Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois
Valid January 8, 2026
Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL
Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov

The next update will be around Thursday, January 15th, if conditions persist or worsen.
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Key Messages:
Little to no rainfall occurred over the past week, leading to a worsening of drought conditions for much of central IL.
1” or greater rainfall is forecast for the hardest hit drought areas over the next week, likely leading to status-quo or slight improvement in conditions through mid-January.
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U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for central and southeast Illinois

Drought Intensity and Extent:
D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A
D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east-central Illinois including Piatt, Douglas, and Champaign Counties, and parts of Moultrie, Coles, Edgar, and Vermilion Counties.
D2 (Severe Drought): Most of east-central Illinois, extending but narrowing toward portions of west-central Illinois.
D1 (Moderate Drought): The vast majority of counties across central and southeast Illinois.
D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area in southeast Illinois near the Wabash River in Lawrence and southeast Crawford counties.

Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 1-week change map for central and southeast Illinois
One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 
Drought Worsened: 
Portions of southern Illinois

Drought Improved:
Portions of northern and central Illinois

No Change:
The majority of central Illinois remains unchanged


Image Caption: One week change in drought monitor categories. Image from Drought.gov. 

Recent Precipitation
Little to no precipitation occurred over the last week (right).
The past 30 days (left) generally had a mix of above and below normal precipitation, with the driest areas across southern IL.
Last 7 days and 30 days
Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of December 30th. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. 

Temperature
Average temperatures were slightly above normal during the month of November.
Averages for the last week of November were slightly below normal. December (not pictured) has also had a colder than normal start across central and southeast Illinois.
Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of November 30th. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
Streamflow on most rivers is below normal, with many basins below the 25th percentile and several below the 10th percentile. 
Near record low flow on the east end of the Sangamon River basin is impacting water supplies of Lake Decatur downstream.

Agricultural Impacts
No recent impacts reported in the past week. 

Fire Hazard Impacts
None reported.

Other Impacts
Extremely poor to record low water table and deep soil moisture conditions.

Mitigation Actions
Voluntary Stage 1 water rationing is in effect in Decatur.
Voluntary water conservation requested in Bloomington.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Most streamflows are below normal, with the most significant streamflow impacts on portions of the Sangamon and Illinois Rivers.

Some smaller streams are reporting near normal flows north of the Sangamon basin in central IL, as well as the Vermilion Basin in east-central IL.


Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid December 23, 2025.

Agricultural Impacts
Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state.
Image Caption: 
Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid October 22, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory.
Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending October 18, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields.



Image Caption:
Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30.
Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center.
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
1-1.5” rainfall is forecast to occur across central and eastern IL over the next week, possibly providing for some improvement of current drought conditions.





Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 6 PM Thursday, January 15. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts.

Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
Summarize conditions and impacts here


Long Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Above normal precipitation is favored for January (33% to 60% chance) across central IL for January.
There are approximately equal chances for above or below normal temperatures for the month of January.

Image Caption: Precipitation (left) and temperature (right) outlooks for December. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts.

Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Drought is forecast to improve or end across the area through the end of March.
Image Caption: 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook released Dec. 31, valid through March 31, 2026. Images from Drought.gov.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook