Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid November 6, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, November 13th, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Despite some light rain as of recent, drought has persisted over the past week. A few thundershowers are forecast Thursday night, but rain amounts will generally run under a quarter of an inch. There will be a 50-80% chance for additional rain Saturday evening north of roughly I-72 with totals up to a half inch in places. Otherwise, dry weather is forecast over the next week. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for central and southeast Illinois Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east-central Illinois over Piatt, Douglas, Champaign, and extreme southeast McLean counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Most of central Illinois near and north of I-72, except Vermilion county. Also including Douglas, Moultrie, Coles, and Edgar Counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Most of Vermilion County, and most counties south of a Shelby county to Clark county line. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area in southeast Illinois near Wabash river in Lawrence and southeast Crawford counties as well as in a sliver of eastern Vermilion county. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for central and southeast Illinois One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: N/A Drought Improved: N/A No Change: All of central and southeastern IL Recent Precipitation Well below normal precipitation was observed over central and southeast Illinois in the past week since Oct 30th. 30-day precip continues to run well below normal over central and southeast Illinois. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of November 5th. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, Mackinaw, Little Wabash and Wabash Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. October average streamflow in the Sangamon River near Monticello was the lowest in the 118-year period of record. Lake levels: Lake Decatur 1.6 feet below seasonal normals, Lake Shelbyville about 2 feet below, Lake Springfield slightly below normal in the past week. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts N/A Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans continue in a number of counties and local municipalities. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Young trees and landscaping plants are stressed. Mitigation Actions None brought to attention Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois and Mackinaw Rivers. The Sangamon River is also near record low streamflow. The Wabash River is also below normal streamflow. Southeastern IL streamflows are generally near normal. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 5, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid October 22, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending October 18, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days will be little to nothing across southern IL, while north of I-72 and especially north of I-74 at least some beneficial rainfall (0.25-1 inches) is expected, mainly Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 7 PM Wednesday, Nov 12. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook for November has roughly equal chances for above and below normal precipitation. The November temperature outlook depicts approximately equal chances for above and below normal temperatures, on average throughout the month. Monthly outlook (issued 18th of the month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage 1 Month Drought Outlook will be updated for December on November 30th. Visit CPC.gov for the updated image then. While the drought is forecast to persist this month, there are some signs of improvement in portions of central & eastern IL by the end of January. Image Caption: (Right) Climate Prediction Center 1-Month Drought Outlook for November released Oct 31 and (Left) Seasonal Drought Outlook released Oct 31, valid through January 31, 2026 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook