Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

461
FXUS61 KCTP 041222
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
722 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased cloud cover early today across the Central and SE
zones

* increased POPs for Central and Eastern portions of the CWA
late Friday/Fri night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather continues today through Thursday night with
still below normal - but relatively milder - temperatures
compared to recent weeks

2) Light accumulating snow is possible mainly Fri afternoon and
Night, followed by gusty winds and another shot of Arctic air
with sub zero wind chills for the upcoming weekend

3) Milder days likely for the middle and latter part of next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather continues today through Thursday
night with still below normal - but relatively milder - temperatures
compared to recent weeks

A cold front near a KAVP to KSEg and KMRB line at 09Z this Wed
will be followed by deepening dry air and clearing - with
generally SCT strato cu across the bulk of the forecast area by
13Z today.

Shallow vertical mixing today will tap 10-12KT winds at a
maximum in some gusts, though the bulk of the wind speeds today
will be AOB 8 KTS.

Temperatures will generally top out in the 20s areawide with
lows around daybreak Thursday in the single digits to lower
teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A few periods of light accumulating snow are
likely, mainly Fri afternoon and Night, followed by gusty NW
winds and another blast of Arctic air with sub zero wind chills
for the upcoming weekend. Model consensus suggests 1-2 inches
for much of the region with a few 3 inch reports not out of the
question.

Low pressure system will ride along the top of the western US
ridge and race southeast across the Great Lakes late this week.
This storm will have a strong ridge of high pressure behind it,
ensuring a tight pressure gradient, reinforcing Arctic air, and
strong winds in its wake.

As the sfc arctic front and CFA pushes across the region late
Friday/Friday night, a few snow squalls appear likely, which
could add another coating to 1+ inches on top of the earlier
snow accums.

The bigger story will be the wind and cold to follow. Single
digit (above and below zero) temperatures and below zero wind
chills across much of the region are favored Saturday through
Sunday morning and again later Sunday night and early Monday.
Cold weather products might be needed between Saturday morning
and Sunday morning, given the current winds and temps in the
fcst.

Some guidance suggests another clipper system may bring light
snow on Sunday, but PoPs are limited to 30 pct or less at this
time.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Milder days likely for the middle and latter part
of next week

As was the case on Monday, medium range ensemble guidance
is still holding onto a notable several day stretch of milder
temps (possibly around to several deg F above normal) for the
second half of next week.

Surface high pressure moves to our east and a progressive/somewhat
flat upper level ridge descends down the easter side of the Central/
NRN Rockies and warming before moving east across the
Plains/Midwest/Ohio Valley, and eventually PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR conditions across portions of northern/western
Pennsylvania will dissipate by 04/14Z with high (~80-90%)
confidence based on a consensus of HREF/NBM/GLAMP model guidance
as cloud cover slowly begins to shift further south/east of the
area. These trends are tracking fairly well with recent ECONUS
Nighttime Microphysics, hence the increased confidence with
respect to airfields lifting towards VFR. Between 04/14Z and
05/00Z, all model guidance points towards widespread VFR
conditions, leading towards the 04/12Z TAF package highlighting
a brief period of clear skies before high clouds begin to filter
into the region with a scattered deck of low- level clouds
(generally above 4kft AGL).

After 05/00Z, model guidance becomes less certain with respect
to ceilings across the western airfields (BFD/JST) as more
recent HREF/NBM model guidance begins to indicate favorable
signals for IFR conditions, especially after 05/06Z through the
end of the TAF package. Recent HREF probabilities for ceilings
below IFR thresholds max out at BFD between 60-80% with slightly
lower, but still fairly notable, probabilities between 50-60%
at JST in the 05/06Z to 05/12Z timeframe. GLAMP model guidance
has been much more keen IFR/LIFR thresholds being met at BFD,
thus seems extremely plausible to indicate LIFR conditions with
the most uncertainty with respect to onset timing having some
potential to begin as early as 05/03Z. At JST, lower confidence
on LIFR thresholds being met; however, with HREF model guidance
indicating similar probabilities at BFD, see no reason not to
include LIFR mentions after 05/06Z, just with lower confidence.

Outlook...

Thu...Mainly VFR. MVFR cigs poss NW, mainly AM.

Fri...SN, mainly light. NW: IFR (90% chc), LIFR poss (40% chc).
SE: MVFR (80% chc), IFR (40% chc).

Fri PM...CFROPA SHSN with IFR likely west & central, SNSQ also
poss (30%), LIFR poss (50%). SE: -SN ending.

Sat...Sct AM SHSN/MVFR BFD/JST. No sig wx elsewhere.

Sun...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...NPB

Forecaster's
Discussion: