Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

558
FXAK68 PAFC 281415
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

For today, a negatively-tilted shortwave trough will lift up from
the western Gulf into Southcentral as the front at the surface
weakens and hangs up along the coast near Cordova and Prince William
Sound. The approaching shortwave could pull enough moisture
northwest to help develop a new band of precipitation across parts
of Anchorage and up into western portions of the Mat-Su, with steady
rain and snow expected to continue across the northern Prince
William Sound. By the afternoon, winds will relax across the Kenai
Peninsula as the air mass around the Cook Inlet region cools
slightly, so the profile should be favorable for mostly snow across
interior valleys with this next round. Snow amounts across the Mat-
Su Valleys and Anchorage will generally stay well under 1 inch. Snow
will shift into the Copper Basin this afternoon and evening, where
storm totals of up to a few inches will be possible through early
Saturday, especially close to Paxson.

By Saturday morning, a transient upper ridge will move in behind the
shortwave trough, ushering in a brief lull in the active pattern. If
skies clear out enough, areas of fog could develop across parts of
the Mat Valley down into Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula
sometime between Friday evening and Saturday morning. The break in
the pattern will not last long, with another strong low and front
expected to move north into the Gulf between Saturday and Sunday. A
secondary surge of warm, moist air will move up with this frontal
system, setting the stage for another round of coastal rain and
unseasonably high snow levels. There will also be some threat for
freezing rain to return to the western Kenai Peninsula up into
Anchorage and the Mat-Su regions.
However, this will depend on a still quite uncertain track for the
Gulf low. A more west track across the Gulf would likely be more
favorable for warmer temperatures and issues with light wintry mix,
while a more east track would drive less warm air inland, and keep
precipitation more confined to the eastern parts of the outlook
area. Stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this next stronger
system going into the weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Areas of fog and low stratus affecting Southwest Alaska from the
Kuskokwim Delta to the Western Capes and parts of Bristol Bay are
expected to clear through the morning, however areas of low
stratus may persist later into the afternoon. Sky conditions will
generally improve across Southwest before a broad, North Pacific
front lifts across the Aleutians this afternoon.

Easterly winds up to gale force are anticipated along with
widespread rain showers for the Aleutian Chain, with near storm
force gusts possible between Unalaska and Atka. The axis of small
craft winds and gales shifts northward into the rest of the
Bering on Saturday, encompassing the Pribilof Islands. For
mariners, seas of greater than 20 feet are forecast on the
Pacific side of the Aleutians, with a smaller area of 20 foot seas
to lifting into the central and western Bering by late Saturday.

As the front approaches the Southwest mainland on Sunday, above
freezing mid- level temperatures and rain move in over freezing
surface temperatures of the Y-K Delta. While some model
divergence still exists concerning precipitation type, the ECMWF
and NAM both indicate increasing chances for periods of mixed
snow and freezing rain Sunday afternoon into Monday for The
Kuskokwim Delta.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term forecast is characterized by uncertainty,
especially closer to the end of next week. Monday starts with a
large North Pacific low south of the Aleutian Islands. This low
will bring a long swath of light to moderate precipitation to the
Aleutians and Bristol Bay. Southcentral Alaska will have lingering
precipitation as a low dissipates in the northern Gulf of Alaska.
By Tuesday, the North Pacific low will track into the Bering,
leading to heavier precipitation and high end gale force to storm
force winds over the Central Aleutians and the Pribilof Islands.
Depending on the guidance being looked at, northwest gale force
winds could affect Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A
front pushes into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing a quick round of
gusty winds and precipitation to Kodiak Island and the
Southcentral coast. However, the true intensity of rainfall and
winds cannot be accurately determined right now. Due to a more
southerly wind direction in the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
the Gulf of Alaska, precipitation will likely be in the form of
rain. If precipitation makes it to the Kuskokwim Delta, snowfall
would be likely.

Wednesday has the low moving eastward, allowing for continued
gusty winds and precipitation in the east Bering. As the low moves
eastward, northerly winds will eventually reach the Southwest
mainland, allowing for cold air advection and thus, cooler
temperatures. The current thinking is that Thursday will be when
this occurs. Some guidance has temperatures dropping below zero
for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Coast, but most keeps
it above zero. Meanwhile, the low may push into the Gulf of Alaska
by Thursday, bringing precipitation and increased wind speeds
there with high uncertainty on exactly where.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with ceilings above 5000 ft and light
northerly winds will persist through the TAF period. However,
there is a chance for light snow between around 18Z through 0Z
today, which has the potential to drop ceilings below 5000 ft or
even to MVFR at times. Fog may also develop tonight as winds at
and near the surface slacken while low-level moisture lingers
underneath a transient ridge moving over the region. This
introduces potential for IFR visibility through Saturday morning.
Later on Saturday, any fog would be scoured out by increasing
northerly winds. Then, precipitation chances increase with the
arrival of another frontal system.

Quesada

&&


$$

784
FXAK69 PAFG 281408
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet day across much of Northern Alaska as high pressure
continues to influence the area. This will begin to change
Saturday night as a low pressure in the Southern Bering Sea will
bring warmer temperatures and tropical moisture. This tropical
moisture will bring chances early next week for snow, wintry mix,
rain, and freezing rain to the Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures warm through Sunday with highs in the single digits
to teens increasing to the teens to mid 20s. The Yukon Flats
north to the Brooks Range remains colder with highs rising into
the upper single digits.

- Gusty easterly winds through Delta Junction with gusts up to 60
mph through this morning.

- Cloud cover increases from the southwest through the weekend. Tnight
we could see areas of flurries with a slight chance for light
accumulating snow along elevated terrain in the Eastern
Interior.


West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs
temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s. These are expected
to persist into early next week.

- Winds will begin to weaken later this afternoon across the
Northwest Interior. North to northeast winds will begin to build
back up across much of the West Coast Saturday night. We will
see wind gusts up to 45 mph with these winds.

- Light snow is continuing across the Norton Sound coastline.
These communities are expected to only see an additional inch of
snow this morning. This afternoon the band of light snow will
move north towards the Kobuk Valley. Snow accumulations up to 2"
are expected in this region.

- Chances of rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix from the Yukon
Delta east to the Upper Kuskokwim increase Sunday. Confidence is
low for potential ice accumulations. Chances remain through
early next week. A winter storm watch has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 today. Temperatures
rise around 10 degrees Saturday and remain warmer through at
least Monday.

- Mostly clear conditions today. Isolated pockets of low stratus
and fog still linger. Areas with lingering fog could see ice
accrete onto surfaces. The ice accretion would lead to slick
surfaces.

- Easterly winds begin to weaken today across the Arctic
Coastline. West of Point Barrow will see winds turn
southwesterly Saturday and gust up 25 mph.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A broad area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean and Western
Canada will continue to entrench itself in the area. An area of
low pressure will move into the Chuckchi Sea by Saturday with a
stout frontal boundary associated with it. This front will move
into the Northwest Arctic Saturday night bringing cooler
temperatures. By Monday afternoon the front will set up in the
Western Interior north of Galena. This arctic cold front will help
to stop more of the warm air from the south to reach into the
Northern Interior. On Sunday we will see the first upper-level
shortwave to move into the Y-K Delta, Lower Yukon, and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley. This shortwave will see our first chance to see
a wintry mix in the region. Models are indicating a warm nose from
850 to 900 mb with temperatures up to 1C. This would allow for
melting to begin, but wouldn`t be enough to fully melt into rain.
With a shallow melting layer we could see ice pellets or a
rain/snow mix from Marshall to McGrath until the main front
arrives Monday night. In the first 3 days there is much better
confidence on seeing ice accumulations in the Southwest Interior
and parts of Y-K Delta. However, the extended forecast period
starting monday night, begins to see some major model
discrepancies. Those will be discussed in the Extended Forecast
Section.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Behind the arctic cold front that sets up in the Western Interior
Monday, there is a very strong area of high pressure in Eastern
Siberia. This area of high pressure is the cause of much of the
model discrepancy this morning. The GFS ensemble and ECMWF
ensemble are producing two different solutions that would impact
what we would see here in Northern Alaska. The GFS solution has
the low that will move towards the Aleutian Islands, but stay
south of them. This would limit how much moisture and warm air can
make it into the Interior due to high pressure blocking it. The
ECMWF solution on the other hand is trying to bring the low center
into Bristol Bay. This would be a much wetter and warmer
solution. The Canadian ensemble was consistently with the ECMWF
solution the past couple of day, but that has changed as there has
not been a lot of run-to-run model agreement. With inconsistency
between the model suites, it is hard to build confidence on
precipitation types, amounts, and temperatures come early next
week and into mid week. As we move towards the end of the week
however, there is good agreement between the ensembles that we
will be getting colder.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-809-812-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Dennis

669
FXAK67 PAJK 280640
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
940 PM AKST Thu Nov 27 2025

.UPDATE...for the 06z TAF product... the north-south orientation
frontal band over the east central gulf is spreading snow or
rain-snow mix into the the Yakutat area, has begun snow there.
LIght snow will likely spread into the northern third with
flurries to the north central. Otherwise not many other changes to
the aviation section this evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 356 pm Thu 27 Nov...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Points:
- Northerly outflow winds will continue into tonight before
diminishing late.

- A front moves over the far northern gulf bringing light to
moderate precipitation to Yakutat tonight into tomorrow.

- A stronger system arrives late Saturday into Sunday bringing
widespread precipitation and gale force winds to the gulf.

SHORT TERM...
Temperatures have remained cool across the panhandle, especially
over the north due to northerly outflow winds continuing. Because of
this outflow, forecasted winds have been increased across the
northern panhandle into this evening, before diminishing late
tonight. Areas of strong breezes to near gales (25 to 30 kts) have
continued over the northern inner channels with the strongest winds
over Cross Sound, near Point Couverden, and along Stephens Passage.
Northerly winds in Skagway and near White Pass will remain stronger
into tonight with gusts to 35 mph.

