129
FXAK68 PAFC 070139
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Fri Nov 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...


Overnight lows dipped into the upper teens to lower 20s across
most of Southcentral with clearing skies and light winds. This is
ten degrees cooler than yesterday morning`s lows. Coastal areas
of Prince William Sound and southern Kenai Peninsula were the
warmest remaining in the upper 30s to lower 40s because of
persistent cloud cover resulting in a rise of a few degrees from
yesterday morning`s low temperature.

The main weather features into the weekend will be the slowly
dissipating low in the Gulf of Alaska, the influx of cooler air
from the Interior and a mid-weekend low off the eastern coast of
Kodiak Island.

This afternoon into tomorrow evening, a low moves northward along
the Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai Peninsula bringing
coastal rain showers and inland snow. Snowfall accumulations
ranging from a trace to 2 inches are expected for the Copper River
Basin from this evening through late tomorrow morning during the
heaviest time of precipitation. Snow showers linger into the
afternoon. Additionally, low will bring coastal showers and gale to
storm force winds along the near-shore waters of the northern
Gulf. A ridge quickly builds into the area tomorrow afternoon
enhancing northerly flow through the area causing temperatures to
drop into the lower teens by Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday
rebound into the lower 20s. This cooler air moves into the Mat-Su
Valleys, Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula this weekend with
highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s and lows in the upper
teens/lower 20s.

As the low slowly dissipates, continued confidence in a weak
surface low forming near Kodiak Island tomorrow afternoon brings
increased winds to the Barren Islands and offshore areas of
Kodiak Island and southern Kenai Peninsula. A second low begins to
move into the Southern Gulf of Alaska late Sunday evening bringing
gale to storm force winds along the coast of Prince William
Sound.



&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A quieter weather pattern is expected across the region. Weak
longwave troughing will bring the chance of rain and snow showers
through the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula. Interior
Southwest is expected to stay mostly dry. Broad northerly flow
through out the region will trend the temperatures cooler as we
approach closer to winter. A series of North Pacific lows through
early next week are expected to remain south of the Aleutian
Chain. There will be a slight uptick in winds and precipitation
only for the first low tonight for islands west of Adak.

- SS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term remains fairly active as a barrage of strong North
Pacific lows track south of the Aleutian Chain and enter the Gulf
through Friday.

Looking out west, there is good agreement of a gale force North
Pacific low skirting south of the Western Aleutian Chain Tuesday.
With a suppressed storm track, this system will continue eastward
and really only affect mariners south of the Chain. Out east,
model consensus is solid that a surface low will be weakening
Tuesday afternoon somewhere near the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula. This will help to reinforce northwesterly gap winds
across the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of this system. Coastal
Southcentral Alaska looks to be on track to see upslope enhanced
precipitation from this system. One tricky thing will be the low
placement and if we see cross barrier (downsloping) flow for the
northern Cook Inlet region with this system. The EC and its
ensembles is the most bullish on areas like Anchorage seeing snow,
while other models currently show a downslope hole across the
region in lee of the mountains. A second low enters the Gulf on
Tuesday, and the consensus is fair that this will round the Alaska
Panhandle and Southcentral coast as a deep area of low pressure
through Thursday and once again spread precipitation along the
Gulf coast. There is lower confidence at this time of
precipitation spilling over the mountains due to model spread of
the low`s location. The latest deterministic run of the GFS
currently is the most aggressive model, while other global models
show varying solutions due to model agreement breaking down near
the end of the long term.


-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10 to 20
percent) of fog in the morning as clear skies lead to strong
radiational cooling and development of steam fog over the inlet.
Any fog that does develop this morning is expected to dissipate by
late morning to early afternoon as dewpoint depressions widen by
then.

&&


$$

074
FXAK67 PAJK 070847 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1003 PM AKST Fri Nov 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Strong winds in the northern panhandle will continue to
decrease through the evening, with light rain possible for the
rest of the panhandle overnight.

- Generally improving conditions expected with potential for a
brief break into Saturday morning.

- A new gale force front will approach the southern panhandle
Saturday night, increasing outflow winds through the inner
channels Saturday as it approaches.


&&

.SHORT TERM...The remnants of a low pressure system will move
north this evening. Clearing on the backside of the low will
foster showery precipitation and scattered clouds across the
central and northern regions. Rain will remain generally light,
with diminishing chances overnight. Total rainfall through
tomorrow morning along the NE Gulf coast will reach under an inch,
with around 0.5 inches for the remainder of the northern region.
As rain exits by early tomorrow morning, a break in activity may
allow for clearing skies and possible patchy fog. Meanwhile, the
southern panhandle will experience the fringes of a shortwave
trough moving north and clipping the southeastern corner. This
feature will bring light rainfall, primarily isolated to the Misty
Fjords and Hyder regions, before quickly exiting to give the
south a brief break ahead of the next system.

Conditions become active again tomorrow as an approaching low
tracks into the northeastern Gulf. The front is now expected to
reach the outer edge of the southern panhandle Saturday afternoon.
It will shift north through the evening while weakening,
eventually dissipating near the central panhandle and keeping rain
away from the northern region. Rainfall totals over the southern
region up to Frederick Sound will likely reach 0.5 to 1.5 inches
through early Sunday morning. As the pressure gradient tightens
and flow briefly turns northerly on Saturday, winds will pick up
in Lynn Canal, potentially reaching advisory criteria in Skagway
by the afternoon. Elevated NE winds will also impact outer coastal
waters before diminishing quickly Sunday morning.

Maintaining an active pattern, another low enters the central
Gulf late Sunday evening, bringing stronger SE winds to most of
the outer coast and impacting low-lying communities into early
next week. For more details, see the long term discussion below.

.LONG TERM... / Tuesday through Saturday / The remains of the
Monday system will be pulling away to the NW Gulf and the remains of
the weather front will be sweeping through the panhandle and NE gulf
coast. The midrange solutions think that there will be a secondary
system pulling to the far SE of Gulf of Alaska to Haida Gwaii with
its associated rain and some wind. Wednesday is hinting at yet
another system to push into the gulf that will usher in another fall
storm to Southeast Alaska. Fall has decided to stay with the active
weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 06z Sunday/...Showers continue across the
area creating variable flight conditions for SE AK. Areas across
panhandle, especially over the south, are starting to see more of a
break in those showers with some areas seeing lowest cloud bases
around 5000 ft or higher. As showers persist tonight some areas will
continue to see a scattered deck, at times broken, around 1500 to
2500 ft. By late Saturday morning most areas are likely to have
predominately VFR conditions. Just as that happens, another low will
move northward toward the southern panhandle. This will not only
bring rain and lowered clouds back to the area, it will also once
again increase winds.

Winds currently have begun to relax across the area with the
exception of Haines and Skagway where gusts to 30 to 40 kts will
continue into early Saturday morning. Winds across the area will be
below 10 kts before low moves NW and once again increases winds.
This low will not only increase winds, it will also create a change
in wind from southerly to northerly. Once again strongest winds will
be over Skagway, but multiple areas will see wind speeds and gusts
increase. LLWS is also likely over Prince of Wales Island Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): The low passing SW of Yakutat
this evening will move east and gradually fill/weaken through
morning. This will leave us with a broad southwesterly flow 20 kts
or so by morning with 15 ft seas mostly a SW-SE swell. We see
another low to gale force moving up out of the north Pacific
tomorrow bringing another round of 25 to 35 kt sustained winds
with higher gusts to the Dixon Entrance region by tomorrow
afternoon. We continue with Gale Warnings for the Dixon Offshore
zones starting tomorrow and those will possibly spread a bit
further east to the southern Panhandle by Saturday night. Looking
further out, the main thing to watch the next few days will be a
stronger low moving up out of the north Pacific Monday. Most
models bring this low down to around 955 mb as it
strengthens/deepens over the central Gulf of Alaska Monday into
Tuesday. This could mean storm force winds to the central and
eastern Gulf of Alaska zones Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned for
further update. /Garmon

Inside (Inner Channels): The low moving west of Yakutat tonight
will result in a gradual weakening of winds over the northern
Panhandle overnight into Saturday, however as the low to the south
moving up towards Haida Gwaii tomorrow deepens a bit, and the high
over the Yukon strengthens a bit, we will see an increased
northerly flow over the northern Panhandle north to south facing
waters tomorrow afternoon and evening...and we have Small Craft
Advisories for Saturday posted for those zones. To the south, the
low moving up near Haida Gwaii on Saturday will result in an
increased wind flow over Clarence Strait, hence the Small Craft
Advisories there for tomorrow as well. 05/Garmon

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ661.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-034-036-053-
641>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAS
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GARMON

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