Red Flag Warnings/Watches Map | Text Products | Spot Forecast Request | Forecast Discussion | Operating Plan
902
FXAK69 PAFG 082335
AFDAFG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
335 PM AKDT Thu May 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Most snow over the Alaska Range will be coming to an end by this
evening, with most accumulations focused west of the Parks
Highway. Elevated terrain locations in the Interior will see
chances for showers during the daytimes this week which will be
driven by solar heating. A low pressure area over the Arctic
will lead to moderate westerly winds over the eastern Arctic
Coast which could lead to some blowing snow. Generally warmer
weather is expected from today into early next week across the
Interior ahead of a low moving into the Bering Sea, which will
usher in some more unsettled weather.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
Some residual snow over parts of the Alaska Range, mostly west
of the Parks Highway, will be ending by this evening.
Elsewhere, some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
will be possible, especially in the terrain.
- Snow in the Alaska Range, mostly in remote parts west of the
Parks Highway, should end by tonight.
- There will be chances each day for showers in the higher
terrain areas of the Interior. Any showers that form will be
driven by daytime heating and will mostly fade away overnight.
- Isolated thunderstorms among these showers will also be
possible each day over the southeastern Interior, especially
east of Delta Junction.
- Temperatures warming into the upper 50s and 60s expected from
today into next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Light rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are
possible today in the Norton Sound area. Warmer temperatures are
likely through the weekend.
- Light rain showers today over the YK Delta and Norton Sound
areas.
- Isolated thunderstorms during the daytimes over the Kuskokwim
and Lower Yukon Valleys.
- Temperatures across much of the West Coast and Western
Interior rise into the 50s by Friday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
Extensive cloud cover and fog is expected to continue on the
Arctic Coast, especially in areas to the east. West winds south
of an Arctic low will pick up over the eastern Arctic Coast
this weekend.
- West winds sustained into the 20 to 30 mph range, with higher
gusts, are possible over the eastern Arctic Coast this
weekend with low pressure well to the northeast.
- Snow will be possible Saturday into Sunday across most of the
Arctic Coast and could exacerbate any blowing snow where it
combines with the stronger west winds. Visibilities below one
mile are not expected to be widespread at the current time.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 530 dm upper-level low is focused south of St. Lawrence
Island, and rain will be possible along its northern periphery
through Friday. A vertically-stacked 533 dm upper-level low
over the Gulf of Alaska is colocated with a 1008 mb surface low.
Much of the Interior, especially in the higher here will be
additional chances for isolated thunderstorms in the southeast
Interior each day during the daytime. A 519 dam low on Monday
will bring a broad area of precipitation, mostly rain, to the
West Coast, with lesser totals possible in the Interior on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Most of the highest winds with the low
will likely remain offshore, although some general east winds
across Northern Alaska are likely.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
Much warmer is expected across the Interior and much of the West
Coast from Friday into next week, when widespread 50s and 60s
will be likely. Minimum relative humidity values in the upper
20s and 30s today will continue through the weekend, with
periods of lower 20s possible in the Middle Tanana Valley on
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible each day this week
in the southeastern Interior as well as in the Kuskokwim and
Lower Yukon River Valleys during the daytime. Brief gusty winds
are possible from any showers or thunderstorms that form. Sunday
will see west winds pick up over the Interior south of a low
pressure center in the eastern Brooks Range. Valley locations
could see sustained winds in the 10 to 15 mph range with higher
gusts, with higher winds possible in the higher terrain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Yukon River at Ft. Yukon broke up Tuesday with minor
flooding from an ice jam that released overnight into Wednesday
morning. The breakup front remained stalled at 6 Mile Island
below Ft. Yukon as of early Wednesday afternoon while water
levels have continued to drop at Ft. Yukon. The water that has
been carrying the breakup front has continued downstream and is
helping to lift and shift the ice between Ft. Yukon and Beaver;
however without a pulse of water from upstream breakup may be
slowed for a few days. The timing of the breakup front reaching
Stevens Village and the Dalton Highway bridge could be anywhere
from 1-5 days. The River Watch team plans one more flight to
this reach on Thursday to monitor the progression and will
provide updates as information becomes available.
Visit http://www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest river updates.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Unsettled weather is expected across much of the area early
next week as a vertically-stacked low moves into the eastern
Bering Sea. While there are some model differences in the exact
timing and placement of the low, there is general agreement a
front sweeping across the area, with a broad area of rain along
the front. The 12Z GFS has the broadest and heaviest rain, with
up to several tenths of an inch of liquid possible in the YK
Delta and Lower Yukon River Valley, with lesser totals possible
across most of the Interior. The 12Z ECMWF solution still yields
some heavy rain in Western Alaska but is more constrained on
precipitation in the Interior, and the same holds for its
ensemble mean. While there will be elevated winds, mostly in the
20 to 30 mph range, the highest winds are likely to remain
offshore. The YK Delta could still see south winds pick up to
over 20 mph on Monday before the low moves out of the area.
General east winds across the area are also likely.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&
$$
DS
317
FXAK68 PAFC 091317
AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT Fri May 9 2025
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A ridge of high pressure over the Interior will keep skies mostly
sunny throughout Southcentral today as a weak low in the central
Gulf continues to weaken. Some afternoon cumulus may develop with
some showers possible on the Kenai Peninsula, southern Copper
Valley and Kodiak Island, otherwise the drying trend will
continue. The next 3 days will likely be the warmest observed this
spring with multiple days of high pressure ridging setting up.
The existing ridge over the Interior will connect with a high
amplitude ridge developing over the north Pacific starting
Saturday. This will bring in subsidence and northwest flow aloft,
both combining to bring widespread sunshine and warmer
temperatures throughout the region through Mother`s Day. The high
pressure will quickly get pushed off to the east on Monday as a
broad low pressure system in the Bering sends a front and strong
upper level shortwave into Southcentral. This will bring
widespread rain and some mountain snow to start the work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...
Generally cloudy, wet, and windy weather for the Bering Sea,
Aleutian Islands, and Alaska Peninsula through Saturday. For
Southwest Alaska, generally sunny with afternoon convection. From
late Saturday night through Monday morning, much more active
weather is in store across the region as a strong low moves from
the North Pacific into the Bering Sea. Currently, a Flood Advisory
is in effect along the Kuskokwim River near Napakiak and along
Brown`s Slough in Bethel.
Diving into the details...a low northwest of Nikolski this morning
will linger in the area through the afternoon, then curve towards
the northwest Bering Sea through Saturday. Its front is currently
bringing gusts as high as 30-45 mph across the Eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula, as well as steady rain. Conditions
begin improving later this afternoon as the low moves towards the
Pribilof Islands and the front begins to weaken.
With the front progressing no further east than the Alaska
Peninsula, the remainder of Southwest Alaska will see fairer
weather today. Clearer skies will allow for good daytime heating,
with temperatures today forecast to rise into the high 50s. While
this will likely be enough to spur on some convection, dewpoint
temperatures hovering in the 20s to 30s will likely make the
environment too moisture-limited for strong convection. An
isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible for Kuskokwim Valley
and the Lime Village area, but the likelihood is lower than
previously forecast.
By late Saturday night, a North Pacific low will strengthen as it
moves into the Bering Sea. Forecast confidence has steadily
improved, but there remains some forecast uncertainty. Confidence
is fairly high that winds will reach gale force with this storm,
with the potential for storm force gusts. Unless model guidance
shifts drastically, it looks like forecast uncertainty with this
storm will mostly pertain to timing differences. One other item of
note is the potential for onshore, southeasterly flow to bring
elevated coastal water levels to the Kuskokwim Delta coast, around
Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. We`ll continue to monitor this
potential as we hone in on the forecast for this storm.
-Chen
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...
