214
FXAK68 PAFC 291445
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 AM AKST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

The forecast remains largely on track with regards to a potential
mixed precipitation event across a significant portion of
Southcentral Alaska over this weekend. A shield of upper-level
clouds has begun to spread across much of the area ahead of an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough and the associated warm
front. Patchy fog that developed early in the overnight hours
across portions of the Kenai and Anchorage appears to be lingering
around underneath the upper-level cloud cover. Any lingering fog
this morning should gradually dissipate over the next several
hours as an increase in winds help mix the lower atmosphere.

Precipitation will overspread much of the outlook area from south
to north, first reaching Kodiak and the Kenai Peninsula this
morning, then spreading inland later today. A nose of warm air
will move in aloft as temperatures above freezing stream northwest
overtop of cooler temperatures in place across the Mat-Su,
Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula right around the same time
precipitation moving in ahead of the front arrives. This will
create a favorable temperature profile for a wintry mix of sleet,
snow and freezing rain roughly along an axis from Anchor Point up
to Willow and Palmer. Winter Weather Advisories are now set to go
into effect midday Saturday for this entire corridor.

Across the Winter Weather Advisory areas, icing amounts do not
look likely to be all that significant (no more than 0.10") due to
a couple limiting factors. First off, increasing easterly flow
will increase downslope drying with time, limiting precipitation
intensity. Secondly, east to northeast winds will pick up sharply
at the surface by Saturday evening as a northeast to southwest
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching frontal wave.
This will tend to increase mixing with time, allowing temperatures
to warm a few degrees above freezing across most of the Mat
Valley, Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula from Saturday night
into early Sunday. However, there could be a few cold pockets that
linger into Sunday where winds do not materialize, such as east
Anchorage and the southern end of the Susitna Valley. This could
allow isolated areas to still see occasional periods of freezing
rain lingering into much of Sunday.

Looking more into the start of next week, the active and warm
pattern shows no signs of abating. From Sunday into Monday, a
shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move north into
the eastern Gulf as the front moves into the Gulf coast and
weakens. Models have struggled mightily to hone in on the track of
this system, though there has been a fairly distinct west shift
for the expected trajectory of this system. The consensus is that
the low will stall just south of the the Kenai Peninsula, then
possibly shift more northeast towards Prince William Sound as the
upper trough continues to lift north somewhere over the eastern
half of Southcentral. This could actually favor a period of
accumulating wet snow across the western Kenai Peninsula up into
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, depending on exactly where the
upper trough tracks and how much temperatures can cool back down
in the lower levels as precipitation moves back in from the west.
It is worth emphasizing, however, that this is a complex pattern
with a lot of room for more changes to how things evolve. Be sure
to monitor the forecast for updates as we continue to follow this
very active pattern into early next week.

-Brown/AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

**Key Message: A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the
Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim Valley from late tonight through
Tuesday afternoon for up to 2" of snowfall and up to 0.20" of ice
accumulation.**

A large system in the North Pacific remains south of the Aleutian
Chain with a gale force front that continues north across the
Southwest mainland. Gale force winds will continue westward
through Bristol Bay and south across the Bering Sea, diminishing
overnight into Sunday near the coastal mainland. Precipitation
from this system will lift into Bristol Bay and inland north of
Dillingham by this afternoon. The Y-K Delta is expected to remain
drier due to downsloping until early Sunday. Precipitation is then
expected to continue for most of Southwest Alaska through Monday.

