Heavy Rainfall and Flooding in the Southwest and Four Corners; Unsettled Weather in Florida

Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue today across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners Region, leading to flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant river flooding is expected through Monday. Heavy rainfall is expected across southern and eastern Florida through Monday, with isolated flash flooding possible. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

645
FXUS61 KCTP 080953
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
453 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably cool today into the upcoming week with the bulk
of showers from the next, fast-moving upper level disturbance
confined to the Northern Mountains of PA late tonight and Monday
morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably cool today into the upcoming week with
the bulk of showers from the next, fast-moving upper level
disturbance confined to the Northern Mountains of PA late
tonight and Monday morning

A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will move
over Pennsylvania today, leading to a gradual backing of the
wind from the west to the southwest by the midday hours.

Non-precipitating, shallow stratocu clouds blanketing much of
the region early today will clear out for about a 7 to 9 hour
period this afternoon and evening before another fast moving
upper level disturbance and weak cold front moves southeast from
the Great Lakes. This next weather feature will spread clouds
across the region later tonight into Monday morning with
occasional showers focused primarily across the Northern
Mountains of Pennsylvania. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 tenths of
an inch are likely across the Northwest Mountains of PA tonight
and Monday Morning with much lighter amounts further to the
Southeast.

A few brief showers could sneak into areas of the
state south of Interstate 80 late tonight and early Monday.

Otherwise, it will be breezy and cooler through early in the
upcoming week. Wind gusts today will range through the 20s (mph)
but northwest winds on Monday could gust as high as 35 and 40
mph.

There is a growing model signal for a more substantial long
wave trough to carve out over the eastern U.S. by the end of
the week. While still very preliminary given the extended
forecast length and associated uncertainly/low confidence, it
appears the coldest air of the Fall season will attempt to
expand southward late next week with the upper trough and could
be a factor with a potential coastal storm supplying a swath of
precipitation including accumulating snow particularly in the
higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Typical westerly postfrontal upslope flow pattern stays locked
in through Sunday morning with IFR to LIFR conds at KBFD/KJST
and MVFR conds at KUNV/KAOO/KIPT. Periods of drizzle are likely
in the central and western mountains through daybreak. Frequent
wind gusts 20-25kt from 260-300 degrees are expected through
Sunday. Improvements to VFR are expected by late Sunday morning
as low-level moisture clears out, giving way to sunshine with
some high clouds for the afternoon.

Another upper-level low will swing across the Northeastern US
Sunday night through Monday and bring a return of lower clouds
and -SHRA across our area. Flight restrictions will be most
likely at KBFD (MVFR to IFR) and KJST (mainly MVFR), with
intermittent MVFR possible across the Ridge and Valley region
(KAOO/KUNV/KIPT) and VFR favored across the Lower Susquehanna
Valley (KMDT/KLNS). Over NW PA (KBFD), cold air aloft may even
support graupel in a few showers during this timeframe.
Additionally, wind shear may approach LLWS thresholds across
south-central PA (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV) Sunday night as
westerly winds in the lowest 1000-1500 ft approach 35-40 kts.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR with SW to W winds gusting up to around
15-25 kts during the daytime.

Thu...Leaning sub-VFR with rain and snow possible into late next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The sun set at 5PM Saturday 11/7 in State College, marked the
beginning of a 2 month stretch during which sunsets will occur
before 5PM.

It has been one of the warmest starts to November on record in
central PA. Here are the average temperature rankings from Nov.
1-5th:

SITE AVG Temp Rank
Harrisburg 57.9F #13th warmest
Williamsport 55.8F #7th warmest
Altoona 57.9F #6th warmest
Bradford 54.6F #5th warmest
State College 57.1F #4th warmest
Johnstown 59.1F #2nd warmest *since 2000

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Colbert/Teare
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: