Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

728
FXAK68 PAFC 230112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to promote weak
northerly flow across Southcentral tonight through Sunday morning.
Areas of fog that have persisted through the day on Saturday are
expected to continue or redevelop through tonight. Reduced
visibility has been noted across Southcentral from the Matsu down
into Anchorage for much of the day and little improvement is
forecast over the next 12 to 18 hours. A low-level inversion and
lingering moisture from recent rain and snow continues to
contribute to an environment favorable for the development and
sustainment of fog. A dense fog advisory remains in effect from
Birchwood into the Anchorage Bowl through 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Aside from the fog, a quieter weather pattern has set in across
Southcentral with drier conditions and a cooling trend over the
next couple of days. Overnight low temperatures Sunday morning and
again on Monday morning will easily dip down into the single
digits across the Copper River Basin, while lows in the teens and
low 20s are forecast from the Susitna Valley down into the Kenai
Peninsula. The cooler temperatures and denser air mass will
support the usual uptick in gap winds through Seward, Valdez Arm,
Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots
will be common place while winds gusting through Thompson Pass are
expected to climb into the 30 to 35 mph range by midday on
Sunday.

The biggest forecast challenge for tomorrow entails whether low
stratus develops over Cook Inlet. Forecast models have hinted at
light snow potential over Cook Inlet Sunday morning. Should this
occur light snow will be possible from Nikiski down to Ninilchik,
including Kenai and Soldotna.

Looking further ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf
and Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will
overspread the region with showery conditions into the middle of
next week.

BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Much of Southwest Alaska remains under the influence of the
western periphery of a longwave trough extending across much of
Northwest Canada and the southern Mainland. A couple embedded
shortwaves are dropping down along the coast towards the AKPen,
and this has helped keep just a bit more snow shower activity
going this afternoon despite the overall downward trend in
precipitation coverage. Across the Bering, a strong upper ridge is
in the process of becoming part of a Rex Block that will set up
over the region during the rest of the weekend into early next
week. To the southwest of this ridge, an intense Storm force front
associated with a ~970 mb North Pacific low is now moving into the
western and central portions of the Aleutian Chain. Shemya has
already seen a few easterly wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph this
afternoon, with similar winds expected to soon pick up through
Adak and Atka later this evening into tonight as the front moves
steadily northeast.

Overall, there are no major changes to the outlook through early
next week. One notable short term forecast challenge will involved a
rapid succession of multiple triple point lows expected to spin up
along the front as it lifts across the Aleutians into the southern
Bering Sea on Sunday and Monday. Winds could be a bit stronger
than forecast at times where these lows do end up forming and
locally enhance the already strong gradient between the front/low
and blocking ridge building to the north. These features are too
small and transient to pin down with precision all far ahead of
time, so this will be something to monitor for forecast
adjustments over the next day or so until the front shifts north
of the Aleutians/AKPen Monday into Monday night. Low level
temperatures will stay warm enough for most of the Aleutians to
see rain close to sea level along this boundary through Monday.
The Pribilofs could see a period of snow on the leading edge of
the precipitation shield as it moves up into the Bering on Monday,
but even here, temperatures will warm enough to see mostly rain
through Tuesday.

Across Southwest, conditions are still on track to stay calm but
cold through early next week. Snow showers will diminish this
evening into tonight as the main shortwave overhead rotates
offshore and as drier air begins to filter in from the Interior.
Temperatures will steadily cool through Sunday night as slowly
increasing northeast flow developing between the North Pacific low
and strong northern Bering ridge continues to help draw cool, dry
air into place. Depending on what happens with any lingering cloud
cover, temperatures could dip all the way down into the 0s above
for overnight lows on Sunday night across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Delta. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph could push
windchill values into the -10s at times from late Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound from Monday to
Tuesday as flow turns more southeasterly and as the front tracking
across the Bering and Aleutians slowly approaches the coastline.
Most of the region will stay dry through early next week, but a
few spots along the immediate coast from Bristol Bay up into the
Kuskokwim Delta could begin to see periods of snow or a rain-snow
mix on Tuesday.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern Bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter-time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.

Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.

