575
FXAK68 PAFC 050109
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A trough over Southcentral lending toward the showery pattern
across the region will continue to promote the unsettled weather
through tonight into Wednesday. Cold temperatures overnight
tonight will dip again, continuing the cooling trend for
Southcentral.

By Wednesday morning, a new low pressure system will enter the
northern Gulf of Alaska, becoming the dominant feature over the
area guiding the shift to a more active weather pattern. With low
pressure building over the Gulf and cold air building over the
interior of Southcentral, gusty northerly winds draining out of
the gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm
are expected to build Wednesday morning. Gusty winds through
Thompson Pass are also expected to similarly build, and given any
transportable snow on or near the roadways, may also lead to
periods of blowing snow through the pass at times of peak wind
gusts. Significant/continued reductions in visibility is not
expected, however periods are possible Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning. Wednesday night, precipitation is expected to
build across Prince William Sound, and eastern Kenai Peninsula.
Areas of the Copper River Basin may also see period of light
snowfall through Wednesday afternoon as far north as Glennallen.

By Thursday morning, snowfall will quickly build across the
eastern Kenai, pushing across the mountains and creating snowfall
near Portage, Turnagain Arm, and Turnagain Pass. Turnagain Pass
will see the quickest rise in snowfall rates, with accumulations
expected along the road system through Thursday. A Special Weather
Statement has been issued for this, please see that product for
more information. Later Thursday morning, the low will push
further north and west, allowing precipitation to persist closer
to the Anchorage Peninsula, with snowfall expected to begin for
the Hillside, with extensions into south and eastern Anchorage
possible, in the later morning. Snow is expected to continue for
these areas of the city through Thursday afternoon, as the low
shifts back into the western Gulf, retreating the snowfall back up
Turnagain Arm. Snowfall is possible to continue for the Turnagain
Pass area through Friday morning.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Low stratus and reduced visibilities continue to fester along the
Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast, particularly in
Kipnuk. The main culprit for the low stratus is weak/stale flow
between broad ridge in the eastern Bering Sea and a trough axis
stretching across interior Southwest Alaska. While conditions look
to remain the same for the rest of today and tonight, flow picks
up out of the northeast Wednesday morning which should help things
to mix a little more which should help cloud ceilings lift and
visibilities to increase.

The upper low anchoring the trough across interior southwest will
move southward Wednesday evening through Thursday and will bring
snow showers across Nunivak Island, the Interior Kuskokwim Delta,
as well as the western Kuskokwim Valley beginning Wednesday
afternoon. The best chance for snow with this system will along
the Kuskokwim Mountains northward to Aniak. Bethel also looks to
see some very light snow late Wednesday afternoon to evening, but
it will not add up to much. Upslope snow showers continue across
the Kuskokwim Mountains and the Bering Sea side of the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) through Thursday night. As the shortwave drives
southward across the AKPEN Thursday, gusty northwest winds will
pick up through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the AKPEN
and spill into the North Pacific Thursday through Friday morning
before pressure gradients relax and upper-level energy weakens.
The upper energy responsible for the AKPEN wind enhancement will
also interact with shortwaves rotating around a low in the Gulf of
Alaska Thursday evening through Friday with an area of
deformation forming along interior Southwest. The best chance for
a light snow accumulation will be from Iliamna northward to
Sparrevohn and along the Western Alaska Range. Any snow from this
area of deformation tapers off Saturday morning.

Shifting farther out west, the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea will
remain active through Friday evening. Currently, a gale-force low
is bringing gusty northwest winds to the Western and Central
Aleutians while southeast winds pick up across the Eastern
Aleutians. While Unalaska started off with some snow earlier,
warmer air aloft has moved in and temperatures remain warm at the
surface in the upper 30s which has since changed precipitation
over to rain. Rain continues the Central and Eastern Aleutians
through Wednesday morning before precipitation tapers off
Wednesday afternoon. Cold air also moves back in across the
Eastern Aleutians beginning Wednesday afternoon as a ridge builds
across the central Bering. Any showers that move off the Bering in
the northerly flow ahead of this ridge could allow snow to mix in
with rain across the Eastern Aleutians Wednesday evening and
night. Behind the ridge, a weak front from a Kamchatka low moves
to the western Bering and Western Aleutians Wednesday night and
Thursday bringing another round of rain. This weak system, along
with its light rain, moves to the Central Aleutians by Thursday
afternoon and to the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof Islands by
Thursday night and Friday morning. This system weakens and shears
apart before it can it to the mainland coast of the southern
AKPEN.

