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Alaska Drought Monitor


918
FXAK68 PAFC 130141
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 PM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front moves through Southcentral bringing rain and continued
gusty winds through tomorrow afternoon. Another front, associated
with a low tracking south of the Aleutians, moves through
Southcentral midweek.

Rainfall amounts in Southcentral through 4:00pm today range from a
few tenths of an inch on the eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula
and Prince William Sound to a few hundredths of an inch on the
western side of the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island and the rest
of Southcentral. Winds have been strong through the Turnagain Arm
and Prince William Sound from Cordova to Whittier. Gusts through
the Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage Hillside and the western side of
Anchorage ranged from 35 to 45 mph this afternoon after gusts in
the upper 40s this morning. Another round of precipitation moves
through Southcentral this evening through tomorrow morning. In
addition to more widespread rainfall, this second shortwave brings
small craft advisory to gale warning winds to the Gulf of Alaska
and Prince William Sound. They diminish through tomorrow
afternoon.

Tuesday, a fast-moving low moves through the Gulf of
Alaska bringing a reinforcing round of precipitation and winds to
coastal areas of the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William
Sound. Tuesday night int Wednesday evening, as a low spins in the
North Pacific/Bering Sea, its front crosses Kodiak Island causing
easterly winds gusts and steady rainfall. Through the day
Wednesday, widespread rain and pre-frontal southeasterly to
easterly winds spread over Southcentral Alaska.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

Key messages:

- The remnants of Typhoon Halong continue to move northward
towards the Beaufort Sea. Water levels are slowly subsiding and
winds are decreasing in strength as the system moves out of
the region.

- A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast until 10 PM tonight.

- A Flood Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM Monday from
Bethel to Kuskokwim bay.

- Another powerful storm system will move out of the Pacific on
Tuesday. The storm is expected to take a more southerly track
across the Aleutians Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty
Southeast winds are expected with minor coastal flooding
possible in Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but not for Kipnuk or
the Kuskokwim River.

Winds continue to decrease in strength as the remnants of Typhoon
Halong moves northward toward the Beaufort Sea. Water levels
across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast similarly subside as the winds
decrease. Water levels peaked early this morning between 4AM to
7AM. Water levels will drop well below MHHW by this evening
(~ 8 PM to 11 PM), which should allow for more significant
receding of flood waters. Satellite and radar reveals lingering
showers around the Bethel region, which will dwindle into the
evening. Calm winds and clearing tonight will lead to areas of
dense fog in the Kuskokwim Delta, the Western Capes of Bristol Bay
and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. A weak disturbance due to long
wave troughing arrives late Monday morning, leading to breezy
south- southwesterly winds (10- 15 mph), and periods of light
rainfall. Continued weak troughing in the Bering will lead to
light rain and light winds for the rest of today and Monday. This
pattern will persist through the rest of Monday and into Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, another low will track into the Bering,
leading to gusty gale force winds and moderate rainfall in the
Central and Eastern Aleutians. The low center will track along the
Aleutian Islands and eventually the Alaska Peninsula. A front from
the low lifts into the Southwest Mainland, bringing another round
of gusty winds and rain. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will see gusty
southeast winds up to 45 mph. The front could bring elevated water
levels to Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, but should not impact
Kipnuk or the Kuskokwim River. Winds will decrease by Wednesday
afternoon as the center of the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska,
but areas of light to moderate rainfall will continue in the
Southwest mainland. Thursday has the back-end of the low push into
the mainland, leading to breezy northwesterly winds in the
Kuskokwim Delta. This wind direction is not favorable for coastal
flooding, so no impacts are expected. Looking ahead to Friday into
the weekend reveals higher pressure building into the mainland on
Friday, allowing for light winds and lower rain chances.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active weather pattern will bring strong winds and heavy
precipitation across much of region. A deep cyclone is expected to
move through the Aleutians towards southwestern Alaska, with its
exact path uncertain but trending southward. This storm will
likely bring storm-force winds to the Aleutians starting Tuesday,
along with moderate amounts of rainfall. These conditions will
spread to the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday as the cyclone makes
landfall. Southern coastal areas, including Southcentral and
Prince William Sound, can expect heavy precipitation later in the
week due to a related weather system developing over the Gulf of
Alaska.

