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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
407 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2020
...2020 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.
...There is a normal to above normal probability of flooding during
the next three months...
Outlook:
Locations that typically flood each spring are expected to
experience minor flooding during the outlook period ending at mid-
May. Locations with a 50 percent or greater probability of flooding
include the following: Little Blue River near Barnes, Big Blue River
at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion at Frankfort, Vermillion Creek near
Louisville, Solomon River at Niles, and Marias Des Cygnes River near
Reading and Quenemo.
Recent Conditions:
Average temperature during the past 60-days ranged from around 30
degrees across north-central Kansas to the middle 30s in east-
central Kansas. These values are generally 2 to 5 degrees above
normal.
During the past 60-days, precipitation totals ranged from near 2
inches across far northeast Kansas to nearly 6 inches over parts of
east-central Kansas. These values ranged from 100 to 200 percent of
normal precipitation.
Present Conditions:
Across the NWS Topeka HSA, current soil moisture percentiles range
from in excess of 95 percent across north-central Kansas to around
90 percent in east-central Kansas. To the north, much of south-
central Nebraska have soil moisture percentiles in excess of 99
percent. 7-Day average streamflow indicates above to much above
streamflow values across southern Nebraska, into northern and
eastern Kansas.
No snow cover exists over southern Nebraska into far north-central
Kansas. Further south, snow cover over northeast and east-central
Kansas contains less than a half inch of water equivalent.
Available local reservoir flood control storage is currently above
99 percent.
Future Conditions:
Precipitation over the next seven days is expected to be less than a
tenth inch of liquid across all of Kansas and Nebraska.
During the 8 to 14 day period, the overall pattern favors below
normal precipitation and slightly above normal temperature across
the northern half of Kansas.
During the March through May period there is no strong signal for
either above or below temperatures while the pattern favors an
increased probability of above normal precipitation across far
northeast and eastern Kansas.
The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 27, 2020.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 8 5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 38 32 21 29 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 52 34 16 7 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 72 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 77 68 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 16.0 24.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 27 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 25 41 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 18 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 15 15 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 14 12 7 7 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 17 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville 30.0 34.0 44.0 : 57 51 33 33 <5 <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 38 42 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 5 6 5 5 <5 <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Topeka 4nw 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton 17.0 23.8 38.0 : 12 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 14 21 6 6 <5 <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 14 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 23 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : 8 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Clay Center 15.0 21.0 28.0 : 41 27 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 28 23 17 14 <5 <5
Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ada 18.0 19.0 24.0 : 14 21 12 19 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 50 47 36 30 <5 <5
:Saline River
Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 36 37 25 26 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 19 23 8 8 <5 <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 46 43 40 39 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 56 54 48 49 <5 <5
Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 61 60 29 37 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 46 49 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 31.0 33.0 45.0 : 24 26 5 5 <5 <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 30 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 18 18 11 13 <5 <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 27 16 5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 33 27 15 13 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 7 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Emporia 3nw 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 22 9 20 8 <5 <5
Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 32 18 29 16 <5 <5
Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 9 8 9 8 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 14.7 18.0 21.3 26.8 31.6 33.6 39.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 3.0 4.5 6.2 9.8 14.0 15.8 19.4
:Mill Creek
Washington 2.3 2.6 7.9 14.5 18.5 21.8 23.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes 4.8 6.1 10.9 17.0 21.6 24.5 26.1
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 16.9 20.1 23.0 30.8 34.4 41.8 44.8
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 4.1 6.8 19.7 23.0 24.8 26.4 26.9
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 0.8 0.9 4.1 5.8 7.9 12.2 13.8
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 6.0 6.7 10.9 14.4 19.4 21.7 22.2
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 8.9 9.9 11.4 14.3 21.1 29.8 33.4
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 4.1 5.2 8.2 12.6 18.4 24.7 25.6
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 8.1 8.9 10.3 13.3 17.0 22.1 24.2
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 4.0 4.7 5.6 6.7 9.8 14.6 19.6
:Kansas River
Manhattan 8.6 9.7 10.9 13.7 16.5 19.8 21.2
Wamego 5.8 6.8 8.7 11.0 14.5 16.4 19.5
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville 11.7 14.2 23.6 31.9 36.2 38.1 39.9
:Rock Creek
Louisville 9.0 9.6 10.5 12.0 14.8 18.3 22.9
:Kansas River
Belvue 7.8 8.9 10.8 12.7 15.6 17.4 19.6
:Cross Creek
Rossville 9.8 12.0 13.7 16.0 21.3 23.9 24.9
:Mill Creek
Paxico 6.7 7.2 9.7 15.6 25.5 28.1 29.5
:Kansas River
Topeka 8.1 9.3 12.0 14.9 18.6 23.2 26.7
:Soldier Creek
Delia 7.8 10.3 13.2 17.4 22.8 24.8 25.4
Topeka 4nw 2.7 4.9 7.6 9.4 14.7 19.2 21.6
:Kansas River
Lecompton 6.2 7.1 9.1 11.2 14.0 18.0 20.2
Lawrence 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.5 17.0 19.0 21.2
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s 7.8 9.1 12.7 16.6 19.9 21.7 23.9
:Republican River
Scandia 2.6 3.2 4.0 5.2 7.7 10.6 11.4
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 5.6 12.4 15.4 18.3 18.7
:Republican River
Concordia 6.1 6.5 7.6 9.2 12.5 14.4 16.2
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.7 4.7 6.0 7.1 7.8 9.0 11.3
:Republican River
Clay Center 8.6 9.1 11.3 14.3 17.2 18.0 20.2
:Solomon River
Glasco 10.0 10.0 10.0 16.7 24.5 27.9 29.9
Minneapolis 6.2 6.2 6.3 13.5 22.3 24.9 28.0
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.7 4.7 5.5 10.4 14.3 19.8 20.7
:Solomon River
Niles 12.2 12.2 13.9 24.1 29.2 29.7 30.0
:Saline River
Tescott 6.5 6.9 9.3 17.8 29.0 31.0 31.9
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 9.6 11.5 15.1 20.7 24.5 29.2 31.1
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.6 3.6 5.5 8.9 11.7 14.2 15.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 12.2 14.3 18.8 24.3 29.1 32.5 36.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 5.7 6.9 12.1 20.2 23.2 23.9 24.5
Quenemo 5.4 8.2 13.2 18.9 25.5 28.2 29.5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 3.1 3.8 5.8 9.6 13.1 14.1 15.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 10.4 14.0 17.8 26.6 30.9 32.2 33.4
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 9.9 16.2 22.3 24.2 26.5 28.2 28.8
Lane 7.4 10.3 13.1 19.5 22.5 24.6 25.9
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw 1.2 8.8 12.7 18.1 22.0 23.0 23.4
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 4.7 7.1 9.5 16.3 21.8 25.4 25.9
:Neosho River
Americus 5.8 6.3 10.2 12.9 21.0 25.4 26.7
Emporia 3nw 10.7 11.2 12.6 13.9 18.3 22.9 24.0
Neosho Rapids 5.3 6.8 9.7 16.5 24.5 27.7 29.2
Burlington 7.0 7.4 11.4 13.9 16.7 18.2 19.3
Leroy 4.5 5.7 10.5 13.9 17.7 22.3 27.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
:Mill Creek
Washington 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 16.1 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9
:Fancy Creek
Randolph 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
:Kansas River
Manhattan 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Wamego 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8
:Rock Creek
Louisville 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5
:Kansas River
Belvue 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3
:Mill Creek
Paxico 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3
:Kansas River
Topeka 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1
:Soldier Creek
Delia 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 4.0 4.0
Topeka 4nw 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4
Lawrence 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.9
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
:Republican River
Scandia 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Republican River
Concordia 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
:Republican River
Clay Center 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2
:Solomon River
Glasco 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
Minneapolis 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
:Solomon River
Niles 9.0 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0
:Saline River
Tescott 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
Quenemo 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Lane 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.
$$
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