Expert Forecast Opinion

530
FXUS63 KDTX 302241
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
641 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with lots of sunshine through the middle of next
week.

- Cool tonight, then seasonable temperatures prevail. Warmer weather
is likely late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Persistent high pressure across the Great Lakes Region will continue
to support quiet conditions through the forecast period. Some
decaying cirrus will loiter on the southwestern horizon. Otherwise,
winds will become light and variable tonight into the early portions
of Sunday. Light south/southwest flow will emerge Sunday morning.
Toward the early evening hours onshore flow from the big waters will
release and start approach the terminals.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms through Sunday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

DISCUSSION...

The upper air pattern remains dominated by an omega block over
central North America. The ridge stretching from northern Manitoba
to the lower Ohio Valley maintains clear skies and light winds over
SE MI through the rest of the weekend. Onshore flow and an 850mb
thermal trough in the wake of last night`s cold front has held
temperatures on the cooler side today with current readings mainly
in the 60s and lowers 70s - the exception being Port Hope in the
northern Thumb which remains a brisk 50F. With dew points a few
degrees on either side of 40F, favorable radiating conditions will
bring tonight`s lows into the 40s for most of the area outside of
the Metro Detroit urban heat island that should hold closer to 50.
Temps rebound tomorrow as the air mass begins to modify and light
wind emerges from the west. Mid 70s are attainable by the afternoon
with another day of abundant late May sunshine.

The next lobe of vorticity within the longwave trough over eastern
North America plunges southward across the eastern Great Lakes on
Monday, sending the next back door cold front across the area. May
see an uptick in boundary layer cloud with this feature, otherwise a
dearth of moisture offers another mostly sunny day with highs in the
70s. Onshore flow behind the front holds lakeshore communities
mainly in the 60s.

The omega block begins to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as the
closed upper low over the interior northwest CONUS gets nudged by a
Pacific jet and begins to migrate toward Manitoba. This dislodges
the upper ridge which then crests over the Great Lakes by Wednesday,
promoting highly stable and sunny conditions through midweek. As the
surface high progresses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on
Thursday, deeper layer southwest flow will favor a warming trend for
the late week. Medium range guidance begins to differ with handling
the upper wave as it tracks across the northern Great Lakes Thursday
night into Friday, with notable run-to-run inconsistencies as well
as between modeling systems. The grand ensemble space does support
an uptick in instability and chances for convection during this
period.

MARINE...

High pressure governs marine conditions through the weekend into
next week. Northeast flow subsides this evening as the high pressure
center approaches, leading to light and variable winds Sunday.
Another cold front drops across the region Monday morning, with
light northeast winds developing in its wake. Gusts approach 25
knots Monday afternoon over Inner Saginaw Bay where flow aligns with
fetch of the bay. Elsewhere gusts stay capped below 20 knots. Dry
weather is expected through the forecast period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....Mann
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV


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