather Radio Test.
We apologize for the inconvenience.

$$