Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

216
FXAK68 PAFC 250037
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Skies in Southcentral Alaska are clearing as the upper low in the
Gulf continues its slow progression eastward. Low temperatures
last night dropped to the 30s in East Anchorage and the Copper
River Basin due to drier air aloft which allowed for more
efficient radiational cooling. This dry slot has moved out, so low
temperatures are not expected to drop as much tonight and will
mostly be in the 40s.

A series of easterly waves will move across Southcentral over the
next few days, pulling warmer air from Interior Canada and
bringing a warming trend to the Mainland. Temperatures will climb
into the low 70`s for inland areas on Thursday. By Friday,
temperatures inland will reach into the mid-70`s with upper 60`s
to low 70`s for coastal areas, including Anchorage. Warming
temperatures and clearing skies will allow for increased
convection for inland areas. By Thursday, showers and a 10 to 20%
chance for isolated thunderstorms over the Talkeetna Mountains and
the Isabel and Mentasta Pass areas will arise. Isolated
thunderstorm chances (10 to 20%) extend to the Susitna Valley by
Friday. Convective potential decreases over the weekend as
westerly waves from a low in the Bering bring in cooler air. Winds
will be relatively light through the weekend. However, winds
around Kodiak Island will increase (20 to 25 mph) by Saturday in
response to the westerly waves.

KM/JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Friday)...

An upper-level ridge and accompanying thermal trough continue to
extend across the Kuskokwim Valley and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta this
afternoon. Daytime heating combined with modest instability will
support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with
the greatest coverage expected along a corridor extending from
near Bethel and Kasigluk northeastward through Aniak and toward
Holy Cross. Storm motions will generally carry activity
southwestward toward the coast through the evening before
weakening after sunset. A similar convective pattern is expected
again Thursday afternoon and evening.

By Friday, an upper-level shortwave and surface frontal system
lifting northeast from the Bering Sea will approach Southwest
Alaska. Increasing moisture and large-scale ascent ahead of the
front will support a more organized area of showers across the
region, with embedded thunderstorms possible where sufficient
instability develops. While confidence remains lower regarding the
exact placement of the heaviest precipitation, portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay could see
an increase in a shower activity as the system moves inland.

Across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, a broad upper-level low
remains the dominant weather feature as it lifts northward into
the southern Bering. Locally breezy southeast winds will persist
ahead of the accompanying frontal boundaries, particularly across
the eastern Aleutians (Dutch Harbor and Unalaska) and southern
Bering waters. Through Friday, the low gradually weakens while
shifting farther north, though unsettled conditions with
occasional rain showers will persist across much of the region.
Outside of the stronger wind corridors, areas of marine stratus
and fog will continue across portions of the central and eastern
Bering Thursday morning.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An unsettled weather pattern will persist across much of southern
Alaska through the extended forecast period as a series of weak
disturbances move northward from the Gulf of Alaska while broad
low pressure remains established over the Bering Sea. This pattern
will support periods of showers across much of Southcentral Alaska
beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week.

On Sunday, increasing moisture and several weak upper-level
shortwaves lifting north across the Gulf will promote scattered to
numerous showers across the Southcentral Interior, including the
Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley. Modest daytime heating may
allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
and evening hours, particularly across the Copper River Basin and
portions of the Susitna Valley where instability appears most
favorable. Elsewhere across Southcentral, cloud cover and cooler
marine influences should help limit thunderstorm development.

By Monday, energy associated with the Bering Sea low begins
shifting eastward into mainland Alaska. As a result, shower
activity is expected to become more widespread across
Southcentral, with periods of rain developing across portions of
the Kenai Peninsula, Susitna Valley, Copper River Basin, and
surrounding higher terrain. While rainfall amounts generally look
light to moderate, locally heavier showers will remain possible
beneath stronger convective cells.

Showery and unsettled conditions are expected to continue through
Tuesday as the upper-level pattern remains progressive and weak
disturbances continue moving through the region. Temperatures
should remain near seasonal normals, though persist cloud cover
and precipitation may keep daytime highs slightly cooler in areas
that experience more frequent rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms may
remain possible across the eastern Interior portions of
Southcentral, especially near the Copper River Basin during the
afternoon and evening hours.

By Wednesday, guidance suggests a stronger North Pacific system
moving into the Bering Sea may begin increasing southerly flow
across southern Alaska. This could lead to increasing moisture
transport into Southcentral and maintain chances for showers
across much of the region. Confidence in specific timing and
impacts remains lower this far out, but the overall signal favors
continued unsettled weather with periods of rain, extensive cloud
cover, and locally breezy conditions developing through favored
gap wind locations and along portions of the Gulf.

Father west, a stronger North Pacific low and associated front
will bring hazardous marine conditions to the western Aleutians
and western Bering early next week. Sustained southeasterly gale-
force winds with storm-force gusts remain possible, accompanied by
periods of moderate to heavy rain. These conditions are expected
to spread eastward through the Aleutian Chain, reaching Adak and
Atka Monday before advancing toward Unalaska and Nikolski by
Tuesday. Marine interests should continue monitoring later
forecasts as confidence in a period of impactful winds and
rainfall remains relatively high.

LM


&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will mostly persist. There is a chance for a
lower cloud deck to redevelop overnight and into the morning
hours tomorrow. Should this happen it could push ceilings into the
MVFR range. Any lower ceilings from Thursday morning should burn
off by late morning as this is not due to a large area of stratus
throughout Cook Inlet, but rather from residual low level moisture
locally that condenses as an inversion develops. Winds are
expected to remain mostly from a westerly direction at 10 kt or
less.

&&


$$

424
FXAK69 PAFG 242323 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 PM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Extended discussion added

.SYNOPSIS...
After a very active thunderstorm day in the Central and Eastern
Interior yesterday, we do expect drying from Fairbanks North Star
Borough east. A narrow front is set up from Kaktovik to Aniak with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected there today. The
thunderstorm footprint will remain similar tomorrow but there will
be a chance along the AlCan Border with subtle southeast flow. On
Friday, southeast flow extends into the Interior with isolated
storms expected across much of the Interior with the most robust
being in SW AK as a low in the Bering provides a front from the
southwest. These thunderstorms will be wet and provide locally
heavy rain, especially in the Brooks Range and Western Interior.
The North Slope will remain mostly dry other than a few showers
with a cooling trend as an arctic low brings a cold front from the
northwest. Otherwise temperatures remain largely in the 70s
across most of Northern Alaska with 50s and 60s along the coasts.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Showers and thunderstorms exiting to the west today, but remain
mostly from the Dalton Highway westward. A cool and mostly sunny
day from Fairbanks north and east.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms expected from Arctic Village
to Anaktuvuk Pass southward along the Dalton and towards Tanana.

- Tomorrow and Friday are a bit warmer, in the low to mid 70s,
isolated thunderstorms expected north/west of Fairbanks, as
well as near the AlCan Border tomorrow, spreading to the Central
Interior on Friday.

- This weekend comes with isolated to scattered storms ahead of a
cold front on Saturday, then the potential for heavy rain from
the Alaska Range to the Yukon River on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Red Flag Warning for the Kobuk and lower Koyukuk Valleys for
hot, dry and windy conditions through midnight tonight. Tomorrow
will be near critical levels once again.

- Scattered thunderstorms today through Friday afternoon from
Aniak to Ruby with isolated storms over the Nulato hills.

- High temps in the Interior will be in the mid 70s to low 80s
with 50s and 60s along the coast through Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances lessen and move east this weekend with
temperatures expected to drop into the 60s by Sunday. Heavy rain
possible in the Western AK Range and

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Dry and sunny today with warm temperatures. Scattered
thunderstorms likely over the Central and Eastern Brooks Range
with an isolated storm near Kaktovik today and tomorrow.

- An arctic front arrives Thursday afternoon and moves west to
east. A few showers are possible, but the most noticeable change
will be temps dropping into the 30s and 40s with areas of
stratus/fog in the plains and along the coast by Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An occluded low in the Gulf of Alaska which brought a front to
the Interior yesterday remains stationary in the Central Gulf. The
associated front is stationed from Kaktovik to SW AK with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and to the
west of it and mostly sunny skies to the east. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will be in the Central/Eastern Brooks Range
as well as the Western Interior. Thunderstorms in these locations
will continue tomorrow afternoon as the front remains stationary.
A high is stationed over the Lower Yukon Valley providing sunny
skies to most of the West Coast and NW Arctic Borough today and
tomorrow. This high will degrade this weekend as it gets squeezed
between a low in the Bering, Gulf and Arctic. North of this, the
aforementioned Arctic low is near the North Pole and dropping
south tomorrow. This will usher in a cold front Thursday
afternoon into Friday with colder weather behind it by Friday and
into this weekend on the North Slope. There may be a couple of
showers associated with the front, but the weather north of the
Brooks Range should remain mostly dry and chilly through the
weekend.

On the other side, the low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring weak
southeasterly flow towards the AlCan Border tomorrow, allowing for
a few thunderstorms to develop. These become a bit more numerous
on Friday and spread towards the Central Interior. The main
forcing mechanism is a fairly weak, broken down front from the
southeast. Saturday looks active again for thunderstorms,
especially north and east of Fairbanks. Then there is a potential
for a stronger shortwave trough to move over the Central/Eastern
Interior Saturday into Sunday with the possibility of heavy rain.
This will be spoken about in the extended discussion. The overall
trend for much of Northern Alaska will be cooler temperatures
with increased chances for precipitation this weekend.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Primary threat for critical fire weather conditions remains in
the far northwest interior, with a focus on the Upper Kobuk valley
south toward the lower Koyukuk. Here anticipate afternoon high
temperatures of upper 70s/lower 80s and RH near 20 to 25 percent
to continue through Thursday. The biggest question Wednesday
morning was forecasted wind speeds; as of 1230 AKDT a Red Flag
Warning was issued over concern with sustained winds of 15mph and
gusts to 20 to 25 mph into late Wednesday night. Thursday a dry
arctic front slides east across the north slope, bringing slightly
cooler temperatures to the Northwest Interior; however, one
impact could be northerly downslope winds off the western Brooks
Range Thursday evening, bringing continued low RH Friday.

For the Central Interior a moist frontal passage brought
substantial rainfall from Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with
some areas across the AK range reporting near 1 inch of rainfall
(The Farewell RAWS reported 1.44 inches of rain in 24 hours).
Currently, this front is stalled from the White mountains
southwest toward the Alaska Peninsula, serving as the catalyst for
extensive cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and continued
thunderstorms across the western Central Interior. Thursday into
Friday thunderstorms likely move in from the Alcan Border as a
weak shortwave moves over, bringing more thunderstorms to the
Fortymile Country and perhaps further north into the Yukon Flats.
By Saturday broad upper level troughing will move off the Bering
into the southwest, serving as the source for widespread daily
precip, cooler temperatures, and increased RH for the Central and
Eastern Interior.

The Northwest Interior looks to remain drier later into the
weekend with little relief in terms of widespread wetting rains.
Stay tuned.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AK Range drainage creeks/rivers are running high with some near
bankfull but there is no concern for flooding at this time. The
main concern is water over gravel bars, but high water levels
should recede gradually though the week. Otherwise, we are
monitoring the potential for heavy rain this weekend in the Alaska
Range and Interior, south of the Yukon. There are fairly high
probabilities for >1" of rain (25 to 50%) in the AK Range, Tanana
Valley and south of the Yukon River from Saturday into Sunday.
While there is uncertainty with the placement of the heaviest
rain, highest certainty is in the Alaska Range with lower
certainty towards Fairbanks and points west. We will be monitoring
this closely through the week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
As a large but relatively weak low moves into the eastern Bering
Sea Saturday, it will push a front into Western Alaska. As this
occurs, a second low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will draw
robust Pacific moisture into the Alaska Range and across the
Interior. At least half an inch to an inch of rain will be
possible across most of the southern Interior valleys and in the
Lower Yukon/YK Delta from Saturday morning through Monday morning,
with higher amounts possible in the higher terrain. In the
northern Interior, there will still be potential for at least
half an inch of rain, although amounts are expected to generally
tend lower than farther south. The highest certainty will be in
the Alaska Range and will gradually fall moving northward.
Depending on the movement of a shortwave trough moving northward
along the eastern border on Sunday, there could be ample
thunderstorm / lightning potential as well, with at least isolated
chances otherwise. By Monday evening, rain chances will spread
across the eastern North Slope. Moving into mid-next week, while
generally cooler weather is favored across the area with perhaps
another Arctic trough brushing the Arctic coast, models have
minimal agreement on the positioning of features.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ919-928.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco
Park - Fire Weather Discussion
Saltzman - Extended Discussion

518
FXAK67 PAJK 242342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
342 PM AKDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Convective rain showers moving in from the north Pacific will
impact the panhandle overnight and into Thursday morning.
Highest chance for moderate showers in the southern panhandle.

- Some clearing is possible for the Icy Strait corridor Thursday
afternoon and overnight. Areas of fog are possible during the
overnight hours.

- Slightly above normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday with
clearing skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday/...The upper level low is currently
meandering southeast, helping direct the developing low pressure
towards the southern tip of Haida Gwaii. First, this low is
developing along a negatively tilted trough with plenty of
vorticity advection aloft even if the wind speeds are lower.
Second, this low is continuing to track further and further
south, both reflective in current satellite imagery and model
guidance, this changes a few things. As there is plenty of energy
surging northward, rain chances are expected to briefly extend
north of Angoon all the way into Canada. Not expecting a long
timeframe for rain, perhaps around 6 hours of PoPs greater than
60% during Thursday, but the chances have definitely increased.
Second, easterly flow over the Coast Mountains is expected to lead
to some mid layer drying. With rain chances for the Icy Strait
corridor and Juneau, followed by drying and possible clearing,
temperatures could fall much lower than expected. Furthermore,
with recent rainfall and higher dewpoints, could see a good case
for fog in the Icy Strait corridor, corresponding with the
possible clearing.

Further south, still expecting a good douse of rainfall, with
around a 60-80% chance for moderate rain showers over Prince of
Wales Island, Rev Island, and Annette Island. No flooding or
moderate to large scale impacts are expected from this front, with
winds staying mostly lighter.

Finally, for Friday, expect to see a warming trend return once
again. Currently not expecting temperatures like we saw before
the active pattern, as temperatures aloft do not support anything
higher than the low to mid 70s for a high. However, will likely
see more sun and drier conditions throughout the panhandle.



.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...The long term forecast
continues to be relatively benign through the weekend, with
shower chances building back in Sunday into early next week.
Ridging over the gulf continues to build through the weekend,
increasing gulf winds to a northwesterly fresh to strong breeze
down the coast through the rest of the extended period and
tapering off through Tuesday. The panhandle looks to stay dry
Saturday, which will allow for widespread mostly sunny skies,
increased daytime high temperatures, and developing sea breezes
through midday. Shower potential will still be present through the
period as flow turns more westerly and onshore, but Saturday
continues to look drier and drier as it gets closer. With these
clearing skies this weekend, much of the panhandle may see high
temperatures reaching the high 60s and even the low 70s. 10 to 15
kt sea breezes should increase through midday for areas seeing
significant clearing and subsequently warm daytime high
temperatures. A tightening pressure gradient over Northern Lynn
Canal looks to increase winds through Taiya Inlet and into Skagway
through the early afternoon of both weekend days, which has the
potential to bring winds up to 20 to 25 kts with any sea breeze
influence.

The rest of the period is still relatively quiet for Southeast
Alaska standards, but shower potential will increase Sunday and
last through the early work week. An upper level shortwave trough
in the northern gulf doesn`t have much in terms of a surface
inflection, but as the disturbance with increased vorticity pushes
over the panhandle Saturday night, potential for showers
increases for the northern panhandle and along the outer coast
Sunday and through the rest of the period. Mid-level moisture
looks to be lacking through this period, so any showers that do
develop will most likely be weak and may not make it all the way
inland over the panhandle. For much of the panhandle, this may
just manifest as increased cloud cover. Even so, this will still
decrease daytime high temperature potential to the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...A trough southwest of Yakutat has brought IFR to MVFR
ceilings to western portions of the Gulf Coast. While some lower
ceilings (between 500-1000 feet) are possible for Yakutat and
Gustavus, an approaching low pressure system approaching
decreases confidence in this occurring.

As the low pressure in the North Pacific moves toward Haida
Gwaii, then it will increase shower chances and generally
deteriorate conditions to MVFR (ceilings between 1500-2500 feet),
around 10Z for areas south of Fredrick Sound and likely after 15Z
for areas north of Fredrick Sound.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds in the outside waters today
have been fairly light with a weak trough southwest of Yakutat. Into
Thursday morning, a slightly better organized low pressure system is
expected to develop in the North Pacific. Most recent guidance
suggests that the will move fairly quickly to the southwest of Haida
Gwaii. As a high pressure develops Friday into Saturday behind the
low, this will lead to northwesterly winds between to 15-20 kts in
the Southern Gulf of Alaska.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds in the Inner Channels have been
fairly light today due to a weak trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The
low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska looks to have a more southerly
track with the latest guidance, so easterly winds are expected in
Dixon Entrance. As the low tracks south, a high pressure will
develop, and could lead to some 20 kt westerly winds near Cape
Decision beginning Friday evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...Musall
MARINE...Musall

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