Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

312
FXAK68 PAFC 110010
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

The forecast is on track this morning as a strong occluded front
is pushing east from the western Gulf. A windy and wet pattern
today over Southcentral will continue through the early portion of
the week. The heaviest precipitation is falling along the coast
and across areas favored by upslope flow, such as northern and
eastern portions of the Susitna Valley from Hatcher Pass to Broad
Pass. A strong pressure gradient between a surface ridge over the
eastern Gulf and deep low pressure in the Bering has also resulted
in gusty winds for many locations and has also allowed for the
development of strong southeasterly gap winds through Turnagain
Arm and the Knik River Valley, where gusts around 45 mph will
return tonight.

Widespread precipitation is expected across Southcentral, and with
some slight downsloping over Anchorage and Western Kenai. Largely
rainfall will continue across the region through Monday afternoon.
Snow levels today near 2,000 ft near the Alaska Range and closer
to 3,000 ft near Anchorage today. This will allow snow falling
through mountain passes this morning to at least mix with rain for
a time this afternoon before snow levels fall and precipitation
changes back to snow tonight through Sunday morning.

There remains high confidence in light accumulations expected at
the passes (2-4" lower Broad Pass, 3-6" top of Broad Pass, 4-7"
Thompson Pass). Confidence is also high (80-90 percent) for higher
elevations of Hatcher Pass (> 3,000 ft)to see 6-12 inches of snow
with this system (with totals closer to 2 feet above 4,000 ft). As
such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Broad Pass. For
lower elevations, temperatures will continue to warm throughout
the weekend as this system moves through.

Regarding precipitation amounts, the heaviest and most persistent
precipitation is expected to be along the northern Gulf Coast,
including Seward (widespread 2-3 inches through Sunday afternoon
with some locally higher amounts possible) and the western Alaska
Range to the northern Susitna Valley (1-3 inches through Sunday
afternoon with some locally higher amounts possible). Downsloping
winds will result in lower total precipitation amounts for the
western Kenai, Anchorage, lower Mat-Su Valleys, and the Copper
River Basin.

Regarding winds, high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph through
Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 45 mph and 40
mph, respectively, for Knik River and Copper River Valleys.
Southerly small-craft force winds persist through the Gulf on
Saturday, with some gales possible in the southern portion of Cook
Inlet. Winds look to diminish after midnight tonight, and
precipitation may continue through Monday afternoon.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to
lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the
northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly
gale- force winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for
across Southcentral once the front moves through, with the
Turnagain Arm wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet
decreasing Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of
downsloping also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai
Peninsula. This will allow precipitation to fill in across the
Cook Inlet and Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and
gusty southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may
also make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin
Sunday morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly
dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and
rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday
across coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su
Valleys, and along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the
northern Gulf Coast and snow showers over the coastal mountains
and Hatcher Pass. High confidence (>90%) of additional snow
accumulations for the passes late Sunday into Monday.

-CL/TM

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A steady-state weather pattern continues into early next week as
a large and occluded low continues to spin in the northern Bering
Sea. Broad longwave troughing over the Bering Sea and Aleutians
will remain nearly stationary as several weak shortwaves round the
base of the trough. Breezy winds and increased rain chances will
coincide with these waves as they track across the southern Bering
and Aleutians and into Bristol Bay through Sunday. Elsewhere
across the rest of the Bering and Southwest Alaska, scattered
showers and weakening west to southwest winds persist through the
weekend as the cyclonic upper level flow begins to weaken and the
upper low continues to fill in and drift into Norton Sound.

Heading into early next week, the pattern begins to progress as a
much more robust shortwave reaches the Western Aleutians Monday
afternoon and the stagnant troughing breaks down over the region.
As this shortwave drives south across the western Bering,
increasing small craft winds and potentially gale-force gusts
spread across the Aleutians from approximately Shemya to Adak. The
signal in the models is that this wave amplifies, but digs well
south thereafter over the North Pacific while ridging nudges into
the western Bering. Southwest Alaska slowly trends cooler through
the end of the short term, with overnight lows dropping to near
freezing Tuesday morning area wide.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off with a strong low in the North
Pacific tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula. The low will bring
strong northerly gap winds in the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula
starting Wednesday. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air
advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday,
strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around
the island. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral
Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and
strength of the low, which are somewhat uncertain at this point.
Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and
coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low
weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will
diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low
moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered
as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to
calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Saturday sees
the remnants of Koguma and Nolo potentially merge with the low,
leading to an increase in rainfall and winds, but this will be
mostly east of Southcentral towards the Juneau area. There is
still plenty of uncertainty with these scenarios, so the forecast
will be clarified as time progresses.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...
Wind will be the major issue through the evening hours with an
Airport Weather Warning in effect until 1 AM Sunday morning for
wind gusts between 35 and 40 knots. Peak winds should be this
evening right before a slow-moving front passes through the
airport. After frontal passage, the wind should decrease, but
without the strong cross-barrier flow, ceilings and visibility are
also likely to lower in heavier rainfall. Rain with occasional
MVFR conditions are expected overnight with rainfall tapering off
late Sunday morning. Even after the rain ends, ceilings may remain
at or near MVFR levels well into the afternoon.

