Expert Forecast Opinion

050
FXUS63 KDTX 202304
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
704 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog tonight.

- Mild and dry through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear skies and light winds prevail through the evening period as
high pressure maintains dry and stable conditions. Conditions will
become favorable for some degree of fog and/or very low stratus
development late tonight. Forecast will continue to highlight a
window for MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions with an entry level
mention for very low stratus. There remains potential for one or
more southeast Michigan terminals to witness a period of LIFR in
fog/stratus, although confidence in occurrence remains too low to
include attm. Any lingering fog/stratus will lift thru late morning,
affording another period of clear skies with light wind for the
remainder of the daylight period.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

DISCUSSION...

A blocking pattern will result in surface high pressure and ridging
being entrenched for most of this week across the Great Lakes
yielding quiet weather conditions.

Surface high pressure slides into Quebec with a light east-
southeasterly wind component prevailing into tonight. A similar set
up tonight compared to last night with favorable radiational cooling
conditions. The lingering lake moisture and a little more notable
moisture influx off Lake Erie should bring potential again for fog
development tonight. It is difficult to pin down where exactly
greater coverage of patchy dense fog may develop, but models suggest
greater potential exists for a broader area across southeast Michigan
to be impacted by some coverage of fog by tomorrow morning.

No major swings in the thermal profiles for the week with
persistence of a warmer airmass that brings temperatures that are a
few degrees above climatological norms. Afternoon highs will be
mainly in the 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid-upper 30s
to mid 40s.

The northern stream across central Canada will send a front into the
region that will weaken and stall out as it moves into the Great
Lakes tomorrow while longwave ridge amplification ramps back up
ensuring. Lack of any deeper moisture will allow dry and around or
slightly above normal warmth into the weekend. High pressure centered
over eastern Canada will offer potential for slightly cooler
temperatures Friday down to around 60 with the northerly flow
becoming established for the day. Temperatures quickly recover as
thermal ridge builds back into the Great Lakes for the weekend. The
next indication of a pattern change is next week as long range
ensemble members point toward a stronger Canadian wave that will
break down this blocking pattern and open up the door to our next
chance a precipitation and cooler temperatures.

MARINE...

High pressure remains over the region through the end of the week
resulting in benign marine conditions. The current high slowly
shifts east through Wednesday night with a dry cold front then
passing southward early Thursday. This front will quickly be
followed by another high pressure system that will hold through most
of the weekend. Wind gusts will stay below 20 knots through the end
of the week. Winds will be southerly through Wednesday before
flipping around to the north for Thursday behind the cold front
early in the morning.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......DRK


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