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572
FXAK69 PAFG 152246
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
146 PM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A very cold weather pattern continues across much of the region
with the coldest air remaining over the Eastern Interior where
temps are 25 to 35 degrees colder than normal. A pair of
disturbances over the next few days will bring some periods of
light snow to the North Slope and areas along the West Coast.
These systems will also push some cloud cover and light snow over
frigid portions of the Interior, potentially bringing some
limited relief from the extreme cold. Meanwhile a disturbance
dropping south from the Beaufort could bring blizzard conditions
to the eastern Arctic Coastline Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clouds move in tonight and Tuesday with some light snow possible
from the Fairbanks metro westward. This will limit the very
cold temperatures to teens and 20s below zero.
- The rest of the week will see a mix of clouds and clearing.
However areas that see some breaks in the clouds will continue
to experience very cold temps. The far eastern interior will
also continue to feature much below temps for the next few days.
- North winds through Isabel Pass to 30 mph early this afternoon,
but should subside this evening. Winds will remain breezy into
mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Light snow will continue this afternoon into Tuesday as a
weakening disturbance tracks southeast from the Northern Seward
Peninsula. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or
less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.
- Another system has the potential to bring more significant
snowfall to most coastal areas and the Interior beginning
Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday, though
accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- An area of snow will track across the North Slope through
Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to
40 mph.
- Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3
to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks
Range.
- Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the
eastern Arctic coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range by
midweek. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Kaktovik from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for potential wind gusts in
excess of 50 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Our current cold snap may have hit it`s peak this morning with
many locations experiencing their coldest temps in a couple of
years including Fairbanks where the temp briefly fell to -41F.
The good news is that temps should moderate a bit for a couple of
days as a disturbance is currently crossing the northwest coast of
Alaska and will manage to spread snow and clouds southwards from
the western North Slope and West Coast into parts of the Interior
through Tuesday. The highest snow totals will likely be confined
to the western Brooks Range, but much of northern and western
Alaska should see at least a few inches of new snow. Across the
Interior, confidence is high that we will see snow Tuesday as much
of the column will be saturated. But at these cold temps, total
available moisture remains limited. As such this system will not
manage to produce snowfall like the most recent system did.
Probably the most impactful weather the next couple of days will
be associated with a disturbance dropping south from the Beaufort
Sea towards the eastern Arctic Coastline. While this system will
spread snow along the North Slope from Utqiagvik to Barter Island
through Wednesday, it is the potential for strong winds that will
be most concerning. The gradient between the approaching surface
low to the north and the strong surface high over the Eastern
Interior will help generate strong easterly flow along the coast.
Guidance suggests winds of 35 to 40 mph gusting upwards of 50 mph
at times late Tuesday into Wednesday from Point Thomson to
Kaktovik. With the potential for blowing snow and visibilities
well below 1/4 mile, the decision has been made to upgrade the
current Winter Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning for the eastern
Arctic Coast. Meanwhile a Winter Weather Advisory will be hoisted
for the coastline west of this area extending back to Prudhoe Bay
where winds will generally be a little less strong, but still
sufficient to generate a decent amount of blowing snow.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Once again the extended period begins with a highly amplified
pattern consisting of a deep trough extending from the Yukon down
into the Gulf with a ridge extending from the North Pacific up
into Siberia. This also leads to a stark temp contrast with above
normal temps along the west coast with much below normal temps
across the east. As far as the future of this pattern, models are
still trying to slowly break down the ridge, but are still likely
a bit too quick and aggressive in doing so. Using ensemble means
as a basis for this forecast package, it seems like we will see a
replay of the current setup with a disturbance dropping southeast
out of the Chukchi and bringing precip (mainly light snow) south
and east across the region Thursday and Friday. Should the ridge
buckle a bit in response to this, additional energy over Siberia
could then shift eastwards towards the west coast over the
weekend. Should this come to pass, the west coast would be in for
more significant precipitation over the weekend, including a
chance for a wintry mix in spots. However this is a very low
confidence call at this time.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-812-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&
$$
Laney
464
FXAK68 PAFC 151400
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Key Message:
Strong northerly winds will begin to diminish today, though not
end completely for areas prone to channeled terrain/gap winds.
