Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

800
FXAK68 PAFC 010033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A beautiful day is under way across Southcentral Alaska to close out
the coldest March in the 73 year period of record for Anchorage, and
likely many other locations across the area. In fact, much of the
Anchorage Bowl breached the freezing mark (32 Fahrenheit)
yesterday for the first time since February 6th.

Meteorlogically-quiet, dry weather with temperatures finally near
climatological averages will prevail through the week as surface
high pressure remains in place. This will be the case for today
(Tuesday) as well... GOES Water Vapor imagery shows a subtle
shortwave trough embedded within northwest flow aloft dropping
down into Southcentral from the Interior of Alaska. Gap winds from
`inland` towards the Gulf of Alaska will intensify later today as
this aforementioned trough shortwave aloft helps induce a surface
trough across the northern Gulf. Winds won`t be anything too out
of the ordinary, but we do anticipate increases to small craft
(>23kt) in the favored locations (Valdez Narrows, Copper River
Delta) as a result of feature.

Attention for the area turns to an area of low pressure that`s
expected to move into the Gulf Wednesday Night into Thursday. The
northern periphery of the front and gusty easterly winds will
approach and likely affect Kodiak Island, including Kodiak City, on
Thursday. Recent model trends have shifted the low ever so slightly
south, which is more favorable for a lighter snow event, with rain
mixed in at times, particularly during late afternoon thanks to
solar heating. Should any more shifts south occur in the trek of
this low, little to no precipitation may fall.

Otherwise, no noteworthy weather is expected to close out the week
on Friday. A low will anchor itself across Southwest Alaska, with
some models suggesting a stronger low developing on the frontal
triple point of the aforementioned Gulf low. Weather Friday night
into the weekend will likely be a result of how these features
interact... but there`s reason to believe we can be looking at
precipitation entering the chat again come Saturday or Sunday. Temps
normal. Enjoy the sunshine.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...


The front of a North Pacific low continues across the southern
Bering, bringing precipitation to the Pribilofs and Aleutian
Islands from Adak to Akutan. The low`s center will remain south of
the Aleutians as it continues eastward into the Gulf on Thursday.
Meanwhile, snow is expected for Unalaska and Akutan, however,
warm Pacific air will move northward and lift snow levels on
Wednesday, changing the precipitation to rain. The low will then
take a more southeastward track and its front will dissipate as it
passes south of Sand Point resulting in scattered to isolated
rain/snow showers into the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning. Snow accumulation just over one inch may
be possible through Wednesday morning for Unalaska, Akutan, and
the western Alaska Peninsula. High end small craft winds with
widespread gale- force gusts along the front are expected before
the front begins to weaken Wednesday. Northerly winds return
Thursday across the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.


Across the Southwest mainland, weak ridging from the north,
combined with clearing skies and calm winds, may cause patchy fog
development overnight for areas of the Kuskokwim Delta and the
greater Bristol Bay region. Dry and mostly clear conditions
expected through Thursday afternoon.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

By Saturday, the remnants of a triple point low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska may continue spreading cloud cover back over
Southcentral Alaska, including some light showers over the coast.
Easterly onshore flow along the northern Gulf coast will likely
promote showers for coastal communities. Out west, a large ridge
over the central Bering sea will continue to mute weather activity
for much of the region, however a low pressure system to the west
will be on approach. Namely, by Saturday morning a low pressure
system will approach the westernmost Aleutians spreading a front
ahead of the low center. By Sunday morning, the ridge may shift
slowly into the eastern Bering, allowing the low in the western
Bering to spread, but the strength of the low may have diminished
significantly by then. By Sunday afternoon, a north Pacific low
may approach the northern Gulf, but confidence on placement and
timing of this system is low and strength of the potential system
is relatively weak. By Monday morning the low in the Gulf may
deepen, intensifying its presence in the Gulf lending towards a
pattern shift for Southcentral Alaska towards wetter and cloudier
conditions. This is expected to continue through Tuesday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$

920
FXAK69 PAFG 312229
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally benign conditions are expected across most of Northern
Alaska through late this week. Gradually colder temperatures with
highs falling into the low single digits by Thursday are expected
on the North Slope, with warmer temperatures in the 20s and 30s
expected through late this week south of the Brooks Range. From
Wednesday into the weekend, winds will increase on the West Coast,
across Interior summits/elevated areas, and on the Arctic Coast.
Some blowing snow is possible. Light snow showers will be possible
in the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but
accumulations are likely to remain low. The Chukchi Sea coast and
the Western Interior could see up to 2 to 3 inches of accumulation
from Wednesday night through Sunday morning. Next week will see
high temperatures on the North Slope rise back into the teens or
warmer, with temperatures mostly in the upper 20s and 30s south of
the Brooks Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures will be slightly cooler through Wednesday with
increasing cloud cover. High temperatures will range between
about 20F and 32F.

