586
FXAK68 PAFC 241307
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

IR satellite imagery from early this morning shows the low that
has been in the central Gulf the past two days has moved eastward
along with its shower activity. There are a few showers still
rotating around the low in the western Gulf that could move
across Kodiak today, but other than that, this low is becoming
less of a factor in the weather over Southcentral. Mid and high
level clouds associated with a weak upper level low can be seen
over southern Cook Inlet, but these clouds will dissipate as that
low continues its journey westward. Other than that, weak ridging
aloft is keeping most of Southcentral clear this morning. Most of
Southcentral, but not all of it. Fog-fest 2025 is entering its
third day for the Anchorage bowl and the big question is if today
will be the day it finally dissipates and the fog party ends. What
is different about today compared to the past two days is that
there is definite colder and drier air finally moving far enough
south down the Susitna Valley to begin eroding this persistent fog
bank. Temperatures and dew points from Talkeetna to Wasilla are
running 5 to 10 degrees colder than the same time last night. This
is already eroding the western edge of the fog bank as can be
seen on the nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. The fog bank
remains over the Anchorage Bowl, but ends abruptly just west of
the Anchorage airport. This is less widespread than last night,
though it does extend southward past the Kenai and Soldotna areas
this morning. The same thinking goes for the western Kenai
Peninsula: The drier air should erode out most of the fog as the
day progresses. We shall see.

The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island tonight. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.
This front over the western Gulf will push into the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning to
coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large scale pattern stretches from northeastern Russia into the
northern Pacific, with multiple surface lows embedded within the
elongated trough. This setup will support relatively strong
easterly flow across much of the Bering Sea through early this
week. Flow along the Aleutian Chain is expected to be more
variable as the lows move over them. Overall, anticipate small
craft to gale force winds through Tuesday morning for both the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, including the Pribilof Islands,
and precipitation to continue.

For Southwest Alaska, flow remains primarily offshore, promoting a
drier, colder pattern across the region. Temperatures further
inland will be in the teens, with localized areas into the single
digits in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, during the daytime hours.
Overnight, the aforementioned areas can expect temperatures in the
low teens or single digits. Coastal areas of Bristol Bay will be
warmer with daytime temperatures in the upper 20`s to low 30`s
and overnight temperatures in the mid 20`s. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail until late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as an
inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island into Bristol Bay. A
warmer air mass will also move up with the arrival of this
feature, and surface temperatures could even poke up above
freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday. Areas of
light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead of the
incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and the
northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.

Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.

Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.

Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.

Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus across the terminal, as with the last
couple of mornings and days, continues to be the challenge. Unlike
the last couple of days, there is more dry air just above the
surface with the saturated layer near the surface not being as
thick as the past two days. Therefore, fog could mix out at times
today into low stratus or even a low scattered deck. With that,
while IFR to LIFR conditions look to be predominant early this
morning, later in the morning to the afternoon offers better
chances for VFR. This evening into the overnight, an upper-level
shortwave will approach from the north and potentially offer up
some high-level clouds over the area which will help prevent
further radiational cooling. Another ingredient against the fog
case tonight would be greater dew point depressions of 4 to 6
degrees which indicates drier air at the surface. Thus, there are
greater chances for maintaining VFR conditions this evening and
overnight as opposed to this morning.

&&


$$

871
FXAK67 PAJK 240639
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Active pattern continues through Monday with rain/snow mix for
most areas.

- Winter weather advisory out for Haines for 4 to 6 inches of snow
on Monday.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next week
bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of the
panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Current cool, settled weather conditions across
Southeast Alaska tonight will give way to a more dynamic pattern
as an approaching frontal system pushes moisture into the
panhandle. Current along the coastline, light precipitation and
drizzle have been reported with temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. In contrast for northern areas, cold air remains in
place, supporting flurries and light snow. Current guidance has
precipitation moving in slightly faster, with the Juneau area
seeing a mix of rain and snow showers late this evening. Looking
to see primarily rain in the Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah area by
Monday morning as the shallow, stable cold pool is eroded away by
the incoming frontal system.