As we continue to Friday into Saturday, model guidance is in
excellent agreement on amplification of the upper level flow and
development of an Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected
this far out in time, there is large spread in the location of
the ridge/trough and track of a leading surface low from the
Pacific. This evolving pattern does have good potential to bring
higher impact weather to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed
precipitation-types, and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we
monitor the location of key features and identify the areas where
the greatest impacts are most likely.

-SEB/AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The challenge over the next 24 hours will be the extent of
lingering fog and mist across the terminal. Areas of fog area
expected to drift over the terminal through late evening, with
ceilings and visibilities fluctuating between MVFR and LIFR. By
tonight, widespread dense fog is expected to blanket the terminal
with visibilities at one half mile or less prevailing. The fog is
likely to remain over the terminal through late Sunday morning
before slowly moving west of the terminal and eroding, leading to
a return of VFR conditions. Brief periods of very light snow may
precipitate out of the fog overnight through mid-morning Sunday,
leading to a trace of accumulation at most.

&&


$$

614
FXAK69 PAFG 222233
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snowfall continues across a large portion of the Interior as well
as up along portions of the North Slope this evening and into
early Sunday before eventually coming to an end. Much colder
temperatures are then set to move southwards from the Arctic coast
into the interior and along the West Coast for the first part of
next week. Storminess will begin to pick up over the West Coast
by late next week with some of that activity entering the Interior
by next weekend.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow tapers off this evening and overnight. A few showers
remain early Sunday. Storm total snow is listed below (Friday
through Sunday).
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
be north and east of Eagle Summit.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
temperature inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated snow showers diminishing overnight. Accumulations less
than an inch.

- North-northwesterly winds along the coast diminish overnight as
well.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valleys lows fall to the negative single
digits late Sunday into Monday.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
teens and possibly the negative 20s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Troughing continues across Alaska with upper low circulations
located across the northern Gulf and just east of the Brooks Range
over the far northern Yukon Territory of Canada. The circulation
over the Yukon has been the dominant player as far as Interior
and North Slope snow production has been concerned the past 24
hours or so. Meanwhile upper ridging is in place across the Bering
and extending north towards the Chukchi Sea.

As we go forward models are generally in good agreement with
regards to the upper trough breaking down and a strong ridge
building north through the Chukchi and into the Beaufort as a
building 1040 mb surface high prepares to set up residence along
the Arctic coastline for the start of next week. The effects on
our sensible weather will be a general downward trend in snowfall
coverage and intensity through this evening and overnight with
cold air advection working south through the North Slope and
Brooks Range Sunday, eventually engulfing much of the Interior by
Monday and Tuesday. As skies clear next week, temps should tumble
with Interior lows nearing -20 F in the colder spots and highs in
the lower single digits to near zero.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Tuesday through next Saturday.

At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday, a strong
upper level Arctic high pressure around 552 decameters sits over
the Chukchi Sea and a messy upper level low around 515 decameters
spins south of the Aleutians which will slowly weaken through the
week. These two features interact to generate gusty easterly flow
across the Interior and West Coast. Areas that recently received
snowfall may be vulnerable to periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow. This high brings colder, drier, and clearer
conditions through much of next week to the region.

Later next week, another low moves from the west across the North
Pacific and phases with the weakening low south of the Aleutians
Thursday. This creates a very amplified pattern Friday into next
weekend with a strong upper level low in the North Pacific and a
developing ridge in the northeastern Pacific stretching towards
the Arctic high which will have moved slowly east towards the
Eastern Arctic Coast. This highly amplified pattern could produce
a strong atmospheric river transporting moisture from as far south
as 20N towards Alaska. If that develops, then significantly
warmer and wetter conditions are possible across Northern Alaska
potentially bringing large amounts of wintry mix and rain to areas
of the Interior. Confidence is still low on the exact details of
this feature due to how far out it is, but there is good run to
run consistency in the models and relatively good ensemble
agreement. The biggest area of potential uncertainty is in how
this next low phases with the previous one and where exactly an
atmospheric river could develop. Further west solutions would be
more likely to bring rain to the Interior, but it is still unclear
on how this system will develop. Regardless it will still be
strong enough to bring significant warming and much more moisture
to the state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>806-852-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-808-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-853-856.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Laney

678
FXAK67 PAJK 230701
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1001 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.

- Rain/snow mix across the southern panhandle Sunday, becoming
light snow sunday night for the northern panhandle

- Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/...A broad, weakening
low stalling in the central gulf continues to spin through the
weekend, sending light showers through the panhandle. Only around
0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain are expected Saturday night, with
another inch of snow for the Klondike Highway near White Pass. A
small shortwave moving in overnight Saturday will bring slightly
more organized precipitation to the southern panhandle for Sunday
before spreading north into Monday morning. The winds will not be
an issue through the short term, staying around 15 to 20 kts in
the gulf following the shortwave band. Southwesterly winds
following the band will curve southeasterly along the coast,
picking up speeds to around 25 kts in the gulf coming out of Cross
Sound on Sunday and quickly diminishing into Monday. An overcast
cloud deck will move in Saturday night with this shortwave and
slowly spread north through Sunday, though the far northern
panhandle will have a chance to see some breaks in the clouds
Sunday night before the band moves in.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, with highs around the high
30s. As the shortwave moves into the southern panhandle, rain may
begin to mix with snow at higher elevations. Only around an inch
of snow would be possible during the day, though mixing with the
0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain expected and the daytime temperatures
being near 40 will limit snow accumulation. As the shortwave
spreads into the northern panhandle by Sunday evening the snow
potential will become more and more likely, with around one to
three inches possible for those northern communities overnight
into Monday morning. The rest of the panhandle will continue to
see light rain of less than a quarter of an inch Sunday night.
The low pressure system in the gulf looks to fall apart through
the day Monday, though the southwesterly gradient will continue
onshore flow into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...Starting Monday morning, a low in the Gulf continues
to weaken while still bringing some onshore flow to the area.
This onshore flow will likely continue to bring showers to the
panhandle. More specifically, the central panhandle looks to be
the main focus for any precipitation that does fall. As this low
weakens, high pressure is starting to look more likely to develop
in the Interior as well as near the Yukon. With this strengthening
high pressure as well as cold air from the Arctic, the pressure
gradient between the coast and the Yukon is expected to
strengthen. With this increased gradient, winds are expected to
increase through the gaps in the terrain bringing us offshore
flow. With the offshore flow, precipitation chances are expected
to diminish as well as colder temperatures are looking more likely
for this upcoming week. Some places could potentially see their
coldest temperatures since last winter. There is still some
uncertainty in ensemble guidance so the fine details are not as
clear yet. But this pattern change is looking very likely headed
into next week. Headed into the latter half of the week, the
uncertainty continues with regards to potentially seeing a warm up
for the panhandle. But with the cold air in place, any moisture
that moves into the area could fall as snow before switching to
rain. Things could still change going forward and will continue to
be watched.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Monday/...For the northern Panhandle,
primarily VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
For southern TAF sites, conditions will deteriorate into the MVFR
category starting late tonight / early Sunday morning & last
through the TAF period as an atmospheric wave pushes northward
through the panhandle. For the general Icy Strait Corridor region,
anticipate conditions to deteriorate into the MVFR category
starting during the late Sunday afternoon / early evening hours.
SFC wind & LLWS magnitudes are expected to remain on the benign /
lighter side through the period. Additionally, some locations
around the central panhandle may experience some areas of patchy
radiation FG for the remainder of this evening into the overnight
hours, as well, as those areas are experiencing breaks in the
cloud cover & light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Onshore flow from a departing shortwave northern
British Columbia and southern Yukon will give way to a weak,
somewhat vertically stacked low in the northern central gulf. A
short wave negatively tilted trough will move up from the south,
kicking up southerly winds up to a fresh breeze along the NE gulf
coast down to around Cape Decision. As the associated front moves
against the terrain, expect to see a tip jet develop across the
coast of Cape Spencer, with winds exceeding 25 knots. Waves remain
elevated from westerly to southwesterly swell to 12 ft, with
overall wave heights beginning around 13 ft, and diminishing to
around 7 ft throughout through tomorrow night.

Inside Waters: The trough expected to move up through the southern
and central panhandle looks to stall around Icy Strait, keeping
Lynn Canal mostly drainage flow past tomorrow night. Wind
associated with this trough look to be around a moderate to fresh
breeze from the SE, steadily increasing over the day Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC

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