939
FXAK68 PAFC 061337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak upper level trough
exiting Southcentral as it lifts into the Interior. A shortwave
ridge is building north from the Gulf into Southcentral. Skies
have cleared across much of the region. The exceptions are the
southern and eastern Kenai Peninsula and the western Susitna
Valley where overcast skies prevail in some weak upslope flow.
Temperatures have dropped below freezing where skies have cleared
and are holding just above freezing in cloudy areas.

Meanwhile, a new large vertically stacked low has set up shop in
the northeast Pacific. Numerous shortwaves along the eastern
periphery of the larger trough are rotating northward toward the
Gulf. The leading shortwave and surface low are just about to
enter the southeastern Gulf. These will track westward across the
Gulf today through tonight as the main low in the Northeast
Pacific tracks eastward underneath it. The forecast is largely on
track for a weak front to spread north and west across the Gulf
and then dissipate before it reaches the Gulf coast Saturday. Low
elevation rain and mountain snow will spread onshore of Kodiak
Island and the north Gulf coast overnight tonight through
Saturday. Unlike storms from the past several days, precipitation
will be uniformly light. Some gusty northerly winds will affect
Kodiak Island and the western Gulf. Otherwise, winds over
Southcentral will be light.

A trough digging southward across northern Alaska Saturday through
Saturday night will lead to low level southerly flow over
Southcentral, helping to gradually advect moisture and light
precipitation inland. There could be some mixed precipitation at
the start for the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley.
However, as the atmosphere saturates expect a transition to all
snow.

A short-wave trough crossing the Bering Sea will then arrive in
Southcentral Sunday night. Model spread is large on the track and
shape of this trough. Guidance also disagrees on whether this
trough phases with the Interior Arctic trough. Nonetheless,
chances are high that this trough will act upon the moisture in
place and lead to heavier snowfall Sunday night through Monday.
Low level southwest flow favors Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley,
the eastern Susitna Valley, and the Denali Highway to Paxson
corridor up along the Alaska Range for accumulating snow. The best
window for accumulating snow looks to be Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. Stay tuned, as the uncertainty in the upper
levels leads to low confidence in snow totals at this point in
time. Meanwhile, the arrival of cooler air with the trough will
lead to lowering snow levels for coastal areas, with potential
for snow to get all the way down to sea level by Sunday night or
Monday.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...


A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
for a wintry mix of snow and freezing rain through noon today.
The wave of moisture will lift north of the area this afternoon
allowing Southwest Alaska to see mostly dry conditions through the
weekend; the one exception being possible showers along the SW
coast Sunday morning.

The main weather maker in the forecast comes in the form of a
strong low pressure system moving to just west of Kamchatka by
late Friday night. It will send its front across the western and
central Aleutians through the day Saturday with gale to storm
force winds and moderate precipitation as it marches eastward. A
vigorous trough rotating around the aforementioned parent low will
rapidly deepen and form its owned closed center as it barrels
across the Aleutian Chain near Adak and Atka early Sunday morning.
Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are likely for these communities
as it moves north into the Bering Sea. The Pribilof Islands will
also see a period of high winds Sunday evening, although the
severity of them will be greatly dependent on how far east the
storm tracks. This is followed by an even stronger low crossing
the Aleutians on Monday. Along with strong winds for most of
western Alaska and the Bering Sea, this system will draw up plenty
of moisture and send a front of moderate to heavy snow and mixed
precipitation over Southwest Alaska by Tuesday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. Also on Tuesday morning, a front moving
over the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.


Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Monday morning, the first low pressure system
appears to be located over the Central Bering, with the
best estimated position being just west or east of the Pribilof
Islands. By Monday afternoon, the low may shift northward with
some solutions bringing a slightly weakened feature into Southwest
Alaska. At the same time, a new stronger low pressure system will
have crossed the Aleutians near Adak. This has potential to
produce another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong
wind gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, model
agreement begins to degrade significantly. Some solutions exit
the low to the northern Bering by Wednesday morning, while some
solutions take the core of the low center directly over Nunivak
Island, which would promote potentially highly impactful weather
for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Greater Southwest coast beginning
as early as Tuesday morning.


Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light, variable winds are expected to
persist through the TAF period.

&&


$$

976
FXAK67 PAJK 062012
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1112 AM AKST Fri Feb 6 2026

.UPDATE...update to include the 18Z TAF issuance...
Minimal updates to the forecast this morning. Weakening warm
front pushing north of Icy Strait towards Haines and Skagway will
bring light rain this afternoon. Another front will lift north
through the panhandle will bring more widespread rain to the
panhandle this afternoon across the southern panhandle and pushing
into the northern panhandle this evening. Rain continues through
the weekend as onshore flow continues and multiple fronts/trough
and sent through southeast Alaska as a low pushes through the
southern Gulf.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog, with visibilities below 1 mile, continue over the
Icy Strait Corridor near Gustavus and Juneau early this morning.

