Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

612
FXAK68 PAFC 251306
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The fog around Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula is much less
extensive this morning, but there are still areas of it,
especially along Knik Arm and the interior of the Kenai. With
increasing northerly flow at the surface today, this fog should
largely dissipate, though there could still be some patchy fog
near the front range of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

An upper level low in the eastern Interior extends into the Copper
River Basin this morning and has brought some more widespread
clouds there. This low will track westward through the day and
should allow those clouds the dissipate as it leaves the area.
Areas of low stratus and patchy is likely to persist, but areas
that do clear out will see temperatures plunge well below zero
tonight and Wednesday night.

A front is pushing into the western Gulf and across Kodiak
Island today. Temperatures for Kodiak look to remain in the mid
30s to lower 40s, keeping any precipitation that falls as rain.
Models have a good consensus on the timing of the front, but
differ somewhat on structure and if the front can spin up a low
along its trough axis. When the front likely arrives to
Southcentral Wednesday afternoon/evening, cross barrier flow and
downsloping in lee of the Chugach will help to keep precipitation
amounts light across the Anchorage Bowl. The windward slopes,
however, could see light snowfall accumulations with rain being
the predominant precipitation type for the Prince William Sound.
The front will then stall out along the coast as a potentially
more impactful system enters the Gulf for Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

There is little change to the forecast for today as high pressure
remains over the Bering Strait with a couple of weak surface lows
along the Aleutian Chain. Northeasterly offshore flow will
continue across Southwest Alaska today, gusty at times across the
Kuskokwim Delta, before shifting easterly on Wednesday. Winds
across the Kuskokwim Delta will diminish as winds flip, but will
increase in Bristol Bay through Kamishak Gap Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Across the Bering and Aleutians, the pattern
continues with small craft to gale force winds. Gales will
primarily be along the eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and the
southern Alaska Peninsula today with small craft elsewhere.
Additionally, there is a pocket of storm force gusts north of
Unalaska but remains south of Saint George. Winds will diminish
overnight tonight. The pattern in the Bering/Aleutians will become
benign mid to late this week.

A pattern shift is expected tonight into Wednesday morning as an
elongated upper level low over the Interior moves east to west
across Mainland Alaska, pushing the high pressure ridging further
into Eastern Russia. This will allow a series of shortwaves and
fronts to eventually push north into Southwest Alaska from the
North Pacific. As such, conditions across Southwest Alaska will
become unsettled mid to late this week. A warmer air mass streams
north into Southwest, pushing temperatures from the 0s and 10s up
all the way into the 20s to low 30s for much of the region by
Thursday. A couple shortwave troughs will also move up from the
North Pacific into Southwest between Wednesday and Thursday,
ushering in a returning potential for precipitation. The best
chance for steady snow and rain will initially be focused over
northern Bristol Bay, where southerly flow will support upslope
enhancement near the Kilbucks. Areas of rain and snow could be a
little more widespread with the arrival of the second trough and
attendant low moving up into Southwest for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...


A pattern shift to warmer temperatures and precipitation continues
to be seen in the long range models.

A ridge builds in the Pacific Ocean and slowly moves eastward
through the weekend. On Friday and Saturday, its orientation
in the Pacific Ocean results in southerly flow into the Aleutians
and a more southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and
Southcentral. This brings warm air advection for the Aleutians
resulting in weekend precipitation falling as mostly rain and
strong southerly winds; especially through the bays and passes.
While a main low rotates well east of the Pribilofs in the Bering
Sea this weekend, numerous lows move over the Aleutians bringing
periods of heavy rainfall and winds to the area. As the high moves
eastward Sunday/Monday, the chances of storms reaching the
Mainland increases though confidence in their exact location and
strength through the Bering Sea is low at this time.

Southwesterly flow into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska
persists this weekend with the greatest chance of precipitation
late Saturday into Monday. Right now, mesoscale disagreement
remains for timing and amounts of the heaviest precipitation from
weak lows moving through from the Pacific Ocean into the Gulf of
Alaska. However, this synoptic pattern indicates a warming trend
for Kodiak Island and Southcentral this weekend and into Prince
William Sound Monday as waves of moisture bring periods of periods
of heavy precipitation and gusty winds with warm air advection to
the region.

