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980
FXAK69 PAFG 220002
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
402 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An occluded low near Bristol Bay is expected to remain stationary
through the first portion of the weekend. Shortwave troughs
associated with the low will move in from the south, then
southeast. Southerly flow looks to continue, resulting in gusty
winds for the passes through Friday morning. Thunderstorm
potential is expected to increase Friday and continuing through
the weekend, highest probabilities occurring Saturday.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Increase chance for thunderstorms beginning Friday with chances
increasing to around 30% in the Central Interior by Saturday.
- Seasonably normal temperatures are expected to continue across
the Interior through much of the week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery conditions are expected along the Lower Yukon and Yukon
Delta regions throughout the week. These showers will be mostly
rain, especially nearer the Western Interior, but some periods
of snow and light wintry mix are possible near St. Lawrence
Island and the Bering Strait Coast.
- Increased thunderstorm potential around 15% for Friday through
the weekend, primarily for the Middle Yukon Valley and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley, with highest chances increasing to 30% on
Saturday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Gusty northeasterly winds will gradually increase, to around 25
and 35 mph, along the Arctic Coast over the next couple of days.
Gradient will begin to lighten by Friday night.
- Diurnal showers along the southern portion of the Brooks Range
are expected to continue through the week. Little to no
precipitation is expected for the North Slope.
- Chilly temperatures persist with highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens along the North Slope. A gradient of temperatures
across the Brooks Range with highs in the 50s to near 60 along
the southern slopes and low 40s for the northern slopes.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A stationary weak front is expected to develop near the Brooks
Range and Yukon Flats from a shortwave moving up from the south
through tonight. In its wake, tight gradients near the Alaska
Range will result in continued wind gusts up to 55 mph through
Isabel Pass. The gusty winds will taper off throughout the day,
Friday, as the low over Bristol Bay quickly fills in.
In addition to the low weakening throughout the day, Friday, a
shortwave will track eastward across the gulf of Alaska, reaching
the southern portions of the Alaska Panhandle by Saturday morning.
This track of the shortwave will be closely monitored as it has
the potential to set up East to Southeast Flow, aloft, across the
Central and Eastern portions of the Interior, favorable for
scattered thunderstorms. Instability will begin to increase
Friday, setting up a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the
Central and Northern Interior during the afternoon. As the
trough progresses further eastward in the Gulf and easterly flow
set up across the Interior, this will transition winds aloft to
southeasterly, with inverted shortwave troughs moving from
southeast to northwest. A thermal trough is expected to develop
for the aforementioned area, with modest vorticity advection aloft
from the passing inverted trough aloft, resulting in scattered
thunderstorms. Latest guidance shows the greatest potential to be
along a line from the Upper Kuskokwim to around Bettles,
spreading across the White Mountains and into portions of the
Fortmile Country. Broad troughing will continue across the
southern portions of the state into the mid weekend. In addition,
models are hinting at an upper- level ridge strengthening over the
Yukon Valley. Both of these will continue to support the chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Interior through
the start of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The greatest area of concern this week is from Delta Junction south,
where are increasing through the afternoon to 55 mph, continuing
through the night, and weakening during the morning hours. Not
much recovery is expected due to persistent downsloping winds.
Min RHs are expected to be 20% on Friday for the Tanana Valley.
While Red Flag conditions are possible, probabilities of
occurrence are around 20% at this time. Friday is a drier day
overall across the Interior with isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms, though the coverage will be far less than Thursday.
Saturday and Sunday continues the dry trend in terms of low min
RHs (20 to 30% in the valleys), but thunderstorms will be isolated
to scattered across the Interior and there is a chance that
Saturday is the most active thunderstorm day in the Interior so
far this year. Sunday looks to be another active thunderstorm day,
but the threat does shift northeast from Fairbanks to the Kobuk
Valley eastward to the Al-Can Border. Any thunderstorm can come
with lightning, brief heavy rain, small hail and erratic wind
gusts. To wrap it up, expect wetting rain north of the White
Mountains today, a drier day on Friday, then active thunderstorm
days this weekend with temperatures remaining relatively cool and
RHs near critical values in the valleys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Yukon River: The breakup front on the Yukon has passed Russian
Mission. As of 12AM AKDT Thursday, a sharp increase in water level
was recorded near Pilot Station, indicating that a release is
possible. Then, as of 11am AKDT Thursday, an ice jam 10 miles
downstream of Russian Mission has been confirmed to be releasing,
according to the River Water team. Further information is needed
regarding the speed of release and There is another minor ice jam
downstream from Holy Cross, with water levels remaining mostly
steady. The most extensive flooding is occurring at Holy Cross and
in the lowlands between Holy Cross and Anvik.
Flood warnings remain in effect for Russian Mission, Holy Cross, and
Grayling. A Flood Advisory is in effect for Anvik. Extensive
flooding of the lower portion of Holy Cross community was occurring
Tuesday, including the Holy Cross runway. Water remains high on the
Yukon upriver from the breakup front due to snowmelt and the Yuki
Ice Jam release. As of noon Wednesday the River Watch Team reported
that the river slows down around Anvik and that the backwater from
the jam seems to have extended to Anvik.
As the ice jam releases, there will likely be a period of water
level rises and dense ice runs at Russian Mission for at least 24
hours as the backwater flows past there. Downriver of the ice jam
towards Marshall the ice is rotten and river levels are low.
Innoko: Reports from Shageluk indicate that the Innoko River has
begun to backup due to high water in the area. Currently not
expecting significant impacts.
Chena: The Chena River continues to respond to warmer temperatures
with higher elevation snowmelt leading to rivers running higher than
normal, but likely remaining below action stage.
Additional Information: Visit www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
hydro information.
Please report observed flooding to local emergency services, law
enforcement, or to the National Weather Service when you can do so
safely..
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Most likely temperatures remain similar to this week across the
Interior and North Slope and the larger variance will lie within
wind strength and precipitation early next week. Going into the next
work week, a strong low looks to move into the Bering Sea near
Bristol Bay. Diverging solutions in ensemble models can be
simplified into two solutions. The first, at roughly 60% likelihood,
shows the low become vertically stacked near Bristol Bay, with
persistent southerly flow aloft. This would result in strong wind
gusts for Isabel and Windy Pass, possible elevated fire weather
concerns for Delta Junction, along with possible showers and
thunderstorms outside of downsloping areas. The other solution, 40%
likelihood, shows a progressive system, moving the trough into the
northern gulf. This solution would result in additional thunderstorm
chances for the interior, with less windy conditions in the passes.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Flood Watch for AKZ826-830.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Twombly
Bianco - Fire Wx
812
FXAK68 PAFC 220025
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Light rain showers will persist across Southcentral through the
end of the week, with the exception of the northern Copper River
Basin, which will remain mostly dry. Southerly gap winds are
expected to recur on Friday for Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the
Copper River Valley. Conditions overnight may become drier for
Anchorage, the western Kenai peninsula, and the Mat Valley, though
rain showers are expected to return on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...
An occluded low pressure system off the coast of Southwest Alaska
continues the unsettled and showery pattern across the region.
Gusty westerly winds across the Eastern Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula. The low will slowly approach the coast and will
stall out south of Nunivak Island tonight. This will allow for
continued rain showers over the mainland over the weekend. Also,
gap winds will decrease in response to movement of the low.
Meanwhile, weak flow will set up over the Bering, which means
weaker winds and lower precipitation chances will prevail through
the weekend. On Sunday, a strong low will move south of the
Aleutians, causing gale force winds, potentially storm force
gusts, and precipitation to the Adak area. The low will rise into
the Bering by Monday, likely bringing gusty winds and
precipitation to the rest of the Aleutians. By Saturday afternoon
and beyond for inland areas of Southwest, convective shower and/or
isolated thunderstorm potential will increase again given the
breakdown of stratiform cloud cover in the area.
-CL
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...
Minimal changes in the long term forecast as the current pattern
of broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf
continues to remain in place. Several shortwaves rotating around
the upper low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into
the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern. The upper
longwave trough slowly begins to shift to the east over the
Mainland and Gulf by mid to late next week.
By Monday morning, the biggest focus will continue to be on the
strong system lifting north out of the North Pacific and reaching
the Aleutian Chain. Deterministic models have this low peaking in
strength around the time it reaches the central and eastern
Aleutians, with strong and gusty winds expected across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday into Tuesday.
This system begins its weakening trend and continues its track
into Bristol Bay early next week before pivoting into the Gulf by
the middle of the week. Gusty southeasterly winds along the front
preceding the low can be expected across Southwest Alaska and the
western Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation will accompany the
gusty winds as it overspreads much of the southern Mainland, with
heavy precipitation expected along upslope areas of the Kuskokwim
Mountains and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western
Prince William Sound.
By mid to late next week, the longwave trough axis shifts east
from the Bering into the Gulf, with low pressure lingering in the
Gulf and unsettled conditions for the southern Mainland through
the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight along with
isolated showers in the vicinity of the terminal. Winds this
afternoon will be mainly from the southeast and gusty, with gusts
approaching 35 mph at times. However, there may be times through
mid afternoon that the southeasterly wind diminished and becomes
light and variable, result in periods of LLWS as winds aloft
remain southeasterly.
