Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

369
FXAK68 PAFC 031442
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

- A light mix of rain and/or freezing rain is possible this morning
through early afternoon for portions of the western Kenai with
lesser chances for the Anchorage Bowl and Eagle River.

Discussion:

Snow looks to be winding down across the northern Susitna and Copper
Valleys per webcams, therefore the Winter Weather Advisories for the
Susitna Valley and norther Copper Valley have been cancelled.
However, there will likely still be pockets of light snow this
morning, so caution is still advised if traveling north along the
Parks or Richardson Highways.

Elsewhere, the weather overnight has been pretty quiet with gusty
winds along the Hillside areas having decreased. The PANC ROAB
soundings from both 00Z and 12Z show significant warm, dry air
several hundred feet above a strong surface inversion, which has
made for widely varying overnight temperatures. Areas that have seen
occasionally breezy winds have had temperatures ranging from the mid
30s to lower 40s. Those areas that have stayed calm overnight have
stayed consistently in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will come
into play later as another round of precipitation starts to work
north across the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. Early morning water
vapor imagery shows this wave near Kodiak Island where light rain is
falling. A band of precipitation is has also started to push
northward across the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula where light
rain briefly fell in Homer and Seldovia as it moved through. It is
uncertain how far north this initial band is expected to make it
before either dissipating or stalling until the next push later this
morning. If it does make it into Kenai/Soldotna, temperatures there
are currently in the upper 20s, and while temperatures might warm to
near to just above freezing, some localized light freezing rain is
likely. The next push of precipitation will come a little later this
morning as the wave lifts north towards the Barren Islands where it
will then take a slight jog to the east, moving along the eastern
Kenai Coast before moving into Prince William Sound. This second
push will bring another round of precipitation across the southern
Kenai and Cook Inlet.

Much more uncertainty exists further north for the Anchorage Bowl,
Eagle River, and the southern Susitna Valley. With the low expected
to weaken as it tracks up along the coast towards Prince William
Sound, and quite a bit of warm, dry air in place just above the
surface...any precipitation will be fighting hard to make it to the
surface unless we get saturate a little further down. Several of the
high-res models do have the moistening of the lower-levels
occurring, but not until early afternoon. So while there is a chance
for a period of light rain/freezing rain for Anchorage and Eagle
River (and possibly the lower Susitna Valley), it does appear that
better chances will exist along the Hillside areas where it will be
easier for precipitation to make it to the surface.

The Gulf Coastal zones will also see another round of precipitation
from this shortwave with some precipitation spilling over into the
southern Copper Basin where precipitation may start out as rain
before changing over to snow by this evening.

Looking a bit further out in time... A cooling trend will be in
store heading into the weekend as an Arctic airmass drops south
across Alaska.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A strong low in the Bering is currently located south of
Nikolski, and is the primary driver for the active weather pattern
across both the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. This low
is bringing storm force winds into the Pribilof Islands and gale
force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The low is also
advecting warm air and moisture into the Southwest Mainland. This
warm air allows temperatures to warm above freezing aloft while
temperatures remain below freezing in the much of Kuskokwim Delta
and the lower Kuskokwim Valley. However, the whole column of
temperatures remained below freezing along the southwest and west
coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. This, along with
gusty winds is allowing for blizzard conditions for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is warm
enough for precipitation types to remain as rain.

Through this morning, the low will continue weakening, but gusty
winds in the Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will
continue. Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will
significantly decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may
still be possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is
still in effect until 9 AM this morning. By Thursday, both winds
and precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air
mass moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly
drop temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By Friday,
pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta, leading
to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the weekend, this
air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low moves into
Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the Kuskokwim Delta
with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the combination of
gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme freezing spray is
possible from Nunivak Island north and west to Cape Newenham. A
Marine Weather Statement has been issued with more details on this
potential.

-JAR/CL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.

Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.


-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Low-level wind shear with calm wind near the surface and
20 knots southeasterly between 500 and 1500 feet tapers off after
16Z. Ceilings generally remain VFR. Chances for light
precipitation return after 19Z with potential MVFR ceilings after
21Z.

