Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
770 FXUS61 KCTP 190326 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1126 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Partly cloudy and mild late afternoon and evening in CPA * The weekend ends wet/windy with gusty rain showers late Sunday afternoon through early Sunday night * Remaining breezy and trending cooler Monday with rain tapering off through the day; staying showery and cool through Thursday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A comfortable and pleasant Fall/mid-October afternoon-evening across central PA under partly cloudy to mainly clear skies. Look for a gradual increase in mid and high clouds overnight with similar to slightly milder lows compared to early Saturday morning (mid 40s to mid 50s or +10-15 degrees above climo). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Amplifying 500mb trough will take on a negative tilt as it lifts through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Sunday. A deepening a surface low (sub-1000mb) associated with the upper trough will track through Michigan into eastern Canada toward James Bay. Strong southerly flow ahead of the low will transport Gulf moisture northward and support a modestly moist air mass into PA. A cold front trailing the seasonably strong sfc low is expected to sweep eastward and serve as a focus for one or more lines/bands of gusty rain showers (shallow convective frontal rain bands) late Sunday afternoon through the first part of Sunday night. The setup is a common transition season low CAPE/high shear environment with potential for strong to locally damaging wind gusts 50-60 mph along the convective lines/frontal bands. Brief periods of heavy rain are also possible, but given the progressive forward motion, we feel that the flooding risk is pretty low or on the nuisance side (drought conditions also a contributing factor). Primary risk would be in urban or residential areas particularly where leaves clog storm drains. We coordinated with WPC/PBZ on a further reduction to the D2 MRGL risk ERO which now only includes the Laurel Highlands/southwest PA. SPC shifted the MRGL risk farther to the south and east with the 18/1730UTC update, removing the northern tier of CPA. Dewpoints fcst to only reach the 50s and poor lapse rates will result in very limited instability. Nevertheless, the convective enhancement to the low-topped showers could aid downward momentum transfer of 40-50kt llvl flow to produce isolated 50-60 mph gusts within the strongest linear segments. A tight pressure gradient and 3-6mb fall/rise couplet indicates gusty winds will continue behind the cold front as the llvl flow turns to the west. We continued to adjust NBM wind gusts higher to max out in the 30-40 mph range or below wind advisory criteria for now. This will be the first "windy" period this Fall with the potential to blow leaves and unsecured objects (Halloween decorations) around. Max temps top-out in the 65-75F range in most areas on Sunday with some locations possibly approaching 80F in the LSV. Expect a steady drop in temps across the western Alleghenies Sunday night with low temps -10F colder vs. Saturday night. Wrap-around rain enhanced by upslope flow gradually tapers off and lifts to the northeast through the day on Monday. Breezy and cooler to start next week with rain showers exiting the area Monday night. Wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range are forecast during the day on Monday and will amplify the 24hr cool down/maxT change of -10 to -20 degrees vs. Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... After a brief dry period Monday night into Tuesday, the remainder of next week looks unsettled and quite showery (especially downwind of Lake Erie over NW PA and the western Alleghenies) under the influence of large scale upper level troughing and broad cyclonic flow. It`s conceivable that the the first flakes of the season may be found over the higher elevations along the Allegheny Front. I guess it`s that time of year... Coldest temps are forecast Wed-Thu with daytime highs below late October climo. Minimum temps are projected to bottom Thursday night with some frost risk in the LSV where the growing season remains active. Expect a modest/seasonable warmup heading into next weekend as high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Under VFR conditions, winds will remain calm overnight, but clouds will begin lowring and thickening across the airspace ahead of a cold front expected to arrive on Sunday. Cloud decks will continue to lower Sunday morning ahead of convection/ precipitation. Due to the slow speed of the system, precipitation is not anticipated anywhere in central PA until after 18Z. Restrictions will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening at any site that observes convection. The pressure gradient will also tighten tomorrow, so anticipate non- thunderstorm gusty winds throughout the afternoon on Sunday. Outlook... Sun-Mon...Restrictions possible w/ gusty winds. A line of SHRA is expected, low probability of thunder. Tue-Thur...Scattered showers possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Gartner/Bowen |
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