Regional Outbreaks of Severe Weather Through Early Next Week; Early Season Heat Wave across the South

Active spring pattern across the center of our nation with several episodes of severe weather and heavy rainfall expected into next week. The potential for very large hail, long track tornadoes, severe wind gusts, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and flash flooding are in the outlook. Furthermore, dangerous early season heat wave continues for the Gulf Coast states into early next week. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

632
FXUS61 KCTP 091154
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
754 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered damaging wind gusts and flash flooding are possible
across portions of south central and southeastern Pennsylvania
this afternoon and evening
* Continued seasonably warm and humid into mid July with daily
chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of fog and low clouds early this morning will give way to
a mix of clouds and sunshine. Max temps will be in the 80-90F
range from NW to SE with slightly reduced humidity levels based
on sfc dewpoints trending about 5 degrees lower vs. Tuesday.

500mb trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. HREF data depicts a belt modestly enhanced
southwesterly mid level flow that will contribute to slightly
higher bulk shear values ~30kts than in recent days. This may be
offset to some extent by drier/less humid air that will result
in lower instability/CAPE across most of CPA. The area to watch
will be over the southern tier particularly into the lower Susq
Valley given juxtaposition of max CAPE/shear and 1.5-2" PWAT.
Latest CAMs show T-storms initiating over far southwest PA into
WV as shortwave energy rotates into the Upper Ohio Valley then
ramps up in both coverage and intensity spreading eastward to
the I-95 corridor by 00Z. For now, there appears to be a
stronger signal for a heavy rain axis and corresponding flash
flood risk farther to the south over northern MD, but we issued
a flash flood watch from Adams to Lancaster County which could
be impacted especially if convection trends farther to the north
and west through the day. Showers and storms could persist into
the overnight period in parts of south central/southeast PA
before shifting to the north/east after 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Diurnal heating of a seasonably moist and weakly capped
boundary layer will result in afternoon thunderstorms through
late week over CPA. Precipitable water values look to trend
lower vs. previous days. This will reduce the excessive rainfall
and flash flood risk while remaining sufficient to support the
potential for wet downbursts and isolated wind damage. SPC has
maintained a level 1 marginal risk for both D2/Thu and D3/Fri.
Typical mid July summertime temperatures expected with daytime
highs in the 80-90F range and lows 60-70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms continue over
the weekend and into early next week with max/min temps trending
near to slightly above normal for mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High res ensemble model guidance indicates any patchy low cigs
and IFR/MVFR vsbys vanishing quickly between 12-13Z as a
relative minimum in moisture covers much of Central and Western
PA followed by variable amounts of mainly mid level clouds.
Building TCU will occur during the mid to late afternoon, mainly
across southern PA/Lower Susq Valley.

In contrast to the predominant VFR at most airfields, deep
layer moisture pooling across SE PA (As far NW as a KHGR to KTHV
and KLNS line) will lead to the development of slow moving and
possibly training TSRA with ocnl low end MVFR to IFR Cigs and
Vsbys.

Local restrictions possible again in the form of low clouds/fog
for a few hours very late tonight/Thu AM (especially where
afternoon/evening showers and storms occur -followed by
clearing and light wind). Will allow the 18Z TAF to focus in on
specifics for the locations/extent of those conditions.

Outlook...

Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA.

Thu-Sun...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
aftn/eve.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for PAZ064>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen/RXR

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