A cold front will linger over Florida through Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, and potential flash flooding concerns. Showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread across eastern and central Florida. Gusty winds and dry conditions will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the southern Plains and southern Rockies through Monday. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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064 FXUS61 KCTP 070839 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Freeze Warning issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning * Freeze Watch issued for Wednesday night into Thursday morning && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by passing rain/snow showers early today followed by Freeze headlines tonight and Wednesday night 2) Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by passing rain/snow showers early today followed by Freeze headlines tonight and Wednesday night Reinforcing shot of cold air aloft will deliver lake enhanced rain/snow showers early today across the northern tier. Tight pressure gradient between compact sfc low exiting the New England coast and 1036mb high migrating eastward across the Ohio Valley will result in breezy conditions with wind gusts 25-35 mph. Today will likely be one of/if not the coldest days until Fall with max (wind-chilled) apparent temps between 20-40 degrees from NW to SE. Favorable radiational cooling under the strong anticyclone will help foster one of/if not the coldest nights until Fall with min temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s. Freeze warnings were issued for the recently activated/early onset growing season counties based on a very warm March-early April period and GDD tracking indices. Freeze watch was also hoisted for Wednesday night with fcst min temps closer to/but still below the freezing mark. KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend An increasingly milder southwest flow will transport warmer air back into CPA by the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend. A pair of weak cold fronts bring minimal rain chances with dry conditions expected most of the time. The overall lack of rain won`t help improve drought conditions across the southeast part of the forecast area and may also bring an uptick in wildfire risk. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered rain/snow showers continue to move across the Allegheny Plateau and Central Mountains as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes. VFR prevails at most terminals with the exception of KBFD and KJST, where lake-enhanced moisture downwind of the Great Lakes (KBFD) and upslope WNW flow (KJST) are contributing to lower ceilings, with temporary IFR being observed in the heavier showers. Winds will increase west to east through 12Z as the shortwave passes to our north and east, bringing northwesterly winds of 15-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts regionwide. Rain/snow shower coverage will gradually diminish through 18Z as a high pressure moves into the Northeast, accompanied by a drier air mass with PWATs around 1.5 SD below climo. For KBFD, recent mesoscale model guidance has been depicting an 850 mb vorticity maximum rounding the base of the shortwave trough later this morning (12Z-14Z), with a loosely organized area of snow showers being associated with this feature. For this reason, a PROB30 for -SHSN with visibility restrictions to at least MVFR was added at KBFD for that timeframe. VFR is very likely (80% chance) across all terminals through 06Z as the shortwave moves off the coast of New England. After 06Z, the LAMP is signaling at a low-confidence chance (10-20%) of visibility restrictions as clearing skies and diminishing winds could provide favorable conditions for radiational fog, with the signal being primarily for KBFD given its proximity to the high pressure center overnight. No mentions of reduced visibilities were written into the TAF given the low probabilities, but this will be monitored in future TAF packages. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR. Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western airspace. Sat...Restrictions poss early N/W, then trending VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare |
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