Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

647
FXAK68 PAFC 261441
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKST Mon Jan 26 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Pockets of freezing drizzle and snow from Anchorage north to
the Mat-Su Valleys continue through this afternoon.

2) Widespread snow remains likely across Southcentral through
midweek; highest snowfall amounts are expected across the Copper
River Basin and Prince William Sound

Overnight, satellite and radar showed waves of moisture
stretching from the Kenai Peninsula to the Mat Valley crossing
the region. Surface observations reported and AK511 web cameras
showed freezing drizzle and snow making its way to the surface
during this time. This caused visibilities to range from over 6
miles to 1 mile quickly and frequently over a short distance. A
winter weather advisory remains in effect for this region through
noon today for these conditions to continue before the
precipitation departs.

A polar low progresses across the Interior towards the Bering
Strait the next 48 hours. This will result in an Arctic trough
stretching from the Bering Sea to Kodiak Island pushing northward
today. This northward progression allows for a compact low in the
Gulf of Alaska to move toward Prince William Sound today through
Wednesday. It will continue to bring widespread snow from the
Copper Basin then westward to the Mat-Su Valley. Confidence
remains high in the snowfall amounts ranging from 4 to 8 inches
for these inland locations through Wednesday evening. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday across most of
the Copper Basin. Snowfall amounts will be higher in Thompson Pass
ranging from 15 to 20 inches by Wednesday morning.

Through Wednesday, a trough over the Bering Sea deepens and digs
into the North Pacific. This shift allows for a second Gulf of
Alaska low toward the Kenai Peninsula/Kodiak Island. A track of
this path would bring accumulating snow to the Kenai Peninsula
and Anchorage Bowl. Current accumulations range from 3 to 6
inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The remnants of a ridge of high pressure over the Bering Strait
gets shunted northward today, retreating into Northeast Russia.
This will be followed by an Arctic low over the Beaufort Sea
dropping across the Seward Peninsula and into the Bering on
Tuesday. A colder airmass associated with the low will clip the
Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta with daytime highs in the
negative single digits and teens, with overnight lows dropping
into the negative 20s. The main concern with these cooler
temperatures will be for wind chills as low as 40 degrees below
zero. The communities surrounding Bethel, from Napakiak and
Napaskiak, to Kwethluk up into Tuluksak, and then to Aniak and
Sleetmute, will all be at risk for dangerously cold wind chills
Tuesday into Thursday morning. The coldest overnight low
temperatures and wind chills are forecast on Tuesday morning, as
the passing Arctic low brings gustier northerly winds through the
region today and tomorrow. Cold weather advisories remain in
effect for both the interior Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley from Tuesday morning into Thursday morning.

Out over the Bering Sea widespread small craft winds are forecast
both today and tomorrow. Seas west of Saint Matthew Island of 10
to 12 ft will build as high as 15 to 20 ft over the western
Bering. A threat of extreme freezing spray remains a concern along
and west of the ice edge from west of Saint Matthew Island to the
north and northeast of the Pribilof Islands. Decreasing winds
later on Wednesday should see the threat of extreme freezing
spray subside.

-BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long term forecast for both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska is
characterized by a messy pattern. Many upper level features will
make their way into Alaska from the North Pacific, which will
bring a mix of weather from snow, rain, and winds.

For Southcentral, these upper level features will stream into the
Gulf of Alaska through Wednesday. The Gulf Coast is likely to see
periods of precipitation as these features push inland. Due to a
warmer air mass from southerly flow, rain or a rain/snow mix is the
likely precipitation type for these waves. Any precipitation that
makes it further inland will likely be snow. Due to the "messy"
nature of this pattern, day to day changes in the forecast are
likely as small features become better resolved.

