Latest PA Weather Summary:
744
AWUS81 KCTP 091525
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-100530-
Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1025 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
Scattered rain showers will affect the region today, as low
pressure crosses Pennsylvania. High temperatures will range from
the mid 40s in the far northwest to the mild low 60s across the
southeastern piedmont.
Colder air will filter into the region this evening into tonight,
with lingering rain showers changing over to snow showers across
northern and western Pennsylvania. Farther to the southeast,
lingering rain showers will gradually taper off. It will turn
noticeably colder, with low temperatures Monday morning ranging
from the mid 20s across northwestern Pennsylvania to the low 40s
in the Philadelphia area.
Colder weather will persist through the first half of the week,
with occasional snow showers affecting primarily northern and
western Pennsylvania. The heaviest snow is expected downwind of
Lake Erie where 5 to 8 inches of snow will be possible. 1 to 3
inches of snow will also be possible for the ridges of the
Alleghenies. Flurries or sprinkles could drift into the central
mountains as well, with partial clearing southeast of the
mountains.
$$
Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
785
FXUS61 KCTP 092008
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
308 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* LOw pressure overhead will slide east this evening and wrap
cold air into PA tonight, with precipitation gradually
changing over to snow showers across the northern and western
highlands.
* Lake-effect and upslope snow showers continue Mon into Tues,
along with the coldest temperatures of the season thus far.
* Temperatures should begin to moderate by late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Several rounds of showers crossing the CWA at press time. most
are light, but some have been making ltg as they move quickly
across the Lower Susq and into the Poconos. CAPE is in the
triple digits across the S, but could ramp up in the central and
east shortly with a slot of sun in what appears to be the dry
slot of an occlusion. Meso analysis has the main low pressure
center at 19Z over Clinton Co right at the tip of the
spear/clearing. Bubbly clouds in the Laurels will soon encounter
the increase heating of the sunny area ahead of it. That should
lead to an increase in coverage and vertical development. So,
there will be a few more TSRA through 01-02Z as the convection
crosses the CWA. The air temps in wrn NY are already down into
the 30s with a north wind pointing at Warren Co. Thus, the
expected turn to snow showers from rain showers looks on track
for sometime between 6 & 8 PM in the far NW and around midnight
in the Laurels. No significant snowfall is expected overnight.
Some melting may take place at first as the ground (esp the
roads) are warm. However, air temps dip to the 20s around
midnight in Warren Co. That could make already-wet roads icy,
if not treated, tonight. Accums could be 1-2" for Warren and
western McKean Co overnight and less than an inch along the rest
of the western highlands. The valleys will stay milder, and most
places SE of a AOO-UNV-IPT line will likely not hit freezing
before sunrise. But, the higher elevations in the central mtns
probably will. So, there could be a dusting there above ~1700ft.
The flow around the departing low will kick up with gusts into
the 20s, bringing wind chills into the teens in the NW and 20s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cloud-layer flow moving across the lakes on Monday will be
light and directionally-sheared at first, then settle into a
more-stacked NW direction. Lake induced CAPE (51F lake water at
ERI) could reach into the 1000J range with clouds tops in the
5-10kft range. However, the cross-fetch is short at that angle
and would likely keep all but NWrn Warren Co from getting much
accum, esp as temps get close to freezing (and the sun makes
the ground/sfc slightly warmer). However, it`s still wise to
keep a half inch or so in for the NW mtns with this flow. The
rest of the Alleghenies and Laurels will lack snow on the whole
as clouds lose their moisture moving too far away from the lake,
and the deeper plume of moisture from OH (what used to be
connected to/from LM) slide south into WV. That should keep even
the Laurels mainly dry (just a dusting) thru the daylight hrs.
As the sun lowers, the flow will back to west a little and get
an significant addition of LH moisture. This two-lake fetch and
a llJet of 40-45KT will be pointed right into Warren/McKean Cos
for much of Mon night (and into Tues). The SLRs thru the period
will lower to about 17:1 in the nrn mtns. So, it`s not out of
the question for the healthy band/bands to drop >6" in Warren Co
as the moisture rolls uphill. Not so sure about McKean and
Potter Cos, as they are farther from the lakes and the moisture
might not last that long/far into the CWA. At the same time, the
upslope flow into the highest hills of Somerset CO (and all of
PA, really) moistens up again as the flow backs there, too, and
brings the best moisture back N from WV/MD. The residence time
of the (combined) best moisture and uplift over the Laurels
looks short, though. Thus, additional snowfall Mon night and
early Tues is very much in question. Also, the lower 2/3rds
(elevation-wise) of the county will likely get (way) less than
3" for the whole stretch. So, we`ll hold off on any WWA flags
(advy) for Somerset Co at this point in time. We`d like to see
another cycle or two of guidance for that area. A watch has been
posted for Warren Co, and McKean Co (maybe Potter/Elk) might
also need an advy for late Mon into Tues. But, certainty in 3+"
accums are much lower there than in Warren Co. Will hold off on
that, too.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper-level troughing will remain in place through the end of
the week, keeping the chance for rain and snow showers in the
forecast each day through Friday, especially over northwest PA.
A tight pressure gradient will allow for winds gusts in the 30
to 35 mph range Wednesday, with some guidance suggesting the
potential for gusts over the Laurel Highlands to approach 40 to
45 mph.
The December- like cold airmass is forecast to retreat later in
the week, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal
averages. High pressure attempts to briefly build in from the
west which should keep us mainly dry into the beginning of the
weekend, but uncertainty increases by Sunday regarding the
timing of an approaching frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A big dry slot/occlusion is moving thru the CWA at 19Z. The sun
will raise CAPE and convective depth of the clouds moving
quickly in from the west (over JST now). That convection will be
capable of making TSRA, but mainly isold, and the better chance
for that is over IPT, and MDT/LNS (where they already had an
isold TSRA nearby earlier this morning). Will not go too
heavy/long with TSRA mentions, rather confining the mentions to
the couple of hrs most likely per HRRR guidance (generally
21-01Z).
