Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

767
FXAK68 PAFC 311258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The surface low that brought gusty winds and a wintry mix of rain
and snow to Kodiak Island yesterday is continuing to slowly drift
south and east through the southern Gulf this morning. While the
bulk of the precipitation has come to an end across the island, a
remnant surface trough over the island, combined with bands of
showers moving east to west over the northern Gulf, will allow
scattered snow showers to persist for Kodiak through mid-morning
before skies clear and winds diminish and become more westerly.

For the rest of Southcentral, high pressure will continue to keep
the region mainly clear and dry through the end of the week. A
weak upper-level shortwave will move south from the interior later
today. This feature will allow for development of a weak surface
trough over the northern Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday,
resulting in an increase in gap winds for typical locations.
Temperatures across the region today will be similar to those
observed yesterday. For Wednesday, temperatures may be couple of
degrees cooler for interior Southcentral in the wake of the
aforementioned upper-level wave.

A frontal system will then approach Kodiak Island and the western
Gulf by late Wednesday, lifting into the northern Gulf for
Thursday. Expect another round of gusty easterly winds across the
Gulf and Kodiak Island along with a mix of rain and snow.

-TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) North Pacific low brings precipitation to the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday.

2) Weak ridging remains over Southwest Alaska through Thursday.


Discussion:

1) North Pacific low brings precipitation to the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula through Thursday.

A North Pacific low moves steadily eastward along the Pacific
side of the Aleutians through Thursday. Precipitation at its onset
from Adak to Unalaska will be in the form of rain/snow mix.
However, as warm Pacific air moves northward, snow levels rise and
change the precipitation to mostly rain. This sea-level
changeover to an all rain event occurs late this morning as
temperatures quickly jump above 32 degrees. A trace of snow is
possible before this changeover. As the system`s front moves
eastward to the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday, the low takes a more
southeastward track. Additionally, its front begins to dissipate
as it moves from Cold Bay to Sand Point resulting in scattered to
isolated rain/snow showers into the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning. This will keep the sea-level
precipitation as a snow/rain mix through late Wednesday morning.
Widespread snowfall accumulations of an inch are expected through
Wednesday afternoon. High end small craft winds with widespread
gale-force gusts along the front can be expected through Tuesday
before the front begins to weaken Wednesday. Northerly winds
return Thursday across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.


2) Weak ridging remains over Southwest Alaska through Thursday.

Weak ridging moving in from the north, combined with clearing
skies and calm winds, will promote fog development overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning across the Kuskokwim Delta. Elsewhere
across Southwest Alaska, dry and mostly clear conditions expected
through the short-term.


-Johnston

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

By Friday, a low developing along the triple point may form in
the western Gulf, which would promote a more active pattern for
Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds to increase along the Gulf
coast into next weekend, with precipitation spreading along the
region as well. Some stronger northerly gap winds through typical
locations will remain possible through the period as these systems
track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending warmer and approaching
seasonal averages across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska look
to remain steady through the long-term. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the depth of this low and how far north it
progresses. The pattern appears to remain unsettled for much of
the weekend into early next week, with multiple lows approaching
the northern Gulf and moving along south of the Aleutian Chain.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$

920
FXAK69 PAFG 312229
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally benign conditions are expected across most of Northern
Alaska through late this week. Gradually colder temperatures with
highs falling into the low single digits by Thursday are expected
on the North Slope, with warmer temperatures in the 20s and 30s
expected through late this week south of the Brooks Range. From
Wednesday into the weekend, winds will increase on the West Coast,
across Interior summits/elevated areas, and on the Arctic Coast.
Some blowing snow is possible. Light snow showers will be possible
in the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but
accumulations are likely to remain low. The Chukchi Sea coast and
the Western Interior could see up to 2 to 3 inches of accumulation
from Wednesday night through Sunday morning. Next week will see
high temperatures on the North Slope rise back into the teens or
warmer, with temperatures mostly in the upper 20s and 30s south of
the Brooks Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures will be slightly cooler through Wednesday with
increasing cloud cover. High temperatures will range between
about 20F and 32F.

- The next few days could see light snow showers in the White
Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to
be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly
be cloudy and dry.

- Northeast winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds
along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the
Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with
highs from 20F to around 32F.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West
Coast, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress
south across the Western Interior over the next few days,
bringing more chances for snow. Snowfall totals will range could
be as high as around 2 to 3 inches.

- North winds along the West Coast will increase Wednesday night.
The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially
through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope.
Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and
Western Brooks Range from this afternoon into Wednesday with up
to 2" of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend through Thursday,
with daytime temperatures around zero. Areas along the Brooks
Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will increase Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the
Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Generally benign weather continues across Northern Alaska. Highs
south of the Brooks Range will be in the 20s and 30s today and
tomorrow. A trough/warm front in the Central and Eastern Interior
will tilt the balance more toward 30s than 20s from Thursday
onward, with many areas rising above freezing. More substantive
cooling is likely on the North Slope; highs will fall from the
single digits and teens above zero today (20s and 30s on the
Western Arctic Coast) into the low single digits by Thursday
(with teens out west).

Spotty light snow showers are possible today and tomorrow across
the Southern and Western Interior and the Chukchi Sea coast with
cloud cover across the area. Any snow accumulations are likely to
be limited. From Wednesday night through late this week, a low
moving out of the Arctic will track along the West Coast, bringing
more substantive snowfall to the Western Interior. Up to about
two to three inches of total accumulation will be possible through
the weekend, especially for the Lower Yukon Valley area. By late
Wednesday into Thursday, on the northwest side of this low, north
to northeast winds will pick up across the Bering Strait and
western Arctic Coast. Winds could gust up to 35 mph. Similarly
strong east to northeast winds will likewise pick up in the higher
elevation areas of the Interior and the Brooks Range Thursday.
Thursday evening into Friday, easterly winds will pick up on the
eastern Arctic coast and could gust as high as about 35 mph near
Kaktovik.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By Saturday morning into Sunday, winds will diminish across the
Arctic Coast and across the higher elevations of the Interior.
Light snow showers will continue each day in the higher elevations
of the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but
valleys should remain mostly dry. Winds across the Interior appear
relatively light in valley locations to start next week but could
increase across higher elevations with northeast flow. Temperatures
during this time frame are likely to continue a trend of highs in
the upper 20s to mid 30s south of the Brooks Range and in the
teens north of the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

DS

814
FXAK67 PAJK 311907
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1107 AM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.UPDATE.../to add the 18z aviation section/...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Snow showers lifting north of the Icy Strait corridor and
Juneau, diminishing through the morning hours. Rain/snow showers
also decreasing across the central and southern panhandle this
morning.

- The gale force system has shifted more south, further
diminishing its impact on the southern portion of the panhandle.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day, with more normal
temperatures for this time of year: highs of lower 40s to upper
40s across the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
Satellite and CMORPH2 Precip are showing band of snow lifting
north of the Icy Strait corridor and Juneau towards the northern
reaches of southeast Alaska, including Haines, Skagway and
Yakutat, although any accumulations should be minimal as the band
is weakening as it pushes north. Area webcams and surface obs are
indicating snow rates quickly diminishing across Juneau, Hoonah
and Gustavus early this morning as the band lifts north, and the
Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at 4am. Clearing
conditions are expected through the short term as snow ends across
the north and rain/snow mix ends across the south through the day.
Temperatures should moderate a bit more today, with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. With the clearing skies and light winds,
nighttime temps will dip into the mid teens to mid 20s across the
north, with upper 20s to lower 30s across the south.

The gale force system moving from the central gulf down to around
Haida Gwaii continues push this low and sequential front more
south. Some breezy winds with gusts up to 30 mph are still
possible across the southern panhandle and along the central outer
coast. Outflow conditions will increase across the north through
the period, with winds becoming 10 to 20 mph for Haines and
Skagway tonight.

.LONG TERM...
While snow was the main focus Tuesday, clearing skies will be the
theme for Wednesday, April 1st (which, at this time, is not some
sick April Fools joke). Northerly outflow winds will be the
primary threat in Lynn Canal, Chatham, and Stephens; however,
pressure gradient guidance continues to suggest winds of moderate
to fresh breezes, with local areas like Point Couverden and Taku
Inlet seeing strong breezes to perhaps near-gales. Thursday
another low will quickly move into the Gulf, bringing widespread
precipitation. Expecting snow to once again return to region;
however, this system looks to bring in warmer air, increasing snow
levels above 1000 ft for most of the Panhandle by the end of the
week. So, expect snow late Thursday, with a transition to rain
through Friday.

We are moving into April showers as the week comes to a close.
Another low will move through the gulf, bringing swaths of light to
moderate rain beginning Thursday night through Friday morning as the
precipitation moves northward through the panhandle. While there is
80% confidence in the timing of this event, there is uncertainty
surrounding the strength of this low, impacting the total
precipitation amounts that will be seen across the panhandle. For
areas in the northern panhandle, precipitation will begin as a mix
and quickly transition into rain by early Friday morning, while
southern locations will only see rain. Winds look to be the most
impactful overnight Thursday into Friday with the higher winds
concentrated in the southern inner channels and overall outer waters.

Folks fishing the coast, especially smaller recreational vessels
in Sitka Sound, should remain vigilant for Thursday`s low. A
dynamic fetch associated with this low will likely bring in
elevated southwesterly seas into the Sound by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/...Expect VFR flight conditions
for the majority of the panhandle through the period. The
exception will be some lingering low clouds & scattered snow
showers this morning for the extreme northeastern panhandle, which
may reduce CIG & VIS conditions mainly down to around the MVFR
category, which will taper-off by this afternoon, improving that
area to VFR, as well. SFC winds look to be a little gusty through
this afternoon for PAKW & PASI. For PAGY & PAHN, SFC winds look
to remain a little gusty through the TAF period. Around PAKW,
LLWS centered aloft at around 2 kft with magnitudes of around 30
kt out of about 140 deg are expected into this afternoon. SFC
winds & LLWS values remain benign elsewhere through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Gale force winds are building into much of the
central and southern waters this morning as the low out in the
central Gulf continues to push south and east towards Haines
Gwaii. Northeast to east winds will becoming more northerly and
diminish through the night as the lows pushes away towards
southern BC. Seas associated with this system are still expected
to range from 15-22 ft from Cape Spencer down to Dixon Entrance,
due to the long fetch, longer duration, and higher wind magnitude
of the area of gale force winds. Winds and seas continue to
diminish and become relatively benign on Wednesday before
increasing again as another low and front swing through the Gulf
late in the week.

Inside Waters: Moderate to strong winds through the inner channels
today as northerly/easterly outflow strengthens across the north,
with south to southeast winds across the central/southern inner
channels as the gale force low in the central Gulf approaches. As
the low shifts southeast towards southern BC tonight, winds will
become northerly moderate to fresh tonight into Wednesday morning.
Outflow conditions with strong winds continue across the north
tonight into early Wednesday. Winds across the inner channels will
diminish through the day Wednesday as the gradient weakens with
the low pushing further away. Winds pick up from the south on
Thursday with the approach of the next low and front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-033-036-053-642>644-651-
652-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...DS

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