Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

953
FXUS61 KCTP 100559
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1259 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Light snow ends in NW PA; round 2 on the way Wednesday morning
* Windy with wet snow and mixed precipitation Wednesday followed
by lake effect/upslope snow showers through Thursday night
* Periods of snow and below normal temperatures Friday through
the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A quick shot of light snow across the NW mtns will end early
this evening. Elsewhere, expect cloudy skies with steady/flat
to slowly rising (non-diurnal) temps overnight as WAA ramps up
ahead of fast moving/intense clipper low racing eastward from
southwest MN to lower MI by 12Z Wednesday. Min temps occur early
tonight in the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The strong WAA downstream from the clipper low will overrun a
retreating cold antecedent airmass, creating broadening plume of
precip, falling primarily as wet snow across the NW Alleghenies
during the predawn hours impacting the morning commute.
HREF/RRFS model signals suggest a brief period of zr/sleet is
possible along the southeast edge of the precip shield near the
I81 corridor (strongest ice signal is over Schuylkill County).
Later shifts can assess potential for SPS or short-fused winter
wx advisory (low confidence, but non-zero prob of ice glaze).

No significant changes to expected snowfall totals with max
amounts 2-5" over the northern tier/Route 6 corridor. Local max
~6" may be found in the higher terrain in Sullivan County. Snow
rates are projected to be in the 0.50-1 in/hr range in the NW
mtns during the 5-10AM window before shifting eastward across
north central PA toward the Poconos.

Intermittent snow/rain in the valleys along I99/US220 corridor
from Blair/Centre County east along I80/US220 should result in a
slushy coating to 1 inch. There is a scenario where wetbulb
effects help to lock in colder air for a longer duration over
the central ridge/valley region, which may result in a bit more
snow than currently fcst. Temps are expected to rise above the
freezing mark particularly along and southeast of I99/I80
corridor by the afternoon. Temps could stay a few degrees colder
in the northern tier, but road snow will likely become more
limited after midday given the marginal air/road temps.

We expanded the winter wx advisory to include the Laurel
Highlands in coordination with PBZ/LWX. Rain to snow transition
occurring over the course of the day on Wednesday will be
followed by an extended period of orographically enhanced snow
showers with blustery winds through Wednesday night as the
strong storm tracks northeast through the St. Lawrence River
Valley. We could foresee the advisory being extended for the NW
mtns where additional LES accums are expected into Thursday.

Winds increase tomorrow with frequent gusts in the 25-35 mph
range; locally higher gusts up to 40 mph on the Laurel
Highlands. Given the wet character of the snow early on
Wednesday, blowing and drifting impacts are not a concern at
least initially. However, as temps fall into Wednesday night,
expect the character of the snow to become drier or more fluffy
which increases the potential for blowing and drifting over the
higher terrain Wednesday evening through Wednesday night. Wet
surfaces and slush areas will be prone to refreezing and icy
spots overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Late afternoon update.

Pattern supports fast moving weaker systems, mainly to the north
and south. Wide swings in guidance at times, given the large
scale pattern.

For the next system, the highest chance for snow later Friday
is mainly south of our area again.

Pattern supports an abnormally cold period.

Earlier discussion below.

Lake effect snow showers and gusty northwesterly winds
continue on Thursday with additional snow accums expected over
the northwestern mountains and Laurel Highlands. A few long
fetch bands or locally heavy snow showers/squalls are possible
on Thursday and could extend as far southeast as I81.

Winter weather/periods of snow continue from Friday through the
weekend and into early next week with a series of upper troughs
and clippers followed by reinforced cold NW flow and lake
effect/upslope snow showers. Temperatures remain below the
historical average heading into mid-December.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A clipper system will bring periods of light to moderate snow
to the region on Wednesday morning and into the afternoon,
initially moving into BFD by 09Z. Ceilings will fall to MVFR
from west to east as precipitation arrives, and BFD should see
IFR ceilings by 09Z. The main uncertainty arises from the
precipitation type forecast. BFD should see all snow, but all
other TAF sites will have the potential for mixed precip. IFR
visibilities are likely outside of AOO, MDT, and LNS during the
late morning and afternoon as snow rates increase.

LLWS will be a concern through the rest of the night and into
the afternoon as a 45 to 60 knot low-level jet traverses the
region. Behind the cold front Wed evening into Thu, winds will
turn out of the west and increase with sfc gusts 15-35 kts
(highest in the Laurels).

Precipitation ends for most of Central PA by 00Z Thursday as the
system exits to the east, but lake effect and upslope snow
showers continue for BFD and JST.

Outlook...

Thu...Snow showers continue, mainly N/W PA. Windy.

Fri-Sun...Additional rounds of light snow possible with multiple
clipper systems.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Bradford, PA had two records in one night! Their temp of -4F
just before midnight EST on 12/8 broke the previous record of -2F
set in 1970.

As the temp continued falling through the night, they tied the
12/9 record low of -12F at 618 AM EST. This tied the record set
in 2002.

Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
December 21st.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
Thursday for PAZ024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
PAZ037-041-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Martin/Colbert

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