461
FXAK68 PAFC 171348
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface warm front associated with a deep low near Nunivak
Island is currently in Prince William Sound. Aloft, a negatively
tilted shortwave lags behind the main surface front. The
combination of these features will bring a brief period of snow
to Anchorage early this morning, followed by the Mat-Su Valleys
later this morning into early this afternoon. So far the radar
presentation of the system is unimpressive and indicates the upper
level feature is moving through much faster than anticipated
yesterday. There are showers on the backside of this initial front
however, so snow totals may still stack up to be a few inches for
the Cook Inlet areas north through Anchorage and the Mat-Su.

Coastal areas will receive more or less continuous precipitation
over the coming days, but there should be a brief break later this
morning following frontal passage and before showers develop.
With the front now in the Sound, temperatures through Turnagain
Arm have shot up into the mid-30s with rain being observed on the
Seward Highway and through Portage. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for the Interior Kenai Peninsula, Girdwood,
Portage, Turnagain Pass and Whittier; however, now they
incorporate mixed precipitation and slushy to icy conditions on
the highways. Areas less affected by the wind (Girdwood proper)
and at higher elevations are more likely to remain snow. Valdez
will also be a tricky forecast, with any southerly wind coming
through the narrows possibly causing a mix with rain, but overall
conditions and the ambient cold airmass support up to a foot of
snow by Tuesday morning.

The forecast from Tuesday onward devolves into chaos as a
multitude of features aloft move overhead with no well defined
surface fronts or areas of low pressure until Wednesday. The main
sensible weather for Tuesday will be snow showers, which should
they train over an area lead to a quick couple of inches. The main
synoptic drivers consist of the occluding low near Nunivak Island
that will slowly move north into the Bering Strait, a broad
complex low/through that will move east across the Bering through
the forecast period, and a broadening low in the north Pacific
that will eventually make its way into the eastern Gulf by
Wednesday. The combination of these features will gradually
amplify the pattern and create generally southwest flow aloft. The
southerly input will slowly replace the cold airmass with a
warmer one, which will increase the chance for mixed or warm
precipitation types by Thursday throughout most of Southcentral.
All in all, the pattern will become increasingly active, with a
slowly warming airmass. Precipitation chances will remain high
through the week, so stay tuned to the forecast for more
information on timing, magnitude and precipitation type as the
features gradually come into focus.

-CJ


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

The strong and tightly wound up/compact low that gave blizzard
conditions to Nunivak Island and Nelson Island yesterday will
continue advancing northward to near St. Lawrence Island by
Tuesday morning. Southerly to southeasterly winds along the
mainland Southwest coast today will turn more southwesterly by
Tuesday. The strongest winds today will be felt along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and especially near Kipnuk where winds will
gust up to 40 mph at times. This stronger push of wind will also
bring elevated water levels with the 9 AM high tide. With that, a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Kipnuk through Noon
AKST today.

Temperatures through much of today will be warm enough
for rain or rain/snow mix as they hover just above freezing.
However, cold air from Russia will be dragged southward by the
departing strong low to north and move into Southwest late tonight
and Tuesday. This will allow any rain over the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast to turn to snow and for any rain across
Bristol Bay to mix with snow at times tonight into Tuesday. The
majority of moisture moving into Southwest off the Bering Sea, in
the wake of the strong low, will impact mostly the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday where a couple inches of
snowfall will be possible.

The next notable storm system moves into the western Bering
Tuesday morning as a front brings gusty southeast winds to the
Western Aleutians Tuesday morning along with moderate rain. The
front moves eastward across the Bering and Aleutians through
Wednesday morning as it makes it to the Pribilof Islands by then.
There is uncertainty with where a compact low pressure system
might spin up along this front during its journey east across the
Bering. This will have impacts on the wind field forecast across
the Bering as well as the precipitation forecast across the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.

The frontal system eventually tracks into the eastern Bering and
reaches the mainland Southwest coast by mid-Wednesday morning.
Strong southerly winds will accompany the front at the coast.
While precipitation may initially start as snow or rain/snow mix,
enough warm air may move into areas along the coast to change
precipitation over to rain. However, the level to which warmer
air works in is uncertain at this time due to timing differences
in when the parent low, which looks to be in the Bering between
the Pribilofs and St. Matthew Island Wednesday afternoon,
occludes. Yet another point of uncertainty will be the potential
for a stronger low to move into the southeastern Bering by
Wednesday night into Thursday. A northern solution would bring
more in the way of heavier precipitation across mainland Southwest
Wednesday night into Thursday while a southern solution, more
into the North Pacific, would keep the gusty winds and heavy
precipitation confined to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Stay tuned to forecast updates as the active pattern
looks to continue.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. Shortwaves rotating
around the base of the trough will allow for a strong surface low
to lift up toward Kodiak Island on Thursday shifting the main
trough axis east over mainland Alaska for Friday and Saturday.
Deterministic models vary greatly on the exact track of this
surface low, but it looks to direct a plume of deep moisture
toward the southern Alaska coast Thursday and Friday. Expect
moderate to heavy rain at sea level and heavy mountain snow for
the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the north Gulf Coast.
Gale to storm-force winds will also be associated with this low in
the surrounding marine areas before it dissipates Friday night.
High pressure will build over the Aleutians through the weekend
and increase in amplitude as it marches over western mainland
Alaska by Monday. It will quickly be followed by upper level
troughing over the western Bering with deep southerly flow and
embedded surface lows locally enhancing winds and rain across the
western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A surface warm front is moving into Prince William Sound
this morning, with an upper level shortwave passing shortly
after. So far if this band of snow (as of 4am) is what the models
were depicting as the main band, and it is very much under-
performing. However, the radar is filling in over Cook Inlet and
an area of showers is developing. If they continue to progress
east, IFR conditions will likely develop around 18Z, but given the
current trends, this is becoming increasingly unlikely.

&&


$$

727
FXAK67 PAJK 170536 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
836 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sunday is a relatively quiet weather period for
southeast Alaska, with two separate 998mb low transiting along our
coast, light winds across the inner channels, and some fog for
isolated areas. Upstream on the eastern edge of the Aleutian Arc a
storm force low is pushing north into the Bering, with shortwave
troughs rotating around the parent 500mb low being the catalyst
for propagation into the gulf through the next few days. For the
first of these systems, a secondary low and occluding front will
push east across the gulf Monday, bringing elevated wind, enhanced
seas, and precipitation into the Panhandle into Tuesday. As the
front moves across the inner channels there exists a chance to see
snow mixing down to the surface for the central and southern
region, but the dominant precip type, and impacts, remain rain.
The Icy Strait corridor offers its usual forecast challenge, with
confidence increasing for snow as one moves north and closer to
the border of Canada. Current published forecast has 2 to 3 inches
of snow for Haines Highway and 2 to 6 inches for the Klondike
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning; most snow closer to the
border. Heaviest rates look to come in through Monday afternoon.
Anticipate warmer southerly air to push through Haines/Skagway by
Tuesday morning bringing all rain to sea level areas. For the
Juneau area we could see a quick of about an inch of snow Monday
morning. A closing note for Yakutat, the current forecast has
about 0.8 inches of wet snow early Monday morning based off heavy
precip rates associated with the incoming front briefly dropping
snow levels down to the surface for a few hours. There is an 80%
chance that the northern coast will see all rain with no
accumulating snow.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week
with multiple systems and a range of possibilities for snow. The
Haines and Klondike Highways remain the likeliest suspects for
accumulating snow at this time. Communities at sea level will be
harder pressed to see any accumulating snow due to the lack of any
cold continental airmass in the lower levels. However, snow mixing
in with rain cannot be ruled out with any heavier precipitation
bringing snow levels closer to the surface, as seen with recent
systems.

For Tuesday, a short wave trough will rotate through the gulf with
some model discrepancies on the strength of two associated lows.
One of these will likely track towards Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound. The other one is expected to track towards the
panhandle, bringing more precipitation across the panhandle,
lingering over the panhandle Tuesday night. Storm totals are
expected to be lower for this system than the one earlier in the
week, with the upper elevations of the Haines and Klondike
Highways seeing another 1 to 2 inches of snow.

