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Latest PA Weather Summary:

171
AWUS81 KCTP 280855
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-282300-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
455 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

Sweltering heat and humidity will close out one of the warmest
starts to the summer season on record across most of
Pennsylvania. Heat indices will climb close to or exceed the
century mark in the central and eastern valleys particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing an elevated risk of heat-related
illnesses and impacts.

Thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall are possible on Wednesday and Thursday during the
afternoon and evening.

A significant pattern shift will deliver a prolonged stretch of
comfortably cooler and refreshingly less humid conditions from
late week through the first weekend of August.

$$

MRS

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

269
FXUS61 KCTP 281108
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
708 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Sweltering heat and humidity to close out one of the warmest
starts to the summer season (June + July) on record
* Thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain are most likely
Wednesday and Thursday
* A significant pattern shift will deliver a prolonged stretch
of comfortably cooler and refreshing conditions to start the
month of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued SPS for locally dense fog across the western Alleghenies
until 1230UTC/0830AM. Fog/stratus blend will mix out quickly
after sunrise as temps rise into the 80s by mid morning. Today
will be another hot and humid day across central PA with fcst
max temps in the mid 80s to low 90s are +5 to +10 degrees above
the historical average for late July. It will feel even hotter
particularly from the south central Alleghenies throughout the
middle and lower Susquehanna Valley where dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s will result in a max heat index very close to
the century mark. Mainly clear and muggy again tonight with
areas of fog and minimum temps in the low 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An expansive 590+dm upper ridge/heat dome will continue to
dominate the weather in CPA through Tuesday with persistent to
potentially dangerous heat/humidity and little to no rainfall.
The upper ridge starts to break down on Wednesday (neutral to
slightly negative height falls) which will correspond to an
uptick in precip probs for midweek.

Tuesday looks like the hottest day with fcst max temps in the
upper 80s to mid 90s across the entire CWA. Highs on Wednesday
tick a bit lower over the northern tier, but remain sizzling hot
in the 90-95F range across the south central and southeastern
portions of the forecast area. There is some concern for dry air
mixing to result in lower Td and therefore lower max HX for both
days, however the signal is probably strong enough for the
issuance of multi-day heat advisory within the next forecast
cycle. For now, we will continue to message the heat risk in the
HWO and start a new IDSS partner briefing.

A seasonably strong cold front impinging on a very moist and
unstable airmass should trigger sct thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. High pwats suggest locally heavy rainfall/rates are
possible and WPC has added all of CPA to the MRGL risk ERO for
D3/Wed. SPC has also introduced low end severe wind probs for
Wednesday covering east-central PA including the mid/lower Susq
Valley, Coal Region into the Poconos.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models show t-storms accompanying the southeastward moving
front through CPA on Thursday. A wave of low pressure is now
progged to move along the boundary, which has trended slower
with its southward/southeastward progression. There also appears
to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form
of right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High rain
rates combined with ample deep layer moisture will continue to
support an excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across
the southern tier of CPA on Thursday/D4.

The slower southward movement may also delay north to south
clearing, and we can`t rule out a stray shower lingering early
Friday morning in southern tier/far southeast PA. That said,
much of the area will be firmly in the dry/cooler sector by
Friday afternoon.

Behind the front, a comfortably cooler and refreshing airmass
(much lower humidity) is poised to arrive just in time to begin
the month of August. Slightly below average daytime highs
70-80F and lows 50-60F are forecast along with no rainfall through
the first weekend of August. Dewpoints will plummet into the
40s and 50s bring an early taste of fall-like conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Valley fog and low clouds currently stationed over BFD/JST are
expected to diminish, with JST likely prevailing VFR before 12Z
as the low-level cloud deck continues to erode. The bulk of
model guidance does hold onto low visibilities at BFD through
~14Z Monday and given current observational trends, this
assessment seems to be reasonable for the 12Z TAF cycle. Once
JST/BFD lift out of restrictions this morning, VFR conditions
are virtually certain through at least 06Z Tuesday. Valley fog
potential after 06Z Tuesday will be less prevalent compared to
the previous evening, with model soundings outlining BFD as the
best chance for restrictions (going towards consensus given
similar set-up) with UNV a secondary candidate for visibility
restrictions based on recent HREF probabilities.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR.

Wed...Scattered PM TSRA.

Thu...SHRA/TSRA.

Fri... AM SHRA lingers over SE PA with restrictions possible,
trending drier with VFR conditions for the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It has been a very warm start to the [meteorological] summer
season which includes the months of June, July, and August. As
we approach the end of July, here are the June + July average
temperatures and "to-date" rankings for select sites in central
PA:

From June 1st through July 27th:

Harrisburg: 76.5F average temperature ranks 10th warmest

Williamsport: 73.7F average temperatures ranks tied 12th warmest

Altoona: 72.8F average temperature ranks 4th warmest

Bradford: 67.5F average temperature ranks 2nd warmest

State College: 72.8F average temperature ranks tied 7th warmest

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Latest Public Information Statement:

662
NOUS41 KCTP 260149
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-261349-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
949 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...MAXIMUM ASOS/AWOS HEAT INDEX REPORTS FROM 07/25/2025...

Location Heat Idx. Time/Date Provider
Lancaster Airport 110 F 0253 PM 07/25 ASOS
York Airport 106 F 0253 PM 07/25 ASOS
Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown 106 F 0255 PM 07/25 AWOS
Capitol City Airport 105 F 0156 PM 07/25 ASOS
Harrisburg Intl Airport 105 F 0256 PM 07/25 ASOS
Selinsgrove 103 F 0222 PM 07/25 ASOS
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 102 F 0215 PM 07/25 AWOS
Williamsport Airport 100 F 1254 PM 07/25 ASOS
Lock Haven Airport 100 F 1140 AM 07/25 AWOS
University Park Airport 98 F 1153 AM 07/25 AWOS
Bedford Airport 96 F 0415 PM 07/25 AWOS
Joe Zerbey Airport 95 F 0255 PM 07/25 AWOS
Altoona-Blair County Airport 94 F 0353 PM 07/25 AWOS
Clearfield Airport 93 F 0354 PM 07/25 ASOS
St Marys 89 F 0355 PM 07/25 AWOS
Johnstown Airport 86 F 0254 PM 07/25 ASOS
Somerset Airport 86 F 0315 PM 07/25 AWOS
Bradford Airport 84 F 0310 PM 07/25 ASOS
&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

NPB/JAB