Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

980
FXUS61 KCTP 091136
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
636 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A storm system will cross Pennsylvania today, accompanied by
scattered rain shower.
* Colder air will wrap in behind this system this evening into
tonight, with precipitation gradually changing over to snow
showers across the northern and western highlands.
* Lake-effect and upslope snow showers continue Mon into Tues,
along with the coldest temperatures of the season thus far.
* Temperatures should begin to moderate by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patchy dense fog has formed across north-central Pennsylvania
during the early overnight hours, with several sites now
reporting vsbys at or below 1/4 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory has
just been issued for most of the area along and north of I-80.

Patchy light rain showers will continue to drift across northern
and western Pennsylvania through the remainder of the overnight
as well.

Sfc low pressure will cross Pennsylvania today, accompanied by
scattered rain showers areawide. Rainfall amounts through this
evening are expected to be 0.10-0.40" across central PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Colder air will wrap into the area behind the departing system
this evening into tonight, with lingering rain showers changing
over to snow showers across northwestern PA this evening and
across the remainder of the northern and western highlands
overnight. Farther to the southeast, rain showers will
gradually taper off overnight into Monday AM.

Monday will feel noticeably colder, with a brisk northwesterly
breeze and scattered snow showers continuing across the
northern and western highlands. Occasional flurries or
sprinkles could spill into the central mtns as well.

Highs Monday will range from the low 30s across north-central
Pennsylvania to the upper 40s in the Lower Susq Valley, which is
10-20 degrees below average for this time of year. A preview of
winter...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deep upper-level troughing over the Eastern United States will
result in continued cold temperatures into midweek, with a
favorable NWerly flow pattern setup for the first widespread
lake effect and orographically enhanced snow accumulation of the
season. This will be the coldest airmass we`ve seen so far this
season, with wind chills holding in the 20s and 30s areawide
both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is favored across the usual northwestern
lake-effect snowbelt and southward into the Laurel Highlands.
A plowable snowfall (2"+) is likely for the northwestern
snowbelt downwind of Lake Erie. Antecedent warm ground
temperatures may limit accumulation at onset, but it will
eventually begin to stick. East of I-99 and south of I-80, snow
showers or flurries are possible but accumulating snowfall
appears to be less likely.

The December-like cold airmass is forecast to retreat later in
the week, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Locally dense fog has developed across some of the area, causing
significant reductions in visibility for BFD and UNV. Several
METARs in the area are reporting visbys of 1/4 mile or less.
These foggy spots could linger just beyond sunrise until a
scattered rain shower scatters the fog, or mixing occurs to lift
the stratus deck up to IFR and MVFR levels.

Today, lower clouds and rain showers will slowly spread across
the Commonwealth from NW-SE, as a surface low pressure wave
tracks through the region. Deteriorating conditions should
result in continued IFR restrictions at KBFD (80% confidence
level), with MVFR-fuel alternate restrictions expected elsewhere
(60-70% confidence levels). The only sites that could remain VFR
are in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Rain will transition to
snow at KBFD early Monday morning as the cold air arrives and
the lake effect machine starts up.

As for surface winds, light and variable flow overnight (5 kt or
less), should ultimately turn S-SE by midday today, then SW-W
late in the day. Some gusty winds (up to around 20 kt) are
possible during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Gusty W-NW winds (up to 30 kt) area-wide. MVFR to
occasional IFR restrictions in snow showers anticipated at KJST
and KBFD. Brief MVFR restrictions could occur at KAOO, KUNV, and
KIPT, but otherwise look for VFR.

Wed-Thur...Slightly milder, but blustery with MVFR/IFR
conditions in lake effect/upslope snow (rain mid-day) at
KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR cigs elsewhere. Sfc wind gusts
20-30kts from 260-290 degrees (mainly during the day).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Evanego
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Evanego/Bowen
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Bowen

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