418
FXUS63 KDTX 310154
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
954 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly above normal temperatures into tomorrow.
- Low chance for a isolated light showers late Saturday towards
central MI.
- Mild early to middle next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds persist overnight as high pressure expands
into the region and eventually drifts overhead. This causes winds to
organize out of the southeast by mid Saturday morning, but remain
light. Otherwise, VFR expected through the TAF period although there
will be a steady stream of mid cloud based between 7.0 and 10.0 kft
agl.
D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF
period.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
DISCUSSION...
Inbound high pressure expands into the central Great Lakes this
evening/tonight and brings quiet weather conditions into tonight
with just a some high clouds streaming across the area tonight under
a light to calm wind. The high clouds will be focused across lower
portions of southeast Michigan tonight. This will cause a difference
in radiational cooling conditions with the Thumb and Saginaw Valley
likely being around the freezing mark tonight under more favorable
conditions compared to locations towards the southern MI border that
will be about 10 degrees warmer for the overnight low.
High pressure maintains influence over the region tomorrow as mostly
dry conditions largely prevail. A warm front is forecast to lift
towards the region tied to a weakening shortwave lifting out of the
southern Plains. Better theta-e surge and moisture transport will be
to the west of Lake Michigan. Outgoing forecast remains dry Saturday
and Saturday night, but a few isolated light showers may be possible
with the weak theta-e advection west of the forecast area that could
encroach on western portions of southeast Michigan. Minimal QPF
expected if it does occur.
High pressure lingers over the Atlantic coast early next week as
western CONUS troughing marches into the plains during the mid week
period. This will lead to a southerly wind component prevailing
across Michigan and bringing mild temperatures. Decent spread in long
range models in regards to timing of the next chance of
precipitation as longer wave troughing develops over the central
plains with the potential for a secondary Canadian shortwave merging
with the broader trough. Broad brush of PoPs Monday night into
Wednesday highlight the uncertainty in timing. Forecast within this
pattern has daily highs in the 60s with increasing humidity helping
keep overnight lows in the 50s. Late week stands best chance for
cold frontal passage bringing temperatures back to around the average
for this time of year.
MARINE...
High pressure builds in this evening and through tomorrow which will
lower wind speeds across Lake Huron and will maintain lighter winds
through the weekend. High pressure exits into New England late
tomorrow into Sunday which will bring southerly flow this weekend
that will last into early next week. Mostly dry conditions are
expected, outside of isolated spotty showers. More active conditions
then enter late Monday and through the Midweek period as low
pressure develops over the Plains before moving across the northern
Great Lakes. This will bring breezy south flow Tuesday and Wednesday
along with rain showers and a low chance for an isolated
thunderstorm.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
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