-Johnston

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Low stratus and patchy fog continue to be stubborn this
morning. However, unlike the past few mornings, visibilities are
not expected to be sustained 1/2 to 1/4 mile but rather more like
2 to 5 miles with isolated instances below 1 mile. Visibilities
will bounce around between VFR and IFR as patchy fog moves in and
out of the terminal this morning. Predominant VFR conditions
should return by late morning today. In addition, a weak front
will lift northward through the Gulf today with flow increasing in
the middle to upper levels out of the south and southeast with
surface winds increasing out of the north this evening. This
should result in VFR conditions with the fog fully dissipated
around the terminal.

&&

$$

663
FXAK69 PAFG 250001
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
301 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will continue to influence the Eastern Interior
through tomorrow and keep the chance of light snow and/or flurries
going through then, with some areas receiving additional snowfall of
up to an inch possible. As high pressure begins to build in over the
Chuckchi Sea and further strengthens as it moves eastward into the
Beaufort Sea, it will bring about blustery, colder, and drier
conditions to much of Northern Alaska by Wednesday, and eventually
the colder air will continue to infiltrate the Interior as well.
Stronger winds will begin to blow tomorrow night into much of the
rest of the week, and last through much of the week. With this,
there could be areas of reduced visibilities due to blowing snow are
possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott,
and Steese Highway Summits. This weekend we are anticipating a
pattern shift, as another round of storms move into the region, and
this will continue into early next week. These storms will bring
warmer temperatures and chances for heavy precipitation across
Northern Alaska. There could also be a wintry mix, and/or a
rain/snow mix for portions of the lower elevations within the Upper
Tanana Valley and Interior as much warmer temperatures are advected
up from the south. If this occurs, it could make travel tricky due
to icy road conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats, Dalton Highway Summits,
and the White Mountains this evening into tomorrow. Accumulations
would be from a dusting to an inch. Fairbanks could see some
flurries tomorrow, but confidence is not high on accumulating snow.

- Colder and drier conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Nighttime temperatures will be in the single digits to teens below
zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week. Temperatures
decrease further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop. Temperatures and moisture will begin
to increase this upcoming weekend with an increasing chance of
precipitation going into the early part of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds tomorrow night, and last through much
of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow are
possible as are difficult travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott,
and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather statement has
been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tomorrow night across the
Tanana Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as
Delta Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going into
Wednesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when we
see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the inversion
that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30
mph by Wednesday.

- Wednesday night to Thursday evening there is a chance to see snow
showers in the Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow showers
would be up to 2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins to move
into the area, these snow showers could turn into a rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow will continue across the Eastern Arctic
Coastline through tonight, and then continue to taper off going into
tomorrow morning.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies and
cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal with lows
near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will develop this afternoon
as a high pressure moves east across the Arctic Ocean. These winds
will be 20 to 30 mph, and will hang around for the rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A minor shortwave is transitioning over the Yukon Flats, with a weak
area of low pressure also positioned over the Upper Tanana Valley,
which has been providing some very light snow showers and/or
flurries, across portions of the eastern Interior and along the
AlCan border near Eagle. This weak low/trough is continuing to fill,
with a lessening chance of snow going into tonight. Otherwise,
widespread dry and colder conditions exist across most of the region
under increasing high pressure conditions. As the ridge continues to
strengthen over the Chukchi Sea and then transitions eastward over
into the Beaufort Sea by Wednesday, it is going to allow for the
colder air to continue to infiltrate the region, with some locations
getting down into the -20s overnight by tomorrow night within the
Brooks Range. This cold air and drier pattern will persist
throughout the rest of the work week until we transition into a
warmer and wetter pattern for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have continued to show a strong signal of a broad area of
troughing moving up into Bering Sea, with multiple major shortwaves
propagating up towards southwestern Alaska. The upper level jet with
this feature will be tapping into moisture getting advected up from
around 20N, which is producing very high PWAT values since it is
derived from subtropical moisture, and thus is indicating a much
wetter and more mild shift in the pattern going into this upcoming
weekend. Depending on the track of these associated waves, this
could prove to be more impactful for our area if these lows take
more of a westerly track into the Bering Sea, whereas a track
further east into the Gulf of Alaska will likely for the Interior to
get downsloped by the Alaska Range, with less in the way of
precipitation. This could be significant if these lows do take more
of the westerly track, and allow more moisture to be advected up
across the Interior. This will continue to be evaluated in the
upcoming days.

