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Latest PA Weather Summary:

265
AWUS81 KCTP 062123
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-071130-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
523 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft will drift well east of the
Mid Atlantic Coast overnight. The increasing south to
southwesterly low to mid level flow ahead of a cold front will
increase clouds late tonight, leading to much milder temperatures
than recent nights.

A few showers could drift northeast across the Western half of
the state well after midnight tonight, but rainfall amounts
through 8 AM Tuesday will be relatively light. Several periods of
light to moderately heavy showers will be focused Tuesday
afternoon and night as the front crosses the Commonwealth. Storm
total rainfall amounts by late Wednesday morning will be mainly
between one half and three quarters of an inch, but a few spots
could see up to one inch of rain over an approximate 24 hour
period.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s to low 60s and high temperatures
Tuesday will vary from the upper 60s to low 70s across the
Northwest half of the state, to the upper 70s and low 80s in the
Southeast.

Cooler and drier conditions will push into the state for Wednesday
with a breeze out of the north-northwest at around 10 mph and
gusts into the mid and upper teens. High temperatures Wednesday
afternoon will be a few degrees below normal, ranging from the
upper 50s over the higher terrain of the north and west to the mid
and upper 60s throughout much of Central and Southern
Pennsylvania.

Dry weather with seasonal temperatures will occur Thursday
through Saturday.

$$

Lambert

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

058
FXUS61 KCTP 070158
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
958 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Showery weather will cross the Commonwealth later tonight
through early Wed morning, associated with an incoming cold
front
* Breezy and Chilly for Wednesday morning as the rain ends
* Drier and much cooler weather for Wednesday afternoon through
Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Patchy mid and high clouds were drifting across the region this
evening. Clouds will increase/thicken up from the SW late
tonight/early Tuesday as the nose of a southern southwesterly LLJ
segment helps to advect a plume of tropical moisture (with
Central GOAM origin) NE up the Ohio River Valley.

Temps ranging from the mid 60s across the NW Mtns to the low
70s (SE) will fall another 8-10 deg F then flatten out to a
large extent aft 07Z.

Latest hi res guidance shows some spotty light showers drifting
across NW half of the CWA after 07Z with more numerous showers
or even steady light rain entering the NW and WCentral Mtns of
the state around 11-12Z Tuesday.

Previous Disc...

Tongue of best moisture dosen`t arrive in the NW until morning.
But, there is a little lift aloft in the late night and early
morning hours in the W. So, many people should get wet over the
wrn mtns around sunrise. Amounts will be very minor. PoPs will
be OK in the 30s around JST-UNV line before sunrise, and 60+ for
the NW mtns. Stability is rather high, so we will keep TSRA out
of the forecast for the overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the day SE of AOO-UNV-IPT will be fair and very warm
(again). Clouds will get thicker in the aftn. Up in the NW
mtns, early rain will take a short break before additional
forcing arrives. The SHRA don`t look especially heavy, and Storm
total QPF there is <1.00". Continued moisture influx in advance
of the cold front will bring PWAT up to 1.5-1.75". Soundings
are unidirectional in the NW half of the CWA, and CAPE close to
nil. However, some hints of instability exist in the aftn and
early evening. So, a slgt mention of TSRA is OK there. Farther
SE, the NAM is rather optimistic with the QPF/TSRA than the GFS.
GEFS guidance has a very low chc of 1" QPF for much of the
area. If there will be any decent instability over the CWA it
would be in the SE where some heating (dependent on cloud
cover/thickness) could bring -2 LIs depending on your model of
choice. In general, the front should be into the central mtns by
midnight, and pushing past LNS around 12Z. Tried to put some
timing in the gridded PoPs. The cloud cover in the NW half of
the area has a strong possibility to keep temps below NBM
guidance. Have nudged the maxes down there by 1-3F. Kept TSRA
chcs where the NBM has them as instability looks limited. Wind
gets gusty after FROPA over the Allegheny Plateau. Good dry
advection will bring the dewpoints down into the L40s at BFD by
sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
For the latter part of the work week (Wednesday through Friday),
there is reasonably high confidence that a surface cold frontal
passage early Wednesday will be progressive in nature, pushed on
by a kicker northern stream short-wave trough in the upper
levels of the atmosphere. This should limit clouds and any
lingering showers to early in the day Wednesday, with
improving/clearing conditions by afternoon.

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, conditions look rain-
free, given the likely advance of a very dry air mass across the
eastern U.S. Especially by Thursday, minimum RH within this type
of air mass should efficiently drop as low as 25-35%, perhaps
even locally lower. At this early juncture, surface winds should
be dropping off by Thursday, owing to the approach of a surface
ridge axis, but this timing will have to be watched for fire
weather concerns.

