Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

442
FXAK68 PAFC 110132
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to promote clearer conditions
across Southcentral Alaska, but an exiting low pressure system in
the northeastern Gulf of Alaska is spreading some high level
clouds over the area. The relation between these clouds, and
temperature as seen cooler temperatures overnight, with the lower
level of the atmosphere clear to cool more rapidly than if there
were an insulating low level cloud deck. Overnight low
temperatures have been steadily declining and will continue to do
so for many locations across Southcentral as the clearer skies
remain. Colder air is draining out of Southcentral basins through
gaps such as Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez Arm,
with gusts near 40 mph this evening and Tuesday morning. Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta may similarly gusty winds through
Tuesday afternoon with colder air pulled down out of the Copper
River Basin. Gusty winds through these favored gaps and passes
will diminish gradually through Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

The trough in the northern Gulf may bring some snow showers to
Cordova by early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect generally clear and
cold conditions, with some high clouds and areas of fog, for much
of Southcentral by midweek.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, a small low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta region.
As a result, scattered snow showers are moving through the region.
Snow or rain/snow showers and low stratus/fog are also present in
the Bristol Bay region. The low will slowly move through the
Kuskokwim Delta through the night before dissipating Tuesday
afternoon. Steadier snow is expected Monday night/Tuesday morning
before this happens. Meanwhile, a frontal system is pushing into
the Bering from the west. A long, vertical swath of gale force
winds and precipitation will accompany the front as it moves over
the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning. The front will move
eastward toward the mainland through the course of the day on
Tuesday, arriving at the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern
Aleutians by Tuesday night/Early Wednesday morning. The front will
push onshore by Wednesday afternoon, bringing elevated winds and
initially snowfall. Higher winds near the Kuskokwim Coast and
Nunivak Island may lead to areas of blowing snow. Warmer air will
accompany this front, so precipitation will likely transition to
rain/snow, especially over Bristol Bay.

By Thursday morning, the low will dissipate inland. after this
point, a ridge builds into the Bering, limiting winds and
decreasing precipitation chances. As Thursday progresses, a low
south of the Alaska Peninsula will allow for some increased wind
speeds. Also, a trough will arrive behind the ridge in the Western
Aleutians allowing for higher wind speeds and precipitation.
Looking quite a bit forward to the weekend has a strong North
Pacific low moving into the Bering. This will likely bring gusty
winds and moderate to heavy precipitation somewhere in the
Aleutians. Uncertainty is high at this time with its track,
strength, and timing, so continue to monitor the forecast for
updates as the evolution of the low becomes more clear.

-JAR


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for the second half of this week slides east into the
Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds
ranging from small craft to gales along with diminishing
precipitation are anticipated on the back side of this system for
the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen. For Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool temperatures and relatively
quiet weather is expected Friday into Saturday, with the greatest
chances for periods of precipitation remaining mainly along the
northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as the low tracks towards
Southeast Alaska.

The bigger story continues to be a much stronger storm lifting
out of the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians this
weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in
agreement for a sub 950 mb low reaching the Aleutian Chain
sometime Saturday into Sunday as it merges with an upper level
trough in the western Bering Sea. Confidence is currently high
that as the storm arrives, the Aleutian Chain is likely to see
moderate to heavy rain and sustained high end gale to storm force
winds through the weekend. As we head further into the weekend and
into early next week, there remains a high degree of uncertainty
with regards to the track and intensification of the low as it
tracks across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering as model
spread significantly increases by this point. While most guidance
generally favors the storm remaining over the southern Bering, the
GFS continues to depict the storm deepening to a sub 940 mb low
and tracking north into the central Bering. If this scenario were
to play out, impacts such as heavy rain, a prolonged period of
strong south-southeasterly winds, and high seas would affect much
more of the region including the Pribilof Islands as well as the
Kuskokwim Delta coast through the early part of next week. The
impacts from this storm will be highly dependent on the storm
track, and we continue to closely monitor and update the forecast
as confidence in the strength and track of the storm increases.

-JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR winds and ceilings to persist through the TAF Period.
With the departure of an area of low pressure over the Gulf, high
pressure will settle over Southcentral Alaska. This should allow
for drier conditions, accompanied by light winds and VFR ceilings.

