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569
FXAK69 PAFG 262310
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKST Thu Feb 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of well below normal temperatures continues into
the first week of March for a majority of Northern Alaska. High
pressure at the surface keeps this arctic airmass in place with
daily morning lows at or below -40F for the Interior. Areas right
along the coast in Western Alaska may remain somewhat milder as the
core of the arctic airmass shifts east; however still expect
temperatures remaining near or below zero into next week. While the
majority of the region remains cold and dry, focus shifts to the
Northeast Arctic Coast where a series of fronts will bring an
extended period of blizzard conditions beginning Friday. This
initial front may increase high clouds for the eastern half of
Alaska during the day Saturday, briefly moderating temperatures.
Watching the Brooks Range passes this weekend for potentially
hazardous wind chills below around -60F as northerly winds increase
with the frontal passage. Reinforcing shots of arctic air with these
incoming fronts keeps the core of the arctic air across the Eastern
half of the state through almost the middle of next week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Blowing and drifting snow continues to reduce visibility and
lead to treacherous travel conditions for the Richardson Hwy
near Isabel Pass.
- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues into
the weekend. Interior valleys will drop into the -30s and -40s
with hill tops above 1500ft dropping into -20s to 30s for
morning lows each day. This is 30+ degrees below normal!
- High temperatures rebound each afternoon to -10s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues into
the weekend. Low will reach the -20s to -30s below along the
coast, -30s and -40s in Interior Valleys and -15F to -30F below
above 1500ft.
- High temperatures rebound in the afternoons to single digits
below zero along the coast and around -10F to -20F below zero in
the Interior.
- Cold air will begin to be eroded away this weekend but
temperatures will remain around 20 to 30 degrees below normal.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the NE Arctic Coast with conditions
deteriorating by Friday Morning. Expect gusts up to 50 mph in
Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, and 65 mph in Point Thomson and Kaktovik.
- Winds increase through the Brooks Range this weekend, blowing
snow and dangerously cold wind chills are possible. Cold Weather
Advisories have been issued for the Brooks Range Passes Saturday
into Sunday.
- Temperatures remain cold, around 15 to 30 degrees below normal
through Saturday, with milder temperatures possible on Sunday.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A deep Arctic airmass remains over Alaska with widespread
temperatures at or below -40F earlier this morning. To give an
idea how cold this airmass is, using the SPC Sounding Climatology
webpage, the coldest ever 850mb temperature on the morning of
February 26th is -31.2C... Fairbanks 00z and 12Z soundings from
the past day had 850mb temperatures of -28C to -30C! Despite it
being late in season and the sun angle quickly rising, these near
record low level temperatures and a strong surface high will result
in rapid temperature drops each night into the -30F to -45F range,
with the potential for a few -50F reports in the coldest interior
valleys. Record or near record cold temperatures are possible,
but record temperatures are currently in the -50s for the next few
days, which most likely won`t occur in Fairbanks thanks to
increased surface heating as the sun rises. Nonetheless,
widespread -30s and -40s low temperatures are expected through
the weekend.
Outside of the arctic air, focus shifts to the NE Arctic Coast where
numerous fronts coming in from the north will result in an extended
period of blizzard conditions. Went ahead and issued Blizzard
Warnings for the Northeast Arctic Coast beginning Friday morning and
persisting into the weekend as numerous fronts rotate around an
intense 465dm upper low over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The
first front arrives Friday morning with a 50-60 kt barrier jet
developing along the NE Arctic Coast. This is a classic set up for
an extended period of Blizzard Conditions in this region. Issued
warnings as far west as Nuiqsut, where Blizzard conditions are
expected Friday into Saturday. Further east toward Point Thompson
and Barter Island, Blizzard conditions may persist through Monday
March 2nd as additional fronts rotate in from the north and impact
the coast. Lower confidence exists for Deadhorse and points west for
Blizzard Conditions the latter half of the weekend as the strongest
barrier jet may remain to the east.
As these polar fronts shift southward, a few impacts may be seen
across the Brooks Range and potentially into the Eastern Interior.
Low and mid level pressure gradient builds up on the north side of
the Brooks Range by Friday night, resulting in windy conditions at
Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass with northerly gusts to 40 mph through
Monday night. Wind chill values colder than 60 below zero are
possible from the Brooks Range to the Coast. Cold Weather Advisories
have been issued for the Eastern Brooks Range including Atigun pass
Saturday into Sunday.
Guidance has been consistent in showing upper level moisture
associated with this polar front making its way southward into the
Central and Eastern Interior on Saturday. Depending on the timing of
arrival of these higher clouds, some areas in the Eastern Interior
may see quick temperature rises from the -40s to -20s. While there
is high confidence in the extended stretch of cold weather, Saturday`s
temperature forecast has the lowest confidence mainly due to the
incoming clouds during the day. For now, keeping lows in the
Central and Eastern Interior in the -40s while highs reach the
-10s to -20s, but do want to mention that high temperatures could
potentially exceed guidance if these clouds are thick enough.
There is higher confidence that the interior will clear out again
Saturday night behind the front with its reinforcing shot of
colder air with another night of widespread -40s.
The West Coast and Western Interior remains cold as well, but
temperatures likely won`t reach record values. Temperatures look to
moderate on Sunday and Monday as milder air from a ridge over the
Western Bering moves in. This may also tighten a pressure gradient
bringing stronger northerly winds, especially through the Bering
Strait.
Otherwise, no precipitation is expected for most of the Interior
or West Coast for the foreseeable future.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended stretch of well below normal temperatures continues
into the first week of March. While the upper trough over the
state pushes into Northern Canada and weakens, a secondary upper
low over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago retrogrades closer to the
state, bringing a reinforcing shot of arctic air to Northern and
Eastern Alaska Sunday through mid next week. The core of the arctic
airmass with 850mb temperatures below -30C, becomes centered over
Northwest Canada and Eastern Alaska this weekend and Monday. While
the majority of the state will remain well below normal, coldest
temperatures remain in the Central and Eastern Interior while
temperatures moderate somewhat in Western Alaska with highs nearing
zero and lows still in the teens to 20s below zero. Eastern Interior
valleys likely have several more days with low temperatures at or
below -40F, potentially lasting into the first week of March. Still
expecting large diurnal ranges in this clear, cold, and dry airmass
as the increasing sun angle allows for afternoon temperature rises
into the negative single digits and teens.
The NE Arctic coast will be dealing with an extended period of
blizzard conditions through at least Monday as several fronts rotate
around a deep low in the Canadian Arctic. Blizzard Warnings from
Point Thompson to Barter Island go through Monday morning with
conditions expecting to improve into Tuesday. Currently the Blizzard
Warning for Deadhorse and Nuiqsut go through Saturday morning with a
lull in the worst conditions expected through the day. There is the
potential for addition blizzard or near blizzard conditions for this
area and points west along the Arctic Coast Sunday into Monday, but
confidence is lower if actually blizzard conditions will be met.
Nonetheless, additional periods of accumulating snow and blowing
snow are expected into early next week as additional fronts rotate
south into the coast, mainly east of Utqiagvik.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850-851.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ804.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Gale Warning for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&
$$
CRM
087
FXAK68 PAFC 270106
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 PM AKST Thu Feb 26 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...
A cold and blustery day continues for much of Southcentral this
afternoon. While most products have been cancelled or allowed to
expire, gusty gap winds within a cold airmass will prevail into
tonight and tomorrow. Thompson Pass refuses to calm down and
recently gusted to 76 mph. Winds into the Valdez airport remain
elevated with gusts as high as 45 mph while in town winds are more
variable with gusts ranging from 25 to 30 mph. Through Seward
into Resurrection Bay winds are gusting from 25 to 35 mph. All
high wind warnings and advisories have come to an end but Thompson
Pass in particular will bear close monitoring. One of the bigger
challenges with the wind forecast has been Palmer and the Mat-
Valley. Yesterday a Mat-Valley wind did develop during the evening
hours on Wednesday, with a lone gust or two as high as 60 mph
Wednesday night. However, winds promptly shutoff during the early
morning hours this morning and only occasional gusts of 20 to 35
mph have been observed. More surprisingly has been the variable
wind direction, with gusts out of the east, south, and southwest.
Regardless of the direction, overall winds are expected to
gradually trend down tonight through early tomorrow morning.
Across Southcentral, cold temperatures will linger into tonight
with morning lows on Friday morning possibly even colder than
today`s low. However, a lack of stronger winds on Friday morning
should preclude colder wind chills. Clear skies will allow for
more efficient radiational cooling in places where winds remain
calmer, leading to temperatures at or below zero.
Looking ahead, the next trough lifts into the western Gulf over
the weekend. While there are varying differences between forecast
models, the GFS and NAM in particular are in agreement with a
winter storm unfolding over Kodiak Island late Saturday into
Sunday. The pattern does look favorable with a moderately strong
shortwave lifting just south and east of Kodiak Island. The track
would keep colder temperatures and gusty northeasterly winds
directed into northeastern Kodiak Island with North Pacific
moisture supporting moderate to heavy snow. Keep an eye on the
forecast as the details are ironed out. A Winter Storm Watch or
Blizzard Watch may be needed later this evening or on Friday if
models come into better agreement and forecast confidence
increases.
-BL
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Sunday)...
Very cold weather remains in place across much of Southwest Alaska,
extending through to the Pribilof Islands, the AK Peninsula, and
even to Unalaska and some of the Aleutian Islands before
moderating some at Atka, Adak, and farther west. Over the past
day, the Kuskokwim region experienced temperatures on the order of
30 degrees below the climatological averages for this time of
year, with Bristol Bay and the AK Peninsula region values close to
that as well. As a result, a cold weather advisory remains in
place for another day for the Kusko given the frigid temperatures.
The general synoptic regime driving all this will remain in place
for a few days as high pressure remains across the western Bering
and far eastern Russia, driving cold northerly flow down through
much of mainland Alaska and into the central and eastern Bering Sea.
Flow becomes more zone towards the Andreanof islands between the
aforementioned high pressure and a low in the North Pacific. Strong
easterly winds of gale-force intensity, gusting to storm-force,
current extends from just west of Nikolski through Atka, Adak, and
to near Shemya. Coincident with this is the frontal zone, and
precipitation extending over much of the area. A winter weather
advisory remains in place for Atka where temperatures continue to
hover near 32, with winds gusting to near 50 mph.
As we progress into Friday, a more substantial shortwave trough
and the surface trough / warm front will push north towards Dutch
Harbor, Unalaska, and Nikolski, bringing snow to these islands.
There remains some uncertainty with accumulation as models have
backed off slightly, but a general range of 3 to 6 inches still
seems likely depending on location. Given strong easterly flow, an
extended period of blowing snow and reduced visibility is also
likely.
Over the weekend, the aforementioned western Bering / eastern Russia
ridge of high pressure will retrograde enough such that another
trough is expected to dig into mainland AK and the central/eastern
Bering sea, reinforcing both the cold air and strong winds across
the region. The air doesn`t look quite as cold as the current, but
will keep temperatures below average for days to come.
-Brown
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Monday through
Thursday)...
As the work week begins, an upper low from the Bering will be
situated over the western Aleutians. This low will increase
chances for light snow as it moves southwards into the North
Pacific through Tuesday. While this low moves southwards, a
secondary low from the North Pacific moves into the Gulf of Alaska
Monday night. Some light precipitation may reach the coast,
though at this time chances look to be low as models keep this
system well to the south. Starting Tuesday, the low south of the
Aleutians will begin to move east. Models disagree with
positioning relative to the Aleutians, making to difficult to
pinpoint chances for precipitation along the Aleutians, the AKPen,
and Kodiak Island at this time. These details will become more
clear in the coming days.