&&

$$

932
FXAK69 PAFG 102134
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
134 PM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A High Wind Warning is out for the Alaska Range through Sunday
morning with strong southerly winds peaking around 60 to 70 mph.

- Snow is likely in the AK Range with 8 inches possible along
the Parks and Richardson Highways this weekend. The bulk of it
occurs through Saturday night south of Denali Park and Sunday
south of Trims Camp. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued.

- A brief period of warming is expected with high temperatures
in the Interior in the upper 40s on Saturday.

- Rain showers are likely over the Eastern Interior Sunday, with
higher terrain in the area likely seeing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Water levels along the Norton Sound are expected to stay high
through the weekend and gradually decrease into early next
week.

- Showers and breezy conditions remain across Western Alaska
through early next week.

- In the extended forecast, another low pressure system may bring
additional rain and winds to the West Coast later next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to persist
throughout the weekend over most of the Arctic Plains
resulting in very light accumulations.

- Strong southerly winds through the Brooks Range are expected
to gust 25 to 35 mph through Sunday morning.

- A cooling trend is imminent, with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s today likely to drop into the low to mid 20s by
mid next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A large low pressure system over the Bering Sea continues to
dominate the weather through the early portions of next week.
Winds weaken along the West Coast as chances of rain and snow
extend to cover most of Northern Alaska this weekend. Calmer
weather is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At the start of the forecast period, Saturday, the pattern
remains dominated by a large low pressure system over the
Western Bering Sea. High pressure over Eastern Alaska is pushed
out of the state Saturday as the low continues to wear at the
upper level ridge to the east. The low has weakened considerably
and is near 978 millibars as of midday Saturday. As the low has
weakened it has lost much of its more organized features causing
winds to weaken along the coast and precipitation to become
more widespread, but generally lighter. One of the waves of
precipitation rotating around the low as a front on the south
side of the low gets enhanced Saturday as a shortwave rotates
through the upper level pattern. This enhanced `front` helps to
push the upper level ridge over Eastern Alaska into Canada and
allows the low to finally push towards the West Coast after
several days of being stalled in the Western Bering Sea.

Since the low will have further weakened by the time this
eastward push happens, the change in impacts over the West Coast
is minimal. Winds continue to weaken slowly with precipitation
continuing and high water levels slowly receding through the
weekend. Over the Interior, a larger change in impacts is
expected as the high pressure is fully pushed out of the state.
Chances of rain and snow push across the rest of the Interior
with heavier snow expected along the southern slopes of the
Alaska Range. Snow levels are expected to be low enough for all
snow for the Alaska Range, including the highest points of the
Parks and Richardson Highways, but if they warm more than
expected then snow amounts may be less amongst more mixed
precipitation.

Monday and Tuesday are mostly a continuation of conditions
Sunday as the low continues to weaken over the northern Bering
Sea. By late Tuesday a low moves into the western Gulf of
Alaska which pulls what remains of the Bering Sea low into it
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the start of the extended forecast period, late Tuesday, a
low moves from the North Pacific into the western Gulf of Alaska
that will absorb what remains of the Bering Sea low. By
Wednesday the low will be centered far to the south of the
region which will keep Northern Alaska in a troughing regime.
Under this troughing chances of rain and snow continue with
relatively light winds and cool temperatures through the end of
the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
The Bering Sea low continues to weaken in place. Water levels
remain higher than normal through the Monday. Each high tide
along from Hooper Bay through the Chukchi Sea Coast is expected
to be 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide with a few
locations along the Southern Seward Peninsula in the 1 to 3 foot
range. Due to these continued elevated water levels erosion
remains a possibility, especially for areas vulnerable to south
to southeasterly winds. No flooding is expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ848.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ803-
805-806-810-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804-
807>809-851-854>856.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Stokes
SYNOPSIS.......Stokes
SHORT TERM.....Stokes
LONG TERM......Stokes
COASTAL........Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Stokes

124
FXAK67 PAJK 102320
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
320 PM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf
coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the
panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Active weather pattern continues through the work week.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move
into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...High cloud cover is making it way toward the
panhandle this Saturday afternoon ahead of an incoming front.
Saturday evening is expected to remain mainly clear, allowing
daytime heating to escape into the atmosphere, causing
temperatures overnight to dip into the low 40s and 30s. However,
lower clouds are expected to blanket the panhandle through the
night, which will cause temperatures to likely not reach below 30
degrees. Rain is expected to reach Yakutat by 10pm Saturday night
and push into the northern panhandle by 10am Sunday. This front is
then expected to be met by quick moving energy from the tropics
by the time it reaches the southern panhandle. Models are still
split on the exact timing of rain reaching the southern
panhandle, arriving as early as afternoon to as late as early
Sunday morning. Convection was also considered with this front
along the northern gulf coast, reaching as far south as Sitka and
as far inward as Gustavus, as well as Skagway. Guidance indicates
strong CAPE and shear, however, 850mb temperatures are too cold
to support thunderstorms. However, this does not rule out the
possibility convective showers which will be associated with
periods of heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain totals through Sunday
night are expected to be 1-1.5" for Yakutat. For the panhandle
around, 0.25-0.75" of rain possible, with the higher amounts along
Icy Strait Corridor. With the drier, colder airmass in place
ahead of the front, snow levels could initially be low enough over
the northern highways (1.5-2.5kft) late tonight into Sunday
morning for snow to mix in as the rain begins near White Pass and
the upper reaches of the Haines Highway, but no accumulation
expected. Any snow will quickly transition to all rain by late
morning as snow levels quickly rebound.

.LONG TERM.../Monday to Friday/...A series of disturbances will
follow behind the front on Sunday, keeping rain in the forecast
Monday through early week. A low looks to swing up from the south
into the Haida Gwaii area late Monday through the day Tuesday,
bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside
light to moderate rain. This low looks to stay southward, not
pushing as far up into the panhandle as it clips the southern
coast, though some weak disturbances will continue to bring some
rain to the northern panhandle / NE Gulf coast early through
midweek. Not expecting much overall for this quick moving low,
with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern
panhandle, and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further
northward impacted by the disturbances pushing across the Gulf.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected
to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the
forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to not
impact the panhandle until Thursday, with the setup / location of
the low center and its strength still being quite different
across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in
time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind
impacts. Generally expecting two solutions: a stronger low staying
further west and not impacting the panhandle until later Thursday
to Friday, and a low impacting the panhandle sooner Thursday but
with a bit weaker of a setup. Still overall looking to bring some
elevated winds and rainfall to the area.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue this afternoon as clouds
continue to move closer to coast. Yakutat has already seen clouds
moving in as well as ceiling starting to lower. As the front gets
closer to Yakutat, ceilings should continue to lower before rain
starts to get closer. The front should move from north to south this
evening into tomorrow morning bringing MVFR conditions as ceilings
lower. Winds along the front will be where the strongest winds are
expected. Behind the front, conditions are expected to improve with
some clearing possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front has begun to make its way across the gulf
and is anticipated to reach the eastern gulf late tonight into
Sunday morning. This front will increase winds across the gulf to
south and southeasterly 25 to 35 kts. The strongest of these winds
are most likely to be over the far northern gulf, near Cape
suckling, early Sunday morning. the front will then continue to move
easterly pushing into the panhandle early Sunday morning. This will
keep stronger south southeasterly winds, near 20 to 30 kts, across
the gulf coast through Sunday afternoon. Winds behind the front will
become southwesterly and quickly decrease. Associated with these
stronger winds, seas will build to 10 to 15 ft, with the highest
significant seas once again over the far northern gulf. Improving
marine conditions behind the front Sunday night, with winds
weakening and seas becoming 5 to 7 ft through early next week.
Looking ahead, we are paying attention to increasing winds and seas
by midweek. This is due to a potential storm force low/front lifting
into the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Winds remain on the lighter side this Saturday
afternoon at or below 15 kts. Winds across the northern and central
inner channels have become southerly ahead of the next frontal
system that will reach the panhandle early Sunday morning. This
front will increase southerly winds across the inside waters to 15
to 25 kts. Strongest winds will be located over Lynn Canal as the
pressure gradient increases with the front. Winds will begin to
decrease late Sunday into early Monday with Clarence Strait seeing
some high winds near 15 to 20 kts continue through Monday evening.
Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early
next week with winds becoming light. Similarly to the gulf,
increasing winds and seas are anticipated by midweek ahead of a
potential stronger low/front impacting the region late next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-
671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAB

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