Towards the end of the week, another less intense cyclone is
forecasted to move into the Bering Sea, bringing more
precipitation to the southern coastal regions. High winds may
continue in the Aleutians, with the potential for another strong
cyclone arriving by the weekend. Temperatures across Alaska will
remain above normal due to persistent southwesterly winds. While
the exact strength and track of this storms very across the
models, the consensus suggests significant weather impacts,
particularly for western and southern Alaska.


-DD

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The strong southeasterly winds will persist through the
afternoon then diminish by late evening. Rain is also expected to
develop overnight and bring ceilings to MVFR levels. There is a
chance for occasional visibility readings to be MVFR tomorrow, but
ceilings are more likely to be MVFR.

&&


$$



153
FXAK69 PAFG 122331
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
331 PM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

As of 1 PM AKDT, the center of Typhoon Halong`s remnants are just
west of Buckland at ~968 mb. These remnants are expected to quickly
track northeast to near Nuiqsut at ~979 mb by 10 PM AKDT evening and
across the Beaufort Sea tonight. In general, the worst weather
impacts (coastal flooding, strong winds, and heavy precipitation)
are on the east and south sides of the storm track. A variety of
weather hazard products remain in effect, but the further east storm
track has shifted impacts further inland and an overall decrease in
severity. Additionally, weather conditions are expected to quickly
improve across the most impacted areas by first thing Monday
morning. Except for light rain showers and low clouds, benign
weather conditions are expected through the day on Tuesday. A much
weaker system approaches the YK-Delta Tuesday night into Wednesday
that gradually lifts north toward the Chukchi Sea by Friday.

&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Strong southerly winds gusting up to 55 mph are expected through
tonight across the northwest interior, particularly at elevations
above 1000 ft including the Dalton Summits and near Bettles.

- Southerly winds up to 60 mph are possible through Alaska Range
passes until around sunset before quickly diminishing overnight.

- Areas of rain and high elevation snow diminish across the
northwest interior tonight and increase across the southern interior
on Monday then southeastern interior on Tuesday. Snow levels range
from 1500-2000 ft with up to 3 inches above 2000 ft by Wed morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- The remnants of Typhoon Halong are shifting northeast across the
far eastern Kotzebue Sound this afternoon. Winds diminish from
southwest to northeast tonight as the storm system departs.

- South wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph shift westerly this afternoon
then quickly diminish overnight with most places near or below 30
mph by Monday morning.

- Winds shifting westerly this afternoon are expected to result in
rising water levels for the Norton Sound and the Kotzebue Sound
through tonight before returning to near normal on Monday. Water
levels are forecast to be roughly 2 to 5 ft above average high tide
levels with locally higher levels up to 7 ft possible (ex: Koyuk).

- Rainfall is quickly diminishing this afternoon with most places
receiving less than 0.25" of additional rainfall through Monday
night, except for the western Brooks Range where up to 0.5" is
forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Heavy snow continues through tonight before diminishing on Monday,
primarily west of Atigun Pass at elevations near and above 2000 ft
where accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are possible.

- Strong south winds gusts up to 75 mph Sunday afternoon result in
areas of blowing snow that could significantly reduce visibility
through this evening. Wind shift westerly with gusts diminishing
below 30 mph by Monday morning as snowfall decreases.

- Coastal erosion remains possible along the Northwest Arctic Coast
tonight through Monday night when northeast winds bring water levels
1-3 ft above average high tides.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Our focus continues to be the remnants of Typhoon Halong as it
tracks northeast across Northwestern Alaska. Numerous locations
across western Alaska are reporting southerly to westerly wind gusts
ranging from 40 to 60 mph with isolated reports of gusts greater
than 70 mph Sunday afternoon. These strong wind gusts were primarily
focused on the southeast sides of the storm`s center, which is
approaching Kotzebue at ~968 mb as of 3 PM AKDT. Models continue to
disagree about how quickly this low pressure tracks northeast this
evening, but ensemble guidance progs a ~980 mb low north of Kaktovik
around 4 AM AKDT. Shortwave ridging builds across most of Northern
AK on Monday with much more tranquil weather conditions expected.
The primary exception to this is the southern interior where a pair
of disturbances embedded within deep SW flow aloft each result in a
round of light to locally moderate frontal precipitation. Snow
levels are expected to linger around 2000 ft with each wave of
precipitation. North of the Alaska Range, 1-4 inches of wet snow are
possible at higher elevations with considerably more snow in the
Alaska Range, particularly on south-facing slopes east of Isabel
Pass.

The upper level pattern amplifies again on Wednesday as a ~970 mb
surface low and associated upper level trough approaches the AK
Peninsula. The upper level trough appears to split into two pieces
while weakening late this week. The more progressive piece of energy
shifts east into the Gulf of Alaska and brings the deepest moisture
with it that is eventually squeezed out over the coastal mountains.
The other piece lifts north along the West Coast toward the Chukchi
Sea through the end of the week as it phases with a closed low near
Wrangel Island. More information is included in the extended
discussion below.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Rain and gusty east winds spread across the YK Delta on Wednesday as
the ~970 mb surface low approaches the Alaska Peninsula. At 500 mb,
the closed low approaching the AK Pen Wednesday morning splits into
two circulations before weakening into an elongated east-west
oriented trough axis across Northern Alaska by Thursday night.
Overall weather impacts are expected to be minimal with another wave
of unseasonable warmth spreading across the entire forecast area and
primarily elevation dependent rain/snow mix. Precipitation amounts
are generally light and easterly flow prevails north of the trough
axis with westerly flow developing south of the trough. More
moderate easterly flow develops across the eastern Arctic Coastline
Thursday morning before spreading along the coast on Friday then
diminishing on Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

A low pressure system lifts north along the West Coast Wednesday
through Friday with moderate westerly winds developing on the south
side of this system. A threat for high surf is possible for the YK
Delta Wednesday night that gradually shifts north into the Norton
Sound by Thursday night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ801.
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ802-803.
High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
Wind Advisory for AKZ846-852.
Wind Advisory for AKZ812-831-832.
High Wind Warning for AKZ813.
High Wind Warning for AKZ814>824-826-828>830.
Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ815.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ816>818.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ821.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822-824.
Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825-827.
High Wind Warning for AKZ825.
Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ807-809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-816-817-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-850-853-854-857-858.
Storm Warning for PKZ803>805-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-813-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-810>812-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ808.
Gale Warning for PKZ809-855.
Gale Warning for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

$$



977
FXAK67 PAJK 130003
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 PM AKDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A system pushes into the northern panhandle this afternoon
increasing winds and precipitation chances for the N.
Panhandle.
- The southern panhandle remains relatively dry with light
winds.

Details: Overcast skies and increasing winds have begun near the
northern gulf and panhandle. Overcast skies will continue to push
into the northern panhandle into tonight with increasing rain
chances. Yakutat will see the heaviest rain with 24 hour totals
near 2 to 3 inches. The highest rain rates are most likely to
occur Monday morning near Yakutat. For those far north areas, 6
hour QPF chances show there is around a 30% chance of more than
0.75 inches falling and around a 50 to 60% chance of greater than
0.5 inches. Other parts of the panhandle will see a lot less rain
with amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches with little to no
precipitation south of Frederick Sound.

Winds in the northern gulf have already begun to increase to strong
breezes with gusts up to 35 kts as of this afternoon. Winds will
continue to slightly increase and move into the eastern gulf coast
tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds along the far northern
panhandle will also increase to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. These stronger winds first reach Yakutat tonight and
continue into the morning. They will then reach the Haines and
Skagway areas early tomorrow morning and then remain elevated.

.LONG TERM...Active weather pattern continues throughout
the week as systems continue to impact the panhandle, the 500 mb
ridge beginning to be pushed eastward as shortwaves push in from the
west throughout the week. Following the rain impacting the NE Gulf
Coast Monday will be a weak low moving up from the south, bringing
another round of brief moderate to heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf
Tuesday. The low will move onshore around Yakutat by Tuesday night,
bringing light to moderate rainfall across the rest of the panhandle
throughout the day before it moves onshore and dissipates. There is
a brief break in the precipitation as this low moves onshore before
the next system moves in, particularly in the southern panhandle as
chances diminish into Wednesday morning. For this system on Tuesday,
the northeast Gulf coast is expected to see between 1 and 2 inches
of rain in 24 hours, and the northern panhandle will see below 1
inch in 24 hours. Much lower amounts are expected to the southeast
of Sitka as the precipitation largely moves northward and inland.