-ER

&&


$$

829
FXAK69 PAFG 032327
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Snow is rapidly ending across Northern Alaska this
afternoon as a strong cold front pushes from northwest to
southeast. High pressure setting in behind the cold front will
bring a prolonged period of windy and very cold conditions. Winter
Storm Watches for cold wind chills, strong winds, and blowing snow
are in effect for much of the CWA to cover impactful weather
expected over the weekend and into next week. Winds are likely to
mix all the way down to interior valley floors at times as well.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Skies continue to clear rapidly this afternoon and evening.
Patchy fog is possible as skies clear, but will be short lived.

- Temperatures drop dramatically tonight and tomorrow with all
locations below zero by Thursday morning.

- Strong northeast winds increase as a very cold airmass sets up
Thursday well into next week.
- In terms of wind, locations over 1000ft may gust upwards of 25
to 50 mph. Interior valleys (including Fairbanks) have a chance
to see wind gusts up to 30 mph IF the inversion breaks Saturday
through Monday.
- This could be a significant wind event and end up being
impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages.
- Blizzard conditions are possible Friday and Saturday along the
Parks Highway from Carlo Creek to Cantwell and from Trims Camp to
Fielding Lake along the Richardson Highway.
- Wind chills reaching -40 F to -60 F are very possible Saturday
and Sunday across much of the Interior. Valleys west of
Fairbanks are more likely to see wind mix out inversions.

- A cold trend continues through this weekend well into next week.
Under clear skies and in areas with no wind, temperatures are
likely to drop to -30F to -45F (potentially -50F in the coldest
spots).

- Any clouds will limit how cold it gets and the highest chances
for clouds will be in the Southeast Interior/Upper Tanana
Valley.

- Winter Storm Watches have been issued for strong winds, blowing
snow, and very cold wind chills for the Yukon Flats, Dalton
Highway Summits, White Mountains, and for southwest of
Allakaket.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum
temperatures around or slightly below 0 along the coast and in
the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior Valleys.

- North-northeast winds increase this weekend and if these winds
can break through the inverted valleys, it will bump up
temperatures slightly, but wind chills would still be very cold.
East wind gusts may be up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast and
in the higher terrain.

- With temperatures below 0 and wind this strong, it could lead
to wind chills as low as -50F in some spots.

- Winter Storm Watches have been issued for strong winds, blowing
snow, and very cold wind chills from Koyuk to Huslia and south
to the Yukon Delta from Friday night through Monday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A front moves from the Western Arctic Coast to the Eastern
Arctic Coast between Thursday to Friday with areas of light snow
along the coast. Persistent onshore flow follows afterwards with
much colder temperatures this weekend.

- Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with -20s
inland through Thursday night, then widespread temps near the -30s
with some -40F readings possible in the coldest locations this
weekend.

- High pressure persists well into next week with dry and very
cold conditions, as well as northerly winds and wind chills as
cold as -60 F through Brooks Range Passes.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...As of 1215pm Wednesday, a band
of light to moderate snow stretches from Nikolai to Lake
Minchumina to Nenana to the White Mountains and southeast to the
Alaska Range to Salcha to Circle Hot Springs. This band will
continue to move southeast through tonight with skies clearing
rapidly behind it as snow ends. Patchy fog is possible as clearing
happens, though it should be short lived due to just how rapidly
temperatures will cool. By Thursday morning, many Interior
valleys will be in the 20s below zero, a swing of around 40
degrees in 24 hours. By Saturday morning, the upper level pattern
will feature a closed high over the Chukotsk Peninsula along with
a low over Cook Inlet. This is historically a cold and very
persistent pattern for northern Alaska. The cold and increasingly
windy conditions look to last for over a week. Across the West
Coast, high pressure continues to build with cold and dry
conditions likely to continue well into next week or longer. Winds
will increase mainly southwest of the Seward Peninsula as
multiple low pressure systems move into the Gulf of Alaska,
tightening the surface gradient. For the North Slope, an upper
level low moving south out of the Beaufort Sea will bring clouds
and light snow for Thursday and Friday, but otherwise conditions
will be dry and cold with mainly light winds.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Thursday.
High pressure over the Bering Strait with a low in the eastern
Gulf of Alaska looks to continue through next week. This will
bring prolonged cold to Northern Alaska. Winds look to diminish in
the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as the gradient eases. This will
allow for valley inversions to strengthen, and with 850 mb
temperatures -20 C or colder, conditions may support temperatures
in the -40s or 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ848-850.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826-828>830-832>834-846-847-851-
852.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-817-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Chriest

459
FXAK67 PAJK 040127
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
427 PM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An exiting front brought mainly rain to the panhandle today.
Lingering rain will diminish tonight and tomorrow.