Of more concern will be a strong low pressure system poised to
lift from the North Pacific to the southwestern Bering Sea
between the Western Aleutians and Southern Kamchatka by Friday
evening. This system is trending to be quite a strong and deep
system with some guidance suggesting the storm could be in the
930s mb by Friday evening. Storm-force winds and hurricane force
gusts are in the forecast for the Western Aleutians and western
Bering Sea late Friday morning through Friday evening. There is
the possibility of a little corridor of sustained hurricane-force
winds Friday afternoon along the coastal marine zones of the
Western Aleutians. The progression of this storm will have to be
watched very closely as its front moves across the Bering Sean and
eventually to the mainland coast by late this weekend.

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Several strong storms will move across the Bering Sea from this
weekend through early next week. Of note is that models are in
much, much better agreement than is typical for this timeframe,
which suggests higher than usual forecast confidence with these
storms.

As mentioned in previous forecast discussions, the first storm
will be a low pressure system sweeping across the Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands and into Southwest Alaska through at least
Monday. Models are honing in on a very strong low, with
deterministic models showing central pressure below 950 mb (and
as low as about 935 mb if the deterministic Canadian and GFS
models are to be believed). The primary hazard to watch for will
be hurricane-force gusts across the Western Aleutians/Bering.
Though the front will weaken as the low occludes, it may still be
strong enough to increase coastal water levels along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast Sunday morning. For most other areas, expect
widespread gales and moderate to heavy precipitation at times.

Forecast confidence declines from Sunday into Monday regarding the
position of both the occluding low and a triple point low that
forms along the front in the North Pacific. Regardless, expect
localized gales around both lows.

By Monday night, another strong low pushes its front across the
Bering Sea. Confidence is high that this will be gale force front,
with the potential for sustained storm force winds. This second
low won`t be as strong as the first low arriving late this week,
but it will be slower to occlude. As such, the front may be
comparable in strength to the first low`s front.

-Chen

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected throughout the
TAF period. Light snow showers may pass through the terminal this
evening. VFR is expected to prevail through any snow shower, but
a temporary drop to MVFR will be possible.

&&


$$

485
FXAK67 PAJK 050018
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A gale force low continues to move north into the Gulf of
Alaska.

- Marine and land winds continue to increase late tonight into
early tomorrow morning.

- Easterly mountain waves are likely to increase wind gusts up to
45 mph near downtown Juneau Wednesday morning.

- Another gale force low slated for the weekend, bringing moderate
to heavy precipitation to the southern panhandle and then
spreading northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low has begun to move north into the
Gulf of Alaska from the Northern Pacific. As this low moves north, a
strong east to west pressure gradient develops, especially over the
Coast Mountains, due to a 1020 mb high pressure over British
Columbia. This pressure gradient will not only create weak outflow
across east to west facing channels, confidence has increased on
weak mountain wave winds into downtown Juneau. The strongest winds
are anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with gusts up to
45 mph over downtown Juneau. The one ingredient that prevents a
stronger mountain wave, is the low critical level around 700 to 800
mb. Winds along the inside waters also increase to strong breezes to
near gales. The strongest of these winds over Lynn Canal to Stephens
passage with sustained winds up to 30 kts. Near Point Couverden is
already seeing these stronger winds this afternoon with gale force
wind gusts around 35 kts.

Precipitation with this system remains light with the help of the
outflow bringing slightly drier air to the panhandle. Light rain
will continue over isolated areas of the panhandle, especially near
the gulf coast, into tonight before a slight break in precipitation
Wednesday morning. The next front begins to push into the panhandle,
from south to north, Wednesday late morning into the afternoon.
Precipitation totals remain light, but areas north of the Icy Strait
corridor could see mixed precipitation Wednesday night. This is due
to the slightly cooler airmass in place. Little to no snow
accumulation is anticipated, with the most likely chance of snow
over the Haines and Klondike Highways.