Up north near Haines and Skagway is the main impactful elements of
this upcoming system for very early tomorrow morning through the
day. The aforementioned cold pool in the northern panhandle looks
substantially more impressive both in height and stability,
steadily reinforced by northerly winds. A frontogenesis band is
expected to develop almost directly on the Haines area, generating
substantial lift, particularly in the dendritic growth zone.
The only problem with this setup is the uncertainty in moisture
within the atmosphere between 850-500 mb. If the atmosphere is
sufficiently saturated, Haines could very easily see warning level
snow, but the likelihood of occurrence is only around 50%.
Sticking with an advisory for 4-6 inches, and will look towards
latest guidance to see if an upgrade is necessary.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, conditions continue to
remain unsettled. Ensemble guidance is still having a hard time
nailing down specific details as well as deterministic for the
start of the long term. Right now, forecast guidance looks to be
split into two camps with the deterministic and ensemble guidance
for the Euro and Canadian coming together for a more consistent
solution. The other camp is the GFS and GEFS. The Euro/Canadian
solution looks to bring a low farther north and closer to the
panhandle which would increase the chances of seeing rain and snow
showers. The GFS solution looks to keep the low farther to the
south and would favor more of a dry outflow situation. Headed into
Wednesday, it looks like we dry out as high pressure in Canada
becomes the dominant pattern for SE AK. There are still some
disagreements between models on this solution so details could
change regarding exactly what locations dry out. By the time we
get to Thursday, models look to come into more agreement that
outflow will be the dominant weather for the panhandle as high
pressure over the Yukon and British Columbia firmly establishes
control. This will allow for temperatures to cool in locations
that are not usually windy during outflow events while places like
Cross Sound, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and the Stikine River Delta
look to see winds increase. Our attention then turns to a low
pressure over the Alaska Peninsula for our next potential weather
maker. This system is expected to stay west of the area but could
tap into moisture from the south bringing in a significant amount
of moisture to the area. Depending on the location that this low
sets up around, conditions across the panhandle could range from
remaining dry due to high pressure, potentially a significant
rain/snow event, or just a significant rain event if the system is
far enough to the east to mix out the cold air near the surface
and bring mostly just rain. With the disagreement and uncertainty
in the models, this will need to be monitored throughout the week
for updates and changes.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/...An atmospheric wave rotating
around an area of low pressure in the gulf continues to move
northward through the panhandle, bringing lowered CIGs, primarily
RA for the southern panhandle, & a RA/SN mix & SN for northern
areas, which will lower VISs. Expect CIGs & VISs to mainly dip
down to as low as the low-end MVFR category through the TAF
period for most areas, potentially temporarily dipping into the
IFR category when heavier precipitation moves through. Sustained
SFC winds should not exceed 12 kt at their strongest, & LLWS
values remain rather benign.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Inside waters winds are rather light this
afternoon with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of wind. the
exceptions are near Young Bay and Cross Sound which are both
showing E winds to 20 kt. Wind directions are mainly out of the SE
and E. The exception to that is North/south channels north of Icy
Strait which are flowing out of north today. Slight increase in
winds expected for tonight as a weak short wave moves north
increasing winds in the northern half of the inner channels to 15
to 20 kt, but they are expected to diminish into Monday with the
northern inner channels switching to a southerly wind direction
mid day Monday. Winds are then expected to stay light into Monday
night before a general switch to a more northerly direction is
forecast for Tuesday as a storm system moves south of the area.
Seas are primarily wind wave up to 3 to 4 ft and will generally
stay that height or less through Tuesday. Higher seas near Ocean
Entrances tonight into early Monday as SW swell up to 6 ft in the
gulf gradually diminishes into Monday night.

Outside Waters:
Lingering low pressure in the central gulf is producing some 20 kt
winds E winds for the northern gulf and 20 kt W winds for the
southern gulf today. These winds are expected to gradually
diminish and become mostly Southerly by Monday afternoon as the
gulf low diminishes away. As a new low moves by to the south of
the area on Monday night into Tuesday, gulf winds will continue to
shift to SE and then E by Tuesday and will start increasing to
near 25 kt in the eastern gulf by Tuesday. Seas mainly dominated
by SW swell of around 6 to 7 ft (with a period of 12 to 14 sec) at
the moment with wind wave on top of that giving combined seas of 9
to 12 ft. Seas are expected to gradually diminish down to 6 to 7
ft through Monday night as the SW swell subsides. However, Seas
will start building again late Monday night into Tuesday as the
increasing SE winds begin to build waves from a southerly
direction, especially Tuesday where seas could reach 10 to 12 ft
across a large area of the gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-661-662-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL

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