Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

025
FXAK68 PAFC 180127
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to move over Southcentral
Alaska the rest of today and through tonight. Depending on cloud
cover, fog and low stratus may form across the area. Wednesday
morning, as the ridge axis shifts east, Southcentral will enter
southwesterly flow aloft. Weak waves embedded within the flow will
cause light snow to fall across the area Wednesday. 1 to 2 inches
is expected across Anchorage with 2 to 4 inches along the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides and Matanuska Valley. Little
accumulation is expected along the western portion of the Susitna
Valley and the Kenai Peninsula, except for Turnagain Pass and
Portage/Whittier where 1 to 2 inches is possible. Along Broad Pass
and eastern portions of the Susitna Valley, including Talkeetna,
expect around 2 to 4 inches. The "snow winners" out of this system
will be for locations in the eastern Copper River Basin where
snow looks to linger through Thursday morning. Totals from
McCarthy to Chitina and up to Slana will range from 3 to 6 inches
of snow. On the backside of this system, freezing drizzle is
possible across Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, and along the
interior and Western Kenai Peninsula Wednesday evening and night
as low-level moisture remains with the dendritic growth zone
drying out.

Attention quickly shifts to a broad Arctic trough and associated
strong cold air advection dropping southeastward out of Siberia
and over Southcentral starting Thursday. Gap winds through all
coastal passages and through the favored terrain will increase
beginning Thursday and peak in strength Friday morning during the
strongest cold air advection. There are still questions and some
uncertainty about how strong the winds might be. One thing that
does stand out is that despite the strong cold air advection, flow
aloft and surface pressure gradients do not support an impactful
wind event for the Matanuska Valley. Also of note is that any snow
that falls Wednesday will most likely be transportable, unless it
is glazed over by any freezing drizzle Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning. Therefore, blowing snow could become an issue,
Thursday into Friday; especially across Whittier and Thompson
Pass. Temperatures will remain somewhat elevated with the winds
blowing, despite the strong cold air advection. However, when
winds diminish this weekend, temperatures will drop quickly.

Looking into the marine forecast, sustained storm-force winds
with hurricane-force gusts are likely through the Barren Islands
and across Augustine southward through Shelikof Strait Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. These strong winds in conjunction
with the cold Arctic air will combine to produce extreme vessel
icing at rates of 4 cm or greater from Augustine southward through
Shelikof Strait. The greatest chance for extreme vessel icing in
Shelikof Strait is along the immediate coast of the Alaska
Peninsula. As winds diminish on Saturday, icing rates will
decrease. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for both the
Shelikof Strait marine zone as well as for the zone west of the
Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay to bring awareness to the
extreme freezing spray/extreme vessel icing concerns for Thursday
afternoon through Friday night. Stay tuned to the forecast as
finer details are ironed out on the magnitude of gap winds for
Thursday and Friday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

Active weather is underway across Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutians. GOES satellite imagery shows a front draped across the
region from the Kuskokwim southwest through near the Pribilofs
Islands and to near Adak Island. This front is currently bringing
snow and gusty winds to the Kuskokwim Delta, where approximately 2
to 4 inches of snow accumulation is expected. The primary hazard
with this event is the accompanying gusty winds to the snow, where
visibilities may be reduced to a half mile or less at times.

This front will sag southeastward overnight, with precipitation
coming to an end for the Kuskokwim by the early morning and precip
beginning across greater Bristol Bay. Warm air ahead of this front
may result in a brief period of rain or mixed precipitation before a
combination of wet-bulbing and cold air advection quickly
transitions any liquid hydrometeors to snow. Accumulation across
Bristol Bay will be limited, generally less than inch, with slightly
higher totals towards Lake Iliamna up through Port Alsworth and the
Lake Clark region.

A second shortwave trough following on the heels of this system will
bring about another chance of snow showers to portions of Southwest
AK late Wednesday into early Thursday along a reinforcing cold
front. Snow showers will begin late Wednesday across the Kuskokwim
Delta before moving farther southeast overnight. These showers
should be rather quick-moving and short in duration, but may drop a
quick dusting to inch of snowfall, in addition to gusty winds.
Quick, spotty, though significant visibility reductions can be
expected with these squalls. A few showers may make it downstream
of the Ahklun-Kuskokwim Mountains, but will be more isolated in
nature and produce little snowfall accumulation.

Thursday and Friday will will be characterized by 1) very cold,
mostly dry, and breezy conditions across Southwest AK and the AK
Peninsula and 2) mild, wet, and windy conditions cross the
Aleutians, especially farther west along the chain. Southwest AK
will see temperatures drop to 10 to 20 degrees below climatological
average, with highs generally in the single digits by Friday and
lows back to below zero.

-Brown

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An upper level trough moves south into the Gulf of Alaska,
transitioning the pattern to a more amplified setup. Ridging
builds over the Bering while a deeper trough settles over the
Gulf, allowing an Arctic airmass to spread across Southwest and
into Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions trend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing skies combined with cold air in place will
support strong radiational cooling and colder overnight
temperatures.

By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances begin
returning to western Alaska, with timing still uncertain.

The pattern turns more unsettled as the next system approaches
from the west. Increasing clouds are expected with a chance of
snow returning to portions of Southcentral Alaska. Confidence in
timing and snowfall amounts remain low this far out.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail
through tonight and into early Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities are possible beginning mid-morning Wednesday as
light snow develops over the terminal.

&&

$$

514
FXAK69 PAFG 180015
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Another significant winter storm is impacting Alaska
over the next several days bringing high winds and widespread
heavy snow accumulations to the state. Winter weather hazards are
in effect through the rest of the today for the West Coast and
Western Interior, then begin for the Central and Eastern Interior
by this evening. An additional 4-8" of snow is expected in areas
along southern facing slops throughout Western Alaska today, with
blizzard conditions persisting for coastal areas within the YK
Delta, Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast. Heavy snow spreads
eastward into the Interior tonight, reaching the Fairbanks area
before midnight. Moderate, to at times heavy, snow persists
through the morning and early afternoon hours with 4-6" of snow
accumulations in Fairbanks by Wednesday evening. A secondary
round of snow showers develops across Western Alaska Wednesday
night then pushes eastward on Thursday into the Interior,
potentially dropping another couple inches of snow in areas under
heavier snow showers. Drier and much colder air sets up Thursday
through the weekend, resulting in the return of lows in the -20F
to potentially -40F degree range each morning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories go into effect this evening
through Thursday where widespread snowfall accumulations of 4 to
10 inches are expected. Highest amounts likely north and west of
Fairbanks where isolated spots could see 10 to 15 inches by
Thursday evening.

- Much colder temperatures Friday through the weekend with lows
potentially below -30F Saturday and Sunday mornings.


West Coast and Western Interior...

- Blizzard conditions persist along the West Coast with heavy snow
spreading into the Western Interior tonight into Wednesday.

- Snowfall amounts range from 6 to 12 inches along the coast to up
to 15 inches of snow in the Kobuk Valley.

- Much colder air arrives Thursday and Friday with double digit
sub zero lows. Expect a warming trend into the weekend ahead of
the next winter storm Saturday and Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Strong winds and light snow continue through tonight for the
Western Brooks Range/Chukchi Sea Coast and blizzard conditions
around Point Hope and potentially Point Lay.

- South winds increase with gusts to 50 mph in Anaktuvuk and
Atigun Pass through Wednesday evening. This may result in areas
of blowing snow to 1/2 mile.

- On the south side of the Brooks Range, light snow moves in tonight
with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected in Coldfoot and along the
Dalton Highway through Wednesday night.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level low and associated surface reflection over
Western Siberia are responsible for the current round of winter
weather impacting the state of Alaska this week. Satellite imagery
shows an impressive fetch of moisture ahead of these systems
spanning from near the Philippines to the West Coast of Alaska.
Observed and forecast soundings indicate strong unidirectional
southwest flow and deep saturation through the column under an
area of strong lift and upper level divergence. This atmospheric
river type set up with a cold airmass at the surface is ideal for
widespread heavy snow and strong winds through Western Alaska and
the interior. Over the next 24 hours, the upper jet and best
moisture advection shift eastward into the Interior, bringing
widespread moderate to heavy snowfall further eastward as well.
Forecast soundings continue to show deep saturation into the
Interior, but wanted to focus on snow to liquid ratios (SLR) which
have an impact on overall snow amounts. While there is deep
saturation through both low and mid level dendritic growth zones,
strong winds and shear through the column may fracture dendrites
resulting smaller flakes and lower SLRs...similar to what happened
over the weekend with the initial round of snow. Confidence is
still high for widespread accumulating snow across the region, but
will watch snowflake type as this event unfolds as finer, smaller
flakes may lead to more compaction and lower snowfall amounts,
despite not change in actual liquid amounts.


By Wednesday afternoon and evening, the Alaska range cuts off
southwesterly moisture advection into the Interior. Flow becomes
westerly over the state as the low over Siberia moves into NW
Alaska and another mid to upper level waves moves in from the
Bering. A front traverses west to east across the state Wednesday,
marking the shift from to westerly winds. BUFKIT soundings show
enhanced lift right along this front before dry air advects in
behind it, so expect a brief periods of locally higher snowfall
rates, low vis, and windy conditions as the front passes through,
including Fairbanks. This wind shift looks to occur around 3PM for
Fairbanks and earlier in the morning/afternoon for points west.
Steep low level lapse rates right along and behind the front may
result in a period of convective snow showers briefly before dry
air shuts off precipitation. Any convective snow shower has the
possibility of produces 1-2+ inch per hour rates, low visibility,
and a brief period of strong winds. A brief period of dry
conditions exists post front Wednesday evening before the next
wave moves in from the west.

The next round of snow Wednesday night into Thursday should be
more showery in nature; however could be intense at times. A
westerly flow pattern sets up during this time period with strong
cold air advection aloft steepening low and mid level lapse rates
with a saturated DGZ close to the surface. These potentially
convective snow showers will likely be low topped; however strong
omega through a near surface DGZ should lead to more efficient
dendrite production and higher snow to liquid ratios. Similar to
the previous day, any convective snow shower may result in 1-2+ inch
per hour rates, low visibility, and a brief period of strong
winds. While the bulk of the accumulating snow occurs Wednesday,
several inches of additional snow should occur Thursday in the
Interior. Any location that gets numerous heavy snow showers or
those in westerly upslope favored areas may receive higher snow
amounts than forecast.

Conditions improve Thursday for the majority of the West Coast and
Western Interior as ridging builds in overhead. Watching the
Northwest Arctic Coast north of the Seward Peninsula for continued
blowing snow Thursday as strong winds become northwesterly under
the sting jet of the surface low. Areas not prone to high winds
should expect benign conditions Thursday in the west. Much drier
and colder air advects in from Siberia and the high Arctic
plummeting temperatures into the double digits below zero Thursday
and Friday. This same arctic airmass makes its way eastward into
the Interior Friday into the weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

A much colder and drier airmass settles in over Alaska as strong
ridging builds over the Bering Straight and troughing deepens over
the eastern Interior and NW Canada. Latest guidance has strong
agreement on 850mb temperatures as low as -30C Friday through
Saturday before the ridge shifts east pushing the core of the
arctic airmass into Canada. Skies clear from west to east on
Friday, keeping the eastern half of the state relatively mild
compared to those areas that clear out further west. Saturday
morning is expected to be the coldest morning across Northern
Alaska as the core of the cold airmass overlaps with clearing
skies. Saturday morning has the best chance at lows below -30F,
and potentially below -40F in typically cold valleys. The arctic
airmass begins shifting eastward by Sunday, however Sunday morning
may be another cold one for the Eastern Interior as lows make a
run for -30F to -40F once again. A "warming" trend shifts across
the rest of the interior toward the latter half of the weekend
and into the beginning of next week as yet another winter storm
impacts the state from the southwest. More details on this next
system in the coming days as longer range guidance agrees on the
overall evolution and set up.

