865
FXAK68 PAFC 301322
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

Discussion:

Overnight remain quiet with any final showers dissipating and many
areas seeing a period of clear to mostly clear skies which allowed
temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s for many areas
across Southcentral. By early this morning, mid and high clouds have
begun to push into Southcentral preventing temperatures from falling
further and lowering fog potential along the mid and upper Cook
Inlet areas. Radar is also picking up on the increasing cloud cover
over Cook Inlet and the southern Kenai Peninsula. Meanwhile,
satellite imagery shows today`s weather disturbance starting to
pivot more north as it cross the AKPEN and makes its way towards the
Bristol Bay area later today. Rain and mountain snow showers will
begin to fill in across Kodiak Island later this morning, then up
along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and the western Susitna Valley by
this afternoon. This will be the first in a series of systems that
will lift up through Southcentral over the next several days.

These systems will have a good fetch of moisture transport
northwards allowing for a period of moderate to heavy rain for
coastal locations of the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and
the northern Gulf Coast from today through Saturday where up to
several inches of rainfall can be expected. For higher elevations,
moderate to heavy snow can be expected with strong ridgetop winds
and snow levels increasing from about 800-1200 ft to 1200-2500 ft by
Saturday. Increasing easterly winds across the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains will help to downslope much of the western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and lower Mat-Su Valley keeping these
areas mostly dry.

With strong easterly flow and increasing pressure gradient over the
Chugach Mountains, allowing for strong Turnagain Arm, Knik, and
Copper Valley winds to develop. The winds will start to increase
later today, peaking on Friday, then decreasing Friday night into
Saturday. The core of the strongest winds will remain out over the
Arm itself while some southeast winds make it into town this
afternoon. Flow bends further down- inlet beginning early Friday
morning with a return to northeast winds across the Anchorage Bowl.
However, southeast winds return across the Bowl Friday afternoon and
persist into Saturday. The Anchorage and Eagle River Hillside will
also see gusty southeast winds, potentially up to 50 mph Thursday
night into Friday. The Knik and Copper Valleys will also see gusty
southeast winds Thursday through Saturday.

Another shortwave lifts through the Gulf Saturday afternoon and
evening. This will bring another shot of moisture to Kodiak Island,
the northern Gulf Coast, and Prince William Sound. Sunday brings
another shot of precipitation to the northern Gulf coast with the
bulk of the precipitation looking to be more focused on eastern
Prince William Sound and northern Gulf Coast, including Cordova;
however, models have some slight differences to work out over the
next few days with this late weekend system.

- PP/DAN

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Widespread precipitation overspreads Southwest Alaska this
morning as the front associated with a North Pacific low centered
over the Aleutian Chain continues to push north throughout the day
today. Temperatures hovering right around or just above freezing
has led to a mix of precipitation types overnight across Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta, which likely continues through early
this morning before warmer southeasterly flow raises temperatures
enough for a transition to rain. Current thinking regarding any
snow accumulation remains relatively unchanged with most snow
accumulation confined to higher elevation terrain, and no more
than a dusting up to an inch for the Kuskokwim Delta coast with
lesser amounts farther inland. Following the heaviest
precipitation this morning, expect showers to continue through
this afternoon as the upper level wave lifts north across
Southwest Alaska. Steadier rainfall along the Bristol Bay coast
and along the southern facing slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains is
expected to continue through tonight as strong southeasterly flow
leads to upslope enhancement.

Similar conditions are expected for Friday as another front and
secondary push of moisture arrives to Southwest Alaska and the
Alaska Peninsula by Friday morning as the next shortwave trough
quickly moves in from the west. Expect temperatures to remain warm
enough across Southwest Alaska for this second round of
precipitation to fall as rain. Showery weather continues across
the Aleutians into the weekend as the surface low remains nearly
stationary through Friday, roughly centered over Nikolski as it
becomes vertically stacked and begins to weaken. Conditions begin
to improve Saturday as drier air works into the region as the
trough becomes squeezed between upper level ridging in the Bering
Sea and the Gulf.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level high pressure over the western Gulf and and low
pressure over the eastern Bering Sea will keep Southcentral Alaska
in an active storm track at the start of the long term forecast
period. Reinforcing shortwave troughs and associated surface
features will send a waves of moisture across southern Alaska
Sunday through Tuesday. Model agreement regarding exact timing and
placement is poor at this time, but most global models depict a
low pressure system moving into the western Gulf on Tuesday,
increasing chances for winds up to gale-force in nearby waters.
Things get messy beyond this, with the one thing models agreeing
on is low pressure in the western Bering Sea by Wednesday. There
are hints of high pressure redeveloping in the Gulf by this time,
but exact placement will greatly influence weather for
Southcentral. Stay tuned as things become clearer in the coming
days!



&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist. Turnagain Arm winds increase from
the late morning through the afternoon.


&&


$$

836
FXAK67 PAJK 301843
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1043 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.AVIATION UPDATE... A front is moving southeastward across the
Alaska Panhandle today. Conditions across the area generally MVFR
with localized areas of IFR. IFR may persist across southern
portions of the Panhandle into the late afternoon. However, most
areas are expected to be MVFR by evening. Given light winds and
recent rain, there is some potential for fog tonight. If clouds do
not clear out this evening, then fog is not expected.