Deterministic models have been struggling with respect to resolving
some of the embedded lows and associated shortwaves moving up from
the southwest and into the Bering Sea/Gulf of Alaska for this
upcoming weekend. The GFS has more or less been the outlier, and has
been positioning the low further north and west into the Bering Sea
come early Sunday morning than the other models. However, the latest
ECMWF model run does appear to be taking the track of the major
shortwave moving up into the Bering Sea this weekend on Saturday to
have more of westerly track now than previous models. This could
definitely be impactful if there is enough warmer air (as models
indicate temperatures over freezing at the 850 mb level within the
southerly flow ahead of the frontal boundary associated with this
system that will be moving in over the region), which may lead to
potential icing concerns for some of the lower elevations. This
southerly flow will also keep conditions more moist, with chances of
snow increasing across all of Alaska going into the early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-850-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Stewey

296
FXAK67 PAJK 250639
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers of rain and snow gradually diminishing through Monday
night

- A low tracking toward Haida Gwaii Tuesday will turn generally
southerly winds across the panhandle more northerly by Tuesday
afternoon.

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most
of the panhandle.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Showers continue to plague
the panhandle, especially for the northern 2/3rd of the panhandle
and the NE gulf coast. Most areas have been mainly rain, but every
now and then a heavier shower will switch the precip type to snow
even down in the southern panhandle. The exceptions are the
Haines, Skagway, and Yakutat areas where snow has been the
dominate ptype. Overnight snow totals ranged from around 1 to 5
inches with the highest accumulations near Mud Bay near Haines and
near US customs on the Haines Highway.

Snow continues to be observed around Haines at the moment and the
winter weather advisory remains out until 6 pm this evening for
that area. These snow showers will likely continue through this
evening at least with a diminishing trend expected in precip rates
starting in the evening. There may be a few bursts of some
slightly higher snow rates for Haines (one this evening between 0
and 6z, and another weaker one about day break tomorrow, but
neither is expected to produce more then 1 to 2 inches of
additional snow accumulation. Highest amounts likely with the
burst this evening.). For other areas, Skagway and Yakutat will
likely still see some snow showers through Tuesday morning, but
accumulations are expected to only be an inch or two inches at
most. The rest of the panhandle will mainly see rain showers but I
can not rule out a mix with snow especially in heavier showers
overnight with little accumulation. Showers are expected to
diminish Tuesday as overall flow turns more easterly and
northerly and the low sustaining the showers weakens away.

Overall pattern changes Tuesday and Tuesday night as a second low
heads NE across the NE Pacific to be near Haida Gwaii and Dixon
Entrance by Tuesday night. At the same time surface high pressure
in the Yukon will be building to 1030 mb. This will result in a
developing offshore flow pattern with winds across the inner
channels becoming more easterly and northerly. Expect some
increasing northerly winds for Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and other
outflow areas starting as early as Tuesday afternoon. Speeds will
not be overly impressive though with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds
expected. Breaks in the cloud cover and drier weather will start
to become apparent across the northern panhandle late Tuesday
night as well. Meanwhile, the southern panhandle will still be in
close enough proximity to the low that cloud cover and
precipitation will still be a factor in the forecast. Temperatures
aloft and near the surface should be warm enough by this point
for the precip to mostly be rain with total rainfall amounts
around 0.25 Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...
By Wednesday high pressure across the Yukon and Northwest
Territory will begin to dominate southeast Alaskas weather, with
a decaying low in the southeastern gulf helping to pull cold dry
arctic air from the interior. Translating to impacts, as
precipitation precipitously decreases across the northern
Panhandle Wednesday, multiple days of outflow winds continue. Of
particular concern will be Lynn Canal and west-east inlets like
the Taku, Stikine and the Unuk. Cant forget about our friends up
in Yakutat, where the tight pressure gradient will also bring
elevated northerly winds to Disenchantment Bay. Current forecast
confidence reflects 20 to 30 knots of outflow winds, with several
hours of near-gale force winds likely sometime Thursday or Friday
as the surface pressure gradient reaches its full potential.
Thinking of freezing spray, coastal sea surface temperatures are
in the upper 40s with the inside in the low 40s; areas near major
glacial fed rivers are in the upper 30s. These water temperatures
combined with forecasted air temps in the low to mid 30s mean
limited freezing spray impacts with most concern in the upper
echelons of Lynn Canal and major river inlets. Main threat
continues to be elevated wave heights across the inside, with
significant wave heights of 6 to 8 ft for Lynn Canal Thursday or
Friday.

As mentioned previously a stout storm force low in the central
Pacific could tap into some deeper moisture, pushing this plume,
and a gale force front, toward the Panhandle by the weekend. If
cold air can remain in place along select areas of the inside, we
could see impactful snow in the central Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Wednesday/...For the northern 2/3 of the
panhandle, as an atmospheric wave departs Southeast Alaska moving
to the north, CIG & VIS conditions will improve from the MVFR/IFR
flight category range into the VFR category from south to north
as we progress through the TAF period. Northerly outflow SFC winds
from a tightening north to south SFC pressure gradient will make
things a bit breezy starting around noon tomorrow for the extreme
northeast Panhandle, particularly areas around northern Lynn
Canal, like the PAGY & PAHN areas. An area of low pressure
approaches the far southern panhandle, moving southwest to
northeast. It looks like it will pass just to the south of the
panhandle, moving over the Haida Gwaii / Dixon Entrance area
Wednesday morning, just beyond our TAF timeframe. As it
approaches, it will begin to lower CIGs into the MVFR category &
increase SFC winds, via a tightening SFC pressure gradient, making
PAKT & PAKW a bit breezy, during the day on Tuesday through the
end of the period. LLWS values remain rather benign through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: Generally south to east winds around 15 kt or less
are the rule across the inner channels today. Exceptions include
Young Bay with 25 kt east winds, and Lynn Canal that is still
northerly as of 1 pm. The northerly winds in Lynn Canal should
turn around to the south sometime this afternoon or early evening
as northerly pressure gradients weaken. The southerly component
to the winds should last through early Tuesday before a low starts
to approach the Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance area Tuesday and
high pressure begins to build in the Yukon. At that point the
southerly winds will start to turn northerly with Lynn Canal, Taku
Inlet, and other outflow areas starting to see winds of 20 to 25
kt by Tuesday night and may reach 30 kt in Lynn Canal by Wed
night. Clarence Strait will likely stay SE until late Tuesday
night once the low near Haida Gwaii starts weakening. Seas mainly
around 3 to 4 ft today and are expected to stay around that height
through Tuesday. Outflow areas may see seas increase to 5 ft
Tuesday night once the winds start increasing.

Gulf Waters: Weakening low SW of Yakutat is bringing mostly
Southerly winds of 15 kt or less to the gulf waters except for
easterly winds near Cape Suckling and Icy Bay this afternoon.
Winds across the eastern gulf will be showing a shift in
directions from southerly to easterly through tonight as the NE
gulf low weakens and a new stronger low heads toward Haida Gwaii.
Winds will also be increasing east of 140W and south of 57N to 25
to 30 kt with gales to 40 kt likely out of Dixon Entrance across
the far southeastern gulf by Tuesday morning. That is as far as
they will top out before starting to decrease into Tuesday night
with most areas below 25 kt by early Wednesday morning. Seas are
generally around 6 ft with a diminishing SW swell of around 4 to 5
ft (period of around 10 sec). Generally expecting the seas to
remain around 6 to 7 ft tonight before they start building to
around 10 to 12 ft by Tuesday evening. This is a result of the
increasing winds from the low heading to Haida Gwaii kicking up
more wind waves from a SE direction. Expect the seas to remain
high into Tuesday night before gradually diminishing into
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-642-663-664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau