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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
223 FXUS61 KCTP 020314 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track west of Pennsylvania through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. The trailing cold front will push through Central Pennsylvania late Thursday, then stall out out of just south of the region late this week. A wave on the stalled front is likely to lift up the Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure nosing south from S Ontario/Quebec will provide Central PA with fair and chilly weather tonight, along with light winds. Evening satellite imagery shows high clouds associated with an approaching warm front over the Midwest streaming across Northern PA. Latest HREF cloud progs indicate any cirrus will be fairly thin for much of the night, then thicken up around daybreak over the western counties. Mostly clear skies for much of the night, combined with light wind and dry air, should support efficient radiational cooling and min temps a bit below NBM guidance, especially over the eastern counties. Expect daybreak readings to range from the mid 20s in the valleys of North-Central PA, to the mid 30s in the more urbanized spots of the Lower Susq Valley. Isentropic lift at the nose of a strong southerly low level jet lifting into the Grt Lks will likely produce a round of showers across much of Central PA Wed afternoon/early evening. The strongest forcing and highest POPs of around 90 pct are across the NW Mtns, while the Lower Susq Valley stands the least chance of measurable rain. Latest CAMS indicate the most likely timeframe for showers will range from mid afternoon over the NW Mtns, to early evening over the eastern edge of the forecast area. Mostly cloudy skies and a southeast flow off of the chilly Atlantic Ocean should result in max temps Wed a bit below normal for early April. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The showers should lift north of the PA/NY border by late Wed evening with the retreating 8H baroclinic zone. Focus then shifts to an upstream cold front and associated line of convection, which should push into at least the northwest part of the forecast area by dawn Thursday. Current progs indicate minimal surface based instability, but 70kt winds at 850mb supports a MRGL risk of damaging wind gusts toward dawn over the Allegheny Plateau. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showery and mild weather is expected Thursday, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. 18Z EPS plumes suggest the best chance of PM severe weather will be across the Lower Susq Valley, where moderate instability (CAPE near 1000J/kg) is progged in conjunction with deep layer shear of around 40kts. The cold front is then progged to stall out just south of PA Thursday night. A wave on this boundary looks increasingly likely to result in a period of rain Thursday night into early Friday, especially across Northern PA. Latest EPS/GEFS suggests a brief period of cool and drier weather is likely Friday/Friday night associated with a surface high passing north of PA. However, medium range guidance indicates another wave of low pressure riding along the stalled front will result in a rainy weekend. Latest ensemble mean qpf between Thu night and Sun PM ranges from 1 to 2.5 inches over Central PA, with the highest totals focused over the NW Mtns and the least across the Lower Susq Valley. The southeastern part of central PA has been under moderate to severe drought conditions for quite some time, so any rain over that part of the state would be beneficial. There is broad consensus among medium range guidance that upper troughing builds over the region early next week, accompanied by below normal temperatures and scattered rain/snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau. Below average temps are favored for much of next week, which could raise some frost/freeze concerns as the spring growing season gets underway. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... All model guidance continues to indicate VFR conditions with clear skies for a majority of the overnight period (through 10Z Wednesday) with the bulk of model guidance leading to high (~80-90%) confidence in VFR conditions remaining through 18Z Wednesday. Recent model guidance brings a line of showers towards BFD in the 18-20Z timeframe, overspreading eastward through 00Z Thursday, with some potential for TSRA across W PA. At this time, mentions of TSRA are out of the 00Z TAF package as elevated instability is not the most impressive; however cannot rule out some thunder across BFD/JST/AOO. Ceilings are expected (~80-90%) to prevail MVFR at BFD/JST with some signals in RAP model guidance for IFR ceilings at onset at BFD. IFR conditions at BFD seem to be a less likely scenario (~30% probability), thus have kept any mentions with a PROB30 group. Further SE (LNS/MDT), lower confidence on SHRA impacting the airfields based on drier low-levels, thus have kept mentions out of the 00Z TAF package at this time. Outlook... Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S. CFROPA aftn/eve. Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S. Sat...Widespread showers; impacts likely. Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely. && .CLIMATE... Closing out very mild March 2025. Below are the rankings and departures from the historical average through 3/30: Site Avg. March temp Rank Harrisburg 46.5F (+4.9F) 12th warmest Williamsport 44.8F (+6.2F) 9th warmest Altoona 44.4F (+5.9F) 7th warmest Bradford 40.2F (+7.3F) T3rd warmest State College COOP site STCP1 recorded the 10th warmest March on record with an average monthly temperature of 43.3F. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...NPB CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
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