.LONG TERM...A broad occluded low will move into the northwestern
gulf and send multiple shortwaves towards the panhandle to end the
week. Moderate to heavy precipitation is possible with these, but
nothing exceptional for this time of year. For the far northern
panhandle some mixed precipitation is possible, with minor snow
accumulations limited to the highest parts of the Klondike
Highway. There looks to be a brief break between these fronts
Thursday evening before the next wave moves through on Friday.
This second wave may have a little bit more moisture to work with
as models have it phase with a low passing south of the panhandle
around the same time. After this second wave, the low in the
western gulf is expected to continue weakening and dissipate,
being replaced by another strong low moving up from the eastern
Pacific.

This strong low will bring widespread precipitation beginning
later in the day Saturday and last through Sunday. Models have
begun to converge on a general track for this low skirting 140
degrees West before turning into the panhandle as it weakens. With
this feature being occluded at this point, there will be decent
moisture associated with it and moderate to heavy precipitation is
expected for the southern panhandle, with 48 hr accumulations
ranging from 2 to 4 inches as of this forecast, with lower
accumulations for the central and northern panhandle. These totals
may increase depending upon the low track, as the current
consensus is for the main moisture tap to aim for Haida Gwaii and
the central coast of British Columbia.

Current thinking is that while the lower levels across the
panhandle will be cool and there will be a northerly wind shift
ahead of the approaching low, temperatures will not be cold
enough for any appreciable snow accumulations at sea level this
weekend. However, with heavier precipitation rates, the
atmospheric column may be cooled just enough to allow for some.
This will be a very dynamic system to analyze and watch heading
into the weekend. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the
week.

&&

AVIATION.../through Wednesday afternoon/...

The front lifting north is bringing potential for light rain and
low-end VFR to high-end MVFR flight conditions for central and
into northern panhandle and PAYA tonight. Conditions improve
south to north through the night and VFR conditions will prevail
before another front pushes into the southern panhandle on
Wednesday, bringing more rain and a possibility of MVFR flight
conditions. Winds generally 10 to 15kts with gusts 20 to 25kts
across the southern panhandle, with the exception of PAPG, where
winds will mostly be less than 10kts. LLWS will also be present
across the southern panhandle with winds at 2kft E to SE 30-40kts.
Across the north, winds less than 10kt, except for northerly
outflow winds 15-25G30-35kt at PAHN and PAGY. LLWS possible at
PAYA and PAGS tonight. Mountain waves and robust LLWS with winds
30-35kts from the ENE at 1kft expected to develop near PAJN
tonight and continue into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...The main story in the marine forecast is active weather
continues with more low pressures sliding into the area from the
south. The first of this parade of lows will move into the Gulf
tonight.

Outside: A developing low pressure is forecasted to move north into
the Gulf of Alaska tonight into tomorrow. Strongest winds will be on
the north and east sides of the low, upwards of 30 to 40 kts from
the east to southeast lasting through Thursday. Friday could see a
break in the gales before another gale force low moves up from the
south this weekend.

Wave heights on the eastern sides of the low will build to around 20
to 25 feet with a swell out of the south. Waves will subside
Thursday and Friday before the weekend low moves in.

Inside: The inside channels winds and waves will be highly
influenced by these passing lows and the associated fronts that will
track north through the panhandle. From a big picture view,
expecting the winds to swing back-and-forth from north to south as
these lows track through.

For tonight and tomorrow, inner channel winds will be generally from
an outflow direction, so from north to south for north/south
oriented channels and from west to east for east/west oriented
channels. Once the parent low reaches the far western Gulf Thursday
morning, the pressure gradient looks to switch to a more southerly
direction. So winds will react to the new pattern, and swing to the
south, until the weekend when the next low will approach from the
south and the winds swing back to a more northerly direction.

The pressure gradient looks to tighten up in the northern half of
the area so northerly winds will pick up to around 25 to 30 kts late
tonight into tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain elevated, at around
20 to 30 kts, through Thursday before decreasing Thursday night into
Friday. Expecting winds to pick up again this weekend as the next
low tracks north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-644-661>664-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-033-036-053-642-643-
651-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GJS

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