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Latest PA Weather Summary:

419
AWUS81 KCTP 182103
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-191115-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
503 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Increasing clouds are expected overnight with a light southerly
breeze allowing for another mild night across the Keystone State.
Low temperatures overnight into Sunday morning will range from the
low-to-mid 40s across the higher elevations of eastern
Pennsylvania to the lower 60s along Lake Erie.

Dry conditions are expected through Sunday morning, with chances
for rain increasing early Sunday afternoon as a line of showers
traverses the area west-to-east, reaching eastern Pennsylvania
during the evening hours. Some thunderstorms embedded within the
line of showers could produce locally gusty winds across the
southern half of the Commonwealth. Breezy-to-gusty winds outside
of thunderstorms are expected to begin Sunday afternoon and will
continue through Monday with frequent gusts between 25 and 40 mph.

A brief reprieve from rainfall is expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning before chances for rain increase through the
middle of the week, especially across northern and western
Pennsylvania. Temperatures trend closer to seasonal averages for
the end of October on Tuesday and through the middle of the week.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

100
FXUS61 KCTP 190603
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
203 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Partly cloudy and mild late afternoon and evening in CPA
* The weekend ends wet/windy with gusty rain showers late Sunday
afternoon through early Sunday night
* Remaining breezy and trending cooler Monday with rain tapering
off through the day; staying showery and cool through Thursday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A comfortable and pleasant Fall/mid-October afternoon-evening
across central PA under partly cloudy to mainly clear skies.
Look for a gradual increase in mid and high clouds overnight
with similar to slightly milder lows compared to early Saturday
morning (mid 40s to mid 50s or +10-15 degrees above climo).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Amplifying 500mb trough will take on a negative tilt as it
lifts through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast on
Sunday. A deepening a surface low (sub-1000mb) associated with
the upper trough will track through Michigan into eastern Canada
toward James Bay. Strong southerly flow ahead of the low will
transport Gulf moisture northward and support a modestly moist
air mass into PA. A cold front trailing the seasonably strong
sfc low is expected to sweep eastward and serve as a focus for
one or more lines/bands of gusty rain showers (shallow
convective frontal rain bands) late Sunday afternoon through
the first part of Sunday night.

The setup is a common transition season low CAPE/high shear
environment with potential for strong to locally damaging wind
gusts 50-60 mph along the convective lines/frontal bands. Brief
periods of heavy rain are also possible, but given the
progressive forward motion, we feel that the flooding risk is
pretty low or on the nuisance side (drought conditions also a
contributing factor). Primary risk would be in urban or
residential areas particularly where leaves clog storm drains.
We coordinated with WPC/PBZ on a further reduction to the D2
MRGL risk ERO which now only includes the Laurel
Highlands/southwest PA.

SPC shifted the MRGL risk farther to the south and east with the
18/1730UTC update, removing the northern tier of CPA. Dewpoints
fcst to only reach the 50s and poor lapse rates will result in
very limited instability. Nevertheless, the convective
enhancement to the low-topped showers could aid downward
momentum transfer of 40-50kt llvl flow to produce isolated
50-60 mph gusts within the strongest linear segments.

A tight pressure gradient and 3-6mb fall/rise couplet indicates
gusty winds will continue behind the cold front as the llvl
flow turns to the west. We continued to adjust NBM wind gusts
higher to max out in the 30-40 mph range or below wind advisory
criteria for now. This will be the first "windy" period this
Fall with the potential to blow leaves and unsecured objects
(Halloween decorations) around.

Max temps top-out in the 65-75F range in most areas on Sunday
with some locations possibly approaching 80F in the LSV. Expect
a steady drop in temps across the western Alleghenies Sunday
night with low temps -10F colder vs. Saturday night.

Wrap-around rain enhanced by upslope flow gradually tapers off
and lifts to the northeast through the day on Monday. Breezy
and cooler to start next week with rain showers exiting the area
Monday night. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range are forecast
during the day on Monday and will amplify the 24hr cool
down/maxT change of -10 to -20 degrees vs. Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a brief dry period Monday night into Tuesday, the
remainder of next week looks unsettled and quite showery
(especially downwind of Lake Erie over NW PA and the western
Alleghenies) under the influence of large scale upper level
troughing and broad cyclonic flow. It`s conceivable that the the
first flakes of the season may be found over the higher
elevations along the Allegheny Front. I guess it`s that time of
year...

Coldest temps are forecast Wed-Thu with daytime highs below
late October climo. Minimum temps are projected to bottom
Thursday night with some frost risk in the LSV where the
growing season remains active. Expect a modest/seasonable warmup
heading into next weekend as high pressure slides off the Mid
Atlantic coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good VFR will continue into the first half of the day before
rain showers associated with a cold front approach and cross
the area. Winds will increase from the southeast and then the
southwest with gusts to 25kts as the frontal boundary
approaches.

Precipitation will move from west to east across the area
beginning in the early afternoon. Chances of heavier
precipitation (>70%) developing ahead of the frontal boundary,
but it is too far out to try to time any brief increase in
intensity as it may struggle to lower conditions to IFR in that
time frame.

Winds will remain gusty through the forecast period. An area of
low level wind shear as winds will increase appreciably around
2,000 ft AGL before precipitation begins.

Heavier rain will exit the area with a steadier light rain after
00Z. This will bring conditions down to IFR in most locations.

Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions possible w/ gusty winds. A line of SHRA is
expected.

Tue-Thur...Scattered showers possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski

Latest Public Information Statement:

833
NOUS41 KCTP 140620
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056-058-141030-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
220 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...Growing Season Ended For Much of Central Pennsylvania...

Based on a combination of the number of days past the median
first freeze date and observed freezing to sub-freezing
temperatures on October 10th, the growing season has ended for
the following counties:

McKean
Potter
Tioga
Sullivan
Lycoming
Warren
Elk
Cameron
Clearfield
Cambria
Somerset
Clinton
Centre
Blair
Bedford
Huntingdon
Fulton
Mifflin
Union
Snyder
Northumberland
Montour
Columbia
Schuylkill
Juniata
Perry

Frost and freeze headlines will no longer be issued for the
counties listed above until the start of the next growing season
in April and May 2026.

$$
MRS