Tonight, a front moves over the far northern gulf increasing
precipitation chances for Yakutat into Friday. This front will bring
light to moderate precipitation over Yakutat and increased cloud
cover across the panhandle. Precipitation over Yakutat is highly
likely to start as snow tonight transitioning to rain tomorrow
morning due to increasing temperatures with the front. There is a
chance that snow or a rain/snow mix stays over the area longer if
easterly winds keep temperatures cooler for slightly longer.
Although no accumulating precipitation is anticipated over other
areas of the panhandle, times of flurries or light sprinkles are
possible tonight into Friday morning.

As this front diminishes Friday night, winds greatly decrease across
the area with clearing skies over the central to southern panhandle.
This once again allows for temperatures to decrease ahead of a
larger system that arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

LONG TERM...
In the wake of a weak warm front which largely fell
apart as it tried to move through the panhandle, drier weather
lingers through Saturday afternoon, barring a few chances of
showers for the southern panhandle and Yakutat.

By Saturday night the drier weather is brought to a halt as a
warm front advances north across the panhandle, beginning to move
over the area late Friday night, and overrunning SE AK on Sunday.
It remains a challenge to forecast just how quickly warm air will
advect into the panhandle with this system, given its distance
from the parent low. Some changes have been made to the previous
forecast, as confidence has grown in a more South to North
trajectory for this system, which could result in better
conditions for accumulating snow across the northern panhandle.
While the airmass already in place will be marginal at best, snow
melt cooling could prove sufficient to bring snow accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches for Haines and Skagway on Sunday, with the
possibility of more snow for their highways respectively.
Precipitation across the Icy Strait Corridor looks to start out as
snow before transitioning to a mix then rain. This could allow for
some likely accumulations across this area but it would likely be
limited to a couple of inches at best. By Sunday afternoon, warm
air advection will have forced a changeover to rain by Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday evening, rising snow levels will have
resulted in a transition to rain for most locations except the
Klondike, where snow may linger until early Monday morning. Some
minor changes were made to slightly increase QPF amounts for this
system, with up to 2 inches in 24 hours expected along the NE Gulf
coast with the heaviest rates of between 0.4 and 0.6 inches in 6
hours expected Sunday evening into Sunday night. The rest of the
panhandle is expected to see between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of QPF.

Onshore flow will keep chances of rain in the forecast on Monday.
There is a potential for a lull on Tuesday, as low level ridging
briefly rebuilds. Better chances of precipitation return to the
forecast by Wednesday as SE AK finds itself on the NE flank of a
building trough anchored across the Bering and the western Gulf,
and through the end of the week. Ensembles continue to show some
disagreement regarding the particular details especially as the
low tries to move to the North and East. Forecast confidence
remains on the lower end due to this spread.

AVIATION.../through Friday afternoon/...
Generally VFR flight conditions expected across the panhandle
through the period with increasing high to mid clouds AOA 5kft.
However, for Yakutat, VFR VIS and CIGs this evening will lower
overnight into the day Friday, becoming MVFR to possibly IFR with a
mix of rain/snow expected. Winds will generally be less than 10kts
for the period, however, winds this 10 to 15 kts are expected for
Haines and Skagway with higher gusts for Skagway, decreasing
tonight. Aside for Yakutat, no major vis issues for the period. LLWS
looks to develop for Yakutat late tonight with winds 2kt increasing
to around 30kt from the southeast.

MARINE...

OUTSIDE WATERS: Gulf winds have remained elevated across the
central and northern gulf through Thursday, and will remain
elevated through Thursday night as a system moves through, with
gales out of the SE expected across the northern Gulf. Through the
day on Friday, these winds will diminish as the system departs,
with 15-25 kt winds expected across the outer coastal waters by
Friday night, and lasting through the first half Saturday. The
strongest of these winds will remain anchored over the northern
Gulf. By Saturday night, winds will be increasing again as a front
moves through, and by Sunday winds 40 kt winds are expected for
areas north of Cape Ommaney. Waveheights of 10-14 ft Friday night
diminish to 5 to 8 ft by late Friday night, and then increase back
to 10-14 ft by Sunday morning.

INSIDE WATERS: Cold air outflow diminishes through Thursday night,
with winds will be weakening as the pressure gradient becomes more
parallel to the panhandle, with winds dropping to 5 - 15 kt.
Waveheights will diminish to 2-3 ft Friday into Saturday. Winds will
ramp up once more Sunday as a gale force front arrives in the
panhandle, reaching 20-30 kt for the inner channels, alongside
elevated waveheights.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-644-651-663-664-671.

&&

$$
UPDATE...Bezenek
SHORT TERM...EAB/LC
LONG TERM...GFS/SF
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GFS



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