Across the west, a significant warming trend is expected by
Saturday as the ridge axis aloft shifts east, placing Western
Alaska in a southwest flow pattern once again with strong warm air
advection ahead of the next system. Temperatures rise near the
freezing mark for coastal locations this weekend with another
round of heavy precipitation for the majority of the West Coast.
Additional winter weather headlines may be needed as confidence
increases in the finer details of the next winter storm. Friday
may be the one relatively benign day for all of Western Alaska as
the parade of storms continue to impact the state.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-815-817.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-816-819-823-824.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809-818-826-828-829.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ820>822-825-827.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ834-838-841>846.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ839-840-847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-813-850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-812-816-817-851-852-854-858.
Gale Warning for PKZ807-808.
Gale Warning for PKZ809>811-855>857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

CRM

195
FXAK67 PAJK 180039
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Tue Feb 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Strong north and northeast winds continue slightly diminishing
throughout the day Tuesday. Winds will relax late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

- Temperatures continue to trend down through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday night / Cold dry outflow
continues from tonight through Wednesday. The biggest thing is that
the outflow pattern is weakening overnight night so the winds in
the Lynn Canal regions lowering from 30 mph to 15 mph. The resulting
wind gusts diminishing as well. The later half of Wednesday will
have cooler air temperatures across the Southeast Panhandle, which
will help set up the area for a some light snow starting to push
in from the west over the northern gulf of Alaska will start to
move to the NE gulf coast and northern coastal area late Wednesday
night.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday night the axis of a ridge aloft will
continue transiting east into B.C, with the stout pressure
gradient which was responsible for our strong outflow weakening,
leaving much lighter winds for the inner channels. Westerly flow
upstream of the ridge axis will begin to transport some moisture
into the Panhandle early Thursday, helping drive some snow
Thursday into Friday. Current forecast shows the best snow
potential along the northern coast and in the central and southern
Panhandle, with a range of 3 to 7 inches possible; 2 inches or
less for Juneau north. Friday the longwave trough begins to dig
south, forming into a closed low along the western seaboard over
the weekend. As this feature transits south, a very tight surface
pressure gradient forms again between an arctic high in Canada and
the relative warm waters of the Gulf, increasing the confidence
that strong gale force outflow winds return for many inner
channels through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 00z Thursday/...Widespread VFR conditions
continue with clear skies and perfect VIS. Winds have decreased
for half of the panhandle, while some sites are still attempting
to hold on to 20 to 30 kt gusts. Haines and Gustavus are still
experiencing isolated gusts up to 20 kts, though these are
expected to diminish through the evening. Skagway, Juneau, and
Wrangell are expected to hold onto their gusts for longer, with
Juneau dropping off overnight, Wrangell staying around 20 kts
through the night, and Skagway staying around 30 kts and starting
to increase again towards the end of the period. Toward the end of
the period, sustained winds in Haines may increase again with the
increase of gusts in Skagway. LLWS, mainly speed shear, at around
1000 ft is still hanging around near typical outflow exits, such
as Taku Inlet or the mouth of the Stikine. As such, LLWS in Juneau
is mainly impacting Gastineau Channel. This is expected to
diminish as winds calm down, so LLWS may persist longer for
Wrangell.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Offshore flow from the channels diminishes through the
day on Tuesday evening. Seas are on their way down, with residual
NW seas, masking SW swell generated from a system a few days ago
south of the Aleutians. Significant heights less than 12ft by
Tuesday evening, and between 5-9 feet on Wednesday, with the
highest seas over the open Gulf. Mariners should be aware of
northerly outflow out of major inlets/bays along the northern
coast, reaching gale to strong gale force, generating moderate to
heavy freezing spray through the daytime hours on Tuesday.

Inside: Tuesday dawns with gale force winds are howling across
the northern and central inner channels, along with usual outflow
areas. The current forecast maintains sustained winds of strong
gale force in Lynn Canal, with widespread gales along and north of
Sumner Strait through Tuesday evening. These winds will generate
freezing spray, with moderate to heavy freezing spray for prime
areas like northern Lynn and Taku Inlet. Expect winds to slowly
diminishing Tuesday night into Wednesday, with moderate to fresh
breezes expected Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.
However, Friday evening winds are expected to ramp back up to gale
force for most central/northern channels with the threat of heavy
freezing spray becoming more extensive.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ319-323-
325-331.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ326.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
Wednesday for AKZ327-332.
Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328.
Cold Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ329.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST
Wednesday for AKZ330.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-012.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013-053.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031-032-034-641-643-644-
651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Bezenek

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