- The next few days could see light snow showers in the White
Mountains and Fortymile Country. These showers are expected to
be light with little accumulation. Interior valleys will mostly
be cloudy and dry.

- Northeast winds will increase Thursday, with the strongest winds
along the Dalton Highway Summits and the south slopes of the
Eastern Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mild temperatures will continue over the next several days with
highs from 20F to around 32F.

- Snow chances will return over the northern portions of the West
Coast, in and NW of Kotzebue. This system will slowly progress
south across the Western Interior over the next few days,
bringing more chances for snow. Snowfall totals will range could
be as high as around 2 to 3 inches.

- North winds along the West Coast will increase Wednesday night.
The highest winds will be in the westernmost areas, especially
through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the North Slope.
Light snow will be possible along the Chukchi Sea Coast and
Western Brooks Range from this afternoon into Wednesday with up
to 2" of snow possible.

- Temperatures will be on a gradual cooling trend through Thursday,
with daytime temperatures around zero. Areas along the Brooks
Range can expect temperatures to remain in the teens above zero.

- East to northeast winds will increase Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing another chance for some blowing snow to the
Lisburne Peninsula and NE Arctic Coast.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Generally benign weather continues across Northern Alaska. Highs
south of the Brooks Range will be in the 20s and 30s today and
tomorrow. A trough/warm front in the Central and Eastern Interior
will tilt the balance more toward 30s than 20s from Thursday
onward, with many areas rising above freezing. More substantive
cooling is likely on the North Slope; highs will fall from the
single digits and teens above zero today (20s and 30s on the
Western Arctic Coast) into the low single digits by Thursday
(with teens out west).

Spotty light snow showers are possible today and tomorrow across
the Southern and Western Interior and the Chukchi Sea coast with
cloud cover across the area. Any snow accumulations are likely to
be limited. From Wednesday night through late this week, a low
moving out of the Arctic will track along the West Coast, bringing
more substantive snowfall to the Western Interior. Up to about
two to three inches of total accumulation will be possible through
the weekend, especially for the Lower Yukon Valley area. By late
Wednesday into Thursday, on the northwest side of this low, north
to northeast winds will pick up across the Bering Strait and
western Arctic Coast. Winds could gust up to 35 mph. Similarly
strong east to northeast winds will likewise pick up in the higher
elevation areas of the Interior and the Brooks Range Thursday.
Thursday evening into Friday, easterly winds will pick up on the
eastern Arctic coast and could gust as high as about 35 mph near
Kaktovik.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
By Saturday morning into Sunday, winds will diminish across the
Arctic Coast and across the higher elevations of the Interior.
Light snow showers will continue each day in the higher elevations
of the White Mountains, Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country, but
valleys should remain mostly dry. Winds across the Interior appear
relatively light in valley locations to start next week but could
increase across higher elevations with northeast flow. Temperatures
during this time frame are likely to continue a trend of highs in
the upper 20s to mid 30s south of the Brooks Range and in the
teens north of the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$

DS

136
FXAK67 PAJK 010655 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1055 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.EVENING, AVIATION, AND LONG TERM UPDATE...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening as the gale
force low departs southward into the N Pac. With clearing skies
across the area and overland winds diminishing, nudged down
minimum temperatures overnight to match ongoing obs and added
patchy fog across portions of the N Panhandle through late tonight
into early Wednesday morning, otherwise forecast remains on track.