- Active weather has returned this morning, with isolated wind
gusts up to 35 mph possible for Ketchikan, Annette Island, S
Clarence Strait, and SE Prince of Wales Island.

- After an organized band of rain this morning, wide spread rain
showers return this afternoon through the weekend.

.SHORT TERM...An organized band of precipitation continues to
move northward this morning, currently over the central panhandle
near Sitka and Angoon. No significant rain rates have occurred
with this system, with mostly light rain observed. Areas along the
Icy Strait Corridor, like Juneau and Gustavus, continue to see
areas of fog reducing visibilities below 1 SM. This fog has
slightly improved overnight, and will dissipate when the rain
moves over the area. There is a chance for fog to return after the
initial band of precipitation. If fog does return, it should
again dissipate late morning.

After a very short break, another shortwave pushes into the area
Friday, once again moving northward. This system will bring
widespread showers over SE AK. Along with widespread rain, winds
increase Friday morning. The strongest winds will be over the
southern panhandle with gusts around 35 mph being very likely with
the potential for slightly stronger gusts in isolated areas.
Precipitation then lasts through Friday into the weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through early next week/...The main
feature going into Saturday is a cold front racing up from the
south, resulting rapid increases in southerly wind gusts, briefly
cooler temperatures, and showers with rain and ice pellets. For
the marine areas, currently expecting to see fresh to strong
southerlies with possible gale force gusts associated with this
cold front. What follows this cold front is continued onshore
flow, associated with multiple shortwave troughs associated with
the longwave trough that has been responsible for the continued
warm temperatures.

Looking toward early to mid week next week sees the next proper
frontal passage for the panhandle, bringing more precipitation and
increased winds. Ultimately, most of the energy expected to move
into the SE AK area is originated from a strong Bering Sea low
pressure. As the associated front from the low in the Bering moves
eastward, the triple point looks to form into its own low center
near the northern gulf, swinging a front over the panhandle. Early
indication of the trough moving over the Coast Mountains and into
Canada could result in strong wind gusts up to 50 mph over land
areas, and gale force southeasterlies in the inner channels.
Definitely a system to watch going forward.

Looking far into the extended, ensemble guidance seems to indicate
our warm streak has come to an end, with little to hold back the
deepening cold air in Canada by late next week. While details could
change, there is definitely growing confidence in below normal
temperatures going into the second half of February.

.AVIATION.../through Saturday afternoon/...
A series of fronts and onshore flow will bring rain and
deteriorating flying conditions through the period. First front is
approaching PAHN and PAGY this afternoon, bringing MVFR VIS and
CIGs, then reaching PAYA tonight. Behind the front, low VIS and
CIGs have built back in for PAGS and PAJN, with slight
improvements this afternoon as the second front lifts in and
brings more rain, with VIS and CIGs improving to MVFR. For PASI
and the southern panhandle TAF sites, VIS and CIGs will become
MVFR this afternoon as the second front pushes in. Conditions
look to slowly deteriorate through the night and into Friday
morning, especially across the central and northern panhandle,
with VIS and CIGs possibly becoming IFR.

Winds will generally be less than 10kts, however, higher winds
10-15G20-25kt possible for PAKT and PASI through the period, and
for PAHN today. LLWS continues for central panhandle 25-35kt and
southern panhandle 30-45kt, diminishing through the night.

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Areas of fog continue over portions of the
northern inner channels this morning with visibilities below 1
nautical mile in some areas. As precipitation moves over the area,
and winds increase, this fog will dissipate. Winds this morning will
quickly increase, especially over Clarence Strait. Currently winds
over the southern inner channels are around 15 kts. These winds will
become southerly and begin to increase this morning to around 20 to
25 kts with the strongest winds over Southern Clarence into Dixon
Entrance. As a low pressure system moves further into the gulf,
northerly winds over Lynn Canal will also increase to around 15 to
20 kts. These stronger winds will then persist throughout the day
and slightly diminish overnight into Saturday.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds over the gulf will increase
this morning as a low pressure system moves northwest into the gulf
sending multiple shortwaves into the panhandle. After increasing,
winds will remain around fresh to strong breezes, with areas of near
gale force winds over Dixon entrance and in the Fairweather grounds.
Winds will slightly diminish late Friday, but periods of stronger
winds will continue into the weekend as multiple shortwaves move
into SE AK. Wave heights of 9 to 11 ft are expected to persist
through the weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB

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