Latest PA Weather Summary:
264
AWUS81 KCTP 042141
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-051145-
Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
541 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
A weak cold front will push southeastward across the commonwealth
this evening, preceded by isolated rain showers in the southeast
counties of the state this evening.
Following the frontal passage, lows tonight will range from the
mid 40s across northwestern Pennsylvania to around 56 degrees in
the city of Philadelphia.
High pressure will build over the area on Saturday, bringing
abundant sunshine after early morning patchy fog burns off in the
northern counties of the state. Expect comfortable temperatures
to begin the first weekend of October. Highs will range from the
mid 60s across the northern mountains to the upper 70s in the
immediate Philadelphia area.
Most of Sunday will be dry, though clouds will be on the increase
Sunday afternoon and a southerly breeze will develop. Expect
rainshowers to cross the state Sunday evening into Monday morning.
$$
Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
917
FXUS61 KCTP 050024
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
824 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* Stray rain shower possible in the far southeastern and
northern portions of central PA into tonight
* Areas of fog fade to pleasant sunshine to start to the first
weekend of October
* Isolated strong thunderstorms possible Sunday PM across parts
of western PA; then drying out and cooling down next week
with frost risk
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough translating eastward from the lower Great
Lakes into upstate NY is triggering a couple of light/passing
showers across the northern tier this evening. The best forcing
remains north of the PA/NY border so the showers will remain
fairly isolated. QPF with any shower activity will be <0.10
inch.
Stratus across the Lower Susquehanna Valley covers a smaller
area this evening than it did earlier today, but boundary layer
stabilization and nocturnal cooling should allow for expansion
of the cloud deck once again. Once the trough axis passes east
of the area, a drier northerly flow will develop which should
cause these clouds to dissipate during the morning. This drier
airmass should also prevent fog from being as widespread as it
has been over the past few days, though model RH profiles do
suggest that at least patchy fog will develop across the
northern valleys.
High pressure builds in to the region tomorrow and will provide
mainly sunny skies. Ensemble mean 850mb temps in the 7-9C range
support highs ranging from the low to mid 60s over the N Mtns,
to the mid 70s in the Lower Susq Valley. We have continued to
undercut NBM dewpoints based on model soundings, which show very
dry air above a weak inversion.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair and seasonable weather appears likely into the first half
of Sunday before rain chances begin to increase during the
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Models still show
slight timing differences with the front, but showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely during the late afternoon and
evening. Instability looks to be fairly limited ahead of the
front, with most guidance showing ~500 J/kg of SBCAPE, but with
35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, some organization of storms
could be possible across the western half of Central PA. SPC has
placed this region in marginal risk of severe weather with
isolated damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary hazards.
Rain will quickly come to an end behind the cold front and skies
quickly clear out for most of the area as high pressure builds
in. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s
across the north and west, to the mid 50s in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing clouds ahead of the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and night as a cold
front approaches central Pennsylvania. The best precip chances
will begin by mid afternoon across the northwest mountains,
spreading east through the Commonwealth during the later afternoon
and evening. Instability looks strongest late Sunday afternoon
and early evening, so have increased to chance wording of
lightning during that timeframe. Lightning chances decrease
overnight with showers also coming to an end Monday morning as
the upper level trough lifts to our east.
Enhanced northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold front will
usher in a drier airmass, thus keeping Monday mostly dry.
Cyclonic flow and neutral to falling upper level heights could
allow for a shower in the Alleghenies, but trends have been for
drier air to filter in quicker. High pressure builds into
central PA Monday and holds some influence through much of the
week, but will have to monitor the potential for a couple
reinforcing fronts through midweek as an upper low near southern
Hudson Bay rotates a couple of lobes of energy through the Great
Lakes and toward PA. Questionable as to the degree of moisture
return and associated rain chances with these at this time.
A little more uncertainty now exists in regard to frost for next
week, beginning Tuesday night. Given the aforementioned frontal
boundaries and upper troughiness keeping more cloud cover across
northern PA, radiational cooling doesn`t now look as favorable.
