Flooding

Use this tab to monitor latest river levels along the Missouri River near Bismarck/Mandan

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Missouri River at Bismarck	Missouri River at Mandan	Heart River near Mandan	Apple Creek near Menoken

Radar/Photos

USGS Camera on Missouri River near Bismarck

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Latest Hydrologic Outlook

 

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FGUS73 KBIS 221945
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-230345-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
145 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri and James
River basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 25 January
through 25 April, 2026.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the
local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed
forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk
of the river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
As the region is now in the depths of winter, we are starting to see
some of the conditions that will be in place come the spring melt
season. In particular, the soils are now wet and frozen across most
of North Dakota and while there is not a visually impressive
snowpack in either the Missouri or James River basins, the soils are
a concern going forward.

Despite a general lack of snow, the soil conditions have contributed
to a slightly increased risk of Minor flooding at both the Pipestem
Creek near Pingree and the James River near Grace City river gages.
The remaining forecast points in the Missouri and James River basins
are near to below normal based on the current conditions.

...Snowpack Conditions...
While the snow accumulation season had a robust beginning in early
December, most of the Missouri and James River basins have since
lost much of their snowpack to melting and sublimation. However,
with little to no observed runoff, most of this water is believed to
still be either on the countryside, or trapped in the upper few
inches of the soil profile.

Snow-Water Equivalents (SWE) across the Missouri and James River
basins ranges from something below one inch in most areas to maybe
two inches in the very upper James River Basin, and parts of the
Knife River and Apple Creek basins.

...The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston...
The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston are near
normal for this time of year.

...Current Drought Conditions...
There are no current drought designations in the Missouri and James
River basins of North Dakota.

...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands...
Natural wetlands and artificial reservoir are generally within the
long-term normal range for this time of the year. Flood control
features are already at their normal draw-down levels in preparation
for the eventual spring melt season. This suggests that local water
storage will provide a normal amount of flood mitigation come the
spring melt season.

...Soil Conditions...
Soil temperatures are highly varied this year. In places where the
snow largely melted off during the warm period in late December and
early January, below freezing temperatures can go down to around 30
inches, with about 18-24 inches being normal. These soil
temperatures are generally near normal for this time of year. What
is quite a bit more unusual is the soil moisture profiles across the
Missouri and James River basins. Since the early snow fell on warm
soils and subsequently experienced a lot of melting without
generating much observed runoff, that water infiltrated into the
soil and generally remains trapped in the upper four inches of the
ground. This has created a nearly impermeable surface to the ground
and will enhance future runoff from a given melting snowpack or
early spring rains.

Weather Outlook...
The region is in for some very cold weather over the next several
days, but looking at the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather outlooks suggest
the region to return to near normal temperatures with near normal to
slightly above normal precipitation. Looking a little farther into
the future and the full month outlooks for February favor below
normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, near
normal, or below normal precipitation.

Looking even longer term, the 3-month outlooks covering February,
March, and April also favor below normal temperatures but with a
slight favoring of above normal precipitation. These outlooks are
consistent with historical trends for the area when under a La Nina
influenced climate pattern.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026


: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Pipestem
Pingree 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 28 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:James River
Grace City 12.0 14.0 15.0 : 29 16 22 13 15 9
LaMoure 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 13 17 10 8 <5 <5
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 8 <5 5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Breien 10.0 20.0 23.0 : 21 55 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 17 35 10 28 8 13
:Little Muddy River
Williston 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 6 56 <5 32 <5 10
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Medora 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
Watford City 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Manning 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 13 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Spring Creek
Zap 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 22 5 14 <5 8
:Knife River
Hazen 21.0 24.0 25.0 : 12 39 7 25 <5 20
:Heart River
Mandan 27.0 33.0 38.0 : 6 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 33 47 16 46 8 24

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026

Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.4 11.0 11.7 12.3
:James River
Grace City 5.4 6.6 7.5 8.9 13.1 16.0 17.3
LaMoure 7.0 7.0 7.6 8.3 11.0 15.9 17.2
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.5 8.7 10.1
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 2.4 2.7 3.4 4.2 5.2 6.3 6.7
:Cannonball River
Breien 4.4 5.1 5.9 7.6 9.3 13.2 14.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.8 4.9 5.1 7.0 9.7 13.9 18.0
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.4 9.5 11.0
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.3 1.7 2.5 4.3 6.4 11.8 15.2
Medora 2.1 2.3 3.2 5.2 8.8 13.1 15.8
Watford City 7.9 8.2 9.2 11.1 14.0 16.7 19.7
:Knife River
Manning 7.1 7.2 7.5 8.0 9.6 15.1 15.9
:Spring Creek
Zap 5.8 6.0 6.2 7.6 10.1 12.5 18.2
:Knife River
Hazen 3.0 4.2 4.9 8.2 14.8 22.6 24.6
:Heart River
Mandan 12.9 13.3 14.2 16.7 20.0 22.7 27.9
:Apple Creek
Menoken 7.0 7.7 9.8 13.2 15.5 16.8 17.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 01/25/2026 - 04/25/2026

LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
:James River
Grace City 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
LaMoure 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Medora 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Watford City 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
:Knife River
Manning 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:Knife River
Hazen 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
:Heart River
Mandan 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2
:Apple Creek
Menoken 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued by the end of February.


$$

Schlag

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