Drought Information Statement for 
Central and Southeast Illinois
Valid February 5, 2026
Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL
Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov

The next update will be around Thursday, February 12, if conditions persist or worsen.
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Key Messages:
A cold, dry week prevented drought conditions from significantly improving or degrading over the last 7 days.
A pattern change will occur early next week, bringing much warmer temperatures and a few periods of light precipitation.  There is currently a two-thirds (66%) chance that central and southeast Illinois will receive one-quarter inch (0.25”) of precipitation or more between Tuesday and Thursday (2/10 - 2/12).
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U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought Intensity and Extent:
D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A
D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east-central Illinois including Piatt, Douglas, and Champaign Counties, and parts of Moultrie, De Witt, McLean, Coles, Edgar, and Vermilion Counties.
D2 (Severe Drought): Most remaining portions of east-central Illinois.
D1 (Moderate Drought): The vast majority of counties across western, central, and southeast Illinois.
D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area northwest of the Illinois River.

Image Caption: One week change in drought monitor categories. Image from Drought.gov. 

Recent Precipitation
Over the past seven days (right), precipitation was minimal to non-existent due to a lingering dry, arctic air mass.


Looking at the last 30 days (left), the region was generally drier than normal. The exception was a narrow band of near-to-above-normal precipitation that fell mostly between January 8-10, extending from east-central Missouri to northeast Illinois.
Last 7 days and 30 days
Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of January 14. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. 

Summary of Impacts

Hydrologic Impacts 
Streamflow is below normal for most rivers from the Sangamon River southward ( < 25 percent of normal). 
Near record low flow on the east end of the Sangamon River basin is impacting water supplies of Lake Decatur downstream.
Lake Decatur is reported to be several feet below normal. Lake Springfield is slightly below normal.

Agricultural Impacts
No recent impacts reported in the past week. 

Fire Hazard Impacts
None reported.

Other Impacts
Extremely poor to record low water table and deep soil moisture conditions.
Several reports of dry wells across east-central Illinois, particularly Vermilion County.

Mitigation Actions
Voluntary Stage 1 water rationing is in effect in Decatur.
Voluntary water conservation requested in Bloomington and Sullivan.


Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
A pattern change will occur early next week, bringing much warmer temperatures and a few periods of light rain.
There is currently a two-thirds (66%) chance that central and southeast Illinois will receive one-quarter inch of precipitation or more between Tuesday and Thursday (2/10 - 2/12).
Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 6 PM Thursday, February 5. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts.
Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 6 PM Wednesday, February 11. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts.

Long Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
There are approximately equal chances for above or below normal precipitation for the month of February.

Below normal temperatures are favored (40% to 50% chance) across central IL for February.

Image Caption: Precipitation (left) and temperature (right) outlooks for February. 
Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts.

Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Drought is forecast to improve or end across the area through the end of April.
Image Caption: 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook released Jan. 31, valid through April 30, 2026. Images from Drought.gov.
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook