Dangerous to record breaking heat will build across the center of the nation and slowly build eastward this week. Wildfire conditions remain critical for the Southwest and portions of the Great Basin through Monday. For the northern Plains and upper Midwest, severe thunderstorms with the potential for large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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032 FXUS61 KCTP 020510 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 110 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Bumped PoPs up for isold-sct SHRA/TSRA this PM in the north/east * Expanded the Heat Advisory into Somerset County into Thursday * Expanded the Extreme Heat Warning into Bedford, Fulton, and Blair Counties into Thursday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Significant, long duration, and dangerous heat wave expected for the rest of the week, and into Independence Day for the southeastern cities. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant, long duration, and dangerous heat wave expected for the rest of the week, and into Independence Day for the southeastern cities. Not of lot of change this evening. Risk of storms and showers has been mainly to the east and north of central PA all day. With the loss of heating and trends on the radar as of mid evening, the chance of anything should continue to trend down overnight. The interesting issue is the amt of dry air just above the surface just to the west noted on observed soundings. Dewpoints could drop off on Thursday, making it feel a bit better in that regard. However, the decrease in dewpoints could result in it being warmer than it would be otherwise. More information below. Surface dewpoints are remaining elevated even as peak daytime heating begins early this afternoon. Drier air is struggling to mix down to the surface and as a result high heat index values are being observed even in the higher terrain. This has prompted the expansion of the both the Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning for this afternoon and tomorrow. The messaging will remain the same over the next few days for dangerous heat impacting all of Central Pennsylvania. The big upper ridge and the sfc high will be in place for today and Thursday. Starting on Friday, the upper ridge gets a little less-strong, and the sfc pressure pattern gets a little muddied. Clouds and better chances for SHRA/TSRA will ensue. That should help nudge temps down. While we will still be in a general ridge, the sfc pressure dips a bit and a baroclinic zone slowly dips in from the north. By Sunday, the flow aloft is zonal with the baroclinic zone parallel to the flow aloft (W-E) providing a focus SHRA/TSRA for the end of the weekend and into next week. Time will tell if we will be under the gun for any flash flooding worries Sun and beyond. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure at the surface and aloft which is delivering unseasonable heat and humidity will expand and center more closely to Pennsylvania over the next 48 hours. This will push any ridge-edge convection further north and east of Pennsylvania Thursday and Friday. Good VFR will prevail at all locations through the forecast period. Winds will remain generally light and westerly with just isolated areas (20%) topping 10 knots during the afternoon hours. Biggest concern will be density altitude over the next two days. High resolution short term models forecast dewpoints to drop overnight and then fall into the 50s during the afternoon Thursday. This should keep any widespread fog from forming overnight (<10%), but will help surface temperatures climb a few degrees higher than today. If you`re flying on the heavy side and/or taking off from a runway on the shorter side, double check that value and its effect on your performance. Outlook... Fri-Sat...Patchy AM fog; otherwise VFR. Hot & humid with PM t-storms psbl. High density altitude concerns possible. Sun...Restrictions possible in afternoon t-storms. Mon...Restrictions possible in afternoon t-storms. && .CLIMATE... Bradford reached 89 degrees this afternoon, breaking the old record of 88 degrees set in 1963. Earlier information below. Triple digit max temps are forecast in the Lower Susq Valley (LSV) on Thursday and Friday bookended by upper 90s today and Saturday. The last time Harrisburg observed consecutive days with maxT greater than or equal to 100F was back in 2011 on July 21-22. The record number of consecutive days with maxT >= 100F is 3 and has occurred 5 times: (all in the month of July) 1999-07-16 to 1999-07-18 1999-07-04 to 1999-07-06 1991-07-19 to 1991-07-21 1966-07-02 to 1966-07-04 1936-07-09 to 1936-07-11 The last time Harrisburg hit the century mark was July 16th in 2024. Prior to that, it was July 19th in 2020. Harrisburg averages 1 day annually with a maxT >100F. The most number of days observed in a year is 6 in 1999. The record maxes for the next few days are in jeopardy: Station/Date...07/01...07/02...07/03...07/04...07/05. MDT.............100.....104.....107.....104.....102.. IPT.............102......99.....100.....100.....100.. AOO..............94......97......97......97......94.. JST..............98......98.....100.....100.....101.. BFD..............88......90......91......91......91.. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017- 018-024-037-041-042. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ019-026>028- 036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ019- 026>028-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ025- 034-035. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ025-034-035. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ033. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Martin/Bowen KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Martin DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Martin/Bowen AVIATION...Tyburski/Teare CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Martin |
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