Expert Forecast Opinion

200
FXUS63 KDTX 240849
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
449 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with a gradual warming trend today into Wednesday.

- Showers expected Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms.
There is a slight chance for severe storms near the Ohio border.

- Colder temperatures Friday will give way to a warming trend over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry airmass in place over southeast Michigan with high pressure in
place. This high will exit east this morning, allowing for
thickening mid to high clouds today with southwest winds increasing
into the 10 to 20 knot range, strongest winds over MBS. Winds
quickly diminish this evening and back south-southeast, while mid
clouds persist. Very low chance the light southeast flow off Lake
Erie causes light fog over the southern tafs late tonight, much like
the start of the taf period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

High pressure over srn Lower Mi early this morning will be forced
southeast to the upper Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region today.
This will occur as a low amplitude short wave impulse tracks from
the far northern Great Lakes to eastern Ontario. Sustained
subsidence in the 3-8k foot layer and ample low level dry air will
maintain a dry forecast today. Southwesterly return flow circulating
around the departing sfc high will drive a little warmer air across
Se Mi. After a cold start to the morning, diurnal heating within
this return flow will push afternoon highs well into the 40s.

Broad mid level warm air advection will affect the Great Lakes
region late today through Wednesday night. The corresponding
isentropic ascent in the mid and upper levels will support intervals
of mid and high level clouds. Model soundings all maintain ample dry
air below 800mb, which will sustain a dry forecast through these
periods. Persistent low level SSW flow will sustain warm air
advection through the mid week period, driving highs well into the
50s on Wednesday.

Zonal flow and strong baroclinicity across the Conus midweek will
support a strong upper jet core (160 knots) along the US/Canada
border. This jet core will sink into the northern Great Lakes Thurs
into Friday as broad long wave troughing develops across nrn Ontario
into ern Canada. This will drive the corresponding low to mid level
baroclinic zone across the Great Lakes Thursday. With indications of
a surface wave developing along the associated surface front and
strong low to mid level frontogenetical forcing, high chances for
rain showers will be warranted Thursday. Slight model differences in
the northward advection of the surface based instability plume into
nrn IN/OH and far srn Lower Mi will have large impacts as to what if
any severe weather potential may impact the far southern portions of
Se Mi (mainly along/south of the I-94 corridor). Much of this will
depend on how quickly the cold front and post frontal shallow stable
layer move across Se Mi and to what degree upscale convective growth
may occur across nrn Indiana. Favorable deep layer shear and low
level helicity profiles will support a severe wx threat, predicated
on whether the instability axis is able to advect north of the MI/OH
state line. While the severe risk remains in question, an influx of
elevated instability will warrant the chance of thunderstorms across
the southern half of the forecast area. Decent post frontal cold air
advection will ensure seasonally cold temps on Friday before a
gradual moderating trend takes hold over the weekend.

MARINE...

High pressure is quick to depart this morning as a cold front tied
to northern Ontario low pressure glances Lake Huron. Southwesterly
winds strengthen in advance of the front with strongest gusts
occuring over the central portions of Lake Huron peaking near 25kts.
Rest of the lake favored to hold closer to 20kts. Otherwise, front
only brings light rain-snow showers to the northern portions of the
region. The central Great Lakes reside along the fringe of strong
upper jet over the upper Midwest/Superior through midweek offering
periodic rain or rain-snow showers and generally modest winds as low
pressure systems pass just to our north. A strong cold front is
looking probable Friday ushering in a renewed shot of strong cold
advection and a chance to reach gales for a few hours (~35%
currently).

HYDROLOGY...

There is a high likelihood for showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday. The highest likelihood for total rainfall amounts will be
a quarter inch or less. However, the convective component suggests
some locals may see rainfall totals of a half inch or higher. The
probabilities for rainfall amounts over an inch are less than 10
percent. These rainfall amounts and the progressive nature of the
cold front responsible for the rain will limit the risk of any
flooding.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....SC


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