Scattered showers are possible overnight into early to mid morning
Friday with ceilings falling to MVFR. Although ceilings are
expected to lift back to VFR, and eventually to around 5,000 ft,
scattered showers will remain around the terminal through Friday
evening. Southeasterly winds will diminish overnight into Friday
morning, will once again increase by late Friday morning...albeit
not to the magnitude expected this afternoon and evening.
-TM
&&
$$
757
FXAK67 PAJK 220001
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
-Lingering rain showers, heaviest over the northern half of the
area, through the remainder of the week
-A weak front moves across the north on Friday, with a low moving
across south/central SE AK beginning Friday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../ through Saturday night / A frontal band moves
across the gulf to the panhandle starting tonight and to Friday
afternoon where the front will stall. A broad area of showers form
over the gulf and then will move onshore for Saturday. The shower
activity will continue and taper off though Saturday night. A
surface ridge is building over the gulf Saturday evening and this
will be tracking inland will start to working to suppress the
showers. A low will be tracking east across the north
pacific/southern gulf, this low is anticipated to stay south of
the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...
The polar jet remains impressive for this time of year, steering
an active storm track along the Aleutians. Digging into long
range guidance, all ensembles continue to trend to a deeper trough
by Sunday as a system undercuts the Gulf, with increasing
confidence in at least southerly gale force conditions for Hecate
Strait. The primary challenge this afternoon is the potential
northward expansion of gales into Dixon but there exists
substantial variation in location and intensity of the forecasted
low. For now, the published forecast will continue to highlight at
least near-gale force southeast winds for Dixon Entrance by
Sunday afternoon with peak winds overnight into early Monday.
Most concern for mariners along and south of Sumner Strait. As
this first system pushes into the western sea board Sunday, an
impressive storm force low will move along the Aleutians,
generating very large southwesterly swell which move into our
coast by Tuesday/Wednesday. Some wave guidance suggests 12 to 14
ft near 18 to 20 seconds out of the near 230 to 240 degrees true.
Mariners navigating along our coast and ocean entrances should
monitor the forecast moving through the weekend and be aware of
this threat.
Touching on rain potential and the holiday weekend, rain will
largely fall apart Sunday night for the north and central
Panhandle (areas north of Frederick Sound), with Sundays low
moving into Haida Gwaii responsible for some rain in the south.
Simply put, not so bad for the north and central Panhandle. Likely
wet and windy for the south. Later in the week the strong system
along the Aleutians will steer more moisture into the Gulf and
Southeast, but at this time overall QPF amounts remain within
ranges of what we typically experience this time of year. Would
anticipate a wetter week next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
A frontal passage will move south across the panhandle late
tonight through early morning, followed by ridging and potential
fog with no LLWS concerns expected. Northern sites will likely
face intensified winds and variable flight categories as the front
moves through. Yakutat is forecasted to see persistent rain, a
northerly wind shift gusting to 20kts, and late morning
deterioration to low MVFR/IFR. PAGY and PAHN anticipate southerly
gusts (25-30kts) and morning showers with MVFR CIGs. Within the
Icy Strait corridor, PAJN and PAGS will see lower CIGs, localized
fog, and early rain, with PAGS potentially dropping to 1500ft.
CIGs along the outer coast should lower to 1500ft by early
morning as well, with rain and gusts moving in the front around
15Z. Southern sites will transition from VFR to MVFR around 06Z as
showers start to arrive, with steadier rain by 18Z. These sites
will be mostly MVFR with possible IFR CIGs and VISBYs due to the
marine layer and showers are expected to move in late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Inside Waters (Inner Channels): Through Friday morning, for
northern Lynn Canal, expect southerly winds to around 25 kt &
significant wave heights to around 5 ft due to a tightened
pressure gradient between a low over the Canadian Yukon & ridging
to the south. These winds will diminish to 15 kt or less with
waves of 3 ft or less with a more relaxed pressure gradient by the
weekend & into early next week. For the rest of the Inner
Channels, primarily expect winds of less than 20 kt & seas of
around 4 ft or less through the weekend & into early next week.
Outside Waters (Eastern Gulf of Alaska): A weak frontal system
will push through the eastern gulf tonight through Friday evening,
increasing sustained winds over that entire region to around 20
kt. Winds will increase up to around 25 kt for an area between Icy
Bay & Cape St. Elias from the shoreline out to about 20 nm
offshore late tonight into Friday afternoon associated with a
barrier jet as the aforementioned front pushes through.
Significant wave heights should stay between 6 & 10 ft through
Friday night with the highest values to the south. Winds increase
to around 25 kt for the SE gulf for the latter half of the weekend
into next week as a low pressure system marches toward the
southern panhandle, increasing seas to between 7 & 11 ft over that
area for that timeframe.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>643-652-661>664-671-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...Bezenek
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