893
FXAK68 PAFC 091320
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

With our latest low departing but two more troughs on the way,
expect alternating days of nice vs. unsettled weather as these
features move through. For today, generally improving conditions
as showers taper off and pockets of clearer sky develop. Some
areas of lower clouds and fog may linger through the morning. By
evening, a tightening surface pressure gradient along the coast
will induce gusty offshore winds along the Gulf coast for
locations like Seward, Whittier, and Valdez. One aspect of the
forecast that`s a bit more challenging is the potential for fog
and low stratus tonight into early tomorrow morning along Cook
Inlet and in valley locations. While higher surface pressure and
weak winds support fog formation, there`s a question of whether
high clouds streaming in ahead of the first trough will disrupt
radiational cooling and fog formation.

Forecast confidence is much higher regarding precipitation chances
tomorrow, as the first of our two troughs moves in from the west.
Compared to yesterday, models have been trending stronger with
this front. As such, precipitation chances have increased from
Mat-Su down through Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula. With
precipitation set to fall from late morning through the afternoon,
much of the precipitation will likely come in the form of rain.
Even if any snow falls, surface temperatures will be too warm to
support much accumulation at the lower elevations. The front
weakens as it treks eastward, with little to no precipitation
forecast by the time it reaches Copper River Valley or Prince
William Sound.

Drier, but mostly cloudy, conditions return for Saturday, though
the next trough will begin moving in later that afternoon. Kodiak
Island and Western Susitna will be the first locations to see
precipitation as the front moves through Saturday afternoon and
evening. As the upper trough progresses, it develops a surface
low in the northern Gulf that will bring more widespread
precipitation to Mainland Southcentral from Saturday evening into
early Sunday morning.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, a ridge is moving through the Southwest Mainland,
allowing patchy fog and low stratus to affect the region. Behind
the ridge out west is a front moving through the Bering. This is
bringing a line of small craft winds and a mix of rain and snow to
the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. The front will push inland by
this afternoon, bringing snowfall and/or a mix of snow and rain,
depending on temperatures, to the Southwest Mainland. Though wind
speeds will be elevated along the Kuskokwim Coast, significant
blowing snow is not expected due to temperatures being just below
freezing. Behind this front is yet another front from a Kamchatka
low moving into the Western Aleutians. Gale force winds and
precipitation mostly in the form of rain impacts the Western
Aleutians by Thursday night/early Friday. This front will quickly
weaken as it traverses through the Bering, with winds speeds
dropping below small craft and precipitation becoming light by the
time the front reaches the East Bering early Saturday. The front
gets a second wind as it moves over the mainland due to a strong
upper trough catching up with it and enhancing precipitation. This
precipitation will likely be a mix of rain and snow.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...


The long term begins on Sunday with a continuation of the
amplified upper-level weather pattern consisting of a trough
digging across the eastern half of the Bering and a ridge
downstream extending the northeastern Pacific northward across the
Al-Can border.

By Sunday, there is already some notable differences between the
various deterministic model runs, although all do show a digging
upper-level trough with its axis extended south over the Alaska
Peninsula. The biggest difference is in the placement of two
shortwave troughs embedded within the flow near the base of the
longwave trough. The GFS has a more pronounced wave lifting north
across western Alaska with the ridge downstream slightly stronger
and more stationary. This lends to a second shortwave digging
farther south across the AKPen and developing a much stronger
surface low closer to Kodiak than the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
which have a weaker wave and weaker, faster moving low in the
Gulf.

By Monday, this upper-level wave is moving east toward the Alaska
Panhandle. Again, guidance diverges on the exact track of the
associated surface low, with the GFS solution keeping a stronger
low centered over the central Gulf and the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions showing a weaker low somewhere along northern Gulf coast
between Cordova and Yakutat. Nonetheless, the result will be an
increase in gap winds for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and the BArren
Islands in the wake of the low as colder air advects southeast
from the eastern Bering.

By late Monday, expect a repeat of the weather pattern, with a
transient upper-level ridge upstream moving over the state for
late Monday into Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops
near Kamchatka with its front moving quickly across the Bering
Sea Tuesday and into Southwest Alaska for Wednesday as the
amplified pattern becomes a bit more zonal.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings remain above
3000 ft AGL. Winds will shift from northerly this morning to west-
northwest by the afternoon.

&&


$$

577
FXAK67 PAJK 100037
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
437 PM AKDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Light rain will continue through Thursday night, ending from
north to south on Friday. Rain could mix with snow across the
north at times through Thursday night.

