937
FXAK68 PAFC 241316
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The storm that has brought strong winds to portions of the Aleutians
and AKPEN has now shifted into the western Gulf with upper low now
centered just south of Kodiak Island. The associated front is now
lifting across the western Gulf bringing strong winds and widespread
rainfall over the region. Water vapor satellite imagery shows drier
air has wrapped into the center of the low with another intrusion of
dry air moving into the central Gulf. Models are is good agreement
with the upper low moving northwards over Kodiak Island before
shifting farther east into the northwest Gulf of the coast of the
Kenai Peninsula by Thursday morning. The front will race
northwards today, making it to the northern Gulf coast by this
evening. Gale force winds will accompany the front with the
potential for a period of Storm force winds this afternoon as
winds enhance just of the coast. Stout southerly winds ahead of
the front will back to easterly and increase in intensity as the
front nears. This easterly cross-barrier flow over the Kenai
Peninsula and western Chugach Mountains will lead to enhanced
downsloping on the leeward side. As such, precipitation will be
focused along the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound,
and northern Gulf coastal zones.

The southerly push of warmer air will help to bump up temperatures
and snow levels resulting in all but the highest terrain seeing
mainly rain. The western Kenai Peninsula up through the Mat Valley
will remain mainly downsloped, but may see a few of the stronger
showers work over the mountains and produce a few periods of light
rain or sprinkles. Ridgetop winds along the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains will be gusty this morning with gusts of 50 to 60 mph
before decreasing this afternoon. The upper Anchorage and Eagle
River Hillsides will see some gusty conditions today. The Copper
Basin will also see continued gusty conditions this morning before
southerly flow turns easterly.

The low will linger over the western Gulf near the Barren Islands
allowing for unsettled weather to continue for the coastal areas. A
reinforcing system drop down across the Bering before crossing the
Aleutians and becoming the new dominant low in the Gulf by the end
of the week.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gale force winds with storm force gusts will continue across the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians this morning, with
winds gradually diminishing through this afternoon. Widespread
small craft winds will continue over the next several days across
the central/eastern Bering Sea. Across Southwest Alaska, rain
chances and winds have been reduced as the low is forecast to
elongate, with most of the energy being shunted into the Gulf with
a developing triple point low. The pattern shifts with the next
low dropping south out of eastern Russia to skirt along the
Southwest Coast. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with
the low track and its speed as it travels along the coast, though
there is a good chance for precipitation along the coast and
offshore winds. A swath of cold air advects south across the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska Thursday through Saturday as the
low moves south, allowing for gales to redevelop in the
central/eastern Bering, tracking across the Pribilof Islands and
through the gaps and passes south of the Alaska Peninsula.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Active weather will continue to be the mainstay through next week.
Out east, a big low pressure system that transited the AKPEN
Friday will move into the Gulf and slowly weaken through Monday as
it remains nearly stationary. Winds across mainland and most sea
locations are not expected to be strong, through some flow through
the Barren Islands may be elevated. Weak upper level waves may
rotate through the flow bringing showers to coastal locations, but
it is starting to look like there may be a reprieve from the
nearly continuous month of rain for the rest of the eastern
region. While there may be some light showers, it is looking as
though there will be more time of no rain than rain.

Further west, low pressure will dive from Norton Sound and merge
with the aforementioned Gulf of Alaska low into the weekend.
Meanwhile, high pressure south of Shemya will slowly drift east,
slowly dipping deeper into the Pacific. Between these two will be
strong northeasterly winds that will persist through for the AKPen
and western Alaskan coast. Beyond Sunday, model guidance falls
apart as they attempt to transition Typhoon Neoguri, which is
currently east of Japan, into an extra-tropical cyclone that
advances on our western domain. Present thinking is that it should
remain south of the Aleutians Monday and Tuesday, not making an
impact for the Bering. Because of this, weather should be dry for
most of the period for mainland, with cold northerly wind keeping
temperatures down.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Weak LLWS remains possible through around 21z this
morning. However, there should be enough of a north-south pressure
gradient to keep the strongest southeasterly winds at mountain
top level away from the foothills of the Chugach Mountains and at
above 2000 ft elevation. Northerly winds at the surface of up to
10 kts will pick up at the terminal later this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&


$$

342
FXAK67 PAJK 241336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
536 AM AKDT Wed Sep 24 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday into Wednesday night/...

Key Messages:
- A gale force front will track through the eastern Gulf and
panhandle today through tonight.
- Heavy to moderate rain will move through the panhandle along the
front.
- Highest rain totals, 24 hours amounts around 2 to 3 inches,
will be near Yakutat.
- Wind and rain rates diminish late Wednesday night, ahead of the
next system expected late Thursday night.

Details:
For today, an area of low pressure will slide into the northern
Gulf of Alaska. As it moves east, it will swing a gale force front
through the eastern Gulf and SE AK. This passing front will bring
elevated wind speeds and moderate to heavy rain.

Overland winds will be strongest and associated with the passing
front. Gusts upwards of 25 to 40 mph are likely as the front moves
through your area. Wind speeds will start to increase from west to
east beginning later this morning with the elevated wind speeds
and wind gusts lasting through the afternoon and evening. As the
front exits the panhandle tonight, wind speeds will decrease from
west to east.

Rain rates will increase as the front moves through as well.
Moderate to heavy rain will arrive in the Yakutat area later this
morning with the rest of the panhandle seeing the heavier rain
rates beginning around Noon, give-or-take a couple hours.
Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be around the panhandle
this afternoon into the evening. After around 10PM, the moderate
to heavy rain rates will start to diminish with any leftover
heavier rain being mostly contained to the windward sides of
mountains.

Heaviest 24 hour rain amounts, from this morning through tonight,
will be in Yakutat at around 2 to 3 inches. The rest of the
panhandle will more likely see amounts around 0.50 to 1.5 inches.
Isolated higher amounts are possible.


.LONG TERM.../Into the weekend/...

Key Messages:
-A powerful system arrives on Friday.
-Potentially another system through the weekend.
-Rain chances continue across SE AK panhandle.

Details: The active weather pattern shows no signs of slowing
down in SE AK through the remainder of the week favorable Rossby
wave results in trough after trough digging into the panhandle,
with growing confidence that a system moving into the area on
Friday will be Storm Force in intensity.

In the wake of the gale force system on Wednesday, onshore flow
continues and keeps with it widespread convective rain showers
through Thursday, with shortwaves providing occasional periods of
heavier rainfall.

Friday will prove to be a significantly greater forecast
challenge. Operational guidance has settled on the arrival of a
another low in the panhandle, and is now anticipating storm force
intensity as it moves through the Gulf and reaches the area - with
the possibility of hurricane force wind gusts in the Gulf not
entirely impossible. The challenge is in pinning down where
exactly the low makes landfall. With ensembles still struggling to
pin down the system`s existence, the storm`s final track will
depend on the evolution of the trough it develops in. At this
time, the most likely track would most likely have landfall
anywhere between Cape Fairweather to PoW Island, with storm force
winds for the gulf and high end gales for large swaths of the
inner channels possible depending on the final track of the low.
This system could also bring a decent amount of rain to SE AK.

Another system may be possible over the weekend, but ensembles
have been nudging its parent low further south from run to run -
and its corresponding front further south as well. While the
potential for more wind and rain to the southern panhandle exist,
this system does not at time look to be anywhere near as strong as
the Friday system.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Thursday/

General VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this early
Wednesday morning as a strong front continues to push eastward
across the Gulf.

By mid morning Wednesday, anticipating deteriorating flight
conditions along the coastal TAF sites as front pushes inland,
trending MVFR or worse with CIGS AoB 2500ft developing through 18
to 20z, with inland N TAF sites like Gustavus and Juneau
following closely behind. As front pushes inland, widespread LLWS
will increase by Wednesday mid morning up to 30 to 50kts through
00z Thursday. Worst flight conditions will remain near Yakutat
through Wednesday afternoon, with sustained winds up to 25kts and
CIGS AoB 1500ft developing through 00z and SE-ly LLWS up to 40 to
50kts. LLWS will gradually diminish through 06z Thursday.

Across the southern peninsula from Sitka on south, deteriorating
flight conditions also expected through the day with the frontal
passage, beginning at Sitka by mid-morning, then spreading across
the rest of the southern peninsula through late morning and early
afternoon. Flight conditions will become MVFR, with VIS dropping
down to 3 to 5 miles and CIGS lowering to 1500 to 2500ft. Winds
and LLWS will also increase through the day, with surface gusts of
20-30+kts and LLWS up to 40-45kts.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force front is pushing through the eastern Gulf of
Alaska early this morning. This front will bring gales to the gulf
and along the coast. As the front tracks inland, south to
southeasterly winds will increase in speed to around 25 to 30 kt by
late this morning and early afternoon. Front is expected to exit the
panhandle tonight so wind speeds will decrease late tonight into
Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, confidence is growing in the development of a storm
force low pressure that will track into the eastern Gulf of Alaska
from the south on Friday. That being said, there are significant
differences in storm track so stay tuned into the forecast for
updates.

For the outer coastal waters and Gulf of Alaska, a swath of winds
with sustained speeds of up to 40 to 50 kt are possible as the
system moves through on Friday. Given the still uncertain track of
the low, the strongest winds may be anywhere from Cape Fairweather
to Dall Island but the latest model guidance, as of Wednesday
morning, has the highest winds in the southern half.

For the Inner Channels, a shift in wind directions are likely as the
low passes, followed quickly by a push of south to southwesterly
winds reaching up to strong gale force. The highest winds are most
likely to be between Clarence Strait, Southern Chatham, Sumner
Strait, and Stephens Passage, and reaching up into Icy Strait -
though some uncertainty still exists given the differing potential
storm tracks. Seas up to 7 to 10 ft are possible in many parts of
the inner channels as well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS/EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM/DS
MARINE...GJS/GFS

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