However, still keeping mention in the forecast Tuesday night on
at this point until the sensible weather becomes a bit more
clear cut.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering MVFR ceilings will remain across the Lower
Susquehanna Valley (MDT/LNS) over the next couple of hours
before further deterioration is progged by the bulk of model
guidance. At this time, model guidance hones in on the 04-06Z
timeframe for some thickening of the low-level cloud deck
towards IFR/LIFR thresholds. There is moderate confidence
(~50-60%) in these conditions resolving towards 04Z Saturday
with higher confidence on these restrictions coming to fruition
after 06Z. Ceilings will continue to remain low at MDT/LNS
through 10-12Z Saturday with enhanced low-level moisture in RAP
model soundings that is also reflected with HREF probabilities
of IFR and below conditions in this timeframe. Elsewhere, some
concern for patchy valley fog at BFD close to sunrise (10-12Z
Saturday) will bring some potential for sub-VFR flight
conditions; however, model guidance remains fairly split and
given low-level drier air compared to RAP model soundings, have
decided to keep mentions at VCFG at this time with low (~20%)
confidence at fog impacts at the airfield.
Any fog formation (N PA) and low-level clouds (SE PA) are
expected to quickly lift after 12Z with VFR conditions as high
pressure settles into the area. There is high (> 90%) confidence
in VFR conditions after 13Z Saturday through the end of the TAF
period.
Outlook...
Sun PM-Mon...Showers with CFROPA move west-to-east; isolated
strong t-storm possible over the western 1/2 of the airspace.
Tue-Wed...VFR, no sig wx.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Total precipitation for the month of September was 1.11 inches
at Williamsport (-3.65" below average) which ranks as the 11th
driest on record.
The average temperature for the month of September was 63.1
degrees at Bradford (+4.2F above average) which ranks as the
warmest September on record.
Harrisburg (MDT) consecutive days streak of measurable rain
ends at 9 with only a trace recorded yesterday 10/2. This ties
the record for longest such stretch set from April 7-15, 1893
and matched May 15-23, 1893 and July 28-August 5, 1971.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Bauco
LONG TERM...Guseman/NPB/Bowen
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff
Latest Public Information Statement:
648
NOUS41 KCTP 221715
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-230515-
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
115 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024
...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
...Pennsylvania...
...Adams County...
New Oxford 1.3 SSE 2.65 in 0730 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
1 SE New Oxford 2.56 in 0200 AM 09/22 Trained Spotter
New Oxford 0.8 SE 2.56 in 0730 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
HANOVER 2.49 in 1228 PM 09/22 CWOP
Abbottstown 2.0 N 1.85 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Abbottstown 2.4 N 1.82 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Springs 2.5 N 1.63 in 0703 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
...Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport 1.04 in 1154 AM 09/22 ASOS
...Cumberland County...
Carlisle 7.2 SSW 2.03 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS 1.30 in 1221 PM 09/22 CWOP
...Dauphin County...
1 NW Rutherford Heights 3.61 in 0100 AM 09/22 Public
1 SW Rutherford Heights 2.44 in 0100 AM 09/22 Public
Middletown 2.9 NW 2.31 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Harrisburg Intl Airport 2.20 in 1225 PM 09/22 ASOS
Middletown 0.9 N 1.96 in 0811 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
2 NW Progress 1.47 in 1220 PM 09/22 AWS
Manda Gap 1.45 in 1218 PM 09/22 RAWS
Hummelstown 1.41 in 1225 PM 09/22 CWOP
Harrisburg 1.40 in 1220 PM 09/22 CWOP
1 WNW Skyline View 1.16 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
HUMMELSTOWN 1.09 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Hummelstown 0.6 WNW 1.06 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Harrisburg 1.02 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Linglestown 0.7 NNE 1.01 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
...Lebanon County...
Indiantown Run 1.16 in 1213 PM 09/22 RAWS
Lebanon 4.8 N 1.08 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
...Lycoming County...
Slate Run 2.30 in 1200 PM 09/22 COOP
WILLIAMSPORT 1.59 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
...Northumberland County...
1 WSW Northumberland 4.46 in 1045 PM 09/21 Public
Hawi 2.31 in 1215 PM 09/22 CWOP
0.6 SW Sunbury 2.10 in 0930 AM 09/22 COOP
...Perry County...
