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837
FXAK69 PAFG 142221
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Fire weather is the main concern today as a low in the Western
Gulf of Alaska brings an occluded front northward. It will be
battling a ridge over Canada as it does so, resulting in gusty
southeast winds over the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks
Range, as well as gap winds through the AK Range. Wind, warm
temperatures and low humidity are the reasons for the fire weather
concerns. The front will move northwest into the Brooks
Range/Eastern Interior this afternoon providing isolated to
scattered showers. It will run into a weak shortwave trough over
the West Coast with a ridge behind it in the Bering causing breezy
northerly winds over much of the West Coast. Moving into
tomorrow, hydro becomes the main concern as we are expecting an
abundance of rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope from Monday
to Wednesday. Rainfall may be in the order of 0.5 to 1.00 inches
which can cause rapid river rises, especially when combined with
snowmelt from the Brooks Range.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Red Flag Warnings in effect for Delta Junction and the Yukon
Flats through 8PM this evening.
- Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon with the highest
chance for rain expected in the Eastern Interior.
- Widespread rain moves into the southern Brooks Range tonight,
continues through Monday afternoon then subsides.
- Cooler temperatures expected on Monday with highs in the upper
60s to near 70. Warming trend through Wednesday, back into the
low to mid 70s across the area.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers expected this afternoon with highs in the 60s
and 70s for most spots. 40s and 50s around Kotzebue Sound and
the northern Seward Peninsula.
- Showers continue into Monday, mostly from Ambler/Shungnak
southward along the coast and towards Hooper Bay. Farther east
remains mostly dry.
- Temperatures are much cooler tomorrow, in the 50s and 60s for
most spots while remaining in the 40s from Kotzebue to Wales.
- Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 70s
in the Interior and 60s along the coast. A few showers are
possible around but most remain dry.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Moderate to heavy rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope from
tonight through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts near 0.50 to
1.0 inches expected from the Central Brooks Range to Deadhorse
while the Western Brooks Range/North Slope remain drier.
- Temperatures remain mild but trend upward through most of the
week, potentially in the 50s along the coast late this week.
- Warm temperatures leads to snowmelt in the Brooks Range. This
combined with rain may lead to areas of flooding near the
rivers. A Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday AM.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An occluded front associated with a low near the AK Peninsula is
helping to provide gusty southeast winds across much of the
Interior today. This front also supplies showers to many sections
of Northern Alaska with the Central Interior remaining mostly dry
due to chinook flow. Tonight, a surge of moisture from the Gulf of
Alaska will move northward, then northwest over the Brooks Range.
This plume of moisture is pretty anomalous and is coming with PWAT
values of 0.75 to 1.00" or more which is certainly more than
enough to cause rain, heavy at times. It will set up over the
Central Brooks Range beginning tonight, then gradually spread
north to the Arctic Coast tomorrow afternoon.
Taking a deeper dive, 500mb vorticity shows strong maxima moving
northwest over the Brooks Range and North Slope tonight into
tomorrow. This area of vorticity is combined with strong vertical
motion at 700mb and 850mb with frontogenesis at 850mb as well.
The 12z NAM depicts this vertical motion at around 10 to 20
microbars per second which is anomalously high, especially for the
northernmost latitudes of Alaska. Moving forward towards Tuesday,
this area of vorticity halts its northwestern progression as it
gets blocked by an upper low over the Chukchi Sea and begins to
pivot in place. This will allow for a north to south oriented
area of moderate or heavy rain to sit over 1 spot for hours on
end. Where that occurs will be the "bullseye" for heaviest
rainfall totals. With every mesoscale heavy rain feature, there
is uncertainty with placement and this is no different. We are
anticipating a pivoting rain band somewhere in the vicinity of
Anaktuvuk/Atigun Pass and between Point Thomson and Nuiqsut.
Areas underneath this rain band will see totals upwards of 0.5 to
1.0" or more. This can result in localized flooding as rivers rise
from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast.
Otherwise, generally lighter showers are expected in the Western
and Eastern Interior as the Central Interior gets chinooked.
Strong gap winds will persist through Monday morning then subside.
Overall, after Monday the rest of the week looks to be mostly dry
south of the Brooks Range. There will be a warming trend from
Monday through Wednesday and beyond as a ridge builds in. Summer
like weather will continue through the end of the week and into
next weekend and there may be some very active thunderstorm days
as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8PM this evening for
Delta Junction and the Yukon Flats. Expect south winds up to 55
mph in Delta Junction with min RHs around 25 to 30%, whereas the
Yukon Flats will have hot/dry/windy with temperatures in the upper
70s, winds up to 25 mph and min RHs around 25%. Tomorrow will be
cooler with calming winds and higher RHs across the board,
leaving little to no concern for worsening fire weather
conditions. Isolated to scattered showers are expected in the
Eastern and Western Interior with a drier pocket in the Central
Interior from chinook flow. The heaviest Interior rain will be in
the Western Interior from Ambler to St. Mary`s where 0.10" to
0.30" of rain is expected through Monday afternoon. The Brooks
Range will be getting a soaking rain from tonight through
Wednesday with localized amounts up to 1 inch. Otherwise, a
warming and drying trend takes hold from Tuesday onward with
minimal thunderstorm potential until Wednesday when storms begin
to move back into the Interior. Towards the end of the week and
next weekend, temperatures are expected to warm with some big
thunderstorm potential.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and
low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several
days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging
from about 40F to 60F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Rain is expected from Sunday night through Wednesday morning
across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope with
amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1.0 inches.
Most of the remaining snowpack is in the foothills and mountains
where temperatures and rainfall will be highest. The combination
of snow melt and rainfall is increasingly likely to result in
river rises.
Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which
leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This
contrasts with last year`s late breakup when the snowmelt all
entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday.
By the start of the extended period on Thursday, most of Alaska
will be under upper-level high pressure. However, an upper-level
low in the Bering Strait should prevent a ridge in the Bering from
building in out of the southwest. As a result, the high pressure
over the state looks to remain relatively weak through the
extended. This pattern supports warm temperatures, 70s in the
Interior, but also widespread afternoon convection. Thunderstorm
potential in the Interior should generally increase through the
latter half of the week as the pattern remains relatively stagnant
until Sunday.
Sunday, models depict an arctic trough swinging west to east
across the North Slope. The strength and timing of this trough is
somewhat uncertain, with the 12Z deterministic ECMWF having an
incredibly fast and aggressive solution, where the trough is
flung southward into Northern Alaska as a low. Ensemble guidance
is much more reserved with this feature, with weak ridging
persisting south of the Brooks Range. I`ll be treating the Euro as
an outlier, but given we`ve had one anomalous arctic trough
already this summer, I`m inclined to keep an eye on how the models
handle this Arctic trough going forward.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Flood Watch for AKZ804>810.
Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco
Troyke - Extended Discussion
370
FXAK68 PAFC 150110
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Sunday night through Wednesday evening)...
***Key Messages:
- Strong southeast winds continue this evening and begin to weaken
overnight.
- Showery precipitation along the Gulf coast tapers off Monday
morning. Rain continues around Kodiak Island through Tuesday.
- Calm conditions are expected across most of Southcentral going
into the middle of the week.
- Chance for isolated showers in the northern Copper River Basin
and Gulf Coast Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
Discussion:
A front moving into the Gulf Coast associated with a vertically
stacked low over the Alaska Peninsula (AkPen) has resulted in
gale- force winds across the Northern Gulf through the Barren
Islands and up to 0.5 inches of rain along the coast today. Strong
southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph have also
developed through the Turnagain Arm into the Anchorage Hillside
and at higher elevations of the Chugach Front Range and Kenai
Mountains.
The low over the AkPen begins to weaken tonight and the front
dissipates along the Gulf coast. Winds will slowly subside across
coastal Southcentral overnight. A coastal ridge will build in
Monday and allow some gap winds to persist. Though not as strong
as today, some small-craft winds may persist through the Barren
Islands and Kamishak Gap. Gusty winds through the Turnagain Arm
may continue to bend into South Anchorage through Monday evening.
A series of shortwaves will continue to rotate around the low
through Tuesday and maintain mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
across Southcentral. The first ones moving through tonight will
continue to bring showery precipitation to the Gulf Coast. A
secondary wave looks to move over Kodiak Island Monday. Rain
tapers off Monday morning for the Gulf Coast and Tuesday morning
for Kodiak Island. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches
along the Gulf coast and 0.5-1 inches around Kodiak Island are
expected.
Going into the middle of the week, low pressure moves from the
AkPen into the southwestern Gulf while weak ridging tries to
build over southern Alaska. This will promote a slightly warmer
and drier pattern for most of Southcentral with a mix of clouds
and sunshine as well as light winds. Isolated showers in higher
elevations are possible Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon,
with conditions most favorable in the northern Copper River Basin
and along the Gulf Coast. More scattered showers are possible
along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday, especially if the low in
the Gulf is further north than expected.
- PA
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon)...
As of this afternoon, a broad surface trough anchors two distinct
areas of low pressure - with one mostly stationary and just south
of Sand Point and Chignik with another situated over the Bristol
Bay waters. Radar returns depict widespread showers across
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula pivoting around the
northern most area of low pressure. Instability has been limited
due to temperatures stuck in the 50s and cloud cover for much of
the region, but there has been enough instability/warming in the
Kuskokwim Valley to touch off quite a few lightning strikes this
afternoon. This activity is very isolated in nature and should be
fairly short lived through the rest of the evening.
Looking westward, vertically stacked high pressure is centered
over the Western Aleutians with ridging extending eastward over
the Bering. The surface pressure gradient between this ridging and
the troughing across Southwest Alaska has formed a wide swath of
stout northerly 25 knot winds that have been moving across the
Pribilof Islands today. Northerly gap winds across the Aleutian
Chain have been elevated as well and will most likely stay that
way through tomorrow afternoon.
With the troughing not moving much over the next 12 to 16 hours,
rain shower activity will persist for Southwest Alaska through
Monday morning. There is high confidence of an additional tenth to
a quarter inch of rainfall, mainly west of the Kuskokwim Valley
through Monday morning. The global models show that the
aforementioned ridge begins to move eastward Monday afternoon,
which will essentially cause the low south of Sand Point and
Chignik to gain momentum and move eastward with time/exit the
region. There is good agreement among the global and hi-res models
that much of the rain shower coverage further decreases Tuesday
morning across Southwest Alaska, with only a chance of showers
expected Tuesday afternoon with the surface low moving into the
Gulf.
As the low exits, the ridging moves eastward and takes control of
the west-central Bering through Wednesday morning, keeping fog
and low stratus in the Bering through the rest of the short term.
-AM
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Southcentral: An upper level ridge over the Eastern Gulf of
Alaska moves eastward and a low south of Kodiak Island gradually
migrates northeastward. These will bring southerly flow to
Southcentral and Kodiak Island resulting in steady rain for Prince
William Sound and Eastern Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and
Thursday. The dry trend further inland Wednesday into Friday
remains 60% likely as models persistently show a cutoff of
moisture in the Anchorage Bowl, Western Kenai Peninsula and Mat-
Su Valleys.
As the week progresses though, the chance for thunderstorms and
rain showers returns for the Copper River Basin Thursday and
Friday. This chance spreads westward into the Susitna Valley next
Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in both placement and
exact timing of these weather elements from Thursday into next
weekend is low, the deep southerly push of moisture and the
introduction of a westerly-moving ridge from the Yukon is an
indicator of end of week / weekend thunderstorms and showers to
the area. The chance of occurrence over the four days for both the
Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley though increases as
high pressure in the Yukon strengthens and brings the ridge
farther west.
Southwest, Bering Sea and the Aleutians: A weak low moves across
the Bering Sea and over the Mainland bringing showers and cloudy
conditions mid-week. Fog and decreasing precipitation are expected
next weekend as high pressure builds in the Bering Sea.
-DJ
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Expect southeast winds to continue gusting near 40 kts
over the terminal through this afternoon and slowly diminish this
evening into the overnight hours. The strong southeast flow will
also keep the majority of rain confined to the coast and keep the
terminal mostly dry. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected to
continue throughout the TAF period. Southeast Turnagain Arm winds
look to clip the terminal once again Monday afternoon. However,
winds Monday afternoon are not expected to be nearly as strong as
today`s winds.
$$
289
FXAK67 PAJK 150602 AAA
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1002 PM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Periods of moderate to heavy rain continue into Monday as a
stronger system pushes from west to east across the panhandle.
- Slow drying trend from NW to SE next week; with widespread
warmer weather and drier conditions likely late in the week and
over the weekend.
SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...
A strong front is currently draped along the outer coast of the
panhandle, continuing moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds
through Sunday afternoon and overnight. The northeastern gulf
coast saw the brunt of the rain Sunday morning, receiving around 2
inches in the last 12 hours. The front is now moving inland up
north, allowing the heaviest rain rates to begin to taper off
through the afternoon. As of the time of writing, light rain has
reached much of the northern and central panhandle and will
continue to push east into the southern panhandle overnight. Winds
are expected to flip southeasterly and increase as the front
continues to push inland, but should largely decrease overnight.
QPF was bumped for Ketchikan and much of the interior panhandle
along the coastal range, as the moisture plume looks to shift
southeastward into the southern panhandle through Monday morning.
Expecting up to an inch for many locations along the interior
panhandle the southern panhandle, reaching up to 1.5 inches for
locations at higher elevations.
Rainfall will taper off overnight and through early Monday
morning along the outer coast, but may linger for the interior
panhandle into Tuesday. Onshore flow in the gulf will allow cloudy
skies and isolated to scattered shower development to continue
Monday into Tuesday, though mid-level moisture looks to get cut
off through the latter half of Tuesday. Other notable changes made
to the forecast was mainly centered around the high temperatures
for today, as increased cloud cover combined with the approaching
front has limited temperatures from reaching their full potential.
Highs in the high 50s to low 60s are expected through Tuesday,
with lows in the mid to low 50s.
LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/... An area of high
pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to
onshore flow and a general warming and drying trend for Southeast
Alaska. Some cloud cover and shower activity is expected to
remain given the onshore flow, and that looks to continue through
next weekend.
Thursday night into early Friday, a weak low pressure will become an
open wave and bring a chance for scattered showers to the Panhandle.
Right now, the system looks to be fairly weak and quick moving. A
high pressure system will develop behind this low, and lead to
diminishing rain chances and warming temperatures. Highs on Saturday
and Sunday look to be in the low 70s with fairly light winds for
most, but some stronger winds (15-20 kts) in the eastern Gulf where
the high pressure will lead to a tighter pressure gradient.
AVIATION...Most of the heavier rainfall has ended across the area
with many places reporting MVFR or VFR ceilings and Vis this
evening. Yakutat remains the exception with IFR conditions of 600
ft ceilings and 1.25 mile vis. As of 9 am the main band of
rainfall has settled over the southern panhandle from around
Frederick Sound southward though some lighter rainfall is in the
northern inner channels as well. There is another surge of rain
coming for the south in the next few hours as a weak low moves NE
along the front. This will likely lead to ceilings and vis
dropping to MVFR if they are not there already overnight.
Otherwise most other areas may have to deal with some fog or low
clouds overnight before improving tomorrow. Clouds will still
linger Monday for most areas with MVFR ceilings likely being the
norm for most of the day and into Monday night, but any lingering
rainfall will be on a diminishing trend through the day. Some
breezy surface winds this evening with some gusts to 25 kt in the
northern inner channels and along southern Clarence Strait. Those
winds will diminish by Monday morning and will then stay mostly
low through the day.
MARINE...
Outside (Eastern Gulf and Coastal Waters): Improving Conditions
after Sunday night, as a front moves east and into British
Columbia by Monday. Current SE flow along the coast will weaken
and turn out of the NW through Monday and Monday night. Winds will
diminish down towards 10-15 kt, with seas likewise subsiding from
9-12 ft down towards 5-7 ft. By Tuesday, flow turns more W, with
winds remaining around 10-15 kt. Swell will remain out of the S
through the first half of the week, although the Sunday afternoon
heights of 4-8 ft will diminish to 2-3 ft Monday and Tuesday.
By Thursday into Friday, a strengthening low level ridge will
bring NW flow in the SE Gulf and Dixon Entrance up to 20-25 kt.
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are increasing as an advancing
system results in winds turning out of the S and ramping up to
15-20 kt through the remainder of the Sunday. On Monday, winds
will slowly diminish back towards 10-15 kt (still out of the S),
and the system departs Southeast Alaska into British Columbia.
Winds will continue to diminish down to 5-10 kt for most locations
on Tuesday, with the exception of Lynn Canal (which will see S
wind of 15-20 kt), and Clarence Strait (NW wind 10-15 kt).
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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