Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

755
FXUS61 KCTP 120952
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
452 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Discussing timing and precip type for Tues night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Turning warmer to start the week with precip arriving Tuesday
night over the NW.

2) The potential remains for an area of surface low pressure
storm system to develop along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary over the Mid- Atlantic Piedmont or along the Delmarva
Coast and impact Pennsylvania during the second half of this
week, with snow or a wintry mix. There is still a significant
range of outcomes, including that only a weak storm will storm
will form with lighter precipitation. Stay tuned for later
forecasts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad area of surface high pressure stretched from the Lower
Miss Valley to the Southern Appalachians will create a gusty
west-southwesterly flow and slowly rising heights aloft today
through Tuesday. Wind gusts today will peak between 30 and 35
mph. A weak wave aloft will generate clouds across the nrn tier
of PA today. If any snowflakes fall from the clouds over nrn
PA, they`ll be barely worth a mention.

The period of quieter and mainly dry weather for today and
Tuesday still looks in good shape. A wave rolling to our north
on Tuesday will also make some clouds across the north during
the daylight hours.

The wave will initiate backing llvl flow to a more southerly
direction with warm advection and rising sfc-850 mb temps
through the day.

Sfc temps will rise to highs in the U30s N to near 50F S. Any
precip that would hit the ground will hold off until sunset
Tuesday or later in Warren County. This has been a highly
continuous and therefore high-confidence forecast for quite a
few days.

Diffluence aloft and good southerly flow at the sfc from the
western Gulf to our backyard should help moisture increase
Tuesday evening and through the night. Precip will start to drop
in from the NW. Temps will be marginal at the onset for rain vs
wet snow on the higher/cooler elevations. Forecast soundings
keep column temp within a deg or two of -3C below 10kft at BFD
with temp at sfc 30-32F with no overt warm nose. So, that would
be snow. Elsewhere, it should be warm enough at the sfc for
either a mix of RA/SN or just plain rain Tues night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The potential remains for a storm system to develop over the
Mid-Atlantic and impact Pennsylvania later in the week, with
snow or a wintry mix. However, a wide range of outcomes are
still on the table, including that the storm will fail to form
at all. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

An initial mid-week cold frontal passage, accompanied by rain
showers, could turn more interesting late Wed/Wednesday night
and Thursday, as the sfc front and deep layer cooling drifts
slowly east across the CWA, with precip expanding/moving NE on
the cool side of the boundary and beneath an area of increasing
upper level diffluence. The llvl boundary will likely stall
just east and south of the Commonwealth. Some model projections
bring a surface wave northeast along the front, with wintry
precipitation developing back into at least parts of central PA.
Latest NBM suggests roughly a 20 pct chance of at least Winter
Weather Advisory level snowfall, with a large spread in
potential accumulation and the operational GFS/EC indicating a
more robust/extended period of wintry precip/snow Wed night
through Thur Night.

Key model differences remain, and sensible weather during this
period will be driven by small-scale sensitivities in the
sfc/upper-level pattern, which are inherently hard to pin down
this far out. Please stay tuned for later forecast updates
and possible Winter Storm Watches or Winter Weather Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR to low-end VFR cigs will persist across the western half
of the airspace this morning along with 20-25kt wind gusts from
260-290 degrees. MVFR fcst to last into the evening at KBFD. VFR
conditions will continue over the eastern half of the airspace
and winds will pick back up by the afternoon. High confidence
in a return to widespread VFR by 13/00Z. LLWS possible after
13/00Z.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR. Rain/snow developing Tuesday night over the western
1/3.

Wed...MVFR/IFR in rain and snow.

Thu...MVFR/IFR in snow northwest 1/2. Windy.

Fri...Marginal improvement, not as windy; snow possible Friday
night western 1/3.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: