Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
018 FXUS61 KCTP 050314 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Areas of fog fade to pleasant sunshine to start to the first weekend of October * Isolated strong thunderstorms possible Sunday PM across parts of western PA; then drying out and cooling down next week with frost risk && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave to our north that provided a few showers across Warren and McKean counties earlier this evening has moved away from the area and the trough axis is now mostly to our east. At the surface, northwesterly flow has developed across the northern tier which is ushering in a drier air mass. This should limit widespread fog development across the northwest half of the area tonight, though patchy dense fog has developed across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and we have issued an SPS through 08Z at which point most models suggest that drier air moving in should lead to a decrease in fog coverage. This may need to be reevaluated though through the night. High pressure builds into the region tomorrow and will provide mainly sunny skies. Ensemble mean 850mb temps in the 7-9C range support highs ranging from the low to mid 60s over the N Mtns, to the mid 70s in the Lower Susq Valley. We have continued to undercut NBM dewpoints based on model soundings, which show very dry air above a weak inversion. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Fair and seasonable weather appears likely into the first half of Sunday before rain chances begin to increase during the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Models still show slight timing differences with the front, but showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the late afternoon and evening. Instability looks to be fairly limited ahead of the front, with most guidance showing ~500-800 J/kg of SBCAPE, but with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, some organization of storms could be possible across the western half of Central PA. SPC has placed this region in a marginal risk of severe weather with isolated damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Rain will quickly come to an end behind the cold front and skies quickly clear out for most of the area as high pressure builds in. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s across the north and west, to the mid 50s in the southeast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Enhanced northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold front will usher in a drier airmass, thus keeping Monday mostly dry. Cyclonic flow and neutral to falling upper level heights could allow for a shower in the Alleghenies, but trends have been for drier air to filter in quicker. High pressure builds into central PA Monday and holds some influence through much of the week, but will have to monitor the potential for a couple reinforcing fronts through midweek as an upper low near southern Hudson Bay rotates a couple of lobes of energy through the Great Lakes and toward PA. Questionable as to the degree of moisture return and associated rain chances with these at this time. A little more uncertainty now exists in regard to frost for next week, beginning Tuesday night. Given the aforementioned frontal boundaries and upper troughiness keeping more cloud cover across northern PA, radiational cooling doesn`t now look as favorable. Ensemble joint probabilities of winds less than 5 mph and temperatures less than 36 degrees of 30-50% support continued mention of frost from Tuesday night on though. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Lingering MVFR ceilings will remain across the Lower Susquehanna Valley (MDT/LNS) over the next couple of hours before further deterioration is progged by the bulk of model guidance. At this time, model guidance hones in on the 04-06Z timeframe for some thickening of the low-level cloud deck towards IFR/LIFR thresholds. There is moderate confidence (~50-60%) in these conditions resolving towards 04Z Saturday with higher confidence on these restrictions coming to fruition after 06Z. Ceilings will continue to remain low at MDT/LNS through 10-12Z Saturday with enhanced low-level moisture in RAP model soundings that is also reflected with HREF probabilities of IFR and below conditions in this timeframe. Elsewhere, some concern for patchy valley fog at BFD close to sunrise (10-12Z Saturday) will bring some potential for sub-VFR flight conditions; however, model guidance remains fairly split and given low-level drier air compared to RAP model soundings, have decided to keep mentions at VCFG at this time with low (~20%) confidence at fog impacts at the airfield. Any fog formation (N PA) and low-level clouds (SE PA) are expected to quickly lift after 12Z with VFR conditions as high pressure settles into the area. There is high (> 90%) confidence in VFR conditions after 13Z Saturday through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Sun PM-Mon...Showers with CFROPA move west-to-east; isolated strong t-storm possible over the western 1/2 of the airspace. Tue-Wed...VFR, no sig wx. && .CLIMATE... Total precipitation for the month of September was 1.11 inches at Williamsport (-3.65" below average) which ranks as the 11th driest on record. The average temperature for the month of September was 63.1 degrees at Bradford (+4.2F above average) which ranks as the warmest September on record. Harrisburg (MDT) consecutive days streak of measurable rain ends at 9 with only a trace recorded yesterday 10/2. This ties the record for longest such stretch set from April 7-15, 1893 and matched May 15-23, 1893 and July 28-August 5, 1971. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco LONG TERM...Guseman/Bauco AVIATION...NPB CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff |
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