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000
FXUS64 KHGX 120919
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
419 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

  ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE CLOSING IN ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

AT 4 AM...IKE IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. THE
STORM IS MOVING W-NW AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 AM AND AFFECT THE COAST
BY 11 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY 6 PM.
PARTS OF THE COAST WILL ENDURE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR 8 TO 10
HOURS. CURRENT TPC TRACK TAKES THE STORM RIGHT OVER GALVESTON
ISLAND AS A CATEGORY 3 STORM. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY AND THESE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN HIGH/STRONG THROUGH MID-DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE BEEFED UP QPF TOTALS AND WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE
FLOOD STATEMENT REGARDING THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM SURGE
WITH THIS STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN A STORM OF THIS
MAGNITUDE SHOULD PRODUCE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER EVENT. PLEASE HEED ALL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SEE TCPAT4 AND HLSHGX FOR
MORE DETAILS.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A COOL FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  79  87  78  85 /  40 100 100  60  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  78  84  77  84 /  60 100 100  60  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  82  81  82 /  70 100 100  60  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: FORT BEND...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
     WASHINGTON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43