For areas under the Winter Storm Watch, particularly farther
inland across the Kuskokwim Delta where surface temperatures are
lower, freezing rain will likely persist through late Monday
before transitioning back to a rain/snow mix. Ice accumulation is
expected to remain light, at two tenths of an inch, and less than
2 inches of snow through the forecast period.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Uncertainty continues to be an issue in the long term. A North
Pacific low is projected to track into the Bering Sea with the
leading front bringing widespread precipitation and gale force to
storm force winds from the northeast direction across much of the
Bering Sea. Winds along the western periphery of the low will
become northerly as it crosses the western Aleutians.
Precipitation type is the main challenge for the mainland for the
early part of next week as cool temperatures remain at the surface
and warmer air filters across the region aloft. Although the low
weakens in the southern Bering, it is not entirely clear how long
this forecast challenge will persist through the rest of the week.
This system appears to bring a prolonged pattern, especially for
southwest Alaska with strong winds, precipitation, and warm
southerly air moving over cool northerly air. For the Gulf and
Southcentral, waves of surface lows and fronts will transit the
Gulf, but some uncertainty remains to its strength and trajectory
into the northern Gulf or eastern Gulf. At the least, expect
showers to continue for coastal areas with less clarity for the
long term weather conditions farther inland. Toward the last half
of the week though, a strong front moves into the western Bering
Sea from a Kamchatka low. Storm force gusts seem more likely along
the front but may be stunted progress as it bumps into a narrow
area of high pressure in the central Aleutians and Bering Sea. An
upper level blocking pattern seems possible with high pressure to
the north and areas of low pressure with embedded disturbances
transiting south and along the Aleutians. Breezy gap winds across
Southcentral will be possible for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with ceilings above 5000 ft and light
northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. Precipitation
chances increase this afternoon with the arrival of another
frontal system. A mix of freezing rain and snow is possible
initially, with ceilings and visibility dropping to MVFR.
Temperatures gradually increase through the evening and overnight,
so lingering precipitation eventually turns over to all rain. A
light glaze to a tenth of an inch of ice is possible. Ceilings and
visibility improve back to VFR after midnight with diminishing
precipitation. Another round of light precipitation is possible on
Sunday, with more uncertain timing. This is expected to fall as a
mix of rain and snow with minimal chances for freezing rain.
Ceilings and visibility potentially drop back to MVFR during
heavier precipitation, especially if snow.

Quesada

&&


$$

349
FXAK67 PAJK 291802
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
902 AM AKST Sat Nov 29 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include the 18Z TAF issuance.
The forecast remains largely on track this morning. Winds have
remained light with clear skies over a large majority of the
panhandle. Some areas of patchy fog have developed, but it is
very thin and occurring only over very isolated areas. The next
larger system arrives late tonight into Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Relatively benign winds and partly cloudy skies continue until
a gale force system arrives overnight Saturday into Sunday.

- Widespread precipitation and strong winds Sunday, with
potential for accumulating snowfall in the northern panhandle.
A winter storm watch has been issued for the Klondike Highway.

- Another system arrives Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...The remnants of the
previous front has moved out of Yakutat overnight, allowing for
light patches of fog to attempt to develop in the early morning
hours. The rest of the panhandle is seeing partly cloudy, dry
conditions that will persist through Saturday morning before a
gale force front moves into the eastern gulf Saturday night.

As the system approaches the panhandle, cloud cover will move
inland and PoPs will increase along the northern gulf coast.
Southeast 10 to 15 kt winds in the central gulf Saturday morning
will pick up to 25 to 30 kts going into Sunday. Weak outflow winds
less than 5 kts over the panhandle will persist through Saturday
before turning more onshore and beginning to increase overnight.
By Sunday morning, strong gale force sustained winds in the
coastal waters of the northeastern gulf will be pushing inland,
primarily from Cape Edgecumbe through Cape Suckling. Storm force
gusts are likely along the northernmost gulf coast with the peak
of the system midday Sunday. As the system pushes onshore through
Sunday afternoon, 25 to 30 kt winds with gale force gusts will
increase through the inner channels and in unsheltered coastal
communities. Strong winds will steadily decrease overnight into
Monday.

This system is expected to bring moderate to heavy precipitation
Sunday, with heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6
hours expected Sunday evening. Yakutat will be hit first and the
hardest, with around 2.5 inches expected in 24 hours. The rest of
the northern and outer coast of the panhandle will see between 1
and 1.5 inches in 24 hours while the southern panhandle will see
between half and 1 inch. Cooler overnight temperatures going into
Sunday will increase potential for precipitation to start as snow
for much of the northern panhandle, turning into a mix through the
morning. Snow melt cooling should help to keep temperatures near
freezing through the morning, allowing snow accumulations for
locations near sea level. Communities along the Icy Strait
Corridor may see 1.5 to 2 inches of accumulating snow, beginning
to mix with rain toward the latter half of the morning. Up north,
Haines and Skagway are expected to see between 2 to 4 inches of
accumulating snow, mixing before transitioning over to rain by
Sunday evening. Accumulating snow is expected to stick around for
the Klondike and Haines Highways into Monday morning before
transitioning into rain, with the Klondike Highway set to receive
6 to 10 inches of snow from this system. The Haines Highway will
likely see closer 4 inches. A winter storm watch has been issued
for the Klondike Highway past mile post 6 through late Sunday
night.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/... Onshore flow
largely continues through Monday night as another wave of
precipitation moves through closely behind the remnants of the
frontal system from Sunday, before chances begin to diminish across
the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday morning. The warming across
the panhandle following the Sunday system will keep the area
transitioned to rain by Monday, with the exceptions of the highways.
The heaviest rain from Sunday will have passed, with much lower QPF
amounts expected into Monday, diminishing into Monday morning. The
only area that is expected to see snow is along the highways, with
more of a mix on the Haines Highway and wet, dense snow along the
Klondike Highway Monday, with accumulation of less than an inch
Monday. Tuesday continues to show confidence on a low level ridge
forming over the panhandle, as well as 500 mb ridging rebuilding
over the Gulf again after the prior upper level shortwave moved
through by Monday, allowing for a brief lull on Tuesday. This
however will mainly be for the southern half of the panhandle, as
the position of the ridge will allow for some onshore flow to remain
moving into the NE Gulf coast and keeping PoPs higher Icy Strait
corridor northward and some light precipitation over the area. The
southern panhandle will still see some cloud cover even with the
ridging setting up, though precipitation chances will decrease to 20
to 40% Monday night through midday Tuesday.

The next front moving through will begin to impact the NE Gulf Coast
and Yakutat areas into Tuesday night, before moving eastward across
the panhandle. This front will move across the panhandle through
Wednesday, bringing another round of rain and continued warmer
temperatures to the panhandle. Highs for the northern half of the
panhandle will be in the mid to high 40s, while the southern
panhandle will see temperatures around 50 degrees, bringing us close
to some record temperatures for this time of year if these warmer
temperatures pan out. In terms of precipitation, the majority of the
panhandle will see 850 mb temperatures warming to around 0 degrees
C, and snow levels between 3000 and 5000 ft alongside the warmer
temperatures and wet bulbs at the surface, bringing light to
moderate rain across the area and snow mixing in only at higher
elevations. The only area not expecting rain will be the Klondike
Highway, with snow levels remaining just around 3000 ft allowing for
wetter snow to continue, but with little to no accumulation
expected. Overall the NE Gulf coastline will see between 1 and 2
inches of rain in 24 hours from this system Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and generally less than 1 inch in 24 hours for the rest
of the panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions continue across the panhandle with clear
skies over most of the area. Along with scattered to clear skies,
low winds will persist well into tonight before the next front
starts to make its way over the panhandle. This front will first
impact coastal areas starting late tonight into Sunday morning. This
system will bring lowered ceilings and visibilities into MVFR flying
conditions, with times of IFR possible, as moderate to heavy
precipitation spreads across the panhandle. Precipitation will
mainly be rain, with areas of snow or wintry mix from the Icy
Strait Corridor northward Sunday morning. Winds will also increase
with LLWS around 2000 ft returning. LLWS will first return near
the northeast coast before spreading inland affecting almost all
of the panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Southeasterly winds in the central gulf have decreased
to 10 to 15 kts overnight, seeing only a brief break before the
next system moves into the eastern gulf through Saturday. A large
swath of 25 to 30 kt winds moving towards the northeastern outer
coast of the gulf through Saturday evening will continue to
intensify overnight. By Sunday morning, strong southeasterly gale
force winds (41 to 47 kts) with potential for storm force gusts
(48 to 55 kts) will be pushing inland the coast from Cape Ommaney
to Cape Suckling. Strongest winds from Cape Spencer to Cape
Suckling are expected to peak through midday Sunday. Gulf winds
largely decrease to fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
overnight with southwesterly onshore flow continuing through
Monday. Another system is set to move into the eastern gulf
Tuesday.

Wave heights have decreased to around 5 to 7 ft through Sunday
morning, and are expected to steadily increase through Saturday
afternoon to eventually return to 10 to 15 ft at a period of 10
seconds by Sunday morning. Heights will increase to 15 to 22 ft
along the northeastern gulf coast where winds are strongest midday
Sunday. The gulf will return to a more uniform 10 to 15 ft with a
longer period of 15 to 18 seconds by Sunday night. South to
southwesterly 5 ft swell will be overtaken by 10 to 15 ft of
southerly swell following the front Sunday morning before turning
southwesterly and decreasing to 8 to 10 ft.

Inside: Very weak outflow winds around 5 kts through the inner
channels will remain light through Saturday before the gale force
front moves into the eastern gulf overnight into Sunday. Winds
ahead of the front will turn onshore and proceed to largely
increase to strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) early
Sunday morning. Icy Strait winds will remain easterly through
Sunday. As the front continues to push onshore through the day,
gale force gusts (34 to 40 kts) will increase through the
channels. Wave heights around 1 to 2 ft will increase to around 4
to 6 ft following the stronger winds, with channel entrances
seeing up to 10 ft through Sunday night. Winds and waves will
steadily decrease through Monday before another system moves into
the eastern gulf Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...ZTK

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