Expert Forecast Opinion

330
FXUS63 KDTX 231505
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1005 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Saturday morning
with wind chill values dropping to between -15F and -25F.

- Coverage and intensity of lake effect snow showers will decrease
during the morning hours with new snow accumulations of less than a
quarter inch.

- Confidence continues to rise in widespread accumulating snowfall
for Sunday, including the potential for 3+ inches focused south of M-
59.

&&

.UPDATE...

Good low level cold advection allowed temps to dip below zero north
of eight mile this morning, with low single numbers south. Sustained
northwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up around 30 mph has also
allowed wind chills to reach -20 to -25 F or even slightly colder in
spots. None-the-less, this late morning period looks to be the
coldest period for wind chills, as the late January sunshine allows
for modest recovery in temperatures, but still holding mostly in the
low single numbers today. Tonight, winds will become light with
bubble high pressure developing over southern Lower Michigan, as the
main arctic high will be positioned over southern Minnesota. Thus,
wind chills should not be a big factor tonight compared to the actual
temps. Regardless, actual surface temps/mins reaching around 10
below zero with a slight wind will continue to support wind chills of
-15 F or colder. Thus, no plans to change the cold weather advisory,
which runs through 10 AM Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 618 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

AVIATION...

Moisture along and ahead of a cold front will bring the potential
for snow showers at the Detroit terminals the first hour of the taf
period. Very dry air associated with surface high pressure will lead
to low sky fraction this morning before diurnal heating contributes
to stratocumulus development this afternoon. A lowering inversion
will then dry the lower column out and lead to SKC tonight.

For DTW...Snow showers will be possible the first hour of the taf
period. MVFR development appears likely by the early afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon.

* High for precip type as snow through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

An airmass of Arctic origin spilled across the Great Lakes region
overnight, resulting in anomalously cold temperatures and wind
chills this morning. 08Z readings were generally in the low to mid
single digits (F), but with post-frontal gradient winds holding in
the 10-15 knot range, actual wind chill values will drop into the
-15F to -20F range as cold air continues to filter in. Based on
expected temperature/wind trends through the remaining morning
hours, the likelihood to reach Extreme Cold Warning criteria (-25F)
in widespread fashion appears low, especially south of I-69. No
headline adjustments were made with this morning`s forecast, but a
few isolated/outlying areas could briefly experience wind chills
below the -25F mark. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
through Saturday morning, as similar conditions are still expected
to repeat tonight into Saturday morning.

For the rest of today, the closed low featuring a sampled 495 dam
geopotential height at 500 mb (23.00Z CWPL RAOB), broadens as it
ejects ENE across Quebec. This reinforces adjacent positioning of
the polar jet for most of today with the 150 knot core residing over
southern Lower Michigan. Meanwhile, differential cold advection
helps steepen low-level lapse rates while mixing depths hold near
the 850 mb level (4 kft AGL). In spite of observed upstream 850 mb
temperatures of -37C and -33C at KINL and KMPX, respectively, low-
level flow trajectories over Lake Michigan will have a minor
moderating effect upon arrival to Southeast Michigan. 850 mb
temperatures minimize within the -25C to -30C range locally between
15Z and 21Z, per model data. This translates to high temperatures
struggling to get much more than a few degrees above 0F during the
daylight hours today. Gradient winds hold from the WNW AOB 15 knots,
therefore daytime wind chills should linger in the minus teens for
most of the day. Snowfall should become more transient with time and
minimal accumulations. SLRs decline with decreasing dendrite quality
given the lack of DGZ overlap, therefore wind-blown snow should tend
to be more impactful than new accumulations. Tonight will be the
coldest night of the week with lows of -10F or colder possible.
Fortunately, winds weaken and trend toward calm late tonight as
diffuse surface high pressure sets up over southern Lower. Still
expect wind chill values to fit squarely within Cold Weather
Advisory criteria.

Weak low-level wind field Saturday minimizes opportunities for
another round of lake effect snow. Not much in the way of relief
from the cold, but the difference between air temperatures and wind
chills will be limited as high pressure crosses over Southeast
Michigan, eventually flipping light winds easterly.

The next precipitating synoptic system lifts out of the southern
Plains early Sunday preceded by an extended ramp of isentropic
upglide through the Ohio Valley and Lower Peninsula. This
facilitates column moistening and the development of light snowfall,
well downstream of the northern and southern stream wave phasing
that unfolds over south-central CONUS. The lag in dynamic support
until later in the day Sunday suggests less than an inch of snow on
the ground heading into Sunday morning, before the better rates
arrive during the day with the strongest dynamic influence and deep-
layer DGZ intersection. The QPF footprint with this system is
relatively narrow where the highest confidence in 3+ inches is
focused south of M-59. Further north, and even moreso west, QPF
drops off sharply with less than an inch of total accumulation
anticipated north of M-46.

MARINE...

The expansion of arctic air in the wake of a cold front will
maintain strong overlake instability and a deep mixing layer which
will retain breezy conditions. Wind gusts around 25 to 30 knots are
expected through the day. Some isolated gust to gales cannot be
ruled out across northern Lake Huron this morning, but the gradual
expansion of a strong high pressure system will limit gale potential
through the day. Gale Warnings have expired, but a Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron. Additionally,
snow squalls remain likely favored through north and north central
Lake Huron where low-level convergence is maximized. Rapid
reductions in visibilities are likely under any snow squall.

Arctic air holds over the weekend but lighter winds are expected as
the aforementioned high pressure system settles over the area. An
expansive low pressure system over the eastern US will then clip the
southern Great Lakes Sunday, bringing widespread light snow through
the day for portions of the southern Great Lakes.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for today, January 23rd.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1883)
Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1959)
Saginaw: 3 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363-
462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
CLIMATE......TF/KGK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.