506
FXAK68 PAFC 261415
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A change in the weather pattern is beginning today as a series
of fronts move into the Gulf of Alaska. This is a result of the
upper level flow becoming southerly which will bring in warmer
temperatures through the remainder of the week. The first front is
fairly weak and is already along the north Gulf coast early this
morning. This will begin the warm-up and precipitation will
increase throughout the day there. Another front is making its way
over Kodiak today which will keep in the rain and stiff easterly
winds. Due to the main low complex associated with these fronts
remaining over the AK Peninsula and Aleutians into tomorrow, these
fronts will not plow northward into Southcentral as much as they
will each warm it up a little more and bring in bouts of
precipitation and stronger winds.

With warming temperatures, precipitation type will become a
significant weather challenge both for forecasters and Holiday
travelers. In particular, Turnagain Arm through Turnagain Pass
should see snow as the main precip type the next day or two, but
an increasing chance for rain as the week progresses. Temperatures
along the Seward Highway should warm above freezing by tomorrow,
but temperatures aloft are right at the cusp of that rain/snow
mix. Therefore, there could be areas of rain in places along the
highway with other areas experiencing moderate to heavy snowfall.
This area in the Kenai Mountains is probably the most challenging
part of the forecast so be sure to check on the latest forecast
before traveling through that area the next few days. Lower
elevations of the eastern Kenai Peninsula are much more
straightforward and should see the switch to rain by Thursday
morning.

For the lee side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains, easterly
winds will allow for efficient downsloping to occur in the
Anchorage Bowl and eastern Kenai Peninsula with this storm;
limiting precipitation amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A series of troughs/fronts are expected to push north and west
into Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea from the North Pacific
over the next couple of days. Southwest Alaska can be expected to
see a bit of a warming trend, though overnight temperatures will
stay near or below freezing in Bristol Bay and below freezing
elsewhere across the Southwest Mainland. Precipitation is expected
to spread into Bristol Bay this morning, with the bulk of
expected precipitation confined to the Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains
and Dillingham west to the Western Capes. Precipitation will
likely remain as mostly snow, with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches
possible from Dillingham to Alekagnik through Thursday morning,
and 2 inches or less for inland Bristol Bay. Iliamna and King
Salmon will be the warmest areas, allowing for transitions from
snow to rain and back to snow as temperatures fluctuate below and
above freezing. As such, there is a small chance during the
transition period for precipitation to briefly become a wintry mix
of ice pellets or freezing drizzle.

The trough continues weakening as it tracks into the Kuskokwim
Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley. While temperatures will warm,
they are expected to remain below freezing. While drier conditions
are expected for both the Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim
Valley, brief pockets of light snow showers are possible. Another
trough will lift across the area for Thursday and warmer
temperatures should continue for Bristol Bay. King Salmon is
expected to transition to rain in the afternoon while Dillingham
and the interior will be in the mid 30s with a rain and snow mix.
By this weekend, temperatures could top out in the upper 30s and
low 40s in the Bristol Bay area. The Kuskokwim will continue to
stay in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This trend looks to continue
into next week. Meanwhile, cold air and northerly flow will be
pushed over to the western Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

A signal of warmer than average temperatures and periods of heavy
precipitation continue to be seen in the long range model
guidance. Upper level ridging becomes increasingly amplified this
weekend over the Gulf into Southcentral as a deep upper level
longwave trough situates itself over the Aleutians and North
Pacific. The global models do all show a relatively deep surface
low moving northward from the North Pacific and tracking generally
north to northeastward as it enters the western Gulf. The exact
placement of the upper trough/ridge will be key in storm track,
where fundamental differences in the track of the low can have
huge implications on what kind/levels of impacts areas from the
Alaska Peninsula to Kenai Peninsula will see from this system. As
the low draws moisture in from the south, there will be a fair
amount of warm advection moving across parts of the Southcentral
coast and for some areas inland. It is possible some areas at sea
level warm above freezing for a time this weekend, which
introduces the chance of mixed precipitation types and even plain
rain for some areas, which could cause some travel issues. Snow
levels will also be increasing this weekend as well with
anomalously warm temperatures. Heavy precipitation looks to be the
main hazard for now this weekend, with much less confidence on
winds being impactful.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Northerly winds increase today at the terminal but
generally remain below 10 knots and persist through Thursday.
Ceilings are likely to remain above 5000 ft for the duration of
the TAF period. There is potential for increasing wind shear
beginning tonight as southeasterly winds at 2000 ft or higher
begin to increase to 40 knots. This low-level wind shear
potential lasts into Thursday. There are also some timing
differences with a front lifting across the terminal Thursday into
Friday, which introduces increasing chances of overrunning snow
showers as early as Thursday. This leads to increasing potential
for ceilings/visibility to drop to MVFR in passing showers, though
the probability is considered low at this time.

Quesada

&&


$$

969
FXAK67 PAJK 260655
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
955 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain for the southern panhandle diminishes on Wednesday as a
system departs.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of the
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
the panhandle.

- A dry Thanksgiving Day for most of the panhandle, with the
potential exceptions of the NE Gulf Coast (Yakutat, Elfin
Cove, and Pelican).