Outside of the coastal regions, conditions look to remain dry
across southern Alaska through Thursday as troughing continues
over mainland Alaska. Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the
region next week but remain below average. At times, especially
across the Copper River Basin Monday and Tuesday, nighttime wind
chills may continue to drop to hazardous criteria.
PA
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.
BL
&&
$$
280
FXAK67 PAJK 270643
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
943 PM AKST Thu Feb 26 2026
.UPDATE...Evening and 06z TAF update
Snow is slowly winding down from North to South as a low treks
across the Gulf. As the low departs the area on Friday, many areas
(especially across the northern half of the Panhandle) will see
VFR conditions and clearing skies. Conditions across the southern
half of the area will likewise improve, although chances of snow
linger through Friday morning. Snow showers will result in CIGS
occasionally dropping to IFR (around 1k feet), and VIS as low as
1/2SM at times.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A weakening low in the northern gulf will keep persistent snow
showers spreading across the panhandle Thursday night, gradually
tapering off from north to south through Friday. Localized
heavier showers and gusty winds are expected.
- Winter weather advisory remain in effect for Prince of Wales
Island.
- Outflow conditions increase through Friday morning, with gale
force winds in Lynn Canal and freezing spray expected within the
northern panhandle inner channels through Friday.
SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Complex forecast for the
next 12 to 24 hours. First, the snow showers became wide spread
over the gulf and outer coast last night into today. There are two
distinct areas of enhanced showers currently apparent on
satellite imagery. The first is in the NE gulf off of Cape
Fairweather and Cross Sound extending into Icy Strait and Juneau.
That area of showers is also getting enhanced by overrunning cold
air outflow coming down the northern inner channels currently
producing close cell snow showers. It is this combo of showers
coming in from the gulf and its enhancement by overrunning of cold
air that produced the heavier snowfall from Juneau to Pelican
this morning. The second area of enhanced showers is streaming
across the southern gulf into Prince of Wales Island. This area is
more open-cell convection in character and thus the snow fall is
more hit or miss in nature as it impacts Prince of Wales. Snowfall
amounts over the last 24 hours have varied widely with some areas
getting as much as 7 to 8 inches while other have gotten only a
quarter to half inch at most.
Of the two areas of heavier snowfall, the northern area should be
shorter lived with northerly outflow gradually spreading south,
and the N gulf low moving SE through the evening. The combo of
this should switch off the showers and outflow over the north
through the evening hours. Maybe an inch or two more of snow
accumulation especially over toward Gustavus, Hoonah, and Pelican
before the snow shuts off completely though. The southern area
will be more persistent with showers expected to continue to
stream in from the gulf through the night. Heaviest showers will
be this evening and the frequency and intensity of the showers
should gradually start to diminish after midnight. Likely another
2 to 5 inches of snow accumulation for Prince of Wales Island
through the night with amounts still highly variable depending on
what areas see the showers and what areas miss the showers. Winter
weather advisory for Prince of Wales has been extended to
midnight tonight as a result. Overall trend into Friday and Friday
night is for a continued decreasing trend in shower activity with
light accumulations expected into Friday night.
Winds have generally been light except for the northern inner
channels and NE Gulf coast where northerly outflow started up over
night. Lynn Canal is currently seeing gale force N winds while the
passes east of Yakutat, Haines, and Skagway have seen some gusty
winds to 30 mph today. These outflow conditions are expected to
continue tonight before starting to diminish Friday. Max winds in
Lynn Canal will likely reach moderate gale while the extent of the
northerly winds will reach as far south as Southern Chatham and
Frederick Sound by Friday morning. Winds generally become 15 kt or
less by Friday night for most areas.
LONG TERM...With the cold air in place from the outflow
conditions experienced during the short term, we will start to see
the potential setup for a significant overrunning snow event.