Moving to midweek, there is still some uncertainty over the track
of a gale force low moving into the southern gulf Wednesday. The
GEFs continues to have a midlevel ridge push slightly further
north along the gulf, which is driving the midweek system further
north along the panhandle, while both the Canadian and Euro
ensembles have this ridge being shallower and not steering the low
as far north. Therefore, there were not enough changes to warrant
deviation from the previous forecast in following the trend of
the grand ensemble. This still has the low weakening as it
approaches the panhandle between Dixon entrance and Baranof Island,
though still bringing moderate precipitation, primarily from
Frederick Sound southward. Any northward shift in the track of
this feature would lead to stronger winds pushing further north
along the inner channels as well as higher precipitation rates for
the central panhandle. Even so, the highest precipitation amounts
overall from this system would still be expected along the outer
coast of the southern panhandle with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in 24
hours for the far southern panhandle and outer coast, diminishing
to around 0.5 inches for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound.
Depending upon the northward jog of this low, the highways could
also see another small batch of snow.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday. This front is
expected to bring gale force winds to the gulf waters along with
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a majority of the
panhandle. The heaviest precipitation is expected along outer
coastal communities, with 24 hour totals from Thursday afternoon
to Friday afternoon 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts
at higher elevations and westward facing slopes. For communities
in the inner channels, storm totals look to be closer to 0.75
inches to 1.5 inches. As with earlier in the week, a lack of a
significant cold continental airmass in the inner channels will
likely limit any snow potential for communities at sea level.
Haines and Skagway cannot be ruled out, especially higher
elevations of the Chilkat Peninsula. Also, the track of the low
on Wednesday into Thursday could serve to prime the northern inner
channels for snow if it induces a northerly gradient for long
enough. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the week progresses.

AVIATION...A lot of the lower clouds that stuck around the
northern and central inner channels today lingered into the
evening as well. Currently ceilings around 1300 to 2500 ft have
been rather persistent around Haines, Skagway, Gustavus, Hoonah,
Kake, and Petersburg and are expected to at least stick around
through the night. Otherwise it is VFR conditions everywhere else
this evening. Higher clouds are starting to show up for the
northern half of the area in advance of tomorrow`s front and
northern areas will likely see precipitation starting up by
sunrise. Areas from Icy Strait northward may see some snow out of
this to at least start, especially at Haines and Skagway, and if
that happens expect vis and ceilings to drop to low MVFR or even
IFR. Areas where the precip stays as rain expect higher, but still
MVFR conditions. Except for Haines and Skagway, most areas that
see some snow to start with will likely change to rain by
afternoon and vis and ceilings will likely improve, but still be
in MVFR conditions. The southern panhandle will have to wait until
at least mid day or afternoon before the precip reaches them with
the accompanying ceiling drop to MVFR expected soon after. The
precip is expected to last into the evening before diminishing.

This front is also bringing in some gusty surface winds mainly for
the north and northeast outer coast mainly during the day. Winds
aloft over the outer coast from Baranof Island northwestward will
also be a bit frisky with SE winds up to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ft
resulting in a period of mostly low level speed shear in these
areas. The best potential for this is Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening before winds aloft and at sea level diminish.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/coastal waters):
As of this writing Sunday afternoon at 2pm local, coastal buoys
are near 11 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW and diminishing as the
responsible storm weakens. Anticipate this WSW swell to continue
early Monday morning and significant heights of 6 to 7 ft from
Cross Sound toward Dixon for a brief moment. However, easterly
winds increase to near-gale, to gale force, starting Monday
morning for Cape St. Elias, with southeasterly winds of strong
breezes to near-gales building for the remainder of our coast
into the afternoon. Associated with this frontal wind will be
southeasterly fresh seas, with underlying westerly swell, creating
confused seas of 11 to 13 ft into Monday evening focused near 8
seconds. Overnight Monday westerly swell begins to dominate, with
significant heights remaining near 12 ft along our coast at a
period near 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Gentle to moderate breezes are a welcome sight across the inside
this Sunday afternoon, with winds less than 20 knots forecasted
into the evening. Overnight Monday winds become southerly in
response to an approaching front, building to moderate breezes for
most of the inner channels by sunrise Monday. Anticipate a
frontal passage Monday afternoon into the evening, with many
channels feeling a few hours of fresh to strong breezes associated
with the front. However, current forecast reflects a few hours of
gusts reaching near gale force conditions for Lynn Canal as the
pressure gradient tightens Monday evening. A series of systems
will continue to impact the inside through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ317.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>033-053-641>644-651-
661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP

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