- Onshore flow will keep the warmer-than-normal temps in place
through Thursday. Colder weather begins to slide south into the
area Friday night.

- Late this week into next weekend, long range models are still
hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Thursday night/...
The exiting front from today brought rain and brief elevated
wings. But as it moves out, wind speeds will continue to decrease
with the lingering rain diminishing.

Going into Thursday, continued onshore flow will keep the rainy
and cloudy weather in place with continued warmer-than-normal
temperatures.

Overall, a quiet short term when compared to the pattern change
coming this weekend.


.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...A pattern change going
into this weekend is looking to bring cold temperatures, heavy
precipitation, and strong winds to the panhandle into early next
week.

A system advancing into the northern gulf through Friday will
send a front into the panhandle overnight Friday before stalling
in the northern gulf through the weekend, funneling consistent
moisture over the panhandle. This front will bring moderate to
heavy rain rates to the area, with around an inch expected for a
majority of locations and persisting at similar rates through the
weekend. A cold air mass aloft shifts into the Yukon and continues
to moves southward through the weekend. A tightening pressure
gradient over the northern panhandle will increase outflow winds
through the weekend, helping to funnel the colder air south into
the panhandle. Decreasing temperatures with ample available
moisture will increase the potential for heavy snowfall in the
northern panhandle, extending south through the weekend and into
next week. Highest confidence of snowfall remains across the far N
Panhandle and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Haines and
Skagway starting Friday night, continuing through Saturday.
Looking elsewhere, Yakutat will also see higher amounts of snow,
but currently expecting just below warning levels. Forecast
becomes more of a challenge moving towards the Icy Strait
Corridor, starting as rain and transitioning into a mix by
Saturday, limiting potential amounts initially. Snow level drop
south following the colder temperatures, snow potential will also
move further south towards the corridor, and the rain/snow mix
will then follow into the central panhandle. Stay tuned to the
forecast moving into the weekend as details come into clearer view
regarding potential amounts and refined timing for the Icy Strait
Corridor and Yakutat.

As the gale force low moves into the northern Gulf and a high
sets up to the north of the panhandle into this weekend, northerly
flow begins to set up over the northern panhandle into Lynn
Canal. This cold air mass to the north contributes to the colder
temperature trend over the weekend and into early next week,
alongside bringing stronger winds down Lynn Canal. These winds
will begin to increase Saturday into Sunday with northerly gales
in northern Lynn Canal with 35 to 40 kt winds by Sunday afternoon
as the gradient tightens over the northern panhandle. Winds will
increase in Skagway at this time, however the stronger sustained
winds will likely stay below 30 mph, with the northerly wind not
being expected to be strong enough to dry out the air too much
enough to reduce the snowfall amounts. Other land areas will see
an increase in SE winds as the front moves through, with
diminished winds between the waves of precipitation that push
through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Friday/...Generally, CIGs & VISs are
anticipated to be in the MVFR/IFR flight category range through
the TAF period. SFC winds will be on the lighter side, as well,
primarily staying around 10k or less. LLWS values will also be
relatively benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A front is exiting the area this afternoon.
Behind this front wind speeds have been decreasing. And these
winds will continue their downward trend tonight and into Thursday
as ridging passes over the Gulf waters. Seas will lower to
between 7 and 9 ft for Thursday. Winds and seas look to rise
Thursday night into Friday, especially from Cape Edgecombe south,
as a low will track east through the southern Gulf and towards
Haida Gwaii. For the weekend, a forecasted low near the northern
Gulf will give the eastern Gulf waters 25 to 30 kts with areas of
35 kts. These elevated winds will last into next week.

Inside waters:
A front is exiting the area this afternoon. Winds will continue
to diminish behind the front with lighter onshore flow setting up.
Winds continue this diminishing trend across the inner channels
into Thursday as ridging sets up in the Gulf. Then, winds are
expected to begin to increase Thursday night into Friday with a
system passing to the south of the southern panhandle, with brief
northerly/easterly outflow developing to the north. Southerly
winds return by Friday morning but Friday night, northerly flow
returns to Lynn Canal. Speeds in the inner channels pick up to 20
to 25 kts by Friday night with the weekend seeing 25 to 35 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...ZTK/Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS

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