Red Flag Warnings/Watches Map | Text Products | Spot Forecast Request | Forecast Discussion | Operating Plan
878
FXAK69 PAFG 172215
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow showers persist this afternoon, some of them will feature
brief moderate to heavy snow and low visibility.
* Additional snow accumulations around 0.5" to 1.5". Highest
amounts in the higher elevation.
- Light snow showers and flurries possible Sunday morning,
otherwise drying out and remaining chilly with some afternoon
sunshine.
- South winds increase in the AK Range late Sunday night through
Monday night with gusts around 50-60 mph.
- Snow begins as early as Monday afternoon south of Trims Camp
with the potential for heavy snow in the AK Range and Eastern
Interior Tuesday into Wednesday and lighter snow in the
Central Interior. Gusty NE winds possible.
* There is quite a bit of uncertainty in Fairbanks as the
gradient of heaviest to lightest snow may set-up directly
over the city.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Some sunshine north and east of the Seward Peninsula today,
otherwise expect cloudy weather in most spots.
- Rain/snow showers and areas of fog persist through Sunday
night, especially from the Seward Peninsula south. A period of
light snow expected Sunday night into Monday in Southwest AK.
* 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
- Drizzle, fog and flurries, especially along the coast Tuesday
and Wednesday with north-northwest winds around 20 to 30 mph
along the coast and 5 to 15 mph in the Interior.
- High temps range from the 20s to 30s (north to south) with
lows in the teens in the Interior and 25 to 30 on the coast.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Low stratus is likely, but a few peaks of sun today and
tomorrow are possible, increasing southwest winds up to 35 mph
along the Chukchi Sea Coast and 25 mph along the Beaufort Sea
Coast through Sunday night.
- Light snow for the Chukchi Sea Coast and Western Brooks Range
tonight through Monday morning, several inches of snow
possible, especially in the higher terrain.
- Wide range of temperatures, coldest in the Brooks Range with
below freezing temps along much of the coast except Point Hope
which remains in the low to mid 30s.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather persists in Northern Alaska with a departing
front in the Interior bringing snow showers through Sunday. A
narrow area of snow is expected to develop around Kivalina/Red
Dog Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with several inches
of snow and gusty winds expected. A low in the Gulf then moves
northward with light snow in SW AK on Monday and heavier snow
from the Eastern AK Range north and east Monday afternoon
through Wednesday morning. There is a potential for moderate to
heavy snow around Fairbanks, but we will be right on the
gradient of where the snow will be. Regardless, the heaviest
snow looks to set-up east of Fairbanks with lighter snow west of
Fairbanks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quite a bit of weather going on in Northern Alaska so lets jump
into the upper level drivers of this pattern. It`s pretty messy
overall with a 495 decameter Arctic low north of Wrangel Island
and its accompanying cold front draped over eastern Siberia. A
weak, broad 522 decameter upper low in the Central Bering,
transient ridging over the West Coast and a trough extending
from the North Slope to the Gulf. Starting up north, as the
Arctic front drifts southeast, it will collide with warmer air
just north of the Seward Peninsula allowing for a decently
strong baroclinic zone to set-up which will support a narrow
band of snow in the vicinity of Kivalina, Point Hope and Red
Dog Mine. This area of snow will bring moderate snow where it
sets up with the potential for several inches. On top of this, a
pressure gradient will increase across the North Slope and
Brooks Range which will increase southwest wind gusts tonight
through Monday morning. Given that temperatures will be hovering
around freezing, we aren`t expecting blizzard conditions, but
lowered visibility and some blowing snow is likely, especially
in the Kivalina/Red Dog Mine corridor.
The low in the Bering will bring areas of rain and snow from the
Seward Peninsula south this evening through Sunday night, then
an enhanced plume of moisture is likely in SW AK Sunday night
bringing light snow and up to a few inches of accumulations from
Unalakleet to Hooper Bay east. After this, the energy which is
bringing the snow to SW AK will then move towards South-Central
as the upper low moves onshore Monday evening. The upper low
will turn negative allowing for an abundance of upper level
divergence and isentropic ascent from the Eastern AK Range to
the Interior from Monday night through Wednesday. There is quite
the discrepancy in the models as the ECMWF is the most bullish
with almost triple the amount of QPF than the GFS in some spots.