Duncannon 1.01 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
...Potter County...
4 NE Denton Hill State Park 2.00 in 0715 PM 09/21 Trained Spotter
Germania 1.21 in 1221 PM 09/22 CWOP
...Schuylkill County...
Valley View 0.5 W 1.00 in 0600 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
...Snyder County...
Port Trevorton 1.80 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Selinsgrove 2.6 WNW 1.57 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Selinsgrove 1.52 in 1153 AM 09/22 ASOS
...Sullivan County...
LOPEZ 1.33 in 1226 PM 09/22 CWOP
...Union County...
Lewisburg 2.52 in 0600 AM 09/22 COOP
LEWISBURG 1.66 in 1229 PM 09/22 CWOP
1.1 NW Milton 1.29 in 1130 AM 09/22 HADS
LEWISBURG 1.07 in 1226 PM 09/22 CWOP
...York County...
Valley Green 1.62 in 0635 AM 09/22 Public
Valley Green 0.8 ENE 1.62 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Valley Green 1.47 in 1230 PM 09/22 AWS
East Berlin 3.4 ESE 1.46 in 0600 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Airport 1.44 in 1153 AM 09/22 ASOS
2 E Codorus 1.44 in 1220 PM 09/22 AWS
Mount Wolf 1.0 SE 1.39 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Haven 2.3 WNW 1.37 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York 1.35 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Hanover 1.3 SSE 1.25 in 0528 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
THOMASVILLE 1.22 in 1220 PM 09/22 CWOP
Mount Wolf 1.21 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
York 1.19 in 1215 PM 09/22 CWOP
York 3.4 NE 1.00 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
&&
**METADATA**
:9/22/2024,0703 AM, PA, Adams, York Springs 2.5 N, , , 40.0447, -77.1231, RAIN_24, 1.63, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Adams, Abbottstown 2.4 N, , , 39.9192, -76.9894, RAIN_24, 1.82, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Adams, Abbottstown 2.0 N, , , 39.9131, -76.9895, RAIN_24, 1.85, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1228 PM, PA, Adams, HANOVER, , , 39.7913, -77.0437, RAIN_24, 2.49, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0200 AM, PA, Adams, 1 SE New Oxford, , , 39.854014554539, -77.04503805721, RAIN_24, 2.56, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0730 AM, PA, Adams, New Oxford 0.8 SE, , , 39.854, -77.046, RAIN_24, 2.56, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0730 AM, PA, Adams, New Oxford 1.3 SSE, , , 39.8463, -77.0437, RAIN_24, 2.65, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1154 AM, PA, Cambria, Johnstown Airport, , , 40.3167, -78.8333, RAIN_24, 1.04, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1221 PM, PA, Cumberland, MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS, , , 40.1185, -77.193, RAIN_24, 1.3, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Cumberland, Carlisle 7.2 SSW, , , 40.1125, -77.2774, RAIN_24, 2.03, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, Linglestown 0.7 NNE, , , 40.3523, -76.7894, RAIN_24, 1.01, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg, , , 40.3255, -76.8838, RAIN_24, 1.02, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, Hummelstown 0.6 WNW, , , 40.2711, -76.7233, RAIN_24, 1.06, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Dauphin, HUMMELSTOWN, , , 40.307, -76.7038, RAIN_24, 1.09, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 WNW Skyline View, , , 40.3468, -76.7435, RAIN_24, 1.16, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg, , , 40.3315, -76.7282, RAIN_24, 1.4, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, Hummelstown, , , 40.3185, -76.6908, RAIN_24, 1.41, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1218 PM, PA, Dauphin, Manda Gap, , , 40.411, -76.711, RAIN_24, 1.45, Inch, RAWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, Dauphin, 2 NW Progress, , , 40.3131, -76.8636, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, 2 NW Progress, , , 40.3131, -76.8636, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0811 AM, PA, Dauphin, Middletown 0.9 N, , , 40.2132, -76.7316, RAIN_24, 1.96, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg Intl Airport, , , 40.2, -76.7667, RAIN_24, 2.2, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Dauphin, Middletown 2.9 NW, , , 40.2349, -76.7617, RAIN_24, 2.31, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0100 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 SW Rutherford Heights, , , 40.251229544310185, -76.78387923185517, RAIN_24, 2.44, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0100 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 NW Rutherford Heights, , , 40.28, -76.78, RAIN_24, 3.61, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Lebanon, Lebanon 4.8 N, , , 40.4099, -76.4158, RAIN_24, 1.08, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1213 PM, PA, Lebanon, Indiantown Run, , , 40.459, -76.617, RAIN_24, 1.16, Inch, RAWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Lycoming, WILLIAMSPORT, , , 41.244, -77.034, RAIN_24, 1.59, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1200 PM, PA, Lycoming, Slate Run , , , 41.4686, -77.5681, RAIN_24, 2.3, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0930 AM, PA, Northumberland, 0.6 SW Sunbury, , , 40.8544, -76.7925, RAIN_24, 2.1, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1215 PM, PA, Northumberland, Hawi, , , 40.8972, -76.7948, RAIN_24, 2.31, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/21/2024,1045 PM, PA, Northumberland, 1 WSW Northumberland, , , 40.8936, -76.8062, RAIN, 4.46, Inch, Public, Storm total rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Perry, Duncannon, , , 40.4745, -76.9665, RAIN_24, 1.01, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1221 PM, PA, Potter, Germania, , , 41.6578, -77.6733, RAIN_24, 1.21, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/21/2024,0715 PM, PA, Potter, 4 NE Denton Hill State Park, , , 41.8051, -77.7755, RAIN, 2, Inch, Trained Spotter, Storm total rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, Schuylkill, Valley View 0.5 W, , , 40.6437, -76.5485, RAIN_24, 1, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1153 AM, PA, Snyder, Selinsgrove, , , 40.8167, -76.8667, RAIN_24, 1.52, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Snyder, Selinsgrove 2.6 WNW, , , 40.8173, -76.9097, RAIN_24, 1.57, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Snyder, Port Trevorton, , , 40.6763, -76.9013, RAIN_24, 1.8, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1226 PM, PA, Sullivan, LOPEZ, , , 41.457, -76.3387, RAIN_24, 1.33, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1226 PM, PA, Union, LEWISBURG, , , 40.9665, -76.9152, RAIN_24, 1.07, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1130 AM, PA, Union, 1.1 NW Milton, , , 41.0186, -76.8653, RAIN_24, 1.29, Inch, HADS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1229 PM, PA, Union, LEWISBURG, , , 40.962, -76.8912, RAIN_24, 1.66, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, Union, Lewisburg, , , 40.9486, -76.8783, RAIN_24, 2.52, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, York 3.4 NE, , , 39.995, -76.6807, RAIN_24, 1, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1215 PM, PA, York, York, , , 39.9895, -76.6525, RAIN_24, 1.19, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, Mount Wolf, , , 40.06, -76.7283, RAIN_24, 1.21, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, York, THOMASVILLE, , , 39.9132, -76.9233, RAIN_24, 1.22, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0528 AM, PA, York, Hanover 1.3 SSE, , , 39.7954, -76.9713, RAIN_24, 1.25, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, York, , , 40.027, -76.6242, RAIN_24, 1.35, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, York, York Haven 2.3 WNW, , , 40.1184, -76.7581, RAIN_24, 1.37, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, Mount Wolf 1.0 SE, , , 40.0488, -76.6948, RAIN_24, 1.39, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1153 AM, PA, York, York Airport, , , 39.9167, -76.8833, RAIN_24, 1.44, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, York, 2 E Codorus, , , 39.8019, -76.775, RAIN_24, 1.44, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, York, East Berlin 3.4 ESE, , , 39.9132, -76.9233, RAIN_24, 1.46, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, Valley Green, , , 40.1511, -76.7955, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0635 AM, PA, York, Valley Green, , , 40.1572, -76.793, RAIN_24, 1.62, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, Valley Green 0.8 ENE, , , 40.1612, -76.7791, RAIN_24, 1.62, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$
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