Expert Forecast Opinion

319
FXUS63 KDTX 122012
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
312 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No precipitation expected through the weekend.

- Temperatures warm tomorrow through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Weakening flow and increasing subsidence has effectively cleared
the lower stratus from earlier as surface high pressure rolls
through Michigan. Light northwest flow has allowed for lingering
lake moisture and diurnal stratocu this afternoon which should
scatter out this evening into tonight. Limited clouds tonight and
the continued snow pack will help low temperatures tonight drop to
the lower teens.

Surface high pressure and 850mb ridge will pass to the east tomorrow
morning bringing a stretch of weak warm advection with deeper
southwest to west lower level flow. Temperatures at 850 mb will
gradually warm towards 0C Friday and Saturday, eventually topping 0C
on Sunday. This slight warming trend will bring daytime highs to the
upper 30s and low 40s for tomorrow and Saturday with Sunday up
towards the mid 40s. Guidance continues to point towards dry
conditions holding through the weekend with southeast Michigan
residing between northern stream and southern stream systems. The
stronger of the two being the southern stream moving across the Gulf
states with the associated northern end of precipitation likely only
reaching the Ohio Valley. The northern stream looks to hold north of
Lake Huron.

Greater warm advection enters the region early next week as west
coast troughing pushing into the plains with afternoon highs Tuesday
possibly achieving the 50 degree mark. The leading ridge should keep
conditions dry through bulk of the Monday and Tuesday stretch.
Increasing moisture will arrive and set the stage for the next
chance at precipitation, possibly as early as Tuesday night. Greatest
chances likely for Wednesday as a low pressure system organizes
along baroclinic zone under left exit region jet dynamics. Current
forecast of low pressure track and temperatures would bring rain as
the dominate p-type.

&&

.MARINE...

An area of high pressure will affect most of the central Great Lakes
through the weekend. A clipper system is expected to cross the
northern Lakes on Friday bringing slightly stronger winds and a bit
of snowfall to northern Huron. Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will
prevail with gusts AOB 25 knots. The gradient relaxes Friday night,
after the system exits eastward, then trajectories veer WNW Saturday
morning. A secondary surface high passes over Lower Michigan on
Saturday leading to weak and variable winds. Winds then back
southerly with time. Lighter flow continues Sunday while a weak
frontal boundary turns weak prevailing flow westerly Sunday evening.
A split-flow configuration keeps winds AOB 15 knots early next week
with minimal opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

AVIATION...

Remnant stratocu streamers lift and scatter out through the
remainder of the afternoon, disrupted by the dry antecedent airmass
and surface high pressure. As this process occurs, not out of the
question for occasional broken coverage to develop (mainly from MBS-
DET) but the general trend is for decreasing coverage. Northwest
flow relaxes through the evening before shifting to the southwest
overnight, effectively shutting off any lingering lake moisture
flux. Observations have been much drier than modeled moisture fields
today and yesterday, affording a more aggressive and quicker
clearing trend overnight than many models are suggesting. VFR and
light southwest flow prevails Friday, with mid-high cloud clipping
the Saginaw Valley/Thumb regions as an upper level disturbance
pivots across Lake Huron.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. Low
tonight and Friday.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK
AVIATION.....MV


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