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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
366 FXUS61 KCTP 040007 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 807 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front bisecting PA from Southwest to Northeast this evening will sag slowly to the southeast, stalling out of just south of the region later tonight and Friday. A wave on the stalled front will lift up the Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Sfc cold front was located along a line from Near KBGM to KIPT, KUNV and KPIT at 23Z. Notable llvl neg Theta-E advection will be occurring across northern PA via westerly flow behind the cfront, while a distinct corridor of high PWAT air around 1.5 inches remains across the SE half of the CWA as the nose of a mid level SWRLY jet max and increasing diffluence at upper levels transports a few more rounds of light to briefly MDT rain across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CWA through 06Z. The cold front won`t quite make it to THV/LNS by midnight. But, it should clear the rest of the area by then. Additional rainfall overnight will range from less than 0.10 of an inch across the North to between 0.25 and 0.50 over the Southern third of the CWA. Mins tonight s/b close to 40F north but remain in the m50s far southeast tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The high pressure over central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes will slide eastward and keep a drying nrly flow going until Fri night when veers to the SE. The sfc front should be languishing over MD-WV/nrn VA into Sat. Multiple waves of low pressure/shortwave troughs will roll eastward along it, and give us many chcs for rain/thunder. The first of which will be later Fri night. Have ramped up PoPs thru the night to 100s for most of the area by Sat AM. The SE flow will again bring plentiful low clouds and areas of drizzle to the eastern cos. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Waves of low pressure riding east/northeast along the stalled to lifting frontal boundary will result in periods of soaking rainfall (with some embedded convective elements) this weekend. Latest WPC/NBM QPF fcst projects the heaviest rain (0.50-1.50") over the western and northern Alleghenies with <=0.50" across the south central ridges into the lower Susquehanna Valley (where it is needed the most). There is a broad consensus among the medium range operational and ensemble guidance that the primary cold front (and associated band of rain) slides to the southeast of the area by early Monday. Model data favors a period of dry weather during the day on Monday with noticeably cooler max temps (~55F) over the southern tier of CPA (-10 to -15 degrees cooler vs. Sunday). The focus will shift to a cold upper trough digging through the Great Lakes into the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. This feature should bring unseasonably cold temps (-15 to -25F below the historical average) and unsettled wx with rain/snow showers likely along with some potential for strong blustery wind gusts. The colder cyclonic/NW flow should linger snow showers downwind of Lake Erie over the Allegheny Plateau into Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday morning. Temps should hit a nadir Tuesday into Tuesday night. There are some long range model signals that suggest upper level troughing will reload (with potential for a closed low to move deep into the southeast US) into the second half of next week. This pattern would favor a continuation of temps below the historical average for the second week of April. There may also be an opportunity for frost/freeze conditions as the spring growing season gets underway in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A couple of passing rain showers mainly in the northern and southern tier airspace through the afternoon, but overall we expect a lull in precip through 04/0000UTC. Flight cats have improved to MVFR/VFR and expect these conditions to hold into tonight. Wind gusts 20-30kt from 220-250 degrees are expected through the afternoon with downsloping flow on the eastside of the Allegheny Front favoring VFR cigs. Another round of rain with some potential for embedded thunderstorm clusters is forecast later tonight into early Friday morning primarily focused over the southern 2/3 of the central PA airspace. Outlook... Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S. CFROPA aftn/eve. Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S. Sat-Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely. Sun...Lingering rain/snow showers; restrictions poss especially N/W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen |
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