The surface high pressure over Interior Alaska and low in the
eastern Gulf is keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region
early this morning. These High Winds are expected to lessen
throughout the morning with hopes that they will diminish under
High Wind Warning levels by noon today for areas that do have the
warnings out. Even with the pressure gradient easing some, once
these winds through channeled terrain start, they tend to keep
going until the gradient really diminishes. This looks unlikely to
happen over the next few day with the general pattern not
changing much. Therefore, areas such as Valdez and Seward and
Whittier will likely still see windy conditions for the next few
days. The Matanuska Valley, especially near Palmer, is in the same
boat with those northeast winds expected to diminish below high
wind warning levels today, but there will still be a stiff wind
coming out of the Matanuska River valley for the next few days.
For areas that see the winds diminish completely, expect
temperatures to plunge by 20 to 30 degrees as skies will remain
generally clear.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 through 3...
High pressure over the Western Aleutians strengthens as it moves
slowly across the Bering Sea side of the Western Aleutians early
this week. Its center moves over Adak near mid-week. This results
in strong, sustained ridging over the Aleutians with
northerly flow through the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Mainland into mid-week.
The past twelve hours ending at 4am today: Sustained winds from
30 to 40 mph with wind gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph were
recorded through the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.
Much weaker winds were recorded elsewhere across the region during
this timeframe. The remainder of today through this evening will
experience a gradual decrease in sustained winds and gusts through
the region.
Tomorrow, as the aforementioned high continues to move slowly
eastward, increased Arctic air accompanies a weak wave moving
southward into the Alaska Peninsula. This will cause the return to
strong winds through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
Late Tuesday morning, areas from False Pass to Sand Point will
begin to see an uptick in their wind gusts (40 to 50 mph) and by
the afternoon, this area of higher winds shift to an area from
Sand Point to Chignik with gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph;
higher in the bays and passes. These wind gusts continue through
early Wednesday morning before subsiding.
Other weather hazards in the next seventy-two hours: Light snow
is expected today in the Pribilof Islands through the Eastern
Aleutians though accumulations of a trace are expected.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the single digits as cold air
continues to advect in to Southwest Mainland. Accompanied by
offshore winds, wind chills 20 to 30 degrees below zero are
expected. Another cold air mass moves into the Southwest Mainland
Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the low single digits above zero with
lows in the teens below zero.
-Johnston
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...
The start of the long term is characterized by an anomalously
strong 500 mb ridge that extends from the North Pacific, over the
Bering Sea, and well north of the Bering Strait. Over the Gulf, an
upper trough continues to dig south and eastward. 850 mb
temperature anomalies from the global models suggest that much of
Alaska and the Gulf will continue to stay below average, while the
Aleutians, the Bering, and perhaps the western Alaska coast will
be above average for this time of year. One caveat to the cold
weather across Southcentral will be if we see more strong wind
events, as increased winds tend to moderate temperatures. However,
on clear and calm to light wind nights, expect overnight lows to
really bottom out. Models do diverge a bit of the placement of the
Bering ridge by the end of the long term, but it looks like none
of the global models want to break the pattern down. Expect
Southcentral Alaska to remain in a rather cold, dry, and windy
pattern for the foreseeable future, with periods of windy
conditions possible to likely for some of the usual drainage gap
wind locations. With cold air pooled in the Copper River Basin, we
will continue to monitor any upper level features that move along
the 500 mb mean flow that could help induce more density driven
katabatic winds for some of our valley locations.
-AM
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Strong
north/northeast winds have peaked and will gradually weaken
through the day.
&&
$$
255
FXAK67 PAJK 152211
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
111 PM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025
.UPDATE...Update to the short term forecast to discuss the recent
changes and extensions to the winter weather Advisories and
Warnings.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Multiple Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings are in effect
across the central Panhandle and the Icy Strait Corridor.
- Cold temperatures continue, with very cold wind chills near
White Pass.
- Gusty outflow winds down Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, near
Point Couverden, and Downtown Juneau continue tonight.
- Snow and snow showers will continue through tonight. Precip
diminishes from north to south tomorrow.
- Drier, colder, and sunnier weather likely later this week.
&&
SHORT TERM...The particularly complicated forecast continues here
in SE AK. A vertically stacked low is spinning in the eastern
gulf. The low is bringing moderate snow to the northern half of
the panhandle, snow and rain showers to the southern half of the
panhandle, and thundersnow to the coast.
For the snow in the northern half, a stalled frontal boundary near
the Icy Strait Corridor is keeping light to moderate snow in
place. This looks to remain through tonight so the Winter Storm
Warnings for Elfin Cove, Pelican, Hoonah, and Juneau have been
extended into Tuesday morning. Based on reports from storm
spotters from Gustavus, the Winter Weather Advisory will mostly
likely be allowed to play out and expire later today.
For the southeastern portion of the low, showers have developed
and will last through tonight. The main areas of concern for these
showers are the northern half of Prince of Wales Island and
Southern Baranof Island, and extending far inland as Kake,
Petersburg, and Wrangell. These showers will keep the on/off snow
in place so the Advisories have been extended or they remain
unchanged from inherited forecast. Snow showers by nature can
cause wide differences in snow totals over short distances. So
while the current forecasts are calling for snow totals through
tonight around 3 to 8 inches, some isolated amounts of greater or
less than that range are likely.
For the lightning and thundersnow along the coast, reports from
the public and detection from satellites indicate lightning near
Sitka. This lightning potential will stay in the Sitka area
through today while spreading southward to the western Prince of
Wales and the Metlakatla area overnight.
A fresh injection of CAA around the
850-700 mb level look to increase lapse rates to 8 degrees C and
above. This combined with a mostly saturated environment up to 500
mb this afternoon. This will result in snow shower development
with possibly quickly accumulating, localized snowfall with rates
that could well exceed one inch per hour. Highest likelihood for
snow showers from current analysis is between the northern end of
Prince of Wales Island up to Petersburg, and therefore issued
Winter Weather advisories. While it is possible that these areas
will not receive any precipitation, it is also possible that these
areas could exceed warning criteria. Any showers that do develop
will need to be monitored carefully today.
LONG TERM.../Wednesday Through The Weekend/...By Wednesday,
precipitation will be winding down across the Icy Strait Corridor,
as the upper level trough over the Gulf shifts eastward, and
northerly flow begins to win out and shift further southward.
Chances of precipitation will continue in the southern half of the
panhandle as the advance of the northerly outflow will finds
itself eventually stalling as a low approaching the Dixon Entrance
keeps chances of PoPs in the forecast through Thursday. Chances
of PoPs for the southern panhandle finally depart through Friday,
as drier weather and northerly outflow prevail across the entire
area, and we find ourselves on the W flank of the upper level
trough through early next week. Temperatures look set to plummet
once more during this time frame, with lows near or below zero
possible for some locations.
&&
AVIATION...Flying weather continues to vary depending on your
location today as snow continues for the panhandle. The heaviest
band of precipitation continues to be from Sitka over to Icy
Strait which is seeing lowered VIS as well as CIGs. VIS has been
dropping down to as a low as half a mile with the snow. South of
Sumner Strait, conditions have generally improved to VFR although
passing showers could bring down CIGs and VIS to as low as IFR but
more likely down to MVFR. For the northern panhandle, MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected to persist except for the Yakutat area
which has been seeing VFR conditions this morning. LLWS will
continue to remain a concern through today, especially for the
central panhandle including Juneau. Turbulence and icing continue
to be highlighted by the AAWU as a concern and continue to be
reported by Pireps coming in from the area.
&&
MARINE...
Outside Waters: Main changes to the inherited forecast is pulling
the low center a bit closer to the coastline overtime, and having
winds in the gulf diminishing quicker tonight. Still expecting
outflow conditions out of interior passes, with Yakutat Bay and
Dangerous River taking the cake with storm force winds through
much of the day today with wave heights exceeding 20 ft. Expecting
to see these areas diminish down to a gale as the low pressure
moves near the coast and fills.
Inside: The biggest new concern for the inner channels is the area
where Lynn Canal, Icy Strait, and Chatham Strait meet. Beginning
shortly after 12:30pm, Rocky Island started reporting sustained
winds over 60 kt with gusts nearing 90 to 100 kts. For now, the
thinking is these very strong winds will continue into the evening
with a diminishing trend overnight as the source low moves
inland.
The outflow pattern continues into tonight across the
northern panhandle, with continued wind speeds up to 35 kts. Wind
speeds and gusts up to 45 kt continue for Lynn Canal. Wind
directions will, more-or-less, remain unchanged through the short
term across the northern panhandle. Freezing spray possibilities
remain for Stephens Passage, Northern Chatham, Icy Strait
Corridor, and Lynn Canal through, progressively getting heavier as
we go into next week.
For the southern panhandle, will see a bump up in southeasterly
winds ahead of the front sweeping across the southern half of the
panhandle later this morning and through tonight. Winds look to
increase to around 25-30 knots in Clarence Strait and Sumner
Strait in lieu of the passing front.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ320.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ321-322-325.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323-326.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ328.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-013.
Storm Warning for PKZ053-643-644-651-663-664.
Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-641-642-661-662-671.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031>036-652-672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NC/GJS
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
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