.MARINE UPDATE... Winds in northern Lynn Canal and through Cross
Sound have stayed elevated for longer than initially anticipated,
seeing sustained fresh breezes (17 to 21 kts) with strong gusts
(22 to 27 kts) through the morning. Other unsheltered locations in
the N/S facing channels, such as Southern Chatham Strait and
parts of northern Stephens Passage, are also seeing these elevated
winds this morning. The frontal boundary, and subsequently the
swath of strongest winds, continues to shift south over the
sputhern panhandle, and therefore wind speeds are expected to
largely diminish through the afternoon.

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds & rainfall continue to diminishing from northwest to
southeast through Thursday before the northern panhandle begins
to clear out.

- The southern panhandle begins to clear out Thursday night into
Friday morning before a front moves into the northern panhandle,
mainly impacting the northeastern gulf coast.

- Clouds and light rain linger for the northern panhandle through
the weekend before the potential for widespread clearing
increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Night/...A front will continue
pushing southeastward through the panhandle while continuing to
weaken today as its parent SFC low continues pushing northeastward
into the Canadian Yukon & falling apart. Therefore, the wind &
rain will continue to be on the diminishing trend through tonight.
As of this AFD writing, it has already stopped raining in
Yakutat. For Friday, the Southeast Alaska will be dominated by a
ridge of high pressure that will have built-in behind the low &
its associated front. This will allow for some breaks in the
clouds, come warmer temperatures, & things to dry out a bit. There
is the possibility for some fog formation during the overnight
hours Thursday night & Friday night for anywhere that experiences
enough breaks in the cloud cover & light enough wind, allowing
them to cool to their dewpoint temperature. Friday night, a front
will ride over the top of the ridge, bringing decent chances for
some rainfall & some enhanced winds for the northern panhandle.
The southern panhandle will remain dry under the dominance of the
ridge of high pressure in place. This front will bring a 35 to 45
kt barrier jet from about Icy Bay, westward, & from the shoreline,
out to about 40 nm offshore Friday afternoon & Friday night as
the front pushes through.

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/ Only minor changes to
mid range forecast as another weak frontal passage is expected to
push through the panhandle starting Friday night. Southerly flow
associated with the approaching low will drive mid to low level
moisture into the region, causing moderate precipitation rates to
the outer coast and areas north and near the Icy Strait Corridor
with the heaviest rainfall concentrated near Yakutat, rainfall
totals around 1.5 to 2 inches expected through Saturday night.
This front will gradually shift eastward through Saturday, with
highest forecast confidence of rainfall along and north of a line
from Port Alexander to Kake to Petersburg, however with tongue of
high pressure moving northward from N Pac, thinking amounts will
be limited to around 0.50 inch or less, with negligible to trace
amounts for the S Panhandle. Dynamic forcing will help keep
precipitation across the area as the upper level jet traverses
northward over the northeast gulf coast before exiting the region
Sunday evening. Following the passage of this system, a transition
to a drier and significantly warmer pattern is anticipated for
Monday and Tuesday as a ridge aloft develops. The NBM guidance for
early next week highlights the potential for temperatures in the
low to mid 60s, across the central to southern panhandle. Theses
warmer temperatures are coupled with clearing skies and drier
lower levels.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Friday/...Rain continues across most of SE
AK this morning. With this, ceilings continue to remain between MVFR
to VFR across the area, with isolated areas of IFR ceilings.
Visibilities are likely to continue to remain AoA 5 SM this morning,
but there is a chance to see areas of 3 to 4 SM visibility. As the
low continues to weaken and move inland, ceilings will gradually
improve throughout the day and rain will end. Improvement will first
be seen across the north and central portions of the panhandle as
higher pressure moves eastward. As this ridge of higher pressure
moves eastward, skies will begin to clear with scattered to broken
cloud decks across the area. The main concern with clearing skies
will be the increased chance of fog development during the late
night hours of Thursday into early Friday morning. Overall winds
will also decrease throughout the day. Currently strong wind gusts
remain over the central to northern panhandle. Skagway will continue
to see stronger winds, with gusts to 15 to 20 kts, through this
morning before slowly decreasing this afternoon into this evening.
Similarly most other areas will also see winds diminish throughout
the day before becoming calm late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): General high pressure ridging of builds-
in over the Eastern Gulf & Inner Channels starting today through
the weekend & into next week, diminishing wind magnitudes to
between 10-15 kt by this afternoon or even less in some locations
starting tonight & seas topping out at around 2-3 ft.

Outside (Eastern Gulf & Outer Coastal Waters): Ridging builds in
to the eastern Gulf & panhandle, bringing diminished wind
magnitudes & lowered significant wave heights into Thursday night.
After that, a solidly gale-force frontal system moves into the
eastern gulf from the west, bringing winds up to between 35 & 45
kt & significant wave heights of between 14 & 19 ft for Friday
into Saturday, with the strongest winds being associated with a
barrier jet that looks to setup from the shoreline to about 40 nm
offshore from an area around Icy Bay & westward. The rest of the
area to the south of that location should get up to around between
25 to 35 kt with seas of between 10 & 14 ft for that timeframe.
After that, high pressure regains dominance, giving much lighter
winds & much lower significant wave heights.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-032-033-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...NM/BAS
AVIATION...EAB/Musall
MARINE...JLC/ZTK

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