Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

792
FXAK68 PAFC 310018
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Stormy weather continues through late tonight, then a
transition towards widespread showery conditions through the
weekend. By Monday, another front pushes into Southcentral.

* High Wind Warning remains in effect for Cordova through 1 AM tonight.
Winds will continue decreasing for all but Prince William Sound
through the remainder of this evening.

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Thompson Pass
through 10 PM, and for Northern Susitna Valley (including Broad
Pass) through 1 AM.

* Convective snow showers this weekend could lead to periods of
reduced visibilities in heavy snow, especially for higher
elevation roadways during the colder early morning or evening
hours. Our primary area of concern is the Seward Highway from
Primrose north to Turnagain Pass, though confidence is low with
the timing of showers.

Discussion:

As mentioned in this morning`s discussion, this frontal system
(associated with the remnants of former Typhoon Champi) has
over-performed expectations from yesterday. Here are some of the
peak gusts that were observed over the past 24 hours: 79 mph in
Potter Valley (Anchorage), 73 mph in Glen Alps, 70 mph in Eagle
River, 69 mph in Palmer, 69 mph at Ted Stevens Airport, 67 mph in
Rabbit Creek (Anchorage), and 66 mph in Abbott Loop (Anchorage).
Precipitation amounts were about what was forecast, with 24 hour
rain totals of 3.30 inches in Seward, 2.62 inches at Cordova
Airport, and some measurements of as high as 4 to 5 inches at
higher elevation sites around Prince William Sound.

Satellite and radar imagery show the front gradually exiting
eastward this afternoon, with conditions forecast to improve from
west to east through late tonight. The High Wind Warning for
Cordova was extended to 1 AM tonight as the barrier jet is
forecast to stall for longer over the region, while the Winter
Weather Advisory for Northern Susitna Valley was extended to
account for additional moderate snow as weaker shortwaves move in
behind the front.

Looking ahead to this weekend, the main story will be widespread
convective showers as an upper level longwave trough and its
associated low move over Southcentral. The colder air and
bountiful vorticity associated with this feature will drive
robust showers, with the potential for periods of heavy snow
(especially in training showers) along higher elevation roadways
around Prince William Sound. Given all the various shortwaves
rotating around this upper low, it`ll be difficult to hone in on
the exact timing and placement of showers. Still, use caution and
be aware of the potential for sudden visibility reductions in
heavier showers if you`ll be traveling along the Seward Highway
this weekend. The other thing to watch for with this showery
weather pattern will be the potential for lightning in especially
robust convection.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Wind Advisory in effect for Unalaska/Nikolski through 10 AM
AKDT Saturday morning

* Cold air from the north moves in behind the strong Bering low as
it moves into the Gulf of Alaska for this weekend.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians this
weekend and into the new work week. Low tracks look to be a
little more southerly than this past week.

The strong Bering low is currently located in the Western Bering
Sea. This low will continue south and east and over the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) by this evening. Rain will continue across the
Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest and become more showery in nature
for this weekend with cold air moving in. Overall, the forecast
remains largely on track. The coastal flood advisory that was out
until Saturday morning was cancelled. There will be higher water
levels at the Saturday morning tide, but winds have diminished
significantly and the next tide will be lower than the Friday
morning tide.

For Saturday, a push of cold air moves into Southwest and the
AKPEN from the north and west. Temperatures will only make it to
the 30s and low 40s across the area, with the warmer temperatures
along the AKPEN and Bristol Bay coast. Rain showers will also
change over to rain/snow mix across the Kuskokwim Delta and Coast
Saturday and Saturday night.

Flow switches back to the south and southeast for Sunday ahead of
the next storm system moving across the Bering. Initially, on
Saturday, a North Pacific low tracks south of Kamchatka as its
gale-force front moves across Shemya and the western Bering
Saturday evening. The gale-force front spreads gusty southeasterly
winds to Adak/Atka Saturday night through Sunday morning before
making its way to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the
southern AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate
rain will also accompany this front on its eastern journey across
the Bering this weekend. Behind the front, strong winds are
expected to wrap cooler air into the low. Gale force winds are
expected at this time to switch from southeasterly with
southwesterly. Stronger gusts above 55 kt will be possible. There
is a potential for storm force sustained winds or stronger Sunday
(30 to 40 percent).

