213
FXAK68 PAFC 171225
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A transient ridge of high pressure over Southcentral overnight
will retreat to the northeast today as the next storm system
approaches from the south. This morning, a warm front associated
with a deepening North Pacific low well south of the Alaska
Peninsula will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska. As it does,
snow will will develop over Kodiak Island early this morning
before easterly winds increase, driving temperatures above 32F and
changing snow over to rain.

This front will make it to the coast by this afternoon, spreading
snow over the Kenai Peninsula and across the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat-Su Valleys by late morning. Snowfall will generally be light,
on the order of up to 2 inches of snow, with most locations seeing
closer to an inch. Along the immediate coast of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, snow is expected to change to rain by mid afternoon
Saturday as an easterly wind advects warmer air into locations
such as Whittier and Portage.

There will be a break in the precipitation by late Saturday
afternoon before the aforementioned low drives north, bringing
with it another round of precipitation. Temperatures aloft will
warm through the evening and overnight hours, especially across
the Kenai Peninsula and locations in the lee of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains, resulting in the wintry mix of precipitation
once again. Freezing rain and snow is likely for a period of time
from Anchor Point north to Wasilla Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. Right now, it looks like areas along the Sterling
Highway from Anchor Point to Kenai may have the best chance for
prolonged freezing rain, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation. A strengthening southeasterly flow aloft should push
the bulk of this wintry mix to the far western Susitna Valley by
Sunday morning, then lifting north along the Alaska Range by
Sunday afternoon as the low moves inland and weakens.

By Monday, a warm ridge will begin to set up over the state,
leading to a return of a much quieter weather pattern.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

This morning, an upper-level shortwave and weak surface low lift
north towards the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) between the Shumagin
Islands and Kodiak Island. The surface low will help to spread
precipitation, from south-to-north, today along much of the AKPEN.
While precipitation could start out as a quick period of wet snow
from Chignik to King Salmon, warmer air moves in from the North
Pacific and changes precipitation over to rain/snow mix or plain
rain by late morning or early afternoon before it ends. Light
precipitation makes it as far north as the Kuskokwim Valley and
Interior Bristol Bay by late morning or early afternoon in the
form of mostly snow in the Kuskokwim Valley, rain or rain/snow mix
across the Iliamna area, and snow turning to rain/snow mix across
much of Bristol Bay. The majority of precipitation from this
system will remain across Kodiak Island, Cook Inlet, and the Gulf
of Alaska.

Elsewhere, southerly flow continues across the eastern Bering and
through the southern AKPEN today as rain and or rain/snow mix
continues through today. A weak front moves to the Kuskokwim Delta
Coast and portions of coastal Bristol Bay tonight. The Kuskokwim
Delta Coast will see mostly snow from this evening while the
Western Capes and coastal Bristol Bay will see rain/snow mix as
warmer air works in. There is the possibility of some very light
freezing drizzle across the Dillingham area this evening as
precipitation encroaches on the area. This activity winds down
Sunday morning, as the Interior Kuskokwim Delta sees light snow
showers with what is left of the front.

Farther out west, a negatively tilted upper-level trough,
anchored by an upper-level low in the western Bering, extends
across the Western and Central Aleutians, including Adak and Atka
this morning. A surface low spins in the western Bering as it
retrogrades back to west through today. Its front moves over the
Pribilof Islands this morning as another shortwave helps to spin
up another low in the North Pacific south of Nikolski today. This
low will help to maintain light precipitation across the Pribilofs
through much of the day with light rain or light rain/snow mix
also continuing for Nikolski and Unalaska. Two more North Pacific
lows will lift northward into the western Bering, one Sunday into
Sunday evening and one Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, will
affect mostly the Central Aleutians (Adak and Atka) with more
rain and or rain/snow mix as well as gale-force winds in the
marine zones near those areas. Scattered snow showers on the
backside of each system are possible along the Western Aleutians
including Shemya.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. Seasonable and
relatively quieter weather seems likely. A few surface lows may
make it into the Gulf of Alaska, but should remain confined to the
immediate coastline and potentially Kodiak Island. Similar is
possible for the Alaska Peninsula and southwestern coast. Farther
west though, low pressure will prevail with embedded surface lows
lifting north into the Bering Sea. Gale to storm force winds
possible. Each wave will move in succession through the Aleutians
and Bering Sea, keeping precipitation and winds in the Bering Sea
for most of next week. However, the main foreseeable challenge
would be with the timing of each low that lifts north across the
area.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist. Conditions will remain
primarily VFR, but there is a chance for MVFR conditions briefly
midday as a trough moves overhead with light snowfall.


&&

$$

945
FXAK67 PAJK 170605
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
905 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include 6Z TAF Issuance...

.AVIATION...VFR conditions have taken hold of the entire panhandle
except Yakutat, which is still holding onto IFR to LIFR
conditions. CIGs AoB 1500 ft and VIS around 2 SM is expected to
improve through early Saturday morning as the system continues to
push onshore.

Other northern sites, particularly Haines and Skagway, have seen
the occasional light drizzle and a drop in CIGs from the same
system. The main impact, however, is due to a strong southerly
gradient bringing gusts up to 40 kts in Skagway and 25 kts in
Haines. This gradient will continue to weaken through late tonight
as the system begins to dissipate. The Icy Strait Corridor and
parts of the central panhandle are also seeing overcast CIGs AoA
6000 ft prevail as the system filters over. The southern panhandle
is seeing predominantly clear skies and light winds prevail
through the period, which may allow for patchy fog development in
the early morning hours.

Looking ahead, the system bringing inclement weather to the
northern half of the area will weaken and fall apart through
Saturday morning. In its wake, an improving trend will take hold
across the north (barring the spread of fog chances to to these
areas). By Saturday afternoon, a majority of the panhandle should
be seeing clear skies.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the
weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog,
most likely in the morning and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Not much to talk about for this weekend, rain and
winds will diminish Friday night; winds are expected to drop below
20 knots for a majority of the region, with clearing skies and no
significant precipitation Saturday and Sunday. Main threat
continues to be periods of fog in the morning and evening hours
impacting maritime and aviation operations. Expect fog in repeat
offender locations and protected bays/inlets.

.LONG TERM...Very little change for the long term, with continued
quiet weather and decreasing fog chances. A strengthening
mid/upper level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state
down through SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away
from the panhandle. Warmer low level temperatures will help keep
high temperatures above freezing, although some areas will still
drop below freezing during the overnights. As the ridge
retrogrades into an omega block like feature to the west, building
high pressure in the Yukon will increase northerly winds, and
cooling temperatures.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters):
A gale force low continues to weaken, with peak significant
heights of 20 to 25 ft along the northern coast reported by buoy
82 early Friday. Seas will continue to diminish overnight tonight,
dropping below 10ft by Saturday evening. Expecting deep water
significant wave heights to remain below 10 ft through the start
of next week (at least through Wednesday) with southwesterly
swell generated from storms south of the Aleutians impacting our
coast.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Strongest winds Friday are southerly fresh to strong breezes for
Lynn Canal, diminishing to below 15 knots Friday night. Light
winds below 15 knots expected for all major passages Saturday into
Sunday. Main threat for folks is periods of dense fog in the
morning and overnight hours. Northerly outflow winds of fresh to
strong breezes become likely starting Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...AP

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