Current thinking is that the most significant snow is expected to
be from Petersburg northward to the Icy Strait corridor including
Juneau. The big question for this overrunning event is where does
the Arctic boundary set up in comparison to the moisture moving
into the area. For places around Petersburg, the cold air is
expected to persist before being mixed out and warmer temperatures
allow for a switch to rain. Farther south, warmer temperatures are
expected to persist that will minimize the amount of snow that is
expected across the area while places to the north such as Haines
and Skagway are expected to remain on the dry side due to the
cold, dry air that will have moved in. Current thinking is that
the Icy Strait corridor including Juneau could be the target for
the heavy, prolonged snow event across the area. There is still
some exact uncertainty regarding just how much snow could fall.
But confidence continues to increase in seeing significant snow,
especially as ensembles come into better agreement for the
location of the low moving into the Gulf. This pattern is
expected to persist into the middle part of next week.
Headed into the later half of next week and into the weekend
after, a return near normal temperatures and precipitation is
expected for the region.
AVIATION.../through 0z Friday/...Snow showers continue to stream
over the panhandle bringing highly variable flight conditions
down to LIFR at times. As of the Thursday afternoon, a band of
overrunning showers continues to persist over the Icy Strait area
bringing more consistent IFR and occasional LIFR conditions to
the area primarily due to VIS restrictions. This band of more
organized showers is expected to last into the early evening
hours Thursday before gradually diminishing as northerly flow wins
out and the low in the gulf weakens and continues moving southward.
Coastal communities could see showers last a bit longer from
continued onshore flow. MVFR and VFR conditions will become more
common Thursday evening and night as cloud cover starts to lift
and thin out a bit.
Elevated winds remain blowing at Haines and Skagway with gusts up
to 30 kt. These winds are expected to subside late Thursday night as
the gradient slackens with the low sliding southward in the gulf.
The strongest winds are expected in the vicinity of Lynn Canal
with sustained northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt and gusts up to 45
kt. Winds aloft will also shift more out of the north through the
period as the low departs.
MARINE...
Inner Channels: Northerly outflow conditions have started up in
the northern inner channels. Lynn Canal is already blowing min
gale force with outflow winds reaching Cross Sound (E wind of 25
kt) and central Stephens Passage (n wind of 20 kt) as of 1 pm.
Farther south winds are still mostly out of the S and W at around
15 kt or less. The outflow winds are expected to continue to
spread southward through the night with the furthest extent being
down to Frederick Sound and Southern Chatham Strait by Friday
morning. Max winds will still be in Lynn Canal and should not
exceed moderate gale force overnight. Expect the outflow to then
diminish through the day Friday and nearly shutting off
completely by Friday night. Freezing spray has also returned for
the northern channels, especially Lynn Canal and that should
diminish on Friday as the outflow diminishes. Seas are around 4 ft
or less for most areas except for Lynn Canal where the northerly
gale force winds are producing 7 to 8 ft seas currently, and at
ocean entrances exposed to the W where a W swell of 10 to 15 ft
are enhancing seas there.
Gulf Waters: Winds and seas are on the downward trend after
peaking at moderate gale and nearly 30 ft seas in the central and
southern gulf last night. Currently Westerly winds have diminished
to 30 kt or less across the gulf with seas of 20 ft in the south
and 10 ft seas in the north (W swell of 13 to 15 ft in the south
gulf with a 12 sec period). Winds and seas expected to continue to
diminish into Friday with most of the gulf below 15 kt of wind and
seas 8 ft or less by late Friday afternoon. The NE gulf will have
some gusty winds out of interior passes tonight, but those should
not last beyond Friday morning before diminishing. Seas should
continue to diminish into Saturday. Winds will be switching
direction Friday night from a W direction to a S direction and
will likely start to increase again to around 20 to 25 kt across
the south gulf by Saturday.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until noon AKST Friday for AKZ318-319.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for AKZ320>322-325-326.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ322-
328.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-032-641>644-651-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
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