Expert Forecast Opinion

512
FXUS63 KDTX 011034
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
534 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windchill around zero this morning increase into the high single
digits by the afternoon.

- Seasonally cold weather will persist into the weekend. Windchill
are expected to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above
zero.

- A dusting of snow accumulation possible this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...

Skies have largely cleared this morning within post frontal dry
arctic air advection under northwest winds. The northwest winds will
back toward the west this morning, driving some of the Lake Michigan
moisture plume into Se Mi. Available guidance suggests a mix of MVFR
and VFR based strato cu. A region of mid level moisture will move
across srn Lake Mi and Lower Mi this afternoon/evening. This will
allow some enhancement of the Lake Mi response, likely leading to some
flurries and/or light snow showers from KFNT south across the metro
Detroit terminals.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning. High this afternoon
and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

DISCUSSION...

A very cold start to the morning with temperatures in the single
digits to low teens and wind chills to zero and below. This is
the result of the arctic airmass now entrenched across SE MI in
the wake of yesterday`s frontal passage, with 850 mb temperatures
holding around
-17C to -20C. Dry advection behind the front scoured out cloud
cover and has allowed for efficient radiational cooling. The cold
persists this afternoon with highs holding in the low 20s. There
will be a brief window for some sunshine this morning until the
low-level wind field backs to the west, which will release Lake
Michigan moisture inland late this morning, while clouds expand
in coverage due to daytime heating.

For tonight, a fast moving clipper from the northern Plains will
translate into southern Lake Michigan and northern Ohio Valley
late tonight. This will mostly result in flurries for the northern
third of the cwa, but a low chance for a light dusting will be
possible for I-69 south given some very weak lake moisture
enhancement from the southern basin of Lake Huron. In general
though, the progressive nature of the wave is a limiting factor
for accumulation. A second clipper is then favored to target the
northern Great Lakes late Saturday. At present time the track of
the low and strong vort max looks to hold across northern lower
Michigan which would limit snow accumulations to around a dusting,
this time favored north of M59, however, any southward
progression of forecasted track could creep totals closer to an
inch, especially through the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Outside of
this, dry conditions and below normal temperatures are favored to
end the week.

For next week, the axis of the thermal trough pivots towards the
continental NE, allowing a more zonal flow regime to develop and
support moderation from the Plains into the Great Lakes. This allows
temperatures to return back to near or slightly above normal values
by Monday. There is increasing chances for an additional clipper
system to target SE MI Monday morning with additive forcing along an
elevated warm front. While too early to get into specifics on snow
amounts, this setup does present better chances for accumulating
snowfall. Primary uncertainties revolve around exact track of the
upper wave and attendant frontogenetical forcing, but current
signal favors northern lower Michigan into the northern half of the
cwa as the most likely corridor for potential snow accumulation in
excess of one inch.

MARINE...

Moderate NW winds of 25-30kts, strongest in northernmost portions of
Lake Huron, shift to more westerly through the day while largely
maintaining strength as the region remains under the edge of broad
troughing. While heavier freezing spray potential diminishes over the
course of the morning, areas of freezing spray continue for the open
waters through Friday as an arctic airmass holds overhead. Winds WNW
winds begin weakening into Saturday as the gradient finally begins
to slacken. Additional weak clippers round the trough into the
region this weekend bringing light snow chances however a still
fairly diffuse gradient keeps winds sub 25kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Wave of isentropic lift and midlevel moisture advection will track
across Southeast Michigan this afternoon and tonight. Deep column
saturation is anticipated, leading to widespread light to moderate
snow across all of Southeast Michigan in the 19-02z time window.
Respectable large scale dynamics for lift with an already strong
potential vorticity anomaly digging at an almost due equatorward
trajectory. Conservation of vorticity and the influence of
increasing cyclonic curvature is forecasted to result in sharpening
925-850mb and 850-700mb frontogenesis particularly over the southern
half of the cwa after 21z. Steepened lapse rates between 1.5-4.0 kft
agl on the north side of the cold front, and supersaturation with
respect to ice will lead to the potential for some brief snow
squalls. UVVs through the DGZ and surface temperatures in the 20s
supports high LSRs and a powdery snow at better than 16:1. EPS data
for once shows a very tightly clustered solution space with regards
to snow amounts with the control, mean, and interquartile range
around 1.0 to 1.5 inches at Detroit, Pontiac, Flint and Bad Axe. A
short duration of forcing is expected to be the limiting factor in
this event. Snow covered and slippery roadways are certainly
possible and any communication of impacts will be better handled by
short fused products.

Cold advection will drop temperatures into the single digits late
tonight and daybreak Thursday. Mixed northwesterly flow of 10 to 20
mph is expected to result in windchills in the single digits below
zero. Cold troughing will then be in place and largely remain the
influence over the region going into the weekend. The control run of
the ECMWF has been bullish with some very light QPF spreading into
Lower Michigan Thursday evening/night. Decent enough phased upper
level jet forcing which should be good for seeding, but forecast
soundings show very little frontal structure aloft. With 850mb
temperatures around -15C, would not be surprised if there are virga
returns on radar with some flurries. Added flurries to the forecast
but given the lack of any good QPF signal in the models and to
maintain collaboration will not increase PoPs.

Differential geopotential height rises with confluence aloft will
largely support ridging at the surface Friday and this wekeend. With
that stated, fast northwest flow is projected to direct some weak
shortwave energy into the region at times. One shortwave will be
Saturday night, but the wave should undergo significant dampening as
it becomes increasingly detached away from the exit region forcing.
Light snow shower chances Saturday night mainly north of the area.
The next potential shortwave that is advertised over the region
early Monday will have a potential for more synoptic scale lift
support. Quick look at plan view progs show a much better setup for
warm air advection in addition to upper level jet forcing. Highs
Monday and Tuesday look to be at or slightly above normal.

MARINE...

Weak clipper system currently dropping through lower MI at time of
discussion drags an arctic cold front through the central/southern
Great Lakes this evening-early tonight. Winds flip to the northwest
post-front with a 2-3hr uptick in wind gusts towards 30-35kts in the
immediate wake before slightly diminishing back towards 25-30kts for
the night. Given the marginal nature in duration of gusts reaching
35kt gales, have continued to hold off on any headline for Lake
Huron. Arctic air filtering south however supports areas of heavy
freezing spray, particularly across the northern half of Lake Huron,
warranting the issuance of a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for these
waters. Troughing influence holds across the Great Lakes Thursday
into Friday resulting in persistent moderate (20-30kts) WNW winds.
In combination with an arctic airmass lingering overhead, freezing
spray lingers through the end of the week. Additional weak clippers
round the trough into the region this weekend bringing light snow
chances however a still fairly diffuse gradient keeps winds sub
25kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK


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