Southwest Alaska will be a little different. Cold air from the large
Arctic trough will linger on for Thursday, allowing for snow showers
in the Bering and more constant snow in the Eastern Aleutians. There
will still be some gusty winds for the Unalaska region, so blowing
snow potential remains until Friday night/Saturday morning. After
this point, enough warm air will make it in to start transitioning
snow to a rain/snow mix. Meanwhile, the Southwest Mainland will have
periods of snow, rain, and elevated winds due to the many small
features moving in through Sunday.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light snow at the terminal is reducing vsby/cigs to IFR
this morning, accompanied by light northerly winds. A subtle
shift in the upper trough position will cause snow intensity to
diminish later this morning, potentially causing the snow to taper
off or change over to intermittent freezing drizzle. In the event
of freezing drizzle, ice accumulations would be less than one
tenth of an inch as the lower rate of precipitation continues
through tonight. Ceilings may remain as low as IFR, but are
generally expected to improve back to MVFR or even VFR along with
visibilities with the lighter/end of precipitation. Snow returns
heavier on Tuesday, though there remains a large range of timing
differences in the models. In general, expect snow to
begin/reintensify on Tuesday morning and become heavier through
the afternoon, with cigs/vsby dropping back to IFR.

Quesada

&&

$$

397
FXAK69 PAFG 261534
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
634 AM AKST Mon Jan 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A slough of advisories and warnings for cold wind
chills, blowing snow, and high winds are in effect across
Northern Alaska as a fast moving polar low traverses the state
from northeast to southwest through Wednesday. Conditions get much
quieter late Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Winter weather headlines posted for the eastern Alaska range
passes and Upper Tanana Valley Monday and Tuesday as snow
increases from the southeast. Highest accumulations within
Alaska range passes.

- Temperatures trend colder through Wednesday with coldest valley
locations reaching down to -30F to -45F

- Winds ramp up across higher elevations, peaking on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a Tanana Valley Jet sets up near Delta Junction and
southerly gap winds increase through Alaska Range Passes.

- Warmer temperatures will also build in midweek, returning to
more seasonal levels to finish out the week as drier conditions
prevail Thursday onward.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A prolonged high wind event beginning across Western Alaska,
with wind gusts of 30-60 mph becoming widespread along the West
Coast and in the Bering Strait where High Wind Warnings are in
effect.

- Temperatures plummeting back below zero through Thursday with
lows -10F to -30F and even colder wind chills.

- More widespread light snow chances will build in regionwide
southeast to northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday, shifting to
the West Coast for Thursday, as warmer temperatures also work
back in mid to late week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Wind gusts up to 60 mph and light snow are expected to continue
until 6pm this evening for the Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast where
a Blizzard Warning is now in effect. A Winter Weather Advisory
has also been issued near Deadhorse where visibility has dropped
to one quarter mile. Winds will remain lighter though, up to 30
mph and conditions will improve early this afternoon.

- Widespread double digit below zero temperatures expected to
fill in regionwide through midweek. Coldest locations are
expected to drop to around -30F to -50F.

- Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings have been
expanded to include all of the Brooks Range and North Slope
through Wednesday for wind chills as cold as -55 to -75F.

- Winds remain elevated through midweek with gusts up to around
30-50 mph, peaking for most Tuesday into Wednesday. A High Wind
Watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning for the NW Arctic
Coast where gusts up to 70 mph are likely Tuesday through
Wednesday night.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...At 500 mb, a deep 498 dam low
has moved to Mackenzie Bay. This feature along with a remarkably
strong 1064 mb Arctic High centered 700 nautical miles north of
Wrangel Island will be the two main drivers of weather early this
week for Northern Alaska. The surface high will weaken as it
drifts south, but will tighten the gradient across most of
Northern Alaska, bringing strong winds through the Bering Strait,
on St. Lawrence Island, and through the Brooks Range. A 980 mb low
will move into Prince William Sound on Tuesday, which will
further enhance the gradient. It will be a windy week for most
outside of central and eastern Interior valleys. As the 500 mb low
moves southwest across the state, reaching Nome by midday Tuesday,
southerly flow will build in behind it. This will warm
temperatures after the very brief push of cold air beneath the
upper level low.

The other feature to note is a warm front that is currently
bringing snow to the far southeast Interior. This will push
northwest as it gets caught up in the southerly flow and bring
heavy snow to the eastern Alaska Range. Winter Weather Advisories
and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect there through tonight.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...By Wednesday, weather quiets down as
the low aloft stalls off the coast of the Yukon Delta before
continuing west toward Kamchatka on Thursday. Southerly flow
behind the low weakens Wednesday night with a weak flow pattern
setting up. This will bring warmer temperatures and just a few
areas of light snow through the rest of the week. These conditions
look to hold through the weekend, though northerly winds will
likely increase through the Bering Strait again Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ801.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>811.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ850.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ812.
Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ813.
High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ803>805-808.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
Extreme Cold Warning for AKZ806-807.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-810-850-852-853-857.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-812.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Chriest

671
FXAK67 PAJK 261546
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
646 AM AKST Mon Jan 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow across most of the northern panhandle changes over to rain
through the day on Monday, lasting longer for the Klondike
Highway.

-Active pattern continues through the week, bringing rain and wind
to SE AK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The break in the pattern that SE AK had been
previously enjoying has decidedly ended, as rain and snow continue
across SE AK. A warm front has been moving up from the south
through the overnight hours, bringing with it rain and snow. As of
early Monday morning, precipitation across the southern and
central panhandle have already largely switched over to rain, with
the rain snow line currently hovering near Hoonah as of the time
of writing.

As the rain snow line continues to slowly advance northward
through the day, the Icy Strait Corridor, including Juneau, will
change over to rain. Anticipate that by the afternoon and evening
hours, everywhere barring the far northern panhandle will have
changed over. The highest additional snowfall amounts for the Icy
Strait Corridor will be for the Juneau area, where 1-4 inches
additional snowfall is expected. A heavier round of snow for
Skagway is expected for Monday night into Tuesday, before a
changeover to rain occurs for the far northern panhandle. Another
system arriving Tuesday will bring with it renewed rainfall,
although snow is not expected near sea level with this particular
system.

.LONG TERM...The warm and wet weather is expected to continue for the
long term period with a low remaining in the Gulf of Alaska. This
low will continue to bring warmer temperatures and wet weather to SE
AK. Forecast guidance continues to show moisture remaining in the
area allowing for periods of heavier precipitation to be possible.
With the warmer temperatures continuing across the area, most places
will stay as rain throughout the week. The few places that could see
snow accumulations would be the Haines and Klondike Highways.

Winds are expected to continue to persist over from Monday for the
southern panhandle with wind gusts reaching potential up to 50 mph
for some locations such as Annette, Prince of Wales, and Ketchikan
before wind gusts are expected to drop Tuesday evening. For the
waters, most places will see up to strong breezes to near gales
through the Inner Channels. The exception to this will be Clarence
Strait which could see winds up to strong gales. Along the outer
coast, gales are expected move up the coast throughout the day on
Tuesday with winds diminishing behind the low as it tracks to the
north.

Heading into the latter half of the week and start of the weekend,
CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks continue to show an increased
likelihood for above normal temperatures as well as above normal
precipitation across SE AK.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...Flight conditions will
generally be in the MVFR/IFR range for the start of the TAF period,
improving a bit into MVFR category from south to north as we
progress through the period. Southeasterly winds will increase,
becoming rather breezy/gusty as we progress from the afternoon
through the rest of the TAF period. Primarily centered up at around
2 kft, southeasterly to southerly LLWS magnitudes of up to around 30
to 40 kt are anticipated, increasing as time progresses & the
farther south and toward the Outer Gulf Coast you go.

&&

.MARINE...
Outer Waters: A relative lull, with seas of between 5 to 8 ft
across the outer coastal waters, will give way by Monday night as
as multiple systems take aim at SE AK. Winds will ramp up to gale
force for many areas by late Monday night, while southerly swell
looks to rapidly increase to S 15 ft through early Tuesday
morning, along with gale force winds. Associated combined waves
look to exceed 20 ft on the western portion of Prince of Wales
Island up to Cape Edgecombe.

Inner Waters: Winds are gradually increasing as a weak front
continues to move northward. Not expecting a strong gust factor
due to the stable nature of the occluded warm front, but could see
moderate to fresh breezes associated with the frontal passage up
to around the Icy Strait corridor. A second, stronger front looks
to move up along the panhandle Monday night into Tuesday,
increasing winds in the southern panhandle to a low end gale, and
to fresh to strong breeze for many of the other inner channels.



&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
Tuesday for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ325.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Tuesday for
AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-661>663.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-031>035-643-651-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC/GFS

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