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/

A pattern change is in the air for much of SE AK. While rain
continues across the southern panhandle as a front moves in, drier
conditions have arrived for the northern half of the area. In the
wake of the front`s departure on Wednesday, these drier conditions
will spill southward, bringing with them a welcome break in the
weather for the Thanksgiving Holiday for much of the area.

The upper level longwave trough which has been moving system
after system into the panhandle, has begun to weaken, with systems
temporarily being redirected away from SE AK. One final shortwave
which is moving into the southern panhandle will stall out and
disintegrate through Wednesday, though the chance of some showers
reaching as far as the Icy Strait Corridor cannot be entirely
ruled out through then. Some patchy fog will form Tuesday night
across the central and northern panhandle as skies in these areas
begin to clear.

As chances of PoP diminish through Wednesday for the southern
panhandle, outflow winds will continue to build, and colder
temperatures are expected to linger through Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Day itself will be dry for most locations, with the
exception of Yakutat and portions of the NE Gulf Coast (Pelican
and Elfin Cove) where chances of PoP increase through the latter
half of the day as a warm front sideswipes these areas, though
outflow winds will prevent it from reaching the rest of SE AK.
Clearer skies and said outflow winds will also join forces to
contribute to cooler overnight low temperatures, with lows
dropping into the 20s for many locations, especially those in the
northern half of the panhandle.

Main changes to the forecast were to refine the strength and
timing of the outflow winds (which look to be weaker than
anticipated on Thursday), alongside increasing chances of PoP for
portions of the NE Gulf Coast and Yakutat for Thanksgiving Day.

.LONG TERM...
By Friday a series of disturbances will setup to impact the
region through the start of next week; the first being a weak
shortwave trough at 500mb reaching Kodiak by Friday morning. This
feature will drive a gale force front and some moisture into the
northern gulf and begin breaking down the outflow pattern. The
second feature further upstream in the Pacific, an extensive storm
force low, will tap into equatorial moisture, with the parent
500mb low beginning to steer a weak-to-moderate atmospheric river
toward the northern coast by Sunday and additional fronts. The
primary forecast challenge in the mid-range has been break down of
outflow and timing of subsequent wind shifts allowing warmer
temperatures to push into the Panhandle. These points in question
have drastic implications to precip type at the surface for the
central Panhandle. The published forecast has leaned heavily on
warmer air at the surface, with no snow accumulations for
communities outside of Haines and Skagway. The current forecast
will need to be watched closely over the next 48 hours to see how
cold surface temperatures can become and reassessing timing of
precip and wind shift. Another item to watch is significant warm
air advection Sunday into Monday, where freezing levels look to
rise above 3,000ft for the entire region. Dense and wet snow this
weekend in the mountains is expected, becoming moderate to heavy
rainfall by Monday which could exacerbate river response in the
central and northern region. At this time no significant flooding
is expected.

To sum up, current forecast confidence for the communities along
the Icy Strait corridor is rain/snow mix Friday becoming moderate
to heavy rain Sunday with no snow accumulation. If temperatures
are slightly colder than expected, there could be a period of
wet/heavy snow that impacts Hoonah, Gustavus, and Juneau.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Thursday/...For the northern 2/3 of the
panhandle, CIG & VIS conditions will generally stay in the VFR
category through the TAF period, aside from some patchy FG
tonight, which may temporarily bring VISs & CIGs down to the
IFR/LIFR category range. Northerly outflow SFC winds from a
tightening north to south SFC pressure gradient between an area of
higher pressure to the north & lower pressure to the south will
make things a bit breezy for the extreme northeastern Panhandle,
particularly areas around northern Lynn Canal, like the PAGY &
PAHN areas. This northerly outflow event is on the weaker side in
terms of magnitudes when compared to many. An area of low pressure
is approaching the southern panhandle, moving from southwest to
northeast. It will pass just to the south of the panhandle, moving
over the Dixon Entrance area on Wednesday morning while
continually weakening. It will keep CIGs lowered into the MVFR
category & keep SFC winds increased through the morning for PAKT &
PAKW via its enhanced SFC pressure gradient. For the south,
conditions will improve into the VFR category Wednesday afternoon
as the aforementioned low weakens & moves into British Columbia.
LLWS magnitudes of up to around 30 kt out of a generally easterly
to southeasterly direction centered up at around 2 kft are in
store into tonight mainly for southern panhandle areas like PAKT &
PAKW.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Waveheights subside through Tuesday
night into Wednesday, diminishing from 9-14 ft to 7-9 feet, as a
decaying system in the southern panhandle is replaced by
strengthening outflow winds. These outflow winds will be
(relatively) on the lower side, and so while stronger plumes of
wind may reach into the Gulf, expect these to be relatively
confined in nature. Winds begin to strengthen from W to E by
Wednesday night into Thursday as a system moves into the Eastern
Gulf before sliding northward


Inside Waters: Strengthening outflow winds through Tuesday night,
with Taku Inlet, and other outflow areas increasing to 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will experience sharply varying wind
directions through Tuesday night as a low battles the outflow
winds for prevailing flow direction until said low near Haida
Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly around 3 to 4 ft Wednesday and
Thursday, though outflow areas and Lynn Canal will see seas of 5
ft. as the winds increase. Outflow conditions weaken by Thursday
night as the pressure gradient goes more parallel.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS

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