The GFS has a strong upper low moving into the Gulf but it is
nearly over Anchorage, which would push the heaviest snow to the
west as well and bring southerly flow to the AK Range,
downsloping much of the Tanana Valley. The ECMWF has a weaker
and farther east upper low which then transfers its energy into
The Yukon where a 975mb surface low develops. This then helps
drive much of the heavy precipitation, limiting downsloping. The
Canadian is weaker and farther east bringing snow mainly in the
Fortymile country. The ECMWF has been the most consistent model
in terms of 500mb vorticity trends, with subtle differences in
timing, whereas the GFS/CMC have been bouncing around with
disorganized vorticity trends. So we are leaning towards more of
a European solution. This means our confidence is increasing
for heavy snow in the Eastern AK Range and Eastern Interior with
upwards of 1 to 2 feet of snow in Isabel Pass and potentially 5
to 10 inches from Delta Junction north/east. Fairbanks will be
the battle zone, right on the edge of the precipitation and
cold/drier air. This colder and drier air is coming from the
Arctic front to the west. There is a possibility to see several
inches of snow in Eielson, and a couple inches in Fairbanks, but
there is the same possibility to see upwards of 6 inches of
snow in Fairbanks with more to the east. Until we know what
500mb vorticity will look like, it will be difficult to
determine the precipitation shield, rates and location. However,
the Eastern Interior looks to get their largest system of the
season so far.
Regardless, this looks to be the first big snowstorm for many in
the Interior and may be the beginning to the permanent snowpack.
We will continue to monitor this storm and update as necessary.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main concern looking into the long term is a strong low
which develops and moves towards the Kamchatka Peninsula on
Thursday. This low looks to peak in strength and gradually move
east towards the Eastern Bering Sea Friday/Saturday. This is
where uncertainty lies. The storm can do 1 of 2 things, the
first is move towards the Bering Strait/eastern Siberia while
the second is drop south towards the Aleutians. The key to these
differences is a ridge sitting out ahead of the low over
Northern Alaska on Friday as well as a trough to the north of
the ridge. These two features can result in a blocking
mechanism for the Bering Sea low, but it looks like the ridge
will continue to progress east as it is a pretty transient
pattern prior to this storm. If the farther north solution pans
out, we can expect heavy precipitation to much of Northern
Alaska (rain and snow), strong wind along the coast and coastal
impacts. As of right now, it is too early to give specifics
given the uncertainty but this storm has the potential to be
impactful for many, especially Western Alaska.
Coastal Hazard Potential...
As previously stated in the long term, we`re monitoring a low in
the Bering Sea from Thursday to Saturday. With a farther north
track towards the Bering Strait, there will likely be minor
coastal impacts with a long fetch of southerly to southwesterly
flow. A southern track would lead to more offshore flow, but we
are leaning towards a more northerly track. This is something we
will be monitoring very closely and will have more specifics as
details become clearer.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for AKZ834-838.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for AKZ835>837.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late
Wednesday night for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
Sunday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ813-
857-858.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
Sunday for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ853.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ858-
861.
Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ858-
859.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ859.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ860.
&&
$$
Bianco
367
FXAK68 PAFC 171306
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Discussion:
The stacked low that has been traversing the Gulf over the past 24-
hrs will move into the far northeastern reaches of the Gulf this
morning before weakening through tonight. Scattered showers remain
ongoing still over the north-central Gulf and these are anticipated
to wind down by this evening. A weak little band of light snow has
developed over portions of the southern Copper Basin, but this will
also dissipate later today. The other feature of note is a weak
front moving into eastern Southcentral today from the west. The
front has helped with some scattered rain/snow showers across the
Susitna Valley. As this front progresses eastwards, scattered
precipitation will shift into the Northern Copper Basin. Any
precipitation from this front will be light and won`t amount to
much.
Colder air will move in behind the front, helping to scour out some
of the cloud cover and dropping temperatures overnight. Sunday
morning temperatures will fall into the 20s to lower 30s for all but
the coastal areas where temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to
lower 40s.
The primary system to watch for early next week will be a low in the
Bering with its associated front lifting across the Bering, AKPEN,
and western Gulf, including Kodiak Island, early Monday...moving
inland by midday. Precipitation will spread across these areas then
into Southcentral by the evening hours. Models aren`t handling this
system well, and that could have a significant impact on
precipitation type and amount. For now, temperatures look to be
above freezing by the time precipitation moves in and would result
in either rain or a rain/snow mix for most areas. Higher elevations
could see mostly snow from this event. Details on this system will
continue to be ironed out over the next day or so. For now have
stuck with a general consensus blend to highlight the upcoming
precipitation.
- PP
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...
A front currently situated in the central Bering Sea is bringing
light rain showers to the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska this
morning. The front will rapidly decay as it moves into the
eastern Bering and is expected to have very little impact for
Southwest Alaska. A second, separate front moves rapidly along its
heels, developing over the Central Aleutians this afternoon and
tracking across the Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain through tonight.
Expect another round of wet and windy weather over Unalaska to
Pribilofs by this evening. The front reaches the Southwest Coast
early Sunday morning, rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow
returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior
Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler
temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and
Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence remains
largely unchanged, still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the
dependency on local temperatures.
Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the
Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated
thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding
marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the
Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday
morning.
KM/CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...
The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues
through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern
poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low
along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty
easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula,
Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled
and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak
shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally,
gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back
side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian
Islands and AKPen, especially through favored gaps and passes.
By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected
to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area
south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and
strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of
Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday
afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with
the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central
Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb
ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By
Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing
another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, will other
solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both
solutions do suggest a new frontal system entering the
westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the
progression of guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...CPANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for most of the
TAF period. There will be a potential for rain showers and lower
ceilings (possibly as low as MVFR) to return to the terminal late
Tuesday morning.
&&
$$
926
FXAK67 PAJK 171900 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1100 AM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026
.UPDATE...The next round of widespread rain (transitioning to
showers) along a weakening front is moving across SEAK today,
although rainfall amounts, while locally heavy at times, will
still be less than what we saw across portions of the area
Thursday into Friday. We are watching a weak area of low pressure
move just south of Yakutat today, with cool midlevel air east of
the low steeping midlevel lapse rates just enough to warrant
keeping convection/showers with a few thunderstorms in the
forecast for today into this evening. Visibile satellite imagery
from GOES 18 is also indicating scattered TCU buildups over the
eastern GulfAK this morning as expected moving generally to the
east and northeast. Growth in the TCU is not tall enough to get
lightning it seems so far today, but we will continue to monitor.
05/garmon
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...It going to be another one of those days where
we go from upper MVFR to low end VFR to upper end IFR to lower end
MVFR as scattered showers move across each TAF site. Showers today
are not producing gusts to near gale force like yesterday, as
column growth on the showers are not high enough and the
environment is a bit different. The widespread showers will
continue into the evening and overnight. We could see enough low
level clearing tonight for some fog again south, but confidence at
this point is not high for more fog. 05/Garmon
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 517 AM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Key Messages:
- Another batch of moderate to heavy rain expected through
Saturday, highest rain chances across the N Panhandle.
Thunderstorms continue along the coast through the early
afternoon.
- Brief break in the persistent rain is possible Sunday night
into Monday, however another front and round of heavier rain and
wind push across the Gulf by Tuesday.
- Increasing potential for a more impactful/strong area of low
pressure developing over the Gulf of AK Tuesday through
midweek.
SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...
A low pressure system continues to spin slowly across the
Northern Gulf this Saturday morning, sending a front into the
coastal communities with rain ongoing at Yakutat and Sitka. This
front will continue to progress inland through the afternoon as
the low transits northeastward towards the Yakutat Bay area and
weakens. Thinking entire panhandle will once again get some level
of light to moderate rain action, however best rain chances will
be across the north, along and north of a line from Sitka to
Angoon to Juneau. Rainfall totals will be significantly less than
previous days heavy rain event, around 1 inch or less over the
next 24 hours with rainfall rates peaking around 0.1" an hour.
Further south down the panhandle, with a departing separate
system southeast of Haida Gwaii into British Columbia in tandem
with the aforementioned low, seeing a bit of a break in clouds
and calm winds for areas south of Frederick Sound, with local
patchy dense fog development near Petersburg, Wrangell, and a few
communities on Prince of Wales Island. This fog has been wavering
up and down the last few hours under one mile of visibilities at
time, but will continue to monitor for a brief period of dense
fog through the early morning hours before skies and winds
increase ahead of the approaching front help dissipate.
By Saturday evening and into Sunday afternoon, higher rain
chances continue, although expecting this to be more off/on and
showery in nature with brief bouts of moderate rainfall within any
shower. However by Sunday night, still seeing increasing
potential for a brief break as a quick moving area of high
pressure moves over the panhandle into Monday morning ahead of a
developing system over the Alaska Peninsula and Anchorage.
LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...