Fairly strong low-level cold advection is likely later Wednesday
into Thursday under a deep NW flow aloft over PA. This,
combined with clear skies and slackening winds in the overnight
hours will provide an ideal setup for radiational cooling.
Widespread frost is expected across much of Central PA, with the
exception of the southeast. Confidence in temperatures falling
below freezing across the northern tier continues to increase
and a Freeze Watch may be needed at some point. Temperatures may
be a degree or two colder on Thursday night as the surface high
remains centered over the northeastern United States.

By next weekend, the large-scale flow at least temporarily is
progged to amplify, with a building upper ridge axis over the
central CONUS and south-central Canada, and the potential for a
trough axis along the east coast. Clustering analyses with the
mid-level height fields show a piece of short-wave energy
topping the aforementioned and upstream upper ridge as holding
the key. One solution keeps this wave more progressive over
eastern Canada, with less troughing along the east coast and
drier weather for PA, while an alternate scenario digs this
same wave down into the Mid-Atlantic, with the potential for a
closed low along the coast and at least somewhat higher rain
chances for parts of the Commonwealth. Given relatively equal
model membership between these two scenarios, each are about
equally likely from this early vantage point, and thus we have
low chances (20-30%) for showers indicated.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Nice fall evening outside with warm temperatures and just a
few mid level clouds. For later tonight, there could be a
few showers across the far west, and lower conditions there.

Across the far east, some fog and lower CIGS by morning, given
return flow of higher moisture.

Left showers out of the central and eastern areas of central
PA for Tuesday, as the cold front is well west of the area until
late in the day. Timing of the front would support bulk of the
showers and perhaps an isolated storm with lower conditions is
after 00Z Wed.

Earlier discussion below.

VFR now, with the challenge mainly coming after the end of the
18Z TAF pkg (beyond 24hrs). A cold front will be dropping down
from the NW tonight and Tuesday, crossing Central PA on Tuesday
night. Showers will break out ahead of the front as moisture
advects in from the OH Valley. Clouds will invade from the W
through the night, and -SHRA will move into the wrn mtns
(BFD/JST/AOO/UNV) around or right before dawn. But, it looks
like a brief swing of warm advective rain, and it ends in only
an hour or two. This batch of rain could make IPT wet after
sunrise, but LNS and MDT will remain dry. BFD will have only a
short break before more SHRA and poss a TSRA move in for the
aftn. Most of the morning hours will be fair and cloudy over
the balance of the air space. SHRA and poss TSRA (20% chc - not
worth even a PROB30 at this point) will arrive in the aftn over
the wrn mtns, and become widespread as they spread to the west.
The next 24 hrs will be tough to pin down when these multiple
SHRA and poss TSRA will impact each specific airfield. The front
should be about halfway through PA at midnight, and should
clear LNS by 12Z (Wed).

Outlook...

Thu...AM fog then VFR.

Fri-Sat...AM fog, otherwise clear with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin

Latest Public Information Statement:

301
NOUS41 KCTP 081505
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-090305-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...

Location Temp Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Bedford County...
Claysburg 35 F 0726 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bedford Airport 36 F 0655 AM 09/08 AWOS
Clearville 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Saxton 37 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Blair County...
Altoona-Blair County Airport 35 F 0753 AM 09/08 AWOS
WILLIAMSBURG 36 F 0707 AM 09/08 CWOP
Duncansville 38 F 0655 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Altoona 38 F 0745 AM 09/08 CWOP
4 NNE Williamsburg 38 F 0745 AM 09/08 AWS
Williamsburg 39 F 0645 AM 09/08 HADS
Penn State Altoona 39 F 0712 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Blair Helibase 39 F 0716 AM 09/08 RAWS
2 NNW Altoona 39 F 0720 AM 09/08 AWS
Altoona 39 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Hollidaysburg 40 F 0705 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Williamsburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
ALTOONA 40 F 0726 AM 09/08 CWOP
1 E Bellwood 40 F 0805 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Cambria County...
MINERAL POINT 35 F 0539 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ebensburg 39 F 0731 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Cameron County...
Doll Hill 38 F 0650 AM 09/08 RAWS
Emporium 39 F 0755 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Centre County...
South Philipsburg 32 F 0722 AM 09/08 CWOP
PORT MATILDA 32 F 0725 AM 09/08 CWOP
Spring Mills 33 F 0624 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bellefonte 35 F 0630 AM 09/08 CWOP
Rock Springs 35 F 0707 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Centre Hall 35 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Zion 36 F 0638 AM 09/08 CWOP
Pennsylvania Furnace 36 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
2 SW State College 36 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
PSU UPark PEMN 36 F 0652 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Stormstown 36 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP
Snow Shoe 36 F 0710 AM 09/08 PADOT
State College 38 F 0705 AM 09/08 CWOP
State College 38 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
1 NE Port Matilda 38 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
State College 39 F 0718 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bald Eagle State Park 40 F 0322 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
3 NNW Milesburg 40 F 0640 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Clearfield County...
Clearfield Airport 34 F 0754 AM 09/08 ASOS
2 ENE Clearfield 36 F 0555 AM 09/08 PADOT
Grampian 36 F 0600 AM 09/08 COOP
Dubois 36 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
Psu Dubois 36 F 0722 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
6 NNE Philipsburg 37 F 0650 AM 09/08 PADOT
Clearfield 39 F 0815 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Kennedy Preserve 40 F 0108 AM 09/08 RAWS
1 SSE S.b. Elliot State Park 40 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Clinton County...
Carroll 37 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
Lock Haven 40 F 0655 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Dauphin County...
Halifax 40 F 0725 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Elk County...
Kersey 31 F 0720 AM 09/08 CWOP
Saint Marys 33 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ridgway 34 F 0740 AM 09/08 AWS
Ridgway 36 F 0700 AM 09/08 COOP
St Marys 37 F 0715 AM 09/08 AWOS
Saint Marys 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Franklin County...
Waynesboro 39 F 0630 AM 09/08 CWOP
Willow Hill 39 F 0714 AM 09/08 AWS
Greencastle 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP
Chambersburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Fulton County...
Forney Trail 34 F 0649 AM 09/08 RAWS
1 NNW Hancock 40 F 0709 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Huntingdon County...
Petersburg 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Huntingdon 38 F 0702 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Mapleton 39 F 0607 AM 09/08 CWOP
Shavers Creek WxSTEM 39 F 0750 AM 09/08 MESOWEST

...Juniata County...
Lemont 38 F 0735 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 38 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP

...McKean County...
Smethport 32 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Kinzua Bridge State Park 34 F 0652 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Bradford Airport 34 F 0753 AM 09/08 ASOS
Smethport 34 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Port Allegany 36 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP
2 WSW Mount Jewett 38 F 0710 AM 09/08 PADOT
Bradford 5SW 39 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP

...Mifflin County...
2 SSW Alfarata 39 F 0705 AM 09/08 AWS
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 AWOS
Chestnut Springs 40 F 0651 AM 09/08 RAWS
LEWISTOWN 40 F 0656 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Northumberland County...
2.6 N Mount Carmel 40 F 0649 AM 09/08 HADS
Knoebels Grove 40 F 0735 AM 09/08 AWS

...Perry County...
1 SW Loysville 37 F 0637 AM 09/08 AWS
Big Knob 40 F 0708 AM 09/08 RAWS
Elliottsburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Potter County...
Ulysses 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
3 W Denton Hill State Park 38 F 0305 AM 09/08 PADOT
Cherry Springs State Park 39 F 0632 AM 09/08 MESOWEST

...Schuylkill County...
Valley View 38 F 0657 AM 09/08 CWOP
Nuremberg 38 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Frackville 40 F 0648 AM 09/08 CWOP
POTTSVILLE 40 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 40 F 0753 AM 09/08 ASOS

...Somerset County...
CENTRAL CITY 32 F 0730 AM 09/08 CWOP
ROCKWOOD 33 F 0703 AM 09/08 CWOP
HOLLSOPPLE 35 F 0234 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ogletown 35 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
Somerset Airport 36 F 0650 AM 09/08 AWOS
SOMERSET 36 F 0724 AM 09/08 CWOP
Somerset 36 F 0735 AM 09/08 CWOP
2 NNE Garrett 37 F 0705 AM 09/08 PADOT
Meyersdale 37 F 0750 AM 09/08 PADOT
HOLLSOPLE 38 F 0305 AM 09/08 CWOP
Jerome 38 F 0635 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Addison Township 38 F 0722 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
2 NW Indian Lake 39 F 0705 AM 09/08 AWS
Flight 93 Memorial Site 40 F 0512 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Somerset 40 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP

...Sullivan County...
LOPEZ 32 F 0710 AM 09/08 CWOP
3 NE Laporte 36 F 0740 AM 09/08 PADOT
DUSHORE 38 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
Dushore 38 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
Hillsgrove 38 F 0645 AM 09/08 DAVIS
3.4 E Muncy Valley 40 F 0730 AM 09/08 HADS

...Tioga County...
Wellsboro 35 F 0735 AM 09/08 CWOP
Old Mountain 36 F 0616 AM 09/08 RAWS
Tioga 2 36 F 0712 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Westfield 38 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
1.3 NE Leonard Harrison SP 38 F 0700 AM 09/08 COOP
Wellsboro 38 F 0730 AM 09/08 CWOP
Tioga 39 F 0422 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
0.8 W Tioga 40 F 0800 AM 09/08 HADS

...Union County...
LEWISBURG 39 F 0702 AM 09/08 CWOP
Lewisburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Warren County...
Grand Valley 35 F 0530 AM 09/08 CWOP
Kinzua 38 F 0622 AM 09/08 RAWS
Warren 39 F 0642 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Tidioute 40 F 0140 AM 09/08 AWS
&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$