Expert Forecast Opinion

289
FXUS63 KDTX 262054
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect until 4 AM tomorrow morning.

- Lake effect snow showers into this evening. Highly variable
accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches expected by tomorrow
morning.

- Wind chills drop into the teens Thursday morning and into the 20s
by Thursday afternoon.

- Snow showers and gusty winds (30-40 mph) continue Thanksgiving
Day. Another dusting to 2 inches will be possible, although the
Thumb region will see locally higher amounts.

- Winter system over the weekend brings potential for several inches
of snow accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty WSW winds are well underway this afternoon associated with the
strong low pressure system tracking across the Straits this
afternoon. These winds are being supported by a 50-60 knots low
level jet sweeping around the low and directly over southeast
Michigan. Winds peak this afternoon and early evening with highest
wind potential from 5 pm to about 11 pm. Occasional pop to 50 mph or
greater will be possible with the Thumb shoreline being the favored
location. The cold advection will prevent much stabilization
tonight, though mixing heights do decrease. Elevated winds gusting to
30-45 mph should hold through much of tonight. Will keep the Wind
Advisory in effect into early tomorrow morning, though there will be
potential to end it early.

The other item of note today and tonight will be the transition to
predominately snow as surface temperatures continue to fall with
better saturation within the DGZ. This will be coincident with strong
dynamics and the expected lake moisture flux off Lake Michigan (and
partly Lake Superior) as winds turn more westerly into this evening.
Any accumulation through the remainder of this afternoon should hold
to around a half inch or less and stay confined to grassy/elevated
surfaces. Better snow accumulation potential will develop later this
evening as surface temperatures eventually dip to near freezing and
eventually below while greater coverage and intensity of lake effect
snow showers also ramp up. Snow squall parameter values will be on
the high this evening and tonight, though lower level instability is
not overly impressive. The potential for more localized more intense
lake effect snow bands and the elevated winds will bring concern for
variable driving conditions from any intense lake effect snow
showers that can develop. Thinking has not changed much in terms of
snow accumulations through 7 am tomorrow morning with anywhere from
a dusting to 2 inches across southeast Michigan. High end of these
amounts should be more localized and tied to the more intense lake
effect showers.

The stronger/larger scale dynamics begin to ease for Thanksgiving as
the low lifts into Quebec. However, the cold thermal trough with
high overlake delta Ts and the persistent WNW wind will maintain the
lake effect regime. Hi-res models continue to point towards a
transition to more focused lake effect bands. The most dominant band
appears to focused from Traverse Bay down into northern Bay County
and the Thumb. The 12Z suite of guidance continues to point towards
a swatch of snow accumulations possibly up to 4 inches over the
course of Thanksgiving day across the Thumb. This would require both
maintenance and residence time of that lake effect extension into
the Thumb through Thanksgiving afternoon and evening. Confidence
still a little too low to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory at this
time, but still requires monitoring for potential advisory issuance.
Remainder of southeast Michigan, will again see anywhere between a
dusting to 2 inches of possible accumulation with expected
variability of higher totals based on where more dominant and
persistent bands set up. Models point towards another more prominent
band focused along the I-94 corridor and points south given the wind
trajectory. Winds will continue to be gusty tomorrow with gusts
mostly in the 30-40 mph range through the day, holding below advisory
criteria. Mid range snow squall parameter values (4-7) across all of
southeast Michigan tomorrow brings potential for continued variable
driving conditions under more intense snow bands with rapid
fluctuations in visibility and potential snow accumulating on
roadways. Wind chills tomorrow morning will be down in the teens and
hold in the low-mid 20s during the afternoon.

Early Friday morning will begin to see more intense lake effect
bands weaken with perhaps some isolated snow showers still lingering
during parts of the day as NW winds persist in the backdrop of
rising heights. Attention will then be on the system over the
weekend as troughing across the plains drives a surface low pressure
through the Great Lakes. Ensemble support and latest long range
model trends show increasing potential for several inches of
snowfall that would warrant winter headlines in the coming days.
Current timing starts Saturday afternoon and continues into Sunday
morning. Even colder temperatures will follow this system with high
temperatures Monday and Tuesday down into the mid-upper 20s.

&&

.MARINE...

Respectable low pressure system is currently tracking over the upper
peninsula at time of discussion as arctic air begins overspreading
the central Great Lakes following this morning`s cold front. Peak
winds for most the area occur late this evening-tonight as a
secondary cold front sweeps through shifting winds to the west (and
eventually northwest by Thursday morning as the low pushes into
northern Ontario). Positioning of the low center favors the
strongest gradient, and subsequent strongest winds, to set up over
the southern half of Lake Huron-including the Saginaw Bay, as well
as the southern Great Lakes. Gusts over these waters likely reach 40-
45kts tonight. While Gale Warnings went into effect for the northern
Lake Huron waters this afternoon, wind gusts will be slower to
increase owing to closer proximity to the low center with 35kt gales
becoming likely late this evening following the secondary cold
front. Strongest gusts, around 40kts, for this portion of the region
occur daytime Thursday as the gradient begins to tighten on the
backedge of the departing low. Lake effect snow showers already in
the process of developing at time of discussion persist through
Thursday resulting in variable visibilities including potential
whiteout conditions over the lakes. Northwesterly winds Thursday
don`t begin to weaken until late day with entry level gales still
possible for much of Thursday night. Pressure gradient over the
central Great Lakes finally relaxes Friday as the northern edge of
Ohio Valley high pressure briefly clips the area allowing winds to
dip below 30kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

AVIATION...

Disorganized light snow/rain shower activity around this afternoon.
Strong southwest winds this afternoon gusting 30-40 knots will veer
around to west this evening and carry through much of the taf
period. Westerly winds will allow for numerous Lake Effect snow
shower activity, but bands look to be transient, and should
constrict in coverage overnight. MVFR cigs through evening hours,
but just enough drying expected late tonight into tomorrow to
support just low VFR/borderline MVFR cigs, outside of any very
nature moisture plumes, which still may be able to touch off some
light snow activity. Low confidence in impacts to taf sites, but did
throw in at least flurries.

For DTW...Disorganized light snow/rain shower activity moves through
late this afternoon, with increasing chance of light accumulating
snow shower activity this evening. Main band is not expected to
persist and should drift south overnight, limiting total
accumulation to half an inch to one inch.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less today and tonight, medium
tomorrow.

* Medium for westerly cross wind being met this evening through
Thursday.

* Moderate for precipitation type as snow by late afternoon then
high this evening and beyond.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for LHZ361-362.

Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LHZ363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

Low Water Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SF


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