Expert Forecast Opinion

737
FXUS63 KDTX 072232
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
632 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers are possible mainly towards the evening and early
overnight hours tonight across Lower Michigan.

- Temperatures recover into the 60s tomorrow with mostly dry
conditions.

- Warmer Saturday with showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely
during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...

Another mid level disturbance within an active pattern will maintain
a higher coverage of cloud within the 6 to 10k ft layer through
tonight. Dry low level conditions ensure VFR, while limiting
rainfall potential to a lower probability for some pockets of light
showers /mainly PTK southward/. A period of clear skies for the
early part of Friday as weak surface ridging moves through. Another
weak mid level wave traversing the Ohio valley will bring additional
thicker high based cloud for the mid afternoon to evening hours.
Winds prevailing from the west-southwest through the day.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Cool Canadian troughing/cyclonic flow over the region through the
afternoon has maintained the cooler temperatures today that have held
in the 50s. Though, the coldest air has held well to the north
towards Hudson Bay with the parent low. The troughing is carrying an
embedded wave over Michigan and a boost in lapse rates that has
brought a healthy diurnal cumulus field. It will also be supporting
isolated shower activity as the main shortwave features tracks
overhead. The better activity will be towards the evening and early
part of the night and focused across Lower Michigan. Deep mixed layer
today will continue to support a few brief gusts to around 25-30 mph
before increasing stability this evening brings an end to these
gusts.

For tonight, temps cool down towards the mid-upper 30s on average.
Cooler spots across Midland and Bay County may creep closer towards
the lower 30s if better duration of clearing occurs. This area would
be the more favorable spot for any frost headlines. As it stands, it
looks like it would only be for northern portions of the each county
and there still may enough of a dewpoint spread to prevent much
frost formation. Thus, will hold off on any frost headlines up
against our neighbor offices.

Sustained troughing through the plains and Midwest will promote some
moderation to the airmass tomorrow as lower level south to southwest
flow develops. Temperatures at 850mb will climb above 0C for
tomorrow afternoon and lead to a bump in daytime highs into the 60s
for most of the area. A trailing weak shortwave will promote a weak
surface reflection that will push a plume of better theta-e towards
Lower Michigan. Will again see low end PoPs along the southern border
as system moves across IN/OH while most of the area remains dry
tomorrow.

A stronger shortwave diving out of central Canada wild drive a cold
front through Michigan on Saturday resulting in likely rainfall with
a chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon. Meager instability
ahead of this front with only a few hundred j/kg of MLCAPE and
MUCAPE available building in ahead of the front will preclude
mention of any severe weather. It looks like temperatures will be
able to reach super 60s in spots to maybe 70 degrees across the metro
before colder air behind the front arrives. Post frontal
northwesterly wind and a cooler/drier airmass will take over for
Sunday. Long range models depict a PacNW wave driving through the
north end of the southwest US ridge arriving locally Tuesday leading
to the next better chance at a rain and possible thunderstorms.

MARINE...

High pressure at the surface will result in a weak pressure gradient
and thus light winds through Friday. Mid levels remain active though
with broad troughing over the region directing a series of weak
systems aloft across the area. First one comes this evening and will
result in mainly cloud cover with a few light showers possible.
Stronger system will pull a cold front through on Saturday bringing
increased winds up to around 25 knots and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......DRK

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.