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Arctic Blast Brings Record Late Killing Freeze, Severe Agricultural Damage to RGV Feb. 14-20, 2021

In a winter that featured six minor freezes across the Lower Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas ranchlands in December (1st, 17th, and 25th) and January (1st, 13th, and 16th), winter 2020/2021 saved its “worst” for last, with the most intense arctic outbreak to strike the region, in terms of cold temperatures and duration, since December 22-25, 1989. Parts of the region had at least a minor freeze on the 13th through 17th, and again on the 19th and 20th.

The killing freeze occurred from late evening on Valentine’s Day through around noon on February 16th. Across parts of the ranch country, including northern Zapata through northern Kenedy County, temperatures remained at or below freezing for nearly two full days. However, unlike the most recent prolonged freeze (February 2-5, 2011), ambient temperatures fell into the mid teens to lower 20s during the morning of February 15th, and similar minimum temperatures during the morning of February 16th, with all Lower Valley and ranch locations in hard freeze (27°F or lower) for 6 to 16 hours each day, and 12 to 24 hours in total. The combination of wind and ambient temperatures made it "feel like" 0 to 10°F above during the post-daybreak hours of 7 to 9 AM on the 15th - rivaling observed values during the December 22-24, 1989 period. Another Valley-wide light freeze occurred on the 19th, with a heavy frost (along with temperatures in the upper 20s for most) ending the event early on the 20th.

The lateness of the arctic outbreak was unprecedented in the modern record, with only mid February 1895 rivaling 2021 - a time when the Rio Grande Valley’s population was less than one-tenth of what it was today. On the 15th and 16th, new record low temperatures were set everywhere. In locations with periods of record dating back to after 1895, old records were shattered by 8 to 15 degrees, including at some locations with more than 100 years of data! New records were also achieved on the 17th, 19th, and 20th, with smaller departures. Record "low maximum" temperatures were crushed at even greater differences on the 15th, with populated Valley locations breaking the old records by 14 to 20 degrees! Assorted record "low maximum" temperatures were also set prior to the big freeze on the 13th and 14th, when temperatures held in the 30s in most areas.

Summary of Impacts
Life in Texas ground to a crawl, or even a halt, as the electric grid became overwhelmed by the unprecedented late season cold and wintry precipitation. For the Lower Rio Grande Valley, this included an unknown number of water main/water pipe bursts, generator failures that affected water pressure, and other infrastructure damage to be determined. Leading into the killing freeze on the 15th was a period of light freezing rain and sleet, which coated trees and grass but also icing up elevated surfaces, causing more than 50 roads to be temporarily closed. When the value of damage to commercial agriculture and aquaculture, ornamental and nursery plants, and built infrastructure such as pipes, generators, and flooded buildings, the total direct damage count will be well over $1 billion, making it two such events (Hanna, July 2020) in less than a year. When economic loss and crop production loss are factored in, the total could exceed $2 billion for the Rio Grande Valley alone. Final values of each won't be available until later in 2021, and this article will be updated to account as new estimates arrive.

The most costly impacts were to the natural environment. The following items tell the tale (as of mid March, 2021):

  • $380 million (and counting) in agricultural damage, with $230 million to citrus. The 2022 citrus crop was in some jeopardy, as at least 50 percent of the crop had begun the spring floral blooms that typically arrive in mid February. These were wiped out in the freeze, ensuring no fruit.
  • 3.8 million fish killed in the Laguna Madre, with nearly 3.5 million in Lower Laguna Madre alone. This was the most since more than 14 million across coastal Texas in December 1989.
  • More than 10 thousand rescues of “stunned” sea turtles, including at least 7 thousand along the Lower Texas coast, a record since statistics began in 1980
  • Tens of thousands of damaged or destroyed semi-tropical ornamental plants, with damage likely to be in the several hundred million dollar range
  • A distinct halt to tree and flower buds and blooms, with an eerie, barren winter landscape that followed for three weeks.

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