Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

202
FXUS61 KCTP 210905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
505 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Staying cloudy and cool today with a touch of drizzle possible
in spots this morning
* Gradual clearing later tonight followed by warmup Friday into
the weekend as Hurricane Erin tracks across the north Atlantic
* Strong thunderstorm potential Sunday followed by a refreshing
taste of Fall into the last week of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A deep east to northeast flow of moisture off the Northern
Atlantic was maintaining a blanket of thick/layered stratus
and stratocu across the entire CWA early today. This was keeping
temps fairly uniform, ranging from the upper 50s from the Susq
Valley and points east, to the low and mid 60s elsewhere.

Expect nothing more than some patchy light drizzle this morning,
with just a light ground wetting possible in a few spots.

Clouds will hold tough through the afternoon and tonight,
leading to 4th day in a row of easterly flow/llvl cool air
damming and below normal temps. High temps this afternoon will
once again be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, which will be near
normal across the Western Mtns (mid 70s) and as much as 6-8 deg
F below normal across the Susq Valley where highs will be in the
low to mid 70s. The coolest temps will be found over the Mtns to
the north and east of KIPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A clearing and drying trend will develop from north to south
later tonight into Friday as an east/west ridge of sfc high
pressure sags south in the wake of Hurricane Erin moving well to
the east of the Mid Atlantic/New England Coast.

Temps will dip into the upper 40s across parts of Mckean and
Potter counties for lows tonight, while the rest of Central and
Southern PA sees mins in the 50s.

Ridging sfc and aloft builds into the area on Friday and brings
a return to mostly sunny skies along with a nice warmup as we
head into the next to last weekend of August.

Temperatures will rebound back to several degrees or more above
normal Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday could be problematic from a potential severe t-storm
standpoint with best overlap of CAPE/shear that we`ve seen in
quite some time. We will continue to risk manage, but may be
front-running a future SPC outlook. We`ll have to see how
conditions evolve.

Longer range model and ensemble data continues to show an upper
trough amplifying over the Eastern U.S. next week. This will
support a substantial cool down and refreshing taste of Fall.
The cool cyclonic flow may even generate some lake effect clouds
showers over NW PA. Otherwise, it looks like a mainly dry end to
August with below normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR conditions will continue to impact central PA terminals this
morning with slow/gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR likely through
the afternoon and evening as drier air filters in from north to
south. There may be a conditional prob fog signal starting to
emerge for late tonight into early Friday morning if skies can
clear out. Plan to assess latest guidance and will consider
accounting for the potential fog/stratus restrictions with the
21/12Z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...VFR. AM fog possible.

Sun...T-storms likely.

Mon...Sct rain showers/lower cigs downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl

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