- Increasing forecast confidence of drier and warmer conditions
for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Rain continues through Thursday night as a narrow
trough and its corresponding occluded front slowly moves south.
Given the lack of a strong moisture plume with this front,
expected rainfall totals will not be all that impressive, with 0.5
to 1 inch of liquid expected to fall. As the front slowly moves
south, think that fog could develop in its wake across Yakutat and
parts of the northern panhandle. As the front departs tomorrow,
skies begin to clear behind it. Some lingering cloud cover is
expected, and chances of showers will linger through the day on
Friday for the southern panhandle. A weak northerly outflow event,
driven by the pressure gradient in the wake of the system, will
begin on Friday, with N winds reaching fresh to strong breeze in
many of the N/S inner channels, although these winds may briefly
weaken late Friday afternoon as a sea breeze attempts to set up.
By Friday night, the system will have fully departed SE AK,
setting the stage for a dry start to the weekend on Saturday as SE
AK comes under the eastern flank of a ridge, though some
lingering cloud cover cannot be ruled out.


.LONG TERM...Dry weather and clearer skies expected Saturday as
ridging sets up to the west over the Gulf, and with the low to the
SE will allow for offshore flow. The N 15 and 25 kt winds are
expected down Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage, and Chatham Strait
overnight into the morning Saturday, with up to 30 kt winds
possible down Lynn Canal. The gradually weakening pressure
gradient along with the diurnal heating combating the offshore
flow moving into the daytime will limit some of this northerly
flow into the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. The clearer
skies will enable warmer temperatures during the daytime Saturday
across the panhandle, as well as allow for some cooler nighttime
temperatures Saturday night, and bring potential for sea breezes
in some areas during the day. Winds across the panhandle will
diminish to light and variable overnight into Sunday morning,
picking up again into Sunday night as the next system approaches.

The ridging offshore will begin to break down into Sunday as the
next system approaches from the NW Gulf. This system shows higher
confidence today at being colder aloft, with -7 to -9 C
temperatures at 850 mb and a cold low center at 500 mb, but still
the warmer temperatures at the surface keep some uncertainty on
precipitation in the forecast at this time for Monday night. Still
expecting this to be a more convective system due to the colder
temperatures aloft and warmer sea surface temps, bringing more
showery precipitation. This will move into the NE coast during the
day Sunday before pushing E across the rest of the panhandle
overnight through Monday. A rain / snow mix is expected in the
overnight hours for the N panhandle, becoming rain by morning. The
rest of the panhandle will see rain as the system moves through
later that morning through the day Monday.

Some mixing potential returns to the panhandle into Monday
evening and the overnight hours as snow levels drop and
temperatures aloft decrease, though precipitation chances will
gradually diminish into Monday night from W to E as well. Any
mixed precipitation is not expected to accumulate much at all,
especially as daytime temperatures remain in the high 30s to low
40s Monday. Expecting around a trace of snowfall for the northern
panhandle Sunday through Monday night, with sea level locations
staying below 0.5 inches for snowfall. Majority of the QPF for
this system is expected to impact the NE Gulf coastline, between
0.6 to 0.8 inches of QPF for Yakutat, largely falling as rain
aside from during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Friday evening/...Rain will bring impacted
flight conditions to most of southeast Alaska through Friday
morning with MVFR to IFR VIS and CIGs. Lighter winds and moist low
layers could lead to fog development overnight into Friday
morning, especially for PAYA, PAPG and the Icy Strait corridor,
with LIFR flight conditions possible. A drying and clearing trend
expected from north to south later Friday morning and the
afternoon, with VFR flight conditions developing across the north
and PASI, with MVFR flight conditions lingering across the
southern TAF sites. Slightly elevated winds 10-15kt possible
Thursday evening for PAJN and Friday for PAHN and PAGY. Otherwise,
winds generally less than 10kt through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and coastal waters): Sustained winds across the
eastern gulf remain below 25 knots and seas less than 10ft.
Directions vary through Thursday night, but across Cape St. Elias
we see easterly gentle to moderate breezes. Waveheights of 4 to 6
ft will remain the norm across the outer coast, with 6 to 8 ft
closer to the central gulf. Winds will begin to strengthen again
on the backside of this low Friday, with northwesterly winds
increasing to moderate to fresh breezes along the majority of our
coast, especially along the westerly coast of Baranof and Prince
of Wales, driving short period fresh seas from the northwest. Wave
periods are around 10-13 seconds,

Inside (Inner channels):
Winds of gentle to fresh breezes continue to impact the inside
Thursday afternoon, as southerly flow continues in the vicinity of
a front moving through, while northerly flow begins in its wake.
Winds will decrease across the inner channels Thursday night as
the pressure gradient weakens before northerly flow begins to take
hold on Friday. The northerly flow will quickly build across Lynn,
Chatham, and Stephens Friday, with high confidence in speeds
reaching fresh to strong breezes. For Lynn, we will likely see
sustained strong breeze conditions. Freezing spray concerns are
limited given warmer air temperatures. The northerly flow will
weaken through Sunday, before becoming southerly as a low crosses
the Gulf and approaches the panhandle.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...EAB/DS
MARINE...AP/GFS

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