The front and its gusty easterly to east-southeasterly winds
eventually make it to the coastal Southwest by Monday morning,
along with rain. Right now, this set up does not look conducive
for a coastal flooding threat along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, due
in part to the more offshore/easterly component to the wind.
Continue to monitor the forecast for updates as the active
weather pattern continues to unfold.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The weather pattern will remain active through the long term as a
broad trough with numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea
and far northern Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and
interactions along a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling
to reach a consensus on the track of each respective
storm/shortwave as they move from the Chain into the Gulf. As
such, forecast confidence for the timing of strong winds and/or
rain remains low. Given then abundance of warm air from the
current system, and another warm and wet system on Tuesday, rain
remains the main precipitation type for most populated areas
throughout the southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow
levels are forecast to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the
large spread in storm track there is a large variation in which
areas may be cold enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast
remains noisy, but warmer than normal temperatures and areas of
rain will continue. In comparison to the current weather, impacts
such as wind and rain are more likely to be over the Aleutians,
Kodiak, the Alaska Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will persist
over the terminal through early Saturday morning with gusts of 25
to 40 mph, through around midnight. While wind are expected to
continue to slowly weaken through the overnight hours into
Saturday morning, occasional gusts to around 25 kt are likely to
remain over the terminal through Saturday morning.

Rain showers with MVFR ceilings are possible through this evening
with MVFR visibilities in heavier showers. The precipitation will
likely taper off by around midnight. However, another round of
scattered showers is likely by early Saturday morning. While VFR
conditions are expected to prevail during this time, any heavier
showers could result in brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.


&&


$$

447
FXAK69 PAFG 302220
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- High winds through the ALaska Range Passes will continue to
diminish as we head into the overnight hours. Winds will stay
elevated a bit longer through Isabel Pass than Windy Pass.

- Heavy mountain snow across the Alaska Range will continue this
evening affecting travel along portions of the Parks Highway
as well as the Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp through
Saturday.

- Downsloping winds north of the Alaska Range should help keep
Fairbanks and much of the valley floor mostly dry through the
short term.

- Unseasonably mild conditions continue into Saturday with highs
of 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A cool down will follow
Sunday into Monday as a front brings temps back down closer to
seasonable norms.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Strong northerly winds wind through the Bering Strain and into
the NW Bering will slowly diminish overnight, Allowing for
high surf advisories along parts of the Yukon Delta Coast to
expire on time.

- Widespread precipitation should transition to mainly snow
overnight and into Saturday for the western portions of the
state. Through Saturday snowfall totals will exhibit a range
of 1 to 5 inches (elevation dependent) across the Seward
Peninsula, north towards Kivalina, and the Western Brooks
Range.

- A passing cold front will bring drier and colder conditions
over to wrap up the weekend before another approaching Bering
Sea low returns warmer than normal temps, gusty winds, and
additional precipitation to the region early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Snow spreads across the region through Saturday with generally
lighter accumulations for coastal and lower elevations with
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. Higher totals of
4 to 8 inches are possible for higher passes including Atigun
Pass and western Brooks Range.

- Gusty north to northwest winds along the Western Arctic Coast
will produce areas of blowing snow and localized visibility
reductions through Saturday.

- Unseasonably mild conditions persist through Saturday with
highs in the upper 20`s to low 30`s before a gradual cooling
trend sets in Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of ex-Typhoon Champi will continue to track
eastwards from the SE Bering into the northern Gulf over the
weekend. As this system continues to weaken, strong winds and
heavy snow through the Alaska Range will subside. Likewise high
surf and strong northerly winds through the Bering will also
slowly ease up. Snow will fall the next couple of days across
portions of the West Coast and through the Brooks Range up onto
the North Slope. An area wide transition to more seasonable
temperatures takes place behind a passing front later in the
weekend. Meanwhile another storm likely enters the Bering next
week, which could bring another round of active weather going
forward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active synoptic setup continues across Northern Alaska the
first half of the weekend before a regime shift towards cooler,
more seasonable air arrives Sunday into Monday. The primary
synoptic feature driving current weather is the decaying remnant
low of ex-Typhoon Champi, currently tracking southeastward
through the Southern Bering enroute to the northern Gulf. A
tight surface gradient remains established early this afternoon
between this feature and higher pressure over western Canada.
Guidance continues to indicate cross-barrier flow with enhanced
southerly gap flow through the Alaska Range passes. By early
Saturday morning, gradients will be relaxing as the low slowly
fills, helping to bring wind speeds down substantially by
Saturday afternoon.

In tandem with the the wind gradient, a strong plume of sub-
tropical moisture riding the eastern periphery of the system
continues to impinge on the southern slopes of the Alaska
Range. Moderate to strong upslope flow will continue to sustain
heavy mountain snow into Saturday before eventually winding
down. Conversely, downsloping and rain-shadowing north of the
Range will keep the Fairbanks bowl and lower Tanana Valley
mostly dry.

By Sunday, broad upper level troughing and post frontal cold
advection will overspread the Interior from the west. Model
soundings show 850 mb temps dropping to around -5C to -8C, which
will help to collapse the thermal ridge that has been in place,
thus driving surface temperatures back a little closer to early
November norms by late weekend. To accompany the cooling trend,
building weak surface high pressure will result in drier,
subsident conditions allowing for a rather quiet finish to the
weekend.

Late Sunday and into Monday, guidance once again shows a Bering
Sea low tracking towards the Aleutians. While this feature will
push yet another thermal ridge and enhanced wind field into the
Y-K Delta, mid-level ridging across eastern Alaska should keep
the precipitation and any significant impacts well south and
west of the Interior domain through at least the early part of
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended begins with a weak ridge set up over Northeastern
Alaska. Tuesday, a new low pressure system in the Bering Sea will
begin to track southeast, gradually weakening as it travels along
the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday. Although there still remains
disagreement in the track of this system, most of the current model
guidance supports the storm moving through Bristol Bay/Northern Gulf
Wednesday night/Thursday morning. However, regardless of which track
the models agree upon, this system will likely remain weak. This
will result in most of the impacts associated with this storm to be
limited to isolated to scattered snow showers, gap winds, and gusty
offshore winds along the West Coast/Western Interior.

As we approach the middle of our extended period on Wednesday,
another storm looks to be approaching. This rapidly moving secondary
low pressure system will pass through the Gulf Thursday morning, and
then trend north, crossing through Mainland Alaska on Friday.
Currently there is high confidence in this storm reaching the Gulf
by the end of next week. However, there is still model disagreement
on the strength and location of this storm during this timeframe.
Similarly to the previous system, the impacts associated with this
storm will likely remain outside of our area, getting blocked by
terrain in southern Alaska. With this storm there is potential for
another round of isolated snow showers throughout Alaska, but will
likely be brief and light. Along with the potential for snow, strong
northerly winds are possible within the Bering Strait, which may
lead to some elevated seas and minor coastal impacts. These storms
will continue to be monitored throughout the week.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
Impacts along the west coast due to ex-Typhoon Champi will
continue to diminish heading into the weekend as the system
tracks into the Northern Gulf and weakens. Looking ahead to next
week, another low enters the Bering and will bring the
potential for additional coastal impacts depending on the track.
At this time confidence in the forecast track and strength of
this system remains low. However the situation will continue to
be monitored going forward.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ825.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ837-849.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ847.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKDT tonight for AKZ848.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM AKDT
Saturday for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
Saturday for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT
Saturday for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ806-807-
854-856.
Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ806-817-854.
Gale Warning until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ807.
Gale Warning from 7 PM to 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ807.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ808-855.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ809.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Saturday for PKZ810-850-
853.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ814-
860.
Gale Warning until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ817.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ850-853.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM AKDT Saturday for
PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Saturday for PKZ857.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Laney
SYNOPSIS.......Laney
SHORT TERM.....Laney
LONG TERM......Donner
COASTAL........Laney

318
FXAK67 PAJK 310658
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1058 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Quiet weather through at least late Friday night in the inner
channels. Increasing winds and precip on Saturday.

- Gale force winds expected for much of the gulf Friday night into
Saturday with seas up to 20 ft.

- Active weather expected to continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The relatively quiet weather for the panhandle is
slowly starting to come to an end today as clouds ahead of the
next front are starting to move in. These clouds have already
reached parts of the northern panhandle this afternoon and will
continue to spread east. As this front works to the east, rain
will start to move into yakutat later this evening. Going into the
overnight hours, the precip is then expected to start for most of
the panhandle with some places seeing a mix of rain and snow or
potentially just snow for a few locations before they warm up. The
exception to this will be the Klondike Highway which looks to
stay cold enough through the weekend to see accumulating snow.
With the front stalling over the panhandle Saturday into Sunday
will allow for moisture to remain in the area and 700mb flow will
remain out of the SW. This should allow for snow accumulations to
reach up to 9-14" of snow between Saturday morning and Sunday
morning.

As for the liquid amount of moisture, the NE Gulf coast looks to
see around 1.5-2" of rain starting tonight into tomorrow night.
For the northern panhandle and Gulf coast south of Cape Spencer,
amounts look to be around 0.25-0.75". Moving into Saturday night
to Sunday, rain amounts look to be around 0.5-1.5" for the
panhandle with some isolated pockets of heavier rain. Temperatures
should warm this weekend as well with the front allowing for
places to reach into the mid to high 40s.

.LONG TERM.../ Monday through Thursday/...

We are back in an active pattern here in Southeast, with a new low
and frontal system on the docket every few days. To start the
workweek a shortwave will move north through the southern and to a
lesser extent, central panhandle. While lighter rain will continue
throughout, periods of heavier rain are possible with this wave.
Then come Wednesday, another Gulf low will intensify in the western
Gulf, meanwhile a front attendant to that low will swipe north and
bring the next serious bout of rain to the entirety of the
panhandle. Towards the end of the week a quickly deepening low will
move quickly from the south into the Gulf. Deterministic guidance is
in disagreement of the final track, but most of them have the
central pressure reaching between 960-970 mb. The track and
intensity should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the
forecast process though.


&&

.AVIATION.../Through 6Z Sunday/...A moist frontal band continues
to push eastward into the northern panhandle Friday night,
bringing elevated winds from the southeast and low CIGs around
1500 to 2500 ft through Saturday. Still expecting the main impacts
to aviation will be through the northern panhandle, with the
frontal band already reaching Yakutat and bringing conditions down
to MVFR at the time of writing. The band of rain, lower ceilings,
and increased winds will work gradually east into the northern
half of the Alaska Panhandle late morning into the afternoon
(18Z-21Z) with ceilings and visibilities dropping to MVFR for
Sitka, Gustavus, Juneau, Haines and Skagway progressively. There
looks to be potential for a brief period of improvement behind the
front, which would only reach Yakutat by the end of the period.
The front should be situated well over the northern panhandle by
this point, so brought conditions down to low-end MVFR for a
period with moderate rain bringing lowered VIS for many of the
other northern sites Saturday afternoon. The southern panhandle is
expected to stay VFR through the period, with the front beginning
to move an overcast deck back in by the end of the period.
Included showers in the vicinity for some sites down south, but
may be able to push these back or take them out all together. LLWS
of 25 to 50 kts is anticipated with this front, mainly along the
outer coast for PAYA and PASI. Not expecting any fog development
down south with clouds moving in and temperatures lowering to near
freezing overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong front continues to
move eastward over the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. Winds will
remain elevated, primarily south to southeast gale force ahead of
and along the front. However, winds over Icy Cape to Cape
Suckling are expected to reach storm force from late this evening
and into tonight. Once the front moves through winds will be
become westerly and will drop down to small craft advisory level.
Combined seas along the front will be 15-20 ft, after the frontal
passage seas will ease to 10-15ft.

The aforementioned front will stall out over the AK Panhandle
Saturday. A mesolow forming over the NE Pacific will move through
the southeastern portion of the Gulf Sunday resulting in another
round of increased winds (gale force) and subsequently seas
(15-18ft).

Looking ahead into next week, the next frontal system will begin
moving into the area late Monday and into Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds over the inside waters will begin
to increase ahead of a front late tonight and will remain elevated
through Saturday. The front will stall out over Panhandle/Inside
Waters and winds will slowly ease from the N/NW Saturday night and
into Sunday morning. A mesolow that moves through Sunday will
bring an extra push of winds (gales) to the southern inside
waters.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 1 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ317.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKDT Sunday for
AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon AKDT Sunday for AKZ328.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652.
Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Butwin

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau