374
FXAK68 PAFC 121308
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Several key features in place today that will come into play over
the next several days. Currently, high pressure remains over the
Bering Sea with another stout ridge entrenched over much of the
western Canadian Territories. Various low pressure systems are
positioned around and in between these areas of high pressure.
Several shortwaves have been transiting across the Bering Strait
and northern Alaska, helping to give a bit of lift to afternoon
convection over the past several days. A weak trough remains
stalled over the Central Chugach this morning but will lift
north through the Copper River Basin today. This feature will help
drive another round of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
from the foothills of the Talkeetna Mountains through the basin
to the Alaska Range. Much like previous days, the overall steering
flow remains relatively weak so any convective shower will result
in some brief heavy downpours. The nearly saturated marine layer
across Kennedy Entrance and Cook Inlet has resulted in the
redevelopment of widespread low stratus and fog that has advected
as far north as Willow and Palmer overnight. This area of low
clouds and fog will likely linger through mid morning before
slowly eroding.

Further south, a low moving up from the North Pacific into the
southwestern Gulf will bring gale force winds as the front lifts
across the Gulf. Gusty east to northeast winds are expected for
Kodiak Island with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall from Friday
afternoon through late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will
accompany the front as it quickly lifts through resulting in a
general 1-2 inches for many locations across Kodiak Island, though
some isolated 2-3 inches are possible especially for areas of
enhanced upslope flow. This low will track to the south of Kodiak
Island before stalling and weakening near Sand Point.

For interior locations, southeasterly gap winds will precede the
front as a coastal ridge builds, resulting in a tightening of the
surface pressure gradient between it and a trough over interior
Alaska. Expect gusts 30 to 40 mph for Turnagain Arm, West
Anchorage, and Palmer from late this afternoon through late
tonight.

The eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf coast will also
widespread rainfall as the front lifts through. Another low will
quickly move up along the eastern periphery of the aforementioned
low...quickly deepening before it lifts towards the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and weakens. This low will bring a modest surge of
moisture north with another round of moderate to heavy
rainfall for the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound.

- PP/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday afternoon)...

The pattern of fog in the Bering, and convective systems over
Southwest Alaska is expected to continue today and tonight, but
will be changing as a new low pressure system makes it`s approach
Saturday. In the Southwest interior, warmer weather and rain
showers/thunderstorms continue this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon, then conditions cool and stabilize under increasing
cloud cover this weekend. Along the Southwest coast, fog this
morning will retreat into the Bering by the afternoon, and
continue to weaken/lift into the weekend.

Ample surface heating over the Southwest Alaska interior will
continue to promote afternoon convective activity, with isolated
wet thunderstorms possible this, and Friday afternoon. Similarly
isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday, however will likely
be consolidated to northern extent of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
if they develop. Drier and hotter conditions over the interior of
Southwest will continue to be a forecast focus today and tomorrow,
and how the uptick in winds from the incoming low pressure system
plays a role. For now, this is fringing on ideal fire weather
conditions, with temperatures expected in the low 70s, RHs near
30, and wind speeds near 10 mph this afternoon.

The new low pressure system poised to approach the southern
Alaska Peninsula by late this afternoon will bring the
aforementioned uptick in easterly offshore winds to the Bristol
Bay area and portions of interior Southwest Alaska. This system`s
rainfall and movement in the overall air column will bring a
reprieve in the fog over the area, but replace it with continued
low stratus and light rain. Easterly gale-force winds are expected
to establish over the southern side of the Peninsula, including
for communities such as Sand Point, persisting into Saturday
morning. Dillingham may see winds gusting as strong as 40 to 50
mph peaking late Saturday afternoon. The highest rain amounts will
be along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula (including
Chignik) at around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from Friday into the
weekend. Rain amounts outside of this area will be much lower, as
the bulk of moisture will remain limited to the Pacific and Gulf
coasts.

-CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

Starting early next week, there will be an upper level trough over
mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska/Kodiak Island, with a ridge
upstream over the Bering Sea/Aleutians. This will be the tail end
of wet and windy weather across much of southern AK and bordering
coastal waters, with showers and clouds lingering across much of
the region. As we continue through the week, the high amplitude
trough will exit eastward to Canada, leaving a weak flow regime
with weak embedded features. The subtropical jetstream over the
North Pacific will also weaken through the week, with a noted
absence of strong storm systems. Thus, the pattern looks very
"summer-like", with daily afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms over southern AK driven by surface heating and
resulting instability and generally light winds across much of the
Aleutian, Gulf and southern AK coastal waters. While the week
will start out cloudy, expect increasing sunshine and warming
temperatures through the week. High pressure will remain centered
across the southern Bering and Aleutians, so widespread low clouds
and fog will be common.

-SEB

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A light up-inlet flow will persist this morning, allowing
another marine stratus layer to return over the Terminal through
around noon. Expect LIFR or IFR conditions through mid-morning due
to both the low stratus and areas of fog moving in and out of the
terminal. Similar to yesterday, IFR to MVFR conditions may persist
through late morning or around noon before the marine layer
retreats back over Cook Inlet and VFR conditions prevail. Once the
marine layer advects back over the inlet, VFR conditions are
expected through Saturday. Another reason for the improved cigs
and vis later today will be the development of a southeasterly
Turnagain Arm wind that is expected to clip West Anchorage and
the terminal by late afternoon or early evening. Wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph are possible this evening before the the pressure
gradient shifts and the Turnagain Arm bends away from the terminal
and down Cook Inlet, likely between 1 AM and 3 AM. LLWS will be
possible early Saturday morning as the surface winds become
northerly while winds aloft remain southeasterly. The
southeasterly winds off Turnagain Arm are expected to move back
over the terminal Saturday afternoon.


&&


$$

684
FXAK67 PAJK 122318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Dry weather continues through the remainder of Friday.

- A front arriving on Saturday brings periods of rain and wind,
especially to the northern and central panhandle. Drier weather
will linger in the south.

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain expected for Sunday and Monday
as a stronger system pushes across the entire panhandle.

- Slow drying trend from N to S next week; with widespread warm
weather and drier conditions possible as we approach the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Quiet weather comes to an end through the day on Saturday as a gale
force front arrives in the northern gulf, ahead of a plume of
moisture arriving on Sunday and Monday which will bring periods of
widespread rainfall across SE AK.

Skies have largely cleared across the area, as offshore flow has
eroded away what was left of a marine layer earlier this morning.
Aside from scattered cumulus clouds, along with a few broken decks
for locations like Gastineau Channel. Expect the remainder of Friday
to be similarly pleasant.

This situation will come to an end through Saturday as a gale
force front moves into the northern gulf. Already, satellite
imagery depicts the front and its associated low strengthening
south of Kodiak, even as they swiftly move north. ASCAT wind
passes are indicating the ongoing development of a band of gale
force winds, which will impact the northern gulf Saturday evening.
As the front moves up, drier weather early Saturday morning gives
way to rain and windy conditions, mainly for areas north of Sumner
Strait with rain and wind especially prevalent along the NE Gulf
Coast. The front will rapidly weaken as it tries to push inland,
and think that much of the south/central panhandle will see little
to no rain from this initial push. A significantly stronger plume
of moisture will take aim Saturday night into Sunday at the
northern Gulf Coast (specifically Yakutat), before moving E
through the day on Monday across the panhandle. Operational
guidance has fallen into better agreement on the the plume of
moisture, bringing it initially into Yakutat late Saturday night
before veering east into the rest of SE AK on Monday. Upwards of
2-4 inches of rain are likely to fall for Yakutat proper, with 1-2
inches of rain for the northern and central panhandle, and up to
1-1.5 inches inches for the south. While rainfall amounts are
impressive for the dry season, they remain relatively lackluster
when compared to stronger fall systems, and most locations are
unlikely to break even 1 year Atmospheric Return Intervals (ARIs).
Beyond Sunday, the jet stream looks set to take up a relatively
zonal flow across the far southern panhandle through the first
half of the week, paving the way for additional shortwaves to
bring in more precipitation. For additional information, see the
long term forecast discussion.

Temperatures beyond Friday are likely to remain on the moderate
side for the central and northern panhandle through early next
week, with highs in the 50s and 60s for most locations.
Temperatures in the southern panhandle by contrast will be in the
60s and 70s, as drier weather and the potential for continuing
breaks in the clouds remain until the second system sweeps
eastward Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/... After the heaviest rain
passes through the area with the front Sunday, rain chances will
decrease through the day Monday for the Northern Panhandle. With
onshore flow across Southeast Alaska, there will be at least some
rain chances for the area through next Friday.

Monday, high pressure will develop in the Gulf, and it will begin a
drying and warming trend. By Friday, high temperatures look to
approach 70 for the Northern Panhandle.

Tuesday, with the jet stream across southern portions of the area,
there is potential for a low pressure system to develop. If this low
can develop, it will increase wind speeds and rain chances for areas
generally south of Fredrick Sound. As of now, ensembles keep rain
chances fairly low for the Southern Panhandle. Confidence in this
low pressure forming is fairly low, but it is a situation worth
monitoring.

.AVIATION.../Through 00z Sunday/...
Widespread VFR conditions continue over the panhandle, with
relatively clear skies and light winds persisting through the
afternoon. Upper level clouds begin to move in from the southwest
overnight, blanketing the panhandle in overcast CIGs through
Saturday. The associated frontal band will move into the outer
coast of the panhandle through the early morning hours, and is
mainly expected to impact the northern outer coast and parts of
the central outer coast. Communities in the Icy Strait Corridor
also have a chance of seeing some light rainfall with this front,
but it may have difficulty reaching all the way to Juneau. CIGs
will drop to MVFR at times, mainly in Yakutat, where the majority
of impacts are expected. Winds will pick up with the initial onset
of the front, but aren`t expected to reach much higher than 10 to
15 knots and will mainly impact the northern panhandle. Another,
stronger front is expected to jump into the gulf just after the
period, and will continue lowered conditions through Saturday
night and into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Eastern Gulf): For the weekend, gale force winds along
the northern coast, fresh seas as high as 20 ft, and heavy rain
are the main threats.

Further detail: For Friday afternoon, winds are light across the
coast, with sea state dominated by southerly swell 17 seconds at 3
feet. Winds will continue to turn southeast in response to an
approaching low; the mighty tug Arctic Titan is always showing SE
winds near Cape St. Elias Friday morning. Currently, this system
of interest is near 50N 152W and moving north, with ASCAT/OSCAT
Satellite wind passes highlighting gale force easterly winds on
the northern flank. Southeast winds continue to build along our
coast; anticipate near-gale force to strong breezes by Saturday
morning with seas building to 10 to 14 ft.

These winds will ebb a bit Saturday afternoon, don`t let this
lull you into a false sense of security. Winds will ramp up
quickly Saturday night, with gale force winds expected to start
sometime near 12 AM to 6 AM Sunday morning, with the heaviest
winds west of the Fairweather Grounds to Cape St. Elias. There
could be localized areas of storm force conditions for a brief
period of time just south of Cape Suckling. Wave guidance has
struggled with significant wave heights Sunday; keeping things
simple, expect short period fresh seas of at least 17 ft to as
high as 20 ft near Cape St. Elias. Again, the heaviest conditions
will be near Cape St. Elias and east toward the Fairweather
Grounds. For folks south of Cross Sound, especially along the
coast of PoW, expect winds of fresh to strong breezes and seas of
9 to 12 ft. Winds and seas begin to relax Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds slowly ramp up Saturday, reaching
peak intensity Sunday.

Further detail: For the inside, sea breezes are the main threat
Friday afternoon, but winds look lighter than what we have seen
the previous few days. Moving through the weekend, winds will
become southerly as a gale force low moves into the gulf, pulling
the winds up and out of the Panhandle. For this surface pressure
regime, the main problem areas Saturday look to be Chatham Strait,
Peril Strait, and Icy Strait, with the potential to see winds of
at least moderate breezes by Saturday afternoon. For the remainder
of the region, there will likely be much less wind until Sunday
as the low begins to jump ashore, bringing widespread winds of
moderate to fresh breezes across the inside.

A note on Glacier Bay for Sunday: Mariners navigating the upper
arms of Glacier Bay Sunday should be aware of an occluding front
moving over the region. Anticipate southeasterly to build Sunday
before this front moves over, which could bring pretty intense
southerly winds to inlets exposed to the south like Reid Inlet.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Musall
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...AP

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