An active fall-time weather pattern will continue across
SEAK next week. Monday will start off with a ridge of high
pressure over most of the panhandle, which could lead to fog
development, with weaker onshore flow and light showers ahead of
the next system. A progressive low and cold front will trek
across the Gulf and reach Yakutat Monday afternoon before
sweeping southeast across the panhandle Monday night into early
Tuesday before weakening and stalling across southern panhandle,
with onshore flow behind bringing steady rain into the panhandle.
Total precipitation with this initial system will remain
relatively limited, though a brief period of moderate to heavy
rain and increasing southerly winds will develop ahead of the
frontal boundary. Behind this initial system, a stronger low is
forecast to deepen rapidly (~960 mb) as it lifts northeast into
the northern Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday, stalling through midweek
before gradually weakening and dissipating on Thursday. This
strong low will quickly send another front and deeper moisture
feed toward and through SEAK Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing
moderate to heavy rain and strong gusty winds, along with severe
marine hazards. South to southeasterly winds will intensify
significantly on Tuesday, producing gale-force conditions in inner
channels such as northern Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait, with
gales (34-47 kt) and possibly storm-force winds (4855 kts) and
combined seas exceeding 20 feet along outer coastal waters, mainly
from Cape Spencer northward. By Thursday, conditions will improve
behind the frontal passage and as the low in the northern Gulf
weakens, though lingering onshore flow will sustain rain showers,
while winds and seas slowly subside.
Persistent onshore flow with mainly cloudy skies and rain will
keep temperatures cool and consistent through the period, with
daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s (low 50s possible on
Tuesday) and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.
AVIATION.../Through 12z Sunday/...
SE AK is currently separated by two different weather stories.
The northern panhandle is starting to see rain and lowered
ceilings due to an approaching low pressure system. The southern
panhandle is seeing lower visibilities, and very low ceilings, due
to fog development overnight. As the low continues to approach,
it will be the main driver of ceilings and visibilities across all
of SE AK. Currently, because of the fog, areas south of Frederick
sound are seeing IFR conditions with ceilings around 200 ft and
visibilities below 1 SM at times. Some of these southern airports
have already seen improvements due to the approaching low bringing
a higher overcast cloud deck. Until that low moves farther
eastward, and increases cloud cover, fog will remain into early
Saturday morning. Now looking at the northern panhandle, this
morning ceilings remain between MVFR to VFR with broken to
overcast Skies AoA 2500 ft. As rain continues, and the low moves
farther east, ceilings will fall to around 2000 ft. There may be
some drops in visibilities, with heaviest rain, but overall
visibility will remain around 4 to 6 SM. One thing to note this
morning is LLWS over the Yakutat area. This mornings sounding
showed 30 kt winds around 2000 ft. This LLWS is anticipated to
diminish late this morning. Similar conditions will persist into
late Saturday/early Sunday, before the low weakens allowing
conditions to improve.
MARINE...
Outer waters: A 990mb low located 120nm SE of Cape Suckling
continues to transit across the northern Gulf this morning, with
reported wave heights 9 to 11 ft, sustained wind speeds 20 to 30
kts at NDBC buoys 46082, 46083, and 46084, and isolated
thunderstorms observed across the Fairweather Grounds towards
Cross Sound. Through Saturday, this low will continue to transit
NE towards Yakutat Bay and weaken through the afternoon, with a
transition to general southwesterly flow across the Gulf and outer
coast into Saturday night. Highest forecast wave heights between
Cape Spencer to Cape Edgecumbe, 11 to 15 feet by early Saturday
afternoon as the front pushes inland, diminishing from northwest
to southeast across the Gulf as high pressure moves across the
area, widespread 5 to 8 feet by Sunday afternoon
Inside Waters: Winds remain light this morning across the inner
channels, aside from the usual trouble spots of Eldred Rock and
Scull Island reporting sustained 20 kts. However, expecting this
to change over the coming hours as a low in the Northern Gulf
sends a front across the inner channels. Winds will turn
predominately southerly by early this afternoon with the front
tracking into the NE Gulf Coast, increasing to around 15 to 25 kts
with strongest expected winds within Lynn Canal and Stephens
Passage. Winds diminish slightly into the evening and overnight
period, around 10 to 20kts within the N/S oriented channels
continuing into Sunday afternoon. Wave heights across the inner
channels remain largely 2 to 4 feet, locally higher to 5 feet
within Northern Lynn, portions of Stephens Passage near Scull
Island and between Point Ardent and Five Finger Light House.
Following suit of the diminishing wind, wave heights across the
inner channels decrease into Sunday afternoon to widespread 1 to 3
feet.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
