Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

733
FXAK68 PAFC 101316 AAA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.Update...

Key Messages:

Winter Weather Advisory for Broad Pass through Sunday Morning for
4 to 12 inches of snow. Steady snow this morning may mix with rain
and taper off for a time this afternoon before a second round of
snow this evening through Sunday morning. Snow amounts will be
highly dependent on temperatures with daytime highs in the lower
to mid 30s.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

The forecast is on track this morning as a strong occluded front
is pushing east from the western Gulf. South to southwesterly
flow aloft is driving ample moisture from the North Pacific out
ahead of the front and over Southcentral Alaska. The heaviest
precipitation is falling along the coast and across areas favored
by upslope flow, such as northern and eastern portions of the
Susitna Valley from Hatcher Pass to Broad Pass. A strong pressure
gradient between a surface ridge over the eastern Gulf and deep
low pressure in the Bering has also resulted in gusty winds for
many locations and has also allowed for the development of strong
southeasterly gap winds through Turnagain Arm and the Knik River
Valley, where gusts have peaked around 40 mph overnight.

Light rain across the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai overnight
has tapered off a bit this morning as weak southeasterly flow
aloft and exiting shortwave have allowed for some downsloping.
While the southeasterly flow will continue to increase through the
morning and early afternoon hours, upper-level waves (i.e.
advecting vorticity lobes) will allow for periods of rain
throughout the day.

Snow levels today will rise from around 2,000 ft near the Alaska
Range and 2,800 ft farther south to around 2,600 ft and 3,200 ft,
respectively, through the day. This will allow snow falling
through mountain passes this morning to at least mix with rain for
a time this afternoon before snow levels fall and precipitation
changes back to snow tonight through Sunday morning.

There remains high confidence in light accumulations expected at
the passes (2-4" lower Broad Pass, 3-6" top of Broad Pass, 4-7"
Thompson Pass). Confidence is also high (80-90 percent) for higher
elevations of Hatcher Pass (> 3,000 ft)to see 6-12 inches of snow
with this system (with totals closer to 2 feet above 4,000 ft).
For lower elevations, temperatures will continue to warm
throughout the weekend as this system moves through.

Regarding precipitation amounts, the heaviest and most persistent
precipitation is expected to be along the northern Gulf Coast
(widespread 2-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with some locally
higher amounts possible) and the western Alaska Range to the
northern Susitna Valley (1-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with
some locally higher amounts possible). Downsloping winds will
result in lower total precipitation amounts for the western Kenai,
Anchorage, lower Mat-Su Valleys, and the Copper River Basin.

Regarding winds, high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph through
Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 45 mph and 40
mph, respectively, for Knik River and Copper River Valleys.
Southerly small-craft force winds persist through the Gulf on
Saturday, with some gales possible in the southern portion of Cook
Inlet.

By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward
along the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak
as the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again,
there is good model agreement that this new feature and its front
then drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the
development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is
high confidence (80-90 percent) that this solution will further
enhance SE gap winds through typical locations; however, with the
low south of the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up
with moderate confidence (50-60 percent) that the Turnagain Arm
jet bends south and away from Anchorage by Saturday evening.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to
lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the
northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly
gale-force winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for
across Southcentral once the front moves through, with the
Turnagain Arm wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet
decreasing Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of
downsloping also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai
Peninsula. This will allow precipitation to fill in across the
Cook Inlet and Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and
gusty southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may
also make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin
Sunday morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly
dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and
rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday
across coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su
Valleys, and along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the
northern Gulf Coast and snow showers over the coastal mountains
and Hatcher Pass. High confidence (>90%) of additional snow
accumulations for the passes late Sunday into Monday.

-TM/PA

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday through Monday)...

The forecast remains very much on track as the west quiets down
for now. A large and occluded Bering low continues to spin west of
Saint Matthew Island this morning. This low will progressively
fill and weaken as it generally moves northeastward towards the
Norton Sound through the end of the short term forecast period.
Currently, the 500 mb flow is characterized by broad, neutrally
tilted troughing over the Bering, Aleutians, and North Pacific
with several weak shortwaves rounding the base of the trough. This
will coincide with increased shower potential as these waves pass
overhead. The first shortwave is now located over the Central
Aleutians, closely followed by a second wave diving a bit farther
south over the North Pacific. Both of these features are progged
to move northeastward towards the Bristol Bay and Alaska Peninsula
areas by this evening, where rain chances have been increased for
this morning`s forecast package. There is some spread in the
models on the exact track of the second upper wave, and some of
the guidance has it sliding south of the Alaska Peninsula and more
on track to move over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning.

Weakening cyclonic flow aloft Sunday afternoon (depicted as 500
mb geo-potential height rises as the upper level low continues to
lose steam as it moves over the Norton Sound) will result in
overall decreases in chances of precipitation, but showers will
remain moving west to east across the Bering/Aleutians and into
Southwest Alaska. By Sunday afternoon, yet another wave embedded
within the mean 500 mb flow will drive over or just south of the
Aleutian Chain. A much more robust shortwave nears the Western
Aleutians late Monday as troughing breaks down across/over the
region. Have introduced small craft winds for the Western
Aleutians starting late Monday through Tuesday morning. The signal
in the models is that this wave amplifies, but digs well south
thereafter over the North Pacific. Southwest Alaska slowly trends
cooler through the end of the short term, with overnight lows
dropping to near freezing Tuesday morning area wide.

-AM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Forecast uncertainty in the long range remains high with models
struggling to resolve the eventual progression of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Nolo. Models do agree that broad troughing over the
Bering early next week will become more organized and shift from
the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the latter
half of next week. Nolo is expected to be picked up by this trough
in some form or fashion, potentially phasing or being absorbed by
additional wave energy lifting across the North Pacific.
Deterministic guidance takes brings a strong low into the Alaska
Peninsula or western Gulf by midweek. Regardless of the various
model differences, strong winds (including gales to even storm
force winds) are likely next week with rain chances also
increasing significantly from the Alaska Peninsula into much of
the Gulf of Alaska and Gulf coast. The GFS remains the strongest
solution at this time, bringing gales and storm force
southeasterly winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island by
late Wednesday, with equally northerly winds on the backside of
the low spreading into the Eastern Aleutians. Of note, the GFS
brings an even stronger low into the Gulf by Thursday with a
strong barrier jet setting up along the Gulf coast into Friday.

BL

AVIATION...

PANC... Confidence is high that southeasterly winds will gust up
to 30 to 35 kt through early afternoon. Confidence is lower
regarding when winds will begin to diminish; model solutions
range from as early as 00Z to as late as 06Z. The TAF leans
towards the majority consensus among the models, and with gusty
winds lingering through about 06Z. Southeasterly winds aloft will
remain strong, however, so there will likely be a period of LLWS
when surface winds weaken.

Otherwise, vicinity showers (30 to 50 percent chance of showers
moving over the terminal) will become more frequent (60 to 80
percent chance) beginning around 03Z. Accordingly, ceilings and
visibility will likely drop to MVFR by around 06Z to 09Z.


&&

$$

740
FXAK69 PAFG 101324
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
524 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- A High Wind Warning is out for the Alaska Range through Sunday
morning with strong southerly winds peaking around 60 to 70
mph.

- Snow is likely in the AK Range with 8 inches possible along
the Parks and Richardson Highways this weekend. The bulk of it
occurs through Saturday night south of Denali Park and Sunday
south of Trims Camp.

- A brief period of warming is expected with high temperatures
in the Interior expecting to reach the upper 40s on Saturday.

- Rain showers are likely over the Eastern Interior Sunday,
with higher terrain in the area likely seeing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Water levels in the Eastern Norton Sound are expected to stay
high through the weekend and gradually decrease into early
next week.

- Showers and breezy conditions remain across Western Alaska
through early next week.

- In the extended forecast, another low pressure system may
bring additional rain and winds to the West Coast later next
week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to persist
throughout the weekend over most of the Arctic Plains
resulting in very light accumulations.

- Strong southerly winds through the Brooks Range are expected
to gust 25 to 35 mph through Sunday morning.

- A cooling trend is imminent, with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s today likely to drop into the low to mid 20s by
mid next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather persists over Northern Alaska as the front from
a Bering Sea low continues to progress into the Interior today.
The West Coast will remain active with gusty winds and rain
showers while most of the precipitation moving in the Interior
dries out. In the southern AK Range, expect snow of varying
intensity through the weekend. The Brooks Range will also get a
little bit of snow this weekend while the North Slope remains
mostly dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The story is being told at 500mb where a broad upper level low
is stationed west of St. Lawrence Island at around 510
decameters and weakening. To the east, there is a departing
ridge over the Interior with southerly flow over the AK Range
and Brooks Range making the Interior and North Slope mainly dry.
The southern slopes of these ranges will continue to see
persistent moist southerly flow which keeps precipitation
chances going through the weekend. The heaviest precipitation
looks to be in the AK Range where a shortwave rounds the base of
the upper level trough through the Gulf of Alaska, along the
coast and finally into the southern Yukon by Sunday afternoon.
Between now and then, expect persistent chances for snow of
varying intensity. There is a slight chance for snow and rain
showers in the Central Interior Sunday afternoon as this energy
moves from southwest to northeast. One thing being monitored is
the precipitation types in the southern AK Range, particularly
around the Parks and Richardson Highways where there is a slight
chance for mixed precipitation. Warm air advection will likely
encroach upon the southern AK Range passes, but with
precipitation being continuous, wet bulb temperatures likely
remain below freezing throughout the column resulting in a
mainly snow event. If there were to be any mixed precipitation,
it will occur this morning and afternoon, especially near
Cantwell, but there is still a chance south of Trims Camp.
Temperatures then quickly drop below freezing this evening and
tonight. If there is any rain, it will likely refreeze tonight.
Travel will be difficult regardless. Otherwise, wind near Antler
Creek and north of Trims Camp will remain gusty through
Saturday night, then weaken Sunday morning.

The upper level low over the Bering will continue to progress
east, nearly over St. Lawrence Island by Monday as it weakens.
This prolongs shower chances in Western Alaska through early
next week, and mainly dry conditions in the Central/Eastern
Interior. The southern slopes of the Brooks Range keeps upslope
flow allowing for snow showers to continue into early next week.
Finally, on the North Slope it will be dry through Sunday then
snow chances blossom, especially along the Chukchi Sea Coast on
Monday. This will be caused by an upper low in the Arctic
dropping a front south which stretches apart as the remnant
energy from the Bering Sea low collides with it. There will be a
convergence zone near the Arctic Coast which allows snow to
begin on Monday with periods of light snow enduring through
early next week.

Temperatures will be on a downward trend overall after today. We
will be noticing 850mb temperatures dropping by nearly 1-2C
across Northern AK each day through early next week. This allows
for surface temperatures to drop as well. By the time we get to
Tuesday, most spots will have high temperatures back in the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The middle of next week looks to be fairly mundane. Northern AK
likely has some lingering rain and snow showers around, but
nothing too concerning and with only minimal accumulations.
Thursday, a transient ridge does try to move through from the
south, giving way to mixed sun and clouds over most of the area.
This does change towards the end of the week with a Gulf of
Alaska low moving moving towards South-Central bringing clouds
and some light snow to the Interior by Friday. Most of the
moisture from this will be cut-off and pushed into Canada by the
weekend as a trough digs in from the Arctic bringing colder
temperatures.

Overall, the weather looks fairly quiet for most of next week
with mostly below normal temperatures expected and light areas
of snow or rain. No significant weather is expected.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
The Bering Sea low continues to weaken but water levels remain
higher than normal through early next week. Each high tide,
from the Chukchi Sea Coast to Hooper Bay, will be around 1 to 3
feet above the normal high tide line through Monday afternoon.
This means erosion remains a possibility through then. We are
not expecting any flooding to occur.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected.

&&


.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ847.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ848.
High Wind Warning until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM AKDT
Sunday for AKZ850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ802-
810.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ803-
807-851>854.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-
806.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT this
afternoon for PKZ808-809-855-856.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ816.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ850.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Srinivasan
SYNOPSIS.......Bianco
SHORT TERM.....Bianco
LONG TERM......Bianco
COASTAL........Bianco
HYDROLOGY......Bianco

619
FXAK67 PAJK 101228
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
428 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant weather for Saturday with mainly sunny and dry
conditions, along with lighter winds.

- Precipitation potentially moving back into the northeastern gulf
coast as early as Saturday night and for the rest of the
panhandle as soon as Sunday.

- Confidence increasing for a larger, impactful system to move
into the Gulf and impact SEAK mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...A pleasant day in store
with ridge of high pressure moving over the panhandle today.
After a cold start to the morning with lows in the high 20s to 30s,
expect mainly sunny skies and lighter winds through the
afternoon. On the backside of the ridge, increasing clouds this
evening ahead of the next front. Rain will build into the NE Gulf
Coast by late evening as the front approaches, then pushing
southeast across the panhandle on Sunday into Sunday night. A low
could develop along the front later Sunday night and push into
Dixon Entrance and enhance rain across the southern panhandle.
Some moderate to heavy rain is possible, mainly along the NE Gulf
Coast and into northern panhandle, but rain amounts have been
lowered slightly as the stream of deeper moisture ahead of the
front looks to be limited. Rain total through Sunday night 1-1.5"
for Yakutat. For the panhandle around 0.25-0.75" of rain
possible, with the higher amounts along Icy Strait Corridor. With
the drier, colder airmass in place ahead of the front, snow
levels could initially be low enough over the northern highways
(1.5-2.5kft) late tonight into Sunday morning for snow to mix in
as the rain begins near White Pass and the upper reaches of the
Haines Highway, but no accumulation expected. Any snow will
quickly transition to all rain by late morning as snow levels
quickly rebound. Gusty southerly winds expected for Sunday
afternoon/evening, especially across the northern panhandle.
Advisory level wind gusts greater than 40 mph are possible for
Skagway and Klondike Highway. High temps today in the upper 40s to
lower 50s across the north, with mid to upper 50s possible across
the south. Cooler for Sunday with highs in the upper 40s north to
lower 50s south.

.LONG TERM.../Monday to Friday/...A series of disturbances will
follow behind the front on Sunday, keeping rain in the forecast
Monday through early week. A low looks to swing up from the south
into the Haida Gwaii area late Monday through the day Tuesday,
bringing some elevated winds into the southern panhandle alongside
light to moderate rain. This low looks to stay southward, not
pushing as far up into the panhandle as it clips the southern
coast, though some weak disturbances will continue to bring some
rain to the northern panhandle / NE Gulf coast early through
midweek. Not expecting much overall for this quick moving low,
with 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 24 hrs expected for the southern
panhandle, and around 0.6 inches or less for areas further
northward impacted by the disturbances pushing across the Gulf.

Still looking ahead to the next, larger system that is expected
to develop in the western Gulf midweek. Uncertainty remains in the
forecast with it being further ahead in time, looking to not
impact the panhandle until Thursday, with the setup / location of
the low center and its strength still being quite different
across guidance. Updates will be made as the system gets closer in
time and as confidence grows in the expected rain and wind
impacts. Generally expecting two solutions: a stronger low staying
further west and not impacting the panhandle until later Thursday
to Friday, and a low impacting the panhandle sooner Thursday but
with a bit weaker of a setup. Still overall looking to bring some
elevated winds and rainfall to the area.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/...Across the panhandle this
morning, flight conditions remain predominantly VFR. Though, some
sites could possibly see patchy fog, PAPG being one such case,
with brief observed reductions in CIGs to 200 ft and 3 SM VSBY.

Otherwise, a frontal system moving from northwest to southeast
will begin deteriorating conditions near PAYA this afternoon,
around 03Z. Most other TAF sites will remain VFR with CIGs AoA
3500 ft through Sunday morning, though high clouds will advance
ahead of the front and gradually lower overnight. Conditions are
expected to worsen further by late Sunday morning into midday
along the northern Gulf Coast and near Icy Strait.

Calm to light winds will persist through most of the day before
increasing tonight as the front nears. PAGY being the main
exception, where winds will stay elevated at 10 to 15 kts and may
become gusty by this afternoon. Winds begin to shift generally
southerly late tomorrow ahead of the front, though no significant
LLWS concerns are anticipated with this frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Relatively benign marine conditions today with
high pressure ridge moving over the waters into the panhandle. On
the backside of the ridge, southerlies will begin to pick up this
afternoon ahead of an approaching gale force front. The front will
transit the waters west to east late tonight into Sunday with a
wide swath of S to SEly 25-35kt along the coastal waters. Gales
are expected for Icy Cape to Cape Suckling and are possible down
to the Fairweather Grounds. Seas 4 to 6 ft will build 10 to 14+
feet with the frontal passage. Improving marine conditions behind
the front Sunday night, with winds becoming gentle and seas
becoming 5 to 7 ft early next week. Increasing winds and seas by
midweek ahead of a potential storm force low/front lifting into
the Gulf and coastal waters by late week.

Inside Waters: Light northerlies this morning as ridge of high
pressure move over the panhandle. As the ridge shifts east and the
next front approaches, winds will begin to turn southerly and
become gentle to moderate for northern channels this afternoon
and for the southern channels late tonight into Sunday morning.
Winds will become moderate to strong with the frontal passage,
with small craft advisory in effect for northern Lynn Canal on
Sunday. As the front shifts southeast Sunday night, winds will
diminish across the northern channels, but southerlies will pick
up and possibly become strong in Clarence Strait into Monday.
Otherwise, marine conditions will become relatively benign early
next week with winds becoming light to gentle. Increasing E-SEly
winds and seas by midweek ahead of a potential stronger low/front
impacting the region late next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...DS

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