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Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall Potential for the Plains; Coastal Low Across the mid-Atlantic

An upper trough and frontal boundary will focus showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Plains through early Monday; A few severe thunderstorms along with heavy rainfall are expected. Meanwhile, low pressure off the Southeast Coast will bring inclement weather across the mid-Atlantic coast through Monday. This system is forecast to meander off the coast then track inland early this week. Read More >

Images/Maps of the forecast elements (temperature, wind, etc.) are available via this link.

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Forecast:

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Observation Summary:

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Latest PA Weather Summary:


696
AWUS81 KCTP 152043
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-161045-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
443 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

High pressure will keep mainly dry weather across the keystone
state this week. Some showers will be possible across the
southeast portion of the state Tuesday into Wednesday night.

The next chance of widespread showers will be late in the
upcoming weekend.

Overall high temperatures the next several days will be in the in
the 70s to low 80s. Lows will range from the 40s and 50s across
the mountains to the lower 60s across the southeast. The coolest
day will be Wednesday, and the warmest day will be Friday.

The ongoing dry spell and 30 to 60 day rainfall deficit will
continue across most of Pennsylvania during the last week of
astronomical summer. Rainfall across the southeast corner of the
Keystone state will be less an inch by the time the rain tapers
off late Wednesday.

The northwest half of Pennsylvania is projected to stay dry with
no relief in the abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

$$

Martin


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


029
FXUS61 KCTP 160517
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
117 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cloud coverage gradually increases overnight with valley fog
potential across the northern tier tonight.
* Light rain possible across southeastern Pennsylvania Tuesday
through Wednesday.
* Dry conditions prevail on Thursday and through the first half
of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High clouds emanating from a neat-looking low pressure system
off the coast of the Outer Banks tonight continue to drift north
into Pennsylvania this evening. Despite the high clouds, high
pressure will produce light/calm winds and another night with
ideal radiational cooling and valley fog potential across the
northern tier. Low temperatures overnight into Tuesday morning
are expected to be above climatological averages, ranging from
the upper 40s across NW PA to the upper 50s across SE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will lift slowly northward from the Outer Banks
and VA Tidewater off the Mid-Atlantic coast through the middle
of the week. Latest model guidance continues to indicate the
best chance for rain over the southeast zones (southeast of
I-81/78) where a moist/upslope easterly low-level flow will
bring better moisture returns. Further north/west, precipitation
is less likely; however, aforementioned easterly flow will
allow for more expansive cloud coverage and cooler temperatures
for much of the forecast area. Most recent QPF has tapered back
ever so slightly, keeping the southern reaches of Adams/York and
much of Lancaster County above 0.10" rainfall over a fairly
tight gradient. Precipitation Wednesday night is expected to
gradually move east of the area as the coastal low begins to
push further offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A brief spell of dry conditions is once again expected in the
wake of the coastal low, with moderate-to-high confidence in dry
conditions beginning on Thursday and continuing through Saturday.
Recent model guidance has slightly slowed down with respect to
the low pressure system in the Midwest with a fair amount of
uncertainty between deterministic model guidance. Given these
changes, have decided to roll with NBM through Monday, with the
best chances of precipitation coming after sunrise on Sunday and
into the end of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight with varying
amounts of high cloud cover. Light winds and a lack of low
clouds will allow for valley fog formation into the early
morning, but most guidance suggests all TAF sites will remain
VFR. That being said, there is around a 40% chance for BFD and
IPT to see a period of IFR or LIFR conditions after 09z before
the fog dissipates.

VFR conditions continue through the day with isolated showers
possible in southeast PA. Clouds will gradually thicken, but VFR
conditions will continue through 12Z Wednesday. The only
exception may be at LNS where easterly flow could lead to MVFR
ceilings developing after 06Z. Valley fog across northern PA
does not appear as likely as it has the past few nights.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Generally VFR, some SHRA possible (20-40%) SE PA.

Fri-Sat...VFR with AM valley fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical fall officially begins with the autumnal equinox
on Monday, September 22, 2025 @ 2:19 p.m. EDT. The Autumn 2025
season will last 89 days, 20 hours, and 43 minutes. Daylight
saving time will end just after Halloween with clocks falling
back at 2 a.m. Sunday, November 2, 2025.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


Latest Public Information Statement:


301
NOUS41 KCTP 081505
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-090305-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025

...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...

Location Temp Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Bedford County...
Claysburg 35 F 0726 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bedford Airport 36 F 0655 AM 09/08 AWOS
Clearville 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Saxton 37 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Blair County...
Altoona-Blair County Airport 35 F 0753 AM 09/08 AWOS
WILLIAMSBURG 36 F 0707 AM 09/08 CWOP
Duncansville 38 F 0655 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Altoona 38 F 0745 AM 09/08 CWOP
4 NNE Williamsburg 38 F 0745 AM 09/08 AWS
Williamsburg 39 F 0645 AM 09/08 HADS
Penn State Altoona 39 F 0712 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Blair Helibase 39 F 0716 AM 09/08 RAWS
2 NNW Altoona 39 F 0720 AM 09/08 AWS
Altoona 39 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Hollidaysburg 40 F 0705 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Williamsburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
ALTOONA 40 F 0726 AM 09/08 CWOP
1 E Bellwood 40 F 0805 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Cambria County...
MINERAL POINT 35 F 0539 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ebensburg 39 F 0731 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Cameron County...
Doll Hill 38 F 0650 AM 09/08 RAWS
Emporium 39 F 0755 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Centre County...
South Philipsburg 32 F 0722 AM 09/08 CWOP
PORT MATILDA 32 F 0725 AM 09/08 CWOP
Spring Mills 33 F 0624 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bellefonte 35 F 0630 AM 09/08 CWOP
Rock Springs 35 F 0707 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Centre Hall 35 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Zion 36 F 0638 AM 09/08 CWOP
Pennsylvania Furnace 36 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
2 SW State College 36 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
PSU UPark PEMN 36 F 0652 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Stormstown 36 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP
Snow Shoe 36 F 0710 AM 09/08 PADOT
State College 38 F 0705 AM 09/08 CWOP
State College 38 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
1 NE Port Matilda 38 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
State College 39 F 0718 AM 09/08 CWOP
Bald Eagle State Park 40 F 0322 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
3 NNW Milesburg 40 F 0640 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Clearfield County...
Clearfield Airport 34 F 0754 AM 09/08 ASOS
2 ENE Clearfield 36 F 0555 AM 09/08 PADOT
Grampian 36 F 0600 AM 09/08 COOP
Dubois 36 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
Psu Dubois 36 F 0722 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
6 NNE Philipsburg 37 F 0650 AM 09/08 PADOT
Clearfield 39 F 0815 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Kennedy Preserve 40 F 0108 AM 09/08 RAWS
1 SSE S.b. Elliot State Park 40 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Clinton County...
Carroll 37 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
Lock Haven 40 F 0655 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Dauphin County...
Halifax 40 F 0725 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Elk County...
Kersey 31 F 0720 AM 09/08 CWOP
Saint Marys 33 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ridgway 34 F 0740 AM 09/08 AWS
Ridgway 36 F 0700 AM 09/08 COOP
St Marys 37 F 0715 AM 09/08 AWOS
Saint Marys 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Franklin County...
Waynesboro 39 F 0630 AM 09/08 CWOP
Willow Hill 39 F 0714 AM 09/08 AWS
Greencastle 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 CWOP
Chambersburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Fulton County...
Forney Trail 34 F 0649 AM 09/08 RAWS
1 NNW Hancock 40 F 0709 AM 09/08 PADOT

...Huntingdon County...
Petersburg 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Huntingdon 38 F 0702 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Mapleton 39 F 0607 AM 09/08 CWOP
Shavers Creek WxSTEM 39 F 0750 AM 09/08 MESOWEST

...Juniata County...
Lemont 38 F 0735 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 38 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP

...McKean County...
Smethport 32 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Kinzua Bridge State Park 34 F 0652 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Bradford Airport 34 F 0753 AM 09/08 ASOS
Smethport 34 F 0800 AM 09/08 CWOP
Port Allegany 36 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP
2 WSW Mount Jewett 38 F 0710 AM 09/08 PADOT
Bradford 5SW 39 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP

...Mifflin County...
2 SSW Alfarata 39 F 0705 AM 09/08 AWS
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 39 F 0715 AM 09/08 AWOS
Chestnut Springs 40 F 0651 AM 09/08 RAWS
LEWISTOWN 40 F 0656 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Northumberland County...
2.6 N Mount Carmel 40 F 0649 AM 09/08 HADS
Knoebels Grove 40 F 0735 AM 09/08 AWS

...Perry County...
1 SW Loysville 37 F 0637 AM 09/08 AWS
Big Knob 40 F 0708 AM 09/08 RAWS
Elliottsburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Potter County...
Ulysses 36 F 0725 AM 09/08 DAVIS
3 W Denton Hill State Park 38 F 0305 AM 09/08 PADOT
Cherry Springs State Park 39 F 0632 AM 09/08 MESOWEST

...Schuylkill County...
Valley View 38 F 0657 AM 09/08 CWOP
Nuremberg 38 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Frackville 40 F 0648 AM 09/08 CWOP
POTTSVILLE 40 F 0700 AM 09/08 CWOP

...Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 40 F 0753 AM 09/08 ASOS

...Somerset County...
CENTRAL CITY 32 F 0730 AM 09/08 CWOP
ROCKWOOD 33 F 0703 AM 09/08 CWOP
HOLLSOPPLE 35 F 0234 AM 09/08 CWOP
Ogletown 35 F 0725 AM 09/08 PADOT
Somerset Airport 36 F 0650 AM 09/08 AWOS
SOMERSET 36 F 0724 AM 09/08 CWOP
Somerset 36 F 0735 AM 09/08 CWOP
2 NNE Garrett 37 F 0705 AM 09/08 PADOT
Meyersdale 37 F 0750 AM 09/08 PADOT
HOLLSOPLE 38 F 0305 AM 09/08 CWOP
Jerome 38 F 0635 AM 09/08 DAVIS
Addison Township 38 F 0722 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
2 NW Indian Lake 39 F 0705 AM 09/08 AWS
Flight 93 Memorial Site 40 F 0512 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Somerset 40 F 0800 AM 09/08 COOP

...Sullivan County...
LOPEZ 32 F 0710 AM 09/08 CWOP
3 NE Laporte 36 F 0740 AM 09/08 PADOT
DUSHORE 38 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
Dushore 38 F 0643 AM 09/08 CWOP
Hillsgrove 38 F 0645 AM 09/08 DAVIS
3.4 E Muncy Valley 40 F 0730 AM 09/08 HADS

...Tioga County...
Wellsboro 35 F 0735 AM 09/08 CWOP
Old Mountain 36 F 0616 AM 09/08 RAWS
Tioga 2 36 F 0712 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Westfield 38 F 0645 AM 09/08 CWOP
1.3 NE Leonard Harrison SP 38 F 0700 AM 09/08 COOP
Wellsboro 38 F 0730 AM 09/08 CWOP
Tioga 39 F 0422 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
0.8 W Tioga 40 F 0800 AM 09/08 HADS

...Union County...
LEWISBURG 39 F 0702 AM 09/08 CWOP
Lewisburg 40 F 0715 AM 09/08 DAVIS

...Warren County...
Grand Valley 35 F 0530 AM 09/08 CWOP
Kinzua 38 F 0622 AM 09/08 RAWS
Warren 39 F 0642 AM 09/08 MESOWEST
Tidioute 40 F 0140 AM 09/08 AWS
&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$