Forecaster's
Discussion:

County-by-County
Forecast:

Daily Co-operative Station
Observation Summary:

Public Information
Statement:

All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:

OR -- CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO USE THE NWS MOBILE WEB APP

Latest PA Weather Summary:

664
AWUS81 KCTP 210938
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-212345-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
538 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

We`ll kick off the new workweek with variable amounts of clouds
and a light southeast breeze. A few, generally light and brief
showers will move across the Northwest Mountains of Pennsylvania
through about 9 AM. For the late morning and early afternoon hours
it will be mainly dry with some breaks of sunshine.

High temperatures this afternoon will vary from around 60 degrees
across the Poconos and Endless Mountains, North and East of
Williamsport, to the mid and upper 70s across the Southwest corner
of the state.

A cold front will approach from the Ohio Valley this evening
accompanied and preceded by a few additional rounds of showers.

Rainfall amounts will be mainly less than 0.20 of an inch
across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley, while the
Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains receive between 0.25
and 0.50 of an inch of rainfall today through early tonight.

The cold front will push east of Pennsylvania shortly before
daybreak Tuesday followed by a drier and cooler northwest flow.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for the middle of the week
with precipitation chances increasing on Friday and into the
morning hours on Saturday. Temperatures for mid-week will trend
above average before returning closer to average for the weekend.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

406
FXUS61 KCTP 211136
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
736 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A low pressure area will lift well to the Northwest of the
region and across the Upper Great Lakes today
* A cold front moves east across the state tonight
* Dry period with seasonable temperatures during mid-week
* Showers return Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Variable amounts of strato cu and alto cu were present across
the region early today as a result of near sfc Serly flow off
the Western Atlantic, and SSWrly flow from the 850 mb level up.

A small llvl jetlet on the eastern side of a much broader LLJ
max will move NE across the NW Mtns of PA through about 14Z,
which will provide enough focused isent lift over an approaching
warm front to bring some fast moving, small showers.

The CWA will then see a several to 6 hour period of dry
conditions with some breaks in the cloud cover, before a cold
front moves through later this evening and overnight preceded
and accompanied by a few more showers and maybe a TSRA
(primarily over the Western Mtns - based on timing/available
instability of a few to several hundred J/KG of MU CAPE.

Rainfall amounts (accounting for the showers this morning and
those later today/tonight) will be mainly less than 0.20 of an
inch across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley, while
the Laurel Highlands and Northwest Mountains receive between
0.25 and 0.50 of an inch of rainfall today through early
tonight.

High temps today will range from around 70F across the Laurel
Highlands to about 60F across the Western Poconos and Endless
Mtns to the North and East of KIPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The cold front pushes into the NW zones of the CWA this evening
and should be through the rest of the CWA by 09Z Tuesday. The
lack of instability and CAPE in the early night when it is
moving through will mean that the showers will remain meager and
sct along the front. Min temps will be mild, esp in the SE due
to late passage of cold front. Cold air also not terribly cold,
but dry. 8H temps by morning should be near 0C NW but still
around 10C SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thanks to long-wave ridging overhead, a prolonged stretch of
days with above average temperatures and no precipitation are
likely starting Tuesday night. 850 temps in the double digits
above zero will mean mild and even warm temps for most of the
period across central PA. The next weather system moves through
late in the period on Friday and Friday night. Centralized low
pressure over central Quebec will see a cold front draped
across southern Canada and across the Great Lakes region. This
cold front will extend well into the Ohio and Mississippi
valleys. The forcing and moisture along this front will bring a
chance for rain and perhaps some storms.

Highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s will be
trend. Mins should stay above freezing in all of Central PA
thru the period, with many nights only dipping into the m50s in
the S. Portions of northern PA who have not quite seen
grass/flowers takeoff yet should see a burst of green over the
next week or two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for the next 6-9 hours followed by a
trend toward MVFR. Showers with VCTS will again likely impact
KBFD 13-14UTC. Marginal LLWS will dissipate at KBFD by 16Z.
Increasing low level moisture ahead of a warm front will bring
low VFR cigs at most TAF sites during the daytime hours.

A cold front advancing into western PA later this evening will
bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm to KBFD/KJST. We
maintained continuity from the previous cycle with PROB30s to
account for potential short duration thunderstorm impacts at
these terminals. Very little to no instability is expected
downwind of the Allegheny Mtns, so we kept dominant precip type
as plain rain showers across the central and eastern TAF sites
23-05UTC. Expect wind shift from 120-180 degrees to 240-280
degrees across the western TAF sites behind the cold front after
22/0000UTC. Post frontal MVFR cigs are probable >60% at KBFD
and KJST with higher probs and confidence for MVFR and perhaps
even IFR cigs over portions of the east-central airspace in the
00-06Z time frame where llvl moisture briefly pools and flow
remains backed along the warm front.

Outlook...

Tue...Early AM low cigs NW, then VFR as clouds lift/dissipate.

Wed-Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Showers developing during the afternoon with restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Dangelo
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Banghoff/Bowen
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Latest Public Information Statement:

632
NOUS41 KCTP 211216
PNSCTP
PAZ033-211630-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
816 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...NWS Damage Survey for 04/19/25 Addison and Elk Lick Townships Straight-Line Wind Damage...

..Addison and Elk Lick Townships Straight-Line Wind Damage...

Rating: TSTM/Wind
Estimated Peak Wind: 95 mph
Path Length /statute/: 13.5 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 2

Start Date: 04/19/2025
Start Time: 08:48 PM EDT
Start Location: Addison / Somerset County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 39.7435 / -79.3353

End Date: 04/19/2025
End Time: 08:59 PM EDT
End Location: 1 W Salisbury / Somerset County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 39.7542 / -79.1034

Survey Summary:
The National Weather Service in State College has confirmed
straight-line wind damage across southern Somerset County that
occurred during the late evening hours of Saturday, April 19,
2025. Maximum winds are estimated at 95 mph.

A thunderstorm began moving into southwestern Somerset County,
causing extensive tree damage in Addison and Elk Lick Townships.
Extensive damage was observed in Addison, with a tree falling onto
a residence with no injuries reported. Multiple trees were also
knocked down across roadways in Addison which also knocked out
power for much of the town. Two people were injured in Addison
when an ATV collided with a downed tree. Extensive damage was also
observed further east in Salisbury, with a silo collapsing into a
barn that also caused the barn to collapse.

The National Weather Service in State College would like to thank
Somerset County DES and their damage assessment team for
gathering the data necessary for completing this survey.


&&

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$