Expert Forecast Opinion

299
FXUS63 KDTX 231058
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
658 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected through the
rest of the workweek.

- Next chance for showers/storms arrives late Saturday night into
Sunday while temperatures climb into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as the center of
a surface high pressure drifts across the southern Great Lakes. This
will bring stable conditions and light winds. Daytime heating may
bring a FEW/SCT cumulus field this afternoon, but moisture is
limited. Any mid level cumulus will dissipate this evening. Tonight
will carry a calm to light and variable wind and clear skies under
10kft.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms forecast.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

An upper level jet streak will eject through the basal
subgeostrophic portion of Eastern North America troughing today
causing significant filling of geopotential heights over the central
Great Lakes for the end of the week. Low to midlevel temperatures
will steadily moderate over the coming days with 850mb temperatures
now at +7C to +8C rising +12C to +13C by Friday evening. High
temperatures today are expected to be in the upper 70s with low to
middle 80s by Saturday. Strong upper level low pressure system over
Hudson Bay will help facilitate well organized northwest flow and
troughing over the Great by late Saturday and Sunday.

Models have been adamant in forecasting an abundance of shortwave
energy digging through Lower Michigan in northwest flow the latter
half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. From this
vantage point, precipitation chances appear to be scattered during
the late weekend period with the strongest synoptic support for low
pressure arriving sometime late Monday or Tuesday. Conditions
project to be very warm and humid Sunday through Tuesday with
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s
to low 70s.

MARINE...

Slowly warming airmass over the next couple of days, as 850 MB temps
reach around 12 C on Friday. With the center of the surface ridge
over the southern Great Lakes today into Friday, the lightest winds
will be over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. Even over Lake Huron,
wind speeds should remain predominately under 20 knots. A surface
trough slowly passing through during the weekend will bring a good
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, though winds are
expected to remain light.

The next notable storm system arrives on Monday, as low pressure
tracks across the northern Great Lakes. Strong thunderstorms are
possible as the cold front works through the Central Great Lakes
during the evening hours. Northerly winds behind this system Monday
night into Tuesday have the potential to reach and exceed 20 knots
for a period of time.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......SF


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