Another Round of Heavy Rain and Mountain Snow in California; Snow in the Great Lakes and Northeast

Another round of heavy rainfall will renew concerns for additional flash flooding and landslides in southern California around burn scars and coastal mountain ranges. A low pressure system is bringing enhanced snowfall downwind from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast mountain ranges. Above average temperatures will challenge or break daily record high temperatures across the southern Plains. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

230
FXUS61 KCTP 231150
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
650 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Patchy fog tonight will give way to increasing clouds and a
few snow showers in the northern tier before sunrise
* Breezy Sunday with a couple rain/snow showers in northern PA
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday-Wednesday;
turning decidedly brisk and colder with gusty winds and lake
effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak warm air advection from the west was supporting a
progressive north/south band of snow showers moving across the
Northern and Central Mtns of PA early this morning. QPF will be
just a few hundredths of an inch at most and a few spots on the
higher terrain may see a light dusting of snow.

The wedge of warmer llvl air across the Ohio Valley and Lower
Great Lakes will move across PA during the late morning across
Western 1/2 of the CWA and early afternoon in the east). A cold
front following this briefly milder air will push across the
Commonwealth this afternoon with little if any fanfare in the
precip dept. However, the presence of the thermally direct,
descending, left rear quadrant of a 120 kt upper level jet
will negate anything more than a sprinkle or flurry today.
Partial clearing is possible across the Central Mtns and
Susquehanna Valley for the mid to later afternoon.

Expect a rather gusty, westerly breeze this afternoon in the
25-35+ mph range. A couple of passing rain or snow showers are
also possible particularly near and to the north of Interstate
80.

Plenty of clouds will be common over the Alleghenies with
brighter spots in the lower Susquehanna Valley thanks to
downsloping. The brisk wind will make it feel like daytime max
temps are in the 30-45F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in for tonight, ending rain/snow showers
in the north and relaxing the gusty wind. Good travel conditions
are expected to start Thanksgiving week with fair and tranquil
weather on Monday. Clouds begin to increase Monday night as a
milder warm advection pattern quickly shifts downstream from
Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on
Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the
historical average for late November.

Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. Depending on how fast precip can advance into the
retreating cold sector early Tuesday, there is a narrow window
for some mixed precip on the front-end, but not wintry impacts
expected as of now.

Well-defined cold front will plow through the Appalachians later
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow is
expected to deliver much colder temperatures by Thanksgiving.
This pattern shift and below normal temperatures will trigger
lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline into SW
NY before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts late in the week.
Several inches of snow accumulation and significant travel
disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Patchy fog in Susq Valley early this morning with MDT/LNS
impacted.

High and mid clouds increasing ahead of a low pressure system
tracking well to our north. Best chance for precip appears to
be along and behind associated cold front which will move
through during the late morning/early afternoon. Winds will be
gusty this afternoon behind the front, particularly west of
UNV. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots appear likely, with a few gusts as
high as 35 knots possible at JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen/RXR

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