Expert Forecast Opinion

957
FXUS63 KDTX 130357
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the mid 80s today, upper 80s Monday, then reaching
around 90 degrees on Tuesday.

- Dry start to the week, but showers and thunderstorms likely return
Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR skies will be the predominate category through this TAF period.
A cold front currently tracking into western Michigan will continue
to progress east through the early morning hours possibly touching
off a few isolated showers. The main outcome of this front will be a
SCT low VFR to possible brief MVFR deck this morning as it passes
with skies improving throughout the day. Winds turn westerly with
the frontal passage and remain mostly below 10 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms are expected during this
TAF period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less with the cold front early
this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

DISCUSSION...

Broken line of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms went up on
the prefrontal trough around noon, earlier and more extensive than
many of the hires solutions. Dew pts dropping into the mid to upper
60s and surface ridging moving in late this afternoon has pretty
much ended the severe threat, as mid level cold pool and much better
wind shear over Western Great Lakes will not arrive in time before
the sun sets. Still, the cold front may be able to muster a couple
more showers and thunderstorms in the evening with some residual low
instability left over.

Upper level trough axis swings through tomorrow, but extremely dry
mid levels (40-50 C dew pt depressions at 700 MB) look to prevent
any activity from going up, except perhaps right near the southern
Michigan border.

Upper level ridge (591-592 DAM at 500 MB) axis then builds over the
region early next, promoting dry but hot weather, with temps likely
reaching 90 degrees on Tuesday.

A wet pattern then looks to be setting up for Wednesday-Thursday as
moisture streams up from Gulf Coast States/Southern Plains, in
response to a fairly strong upper level wave/trough swinging through
the northern Rockies and into the Western Great Lakes by Thursday.
Euro ensembles indicating at least a 60 percent chance of a tenth
or inch or more of qpf in Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

MARINE...

The thunderstorm threat has generally receded although some isolated
development remains possible through the evening hours. Otherwise,
dry conditions prevail in the wake of the ongoing cold front passage
which brings light winds with gust potential holding below 20 knots.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive through the
midweek period by Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance arrives
over the Great Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM


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