788
FXAK68 PAFC 011339
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 AM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Wednesday)...

As of 430am, latest radar imagery shows precipitation gradually
diminishing along the Western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su
Valley in wake of a trough passage. Southerly, up-inlet flow has
kept temperatures near freezing or even rising just a couple
degrees overnight. With freezing rain over the last few days, many
untreated surfaces remain quite slick. While winter weather
advisories are no longer out, please continue to exercise extra
caution when outside or traveling.

Farther east, precipitation will continue for portions of the
central/eastern Chugach and Copper River Basin before diminishing
later this afternoon. Observations note 2 to 4 inches have already
fallen across much of the area, with locally higher amounts in
higher terrain such as Thompson Pass. Additional snow accumulation
of a couple inches for many of these areas are likely this
morning before precip ends later today.

Much of the area will receive a respite from precip today as the
upper trough curves east towards the Yukon and as an upper level
ridge moves in from Southwest. Areas of snow will linger for the
longest across the Copper Basin, especially from Glennallen north
to Paxon and Mentasta Lake.

A strong Bering low will send another front across the region
from the southwest by early Tuesday, sending another batch of warm
southerly flow and precipitation back into Southcentral. With the
exception of the Copper Basin and northern Susitna Valley, it
looks likely temperatures will be warm enough this time for mostly
rain to move in with this front at lower elevations. Still, some
mixing with freezing rain cannot be entirely ruled out for spots
that hold on to colder temperatures, such as the southern Susitna
Valley, western Matanuska Valley, or even the typically-cooler
spots in Anchorage. Rain and higher elevation snow will come to an
end for the most part by Wednesday as the surface front weakens
and hangs up along the Gulf coast and as temperatures turn the
corner towards what could be a rather dramatic cooling trend later
this week.

-Brown/AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The axis of a weakening trough remain anchored from Adak to the
Kuskokwim Delta in the form of a front bringing precipitation to
the area. A Special Weather Statement is active for the Kuskokwim
Delta for ongoing freezing rain through the remainder of this
morning. Freezing rain will diminish by noon today as the front
continues to weaken, however chances for precipitation will
continue through the afternoon, just with less accumulations. As
the pattern weakens, a new system approaching from the northern
Pacific aims to phase in, re-intensifying this system.

As the new strong low pressure system approaches near the southern
Alaska Peninsula early tonight, storm-force easterly winds will
develop along the Alaska Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians.
Phasing between these systems will quickly amplify the
northeasterly flow across the central Bering near the Pribilofs
currently in place, similarly up to storm-force. Locally higher
winds driven through favored gaps and passes are expected such as
near King Cove and Cold Bay with these strong winds. Additionally,
this system will reinvigorate the precipitation regime across the
eastern Bering and Southwest coastline, including the freezing
rain along the Kuskokwim Delta beginning early Tuesday morning. As
such, an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect from 3AM Tuesday to
9AM Wednesday for significant icing for the Kuskokwim Delta,
Kuskokwim Valley, including Bethel, Aniak, and Crooked Creek. Ice
accumulations of one half to three quarters of an inch expected
along the coast by Wednesday morning. Ice accumulations of one
quarter of an inch expected across the Kuskokwim Valley. Total
snowfall accumulations up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph along the coast and 15 mph for inland locations.

This low pressure system is expected to persist, driving the
weather pattern in the eastern Bering Sea through Wednesday,
promoting widespread stronger winds and heavier precipitation.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

Thursday begins with the low over the Central Aleutians
weakening. This leads to lower precipitation chances and winds
speeds for the Aleutians and the Southwest Mainland. Southcentral
Alaska will also have a drying trend as higher pressure moves into
the region. All of this less active weather will be accompanied
by a large cool down due to cold air advection from the north.
Things get more uncertain moving into Friday as the cool down
continues. Some guidance has the colder air keeping more to the
east, with Western Alaska seeing less cold temperatures whereas
other guidance has the Arctic air taking a more western track and
encompassing almost the whole state. This also has implications
for storm tracks as well. If the colder and more stable air takes
the western track, less active weather can be expected for Western
Alaska, but if the eastern track wins out, there is a potential
for lows to make it into the Bering and cause snowfall and winds
in the Southwest Mainland. The story is the same for the weekend
regarding uncertainty. Regardless of what occurs, what is known
is that Southcentral and Southwest Alaska will experience much
colder temperatures by the end of the week into the weekend and
that less active weather will accompany this cooling trend.

-JAR

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Mixed precipitation is gradually diminishing this morning,
though can`t completely rule out a short period of additional FZDZ
or --SN this morning before it exits entirely. Later today, MVFR
CIGs will gradually improve to VFR and wind will shift from SE to
NE. Another front moving across the area will bring about another
shot of precip early Tuesday morning, with a brief period of FZRA
possible before surface temps warm above freezing.


&&


$$

138
FXAK67 PAJK 012350
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Diminishing trend in winds and precipitation tonight into
tomorrow. Lingering rain primarily across northern panhandle.

- Another front arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
predominantly rain and continued warmer-than-normal
temperatures into midweek.

- Late week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...Overall, the weather isn`t
looking too exciting for the later parts of Monday into Monday
night. Continued onshore flow will keep the light rain/light rain
showers dotting the landscape. However, a building ridge of high
pressure is bringing a diminishing trend to the rain for tonight.

Along with the decreasing rain, the wind speeds will be on the
decrease as well. Overnight temps will be warmer-than-normal with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of SE AK. A touch warmer
for those on Prince of Wales Island with overnight lows in the mid
40s.

.LONG TERM.../through this weekend/...The upcoming week is
looking like another cloudy and rainy week. There will be lulls
between the frontal passages, with precipitation chances mainly
limited to western facing mountains, but the overall trend in the
long term forecast is cloudy and rainy this week. But late this
week into next weekend, ensembles are hinting at a weather
pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow.

Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. Ensembles are hinting at a upper air low pressure
descending south out of central Alaska. Run to run ensembles have
increasingly placed this low to the west of Anchorage, but cluster
analysis has this low as far east as Prince William Sound, around
a 40% or less chance of occurrence. What this translates into
sensible weather for the panhandle is how deep will the cold pool
in Canada get. The further east the low center is, the more the
cold pool in Canada will be developed, and the further south the
southwesterly flow will be. The stronger the cold pool in Canada
is, the further south the associated arctic boundary will be,
which will dictate what part of the panhandle will get the most
snow. At this point, guidance is backing off on the low placement
to west of Anchorage as the more likely scenario, which would
bring warmer temperatures further north, keeping the arctic
boundary near the northern panhandle.

Confidence is low for placement of heaviest snow, with confidence
intervals for the northern half of the panhandle being between
all rain with little to no snow accumulation to nearly 12 inches
of snow in 24 hours.

Furthermore, there is evidence that if this upcoming weekend
system does not generate substantial snowfall for the panhandle,
early to mid next week is shaping up to keep this pattern going,
which would result in multiple rounds of snow. These upcoming
systems will be carefully watched over the following days.

Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the latest 3 PM aviation update, CIGS have
dropped a little faster than expected over SEAK, with several
locations AOB IFR. Where MVFR is hanging on, we expect to see IFR
CIGS overnight through late Tuesday morning, with periods of IFR
to even LIFR VSBYs at times in drizzle and fog. The moist onshore
flow will continue through Tuesday with some improvement in CIGS
and VSBYS to MVFR in the afternoon, but again quickly trending
down toward sunset. 05/Garmon

&&

.MARINE...

Outer waters: Persistent westerly flow to 20 knots in the gulf
waters are expected to continue through the evening and slowly
diminish into the morning hours Tuesday. Seas look to follow this
trend, enhanced by the long fetch and duration of westerlies in
the gulf. Primary swell is currently a southwesterly direction to
around 8 ft, for a combine wave height of around 11-13 ft. Not
expecting any improvement in seas as winds collapse and shift to
the SE for the frontal passage tomorrow. Along the front,
expecting to see 25-30 knot sustained winds moving eastward across
the gulf into the evening hours tomorrow, before moving overland
tomorrow night.

Inside waters: The diminishing trend continues for the inside
waters as gradients relax and winds aloft reduce in lieu of the
incoming front tomorrow. Expecting to see around 10 knots maximum
across the panhandle tonight with plenty of low clouds. The one
exception is Lynn Canal, as westerly flow aloft looks to keep
southerlies up to 15-20 knots in the channel. That being said,
Taiya Inlet down to Eldred Rock have high uncertainty on how
stable the low level atmosphere will be. Currently, expecting a
relatively stable environment, which will result in decoupled
winds near Haines and Skagway and relatively light winds. South of
this point; however, southerlies up to 20 knots are currently
occurring.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...NC

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