The potential for heavy snow at higher elevations in the western U.S. will continue for many spots through the weekend. In the meantime, the eastern half of the continental U.S. will transition to above normal temperatures ahead of a pair of cold fronts next week that will bring readings back to closer to normal as we approach Thanksgiving Day. Read More >
...SPRING MELT SEASON UPDATE... This Hydrologic Outlook provides general information on the progression of the spring snowmelt season for western and central North Dakota. ...Southwestern corner of the state, including the Little Missouri, Knife, Heart, and Cannonball rivers and Beaver Creek... Temperatures in the 40s and 50s will continue through Saturday. These temperatures are going to increasingly eat away at the remaining snowpack across these watersheds. Some of the headwaters areas are already running low on snow based on webcams, satellite images, and visual observations. Thus far no significant flooding has been reported, but runoff and downstream river levels will continue to increase through the coming weekend even as the headwaters begin to run out of snow early this weekend. Minor overland flooding cannot be ruled out. In particular, Beaver Creek still has a robust snowpack remaining in Montana and Golden Valley county. ...Northwestern corner of the state, including Long Creek, Little Muddy River, along with the Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers west of Williston... Long Creek has a below normal risk of flooding over the coming days, however, both the Little Muddy and White Earth rivers are expected to rise substantially through the weekend as the remaining snow melts and runoff increases. The same is expected for the other small streams that flow into Lake Sakakawea throughout Mountrail, McLean, Mckenzie, Dunn and Mercer counties. While most are likely to run out of meltwater before they reach problematic levels, high water along these small streams cannot be ruled out. ...Souris (Mouse) River Basin... Relatively low risk of problematic high water exists above Minot on the Souris River. Souris River flood risks rise to near normal from Logan on down through Velva, and to above normal from Towner up through Westhope. However, temperatures in the Souris River Basin will continue to encourage a very modest melt rate and this will also temper runoff coming out of the coulees, the Des Lacs and other tributaries of the Souris. ...Central and South Central North Dakota... Runoff from melting snow is expected to start making its appearance in the small streams east of the Missouri River, this includes the streams of Painted Woods, Burnt, Apple, and Beaver creeks. Thus far the snowmelt in the western part of these streams has been very orderly and without problems. This may change as the melt increasingly affects the eastern parts of these watersheds where there is generally a greater amount of water in the snow. Minor overland flooding and rapid rises in these streams are possible going through the upcoming weekend. However, cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday should help moderate the runoff for a period of time and temper the eventual peak water levels. ...James River Basin... The upper James River basin remains relatively insulated from the warm weather and is not likely to see much runoff for several more days. A robust snowpack below Jamestown is awaiting warm temperatures which will eventually bring a high probability of overland flooding and high water in all of the areas small streams. Partially due to lower temperatures than those of points farther west and partially due to a heavier snowpack, the melt season is not yet in full swing for the James River basin of North Dakota. Runoff may commence over the coming few days, but it will most likely be next week before significant runoff begins.