For the long term update, the pattern this weekend into Monday
remains on track, with a continuous warming lower-level warming
trend favoring mostly, if not all, rain across the panhandle from
early Friday morning through Sunday. Rainfall will be minimal,
with high confidence of less than an inch, due to weak upper-level
forcing and seasonally average precipitable water with the frontal
passage. Winds are also trending downward, with minimal impacts
mostly confined to the southern panhandle coastal waters. Another
weak low moves onshore Monday in the southern region, bringing
more light precipitation throughout the day.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Thursday/
VFR conditions continue across the panhandle this evening as off
shore flow takes hold. Potential for patchy freezing fog develop
along the Icy Strait corridor TAF sites, including Juneau, with
calm winds, clearing skies, and small T/Td depression. Main
forecast challenge will be any freezing fog that does develop
potentially frosting out into Wednesday morning. Outside of
isolated fog development, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period under mostly clear skies. Overland winds will remain
largely 10kts or less through the overnight period, increasing to
10 to 15kts through Wednesday afternoon once more, with gusts up
to 25kts possible for Haines and Skagway.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 PM AKDT Tue Mar 31 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Gale force system in the far southern gulf will exit the area
through Tuesday evening, leading to generally diminishing wind
and seas across the region.

- Wednesday is expected to be a break day with more seasonable
temperatures: highs in the lower to upper 40s across the
panhandle.

SHORT TERM...
The band of precipitation that pushed into the panhandle Tuesday
morning has spent itself and skies have quickly begun to clear
through the northern panhandle. As the gale force low continues to
retreat to the southeast and weaken, conditions will improve
across the board with skies gradually clearing from north to south
overnight Tuesday and through Wednesday. An approaching ridge
will bring light northerly winds over the eastern gulf and help to
further dry out any remaining clouds later Wednesday, while also
helping to limit any surface winds along the inner channels. The
exception will be any localized sea breezes that could develop
Wednesday due to daytime heating.

With the clearing skies and temperatures reaching the low 40s for
most of the northern panhandle, some fog potential is expected
heading into early Wednesday morning due to snowmelt during the
day and the subsequent radiational cooling overnight. However, any
fog that does develop is not expected to be dense and should be
relatively short lived due to lack of onshore flow or further
moisture reinforcement in the lower levels. As a result, any fog
is also expected to be localized to communities and not
necessarily spread into marine areas excessively.

Temperatures Wednesday are expected to be more seasonable with
highs in the low to mid 40s across the region, with overnight lows
ranging from around freezing in the south to the mid to low 20s up
north. Overall a fresh taste of mild spring for the middle of the
week, despite the snowpack still prevalent at or near sea level
for many communities. For more on the next system moving into the
gulf later in the week, see the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/ The end of the week into
the weekend will bring more typical southeast springtime weather
with a sub- gale force low and front to quickly advance into the
Gulf of Alaska through Thursday. In response to this low,
anticipate cloud cover to increase ahead of the front Thursday
morning, with widespread precipitation expected late Thursday into
Friday. Now the main question is precipitation type: rain or
snow? The source of this low is the more typical Aleutian storm
track, with warmer air aloft than what we have previously seen the
last few weeks with our storm cycles. While this warm air
certainly suggests that rain will be the dominant precip type, the
biggest question is how weak outflow winds will continue keep
protected interior sections of southeast cooler at the surface.
However, we have spring sunshine and longer days to help with
warming. Considering this, the current forecast has a quick hit of
wet/heavy snow for the region Thursday night and a transition to
rain Friday, with the northern Panhandle transitioning later
Friday morning. Snow levels will likely increase to above 1000 ft
for much of the Panhandle by Friday afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 40s.

One item of note is that while Thursdays low looks to remain
below gale force for much of the eastern Gulf, mariners operating
along the coast should be vigilant for another round of elevated
seas Friday into the weekend.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: Gale force winds will continue to trend downward
as the low in the southern gulf continues weakening and moving
south and east towards Haida Gwaii. Northeast to east winds will
becoming more northerly during this time as well. Seas associated
with this system are still ranging from 12-15 ft from Cape Spencer
down to Dixon Entrance as of this forecast discussion. Winds and
seas continue to diminish and become relatively benign on
Wednesday before increasing again as another low and front swing
through the Gulf late in the week.

Inside Waters: Moderate winds through the inner channels today as
northerly/easterly outflow strengthened slightly with the closest
approach of the low. South to southeast winds across the
central/southern inner channels will continue to diminish and
eventually switch northerly as the low continues to dive southeast
towards Haida Gwaii and the BC coast. the gale force low in the
central Gulf approaches. Mild outflow conditions continue across
the north tonight into early Wednesday. Winds across the inner
channels will diminish through the day Wednesday as the gradient
weakens with the low pushing further away. Winds pick up from the
south on Thursday with the approach of the next low and front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AP/BAS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ

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