As the bigger shield of rain/showers over the N has already
gone, and the big patch of RA over CLE is right under the best
vort max. Therefore, we do expect rain to move in from the west
again late this aftn and evening. As it gets colder (JHW down
into the 30s already) on the N/NW flow across the lakes from
Canada, we`ll see the p-type turn to SN over the west (BFD first
around 02Z and JST a little later, like 05Z). The flow will
keep low clouds a certainty for the NW half to two-thirds of
the CWA. Lake effect clouds and precip will keep things IFR in
the NW and MVFR to lower VFR for the middle 3 terminals (AOO-
UNV- IPT). But, little to no vsby restrictions will be had for
anyone but BFD and JST. It`s always tough to remember just how
fast the vsby comes down when snow is falling. It`s tough not to
be IFR if there is snow falling. Quite a difference from summer
when it`s tough to be IFR unless thunder occurs with rain (or
foggy/low clouds are there, too).
The lake effect and upslope snows will continue into Tues.
There are a couple periods that should be quieter (less
snow/reduced flight conditions) as a good plume of moisture
that points at the Laurels Sun night and early Mon morning
slides decidedly to the S of PA. Thus, the daylight hours on Mon
will be least likely to have snow falling.
Outlook...
Wed-Thur...Slightly milder, but blustery with MVFR/IFR
conditions in lake effect/upslope snow (rain mid-day) at
KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR cigs elsewhere. Sfc wind gusts
20-30kts from 260-290 degrees (mainly during the day).
Fri...Better. SLGT CHC SHRA N. Otherwise VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
afternoon for PAZ004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Evanego
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo
Latest Public Information Statement:
189
NOUS41 KCTP 061048
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-062248-
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
548 AM EST Thu Nov 6 2025
...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...
Location Speed Time/Date Provider
...Pennsylvania...
...Bedford County...
Bedford Airport 49 MPH 0915 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Blair County...
Altoona-Blair County Airport 55 MPH 0900 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport 56 MPH 0823 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Centre County...
University Park Airport 51 MPH 0705 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Clearfield County...
Clearfield Airport 64 MPH 0736 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Clinton County...
Lock Haven Airport 36 MPH 0705 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Dauphin County...
Harrisburg Intl Airport 62 MPH 0841 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Elk County...
St Marys 43 MPH 0715 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Lancaster County...
Lancaster Airport 54 MPH 0903 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Lebanon County...
Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown 47 MPH 0957 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Lycoming County...
Williamsport Airport 52 MPH 0853 PM 11/05 ASOS
...McKean County...
Bradford Airport 53 MPH 0628 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Mifflin County...
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 61 MPH 0735 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Schuylkill County...
Joe Zerbey Airport 45 MPH 0815 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 48 MPH 0858 PM 11/05 ASOS
...Somerset County...
Somerset Airport 40 MPH 1055 PM 11/05 AWOS
...Tioga County...
Wellsboro Airport 51 MPH 0735 PM 11/05 AWOS
...York County...
Capitol City Airport 54 MPH 0947 PM 11/05 ASOS
York Airport 53 MPH 0857 PM 11/05 ASOS
&&
**METADATA**
:11/05/2025,0915 PM, PA, Bedford, Bedford Airport, , , 40.0833, -78.5167, PKGUST, 49, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0900 PM, PA, Blair, Altoona-Blair County Airport, , , 40.2999, -78.3168, PKGUST, 55, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0823 PM, PA, Cambria, Johnstown Airport, , , 40.3167, -78.8333, PKGUST, 56, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0705 PM, PA, Centre, University Park Airport, , , 40.85, -77.8333, PKGUST, 51, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0736 PM, PA, Clearfield, Clearfield Airport, , , 41.05, -78.4167, PKGUST, 64, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0705 PM, PA, Clinton, Lock Haven Airport, , , 41.136, -77.4219, PKGUST, 36, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0841 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg Intl Airport, , , 40.2, -76.7667, PKGUST, 62, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0715 PM, PA, Elk, St Marys, , , 41.4167, -78.5, PKGUST, 43, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0903 PM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, , , 40.1167, -76.3, PKGUST, 54, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0957 PM, PA, Lebanon, Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown Gap, , , 40.4167, -76.5667, PKGUST, 47, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0853 PM, PA, Lycoming, Williamsport Airport, , , 41.25, -76.9167, PKGUST, 52, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0628 PM, PA, McKean, Bradford Airport, , , 41.8, -78.6333, PKGUST, 53, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0735 PM, PA, Mifflin, Mifflin County Airport-RVL, , , 40.6833, -77.6333, PKGUST, 61, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0815 PM, PA, Schuylkill, Joe Zerbey Airport, , , 40.7, -76.3666, PKGUST, 45, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0858 PM, PA, Snyder, Selinsgrove, , , 40.8167, -76.8667, PKGUST, 48, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,1055 PM, PA, Somerset, Somerset Airport, , , 40.0333, -79.0167, PKGUST, 40, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0735 PM, PA, Tioga, Wellsboro Airport, , , 41.7333, -77.4, PKGUST, 51, mph, AWOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0857 PM, PA, York, York Airport, , , 39.9167, -76.8833, PKGUST, 53, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
:11/05/2025,0947 PM, PA, York, Capitol City Airport, , , 40.2167, -76.85, PKGUST, 54, mph, ASOS, Peak Wind Gust,
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$
MRS
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