The next system moving into the Gulf Wednesday morning will bring a
gale force front across the northeastern Gulf, bringing 35 to 40 kt
winds along the northern coast from Cape Fairweather to Kayak
Island. The GFS and Canadian ensembles are leaning towards higher
wind speeds associated with this system, however the EC ensemble is
favoring keeping it only having probabilities for gale force winds
along Fairweather and near Kayak Island, so the wind speeds have
been increased but are at most a high end gale at this time. These
winds in the Gulf will diminish Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as the low lingers offshore to the northwest near Kenai
Peninsula. As the front moves in from east to west, it will begin to
impact the NE Gulf Coast area in the morning before moving across
the rest of the panhandle throughout the day. The system will
continue to bring precipitation throughout the day Thursday before
the low diminishes into Friday. The front moving through Wednesday
will bring 2 to 3 inches of rain in 24 hours to the NE Gulf coast
and Yakutat area between midday Wednesday through midday Thursday,
with the heaviest rates expected Wednesday night with 0.6 to 0.8
inches in 6 hours possible. NBM probabilities show around a 40%
chance of above 0.75 inches in 6 hours for this time frame, and a 30
to 40% chance of seeing above 3 inches in 24 hours. For the rest of
the panhandle, between 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected between
Wednesday night and Thursday night, with potential higher amounts at
higher elevations. The timing of the front is much more in agreement
between models today, it is a matter of the strength and amount of
precipitation that is still quite spread.

Looking a little farther out, there is a chance of again a weak
outflow event at the end of next week Saturday. With a low pressure
system moving to the south of the panhandle, and building high
pressure to around 1020 mb, weak northerly winds can develop.
Similar to this weekend, outflow winds do not look strong at this
moment.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Monday afternoon/
VFR flight conditions across southeast Alaska this afternoon. For
PAYA, mid-layer cloud deck will quickly lower as the system
approaches and brings rain, with MVFR flight conditions expected
by around 03Z this evening, becoming IFR by early Monday morning.
As rain spreads east across the northern/central panhandle
through Monday morning, expect MVFR flight conditions to develop,
likely continuing through the afternoon and into the night.

Increasing winds through the period from Yakutat on across the
northern panhandle, with gusts to 20kts possible. Even stronger
winds and gusts developing at PAGY, up to 20G30kts. Winds will be
lighter across the southern panhandle, generally less than 10kts.
Anticipating LLWS along the N Gulf coast by 03Z this evening as a
front pushes through, with barrier jet winds setting up offshore
of Yakutat, with 30-40kts of shear magnitude. LLWS could develop
Monday morning for PAHN, with stronger southerlies aloft (30kt at
2kft) over lighter easterlies at the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A gale force low has begun to move into the northern
gulf increasing winds to strong breezes near 25 kts with gale force
gusts near 35 kts. As this low moves east, winds along the far
northern and northeastern gulf coast, are likely to increase to gale
force sustained winds. The strongest of these winds will tonight
into early Monday before they begin to diminish Monday night.
Associated with this system, wave build to 12 to 14 ft along the
north and northeaster gulf coast. A much stronger and more extensive
system envelops the gulf Wednesday as a front pushes its way through
the gulf into the panhandle. This front drives widespread gales and
seas of 12 to 16 ft into the Gulf of Alaska.

Inside Channels: A series of gale force lows move across the Gulf
through the next several days which will help to increase winds
along the inside passage. The first of many systems arrives tonight
increasing the marine areas, from Southern Chatham and north, to
fresh to strong breezes which is 17 to 27 kts. The strongest inner
channel winds will be located near the northern portions of the
panhandle. Northern Lynn Canal is likely to see increases in wind to
25 kts with gusts up to near 30 kts. Winds across the central and
southern channels begin to decrease Monday night, but winds in the
northern channels stay elevated ahead of the next system.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-642>644-662>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB

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