-BL

&&
$$

644
FXAK69 PAFG 102349
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
249 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will still be possible under an area of troughing over
the northeastern portion of the state, as well as along the North
Slope and for portions of the eastern Arctic Coast, otherwise
conditions are generally dry and notably colder for most of the
region. This colder air will continue to infiltrate the mainland,
with some locations within the Brooks Range/Arctic Plains getting
down to double digits below zero for tonight. This will also be
possible for portions of the Interior, and especially within wind-
sheltered valleys and where there are a lack of low clouds/fog. This
will be the caveat which may help to keep some locations from
getting nearly as cold. The cooling and drying trend will continue
throughout the week, then there will be a return of more snow
showers being possible by the end of the week and going into the
weekend. A return to more seasonal temperatures is expected early
next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clearing skies will support colder temperatures and areas of
dense fog for tonight as conditions turn predominantly dry for
the week ahead.

- Lows for tonight will fall into the single digits above and
below zero for most locations.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see lows drop
into the double digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow chances will continue across the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence
Island, and Norton Sound coastal areas into tomorrow morning.
Snowfall totals expected to be between 1" and 3".

- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.

- Dry conditions return Tuesday along the West Coast outside of
isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range today through Tuesday. Additional accumulations through up
to around 1-3", locally higher across the NE Arctic Coast
around 3- 5".

- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Dry conditions return region wide tomorrow night into Wednesday
as a colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.

- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero further inland.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The general troughing over the eastern half of the state is going to
nearly stall out over the northeastern corner of the state as it
moves a little more northward, and because of this, there will
likely be more in the way of high snowfall totals across the eastern
Arctic Coast. Some of the guidance is also showing that the
elongated minor shortwave associated with this could extend further
down over the Yukon Flats, which may also help to increase snowfall
totals over this area as well. There is also another upper level low
that will be transitioning up and over into the Chukchi Sea, with a
ridge establishing itself over the Arctic Sea in its wake and then
slowing propagating towards the east and eventually over the
Beaufort Sea. As this occurs, along with the troughing over western
Canada remains nearly in place, it is going to allow for there to be
much colder air advected down from the north and it is going to
continue to infiltrate the mainland throughout the week, as a drier
and cooler pattern sets up. Depending on how much it clears will
determine just how cold some areas will get. By Wednesday, there
will be much of the Interior likely experiencing highs in the single
digits either above or below zero, and lows dipping down into the
double digits below zero within the wind-sheltered valleys for those
that remain low cloud/fog-free. The overall trend through the middle
of the week is to continue to cool for most areas, while remaining
relatively dry for most locations, with the exception of the North
Slope and portions of the West Coast.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensemble solutions have continued to be in generally good agreement
with an area of low pressure under broad troughing moving into the
Bering Sea going into the later part of the week and into the
weekend. Depending on the track of an associated major shortwave,
and if it ends up with a more of a westerly track towards the Bering
Strait, then it could have more impacts for our region as more
moisture is advected up and expanded over the Southwest Coast/YK-
Delta, and into portions of the Interior, with a slightly better
chance of precipitation, especially for the West Coast. The
southerly draw could also help to warm temperatures a bit, with
temperatures returning closer to the seasonal average for this time
of year by the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-805-810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-809.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-858-859.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ855.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Stewey

605
FXAK67 PAJK 110639 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.Evening Update and 06z Aviation Update...
As of 930pm AK time. A front continues to push northeast across
the Panhandle Monday night, bringing gusty winds and moderate-to-
heavy showers, with some lightning reported along Baranof Island.
Snow is becoming more apparent for Haines Highway, impacting the
upper portion of the road system west of the Chilkat River bridge.
Earlier this evening a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for an
additional 4 to 6 inches of snow through 12 pm Tuesday, with the
most anticipated near the border. The heaviest showers are
currently ongoing and will weaken through Tuesday afternoon. A
Winter Weather Advisory is also out for the Klondike Highway near
White Pass, with 6 to 11 inches of snow expected by Tuesday
afternoon.

Touching on winds/seas a southerly surge is currently moving
across the inner channels, with Point Couverden, Five Finger, and
Grave Point reporting southerly gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These
elevated southerly winds will continue to push north tonight
through Lynn Canal, bringing breezy conditions into Tuesday
afternoon. Winds will subside by Wednesday morning bringing a
short break in more active weather.

For mariners planning on the cross sound PWS transit, coastal
buoys are reporting southerly seas 13 to 16 ft near 10 seconds,
with satellite derived winds highlighting gale force conditions
for most of the coast. A healthy fetch of SW gales is aimed at
Chichagof/Baranof, with seas expected to increase to 20 to 25 ft
by Tuesday morning. For the Fairweather grounds seas near 18 ft
are forecasted by early Tuesday. Seas diminish Tuesday night,
likely below 10 ft by early Wednesday morning.

&&

AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...
Front continues to push across the panhandle this evening as a
low in the northern Gulf slowly meanders towards Yakutat. As this
front pushes inland, seeing MVFR to VFR flight conditions with
CIGS AoB 6000ft with intermittent IFR visibilities as low as 2sm
up to 4sm within the heavier showers.

Through the rest of tonight and into Tuesday morning, predominate
MVFR flight conditions prevail by 12z along and north of the Icy
Strait corridor with CIGS AoB 3500ft and intermittent IFR visbys
within heavier showers, including Juneau. Not expecting much
improvement in flight conditions for Tuesday, especially across
the N Panhandle as low finally pushes into the NE Gulf coast and
dissipates. On-shore flow should keep showers with MVFR to low VFR
flight conditions persisting into Thursday afternoon across the
panhandle. With the bulk of the system in the N Gulf, expecting
better conditions across the S Panhandle TAF sites through
Tuesday, with higher forecast confidence of longer periods of VFR
flight conditions in the afternoon.

Some LLWS concerns through early Tuesday afternoon with the
aforementioned low tracking inland. Broad SW-ly flow aloft 25 to
35kts along and north of a line from Sitka over to Petersburg,
strengthening moving towards Gustavus. With the low pushing
between Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape, Yakutat could see NE-ly LLWS
around 20 to 30kts with a easterly surface wind through early
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Diminishing gale force low brings more rounds of rain and
elevated winds to the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday

- More snow for upper elevation highways through Tuesday afternoon

- Weak outflow begins midweek bringing cooler temperatures across
the panhandle Wednesday and Thursday night.

SHORT TERM...
A weakening gale force low is slowly making its way into the
northern gulf Monday afternoon after pushing a gale force front
into the panhandle earlier in the day. With continued weak
steering flow aloft, this feature will gradually move inland along
the northeast gulf coast through the night with broad weak
troughing lingering over the northern gulf coast Tuesday.
Increasing winds will accompany the circulation as it lifts
inland, with both Haines and Skagway likely to see gusts up to 35
mph Monday night. Onshore flow will continue into Tuesday and
shower coverage will gradually diminish heading into midweek with
some fog potential for the southern panhandle Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

With the track of the low shifting slightly eastward from
previous forecasts, more moisture is expected to be pulled up Lynn
Canal into the far northern panhandle, and a winter weather
advisory is in effect for long duration snow accumulations of 7 -
12 inches for the Klondike Highway through Tuesday afternoon with
gusty winds Monday night. The Haines Highway is also expected to
receive snow during this time, though to a lesser extent due to
downsloping with the direction of flow aloft.

LONG TERM...
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions quickly develop after
Tuesday as a low pressure system moves to the south of the
panhandle. This will bring weak outflow and northerly winds across
the inner channels as a high develops over the Yukon at around
1010mb. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near Skagway and
across Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales of 20
to 30 kts are the most likely. This is mainly seen in similarities
in model pressure gradients, showing around a 3 mb difference
between Skagway and Juneau late Wednesday.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler
temperatures across most of the panhandle with overnight lows
getting below freezing across the panhandle Thursday night.
Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of less than 30
degree temperatures over the southern panhandle Thursday into
Friday. The central and northern panhandle both have a medium to
high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25 degrees. These
temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of year, but it
would be the coldest most places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the
gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds
across the gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this
end of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold
air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central
panhandle. We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The
colder the temperatures are leading up to the weekend system, the
more likely it is for precipitation to fall as snow into the Icy
Strait Corridor.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: A weakening gale force low continues to track
into the northern gulf, set to move inland later Monday night. The
primary front has moved through the outer coast with winds now
primarily out of the south across the eastern gulf. Seas behind
the front have increased to around 13-16 ft from Cape Spencer down
to the Dixon Entrance. Seas will continue to build as the low
center moves closer to shore bringing closer to 20-25 ft seas
Monday night into Tuesday from Cape Fairweather down to Cape
Decision. Near shore waters around Cape Edgecumbe will also see a
brief period of gale force winds on the southern side of the low
as it approaches the northeast coast.

Inside Waters: The next front has pushed into the inner channels
this afternoon, with winds increasing to strong breezes to near
gales. Strongest winds have been near Cape Fanshaw with gusts to
45 kt in the afternoon, as well as sustained gales in the upper
end of Clarence Strait. Behind the front, winds are expected to
remain between fresh to strong breezes as onshore flow persists
bringing continued showers to the area. Winds continue to diminish
heading into Tuesday as the gradient continues to weaken before
high pressure moves into the Gulf for the middle of the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
AKZ318.
Strong Wind from 6 AM AKST Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon for
AKZ319.
Strong Wind from 3 AM to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ323.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ662-663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
651-652-661-664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AP
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

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