WROtext

WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 950 AM EDT Monday October 28 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF November .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Below normal streamflows are expected to persist in areas of the eastern half of the Ohio River forecast basin though there are some signals of the situation improving somewhat during the course of November. Elsewhere there are some signs of some above normal streaflow in the far western basin, particularly in southeast Illinois. Elswhere normal streamflows are forecast for November; a climatologically a drier moth for the Ohio Valley as a whole. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Drought conditions continue to be quite widespread at the end of October, particularly in West Virginia, Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, and Indiana. November could see some improving conditions on the drought in general. However given how, climatologically, November is one of the Ohio Valley's drier months large dents in it are unlikely. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... The vast majority of the Ohio River forecast basin saw below normal rainfall for the month of October. Most areas ran about 50 percent of normal. Areas of northern Indiana were as low as 10 to 25 percent of normal. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture is below to well below normal for the entire northern half of the Ohio River forecast basin. Driest core runs through southeast Ohio with the 5th percentile. The southern half of the Ohio Valley is generally normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows are generally below normal for the northern half of the Ohio Rover forecast basin and normal for the southern half. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Neutral = Near Normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Positive = Below Normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Positive = Below Normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Developing La Nina = Minimal https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Obviously, the month of November will start quite dry in a lot of areas of the Ohio Valley. This is particlarly the case in the northern half. There are signals that there could be some more regular periods of precipitation as we get further into November. However, at this moment these look pretty normal precipitation-wise. Therefore, it is not expected to make a large dent in the dry conditions...merely aid in improving the current conditions. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$