An amplified upper-level low spans from the Bering Sea to
Southeast Alaska. Strong southerly flow and ample moisture will
bring steady precipitation across the Alaska Peninsula on Monday
morning and the Panhandle by Tuesday morning. Unsettled weather
will continue across Southwest on Tuesday as a second system
crosses the central Aleutians and lingers in the Bering Sea, and
again on Wednesday for Southcentral when a triple point along its
front sweeps across the Gulf on Wednesday to reach the Southeast
part of the state by Thursday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC... Ceilings will drop into MVFR with rain showers this
morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions as chances for showers
will decrease today. Up-Inlet flow along with Turnagain winds will
return today, bringing southerly wind to the terminal. Cook Inlet
winds will strengthen this afternoon with a sea breeze that will
likely shift winds westerly for a few hours this afternoon. Winds
weaken tonight and become northerly after midnight.
&&
$$
378
FXAK67 PAJK 091202
AFDAJK
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 AM AKDT Fri May 9 2025
.SHORT TERM...Low pressure continues to remain over the Gulf this
morning while rain continues to spread northward. The heaviest
rain is expected this morning into the afternoon for the central
panhandle. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the area through
tomorrow. Winds across the area are expected to increase as the
next low moves into the panhandle this evening bringing a
reinforcing wave of rain to the area.
.LONG TERM...Much better consensus between ensemble members regarding
timing and location of heaviest rain rates for the central and
southern panhandle. Saturday will see the final of multiple waves
moving up along the front in the eastern gulf. An embedded wave will
be near Prince of Wales Island, and push into the Yukon over the
morning hours. Associated with this wave will be moderate to heavy,
with rain rates maximizing around 0.1 inches per hour. Southerly
winds look to remain steady at around a fresh to strong breeze in
the very early hours of Saturday. Behind the wave moving northward
is a weak cold front in the eastern gulf, which is expected to move
to the east slowly over the course of Saturday. In the post frontal
environment, winds and rain are expected to diminish quite rapidly.
Good confidence that the cold front will push as far east as
Petersburg down to Hydaburg, but some solutions are keeping the
moisture tap over the southern panhandle well into Saturday
afternoon. While dynamics aloft do not look to support heavier
rainfall beyond Saturday afternoon, lingering rain in the area may
continue into Saturday Night.
Sunday will see the first day in southeast Alaska with widespread
clearing skies and warmer temperatures. Skies look to clear from
northwest to southeast, so areas in the southern panhandle will
likely see clearing later in the day. Expect temperatures in the mid
to upper 50s with some areas possibly exceeding 60 degrees.
For Monday, a shortwave aloft looks to come racing across the
northern gulf, associated with a broad upper level low in the Bering
Sea. An associated surface low will extend a fast moving front over
the panhandle, bringing more rain and wind to the area. Not
expecting winds higher than a fresh breeze, mainly for the Icy
Strait area and north. Main area of concern would be the quickly
dropping pressure in northern B.C. and pressure rises behind the
front could bring up to stronger winds of 20-25 knots to northern
Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and Skagway. .
&&
.AVIATION...As the next wave of rain moves north, MVFR conditions
are expected to spread through the panhandle today with those
conditions lasting well into tonight.
There will be a lull in the LLWS later this afternoon into this
evening, but as the next shortwave tracks north, another round of
LLWS will spread north for tonight and could last into Saturday
morning.
&&
.MARINE...Outside Waters: Winds are expected to come up this
evening with the potential for for winds reaching up to near gales
for the outer coast. Especially for places that see gap winds.
Seas are expected to build as well in the same areas with the
increasing winds. Sea heights are expected to reach up to 10 ft
while farther north, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft.
Heading into the weekend, light winds are expected for the outside
waters as high pressure builds into the area.
Inside Waters: Winds this morning continue to be light for most
locations with the few exceptions of Clarence Strait and
east/west oriented locations such as Cape Spencer and Scull
Island. Wind speeds are expected to come up today with wind speeds
getting up to 20 to 25 kt for the Inner Channels. Most places
will see winds decrease as we head into Saturday with the
exception of Clarence Strait as well as parts of Stephens Passage.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>036-641>644-651-661>664-671.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau
