Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid November 20, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, November 27th, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Despite a small stripe of heavy rain over south central Illinois, much of the recent rainfall did not make a significant difference in drought conditions. The highest probabilities (40%) of seeing more than an inch of rain will be south of I-70, rather than over the worst of the drought conditions. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for central and southeast Illinois Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east-central Illinois over Piatt, Douglas, Champaign, Moultrie and parts of Coles, De Witt, and Edgar Counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Most of central Illinois near and north of I-72, as well as Vermilion County. Also including Moultrie, Coles, and Edgar Counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Most areas near and south of I-70, along with Shelby County. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area in southeast Illinois near the Wabash River in Lawrence and southeast Crawford counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for central and southeast Illinois One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of De Witt, Moultrie, Coles, and Vermilion Counties. Drought Improved: N/A No Change: Most of central and southeastern Illinois Image Caption: One week change in drought monitor categories. Image from Drought.gov. Recent Precipitation Rainfall over the last week was highest south of a Springfield to Danville line (>0.50”), with a narrow corridor of 1” or higher from near Pana east to Terre Haute. Widespread areas of east central and west central Illinois have seen less than 25% of normal rainfall during the last month. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of November 19th. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow on most rivers is below normal, with several river basins below the 10th percentile. Near record low flow on the east end of the Sangamon River basin is impacting water supplies of Lake Decatur downstream. Lake levels: Lake Decatur around 3 feet below seasonal normals, Lake Shelbyville about 2.2 feet below normal, Lake Springfield 0.8 feet below normal. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Poor pasture conditions providing very little or no feed for livestock. Supplemental feed required. Fire Hazard Impacts Localized, enhanced fire risk where any burning is being done. Other Impacts Extremely poor to record low water table and deep soil moisture conditions. Mitigation Actions Stage 1 water rationing is in effect in Decatur. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, Sangamon, and Kaskaskia Rivers. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 19, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid October 22, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending October 18, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A couple periods of rain chances are on tap, one through Friday night and the other early next week. Best chances for any meaningful drought relief will be south of I-70. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 6 PM Thursday, Nov 27. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The impacts of La Niña conditions lean toward December trending cooler and wetter than normal. The November temperature outlook depicts approximately equal chances for above and below normal temperatures, on average throughout the month. Image Caption: Precipitation (left) and temperature (right) outlooks for December. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage While the drought is forecast to persist through the end of the year, trends are pointing toward improving conditions through the balance of the winter season. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook released Nov. 20, valid through February 28, 2026. Images from Drought.gov. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook